• A consulting firm found that tech companies are "strategically overpaying" recruits with AI experience.
• They found firms pay premiums of up to $200,000 for data scientists with machine learning skills.
• The report also tracked a rise in bonuses for lower-level software engineers and analysts.

The AI talent bidding war is heating up, and the data scientists and software engineers behind the tech are benefiting from being caught in the middle.

Many tech companies are "strategically overpaying" recruits with AI experience, shelling out premiums of up to $200,000 for some roles with machine learning skills, J. Thelander Consulting, a compensation data and consulting firm for the private capital market, found in a recent report.

The report, compiled from a compensation analysis of roles across 153 companies, showed that data scientists and analysts with machine learning skills tend to receive a higher premium than software engineers with the same skills. However, the consulting firm also tracked a rise in bonuses for lower-level software engineers and analysts.

The payouts are a big bet, especially among startups. About half of the surveyed companies paying premiums for employees with AI skills had no revenue in the past year, and a majority (71%) had no profit.

Smaller firms need to stand out and be competitive among Big Tech giants — a likely driver behind the pricey recruitment tactic, a spokesperson for the consulting firm told Business Insider.

But while the J. Thelander Consulting report focused on smaller firms, some Big Tech companies have also recently made headlines for their sky-high recruitment incentives.

Meta was in the spotlight last month after Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, said the social media giant had tried to poach his best employees with $100 million signing bonuses. 

While Business Insider previously reported that Altman later quipped that none of his "best people" had been enticed by the deal, Meta's chief technology officer, Andrew Bosworth, said in an interview with CNBC that Altman "neglected to mention that he's countering those offers."

• Elon Musk started a new political party after conducting a poll on his social media platform X.
• But this is not the first time Musk has outsourced his decision-making to social media.
• Musk had run polls on whether he should sell his Tesla stock or step down as X's CEO.

Elon Musk announced the formation of his new political party a day after conducting a poll on his social media platform, X.

But this isn't the first time Musk has outsourced his decision-making to social media.

The Tesla and SpaceX CEO has conducted several polls on X over the years. Musk has asked users whether he should sell his Tesla stock or if he should reinstate President Donald Trump to the platform.

Here's a list of some of the polls Musk has done, and what happened after.

Selling 10% of his Tesla stock

On November 7, 2021, Musk posted a poll on X asking his followers if he should sell 10% of his Tesla stock.

"I will abide by the results of this poll, whichever way it goes," Musk added.

Musk's poll received over 3.5 million votes, with over 57% of them supporting the sale of his stock. Then, on November 10, 2021, Tesla said in an SEC filing that Musk sold about $1.1 billion in Tesla stock.

In its filing, Tesla said the sale of Musk's shares was "automatically effected" as part of a trading plan that was adopted on September 14, 2021. It added that the trading plan was in relation to Musk exercising stock options that were set to expire in 2022.

Musk had talked about the planned sale during an interview he gave at the Code Conference in September 2021.

"I have a bunch of options that are expiring early next year, so a huge block of options will sell in Q4. Because I have to or they'll expire," he said.

Buying Twitter

Months before buying Twitter in late 2022, Musk conducted several polls on the platform, asking his followers about their views on it. These polls took place while Musk had been quietly purchasing the company's stock since the start of the year.

On Mach 25, 2022, Musk asked his followers if Twitter "rigorously adheres" to the principle of free speech.

"The consequences of this poll will be important. Please vote carefully," Musk added.

Musk's poll received over 2 million votes. Over 70% of them said the platform did not adhere to the principle.

"Given that Twitter serves as the de facto public town square, failing to adhere to free speech principles fundamentally undermines democracy. What should be done?" Musk wrote in a follow-up post on March 26, 2022.

"Is a new platform needed?" Musk added.

Earlier, Musk had conducted a separate poll asking his followers if Twitter's algorithm should be open source. That poll received over 1.1 million votes, and nearly 83% of them voted "Yes."

Then, on April 5, 2022, Musk asked his followers if they wanted an "edit button" on Twitter. The poll obtained over 4.4 million votes and nearly 74% of them voted "Yes."

Musk eventually acquired Twitter for $44 billion in October 2022 and renamed it X in July 2023.

Reinstating Trump's Twitter account

Shortly after buying Twitter, Musk polled his followers on whether Trump should be reinstated to the platform. Trump had been an avid user of the platform but was banned in January 2021 after the Capitol riot.

Musk's poll drew over 15 million votes, with nearly 52% supporting Trump's reinstatement.

"The people have spoken. Trump will be reinstated," Musk wrote on November 19, 2022, a day after he had conducted the poll.

"Vox Populi, Vox Dei," Musk continued, using a Latin phrase that translates to "the voice of the people is the voice of God."

Musk had talked about reinstating Trump even before his acquisition of Twitter was complete. In May 2022, Musk said in an interview with the Financial Times that would "reverse the permaban" on Trump, calling it a "morally bad decision" that was "foolish in the extreme."

Stepping down as Twitter's CEO

A month later, Musk conducted another poll, this time he asked his followers if he should step down as Twitter's CEO.

"I will abide by the results of this poll," Musk wrote on December 18, 2022.

Shortly after acquiring the platform, Musk laid off more than half of the company's employees. Musk's takeover also saw several celebrities such as Elton John opting to quit the platform over misinformation concerns.

Musk's poll received over 17.5 million votes, and nearly 58% voted "Yes."

"I will resign as CEO as soon as I find someone foolish enough to take the job! After that, I will just run the software & servers teams," Musk wrote in a follow-up post on December 20, 2022.

In May 2023, Musk announced that he had hired Linda Yaccarino, an executive at NBCUniversal as X's new CEO. Musk said Yaccarino would "focus primarily on business operations" while he dealt with "product design and new technology."

Starting a new political party

Musk's most recent poll took place on July 4, when he asked his followers if they wanted him to start a new political party. Musk had floated the idea of starting the America Party after criticizing Trump and the GOP for the "One Big Beautiful Bill."

The poll received over 1.2 million votes, and over 65% of them voted "Yes."

"By a factor of 2 to 1, you want a new political party and you shall have it!" Musk wrote on X a day later.

"When it comes to bankrupting our country with waste & graft, we live in a one-party system, not a democracy. Today, the America Party is formed to give you back your freedom," he added.

Musk did not respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

• Shannon Liu Shair and her husband started saving for college for their children when they were born.
• She puts money into 529 plans and custodial Roth IRAs for both of them.
• The 529 plans have around $100,000 each, and she plans to grow them to $200,000 by college time.

This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Shannon Liu Shair, a 38-year-old estate planning attorney in the San Francisco Bay Area, California. It has been edited for length and clarity.

As an estate planning attorney at Liu Shair Law, I work with families to plan for the future and establish their legacy. Many of my clients have children, and their primary goal is to ensure their children are provided for through college and beyond.

