FBI Director Christopher Wray said in a "60 Minutes" interview airing Sunday he's retiring early because he didn't want to thrust the Bureau "deeper into the fray" after facing intense criticism from President-elect Trump.

Why it matters: Trump nominated Wray in 2017 for what's typically a 10-year term, but the FBI chief has in recent years been criticized by the Republican leader and his allies over issues related to Trump and President Biden.

• During the interview, Wray addressed being criticized over FBI investigations by both a Republican and a Democratic president.

Context: The president said after issuing a presidential pardon for his son Hunter Biden following his conviction on felony gun charges and guilty plea on felony tax charges that he believed "raw politics has infected this process and it led to a miscarriage of justice."

What he's saying: "This is a hard job. You're inevitably going to make different people angry, often very powerful people," Wray said on "60 Minutes."

• "But part of the essence of the rule of law is to make sure that facts, and the law, and proper predication drive investigations, not who's in power, not who wants it to be so or not so," he told CBS' Scott Pelley.
• On his relationship with Trump souring after the FBI investigated alleged attempts to overturn the 2020 election results, Wray said an investigator's job was to "follow the facts wherever they lead, no matter who likes it."

Zoom in: On criticism about Trump's classified documents investigation that saw the FBI searching the Republican leader's Mar-a-Lago home, Wray said the FBI strived to follow the rules throughout, and he believed they did this.

• Wray said a search warrant is "not anybody's first choice" and they always try less intrusive means, like getting information back voluntarily and after that via a subpoena.
• "Only if, after all that, we learn that the agents haven't been given all of the classified material and in fact those efforts have been frustrated, even obstructed, then our agents are left with no choice but to go to a federal judge, make a probable cause showing, and get a search warrant," Wray said.
• "That's what happened here," added Wray, who described himself during the interview as a "conservative Republican."
• He said he hadn't had "any interaction with the Biden White House about investigations into the former president and neither to his knowledge had anyone else from the FBI.

The bottom line: Wray said in his 7.5 years of experience as FBI chief he'd seen "people often claim to be very interested in independence and objectivity until independence and objectivity lead to an outcome they don't like." 

• He added: "Truth is truth, not necessarily what either side wants it to be. And ultimately all we can do at the FBI is make sure that we stay focused on doing the work in the right way. Following our rules and not letting preferences, partisan or otherwise drive or taint the approach."

Threat level: Wray told Pelley that China's government targeting U.S. civilian critical infrastructure was the biggest threat the incoming Trump administration faced.

• "Things like water treatment plants. We're talking about transportation systems. We're talking about targeting of our energy sector, the electric grid, natural gas pipelines," he said.
• "Recently we've seen targeting of our telecommunications systems.  … we believe that they have collected their content, the actual communications of those people."

Meanwhile, "the most challenging type of terrorist threat we face" is online radicalization from extremist groups.

• Wray noted that the FBI's investigation into the New Orleans New Year's Day terrorist attack indicates at this stage that the suspect was "radicalized online" and he "appears to have been inspired — from afar — by ISIS."

Flashback: House GOP drops plan to hold FBI director in contempt

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

Los Angeles County continues to face "critical fire conditions" after firefighters have battled deadly wildfires for days that have razed entire neighborhoods.

The big picture: The death toll rose to at least 24, per the L.A. County medical examiner's Sunday evening update. Another 16 have been reported as missing, Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna said during a Sunday briefing.

• More than 100,000 residents remain under evacuation orders and over 12,000 structures have been destroyed.

State of play: The Kenneth, Sunset and Lidia fires have been 100% contained, Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a Sunday update.

• The Hurst Fire was at 89% containment Sunday evening, per Cal Fire.
• The Palisades and Eaton fires, the biggest of the blazes, were 11% and 27% contained, respectively.
• Sixteen of the reported deaths have been attributed to the Eaton Fire, while the remaining eight have been categorized with the Palisades Fire.
• Newsom announced he's deployed a further 1,000 California National Guard personnel to the Los Angeles area, taking the number assisting in firefighting efforts to 2,500.

Situation report: Red flag warnings for much of Los Angeles and Ventura counties are set to remain in place until Wednesday as gusty winds and low relative humidity persist, the National Weather Service's LA office said Sunday morning.

• NWS expects the offshore Santa Ana winds that have been making fighting the fires extremely difficult to pick back up after a brief reprieve, which could complicate firefighters' efforts to contain the flames.
• Dry vegetation coupled with "prolonged extreme fire conditions" will support "rapid spread and erratic behavior" of new or existing fires, per NWS. The Eaton Fire may be less affected by strong winds than the other blazes.

By the numbers: Nearly 42,300 customers in Los Angeles County were without power Sunday at 4 pm ET, per PowerOutage.us.

Context: Parts of Southern California are experiencing their driest start on record.

• An overlap of rare climate factors is in part to blame for the rapidly spreading blazes, as the bone-dry region grapples with the worst high wind event in Southern California since 2011, per Axios' Andrew Freedman.
• While the fires are not the largest wildfires the state has faced, they are among the most destructive on record.

Go deeper: Why fire hydrants ran dry as wildfires ravaged Los Angeles

Editor's note: This a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

With eight days until Jan. 20, President-elect Trump and his team are preparing to unleash an onslaught of executive orders regarding the border.

Vice President-elect JD Vance said Sunday those day-one actions should send a message to "illegal immigrants all over the world: You are not welcome in this country illegally."

Here's what you may have missed when newsmakers hit the airwaves this Sunday, January 12.

1. Vance: "America is closed to illegal immigration"

Vance said in an interview aired Sunday that the Trump administration will release "dozens of executive orders" on day one signaling that "America is closed to illegal immigration."

The big picture: He dismissed questions about the humanitarian concerns surrounding Trump's mass deportation promises, arguing that family separation is a "dishonest term."

• "If you say, for example, in the United States we have a guy who's convicted of a violent crime and has to go to prison, we want that guy to go to prison," he said. "But yes, it does mean that that guy is going to be separated from his family."
• Vance argued Democrats "hide behind" raising alarms about a lack of compassion for families at the border.
• "It is not compassion to allow the drug cartels to traffic small children," he argued. "It is not compassionate to allow the worst people in the world to send minor children, some of them victims of sex trafficking, into our country. That is the real humanitarian crisis at the border."

Fox News' Shannon Bream pushed back, noting that violent criminals are a small slice of the millions of undocumented immigrants living in the U.S.

• Vance replied that law enforcement action is necessary to end the border crisis, saying the country can't buy into "the lie ... from the extreme left" that "law enforcement at the American southern border is somehow not compassionate to families who want to cross illegally."

Flashback: A federal judge in 2023 banned the separation of families at the U.S. southern border until 2031 to deter migrants from crossing.

