The layoffs that hit about 800 NOAA employees last week will hamstring the agency's fleet of hurricane research aircraft, experts warn.

Threat level: NOAA's aircraft have specialized equipment that the Air Force's Hurricane Hunters lack. Their flights during hurricane season are aimed at feeding data into computer models to improve forecast accuracy.

• The now-thinly staffed team of flight directors, engineers, scientists and mechanics means NOAA will struggle to maintain a 24-hour-a-day tempo of flying its modified Gulfstream jet and aging WP-3 research aircraft, said Josh Ripp, who was laid off as a flight engineer since he was a probationary employee.
• Ripp said the missing flights will translate into less accurate forecasts and greater risk for coastal residents who are used to having at least two to three days' warning of a hurricane's predicted landfall location.
• He told Axios in an interview that the agency is now either short one person or is at just the level of personnel needed to staff 24/7 flight operations, which has been the desired tempo during past seasons.

However, that assumes no one gets sick or has a family emergency and cannot crew a flight. NOAA, he said, is now "playing the odds that everyone there is going to be fine all season."

Zoom in: Two others associated with NOAA's hurricane research program confirmed the challenges the agency faces after the layoffs hit its Office of Marine and Aviation Operations in Lakeland, Fla.

• According to Andrew Hazelton, who was laid off from working on hurricane forecast models at the National Hurricane Center, the cuts may compromise forecast accuracy and ultimately cost lives.
• He said NOAA uses the information from the flights in two ways. One is to gauge the intensity and movement of a storm, since such data is immediately relayed to the Hurricane Center.
• The other is to use the specialized equipment — such as powerful, tail-mounted-Doppler radar — to gather data that's fed into hurricane forecast models to better anticipate a storm's movement and shifts in intensity.

Consistent NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane reconnaissance has helped lead to vast improvements in hurricane track forecasts in particular, with new gains made in intensity projections in recent years.

Between the lines: NOAA only has a minimum capacity of flight directors, positions that require years of training, according to one source familiar with staffing issues who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution if they are rehired.

• It missed out on gaining three who were in the hiring process when the Trump administration instituted a government-wide freeze, and then lost two to the layoffs, the source said.
• "This leaves the exact number for staffing four total WP-3 and G-IV crews," the source said. "It leaves no room for anyone to get sick or have a life event that precludes them from being able to fly."
• "It will, of course, also lead to burnout of the remaining flight directors," they said, noting that flight engineers are also at "critically low" levels of personnel.

Hazelton told Axios that NOAA is running the risk that a storm will approach the coast and that the agency won't be able to fly into and around it with its advanced capabilities.

• "I think that's a real risk that could happen if some of these moves aren't reversed," he said.

What they're saying: NOAA wouldn't comment specifically about the Hurricane Hunter staffing issue.

• "As per longstanding practice, we don't discuss internal personnel and management matters," the agency said in a statement to Axios.
• "NOAA remains dedicated to providing timely information, research and resources that serve the American public and ensure our nation's environmental and economic resilience," the statement said. "We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission."

Go deeper:

DOGE moves to cancel NOAA leases on key weather buildings

Top weather, climate agency NOAA the latest layoff target

NOAA layoffs threaten weather, climate forecasts

DOGE plans for NOAA, FEMA could have big climate impacts

SpaceX's Starship rocket exploded minutes after it launched from Texas Thursday.

The big picture: Debris from the rocket reached as far away as Philadelphia, and caused flight delays in several states, including Florida, FAA data show.

• It's the spacecraft's second consecutive test flight to end in destruction, after another such explosion nearly two months ago.

Driving the news: "During Starship's ascent burn, the vehicle experienced a rapid unscheduled disassembly and contact was lost," SpaceX said in a post on X.

• The SpaceX team then activated on its pre-planned contingency responses, and said they'll review data from the flight test to better understand the cause.
• "As always, success comes from what we learn, and today's flight will offer additional lessons to improve Starship's reliability," the post read.

Zoom in: An FAA spokesperson told Axios in an emailed statement Thursday evening that the agency is requiring SpaceX to perform a mishap investigation into the loss of the Starship vehicle during the launch.

• "During the event, the FAA activated a Debris Response Area and briefly slowed aircraft outside the area where space vehicle debris was falling or stopped aircraft at their departure location," the spokesperson said.
• Normal operations have resumed, per the FAA.
• Representatives for SpaceX did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment.

Editor's note: This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

Senate Democrats want to leave the issue of trans athletes playing in women's sports to state and local governments.

Why it matters: Democrats privately admit they need a sharper response to counter Republican attacks on their support for transgender rights, especially when it involves sports.

• In the Senate, their emerging strategy is to argue that one part of the issue is best left to the states, while acknowledging concerns about athletes gaining an unfair advantage.
• "There are basic issues of fairness here," said Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) "There are really important issues that we should be discussing on the local level, within sports leagues and within conferences."

Between the lines: The Democratic messaging effort has been spearheaded by Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), sources tell Axios.

• Baldwin, the first openly gay person elected to the Senate, faced a barrage of attacks on the topic in her 2024 reelection campaign.
• She feared Republicans were flooding the zone with their attacks without Democrats having a clear and consistent rebuttal.
• "Republicans in Washington are saying they know better than parents and local school districts," she said in a statement. "They are wrong. I trust parents, schools and local sports leagues to make these decisions for their children."

Zoom in: The issue was thrust into the public Thursday by California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), who broke with progressives by saying transgender participation in sports was an "issue of fairness."

