Elon Musk and Republican senators are eyeing a package to claw back tens or hundreds of billions of dollars in federal spending after meeting in a closed-door lunch on Wednesday.

Why it matters: Musk has been leading the charge on spending cuts from the White House. Some lawmakers want to make his actions more permanent by making them law.

• No decisions have been made, but there was some early, general support for the idea being pushed by Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) after the lunch.

An infamous deficit hawk, Paul pitched Elon Musk on a massive rescission package during a lunch on Wednesday, he told reporters. Such a package would undo federal funding already approved by Congress.

• The bill would also only require 51 votes to pass the Senate — no Democrats needed.
• Paul said specific numbers weren't discussed, but he'd like to see $500 billion.

Zoom in: Musk "was elated" at the idea, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) told reporters. "I think he didn't realize it could be done at 51."

• "I do think there is a genuine appetite to continue this work within the legislative branch," Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) said after the lunch.
• Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said he backs Paul's plan.

Between the lines: President Trump has looked at ways to get around the 1974 Impoundment Control Act, which limits the president's power to withhold funds already appropriated by Congress.

• The U.S. Supreme Court on Wednesday ruled against Trump, requiring roughly $1.9 billion in foreign aid via USAID still be disbursed.
• "This Court does not look like it's warming towards the impoundment theory," Hawley said.
• It's not a good sign for other actions DOGE might want to take to cut spending without Congress.

Flashback: Republicans attempted to roll back $15 billion in government spending with a rescission package during the first Trump administration.

• But it failed due to "no" votes from Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Richard Burr (R-N.C.).
• Collins is now chair of the Senate appropriations committee, which plays a key role in the rescission process.

The number of migrants illegally crossing the U.S. southern border plummeted in February to the lowest level seen in decades, according to internal data obtained by Axios.

The big picture: Crossings had been trending down for several months, driven by policies on either side of the U.S.-Mexico border, experts say. But the numbers have plunged since Trump began implementing — and broadcasting — his sweeping immigration crackdown.

• "The Invasion of our Country is OVER," Trump wrote in a Saturday Truth Social post celebrating the decline.
• The drop represents an overlap of Trump's sweeping changes in policy and rhetoric with trends that began months before he returned to the White House, said the Migration Policy Institute's Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh, who closely tracks border data.

Driving the news: Border Patrol recorded around 8,300 apprehensions of migrants who crossed the border unlawfully between ports of entry in February, according to the data obtained by Axios.

• In January, according to CBP statistics, Border Patrol recorded some 29,100 encounters, down from around 47,300 the month prior.
• The February numbers are the lowest recorded since FY 2000, the earliest year of monthly data publicly accessible.
• There were over 130,000 encounters in both February 2023 and 2024.

Context: Illegal border crossings spiked at the end of 2023 but started to slope downward in 2024 after the Biden administration implemented new restrictions and Mexican officials ramped up enforcement.

• Mexico's actions were a "really key" reason for the downward trend "that often goes a bit under the radar," said Putzel-Kavanaugh.
• Former President Biden in June signed an executive order that took aggressive action to curtail border surges by implementing asylum restrictions in periods where border encounters were high.
• That triggered a "huge dip" in the number of migrants arriving irregularly between ports of entry, Putzel-Kavanaugh said.

The Trump administration's long-promised crackdown started on day one of his term. It sent shockwaves throughout the immigration system.

• Officials shut down an app that facilitated the legal entry of some migrants at the border, used military aircraft for deportations and loudly publicized a plan for mass deportations.
• The CBP One mobile application going dark left thousands stranded in Mexico, with their appointments for asylum screenings canceled.
• "The calculus was really starting to shift [prior to the app being shut down] where people were waiting in Mexico to get those appointments and be able to be processed that way, because there would still be access to humanitarian protection," Putzel-Kavanaugh said.

Zoom in: Migrants are likely in a "wait-and-see" moment today, Putzel-Kavanaugh said, as they make sense of how to navigate "many different layered policies" that make it "really hard to know if there's really access to humanitarian protection."

• There are also a number of pending legal challenges to the Trump administration's policies, including its efforts to fast-track deportations.

What to watch: Border crossings also fell sharply when Trump took office in 2017, but he faced his own border crisis when they spiked in 2019 — though not to the levels seen under Biden.

• It's unclear if the current ultra-low levels will be sustainable, says Putzel-Kavanaugh, noting border numbers are "volatile" and fluctuate in the context of an "ever-changing environment."
• And with Mexico playing a key role in keeping border numbers low, it's uncertain how tumultuous cross-border diplomacy — and a burgeoning trade war — will play into migration enforcement conversations.

Go deeper: Scoop: Trump's immigration arrests appear to lag Biden's

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Republicans on the Senate Finance Committee began hashing out what to do on taxes in a closed-door meeting Monday evening.

