President Trump opened the door Thursday for Senate Republicans to find cost savings in Medicaid as they hunt for ways to pay for his border, defense and tax priorities, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Trump has been emphatic that Medicaid benefits won't be "touched," but he endorsed looking for "waste, fraud and abuse" and even imposing new work requirements.

• On Thursday, Trump and some top White House officials met with Republican senators on the Finance Committee, which includes Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and GOP Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.).

Zoom in: Trump indicated to senators he is open to cutting "waste, fraud and abuse" from any mandatory spending — including Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security, multiple senators in the meeting told Axios.

• Social Security can't be dealt with in reconciliation.
• Trump expressed openness to work requirements for Medicaid and discussing ways to reduce the rate of growth of some health care programs which could be counted as potentially hundreds of billions of dollars in savings.
• He was also clear he wants Congress to deal with raising the debt ceiling in the reconciliation package and supports making his 2017 tax cuts permanent by using a "current policy" maneuver to make the cost $0.

"It became clear that [Trump] wanted to be bold," one senator told Axios, requesting anonymity to speak candidly.

What they're saying: "The President wants to make sure that we do eliminate waste, fraud, abuse, and, you know, there are a number of scams going on right now with Medicaid," Barrasso told Axios.

• "There is money laundering being done with regard to Medicaid, and the American taxpayers shouldn't have to pay for that," Barrasso said.

What to watch: The group also discussed an idea of codifying DOGE cuts with a big rescission package, which could be passed with a simple majority in the Senate — rather than needing Democrats to break the filibuster.

• Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) pitched Elon Musk on the idea last week.

Zoom out: Hill leaders are still working to get on the same page to get moving on their biggest legislative priority of the year.

Johns Hopkins University said Thursday it's axing more than 2,200 jobs in the U.S. and overseas due to the Trump administration ending over $800 million in USAID funding.

The big picture: The Baltimore-based university appears to be among the hardest-hit research institutions affected by the Trump administration's cuts across the federal government.

• Johns Hopkins said the cuts have forced it to "wind down critical work" in Baltimore and internationally.
• Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced this week the Trump administration was canceling 83% of USAID programs.

Driving the news: "We can confirm that the elimination of foreign aid funding has led to the loss of 1,975 positions in 44 countries internationally and 247 in the United States in the affected programs," the university said in an emailed statement Thursday evening.

• "An additional 29 international and 78 domestic employees will be furloughed with a reduced schedule."
• The university said it's proud of the work at places impacted by the cuts.
• Cuts affected Jhpiego, a recognized expert in maternal health; the Bloomberg School of Public Health, the oldest and largest such school in the U.S.; and the School of Medicine.
• It works "to care for mothers and infants, fight disease, provide clean drinking water, and advance countless other critical, life-saving efforts around the world," the university added in the statement.

What's next: U.S. based workers are being given at least 60 days of advance notice before the reductions or furloughs take effect, per Johns Hopkins.

• The university said it is providing "support with additional benefits, assistance, and resources to help employees navigate this transition and explore new opportunities."
• "For international employees, we will be complying with local employment laws."

A federal judge on Thursday ordered six government agencies to offer fired probationary federal workers their jobs back.

Why it matters: At least 30,000 probationary workers have been fired in DOGE's sweeping remaking of the government. A few federal agencies have called their people back, but most are still not working.

Zoom out: The order is effective immediately, ruled Judge William Alsup, a Clinton appointee who presides in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California.

• Alsup said the Office of Personnel Management's order and the firing process was basically a "sham," noting that some probationary workers had been told that they were fired based on their performance.
• "It is sad, a sad day," said Alsup. "Our government would fire some good employee, and say it was based on performance. When they know good and well, that's a lie."

Zoom in: The agencies ordered to re-hire workers include the Department of Agriculture, Department of Defense, Department of Energy, Department of the Interior, Department of Treasury, and Veterans Affairs.

• Notably the Treasury Department includes the IRS. The tax agency has been hit hard by job cuts in recent weeks.

The big picture: The order comes just as agencies are set to undertake even more firings, or "reduction in force" in federal jargon.

• These reduction memos from each agency are due Thursday and are expected to detail as many as 250,000 job cuts.
• Alsup's decision comes on top of a ruling last week from the Merit Systems Protections Board, a federal agency that reviews worker complaints, ordering the reinstatement of 6,000 workers at the USDA.

Where it stands: In his ruling, Alsup made clear that it is within an agency's right to conduct a reduction in force, as long as it complies with the law.

• "This case is really an attempt to do a reduction in force, but to force it through the OPM," Alsup said.

OPM argued that it did not order these firings — but the judge read from agency letters that made clear that the firings had been ordered by OPM.

• He also pointed to the firing of an employee of the U.S. Forest Service, who had just months earlier received a positive performance review but was told in her termination letter that she was being fired due to poor performance.
• The firing process, he said, "was a sham in order to try to avoid statutory requirements."

What they're saying: The White House "will immediately fight back against this absurd and unconstitutional order," press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement Thursday.

