Every quarter since ChatGPT's debut, Nvidia's earnings release has tied a knot in Silicon Valley's gut as investors wait for the numbers that will prolong the AI boom — or end it.

Why it matters: It's risky when any industry hangs so much of its hopes on one company's results, and Nvidia's enviable record of beating expectations means the slightest faltering could trigger a rout.

Driving the news: Today, markets await the chipmaker's first report since the arrival of DeepSeek's latest model last month cast a brief shadow over Nvidia's glow.

• DeepSeek rivaled the industry's most advanced AI models in a cheaply trained open-source package.
• That suggested the long-term demand for Nvidia's powerful but costly chips might be lower than projected.

Yes, but: Tech giants and startups in the U.S. and around the globe continue to pour hundreds of billions into AI infrastructure, new model training and data centers.

• All those projects keep orders flowing to Nvidia, which not only continues to lead the market for high-performing chips but also controls an ecosystem of supporting software tools that help AI makers optimize their products.

The big picture: There are three broader reasons to think that Nvidia could disappoint investors, if not this week then eventually.

1. The market is overconcentrated.

• The S&P 500's incredible run the last two years has been driven by gains in the so-called Magnificent 7 stocks, led by Nvidia (and also including Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Google, Amazon and Tesla).
• The Magnificent 7 accounted for more than half of the S&P's gains in 2023 and 2024, and now makes up more than 30% of the index's total market capitalization.
• By one key metric, the market was more concentrated in late 2024 than ever before — including during the dot-com bubble.

2. Demand for AI remains elusive.

• Nvidia's astonishing market ride rests on the assumption that AI will be the tech industry's next universal platform and that demand for AI products and services will be massive.
• So far, although ChatGPT and its rivals show healthy growth in usage, businesses and consumers haven't always embraced the tools. Real-world applications beyond a few specialized fields like software programming and customer support have yet to take off.
• If that doesn't change, the AI industry — along with its leading toolmaker, Nvidia — could face a sobering correction.

3. The AI chip market is uniquely vulnerable to geopolitical risk.

• That's because Nvidia only designs its chips. They're manufactured in Taiwan by TSMC.
• Taiwan has long faced the danger of an invasion or blockade by China, which has claimed the island for decades.
• Trump may have given Beijing reason to doubt he would step in to protect Taiwan. Among other remarks, Trump lamented during the campaign that Taiwan "wants protection" but "they stole our chip business."

The other side: Nvidia could keep outperforming expectations for a long time.

• A bad quarter for the company would also be a disaster for the market in the short term, but not necessarily for Nvidia's long-term outlook.
• Even if the AI bubble pops, the chipmaker would remain an incredibly valuable repository of intellectual property, design skills and research power.
• Short-term investors might take a bath, but the company would live to thrive again.

The bottom line: Silicon Valley's 75-year history has been one long cycle of booms and busts. With AI it shows every sign of continuing that pattern.

Apple on Monday morning announced plans to invest more than $500 billion in the U.S. and hire 20,000 people over the next four years, with expansion and construction planned from coast to coast.

• The new jobs will focus on research and development, silicon engineering, software development, and AI and machine learning.
• Apple plans to greatly expand chip and server manufacturing in the U.S., plus skills development for students and workers across the country.

Why it matters: Apple's announcement — which the company calls its "largest-ever spend commitment" — is precisely the kind of win President Trump has been looking for with his push to move manufacturing back to the U.S.

• Apple's new investment — much of it in red states — lets Trump say to other companies: Apple can do it. Why can't (or won't) you?

Apple CEO Tim Cook said in the announcement: "We are bullish on the future of American innovation, and we're proud to build on our longstanding U.S. investments with this $500 billion commitment to our country's future."

• "From doubling our Advanced Manufacturing Fund [from $5 billion to $10 billion], to building advanced technology in Texas, we're thrilled to expand our support for American manufacturing," Cook added. "And we'll keep working with people and companies across this country to help write an extraordinary new chapter in the history of American innovation."

The backstory: Trump met with Cook on Thursday in the Oval Office. Then Trump got so excited that he revealed the plans prematurely, saying on-camera while meeting with governors that Cook is "investing hundreds of billions of dollars. I hope he's announced it — I hope I didn't announce it, but what the hell? All I do is tell the truth — that's what he told me. Now he has to do it, right?"

• "He is investing hundreds of billions of dollars and others, too," Trump continued. "We will have a lot of chipmakers coming in, a lot of automakers coming in. They stopped two plants in Mexico that were ... starting construction. They just stopped them — they're going to build them here instead, because they don't want to pay the tariffs. Tariffs are amazing."

The big picture: Apple says it now supports nearly 3 million jobs across the U.S. through direct employment, work with suppliers and manufacturers, and developer jobs in the iOS app economy.

• Apple already works with thousands of suppliers across all 50 states, including 24 factories in 12 states.
• Apple's U.S. Advanced Manufacturing Fund has supported projects in 13 states, helping build local businesses and train workers.

Reality check: Apple made a similar announcement four years ago. In 2021, Apple committed $430 billion in U.S. investments and 20,000 new jobs across the country over five years — including a new campus in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, where development was paused last year.

• Apple says it has worked with North Carolina Gov. Josh Stein (D) and the North Carolina Department of Commerce to extend the project's timeline. Apple says it continues to grow its teams in the Tar Heel State — both at corporate offices in Raleigh and at a data center in Catawba, where the company has exceeded planned investments.

