Top Biden economistsshared a lesson for the Trump administration and beyond on Friday: Whenever the next crisis arrives, the government should not hold back in its response efforts.
Why it matters: The Biden pandemic bill has been criticized for its size and the role it might have played in the inflation crisis that contributed to the administration's election loss. Still, White House economists warn that doing too little in future crises could be an economic disaster.
What they're saying: The warning comes in the final Biden-era Economic Report of the President — issued by the Council of Economic Advisers — that was released on Friday.
"There are risks to robust fiscal action—including rising prices—but a strong fiscal response can deliver durable growth, and the risk of underreacting to a large global shock is material," the economists wrote.
The big picture: The report acknowledges that many pandemic fears that might have inspired the 2021 American Rescue Plan did not bear out.
"With full information about the future, policymakers may have allocated fiscal support differently," they noted.
The intrigue: "The emergence of inflation does not negate the wisdom of a strong fiscal response," the economists noted. The 2020s inflation shock was global, suggesting U.S. fiscal support was not totally responsible for higher prices, they said.
"Inflation harms businesses and families across the income distribution, but the prospect of future inflation must be balanced against labor market pain amid a large, negative shock."
The Fed is "well-positioned to respond to demand-driven inflation when it arises," they added.
The bottom line: Inflation stuck around far longer than most policymakers anticipated and weighed heavily on consumers.
Still, America had the strongest economic recovery of all rich nations — a lesson that Biden economists want lawmakers to remember.
The Supreme Court seemed inclined Friday to uphold a law that would ban TikTok in the U.S.
Why it matters: One of the most popular social media apps in the country may disappear next week.
State of play: The court heard oral arguments Friday over the new law that requires TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, to either sell TikTok or shut it down in the U.S by Jan. 19. The law passed last year with broad bipartisan support and was signed by President Biden.
TikTok and a group of its users challenged the law, saying it violates their First Amendment rights.
Congress said the law was necessary because ByteDance is controlled by the Chinese government, and that its ability to harvest vast amounts of personal information from American users is therefore a national security threat.
Zoom in: Most of the justices homed in Friday on one central point: The law would allow TikTok to keep operating if it used an algorithm other than ByteDance's. And ByteDance, as a Chinese company, doesn't have First Amendment rights.
"The law doesn't say TikTok has to shut down. It says ByteDance has to divest," Justice Amy Coney Barrett said.
"The law is only targeted at this foreign corporation that doesn't have First Amendment rights. Whatever effect it has, it has," Justice Elena Kagan said.
"Congress doesn't care what's on TikTok," Chief Justice John Roberts said. "Congress is fine with the expression."
"It doesn't' say, 'TikTok, you can't speak,'" Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson said.
All of those statements came during the justices' tough questioning of Noel Francisco, the lawyer representing TikTok.
Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar, defending the law on behalf of the federal government, also faced tough questions.
Several justices seemed wary about one of the law's stated justifications — that the Chinese government could manipulate which content TikTok users see. That rationale does seem to have some First Amendment implications, they suggested.
Some justices also questioned whether there might be a less restrictive way to make sure Americans know about China's potential influence over TikTok.
What's next: The court will likely rule quickly — given the looming Jan. 19 deadline.
The wildfires that have killed 10 people and razed about 10,000 structures this week continued to rage across Los Angeles County on Friday.
The big picture: The fires are already among the most destructive recorded in the state.
Although firefighters have made some progress, the high winds that helped fuel the blazes will remain high through Friday and are expected to pick back up early next week.
The latest: A mandatory curfew has been issued for thePalisades and Eaton fire areas and all mandatory evacuation zones, Los Aangeles County Sheriff Robert Luna said at a press conference Friday.
The curfew — from 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. — is intended to boost public safety and discourage looting and burglaries.
About 153,000 residents remain under evacuation orders Friday, Luna said.
Kevin McGowan, director of the Los Angeles County Office of Emergency Management, apologized for an erroneous evacuation alert that was sent to some residents Thursday.
"There is an extreme amount of frustration, anger, fear, with regards to the erroneous messages ... I can't express enough how sorry I am for this experience," McGowan said.
State of play: The fires have burned through nearly 36,000 acres already, per CalFire.
The Palisades Fire has spread across over 20,438 acres in the area between Malibu and Santa Monica and was 8% contained as of Friday morning.
The Kenneth Fire, which erupted Thursday in the Calabasas and Hidden Hills areas, stood at 1,000 acres and 35% containment Friday.
The Hurst Fire, which has burned 771 acres in the San Fernando Valley, was 37% contained. The Lidia Fire, spread across 395 acres in a rural, mountainous area near Acton, was 75% contained.
The Sunset Fire in the Hollywood Hills was 100% contained Thursday. Other fires in Pacoima, Hollywood and Studio City have been extinguished, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass said at the press conference Friday.
The big picture: President Biden announced Thursday the federal government will cover 100% of California's disaster assistance costs for the wildfires.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Thursday that the state was activating additional National Guard troops to assist in firefighting efforts.
Sheriff Luna confirmed Friday that the California National Guard had been deployed to the Eaton Fire area Thursday and that more National Guard members were expected in the next "12-24 hours."