• That ruling could prevent the return of the first Trump administration's controversial policy that saw thousands of children separated from their parents.
• Tom Homan, Trump's incoming "border czar," played a key role in crafting the policy.

Trump has suggested he'll use the military for immigration raids and has said he'd be open to detaining immigrants in camps.

• He's also floated deporting families with mixed immigration status together and threatened to end birthright citizenship for babies of non-citizens.

2. Newsom taking Trump's threats to withhold California aid seriously

Trump has threatened to withhold federal aid from California on several occasions — both during and after his first White House stay.

• And amid the catastrophic fires tearing through Los Angeles County, Trump has repeatedly heaped blame on California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
• It's not immediately clear how Trump would handle the fires if they're still blazing when he takes over the White House.

Driving the news: "That's his style," Newsom said on NBC's "Meet the Press," highlighting a slate of times Trump delayed or threatened to block aid to the Golden State and others.

• He said he takes the threats "seriously to the extent that in the past it's taken a little bit more time" to deliver federal aid during political tension with Trump.

Zoom out: Vance, asked in a "Fox News Sunday" interview aired Sunday if Trump would withhold aid to Californians, said Trump "is the president for all Americans."

• But he blamed the fires' rampant spread in part on a "serious lack of competent" California officials.

Reality check: The fires ignited amid a rare overlap of climate factors: the worst high wind event in Southern California in over a decade, and extremely dry conditions.

What they're saying: Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) said Sunday that he's ready to work with Trump to make sure there is "no gap, no air between us" when rebuilding and helping victims heal after the deadly fires.

• "I've been in Congress a long time, approving aid after disasters. I never once even considered, is this hurricane hitting a red state or a blue state?" Schiff said.
• He added: "We need the incoming president to view it that way."

3. Lankford flips on Tulsi

Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) made former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard's path to confirmation a bit easier Sunday when he said he would vote yes for her as director of national intelligence.

Why it matters: With the GOP's Senate majority so small, all of Trump's Cabinet appointees can only risk losing a few Republican votes, and several in the party have seemed reluctant to vote for Gabbard.

Between the lines: Lankford previously said he wanted Gabbard to explain where she stands on Section 702, which allows the U.S. to engage in targeted surveillance of foreign nationals living outside the United States, which Gabbard opposed while in Congress.

• Last week, Gabbard said she supports Section 702 and that she would "uphold Americans' Fourth Amendment right" if confirmed as the nation's top spy.

What they're saying: "[Section 702] was a very important piece for me," Lankford said on NBC News' "Meet the Press."

• He added that Section 702 is a key part of the DNI job, "to make sure we're actually watching for people to come attack us and stopping them before they do."

State of play: 13 proposed members of Trump's Cabinet will sit for confirmation hearings this week, including Pete Hegseth (Sec. of Defense) on Jan. 14 and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (Sec. of Homeland Security) on Jan. 15.

• A date for Gabbard's confirmation hearing has not been set.

More from Axios' Sunday coverage:

• JD Vance says there's "a deal to be made in Greenland"
• LA fires could be the U.S.' worst natural disaster, Newsom says
• Trump's Cabinet disruptors soften key views as hearings loom

President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed the efforts to reach a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal by Jan. 20 — when Biden's term ends — according to U.S. and Israeli officials.

Why it matters: The indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas have reached a critical point eight days before President-elect Trump is sworn into office.

• Biden's team is closely coordinated with Trump's team and both sides are working together to push for a deal, officials said.
• "We are very very close [to a Gaza deal] and yet far because we are not there. It is possible to get it done before January 20 - but I can't be sure", White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union".

What they're saying: The Israeli Prime Minister's office said Netanyahu briefed Biden on the progress in the negotiations and on the mandate he gave Israeli negotiators to reach a deal.

• Biden stressed the immediate need for a ceasefire in Gaza and the return of the hostages, as well as a surge in humanitarian aid enabled by a stoppage in the fighting, the White House said

Between the lines: Biden's top Middle East adviser Brett McGurk has negotiating deal terms in Doha for a week.

• Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff also arrived in Doha in recent days. On Saturday he visited Netanyahu in Israel before traveling back to Doha.
• Israeli Mossad Director David Barnea, Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar and IDF general Nitzan Alon also traveled to Doha on Saturday in order to push forward the hostage and ceasefire deal.

Vice President-elect JD Vance said in an interview aired Sunday that "there's a deal to be made in Greenland" amid President-elect Trump's indication that he wants the U.S. to own the world's largest island.

Why it matters: Trump's refusal to rule out military force to acquire Greenland, currently defended by NATO member Denmark, or the Panama Canal sent shockwaves through the U.S. and its ally nations.

• Vance said on "Fox News Sunday" that military force isn't needed in Greenland, and that the U.S. already has troops stationed on the island.
• Trump has repeatedly said that controlling Greenland is critical for U.S. national security, a talking point that Vance echoed on Sunday.
• Danish officials, in private messages sent to Trump's team, expressed willingness to boost security in Greenland or increase U.S. military presence there, Axios' Barak Ravid and Dave Lawler report.

Driving the news: Greenland is "really important for America strategically" and has "a lot of great natural resources," Vance said.

• Vance added that people Donald Trump Jr. met in Greenland last week told him they "want to be empowered to develop" those resources. Vance also argued that the Danish government has not done a sufficient job of securing the island.

Context: As climate change reshapes the Arctic, it's ignited heightened competition among global superpowers in the region.

• During the Cold War, Greenland played a key role in U.S. defense as part of an early warning system. Trump has argued that it's critical to secure the island as Russia and China also search for footholds in the Arctic.
• The effects of a changing climate may also make it easier to tap Greenland's critical minerals. But Greenlandic and Danish officials have made clear that the island is not for sale.

Zoom out: Vance's comments were echoed by Trump's pick for national security adviser, Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), who said the president-elect "is always going to leave all options on the table" when pressed if the incoming administration would use military force to achieve its goals in Greenland or Panama.

• "President Trump is ready to take big, bold steps to ensure the United States is well-defended," he said on ABC's "This Week," pointing to mineral resources and the emergence of new shipping lanes in the region.
• While he did not rule out the use of military action, Waltz suggested "existing agreements" could also be amended, adding that Greenland is "pushing for independence, which would allow all types of other avenues."

Yes, but: Not all Republicans think military intervention is a viable option.

• Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) said on NBC's "Meet the Press" that the U.S. is "not going to invade another country."
• "That's not who we are," he continued. "The president speaks very boldly on a lot of things."

Go deeper: Trump dreams of empire expansion

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said in a "Meet the Press" interview that the wildfires that have destroyed entire neighborhoods across Los Angeles could be the worst natural disaster in U.S. history "in terms of just the costs associated with it."

• That would mean eclipsing Hurricane Katrina, which devastated New Orleans and the Mississippi coastline in 2005 and caused over $200 billion in damage.

