The MAGA movement is reveling in the creativity, severity and accelerating force of President Trump's historic immigration crackdown.

Why it matters: Once-fringe tactics — an alligator-moated detention camp, deportations to war zones, denaturalization of immigrant citizens — are now being proudly embraced at the highest levels of the U.S. government.

• It's an extraordinary shift from Trump's first term, when nationwide backlash and the appearance of cruelty forced the administration to abandon its family separation policy for unauthorized immigrants.
• Six months into his second term — and with tens of billions of dollars in new funding soon flowing to ICE — Trump is only just beginning to scale up his mass deportation machine.

Driving the news: Trump on Tuesday toured a temporary ICE facility in the Florida Everglades dubbed "Alligator Alcatraz," where thousands of migrants will be detained in a remote, marshland environment teeming with predators.

• MAGA influencers invited on the trip gleefully posted photos of the prison's cages and souvenir-style "merchandise," thrilling their followers and horrifying critics.
• Pro-Trump activist Laura Loomer drew outrage after tweeting that "alligators are guaranteed at least 65 million meals if we get started now" — widely interpreted as a reference to the Hispanic population of the United States.

The big picture: Citing the millions of unauthorized immigrants who crossed the border under President Biden, Trump and his MAGA allies have framed the second-term crackdown as a long-overdue purge.

• The result is an increasingly draconian set of enforcement measures designed to deter, expel and make examples out of unauthorized immigrants.
• Some newer members of the MAGA coalition, such as podcaster Joe Rogan, have expressed deep discomfort with the targeting of non-criminal undocumented immigrants.

Zoom in: Trump's deportation efforts exploded into a full-blown spectacle in March, when the U.S. flew hundreds of alleged gang members to a notorious mega-prison in El Salvador.

• The operation was captured in glitzy promotional footage, distributed on official White House social media, that showed shaved and shackled migrants being marched off planes and busses at gunpoint.
• Kilmar Ábrego García, a Maryland man who was mistakenly deported to El Salvador but brought back to face human trafficking charges in the U.S., claims he suffered "severe beatings" and was tortured in the prison.

Zoom out: Trump's immigration toolkit has expanded since March, as his aides push for a dramatically higher pace of arrests and deportations.

• Trump federalized the National Guard in California and deployed troops in Los Angeles to protect federal ICE agents, giving the military a rare and highly contentious role in immigration raids.
• The Supreme Court has allowed the Trump administration to deport undocumented immigrants to non-origin countries — including war torn nations such as South Sudan and Libya.
• Hundreds of migrants are being held at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. This week, Trump claimed that "conceptual work" is underway to reopen Alcatraz — the decrepit former island prison in San Francisco, now a tourist site.

The latest: On Thursday, ICE announced it had arrested and was preparing to deport Mexican boxer Julio César Chávez Jr. — accusing him of cartel ties just days after he headlined an arena against influencer Jake Paul.

What to watch: Denaturalization of U.S. citizens — once a legal backwater — is gaining traction as Trump and his MAGA allies push the envelope on nativist rhetoric.

• The Justice Department has begun prioritizing stripping naturalized Americans of their citizenship when they're charged with crimes and "illegally procured or misrepresented facts in the naturalization process."
• But some MAGA influencers are pushing to weaponize denaturalization more broadly — not just as a legal remedy for fraud, but as a tool to punish ideological opponents.

Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) has called for the Justice Department to investigate the Democratic nominee for mayor of New York City, Zohran Mamdani, who was born in Uganda and became a U.S. citizen in 2018.

• Trump has echoed false claims about Mamdani being in the country "illegally," and threatened to arrest the democratic socialist if he impedes federal immigration operations in New York.

Between the lines: For MAGA influencers obsessed with the notion of protecting Western civilization, denaturalization is also about enforcing cultural loyalty.

• Prominent voices on the right have argued that immigrants who haven't properly "assimilated" — by their definition — should be vulnerable to losing their citizenship.
• "The MAGA movement is willing to make examples of the people who have failed to [assimilate] so that in the future, the bar is set higher," said Raheem Kassam, editor of The National Pulse.

The bottom line: MAGA is leveraging a precedent-busting president to set a new standard for immigration enforcement — one that could define Republican policy for years to come.

• "We expect you to enforce, in full measure, the immigration laws," the Conservative Partnership Institute's Rachel Bovard told Axios.
• "Anything that departs from this, to some extent, is going to be viewed as backsliding by the next president."

It's not food, it's not chewing tobacco and it's not gum — though it might look like it when you see it — but it is becoming America's new addictive obsession.

Why it matters: Sales of Zyn nicotine pouches are soaring, prompting the tobacco company that makes them to scramble to boost U.S. production to meet demand.

The big picture: People are popping nicotine pouches into their mouths at games, at the movies, at the workplace, at home, at the store — it's America's new addictive habit.

• Celebrity Josh Brolin even admitted to using it while sleeping (which is not recommended).

How it works: Zyn pouches are placed between the gum and lip, gradually releasing nicotine over time.

• The pouches are discreet and don't produce smoke or odors like cigarettes.

Threat level: The product is addictive because nicotine is addictive.

• But it does not cause cancer since it doesn't contain tobacco, whose harmful chemicals are carcinogenic. As a result, advocates say nicotine pouches can serve as a safer alternative to smoking.
• Philip Morris International U.S. CEO Stacey Kennedy argued that nicotine is "misunderstood" and contains "cognitive benefits."
• "You have to be able to separate out the misconceptions of what causes harm — and nicotine is probably one of the most misunderstood compounds, because many people believe that nicotine is responsible for smoking-related disease, and it's not," Kennedy said in an interview.