Zoom out: The blazes have been propelled by dry conditions and high winds, hitting after many parts of Southern California had no meaningful rainfall for more than eight months.
Why it matters: A robust December employment report suggests the labor market is heating up — or at least not meaningfully cooling — as 2025 begins.
Catch up quick: The jobless rate fell, employers added to their payrolls, a larger share of the adult population was working, and wages rose at a healthy pace last month.
That makes the outlook for further Fed interest rate cuts more remote. Another cut later this month now looks to be off the table, and market odds of a rate cut in March fell sharply Friday morning.
With a solid labor market, officials can move more gingerly as price pressures look stickier.
What they're saying: "I have more confidence that the job market is not deteriorating," Goolsbee tells Axios. "There is a statistical pattern that when unemployment goes up, it tends to keep going up. I have more comfort now that we did stabilize and this time is quite different than previous business cycles."
By the numbers: The U.S. economy added 256,000 jobs last month — the most since March 2024 and about 100,000 (!) more than economists had expected.
That partly reflects a bounce back from hurricane-induced payrolls weakness in the fall, but the strength is echoed in other data.
The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2%. (Remember the recession jitters that followed the jobless rate jump last summer? That looks increasingly more like a head fake.)
The share of employed prime-age workers (those aged between 25 and 54) ticked up, rising 0.1% to 80.5% and recovering some of the losses since September.
Average hourly earnings, a measure of wage growth, rose 0.3% in December and have increased by 3.9% over the previous 12 months.
The big picture: The final data point for 2024 came in hot, nearly matching the job gains that kicked off the year. Still, relative to 2023, the labor market has slowed a bit.
The economy added an average of 186,000 jobs per month last year, down from the 251,000 in 2023.
The intrigue: Bond markets sold off on the news, driving an upturn in yields amid diminished prospects for Fed rate cuts.
The yield on the U.S. 10-year government bond rose to 4.78% on Friday morning, the highest level since late 2023. That rate was 3.62% in mid-September when the Fed commenced its rate-cutting campaign.
The Fed started its rate-cutting cycle with an eye on the labor market that, at the time, looked wobbly.
Fears about the job market have since receded. Now there is a closer eye on inflation that has already ceased cooling, with risks that President-elect Trump's trade and immigration policies might reignite it.
"I think the most material thing is this question of, do you think the economy is overheating, or do you think we're in a stabilizing range with inflation getting back to target?" Goolsbee says.
The Fed has cut rates by a full percentage point since September and Goolsbee says he still thinks "we have some to go."
The bottom line: Trump will inherit a labor market that has thrived under the weight of high inflation and high interest rates.
Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Axios VisualsThe U.S. economy added 256,000 jobs in the final month of 2024, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%, the Labor Department said on Friday.
The U.S. economy added 256,000 jobs in the final month of 2024, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%, the Labor Department said on Friday.
Why it matters: Hiring unexpectedly roared in December, capping a year of resilient labor market conditions that defied naysayers and kept the economy humming.
The report is being watched closely by Federal Reserve officials. Friday's strong figures will likely support expectations that the central bank might hold interest rates steady later this month, as the labor market shows few signs of slowing down.
By the numbers: The number is well above the roughly 155,000 jobs economists anticipated were added last month.
In terms of revisions, the government said there were 212,000 payrolls in November — 15,000 fewer jobs than initially forecast.
Meanwhile, jobs growth in October was revised slightly higher by 7,000 jobs to 43,000 payrolls.
What to watch: Jobs growth has held up, without the much-feared surge in layoffs, raising prospects that the economy can achieve a soft landing.
But it's no guarantee that will continue. Inflation progress has stalled out, prompting many Fed officials to roll back how much the central bank anticipates lowering rates this year.
President-elect Trump said late Thursday that a meeting is in the works with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss ending the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine.
Why it matters: Trump said on the campaign trail that he would swiftly end the nearly three-year-old war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office.
Driving the news: Putin"wants to meet, and we are setting it up," Trump told reporters at Mar-a-Lago Thursday.
"We have to get that war over with. That's a bloody mess," he added.
Between the lines: Trump gave no timeline for the potential meeting.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Friday that the Kremlin had not yet received an official request for contact, Russian state news agency TASS reported.
However, Putin is prepared to meet with Trump without any conditions, Peskov added.
The big picture: Despite Trump's ambitious campaign promises, unnamed European officials told the Financial Times that Trump's team has now pushed the timeline for ending the conflict to "several months."
According to the officials, Trump has not yet decided how to end the war and that aid to Ukraine is likely to continue after Trump's inauguration, the Financial Times reported Friday.
Why it matters: Trump is the first former (and returning) president convicted of a felony. The expected sentence of unconditional discharge — also recommended by prosecutors — means the conviction remains on his legal record.
The sentencing, which Trump fought to delay or block altogether, comes just 10 days before his inauguration and White House return.
The nation's high court on Thursday dashed a last-ditch bid by Trump's legal team to stop the proceeding.
Judge Juan Merchanhad already indicated that Trump wouldn't face jail time, after winning the 2024 election.
Driving the news: Trump, appearing remotely from Florida, said during the hearing that "this has been a very terrible experience," CNN reported.
