The lights may be starting to go out for NASA's Space Launch System program.

On Wednesday, one of the Republican space policy leaders most consistently opposed to commercial heavy lift rockets over the last decade—as an alternative to NASA's large SLS rocket—has changed his mind.

"We need an off-ramp for reliance on the SLS," said Scott Pace, director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University, in written testimony. He issued the statement in advance of a hearing about US space policy, and the future of NASA's Artemis Moon program, before a subcommittee of the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology.

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It was only a few days ago that a certain fear-mongering website named, ahem, Ars Technica published an article about the prospect of a killer asteroid striking the planet Earth in the year 2032.

At the time, the odds of a small asteroid first discovered late last year—and designated 2024 YR4—hitting us were non-negligible. There was an estimated 3.2 percent chance that the large rock would impact the planet eight years from now.

In the days since then, the odds have fallen dramatically. Based on the latest estimate from NASA, there is now just a 0.0039 percent chance. Put another way, the odds of impact are 1 in 26,000.

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In a remarkable statement Thursday, SpaceX founder Elon Musk said the International Space Station should be deorbited "as soon as possible."

This comment from Musk will surely set off a landmine in the global space community, with broad implications. And it appears to be no idle comment from Musk who, at times, indulges in deliberately provocative posts on the social media network X that he owns.

However, that does not seem to be the case here.

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In a remarkable statement Thursday, SpaceX founder Elon Musk said the International Space Station should be deorbited "as soon as possible."

This comment from Musk will surely set off a landmine in the global space community, with broad implications. And it appears to be no idle comment from Musk who, at times, indulges in deliberately provocative posts on the social media network X that he owns.

However, that does not seem to be the case here.

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A little over a month after SpaceX's large Starship launch ended in an explosion over several Caribbean islands, the company is preparing its next rocket for a test flight.

According to a notice posted by the Federal Aviation Administration, the eighth test flight of the Starship vehicle could take place as early as February 26 from the Starbase launch site in South Texas. The launch window extends from 5:30 pm local time (23:30 UTC) to 7:09 pm (01:09 UTC).

Company sources confirmed that this launch date is plausible, but it's also possible that the launch could slip a day or two to Thursday or Friday of next week.

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The likelihood of 2024 YR4 colliding with the our planet in 2032 have ticked up to over 3 percent. Is it time to start worrying?

An asteroid discovered late last year is continuing to stir public interest as its odds of striking planet Earth less than eight years from now continue to increase.

Two weeks ago, when Ars first wrote about the asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies estimated a 1.9 percent chance of an impact with Earth in 2032. NASA's most recent estimate has the likelihood of a strike increasing to 3.2 percent. Now that's not particularly high, but it's also not zero.

Naturally the prospect of a large ball of rock tens of meters across striking the planet is a little worrisome. This is large enough to cause localized devastation near its impact site, likely on the order of the Tunguska event of 1908, which leveled some 500 square miles (1,287 square kilometers) of forest in remote Siberia.

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Unlike workers at many other federal agencies this week, probationary employees at NASA were not terminated on Tuesday.

For much of the day employees at the space agency anticipated a directive from the White House Office of Personnel Management to fire these employees, but it never came. "We were on pins and needles throughout the day," said one senior official at Johnson Space Center in Houston on Tuesday afternoon.

However, by late in the afternoon, several field center directors received confirmation from the White House that their probationary employees—of which there are more than 1,000 across the agency's headquarters and 10 field centers—would not be terminated. NASA had sought exemptions for all of these employees, who comprise about 6 percent of NASA's workforce. Ars could not confirm whether the reprieve applied to some field centers or all 10 of them.

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Spread across NASA's headquarters and 10 field centers, which dot the United States from sea to sea, the space agency has had a workforce of nearly 18,000 civil servants.

However, by the end of today, that number will have shrunk by about 10 percent since the beginning of the second Trump administration four weeks ago. And the world's preeminent space agency may still face significant additional cuts.