In addition to understanding each client's goals, I ask how they've already invested and saved for their family. This is something that's deeply personal for me, too, as my husband and I have faced the same questions.

These conversations in my work and my own life have given me a unique perspective on how to get started and stay committed. It helps my clients to have someone they can trust with their sensitive information who also "gets it."

Saving and investing for our kids was not instant or overnight; it's taken years of learning and contributing. First, we had to make sure our own retirement and savings were healthily funded.

Here's how I set up my kids for financial success.

I started 529s for each of my two kids when they were born

529s are special accounts that allow you to save tax-free for education expenses. My parents did the same for me before I was college-age. Not needing to worry about finances, loans, and tuition made it much easier for me to focus on my studies.

We set up these accounts because we want our kids to have flexibility. I want them to be able to comfortably search for their ideal job fit since they already have a savings cushion.

My husband and I have saved over $100,000 in each of their 529s. I fund their accounts so that they'll be similarly situated based on the year they attend college.

Every state has its own 529 providers. I decided to use California's plan, Scholar Share, because it was easy to set up. I want to save 100% of what is expected for a public university in California. The target goal for each of the 529s is $200,000.

We don't have a specific backup plan for the money if one of the kids doesn't attend college, but up to $35,000 can be diverted to a Roth IRA. Additionally, the funds can still be withdrawn (with a penalty on earnings), which is not an issue for us.

We could also change the beneficiary to a different family member (e.g., hypothetical grandchild). I'd rather be over-prepared financially than under-prepared and have to scramble to figure things out.

I also set up custodial Roth IRAs for them

Custodial Roth IRAs are retirement accounts in which a child can deposit earnings from a job while they're minors, allowing them to start their retirement savings early. I've saved five figures in each of their custodial Roth IRAs.

For business owners, there are ways to employ your kids to set up a Roth IRA legally. Now that my kids are 10 and 8, they've been able to help me with shredding paperwork and other small tasks. They know that they're earning money for the work that they contribute to my business.

Anyone can set up a 529 for their loved ones, but custodial Roth IRAs are only available if a child has earned income. If someone is not a business owner and their child is old enough, the child can work and still have a custodial Roth IRA. The work can be with an established business, or even helping others in the community with babysitting and other chores.

They also have their own bank accounts

Their UTMA bank accounts are kept leaner, in the hundreds of dollars. UTMA bank accounts hold money that your child owns, and an adult is the custodian until the child becomes an adult. A portion of birthday money or gifts goes into the UTMA account.

Birthday and Christmas gifts in cash are typically from grandparents or other family members. Because these gifts are not earned income, the "save" goes to UTMA accounts and not to their Roth IRAs.

I don't have a set savings strategy. I add funds when I have more money in my account.

There are 2 things I could've done differently

I could do better at automating a monthly amount to ensure consistency and streamline the process.

Another thing I could've done differently is deeper research into 529 providers. I'm OK with our California provider, but researching more couldn't hurt. 529s can have differences, such as the types of investments available, the funds set up, the minimum amount required to get started, or the maintenance fees.

I tell my clients it's a good idea to teach financial acumen at a young age so their children don't spend their savings inappropriately. Our kids know how much is in their retirement accounts because I want them to learn cause and effect.

They used to get annoyed about helping me with the administrative tasks, but since I've educated them, they understand these funds will help alleviate stress when they enter the job market.

My advice to parents is to see this as a long game

There will be dips, and people need to understand the time value of money and compounding. If they move things around or make big shifts every time there's a decline in the market, it could be counterproductive and go against their goals.

For 529s, I've taken a more passive approach and use age-based funds (enrollment-year portfolios) rather than risk-based portfolios or guaranteed investment options. I have not changed the fund allocations during market shifts.

If you're just getting started or aren't in a position to make big contributions, saving even a few dollars a week or a month is better than nothing. It makes a difference. It's especially helpful if your children are young and time is on your side.

• Hollywood companies continue to integrate AI, even as they challenge its applications in court.
• AI startups like Toonstar and Chronicle Studios are innovating in animation.
• Studios are using the tech to promote content discovery and reduce production costs.

Hollywood giants are pushing back on AI's encroachment. Disney and Universal recently sued Midjourney, accusing it of using tech to rip off their famous characters.

But inside entertainment companies, it's a whole different story. The biggest studios and filmmakers are using AI technology in various ways — and people in Hollywood are taking note. The AI on the Lot conference in May has doubled its attendance to 1,200 over three years, while AI editing company Runway attracted some 1,000 people to its third film festival.

The tantalizing promise of AI is that it could solve big problems in the entertainment business, like content discovery and high production costs.

"No matter how you feel about AI tools in the media and entertainment business, they're here to stay," said Peter Csathy, who advises media companies.

Investors are climbing on board companies like Ecco, an AI startup that helps people find titles across multiple streamers using queries like "find me all the shows about F1." It has raised $7 million from Ben Silverman, Shaquille O'Neal, and others.

One such investor is Ishan Sinha, a consumer partner at Point72 Ventures. He said the hype around AI-generated video hasn't translated into consumer interest. He sees the most potential in companies that use AI to promote distribution through personalization, translation, and IP ownership.

"We believe the winning consumer businesses aggregate eyeballs — they have some type of a hook, whether it's content aggregation, playlists, proprietary IP, etc., that acquires and retains users," he said.

Point72 Ventures' investments include GlobalComix, which uses AI to bring recommendations and language translation to comic book and manga readers that they couldn't otherwise find, and Cheehoo, which is working with studios to simplify animation.

The firm also invested in Chronicle Studios, which aims to help animators grow their audiences and monetize their projects beyond YouTube.

Here are some AI companies transforming different areas of Hollywood, and the pitch decks some of them used to raise funding.

Faster, cheaper animation

AI may still be a long way from making full-length movies, but it's quickly making inroads in animation. Toonstar, a startup behind "StEvEn & Parker," uses AI for tasks ranging from developing storylines to creating images and says it can make episodes at a fraction of the cost of conventional methods.

Chronicle Studios is a startup cofounded by Chris deFaria, a former animation president at Warner Bros. and Comcast's DreamWorks, that's using AI to help creators level up, with a focus on animators. Others chasing the animation or independent creator opportunity are Further Adventures, a new studio that's investing in digital creators and independent filmmakers; Invisible Universe, an animation studio backed by Seven Seven Six; and Promise, an AI studio backed by Peter Chernin's North Road, Andreessen Horowitz, and Google.

"AI can't really make stories that are enduring," deFaria told BI. "The biggest pain point is getting an audience."

Read more:

• A former DreamWorks president just raised $11.6 million to build franchises using AI
• Read the pitch deck for a Toonstar NFT animated series backed by Mila Kunis

AI is transforming special effects

Other companies, such as Runway, which has raised $545 million from General Atlantic and others, and Connect Ventures-backed Deep Voodoo, are using AI to provide tools for de-aging and other special effects work.