Yes, but: Tobacco industry watchdogs say products that contain nicotine, such as pouches and e-cigarettes, can serve as a gateway to smoking, especially for teens.

• "Tobacco companies have a long history of lying to Congress and the public about the addictiveness of nicotine, so they're not a credible source of information about nicotine," Yolonda C. Richardson, CEO of the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids, told Axios in an email.
• "While those who smoke heavily and have been unable to quit may potentially benefit from switching completely to nicotine pouches, there is a concern that they may appeal to adolescents and other new users of nicotine, particularly through the way they are featured in advertisements," according to a synopsis of a Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health study.

By the numbers: U.S. shipments of Zyn pouches rose 177% from the first quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2025.

• The company got 42% of its revenue from smoke-free products in Q1 2025 as it pursues its goal of one day ending cigarette sales — a stated objective that critics say is hollow given that smokers continue to deliver substantial revenue.
• PMI — which sells cigarettes outside of the U.S. but does not sell them here — still gets a majority of its revenue from smokers, but that's likely to flip soon as Zyn sales continue to grow. (PMI split off from Philip Morris USA owner Altria Group in 2008. Their deal called for Altria to sell Marlboro cigarettes in the U.S., while Philip Morris International would sell them in other markets.)

State of play: Sales could accelerate further after the FDA, in the final days of the Biden administration, authorized the marketing of 20 Zyn products following an extensive scientific review.

• Matthew Farrelly, director of the Office of Science in the FDA's Center for Tobacco Products, noted in the FDA's announcement about Zyn's marketing approval that "the data show that these nicotine pouch products" are "benefiting adults who use cigarettes and/or smokeless tobacco products and completely switch to these products."
• Now the company is adding a $600 million plant in Aurora, Colorado, to boost production.

The big question: Will the Trump administration be friendly to nicotine pouches?

• So far the new leadership at the Department of Health and Human Services and the FDA have said little about their approach to tobacco and nicotine product regulation.
• An HHS spokesperson recently told Axios that the FDA's "position is centered on reducing the harm caused by nicotine addiction — particularly through combustible tobacco products like cigarettes — while exploring strategies to make less harmful alternatives available to adults who are trying to quit smoking."
• "Nicotine itself, while addictive, is not the primary cause of smoking-related disease and death. Those are caused by the thousands of harmful chemicals in combustible tobacco," the spokesperson said.
• The FDA is "working to reduce nicotine levels in cigarettes to minimally addictive or non-addictive levels, aiming to prevent youth initiation and help current smokers quit."

The bottom line: Once you become aware of nicotine pouches, you'll start to spot people using them.

President Trump said the U.S. will begin sending letters Monday to other countries setting a tariff rate on their imports.

Why it matters: After months of threats, Trump is abruptly re-escalating the trade war.

• For businesses craving certainty, who've had a period of relative calm of late, the move could once again upset that balance.
• It also injects a new risk into financial markets that have largely moved on to a post-tariff world. European stocks, and U.S. stock futures, fell Friday as Trump warned the letters were coming.

Catch up quick: Trump told reporters late Friday aboard Air Force One that about a dozen letters would go out Monday.

• He didn't say which nations would be targeted, or what rates would be set.
• On Thursday, he said the rates in the letters would go into effect August 1 — and warned some could be as high as 70%.

Yes, but: The administration has used a similar tactic before — taking an aggressive posture on coming tariffs, but with a deadline just far enough out that trading partners could still bring last-minute offers the president would be willing to accept.

• Reports in recent days suggest multiple trading partners, including South Korea and Thailand, are scrambling to do just that.

Flashback: Trump set a new regime of sweeping global tariffs on April 2, only to pause much of it a week later.

• At that time, his administration promised 90 trade days in 90 days. Through the first 85 days, it made three — with the UK, China and Vietnam.
• In mid-May, Trump began indicating deals weren't really necessary, because the U.S. would simply send letters to trading partners in subsequent days setting a rate.
• He made the same threat again in mid-June, and once more late in the month, noting he preferred the letters as a simpler solution than complex talks with dozens of countries.

Between the lines: Though the tariff pause is due to expire July 9, some countries, like China and Canada, have separate deadlines later in the month or next month.

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated the deadlines are fungible and the goal is to be done with trade deals by Labor Day.

What we're watching: It's not clear how aggressive Trump intends to be with these new tariff rates.

• The Vietnam deal, for example, included a 20% rate — double the global baseline Trump imposed, but less than half what the country originally faced in April.

Authorities say 24 people died and between 23 and 25 children are missing from a girls camp after severe flash floods in Central Texas.

The big picture: The catastrophic flooding happened early Friday morning in an area about 65 miles northwest of San Antonio after the Guadalupe River surged following heavy rainfall.

The latest: Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha said during a news conference Friday night that 24 people were confirmed dead.

• Officials said more than 230 people were rescued or evacuated, most by helicopter, throughout Friday.

Zoom in: The river surged to as high 26 feet in just 45 minutes and reached nearly 30 feet in some areas, washing out roads, authorities said.

• "The amount of rain that fell in this specific location was never" in any forecasts, said chief Nim Kidd of the Texas Division of Emergency Management.
• The floods came so fast even an emergency vehicle was swept away, officials said.

Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said during a news conference Friday afternoon that Camp Mystic had more than 700 kids and began evacuating overnight.

