Thousands attended the People's March on Saturday in Washington, D.C., to protest President-elect Trump's agenda ahead of his inauguration, per multipleoutlets.
Why it matters: The event, some eight years after the earlier Women's March that attracted hundreds of thousands of participants, was crafted with a slightly different approach this year to target Trump policies versus Trumpism as a whole, Axios' Sareen Habeshian writes.
The president-elect has promised mass deportations will be top of his agenda when he takes office on Monday, leaving sanctuary cities such as Chicago bracing for impact.
Zoom in: Trump's deportation plan is one of many issues demonstrators zeroed in on Saturday as they marched from Farragut Square, McPherson Square and Franklin Park to the Lincoln Memorial.
See some of the moments from the march:
Demonstrators near the Lincoln Memorial during The People's March. Photo: Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg via Getty Images
People's March protesters advocate for abortion rights near the Lincoln Memorial. Photo: Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Demonstrators carry anti-war signs during the march. Photo: Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg via Getty Images
One protester passionately waves a flag during The People's March in Washington, D.C. Photo: Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Some carry "Trust Black Women" signs during march. Photo: Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg via Getty Images
People's March demonstrators wear coats and scarves near the Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool ahead of the 60th presidential inauguration. The Monday event promises to be one of the coldest on record, prompting officials to move the ceremony indoors to the Capitol Rotunda. Photo: Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg via Getty Images
It is only the third time MLK Day has fallen on Inauguration Day, with earlier instances being the 1997 inauguration of former President Clinton and the 2013 inauguration of former President Obama.
Trump's inauguration officially kickstarts a second term he promises will bring mass deportations, aggressive tariffs on U.S. imports and the dismantling of the Department of Education.
What his second term likely won't meanis jail time for Trump — the first former and incoming president with a felony conviction — who on Jan. 10 received a no-penalty sentence in a New York hush money case. He was convicted of 34 counts of falsifying business records for his criminal trial last May.
He claimed after the decision that he is "totally innocent" and "did nothing wrong."
What is Trump saying about his inauguration?
The president-elect told NBC News last month the central theme of his inaugural address will be "unity."
"As I said, we're going to be talking about unity, and we're going to be talking about success, making our country safe, keeping people (out) that shouldn't be in our country — we have to do that," he said. "I know it doesn't sound nice, but we have to do that."
When is the inauguration?
Gates will openfor security screening at 5am ET, with musical performances starting at about 9:30am, per a news release fromthe Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies (JCCIC).
Inaugural ceremonies will begin at 11:30am, and the swearing-in ceremony will begin at noon, with Vance going first and Trump to follow.
Where is the inauguration?
The swearing-in ceremony, originally set to take place on the front steps of the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., will be moved inside the Capitol Rotunda due to freezing weather forecasts.
The parade down Pennsylvania Avenue will move to Washington's Capitol One Arena.
Who's attending the inauguration?
More than 220,000 tickets were printed for the event, with former presidents — Barack Obama, George Bush and Bill Clinton — and tech moguls alike set to attend.
Attendees include billionaire Elon Musk, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Apple CEO Tim Cook, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who is co-hosting a black-tie reception Monday night, per the AP.
Country music star Carrie Underwood is set to perform at the inauguration, while the disco group the Village People and musicians Kid Rock and Billy Ray Cyrus were booked for the inaugural rally on Sunday.
Country singer Jason Aldean and the band Rascal Flatts will play at the inaugural ball on Monday.
Yes, but: Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and former first lady Michelle Obama have joined a growing list of officials and legislators who do not plan to attend the inauguration.
What is planned for the day?
Inauguration Daytraditionally starts with a procession, in which the outgoing president joins the president-elect in a walk to the Capitol for swearing-in ceremonies.
The vice president, vice president-elect and their spouses are also present for the procession and escorted by JCCIC members.
The swearing-in ceremonies, including oaths of office, follow and the incoming president gives his inaugural address.
The outgoing president and first lady leave in an honorary departure, and signing ceremonies start followed by an inaugural luncheon and Pass in Review to allow the incoming commander in chief to inspect the troops.
How can you watch?
The inauguration will air live on several major broadcast networks, including ABC, CBS, CNN, CSPAN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC and PBS.
The White House is also planning a live stream of the day's events.
The Martin Luther King, Jr. Center for Nonviolent Social Change will mark MLK Day on Monday with "moral reflection and prophetic response" amid uncertainty as President-elect Trump retakes office.
Why it matters: This year, the King holiday and the presidential inauguration fall on the same day — a paradox that civil rights leaders say underscores the nation's deep divide.
Many see a contrast between a man who preached peace and an incoming president whose rhetoric has deepened racial divides, raising fears that Trump could roll back civil rights gains.
The big picture: Trump's second term follows a campaign filled with racist rhetoric, anti-trans policies, and mass deportation promises—raising concerns about the long-term impact on civil rights and equality.
King Center officials and the King family aim to use MLK Day to remind Americans of their responsibility for human rights and poverty action.
Zoom in: Bishop William J. Barber, II, President & Sr. Lecturer of Repairers of the Breach, will offer a keynote sermon on Monday at the 40th Annual King Holiday Observance Commemorative Service.
