OpenAI's chief global affairs officer Chris Lehane told Axios in an interview this week that it's time to accelerate AI policy for the Trump era two years after ChatGPT exploded onto the scene.

Why it matters: For top AI companies, the policy message has shifted from begging for regulation and warning of dangers to projecting confidence about the policies needed to keep growing and beat China in the AI race.

• "There's a real focus from the administration on developing an AI strategy to ensure U.S. economic competitiveness and national security are prioritized," Lehane said. "Our work stream is intersecting with where the administration is going."
• Lehane said he was at the White House last week and has had many meetings with Trump administration officials about AI policy, and he expects a full strategy to be released by the summer.

The big picture: The White House is collecting comments on what its national AI strategy should be in what is amounting to a total reset of policy from the Biden administration.

• Lehane says the U.S. view on AI is shifting as the industry grows more comfortable and ambitious with the technology.
• "Globally, the conversation around AI has changed," said Lehane. "There's been a definite pivot. ... Maybe the biggest risk here is actually missing out on the opportunity. There was a pretty significant vibe shift when people became more aware and educated on this technology and what it means."

OpenAI's memo to the White House, seen early by Axios, focuses on a number of key things the company deems necessary for the U.S. to lead on AI with democratic values and stay ahead of China:

• pre-emption of state AI laws;
• balanced rules around what advanced AI technology can be exported abroad;
• allowing AI to learn from copyrighted material;
• infrastructure investments for AI growth; and
• government adoption of AI.

State laws on AI assume "AI is like social media," Lehane said, while the company believes it is more like electricity, a key underpinning of systems people use every day.

• A voluntary structure housed at a re-imagined U.S. AI Safety Institute could test models as part of a public-private partnership in exchange for liability protection from dozens of state-level AI laws, which are creating uncertainty in the market, Lehane said.
• Export rules should be considered on a tiered basis to ensure there's a balance between protecting U.S. intellectual property and making sure it's in enough global markets, he said.
• OpenAI also hopes to see fair use copyright rules continuing to be applied to AI so models can be trained on as much information as possible, he said, calling copyright "a national security issue."

Flashback: In May 2023, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman appeared before Congress and asked for a heavy approach by Congress, including an AI licensing agency and independent audits.

The bottom line: For Lehane and OpenAI, fears about AI are dwindling, and the vibe shift is here to stay.

• "Companies like ours have gotten pretty comfortable with how we're deploying this stuff in a responsible way, and understand the real challenge here is to make sure this opportunity is realized."

President Trump's public intervention on behalf of Tesla marks the most extraordinary chapter yet in the partisan war over America's preeminent electric vehicle brand.

Why it matters: Elon Musk's assault on the federal government has supercharged Tesla's evolution from liberal status symbol to pride-of-MAGA protectorate. The company's stock has taken a beating along the way.

• "We struggle to think of anything analogous in the history of the automotive industry, in which a brand has lost so much value so quickly," says J.P. Morgan analyst Ryan Brinkman.

What's happening: Musk's efforts to fire thousands of federal workers and dismantle whole government agencies have sparked "Tesla Takedown" protests in at least 100 cities over the last month.

• Those protests spurred vandalism of vehicles and violent incidents at Tesla facilities — including the use of Molotov cocktails.
• Some current Tesla owners have embraced a quieter form of resistance by applying bumper stickers disavowing Musk's politics — or badges disguising the vehicle's branding.

Zoom in: With Tesla's stock hemorrhaging $800 billion in market cap since December, Trump held an event at the White House Tuesday to publicly rally support for his billionaire benefactor's brand.

• Standing alongside Musk and a row of Teslas on the South Lawn, Trump said he'd buy a Model S sedan for White House staff and threatened to classify anti-Tesla violence as domestic terrorism.
• Photographers captured a shot of Trump holding a Tesla sales script that listed out prices and features, a brazen challenge to ethical norms as the president said he hoped the event would boost Tesla sales.
• "He's built this great company, and he shouldn't be penalized because he's a patriot," Trump said.

Fox News favorite Sean Hannity boasted of buying one, too, and said he'd give a Tesla away on his website — an offer Trump was quick to share with his own social media followers.

Zoom out: "Tesla is becoming a political symbol of Trump and DOGE, and that is a bad thing for the brand," warned Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, a longtime Tesla bull.

• Through the first two months of 2025, Tesla sales are down 71% in Germany, 45% in Norway, 44% in France and 44% in Spain, according to registration data reported by Electrek.
• Sales have also been slumping in the critical markets of California and China, Bloomberg reported.
• The company does not report U.S. sales, but Tesla's U.S. registrations fell 11% in January, according to S&P Global Mobility.

Between the lines: The irony of MAGA's support for Tesla — whose existence is inextricably linked to the fight against climate change — is not lost on Republicans.

• In a 2022 analysis by Scarborough Research, Teslas were — by far — the car most likely to be associated with Democratic owners.
• Musk's brand is now poisonous among Democrats, and it's unclear whether his popularity with Republicans — or Trump's endorsement — will drive conservatives to buy Teslas in meaningful numbers.

The other side: Plenty of investors on Wall Street are still bullish on Tesla, and Musk has vowed to double production in the U.S. within two years as Trump pushes for a manufacturing renaissance.