Why it matters: Don't expect the budget resolution that barely passed the House last week to stay as is. The two chambers passed very different budget resolutions.

• They will need to get on the same page to kick off the reconciliation process, which allows the Senate to get around its 60-vote filibuster.
• "We're working to put it all together in a way that makes the tax cuts permanent, prevents an increase in taxes, and deals with the key components and promises of the administration," Senate GOP Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) told Axios.

What to watch: Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) huddled separately right after the Senate meeting.

• Those two will be leading the tax debate for each chamber — a fight that could drag out for months.
• There's a lot less of an appetite for raising the SALT caps in the Senate than in the House.

Zoom in: One of the biggest changes the Senate is looking at is how it counts the cost of extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts, with Senate leadership pushing to adopt a current policy baseline — which makes the cost $0.

• "My understanding is that is a decision a parliamentarian is going to make," Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) told reporters after the meeting.
• Some conservatives like Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) won't like it, though Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) told Axios he is on board.
• "One point I tried to make is, I don't think that changes one iota how much money we spend," Cornyn said, adding, "I think it just demonstrates how illusory all the scoring really is."

President Trump's explosive Oval Office meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shocked hawkish Republican lawmakers and led one prominent GOP backer of Ukraine to suggest that Zelensky should resign.

Why it matters: The meeting angered Democrats, who were horrified by Trump and Vice President Vance's conduct. It offended some Republicans, with most of them reserving their ire for Zelensky.

• "He needs to either resign or change," Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told reporters outside the West Wing.
• Zelesnky "has made it almost impossible to sell to the American people that he's a good investment."

Other Republicans shared their concern about the long-term fallout of the short-tempered meeting.

• Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), in a text to Axios, said Friday was "a bad day for America's foreign policy."
• "Ukraine wants independence, free markets and rule of law. It wants to be part of the West. Russia hates us and our Western values. We should be clear that we stand for freedom," he said.
• Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), in a post on X, called the meeting "a disaster — especially for Ukraine," adding, "Sadly, the only winner of today is Vladimir Putin.

What they are saying: The most heated GOP criticism targeted Zelensky, while others argued the meeting was a loss for both countries.

• "I don't know if Zelensky can ever get where you want to go with the United States. Either he dramatically changes, or you need to get someone new," Graham said on Fox News' "America Reports."
• He described Zelensky as having "a chip on his shoulder." "I don't know if you can repair the damage. I don't know if you can ever do a deal with Zelensky anymore," he added, encouraging Zelensky to apologize.

The other side: Democrats were nearly unanimous in their condemnation of Trump's and Vance's behavior.

• "Trump and Vance are doing Putin's dirty work," Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y) said on X. "Senate Democrats will never stop fighting for freedom and democracy."
• "Trump and Vance tag teamed Zelensky," said Rep. Chuy Garcia (D-Ill.). "Truly shameful conduct that the world is seeing. Embarrassing."

What happened: The press conference with Trump, Zelensky, Vance and other leaders began with statements and questions from reporters — but devolved into a shouting match.

• Vance accused Zelensky of being disrespectful and ungrateful for U.S. support.
• Trump released a statement afterward, saying that he had determined Zelensky is "not ready for Peace if America is involved." Lunch and a joint press conference between the two leaders were canceled.
• Zelensky departed the White House about two and a half hours after he arrived, and a highly anticipated minerals deal was not signed.

President Trump and Elon Musk's campaign to shrink the federal government will be felt far outside the nation's capital — in deep red states as well as blue.

Why it matters: Some GOP lawmakers are already hearing from constituents and raising the alarm about the haphazard way federal employees are getting canned.

Zoom in: Federal civilian jobs make up 21% of all nonfarm employment in Washington, D.C. — far more than any state, according to government data analyzed by Pew Research Center.

• The cuts will undoubtedly affect D.C., but more than 80% of federal workers live outside of the metro area, according to Partnership for Public Service.
• Of the 10 states with the greatest percentage of federal employment, six voted for President Trump and five voted for then-Vice President Harris. (Maine and Utah are tied for 10th.)
• Alaska has the fourth-highest share of federal workers. Republican Lisa Murkowski, one of the state's senators, has been outspoken about her concerns with DOGE.

Zoom out: When looking at the total number of federal workers, Washington, D.C., has the most overall, at 162,000. When looking by state, California has the most, with more than 147,000 as of last March, per Pew's data.

• California is followed by Virginia, Maryland, Texas and Florida.
• Some federal workers are also in U.S. territories or overseas. Roughly 270,000 workers are not counted as they have their locations masked for security purposes, mostly in the intelligence space.

The U.S. vote against a United Nations resolution condemning Russian aggression is becoming another tension point between President Trump and Senate Republicans.