The service is at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta and will be live-streamed on The King Center's website.
Barber tells Axios he will reflect on how this overlap is a critical moment for people of faith and moral conviction to unite and address the deep injustices in our nation.
"I think that we have to see this past election, not so much as an election that Trump won, but an election that the progressives and others lost."
"If there was a serious outreach to poor and low-wage people, we wouldn't be in the situation we're in now."
State of play: Trump has vowed to roll back programs to promote diversity and inclusion in the federal government.
Some advocates are pushing him to overturn a key executive order from 60 years ago by President Lyndon Johnson, which addresses discrimination among federal contractors.
The intrigue: All eyes are on Trump's message and its implications for the future.
Zoom out: On the night of the election, Trump said, "We are going to help our country heal," leaving behind "divisions." Marc H. Morial, president of the National Urban League, said he will be watching to see if that was "just rhetoric or he meant it."
"The ball is in the president's court," he said. "I will be watching and preparing for whatever it is. He has to make that determination."
Regardless, Derrick Johnson, CEO of the NAACP, remains resolute as the nation enters this new chapter, telling Axios: "Our mission stays the same. We fight to ensure democracy works for all and that every citizen is afforded equal protection."
Context: The children of Martin Luther King Jr. and Coretta Scott King urge Americans to reflect on his legacy and the nation's state as the King holiday coincides with the presidential inauguration.
"l certainly understand the desire to tune out rhetoric, ideology, and policies with which we passionately disagree and which contradict the spirit of the Beloved Community," she wrote on Instagram.
Martin Luther King III told Axios the holiday is "a moment to renew and ask ourselves whether we've achieved the dream my parents envisioned."
"The truth is, we have not," he said. "Martin and Coretta King were not just dreamers — they were doers. It's time for us to step up."
His wife, Arndrea Waters King, added: "The inauguration and holiday, falling so close together, give us time for inner reflection. It's an opportunity to rededicate ourselves to the vision we want to see for America."
Why it matters:The Supreme Court decided on Friday to uphold a law that could ban the video app if the China-based ByteDance parent company doesn't land a non-Chinese buyer by Sunday.
What he's saying: "The 90-day extension is something that will be most likely done, because it's appropriate," Trump told NBC News.
Yes, but: He hasn't made a final decision, calling it a "very big situation."
The president-elect added that he'll "probably announce" any action on Monday.
The White House said in a statement on FridayPresident Biden's position on the matter is that "TikTok should remain available to Americans, but simply under American ownership or other ownership that addresses the national security concerns identified by Congress in developing this law."
Data: Milken Institute; Table: Jacque Schrag/Axios. Editor's note: This chart has been corrected to reflect that the rankings include metro areas with at least 275,000 residents (not 250,000).
Raleigh, North Carolina; Ogden, Utah and Salt Lake City, Utah are this year's best-performing big cities, according to an annual report ranking metros across a range of economic factors.
Why it matters: The Milken Institute's yearly rankings highlight U.S. cities with job growth, affordable housing, economic equality and other big draws.
The big picture: Cities have largely emerged from the tumultuous times of the COVID-19 pandemic and "remain at the center of economic activity," as the report puts it.
Driving the news: Raleigh moved up to the top spot this year after coming second in 2024 and third in 2023.
"It's been a long time coming for Raleigh, which has performed extremely well in our rankings for several years, without ever quite landing on top before this year," reads the report, which credits the city's job and wage growth and "thriving high-tech sector."
Utah is also a big winner, with Ogden and Salt Lake City taking the other two podium spots.
"Ogden's impressive rise from last year's ranking" — up 24 places — "stems from big improvements in its recent labor market performance."
Salt Lake, meanwhile, combines "a robust job market, a growing high-tech sector, and widespread access to economic opportunities."
Rounding out the top 10: Huntsville, Alabama; Colorado Springs, Colorado; Austin, Texas; Fayetteville, Arkansas; Olympia, Washington; Palm Bay, Florida and Boise City, Idaho.
Zoom in: Some smaller cities are growing thanks to lower housing costs and better economic equality, per the report, which highlights job and wage growth in places like St. George, Utah (near Zion National Park) and Auburn, Alabama.
How it works: The annual rankings from Milken — a nonpartisan, nonprofit think tank — are based on its Best Performing Cities index, which takes into account cities' labor markets, tech industry growth and economic access.
Reality check: The report doesn't explicitly look at other quality-of-life factors people may consider when picking a place to live, like traffic congestion, public transit access, park space, etc.
The bottom line: If you're searching for a booming city that isn't New York, Chicago or L.A., give this list a look.
President-elect Trump launched his own cryptocurrency overnight and swiftly appeared to make more than $25 billion on paper for himself and his companies.
Why it matters: The stunning launch of $TRUMP caught the entire industry off-guard, and speaks to both his personal influence and the ascendancy of cryptocurrency in his administration.
It also speaks to the nature of the crypto industry that someone could have $25 billion worth of something that literally did not exist 24 hours previously.