• The company, amid Wall Street concerns about cash flow this quarter, has been offering a variety of incentives to juice sales, including 0% financing deals (as long as buyers put down a large down payment).
• "Car buying means something different to everyone and if the price is right, you can still get some consumers to put their personal feelings aside," Ivan Drury, an analyst at car-research site Edmunds, tells Axios.

The bottom line: Ives, the Tesla mega-bull, warns the next few months will bring a "moment of truth" for investors who want to see Musk recommit to the company — and decouple from DOGE.

• Musk's biggest ambitions for Tesla include self-driving cars and humanoid robots, with plans to launch a self-driving car network in Austin, Texas, later this year.
• Musk, who did not respond to an Axios request for comment, told investors in January that 2025 may end up as "the most important year in Tesla's history."

The number of migrants trying to travel through the dangerous jungles of the Darién Gap to get from Colombia into Panama has fallen dramatically in recent months to the lowest levels since the pandemic, new data show.

Why it matters: The decline is the latest sign that fewer migrants from South America are risking the treacherous, 2,600-mile journey north to the U.S. border in the early days of President Trump's immigration crackdown.

• The number of migrants illegally crossing the U.S. southern border plummeted in February to its lowest level in decades.

Zoom in: Only 408 migrants traveled northward through the Darién Gap in February, according to Migración Panama, an agency in Panama that keeps track of migration in the region.

• That's the fewest in a month since November 2020, when 365 traveled the path during the pandemic.
• Nearly 82,000 people traveled through the Darién Gap in August 2023, data collected by Migración Panama and reviewed by the human rights advocacy group Washington Office on Latin America found.
• The August 2023 surge led to a historic rise of migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border for weeks afterward.
• During the Biden administration, monthly traffic in the Darién Gap ranged from a few thousand to tens of thousands.

State of play: White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on Tuesday touted the drop in Darién Gap traffic as part of Trump's overall immigration enforcement.

• "The Trump administration is committed to delivering on President Trump's mandate from the American people to stop the invasion of migrants, secure our borders, and enforce our immigration laws," White House spokesperson Kush Desai told Axios.
• Trump border czar Tom Homan promised weeks before the president took office that he'd "shut down" the Darién Gap.

The big picture: The Darién Gap is a 60-mile, roadless, treacherous jungle of crocodiles, snakes, harsh terrain and drug gangs that human rights groups say exposes migrants to harm and disease.

• It's the only break in the Pan-American Highway, a 19,000-mile-long network of roads that runs from Alaska to the southern tip of Argentina.

Between the lines: No one knows precisely why migrant traffic along the U.S.-Mexico border and in the Darién Gap has fallen so much, but immigration experts tell Axios that it's likely because migrants and smuggling networks are waiting to see how Trump's enforcement actions play out.

• Boston College law professor Daniel Kanstroom tells Axios that Mexico is also intercepting more migrants, and many migrants aren't trying to go north because they don't know if they'll be able to apply for asylum in the U.S.
• "We've seen this for decades. It's just episodic. It'll go back up again, because the forces that move people north have not changed. It's a temporary low," Kanstroom said.

An Axios analysis of Darién Gap migration numbers found that most migrants traveling the route from 2020 through 2024 were from Venezuela, followed by those from Haiti and Ecuador.

• Experts say such migrants were escaping political unrest, gang violence, weather disasters caused by climate change and extreme poverty.

America's metros are growing faster than the country overall, driven largely by foreign immigration, per the U.S. Census Bureau.

Why it matters: An exodus of city-dwellers rocked many U.S. metros during the COVID-19 pandemic, but some are now clawing back residents (and their productivity, creativity, tax dollars, etc.)

Driving the news: The number of people living in U.S. metro areas rose by almost 3.2 million between 2023 and 2024, the Census Bureau said today — a gain of about 1.1%.

• By comparison, the total U.S. population rose by 1% during that time.
• Nearly 90% of U.S. metro areas grew from 2023 to 2024, the bureau says.

Zoom in: Some metros hit hardest by pandemic population loss — think New York; Washington, D.C. and San Francisco — grew between 2023 and 2024, though some are still down relative to 2020, as seen above.

Between the lines: Cities can thank international migration for this latest population spike.

• "All of the nation's 387 metro areas had positive net international migration between 2023 and 2024, and it accounted for nearly 2.7 million of the total population gain in metro areas," the bureau said in a statement accompanying the new data.

How it works: The bureau bases these estimates on current data for births, deaths and migration, all of which affect overall population.

What's next: Demographers and other researchers will be keeping a close eye on how Trump administration policies might affect immigration levels.

Tech evangelists predict the arrival of "superintelligence" any year now, but others doubt AI will ever produce its own Leonardos and Einsteins.

Driving the news: In a post on X Tuesday, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman touted the company's development of "a new model that is good at creative writing" and showed off its work — a thousand-word "metafictional" composition on "AI and grief."

Why it matters: Creativity could be the final hurdle for AI to leap in proving it's humanity's peer — but until then, many see it as the last bastion of humanity's irreplaceability.

The big picture: Whether telling stories or researching scientific breakthroughs, today's generative AI isn't very good at creative leaps and novel insights.

• It's bounded by what it "knows" — the data it is trained on — and how it "thinks," by guessing the next word or pixel that best fulfills its prompt.