Zoom in: Here's a rundown of Apple's new expansion plans:

• Texas: New advanced AI server manufacturing factory near Houston. The 250,000-square-foot server manufacturing facility, slated to open in 2026, "will create thousands of jobs," Apple's announcement says. "Previously manufactured outside the U.S., the servers that will soon be assembled in Houston play a key role in powering Apple Intelligence, and are the foundation of Private Cloud Compute, which combines powerful AI processing with the most advanced security architecture ever deployed at scale for AI cloud computing. The servers bring together years of R&D by Apple engineers."
• Michigan: New Apple Manufacturing Academy in Detroit. "Apple engineers, along with experts from top universities such as Michigan State, will consult with small- and medium-sized businesses on implementing AI and smart manufacturing techniques," the announcement says. "The academy will also offer free in-person and online courses, with a skills development curriculum that teaches workers vital skills like project management and manufacturing process optimization."
•  California: Construction of a state-of-the-art campus is underway in Culver City, an entertainment enclave in L.A. County. In San Diego, a 4,000-member team will continue to grow.
• Arizona: Apple-designed Apple Silicon will be produced at TSMC's Fab 21 semiconductor plant in Phoenix.
• Washington state: Apple has doubled the number of team members in Seattle over the past three years to 2,400+, and will keep growing.
• Operations will expand in Mesa, Arizona ... Reno, Nevada ... Prineville, Oregon ... and Maiden, North Carolina (outside Charlotte).

Go deeper: Apple announcement.

Multiple agencies and unions have told federal workers not to respond to a new email demanding that they account for their work over the last week — despite Elon Musk's threat they'll lose their jobs if they don't.

Why it matters: As much as Musk's DOGE effort has disrupted the federal government so far, there's been relatively little tangible internal pushback — until now.

• The high-stakes stand-off could reshape the federal workforce over the next couple of days and will test the depth of President Trump's support for Musk's slash-and-burn campaign.

Catch up quick: Musk posted to X on Saturday afternoon that all federal employees would get an email asking them to explain what they'd accomplished this week.

• Failure to respond, he said, would be tantamount to resignation. It followed a Trump post to Truth Social early Saturday calling on Musk to get more aggressive with his DOGE project.
• The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) sent the email Saturday afternoon, telling people they had until 11:59 p.m. ET on Monday to respond. (The email did not include Musk's or-else threat.)

Zoom out: Two of the largest unions representing federal workers, the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) and the National Treasury Employees Union (NTEU), told their members to be cautious responding, or not to respond.

• "AFGE will challenge any unlawful terminations of our members and federal employees across the country," union president Everett Kelley said in a statement Saturday night.
• Kelley sent a letter to OPM acting director Charles Ezell on Sunday, demanding the email be withdrawn by that night. The AFGE also sent guidance to members Sunday saying they should respond if ordered to do so by their agencies.

Zoom in: Beyond the unions, a number of federal departments and agencies also appear to have told employees not to respond.

• The Department of Defense told its employees that only the department is responsible for "reviewing the performance of its personnel" and it will undertake employee reviews "in accordance with its own procedures." Employees were told to disregard the OPM email.
• NBC reported that new FBI director Kash Patel told employees not to answer the email.
• Government Executive reported that NOAA and NSA employees were told the same.
• The New York Times reported that State Department employees were also told not to respond.

OPM's email led to chaos and confusion inside agencies.

For example, Employees at the Department of Homeland Security were told not to respond to the Musk directive and that management would handle it, per an email viewed by Axios, from R.D. "Tex" Alles, deputy under secretary for Management at the agency.

• But the email conflicted with guidance on how to respond — while keeping classified information safe — given earlier so some DHS workers from a mid level manager, also viewed by Axios.

The manager also listed some examples of "inappropriate" responses that appeared to mock Musk, including:

• "Drafted an IFR to implement the Martian Exclusion Act of 2040" and "Provided ICE operational plans for their raid next week on the Martian gang that took over Coolidge Hotel in Musktopia. Mars. Etc"
• The weekend guidance emails are creating chaos and in some cases real fear and anxiety for federal employees, one worker said.

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service has instructed staff to reply to the OPM email in coordination with their supervisor, according to an email shared with Axios.

For the record: An OPM spokesperson reiterated that the office was making the request, but said agencies will determine any next steps.

• The White House did not immediately respond to requests for clarification on the timing of those determinations — before the deadline to reply, as some have already done; or after replies have been received.

What we're watching: It remains unclear what will actually happen if employees don't respond.

• Legal action is possible, if not likely, on Monday to try and block any response.
• There's also the unanswered question of what OPM and agencies will do with all these emails, which could end up numbering in the millions.

Go deeper: Americans wary of Elon Musk and DOGE, recent polls show

Editor's note: This story has been updated with further details on AFGE's communication with members.

Andrew Freedman contributed reporting.

Are you a federal employee with a tip? You can reach Emily Peck confidentially on Signal @emilyrpeck.71.

Elon Musk on Saturday said all federal employees will be required to send an email reporting what they accomplished in the last week — and failing to do so will be considered a resignation.

Why it matters: It's a page straight out of the playbook Musk used when he took over Twitter, making workers justify themselves to stay employed.

• The difference is that these are Civil Service employees, many with union protection — to say nothing of a Congress increasingly ill at ease with the blowback over how they're being fired.

Catch up quick: Musk posted his demand to X on Saturday afternoon.

• "Consistent with President (Trump's) instructions, all federal employees will shortly receive an email requesting to understand what they got done last week. Failure to respond will be taken as a resignation," he wrote.
• It follows a Trump post to Truth Social early Saturday morning, calling on Musk to get more aggressive with DOGE's government-slashing efforts.