Catch up quick: Friday night, while Trump was reportedly hosting a "Crypto Ball" for the industry in Washington, the president-elect launched his own meme-linked cryptocurrency.
His website bills it as "the only official Trump meme."
By the numbers: According to CoinGecko price data, $TRUMP rose more than 600% overnight and was trading just over $32 as of 11 a.m. ET Saturday.
That gives the coin a fully diluted market capitalization just north of $32 billion.
The meme website says 80% of the supply is held by Trump Organization affiliate CIC Digital, and a CIC co-owned entity called Fight Fight Fight LLC. ("Fight fight fight" is what Trump said after being shot at a rally in July.)
They are subject to a three-year unlocking schedule, which means they cannot dump all of their holdings at once.
The intrigue: Trump has warmly embraced cryptocurrency as a concept and an industry, to the point that he is reportedly considering designating it a "national priority" as soon as this week, per Bloomberg.
💭 Brady's thought bubble: No politician has ever given their supporters a way to monetize that support -- until now.
This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.
Jake Sullivan — with three days left as White House national security adviser, with wide access to the world's secrets — called us to deliver a chilling, "catastrophic" warning for America and the incoming administration:
The next few years will determine whether artificial intelligence leads to catastrophe — and whether China or America prevails in the AI arms race.
Why it matters: Sullivan said in our phone interview that unlike previous dramatic technology advancements (atomic weapons, space, the internet), AI development sits outside of government and security clearances, and in the hands of private companies with the power of nation-states.
Underscoring the gravity of his message, Sullivan spoke with an urgency and directness that were rarely heard during his decade-plus in public life.
Somehow, government will have to join forces with these companies to nurture and protect America's early AI edge, and shape the global rules for using potentially God-like powers, he says.
U.S. failure to get this right, Sullivan warns, could be "dramatic, and dramatically negative — to include the democratization of extremely powerful and lethal weapons; massive disruption and dislocation of jobs; an avalanche of misinformation."
Staying ahead in the AI arms race makes the Manhattan Project during World War II seem tiny, and conventional national security debates small. It's potentially existential with implications for every nation and company.
To distill Sullivan: America must quickly perfect a technology that many believe will be smarter and more capable than humans. We need to do this without decimating U.S. jobs, and inadvertently unleashing something with capabilities we didn't anticipate or prepare for. We need to both beat China on the technology and in shaping and setting global usage and monitoring of it, so bad actors don't use it catastrophically. Oh, and it can only be done with unprecedented government-private sector collaboration — and probably difficult, but vital, cooperation with China.
"There's going to have to be a new model of relationship because of just the sheer capability in the hands of a private actor," Sullivan says.
"What exactly that model looks like, whether it takes more the form of guardrails and regulation, and some forms of support from the government —or whether it involves something more ambitious than that — I will tell you that some of the smartest people I know who sit at the intersection of policy and technology are working through the answer to that question right now."
This is beyond uncharted waters. It's an unexplored galaxy — "a new frontier," in his words. And one, he warns, where progress routinely exceeds projections in advancement. Progress is now pulsing in months, not years.
Between the lines: Sullivan leaves government believing this can be done well — and wants to work on this very problem in the private sector.
"I personally am not an AI doomer," he says. "I am a person who believes that we can seize the opportunities of AI. But to do so, we've got to manage the downside risks, and we have to be clear-eyed and real about those risks."
The big picture: There's no person we know in a position of power in AI or governance who doesn't share Sullivan's broad belief in the stakes ahead.
Regardless of what was said in public, every background conversation we had with President Biden's high command came back to China. Yes, they had concerns about the ethics, misinformation and job loss of AI. They talked about that. But they were unusually blunt in private: Every move, every risk was calculated to keep China from beating us to the AI punch. Nothing else matters, they basically said.
That said, AI is like the climate: America could do everything right — but if China refuses to do the same, the problem persists and metastasizes fast. Sullivan said Trump, like Biden, should try to work with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on a global AI framework, much like the world did with nuclear weapons.
There won't be one winner in this AI race. Both China and the U.S. are going to have very advanced AI. There'll be tons of open-source AI that many other nations will build on, too. Once one country has made a huge advance, others will match it soon after. What they can't get from their own research or work, they'll get from hacking and spying. (It didn't take long for Russia to match the A-bomb and then the H-bomb.)
Marc Andreessen, who's intimately involved in the Trump transition and AI policy, told Bari Weiss of The Free Press his discussions with the Biden administration this past year were "absolutely horrifying," and said he feared the officials might strangle AI startups if left in power. His chief concern: Biden would assert government control by keeping AI power in the hands of a few big players, suffocating innovation.
Sullivan says a conversation he had with Andreessen struck a very different tone.
"The point he was trying to register with me, which I thought was actually a very fair point, is: I think about downside risk; that's my job," Sullivan told us. "His point was: It should also be my job as national security adviser to think about how AI applications running on American rails globally is better than AI applications running on some other country's rails globally."