In science, our AI models aren't going to push the boundaries because they're too eager to please people and prove their utility, Thomas Wolf, HuggingFace's co-founder and chief science officer, wrote on X last week.

• Wolf called AI that does research "yes-men on servers."
• "To create an Einstein in a data center, we don't just need a system that knows all the answers, but rather one that can ask questions nobody else has thought of or dared to ask," Wolf argued.
• The benchmarks we're using to gauge AI's advances "consist of very difficult questions — usually written by PhDs — but with clear, closed-end answers... Real scientific breakthroughs will come not from answering known questions, but from asking challenging new questions and questioning common conceptions and previous ideas."

Getting AI to produce compelling art looks even more unlikely.

• Most work produced by AI is literally derivative. Of course, most artists, especially at the start of their careers, learn by imitation, and many human artworks are effectively collages, rewrites or remixes.
• But memorable artists develop distinctive voices by mixing their own experiences and obsessions with whatever they've learned from the artists they admire — and even their collages "sound like them."
• People seek out art because hearing those voices inspires them, leaving them feeling connected with the artist in a way that they cherish.

The short story Altman posted showed formal facility — but many of the responses on X found it, as I did, more exercise than expression.

Between the lines: Plenty of artists will find AI a valuable creative tool or an aid to brainstorming, just as many researchers will employ it to speed their work.

• But creation is likely to remain hard work for human beings. It takes effort to wrestle a vague idea in your head into words, images or any other material for an audience to encounter.
• This is the sort of friction that AI visionaries sometimes promise to liberate us from.

Yes, but: "Friction-free art" is inert. What sends off sparks is the struggle of a person's urge to express something against the limits of form and medium.

The bottom line: LLMs are like youngsters who have read a lot but do not have experience of the world. And right now there's not much of a way for AIs to get it.

• An LLM has never felt sunlight on its arm or raindrops on its head, known a parent or a child, given birth or faced death.
• It doesn't feel the need to share such experiences or to shape them into works of writing, or music, or any other form.

What's next: Maybe the fusion of generative AI with robotics will surprise us, and an embodied LLM will find itself moving toward something humans might recognize as art.

• But it's very possible AI will never be truly creative because it has no impulse to play around for the heck of it, to impress peers or best rivals, or to leave a little mark on the world. People give AI prompts, whereas human artists get their prompts from their own lives.

The world's largest retailer is clashing with China over the company's efforts to reduce the impact of President Trump's increased tariffs.

Why it matters: Walmart — whose brand is inextricably linked to low prices — is trying to leverage its monumental size to mitigate its own costs from the billowing international trade war.

Driving the news: Officials from China's Ministry of Commerce met with Walmart executives on Tuesday to cry foul over the retailer pressuring local suppliers to absorb tariff hikes, according to a Chinese state media report.

• The Ministry of Commerce called for Chinese and American companies to work together in response to the tariffs.

Threat level: "If Walmart insists" ... "then what awaits Walmart is not just talk," state broadcaster China Central Television said on social media Wednesday, according to the WSJ.

Walmart did not respond to requests for comment.

• WSJ, citing people familiar with Tuesday's meeting, reported that the company offered to work with Chinese suppliers to "find ways to avoid damaging the interests of the parties involved."

Zoom out: Walmart's retail business in China is growing but was still less than 3% of the company's total sales in the 2024 fiscal year, according to an SEC filing.

• In that respect, the company has more to lose in the U.S. and other core markets if increased costs lead to price hikes.

Yes, but: Its exposure to Chinese supply lines is more substantial. Reuters has estimated that 60% of Walmart's shipments came from the country in 2023.

• Walmart has also made significant investments in its Chinese supply chain, having committed in 2019 to build or upgrade more than 10 logistics distribution centers in the country over the next 10 to 20 years.

Follow the money: "The retailer has historically had strong bargaining power over its Chinese suppliers and requests for lower prices have mostly been met," Bloomberg reported last week, citing people familiar with the matter. "But the scope of the recent requests are unusual and leaves manufacturers weighing whether to absorb the costs to maintain a longer-term business relationship."

💭 Nathan's thought bubble: Walmart is playing with fire but retains a degree of leverage because it's such an enormous buyer and because it can source more products from other countries if Chinese suppliers don't cooperate.

Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is now in the custody of the International Criminal Court following his arrest in Manila in connection with his deadly war on drugs during his presidency, the ICC confirmed Wednesday.

The big picture: The ICC Office of the Prosecutor alleged in a statement "there are reasonable grounds to believe that Mr Duterte bears criminal responsibility for the crime against humanity of murder" for the drugs crackdown.

• The ICC began its investigation in 2021 after thousands of people were killed in police drug operations in the Philippines.

Zoom in: Duterte is alleged to have committed the crimes from November 2011 through March 2019 "as part of a widespread and systematic attack directed against the civilian population," per the statement.

• The Office of the Prosecutor alleges that Duterte, as founder and head of the "Davao Death Squad," then mayor of Davao City and subsequently as the president of the Philippines, "is criminally responsible for the crime against humanity."
• The Office of the Prosecutor called the transfer of Duterte to the Netherlands, where he could face trial in the Hague, "a crucial step in our continuous work to ensure accountability for the victims of the most serious crimes under ICC jurisdiction."