• "It's deeply unfair," Newsom, a potential 2028 presidential candidate, told Charlie Kirk on his inaugural podcast, "This Is Gavin Newsom."
• Senate Democrats this week blocked a bill that would have banned trans athletes from women's sports. Not a single Democrat voted to bring the bill to the floor.

What they are saying: Some Senate Democrats agreed with Newsom on the sports fairness issue, but they said to be careful that the overall conversation doesn't demonize transgender athletes. They also want to avoid federal overreach.

• "It's leading to more bullying. It's leading to more mental health issues as people are feeling targeted," Booker told Axios. "Yes, when it comes to sports leagues, they have to find a way to create fairness."
• Said Sen. Angus King (I-Maine): "I understand the concern. I have a daughter who was a high school athlete. Interestingly, when I asked her about this issue, she said, by all means, there should not be a federal ban."
• "Every state and every community is going to come to their own decision on it," Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) told Axios.

The bottom line: "Everyone deserves a level playing field, but the governing bodies — the parents, the coaches, the NCAA ... need to make those decisions," said Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.).

• "We let local schools make those kinds of decisions," said Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) "There's no one set of facts. These are going to be pretty complicated situations."

Republicans across the country have launched initiatives mirroring the Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency to root out so-called "waste" and "fraud" within state budgets.

Why it matters: While they cheer Elon Musk's chainsaw, some of those same officials worry how those deep cuts at the federal level will affect their states, which take in more federal money than they send to Washington.

• Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt, who established DOGE-OK via executive order last month, acknowledged that reality to Politico, noting that as DOGE is "trying to cut $2 trillion out of the federal spending … a lot of money from the feds goes to the states."
• He suggested state officials can help guide DOGE when considering state aid.

Driving the news: Stitt is not alone as the DOGE drive trickles down to the state level.

• Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry's DOGE-like initiative preceded Trump's inauguration by creating a "Fiscal Responsibility Program" in December with the goal of downsizing the state budget.
• New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte's first executive order established a Commission on Government Efficiency (COGE), "to streamline government, cut spending, and ensure we're doing everything we can to create value for taxpayers."
• In North Carolina, lawmakers formed an "interim House 'Select Committee on Government Efficiency,'" which is authorized to "look at DEI policies, excess state property, and other potential wastes of taxpayer dollars."
• Georgia's Senate recently passed a bill likened to a "state-level DOGE" backed by Lt. Governor Burt Jones to curb regulatory burdens.
• And in Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis launched a Florida DOGE task force, with university spending a prime target.

Yes, but: The Trump administration's slash-and-burn style of budget busting worries some GOP lawmakers.

• "If you're making [final] decisions without involving local representatives, you're making a mistake," House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) told reporters when discussing cuts to a key National Weather Service facility in his district.
• Landry and other Louisiana officials asked the Office of Management and Budget "to develop a responsible runway to untangle us from any unnecessary and egregious policies without jeopardizing the financial stability of the state."
• Several lawmakers have pressed the administration to act with "compassion" and treat the federal workforce "with dignity" as mass federal layoffs take a toll far beyond D.C.

State of play: States' initiatives so far have not echoed the dramatic disruptions Trump and Musk's DOGE triggered.

• Layoffs have hit thousands of employees across the government, from NOAA to National Parks to the IRS, as the administration guts federal agencies and slashes contracts deemed wasteful.

Reality check: To make the vast $2 trillion reduction Elon Musk has floated, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and defense cuts would mathematically be a likely necessity.

• And how the federal government does its math — considering tax and spending cuts — could shake up state-level budgets.

Go deeper: Trump stares down early economic potholes

A House Republican said Thursday he will force votes on kicking dozens of Democratic colleagues off of their committees for chanting and singing on the House floor over the objections of Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.).

Why it matters: The incident came in response to Republicans and nearly a dozen Democrats voting to censure Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) for disrupting President Trump's speech to Congress.

• As Johnson read out the resolution censuring Green, dozens of House Democrats, primarily Black Caucus members and progressives, stood in the well of the House singing "We Shall Overcome."
• Johnson repeatedly banged the gavel and said, "The House will come to order," before putting the House in recess until the disruption subsided.

What they're saying: "Today, a group of House Democrats broke decorum during the censure of Rep. Al Green and, after multiple warnings, refused to heed [Johnson's] order," Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) said in a post on X.

• Ogles said he is drafting privileged resolutions — which any member can force to a vote with or without support from leadership — to "remove each of them from their committees."
• "If you want to act like a child in the Halls of Congress, you will be treated like a child," Ogles said.

Zoom in: Ogles' two-page resolution says that "several Representatives should be removed from their committee assignments in light of conduct they exhibited on the floor," according to a copy obtained by Axios.

• The measure directs the House sergeant-at-arms to "provide a determination as to which Members ignored the Speaker's directive."
• Ogles told Axios he plans to speak to Johnson next week about bringing the measure up for a vote.

The other side: House Minority Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), in a video posted to social media Thursday night, blasted Ogles as a "far-right extremist" and a "fraud," and said his resolution is "going nowhere."

• "You ain't throwing no one off of any single committee," the Democratic leader said. "These people are malignant clowns ... don't make me expose you to folks that don't know you."

Editor's note: This story has been updated with comment from House Minority Hakeem Jeffries and has been corrected to reflect that Rep. Al Green represents Texas (not Arizona).

House Democratic leadership is privately confronting members who disrupted President Trump's speech to Congress, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Many progressives defied House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries' (D-N.Y.) request to avoid making themselves the story.