What's next: Trump seems to be full speed ahead on AI development. Unlike Biden, he plans to work in deep partnership with AI and tech CEOs at a very personal level. Biden talked to some tech CEOs; Trump is letting them help staff his government. The MAGA-tech merger is among the most important shifts of the past year.
The super-VIP section of Monday's inauguration will be one for a time capsule: Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Tim Cook, Sam Altman, Sundar Pichai and Mark Zuckerberg — who's attending his first inauguration, and is co-hosting a black-tie reception Monday night. The godfathers of tech are all desperate for access, a say, a partnership.
A fight might await: Steve Bannon and other MAGA originals believe AI is evil at scale — a job-killer for the very people who elected Trump. But for now, Bannon is a fairly lonely voice shouting against AI velocity. Trump and the AI gods hold the stage.
The bottom line: There's a reason our Behind the Curtain column writes obsessively about AI and its collision with government. We believe, based on conversations with AI's creators and experts, this dynamic will reshape politics, business and culture beyond most imaginations.
Treasury secretary Janet Yellen, in one of her final major acts in office, warned Congress late Friday that the Treasury will need to begin "extraordinary measures" on Tuesday to avoid hitting the debt limit.
Why it matters: The first full day of the Trump 2.0 presidency will see the government scrambling to move money around, increasing the urgency of the problem he's demanded Congress address.
Driving the news: Yellen warned Congress about three weeks ago that measures would be necessary sometime this month unless they acted to raise or suspend the debt ceiling.
On Friday, she indicated those measures were now necessary as of Jan. 21.
The debt limit was suspended by legislation in 2023, but went back into effect on Jan. 1 of this year.
President-elect Trump wants the debt limit abolished entirely, but equally wanted that done before he took office.
Zoom in: Yellen outlined a variety of steps the Treasury would take, including freezing certain investment activities for civil service and postal retiree benefits and suspending debt issuance.
What she's saying: "The debt limit does not authorize new spending, but it creates a risk that the federal government might not be able to finance its existing legal obligations that Congresses and Presidents of both parties have made in the past," she wrote.
"I respectfully urge Congress to act promptly to protect the full faith and credit of the United States."
Between the lines: The Treasury deploying a toolkit of extraordinary measures to avoid the debt ceiling is nothing new.
But every time it happens, it amplifies the long-running debate and raises the pressure on Congress to act.
The intrigue: House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said this week he wants to raise the limit through the end of Trump's presidency, floating the prospect of tying it to LA wildfire aid.
Because so many House Republicans are fundamentally opposed to raising or eliminating the debt limit, that may require Johnson to make a deal with Democrats to get it passed - and they are vehemently opposed to conditioning fire aid.
Years of debate, months of procrastination and weeks of panic have brought the U.S. to the brink of banning TikTok — a bipartisan achievement that top politicians suddenly want nothing to do with.
Why it matters: On the eve of his inauguration, President-elect Trump is facing an enormous challenge to his popularity, his executive power and his word. He has vowed to save TikTok — but failed to explain how he can do so without violating U.S. law.
The latest: The Supreme Court on Friday upheld the law passed by Congress last year that forces Chinese parent company ByteDance to divest from TikTok by Jan. 19, or else face a ban in the U.S.
The decision was unanimous, with all nine justices shrugging off a brief from Trump asking the court to delay the ban so that his administration could "pursue a negotiated resolution."
President Biden, who signed the TikTok bill into law, will not enforce the ban — saying in a statement Friday that "actions to implement the law simply must fall" to the Trump administration, given the timing.
TikTok, meanwhile, said the app "will be forced to go dark" on Sunday unless the Biden administration "immediately provides a definitive statement to satisfy the most critical service providers assuring non-enforcement."
State of play: Trump is now in a serious bind.
It was his administration that spearheaded the initial push to ban TikTok via executive order in 2020, citing the national security threat posed by Beijing's potential influence over the app and its user data.
Trump became a defender of TikTok once he realized how powerful it could be as a campaign messaging tool, especially among young people.
Now, for many of the platform's 170 million American users, Trump's first day in office threatens to be overshadowed by — or worse, forever tied to — the disappearance of TikTok from app stores.
Screenshot via Truth Social
What to watch: Trump is considering an executive order delaying enforcement of the TikTok ban to give the administration time to find a U.S. buyer, despite ByteDance's refusal to sell for the past eight months.
It's unclear how the executive order could bypass the letter of the law, and app stores run by Google and Apple could face fines and liability risk if they ignore the Supreme Court's ruling.
The intrigue: One of the biggest obstacles to Trump's salvation mission is his own party.
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), the chair of the Intelligence Committee, blocked Democrats' attempt to extend the deadline for the ban on Thursday.
"Let me be crystal clear: there will be no extensions, no concessions, and no compromises for TikTok," Cotton said, echoing the hawkish language typical of most Republicans before Trump's change of heart.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Trump's nominee for secretary of state, was among the very first lawmakers to raise the alarm about TikTok in October 2019 — though he has indicated he will now defer to Trump.
Between the lines: In many ways, the dynamics around banning TikTok are a microcosm of the broader debate over the U.S.-China competition.