What they're saying: "Rest assured, no one knew this kind of flood was coming. This is the most dangerous river valley in the United States," Kerry County Judge Rob Kelly said when asked why campsites weren't evacuated Thursday night.

• Patrick said officials would do "everything humanly possible" to find the missing girls, adding Texas officials have been in touch with the White House.
• Gov. Greg Abbott, who on Friday night declared a state of disaster, called the event an "extraordinary catastrophe" and vowed to continue providing resources until everyone is accounted for.

Editor's note: This is a developing story and has been updated with new information.

President Trump on Friday signed his signature tax and spending legislation, the "big beautiful bill," into law, meeting a July 4 deadline that at times appeared out of reach.

Why it matters: It's a huge achievement for Trump and congressional Republicans that will reshape federal fiscal policy for years to come. The megabill cuts funding for social safety measures, extends tax cuts —primarily for the wealthy — and finances Trump's immigration agenda.

Driving the news: Trump signed the measure as part of a highly staged White House Independence Day celebration featuring a bomber jet flyover and the annual fireworks on the National Mall.

What they're saying: Trump called the bill "the greatest victory yet" while addressing a crowd at the White House in a speech saying his administration has kept its promises.

• "This is the single most popular bill ever signed," he said despite polls showing it's deeply unpopular.
• He also praised the Iran mission and "unmatched" military, which he talked about rebuilding and modernizing.

Catch up quick: The House narrowly cleared the bill for Trump's signature Thursday after it passed the Senate two days earlier.

• Both moderate and conservative House Republicans called for adjustments to the bill after the Senate made changes, but none were made before the final vote.

State of play: The legislation slashes food and health benefits for the poorest Americans, which could lead to overcrowded emergency rooms, an increase in chronic health care issues, more medical debt and ballooning hunger.

• Meanwhile, it boosts funding for immigration enforcement, allowing the administration to approximately double immigrant detention capacity and hire significantly more enforcement personnel.

Behind the scenes: Polling from throughout June showed that Americans largely disapprove of the megabill.

• Ahead of midterm elections, Republicans plan to message their legislative victory by branding Democrats' opposition as voting to raise taxes on small businesses and American families.
• Democrats have their own campaign planned based around their opposition to the bill, which they're planning to make a centerpiece of their strategy for taking back the House in 2026.

Go deeper:

• Where SNAP cuts in Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" could hit Americans hardest
• How the GOP spending bill will fund immigration enforcement
• "Big, beautiful bill" pushes millions of people away from social safety net

Elon Musk on Friday floated an electoral strategy for his hypothetical political party, via a post on X.

Why it matters: Musk is the world's richest man and his dollars could make a difference in tight races next November.

Catch up quick: Musk helped bankroll President Trump's reelection, but the pair since have fallen out.

• Most recently, Musk has been an outspoken critic of Trump's signature legislation, which the Tesla CEO believes is fiscally irresponsible and hurts America's global competitiveness.

What he's saying: Musk first asked X followers if they "want independence from the two party (some would say uniparty) system," and thus would support the creation of "the America Party."

He then added:

The bottom line: Musk didn't identify any specific races, so for now this is just a trial balloon.

President Trump told Ukrainian President Zelensky in a call on Friday that the U.S. wants to help Ukraine with air defense, due to escalating Russian attacks, a Ukrainian official and a source with knowledge of the call said.

Why it matters: Earlier this week the Pentagon paused a weapons shipment, including air defense interceptors and ammunication, to Ukraine's army.

• The decision caught Ukraine and many Trump administration officials surprise.

Behind the scenes: The two sources said the call between Trump and Zelensky lasted around 40 minutes, with a major focus on Ukraine's air defense needs.

• One source said Trump was aware of the recent Russia escalation, including both air strikes on Ukrainian cities and on the frontline.
• "Trump said he wants to help with air defense and that he will check what was put on hold if anything," the source said.
• The Ukrainian official said Trump and Zelensky agreed that teams from the U.S. and Ukraine soon will meet to discuss air defense and other weapons supplies.
• The White House didn't respond to a request for comment.

What they are saying: Zelensky wrote on X that he spoke to Trump about "opportunities in air defense" and that they "agreed that we will work together to strengthen protection of our skies."

• "We - in Ukraine - are grateful for all the support provided. It helps us protect lives, safeguard our freedom and independence. We have achieved a lot together with America and we support all efforts to stop the killings and restore just, lasting, and dignified peace. A noble agreement for peace is needed," Zelensky wrote.

Driving the news: Trump spoke with Russian president Putin on Thursday about the war in Ukraine, but later stressed that no progress has been made.

• Putin told Trump that Russia will not give up on its war objectives in Ukraine, signaling he isn't interested in peace anytime soon.
• After the call, Russia escalated its air strikes on Ukraine — launching hundreds of drones and a dozen ballistic missiles.
• "I am very disappointed with the conversation I had with Putin because I don't think he's there. He's not looking to stop. I wasn't happy with the conversation," Trump told reporters on Friday morning.

President Trump on Friday morning said he was unaware that the word "Shylock" is considered by some to be antisemitic, after using it during a Thursday night rally in Iowa.

What to know: Shylock, the villain of Shakespeare's "The Merchant of Venice," was written as a greedy and vengeful Jewish moneylender who eventually is forced to convert to Christianity.

What Trump said at the rally: "Think of that: no death tax, no estate tax, no going to the banks and borrowing from, in some cases, a fine banker. And in some cases, Shylocks and bad people."