Zoom out: Musk's post appears to mark the start of the next phase of DOGE's efforts to slash the federal workforce, following tens of thousands of terminations of probationary employees in recent days.

What they're saying: The president of the largest union for federal employees, the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE), was quick to blast Musk's demand.

• "It is cruel and disrespectful to hundreds of thousands of veterans who are wearing their second uniform in the civil service to be forced to justify their job duties to the this out-of-touch, privileged, unelected billionaire who has never performed one single hour of honest public service in his life," Everett Kelley said in a statement.
• "AFGE will challenge any unlawful terminations of our members and federal employees across the country."

For the record: The White House did not immediately respond to an email for comment on Musk's post.

War-torn Ukraine sits on significant reserves of rare earth minerals critical to the world's most cutting-edge technologies.

Why it matters: The U.S. wants them — or else. Talks are ongoing after the Trump administration made a revised proposal for a minerals deal, Axios' Barak Ravid and Marc Caputo scooped.

The big picture: Ukraine's willingness, or lack thereof, to share its minerals and the revenue from their sale may determine whether or not the U.S. ends all support for the country, as its war with Russia nears the start of its fourth year.

What are rare earth minerals?

Context: Rare earths, as the U.S. Department of Energy explains, are a series of elements that are crucial to modern electronics, batteries and the like.

• The U.S. has them, but not nearly in the quantities of some other countries.
• The Pentagon has already spent hundreds of millions of dollars trying to establish a rare earths supply chain, with limited impact so far.
• Most of the world's supply and production is in China, which is increasingly cracking down on exports.

What rare earth minerals does Ukraine have?

By the numbers: Ukraine has about 5% of the world's total reserves of critical rare earths, per UN data.

Zoom out: Ukraine, according to its national Geological Survey, has largely untapped reserves of minerals like tantalum, beryllium and niobium.

• Those minerals have applications in everything from capacitors in electronic devices to the brakes on jet aircraft.
• In total, the Ukrainian government estimates it is sitting on more than 2.6 billion tons of reserves of these crucial minerals — and some observers estimate that stockpile could be worth up to $11.5 trillion.
• The country also has significant reserves of other critical minerals like titanium and lithium.

What does the U.S. want from Ukraine?

Zoom in: As NBC and others have reported, Treasury secretary Scott Bessent offered Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky a deal earlier this month: Give the U.S. 50% ownership of Ukraine's rare earths in exchange for U.S. investment in Ukraine.

• The Ukrainian side rejected that offer, but talks continued behind the scenes even as Trump engaged Zelensky in a public war of words.
• A source with knowledge tells Axios several of Zelensky's aides have encouraged him to sign the updated proposal to avoid a further clash with Trump.

What to watch: Whether the sides will strike a new deal, which could be key to changing the direction of the U.S.-Russia talks on ending the war.

The share of investors who think U.S. stocks are overvalued is at a 24-year high, according to a new BofA Global Research survey out Tuesday.

Why it matters: As well as U.S. stocks have done in the last couple of years, there's more concern than ever about how highly concentrated the market is, and what happens if the "Magnificent 7" driving those gains lose their luster.

The big picture: 89% of respondents to BofA's monthly Global Fund Manager Survey said U.S. stocks are overvalued, the highest in data going back to April 2001.

• The "U.S. exceptionalism" trade, as BofA calls it — conviction in a combination of strong U.S. stocks and a strong dollar — fell in February from a three-year high in January, suggesting confidence has peaked.
• "Global equities" now rank as the asset class expected to perform best this year, per the survey, ahead of gold, U.S. stocks, bitcoin, and government bonds.

By the numbers: Through Friday, the MSCI World ex USA Index —which captures the world's largest developed stock markets other than the United States — was up 8.2% this year, doubling the performance of the S&P 500.

Yes, but: Investors are bullish overall, even if they're not in love with domestic stocks.

• Cash on hand among survey respondents is at the lowest level in 15 years, a strong sign investors are putting their money to work.
• Fears of a global recession fell to a three-year low in the survey, and overall sentiment rose slightly.

As the nation marks a turbulent Black History Month, the economic state of Black America has much improved over the last few decades but is still nowhere near parity.

Why it matters: Economic hardships define people, families and communities for generations; breaking those cycles is the key to broader prosperity.

By the numbers: These are some of the most important indicators that tell the story of the Black community's financial progress and challenges.

• It's worth noting that some of this data is already becoming harder to come by, as the Trump administration purges various federal datasets that touch on issues like race.
• In some charts below, we look at the statistics solely for the Black community, while in others we compare to some or all races and ethnicities — in part to illustrate just how stark some of the gaps are.

The unemployment gap

The gap between the Black and general unemployment rates is less pronounced than in previous decades.

Yes, but: Disparities in the workforce abound from state to state and across regions of the countries. The gap is quite narrow in some places, like Delaware and Maryland, but in places like Kentucky, systemic racial barriers continue to hold people back.

The wealth gap

Black people consistently hold a tiny sliver of the overall wealth of the United States.

Why it matters: Non-Hispanic whites account for about 62% of Americans, but control 84% of the nation's wealth, per the Federal Reserve.

• Black Americans, who represent more than 12% of the population, own only 3.4% of the country's wealth, per the Federal Reserve. That's down sharply from 4.7% in 2017.

Follow the money: Black Americans had just $313 billion in stocks and mutual funds as of the third quarter of 2024, up a mere 3.4% in seven years.

• White Americans, by contrast, have $41 trillion of stock-market wealth — up 91% over the same time period.