"Decoupling" the two economies may sound like the shrewd national security approach, but the practical consequences — and potential for public backlash — are staggering.
In the days leading up to the ban, hundreds of thousands of self-described "TikTok refugees" have downloaded the Chinese app RedNote — its name believed to be a reference to Mao Ze Dong's "Little Red Book."
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman revealed Friday that Democratic senators had sent him a letter alleging "he has a clear and direct interest in obtaining favors" from Donald Trump and is using his donations "to cozy up" to the incoming administration to avoid regulatory scrutiny.
Why it matters: Altman was one of several tech titans who donated $1 million to Trump's inauguration. In a statement to Axios in response to the senators' letter, an OpenAI spokesperson said: "Sam believes that President Trump will lead our country during a pivotal moment for AI and American innovation, and looks forward to working with him and his administration."
Altman posted the letter on X, adding: "funny, they never sent me one of these for contributing to democrats."
Driving the news: The letter from Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) stated that "million-dollar gifts" to Trump's inaugural fund by Altman and tech firms like Google, Meta, Microsoft and Uber, "raise questions about corruption and the influence of corporate money" on the Trump administration.
Altman was one of a few tech CEOs who donated personally, rather than via their companies. Apple CEO Tim Cook did the same, as Axios scooped.
Representatives for Warren and Bennet didn't immediately respond to requests for comment.
What they're saying: In the letter, lawmakers said that "the industry's efforts suggest that Big Tech companies are trying to curry favor and skirt the rules."
The letter includes a list of questions, with a Jan. 25 deadline for Altman to respond. They include: "What is your rationale for these contributions?" and "When and under what circumstances did your company decide to make these contributions to the Trump inaugural fund?"
In his response, Altman noted that he'd made a personal contribution and thus "i am confused about the questions given that my company did not make a decision."
Flashback: Altman told Fox News in December he would donate $1 million to Trump's inaugural fund, saying he was "eager to support" Trump's efforts to "lead our country into the age of AI."
He's changed his tune since 2016, when he stated in a post on X that "I am voting against Trump" as "he is unfit to be President and would be a threat to national security."
Between the lines: Trump has vowed to repeal President Biden's AI executive order from 2023 that outlined the steps companies and the government will be directed to take to foster responsible AI.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune notched his first big win Friday by clearing the filibuster on the Laken Riley Act. It'll almost certainly pass Monday with ease.
Why it matters: It's a specific, popular, bipartisan bill. But it also hands Thune a chance to prove he's serious about promises made during the GOP leadership election.
Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) told Axios: "What we can feel good about is we're having a lot more conversations about what we're doing." Scott ran against Thune for leader.
Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) told Axios that Thune "says what he means and means what he says when he talks about having a more open amendment process." Lee wants a more open process and backed Scott in November.
Zoom in: Thune spent dayshaggling with Minority Leader Chuck Schumer over the bill, which requires ICE to detain immigrants charged with or convicted of theft.
Thune and Schumer agreed Wednesday to allow two votes on amendments. One passed, which would require ICE to detain immigrants who attack law enforcement.
Senators will vote Monday on another amendment from Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) that would add to the detention list immigrants who commit crimes resulting in death or bodily injury. It's likely to pass.
Because of the change, the House will have to pass the bill again before it reaches President-elect Trump's desk.
Zoom out: Nearly a quarter of Senate Dems proved they're willing to help break a filibuster for GOP priorities.
Schumer privately told Democrats they were free to engage with the GOP on the bill, before he publicly opposed it once it was clear that substantive changes weren't happening.
His defectors included new Sens. Ruben Gallego of Arizona and Elissa Slotkin of Michigan.
Schumer also lost Georgia's Jon Ossoff, Arizona's Mark Kelly, Michigan's Gary Peters, Nevada's Catherine Cortez Masto and Jacky Rosen, and New Hampshire's Maggie Hassan and Jeanne Shaheen.
Why it matters: The procedural and budgetary gambit will free Republicans from the burden of finding the $4 trillion in spending cuts. But deficit hawks, including member of the House Freedom Caucus, haven't completely signed off on the novel approach.
Zoom in: Scott Bessent, Trump's nominee for Treasury secretary, has privately indicated to senators that he's sympathetic to their view that the cost of extending the 2017 tax cuts should be zero, according to people familiar with the matter.
By the numbers: Under a "current law baseline," extending Trump's personal and estate tax cuts will cost $4 trillion over 10 years.
The tax cuts expire at the end of 2025, and the Congressional Budget Office has to score how much revenue the Treasury will miss if Congress passes it for another 10 years.
But what if Congress runs the numbers from a different starting point, and considers "current policy"?
Current policy has the tax cuts in place (at least until the end of the year). Among friends, say Republicans, what if we use current policy as the baseline? Then extending the tax cuts will cost … zero.
Between the lines: This fall, while still in the minority, Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) started talking about using a current policy approach.
That strategy appears to be gaining momentum, especially in the Senate. House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) is also on board.
The two Budget Committee chairs, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) haven't tipped their hands on their preferred approach.