What the Anti Defamation League said via X: "The term 'Shylock' evokes a centuries-old antisemitic trope about Jews and greed that is extremely offensive and dangerous. President Trump's use of the term is very troubling and irresponsible. It underscores how lies and conspiracies about Jews remain deeply entrenched in our country. Words from our leaders matter and we expect more from the President of the United States."

What Trump said the next day to reporters: "I've never heard it that way. To me, Shylock is somebody that's a money lender at high rates. I've never heard it that way, you view it differently than me. I've never heard that."

Flashback: In 2014, then-Vice President Biden used the term "Shylocks" to refer to rapacious bankers, after which he apologized for his "poor choice of words."

With B-2 bombers booming above, President Trump will deliver a motherlode of campaign promises for his supporters Friday, decimate his predecessor's priorities and demonstrate his total dominance over the Republican Party.

Why it matters: The MAGA mega bill is more than just an indisputable victory for the president and the party he has remade in his image.

• It's also a stinging defeat for Democrats — but has given them fodder for the 2026 midterms.
• With the stroke of his signature, Trump will undo the solar, wind and electric vehicles tax cuts that were at the core of President Biden's signature Inflation Reduction Act.
• Trump will sign into law some long-term GOP goals, like making business tax credits permanent, changing how Congress counts tax cuts, pouring billions into border security, and slowing the growth of Medicaid and SNAP spending.
• The big tax cuts will apply this year. Most of the spending cuts will hit after the midterms.
• "It's going to make this country into a rocket ship," Trump said.

Zoom out: The country will little note, nor long remember how Congress passed this bill: the all-nighters, the nail-biters and the GOP false fighters, who ultimately tapped out for Trump.

• But Democrats will make it their mission to ensure that voters don't forget what Trump and congressional Republicans did in the bill.
• The tax cuts, they say, will benefit the already-wealthy the most — and the Medicaid cuts that target the poor could devastate health care options for millions.

Democrats will concede they lost on policy, but convinced they'll win — eventually — on the politics.

• For eight hours and 45 minutes Thursday, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries held up the GOP-led chamber's vote in favor of Trump's big bill, energizing his party (and his donors) by previewing attack lines certain to be distilled to 30-second TV ads for the 2026 campaign.
• "This is a crime scene," he thundered from the House floor.

The intrigue: Democrats will mischievously borrow some Republican lines that were dropped along the way amid GOP anxiety over the bill's impacts.

• "The Medicaid stuff in here is bad," said Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.).
• "Garbage," declared Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) earlier this week. "It's a good bill overall," he said after voting for it.
• Expect those comments — along with Sen. Joni Ernst's "we are all going to die" shrug when the Iowa Republican was asked about Medicaid cuts — to be featured on local TV stations.

By the numbers: In all, the tax cuts total $4.5 trillion over a decade, leading to $3.3 trillion in deficit spending, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

• Republicans will say the real winners are the 83% of households that would have been hit with a tax increase if Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act had expired at the end of the year.
• Democrats will focus on the more than $1 trillion in cuts to Medicaid, which is projected to put nearly 12 million Americans at risk of losing their health care and threaten rural hospitals across the country.
• Trump is giving his MAGA faithful $170 billion in border and immigration funds and $150 billion for defense spending.
• The oil and gas industry got many of its priorities.
• Also tucked into the bill: a rise in the nation's debt ceiling by $5 trillion.

Then there are the Trumpian touches to the bill, such as no taxes on tips, a suggestion he got from a Las Vegas waitress.

• And for babies lucky enough to be born during Trump's second reign, there are $1,000 checks, to be placed in "Trump accounts."
• But Trump quietly gave up on his plans to tax carried interest as regular income, a major win for the private equity industry.

The bottom line: Four score and seven days ago, the S&P 500 closed at its lowest point of Trump's presidency.

• Yesterday it closed at a new record high, its seventh this year.
• The economy — for now — appears to be shrugging off his tariffs, with the Labor Department reporting 147,000 new jobs in June, defying expectations.

Starting with America's 250th birthday celebration, President Trump is planning a years-long mega-celebration that puts him at the center of the world's biggest events.

Why it matters: Trump's vision for the semiquincentennial goes beyond purely American fare to showcase the country's military, economic and cultural power on a global stage.

• His expansive vision for a nonstop American celebration includes the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles, The Atlantic recently reported.
• Trump is floating additional programming like a "Great American State Fair," "Patriot Games" and a "Freedom Plane" inspired by the Bicentennial-era "Freedom Train."
• In keeping with his love of spectacle, a New Year's Eve-style ball drop in Times Square has been discussed.

Driving the news: Trump's speech at the Iowa State Fairgrounds Thursday night served as the formal kickoff to the celebrations and an opportunity to brag about congressional Republicans passing his "one big, beautiful bill."

• The president soft-launched 250 this year with a rare military parade to honor the Army in D.C., which coincided with nationwide "No Kings" and anti-ICE protests.
• More military branches' birthdays will be recognized this fall, with celebrations planned for the Marines and Navy.
• Trump said last night his 250th anniversary plans include a UFC fight on the grounds of the White House.

Zoom in: Some of the planned activities for America 250 are more squarely around American pride, like a student-focused America's Field Trip.

• Trump wants his proposed sculpture park, dubbed the National Garden of American Heroes, to be ready by July 2026. The plans feature life-size statues of figures like Ronald Reagan, Whitney Houston and Jackie Robinson — "all approved by Trump," as the Wall Street Journal reported.
• "We're going to have a big, big celebration, as you know — 250 years," Trump said at Arlington Cemetery in late May. "In some ways, I'm glad I missed that second term because I wouldn't be your president for that. Can you imagine? I missed that four years. And now look what I have."