Some have entered the rollup stage. Metaphysic, which was known for de-aging Tom Hanks and Robin Wright for the Robert Zemeckis film "Here," was acquired in February by DNEG Group's AI company Brahma. Papercup's voice-cloning IP was acquired in June by RWS, a content solutions company, while its team was acquired by Scale AI.

AI is also being applied to speed the dubbing process, recreate the voices of bygone actors, and restore old films and TV series. With streamers going global, there's a big demand to translate titles for new markets, and new approaches to AI promise to eliminate awkward dubbing of the past.

Runway made news this past year for deals with Lionsgate to train an AI model on its library and with AMC Networks, which will use its tools to generate promotional material for its shows.

One player, Deepdub, which uses AI to dub movies and shows, just extended its tech to real-time dubbing of live sports commentary, esports shoutcasting, and breaking news coverage.

"For the first time, broadcasters can deliver real-time, multilingual dubbing that captures not just words, but the energy, urgency, and authenticity of live content," said Ofir Krakowski, the company's CEO.

Read more:

• Read the pitch deck from Metaphysic, an AI startup behind a viral Tom Cruise deepfake
• How AI Startup Runway aims to simplify video editing and filmmaking
• Here's the pitch deck AI startup Papercup used to raise $20 million to help media go global

Startups are tackling different phases of production

A third area where AI startups have been active in Hollywood is in the content creation process more broadly.

This can involve everything from AI in the script reading phase to scouring video libraries to generate new ideas for titles based on what's performed well in the past.

One, Paris-based Moments Lab, recently raised a $24 million round from backers including Oxx and Orange Ventures to expand its AI tools that are used by Warner Bros. Discovery, Hearst, and others.

Moments can make clips for social media seven times faster than the conventional approach, cofounder Phil Petitpont recently told BI, citing internal research. He said media companies would be able to use AI to help make full-length documentaries based on their video libraries in several months, while predictive modeling tools that can suggest audience-boosting changes are a year away.

"We're not very far from that because audience data is very easily available on YouTube," he said.

Read more:

• This startup raised $24 million to help Hollywood use AI to save time and money. Read its pitch deck.
• A new AI product being tested by top YouTubers like MrBeast scans a creator's catalog to give them fresh video ideas
• The pitch deck Strada, an AI startup to streamline content creation, used to raise $2 million
• Here's the pitch deck Filmustage, an AI startup focused on streamlining pre-production, used to raise $1.5 million

• Tech is hiring again, but the roles and skills in demand look different this time around.
• Atli Thorkelsson, head of network at Redpoint Ventures, put together a slide deck on hiring trends.
• The top of the market is "the most competitive it's been in years," Thorkelsson said.

The tech industry is now split between two starkly different job markets.

On one side, there's a stalled job market where more workers are staying put. On the other there is a rapidly expanding artificial intelligence sector that's reshaping the talent landscape.

To help founders understand the situation, Atli Thorkelsson, head of talent network at Redpoint Ventures, created a slide deck on the state of tech hiring. He presented it at the firm's third annual InfraRed Summit, which brings together founders of up-and-coming companies in cloud infrastructure.

The deck includes data cobbled together from Pave, a compensation management tool; TrueUp, a tech jobs marketplace; and SignalFire, an early-stage venture capital firm.

Thorkelsson notes that the charts throughout the deck represent fast-growing tech firms. Since Redpoint used data from vendors that mainly serve tech clients with open roles, those companies end up overrepresented.

Here's an exclusive look at the 13-slide deck that Redpoint shared with founders.

Tech is hiring again, but the roles and skills in demand look different this time around.

The top of the market is "the most competitive it's been in years," Thorkelsson said.

Throkelsson said more employees are staying put in a tougher job market.

Retention is key. An analysis of pay data suggests companies are burning more equity and cash to keep people happy.

The companies that are hiring are hiring across the board.

The bulk of new hires have gone to AI companies.

Entry-level hiring is on the decline. An efficiency drive means leaner teams packed with battle-tested veterans.

AI companies tilt toward technical talent more than their peers at the same stage.

Premium talent is landing at AI firms, and with that comes premium paychecks.

Machine learning engineers are pulling in more cash and equity than their software engineering counterparts.

Red lines show individual contributors; white lines indicate managers.

Interviews are getting more AI-focused. Candidates are being asked about their AI skills far more often than a year ago.

In recent years, some HR teams toyed with shorter or front-loaded vesting schedules. Now, most are reverting to the standard linear vest, sticking with what candidates already understand, Thorkelsson said.

San Francisco still leads for AI jobs, but New York City is gaining ground as a tech hub.

• Perplexity AI is cautiously growing its ad business.
• Its main ad product is 'sponsored follow-up questions,' and it recently introduced a perks program.
• Perplexity has a revenue share program with publishers, but its ads business is still nascent.

Perplexity AI is taking a softly, softly approach to building its ad business.

The AI company had a low-key presence at last month's Cannes Lions ad festival in France. Amid the huge multimillion-dollar beach structures erected by tech giants like Meta, Amazon, and Google, Perplexity sent just a handful of executives to meet with current and potential business partners.

Perplexity, a conversational AI-powered search engine, began testing ads last year. Brands such as Whole Foods and Indeed have bought "sponsored follow-up questions," which appear alongside an answer to a user's prompt, encouraging them to dig deeper into the topic. Advertisers themselves don't write or edit the sponsored questions, which are generated by Perplexity's AI.

It's a contrast to traditional search engine marketing, where ads typically appear before the organic results.

Speaking to Business Insider at Cannes Lions in June, Ryan Foutty, Perplexity's VP of business development, said the company is still figuring out which advertising model will work best.

He described sponsored follow-up questions as "a really incredible brand advertorial."

"It's additive because you're helping users figure out the next question they need to ask to make a better decision or figure out what they're trying to do versus just trying to put something in your face," Foutty said, adding that 40% of its users click on related questions.

Perplexity advertisers pay on a CPM, or cost to reach a thousand impressions, model. A Perplexity spokesperson said advertising currently comprises less than a tenth of a percent of the company's total revenue, and declined to comment on the company's current ad prices.

In recent weeks, Perplexity has also introduced a perks program, where it provides subscribers to its Perplexity Pro service with offers and discounts from brands including Turbotax, the smart ring company Oura, and hotel booking service Selfbook.

Both Perplexity ads and perks are only active in the US. Foutty said the company was also considering more ways to monetize Perplexity's shopping and travel booking features, which could theoretically include further ad formats.

"It's very manual today," Foutty said, "But when we find something that works for everyone, then it's very easy, naturally, for us to scale it."

Perplexity hasn't released its user numbers, but its CEO, Aravind Srinivas, said the company received 780 million queries in May, up 20% from April. But compare that to Google's AI Overviews, which the search giant said reached 1.5 billion monthly users in May. Google recently brought advertising to more areas of its AI Overviews product, and it's testing ads within its AI Mode, a newer feature where users can conduct deeper research.