The bottom line: Republicans are seizing on the "current policy" paradigm in 2025, but plenty of Obama officials (including Jeff Zients, President Biden's current chief of staff) were for it in 2013.
President-elect Trump sent shockwaves through Capitol Hill on Friday by announcing that his inaugural ceremonies will take place indoors, leaving members of Congress guessing about their plans.
Why it matters: Monday's proceedings will now take place in the Capitol rotunda — an extremely limited space — meaning many lawmakers will likely not be able to attend.
When Ronald Reagan was inaugurated in the rotunda in 1985, only 96 people were invited, according to contemporaneous reports.
That's significantly fewer than the 435 House members and 100 senators — not to mention Trump's family members, Cabinet and staff appointees, Supreme Court justices and other invited VIPs.
Driving the news: Trump wrote in a post on his social media app Truth Social that there is an "Arctic blast sweeping the Country" that "could take temperatures into severe record lows" in Washington, D.C. on Jan. 20.
"Therefore, I have ordered the Inauguration Address, in addition to prayers and other speeches, to be delivered in the United States Capitol Rotunda," he said.
The Capital One Arena, a downtown D.C. stadium with a capacity of 20,000, will screen the swearing-in live and host the presidential parade, Trump said.
What we're hearing: Lawmakers and staffers told Axios that the move to the rotunda throws their plans into serious doubt.
Several House members who had planned to attend said Friday afternoon that they were trying to get more information.
"We are still trying to figure out what this announcement means," said Rep. Becca Balint (D-Vt.), noting that there is "definitely not enough room" in the rotunda.
Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas) acknowledged he will likely not be in the rotunda but may be at the arena, telling Axios: "I have 46 guests attending the Inauguration and I will remain with them throughout."
Between the lines: The move comes as a relief for some Democrats who had been experiencing heartburn over whether to attend the inaugural ceremony of a man they revile.
Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), who had not decided whether to go, told Axios: "Reminds me of Aaron Burr's rejoinder to Ben Franklin's admonition to 'never put off until tomorrow that which you can do or decide today.'"
"Burr said, 'Never decide today that which you can put off until tomorrow because something may happen in the meantime to make you regret your premature action.'"
President-elect Trump's inaugural ceremony Mondaywill take place inside the Capitol Rotunda due to the weather forecast in Washington, D.C., he posted on Truth Social.
The big picture: Ronald Reagan's 1985 presidential swearing-in was the last to move indoors because of cold temperatures.
Driving the news: Trump wrote on Truth Social that the decision to adjust the ceremony's plans was a safety consideration.
"I don't want to see people hurt, or injured, in any way," Trump wrote, noting that the temperature lows could pose "dangerous conditions" for law enforcement personnel and spectators.
Instead, Trump said he had ordered much of the proceedings moved to the Capitol Rotunda and that Washington, D.C.'s Capital One Arena would be opened to spectators to watch the ceremony live.
Trump added that he would join the crowd at the arena after his swearing-in.
President Biden on Friday shortened the sentences of nearly 2,500 people convicted of nonviolent drug offenses — setting a record in a single presidential term for the most pardons and sentence commutations.
Why it matters: Public attitude on criminal justice and prosecutions for non-violent crimes has shifted dramatically in recent decades. While much of Biden's legacy is set to be eroded by President-elect Trump, his use of presidential clemency power could be remembered.
Context: The thousands pardoned on Friday were "serving disproportionately long sentences compared to the sentences they would receive today," Biden's statement said.
In 2022, Attorney General Merrick Garland issued a memo to federal prosecutors to end sentencing disparities that led to the disproportionate incarceration of Black people in cases involving crack and powder cocaine.
State of play: After Biden in a shocking move pardoned his son Hunter last year following his conviction on federal gun charges, Democratic and Republican lawmakers re-upped pardon requests.
The White House is reportedly considering "preemptive pardons" to current and former public officials who could be targeted by President-elect Trump's administration, like former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and Anthony Fauci.
As of early December, Biden had issued 26 pardons, a record low, and commuted 135 sentences.
Later that month, he commuted the sentences of 1,500 Americans in a single-day record.
What they're saying: Criminal justice advocacy organizations applauded Biden's action on Friday.
"Cruel and excessive prison sentences that have overwhelmingly harmed Black communities have been the cornerstone of federal drug policy for generations," Kara Gotsch, executive director of the Sentencing Project, said in a statement.
"Today's commutations from President Biden are a welcome relief for countless families who have endured punishments for their loved ones that far exceed their utility."
"Too often, our criminal justice reforms only apply to the law going forward, leaving behind the very people and injustices that moved us to change," said a statement from FWD.us, an immigration and criminal justice reform organization.
Zoom out: Presidents tend to hand out more pardons during their final weeksin office.
President-elect Trump, during his first term, quadrupled his number of pardons in his last few weeks in office, including to some allies, like his former chief adviser Steve Bannon.
Biden's Friday statement said he'd continue to review additional commutations and pardons.
President Biden on Friday said he believes the Equal Rights Amendment is the "law of the land" as the U.S. Constitution's 28th Amendment — though with only days left in his term, his power on the issue is not immediately clear.