• "A single judge is attempting to unconstitutionally seize the power of hiring and firing from the Executive Branch," she said. "If a federal district court judge would like executive powers, they can try and run for President themselves. "

Catch up quick: The lawsuit was filed by unions representing federal workers, as well as several advocacy groups, including the Coalition to Protect American's National Parks.

• The plaintiffs argued that the Office of Personnel Management didn't have that authority to order these firings, and in an initial ruling last month Alsup agreed.

Earlier this week, lawyers for the White House retracted testimony from the acting chair of the Office of Personnel Management, Charles Ezell, rather than comply with Alsup's request that he testify or be deposed.

• Alsup was not pleased about that — nor with the government's attempt to use press releases to argue that the firings were something agencies did on their own.
• "I want you to know that I've been practicing or serving in this court for over 50 years, and I know how that we get at the truth," Alsup said. "And you're not helping me get at the truth. You're giving me press releases. Sham documents."

Of note: As the hearing came to a close, Alsup apologized for getting worked up.

• "I want to make it clear that I don't think counsel for the government has done anything dishonorable. I've given him a hard time," he said. "He's doing the best he can with the case he's got. Thank you for your service in the Justice Department."

Editor's Note: This story has been updated to remove an erroneously attributed statement.

Senate Democrats are prepared to vote Friday to keep the government open, with not much to show for it.

Why it matters: The outcome will spark the fury of many Democrats and the grassroots of the party, who have lobbied this week for the lawmakers to block the short-term funding bill.

• But it tracks with Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's (D-N.Y.) longstanding advice that it's bad politics to shut down the government.
• Schumer privately told his colleagues Thursday he plans to help break the filibuster on the GOP-led government funding bill, sources told Axios. The New York Times was first to report on his comments.

Zoom in: "While the CR bill is very bad, the potential for a shutdown has consequences for America that are much, much worse," Schumer said Thursday on the Senate floor.

• "A shutdown would give Donald Trump the keys to the city, the state and the country," Schumer said.
• "The shutdown is not a political game. Shutdown means real pain for American families."

Between the lines: Most of Schumer's colleagues will vote against him. But Senate Democrats only need to provide eight votes to help keep the government open.

• Democrats are expected to get amendment votes on the bill, which will give the party members some cover in voting for the package.
• The GOP expects the Democratic votes it needs will come from senators up for tough 2026 races as well as those who are retiring, as we told you last week.
• Schumer and Senate GOP leader John Thune (R-S.D.) will need a time agreement to speed up the vote.

The other side: Their House colleagues aren't buying it.

• "Those games won't fool anyone. It won't trick voters, it won't trick House members. People will not forget it," Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) wrote Thursday on X about a 30-day CR amendment vote.
• "Senate Republicans should back down from screwing over their own constituents," said Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas). "Democrats were elected to fight for working people, not put up a fake fight."
• House Democrats were almost unanimous in opposition on Tuesday. Only Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) voted for the bill.

The bottom line: Schumer ensured he'll be the main Democratic villain of this week's drama. But he'll spare his party the pain of a shutdown and the political consequences no one can predict.

Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), a giant of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, died Thursday due to complications from his cancer treatment, his office announced. He was 77.

What they're saying: "Rep. Grijalva fought a long and brave battle. He passed away this morning due to complications of his cancer treatments," the Arizona Democrat's staff said in a statement.

• The former chair of the House Natural Resources Committee was diagnosed with cancer last April.

Wholesale egg prices are starting to drift lower amid signs that the bird flu is easing, but don't expect to find lower prices at grocery stores yet.

Why it matters: Even as President Trump is claiming victory, his administration is acknowledging that the upcoming Easter holiday could cause prices to jump again.

The big picture: The highly pathogenic avian influenza has led to tens of millions of chickens being culled, triggering shortages and price spikes.

• Many stores are limiting how many eggs shoppers can buy and some restaurants have added temporary egg surcharges.
• Trump on Wednesday took credit for falling prices, saying "we did a lot of things that got the cost of eggs down, very substantially."
• But while wholesale prices have started to tick down, grocery shoppers are still paying more than ever for a dozen eggs.

When are egg prices coming down?

Wholesale egg prices fell by $1.20 to $6.85 per dozen last week, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's March 7 report.

• The department noted that flu outbreaks had slowed over the past two weeks and been "localized, which is providing producers in unaffected regions with an opportunity to make progress in reducing the egg deficit problem the market has been experiencing."
• The latest: The price of Midwest large eggs was $5.23 per dozen on Thursday, down 39% from its peak two weeks earlier, according to Karyn Rispoli, managing editor for eggs in the Americas for price-reporting service Expana.

Yes, but: The price consumers are actually paying still rose 10% from January to February, according to the latest Consumer Price Index released Wednesday.

• Egg prices were up 59% from February 2024 to February 2025.
• The USDA said in a recent report that egg prices are expected to rise by 41.1% this year.

Between the lines: Consumers often don't see wholesale price drops reflected at the grocery store — at least not immediately.