The big picture: The fires, which have now killed at least 16, are not the biggest ever recorded in the state — but they are among the most destructive.

• Thousands of homes and businesses have been razed and tens of thousands of acres have burned.
• Risk experts believe the insured losses from the fires will be greater than $20 billion, surpassing the 2018 Camp Fire's record for the biggest insured wildfire loss ever.

Context: While the LA County fires rank among the most expensive wildfires in U.S. history, they currently fall far behind other disasters.

• Hurricane Katrina killed over 1800 people and remains the most expensive natural disaster to hit the United States.
• Hurricane Harvey caused over $160 billion in damage in 2017. Over 100 people died in the storm across four states, as well as one death in Guyana.

What he's saying: Newsom said he expects there to be "a lot more" deaths counted.

• Eleven of the 16 deaths currently recorded were attributed to the Eaton fire, according to the Los Angeles medical examiner's Saturday evening update. Five were attributed to the Palisades fire.

The catastrophic fires occurred as Los Angeles prepares to play a key role in what experts are calling the U.S.' "mega decade" of sports: In upcoming years, the city will host the Super Bowl in 2027, World Cup games in 2026 and the 2028 Olympics.

• "[T]hat only reinforces the imperative in moving quickly, doing it in the spirit of collaboration and cooperation," Newsom said.
• He said the state is organizing a Marshall Plan to rebuild the region ahead of the events.

Zoom out: Beyond rebuilding communities, Newsom said he wants an independent investigation to answer questions about water supply issues highlighted by the disaster.

• Reports that firefighters found dry fire hydrants while combatting the flames sparked outrage — and an onslaught of political jabs from President-elect Trump, who claimed without evidence that the governor blocked supply to the south of the state because of fish conservation efforts.
• "This is not about finger-pointing," Newsom said. "It's about answering the questions you and everybody want answered," he said.

Go deeper: The psychological toll of California's catastrophic fires

Three of President-elect Trump's most provocative Cabinet picks have reversed key positions ahead of next week's confirmation hearings, softening their edges for an establishment they've been charged with tearing down.

Why it matters: For as powerful as MAGA has become, the Senate's confirmation process remains a significant obstacle — at least nominally — to injecting fringe beliefs directly into the heart of government.

The big picture: In the initial weeks after Trump unveiled his Cabinet picks, some establishment-minded Republicans raised red flags in the records of three picks:

• Tulsi Gabbard, tapped to lead the U.S. intelligence community, was deeply suspicious of the national security apparatus and publicly opposed Section 702 foreign surveillance authorities as a member of Congress.
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr., chosen to be secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, falsely claimed in 2023 that the polio vaccine caused cancer that killed "many more people than polio ever did."
• Pete Hegseth, an anti-DEI stalwart picked to be defense secretary, bluntly opposed women serving in combat roles in the military.

Flash forward: All three lightning-rod picks have spent weeks meeting with senators on Capitol Hill in an effort to secure 50 votes. The results are head-spinning:

• Gabbard told Punchbowl News on Friday that she now supports the Section 702 surveillance program thanks to updated whistleblower and civil liberty protections. Just days earlier, Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) suggested reversing that one policy position could help her get confirmed.
• RFK Jr. told reporters on Capitol Hill last month: "I'm all for the polio vaccine." He also assured conservative senators that he will pursue anti-abortion policies at HHS, despite his past support for reproductive rights.
• Hegseth, after an early clash with Army veteran Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), said he supports "all women serving in our military today," including in combat roles. Hegseth also promised to stop drinking if confirmed, amid sordid allegations about his history with alcohol.

Reality check: Their maximalist impulses may have been tamed, but that doesn't mean Gabbard, Kennedy and Hegseth won't be able to radically transform their agencies in the way MAGA envisions.

• There's also been no indication yet that Trump's most controversial choice, Kash Patel for FBI director, will walk away from his incendiary promises to exact revenge on the president-elect's enemies.

Between the lines: Today's Republican coalition is diverse and unwieldy, and Trump's Cabinet reflects that reality.

• While some have been playing nice with senators to win confirmation, others have had to harmonize with Trump himself.
• Secretary of State pick Marco Rubio, for example, has long been a fierce critic of TikTok — but now appears to be deferring to Trump's interest in preserving the Chinese-owned app, according to Punchbowl.
• Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent — a former George Soros adviser who warned against the inflationary effects of tariffs just last year — will now be a key member of the economic team tasked with carrying out Trump's protectionist agenda.

What to watch: Senate Democrats are salivating at the chance to create fireworks and exploit divisions at the blockbuster confirmation hearings, which begin with Hegseth on Jan. 14.

Entire neighborhoods in Southern California have been destroyed by deadly wildfires, displacing communities that don't know what — if anything — they'll have to return to.

The big picture: Researchers have linked wildfires to long-lasting anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder in survivors, in addition to the well-documented physical toll.

• Both the loss and uncertainty surrounding wildfires are traumatic, Jeff Katzman, a Connecticut-based psychiatrist who grew up in Pacific Palisades, California, told Axios.
• "There is the lingering, not knowing status of what happened," he said. "There's the experience of loss of an entire community that has generations of meaning."

Between the lines: Like other modern tragedies, destruction in California is being shared immediately on social media.

• "There's something potentially positive about it that people who have suffered together or are in this together can connect and can share resources and can share experiences," Katzman said.
• On another level, he added, it can be "difficult to integrate" seeing so much relatable, devastating information, leading to a sense of helplessness.

Context: Research published last year found a link between wildfires and worsened mental health by analyzing psychotropic prescription data on 7 million people over an eight-year period following 25 large fires on the West Coast.

• People exposed to California's deadliest wildfire, the 2018 Camp Fire, showed greater chronic symptoms of PTSD, anxiety and depression, according to research published in 2023.
• "These findings dovetail with significant psychological impacts noted after extreme climate events," researchers wrote. "Warming temperatures have been further linked to greater suicide rates."
• Another study from last year found that wildfires are associated with increased emergency room visits for anxiety disorders in the western U.S.

State of play: Sometimes pragmatism comes before grief during a disaster like the urban wildfires, Katzman said. People might first prioritize figuring out what a return to work or school will could like, before processing the loss.

• "Like when we lose our loved ones, there's stuff to do that often shields or distracts us from the underlying experience of loss," he said. "That can be a really tender experience."
• Surviving can help people rationalize their situation, too, he said. Material objects might become secondary, but memories and all existing notions of the future are still tainted.

Zoom out: Survivors in California could even grapple with feelings that they have to move out of their home state to stay protected from future extreme weather events — which could bring upon loneliness and further instability.

• "Solastalgia" has been used to describe the chronic distress of seeing negative environmental change in one's home environment.
• "With this increase in the pace of these events, which one would imagine will keep growing, anxiety and all mental health issues will increase," Katzman said. "Mental health issues following a single event are nothing compared to an exposure to multiple events."