With its relatively small scale and only one specific ad format available, Perplexity's advertising offering is only getting tepid interest from marketers for now, said Eric Hoover, director of search engine optimization at the digital marketing agency Jellyfish.

"I don't see strong adoption by users," Hoover told BI. "People rarely click out of 'regular' AI results; I don't see them being eager to click on sponsored ones."

Perplexity wants to build 'long-term incentive' deals with publishers

Perplexity shares a portion of its ad revenue with the publisher partners it uses to help source its answers, which include Time, Fortune, and Der Spiegel.

The company doesn't cut up-front licensing deals with these publishers because it isn't building foundational large language models that require content for training, Foutty said. It does offer these partners access to its enterprise product and APIs that can help publishers embed Perplexity's tech, like conversational search, into their own sites. (Disclosure: Business Insider's parent company, Axel Springer, has a multi-year content licensing deal with Perplexity rival OpenAI.)

"The model that we're creating on the revenue share side is a long-term incentive," Foutty said. "It's not a one-and-done."

When asked whether any publishers were making serious money from the program, Foutty said it was still early days. The publisher program launched in June of last year.

"We're focused on building the right product before we scale it to everyone," he added.

The relationship between AI companies and publishers can often be fraught, and many are locked in legal battles. Rupert Murdoch's Dow Jones and the New York Post filed a lawsuit last year alleging that Perplexity engaged in copyright infringement by scraping and using their content. Perplexity said last year that the facts alleged in the complaint were "misleading at best" and that it planned to defend itself.

This week, the content delivery network and security provider Cloudflare announced it has begun automatically blocking AI crawlers from scraping the websites it powers unless site owners explicitly opt-in or the AI companies pay.

• Lucia Soares is helming Carlyle's AI transformation after years of bringing tech to big companies.
• She spoke to BI about the firm's AI rollout and how it's already resulting in cost savings.
• She also spoke about life as a bicoastal executive and what she learned from her immigrant parents.

Lucia Soares had been working for Carlyle for four years when the private equity giant's CEO called to ask if she would take on a new role.

"I originally focused on using tech to create portfolio value," she told Business Insider, referring to the companies Carlyle controls. "Then, two years ago, our new CEO called me and said, 'Can you please do what you're doing for our portfolio companies but for our own company internally?'

Now, Soares — as Carlyle's chief information officer and head of technology transformation — is taking on a new challenge: Bringing artificial intelligence to the investment giant's 2,300 global employees.

She spoke with Business Insider about the rollout, including the successes, the pitfalls, and how the company is implementing checks and balances. She explained where the company is already seeing cost savings, for example.

She also walked us through her life as a bicoastal tech executive — and how she learned to hustle from a young age, helping her immigrant parents sell plants at the flea market on weekends. The interview has been edited for length and clarity.

What are your tech goals for Carlyle?

In my 27 years in technology, I've learned that you can't start with technology itself as the goal. People said that e-commerce is the goal, or that digital is the goal. Now, they say AI is the goal. And actually it's not.

Instead, we start with our business goals: we want to grow, create efficiencies, and build a strong tech foundation. AI and other technologies are levers to achieve these goals.

Tell us about Carlyle's AI rollout.

Increasing our employees' AI fluency is a strategic priority. They get AI training from the day they start at Carlyle, and are introduced to a wide range of tools they can use.

Now, 90% of our employees use tools like ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Copilot. We also have an AI champions' council where early adopters can play around with tools and eventually share best practices.

We're using AI to transform our workflows through Project Catalyst, which automates processes. We're also developing custom tools that leverage proprietary data to deliver insights instantly—saving investors from sifting through endless materials. Today, Carlyle's credit investors can assess a company in hours using generative AI, instead of spending weeks on research.

How is AI impacting the average worker at Carlyle? Are they required to use the technology?

It depends. Some business leaders have made it a requirement to put all investment committee memos in an AI tool for them to review. Others are not so direct about it, but everybody is seeing how it can make their jobs easier and challenging their teams in meetings to talk about the value they are deriving from AI tools.

As a firm, we have a return-on-investment strategy, and my team aims to deliver a certain amount of ROI every year.

We're not eliminating people's jobs, but we believe that it can help reduce dependency on outside services costs. For example, we can use AI to review legal invoices and catch errors that will reduce our costs. We've seen real savings as a result.

How do you balance autonomy with the risks of adoption?

I think a lot about that. I worry about kids in school using a tool to write an essay and not being able to think. But you have to wonder how people felt when the calculator came out, and if they thought no one would ever be able to do math on their own again.

We never allow AI to make a final decision. There's always a human in the loop, and someone needs to be accountable for the final results.

For example, when employees use AI to write a report, we have employees write a final paragraph summarizing the output to ensure they're thinking critically about it.

Can you give examples of success and failure in Carlyle's tech transformation?

Let's start with success.

When investors invest with us, we can at times receive up to 80-page documents with questions about everything from our employees to cybersecurity training. It's very manual.

We had one team decide they'd try to use AI to make investor diligence easier. Despite having just one technologist, this team found a solution to automate the process, which we're launching later this year.

We seek to empower people to solve things themselves, with embedded technologists across the organization.

We experienced more challenges dealing with regulatory restrictions on large language models globally. We learned the hard way that these regulatory hurdles require a lot of evaluation. We're launching solutions, but it's taking longer than expected to deploy.

You might think you can go fast with AI, but it doesn't always work that way, especially in today's global climate.

Has any single piece of career advice stuck with you over the years, and what is it?

Early on, I was advised to always raise my hand for the extra hard assignments. In other words, take a risk and bet on yourself.

My parents are immigrants, and I learned work ethic, courage, and audacity from them. But when I entered the workforce, I had impostor syndrome. With blue-collar parents, the office environment was completely different for me.

By taking on difficult assignments, I created relationships and visibility and was able to learn and grow more.

Tell me about your parents.

They are from the Azores Islands in Portugal. They came to the US during the dictatorship years. My dad only went to school up until the age of 10, because his family could not afford to pay for more education. He can add, subtract, and multiply, but was never taught how to divide.

He came to the US after serving in the Portuguese Army to give his family a better future. He knew no English.

He became a custodian, cleaning schools, and had a side hustle selling house plants at a flea market on the weekends. We all helped cultivate and sell the plants. I learned a lot from my parents.

What does your morning routine look like?

I am bicoastal: I spend one week a month in DC and also time in New York, but I live on the West Coast and work out of our Menlo Park office.

On the East coast, I might start my day — work permitting — listening to news podcasts, going for a run, meditating, and eating a healthy breakfast.

At home, I start really early in the morning. I don't always get that workout in, but I start with some early calls, and then take a break to drive my daughter to school before heading to the office.

When I get to my desk, I write down the day's priorities. I've done this my whole career, and try not to let constant fire drills overtake those priorities. When you're driving transformation, you have to keep strategy at the forefront.