Why it matters: Republicans are bracing to have their party's leader challenge or undercut their core assumption about foreign policy. Some still hold out hope for a war-ending deal.

• "I think we should have voted 'aye'," Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) told Axios. "Clearly, Putin's Russia is the aggressor. And the world has been aware of that for over a decade."
• It's Wicker's second rebuke of Trump this month, after he called Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's comments on Ukraine's territorial borders a "rookie mistake."

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) called the vote "unfortunate," while Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) chose the word "shameful."

• "Refusing to acknowledge Russia as the undeniable and unprovoked aggressor is more than an unseemly moral equivalency — it reflects a gross misunderstanding of the nature of negotiations and leverage," Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said in a Monday statement.

What to watch: Other Republicans — including members of leadership — are choosing their words carefully or avoiding direct answers.

• "I don't know what's all behind that. My assumption is it's part of the negotiation right now," Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told Axios, adding, "I'm pretty clear about who I think started the war," referring to his past comments on Russia.
• "I've been very clear on the aggressors from the beginning," GOP Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) said. He did not answer directly about the U.N. vote, but said he agrees with President Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron about finding a way to end the war and "prevent additional Russian aggression."
• Known defense hawk Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) is taking a similar line. "I think Russia is the aggressor. I don't care about the U.N. resolution. I care about how this war ends and when it ends," he said.

The big picture: The U.S.' handling of the war in Ukraine has fractured the GOP since its start three years ago, with a growing isolationist wing of the party fighting against continued aid for Ukraine and a quicker end to the war.

The Senate adopted a budget resolution early Friday after an all-night "vote-a-rama" that would provide more than $300 billion dollars for border and defense.

Why it matters: Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has barreled forward with his backup plan as Speaker Johnson (R-La.) scrambles on his mega-package that would also make good on President Trump's tax promises.

• The measure passed 52-48 after Democrats raised dozens of unsuccessful amendments, including one on IVF.
• Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) was the only Republican to vote against the budget resolution.

Between the lines After 25 rounds of voting on amendments, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said Republicans "were forced to go on record and defend their plans to cut taxes for Donald Trump's billionaire friends."

• "What happened tonight was only the beginning," Schumer added. "This debate is gonna go on for weeks, and maybe months. Democrats will be ready to come back and do this over and over again."
• Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) voted with Democrats on failed amendments blocking Medicaid cuts.

Zoom in: The resolution provides $150 billion in additional defense spending and $175 billion for border. It also changes energy policy.

• The package will be offset by spending cuts and increased energy revenue.

What to watch: Getting both chambers to agree to a budget resolution is just the first step in the reconciliation process, which allows the Senate to get around the 60-vote filibuster for budget-related measures.

• The House and Senate have yet to agree on the first step.
• Once they do, they will also have to reach agreement on all the particulars — the funding, spending cuts and policies.

The big picture: House and Senate leadership have been divided over how best to go about passing Trump's biggest legislative priorities through budget reconciliation.

• Speaker Johnson insists the best chance of getting major wins through his razor-thin majority is if everything is in one package.
• Senate Republicans want to move faster on border and defense spending and give more time for negotiating a host of complicated and contentious tax issues in a second bill.
• Trump sided with Johnson this week, preferring "one, big beautiful bill." Still, Vice President Vance gave the Senate the green light to move forward with their own plan as backup.

The other side: Democrats tried to turn the budget "vote-a-rama" into a referendum against Trump's first month in office.

• Democrats mainly focused their amendments on cuts made by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and Trump's federal funding freeze.
• While none of their amendments passed, it gave Democrats an opportunity to get Republicans — especially moderates facing reelection next year — on the record about supporting Trump's agenda.
• "In 2026, these amendments are going to play a valuable role," Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) told Axios in an interview earlier this week.

Longtime Sen. Mitch McConnell's (R-Ky.) announcement Thursday that he will not seek reelection in 2026 has set off a furious scramble for the state's first vacant Senate seat in 15 years.

Why it matters: A large cohort of ambitious Kentucky Republicans has long been angling to succeed the 83-year-old former Senate GOP leader, who has held his seat since 1985.

• The state's other senator, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), was first elected in 2010.

Driving the news: McConnell, the longest serving Senate party leader in U.S. history, said in a floor speech that his "current term in the Senate will be my last."

• "Regardless of the political storms that may wash over this chamber ... I assure our colleagues that I will depart with great hope for the endurance of the Senate as an institution," he said.
• The Kentuckian made no public indication of who he may support to replace him — though his endorsement may not help in Trump's GOP.

State of play: Former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron, the unsuccessful GOP nominee for governor in 2023, responded quickly by launching his campaign to succeed McConnell.