• Jeffries, in a dear colleague letter ahead of the speech, urged a "strong, determined and dignified Democratic presence in the chamber."
• Trump's speech was instead rocked by constant heckling. Democrats held up signs and other props, and Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) was ejected.
• In meetings and discussions with leadership this week, Democrats who heckled, walked out in protest or were otherwise disruptive were given a talking to about their tactics, sources said.

What we're hearing: Leadership is "very unhappy" with those who went beyond traditional protest tactics like outfit coordination and refusal to clap, a senior House Democrat told Axios.

• Roughly a dozen Democratic disruptors — including Reps. Melanie Stansbury (D-N.M.), Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.) and Maxine Dexter (D-Ore.) — were called into a "come to Jesus meeting" on Thursday morning, the senior Dem told Axios.
• The top three House Democratic leaders were present: Jeffries, Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) and Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.).

Yes, but: A source familiar with the matter stressed that these lawmakers are "not getting yelled at."

• "It's a consultative process. We understand the pressure they are under." "They are not being talked to like they are children. We are helping them understand why their strategy is a bad idea," the source said.
• A spokesperson for Jeffries declined to address the private meeting. Spokespeople for Clark and Aguilar did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

What to watch: Some Democrats said they expect leadership to take a harder tack going forward to prevent these moments of public disunity from happening ahead of time.

• Said a second House Democrat who spoke anonymously: "It doesn't surprise me leadership is very upset. They gave specific instructions not to do that."
• "Would they have done that to [Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi]? You know the answer: Never," the lawmaker said. "So you've got to put the hammer down."

America's fraying relationship with longtime allies is driving global economic shifts that were unthinkable just months ago.

Why it matters: Policy changes in the U.S. are rippling beyond its borders.

• Some of the world's biggest economies are in the midst of their own policy regime changes — pledging investments and adjustments in response to President Trump that could outlast him.

In Europe, the catalyst is the Trump administration's threat to pull back U.S. protection of European Union borders, as well as looming tariffs that could crush the already-ailing economy.

The intrigue: Europe is racing to adjust with plans that will play out over decades — a type of response not seen in Trump 1.0.

• Trump took office just as European leaders acknowledged the need for changes to reinvigorate its stagnant economy.
• But it also might be a sign of leaders expecting that Trump-style policies might stick even after he leaves office.

What they're saying: "Whereas Trump's first four years the Europeans viewed him as an accident, I think they see now he's no accident," Gordon Sondland, the former U.S. ambassador to the EU under Trump, tells Axios.

What's new: Germany's likely next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, announced plans to loosen the so-called "debt brake" that capped the deficit at 0.35% of GDP. This would let the country borrow billions for defense and infrastructure spending.

• "In view of the threats to our freedom and peace on our continent, the rule for our defense now has to be 'whatever it takes,'" Merz said at a press conference this week.
• Merz invoked an economically significant phrase for Europe: In 2012, then-European Central Bank president Mario Draghi said he would do "whatever it takes" to save the euro amid a debt crisis.

For proof of the historic nature of Germany's shift, look to the response in the bond market: Yields on the 10-year bund jumped more than 30 basis points in a single day, raising the nation's cost of borrowing.

What to watch: The scale of investment could help transform Europe's largest economy at a perilous time. It has been contracting since 2023, and Trump's proposed tariffs — set to take effect next month — could wreak havoc on its manufacturing industry.

• "Europe is being rocked by giant Trump shocks that have generated an equally massive response," Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha wrote in a client note Wednesday.
• "These are weeks when decades happen," Guha adds.

Senior U.S. and Ukrainian officials are expected to meet in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday to discuss efforts to reach a ceasefire in the war with Russia, two sources with knowledge of the meeting said.

Why it matters: It will be the first high-level meeting between the countries since the public spat between President Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office last week.

• The clash led to an unprecedented crisis between the U.S. and Ukraine and to the suspension of U.S. weapons shipments and intelligence sharing with Ukraine.

Driving the news: The meeting in Saudi Arabia comes after a similar meeting U.S. officials had with their Russian counterparts in Riyadh two weeks ago.

• That meeting created anxiety and anger among Ukrainian leaders who were upset they weren't invited to participate and heard about the meeting from media reports.

Behind the scenes: The upcoming meeting was scheduled on Wednesday during a phone call between White House national security adviser Mike Waltz and Zelensky's chief of staff Andriy Yermak, one source said.

• The meeting is expected to take place in Riyadh with White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio expected to join Waltz, the two sources said. Yermak will lead the Ukrainian delegation.
• Zelensky is expected to visit Saudi Arabia next Monday and Tuesday and meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, according to a Ukrainian official.

What they're saying: Zelensky said on Thursday in Brussels that Ukraine and the U.S. "have resumed work" and expressed hope that "a meaningful meeting will take place next week."

• The White House and Yermak's office didn't comment.

What to watch: Ukrainian officials say they are still ready to sign the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal that Zelensky and Trump were supposed to sign on Friday but was put on hold after their meeting in the Oval Office.

Editor's note: This story was updated with additional details.

President Trump paused 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports covered by a North American trade pact until April 2.

Why it matters: It's the latest abrupt pivot in the Trump administration's trade policy, which is rattling businesses and consumers.

• Trump signed executive actions that said goods covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) — the deal negotiated in his first term — would get a temporary reprieve from tariffs.
• Most energy imports are not covered by the pact. Those goods will still be subject to 10% tariffs that took effect earlier this week, as will goods that face tariffs related to anti-dumping investigations.