According to sources, about 750 employees at NASA accepted the "fork in the road" offer to take deferred resignation from the space agency later this year. This sounds like a lot of people, but generally about 1,000 people leave the agency every year, so effectively, many of these people might just be getting paid to leave jobs they were already planning to exit from.

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The likely next leader of NASA, private astronaut and pilot Jared Isaacman, has kept a low profile since the announcement last year that he was President Donald Trump's choice to lead the space agency.

This is understandable, as Isaacman must still be confirmed by the US Senate. No date has yet been put forward for a confirmation hearing before the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, which is chaired by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.). Typically, during this interim period, nominees meet with Senators behind closed doors before their hearings and limit public comments that could put them in the hot seat during the confirmation process.

This has meant that we've heard little from the person who is in line to lead NASA over the next four years as the space agency confronts a number of issues. These include reconfiguring the Artemis Program, a potential pivot toward Mars, an aging International Space Station, Mars Sample Return, a limited pipeline of science missions, and the likelihood of budget cuts. On top of all of this there is the uncertainty and unease federal workers face as the Trump Administration scrutinizes their activities for efficiency and, in some cases, loyalty.

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The venerable late-night sketch comedy show Saturday Night Live is celebrating its 50th anniversary season this year. NBC will air a special on Sunday evening featuring current and former cast members.

I've long been a big fan of the show, since I was a kid in the late 1980s watching cast members such as Phil Hartman, Dana Carvey, and Jan Hooks. By then, the show was more than a decade old. It had already spawned huge Hollywood stars like Chevy Chase and Eddie Murphy and had gone through some near-death experiences as it struggled to find its footing.

The show most definitely does not appeal to some people. When I asked the Ars editorial team to share their favorite sketches, a few writers told me they had never found Saturday Night Live funny, hadn't watched it in decades, or just did not get the premise of the show. Others, of course, love the show's ability to poke fun at the cultural and political zeitgeist of the moment.

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Welcome to Edition 7.31 of the Rocket Report! The unfortunate news this week concerns layoffs. Blue Origin announced a 10 percent cut in its workforce as the company aims to get closer to breaking even. More broadly in the space industry, there is unease about what the Trump administration's cuts to NASA and other federal agencies might mean.

We don't have all the answers, but it does seem that NASA is likely to be subject to less deep cuts than some other parts of the government. We should find out sometime in March when the Trump White House submits its initial budget request. Congress, of course, will have the final say.

As always, we welcome reader submissions, and if you don't want to miss an issue, please subscribe using the box below (the form will not appear on AMP-enabled versions of the site). Each report will include information on small-, medium-, and heavy-lift rockets as well as a quick look ahead at the next three launches on the calendar.

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A little less than a month after the successful debut of its New Glenn rocket, Blue Origin's workforce will be trimmed by 10 percent.

The cuts were announced during an all-hands meeting on Thursday morning led by the rocket company's chief executive, Dave Limp. During the gathering, Limp cited "business strategy" as the rationale for making the cuts to a workforce of more than 10,000 people.

Blue Origin was founded by Jeff Bezos in 2000, and he continues to provide an estimated $2 billion in funding annually to support its operations.

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In the mid- and upper-latitudes on Earth, during the early evening hours, thin and wispy clouds can sometimes be observed in the upper atmosphere.

These clouds have an ethereal feel and consist of ice crystals in very high clouds at the edge of space, typically about 75 to 85 km above the surface. The clouds are still in sunlight while the ground is darkening after the Sun sets. Meteorologists call these noctilucent clouds, which essentially translates to "night-shining" clouds.

There is no reason why these clouds could not also exist on Mars, which has a thin atmosphere. And about two decades ago, the European Space Agency's Mars Express orbiter observed noctilucent clouds on Mars and went on to make a systematic study.

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After a relatively short period of just two and a half years, the chief of the Russian space corporation Roscosmos, Yuri Borisov, was dismissed from his position last week. The Kremlin announced he would be replaced by 39-year-old former Deputy Minister of Transport Dmitry Bakanov.