Why it matters: The measure proposed more than a century ago would guarantee equal rights, legally, regardless of sex. The president claims it has met the standards to become part of the constitution, which would require the National Archivist to formally publish or certify it.
The Biden administration did not immediately respond to Axios' request.
Last month, the U.S. Archivist Colleen Shogan said that the ERA could not be certified because of "established legal, judicial and procedural decisions" and called on new action from Congress.
"The underlying legal and procedural issues have not changed," a spokesperson for the National Archives said in a statement to Axios.
What he's saying: "I have supported the Equal Rights Amendment for more than 50 years, and I have long been clear that no one should be discriminated against based on their sex," Biden said in a Friday statement.
"We, as a nation, must affirm and protect women's full equality once and for all."
The American Bar Association said the amendment has passed all hurdles to be formally added to the Constitution, Biden said on Friday.
Context: Reproductive rights organizations and advocates have backed the ERA to establish sexual health protections as GOP states limit abortion access, and especially after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022.
In 2020, Virginia became the 38th state to ratify the measure. Proposed amendments become part of the Constitution after being ratified by at least 38 states.,
Between the lines: Just before Virginia ratified the amendment, the Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel during President-elect Trump's first term issued a memo claiming it considered the ERA expired since a 1982 ratification deadline was missed.
The same office affirmed that decision in 2022 in another opinion.
Congress first passed the amendment in 1972 with a 7-year ratification deadline in its preamble (The deadline was extended by three years). By 1982, only 35 states had ratified the ERA.
President Biden plans to write a book after leaving office, the White House confirmed to Axios, giving him an opportunity to try and shape the narrative around his presidency and the tumultuous weeks leading to his historic withdrawal from the 2024 race.
Why it matters: There's a glut of reporting coming out on Biden's fateful decision to run again in 2024 and ultimately step aside after his disastrous debate with President-elect Trump — most of it unflattering to the 82-year-old president.
Biden's own version of those events has hardly registered, beyond his contentious claims that he could have beaten Trump.
If the book project comes to fruition, it will be a chance for Biden to lay out, in full, his views on what he accomplished and why he handled the 2024 cycle the way he did.
NBC News first reported that Biden was planning a book. A White House spokesperson confirmed the plans but did not provide additional details.
Between the lines: Biden was remarkably successful at holding his party together and passing consequential legislation during most of his term. He continues to contend that history will look kindly upon his four years in office.
But he's leaving under a cloud, and handing power back to the man he vanquished in 2020 and condemned as a danger to American democracy.
A widespread belief has set in among Democrats that by clinging on for too long, Biden helped doom his party — and the country — to a second Trump presidency.
Biden, his family members, and some of his longtime aides disagree. He told USA Today last week that he still thinks he would have beaten Trump, while conceding he's not certain he could have handled the rigors of the presidency for four more years given his age.
The big picture: The court unanimously rejected TikTok's claims that the law violates the First Amendment.
The wildly popular app was on course to disappear for U.S. users as soon as Sunday, but President-elect Trump has said he would delay enforcement of that ban. TikTok's long-term future is still unclear.
Driving the news: The bipartisan law President Biden signed in April requires ByteDance, TikTok's Chinese parent company, to either sell TikTok or shutter it inside the U.S. on Jan. 19.
The justices said that because the primary responsibility falls on a foreign company, and because all of the speech that's currently on TikTok could still be there under new ownership, the First Amendment does not apply.
What's next: Trump had asked the court not to let the ban take effect as scheduled, one day before his inauguration.
Finding a way to keep TikTok alive may not seem like an emergency, but the app's sheer popularity will make it a top concern in the early days of Trump's new term.
Only a few potential buyers could put together enough money to even make a serious offer for the dominant social-media platform. Bloomberg reported that the Chinese government was considering selling TikTok to Elon Musk, though ByteDance flatly denied that.
But all sale discussions are in their early stages — in the months since the law took effect, ByteDance and TikTok have been more focused on avoiding the Jan. 19 deadline than finding a way to comply with it.
President-elect Trump spoke Friday with Chinese President Xi Jinping by phone just days before the U.S. presidential inauguration.
Why it matters: Trump said last month he exchanged messages with Xi after winning the election but didn't confirm they spoke. The president-elect has promised to implement aggressive tariffs on imports from China and could also be forced to determine the fate of TikTok upon taking office.
The call took place several hours after the Chinese foreign ministry announced that Xi is sending his vice president Han Zheng to Washington, D.C., to attend the inaugural ceremony Monday.
President Biden has said he won't enforce the TikTok ban that's supposed to take effect Sunday, the AP reported.
According to the Chinese state news agency, Trump requested the call.
What they're saying: "I just spoke to Chairman Xi Jinping of China. The call was a very good one for both China and the U.S.A. It is my expectation that we will solve many problems together, and starting immediately," Trump said in a post on his truth Social account.
He said they discussed balancing trade, fentanyl, TikTok and "many other subjects."
"President Xi and I will do everything possible to make the World more peaceful and safe!" Trump added.