Case in point: Los Angeles families calling into Parents Anonymous, a nonprofit helpline, have been expressing extreme overwhelm this week, said CEO Lisa Pion-Berlin, CEO of Parents Anonymous.

• For those whose houses were destroyed, "it's not just the things in the building you lost, you lost a home," she said. "And that's a safe place where you're raising a family, where you go to relax, where you go to cry, where you go to celebrate, where you have birthday parties."
• "A home is much more than a building, a home is part of your heart, and that's been totally cut out."

Go deeper:

• L.A. infernos pose added health dangers
• How to help victims of the Los Angeles fires
• Los Angeles County fires' destruction shown in before and after images

Climate change — particularly whiplash between two wet winters followed by a bone-dry, unusually hot spring, summer and fall — set the stage for Los Angeles' deadly and devastating fires, scientists say.

• The firestorm was the product of what climate researchers refer to as "hydroclimate whiplash."
• Other factors include one of the worst Santa Ana wind events of the past two decades; land use patterns; and sparks set off by power lines, car engines, suspected arsonists and other potential ignition sources.

Why it matters: Whatever the source, it's clear a changing climate made the fires more ferocious, long-lasting and destructive, as has been the trend across the West in recent decades.

Threat level: Though winds are no longer as strong, the overall conditions that led to the extraordinary rates of fire spread haven't abated.

• That may only come with significant rainfall, which currently isn't in sight.

Zoom in: Hydroclimate whiplash occurs when one extreme precipitation regime is replaced by another.

• In this case, extremely wet conditions are followed almost immediately by parched weather patterns, typically accompanied by above average temperatures.
• This leads to a green up of vegetation that then dries out through evaporation, leading to ample "fuels" for a blaze to burn.
• The strong winds — which reached 99 mph in some locations — acted as an "atmospheric blow dryer" on trees and other vegetation, further drying out the landscape and ensuring any fire wouldn't stay small for long, UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said in an online video briefing.

Stunning stat: In downtown Los Angeles, just 0.16 inches of rain has fallen since May 6, compared to the average of greater than 4 inches, per the National Weather Service.

• This is the city's second-driest May 6 to Dec 31 period on record, according to the National Weather Service's Los Angeles forecast office.
• No rain is in the forecast through early next week, with one Santa Ana event diminishing this morning, and another potentially strong one forecast for early in the coming week.

Zoom out: The see-saw pattern between wet and dry periods isn't new for Californians. But these swings are becoming acute — and not just in the Golden State.

• A new study published last week shows these swings are becoming more of a trigger for wildfires, floods and drought globally.
• In the study, scientists refer to an increasingly "expanding atmospheric sponge," since the atmosphere is able to evaporate, absorb and release 7% more water vapor for every 1°C (1.8°F) that the temperature increases.

In other words, the atmosphere gets more thirsty as the climate warms, drawing more moisture from plants, and leading to more days with extreme fire weather conditions.

• This analogy captures the atmosphere's ability to absorb a larger and larger amount of water vapor as temperatures increase, and wring out more and more water due to such temperature changes.
• Data shows this whiplash effect has increased by between 31% to 66% globally since the mid-20th century, and that the rate of increase is speeding up.

Between the lines: If global average temperatures increase by about 3°C (5.4°F) — which is currently likely — then the whiplash effect will more than double in its intensity.

• "Increasing hydroclimate whiplash may turn out to be one of the more universal global changes on a warming Earth," Swain said in a statement.
• Though the rare, powerful winds are fanning the blazes, it's the whiplash-driven lack of rain that has trapped Southern California in a seemingly never-ending fire season.
• In addition to the increased thirstiness of the atmosphere and see-sawing from floods to droughts and back again, studies show that climate change is increasing the odds that windy periods occurring deeper into the traditional "rainy season" will overlap with extreme dryness.
• This overlap is another crucial tie between the ongoing California fires and long-term, human-caused climate change.

The intrigue: Land management, the use of prescribed burns and expanding building in fire-prone areas have also contributed to this wildfire nightmare. But climate change is a large, and growing factor.

• "Whether we like it or not, the nature of wildfire in Southern California is changing and we must adapt accordingly," said UCLA climate scientist Alex Hall in a statement.
• "That will involve some frank conversations about the tradeoffs involved in improving our strategies to reduce ignitions, improve stewardship of our unique chaparral landscapes to reduce impacts, and protect human life and property."

The bottom line: Climate change didn't provide the spark that caused each of these catastrophic fires in LA County. But it's making such fires worse.

Special counsel Jack Smith resigned just days before President-elect Trump is set to take over the presidency, multiple outlets reported Saturday.

Why it matters: Smith, who was appointed by Attorney General Merrick Garland in Nov. 2022, spearheaded two federal criminal cases against Trump, but the future of both cases was imperiled by Trump's election victory.

• Trump is the first convicted felon to win the presidency, but he avoided any consequences in his New York hush money case.
• With Trump's victory, Smith's cases — over the 2020 election and classified documents — were imperiled and weeks after the election, he requested the former to be dropped and his appeal in the latter to be dismissed.
• The two cases had already been undercut by the Supreme Court's immunity ruling.
• However, a federal appeals court said this week that Smith's final report on his investigations into Trump can be released despite the president-elect's strenuous objections.
• The New York Times first reported on Nov. 13, that Smith planned to resign once the report was complete.

State of play: Since Trump's re-election, Smith was in discussions with Justice Department officials about how to wind down his two federal prosecutions of Trump.

• The Justice Department has a longstanding policy that a sitting president can't be prosecuted.
• Trump also vowed on the campaign trail to fire Smith "within two seconds" of returning to office.

Zoom out: The Justice Department has faced criticism from some Democrats that it moved too slowly in its investigations of Trump.

• In the final weeks of the presidential campaign, Smith dug in on the Jan. 6 case, unsealing a new indictment in light of the Supreme Court's immunity ruling and unveiling new evidence.

Go deeper: Jack Smith moving to wind down prosecutions against Trump

As devastating wildfires raged across Los Angeles County this week, firefighters battling the blazes encountered fire hydrants that had no water.

Why it matters: The dry fire hydrants sparked political outrage and illustrated just how unprepared municipal water systems are to combat the sorts of large-scale urban wildfires that have become more frequent with climate change.

• Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) on Friday ordered an independent investigation into the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (DWP), the nation's largest municipal utility, over hydrants and water supply issues. DWP provides water for more than four million L.A. residents and serves Pacific Palisades, a wealthy area of Los Angeles where much of the destruction took place.
• "While water supplies from local fire hydrants are not designed to extinguish wildfires over large areas, losing supplies from fire hydrants likely impaired the effort to protect some homes and evacuation corridors," Newsom said. "We need answers to how that happened."
• President-elect Trump has suggested Newsom was to blame for the dry hydrants — claiming without evidence that he blocked water supply to the south of the state with the state's fish conservation efforts. The governor and other experts have sharply rejected the claims.
• "We are looking at a situation that is just completely not part of any domestic water system design," Marty Adams, a former DWP general manager and engineer, told The New York Times.