He described the case as a "political witch hunt" and a "setback" for New York and the state court system.
"The fact is I'm totally innocent. I did nothing wrong," Trump said.
Merchan remarked by noting that "this has been a truly extraordinary case."
In his statement to the court, Merchan discussed the limits of the protections of the presidency. He said "they do not reduce the seriousness of the crime or justify its commission in any way. One power they do not provide is the power to erase a jury verdict."
What they're saying: Trump celebrated the unconditional discharge sentence in a Truth Social post shortly after the hearing Friday, saying it proved "this whole Scam fully deserves to be DISMISSED."
While the sentencing hearing had been a "despicable charade," his legal team would now press forward with an appeal, he added.
Catch up quick: Merchan wrote in a filing earlier this month that "unconditional discharge appears to be the most viable solution to ensure finality" and allow Trump to pursue his appellate options.
A court may impose a sentence of unconditional discharge when it believes "no proper purpose would be served by imposing any condition upon the defendant's release," under New York law.
This would mean that Trump would face no jail time, probation or fines, but would nevertheless serve as a mark on his permanent record.
Merchan noted that prosecutors no longer viewed jail time "as a practicable recommendation" given Trump's election victory.
Flashback: A New York jury found Trump guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records last May.
He was charged in connection with a $130,000 hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels over an alleged sexual encounter. Trump has repeatedly denied the affair.
Since then, Trump's team has repeatedlytried to have his case thrown out under the Supreme Court's 2024 ruling that presidents have immunity for "official acts."
Since his election win, two federal cases against him have been dropped.
His Georgia election interference case was cast into further limbo after the Georgia Court of Appeals ruled to disqualify Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis late last month. She is appealing the decision.
AI technology is advancing rapidly and if you're not already using it at work, brace yourself.
Why it matters: That was Sam Altman's message, buried in a blog post.
"We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents 'join the workforce' and materially change the output of companies," writes the OpenAI founder.
State of play: The possibility of using AI agents to do work instead of expensive humans has some companies super excited. It's making many workers super anxious.
Distinct from an AI chatbot, an AI agent can work autonomously. You tell it what to do, and the agent goes off and does it in the real world. In other words, it could theoretically fully replace a human.
For example, a scientist could use a bot to conduct research and possibly even design an experiment.
But an AI agent, when prompted, can act as a research assistant. It can not only do the research and design an experiment, the agent can conduct it and compile the results. (In a recent paper, scientists at AMD and Johns Hopkins University described how they successfully had an agent do just that.)
Zoom out: Altman, of course, has a big interest in a future where AI plays a bigger role at work. And it's not clear yet what happens to U.S. workplaces in 2025.
But the idea of AI agents in our workplaces is hardly just an AI entrepreneur's fantasy, researchers and experts say.
Zoom in: Some companies are already experimenting with AI agents in limited pilot programs to conduct drug discovery, for project management, or to design marketing campaigns.
The big picture: The key question is what happens to people's jobs? Most experts agree that agents will change the nature of work over the coming years — particularly for those who work at a desk in front of a computer.
That could mean an agent starts doing some of your work. "In an ideal world, this is a multiplier of effort where I delegate the worst parts of my job to AI," says Ethan Mollick, a management professor at Wharton who studies AI.
Altman said something similar in a podcast interview. He doesn't think about "what percent of jobs AI will do, but what percent of tasks will it do," he said on Lex Fridman's podcast last year. AI will let people do their jobs, "at a higher level of abstraction."
AI has made workers more efficient, but there's still a lot more work to do. "The one thing I'm not worried about is that we're running out of work," GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke tells Axios.
Yes, but: While humans will still absolutely be needed to supervise the AI's work, agents will start replacing humans over the next two years, says Anton Korinek, an economics professor at the University of Virginia and a visiting scholar at Brookings.
"Any job that can be done solely in front of a computer will be amenable to AI agents within the next 24 months," Korinek says in an email, assuring this reporter that he was not himself an AI. (He also agreed he could be replaced by one.)
"From my conversations with business leaders, the majority of large companies employing white-collar workers are looking into what they can automate with AI."
Between the lines: Humans are moving more slowly than the technology. Companies have to figure out how to adjust operations to accommodate AI workers, says Lareina Yee, a senior partner at McKinsey and an AI expert.
And that can be a costly endeavor. The biggest challenge to moving AI agents into the workplace isn't the tech, it's the people, she says. "This is not a technology strategy moment, it's a business strategy moment."
Map showing surface air temperature anomalies in 2024 compared to 1991-2020 average. Image: Copernicus Climate Change Service
Zoom in: Last year was the hottest seen in instrument record-keeping but also much longer before that.
In fact, as with 2023, the year was very likely the hottest in at least 125,000 years.
Some daily global average temperatures, as measured using increasingly precise computer model data, exceeded 2°C above preindustrial levels — flirting with another temperature target in the Paris climate agreement.
According to Copernicus, an agency of the European Commission, each year in the last decade has been one of the 10 hottest on record.
Global average surface temperatures in 2024 were about 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels, Copernicus found, and about 0.12°C (.22°F) above 2023's record high.
Data from U.S. centers, such as NOAA and NASA, show similar results. The World Meteorological Organization, a U.N. agency, also found that the global average surface temperature in 2024 exceeded 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.