• "Kentucky, it's time for a new generation of leadership in the U.S. Senate. Let's do this," Cameron said in a post on X, along with a logo making clear he is running for U.S. Senate.
• Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) also released a statement saying he's "considering running for Senate" and is "encouraged by the outpouring of support and my family and I will be making a decision about our future soon."
• Both men previously worked for McConnell — Barr as a college intern and Cameron as the senator's legal counsel.

Yes, but: Other prominent Kentucky politicians just as rapidly took themselves out of the running.

• Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, seen as one of the only Democrats who could seriously contest the seat, is "not running for Senate," his spokesperson Eric Hyers said in a post on X.
• House Oversight Committee chair James Comer (R-Ky.) "will not be running for Senate in 2026 but is strongly considering a run for Governor in 2027," his spokesperson Austin Hacker told Axios in a statement.
• Rep. Morgan McGarvey (D-Ky.) is also not running for the seat, a source familiar with his thinking told Axios.

Zoom in: National Democrats are signaling plans to potentially target Barr's U.S. House seat should he vacate it to run for Senate.

• "KY-06 could become a competitive race with a strong Democratic candidate and with Trump's approval numbers starting to sink," House Majority PAC spokesperson C.J. Warnke told Axios.
• The Democratic PAC already had the Barr's seat as one of its "districts to watch" — though it went for President Trump last year by nearly 27 percentage points. Barr hasn't faced a serious challenge since the 2018 Democratic wave election.
• Torunn Sinclair, a spokesperson for Republicans' Congressional Leadership Fund, told Axios: "Democrats have no shot here. President Trump remains extraordinarily popular in Kentucky, while Democrats are in constant disarray and have dismal approval numbers."

Former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will announce Thursday he will not seek reelection in 2026.

Why it matters: McConnell was the longest-serving Senate party leader in U.S. history and has become one of President Trump's GOP antagonists since the new administration began.

• McConnell, who stepped down from leadership last year, addressed colleagues on the Senate floor on Thursday. He received a standing ovation afterward.
• "Representing our commonwealth has been the honor of my lifetime. I will not seek this honor an eighth time," McConnell said. "My current term in the Senate will be my last."
• He said his birthday, Feb. 20, was as good a time as any to make his announcement.

The big picture: The senator oversaw aggressive Republican efforts to slash taxes and reshape the federal courts.

• His health scares in recent years, including freezing in front of reporters and several falls, reignited criticism of older public officeholders staying in their roles.
• He eventually endorsed Trump during the election but had previously condemned his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol attack.

What he's saying: McConnell's speech focused on what has long been his top priorities — preserving the important role of the Senate, confirming judges, investing in U.S. defense and preserving the filibuster.

• He said he still has "some unfinished business" to attend to in what is left of his term.
• "Regardless of the political storms that may wash over this chamber during the time I have remaining, I assure our colleagues that I will depart with great hope for the endurance of the Senate as an institution," McConnell said.
• "There are any number of reasons for pessimism, but the strength of the Senate is not one of them," he added.

Zoom in: A biography published in October drew on thousands of archival materials, letters and more than 100 interviews to piece together the senator's life story.

Go deeper: Mitch McConnell takes his revenge on Trump

Editor's note: This is a developing story and will be updated.

Vice President Vance on Wednesday gave the green light to the Senate to keep moving on their budget resolution, even after President Trump endorsed House Speaker Johnson's (R-La.) "one, big beautiful bill."

Why it matters: Trump took Johnson's side in a morning social media post, sending Senate leadership into confusion. But the Senate is back on track to adopt a $300 billion budget resolution this week in case the House can't follow through.

• "We are moving forward with reconciliation tomorrow, foot on the gas, moving forward to pass the shared agenda that we have with the White House," Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) told reporters after the lunch.

Zoom in: Vance expressed support for the Senate's plan of first tackling border and military spending, which is set to be adopted as soon as this week, sources familiar with what was said at lunch told Axios.

• But Vance also told them the president still prefers Johnson's budget reconciliation plan, which would include Trump's many tax promises, including extending the 2017 tax cuts, no tax on tips and raising SALT caps.
• Another fissure between the two chambers is over whether to make Trump's 2017 tax cuts permanent — a plan the Senate supports, but the House bill does not currently accomplish.
• Barrasso said that everyone in the conference lunch "supports making the situation with taxes permanent," ostensibly including the vice president.

What to watch: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) raised the issue of Medicaid cuts during lunch — and received applause after telling Vance that they should be on the table, sources in the room told Axios.

• Trump has repeatedly and publicly said that Medicaid and Social Security will not be touched.
• It will be difficult to reach the kind of spending cuts conservatives would like to see without looking at Medicaid.

The intrigue: Vance joked early in the lunch that he was sure senators had already leaked to Axios what he had just said, multiple sources told Axios.

Between the lines: Senate leadership has long said they would defer to whatever the House can pass with its thin margins.

