President-elect Trump's pick to lead the Energy Department Chris Wright walked a fine line Wednesday as he called climate change "a real and global phenomenon" but remained skeptical during his U.S. Senate confirmation hearing.

Why it matters: Wright, the CEO of fracking company Liberty Energy, looked to temper his tone but stood by prior statements criticizing "climate zealots" and calling climate change not a pressing concern.

Driving the news: In his opening statement, Wright outlined three goals in front of the Energy and Natural Resource Committee if confirmed as energy secretary.

• He emphasized the importance of domestic energy production and the need to "lead the world in innovation and technology." And he called the resiliency of the nation's electrical grid "the most urgent energy issue today."
• In addition, he acknowledged that the combustion of hydrocarbons is contributing to climate change.

The intrigue: Colorado's U.S. Sen. John Hickenlooper, a Democrat on the committee, introduced Wright, a longtime acquaintance, and announced his support for Trump's nomination.

• Hickenlooper called him a "scientist who is open to discussion," praising Wright's care for energy poverty issues and backing of a variety of energy technologies.
• A spokesperson for U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet, a Democrat, said the senator has not decided how he will vote on Wright's confirmation.

The big picture: Democrats, who consider it an existential threat, sharply criticized Wright on climate change while Republicans touted his support for nuclear energy and the oil and gas industry.

Zoom in: The tensest moment came when U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-California) pressed Wright on his prior comments about wildfires and climate change in the shadow of the deadly fires in southern California.

• Padilla quoted a prior Wright social media post saying: "the hype over wildfires is just hype to justify more improvement from bad government policies."

Wright said he stood by his comments but expressed sorrow about the devastation left by the Los Angeles area fires.

• "Tell that to the families of the more than dozen lost in these fires and counting," Padilla said in return.

Go deeper with Axios Pro

Documents obtained by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) show that the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement is considering proposals to expand its immigration detention capacity in at least eight states.

Why it matters: The proposals going back to September show that the Biden administration was preparing for its own expanded detention of immigrants while Democrats attacked President-elect Trump for his mass deportation plan.

The big picture: The plans could give Trump a head start to launch the largest mass deportation effort in U.S. history once he takes office since detention is the most costly and labor-intensive piece of deportation.

Zoom in: The ACLU said Wednesday that documents obtained through an open records request show proposals sought expansion of detention capacity in Michigan, California, Kansas, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, Texas, and Washington state.

• They reveal that private prison corporations — and other companies that provide services to build temporary facilities, monitor compliance and staff facilities — submitted proposals for expanded immigration detention in response to ICE's contract requests.
• Documents show GEO Group, Inc., CoreCivic, Management and Training Corporation (MTC) and Target Hospitality, which provides temporary tent facilities, submitted proposals.

Zoom out: The proposals mentioned the North Lake Correctional Facility in Baldwin, Michigan, which is owned and operated by the GEO Group, Inc.

• Also cited was the Rio Grande Processing Center in Laredo, Texas, owned and operated by the GEO Group, Inc.
• Carrizo Springs, a tent facility previously used to detain immigrant minors in Carrizo Springs, Texas, owned by Target Hospitality, was also mentioned.

An ICE spokesperson did not immediately respond to an email from Axios.

What they're saying: "These records only further confirm ICE's work to expand immigration detention across the country," Eunice Cho, senior staff attorney at the ACLU's National Prison Project, said in a statement.

• Cho said this includes in facilities "with clear records of abuse" and in areas where immigration detention has not previously existed.
• "Expansion of detention will only enable ICE to enact President-elect Donald Trump's plans for mass deportation."

Between the lines: The documents show that the Biden administration, just like the Obama administration, was involved in outlining its own stepped-up deportation plan while attacking Republicans for suggesting the same.

• Immigrant rights groups have criticized Trump's mass deportation plan and said it would strike fear in communities across the country.
• But many of the same groups have been reluctant to attack President Biden or Vice President Harris.
• Harris said she supported a bipartisan crackdown on immigration and border security, drawing criticism from smaller grassroots immigrant advocacy groups.

State of play: U.S. immigration courts are on pace to decide record numbers of deportation cases — and order the most removals in five years — under Biden's push to fast-track asylum decisions.

• U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement deported more than 271,000 people last fiscal year — the most in nearly a decade, according to an annual report released last month.

The intrigue: The discovery comes just weeks after the ACLU received its first and second tranche of FOIA documents revealing that ICE is considering expanding detention facilities in several states.

By the numbers: ICE currently only has around 38,000 people in detention — prioritizing noncitizens the border patrol arrested at the Southwest Border and noncitizens with criminal histories, according to ICE's annual report.

• To hold more people from a raid surge would require a mass building project of "soft detention" centers, or temporary ad hoc facilities, to house people.

What we're watching: The Trump administration can act on the proposals from the Biden administration and seek more.

A powerful Arctic outbreak tied in part to the polar vortex is set to send temperatures by next week tumbling down to as cold as 35°F below average for mid-January, forecasts show.

Why it matters: The hazardous cold could endanger public health, stress electricity grids, damage crops and make for a frigid Inauguration Day.

• This event is likely to be far colder and more widespread than the Arctic outbreak that occurred earlier this month.

Threat level: Mother Nature's refrigerator door looks to open, with cold air spilling southward out of northern Canada beginning Saturday and lasting for at least a week.

• Through Sunday, about 81 million people are predicted to see temperatures plunge to below-zero Fahrenheit.
• That's a smaller number compared with the polar vortex winter of 2013-2014. But it will increase after Sunday.

Zoom in: The hazardous cold will be especially disruptive in the South and Southeast, where temperature departures from average will be significant.

• The region also may see a snow and ice storm midweek next week.