Berkeley Earth, an independent temperature monitoring group that also released its 2024 data Friday, noted in a report that the record-breaking warmth of the past two years "demonstrates a clear deviation from the long-term warming trend, suggesting that warming rates have increased, at least in the short term."
Yes, but: The Paris Agreement's most stringent temperature target of holding warming to 1.5°C compared with pre-industrial levels refers to a long-term, 20-to-30-year average, rather than a single year or two.
Still, 2024 shows the world is already exceeding the barrier that diplomats set at the Paris climate summit in 2015, and in fact the average of 2023 and 2024 falls above the 1.5°C threshold, Copernicus said.
Studies show that if warming exceeds 1.5°C relative to preindustrial levels, the odds of potentially catastrophic impacts, such as the shutting of key ocean currents and melting of Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets, would increase considerably.
Regarding exceeding the 1.5°C marker, Copernicus' news release stated: "Global temperatures are rising beyond what modern humans have ever experienced."
Reality check: While global leaders are still committed to the 1.5-degree goal, it is partly because of a lack of consensus of what a new target should be.
Most climate scientists don't think the current threshold is feasible.
Berkeley Earth bluntly states as much in its report: "The Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C will not be met, and the long-term average referenced by this target will exceed this threshold in the next five-to-10 years, conservatively."
What they're saying: "Humanity is in charge of its own destiny but how we respond to the climate challenge should be based on evidence," Carlo Buontempo, the Copernicus Climate Change Service's director, said in a statement.
"Whether it is at a level below or above 1.5°C of warming, every additional increment of global warming increases the impacts on our lives, economies and our planet," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo in a separate statement.
Between the lines: One of the most impactful records seen during 2024 was unusually high amounts of water vapor in the atmosphere, at about 5% above the 1991-2020 average, beating previous highs.
Extreme heat and high humidity is a deadly combination, and record large swaths of the globe saw "strong" to "extreme heat stress," per Copernicus' data.
The high water vapor content in the atmosphere also helped contribute to extreme precipitation events and to rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones such as hurricanes Helene and Milton.
The intrigue: Climate scientists are still investigating why 2024, which didn't feature 2023's planet-warming El Niño event on top of human-caused climate change, vaulted above the previous year on the list of hottest years.
Multiple studies have been published on this topic, and the possibility that the climate has shifted into a new phase of more rapid warming for reasons that are not yet completely clear is unnervingly still on the table.
What's next: Along with NOAA's and NASA's climate reports on Friday will come a new report on trends in ocean heat content.
All of it is likely to show evidence of a planet heating faster and to record levels.
Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details and comments from WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
President-elect Trump has inspired Republican members of Congress to introduce a bill that would allow the federal government to take steps to repurchase the Panama Canal.
Why it matters: It's the second time this week GOP lawmakers have rushed to propose legislation that would codify Trump's vision for a new era of American expansionism.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) said Tuesday she plans to introduce a bill that would rename the Gulf of Mexico the "Gulf of America."
Driving the news: Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.), the chair of the pragmatist Republican Main Street Caucus, introduced the two-page Panama Canal Repurchase Act on Thursday.
The bill authorizes the president and secretary of state to "initiate and conduct negotiations with appropriate counterparts" in Panama on buying back the canal.
The U.S. controlled the canal from its construction in 1914 until 1977, when then-President Carter turned over to Panama.
By the numbers: Johnson's legislation has 15 GOP co-sponsors, ranging from relative centrists like Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) to right-wing hardliners like Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.).
It does not yet have any bipartisan support, though some Democrats have expressed openness to the idea of reasserting U.S. influence over the canal to counter China.
Trump has also proposed purchasing Greenland and, more jokingly, annexing Canada, and he has not ruled out the use of military force to achieve the former.
AI technology is advancing rapidly and if you're not already using it at work, brace yourself.
Why it matters: That was Sam Altman's message, buried in a recent blog post.
"We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents 'join the workforce' and materially change the output of companies," writes the OpenAI founder.
State of play: The possibility of using AI agents to do work instead of expensive humans has some companies super excited. It's making many workers super anxious.
Distinct from an AI chatbot, an AI agent can work autonomously. You tell it what to do, and the agent goes off and does it in the real world. In other words, it could theoretically fully replace a human.
For example, a scientist could use a bot to conduct research and possibly even design an experiment.
But an AI agent, when prompted, can act as a research assistant — it can not only do the research and design an experiment, the agent can conduct it and compile the results. (In a recent paper, scientists at AMD and Johns Hopkins University described how they successfully had an agent do just that.)
Zoom out: Altman, of course, has a big interest in a future where AI plays a bigger role at work. And it's not clear yet what happens to U.S. workplaces in 2025.
But the idea of AI agents in our workplaces is hardly just an AI entrepreneur's fantasy, researchers and experts say.
Zoom in: Some companies are already experimenting with AI agents in limited pilot programs — to conduct drug discovery, for project management, or to design marketing campaigns.
The big picture: The key question is what happens to people's jobs? Most experts agree that agents will change the nature of work over the coming years — particularly for those who work at a desk in front of a computer.