• "The House, as you know, is not here this week," Barrasso said. "If that bill had already been passed, that would be a different discussion."

As the Trump administration continues its crusade to pare down the federal job rolls and slash federal spending, some Republicans on Capitol Hill are growing unnerved by what they see as an imprecise exercise.

Why it matters: The job and funding cuts are now hitting GOP lawmakers' districts and states. There's also a larger conflict brewing over whether the administration can simply bypass Congress on these decisions.

• DOGE's efforts to shutter the U.S. Agency for International Development, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and other agencies could bring matters to a head, one House Republican told Axios.
• "I think you're going to see a clash when they ... start abolishing [agencies]," the lawmaker said. "Say like USAID, right? We authorized that. That's a creature of Congress."
• "If they try to do something like that, then you're going to get into a constitutional argument or crisis."

Driving the news: DOGE's spree of job cuts is starting to target federal roles that even some of Trump's Republican allies in Congress may deem too essential to sacrifice.

• That includes the Federal Aviation Administration firing several hundred of its 45,000 employees amid a string of fear-inducing plane crashes.
• The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which runs the National Weather Service and helps combat natural disasters, is also on the chopping block, Axios' Andrew Freedman and Ben Geman reported.
• The administration even fired over 300 workers at the National Nuclear Security Administration — which manages the U.S. nuclear arsenal — but has since scrambled to reinstate most of them, according to CNN.

What they're saying: Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) told Axios the administration is moving "too fast." She warned Elon Musk's team should wait until agency heads are confirmed and can take "a more surgical approach."

• She said some recent actions "violate restrictions that are in current law" and the team is "making mistakes," referencing the accidental firing of officials working on bird flu.
• "Before making cuts rashly, the Administration should be studying and staffing to see what the consequences are. Measure twice before cutting. They have had to backtrack multiple times," said Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.).
• Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) also has concerns and told Axios of her state's many federal workers: "We all want efficiencies, there is a way to do it, and the way these people have been treated has been awful in many cases. Awful."

Zoom in: Several other lawmakers, including Sens. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) and Bill Cassidy (R-La.), have criticized the various agency layoffs as well, according to Politico.

• Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) told RadioIowa it is "a tragedy for people that are getting laid off," but that "this is an executive branch decision."
• "Congress can't do anything except complain about it," he said.

The other side: "President Trump has enjoyed broad support on his plan to ensure that taxpayer-funded programs align with the mandate the American people gave him in November," said White House spokesperson Anna Kelly.

• Kelly said that DOGE is "already uncovering waste, fraud, and abuse" and that Trump will "cut programs that do not serve the interests of the American people and keep programs that put America First."
• A White House official pointed Axios to statements of support from 17 Senate Republicans, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.).

Zoom out: While Republicans have largely applauded the swiftness of DOGE's hacking and slashing, some are quietly fuming that their Constitutional role in controlling federal funds could be steamrolled in the process.

• The House Republican who spoke anonymously warned that many conservatives are "very constitutionalist" and may be inclined to protect Congress' power if forced to do so.
• "Even though it's our guy in the White House, if there's a lot of executive overreach, we want to protect the institution of Congress," they said.

Between the lines: Despite taking a back seat in Trump's "government efficiency" drive, GOP lawmakers are not without leverage.

• Trump will need his whole party on board in Congress when it comes to passing his massive budget reconciliation bill later this year.
• In the House, Republicans have a razor-thin majority and cannot afford more than a couple of defections on a party-line bill — meaning Trump will have to keep nearly every GOP lawmaker sated.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with comments from the White House.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) defied House Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-La.) warning by moving ahead Tuesday on a $300 billion budget bill.

• "It's time to act," Thune posted on X.

Why it matters: Johnson is clinging to a one-bill, mega-MAGA package to overcome his tiny House majority and pass President Trump's priorities.

• With the House on recess this week, he's threatened to block any Senate-passed budget bill until the House finishes its own package.

⚡️ But the Senate wants a quick win — especially on the border — before tackling the complicated and expensive tax issues.

• Top Trump officials have bolstered the Senate's argument, raising the alarm about the need for more border cash.

Johnson didn't directly respond to Thune's challenge but posted that the House remains "laser-focused on sending our bill to President Trump's desk."

• "It's time to act on ALL of the powerful mandates the American people gave to [Trump] in November," House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) posted shortly after Thune's comments.
• "All of Trump's priorities in one big, beautiful bill start moving when we pass" Rep. Jodey Arrington's (R-Texas) budget, Scalise wrote.

WARSAW -- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth doubled down on remarks he made at NATO this week about the terms of a potential Ukraine-Russia peace deal, saying his job was simply to "introduce realism to the conversation."

Why it matters: Hegseth's comments, followed Wednesday by President Trump's initiation of direct negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, drew fierce criticism from NATO allies and even some Republicans.