What they're saying: Sara Duterte, the elder daughter of the former Philippines' and current vice president of the Southeast Asian nation, in a media statement called his being taken to the Hague following his arrest Tuesday "oppression and persecution."

What's next: The office is making preparations toward Duterte's initial appearance and subsequent judicial proceedings that will determine whether he stands trial.

Flashback: "I assume full responsibility," Duterte says of drug war

A Texas megachurch founder and former spiritual adviser to President Trump was indicted in Oklahoma Wednesday for alleged child sexual abuse crimes dating back to the 1980s.

The big picture: Robert Preston Morris, 63, who founded the Gateway Church in the Dallas suburb of Southlake, faces five counts of lewd or indecent acts with a child, according to the indictment.

Details: Morris is accused of committing the offenses on a girl from when she was 12 until she was 14.

• Prosecutors allege the offenses began in December 1982 when Morris was a traveling evangelist visiting the accuser's family in Hominy, Okla., and continued for the next four years, per a statement from the Oklahoma Attorney General's Office.
• An attorney for Morris, who resigned from his role as senior pastor last June following child molestation allegations, declined to comment to local media.

Zoom out: Morris founded the Gateway Church in 2000 and it now has an estimated 100,000 attendees.

• Trump appointed Morris to his evangelical advisory committee and named him as a spiritual adviser in 2016 when the Republican leader was a presidential candidate.
• Morris hosted Trump at Gateway Church during a 2020 roundtable event. A spokesperson for Trump emphasized to the New York Times after the allegations emerged last year that the pastor had no role in his re-election campaign.

What they're saying: "There can be no tolerance for those who sexually prey on children," said Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond in a statement. "This case is all the more despicable because the alleged perpetrator was a pastor who exploited his position.

• A Gateway Church spokesperson said in a media statement it's "aware of the actions being taken by the legal authorities in Oklahoma and are grateful for the work of the justice system in holding abusers accountable for their actions."
• It added the church was continuing to pray for Morris' accuser "and her family, for the members and staff of Gateway Church, and for all of those impacted by this terrible situation."

Go deeper: Southlake and Argyle churches seek new pastors

President Trump's tariffs that targeted Canada, Mexico and China before being expanded to all steel and aluminum imports have not only triggered trade wars, they're also leading to a "Boycott USA" global consumer backlash against U.S. goods.

The big picture: "Boycott USA" has spiked on Google in the past seven days, with four EU countries and Canada topping the search list and multiple countries have large Facebook groups dedicated to boycotting U.S. products.

Zoom in: One of the biggest regions for this pushback is Denmark, where Trump's talk of taking over its semi-autonomous territory Greenland has provoked anger.

• The Danish "Boycott goods from the U.S." Facebook page has nearly 73,000 members and Denmark had the second-highest search number of searches for "Boycott USA" this week after Luxembourg.
• In neighboring Sweden, the fourth-biggest "Boycott USA" search region on Google, a Facebook page that says using a U.S. platform is "the best weapon" in the drive against U.S. goods has nearly 80,000 members.
• France ranked at no.3 on Google for "Boycott USA" searches. The country's "BOYCOTT USA: Buy French and European!" Facebook page has more than 20,000 members.

Canada is another top backlash spot due to Trump making the closest ally of the U.S. a top tariff target and his desire to make the North American country the 51st state, ranking at no.5 on Google for "Boycott USA" searches.

• Several Facebook groups have emerged amid a drive for Canadian-made products and "Canada is not for sale" hats have taken off, with Ontario Premier Doug Ford among those wearing the headwear.
• Ford announced several measures against the tariffs, including canceling a $100-million contract with Musk's Starlink.
• The CEO of Jack Daniels' parent company said the Liquor Control Board of Ontario's decision to remove U.S.-made spirits from the province's shelves was "worse than a tariff."
• A survey of 3,310 respondents last month found 85% of Canadians plan to replace U.S. products or have already done so in the face of Trump's tariff threats. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.5 percentage points.
• The U.S. Travel Association warned of the impacts of tariffs, saying a 10% drop in Canadian travel could cause "$2.1 billion in lost spending and 14,000 job losses." The number of Canadians taking road trips to the U.S. fell 23% last month compared to the previous year, per Statistics Canada.

Zoom out: Analysts have expressed concern that Tesla's plummeting sales may be linked to CEO Elon Musk's closeness to Trump as a mega-donor and in his role as senior adviser to the president, working with the administration's federal cost-cutting team DOGE — though it's too early to assess whether this is having a direct impact on the EV company.

• Trump said on Truth Social this week "Radical Left Lunatics, as they often do, are trying to illegally and collusively boycott Tesla."
• There was a very public boycott in classic music, from German violinist Christian Tetzlaff — who told the New York Times he was canceling a spring tour of the U.S. in protest at Trump's policies. A White House spokesperson told the NYT in response: "America first."

Meanwhile, Norwegian fuel firm Haltbakk Bunkers said it would no longer be a supplier due to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's treatment at the White House.

• CEO Gunnar Gran told Norwegian newspaper VG the company's action was "symbolic" because it doesn't have a fixed contract with the Navy.
• Representatives for the White House did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening.

Go deeper: How Trump's tariffs will impact everyday Americans

Editor's note: This article has been updated with more details on Ontario's response and a screenshot of a post by provincial Premier Doug Ford.