That could mean an agent starts doing some of your work. "In an ideal world, this is a multiplier of effort where I delegate the worst parts of my job to AI," says Ethan Mollick, a management professor at Wharton who studies AI.
Altman said something similar in a podcast interview. He doesn't think about "what percent of jobs AI will do, but what percent of tasks will it do," he said on Lex Fridman's podcast last year. AI will let people do their jobs, "at a higher level of abstraction."
AI has made workers more efficient, but there's still a lot more work to do. "The one thing I'm not worried about is that we're running out of work," GitHub CEO Thomas Dohmke told Axios.
Yes, but: While humans will still absolutely be needed to supervise the AI's work, agents will start replacing humans over the next two years, says Anton Korinek, an economics professor at the Darden School of Business at the University of Virginia and Visiting Scholar at Brookings
"Any job that can be done solely in front of a computer will be amenable to AI agents within the next 24 months," Korinek said in an email, assuring this reporter that he was not himself an AI. (He also agreed that he could be replaced by one.)
"From my conversations with business leaders, the majority of large companies employing white-collar workers are looking into what they can automate with AI."
Between the lines: Humans are moving more slowly than the technology. Companies have to figure out how to adjust operations to accommodate AI workers, says Lareina Yee, a senior partner at McKinsey and AI expert.
And that can be a costly endeavor.
The biggest challenge to moving AI agents into the workplace isn't the tech, it's the people, she says. "This is not a technology strategy moment, it's a business strategy moment."
President-elect Trump understands the U.S. auto industry better now than he did during his first term, says Ford chairman Bill Ford, who's hopeful that Tesla CEO Elon Musk will use his close relationship with Trump to advocate for all automakers.
Why it matters: Trump had a fraught relationship with Detroit carmakers during his first term, and the companies often sparred with the president over labor, trade, tariffs and regulations.
But this time around, he's keenly aware of the competitive threats they face, especially from heavily subsidized Chinese rivals.
Driving the news: Ford said Trump called him "out of the blue" recently and the two men spoke for "a long, long time" about what U.S. automakers need to succeed.
"He's very tuned into the importance of a strong American industry. He wants to not only keep it strong, but actually strengthen it from here," Ford told reporters on the sidelines of a product announcement at the Detroit Auto Show.
"It's very clear what his intent is."
Ford also said he wasn't too worried that Musk will use his close relationship with Trump to get an advantage over Tesla's rivals.
"We are aligned on a lot of different things," he said of Musk.
And given that Trump has his number, Ford said, "I feel very confident that, going forward, Ford will have a voice, and a seat at the table."
Between the lines: Ford said affordability is the key to facing the "crucible" of Chinese competition on electric vehicles.
"It's not matching the technology. It's not matching how the vehicles are put together. It's really not even matching the battery itself. But it really is the affordability to the customer that becomes, sort of the crucible, whether this is going to succeed or not. We're working really hard on that."
None of the Los Angeles County fires that have killed at least 10 people are among California's 20 largest wildfires, but they're among the most destructive on record as they burned more structures overnight.
The big picture: Mayor Karen Bass described this enduring "firestorm" that prompted tens of thousands to evacuate after erupting Tuesday amid extremely dry conditions and Santa Ana winds that reached hurricane-force intensity as "the big one in magnitude."
State of play: Los Angeles City Fire Chief Kristin Crowley said at a Thursday briefing it's "safe to say" the largest blaze, the Palisades Fire, is "one of the most destructive natural disasters in the history of Los Angeles."
It's estimated the wildfire that erupted on Tuesday in Pacific Palisades has burned 5,316 structures across 19,978 acres at 6% containment in the affluent L.A. area between Malibu and Santa Monica as of late Thursday.
That makes the blaze that's killed at least two people California's third-most destructive blaze on record, in terms of structures burned, per Cal Fire.
The Eaton Fire, which has killed at least three people since igniting on Tuesday, ranks fourth in Cal Fire's top-20 most destructive wildfires, with "5,000+" structures destroyed.
It's burned at 0% containment over an estimated 13,690 acres north of Pasadena as of late Thursday, though fire officials said growth had been "significantly stopped.
Context: The largest fire ever recorded in California, 2020's August Complex Fire, razed more than 1 million acres north of Sacramento and destroyed 935 structures, per Cal Fire.
Driving the news: Many of the fires were sparked in densely populated areas during an extreme wind event that's been more catastrophic than the last big one to hit Southern California in 2011.
No major wildfires ignited during the 2011 Santa Ana wind event, but Yale Climate Connections notes this was "largely because Los Angeles was not experiencing drought at that time," but the region is currently in severe drought.
There's been no meaningful rainfall for months in some areas, which Axios' Andrew Freedman notes are experiencing the driest conditions on record for early January following an unusually hot summer that dried out vegetation. This time of year is typically the region's wet season.
Bass noted at a briefing Wednesday, "Hurricane-force winds are usually accompanied by rain storms, but these hurricane-force winds are combined with extremely dry drought conditions."
Los Angeles Police Chief Jim McDonnell at the same briefing described the situation as "unprecedented."
Between the lines: Climate change, while certainly not the only relevant factor, has indeed increased the risk of extreme California wildfires," wrote UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain on Bluesky.