The Arctic outbreak is likely to result in a blustery and frigid Inauguration Day, with temperatures in the mid-20s°F and wind chills in the teens on the National Mall when President-elect Trump takes the oath of office.

By the numbers: Here's how some cities may be affected early next week:

• Minneapolis: A high of minus-2°F with a low of minus-14°F on Jan. 20.
• Denver: A high of 5°F and a low of minus-5°F on Jan. 20.
• Dallas: A high of 34°F and a low of 20°F on Jan. 20.
• Washington, D.C.: A high of 28°F and a low of 22°F on Jan. 20.

Between the lines: The factors behind this cold outbreak include a strong high pressure area or "ridge" in the jet stream across the eastern Pacific north to Alaska. Meanwhile, there's a dip, or "trough," in the jet stream across central portions of the U.S.

• This will allow Arctic air to surge southward, Zack Taylor, a forecaster at NOAA's Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Md., told Axios.
• There's also a connection to the tropospheric polar vortex, which is distinct from the higher-level, stratospheric polar vortex.
• The latter feature of the Northern Hemisphere winter climate is currently becoming "stretched" from north to south across the North Pole, but it is not breaking into pieces and surging towards the Lower 48 states as it did in 2014.
• Instead, the stretched vortex is expanding southward and helping to promote the flow of air from northern Canada southward toward the continental U.S., said Judah Cohen, a meteorologist at Atmospheric & Environmental Research.

Zoom out: In the troposphere, at about the same height that jet aircraft cruise, a lobe or multiple pieces of ultra-cold air may enter the U.S. while rotating around Hudson Bay, Canada.

• These could result in some of the most extreme cold temperature anomalies of this event.
• In a sign of the magnitude of the cold air on tap for the U.S., computer models are projecting a record strong area of high pressure over Missouri to form early next week, Taylor said.

Context: Studies suggest polar vortex shifts may be more likely due to human-caused climate change, but this is an area of active research.

• Cohen has published research tying rapid, human-induced Arctic warming to a chain of events including disappearing fall sea ice in the Barents and Kara seas.

Friction point: But this area of climate science is hotly contested, with new studies supporting and knocking it down appearing each year.

The intrigue: While a polar vortex event was much-advertised earlier in January, air temperatures turned out to be milder than anticipated.

• That's not likely to be the case this time, however, Taylor said.
• "The weather pattern just looks so much better than it did compared to a week or so ago," he said, referring to the opportunity for extreme cold.
• He noted wind chills could plunge to minus-30°F to minus-40°F in the Upper Midwest and Plains, and even reach below zero in the Southern Plains, Ohio Valley, Gulf Coast and Mid-Atlantic early next week.
• The cold air is likely to be persistent along the Gulf Coast, Taylor said.

It is not expected that this event will break dozens of records, in part because it can be hard to break cold temperature records at this time of year.

• Also, extreme cold is due to become less severe in a climate that is warming over time due to the burning of fossil fuels.

Go deeper: Abnormally cold weather forecast for Trump's inauguration

Attorney General nominee Pam Bondi echoed President-elect Trump's persistent claims that the charges he faced stemmed from politically motivated prosecution driven by President Biden's Justice Department during her Wednesday confirmation hearing.

Why it matters: If confirmed, Bondi's appointment would install a Trump loyalist in the nation's highest law enforcement role — empowering a MAGA overhaul of the DOJ, which could include investigating the president-elect's political enemies.

• Bondi claimed prosecutors "targeted" Trump and his campaign dating back to 2016, adding that she will not "politicize" the DOJ or "target people simply because of their political affiliation."

Driving the news: Bondi vowed in her opening statement to "return the Department of Justice to its core mission of keeping Americans safe and vigorously prosecuting criminals."

• "America will have one tier of justice for all," she said.
• Trump, who was convicted of falsifying business records in New York, has repeatedly sought to cast his various criminal cases as political prosecution by Democrats.

Zoom in: Bondi said she "absolutely" has not discussed appointing a special counsel to investigate Biden, nor has she spoken with the president-elect about going after former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) or members of the House Jan. 6 select committee.

• "No one will be prosecuted, investigated because they are a political opponent," Bondi said. "That's what we've seen for the last four years in this administration."
• Trump has said members of the committee that investigated the Capitol riot should be jailed and has labeled Schiff an enemy "from within."

During a heated exchange with Schiff, Bondi would not say whether she would investigate Special Counsel Jack Smith, noting she'd need more than a "summary" to reach a decision and that it would be "irresponsible" to commit.

• She said what she's heard on "the news" is "horrible" but said she has not "looked at" whether Smith "committed a crime."
• Bondi shot back at Schiff when he asked whether there was a factual predicate to investigate Cheney, saying "we should be worried" about the "crime rate in California."
• Schiff also repeatedly pushed Bondi on Jan. 6 pardons, a day-one priority for Trump that Bondi said she would have "plenty of staff" to work.

Senate Judiciary Committee Democrats pressed Bondi about her loyalty to Trump during her Wednesday confirmation hearing, highlighting past rhetoric that bolstered his false claims about the 2020 election being stolen.

• "At issue I believe in this nomination hearing is not your competence nor your experience," Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), the ranking member on the panel, said during the hearing. "At issue is your ability to say no."

Durbin pressed Bondi on if she has any doubts about the 2020 election, to which she replied, "President Biden is the President of the United States."

• Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) pressed Bondi on how she would handle potential White House interference at the Department of Justice. Bondi said she believes the DOJ "must be independent and must act independently."

Between the lines: Bondi is a longtime Trump ally who has been at his side at times of legal jeopardy, including as a member of his impeachment team in 2020.

Asked by Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) what she would do should Trump give an illegal or unethical order, Bondi said she "will never speak on a hypothetical, especially one saying that the president would do something illegal."

