The Trump administration moved Sunday to fire some 2,000 U.S. Agency for International Development workers and place most others on administrative leave, according to an email the agency sent to staff.

The big picture: The action that's set to take effect on Sunday just before midnight comes days after a federal judge permitted the administration to move ahead with the mass firings and continue the DOGE-led dismantling of the large-scale operation at what was the world's largest humanitarian aid organization.

Driving the news: "As of 11:59 p.m. EST on Sunday, February 23, 2025, all USAID direct hire personnel, with the exception of designated personnel responsible for mission-critical functions, core leadership and/or specially designated programs, will be placed on administrative leave globally," per the email to staff that was obtained by outlets including Axios.

• "Concurrently, USAID is beginning to implement a Reduction-in-Force that will affect approximately 1,600 USAID personnel with duty stations in the United States," added the email that's now posted on USAID's website.

Context: The Trump administration moved earlier this month to place direct hires on administrative leave globally and announced that it would pay for USAID personnel posted overseas to return travel to the U.S. within 30 days.

• Unions representing USAID workers sued the Trump administration, calling the action to dismantle the agency "unconstitutional and illegal."
• However, U.S. District Judge Carl Nichols on Friday lifted a temporary restraining order he had issued in the case after finding that "initial assertions of harm were overstated" by the plaintiffs.

Zoom out: Elon Musk has been leading a drive to dismantle USAID amid his DOGE cost-cutting efforts across all federal agencies.

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio, USAID's acting administrator, said the administration's goal was to "identify programs that work and continue them and to identify programs that are not aligned with our national interest" and address them.
• In a separate case, a federal judge paused the Trump administration's freeze on foreign aid.
• Representatives for the State Department and White House did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening.

Go deeper: Agencies, unions tell fed workers: Don't answer Musk's threat email

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

Employee buyouts, terminations and uncertainty at multiple federal agencies are sparking warnings about an erosion of scientific and technical expertise at a crucial moment.

Why it matters: No one country now dominates in every scientific field. The U.S. is in a tight competition with China for science and tech leadership as innovation amasses more economic value and geopolitical tensions rise.

• "It doesn't just impact federal employees," said a former National Science Foundation employee. "It will reduce our ability to maintain any leadership in the international landscape."

The big picture: By purging workers as well as enticing people to quit via early retirement, the federal government has cast aside specialists needed to help agencies fulfill their missions.

• Rocket scientists, ecologists, climate scientists, AI experts, chemists and other highly skilled workers have been affected.
• The scientists who remain at agencies are trying to do more with less, while in many cases anxiously awaiting more cuts.

Zoom in: Agencies from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are seeing a slew of early retirements plus job cuts that have either been carried out or are likely to come.

• People are "walking away with years of institutional knowledge," one current NOAA scientist said.
• "The door is revolving pretty quickly at NASA right now," one current space agency worker said. "They are losing people with tremendous amounts of experience."

Axios spoke to four current employees, and four who lost their jobs in recent weeks, who requested anonymity out of fear of retribution. They expressed concerns about a brain drain and loss of expertise.

Catch up quick: The National Science Foundation on Feb. 18 cut 168 employees — about 10% of its staff.

• Half were probationary employees, many of whom have Ph.D.s in their fields.
• The other half were contract workers who are highly specialized in their fields and who often work full-time jobs at universities and other institutions.

The intrigue: NOAA is bracing for cuts to its probationary workforce, and is already losing employees to the early retirement offer.

• The top climate and weather agency also operates satellites, manages national fisheries and handles marine species protection.
• NASA appears to have avoided immediate and sweeping cuts to its probationary staff — but a wave of high-profile retirements have cast uncertainty over the flagship Artemis Mission to return to the Moon.
• "Everyone is wondering if the other shoe is going to drop or what they're going to hear next week or never. It's terrible," one NASA employee said, adding that it has already driven people away.
• About 5% of NASA's workforce took the administration's deferred resignation buyout deal, NASA stated. The agency said it plans to cut its probationary workforce based on employee performance.

The other side: Addressing the Conservative Political Action Conference on Saturday, President Trump trumpeted his general efforts to cut government.