The big picture: In the last month, the White House announced tariffs on incoming goods from Mexico and Canada that were later paused, imposed again and now paused once more.

• White House officials emphasized to reporters that the tariffs were implemented to push Canada and Mexico to choke the flow of fentanyl across the borders.

What they're saying: Commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said in a statement that the administration would still impose across-the-board reciprocal tariffs on April 2, actions that could impact Canada and Mexico.

• "Hopefully Mexico and Canada will have done a good enough job on fentanyl that this part of the conversation will be off the table and we will move just to reciprocal tariff conversation," Lutnick said.

The intrigue: The amendment adjusting the tariff plan acknowledges the potential damage of those levies to the auto industry, which trades parts across North American borders.

• The auto industry was the first to get a reprieve, just one day after the tariffs took effect.
• White House officials said the sector-specific pause that kicked off the broader tariff halt was not a result of the negative reaction across the stock market.
• Rather officials said that the pause came after the Big 3 automakers — Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis — committed to moving supply chains to the U.S.

Between the lines: The stock market has bounced up and down in recent days in response to reports about tariffs — generally falling on news of tariffs being imposed and rising on any headline about a pullback.

• But that pattern broke Thursday. Stocks not only remained in the red, but fell further after Trump posted to Truth Social about a pause.
• The S&P 500 closed down 1.8%.

What to watch: There is growing evidence that tariff uncertainty might jolt the global economy. Consumers have ramped up inflation expectations in the wake of tariffs.

• "The fact that the stock market goes up or down a half percent on any given day is not the driving force of our outcomes," Lutnick said in a statement.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with closing stock market statistics.

Republicans overwhelmingly support President Trump's tariffs in spite of the higher costs they're likely to face as a result of them, according to a new Economist/YouGov poll out this week.

Why it matters: After promising to lower prices if elected, Trump's tariffs targeting the U.S.'s biggest trade partners will cost the average American household at least $830 per year, economists have warned.

• Trump eased some tariffs on the U.S.' North American neighbors with temporary carve-outs for the auto sector, an industry that relies on free trade with Canada and Mexico.
• The White House is also reportedly considering exemptions for some agricultural goods from the tariffs on Canada and Mexico, Bloomberg reported.

Driving the news: Republicans expressed the strongest support for a 10% tariff on goods from China, with 78% approving of it. Trump has since increased the levy to 20%.

• Just 23% of Democrats and 42% of Independents said they supported a tariff on goods from China.
• The GOP support for 25% tariffs on Canada (57%) and Mexico (68%) was lower, but far outpaced the number of Democrats and Independents who approved of them.

Between the lines: Over half of Republican respondents (56%) acknowledged that increasing tariffs generally increases prices.

• 13% said they thought there would be no effect on prices, while 9% said tariffs would decrease prices and 22% weren't sure.
• 40% of Republicans said that mostly companies and people in the country exporting products would ultimately bear the cost of tariffs.
• Meanwhile, 39% agreed that mostly companies and people in the U.S. would bear the brunt, while 20% said they weren't sure.

The other side: Three-quarters of Democrats said U.S. companies and consumers would mostly feel the cost, with only 10% saying companies and people in the exporting country would.

• 82% of Democrats said that tariffs would increase prices.

State of play: Trump on the campaign trail floated tariffs as "the greatest thing ever invented" and cast them as an economic cure-all.

• Tariffs can raise revenues for imposing governments, but they can also hurt domestic companies and consumers.
• Soybean farmers are one such case study: They've yet to recover the market share in China lost during the Trump 1.0 trade war and now face renewed uncertainty.

Thought bubble, from Axios' Managing Editor for Business & Markets Ben Berkowitz: The results make clear most Americans simply don't believe Trump's long-lived argument that tariffs don't raise prices, and that it's the tariffed countries who really pay.

• Whether they support the tariffs or not may not be relevant in the end, if the mere belief that prices will rise is enough to keep eroding consumer sentiment and holding people back from making big purchases.
• That may be why Trump's language has shifted subtly in recent months, from prices will go down (campaign trail) to prices won't rise as fast (transition) to "a little disturbance" in prices (now).

Methodology: The poll of 1,638 U.S. adults was conducted on March 1-4 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.7% percentage points.

Go deeper: New tariffs hit, but there's a $100 billion hole in the data

After a two-month honeymoon, where the value of just about anything Trump-adjacent rose as he prepared to take office, markets have now soured on many "Trump trades."

Why it matters: At some point, the declines will test whether there's still a "Trump put," as in his first presidency — where Trump tended to swiftly reverse policies the market didn't like — or if Trump 2.0 really doesn't care as much about markets.

The big picture: The economy, as Axios's Courtenay Brown notes, faces a number of potholes, which are all sapping investor confidence.

• But the assets most closely tied to President Trump are falling faster than the broader market — some because hopes about his policies may have exceeded reality, others as consumers and investors sour on the activities of Trump advisors like Elon Musk.

By the numbers: Over the last month, shares of some of the most prominent Trump trade stocks have slumped.

• Peter Thiel's defense contractor Palantir is down 13%, Trump's own social media company Trump Media & Technology Group is down 26% and Musk's Tesla is down 29%.
• Other stocks that rose on hopes of future Trump action are falling on reality, too. Private prison operator GEO Group more than doubled after his election, but is down 10% in the last month.
• All are dramatically underperforming the S&P 500, which is weak too, down 3% over that period. In fact, of the world's major indices, it's one of the worst performers since early February.