• She again did not answer the hypothetical question of whether she would bring in a special prosecutor if she received credible evidence of a criminal violation by a White House official, including the president.
• "What I do know is special prosecutors have been abused in the past on both sides," she said, adding, "I will look at each situation on a case-by-case basis and consult the appropriate career ethics officials within the department."

Zoom out: During questioning from Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), Bondi repeatedly said she was not familiar with statements Trump had made, including his characterization of Jan. 6 defendants as "hostages" or "patriots."

• Asked earlier in the hearing about pardons for those who stormed the Capitol, she said she'd advise on a "case by case basis."

Catch up quick: Bondi, a veteran prosecutor and former Florida attorney general, was Trump's second pick for attorney general after his embattled first pick, former Rep. Matt Gaetz, withdrew his name from consideration.

• Bondi's hearing will be split across two days, picking up again Thursday at 10:15am ET.
• Bondi's hearing comes a day after Pete Hegseth's fireworks-filled appearance before the Senate Armed Services Committee, where Democrats pressed him on his qualifications to be Defense secretary and the slate of allegations against him.

Go deeper: Scoop: Schumer's plan to fire back at MAGA nominees

Editor's note: This story has been updated throughout with additional information from the hearing.

This chart helps explain why President-elect Trump won't have an easy time delivering on pledges to surge U.S. oil production — at least anytime soon.

State of play: The latest analysis from the Energy Department's independent stats arm sees just modest output growth this year and next (albeit from already record levels).

• It sees production rising less than 1% in 2026 "as operators slow activity due to price pressures."

Why it matters: Market fundamentals hold the cards on producers' decisions — and for now, they probably work against a U.S. surge.

• The Energy Information Administration sees global supply outstripping demand growth over the next two years.
• And it sees falling prices, with the U.S. benchmark WTI averaging $70 per barrel this year but falling to $62 in 2026.

Yes, but: These look-aheads change all the time. There's a reason major forecasting bodies do them monthly.

• Trump's vow to ease regulations could make more barrels economic to produce, though prices and investor goals are typically bigger drivers.

And the global picture is fluid. Think variables like the effect of new sanctions on Russian shipments; Trump's plan to tighten enforcement of Iranian sanctions; and whether OPEC+ adds barrels.

• The International Energy Agency this morning said expanded U.S. sanctions against Russia unveiled this month could "significantly disrupt" the country's supply.
• But for now, IEA is keeping its Russian supply forecast unchanged.

The big picture: It may take years to assess Trump's effect.

• One big thing to watch: efforts to expand oil and gas leasing in the Gulf of Mexico and frontier areas in Alaska.
• Those kinds of projects have decade-long timelines.

Stunning stat: Obviously the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico is the heart of American oil, but this is still wild: its share of total U.S. production should top 50% in 2026.

• "The expected production growth in the Permian in 2026 will be offset by contraction in other regions," EIA finds.
• It sees the Permian producing nearly 7 million barrels per day by the end of 2026. It was under 1 million 15 years ago.

What's next: Look for executive orders on Trump's first day that launch time-consuming bureaucratic work to loosen restrictions.

Inflation showed cooling signs at the end of 2024: The Consumer Price Index ticked up by 0.4% in December, but a measure that excludes food and energy prices slowed for the first time in four months, the Labor Department said on Wednesday.

Why it matters: Core inflation resumed a cooling trend, offering some optimism for policymakers ahead of an uncertain year.

• Officials at the Federal Reserve have projected fewer interest rate cuts in 2025 than previously estimated on the back of stickier inflation.

By the numbers: The Consumer Price Index rose at a slightly quicker pace than the 0.3% increase in the prior month, as energy prices surged by 2.6% in December alone. Gasoline prices shot up 4.4%.

• Over the year ending in December, CPI rose 2.9% — up from 2.7% in November.

Yes, but: Core CPI, a closely watched underlying measure of inflation that strips out food and energy costs, rose 0.2% in December. That breaks the four-month-long streak of 0.3% increases.

• Core CPI increased 3.2% in the 12 months through December, compared to the 3.3% in November.

The bottom line: Inflation has plunged from the sky-high levels seen in 2022. But the path to getting inflation to 2% — the level preferred by the Fed — has looked more arduous than previously thought.

• The data released on Wednesday offers a bit of hope after a months-long stall, though economists warn Trump's trade and immigration policies might further delay progress.

Editor's note: This story was updated with a new chart.

A deal has been reached in the negotiations between Israel and Hamas to release hostages being held in Gaza and establish a ceasefire, according to U.S., Israeli, Egyptian and Qatari officials.

Why it matters: The agreement will end more than 15 months of the deadliest war in the decades long Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

• About 98 hostages are still being held in Gaza, among them seven Americans. Roughly half of the hostages, including three Americans, are believed to be still alive, according to Israeli intelligence.
• More than 46,500 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces since the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, according to the Ministry of Health in Gaza.
• The first phase of the deal calls for 33 hostages to be released along with around 1,000 Palestinian prisoners held in Israel.

The latest: Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani officially announced an agreement has been reached and said it will come into effect on Sunday. A joint U.S.-Egyptian-Qatari team in Cairo will monitor the implementation of the ceasefire agreement, he said.

• President-elect Trump on Truth Social said "we have a deal for the hostages in the Middle East."

In a statement announcing the agreement, President Biden said it "is the result not only of the extreme pressure that Hamas has been under and the changed regional equation after a ceasefire in Lebanon and weakening of Iran — but also of dogged and painstaking American diplomacy."

• Biden said several U.S. citizens being held hostage will be released as part of the first phase of the deal.
• Israeli officials said it will actualy be two U.S. citizens, Keith Siegel and Sagui Dekel-Chen.
• Biden said he is "confident" the deal will hold.