• "There's usually (at least) a two-to-three-week lag between wholesale and retail pricing, and since the market only started correcting last Monday, shoppers haven't seen the impact of these lower prices at the grocery store just yet," Rispoli said Thursday.
• "The main driver behind this drop is weakened demand, largely due to widespread purchasing restrictions and elevated shelf prices," she said. "Right now, consumers are still experiencing the peak of the market in terms of what they're paying at checkout."

Easter could cause egg prices to soar

State of play: Easter is traditionally one of the highest demand periods for eggs with eggs playing a big part of Easter traditions and the Jewish holiday of Passover.

• This year, Easter is April 20, the latest date since 2019. Passover starts April 12.
• "We're going into Easter season. This is always the highest price for eggs," Agricultural Secretary Brooke Rollins said Tuesday. "We expect it to perhaps inch back up."

What they're saying: Kevin Bergquist, Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute sector manager, said in a new report that egg prices "will likely remain highly variable for the near future, but at a higher-than-usual level."

• "In the short term, we will likely see a continuation of high egg prices," Bergquist said. "The Easter season is just around the corner, and the demand for eggs is not abating."

The bottom line: If egg prices are still high for Easter, expect families to turn to alternatives like painting and hiding potatoes, an idea that sprouted in 2023 because of high prices.

More from Axios:

• Why food prices are still high, five years after COVID
• Government suspends free COVID test distribution program
• Walmart clashes with China after asking suppliers to absorb tariffs

A new documentary on the Columbia University student Palestinian rights movement featuring now-detained graduate Mahmoud Khalil will be released at a film festival later this month.

Why it matters: The film, months in the making, gives more insight into the plight of Khalil's family from Palestine during the 1948 Nakba to decades in refugee camps in Syria and his role in 2024 encampment protests.

The big picture: Khalil remains detained at an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facility in Louisiana amid a legal battle to prevent his deportation from the U.S. after the Trump administration ordered his removal.

• He was arrested last week after the Department of Homeland Security concluded he was actively supporting Hamas but not materially supporting the terror group, a White House official said.
• His detention has sparked national student protests around the country.

Zoom in: Watermelon Pictures announced Thursday that it has completed "The Encampments," a documentary chronicling the Columbia University encampments and the international wave of student activism they ignited.

• The film is scheduled to debut at the Copenhagen International Documentary Festival in Copenhagen on March 25.
• "The film ensures the students in (the) U.S and Gaza are heard, their actions are remembered, and the fight for Palestinian liberation continues," Grammy Award-Winning rapper Macklemore, a co-producer, said in a statement.

Khalil is one of the main protagonists in the film.

• "I was born in a Palestinian refugee camp in southern Damascus in Syria. My family's history in Palestine actually goes back as long as my grandparents can trace it," Khalil says in the documentary.
• Khalil talks about how his grandparents were violently forced off their land during the 1948 war and became refugees.

Context: Until now, reporters have been trying to piece together Khalil's biography and determine why the Trump administration targeted him first amid a promised crackdown on immigrants who voice support for the Palestinians.

• ICE records show Khalil is a Syrian national and a citizen of Algeria.
• He was one of the most visible activists in the Columbia protests and served as a student negotiator.
• Khalil finished his master's degree in public administration at Columbia's School of International and Public Affairs in December and now holds a green card after he married his wife, a U.S. citizen.

Zoom out: Secretary of State Marco Rubio was presented with evidence from the DHS review and determined that Khalil acted against U.S. foreign policy positions, the official said.

• U.S. law allows the secretary of state to deport a green card holder if that person is deemed to have "potentially serious adverse foreign policy consequences for the United States."
• Green card holders can be removed from the U.S. for many other reasons, like breaking U.S. law. Khalil has not been charged with any crime.
• President Trump praised the Khalil arrest this week, promising it's the first of "many to come."

The intrigue: In an interview with NPR on Thursday, Troy Edgar, the deputy secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, struggled to explain what Khalil did to face deportation.

• "I think you can see it on TV, right? This is somebody that we've invited and allowed the student to come into the country, and he's put himself in the middle of the process of basically pro-Palestinian activity," he said.
• But he declined to say what specific actions Khalil committed to amount to removal.

What we're watching: The legal challenge to Khalil might ultimately come down to the Supreme Court, which would decide how far the secretary of state can determine whether a permanent resident can be removed for speech.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a press conference in Moscow on Thursday that he needs more clarifications before Russia agrees to a ceasefire with Ukraine.

Why it matters: The U.S. and Ukraine both endorsed an unconditional 30-day ceasefire on Tuesday that calls for all air and artillery strikes to stop and fighting to cease all along the front lines. Putin raised doubts about that idea and said any ceasefire should also be part of a process that addresses the "root causes of this crisis."

He noted that his troops had been retaking occupied territory in Russia's Kursk region in recent days and advancing along the front lines in Ukraine, and asked, "What would happen during those 30 days?"

• Specifically, Putin raised the fate of the Ukrainian soldiers still in Kursk, asking, "Would it mean that everybody there would leave? Should we release them after they committed serious crimes against civilians?"
• But Putin also thanked President Trump for his efforts and took a less hardline position than his senior aide, Yuri Ushakov, who said earlier on Thursday that Trump's proposal was "nothing other than a temporary timeout for Ukrainian soldiers."
• "The idea is good and we absolutely support it, but there are issues we need to discuss, and I think we need to negotiate with our American colleagues," Putin said.