The bottom line: On an absolute level, in nominal dollars, Black Americans have more wealth than ever — some $5.4 trillion in total. But their share of the total is not only tiny but also shrinking.

Business ownership

The share of U.S. businesses with Black owners has increased steadily in recent years, though it's still relatively small compared to the share for white or Hispanic owners.

By the numbers: The U.S. Census Bureau's Annual Business Survey shows 3.31% of all U.S. businesses were Black-owned in 2022, the last year for which data is available.

• That's an increase from 2.16% just five years ago.
• Over that time, Black-owned businesses grew 57%, far outpacing total business growth of just over 2%.

Workforce representation

The Black community is under-represented in the private sector, but does somewhat better when it comes to government employment.

Yes, but: That also means the Trump administration's efforts to shrink the federal workforce could disproportionately affect the community.

Banking access

Black households continue to be unbanked (in the traditional sense) at a higher rate than any other race or ethnicity, per FDIC data.

The big picture: While the rates have improved steadily, a double-digit percentage of Black households still don't have bank accounts.

Yes, but: A major caveat here is that the FDIC has a conservative view of what counts as being "banked" (a member of the household has to have a checking or savings account at a federally insured bank or credit union).

• Many people have alternative products, like Cash App, that offer many of the same features, albeit with fees and other limits.

Educational attainment

The share of all Bachelor's degrees awarded to Black people in recent years has held steady — even as other ethnic groups posted robust gains.

By the numbers: Of all Bachelor's degrees awarded in the 2021-2022 school year, 10.4% went to Black students, down from 10.8% in the 2012-2013 year.

• Over that same period, the share that went to Asian students rose to 8.9% from 7%, while for Hispanic students it rose to 17% from 10.5%.
• The share of degrees awarded to white students fell sharply, but Black students didn't participate in that offsetting growth.

Homeownership

There is a massive gap between homeownership rates for Black and white households, one that is not narrowing appreciably.

Why it matters: Homeownership is how most Americans build wealth and pass it on to the next generation.

Household income

The median household income for Black families has risen steadily over the last 20 years but is still nowhere near that of white households.

By the numbers: While the growth trends are roughly the same, the median household income for a Black family in 2023 was less than that for a white family in 2014.

Maternal mortality

Maternal mortality rates in the Black community were significantly higher than in other communities — and now they are increasing while rates in different groups are declining.

The big picture: The long-term costs of mothers dying in and near childbirth are devastating.

• The immediate financial impacts are immense — funerals, travel, etc.
• However, the long-term destructive impact on families and their ability to grow and thrive is far worse.

Medical debt

Those high rates of maternal mortality contribute, at least in part, to medical debt. Black adults carry such debts at much higher rates than any other ethnicity — roughly one in every eight, per Census data.

The big picture: Medical debt contributes in some way to about three in every five consumer bankruptcies and about half of all debt collections, leaving the Black community at much higher risk.

President Trump said Saturday the U.S. will treat value added tax (VAT) systems the same as tariffs, for purposes of helping to calculate the reciprocal levies on other countries he ordered earlier this week.

Why it matters: At least 175 countries globally have a VAT, per the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), meaning it could impact the math on any reciprocal tariff for most nations around the world.

• The impact could be most immediate in the European Union, which has standardized value added taxes with an average rate of almost 22%.

What they're saying: "For purposes of this United States Policy, we will consider Countries that use the VAT System, which is far more punitive than a Tariff, to be similar to that of a Tariff," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

• That follows a memo he issued Thursday, ordering trade officials to study assessing reciprocal tariffs on any country that levies the import of U.S. goods at a higher rate than the U.S. charges that country's goods.
• Part of the study's task is defining a system to calculate the appropriate levies for each country, taking into account factors like the regulatory regime, the business climate, existing tariffs, and whether there's a VAT in place.
• The end result of any proposed system is likely to be tailored on a country-by-country basis, and more complex than a simple "you charge X so we charge X back."
• The study is due by April 1.

The intrigue: When he signed the Thursday memo, Trump told reporters he felt VATs were worse than tariffs.

• That immediately sparked fears of a trade war with Europe, particularly given Trump's recent promises to eventually target the EU with tariffs.
• Tax analysts generally argue that the European VAT isn't much of a burden on U.S. exporters.

What is a VAT?

Between the lines: The idea of a value added tax, or VAT, dates to France in the early 1950s.

• Broadly speaking, it is a consumption tax, paid by the consumer.
• The OECD describes it as "a tax collected at all stages of the processes of production and distribution of goods and services."

VAT rates vary around the world, and in many countries different rates are charged for different categories of products.

• In some places, like Hungary, they can be as high as 27%.

How does VAT work?

Zoom out: Generally, the buyer of a good or service pays the VAT to a seller, who remits that payment to the tax authorities.

• The EU's primer on VAT explains it as a multi-stage process.
• The creator of a good or service collects VAT from whoever they sell their product to. That creator in turn subtracts the VAT they paid to whoever provided them their raw materials.
• What's left is the tax paid to the government.
• It differs from the sales tax most Americans are used to paying, in that with VAT everyone in the process pays a piece of the final taxable amount, and the VAT is built into the price of an item.

Go deeper: Trump's reciprocal tariff threat raises huge unknowns

The U.S. struck deals with Canada and Mexico on Monday to delay potentially devastating tariffs for a month.

Why it matters: The tariffs, had they gone into effect, could have had massive impacts on the economies of all three nations, potentially triggering inflation, recessions and a spiraling trade war.