Per the Chinese state news agency, Xi told Trump: "China and the U.S. have extensive common interests and broad space for cooperation. They can become partners and friends, achieve mutual success, prosper together, and benefit both countries and the world."
Trump and Xi discussed Taiwan, Ukraine and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Xi asked Trump to handle the Taiwan issue "with caution."
It reported Trump told Xi he looks forward to meeting him "as soon as possible."
State of play: According to a bipartisan law passed last year, the Chinese-owned TikTok needs to be sold to an American company or shut down operations in the U.S. by Jan. 19, due to national security concerns.
Trump has said he wants to take measures to "preserve" the wildly popular app in the U.S. despite the new law, his incoming national security adviser, Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.), said Thursday.
Trump asked the Supreme Court last month to pause the TikTok ban, cementing his flip-flopping after he advocated to ban the app during his first term.
The high court is set to rule as soon as Friday on whether to uphold the law, which justices seemed inclined to do during oral arguments last week.
Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional developments.
Hostages and Palestinian prisoners held in Gaza will be released on Sunday following Israeli cabinet approval Friday of a hostage and ceasefire deal.
Why it matters: Cabinet approval, after seven hours of deliberations, was the final hurdle before the deal could be implemented, beyond a 24-hour period to allow for legal challenges.
When it came time to vote, 24 ministers voted in favor and 8 ministers voted against, an Israeli cabinet member told Axios.
The Qatari government and the IDF announced the ceasefire will begin on Sunday 8:30am local time (1:30am ET).
Under Israeli law, Palestinian prisoners can't be released from prison without a government vote and a 24-hour period for the public to appeal to the courts.
Zoom in: The IDF has already started redeploying some forces in Gaza moving them outside on the enclave or east towards the buffer zone on the Gaza-Israel border ahead of the ceasefire.
The release of hostages and Palestinian prisoners will begin on Sunday, 4pm local time (9am ET), the Israeli prime minister's office said.
Three Israeli women being held as hostages will be released by Hamas and 90 Palestinian women and teenagers will be released from Israeli prisons.
Yes, but: An Israeli official told Axios on Saturday that Hamas has not yet delivered the list of the three women.
"Qatar's prime minister must ensure that Hamas abides by the agreement and provides the list of the hostages today," the official said.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel will not move forward with the hostage and ceasefire deal until we receive the list of hostages to be released, as agreed.
"Israel will not tolerate violations of the agreement. The sole responsibility is on Hamas," Netanyahu said.
Context: To get to a ceasefire deal, a cabinet meeting was moved up from Saturday night at the urging of the director of Israel's Shin Bet intelligence agency, Ronen Bar, according to an Israeli official.
By the numbers: According to the Israeli cabinet decision, 33 Israeli hostages will be released over 42 days of ceasefire.
In return Israel will release 737 Palestinian prisoners and detainees in addition to 1167 Palestinians from Gaza who were not involved in the October 7 attack but have been detained by the IDF in Gaza since October 8.
According to the Israeli cabinet decision, Palestinian prisoners who were convicted of murder, production of weapons that were used for murder or initiated an attack that resulted in murder will be released only to Gaza or abroad and will not be allowed to go back to the West Bank or to Israel for at least three years.
During the cabinet decision the heads of the Israeli intelligence services and the IDF said they support the deal, Israeli national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said.
Israeli foreign minister Gideon Saar and Minister for strategic affairs Ron Dermer told the cabinet that implementing the deal would improve relations with the U.S. — it will end relations with the Biden administration on a positive note and start relations with the Trump administration on the right foot, Saar told Axios.
Driving the news: The Israeli security cabinet convened on Friday morning local time, ahead of the full cabinet meeting, and was briefed on the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal.
Netanyahu said during the meeting that he received guarantees from both the Biden administration and the Trump administration that if negotiations over the second phase of the ceasefire and hostage deal fail, and Israel's security demands are not met, Israel would be able to resume the war in Gaza with U.S. backing, an Netanyahu aide tells Axios.
Behind the scenes: Netanyahu's remarks at the security cabinet meeting came after ultranationalist Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said he and the cabinet members from his party would vote against the deal but not leave Netanyahu's coalition.
Sources in Smotrich's party claimed he received assurances from Netanyahu that the war would resume after the initial 42-day ceasefire and the humanitarian aid delivery system for Gaza would be changed to prevent Hamas from controlling the aid.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu's ultranationalist minister of national security, Itamar Ben Gvir, held a press conference on Thursday and announced he would resign and his party would leave the coalition if the deal was approved. He said he would be ready to rejoin the coalition if Israel were to resume fighting in Gaza after the 42-day ceasefire in the first phase of the deal.
Both Smotrich and Ben Gvir voted against the deal at the security cabinet meeting, but it still passed easily.
State of play: Ahead of the cabinet meeting Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz signed an order to release all Israeli settlers who were under administrative detention for allegedly committing and planning terror attacks against Palestinians.
An Israeli security official who was alarmed by the decision said Katz made it for domestic political considerations and without consultation with the Shin Bet.
"The decision gives backwind for terrorism and will destabilize the security situation in the West Bank," the official warned.