• "I don't know who wrote the speech — it is the kind of thing Tucker Carlson could have written, and Carlson is a fool," Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), chair of the Armed Services Committee, told Politico.
• Wicker, speaking on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, suggested that Hegseth had made a "rookie mistake" and "walked back some of what he said" on Thursday.

But Hegseth, whose position on Ukraine and NATO was echoed by Trump in the Oval Office on Thursday, rejected the notion that he walked back anything at a press conference with Poland's defense minister.

What they're saying: "I stand by the comments that I made on that first day in the Ukraine Contact Group — and that's for all the press out there, who it's difficult for them to understand that," Hegseth told reporters Friday.

• "My job today and in Brussels was to introduce realism to the conversation. The reality that returning to 2014 borders as part of a negotiated settlement is unlikely. The reality of U.S. troops in Ukraine is unlikely. The reality of Ukraine membership in NATO as a part of negotiated settlement, unlikely," he said.
• "That said, I would never put constraints around what the president of the United States would be willing to negotiate with the sovereign leaders of both Russia and Ukraine," Hegseth added.

Between the lines: Hegseth, like Vice President Vance and other Trump emissaries in Europe this week, is walking a difficult tightrope as negotiations get underway.

• Trump's position is clear, even if it's unpopular with Russia hawks: He believes Ukraine's potential membership in NATO instigated Putin's invasion, and that ending the war is the top priority.
• But Trump is also a self-styled "deal-maker," as Hegseth has repeatedly stressed this week, and refuses to definitively rule out trading chips as a matter of principle.

The big picture: What has proven most controversial in Washington, Brussels and Kyiv this week is the notion that Trump and Putin would directly negotiate a deal without Ukraine's approval.

• "I think Ukraine ought to be the one to negotiate its own peace deal," Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) told Axios. "I don't think it should be imposed upon it by any other country, including ours."
• "It's obvious that Europeans can't be involved in securing peace that they haven't been involved in negotiating," German defense minister Boris Pistorius told reporters in Munich, calling Hegseth's comments "clumsy."

Go deeper: Trump and Hegseth send NATO scrambling over future of Ukraine

For the third time in three weeks, former Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) had a scathing explanation after he voted "no" on a Trump nominee.

Why it matters: Freed from his leadership role and with a long history of antagonism between himself and President Trump, McConnell has become one of new Senate GOP leader John Thune's (R-S.D.) top dissenters.

• "I'm a survivor of childhood polio," McConnell said of his "no" vote on Thursday for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for HHS secretary.
• "I will not condone the relitigation of proven cures, and neither will millions of Americans who credit their survival and quality of life to scientific miracles."

Zoom in: McConnell was the lone Republican to vote against Kennedy and director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard.

• He was joined by Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) in voting against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. McConnell voted "yes" on the 13 other nominees who have been confirmed.
• McConnell harshly criticized Trump's use of tariffs in an op-ed published Wednesday, saying they are "bad policy" and will raise prices.

What they're saying: Trump minced no words about McConnell on Thursday in the Oval Office.

• "Well, I feel sorry for Mitch," Trump said, claiming that McConnell "wanted to stay leader."
• Trump accused McConnell of not being "equipped mentally" and letting "the Republican Party go to hell."

Between the lines: McConnell, 82, is up for reelection in 2026. He has not announced whether he intends to run.

• The controversial "no" votes only further fuel expectations he will retire.

Some 20 senators have their bags packed for the Munich Security Conference this weekend, but they are waiting on a final green light from Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) before heading to Andrews Air Force Base.

Why it matters: Thune has threatened to make the Senate work weekends before, but never with one of the year's most cherished CODELs hanging in the balance.

• In an email to senators, Thune warned they may have to stay in town to vote on President Trump's nominations on Friday, sources familiar with the matter told Axios.
• That would delay, and potentially cancel, their participation in the annual security conference, where many senators say that simply showing up is one of their most important messages. The conference runs from Friday to Sunday.
• Allies are eager for insight into how Trump and a Republican Congress will handle everything from the war in Ukraine to redeveloping the Gaza Strip.

The other side: "I'm trying to hold the plane hostage," Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) joked to Axios.

• He thinks senators should stay and get more nominations done through Friday.

Zoom out: Senators love their CODELs. They especially love the Munich Security Conference, where they can have weisswurst and sweet mustard for breakfast and helles beer at lunch. Generals and heads of state mill about in the Hotel Bayerischer Hof.

• For Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who typically leads one of the larger delegations, it is an opportunity to take stock of what has worked and what hasn't.
• His message this weekend will be "to assess why deterrence failed and make sure that never happens again, to make sure that aggression is not rewarded in a fashion," Graham told Axios.
• He plans to introduce sanctions against Beijing that snap into effect if China invades Taiwan.