President Trump is planning an unusual visit to the Justice Department on Friday to speak about his administration's plans on "restoring law and order," Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Trump's appearance will be the latest illustration of how he's taken a direct interest in the work of the DOJ, which he has stacked with allies while purging dozens of people who were deemed disloyal.

• Those dismissed from the department since Trump took office included officials who worked on the department's two criminal prosecutions of Trump between his presidencies.

Zoom out: Trump, who also had two state criminal indictments filed against him after leaving office, spent much of the 2024 campaign railing against what he called the "weaponization" of the justice system.

• After winning the 2024 election, Trump nominated Pam Bondi to be attorney general and Kash Patel to be FBI director, both of them longtime loyalists. Todd Blanche, one of Trump's personal attorneys, was named deputy attorney general.
• Trump last month said he had ordered the firings of U.S. attorneys appointed by his predecessor, Joe Biden. "We must 'clean house' IMMEDIATELY, and restore confidence. America's Golden Age must have a fair Justice System," Trump posted on Truth Social.

Most presidents historically have maintained at least the appearance of a Justice Department that operated independently of their political concerns.

• Trump accused Biden of using the DOJ to target him, but Biden said he made a point of not getting involved in Trump's felony cases. Biden didn't stop the department from prosecuting his son Hunter on gun and tax charges — but pardoned Hunter during the final weeks of his presidency.
• Trump has long been fixated on the DOJ. During his first term, he fired then-Attorney General Jeff Sessions, whom he blasted for recusing himself from overseeing a special counsel's probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election.
• During the final days of his term, Trump clashed with then-Attorney General Bill Barr after Barr said the department had found no evidence of significant fraud in the 2020 election.

Bondi and Patel are expected to be present for Trump's visit on Friday, according to a person familiar with the plans.

What they're saying: "President Trump will visit the Department of Justice to give remarks on restoring law and order, removing violent criminals from our communities, and ending the weaponization of justice against Americans for their political leanings," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told Axios in a statement.

• "President Trump's historic visit to the Department of Justice will signify another promise made and kept."

House Democrats are mounting a sudden push for a last-minute vote on an alternative to House Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-La.) bill to avert a federal government shutdown.

Why it matters: The effort dovetails with pressure some in the party are placing on key Senate Democrats to reject Johnson's 6-month stopgap bill and force Republicans to the table.

• The bill passed the House despite all but one House Democrat voting against it — but Republicans will need support from at least eight Senate Democrats for it to pass the upper chamber. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is already a "no" on the bill.
• "Our message to the Senate is ... stand with us," Rep. Katherine Clark (D-Mass.), the House minority whip, said at House Democrats' retreat on Wednesday.

Driving the news: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), Clark and Democratic caucus chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) said Wednesday in a joint statement they would "strongly support" a four-week stopgap bill.

• "House Republicans should get back to Washington immediately so that we can take up a short-term measure, pass it on a bipartisan basis and avoid a Trump-inspired government shutdown," they said.
• House Democrats have demanded that any longer-term spending measure include language that constrains DOGE's ability to cut congressionally authorized spending.

State of play: Senate Democrats left a closed-door meeting Wednesday signaling that they will not provide the votes for the bill to overcome the chamber's 60-vote filibuster threshold.

• Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) told reporters that Democrats are pressing for opportunities to amend the bill.
• "There are not the votes right now to pass it," he said.

What we're hearing: House Democrats have been advised to keep their schedules flexible in case they are called on short notice to vote on a replacement measure, multiple Democratic lawmakers told Axios.

• Said one person familiar with the matter: "Most House Democrats remain in the DC-area, and all have been advised to keep their schedules flexible so they can be present to vote on short notice."
• Many House Democrats are at their caucus' annual retreat in Leesburg, Virginia — roughly an hour drive to Capitol Hill.
• House Democrats' messaging arm is advising members to say on social media that they are willing to return to Capitol Hill this week to vote, according to guidance viewed by Axios.

Axios' Hans Nichols contributed reporting for this story.

The Trump Medicare innovation center plans to cancel a half dozen trials to change the way health providers are paid by the end of the year as it aligns itself with the goals of the Make America Healthy Again movement, multiple people familiar with the plans told Axios.

The big picture: Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation leadership said they want to focus on models that are likely to meet criteria for expansion and that promote the goals of HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s public health agenda, said a person with knowledge who was granted anonymity to speak freely.

What they're saying: CMMI "is committed to testing — and eventually scaling — innovative payment models that meet the statutory goals of reducing program spending while maintaining or improving quality of care," a CMS spokesperson said.

• The center has completed a data-driven review of models based on their statutory mandate and identified some that will conclude as scheduled and others that should be terminated, the spokesperson said.
• CMS estimated the changes will save taxpayers almost $750 million, though it did not specify how.

State of play: The innovation center will end two payment models focused on alternative ways to pay for primary care — Making Care Primary and Primary Care First — and an experiment to encourage at-home dialysis and kidney transplants known as End-Stage Renal Disease Treatment Choices.