"The main reason is increasing temperatures & atmospheric 'thirstiness,"' but increased precipitation "whiplash"/seasonal shifts is also an emerging factor," he added, referring to when there are rapid swings between intensely wet and dangerously dry weather.
"The evidence shows that hydroclimate whiplash has already increased due to global warming, and further warming will bring about even larger increases," said Swain in a statement announcing a study he led on the matter that was published in Nature ReviewWednesday.
"This whiplash sequence in California has increased fire risk twofold: first, by greatly increasing the growth of flammable grass and brush in the months leading up to fire season, and then by drying it out to exceptionally high levels with the extreme dryness and warmth that followed."
What we're watching: Swain said during a livestream he expects SoCal's "urban firestorm" will likely become "the costliest wildfire disaster in California, if not national history, along with a number of other superlatives."
But the extreme weather threat is far from over. Wind gusts of up to 55 mph were forecast into Friday, with more gusty north-to-northeast winds expected to develop over the weekend.
A stronger offshore wind event could occur over Monday night and Tuesday, per the National Weather Service.
A federal appeals court paved the way Thursday for special counsel Jack Smith to release a final report on President-elect Trump's two dismissed federal criminal cases.
The big picture: Trump and two of his former co-defendants have fought the release of the report on his alleged attempts to overturn the 2020 election and handling of classified documents. The ruling leaves open the possibility of a further appeal.
Representatives for Trump did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening.
Zoom in: The ruling from the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit in Atlanta comes in response to a request from Trump aid Walt Nauta and former Mar-a-Lago property manager Carlos de Oliveira, who were both charged in the dismissed classified documents case.
The timing of the report's release remains unclear.
A lower court ruling from U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon, a Trump appointee, which temporarily blocked the report's release is in place for three days.
A separate part of the report, which details Smith's investigation into Trump's alleged mishandling of classified documents, appears likely to remain sealed for now, per the Washington Post.
What they're saying: Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung said in a statement that criticized Smith the decision from the 11th Circuit "keeps Judge Cannon's injunction in place and prevents any report from being issued."
He called on President Biden and Attorney General Merrick Garland, whom Trump's lawyers have asked to block the release of Smith's report, to "do the right thing and put a final stop to the political weaponization of our Justice system."
Context: Smith initiated a winding down of his two federal criminal cases against Trump after the president-elect's November win.
Map showing surface air temperature anomalies in 2024 compared to 1991-2020 average. Image: Copernicus Climate Change Service.
Zoom in: Last year was the hottest seen in instrument record-keeping, but also much longer before that.
In fact, as with 2023, the year was very likely the hottest in at least 125,000 years.
Some daily global average temperatures, as measured using increasingly precise computer model data, exceeded 2°C above preindustrial levels — flirting with another temperature target in the Paris Climate Agreement.
According to Copernicus, an agency of the European Commission, each year in the last decade has been one of the 10 hottest on record.
Data from U.S. centers, such as NOAA and NASA, show similar results. (Their final 2024 data comes out Friday.)
Global average surface temperatures in 2024 were about 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels, Copernicus found, and about 0.12°C (.22°F) above 2023's record high.
Yes, but: The Paris Agreement's most stringent temperature target of holding warming to 1.5°C compared with pre-industrial levels refers to a long-term, 20-to-30-year average, rather than a single year or two.
Still, 2024 shows the world is already exceeding the barrier that diplomats set at the Paris climate summit in 2015, and in fact the average of 2023 and 2024 falls above the 1.5°C threshold, Copernicus said.
Studies show that if warming exceeds 1.5°C relative to preindustrial levels, the odds of potentially catastrophic impacts, such as the shutting of key ocean currents and melting of Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets, would increase considerably.
Regarding exceeding the 1.5°C marker, Copernicus' news release stated: "Global temperatures are rising beyond what modern humans have ever experienced."
What they're saying: "Humanity is in charge of its own destiny but how we respond to the climate challenge should be based on evidence," said Carlo Buontempo, the Copernicus Climate Change Service's director.
"The future is in our hands — swift and decisive action can still alter the trajectory of our future climate."
Between the lines: One of the most impactful records seen during 2024 was unusually high amounts of water vapor in the atmosphere, at about 5% above the 1991-2020 average, beating previous highs.
Extreme heat and high humidity is a deadly combination, and record large swaths of the globe saw "strong" to "extreme heat stress," per Copernicus' data.
The high water vapor content in the atmosphere also helped contribute to extreme precipitation events, and to rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones, such as hurricanes Helene and Milton.
The intrigue: Climate scientists are still investigating why 2024, which didn't feature a planet-warming El Niño event on top of human-caused climate change, vaulted above 2023 on the list of hottest years.
Multiple studies have been published on this topic, and the possibility that the climate has shifted into a new phase of more rapid warming for reasons that are not yet completely clear is unnervingly still on the table.
What's next: Along with NOAA's and NASA's climate reports on Friday will come a new report on trends in ocean heat content.
All of it is likely to show evidence of a planet heating faster and to record levels.
Why it matters: Some of the most historic structures in the U.S. were completely wiped out.