The Israeli cabinet will convene on Thursday morning local time to approve the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, officials said.

• Israel and Hamas haven't officially announced a deal, but NBC News reported senior Hamas official Basem Naim confirmed the militant group had agreed.

The big picture: The indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas reached a critical point over the weekend, one week before Trump will be sworn into office.

• The President-elect has threatened there would be "hell to pay in the Middle East" if Hamas didn't release the hostages by the time he is inaugurated.

Israeli officials, Hamas officials and mediators from Qatar, Egypt and the U.S. have been working around the clock for several days in Doha to hammer out a deal.

• Biden's top Middle East adviser Brett McGurk and Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff have both been in Doha since last week and have been working together to push for a deal.
• Earlier this week, the mediators gave Hamas a final draft agreement.
• Hamas representatives in Doha signed off a few days ago but the parties waited for a response from Hamas' military leader in Gaza, Mohammed Sinwar, which arrived on Wednesday afternoon local time.
• The head of Hamas' negotiating team, Khalil al-Hayya, said in a speech from Qatar after the deal was announced that the Oct. 7 attack on Israel "will forever be a source of pride for our people... and our people will expel the occupation from our land and from Jerusalem in the earliest time possible"

Zoom in: According to the agreement, 33 hostages will be released in the first phase of the deal, including women, children, men over the age of 50 and men under the age of 50 who are wounded or sick. Israel's assessment is that most of those 33 hostages are alive.

• The hostages will be released gradually throughout the first phase of the agreement, beginning on the first day of the six-week ceasefire in Gaza.

During the first phase, Israeli Defense Forces will also gradually withdraw to a buffer zone in Gaza near the border with Israel. The IDF will leave the Netzarim corridor in the center of the Gaza Strip and most of the Philadelphi corridor on the border between Gaza and Egypt.

• Palestinians will also be allowed to return to northern Gaza during the first phase of the deal. Those who travel by foot won't go through security checks but vehicles will be checked by Qatari and Egyptian officials to ensure no heavy weapons are transferred to Gaza.
• Roughly 1,000 Palestinian prisoners will also be released, including about 200 accused of murdering Israelis. The exact number of prisoners to be released will be determined only after Hamas clarifies which of the hostages to be released are alive, Israeli official said.
• From the first day of the ceasefire, 600 aid trucks, including 50 fuel trucks, will enter Gaza every day. In addition, 200,000 tents and 60,000 mobile homes will be delivered for displaced Palestinians in Gaza.
• The agreement stipulates that Qatar, Egypt and the U.S. will serve as guarantors for the implementation of the agreement.

On the sixteenth day of the ceasefire, Israel and Hamas will begin negotiations on the second phase of the agreement, which is supposed to include the release of the remaining hostages and a permanent ceasefire and complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

Editor's note: This is a developing story. Check back for updates.

John Ratcliffe — who is Trump's pick for CIA, and was director of national intelligence for the final months of Trump's first term — will rail against the politicization of the intelligence community during his Senate Intelligence Committee hearing today, a transition source tells Axios.

• He'll vow to eliminate political biases and "wokeness" in the agency's workforce policies, and instead focus on "the mission."

Driving the news: Ratcliffe will portray tech as both a target (Where's China on hypersonics, quantum and AI?) and as a tool (How are analysts utilizing large language models and AI? How are spies beating ubiquitous technical surveillance?).

• Ratcliffe thinks the agency — with a complex matrix of tech-focused directorates, mission centers and positions — has struggled to keep pace with the rapid technological advancements in the private sector.
• He plans to accelerate efforts to coordinate with U.S. private-sector firms at the bleeding edge of technological advancement.

Ratcliffe will focus on China, as reported in a Wall Street Journal banger, "Trump's CIA Pick Expected to Push for Bare-Knuckle Spycraft Against China."

The world's CEOs are much more worried about global trade wars now that Donald Trump has been elected president than they were a year ago, according to a new survey from the Conference Board.

Why it matters: While no one knows exactly what tariffs the upcoming Trump administration is going to impose on which countries, the one certainty is that substantially all such tariffs will be met with retaliatory counter-tariffs. Or more simply: a trade war.

• As Axios noted on Monday, rapidly introduced tariffs could trigger speedy retaliation from major allies, including a broad-based 25% Canadian tariff on all U.S. imports.
• Such actions would make the 2018 trade war look minuscule.

Zoom out: The 2025 list of the top geopolitical worries also includes "foreign investment restrictions" and "greater risk of conflict in Asia-Pacific," both of which have risen sharply from their position last year.

The other side: Geopolitical worries don't seem to have dampened broader economic optimism.

• While 55% of U.S. CEOs said the risk of an economic downturn or recession was going to be a high-impact issue in 2024, that number has fallen to less than 40% in 2025.
• Similarly, the proportion of U.S. CEOs worried about high borrowing costs fell from 28% in 2024 to 16% in 2025.

Between the lines: As CEOs get more optimistic on the economy, a new Deloitte survey of North American CFOs shows a huge uptick in their risk appetite, too, since the election.

• 67% of CFOs say "now is a good time to take risks" — a six-year high.
• That figure is up from just 12% in the third quarter.

The bottom line: Global CEOs seem to have taken Baron Rothschild's admonition to heart: "The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own."

President-elect Trump is being inundated with so much money from corporations and wealthy donors that his team expects to raise about $500 million by summer — even though he can't run again, sources in his operation tell Axios.

Why it matters: By stockpiling so much cash, Trump is signaling he doesn't want to be seen as a lame duck in his second term, and is ready to help political allies, punish opponents and help Republicans keep full control of Congress in 2026.