What are the most important meetings of your week?

The most important meetings are the unplanned ones. For example, I run into a coworker, and we start talking about our kids. Then they bring up a company we should partner with. Or I run into an administrative assistant, and they show me new ways they're using Copilot. I get inspired by solving problems with people in real time.

The second most important meetings are the ones where we drive strategy and brainstorm. As technologists, you can fall into the Dilbert category of employees, where you just work through problem resolutions. So I force strategy onto the calendar to ensure we think big and ambitiously about tech transformation.

• Hinge Health and Omada Health sparked fresh hope for digital health IPOs after their strong debuts.
• Some top startups are now preparing for IPOs in 2026 as market uncertainties remain.
• These are the 9 digital health startups that could knock on the IPO door next.

After a long drought, digital health is finally seeing signs of life in the public markets.

In May, physical therapy startup Hinge Health became the first digital health startup to go public in years. Two weeks later, diabetes-focused Omada Health followed with its own IPO.

Both Hinge and Omada saw their shares jump on debut, signaling that investors might be warming up to new digital health public listings. That's welcome news for the late-stage healthcare startups that have been stuck in IPO limbo since the last window slammed shut in 2022.

To get a better sense of which digital health startups might go public next, Business Insider spoke with half a dozen bankers and investors. Those people requested anonymity to speak freely about potential IPO candidates.

The reopening appears more like a crack than a floodgate. Bankers told Business Insider in June that many late-stage healthcare companies are now eyeing IPOs in 2026 or later, due in part to continued market uncertainties.

Some startups are pushing their plans even further out, including Sword Health, a close rival to Hinge Health. CEO Virgilio Bento told TechCrunch last year that a 2025 IPO was a possibility for Sword. But in June, he told the publication his preferred IPO timeline was "maybe 2028."

"We believe market conditions currently lack the stability needed for an IPO to be the kind of accelerator we're looking for," Bento said in a statement to BI.

Whether or not startups decide to take the plunge this year, though, Barclays' head of Americas equity capital markets Rob Stowe told BI in June that Hinge Health's and Omada Health's IPOs send positive signals for the IPO market.

"The market is pretty robust. It's not going to be for all companies, but conditions feel as strong as I've seen them in a while," he said.

Here are 9 healthcare startups that could be knocking on the IPO door next, in alphabetical order.

Aledade

Healthcare startup Aledade could be an important proof point for the public markets on the viability of value-based care enablement technologies, bankers and investors told BI.

Founded in 2014 by former national coordinator for health IT Dr. Farzad Mostashari, Aledade sells data-driven software to independent primary care practices to help them deliver value-based care, improving patient outcomes while lowering costs. The company has steadily grown its presence across Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial insurance programs, now working with over 2,400 practices to support 3 million patients.

To date, Aledade has raised about $660 million in funding from investors like Lightspeed Venture Partners and Venrock, most recently grabbing a $260 million Series F round in June 2023. The company didn't share its valuation at the time.

Aledade said in 2022 that it had been bringing in more earnings than losses, before subtracting for expenses like taxes, for the past two years. In 2023, after its Series F raise, the company said it brought in $475 million in revenue the previous year. Its high revenue and apparent profitability could help position the company for an IPO, although the company will have to differentiate itself from prior value-based care tech listings such as Agilon Health and Privia Health, which have seen their shares decline on the public markets since their 2021 IPOs.

"Aledade is focused on building our business and doing what is good for patients, practices and society, as well as for shareholders, consistent with our public benefit mission. An initial public offering in the future is always possible, based on timing, conditions and financial needs," said Aledade senior VP of communications Julie Bataille in a statement to BI. "However, we don't comment on specific plans and remain focused on the important work of advancing efforts to support independent primary care organizations and their success in value-based care."

Datavant

Health data startup Datavant has been deal hunting this year, and its acquisition spree could hint at a coming IPO.

Datavant, which manages patient data exchanges between providers, payers, and life sciences organizations, spun out of Vivek Ramaswamy's Roivant Sciences in 2017. Datavant last shared its valuation when it merged with Ciox Health in June 2021 in a $7 billion deal, giving it the highest valuation of the startups on this list.

In the past year, Datavant has made four acquisitions, most recently buying health records retrieval company Ontellus in June. Datavant previous acquired venture-backed real-world-evidence startup Aetion in May, and picked up data privacy organization Trace Data and two data analytics products from healthcare AI startup Apixio in September.

Private equity firm New Mountain Capital is Datavant's controlling shareholder. Flare Capital Partners' Parth Desai told Business Insider in December that he expects private-equity-backed healthcare companies to make tuck-in acquisitions in 2025 as they look ahead to potential IPOs in 2026.

"With New Mountain Capital's support as a longtime shareholder that is bullish on our business, we are fortunate to have flexibility as we continue to grow and diversify for our clients," said Datavant CEO Kyle Armbrester in an email to BI. "If market conditions are right, and there's a need for cash to continue to grow the business, a public offering is a potential option we would consider in the future."

Lyra Health

Founded in 2015, Lyra Health is the highest valued startup in mental health. The company was last valued at $5.58 billion in January 2022, when it raised $235 million in Series G funding.

The startup provides mental health services to employers like Morgan Stanley and Zoom, aiming to help clients save thousands of dollars in healthcare claims with its evidence-based treatment. Newly public Hinge Health and Omada Health also contract with employers with similar cost-cutting aims, and their public market debuts could bring Lyra's IPO prospects into focus.

In December, Lyra Health said its cofounder, David Ebersman, would transition from the role of CEO to board chairman following the death of his son in 2024. Jennifer Schulz, most recently the CEO of Experian's North American division, joined Lyra as its new CEO.

Bankers said Schulz's experience in a leadership role at publicly traded Experian could be a boon to Lyra, though the startup may wait until she's further settled in the role to accelerate IPO plans.

Lyra has raised more than $900 million in funding to date from investors including Dragoneer, Coatue, and Salesforce Ventures.

Lyra declined to comment for this story.

Medline

Medline is a long-standing healthcare company, not a startup. But its IPO could make waves across the industry.

Medline was founded in 1966 to manufacture and sell medical supplies to hospitals and clinics. In December, it said it had confidentially filed its S-1 to go public.

Bankers told BI that Medline's IPO would be an important example for the markets of private equity buying a healthcare company and taking it public at a premium. Blackstone, Carlyle, and Hellman & Friedman acquired Medline in 2021 for $34 billion. Reuters reported in December that Medline's IPO could raise over $5 billion and value the company at up to $50 billion.

However, President Donald Trump's shifting tariffs policies could force Medline to delay its public market debut further. Robert Stowe, head of Americas equity capital markets at Barclays, told BI in June that public investors are sensitive to businesses that could be exposed to tariffs. Medline manufactures many products in China, which has been aggressively targeted by Trump's tariff proposals.