What's next: White House envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Moscow on Thursday to meet with Putin about the ceasefire proposal.

• Ushakov said Putin and Witkoff would meet privately on Thursday night.

This is a developing story. Check back for updates.

A coalition of 21 Democratic attorneys general on Thursday sued the Trump administration over its plan to dismantle the U.S. Department of Education.

Why it matters: President Trump's Education Secretary, Linda McMahon, confirmed the mass layoffs this week were the first step toward shuttering the department.

Driving the news: The attorneys general argue that the recent mass layoff of department staff was "illegal and unconstitutional. They're seeking a court order to stop further disruption.

• The lawsuit asserts that "only Congress may abolish an agency it created." McMahon did acknowledge this week that Congress would have to be involved in disbanding the department.
• McMahon has the authority to "modestly restructure" the department, but her permissions are limited, the lawsuit said.
• However, it noted, "She is not permitted to eliminate or disrupt functions required by statute, nor can she transfer the department's responsibilities to another agency outside of its statutory authorization."

The big picture: The mass layoffs will cause loss or delays in funding or support "impacting nearly every aspect of K-12 education" in the states that sued, the lawsuit said.

• Impacts will include teacher shortages and a loss in professional development and salaries for specialists who work with students with disabilities, the attorneys general said.
• The cuts "will result in lost educational opportunities for students that cannot be recovered or remedied," they wrote.
• The recent layoffs will acutely hurt low-income and disabled students, who rely on supports provided via federal funding, New York Attorney General Letitia James said in a statement.

Zoom in: The attorneys general participating in the lawsuit are from Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington, Wisconsin, Vermont, and the District of Columbia.

• Democratic attorneys general have launched challenges to several of the Trump administration's actions and executive orders.
• On Thursday afternoon, the case was assigned to a Magistrate Judge Page Kelley in the U.S. District Court of Massachusetts.

Read the lawsuit:

Go deeper:

• Education secretary says mass layoffs first step toward shutting down DoE
• Trump-voting states have more to lose if Education Department dismantled

Editor's note: The story has been updated with the judge assigned to the case.

Alcohol appears to be one of the earliest casualties of President Trump's trade war, one he escalated Thursday with a threat to impose massive levies on European wine and Champagne.

Why it matters: The alcohol industries may not have had the same influence in the tariff fight so far as automakers, but there's still billions of dollars in revenue and thousands of jobs at stake.

Driving the news: On Wednesday the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, prompting retaliation from top trading partners like Canada and the European Union.

• The EU quickly reimposed previously suspended counter-measures, including 50% tariffs on American whiskey as of April 1.
• On Thursday, Trump responded, threatening a 200% tariff on European wine and Champagne if the whiskey levy wasn't removed.
• "This will be great for the Wine and Champagne businesses in the U.S.," Trump posted on Truth Social.

Yes, but: Historically, it's not.

• In 2020 the U.S. Wine Trade Alliance begged Trump to suspend a previous set of retaliatory tariffs on EU exports that had been imposed in 2019, citing their significant impact on the hospitality industries.

By the numbers: The U.S. imports more than $6.7 billion worth of wine a year, per the American Association of Wine Economists, with about two-thirds of that coming from France and Italy.

What they're saying: "We urge President Trump to secure a spirits agreement with the EU to get us back to zero-for-zero tariffs, which will create U.S. jobs and increase manufacturing and exports for the American hospitality sector," the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States said in a statement.

• "We want toasts not tariffs."

💭 Thought bubble, from Axios economics reporter Courtenay Brown: The EU is quickly learning the risk of trying to hit Trump where it hurts, like red-state industries.

• He doesn't back down, he doubles down. "If you make him unhappy, he responds unhappy," as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Bloomberg TV Thursday.

The bottom line: To paraphrase FDR, what America needs now is a drink — but not if it costs 200% more.

David Solomon — Goldman Sachs chairman and CEO — said after President Trump's visit to the Business Roundtable this week that "the business community understands what the president is trying to do with tariffs."

• "The business community is always going to want lower tariffs ... everywhere in the world," Solomon told Fox Business' Maria Bartiromo on Wednesday. "At the moment, there is some uncertainty — the market is digesting that."

Solomon told Bartiromo that Trump projected a "sense of optimism" during his closed-door remarks Tuesday to the biggest-ever meeting of the BRT, made up of the CEOs of America's largest companies.

• Solomon, whose firm manages or supervises trillions of dollars in assets, praised the administration for being "engaged with the business community. ... That's a different experience than what we've had over the course of the last four years."
• He said business wants to see "more specific actions on the regulatory front to unleash more animal spirits. ... My expectation is you will see, as you get through the year, a pickup in activity across both the capital markets and M&A."

One CEO in the room for Trump's remarks told Mike: "Let's slow down and have a little perspective. We may not like how fast this is going, and have real concerns. But let's play a long game."