• "Primary care remains a foundational component of the Center's strategy," CMMI wrote in a fact sheet on Wednesday.
• "The early termination ... does not signal a retreat from the center's support of primary care providers, but rather a need to focus on different approaches that are consistent with the CMS Innovation Center's statutory mandate and produce savings."
• CMMI will also end the Maryland Total Cost of Care Model one year early. The model builds on an alternative payment structure Maryland has used for over a decade now in which hospitals in the state get a fixed amount of revenue from payers each year.
• Maryland has already been chosen to participate in a broader total cost of care model known as AHEAD starting in 2026. CMMI plans to continue that model, a source familiar told Axios.

CMMI will also not continue with two projects that had been announced but not yet started. One would offer $2 generic drugs to Medicare beneficiaries. A second aimed to incentivize drug manufacturers to complete confirmatory trials of accelerated approval drugs.

• The center said Wednesday that it is also considering options to reduce the size or make other changes to a model aimed at integrating care for children.
• An experiment to redesign care delivery in Vermont and one aimed at improving care for pregnant and postpartum Medicaid beneficiaries with opioid use disorder are already slated to conclude at the end of 2025.

Between the lines: CMMI said in a fact sheet that it has determined its other models can continue, either as-is or with modifications.

Context: The innovation center was created through the Affordable Care Act to test different ways to provide and reimburse for health services. It runs limited-time pilots aimed at improving patient care and lowering costs, with a goal of adapting successful policies for Medicare and Medicaid as a whole.

• The center currently operates 23 models. CMMI gets $10 billion in mandatory funding each decade to develop, test and evaluate different experiments.

Some of the models set for cancellation have not yet shown to improve care or decrease costs.

• The model aimed at improving renal disease care has not affected health outcomes or Medicare spending, per its latest evaluation.
• Primary Care First, which tests performance-based payment for advanced primary care services, has had "minimal effects on hospitalizations and Medicare expenditures," according to its most recent evaluation, though the report says that's to be expected at the model's current stage.

Yes, but: The Maryland Total Cost of Care Model saved a net $689 million for Medicare in its first three years and reduced hospital admissions.

Reality check: It's common for a new administration to end or modify some Medicare payment projects early in its term.

• But the back-and-forth can make it hard for providers to fully invest in participating in these payment experiments.

What we're watching: The innovation center plans to announce a new strategy "based on guiding principles to make Americans healthier by preventing disease through evidence-based practices, empowering people with information to make better decisions, and driving choice and competition," the CMS spokesperson said.

President Trump is facing increasing headwinds from everyday Americans when it comes to his economic policies, which have sent markets tumbling and sparked worries of a recession.

Why it matters: Trump's re-election campaign hinged on lowering prices, but voters are beginning to notice his policies — from a trade war with the U.S.' closes trading partners to mass deportations — are expected to do the opposite.

The latest: A New CNN/SSRS poll out Wednesday found that only 45% of 1,206 Americans surveyed approved of Trump's job as president so far, with 54% disapproving. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points.

• Even more bruising, 56% of voters disapproved of Trump's handling of the economy — higher than at any point during his first term, per CNN.
• 61% of people surveyed said they disapproved of Trump's handling of tariffs, while 52% said they disapproved of his handling of the federal budget.

Zoom in: A new Emerson College poll of 1,000 registered voters out Tuesday found Trump's disapproval rating at 45%, two points higher than it was just a week before, when the same poll was conducted. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

• Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement that the poll results showed Trump's "initial 'honeymoon phase' seems to be coming to an end.'"
• Trump's "true challenge will be how voters perceive their financial future," he added, noting that voters who "disapprove of his handling of the economy, believe tariffs will hurt economic growth, and are skeptical of his cryptocurrency policy."

The big picture: The ramifications of Trump's policies are already rippling outwards and impacting businesses and communities.

• The National Federation of Independent Business's uncertainty index for small businesses rose to it's second-highest reading ever last month since the 1980s, and many small businesses report raising prices, MarketWatch reported.
• In fact, a slew of small business owners have spoken out about the detrimental impacts Trump's tariffs will have on their ability to maintain their businesses.
• Delta, Southwest and American airlines all warned this week that their first-quarter revenue or earnings forecasts will fall below expectations due to weaker consumer demand.

Our thought bubble, from Axios' Ben Berkowitz: Investors are beginning to realize the first-term "Trump put" — the notion that he'd change policy if markets reacted negatively — isn't in evidence this time around.

• There's a greater willingness by his team to let whatever happens happen, which is an adjustment to past Trump economic practice that's coming as a shock to some people.

Go deeper: The Trump bump becomes a Trump slump

February finally brought a bit of inflation relief following a stretch of elevated readings — a sign that the underlying backdrop for the economy is one of diminishing price pressures.

Why it matters: Disinflation returned in February after months of data that appeared to show progress had stalled. But that relief could be fleeting if widening trade wars reignite higher costs.

• This is the conundrum for keeping tabs on the Trump economy. Even quick-turn monthly data like the Consumer Price Index looks stale against a rapidly shifting policy backdrop.
• Still, further tariffs will happen with inflation on a downward trajectory — which beats the alternative.

State of play: The data "confirms that despite the idiosyncratic price bumpiness, economic fundamentals were and remain disinflationary," EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco wrote in a note.

• "Looking ahead, however, tariffs, confusion around trade policy and tighter immigration policy mean the risks to inflation are [tilted] to the upside."

By the numbers: The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% last month, after a 0.5% spike in January. Over the 12 months through February, CPI rose 2.8% — the lowest since November, when inflation data started to heat up.

• Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose at a similar monthly pace, with a 3.1% gain in the year ending in February. That was the lowest since the inflation shock took off nearly four years ago.

Between the lines: There was a sliver of good news for consumers in the supermarket. Grocery prices overall were flat last month, especially if you shop anywhere other than the egg aisle.

• Overall food at home prices were flat, and dairy, fruit, and vegetable prices were down.
• That was enough to offset another huge jump in egg prices, which were up 10% in February. Over the past year, prices are up 59%.

The big picture: The Federal Reserve wants proof that inflation is moving "sustainably" lower, as chair Jerome Powell said in a speech last week.

• Inflation remains too high for the Fed's comfort. Over the last three months, core inflation is up an annualized 3.6%, down a bit from 3.8% in January, but well above its 2% target.

What to watch: The Fed is assessing how White House policy uncertainty will ripple across the economy — including President Trump's stop-and-start tariff policies that have roiled the stock market and prompted economic growth fears.

• The Fed will likely keep rates on hold when its two-day policy meeting concludes next week.
• Bond yields spiked following the CPI data, and futures now put nearly 60% odds on a rate cut in June, per CME's FedWatch tool, up slightly from Tuesday. Odds of at least two rate cuts by year-end top 88%.

What they're saying: "[Wednesday's] CPI report shows inflation is declining and the economy is moving in the right direction under President Trump," said White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt in a statement.

About 1 in 15 U.S. adults has been on scene at a mass shooting, a new University of Colorado Boulder study published in JAMA Network Open reveals.

Why it matters: The study underscores the pervasiveness of gun violence in the U.S. and the increasing likelihood that everyday Americans could be caught in the crossfire.

The big picture: "Our findings lend credence to the idea of a 'mass shooting generation,'" senior author David Pyrooz said in a statement.

• "People who grew up in the aftermath of Columbine have these unique experiences that are really distinguishable from the older population," he said.

By the numbers: About 7% of 10,000 U.S. adults surveyed online in January 2024 said they had been present at a mass shooting — defined as an incident where four or more people were shot.

• 2% reported being injured, whether by gunfire, by shrapnel or in the chaos of people fleeing.
• Among those uninjured, about 75% said they suffered psychological distress.
• More than half of those who had witnessed a mass shooting said it happened within the last decade.

Between the lines: Gen Z and men were at the highest risk, the study found.

• And for most survivors, the violence hit close to home. More than three-fourths of mass shootings took place in their own communities.

Zoom in: Colorado has experienced at least 61 mass shootings in the last 10 years, killing 82 people and injuring 246, according to data on the state health department's website.

• In 2023 alone, there were 16 mass shootings in the state — the highest in at least a decade, according to the Gun Violence Archive.
• Data for 2024 is not readily available.

What they're saying: "It's not a question of if one will occur in your community anymore, but when," Pyrooz said. "We need to have stronger systems in place to care for people in the aftermath of this tragic violence."

The other side: Despite the grim reality, mass shootings actually declined nationwide last year — dropping nearly 25% from 2023.

• The U.S. reported 503 mass shootings in 2024, down from 659 the year before, per the Gun Violence Archive.
• The decrease could be attributable to the waning social and economic upheavals set off by the coronavirus pandemic, Giffords Law Center's research director Kelly Drane told Axios last year.

What we're watching: Colorado lawmakers are considering a controversial gun control bill that would restrict the sale of most semiautomatic firearms, like the one used by the Boulder King Soopers shooter in 2021.

• The legislation — sponsored by Sen. Tom Sullivan, a Centennial Democrat whose son was killed in the 2012 Aurora theater shooting — has been amended more than a dozen times, Colorado Politics reports.

Senate Democrats left a private meeting Wednesday saying there aren't enough votes to advance the short-term funding bill that passed the House on Tuesday.

Why it matters: This raises the chances of a government shutdown this weekend. Democrats are in the unusual position of being willing to risk a shutdown to negotiate a better deal with Republicans.

• "Democrats had nothing to do with this bill. And we want an opportunity to get an amendment vote or two. So that's what we are insisting on to vote for cloture," Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) told reporters after the meeting.
• "There are not the votes right now to pass it," Kaine said.
• Republicans will need at least eight Senate Dems to vote for the bill to move it forward, as 60 votes are needed to advance most Senate legislation.

Zoom in: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer spent weeks pushing his caucus to keep their powder dry on a shutdown. He privately counseled them that advocating for a shutdown was bad politics for Democrats.

• But he has also insisted that any legislation to keep the government open must be done in a bipartisan manner. The bill passed by the House on Tuesday was written exclusively by Republicans.
• Schumer is balancing his deep distaste for a shutdown against external pressure from the grassroots and Democratic voters to do more to stand up to President Trump.

President Trump's letter to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was delivered on Wednesday by a senior adviser to the President of the United Arab Emirates, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman told Axios.

Why it matters: Trump said on Thursday that he sent a letter to Khamenei the day before, proposing direct negotiations between the countries on a new nuclear deal.

• Iran said for several days that they haven't received such a letter.

Behind the scenes: According to a source familiar, Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff visited Abu Dhabi on Tuesday and met with Emirati President Mohammed Bin Zayed.