• "The money is just pouring in at Mar-a-Lago. Trump doesn't have to lift a finger. Everyone's coming to him," said a Trump adviser who was among five insiders to speak with Axios anonymously to describe the inner workings of Trump's operation.
• "We're looking at half a billion [dollars] by June, and we're on track," this adviser said. "It's sort of a target but it's just a realistic projection of what's happening."

Zoom in: Trump's donors are giving to a variety of accounts.

• They include the president-elect's inauguration account, the MAGA Inc. super PAC, a political nonprofit called Securing American Greatness, the Republican National Committee and Trump's presidential library fund.
• The donors run the gamut: from health care to agriculture, insurance, financial institutions, tech and cryptocurrency investors.
• "The crypto guys are just blowing it out," the Trump adviser said. "It used to be $1 million was a big number. Now we're looking at some folks giving like $10 [million] or $20 million."
• "If the tech guys are giving big, it makes everyone give," another Trump adviser added.

Catch up quick: The bumper crop of donors is a marked difference from this time four years ago, after the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol by Trump supporters.

• Many major GOP donors and corporate interests vowed to either pause or stop donations to Trump or congressional Republicans because of the plot to try to overturn the 2020 presidential election.

Some of the donors resumed contributions later, but Trump has kept a grievance list of those who haven't, and he's reminding them he won in 2024 without their help.

• Insiders say Trump's even pulling out corporate balance sheets and referring to the companies' bottom lines as their executives — some carrying donations — come to meet him.

"You guys made this amount of money last year and you're gonna make so much more now because of me," Trump told the representatives of one company, according to a confidant who heard the story from the president-elect.

• "But when I needed you, where the f**k were you? You weren't with me and maybe you were with her," referring to Vice President Harris, whom Trump defeated in November.
• One company's consultant told Axios that he saw Trump in a meeting with a client and soon-to-be-donor "raking them over the coals" and asking them, "Where were you the last four years?"

Between the lines: Trump is transactional but not for sale, these sources say. In these meetings, they say, Trump has made it clear that this is a one-way street: They donate money to support his agenda, but he's not taking their money to support their agenda.

• "A lot of these guys are going down [to Mar-a-Lago] taking victory laps because he's taking their money and they're in for a rude awakening," the company consultant said. "Sure, he'll throw an inaugural party with their money but he owes them nothing."
• "He'll take your money and then tell you, 'I don't give a f**k what you want.' He did that during the campaign," said another Trump adviser. "He's going to do what he wants, what the base wants."

Even so, donors seem to be giving on the assumption that there's something in it for them.

• The reasons appear to vary: ideological alignment with Trump; getting favorable legislation in the upcoming "reconciliation" bill that Trump and the GOP-led Congress are putting together, or avoiding public criticism from Trump that can drive down a company's value.
• The new Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been cited by some as a new factor. It's now a verb in the political lexicon, meaning something that's on the chopping block.
• "We don't want to get DOGE'd," one lobbyist told Axios.

There also are competitors to consider: Some industries and companies are fighting each other, so they feel pressure to contribute if their rivals have.

• "The pharma guys came down and met with Trump and blamed a lot of problems on drug prices on the PBM guys," one Trump adviser said, referring to pharmacy benefit managers.
• "So now, the PBM guys are coming in to meet with Trump."

Democratic women senators grilled Pete Hegseth, President-elect Trump's pick for Defense secretary, during his Tuesday confirmation hearing over his stances on women in the military.

Why it matters: Hegseth, an Army combat veteran, previously said he doesn't believe women should serve in combat roles — and had to answer to women sharply questioning him on that and his subsequent change in stance.

What they're saying: "You will have to change how you see women to do this job well, and I don't know if you are capable of that," Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) said.

Catch up quick: Hegseth said in a podcast hosted by Shawn Ryan on Nov. 7: "We need moms, but not in the military, especially in combat roles."

• He said in the same interview having women in combat roles "hasn't made us more effective."

Zoom in: Gillibrand referenced the statements during Hegseth's confirmation hearing.

• "Please explain these types of statements because they're brutal, and they're mean, and they disrespect men and women who are willing to die for this country," she said.
• Hegseth responded:  "I would point out I've never disparaged women serving in the military. I respect every single female service member that has put on the uniform past and present."
• He answered to Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) that he supports women serving in combat roles and said his critiques stemmed from specific instances of seeing lowered standards.

Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) descibed Hegseth's responses as inconsistent.

• "On the one hand, you say that women are not competent, they make our military less effective," Shaheen said. "And on the other hand, you say 'oh no, now that I've been nominated to be the secretary of defense, I've changed my view on women in the military.'"
• Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), who lost both legs and partial use of her right arm while deployed to Iraq, said: "This hearing now seems to be a hearing about whether or not women are qualified to serve in combat, and not about whether or not you are qualified to be secretary of defense."

Zoom out: Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) also questioned Hegseth on sexual assault allegations against him.

• A woman told police Hegseth sexually assaulted her in 2017 after allegedly taking her phone, blocking the door to a hotel room and refusing to let her leave.
• His attorney has said a payment was made to the women as part of a confidential settlement.
• Hegseth has denied the sexual assault allegations.

Go deeper: Five questions Hegseth dodged at his Defense Department confirmation hearing

Some of the most destructive wildfires in California's history have killed at least 25 people in Los Angeles County, caused hundreds of thousands to evacuate and choked air quality across the region for the past week.

The big picture: The fires erupted in extremely dry conditions last Tuesday as powerful Santa Ana winds struck. As some assess damage in what's set to be among the most costly wildfire disasters ever in the U.S., parts of L.A. and Ventura counties face a "Particularly Dangerous Situation" Red Flag Warning into Wednesday.