An economist by training, Bakanov has worked in the past for a satellite communications company named Gonets. However, he is largely an unknown entity to NASA as the US space agency continues to partner with Russia on the operation of the International Space Station.

NASA had developed a reasonably good relationship with Borisov, who brought a much more stable presence to the NASA-Roscosmos relationship after his pugnacious predecessor, Dmitry Rogozin, was sacked in 2022.

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The primary contractor for the Space Launch System rocket, Boeing, is preparing for the possibility that NASA cancels the long-running program.

On Friday, with less than an hour's notice, David Dutcher, Boeing's vice president and program manager for the SLS rocket, scheduled an all-hands meeting for the approximately 800 employees working on the program. The apparently scripted meeting lasted just six minutes, and Dutcher didn't take questions.

During his remarks, Dutcher said Boeing's contracts for the rocket could end in March and that the company was preparing for layoffs in case the contracts with the space agency were not renewed. "Cold and scripted" is how one person described Dutcher's demeanor.

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© Trevor Mahlmann

Sometime during the next several weeks, the directors of federal agencies will receive a draft version of President Trump's budget request for the coming fiscal year, which begins on October 1. This "passback review" is a standard part of the federal budgeting process which ends in Congress writing a budget and the president signing it into law.

The budget request will be the first of President Trump's second term, and it will offer a clear window into the priorities of his new administration. Although widespread cuts are expected for much of the government's discretionary spending, the outlook for the National Science Foundation appears to be especially grim.

During an emotional all-hands meeting on Tuesday, the agency's assistant director for engineering, Susan Margulies, told agency employees to expect between a quarter and a half of its staff to be laid off within the coming months, E&E News reported.

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NASA should soon announce a new plan for the return of two of its astronauts, Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, to Earth as early as March 19. This is about two weeks earlier than the existing public timeline for their flight home from the International Space Station.

Bringing the two astronauts back to Earth next month will require some shuffling of spacecraft here on the ground and a delay of the privately operated Axiom-4 mission to the International Space Station to later in the spring.

Wilmore and Williams flew to the station on Boeing's Starliner in June 2024. The plight of "Butch and Suni," as they are often referred to, was a major story in the space community last summer after their Starliner spacecraft experienced significant propulsion issues before docking. NASA ultimately decided the safest course would be for the pair to return home on a SpaceX Dragon vehicle, and launched the Crew-9 mission last September with two empty seats. Thus, Butch and Suni's ride home has been docked to the station since last fall.

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The US space agency said Wednesday it will host a live Twitch stream from the International Space Station on February 12.

NASA, which has 1.3 million followers on the live-streaming video service, has previously broadcast events on its Twitch channel. However, this will be the first time the agency has created an event specifically for Twitch.

During the live event, beginning at 11:45 am ET (16:45 UTC), viewers will hear from NASA astronaut Don Pettit, who is currently on board the space station, as well as Matt Dominick, who recently returned to Earth after the agency’s Crew-8 mission. Viewers will have the opportunity to ask questions about living in space.

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Last year was not a good one for a lunar lander company based in Pittsburgh named Astrobotic.

In January, the company's first spacecraft finally launched after years of delays, carrying dozens of payloads, scientific instruments, and time capsules. But within hours of launch, the Peregrine spacecraft developed a propellant leak in its propulsion system. Although the Astrobotic engineering team fought valiantly, they could not control the leak long enough to attempt a lunar landing. Instead, operators returned it to Earth's atmosphere, where it burned up.

This immediately raised questions about Astrobotic's next mission. Its second spacecraft, Griffin, would be larger. The company had received a large "task order" from NASA to use this lander to deliver the VIPER robotic rover to the south pole of the Moon in 2025 worth more than $300 million. However, NASA officials were concerned that, after Peregrine's problems, the significantly more ambitious Griffin lander might fail.

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