• The CEO told us that amid the current uncertainty, many BRT members are medium-term and long-term optimistic that Trump policies will encourage capital spending, economic growth and consumer activity.

🥊 Reality check: A front-page story in today's Wall Street Journal is headlined, "CEO Frustrations With Trump Over Trade Mount — in Private."

• Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a well-known professor at Yale School of Management, who organized a CEO Caucus in Washington on Tuesday, said he heard "universal revulsion against the Trump economic policies ... They're also especially horrified about Canada."
• Trump has been dismissive of CEOs' concerns about tariff uncertainty. Last weekend, he told Bartiromo they had "plenty of clarity."

Stephen Schwarzman — chairman, CEO and co-founder of Blackstone, and a top Trump donor — told reporters in India yesterday that the tariffs would, "at the end of the day," lead to a significant increase in manufacturing activity in the U.S., the Financial Times reports ($).

• "Given the size of the U.S., that tends to be a good thing for the world," Schwarzman said.

Solomon added that tariffs are getting the headlines, but CEOs "are excited about some of the tailwinds ... the move to lower regulation. Regulation has been a significant headwind to growth in investment."

• "Tax policy is going to be a big discussion as we move forward, energy policy," he said. "The more we can have certainty on the policy agenda ... the better that is going to support capital investment and growth."

Solomon concluded his Fox interview: "When there's change, there's uncertainty — it takes a while for people to absorb and adopt. But I continue to be incredibly optimistic about the United States and the direction of travel. We have an incredibly nimble and versatile economy."

• Go deeper: Watch Solomon's video.

The White House is withdrawing the nomination of Dave Weldon to be the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), per a source close to Senate health committee and another source familiar.

Why it matters: The former Florida congressman was scheduled to appear before the committee this morning for a since-cancelled confirmation hearing. But his views questioning certain vaccines have garnered attention since he was nominated months ago and were sure to play a prominent role in questioning.

• HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. himself said Weldon wasn't ready, per one of the sources.

Background: Weldon is an internal medicine doctor who served in the House of Representatives from 1995 through 2009. While in Congress, he was one of the sponsors of a bill that would have banned mercury from vaccines.

• In a 2007 statement on a different bill he sponsored, Weldon wrote that "legitimate questions persist regarding the possible association between the mercury-based preservative, thimerosal, and the childhood epidemic of neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs), including autism."
• Thimerosal has been used as a preservative in vaccines, although it was taken out of childhood vaccines in 2001, per the CDC. Many studies have found no evidence of harm of thimerosal in low doses in vaccines.
• Studies have also found no evidence of a connection between vaccines and autism.

Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) said Weldon repeated debunked claims about vaccines in a meeting they had last month. She called on the administration to pick a nominee "who at bare minimum believes in basic science and will help lead CDC's important work to monitor and prevent deadly outbreaks."

Polish President Andrzej Duda has called on the U.S. to move some of its nuclear arsenal to Polish territory to deter potential future Russian aggression.

Why it matters: The move would likely anger Moscow, which views NATO's encroachment — and any shift of its member countries' military might — eastward as a threat.

• Duda's suggestion comes as the Trump administration is engaging the Kremlin on a ceasefire proposal with Ukraine.

Driving the news: Duda told the Financial Times in an interview published Thursday that the U.S. could move nuclear weapons stored in Western Europe or the U.S. to Poland, and that he'd discussed the idea with U.S. envoy to Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg.

• "The borders of NATO moved east in 1999, so 26 years later there should also be a shift of the Nato infrastructure east. For me this is obvious," Duda said. 
• "I think it's not only that the time has come, but that it would be safer if those weapons were already here," he added.
• Duda highlighted the fact that Russia had announced a similar move in 2023 to move nuclear weapons to its ally, Belarus.

The big picture: Duda's plea comes as Europe prepares for a new geopolitical future, in which the U.S. plays a smaller role in guaranteeing European security.

• Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said last week that Poland would need to explore "opportunities related to nuclear weapons" due to the "profound change of American geopolitics."
• France, the only nuclear power in the European Union, has signaled it could be willing to extend its nuclear umbrella to cover its allies, a move Duda was open to.
• Duda noted it would "take decades" for Poland to develop its own nuclear weapons.

Go deeper: Trump's nuclear dilemma: "Greatest threat" is getting bigger

President Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Moscow on Thursday ahead of his meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin, according to flightradar data and a source familiar with the trip.

Why it matters: The Moscow talks are crucial to Trump's efforts to secure a 30-day ceasefire in the war between Russia and Ukraine.

• The visit could also lead to a phone call between Trump and Putin on Thursday.

Driving the news: On Tuesday, the U.S. and Ukraine agreed on a plan for a 30-day ceasefire in the 3-year war.

• President Trump said on Wednesday in an Oval Office meeting with Ireland's prime minister that "it's up to Russia now" to respond to the ceasefire proposal.
• "We are going to know very soon. I've gotten some positive messages, but a positive message means nothing."

The other side: Putin's foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov spoke to White House national security adviser Mike Waltz on Wednesday and discussed the ceasefire proposal.