The intrigue: It's not just stocks — other Trump trade assets are falling, too.

• "The first crypto president" has seen bitcoin fall 8% in the last month, even factoring in the huge rally he sparked last weekend by advancing the idea of a national crypto reserve.
• The Trump family's own meme coins are tanking, too — Official Trump is down 23% and Melania Meme is down 51%.

Zoom in: Not every Trump trade has gone entirely badly, in the administration's view.

• Yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds are about 14 basis points lower now than they were a month ago, precisely what the administration wants to see over the long term.

Yes, but: Yields aren't falling because things are great, they're falling because the market's nervous about economic growth. As Axios's Felix Salmon notes, recession fears are rising quickly, casting a shadow over markets.

What they're saying: "The tariffs alone aren't enough to hurt the economy in a noticeable way, but when you take tariffs, plus broader worries about the economy, and a Fed that still might take its time on lowering rates, that's when you start to wonder if the record highs in stocks from earlier this year were justified," writes Michael Landsberg, who manages $1 billion as chief investment officer at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management in Florida.

The bottom line: Buy the Trump transition, sell the Trump presidency has worked out relatively well for most investors so far, providing they can stomach what may come next.

The Trump administration's efforts to purge the federal workforce are hitting speed bumps, but they're not stopping.

Why it matters: The firings of tens of thousands of employees happened lightning fast, and more are coming.

• In the meantime workers are eyeing the exits, and the ability of critical government agencies to function is at stake.

Zoom in: In two words, an IRS employee who recently resigned from the agency explained why: "The uncertainty," he told Axios.

• There was the return to office order, but no office to go to. The agency didn't have the space for him. Then there was the "fork in the road" push to resign, rumors of layoffs, and the firings of probationary employees.
• Now the IRS plans to cut its workforce in half, the New York Times reported this week.
• "Are we going to have a job next week? An office?" the IRS employee said, requesting anonymity because he's still working there for a few more days.

Where it stands: Yesterday the USDA was ordered to reinstate nearly 6,000 employees. Last week a federal judge ruled the initial order from the Office of Personnel Management to fire probationary workers was unlawful.

• Though the judge ruled that OPM's orders were illegal, he did not order employees be reinstated for technical reasons, including the plaintiffs' standing to sue and the fact that agencies weren't named defendants.
• The plaintiffs hope the judge will eventually issue such an order, but they must first amend their lawsuit and have another court hearing next week.

Between the lines: Even as some of these fired workers are reinstated, agencies are moving ahead with the next step: Plans to do wide-scale reductions in force that will be harder to overturn.

• In a leaked memo, the Department of Veterans Affairs has outlined its intention to return to 2019 staffing levels, which would mean firing as many as 83,000 workers.

In the meantime, federal workers are in a terrible spot, with no severance, no benefits, and for some, unemployment insurance may be tricky to secure, Michele Evermore, a senior fellow at the National Academy for Social Insurance, told Axios.

The bottom line: Firings, once set in motion, are hard to slow down.

Donald Trump famously believes that "trade wars are good, and easy to win," as he tweeted in 2018. The market, however, believes the opposite: That a trade war is bad, is easy to lose, and could plunge the U.S. into an avoidable recession.

Why it matters: Trump 1.0 listened to the market. Trump 2.0 is very different.

• Traders are no longer convinced they can rely on the "Trump put," the idea that the president will reverse course on policies the market doesn't like.

What they're saying: The clearest articulation of the Trump administration's attitude to the market came from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

• "Wall Street's done great," he said Tuesday, "but we have a focus on small business and the consumers. So we are going to rebalance the economy."

Between the lines: Bessent singled out "the level of the 10-year bond" as "one of the biggest wins for the American people."

• A former macro hedge fund manager, Bessent knows the decline in long-term interest rates is a function of pessimism about future growth, and expectations that the Fed is going to have to keep rates low to stimulate employment.

By the numbers: On February 11, the market put just a 1% probability on the Fed cutting rates four times this year, assuming each cut is 25 basis points.

• Today, the probability of at least four cuts has risen to 30%. The probability of three or more rate cuts has ballooned to 62%.
• Given the stubbornness of inflation, which is likely to become even more stubborn as higher tariffs start to bite, the only reason for the Fed to cut that many times would be a significant economic slowdown, or perhaps even a recession.

The big picture: There is "a new reality of higher domestic prices and weaker growth, owing to Trump's tariff measures," George Vessey, the lead macro strategist at Convera, wrote in a note.

• That in turn is causing the dollar to weaken, which is the opposite of what should happen when tariffs rise, according to textbook economics.
• It's true that all things equal, U.S. tariffs should cause the dollar to strengthen, as fewer dollars get sold to pay for imports.
• But these tariffs are so big, and so potentially damaging to the U.S. economy, that — according to foreign exchange markets — domestic macroeconomic effects are likely to dwarf the effects of capital flows.

Zoom out: The dollar has historically benefited from "safe haven" status. It's a reliable store of value during volatile times.

• When the president of the United States is the person causing all the volatility, however, the dollar looks less attractive on that front.

The bottom line: The stock market is not the economy, especially when it's dominated by megacap tech companies.

• But there are many other indicators of where the markets think the economy is headed, and all of them are flashing "very worried."

A Russian disinformation effort that flooded the web with false claims and propaganda continues to impact the output of major AI chatbots, according to a new report from NewsGuard, shared first with Axios.