Medline didn't respond to requests for comment for this story.

Maven Clinic

Maven, which provides care for women and families through employers and health plans, could provide critical evidence for the market viability of women's health companies with a potential IPO.

Founded in 2014, Maven is backed by leading VC firms including General Catalyst, Sequoia, and Oak HC/FT. The company last raised $125 million in Series F funding in October, led by the private equity firm StepStone Group at a $1.7 billion valuation. The raise boosted Maven's total funding to over $425 million.

The company now says it works with over 2,000 employers and health plans to provide fertility benefits, maternity care, menopause support, and related care.

Investors previously told BI that Maven's IPO, if successful, could help validate the women's health sector for investors and pave the way for more women's health startups to raise funding and find exits.

Maven's strongest signal of its IPO ambitions can be found in its C-Suite. In the first half of the year, the company hired multiple executives with experience guiding companies through public listings.

BI reported in October that Maven let go of its chief financial officer to bring in a new CFO with public market experience. The company said in June it had hired Katie Rooney as its CFO, who previously served as CFO and COO at Alight Solutions through its divestiture from Blackstone-owned Aon Hewitt and its public listing in 2021 via SPAC merger.

Maven also said it had hired a new chief commercial officer, chief legal and administrative officer, and chief communications officer. Maven's new chief legal and administrative officer, Susan Stick, most recently served as general counsel at Life360, leading the company through its 2024 IPO.

Maven declined to comment for this story.

Spring Health

Spring Health has long sought to separate itself from the pack with its AI-powered approach to precision mental healthcare.

Spring Health's algorithms help tailor care plans to an individual's needs, with various types of care provided through its app, such as coaching therapy, psychiatry, and meditation exercises. The company sells its services to employers including Microsoft, Pfizer, and the Coca-Cola Company, as well as health plans.

The Tiger Global-backed startup raised $100 million in Series E funding in July 2024 at a $3.3 billion valuation. According to PitchBook, Spring Health has raised about $466 million since its 2016 founding.

As AI takes off in digital health, Spring says it's embedded AI in its electronic health record system, its patient app, and its real-time analytics for employers. The startup has also expanded the range of its mental health services over the years, most recently digging deeper into pediatric care and support for substance use disorders.

Per Rock Health, mental health was the top-funded clinical indication in 2024 for the sixth year straight, with mental health startups bringing in $1.4 billion last year. Despite high fundraising levels, however, the sector hasn't seen an IPO since 2021. Bankers said Spring Health and Lyra Health are consistently discussed as the most likely two candidates for the next mental health public listings.

Spring Health didn't respond to requests for comment for this story.

Transcarent

Transcarent contracts with employers to provide health navigation and virtual care to employees. The startup looks a lot closer to an exit after a big acquisition earlier this year.

The startup bought the public health benefits company Accolade in a $621 million deal that closed in April. The acquisition looks to have significantly increased Transcarent's customer base and thus made a big contribution to its top line — before the Transcarent deal, Accolade said it contracted with over 1,400 employers and health plans, and the company reported $414 million in revenue in the fiscal year 2024. Now, with Accolade on board, Transcarent says it works with over 1,700 employers and health plans. Transcarent hasn't publicly shared its revenue.

The Accolade acquisition was financed by Transcarent investors including General Catalyst and CEO Glen Tullman's 62 Ventures, cash on Transcarent's balance sheet, and debt provided by JP Morgan. Transcarent has raised about $450 million since its 2020 founding, including $126 million in a Series D funding round in May 2024 at a $2.2 billion valuation.

Tullman has by far the most experience with taking companies public of the CEOs on this list. Before Transcarent, he led three companies through public listings — Livongo, Allscripts, and Enterprise Systems. His success with Livongo, the diabetes care company he founded, stands out as a rare example of blockbuster digital health returns; Livongo went public in 2019 at a $2.5 billion valuation, before being acquired by Teladoc the next year for $18.5 billion, at the time the biggest deal ever in the digital health market.

That experience could set Transcarent up to pursue an IPO when market conditions look favorable. Tullman told MedCity News in May 2024 that he had "no interest" in selling the company, but would consider an IPO in the future.

Transcarent will have to separate itself from previous care navigation IPOs, however, including Health Catalyst, whose stock has declined more than 85% since its 2019 IPO. It'll also need to contend with Accolade's cash burn, since the health benefits company reported a net loss of $100 million in the fiscal year 2024.

In a statement to BI, Tullman said Transcarent is focused on integrating its solutions to bring its AI-powered platform, called WayFinding, to more members and employers to make healthcare more accessible and affordable.

"At Transcarent, our priority is meeting the needs of our Members and delivering measurable results for our clients. If we do those things well, the rest will follow," Tullman said.

Virta Health

Omada Health's June IPO could set up diabetes care peer Virta Health to follow in its footsteps.

Founded in 2014, Virta Health made its name in virtual diabetes care, helping patients reverse type 2 diabetes through personalized, low-carb nutrition plans. It's expanding quickly into obesity treatment and added GLP-1 prescriptions like Ozempic for weight loss in January. The company previously prescribed GLP-1s only for diabetes.

CEO Sami Inkinen told Business Insider in January that Virta was bringing in over $100 million in annual recurring revenue, up 60% from the year before. He said he expected even faster growth in 2025, driven by surging demand for Virta's weight-loss care.

"An IPO is the next milestone for us," Inkinen said at the time. He declined to provide details on Virta's potential IPO timing, but said the company wants to be profitable before it braves the public markets.

Virta was last valued at $2 billion in 2021, when it raised $133 million in Series E funding led by Tiger Global. Inkinen said in January that Virta would be profitable by the end of 2025.

In a conversation with BI at the end of June, Inkinen declined to share specifics about a potential Virta IPO or a likely timeline for its public listing. However, he said it's always been his plan for Virta to be an independent public company, adding that Virta is tracking towards that goal.

Inkinen said Virta's growth rate is accelerating and that the company is ahead of its financial targets for the year. He's not stressing about timing the market, he said.

"The very best investor relations is fantastic financials. If you have those as a company, that's the best marketing before IPO, and for the IPO and beyond. Build a great business, and the rest will take care of itself," he said.

Zelis

Zelis was started 30 years ago under the name Stratose, later merging with GlobalCare and Pay-Plus Solutions to create Zelis Healthcare. The company now sells healthtech software to payers and providers to manage medical claims and process electronic payments.

Bankers told Business Insider that Zelis's business is stable with strong economics that could position it well for an IPO.

Zelis's profile isn't too dissimilar from Waystar, a private-equity-backed healthcare payments company that went public in June 2024 with an initial market cap of about $3.5 billion. Since then, Waystar's stock has risen about 88%, and as of late June, the company boasts a $6.7 billion market cap. That success could set Zelis up to follow in Waystar's footsteps.