• Ushakov told Russian media on Thursday that he gave Waltz Russia's comments about the proposal and stressed the need for "long-term settlement." "The proposed ceasefire is nothing more than temporary breather for Ukrainian forces," Putin's adviser said.
• He added that Russia doesn't need steps "that just imitate peace actions in Ukraine."

Go deeper: Sen. Mark Kelly brings back horror stories from Ukraine

OpenAI's chief global affairs officer Chris Lehane told Axios in an interview this week that it's time to accelerate AI policy for the Trump era two years after ChatGPT exploded onto the scene.

Why it matters: For top AI companies, the policy message has shifted from begging for regulation and warning of dangers to projecting confidence about the policies needed to keep growing and beat China in the AI race.

• "There's a real focus from the administration on developing an AI strategy to ensure U.S. economic competitiveness and national security are prioritized," Lehane said. "Our work stream is intersecting with where the administration is going."
• Lehane said he was at the White House last week and has had many meetings with Trump administration officials about AI policy, and he expects a full strategy to be released by the summer.

The big picture: The White House is collecting comments on what its national AI strategy should be in what is amounting to a total reset of policy from the Biden administration.

• Lehane says the U.S. view on AI is shifting as the industry grows more comfortable and ambitious with the technology.
• "Globally, the conversation around AI has changed," said Lehane. "There's been a definite pivot. ... Maybe the biggest risk here is actually missing out on the opportunity. There was a pretty significant vibe shift when people became more aware and educated on this technology and what it means."

OpenAI's memo to the White House, seen early by Axios, focuses on a number of key things the company deems necessary for the U.S. to lead on AI with democratic values and stay ahead of China:

• pre-emption of state AI laws;
• balanced rules around what advanced AI technology can be exported abroad;
• allowing AI to learn from copyrighted material;
• infrastructure investments for AI growth; and
• government adoption of AI.

State laws on AI assume "AI is like social media," Lehane said, while the company believes it is more like electricity, a key underpinning of systems people use every day.

• A voluntary structure housed at a re-imagined U.S. AI Safety Institute could test models as part of a public-private partnership in exchange for liability protection from dozens of state-level AI laws, which are creating uncertainty in the market, Lehane said.
• Export rules should be considered on a tiered basis to ensure there's a balance between protecting U.S. intellectual property and making sure it's in enough global markets, he said.
• OpenAI also hopes to see fair use copyright rules continuing to be applied to AI so models can be trained on as much information as possible, he said, calling copyright "a national security issue."

Flashback: In May 2023, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman appeared before Congress and asked for a heavy approach by Congress, including an AI licensing agency and independent audits.

The bottom line: For Lehane and OpenAI, fears about AI are dwindling, and the vibe shift is here to stay.

• "Companies like ours have gotten pretty comfortable with how we're deploying this stuff in a responsible way, and understand the real challenge here is to make sure this opportunity is realized."

President Trump's public intervention on behalf of Tesla marks the most extraordinary chapter yet in the partisan war over America's preeminent electric vehicle brand.

Why it matters: Elon Musk's assault on the federal government has supercharged Tesla's evolution from liberal status symbol to pride-of-MAGA protectorate. The company's stock has taken a beating along the way.

• "We struggle to think of anything analogous in the history of the automotive industry, in which a brand has lost so much value so quickly," says J.P. Morgan analyst Ryan Brinkman.

What's happening: Musk's efforts to fire thousands of federal workers and dismantle whole government agencies have sparked "Tesla Takedown" protests in at least 100 cities over the last month.

• Those protests spurred vandalism of vehicles and violent incidents at Tesla facilities — including the use of Molotov cocktails.
• Some current Tesla owners have embraced a quieter form of resistance by applying bumper stickers disavowing Musk's politics — or badges disguising the vehicle's branding.

Zoom in: With Tesla's stock hemorrhaging $800 billion in market cap since December, Trump held an event at the White House Tuesday to publicly rally support for his billionaire benefactor's brand.

• Standing alongside Musk and a row of Teslas on the South Lawn, Trump said he'd buy a Model S sedan for White House staff and threatened to classify anti-Tesla violence as domestic terrorism.
• Photographers captured a shot of Trump holding a Tesla sales script that listed out prices and features, a brazen challenge to ethical norms as the president said he hoped the event would boost Tesla sales.
• "He's built this great company, and he shouldn't be penalized because he's a patriot," Trump said.

Fox News favorite Sean Hannity boasted of buying one, too, and said he'd give a Tesla away on his website — an offer Trump was quick to share with his own social media followers.

Zoom out: "Tesla is becoming a political symbol of Trump and DOGE, and that is a bad thing for the brand," warned Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, a longtime Tesla bull.

• Through the first two months of 2025, Tesla sales are down 71% in Germany, 45% in Norway, 44% in France and 44% in Spain, according to registration data reported by Electrek.
• Sales have also been slumping in the critical markets of California and China, Bloomberg reported.
• The company does not report U.S. sales, but Tesla's U.S. registrations fell 11% in January, according to S&P Global Mobility.