Why it matters: The study, which expands on initial findings from last year, comes amid reports that the U.S. is pausing some of its efforts to counter Russian cyber activities.

Driving the news: NewsGuard says that a Moscow-based disinformation network named "Pravda" (the Russian word for truth) is spreading falsehoods across the web.

• Rather than directly sway people, it aims to influence AI chatbot results.
• More than 3.6 million articles were published last year, finding their way into leading Western chatbots, according to the American Sunlight Project.
• "By flooding search results and web crawlers with pro-Kremlin falsehoods, the network is distorting how large language models process and present news and information," NewsGuard said in its report.
• Newsguard said it studied 10 major chatbots—including those from Microsoft, Google, OpenAI, You.com, xAI, Anthropic, Meta, Mistral and Perplexity—and found that a third of the time they recycled arguments made by the Pravda network.

Zoom in: NewsGuard says the Pravda network has spread at least 207 provably false claims, including many related to Ukraine.

• The Pravda network launched in April 2022, following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and has since grown to cover 49 countries and dozens of languages, NewsGuard said.
• Of the 150 sites in the network, about 40 are Russian-language sites using domain names referencing various regions of Ukraine.
• A small number are more focused on themes than regions, it said.
• Pravda is not producing original content itself, NewsGuard says, but instead is aggregating content from others, including Russian state media and pro-Kremlin influencers.

The big picture: Deliberate falsehoods (disinformation) as well as inadvertent misinformation have both been called out as significant — and pressing — risks of generative AI.

• NewsGuard's findings build on a report from February by the U.S.-based American Sunlight Project that warned that the network appeared aimed at influencing chatbots rather than persuading individuals.
• "The long-term risks – political, social, and technological – associated with potential LLM grooming within this network are high," the ASP said at the time.

Between the lines: NewsGuard said the strategy "was foreshadowed in a talk American fugitive-turned-Moscow-based-propagandist John Mark Dougan gave in Moscow last January at a conference of Russian officials."

• Dougan told the crowd: "By pushing these Russian narratives from the Russian perspective, we can actually change worldwide AI."

If you have time to tune into only one person in the interconnected MAGA media ecosystem, follow Donald Trump Jr.

Why it matters: There's no way to track all of the sources. So follow the power and influence. Don Jr. is deeply wired into every major player and most platforms, Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen and Tal Axelrod write in an Axios AM Executive Briefing special report.

Don Jr., 47, is his father's conduit, whisperer and translator of MAGA. President Trump, for all his MAGA clout, has a more traditional media diet, heavy legacy media. Don Jr. eats it all.

• And Don gets credit for amplifying smaller voices of the MAGA faithful — with his father sure to see it. The president gets tweets printed out for him all the time. So he knows what base influencers — and his relatives — are saying.

Another reason to watch the son closely: He'll be a kingmaker if this presidency is considered a success. Vice President Vance, also a MAGA media leading man, is very close to Don Jr. Keep an eye on how much the Trump empire monetizes this presidency — some insiders think the profits could keep MAGA afloat forever.

• Three MAGA figures are particularly close to the extended Trump clan: Tucker Carlson, Turning Point USA's Charlie Kirk and Breitbart's Matt Boyle.

Behind the scenes: Don Jr.'s podcast, "Triggered," singlehandedly drives droves of eyeballs to his favored candidates across the country. We're told he enjoys interviewing them on his show, or simply retweeting them.

• You can ask freshman Republican Sens. Bernie Moreno of Ohio, Jim Banks of Indiana or Tim Sheehy of Montana about the power of Don Jr.'s channels.

💡 Later today: Paid Executive Briefing subscribers get a Zoom briefing by Jim, Mike and a special MAGA expert guest. Plus you'll get this week's 3,500-word special report on MAGA media, and our future MAGA specials. Subscribe here.

Three top political reporters — Josh Dawsey, Tyler Pager and Isaac Arnsdorf — will be out July 8 with "2024: How Trump Retook the White House and the Democrats Lost America," based on 300+ interviews over 18 months.

• "The whole world was against me, and I won," President Trump told the authors in an interview 10 days before his second inauguration.

Why it matters: "2024" promises revelations about "how Trump and his advisers overcame a dozen primary challengers, four indictments, two assassination attempts, and his own past mistakes to defeat the Democrats."

The backstory: The three were colleagues at the Washington Post during the 2024 cycle. Amid Post travails, the trio scattered after the election:

• Dawsey is now a political investigations and enterprise reporter for the Wall Street Journal. Pager is a White House correspondent for the New York Times. And Arnsdorf is a senior White House reporter for the Post.

💭 Pager tells me: "We set out to write this book more than a year before Joe Biden met Donald Trump on the debate stage in Atlanta, because we felt uniquely situated to tell the behind-the-scenes of this historic rematch."

• Dawsey says the authors "obtained recordings and notes of many meetings and traveled across the country."
• Arnsdorf adds that after covering the campaigns in real time, the reporters retraced "every step once we knew the outcome, to pinpoint what really mattered. Even if you read all the daily news coverage published in 2024, you'll find something new on every page."

Go deeper.

Most young Americans have been keeping up with Elon Musk’s DOGE — and it’s not too popular.

The big picture: 87% of 18- to 34-year-olds say they’ve heard a lot or a little about DOGE. And 71% say they strongly or somewhat disapprove of the agency’s work so far, according to a new Generation Lab poll.

• 69% strongly or somewhat disapprove of President Trump’s job performance.

Between the lines: The overall numbers show low approval for Trump and DOGE, but there's a partisan split. There's a great deal of support for both the president and the agency among young Republican respondents.