Zoom in: Trump has alarmed allies with his unorthodox approach to foreign policy, real estate diplomacy and land acquisitions — and sometimes all three.

• He has threatened significant tariffs on U.S. allies, offered to buy Greenland, make Canada the 51st state, turn Gaza into a "big real estate site" and proposed taking back control of the Panama Canal.
• Senators can expect some awkward questions from foreign leaders on all of the above.

The bottom line: When asked if she's prepared to answer questions on those topics, Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) said she will "let those speak for themselves."

• "The president obviously has a plan that he's working on, he is visiting with the leaders of many nations," she added. "So I would rather that he take the forefront."
• "I'm infuriated and frustrated by the administration's seeming surrender and betrayal of Ukraine," said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) "I imagine that view will find a lot of friends among the Europeans who have committed so much to this fight."

The Senate voted Wednesday to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as President Trump's director of national intelligence, largely along party lines.

Why it matters: It's a big win for the president's team, which worked hard to resuscitate Gabbard's nomination when it faltered earlier this year.

• The final vote was 52-48, with former Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) the only GOP opponent.
• "When a nominee's record proves them unworthy of the highest public trust, and when their command of relevant policy falls short of the requirements of their office, the Senate should withhold its consent," McConnell said in a statement after the vote.

The big picture: Gabbard proved to be one of Trump's most controversial nominees, and the success of her confirmation was particularly questionable ahead of a committee vote earlier this month.

• The Senate Intelligence Committee approved Gabbard's nomination Feb. 4 in a razor-thin 9-8 party-line vote.
• That was after Intel Chair Tom Cotton made a concerted effort to get her through, even enlisting the help of former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) in swaying two of the panel's skeptical Republicans — Indiana's Todd Young and Maine's Susan Collins.

Zoom in: Young announced he would support Gabbard's confirmation in committee after outlining several commitments Gabbard made to win his vote.

• Those included promising not to seek a pardon for Edward Snowden, regularly updating the Senate Intel committee on her foreign travel and working with the panel to reauthorize Section 702 of FISA.
• Vice President Vance and billionaire Trump lieutenant Elon Musk also pressed Young to support Gabbard.

Zoom out: Gabbard faced tough questioning in her confirmation hearing, repeatedly refusing to call Snowden a traitor.

• Questions have also been raised about a trip she took to Syria, references she has made to conspiracy theories about U.S. bio labs in Ukraine and her history of questioning the findings of the U.S. intelligence community.
• Senators voted 52-46 on Monday to limit debate on Gabbard's nomination, paving the way for her confirmation.

Go deeper: How Tulsi Gabbard's nomination came roaring back to life

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional reporting.

During a closed-door lunch on Tuesday, two top Trump officials urged Republican senators to fast-track $175 billion in new border money.

Why it matters: The White House is turning up the heat as House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Senate GOP Leader John Thune's (R-S.D.) game of reconciliation chicken gets more hostile.

• Trump border czar Tom Homan and OMB chief Russell Vought told Republican senators that the administration is running out of money for their immigration crackdown.
• "After hearing these two gentlemen today, we're living on borrowed time," Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told reporters.
• Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Attorney General Pam Bondi also sent a letter to lawmakers asking for more border resources, per to a copy obtained by Axios and first reported by Fox News.

Between the lines: Speaker Johnson told his conference that he would not bring Graham's version of a budget reconciliation bill to the House floor — favoring "one big, beautiful bill" that would also address tax policy, Punchbowl first reported.

• Graham said he would also prefer one big bill, but the Senate and Graham's committee is "moving because we have to."
• Graham will begin marking up his bill in committee on Wednesday. It includes $150 billion for defense spending and $175 billion for the border.

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said the officials were careful not to explicitly back the House's one-bill or the Senate's two-bills strategy.

• "I do think that at some point, somebody's going to have to get the House and the Senate on the same page," Hawley added. "I assume that somebody will need to be the White House."

Zoom in: Homan and Vought stressed that they need funding to find tens of thousands of unauthorized immigrant kids who the government lost contact with after releasing them to caretakers.

• "After Tom talked about trying to find these children, half of us started to cry," Graham said.
• The White House officials also assured senators that the $175 billion in Graham's bill would be enough to follow through on Trump's border promises for the full four years.
• "They're helping make the case for why the $175 billion budget bill that Lindsey [Graham] is pushing is important," Sen. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) told Axios about the meeting.

The bottom line: "I am urging the Speaker to invite [Homan and Vought] over and let them tell the House what they told us," Graham said.

The Senate voted along party lines to move forward with Tulsi Gabbard's nomination to be President Trump's Director of National Intelligence.

Why it matters: Gabbard has proved to be one of Trump's most controversial nominees and her confirmation has at times been in question, especially ahead of a committee vote earlier this month.