Between the lines: The irony of MAGA's support for Tesla — whose existence is inextricably linked to the fight against climate change — is not lost on Republicans.

• In a 2022 analysis by Scarborough Research, Teslas were — by far — the car most likely to be associated with Democratic owners.
• Musk's brand is now poisonous among Democrats, and it's unclear whether his popularity with Republicans — or Trump's endorsement — will drive conservatives to buy Teslas in meaningful numbers.

The other side: Plenty of investors on Wall Street are still bullish on Tesla, and Musk has vowed to double production in the U.S. within two years as Trump pushes for a manufacturing renaissance.

• The company, amid Wall Street concerns about cash flow this quarter, has been offering a variety of incentives to juice sales, including 0% financing deals (as long as buyers put down a large down payment).
• "Car buying means something different to everyone and if the price is right, you can still get some consumers to put their personal feelings aside," Ivan Drury, an analyst at car-research site Edmunds, tells Axios.

The bottom line: Ives, the Tesla mega-bull, warns the next few months will bring a "moment of truth" for investors who want to see Musk recommit to the company — and decouple from DOGE.

• Musk's biggest ambitions for Tesla include self-driving cars and humanoid robots, with plans to launch a self-driving car network in Austin, Texas, later this year.
• Musk, who did not respond to an Axios request for comment, told investors in January that 2025 may end up as "the most important year in Tesla's history."

The number of migrants trying to travel through the dangerous jungles of the Darién Gap to get from Colombia into Panama has fallen dramatically in recent months to the lowest levels since the pandemic, new data show.

Why it matters: The decline is the latest sign that fewer migrants from South America are risking the treacherous, 2,600-mile journey north to the U.S. border in the early days of President Trump's immigration crackdown.

• The number of migrants illegally crossing the U.S. southern border plummeted in February to its lowest level in decades.

Zoom in: Only 408 migrants traveled northward through the Darién Gap in February, according to Migración Panama, an agency in Panama that keeps track of migration in the region.

• That's the fewest in a month since November 2020, when 365 traveled the path during the pandemic.
• Nearly 82,000 people traveled through the Darién Gap in August 2023, data collected by Migración Panama and reviewed by the human rights advocacy group Washington Office on Latin America found.
• The August 2023 surge led to a historic rise of migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border for weeks afterward.
• During the Biden administration, monthly traffic in the Darién Gap ranged from a few thousand to tens of thousands.

State of play: White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on Tuesday touted the drop in Darién Gap traffic as part of Trump's overall immigration enforcement.

• "The Trump administration is committed to delivering on President Trump's mandate from the American people to stop the invasion of migrants, secure our borders, and enforce our immigration laws," White House spokesperson Kush Desai told Axios.
• Trump border czar Tom Homan promised weeks before the president took office that he'd "shut down" the Darién Gap.

The big picture: The Darién Gap is a 60-mile, roadless, treacherous jungle of crocodiles, snakes, harsh terrain and drug gangs that human rights groups say exposes migrants to harm and disease.

• It's the only break in the Pan-American Highway, a 19,000-mile-long network of roads that runs from Alaska to the southern tip of Argentina.

Between the lines: No one knows precisely why migrant traffic along the U.S.-Mexico border and in the Darién Gap has fallen so much, but immigration experts tell Axios that it's likely because migrants and smuggling networks are waiting to see how Trump's enforcement actions play out.

• Boston College law professor Daniel Kanstroom tells Axios that Mexico is also intercepting more migrants, and many migrants aren't trying to go north because they don't know if they'll be able to apply for asylum in the U.S.
• "We've seen this for decades. It's just episodic. It'll go back up again, because the forces that move people north have not changed. It's a temporary low," Kanstroom said.

An Axios analysis of Darién Gap migration numbers found that most migrants traveling the route from 2020 through 2024 were from Venezuela, followed by those from Haiti and Ecuador.

• Experts say such migrants were escaping political unrest, gang violence, weather disasters caused by climate change and extreme poverty.

America's metros are growing faster than the country overall, driven largely by foreign immigration, per the U.S. Census Bureau.

Why it matters: An exodus of city-dwellers rocked many U.S. metros during the COVID-19 pandemic, but some are now clawing back residents (and their productivity, creativity, tax dollars, etc.)

Driving the news: The number of people living in U.S. metro areas rose by almost 3.2 million between 2023 and 2024, the Census Bureau said today — a gain of about 1.1%.

• By comparison, the total U.S. population rose by 1% during that time.
• Nearly 90% of U.S. metro areas grew from 2023 to 2024, the bureau says.

Zoom in: Some metros hit hardest by pandemic population loss — think New York; Washington, D.C. and San Francisco — grew between 2023 and 2024, though some are still down relative to 2020, as seen above.

Between the lines: Cities can thank international migration for this latest population spike.

• "All of the nation's 387 metro areas had positive net international migration between 2023 and 2024, and it accounted for nearly 2.7 million of the total population gain in metro areas," the bureau said in a statement accompanying the new data.

How it works: The bureau bases these estimates on current data for births, deaths and migration, all of which affect overall population.