• 81% who say they're Republican strongly or somewhat approve of Trump, compared with just 10% of Democrats and 29% of Independents.
• 68% of young Republicans approve of DOGE’s work, compared with 9% of Democrats and 29% of Independents.

Methodology: This poll was conducted Feb. 21-28 from a representative sample of 972 18- to 34-year-olds nationwide. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points.

Buy your local economist a drink: The economic backdrop is more chaotic and uncertain than it's been in years — a result of fast-moving and sometimes vague Trump policy.

Why it matters: There is a growing list of factors that could put downward pressure on the economy — tariffs, spending cuts, a looming government shutdown and more.

• America's economy has defied naysayers, but there is no guarantee that continues.
• Forecasters are writing GDP and inflation estimates in pencil, warning that their models can't possibly account for all the ways the jumble of policies could net out.

What they're saying: "It's really drinking from a fire hose at this point," Brian Gardner, chief Washington strategist at Stifel, tells Axios.

• "Trying to understand where things are going is unusually difficult, historically difficult," Gardner adds.

Where it stands: The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, a "nowcast" that uses released data to estimate GDP in real-time, suggests the economy is contracting sharply.

• That is almost certainly not the case, but it is a signal of the huge question marks about what's ahead for the economy.

The backdrop

Trump's epic trade war: The longer the North American and U.S.-China trade war lasts, the more damage it risks for the economy.

• Trump said automakers would get a month-long reprieve from Canada and Mexico tariffs. It was welcomed by the auto industry, though it injected more uncertainty about what happens after the delay.
• More tariffs are on the horizon in the weeks ahead, including a reciprocal plan on April 2 that Trump has called "the big one."

DOGE spending cuts: Tens of thousands of federal workers have been fired or taken a buyout, with more layoffs to come, though some efforts have been halted by federal judges.

• Government employees make up a small share of the overall workforce, but the effects of nixed contracts could ripple out to the private sector.

Shutdown threat: Congress has until March 14 to pass a bill to fund the government or risk a shutdown.

• Republicans want to pass a budget that chops spending to pave the way to enact Trump's fiscal agenda — a difficult task without cutbacks to politically sensitive (and expensive) entitlement programs.
• A prolonged shutdown would delay the data releases necessary to gauge any economic impact from the factors listed here.

Tax cuts: Some CEOs say the extension of Trump 1.0 tax cuts could offset potential economic weakness from the trade war.

• Concerns about blowing out the deficit might hamper that effort.
• The price tag is ballooning. In a congressional address, Trump called for no tax on tips, overtime or Social Security benefits. He pitched tax-deductible interest payments on loans for U.S.-made cars.

Immigration: The construction industry has warned about the potential double-whammy from deportations that could dent labor supply.

Two other factors to watch

Interest rates: The Fed has adopted a wait-and-see approach as inflation looks more sticky and White House policy remains in flux.

• Some economists warn that the trade war could keep inflation high and slow the economy, forcing the Fed to choose: elevated rates to control inflation, or lower rates to contain economic fallout.

AI adoption: In the background of all these factors is questions about how quickly companies are folding AI into their business models — and the ultimate impact on productivity and workforces.

• Companies are investing (or planning to invest) billions of dollars into data centers to power AI that, if fully materialized, might boost the economy.

Florida's next attorney general could be the ex-congressman who almost became President Trump's U.S. attorney general: Matt Gaetz.

Why it matters: Despite the intense controversy he generated before withdrawing his nomination to be in Trump's Cabinet, Gaetz still has strong name ID and is well-liked enough among Florida's GOP base to be a formidable candidate.

• In a hypothetical primary matchup against Attorney General James Uthmeier, Gaetz was favored 39%-21%, according to a recent survey of likely Republican voters by Tony Fabrizio, one of the nation's top pollsters who works for Donald Trump and several GOP clients.

Zoom in: There's already a war of words brewing between Gaetz and Uthmeier supporters over right-wing influencers Andrew and Tristan Tate, the Florida men who recently were allowed to return to the U.S. after facing sex-trafficking charges in Romania.

• Uthmeier on Tuesday announced an investigation into the Tates. Gaetz — who as a member of Congress faced allegations of paying a minor for sex — has criticized Uthmeier's motives.

Reality check: A race against Uthmeier would be no slam dunk for Gaetz. Fabrizio's poll found 40% of GOP voters were undecided.

• "2026 is going to be a dynamic year in Florida politics, for sure," Gaetz told Axios. "I'm humbled that so many Florida Republicans support me. Sometimes the AG itch doesn't go away with one scratch."
• Gaetz has considered running for state attorney general in the past and hasn't ruled it out in 2026. He's also told others he might run for governor.
• A spokesperson for Uthmeier couldn't be reached.

Zoom out: In red-state Florida, the victor of in a GOP primary in a statewide race is typically the odds-on favorite to win in the general election. Registered Republicans in Florida now outnumber Democrats by 1 million.

The intrigue: Florida's 2026 ballot could be full of must-watch races.

• U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds (R) is running for governor and Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis is considering a bid. Her husband, Gov. Ron DeSantis, is in his second four-year term and can't run again under state law.
• Donalds has been endorsed by Trump, but the governor and first lady met with Trump last weekend at the president's International golf club in West Palm Beach to try to curry his favor.
• Uthmeier has never run for statewide office. He was chief of staff for DeSantis, who appointed Uthmeier attorney general two weeks ago to fill the seat vacated by Ashley Moody. DeSantis had appointed Moody to fill Marco Rubio's U.S. Senate seat, which he gave up to become Trump's secretary of state.