Reality check: The turbocharged celebrations come as Americans report record-low levels of patriotic pride.

State of play: Preparations for America's 250th birthday have been underway since roughly 2016 under former President Obama, though they've taken a more MAGA bent since January.

• There are two main organizers at the national level: the White House's Task Force 250, which Trump chairs and established via an executive order in his first week in office, and the congressional America250 Commission, which was established in 2016, meant to be nonpartisan and is backed by a nonprofit.

Ex-Fox News producer Ariel Abergel, who interned in Trump's first White House and finished college in 2021, is now America250's executive director.

• Other Trump allies like fundraiser Meredith O'Rourke and Trump adviser Chris LaCivita serve roles in the foundation supporting the America250 commission's work.
• Outside of the federal planning effort, expect state-level programming across the country.

The intrigue: Donors to America250 include companies that have been seen as Trump-friendly, like Amazon, Coinbase and the Ultimate Fighting Championship.

President Trump will host a UFC fight at the White House as part of celebrations marking 250 years since the signing of the U.S. Declaration of Independence, he announced at a Thursday rally in Iowa.

The big picture: "Every one of our national park battlefields and historic sites are going to have special events in honor of 'America250' and I even think we're going to have a UFC fight," Trump said on the eve of the July Fourth holiday during a speech at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines that kicked off yearlong 250th anniversary celebrations.

• The president's links to the Ultimate Fighting Championship date back to at least 2001, when the since-closed Trump Taj Mahal hosted the mixed martial arts enterprise.
• Trump's attended multiple UFC fights since then and is good friends with the enterprise's CEO, Dana White, who introduced Trump at the Republican National Convention before he accepted the GOP presidential nomination last year.

Zoom in: Trump said White would organize the White House UFC event.

• "It's going to be a championship fight, full fight, like 20,000 to 25,000 people and we're going to do that as part of '250' also," he said.
• Other celebrations will include "the great American State Fair" that will "bring America250 programming for fairgrounds across the country, culminating in a giant patriotic festival next summer on the National Mall, featuring exhibits from all 50 states," according to Trump.

What they're saying: White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump is "dead serious" about the UFC fight plans, per a White House pool report.

• Representatives for the UFC did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment on Thursday evening.

What we're watching: Trump plans to hold a "Signing Celebration" at the White House on Friday as he writes his "big, beautiful bill" into law 250 years to the day that the Declaration of Independence was signed, according to a Truth Social post he wrote ahead of the Des Moines rally.

Go deeper: Casting himself as a fighter, Trump aligns with UFC

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

President Trump met with the Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman at the White House on Thursday and discussed the situation with Iran and other regional issues, according to a source familiar with the meeting.

Why it matters: Saudi Arabia wants to de-escalate tension in the region after the 12-day war between Israel and Iran.

• The talks took place ahead of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Monday meeting with Trump at the White House.
• The Trump administration wants to push for a historic peace deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel in the coming months.

Details: After his meeting with Trump, the Saudi foreign minister spoke on the phone with Chief of Iran's General Staff of the Armed Forces, Maj. Gen. Abdolrahim Mousavi.

• "We discussed developments in the region and the efforts being made to maintain security and stability," wrote Bin Salman, who is a younger brother of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
• Bin Salman also met with White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
• The meeting between Trump and the Saudi defense minister was first reported by Fox News.
• The White House didn't immediately respond to Axios' request for comment on Thursday evening.

Driving the news: Witkoff plans to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oslo next week to restart nuclear talks, Axios reported on Thursday.

• Araghchi spoke with on the phone on Thursday with Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Eide and discussed the efforts to deescalate tensions in the region, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said.
• Trump told reporters on Thursday that Iran wants to speak with the U.S. and "it is time that they do."
• The president said the U.S. doesn't want to hurt Iran. "I know they want to meet and if it is necessary I will do it," he said.

Editor's note: This article has been updated to note that Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman met with White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Tariffs imposed by President Trump have generated tens of billions of dollars in revenue for the government — but the burden falls far from equally on different states.

The big picture: Who pays for tariffs is a long-settled issue — American businesses do, to the tune of billions of dollars, in places like California and Texas especially.

Driving the news: Economic research firm Trade Partnership Worldwide shared a new analysis with Axios showing the state-by-state cost of tariffs imposed by Trump from January through May.

• These are presidential tariffs — that is, tariffs imposed by Trump rather than Congress, mostly this term but some dating to his first term.

By the numbers: From January 1 to May 31 of this year, California faced a tariff impact of $11.3 billion, by far the highest in the country.

• Texas was a distant second at $6 billion, followed by Michigan at $3.3 billion.
• In total, in 17 states companies faced a total impact of at least $1 billion over the first five months of the year.
• At the other end, 11 states had a burden of less than $100 million, with the smallest hits to Wyoming and Alaska at just over $16 million each.

The intrigue: The burden crosses political boundaries, too — more than half of the most-impacted states voted for Trump in the last election.

The bottom line: Recent deals, like one with Vietnam, prove tariffs aren't going away anytime soon.

House Republicans' campaign arm is going on the offensive in the battle for public opinion over President Trump's "big, beautiful bill."

Why it matters: Democrats have hammered Republicans over the legislation's deep cuts to Medicaid, but the National Republican Congressional Committee thinks they have the winning message to expand their numbers in the 2026 midterms.