Zelis announced it had sold a minority stake for an undisclosed price in December, led by Mubadala Capital and including Norwest and HarbourVest. The recent capital raise could push Zelis's IPO back if the company doesn't see a significant financial benefit to going public, bankers said.

Zelis declined to comment for this story.

The White House promised a summer of tariff clarity. Now it looks like it might be another season of confusion.

Why it matters: The rules of global trade in the Trump era are just as hazy now as they were in early April, when the White House suggested "90 deals in 90 days" that would ease the uncertainty.

The big picture: The fear among business leaders is the trade wars started when Trump took office don't have a firm end date — a worry that grows with each shifting deadline.

• "Whatever deals there are going to be, let's just ink it and move on," Sue Spence, the chair of the Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing business survey committee, tells Axios.
• "But even if that happens, there is such a disbelief it will stick," says Spence, who surveys manufacturers each month to gauge the industry's health.

The intrigue: There has been a profound shift in the bar for economic certainty in the Trump era relative to years past, when it was a no-brainer that large global trade deals would define global commerce for the foreseeable future.

• Asked what certainty in this new era might look like, Spence says: "Enough time needs to go by with no other changes."
• "If I'm the CFO of a company, and there is a deal in place with China and Europe, and three months go by and there hasn't been a big change, relations seem good with no new threats — then maybe I am going to be comfortable enough to move forward with decisions I have delayed," Spence says.

Driving the news: The reciprocal tariffs paused roughly 90 days ago were set to be reimposed on Wednesday. Days before, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that August 1 is actually the next date to watch.

• "President Trump's going to be sending letters to some of our trading partners saying that if you don't move things along, then on August 1, you will boomerang back to your April 2 tariff level," Bessent told CNN on Sunday.
• Bessent said the Trump administration was not extending the deadline: "If you want to speed things up, have at it. If you want to go back to the old rate, that's your choice."

Between the lines: It is the latest murky timeline that business leaders will have to try to understand.

• The list already includes July 21, when the U.S. and Canada are supposed to notch a deal. There is also Aug. 12, when the 90-day trade truce with China expires.
• Deals with other major trading partners — Japan and Mexico, for instance — look uncertain.

What to watch: Bessent hinted that other deals could be imminent over the next 48 hours, in addition to the two previously announced trade frameworks with the U.K. and Vietnam.

• "There's a lot of foot dragging on the other side, and so I would expect to see several big announcements over the next couple of days," Bessent said.

The bottom line: So much for certainty.

At town halls in their districts and in one-on-one meetings with constituents and activists, Democratic members of Congress are facing a growing thrum of demands to break the rules, fight dirty — and not be afraid to get hurt.

Why it matters: House Democrats told Axios they see a growing anger among their base that has, in some cases, morphed into a disregard for American institutions, political traditions and even the rule of law.

• "This idea that we're going to save every norm and that we're not going to play [Republicans'] game ... I don't think that's resonating with voters anymore," said one House Democrat.
• Another told Axios that a "sense of fear and despair and anger" among voters "puts us in a different position where ... we can't keep following norms of decorum."
• Axios spoke to more than two dozen House Democrats for this story, with many requesting anonymity to offer candid insights about their interactions with constituents and activists.

Zoom out: For months, Democratic lawmakers have fumed that their base's demands to "fight harder" misunderstand the lack of legislative and investigative power afforded to the minority party in Congress.

• "We've got people who are desperately wanting us to do something ... no matter what we say, they want [more]," said Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.), the chair of the center-left New Democrat Coalition, told Axios.
• Liberal voters have angrily accosted Democrats at town halls for — in their view — not doing enough to counter President Trump's agenda.
• In response, some Democrats have tried to up the ante: Heckling Trump, mounting rogue impeachment attempts, and getting tackled by law enforcement and even indicted in their efforts to scrutinize the president's deportation campaign.

What we're hearing: The grassroots wants more. "Some of them have suggested ... what we really need to do is be willing to get shot" when visiting ICE facilities or federal agencies, a third House Democrat told Axios.

• "Our own base is telling us that what we're doing is not good enough ... [that] there needs to be blood to grab the attention of the press and the public," the lawmaker said.
• A fourth House Democrat said constituents have told them "civility isn't working" and to prepare for "violence ... to fight to protect our democracy."
• A fifth House Democrat told Axios that "people online have sent me crazy s*** ... told me to storm the White House and stuff like that," though they added that "there's always people on the internet saying crazy stuff."

Between the lines: While other Democratic lawmakers said their discussions haven't gone that far, nearly every one who spoke to Axios cited examples of voters' panic and fury fueling demands to adopt brute force tactics.

• A sixth House Democrat said that when they try to persuade voters to channel their frustration into a focus on winning back Congress in 2026, "people who are angry don't accept that. They're angry beyond things."
• "It's like ... the Roman coliseum. People just want more and more of this spectacle," said a seventh lawmaker.

What they're saying: Schneider, like other Democrats, said Trump impeachment efforts have proven extremely popular with grassroots voters and that, even as he has tried to shoot them down as impractical, some simply find the idea "irresistible."

• Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), a high-profile progressive, said he believes "the most effective pushback to Trump's unconstitutional actions is to model a reverence for the Constitution and the rule of law."

Zoom in: Many lawmakers said these voters tend to be white, well-educated and live in upscale suburban or urban neighborhoods.

• "What I have seen is a demand that we get ourselves arrested intentionally or allow ourselves to be victims of violence, and ... a lot of times that's coming from economically very secure white people," said an eighth House Democrat.
• "Not only would that be a gift to Donald Trump, not only would it make the job of Republicans in Congress easier if we were all mired in legal troubles ... [we are] a group that is disproportionately people of color, women, LGBTQ people — people who do not fare very well in prison."

The bottom line: "The expectations aren't just unreal. They're dangerous," the eighth House Democrat said.

• A ninth lawmaker told Axios: "I actually said in a meeting, 'When they light a fire, my thought is to grab an extinguisher,'" a ninth House Democrat told Axios.
• "And someone at the table said, 'Have you tried gasoline?'"

Less than six months into President Trump's second term, several possible GOP contenders for president in 2028 already are racing to build their national profiles, travel to early primary states and establish relationships with major donors.

Why it matters: Trump, who's dominated GOP politics for a decade, can't legally run again. Now several ambitious Republicans are signaling they see an opening to offer themselves to primary voters as the future of the party.

• "Everyone knows Trump has one term left, and I would say its a wide-open opportunity," said Henry Barbour, a former Republican National Committee member. "These things start earlier and earlier."

State of play: Trump has mentioned Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio as possible successors, and they're widely seen as the early favorites for the 2028 nomination.

• Vance has been using his perch as finance chair of the Republican National Committee to make inroads with donors, and has been crisscrossing the country raising money for the party.
• Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who has been raising her profile with a series of photo ops with ICE agents during immigration raids, is also viewed as a possible 2028 contender.