The big picture: The number of structures destroyed or damaged by the fires is believed to number "in the thousands," Los Angeles City Fire Chief Kristin Crowley said at a briefing Thursday, adding that the Palisades Fire is "one of the most destructive natural disasters in the history of Los Angeles."
Zoom in: Here's which landmarks are under threat:
Altadena's Bunny Museum
The museum burned to the ground, according to the museum's Instagram account.
Eames House
The 20th century architectural landmark was safe from the fires as ofJan. 8, per the house's Instagram.
Gamble House
The property is "safe for now!!" the house's Instagram account said.
The Getty Villa
The world-famous art museum has so far remained safe, according to a Jan. 8 announcement on its website, although a small brush fire burned trees and vegetation on the property.
The Hollywood Sign is seen with smoke from multiple wildfires on January 08, 2025 in Hollywood, California. Photo: AaronP/Bauer-Griffin/GC Images
The Hollywood Sign
The Sunset Fire in Hollywood Hills area caused rumors about the status of the Hollywood sign to circulate on social media (as well as AI-generated photos), but the sign was undamaged as of Thursday evening.
The Hollywood Bowl
The Hollywood Bowl was impacted by evacuation orders due to the Sunset Fire on Wednesday evening, which the amphitheater and park said on X lifted Thursday morning.
Moonshadows
The owners of Moonshadows reposted footage on Instagram reporting that the fire completely destroyed the iconic restaurant and bar.
Palisades Charter High School
Much of the school — classrooms, tennis courts, the baseball field, and bungalows — all burned in the fire, according to The New York Times. As the school was closed for winter break, few people had to be evacuated, BBC reported.
Palisades Elementary Charter School
The fires also caused "significant damage" to the elementary school, per multiple reports.
Palisades Village
Rick Caruso, owner of the Palisades Village mall, told Los Angeles Times that several homes around the shopping center were "fully engulfed" in flames, and that his shopping center too suffered damage.
The Pasadena Jewish Temple and Center
The temple and Jewish center's campus was "destroyed" by the Eaton Fire, the center said on Facebook.
Reel Inn
Staff at thePacific Coast Highway restaurant are "unsure what will be left" after flames from the Palisades Fire swept the building, per an Instagram post Wednesday.
Theatre Palisades, Pierson Playhouse
"Our beloved Pierson Playhouse is gone, but the heart of Theatre Palisades beats on. We will rise again," Pierson Playhouse, the organization said on Facebook on Jan. 8 after the Palisades Fire struck.
Topanga Ranch Motel
California State Parks said in a statement that the Topanga Ranch Hotel, once owned by William Randolph Hearst, was also destroyed by the blaze.
Villa Aurora and the Thomas Mann House
Villa Aurora, a historic artists' residence, was partially harmed, representatives said in a statement, though the full extent of the damage was unclear as of Thursday evening.
"There are first indications that parts of Villa Aurora were able to withstand the destructive fires. However, the building continues to be in the danger zone," the representatives write. The Thomas Mann House, which is on the Villa Aurora property, was undamaged as of Thursday.
Villa de Leon
The status of the mansion — featured in music videos by Beyoncé, Lady Gaga, and more —was not immediately clear as of Thursday evening
But video footage captured showed that the grounds engulfed in flames from the Palisades Fire.
Macy's is closing 66 stores as part of its "A Bold New Chapter" plan, with liquidation sales set to start in January, the retailer confirmed to Axios Thursday.
Why it matters: The struggling department store chain is getting smaller as it continues to deal with declining sales.
Macy's said last February that it planned to shutter 150 stores by the end of 2026 — about a third of its locations.
The retailer also said it is leaning into its high-end brands and plans to invest in its "350 go-forward Macy's locations."
Tony Spring, Macy's chair and CEO, said in a statement the company is closing underproductive stores "to allow us to focus our resources and prioritize investments in our go–forward stores."
The big picture: The department store sector has been reeling for years, struggling to compete with nimbler big-box chains, fast-fashion retailers and digital competitors.
The industry has seen the bankruptcies of stalwart chains such as Sears, JCPenney and Neiman Marcus.
Flashback: In early 2020 before the pandemic, Macy's Inc., which includes Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury, said it would close around 125 stores, a fifth of locations, as part of a three-year plan.
Macy's fell short of its target and closed 80 namesake stores.
State of play: Macy's confirmed to Axios that clearance sales will begin in January and will run for approximately 8–12 weeks for full-line and small-format stores.
For most furniture galleries and free-standing Backstage stores, clearance sales will begin in February and will run for approximately six weeks.
Macy's stores closing list 2025
Zoom in: Macy's typically announces closings after the holiday shopping season, which has been the case in recent years, including in January 2023 and January 2024.
Stores slated to close include stand-alone Backstage stores, Market by Macy's small format stores, department stores and furniture stores.
Arizona Macy's store closure
Mesa: Superstition Springs Center, 6535 E Southern Ave.
California Macy's closing stores
Chula Vista: Otay Ranch Town Center, 2015 Birch Road
Citrus Heights: Sunrise Mall, 6000 Sunrise Mall
Corte Madera: Village at Corte Madera, 1400 Redwood Highway
Los Angeles: Downtown LA Plaza, 750 W 7th St.