Timeline: Wildfires threaten Southern California

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Pete Hegseth, President-elect Trump's pick for Defense secretary, on Tuesday called the problem of extremism in the military "fake," but researchers warn there's a growing trend of military-linked terrorism.

The big picture: The rising number of people with military backgrounds engaging in domestic terrorism over the past three decades can partially be attributed to the difficulty transitioning from active duty to veteran status and a lack of community or purpose, experts say.

Driving the news: In the most recent high-profile cases, the New Year's Day attacks in New Orleans and Las Vegas were both carried out by Army veterans.

Zoom in: The FBI said Tuesday the suspect in the deadly New Orleans vehicle attack, Shamsud-Din Jabbar had been isolating himself from society and began following extremist views last year.

• Investigators believe the 42-year-old U.S. Army veteran was "radicalized online" and he "appears to have been inspired — from afar — by ISIS," retiring FBI Director Christopher Wray told CBS' "60 Minutes" in an interview broadcast Sunday.
• The Vegas suspect, Matthew Alan Livelsberger, 37, from Colorado Springs, was an active-duty U.S. Army soldier on approved leave when he died inside a Tesla Cybertruck that exploded outside the Trump International Hotel in the city, officials said.
• However, Hegseth said during his Senate confirmation hearing Tuesday that the Pentagon overreacted in attempting to combat extremism and characterized it as "peddling the lie of racism in the military."
• He added that efforts to weed out extremism pushed "rank-and-file patriots out of their formations."

By the numbers: A December report from the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism found that from 1990 to 2023, 730 individuals with U.S. military backgrounds had committed criminal acts that were motivated by their political, economic, social or religious goals.

• There has been an incline in the past decade or so: From 1990-2010, an average of 7.1 people per year with U.S. military backgrounds committed extremist crimes. Since 2011, that number has grown to 44.6 per year.
• Some 84% were no longer serving in the military when they committed extremist crimes, per the report.

Zoom out: The National Institute of Justice said in analysis last year that people who encounter difficulties leaving the military may be attracted to the pull of domestic extremist groups.

• This is possibly because they can be introduced to additional combinations of risk factors for radicalization, according to Jeffrey Gruenewald, professor and director of the Terrorism Research Center at the University of Arkansas. These include a lack of purpose, social alienation or struggles with mental health.
• "Knowing this, terrorist groups may target individuals with military experience, as the ideologies underlying violent extremism have something to offer them, including a clear enemy to direct their anger, a sense of belonging and meaning, and a purpose bigger than themselves," he said.

Meanwhile, extremist groups are increasing recruiting online and specifically targeting veterans, Heidi Beirich, chief strategy officer and co-founder of Global Project Against Hate and Extremism, told PBS.

• The military has "not done a good job of rooting out extremism in its ranks in recent years," she added.

Yes, but: There isn't a single factor or profile that's predictive of radicalization to violence, Gruenewald told Axios.

• "Nonetheless, it is feasible that military experience for some can increase or exacerbate risk factors associated with radicalization to violence," he said.
• Being in the military may increase a person's chances of experiencing a significant personal loss, trauma, or feelings of social isolation and alienation, Gruenewald said.
• It could also exacerbate struggles with identity, mental health and grievances, he added.

Situation report: The Defense Department said in a 2021 report that it "has long prohibited Service members from actively engaging in extremist activities" but after a number of threat attacks, it built a program to "detect, deter, and mitigate such threats."

• This included efforts to combat extremist groups from recruiting military personnel and veterans.
• Defense Department spokesperson Sue Gough said even a single incident in which those in the military commit prohibited extremist activities "can have an outsized impact on the Department and its mission."
• She added in her email: "There is no place for prohibited extremist activities in the Department of Defense. Every attempt is made to ensure such behavior is promptly and appropriately addressed and reported to the authorities."

The bottom line: People with U.S. military backgrounds represent only 14.7% of the broader set of extremists who have committed criminal offenses in the United States since 1990, the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism report found.

• "The problem is that somebody who has military training who gets radicalized can be far more deadly," Beirich said.
• "Mass attacks that are perpetrated by active-duty military or veterans are more lethal than those that aren't."

Go deeper: New Orleans attack mirrors global pattern of using vehicles as terror weapons

Flags at the U.S. Capitol will fly at full-staff during President-elect Trump's inauguration despite President Biden's directive that they remain at half-staff through January to honor former President Carter's death.

Why it matters: House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and some Republican governors are promising to fly flags at full-staff Monday after Trump repeatedly complained about them being lowered for his swearing in.

Driving the news: Johnson announced Tuesday that flags at the Capitol will fly at full-staff for the inauguration and then return to half-staff the next day in honor of Carter.

Zoom out: An increasing number of Republican governors have ordered that flags at state buildings be flown at full-staff on Inauguration Day.

• These include Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillen, North Dakota Gov. Kelly Armstrong, Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds.
• Some cited a federal statute that calls for the flag to be displayed 24 hours a day on certain occasions for "patriotic effect," instead of from sunrise to sunset.
• "While we honor the service of a former President, we must also celebrate the service of an incoming President and the bright future ahead for the United States of America," Abbott's announcement said.

Between the lines: Flags at Trump's Mar-a-Lago club returned to full-staff days after Carter was buried in Plains, Georgia, AP reported.

• Trump took to Truth Social in early January to complain: "The Democrats are all 'giddy' about our magnificent American flag potentially being at 'half mast' during my inauguration," he wrote, incorrectly using the term to refer to a flag on a ship.
• "Nobody wants to see this, and no American can be happy about it," he added. "Let's see how it plays out."

Go deeper:

• Trump inauguration 2017 vs. 2025: What's changed
• Gov. Cox faces flag choice for Trump's inauguration during Carter mourning period

Editor's note: This story was updated with additional states that have said their flags will be full-staff on Inauguration Day.