• It marks the second time in this presidency Trump vowed a massive and disruptive tariff on a long-time ally, only to quickly freeze it after gaining some concessions.

Catch up quick: Trump originally signed the tariff orders Saturday — 25% on Canada and Mexico (10% on energy), and 10% on China as well.

• They were due to take effect at 12:01am ET Tuesday.

Zoom out: Trump announced a deal with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum via Truth Social post early Monday, and in the afternoon Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau confirmed a deal on social media as well.

• Mexico will send 10,000 troops to the border to help control the flow of drugs, and in return the U.S. will help to prevent gun trafficking to cartels.
• The deal with Canada, per Trudeau, includes more border personnel and hundreds of millions of dollars in anti-fentanyl enforcement.
• Both the Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso rallied significantly against the U.S. dollar, which is strengthened by tariffs.

Zoom in: Trump took both deals as wins, touting them on Truth Social and promising further negotiations over the next month — though he did not say what the final goals of those talks would be.

Between the lines: Sheinbaum's move in particular came as little surprise to White House officials, one of whom told Axios on Sunday that a show of force at the border would positively impact Trump.

• "If she sends troops, it's a sign Mexico takes the president seriously," the official said.
• As for Trudeau, the official said, "bust some fentanyl labs. Make progress."

The big picture: The economic consequences of the tariffs could have been profound for all three countries.

• Economists feared they could have plunged both Mexico and Canada into recession, while American consumers stood to face a significant increase in costs and erosion of purchasing power.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with new details on the tariff deals.

Economists almost universally agree that the tariffs imposed by President Trump will cost the average American household hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars every year in higher goods costs.

Why it matters: It's not yet clear those households can, or will, pay it.

The big picture: In a matter of days, we're all going to learn how much pricing power is left in U.S. supply chains — from the wholesalers, to the distributors, all the way through to retail.

• Whether the extra 25% levy on avocados at the Mexican border turns into a 25% hike on your Super Bowl guacamole will depend on a range of factors and business decisions.

State of play: At every step of the process, everyone who touches that avocado (or any other tariffed good) will ask themselves two questions:

• Can my profit margins absorb — or survive — any of this price increase?
• Will customers accept any of that price increase, or just stop buying?

The intrigue: Now ask those same questions at tens of thousands of businesses, thousands of times every day, selling everything from TVs to tires and avocados to amplifiers.

By the numbers: There are short-term and long-term costs at play.

• As Trump's tariffs first hit, the Tax Foundation estimates they will be an effective tax of more than $830 per U.S. household this year.
• Next year, the Tax Policy Center says, the full impact of the tariffs will reduce consumers' average after-tax income by 1%.
• In the long term, economies re-arrange themselves to account for the new order, and central banks react to the inflationary pressures. The Budget Lab at Yale University forecasts even after all that, the average U.S. household will still lose about $1,000 of purchasing power a year.
• Over the medium to long term, the Budget Lab estimated the biggest persistent price increases would be in natural gas (think heating and cooking), and the broad category of "computer, electronic and optical" (cell phones, among other things).

It may not take that long, either — as the well-known free trade expert Douglas Irwin posted on Sunday, his own home heating fuel provider immediately raised their prices to match the tariff, before it had even gone into effect.

The bottom line: "The big worry for markets is that President Trump may be willing to let the U.S. take considerable economic pain in an attempt to achieve his stated goals of reducing trade deficits, bringing jobs to the U.S., and enhancing border security," BMO Wealth Management chief investment officer Yung-Yu Ma wrote Monday.

Go deeper: Trade war begins, as Trump leaves the world guessing

Gen Z men think they need to earn about 15% more to be "financially successful" than young women do, per a new study digging into the thorny question of what "making it" really means.

Why it matters: Even at a young age, the gender wage gap is driving very different perceptions of need and success.

• It also speaks to Gen Z's broad shift to the political right, as young men in particular feel disillusioned by the economy and what it offers them.

Driving the news: YPulse, a youth research organization, surveyed 1,000 people ages 13-39 and asked them "How much would you need to make as an annual salary (e.g. the money you earn at a job per year) for you to be financially successful?"

• It was prompted by a widely reported study last year, published by financial services company Empower, that showed a huge gap between Gen Z and other generations in the definition of a success-making salary.

By the numbers: The male respondents to YPulse's survey, on average, estimated they'd need a salary of $69,500 a year to feel successful.

• That's almost 16% more than the roughly $58,600 average response from women.

Between the lines: According to YPulse, the gender pay gap plays a significant role in the disparity.

• Women have suppressed expectations because they know they're likely to earn less in the workforce.
• That gender wage gap is actually widening, per Census data, and matches almost exactly the YPulse findings.

President Trump on Thursday reiterated that tariffs are coming against Canada and Mexico on Saturday, though he said the scope of those levies is still up in the air.

Why it matters: Canada and Mexico are the top U.S. trading partners, and his ongoing tariff threats have sparked fears of an economically damaging trade war.

Catch up quick: In a question-and-answer session with reporters in the Oval Office, Trump confirmed his previously stated plan to impose tariffs on Feb. 1.

• "Mexico and Canada have never been good to us on trade. They've treated us very unfairly on trade," Trump said, adding: "We don't need what they have."
• The U.S., Mexico and Canada have been joint parties to free trade agreements for decades, first NAFTA and then the USMCA.

Yes, but: The president left the door open to the possibility the tariffs would not be blanket levies on all imports; specifically, he said Canadian oil imports might be exempt.

• "We may or may not, we're going to make that determination tonight," he told reporters.

By the numbers: Trump has previously spoken of a 25% tariff on both countries.