• Republicans plan to message their legislative victory by branding Democrats' opposition as voting to raise taxes on small businesses and American families, according to an internal memo first shared with Axios.
• "Every Democrat voted to hurt working families and to protect the status quo. ... House Republicans will be relentless in making this vote the defining issue of 2026," the memo says.

Yes, but: Republicans have their work cut out for them.

• Recent polls have shown that only 23%–38% of American adults and voters support the legislation.

Zoom in: The House-passed bill makes permanent Trump's 2017 tax cuts and adds additional tax benefits — no tax on tips or overtime and a temporary tax deduction for those 65 and older.

• The NRCC is highlighting a $1,700 tax cut for families of four in their messaging efforts.
• Trump is set to speak Thursday evening at the Iowa State Fairgrounds — an event that's part July 4 celebration and part "big, beautiful bill" victory lap.

State of play: The House narrowly passed the bill 218-214, and GOP members with an array of concerns have spent days publicly dunking on the measure.

• Rep. Keith Self (R-Texas) called the bill "morally and fiscally bankrupt" in a post on X.
• Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) said the bill makes "harmful cuts to Medicaid" and puts "critical funding at risk."
• Both ultimately voted in favor of the bill with no changes.

The other side: Democrats are already vowing to make the bill a centerpiece of their midterm strategy, too.

• "From now until November 2026, the DCCC will continue to communicate the harm this bill will cause," a memo from the House Democrats' campaign arm says. "Republicans will lose the majority in 2026 and the Big, Ugly Bill will be the reason why."

Zoom in: The NRCC is confident that work requirements in Medicaid and increased border security funding resonate with voters, and they plan to spotlight those provisions.

• The memo cites an internal GOP poll that found 72% of voters support work requirements, and 86% support removing deceased or ineligible recipients from Medicaid.

The bottom line: Republicans still have a highly skeptical public to convince.

• Republicans are aware polling as a whole isn't pretty, Axios' Stef Kight reports, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) predicted last week that those numbers would improve after the final bill is passed.

Editor's note: This story is corrected to state that the bill will give a temporary tax deduction for those 65 and older (not eliminate a tax on Social Security).

President Trump said on Thursday he made no progress in his call with Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding the war in Ukraine.

Why it matters: The call took place amid a stalemate in Trump's efforts to end the war between Russia and Ukraine and two days after the U.S. paused weapons shipments to the Ukrainian Army.

• Putin's foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov said the issue of U.S. weapons supply to Ukraine didn't come up during the call between Putin and Trump.
• Trump told reporters on Thursday before boarding Air Force One on his way to Iowa that the U.S. hasn't paused weapons supply to Ukraine, but "we have to make sure we have enough for ourselves."

Driving the news: Trump said he had a long call with Putin on Iran and Ukraine. According to the Kremlin, the call lasted more than an hour.

• Trump said he "is not happy" about the war in Ukraine and stressed he "didn't make any progress at all" on this issue in his call with Putin.

The other side: Ushakov told reporters that Putin and Trump had a "detailed discussion" about Iran and the situation in the Middle East.

• He added that Putin stressed that the Iranian issue must be settled only through diplomacy.
• Ushakov said Trump stressed during the call that he wants to end the war between Russia and Ukraine swiftly.
• Putin told Trump that Russia is not going to give up on its goals in Ukraine, Ushakov said, adding that Russia sees its peace talks with Ukraine as a bilateral issue that the U.S. shouldn't be actively involved in.

What's next: Ukrainian officials said President Volodymyr Zelensky is scheduled to speak with Trump on Friday to discuss the pause of the weapons shipments.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details about the phone call.

The EPA said Thursday it has placed 139 employees on leave after they signed a "declaration of dissent" accusing the agency of "unraveling" health and environmental protections for political reasons.

Why it matters: The letter and EPA pushback escalates internal and public disputes over the agency's deregulatory moves under President Trump.

Driving the news: "The Environmental Protection Agency has a zero-tolerance policy for career bureaucrats unlawfully undermining, sabotaging, and undercutting the administration's agenda as voted for by the great people of this country last November," an EPA spokesperson said.

• The agency said the employees are on leave pending investigation, noting that they used official titles and EPA positions. EPA also said the letter to Administrator Lee Zeldin contained misleading information.

Catch up quick: The communication from current and former EPA employees — organized in conjunction with the nonprofit "Stand Up for Science" — cites a "culture of fear" at the agency.

• It accuses EPA under Zeldin of "misinformation and overtly partisan rhetoric," citing examples like his criticisms of Biden-era grants as a "green slush fund" and praise of "beautiful, clean coal."
• It also says EPA is taking many actions that "contradict EPA's own scientific assessments" in areas like mercury and greenhouse gas emissions.
• Another section criticizes the unwinding of programs on "environmental justice" — efforts to address higher environmental burdens that poor people and communities of color often face.

The latest: As of Thursday afternoon, 620 people had signed the letter, per the group's website. Roughly 500 are current EPA employees, including both named and anonymous signers, Stand Up for Science founder and executive director Colette Delawalla told Axios.

• The group has now taken the names off the public-facing version of the letter, which she said was first sent internally to Zeldin on Monday morning and made public shortly afterward.
• She criticized the decision to place workers on leave.
• "In America, employees cannot email their bosses about concerns in their place of employment now. It's astounding," she said.

The other side: Zeldin and other Trump officials say Biden administration policies placed undue burdens on domestic energy producers and strayed from EPA's core functions.

• The administrator has talked up EPA's role in pursuing Trump's "energy dominance" agenda.
• EPA's proposals to vastly cut spending are part of a "back-to-basics" approach to environmental protection, the agency said in budget documents.