Newark: NewPark Mall, 200 Newpark Mall
Sacramento: Downtown Plaza, 414 K St.
San Diego: Mission Valley Home, 1555 Camino De La Reina
San Mateo Hillsdale Furniture: 2838 South El Camino
The attitudes of financial advisers toward the crypto asset class are changing fast.
The big picture: More than half of FAs in a recent survey say the presidential election has made them more likely to invest in crypto. This time last year, in a survey from the same folks, hardly any advisers believed bitcoin ETFs would even be approved this year.
Zoom in: The survey of 400 advisers was issued by Bitwise, a crypto index fund manager that offers BITB, one of the top 5 bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
As the firm continues to push the ETF as an investment vehicle, it conducted the survey with VettaFi to see where advisers stood.
96% of them said they have gotten questions about crypto.
Nearly all (99%) of those who have made allocations for clients plan to hold on or increase it.
The intrigue: Most advisers still can't recommend bitcoin ETFs to their clients, because they work in-house for one of the big investment firms that haven't officially sanctioned any bitcoin funds yet.
This is not that unusual, Matt Hougan, Bitwise's chief investment officer, tells Axios. A lot of times the big guys like to wait a year or so before recommending a new exchange-traded product.
Yes, but: He also noted that they tend to make an exception for a hot ETF launch, and the bitcoin ETFs have been the hottest. So it is a little strange.
Morgan Stanley, for one, reportedly allows its advisers to recommend BlackRock and Fidelity's bitcoin ETFs to certain clients.
What he's saying: Hougan doesn't believe the early days are over for bitcoin as an investment until its market cap trumps that of gold.
With gold's market cap at $18 trillion against bitcoin's nearly $2 trillion, that suggests a lot more room to run.
Friction point: Hougan said we've gone through four years of an administration hostile to cryptocurrency, with an investment regulator who takes an especially dim view.
That was likely to make the big firms nervous. When and if Paul Atkins gets seated in the SEC, that should be enormously encouraging to the big firms putting bitcoin ETFs on their approved lists.
What we're watching: How bad the next bear market will be.
Every contraction in crypto has seen an 80%-90% drop in bitcoin price, but, as we've said, it seems like the ETF era could soften that next drop.
"I think it will be shallower and that it will come back faster and that will mean something is different," Hougan concurred.
The bottom line: "The reality is 95% of the world still doesn't own bitcoin, and the vast majority of institutional investors still don't own bitcoin," Hougan said. "Until that changes, it's still early."
Some moderate House Democrats are keeping the door open to supporting the massive tax, border and energy package President-elect Trump and Republicans are concocting — if the price is right.
Why it matters: House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has virtually no room for error to pass the bill along party lines, and some of his right-wing hardliners are harshly conditioning their votes.
"One of several, for me, 'bright lines,' 'red lines,' however you want to say it, is deficit reduction," Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) told reporters on Thursday.
That could be a heavy lift with Republicans planning trillions in tax cut extensions, on top of funding for things like enhanced border security.
What we're hearing: The main way Republicans could try to entice some breakaway Democratic support is through raising the $10,000 cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction.
That would put money directly into the pockets of suburbanites in high-tax blue states like California, New York and New Jersey.
"I'm not going to say what I will support or not support until I see the specifics, but I think SALT is critically important ... and this is a huge opportunity to bring SALT back fully," said Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.).
Rep. George Latimer (D-N.Y.) told Axios, "Obviously I like full SALT restoration, but let's see where the negotiations take us. ... The doors are open for whatever helps."
State of play: Some of the House GOP's most ardent advocates for SALT, like Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), are pushing hard to include a generous provision in the bill and are going to Mar-a-Lago this weekend to make their case.
But the high price tag of that policy could make it a tough sell for deficit hawks like Roy, who told reporters, "Obviously, if you significantly lift or eliminate the cap, there's a fairly significant impact in terms of revenues."
The intrigue: Some of the other centrist Democrats who may be inclined to give the package a fair look would be turned off by the inclusion of a strong SALT provision.
Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine), who represents a working-class, rural district, told Axios he would support the bill "if there's stuff in there that's good for Maine or that I like."
But, he added, "I don't like SALT. It's just a huge giveaway to the top 10%, and I care about the deficit. So that's a bad start."
Reality check: Extending the Trump tax cuts could ultimately be a bridge too far for most Democrats, with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) calling the package the "GOP tax scam part two" at a press conference on Wednesday.
"Wasting trillions of dollars on tax giveaways to the super-wealthy is offensive on its face," said centrist Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio).
Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) said it would be "very hard to support a tax bill that reduces corporate taxes, that doesn't put the top rate back to where it was."
Johnson, asked by Axios if he is willing to work with Democrats on the legislation, said: "We welcome all Democrats to vote for a good package. This is going to be great legislation. It's an America First agenda, but it follows common sense."
Trump appears to be willing to take Democratic input: Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) told reporters Thursday he plans to make a trek to Mar-a-Lago this weekend.
The bottom line: Even skeptical Democrats say they are ready to talk if things fall apart for Johnson and he decides to engage with them.
"They're going to want to do this on their own," said Landsman. "If they can't because of the slim majority, obviously they're going to need our help. And that's when the bipartisan magic happens."