• S&P Global Ratings, in a research report Thursday, said those levies would most affect the Mexican auto industry and the Canadian paper and rubber industries, among others.
• Both nations are expected to retaliate in some way if Trump goes ahead with his plan.
• The U.S. dollar rose to its strongest levels against the Canadian dollar in five years after his statement.

The intrigue: Trump had previously spoken of a 10% tariff on China as of Feb. 1, as well, but he wasn't as firm Thursday on proceeding with that levy.

• Instead he said he was "thinking about doing something" because of the alleged volumes of fentanyl coming to the U.S. from China.
• "China is going to end up paying a tariff also for that and we're in the process of doing that … we'll make that determination what it's going to be."

When lots of people are worried about bubble valuations in stocks or a specific sector, all it takes is a small poke to make the whole thing wobble precariously.

Why it matters: That can cost investors $1 trillion or more in a single day, as happened Monday with the global AI rout.

• It can also challenge the fundamental assumptions behind an entire economy, like the nascent Trump administration's push to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in American AI supremacy.

Zoom out: In the 1950s, the Soviets beat the U.S. into space. In 2025, China appears to have potentially beaten the U.S. to building a better AI mousetrap.

• Last week, the small Chinese upstart DeepSeek announced a new reasoning model, R1, that appears to outperform the best America has to offer, including OpenAI's ChatGPT, Anthropic's Claude and Meta's Llama.

The problem? Those companies spent billions of dollars building their models, fueling growth for companies like Nvidia, whose chips are the gold standard in that training process.

• DeepSeek spent a mere $6 million, figured out how to do it faster and more efficiently with cheaper hardware, and then released the whole thing as a free, open-source platform.

The big picture: President Trump's economic vision relies on massive growth, fueled by the AI boom that his closest advisers have sold as the country's future.

• The biggest economic announcement of his first week in office was Stargate, a five-year plan to spend $500 billion on AI infrastructure. (Complicating matters, Trump ally Elon Musk immediately cast doubt on whether anyone actually had the money to fund the project.)
• But if China can do AI better and faster at one one-thousandth of the cost, it casts a shadow on the rationale for spending that kind of money and leaves the country playing catch-up.

Follow the money: The U.S. stock market, though incredibly strong in recent years, is also fragile.

• Market concentration — that is to say, a small number of stocks driving the overall market's performance — is higher now than it's been in decades. In such an environment, it take very little to make the whole thing go south.
• Investors got a little taste of that earlier this month, when Nvidia's CEO made an off-hand comment about quantum computers, and a red-hot sector lost roughly half its value in one day.

Between the lines: In those volatile scenarios, what goes down violently can also rally just as spectacularly.

• One terrible day in markets could be the start of a horrible year, or it could simply be the market shaking out a little over-exuberance and reverting to slightly more rational valuations.
• "We will soon find out if all the claims [about DeepSeek] are true and it is my expectation that we will also learn how quickly U.S. firms can adapt," Nancy Tengler, CEO of Laffer Tengler Investments, said in a note Monday.

The intrigue: Generative AI, as a technology and an industry, has developed so quickly that there hasn't been much time for long-term thinking.

• If AI really is that powerful, and if the Chinese really have found a way to build it faster and cheaper, any company that's capable of leveraging the technology could win in the long term with more accessible growth opportunities.
• "While there is a contention that DeepSeek's efficient training methods could reduce the demand for high-end Nvidia GPUs, potentially affecting sales, it is also plausible that the more cost-effective approach will result in more demand for hardware for those looking to train proprietary models," Mark Klein, CEO of investment fund SuRo Capital, said in a note Monday.

The bottom line: One bad day in the markets isn't the end of the world.

• But it's also a wake-up call. In a 24-hour, highly interconnected world, never doubt that competition is right around the corner.

Axios' Felix Salmon contributed.

Investors worldwide stand to lose more than $1 trillion on Monday because of the sudden fear that the market-sustaining AI spending boom might have been for nothing.

Why it matters: The so-called Magnificent 7 stocks are heavily leveraged to hundreds of billions of dollars in planned AI investment — and the entire market, in turn, hangs on their performance.

Catch up quick: There's a global rout in tech stocks Monday, caused by a panic linked to the new Chinese AI platform DeepSeek.

• Last week the company released its R1 model, which competes with the world's very best from the likes of OpenAI and Anthropic — but it's free, open-source, and was developed at a tiny fraction of rivals' costs.

That's driving fears that the planned AI spending boom, with its hundreds of billions of dollars in capex on data centers and chips and power, might not be necessary if there's a way to do it faster, cheaper and better with old hardware.

By the numbers: As of 6am ET, shares of AI chip giant Nvidia were down more than 13% in premarket trading, implying a loss of more than $500 billion in market capitalization at the open.

• S&P 500 futures were pointing to a drop of more than 2%, an unusually heavy decline seen only a few times a year.
• ETFs linked to chipmakers, and shares in chip equipment manufacturers were broadly 8%-10% lower as well.

The Magnificent 7 stocks — Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla — were also down sharply in premarket trading, dragged lower by Nvidia but also the broad tech sell-off in general.

• Their implied loss in market capitalization at the open exceeds $1 trillion, with most of the stocks down 5% or more.

The bottom line: The S&P 500's incredible run the last two years has been heavily tied to the Magnificent 7 — but as a result, the market's gains are more heavily concentrated in that small handful of stocks than they've been in decades.

• In a period of such heavy concentration, what goes up can come down very, very quickly.

President Trump's threat to impose retaliatory 25% tariffs on Colombia briefly ignited fears of a further surge in already high coffee prices.