What we're watching: The NYT reports that Justin Chen, an official with the American Federation of Government Employees Council 238 that represents many EPA workers, said EPA's move was an "act of retaliation."

• He said the union would "protect our members to the full extent of the law."

A wildfire in California's San Luis Obispo County exploded in size Thursday, triggering evacuation orders and sending smoke plumes southeast into Santa Barbara and Ventura counties.

The big picture: The massive Madre Fire has surpassed January's destructive Los Angeles-area wildfires to become California's largest this year, as much of the state faces hot, dry conditions that raise wildfire risks ahead of the July Fourth holiday.

The Madre Fire erupted in size in California yesterday and last night, becoming the state's largest wildfire so far this year.

The fire has grown to 35,530 acres and is 5% contained. pic.twitter.com/AmzRhhJ7yo

— CIRA (@CIRA_CSU) July 3, 2025

• Officials warn that the smoke impacts of the blaze that's one of several wildfires burning in the state will be "far-reaching."

The latest: Officials in Orange County evacuated a high school and El Torito after the Tonner Fire ignited, per a City of Brea Facebook post.

By the numbers: The Madre Fire ignited near State Route 166 on Wednesday and had grown to 35,530 acres by Thursday lunchtime local time, per Cal Fire.

• The fire had swollen to 52,592 acres and was threatening 50 structures at 10% containment by the evening.

Threat level: Part of the highway was closed due to the fire, per a San Luis Obispo County Office of Emergency Services Facebook post.

• Evacuation orders and warnings were in effect for communities in San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties near the highway, as the blaze burned toward Carrizo Plain National Monument, a region some 125 miles northwest of LA that's known for its grasslands and spring wildflowers.
• Red flag warnings were in effect for California's eastern Lassen, Alpine and northern Mono counties due to gusty winds and low humidity. Parts of Utah and Nevada were also under red flag warnings, including Las Vegas.

Meanwhile, state fire officials are urging Californians not to use fireworks when celebrating the Fourth of July holiday.

• "Since 2024, fireworks have caused over $35 million in property damage across California and sparked 1,230 fires," per a Cal Fire Facebook post.

Between the lines: Research shows hot, dry and windy weather that helps wildfires spread is becoming more common across much of the U.S. amid climate change, per Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick.

Go deeper: Newsom says Trump "caved" after 150 California National Guard troops moved to wildfire duty

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security says it arrested Mexican boxer Julio César Chávez Jr., and he's being processed for expedited removal from the U.S. due to an active arrest warrant in Mexico.

Why it matters: Chávez is the son of Mexican boxing legend Julio César Chávez and just lost against Jake Paul by unanimous decision in a 10-round cruiserweight subpar bout this weekend.

The big picture: This appears to be the first time the Trump administration is seeking to remove a high-profile athlete from the country amid stepped-up immigration enforcement.

• And the detainment came a year before the U.S. serves as one of the countries hosting the World Cup, which is already drawing scrutiny from civil rights and labor groups over the U.S. government's immigration policies.

Driving the news: DHS posted on X on Thursday that it had detained Chávez and was placing him for fast-track removal.

• "This Sinaloa Cartel affiliate has an active arrest warrant in Mexico for his involvement in organized crime and trafficking firearms, ammunitions and explosives," the department posted.
• The department also alleged that Chávez was a "criminal illegal alien" and said he had previously been arrested in the U.S. on DUI and weapons charges.
• A district judge in 2023 also issued an arrest warrant for Chávez on charges related to organized crime.

Chávez's attorney, Michael Goldstein, told ESPN that the boxer was picked up by federal agents while riding a scooter near his home in Studio City, California.

• Goldstein didn't know where Chávez was being detained, but said they were due in court on Monday for his criminal charges.

Zoom in: DHS stated that Chávez entered the country legally in August 2023 with a B2 tourist visa, which was valid until February 2024.

• He then filed an application for Lawful Permanent Resident status in April 2024, the department said.
• "Chávez's application was based on his marriage to a U.S. citizen, who is connected to the Sinaloa Cartel through a prior relationship with the now-deceased son of the infamous cartel leader Joaquin 'El Chapo' Guzman," the department said.
• Axios could not independently verify the claim.

State of play: The Biden administration allowed Chávez to reenter the country in January and paroled him into the country at the San Ysidro port of entry, the Trump administration said.

• "Following multiple fraudulent statements on his application to become a Lawful Permanent Resident, he was determined to be in the country illegally and removable on June 27, 2025," the department said.

What they're saying: "It is shocking the previous administration flagged this criminal illegal alien as a public safety threat, but chose to not prioritize his removal and let him leave and COME BACK into our country," said DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said in a release.

• "Under President Trump, no one is above the law—including world-famous athletes."

Go deeper: Trump travel ban may hit MLB players from Cuba, Venezuela

The Big, Beautiful Bill, passed Thursday by Congress, dramatically increases funding for immigration enforcement in accordance with President Trump's policy priorities.

Why it matters: The funding will allow the Trump administration to approximately double immigrant detention capacity, significantly bolster immigration enforcement personnel and potentially exacerbate backlogs in the court system.

The big picture: The bill, which will go to Trump's desk by his July 4 goal, allocates more than $100 billion to ICE and border enforcement through September 2029.

• While the funding runs until 2029, federal departments are not required to spend the money evenly each year.
• The legislation makes ICE the largest federal law enforcement agency, per the Brennan Center.

Zoom out: The existing annual budget for ICE was about $8 billion.