South Korea's impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol was arrested at his presidential residence on Wednesday morning local time following an hours-long standoff, images from the scene show.

Why it matters: It's the first time an incumbent president has been detained in South Korea and marks the second attempt by anti-corruption investigators to arrest him for questioning related to his brief martial law declaration last month that triggered protests and shocked allies.

• Yoon's many guards and supporters prevented the last attempt earlier this month.

The big picture: South Korean police are investigating Yoon for possible insurrection in connection with his declaration that saw him impeached and suspended from presidential duties.

• He has via lawyers, denied the allegations and maintains he took the emergency action to counter "pro-North Korean" elements in the country.
• Yoon could face life in prison or the death penalty if he were charged and convicted of the offenses he's accused of as presidential immunity doesn't extend to insurrection or treason in South Korea.

In photos: How Yoon's arrest unfolded

Go deeper: South Korean president hit with travel ban after martial law mayhem

Editor's note: This article has been updated with more photos and details from the arrest.

At least two wildfires ignited in Southern California during critical fire weather and triggered fresh evacuations on Tuesday, one week after deadly blazes first erupted across Los Angeles County.

The big picture: The fires have killed at least 25 people and the "Particularly Dangerous Situation Red Flag Warning" that the National Weather Service's L.A. office issue remains in effect until Wednesday afternoon.

Threat level: "Southern California continues to see ingredients for high fire danger: strong wind gusts in the 45-70 mph range and relative humidities in the 8-15 % range," per an NWS forecast discussion.

• Santa Ana winds were weaker than expected Tuesday. But the National Weather Service's L.A. office said on X: "We are not out of the woods yet. Please stay on guard for a fast-moving fire."
• It added: "The winds underperformed today, but one more enhancement could happen tonight-tomorrow."

The high fire risk extends into the San Diego County, where peak wind gusts had also exceeded well over 50-60 mph in several places, per a post from the local NWS office Tuesday. Sill Hill recorded a gust of 74 mph — hurricane intensity.

• The winds are expected to subside after that, but the fire threat remains due to extremely dry conditions as firefighters continue to tackle California's biggest blazes — the Palisades and Eaton fires, which are already among the state's most destructive on record.
• Evacuation orders remain in effect for both of those fires, which ignited as Santa Ana winds arrived last Tuesday.

Situation report: The Palisades Fire has killed at least eight people and destroyed thousands of structures over an estimated 23,713 acres as of Tuesday evening. It was at 18% containment, per Cal Fire.

• The Eaton Fire has killed at least 17 people and destroyed thousands of structures over an estimated 14,117 acres over the same period. That fire was 35% contained.

Meanwhile, authorities issued evacuation orders in response to the Scout Fire that's burned at 0% containment across an estimated two acres in Riverside County since igniting during Santa Ana winds at lunchtime Tuesday.

• Angeles National Forest announced on X that another Riverside County wildfire that ignited in Hemet on Tuesday, the Stone Fire, had been "knocked down at 1/2 acre."

Between the lines: Research suggests a climate-change related weather "whiplash" that saw two wet winters and an extremely, unusually hot spring, summer and fall helped contribute to the weeklong fires in L.A. county.

• "The evidence shows that hydroclimate whiplash has already increased due to global warming, and further warming will bring about even larger increases," per a statement from UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain, lead author of a study published during critical fire weather in the L.A. area on Jan. 9.
• "This whiplash sequence in California has increased fire risk twofold: first, by greatly increasing the growth of flammable grass and brush in the months leading up to fire season, and then by drying it out to exceptionally high levels with the extreme dryness and warmth that followed."

What we're watching: "Although winds have overall trended lighter than initially expected, NE to E winds may create large breaking waves to Avalon and Two Harbors Late tonight into Wednesday late morning," per an NWS LA forecast discussion.

• This could potentially create "hazardous conditions and possible minor coastal flooding."
• The region may face more critical fire conditions next week, the NWS' Climate Prediction Center warned on Tuesday.

More from Axios:

• In photos: L.A. County endures a week of fires
• LA's wildfires sparked by rare collision of climate factors
• The psychological toll of California's catastrophic fires
• Weather Service struggles to convey fire warnings to public

Editor's note: This a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

Former first lady Michelle Obama won't attend President-elect Trump's inauguration next week, her office announced on Tuesday.

Why it matters: All other living first ladies and presidents have confirmed they will follow the tradition of attending the presidential swearing-in ceremony, including her husband, former President Obama.

• Representatives for former President Clinton and ex-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Trump's 2016 presidential rival, have confirmed their attendance at Monday's ceremony — as have former President George W. Bush and ex-first lady Laura Bush.
• Michelle Obama was also notably absent from former President Carter's funeral.

Driving the news: "Former President Barack Obama is confirmed to attend the 60th Inaugural Ceremonies," per a media statement from the Obamas' office.

• "Former First Lady Michelle Obama will not attend the upcoming inauguration," added the statement, without elaborating further.
• Representatives for the Obamas did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment Tuesday evening.

Go deeper: Village People, Kid Rock to play at Trump inaugural rally

OpenAI is rolling out a beta feature called Tasks to ChatGPT that lets users schedule future actions and reminders.

Why it matters: Tasks is a step toward making ChatGPT a more helpful AI companion, reducing reliance on other apps such as Apple's Siri and Amazon's Alexa for reminders.

• This comes amid reported plans to release an autonomous computer-controlling agent called "Operator."

Zoom in: Tasks, which is available to some ChatGPT Plus, Team and Pro users starting today, lets subscribers schedule actions ahead of time.

• OpenAI eventually plans to roll the feature to everyone with a ChatGPT account.
• If a free user asks ChatGPT to set a reminder, it suggests they use Siri, Google and Alexa.