Why it matters: Beans from Colombia make up 20% of U.S. coffee imports, and the only source larger, Brazil, is struggling with weak crops after a series of weather disasters.

Catch up quick: On Sunday Trump said he would impose an emergency 25% tariffs on all goods imported from Colombia — rising to 50% in one week — after the country refused to accept two deportation flights from the U.S.

• A few hours later, the White House said it was pausing those tariffs after Colombia agreed to Trump's terms.

Zoom out: Coffee prices were already surging before the tariff threat.

• Coffee futures are up 45% in the last six months.
• Bloomberg reported last week that wholesale prices recently eclipsed all-time highs set in the late 1970s, and that it was only a matter of days to a few weeks until retail prices followed suit.
• As it stands, consumer coffee prices are already at multi-decade highs, per Consumer Price Index data.

The intrigue: Bird flu is causing record price shocks and shortages in eggs as well.

• American breakfasts risk getting a lot more expensive, even as Trump begins a new term with a promise to lower grocery prices.

Of note: The White House statement indicated Trump was prepared to use the International Economic Emergency Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA), which has not been used before to levy tariffs.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with details of the White House announcement pausing tariffs on Colombia.

Whatever Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) was supposed to be, on Monday it apparently took a new form altogether — a federal office with deep influence over the government's digital infrastructure.

Why it matters: Once explicitly envisioned as an out-of-government vehicle to cut $2 trillion from the budget, slash federal jobs, reduce waste and streamline bureaucracy, DOGE is instead starting with an apparent pivot to Musk's bread-and-butter: software development.

The big picture: "First buddy" Musk has spent the last two months promising DOGE would revolutionize the government.

• It's unclear how the new mandate to run a "Software Modernization Initiative" will deliver on that promise.
• But as the Washington Post reported this week, it does streamline the DOGE mission into what Musk was interested in all along, as opposed to the slash-and-burn his former co-leader Vivek Ramaswamy envisioned.
• As the Wall Street Journal reported, Musk's vision won out, while Ramaswamy's tendency to have a public hot take on virtually any subject wore thin his welcome in Trumpworld.

Driving the news: President Trump signed an executive order Monday night formally establishing DOGE.

• It renames the U.S. Digital Service the U.S. DOGE Service and puts it under the Executive Office of the President — effectively making a federal entity of what was previously described as an outside-of-government operation.
• "This Executive Order establishes the Department of Government Efficiency to implement the President's DOGE Agenda, by modernizing Federal technology and software to maximize governmental efficiency and productivity," the order reads.
• The new USDS will have an administrator (not yet named), who reports to the White House chief of staff. It will also have a "Temporary Organization" whose mandate of advancing Trump's agenda expires July 4, 2026 - the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.
• The order requires that each federal agency establish a DOGE Team with a team leader, an engineer, an HR specialist and an attorney.
• It also instructs that the new USDS get "full and prompt access to all unclassified agency records, software systems, and IT systems."

Flashback: The U.S. Digital Service itself is the legacy of an earlier "Silicon Valley meets Washington" effort under President Obama, when software-savvy tech experts flooded D.C. to rescue the troubled Obamacare website and stuck around to help modernize systems across government. 

• It's been lauded for its achievements, though it's not clear which (if any) of its efforts will survive the DOGE transition.

The intrigue: Musk's depth of software experience is well known.

• But he also has extensive business with the government, and intricate personal finances, complicating the prospect of working with a White House office at the same time.
• He also reportedly lacks some security clearances, which could throw a wrench into DOGE's work in some parts of government.
• DOGE is already facing lawsuits about what kinds of disclosures it does or doesn't have to make, and intended co-leader Ramaswamy (the more public advocate on the efficiency push) has left.
• The White House did not return calls for comment.

💭 Ben's thought bubble: DOGE's new structure is not what anyone expected, and raises plenty of new questions no one's yet answering: Is this all that's planned? What does Musk gain from such unfettered access to so much government data? And can better software really save $2 trillion a year?

Scott Rosenberg contributed.

The wild gyrations of the Canadian dollar offer a valuable reminder to markets: There's what other people say Donald Trump will do, and what Donald Trump says he'll do.

Why it matters: The difference between the two can be worth billions of dollars.

Catch up quick: On Monday Trump's team gave the Wall Street Journal an early look at an executive order mandating tariff investigations — but not actually imposing tariffs.

• Trump's team told the Journal he was approaching trade "in a measured way."
• The Canadian dollar promptly rallied to its strongest levels in more than a month, as the specter of Trump's long-threatened tariffs eased.

Between the lines: It was the latest in a series of leaks and trial balloons out of his camp, all aimed at shifting the narrative: Trump's not actually going nuts with tariffs, this will all be strategic and targeted.

Yes, but: Then the cameras entered the Oval Office.

• Even as Trump signed the "measured" order, he told onlookers he was considering imposing a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods on Feb. 1.
• As quickly as the C$ had rallied, it fell right back down.
• The chart above makes it clear: The U.S. dollar plunged against the Canadian dollar on the initial report, and then surged when Trump spoke. (Higher tariffs = stronger dollar, as research has shown.)

Zoom out: Anyone who follows Trump knows there's often a gulf between what people around him say he's thinking or doing, and what he ultimately says (or does).

• He knows it too, and leans into it.
• "Some of Trump's closest advisers would clearly like to limit the scope and size of those tariffs, but we suspect that Trump himself remains steadfast in his protectionist intentions and he will eventually win the internal debate," Capital Economics chief North America economist Paul Ashworth wrote Monday.