• Senators voted 52-46 to limit debate on Gabbard's nomination, paving the way for a final vote later this week.
• Two senators didn't vote — Republican Thom Tillis (N.C.) and Democrat John Fetterman (Pa.).

Catch up quick: The Senate Intelligence Committee narrowly approved Gabbard's nomination Feb. 4 in a 9-8 party-line vote.

• That was after Intel Chair Tom Cotton made a concerted effort to get her through, even enlisting the help of former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) in swaying two of the panel's skeptical Republicans — Indiana's Todd Young and Maine's Susan Collins — to support Gabbard.

Zoom in: Young announced he would support Gabbard's confirmation in committee after outlining several commitments Gabbard made to win his vote.

• Those included promising not to seek a pardon for Edward Snowden, regularly updating the Senate Intel committee on her foreign travel and working with the panel to reauthorize Section 702 of FISA.
• Vice President Vance and Elon Musk also pressed Young to support Gabbard.

Zoom out: Gabbard faced tough questioning in her confirmation hearing, repeatedly refusing to call Snowden a traitor.

• Questions have also been raised about a trip she took to Syria, references she has made to conspiracy theories about U.S. bio labs in Ukraine and her history of questioning the findings of the U.S. intelligence community.

Go deeper: How Tulsi Gabbard's nomination came roaring back to life

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional reporting.

The GOP's Hill leaders are signaling their eagerness to back up Elon Musk by turning DOGE spending cuts into real legislation.

Why it matters: Musk's slash-and-burn cuts may be undone by the courts. But he's given congressional Republicans a blueprint for what's possible to cut.

• "I think that anything that DOGE does will be factored into what we do up here," Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told Axios.
• "We are going to be codifying a lot of these changes," House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told reporters Monday, "and what they've uncovered is, frankly, shocking."

Zoom in: DOGE has gone from a meme to a machine in the last three weeks, sparking lawsuits and injunctions.

• Judges have paused Musk's access to Treasury information and blocked more than 2,000 USAID employees from being put on leave.
• More court activity is expected as Musk pounces from one agency to the next in search of DEI initiatives, bureaucratic bloat and other opportunities for spending cuts.

Zoom out: Republicans need to do some serious unifying if they want to pass party-line spending cuts. Ten GOP senators and 34 House members voted in December against the government funding stopgap.

• But DOGE-inspired cuts might help get the House's rowdy Freedom Caucus and senators like Rand Paul (R-Ky.) to vote yes on some bills — as long as specific cuts don't create new GOP "no" votes.

Reality check: Even if the House can pass anything, outside of budget reconciliation, the Senate GOP will need Democratic votes to overcome the 60-vote filibuster for spending bills.

• Democrats are rallying in opposition to President Trump's spending freeze — and are threatening to allow a government shutdown next month.

The bottom line: Musk's appeals to Congress on deep cuts could force Republicans to justify tough cuts to popular programs, and Democrats to defend funding some unpopular ones.

Senate Republicans are running a hurry-up offense ahead of Super Bowl Sunday that's putting House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on his heels.

Why it matters: The House is unlikely to reach an agreement on taxes and spending cuts before Johnson and President Trump meet in a New Orleans skybox on Sunday, aides and lawmakers conceded today.

• That gives Senate Republicans all weekend — and a dinner Friday at Mar-a-Lago — to make their case for a two-bill approach, while House Republicans still debate how much to cut from the federal budget.
• The latest deadline for Johnson's one-bill plan is "probably closer to Monday," he said this morning.

🚨 "The time to act is now, and Senate Republicans are ready to roll," Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said on X, backing up Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).

• Graham released a budget resolution Friday to funnel hundreds of billions into border security, energy and defense.
• "I hope the House will move forward soon, but we cannot allow this moment to pass, and we cannot let President Trump's America First Agenda stall," Graham said on X.
• "This targeted bill on the border, energy, and national security is uniting," Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) posted about the plan. "We're ready to go."

Zoom in: Graham has scheduled committee hearings next week to debate and vote on the resolution, on Wednesday and Thursday.

• Graham argued his bill will provide border funds faster, saying border czar Tom Homan "is running out of the funds necessary" to keep up the Trump team's immigration crackdown.
• The Senate plan offsets the $342 billion in new spending.

Between the lines: Johnson is still claiming he's making progress.

• "It's going very well, I'm very excited about where we are and the fact that we're going to be moving this forward," he said.
• Graham's committee timeline will give Johnson and House Republicans until midweek to pass their own resolution.

The bottom line: Even if Graham's plan makes it through the Senate, there's no guarantee the House will be on board when its turn comes.

• Graham was careful not to antagonize Johnson, who can't afford to lose more than one GOP vote on anything these days.