And though it's too early for anyone to say they're running, several GOP officeholders are positioning themselves to do just that:

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin

• Youngkin will visit Iowa — the traditional home of an early primary caucus — later this month for an event with state GOP chair Jeff Kaufmann.
• Next month, Youngkin will headline the annual fundraising dinner for the GOP in South Carolina, another key primary state.
• During the past year, he's appeared at state party functions in California, New York and North Carolina.

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul

• Paul is staking out turf as a deficit hawk and forcefully opposed Trump's big tax and spending bill, which is projected to add more than $3 trillion to the nation's deficits. He was one of just three GOP senators to vote against the bill.
• The senator, who waged an unsuccessful bid for president in 2016, recently went to Iowa and South Carolina and plans to go to New Hampshire, another early primary state, this fall.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz

• Cruz was an outspoken supporter of Trump's airstrikes on Iran — including during an argument with Tucker Carlson — a move that endeared him to the party's hawkish donors.
• Cruz was the runner-up in the 2016 GOP primary, has a top-ranked podcast and a syndicated radio show. He's planning to host a donor retreat next year and has built a formidable small-dollar fundraising network.

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp

• In June, Kemp addressed the Ronald Reagan Institute, a frequent stop for presidential hopefuls.
• He has used his perch as Republican Governors Association chair to introduce himself to major donors in key areas such as California, Texas and Palm Beach, Fla. Kemp has a leadership PAC that last year drew a $1 million contribution from Republican mega-donor Miriam Adelson.
• Kemp has had a sometimes-tense relationship with Trump, stemming from Kemp's refusal to back Trump's claims that the 2020 presidential vote in Georgia was "stolen" from Trump. But their relationship has appeared amiable more recently.

Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders

• Sanders is headed to Iowa this month to appear at an event hosted by the Family Leader, a group overseen by prominent evangelical activist Bob Vander Plaats.
• Sanders, who was White House press secretary during Trump's first term, recently went to Tennessee and Texas to raise money and soon will visit Chicago.
• The governor is trying to establish herself as a prominent voice on AI, and pushed to strip Trump's domestic policy bill of language banning state-level regulation of it.

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott

• Scott, who ran unsuccessfully in 2024, is using his National Republican Senatorial Committee chairmanship to travel and make inroads with donors.

Zoom out: Republicans say would-be 2028 hopefuls can't afford to wait.

• Preparations for the 2028 primary will accelerate next year, when aspirants hit the trail for midterm candidates with an eye toward establishing alliances and earning chits.
• "Building infrastructure and making friends — among activists, operatives and donors — is tedious work," said Rob Godfrey, a South Carolina-based GOP strategist. "It's never too early to start."

Between the lines: Jumping into the 2028 conversation isn't just about seeking the White House.

• It's also about raising a prospect's profile and injecting them into the mix for VP consideration or a possible Cabinet post in 2029.

Yes, but: Quietly hitting the trail this early has its risks.

• Most Republican voters want party figures focused on Trump's agenda rather than their own ambitions, some GOP strategists warn.
• Trump is likely to play an outsized role in determining the party's next nominee, and could push back if he perceives would-be candidates putting themselves ahead of his priorities.
• "Tread carefully," said Dave Carney, a longtime Republican strategist in New Hampshire.

The overly agreeable nature of most artificial intelligence chatbots can be irritating — but it poses more serious problems, too, experts warn.

Why it matters: Sycophancy, the tendency of AI models to adjust their responses to align with users' views, can make ChatGPT and its ilk prioritize flattery over accuracy.

Driving the news: In April, OpenAI rolled back a ChatGPT update after users reported the bot was overly flattering and agreeable — or, as CEO Sam Altman put it on X, "It glazes too much."

• Users reported a raft of unctuous, over-the-top compliments from ChatGPT, which began telling people how smart and wonderful they were.
• On Reddit, posters compared notes on how the bot seemed to cheer on users who said they'd stopped taking their medications with answers like "I am so proud of you. And—I honor your journey."

OpenAI quickly rolled back the updates it blamed for the behavior. In a May post, its researchers admitted that such people-pleasing behavior can pose concerns for users' mental health.

• In a Q&A on Reddit, OpenAI's head of model behavior said the company is thinking about ways to evaluate sycophancy in a more "'objective' and scalable way."

Context: A study by Anthropic researchers on how human feedback can encourage sycophantic behavior showed that AI assistants will sometimes modify accurate answers when questioned by the user — and ultimately give an inaccurate response.

• Chatbots also tended to admit a mistake even when they hadn't made one.

Zoom in: Large language models, which are trained on massive sets of data, are built to generate smooth, comprehensible text, Caleb Sponheim, an experience specialist at Nielsen Norman Group, told Axios. But there's "no step in the training of an AI model that does fact-checking."

• "These tools inherently don't prioritize factuality because that's not how the mathematical architecture works," he said.
• Sponheim notes that language models are often trained to deliver responses that are highly rated by humans. That positive feedback is like a "reward."
• "There is no limit to the lengths that a model will go to maximize the rewards that are provided to it," he said. "It is up to us to decide what those rewards are and when to stop it in its pursuit of those rewards."

Yes, but: AI makers are responding to consumer demand, notes Julia Freeland Fisher, the director of education research at the Clayton Christensen Institute.

• In a world where people are at constant risk of being judged online, it's "no surprise that there's demand for flattery or even just ... a modicum of psychological safety with a bot," she noted.

She emphasized that AI's anthropomorphism — the assumption of human qualities by an inhuman entity — poses a catch-22, one that OpenAI noted in its GPT-4o scorecard.

• "The more personal AI is, the more engaging the user experience is, but the greater the risk of over-reliance and emotional connection," she said.

Luc LaFreniere, an assistant professor of psychology at Skidmore College, told Axios that sycophantic behavior can shatter users' perception of a chatbot's "empathy."

• "Anything that it does to show, 'Hey, I'm a robot, I'm not a person,' it breaks that perception, and it also then breaks the ability for people to benefit from empathy," he said.
• A report from Filtered.com co-founder Marc Zao-Sanders published in Harvard Business Review found that therapy and companionship is the top use case for generative AI in 2025.

Between the lines: "Just like social media can become an echo chamber for us, AI ... can become an echo chamber," LaFreniere said.

• Reinforcing users' preconceived beliefs when they may be mistaken can be generally problematic — but for patients or users in crisis seeking validation for harmful behaviors, it can be dangerous.

The bottom line: Frictionless interaction could give users unrealistic expectations of human relationships, LaFreniere said.

• "AI is a tool that is designed to meet the needs expressed by the user," he added. "Humans are not tools to meet the needs of users."

What's next: As the AI industry shifts toward multimodal and voice interactions, emotional experiences are inescapable, said Alan Cowen, the founder and CEO of Hume AI, whose mission is to build empathy into AI.

• Systems should be optimized to not just make users feel good, "but actually have better experiences in the long run," Cowen told Axios.

Go deeper: The robot empathy divide