The big picture: Fire hydrants running out of water isn't unheard of during severe wildfires, according to Kearns, as similar instances were reported during wildfires in Maui, Colorado and Oregon.

• "It's something that we have definitely started to see as, essentially, these wildland fires move into urban areas and become urban conflagrations," Faith Kearns, a water and wildfire expert with the Global Futures Laboratory at Arizona State University, told Axios.
• "Our urban water supply is meant to deal more with things like a single house being on fire," she added.

Why did the fire hydrants run dry?

Firefighters battling the Palisades Fire earlier this week encountered swaths of fire hydrants with no water after the three water tanks supplying the Pacific Palisades ran dry by 3 a.m. Wednesday, Janisse Quiñones, chief engineer of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, said at a press briefing later that day.

• The area's water system had been pushed "to the extreme," she said. "Four times the normal demand was seen for 15 hours straight, which lowered our water pressure."
• The problem persisted for hours while wildfires ravaged the area, the New York Times reported.

Political finger-pointing as a result

Trump and his billionaire ally Elon Musk skewered California Democrats, and in Trump's case Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), over the wildfires.

• Musk wrote on X Wednesday: "These fires are easily avoidable, but nonsense regulations in California prevent action being taken, so year after year homes burn down and more people die."
• Trump claimed on Truth Social Wednesday that Newsom, a longtime foe, had "refused to sign" a water restoration declaration "that would have allowed millions of gallons of water, from excess rain and snow melt from the North, to flow daily into many parts of California" including areas impacted by wildfires.

Newsom in an X post Wednesday called Trump's claim "that a water restoration declaration" exists "pure fiction."

• He said — though not mentioning Trump — during a briefing Friday with President Biden that there have been "hurricane force winds of mis and disinformation, lies."
• "And it breaks my heart as people are suffering and struggling that we're up against those hurricane forces as well," the governor added.
• Newsom also in a letter to Trump Friday invited him to visit and see the damage in L.A.

Would more water have helped?

Even if the water hydrants hadn't run dry, it wouldn't have changed the fact that urban water systems aren't designed to combat multiple, expansive and fast-moving wildfires all at once.

• While every bit of water helps, using fire hydrants and water hoses isn't an effective method of battling "multiple onslaughts of fire under high wind conditions,' she said.
• "Is it going to save a whole neighborhood under those kinds of ... high wind conditions? Probably not.

Fighting wildland fires in urban areas also limits the methods that can be used, like aerial drops, which could damage structures below, she noted.

• High winds can also ground planes, which was the case when a civilian drone hit a Super Scooper aircraft used in the Palisades Fire on Thursday, per an X post from Los Angeles Fire Department spokesperson Erik Scott.
• That fire was only 11% contained as of Saturday morning.

What we're watching: Kearns said cities need, among other things, high-volume pipes and more backup power to pump waters to higher elevations.

• "Now we face the question of whether and how there would be enough funding, for example, to actually develop urban water systems that were equipped to deal with these kinds of wildfires," she said.

More from Axios:

• Wildfire tech investor on what comes next
• LA County fires among most destructive ever recorded in California

Tesla has pocketed $11 billion from the sale of regulatory credits to rival automakers needing help to hit tough emissions targets — easy money that could dry up if President-elect Trump rolls back Biden-era regulations.

Why it matters: Tesla's billionaire CEO, Elon Musk, is spearheading Trump's effort to cut government red tape.

• In this case, reversing Biden's environmental policy would significantly hurt his own company's bottom line.

Follow the money: In the nine months through September 2024, 43% of Tesla's $4.8 billion in net income came from selling regulatory credits to other carmakers.

• Since 2012, 34% of Tesla's total $32 billion in profits have come from such credit sales.

Where it stands: Absent a change in policy, that revenue stream is likely to soar in coming years as legacy carmakers scramble to buy emissions credits from Tesla, which generates such credits with every vehicle it produces.

• But if those credit revenues disappear, Tesla — facing falling vehicle sales — would see its profit margin lag that of GM.

The big picture: Transportation is the leading source of climate-changing carbon emissions. The Environmental Protection Agency under President Biden has enacted ever-stricter limits on tailpipe emissions.

• Starting with the 2023 model year, automakers' fleet-wide emissions must decrease an average of 8% a year through 2026, compared with a typical 2% annual improvement in the past.
• The rules get even more stringent starting with the 2027 model year. From that point on, fleet-wide emissions must fall by about 11% per year through 2032.

Between the lines: While selling hybrid vehicles and more efficient gas cars and trucks certainly helps, lots more EVs are essential to hitting such targets.

• The EPA estimates that compliance would mean 56 percent of new cars sold will be electric by 2032.

The other side: Trump claims Biden's policies are akin to an "EV mandate" and has said he'd relax EPA standards, as he did during his first term.

Friction point: In the meantime, EV sales aren't increasing as fast as expected, which means carmakers face substantial penalties for noncompliance.

• One way to avoid such fines is to purchase tradeable emissions credits from companies that have exceeded the standards by selling lots of electric cars, primarily Tesla.
• As long as EPA standards keep rising and EV sales lag, demand for credits will increase, driving up the costs of compliance for most automakers — and fattening Tesla's coffers.

State of play: It's already happening.

• In 2023, the first model year that Biden's higher standards went into effect, Tesla sold $1.8 billion worth of credits, including 34 million federal greenhouse gas credits, to other automakers.
• Through the first nine months of 2024, it's already taken in $2.1 billion in credit revenue, with year-end figures expected Jan. 29.
• Tesla said the 53% increase over the prior nine months was "driven by demand for credits in North America as other automobile manufacturers scale back on their battery electric vehicle plans."

Zoom in: Ford Motor is among the companies trying to scoop up emissions credits to ensure compliance while it reins in its EV plans in favor of more hybrids and plug-in hybrids.

• Ford disclosed in July that it had contracts to purchase about $3.8 billion of regulatory compliance credits for use in North America and Europe for current and future model years, including $100 million it spent during the second quarter of 2024.
• In October, Tesla said it has long-term contracts to sell $4.7 billion of credits, including $683 million in sales expected in the next 12 months.

Of note: Credits are also traded to comply with other state and federal regulations, including California's zero-emission vehicle program.

• In Europe, Tesla could collect more than $1 billion in compensation from Stellantis, Toyota, Ford, Subaru and Mazda, which are pooling emissions with Tesla to avoid big fines, according to UBS analysts.