Context: Trump's immigration enforcement policies have put ICE under financial strain.

• As of last month, ICE was $1 billion over budget, by one estimate, with more than three months left in the fiscal year.
• The funding crisis is exacerbated by Trump's demands that agents arrest 3,000 immigrants per day — an unprecedented, and still unreached, pace.

Read more about some of the bill's immigration funding allocations:

Border wall

$46.5 billion will go toward border wall expenses including construction, installation, improvement, access roads, cameras, lights and other detection technology.

• This is the bill's largest expenditure, per AP.

Zoom out: Border crossings earlier this year plunged to the lowest level in decades as Trump began implementing and broadcasting his immigration crackdown.

Detention capacity

$45 billion is for single adult detention and family residential centers.

• The detention standards will be under the discretion of the Secretary of Homeland Security, the bill says.

State of play: This could fund an increase in ICE detention to at least 116,000 beds, according to a July 1 report from the American Immigration Council said.

Personnel and facilities

$29.9 billion is set to fund hiring, training and retention of ICE officers, agents, investigators and support staff as well as ICE technology, transportation and fleet modernization.

$5 billion was apportioned for the lease, acquisition, construction, design or improvement of facilities and checkpoints owned or operated by Customs and Border Protection.

$4.1 billion will support hiring and training Border Patrol agents, Customs and Border Protection field support personnel, Air and Marine Agents and others.

• An additional $2 billion will go toward retention, hiring and performance bonuses.

Immigration court

$3.3 billion for hiring immigration judges, attorneys and support staff; combatting drug trafficking; prosecuting of immigration matters.

• Effective November 2028, the Executive Office for Immigration Review is limited to staffing 800 immigration judges and their support staff.
• Providing a small sum to immigration courts while increasing funding for immigration arrests and detention "will likely dramatically increase already high immigration court case backlogs particularly for people held in detention facilities," per the American Immigration Council.

Go deeper:

• Local officials grow wary of helping ICE detain immigrants
• Axios Explains: Inside ICE's superpowers

Editor's note: This story has been corrected to remove a chart with inaccurate data.

The House passed President Trump's "big, beautiful bill" Thursday, clearing the way for Trump to sign it by his July 4 deadline.

Why it matters: It's a massive victory for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who was able to flip dozens of members who had initially threatened to vote "no" — as well as for Trump and Senate Republicans.

• The bill passed 218-214. Reps. Thomas Massie (Ky.) and Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.) were the only Republicans to join all Democrats in voting against the measure.
• Moderates and conservatives demanded adjustments after the Senate made significant changes to the House version — but ultimately none were made.

The big picture: Several key holdouts flipped following meetings with the president at the White House, but a group of hardliners needed more persuading.

• Johnson and other leaders shuffled in and out of a room tucked off the House floor where House Freedom Caucus members camped out during negotiations.
• Trump "was directly engaged" throughout the evening in the ongoing effort to sway lawmakers, who "wanted to hear certain assurances from him about what's ahead, what the future will entail, and what we're going to do next," Johnson told reporters.
• The House narrowly approved its own version of the bill in May with the commitment from leadership that members would see improvements.

Zoom in: House GOP leadership had to hold open what was meant to be a five-minute procedural vote for hours Wednesday as they worked to whip the remaining "no" votes.

• They eventually set a new record for the longest House vote: seven hours and 24 minutes.
• Another vote to start debate on the bill was left open for nearly 6 hours.

Between the lines: The House floor again came to a standstill overnight while House leaders continued negotiations.

• A resolution setting the terms for floor debate on the reconciliation package was eventually adopted — at about 3:30am Thursday.
• In the end, Fitzpatrick was the only Republican to vote with all Democrats in opposition to the rule resolution.

The intrigue: And after GOP leaders finally secured the votes to pass the bill, Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) caused yet another delay.

• Perry had returned to Pennsylvania to get a "fresh change of clothes," according to Johnson.
• Conservatives demanded House leaders wait for him to return to Washington to cast his vote.
• Johnson said he even offered to loan Perry clothes, but Perry refused the offer.

Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) held the floor for close to nine hours Thursday to protest the proposal, setting a new record.

• But Democrats ultimately could only delay and not block the plan.

The details: The bill makes permanent Trump's 2017 tax cuts and adds additional tax benefits, including eliminating taxes on tips and overtime and giving a temporary tax deduction for those 65 and older.

• It makes significant changes to Medicaid, including imposing work requirements and reducing federal cost-sharing with states.
• It raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, and provides $175 billion for border security as well as $150 billion for defense.
• It temporarily raises the cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions to $40,000 before reverting to the current $10,000 cap after 5 years.

By the numbers: The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill would add roughly $3.3 trillion to the national debt over the next 10 years.

• The White House disputes the analysis, arguing it would instead decrease the deficit by over $5 trillion when combined with other growth efforts.
• CBO also estimates the changes to Medicaid would result in nearly 12 million fewer people with health insurance over the next decade.

What's next: Johnson is already eyeing another reconciliation package for later this year.

• "The plan is to do one in the fall for FY26 budget year, and we can also squeeze in a third one for FY27 before this Congress is up," Johnson said on Fox Tuesday.
• "Speaker Johnson has been really good about talking long-term, that this is not the only tool at the disposal of Congress," Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) told reporters.
• He added: "There are a number of other things that can be done legislatively in the months to come to more fully deliver conservative priorities."

Editor's note: This story is corrected to state that the bill will give a temporary tax deduction for those 65 and older (not eliminate a tax on Social Security).