What's next: Demographers and other researchers will be keeping a close eye on how Trump administration policies might affect immigration levels.

Tech evangelists predict the arrival of "superintelligence" any year now, but others doubt AI will ever produce its own Leonardos and Einsteins.

Driving the news: In a post on X Tuesday, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman touted the company's development of "a new model that is good at creative writing" and showed off its work — a thousand-word "metafictional" composition on "AI and grief."

Why it matters: Creativity could be the final hurdle for AI to leap in proving it's humanity's peer — but until then, many see it as the last bastion of humanity's irreplaceability.

The big picture: Whether telling stories or researching scientific breakthroughs, today's generative AI isn't very good at creative leaps and novel insights.

• It's bounded by what it "knows" — the data it is trained on — and how it "thinks," by guessing the next word or pixel that best fulfills its prompt.

In science, our AI models aren't going to push the boundaries because they're too eager to please people and prove their utility, Thomas Wolf, Hugging Face's co-founder and chief science officer, wrote on X last week.

• Wolf called AI that does research "yes-men on servers."
• "To create an Einstein in a data center, we don't just need a system that knows all the answers, but rather one that can ask questions nobody else has thought of or dared to ask," Wolf argued.
• The benchmarks we're using to gauge AI's advances "consist of very difficult questions — usually written by PhDs — but with clear, closed-end answers. ... Real scientific breakthroughs will come not from answering known questions, but from asking challenging new questions and questioning common conceptions and previous ideas."

Getting AI to produce compelling art looks even more unlikely.

• Most work produced by AI is literally derivative. Of course, most artists, especially at the start of their careers, learn by imitation, and many human artworks are effectively collages, rewrites or remixes.
• But memorable artists develop distinctive voices by mixing their own experiences and obsessions with whatever they've learned from the artists they admire — and even their collages "sound like them."
• People seek out art because hearing those voices inspires them, leaving them feeling connected with the artist in a way that they cherish.

The short story Altman posted showed formal facility — but many of the responses on X found it, as I did, more exercise than expression.

Between the lines: Plenty of artists will find AI a valuable creative tool or an aid to brainstorming, just as many researchers will employ it to speed their work.

• But creation is likely to remain hard work for human beings. It takes effort to wrestle a vague idea in your head into words, images or any other material for an audience to encounter.
• This is the sort of friction that AI visionaries sometimes promise to liberate us from.

Yes, but: "Friction-free art" is inert. What sends off sparks is the struggle of a person's urge to express something against the limits of form and medium.

The bottom line: LLMs are like youngsters who have read a lot but do not have experience of the world. And right now there's not much of a way for AIs to get it.

• An LLM has never felt sunlight on its arm or raindrops on its head, known a parent or a child, given birth or faced death.
• It doesn't feel the need to share such experiences or to shape them into works of writing, or music, or any other form.

What's next: Maybe the fusion of generative AI with robotics will surprise us, and an embodied LLM will find itself moving toward something humans might recognize as art.

• But it's very possible AI will never be truly creative because it has no impulse to play around for the heck of it, to impress peers or best rivals, or to leave a little mark on the world. People give AI prompts, whereas human artists get their prompts from their own lives.

The world's largest retailer is clashing with China over the company's efforts to reduce the impact of President Trump's increased tariffs.

Why it matters: Walmart — whose brand is inextricably linked to low prices — is trying to leverage its monumental size to mitigate its own costs from the billowing international trade war.

Driving the news: Officials from China's Ministry of Commerce met with Walmart executives on Tuesday to cry foul over the retailer pressuring local suppliers to absorb tariff hikes, according to a Chinese state media report.

• The Ministry of Commerce called for Chinese and American companies to work together in response to the tariffs.

Threat level: "If Walmart insists" ... "then what awaits Walmart is not just talk," state broadcaster China Central Television said on social media Wednesday, according to the WSJ.

Walmart did not respond to requests for comment.

• WSJ, citing people familiar with Tuesday's meeting, reported that the company offered to work with Chinese suppliers to "find ways to avoid damaging the interests of the parties involved."

Zoom out: Walmart's retail business in China is growing but was still less than 3% of the company's total sales in the 2024 fiscal year, according to an SEC filing.

• In that respect, the company has more to lose in the U.S. and other core markets if increased costs lead to price hikes.

Yes, but: Its exposure to Chinese supply lines is more substantial. Reuters has estimated that 60% of Walmart's shipments came from the country in 2023.

• Walmart has also made significant investments in its Chinese supply chain, having committed in 2019 to build or upgrade more than 10 logistics distribution centers in the country over the next 10 to 20 years.

Follow the money: "The retailer has historically had strong bargaining power over its Chinese suppliers and requests for lower prices have mostly been met," Bloomberg reported last week, citing people familiar with the matter. "But the scope of the recent requests are unusual and leaves manufacturers weighing whether to absorb the costs to maintain a longer-term business relationship."

💭 Nathan's thought bubble: Walmart is playing with fire but retains a degree of leverage because it's such an enormous buyer and because it can source more products from other countries if Chinese suppliers don't cooperate.