The intrigue: No company wants to pay a competitor for help complying with the law, but for most automakers, purchasing regulatory credits — just like buying steel or rubber — is now a cost of doing business.

• There is no central marketplace. Instead, credit transactions are handled privately between firms, sometimes under long-term contracts.

How it works: The EPA sets an increasingly-stringent emissions standard, measured in grams of carbon dioxide per mile, for each manufacturer's car and truck fleet.

• The permitted level of emissions is a sales-weighted target based on the average "footprint" (the area between the four tires) of the vehicles each automaker produces. The larger the footprint, the greater the emissions any given vehicle is allowed to produce.

If a carmaker's fleet-wide performance comes in below the EPA limit, they earn credits for that model year. If it is above the limit, they generate a deficit.

• Manufacturers have lots of flexibility to comply, including banking credits from year to year or trading with other companies.

Between the lines: EVs, plug-in hybrids and other alternative-fuel vehicles are incentivized with credit "multipliers," which is why Tesla, a pure EV manufacturer, earns the most credits every year.

• Other EV makers, including Rivian and Lucid, as well as hybrid leaders such as Honda and Toyota, also earn extra credits but nowhere near as many as Tesla.
• The perennial biggest seller of credits is Tesla. The biggest buyer has often been Stellantis, maker of Ram pickups and Jeep SUVs, which is starting to add hybrid and electric powertrains.

The bottom line: Trading emissions credits is big money, and Tesla is the clear winner, as long as Trump doesn't pull the rug out from under his First Buddy.

The National Weather Service plans to issue a red flag warning of critical fire weather conditions including gusty winds and low relative humidity, effective Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon, for Los Angeles and Ventura counties, the agency's LA office stated Saturday morning.

The big picture: Historic California wildfires have severely impacted these areas, and the NWS expects offshore Santa Ana winds to pick back up, with another strong offshore event occurring early next week and no rain in sight.

• Wildfires have seared more than 30,000 acres in Los Angeles County this week, leaving at least 11 people dead, per an update Friday from the Los Angeles County Department of Medical Examiner.

Threat level: With no rain in the forecast, these winds will challenge firefighters battling the ongoing blazes and any new fire starts.

• Parts of Southern California are experiencing their driest start to the winter "rainy season" on record, after two wet winters encouraged plant growth that has led to ample dry vegetation for fires to burn.

What they're saying: "With continued dry conditions, Red Flag Warnings are likely. While a brief reprieve from the winds are expected Sunday Night, they will form again Monday through Wednesday, with a peak around Tuesday of gusts between 40 and 60 mph," the NWS said.

• "With humidities plummeting to 5 to 15 percent, there is a high risk for Red Flag Warnings."

More from Axios:

• L.A. fire losses will set records, but that's only the beginning
• No reprieve for California inferno, with high winds continuing into next week

Meta's Mark Zuckerberg has outlined a new template for companies to make up with President-elect Trump and MAGA.

Why it matters: Meta did this with a methodical striptease over nine days, capturing massive public and MAGA attention.

• "This is speaking Trump's love language," a transition source told us.

Zuckerberg had been considering some of the moves for years. Almost all had been in the works for months. But sources tell us Meta deliberately packaged them all up for detonation over nine days to maximize the pop for Trump.

• "It's hard to break through in this media environment," said a source familiar with the strategy. "It sends a signal."

Here's the Meta formula:

• Put a Trump friend on your board (Ultimate Fighting Championship CEO Dana White).
• Promote a prominent Republican as your chief global affairs officer (Joel Kaplan, succeeding liberal-friendly Nick Clegg, president of global affairs).
• Align your philosophy with Trump's on a big-ticket public issue (free speech over fact-checking).
• Announce your philosophical change on Fox News, hoping Trump is watching. In this case, he was. "Meta, Facebook, I think they've come a long way," Trump said at a Mar-a-Lago news conference, adding of Kaplan's appearance on the "Fox and Friends" curvy couch: "The man was very impressive."
• Take a big public stand on a favorite issue for Trump and MAGA (rolling back DEI programs).
• Amplify that stand in an interview with Fox News Digital. (Kaplan again!)
• Go on Joe Rogan's podcast and blast President Biden for censorship.
• And light up social media with all the fireworks.

Between the lines: Love it or hate it, the strategy seemed to work brilliantly. Trump praised Meta. Rogan hailed Zuck.

• House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who has aggressively investigated Big Tech, said he hopes other companies "follow the lead of X and Meta in upholding freedom of speech online."

Behind the scenes: After visiting Trump at Mar-a-Lago in November, Zuckerberg decided to relax Meta's speech policies and "asked a small team to carry out his goals within weeks," The New York Times reported.

• Knowing the change would be contentious, Zuckerberg "assembled a team of no more than a dozen close advisers and lieutenants, including Joel Kaplan ... Kevin Martin, the head of U.S. policy; and David Ginsberg, the head of communications. Mr. Zuckerberg insisted on no leaks," The Times added.
• Zuckerberg was back at Mar-a-Lago on Friday, a day after taping with Rogan in Austin.

The big picture: Every company in America is watching. We can expect some to copy Zuckerberg — after Elon Musk showed the way.

• Shifts this fast are rare. And rarely isolated.

What we're watching: Backlash — internal and external — is already brewing.

• Training materials for Meta's new speech policies list examples of permissible attacks against various identity groups.
• Roy Austin Jr., who built and led a small civil rights team inside Meta beginning in 2021, announced Friday he was leaving the company.
• Biden criticized Zuckerberg's fact-checking reversal as "shameful" at a new conference Friday.

The bottom line: Alex Bruesewitz — CEO of X Strategies LLC, and trusted adviser to the Trump campaign on alternative media — told us companies are either "a. Finally recognizing that 'wokeness' is a cancer, or b. Strategically adapting to the political climate and pandering to Republicans now that we are in power."

• "Only time will tell which is the true motivation," Bruesewitz said. "Regardless, MAGA is winning and will continue to win!"

Axios' Zachary Basu contributed reporting.

President-elect Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Israel on Saturday to push for a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, Israeli officials said.

Why it matters: Witkoff's traveled to Israel from Qatar as part of a last-minute effort by Trump to press all parties involved in the negotiations to conclude the deal before Jan. 20.

• Trump has threatened there would be "hell to pay in the Middle East" if Hamas didn't release the hostages by the time he is inaugurated.

Behind the scenes: A senior Israeli official said Witkoff delivered a message to the prime minister of Qatar in their meeting in Doha on Friday that Trump wants to see a deal within days.

Zoom in: Witkoff met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday and stressed Trump's goal of reaching a deal by Jan. 20.

