Hotter-than-expected labor market decreases likelihood of Fed interest rate cuts
Rumors of a job market downturn were, it appears, greatly exaggerated.
Why it matters: A robust December employment report suggests the labor market is heating up β or at least not meaningfully cooling β as 2025 begins.
Catch up quick: The jobless rate fell, employers added to their payrolls, a larger share of the adult population was working, and wages rose at a healthy pace last month.
- That makes the outlook for further Fed interest rate cuts more remote. Another cut later this month now looks to be off the table, and market odds of a rate cut in March fell sharply Friday morning.
- With a solid labor market, officials can move more gingerly as price pressures look stickier.
What they're saying: "I have more confidence that the job market is not deteriorating," Goolsbee tells Axios. "There is a statistical pattern that when unemployment goes up, it tends to keep going up. I have more comfort now that we did stabilize and this time is quite different than previous business cycles."
By the numbers: The U.S. economy added 256,000 jobs last month β the most since March 2024 and about 100,000 (!) more than economists had expected.
- That partly reflects a bounce back from hurricane-induced payrolls weakness in the fall, but the strength is echoed in other data.
- The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2%. (Remember the recession jitters that followed the jobless rate jump last summer? That looks increasingly more like a head fake.)
- The share of employed prime-age workers (those aged between 25 and 54) ticked up, rising 0.1% to 80.5% and recovering some of the losses since September.
- Average hourly earnings, a measure of wage growth, rose 0.3% in December and have increased by 3.9% over the previous 12 months.
The big picture: The final data point for 2024 came in hot, nearly matching the job gains that kicked off the year. Still, relative to 2023, the labor market has slowed a bit.
- The economy added an average of 186,000 jobs per month last year, down from the 251,000 in 2023.
The intrigue: Bond markets sold off on the news, driving an upturn in yields amid diminished prospects for Fed rate cuts.
- The yield on the U.S. 10-year government bond rose to 4.78% on Friday morning, the highest level since late 2023. That rate was 3.62% in mid-September when the Fed commenced its rate-cutting campaign.
- The Fed started its rate-cutting cycle with an eye on the labor market that, at the time, looked wobbly.
- Fears about the job market have since receded. Now there is a closer eye on inflation that has already ceased cooling, with risks that President-elect Trump's trade and immigration policies might reignite it.
"I think the most material thing is this question of, do you think the economy is overheating, or do you think we're in a stabilizing range with inflation getting back to target?" Goolsbee says.
- The Fed has cut rates by a full percentage point since September and Goolsbee says he still thinks "we have some to go."
The bottom line: Trump will inherit a labor market that has thrived under the weight of high inflation and high interest rates.