The intrigue: Which to believe: His aides, with their careful preparation; or the president, a legendary crafter of soundbites?

• It's always been an open question, one without a clear answer, though on balance Trump does tend to get what he wants.
• As Axios' Marc Caputo notes, the days of Trump's staff undercutting him and keeping him from doing what he wants appear over.

The bottom line: All the documents, briefings and plans in the world don't really matter much when Donald Trump has access to a TV camera.

Nathan Bomey contributed.

President Trump held off imposing broad tariffs on Day 1 of his presidency, instead ordering reviews of trade and currency imbalances.

Yes, but: In Oval Office remarks, he also raised the prospects of huge tariffs on Canada and Mexico in a matter of days.

Why it matters: Global markets feared Trump would immediately make good on his campaign promise to place sweeping tariffs on most or all U.S. imports, which could have sparked both inflation and a trade war.

• The mixed messages — holding off on ordering tariffs, but then casually mentioning their looming imposition — points to the deep economic uncertainty that will affect global policymaking in coming months.

Driving the news: Trump's trade memo orders federal investigations of trade deficits, alleged unfair trade practices and purported currency manipulation by other countries.

• The memo directs specific attention to trade deals with China, Canada and Mexico and whether their terms are being honored.
• An unnamed senior adviser told the Wall Street Journal the memo showed Trump was approaching trade "in a measured way."
• Reports on findings are due from senior officials on April 1, per the memo.
• Despite those deadlines, Trump said during an Oval Office signing ceremony late Monday that he was looking at 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico as soon as Feb. 1, citing the flow of both migrants and fentanyl from both countries.

By the numbers: The U.S. dollar, which is sensitive to the rise and fall of tariffs, was mostly weaker on the news, which first broke Monday morning.

• The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, dropped 1% after the initial Journal report.
• European stock markets rose, while Asian markets were flat early Tuesday.
• The Canadian dollar, which surged on the initial expectation tariffs were off the table, plunged again after Trump's late comments.

The intrigue: Trump didn't say by what mechanism he'd impose such large tariffs so quickly.

• Imposing tariffs is usually a months-long process, unless Trump utilizes a never-tried method of levying them via declaration of an economic emergency.

What to watch: Trump has vehemently denied any softening of his tariff plans in recent weeks, despite reports to the contrary.

• The memo could signal an overall more moderate approach, even as Trump continues to call tariffs "the greatest thing ever invented" and among "the most beautiful words" in the language.

Editor's Note: This story has been updated with President Trump's Oval Office comments.

Two days after her president-elect husband generated potentially tens of billions of dollars with a new meme coin, first-lady-in-waiting Melania Trump launched her own coin Sunday night: MELANIA.

Why it matters: The Trump family became crypto billionaires this weekend, simultaneously raising difficult questions about the boundaries between their official roles and personal profits.

By the numbers: The details on this new coin are sketchier, but we can see that it also has a supply of a billion tokens. It's not clear how many are on the market now.

• According to the token's site, the team is only setting aside 35% for themselves, but it will also only take 13 months for it all to unlock.
• More than 22,000 wallets held it early Sunday evening, shortly after launch, according to Solscan, a site for checking the details of assets on the Solana blockchain.
• The meme coin is offered by MKT World, a company associated with the incoming first lady.

What we're watching: The token for Trump's wife is rising in price fast, quickly breaking $5 on Dexscreener (with a fully diluted market cap of more than $5 billion).

• Which would mean something well over $1.5 billion for the team's allocation.
• Concurrently, TRUMP fell about 36% on the news that there was more than one family coin out there, from $72 to $44 on CoinGecko, at press time.

President-elect Trump launched his own cryptocurrency Friday night, and as of Sunday morning appeared to have made more than $50 billion on paper for himself and his companies.

Why it matters: The stunning launch of $TRUMP caught the entire industry off-guard, and speaks to both his personal influence and the ascendancy of cryptocurrency in his administration.

• It also speaks to the nature of the crypto industry that someone could have more than $50 billion worth of something that literally did not exist 48 hours previously.
• Combined with the value of his social media business and his real estate holdings, it nominally makes Trump one of the world's 25 wealthiest people.
• Follow Axios' live coverage of Inauguration Day.

Catch up quick: Friday night, while Trump was reportedly hosting a "Crypto Ball" for the industry in Washington, the president-elect launched his own meme-linked cryptocurrency.

• His website bills it as "the only official Trump meme."
• While a number of Trump-branded meme coins popped up in recent months, none had his official endorsement until now.
• His wife Melania joined him Sunday night with her own coin launch, $MELANIA, which was worth more than $5 billion within a couple hours.

By the numbers: According to CoinGecko price data, $TRUMP rose more than 600% overnight Friday into Saturday, and then more than 150% Saturday night into Sunday morning.

• It was trading just over $72 as of 7 a.m. ET Sunday.
• That gives the coin a fully diluted market capitalization just north of $72 billion.
• The meme website says 80% of the supply is held by Trump Organization affiliate CIC Digital, and a CIC co-owned entity called Fight Fight Fight LLC. ("Fight fight fight" is what Trump said after being shot at a rally in July.)
• They are subject to a three-year unlocking schedule, which means they cannot dump all of their holdings at once.

The intrigue: Trump has warmly embraced cryptocurrency as a concept and an industry, to the point that he is reportedly considering designating it a "national priority" as soon as this week, per Bloomberg.

💭 Brady's thought bubble: No politician has ever given their supporters a way to monetize that support -- until now.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with the latest prices for the $TRUMP coin.