• During the meeting, members of the Israeli negotiations team and President Biden's Middle East adviser Brett McGurk, who is in Doha, joined in a conference call to discuss the status of the negotiations, Netanyahu's office said.
• At the end of the meeting, Netanyahu instructed the director of Mossad David Barnea, the Director of Shin Bet Ronen Bar and IDF general Nitzan Alon to travel to Doha immediately in order to push forward the hostage and ceasefire deal, the prime minister's office said.

Another senior Israeli official said Witkoff emphasized the Inauguration Day goal several times during the consultation with Netanyahu and the Israeli negotiating team.

• "Witkoff is playing a crucial role in the negotiations right now, applying pressure from Trump," the Israeli official said.
• The Israeli official noted that there has been a narrowing of gaps in the negotiations between Israel and Hamas in recent days, but some gaps still remain. He said the parties are not yet "within the zone of agreement" but are very close to it.
• The Israeli official added: "There is a chance of reaching an agreement, but it is a serious challenge. The heads of the Israeli negotiating team would not have gone to Qatar if they did not think an agreement could be reached. It will be difficult, but the team will do its best to reach a deal."
• Witkoff is going back to Doha to continue the efforts to reach a deal, a U.S. source said.

Witkoff declined to comment.

Driving the news: Indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas with Qatari, Egyptian and U.S. mediation are still ongoing in Doha. U.S. officials say McGurk and Witkoff are coordinating their efforts.

• About 98 hostages are still held by Hamas in Gaza, among them seven Americans. Roughly half of the hostages are believed to be still alive, according to Israeli intelligence, including three Americans.
• If an agreement is reached, the first phase could include the release of 33 hostages — some who are still alive and some who are dead.
• The first phase is also expected to include a ceasefire in Gaza for a period of between six and seven weeks and the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including those who murdered Israelis.

State of play: White House spokesman John Kirby said on Friday that progress has been made in the negotiations and that a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal is possible before Jan. 20.

• "But more compromises are needed," Kirby said.
• Israeli officials said on Saturday that there has been progress in the talks over the last 24 hours.
• They said Netanyahu has to decide whether to send the directors of the Israeli Mossad and Shin Bet intelligence agencies to Doha to join the talks and try to close the deal.

What they're saying: CIA director Bill Burns told NPR in an interview publish on Friday that the hostages are held "in hellish conditions in tunnels and Gaza civilians are also in hellish conditions and suffering terribly."

• "So there's every reason for political leaders to recognize that enough is enough. That perfect is rarely on the menu in the Middle East and it's time to make a deal," he said.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with details of the Netanyahu and Witkoff meeting.

The Supreme Court on Friday agreed to review a challenge to the Affordable Care Act's requirement that insurers cover certain recommended preventive services at no cost.

Why it matters: Eliminating the requirement could limit access to services like cancer screenings, preventive medications for heart disease, behavioral health counseling and HIV drugs known as PrEP.

• The timing of the high court review puts the legal defense of the ACA mandate in the hands of the incoming Trump administration.

Zoom in: The case takes up whether the coverage requirement, based on the recommendations of the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, is invalid because the panel lacked authority since its members weren't Senate-confirmed.

• Two Christian-owned companies and several individuals sued the federal government on religious freedom grounds in 2020 over the requirement that their employer-sponsored insurance cover no-cost preventive medicines for HIV.
• A federal judge in Texas in 2022 ruled in favor of the plaintiffs and blocked the government from requiring insurers to provide free coverage of recommended services.
• The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals last year agreed with some of the arguments but overturned the nationwide injunction, only blocking the requirement for the companies and individuals who brought the case.

The Biden administration and the challengers each asked the Supreme Court to review that mixed ruling. The administration argued it called into question insurers' legal duty to cover task force recommendations without cost-sharing.

• Allowing employers to exclude PrEP over religious objections could open the door to objections over other covered services, including vaccines, KFF has noted.

They say it's hard to turn a battleship around, but Mark Zuckerberg just about-faced his globe-spanning, $1.5 trillion-value, 3 billion-user company — transforming Meta from a bastion of Silicon Valley's socially progressive neoliberalism into a full-on MAGA hive.

Why it matters: After Zuckerberg's embrace of Trump and Trumpism, Silicon Valley is holding its breath to see whether a whole row of tech dominoes is about to fall in the same direction.

Some early signs of wobble:

• Google, Apple, Microsoft and Amazon have all lined up to give $1 million each to the Trump inauguration. (Apple's donation came personally from CEO Tim Cook.)
• Amazon put $40 million behind a Melania Trump documentary.

State of play: So far, while Meta's competitors have ritualistically expressed their willingness to work with the new administration, none of them has gone as far as Zuckerberg in donning the corporate equivalent of a MAGA hat.

• This week he announced Meta was ending its fact-checking program; loosening restrictions on hate speech; and shutting down the company's diversity efforts.

Publicly traded companies with billions of customers generally try not to alienate any large bloc of the public. Becoming closely aligned with either side of the U.S.'s red/blue divide risks limiting a business's market reach.

• Until now, Elon Musk has been the striking exception to this rule. Zuckerberg makes two — and his moves open the door wider for anyone else who wants to emulate them.

Yes, but: Zuckerberg, unlike his rival CEOs, has absolute voting control of his company.

• As he said in a three-hour conversation with Joe Rogan Friday, "Because I control our company, I have the benefit of not having to convince the board not to fire me."
• None of the other members of tech's trillion-dollar club can move with the same speed or independence, even if they wanted to.

Case in point: Apple has always aimed, and often managed, to transcend mere politics and inhabit a separate dimension making "great products that people love."

• Cook worked with Trump last time around, winning "Tim Apple" as a sobriquet but also occasionally speaking out about the importance of protecting immigrant workers and LGBTQ rights.
• Google and Microsoft — both with immigrant, non-white CEOs — also offered some pushback on those issues during Trump's first administration as well.
• Tech leaders united to oppose Trump's ban on transgender troops and, in a variety of combinations, took on some of his immigration policies.

This time around, these firms are quietly signaling they want to cooperate with the new Trump team on issues — like competition with China — where they see common ground.

• All these companies were the target of a federal antitrust full-court press in the Biden era, and each is wondering whether they can get a reprieve from the new team in D.C.
• Every tech giant also wants to expand the use of skilled-worker visas, and that has already led to friction with the immigrant-hostile MAGA movement.

During the first Trump term, an activist young tech work force occasionally took to the barricades to protest government policies and pressure reforms from their employers.

• But multiple rounds of layoffs and a messy pandemic recovery have left workers feeling more insecure.
• While Zuckerberg's new policies have sparked internal debate and dissent at Meta, the CEO may welcome an exodus of dissenters as a sort of voluntary lay-off.
• In a Threads post, he described users who might quit Meta's platforms in protest as "virtue-signaling."

What we're watching: With each fresh controversy the new administration touches off, tech CEOs will have to navigate a maze involving Trump's demands for loyalty, employees' emotions and wishes, and their own strategies.