• The source said Witkoff gave the letter to the Emiratis so they could deliver it to the Iranians.
• An Emirati official declined to comment. The White House and the State Department didn't immediately respond to questions.

What they are saying: Emirati diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash met with Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi this afternoon, Iran Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ismail Baghaei said.

• Gargash carried the letter from Trump to Khamenei.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional information.

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) announced Wednesday that she won't seek reelection in 2026, further complicating Democrats' efforts to win back a majority.

Why it matters: Senate Democrats are already defending open seats in the battleground states of Michigan and Minnesota. Adding New Hampshire to the list makes reclaiming a majority an even tougher proposition.

• "Today, after careful consideration, I am announcing that I have made the difficult decision not to seek reelection to the Senate in 2026," Shaheen said in a video posted on X.

Editor's note: This is a breaking news story. Check back for updates.

CIA director John Ratcliffe spoke by phone Tuesday with the head of the Russian foreign intelligence agency (SVR) Sergey Naryshkin, a source familiar with the call confirmed to Axios.

Why it matters: This was the first call between the spy chiefs since President Trump assumed office. It came a day after Ukraine endorsed a U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire and U.S. officials said the onus was now on Russia.

• The source said the purpose of the call was to establish a line of communication between Ratcliffe and Naryshkin.
• It is also part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to engage with Russia and improve relations with Moscow.

The big picture: The call was one of several conversations between U.S. and Russian officials expected to take place over the next few days.

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. would brief Russia on Wednesday about the talks with the Ukrainians and the ceasefire proposal. "If they say 'no' it will tell us a lot," Rubio said.
• Rubio was speaking on a his flight to a G7 meeting in Canada from Saudi Arabia, where he and national security adviser Mike Waltz met with Ukrainian officials on Tuesday.
• Trump envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to visit Moscow on Thursday to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The other side: The Kremlin stressed on Wednesday it wants to hear directly from the U.S. before commenting on whether it agrees to the ceasefire.

• The Kremlin said it expects Rubio and Waltz to brief their Russian counterparts, and didn't rule out a Trump-Putin call.

The latest: Russian news agencies first reported on Wedneday's call between the spy chiefs, quoting a statement from the SVR.

• According to the statement, Naryshkin and Ratcliffe discussed cooperation between the two intelligence services "in areas of common interest and the resolution of crisis situations."
• The SVR said the two spy chiefs agreed "to maintain regular contacts...with the aim of helping to ensure international stability and security, as well as reducing confrontation in relations between Moscow and Washington."
• The CIA has not commented on the call.

State of play: The Trump administration restored arms shipments and intelligence sharing with Ukraine after Kyiv endorsed the ceasefire proposal.

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said on Wednesday he wants to use the 30-day ceasefire to draft a peace agreement.
• After weeks of pressuring Ukraine, U.S. officials now say the ball is now in Russia's court.

States are warning that huge headaches are on the way as a wave of fired federal workers try to file for unemployment insurance.

Why it matters: Tens of thousands of probationary workers were abruptly fired across multiple federal agencies, without severance. Many may struggle financially, with broader ripple effects on local economies.

• Unemployment insurance can be a lifeline.

Where it stands: State attorneys general laid out the situation in a lawsuit over the firings filed last week.

• Because the firings happened without any advance notice and in a "chaotic" manner, they're exacerbating strains on state unemployment systems, per the lawsuit.
• States are getting inundated with claims. Maryland now sees 30 to 60 new claims every day. In the first quarter of last year, the state received only 189 jobless claims for federal workers.
• The firings "impose a significant strain" on the Maryland department's resources, per the lawsuit. The effects will stretch beyond unemployment claims to other areas of state business, the lawsuit warns.

The big picture: State agencies are underfunded and underresourced, particularly at this moment when overall joblessness is low, says Michele Evermore, a senior fellow at the National Academy of Social Insurance, who worked on unemployment insurance in the Biden administration.

How it works: The unemployment process for federal workers works differently than the private sector, where employers pay into the system through a payroll tax.

• The federal government doesn't pay up until firings happen, and is then responsible for reimbursing states and providing agencies with verification on wages and other information, like the reason for "separation."
• Since agencies are giving different reasons for the firings — some citing performance and others restructuring — the unemployment investigators will have to look deeply into each claim, per the lawsuit. That will be a time-consuming process.

Between the lines: Ordinarily, when there are dismissals on a wide scale, they proceed in an orderly way, with advance notice given to states. That's not what happened here.

• Evermore said many state agencies aren't hearing back from federal agencies as they investigate claims: "This is where the real hold-up is."

For example: Jacob Bushno, a veteran in southern Illinois fired from his job at the U.S. Forest Service on Feb. 18, filed for unemployment right away.

• The state agency is still investigating his claim, with an interview set for Wednesday. The battle to get unemployment insurance, on top of the abrupt firing, has "been another struggle," Bushno tells Axios.

For the record: When asked for comment about the status of these workers, the White House did not address the specific situation. Instead deputy press secretary Harrison Fields said the president has a mandate to uproot "waste, fraud, and abuse."

• "The personal financial situation of every American is top of mind for the President, which is why he's working to cut regulations, reshore jobs, lower taxes, and make government more efficient."

What to watch: We're still at the beginning stages here. Observers expect unemployment claims to pick up in the coming weeks, but for now, some workers are waiting to see if they wind up getting their jobs back.