Flashback: Gaetz quit Congress and then his bid for the top Justice Department post amid a crush of terrible headlines related to a years-long sex-trafficking investigation that resulted in no charges.

• Gaetz maintained his innocence and characterized a related House Ethics Committee investigation as a witch hunt driven by allies of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), whose ouster Gaetz engineered.

Whether Gaetz runs or not, the investigation into the Tate brothers after they arrived last week in Florida has elevated Uthmeier's profile. The Tates deny wrongdoing and criticized Uthmeier and DeSantis, who denounced them.

• "Ron DeSantis is attacking me because he was worried I would support Byron Donalds over his wife," Andrew Tate posted Tuesday night on X. "They attacked me to prevent me from destroying his wife's political ambitions."

Gaetz chimed in on Wednesday.

• "DeSantis/hisAG are using you to virtue signal against the unrighteous," Gaetz wrote on X.
• "It's all just posturing," Gaetz said. "Hell, Florida even let O.J. Simpson move here, so if you haven't committed any crimes you have little to fear from the Sunshine State."

Fabrizio's poll of 600 likely Republican voters in Florida was conducted via landline and cellphone live callers on Feb. 26-27. It has a +/- error of 4 percentage points.

There will — and must — always be "humans in the loop," tech leaders reassure the world when they publicly address fears that AI will eliminate jobs, make mistakes or destroy society.

Why it matters: Who these humans are, what the loop is and where exactly the people fit into it remain very much up for grabs. How the industry answers those questions will shape what work looks like in the future.

Here are three ways of thinking about what "humans in the loop" can mean.

1. AI assists humans

Chatbots need us to prompt them or give them instructions in order to work. Agents are also assistants, but they require less supervision from humans.

• As agents' abilities grow, keeping humans in the loop ensures "that AI systems make decisions that align with human judgment, ethics, and goals," Fay Kallel, VP of product and design at Intuit Mailchimp, told Axios in an email.
• "By automating tedious tasks, we create space for creative and strategic work," Kelly Moran, VP of engineering, search and AI at Slack, told Axios.
• "Our data shows that AI use leans more toward augmentation (57%) compared to automation (43%)," an Anthropic spokesperson told Axios in an email. "In most cases, AI isn't replacing people but collaborating with them."
• "Humans aren't always rowing the boat — but we're very much steering the ship," Paula Goldman, chief ethical and humane use officer at Salesforce, wrote last year.

2. AI hands over the wheel at key moments

As agents grow more common and more capable, systems are likely to build in checkpoints for human involvement.

• In a demo last month, Operator, OpenAI's ChatGPT-based agent for accomplishing online tasks, made dinner reservations, called an Uber and purchased concert tickets.
• But at key moments, Operator switched into a "takeover mode" to let the human user enter login credentials, payment details or other sensitive information.

3. Humans review AI's final work

Most chatbot users have learned by now that genAI needs a fact-checker.

• Bots can make things up, misinterpret data or make incorrect recommendations. Even as models get smarter, humans are often still required to audit an AI's work.
• "By design, systems must be built with checkpoints for human experience and judgment, allowing for verification when appropriate without losing the efficiency gains AI provides," Allan Thygesen, CEO at Docusign, said in an email.
• Because of "the probabilistic nature of the technology," George C. Lee, co-head of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute, told Axios that the company uses human "checkers," especially for sensitive workflows.

Reality check: The idea of keeping "humans in the loop" assumes that humans are better at making decisions than AI, which isn't always true.

• "We're accustomed to trusting humans," Stefano Soatto, professor of computer science at UCLA and VP at Amazon Web Services, told Axios — but "not all humans are trustworthy."

Between the lines: The ability to provide oversight and to understand what tasks should be handed off to AI are the skills that human workers will need in the future, says Kelly Monahan, managing director of the research institute at Upwork.

• As a freelance platform, Upwork is able to see trends of how work is shifting faster than you might see at a job level.
• Monahan told Axios that Upwork's clients are searching for more "high-value work" and that includes people with "the ability to read context, to be creative, to be empathetic, all those unique qualities that actually make us intelligent."

The intrigue: Most modern generative AI systems have been trained, in part, by humans.

• Humans select, clean and label data to fine-tune AI models to teach them how to answer questions or understand images.
• Humans decide what they want the model to achieve and what safeguards or values an AI model has.
• OpenAI also uses humans to score AI answers, which is a key way models get better. This is known as reinforcement learning with human feedback.

Zoom in: It's becoming increasingly unclear when human oversight is necessary, when AI should take the lead and what risks we're willing to take along the way.

• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman explored this dilemma from a military AI perspective at a Brookings Center discussion last year.
• "I've never heard anyone advocate that AI should get to make decisions about launching nuclear weapons. I've also never heard anyone advocate that AI shouldn't be used to intercept inbound missiles where you have to act really quickly," Altman told the moderators.
• "And then there's this whole area in the middle...If there's like a plane coming to bomb South Korea and you don't have time to have a human in the loop, and you can make an intercept decision or not, but you're very sure that it's happening, like how sure do you have to be? What would be the expected impact on human life? Where do you draw the line in that gray area?"
• "I hope this is never an OpenAI decision," Altman added.

What we're watching: As AI's abilities improve and the gap between human and machine intelligence narrows, today's "humans in the loop" promise could end up as just a placeholder.