How it works: Select the "GPT-4o with scheduled tasks" model from the menu and then send a message about what you'd like it to do and when. This will create the task.

• Some examples of tasks could be "give me a daily weather report for Queens, NY every morning at 7am" or "remind me three months from now that I have a dentist appointment at 4pm."
• ChatGPT will send push notifications on the web, desktop (macOS) and mobile. It also sends an email notification of the task.
• A user can have up to 25 active reminders at a time.
• Users can manage and name tasks by selecting the Tasks option in the profile menu on web. ChatGPT may also suggest tasks based on a user's chats, and users can choose to accept them or not.

Editor's note: This story was updated with additional features about email notifications and active reminders.

The Trump transition proved today that it can impose its will on the Hill, even with a nomination that looked cooked before the holidays.

Why it matters: Not a single Republican showed signs on Tuesday of opposing Defense nominee Pete Hegseth. Now he's got a clear path to the Pentagon.

• "Pete Hegseth hit a home run," Sen. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) said on Fox News after the hearing.
• Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters Tuesday that Hegseth did well and expects he'll be quickly confirmed.

Here's the formula:

• Survive the first two weeks: Trump's team got past the news cycles about Senate Republicans being quietly concerned about Hegseth's nomination. They've told us for a month that if he can get to his nomination hearing, he'll be fine.
• Sic MAGA foot soldiers on anyone suspected of falling out of line. Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) was noticeably friendly at today's hearing. Ernst told local radio on Wednesday that she'll vote to confirm Hegseth.
• Stonewall the Dems: Only the committee's top Democrat — Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) — was allowed to see Hegseth's background check. Democrats were denied second rounds of questioning today. Hegseth didn't meet with any of the rank-and-file Dems ahead of today's hearing.
• Take advantage of the media's shattered glass: Today's most TV-ready moments from Senate Dems — Tim Kaine's hypotheticals on Hegseth's red lines and his behavior … Kirsten Gillibrand's condemnation of his comments on women in the military … Mazie Hirono's questions on his drinking — are unlikely to reach MAGA viewers.

Zoom in: If you look past the spicy back-and-forth on Hegseth's character, there was a strong line of questions about whether he can do the job.

• The most prominent: Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) tried to pin down Hegseth on whether he's ever led a major negotiation. She asked if he's familiar with high-level pacts like ASEAN.

The Republicans on the panel were very clear that this isn't a dealbreaker. They even suggested that his lack of traditional experience running bureaucracies would benefit someone trying to clean house at the Pentagon.

• They backed him as he suggested he'd purge top brass and cut hundreds or thousands of civilian support staff in the Pentagon.
• "The Dems struggled to land a blow or a gotcha moment," Banks told Axios after the hearing.
• "With today's performance, I believe Pete Hegseth's path to confirmation has been assured," Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said in a statement.

Go deeper:

• Five questions Hegseth dodged
• Hegseth claims "smear campaign"
• Hegseth says he was blocked from working Biden inauguration over tattoo

A progressive group that bolstered Robert F. Kennedy Jr. during the 2024 presidential campaign is also supporting a new war room that wants to scuttle his nomination for Health and Human Services Secretary.

Why it matters: The two tracks of support from the Sixteen Thirty Fund — which can accept unlimited and anonymous contributions— show how the dark money group takes a flexible approach to countering President-elect Trump's MAGA agenda.

• During the campaign, a super PAC it funded, Retire Career Politicians, tried to boost RFK, with ads claiming he "isn't afraid to tell the truth about vaccines." Republicans were convinced the effort was part of a broader scheme to siphon votes away from Trump.
• More recently, the Sixteen Thirty Fund is accepting donations on behalf of a new "Stop RFK War Room" effort, run by Protect Our Care, a liberal group that's running ads accusing RFK of spreading "deadly lies about vaccines."

Driving the news: Protect Our Care plans to spend close to $1 million on its new war room, which is running digital ads and coordinating opposition to the RFK nomination ahead of his confirmation hearing, according to a person familiar with the matter.

• Its executive director, Brad Woodhouse, a longtime Democratic strategist, told Politico that RFK's ideas are '"too dangerous" not to counter.

Zoom out: The Sixteen Thirty Fund acts as a clearinghouse for progressive causes, funneling unrestricted money — around $400 million in the 2020 campaign, according to the New York Times — to various organizations.

• Organized as 501(c)(4), contributions to the Sixteen Thirty Fund are not tax-deductible. But donors' names remain confidential.
• The group can spend up to 49% of its budget on political activities, including transfers to super PACs.

Zoom in: In the 2024 cycle, Sixteen Thirty Fund gave some $2 million to Retire Career Politicians, a super PAC that spent most of its $18 million on trying to defeat Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.).

• But the super PAC also spent some $400,000 on behalf of RFK. Some of that money was spent after RFK dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump.
• The Sixteen Thirty Fund's relationship with Protect Our Care goes back longer. It has been providing "fiscal support" for several years. Protect Our Care launched its "Stop RFK War Room" in November.

What they are saying: "We are proud to provide administrative and back-office services to support their (Protect Our Care) work to ensure that Americans can get the high-quality health care they need and deserve," said a spokesperson for the Sixteen Thirty Fund.

• "With regard to Retire Career Politicians PAC, Sixteen Thirty Fund provided the organization with unrestricted contributions in 2024. That is the extent of the relationship," the spokesperson said.
• "Neither of these efforts are at odds with the values of Sixteen Thirty Fund to achieve progressive outcomes."

The bottom line: It is difficult to estimate the total amount that Sixteen Thirty Fund spent on political activities in 2024.

• But they have been involved with both pro- and anti-RFK efforts.