• If Zuckerberg's experiment of committing a whole megacompany to taking overt sides in America's vast culture war pays off, others could follow.

The bottom line: Trump used to say that Zuckerberg would "spend the rest of his life in prison." But the incoming president's relationships with business leaders are strictly transactional, and Meta's CEO is probably resting a lot easier now.

Risk experts believe the insured losses from the Los Angeles wildfires will easily top $20 billion, but in some ways that's only the start of the crisis California now faces.

Why it matters: Anything above $12.5 billion would pass 2018's Camp Fire to become the biggest insured wildfire loss ever, per data from insurance brokers Aon. Economic losses will be substantially higher, perhaps tens of billions of dollars more.

• Stunning stat: At the high end of the range, the L.A. fires would be near the list of the 10 costliest natural disasters in global history by inflation-adjusted insured loss, per data from the Insurance Information Institute.

The big picture: The loss number in and of itself is staggering, but only tells a small portion of the story.

• Thousands upon thousands of homes and businesses have been lost, and tough decisions about if and how to rebuild will take years, even as climate change makes this sort of disaster more likely.
• California's insurance market was already struggling as carriers fled the state's many risks. As a result the state insurer of last resort, FAIR Plan, has ballooned to an unsustainable size.
• Systematic reforms designed to expand coverage and let insurers re-price risk are just now coming online, but may be too little, too late, given the scope of losses at play.

What they're saying: "A $20 billion to $30 billion, insured loss event is now on the table," says Jon Schneyer, research director at analytics firm CoreLogic.

• Risk assessment firm Verisk said late Thursday the insured property at risk in just the Palisades area is at least $15 billion — not a loss estimate, but a clear sense of what's at stake.

Zoom in: "It's going to be a challenge to the affordability and availability of insurance," says Sridhar Manyem, senior director of industry research at insurance ratings agency A.M. Best.

• Ironically, homeowners' insurance premiums in big California cities are much lower than the rest of the country on a cost-per-$1,000-of-coverage basis, per an Oct. 2024 ICE Mortgage Monitor report.
• But if the houses are more expensive, the premium ends up being higher anyway — and in the Pacific Palisades, the median house is worth $3.5 million.
• "That is a demographically well-off area. When their only alternative is to get the FAIR Plan, you have to wonder what happens to people who don't have the same resources," says Michelle Meyers, an insurance litigator with Singleton Schreiber in Sacramento.

What's next: The immediate question will be what happens to FAIR Plan, which is not built to handle billions of dollars of simultaneous losses.

• It's a last resort, but an increasingly important last resort after so many insurers left the state. The state's reforms were designed to keep more from leaving, but the risk may overwhelm those reforms.
• "I don't have a lot of faith that a good amount of what's in the sustainable insurance plan really incentivizes carriers to really want to write in the state," says Lindsey Frase, managing director at reinsurance brokers Howden Re. "I suspect there may need to be an intervening step where there is some support form the state government to weather this storm."

What to watch: Experts say the L.A. fires will also reopen conversations about mitigation — because while insurance may be a first line of recovery, steps like clearing brush and hardening roofs are still the first line of defense.

• "If you can prevent that first home from picking up an ember and catching fire, it's like a natural fire break," CoreLogic's Schneyer says.

The bottom line: The fires are still burning, but the end of their impact isn't days away — it's years or more down the road.

Denmark sent private messages in recent days to President-elect Trump's team expressing willingness to discuss boosting security in Greenland or increasing the U.S. military presence on the island, two sources with knowledge of the issue tell Axios.

Why it matters: Trump's refusal to rule out military force to take control of Greenland was effectively a threat to invade a longstanding NATO ally. Those comments caught Copenhagen and many other European capitals off guard.

The big picture: Greenland (pop. 56,000) is largely autonomous, but Denmark maintains responsibility for defense.

• Trump has repeatedly declared that controlling Greenland — the world's largest island — is necessary for U.S. national security vis-a-vis Russia and China. His son Don Jr. visited Greenland this week bearing MAGA hats.
• Climate change is opening up the Arctic for competition between superpowers, and could also make it easier to tap Greenland's mineral riches.

Between the lines: The Danish government wants to convince Trump, including through the messages passed to his advisers this week, that his security concerns can be addressed without claiming Greenland for the U.S.

• One European diplomat told Axios that Denmark is widely seen as one of the closest allies of the U.S. within the EU, and no one could have imagined it would be the first country with which Trump would pick a fight.

Driving the news: Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and her Greenlandic counterpart Múte Egede met on Friday in Copenhagen to discuss the situation.

• In a press conference after the meeting Frederiksen said she asked for a meeting with Trump. Egede said he is also ready to talk to the president-elect.
• "Greenland is for the Greenlandic people. We do not want to be Danish, we do not want to be American. We want to be Greenlandic," Egede, an advocate for independence, said at the press conference.

Behind the scenes: The sources said the Danish government wants to avoid a public clash with the new U.S. administration, and asked members of the Trump team for clarification regarding what exactly the president-elect meant in his comments earlier this week.

• In the messages passed to the Trump team, the Danish government made clear Greenland was not for sale but expressed readiness to discuss any other U.S. request regarding the island, the sources said.
• The U.S. already has a military base on Greenland and an agreement with Denmark dating to 1951 on defending the island, under which an increase of U.S. forces could easily be discussed.
• Danish officials have already said they are looking into further measures to increase investment in military infrastructure and capabilities in Greenland, in consultation with the Greenlandic government.

Zoom out: Greenland played a key role in NATO and U.S. defenses during the Cold War as part of an early warning system to detect Soviet submarines, or potentially missiles.

• With new sea lanes opening up as climate change reshapes the Arctic, Greenland's geography is becoming all the more important.
• But if Trump's real concern is security, there's no reason the U.S. couldn't simply increase its military presence and capabilities in Greenland under its alliance with Denmark, contends Malte Humpert, a founder and senior fellow at the Arctic Institute.

What to watch: Secretary of State Blinken downplayed Trump's comments and said there's no point wasting time on them. "It is not a good idea and it is not going to happen," Blinken said.

• But Trump's continued comments about this issue, and his son's visit, mean Danish and Greenlandic officials can't rule out the possibility that Trump is quite serious.

The bottom line: The main question is whether Trump would be content to cut a deal with Denmark and declare victory, or whether his true mission is to become the first president in 80 years to gain new territory for the U.S.

People are saying "I do" later in life — and now, more say they'll never tie the knot.

The big picture: The median age of those getting married for the first time was nearly 30 in 2023, up two years from 2010, according to census data.

• Compare that to 1950, when the median age was around 22, per the U.S. Census Bureau's Current Population Survey.

State of play: D.C., New York and California residents are the oldest at their first marriage, at around 31, while Utah, Idaho and West Virginia residents are the youngest, at around 27, recent data shows.