• "We have escorted the radical-left bureaucrats out of the building and have locked the doors behind them," he said. "We've gotten rid of thousands."
• In an earlier post on Truth Social, he praised Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency: "ELON IS DOING A GREAT JOB, BUT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE HIM GET MORE AGGRESSIVE."
• NASA and NSF didn't respond to questions about concerns of loss of expertise.

Between the lines: Probationary employees have typically been in their roles less than one or two years.

• But that doesn't necessarily mean they haven't worked in the government for longer. The probationary clock can sometimes reset when someone is promoted, transferred between agencies or steps into a new role.

The impact: The consequences of losing scientists, engineers, technicians and educators who conduct research, review grant applications, engage with communities across the country and oversee programs and missions will come in waves, several people said.

• "The immediate loss is by removing all the people we brought in to fill critical gaps in ecological modeling, advanced survey statistics, cloud and AI advancements," the current NOAA scientist said.

The main role of NSF is assessing proposals from scientists and engineers for taxpayer-funded research. Its annual budget is roughly $9 billion.

• "We need people who are incredibly smart with the expertise to determine if research is feasible and if it is moving the needle forward," the former NSF employee said.

What to watch: A secondary impact may be on the pipeline of future STEM talent in the U.S.

• The cuts "remove all desire for new workers to look at the government as a realistic option," the NOAA scientist said.
• It is "chopping off the whole younger layer, which any place needs to survive. These are people who know AI and have grown up with this stuff that these old fogies haven't."
• "To move us forward, we need them."

An Arctic blast tied in part to the polar vortex is driving record frigid air south from the Northern Plains toward the Gulf Coast Wednesday in a cold snap that will last the entire week.

Threat level: This event is setting daily record cold temperatures and is forecast to bring for the coldest temperatures on record for this late in the season.

• It will bring below-zero Fahrenheit wind chills as far south as Texas, Arkansas and Tennessee.
• As of Wednesday morning, more than 100 million people were under "extreme cold warnings" and advisories, from the Canadian border south to New Orleans.

By the numbers: The National Weather Service (NWS) is forecasting wind chills as cold as minus-35°F to minus-60°F across the northern Plains for multiple days.

• Conditions this cold can cause frostbite to exposed skin in just a few minutes, and hypothermia soon after that.
• The NWS is warning that its forecasters have "High confidence of widespread, record-breaking cold" with the coldest conditions lasting through Friday.
• Temperatures are running at least 40 degrees Fahrenheit below average for this time of year in the Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday.

This cold air, in slightly moderated form, will spill east later this week on the heels of a storm system that is bringing a swath of snow and ice to the Mid-South, Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic.

Zoom in: Here's how some cities will be affected this week on their coldest days, from the NWS:

• Minneapolis: A high of 5°F with a low of minus-13°F on Feb. 19.
• Des Moines: A high of 4°F and a low of minus-6°F on Feb. 19.
• Omaha: A high of 3°F and a low of minus-8°F on Feb. 19.
• Dallas: A high of 27°F and a low of 18°F on Feb. 19.
• Chicago: A high of 15°F and a low of 2°F on Feb. 19.

Bismarck and Minot, N.D. set daily records for their coldest temperatures on Feb. 18, at minus-39°F and minus-33°F, respectively. Parts of Montana saw temperatures plunge into the minus-40s°F on Wednesday morning, while in Texas, Dallas reached a low temperature in the teens.

• In north Texas, wind chills were below zero Fahrenheit on Wednesday morning, including the Dallas metro area.

Between the lines: Cold weather of this magnitude and duration is likely to increase energy demand as well as costs.

• It may also lead to another month in which the U.S. is the world's most unusually cold spot on an unusually hot planet, as it was in January.

The intrigue: The Arctic outbreak is consistent with events that some studies have shown to be more likely due to rapid Arctic climate change.

• It is tied to how multiple weather systems are lined up in the Far North, including a stretched polar vortex that has shifted south somewhat.
• Other factors include a strong area of high pressure over Alaska and parts of the Arctic, forming what is known as a "blocking pattern."
• These features are combining to drive frigid conditions southward, into the Lower 48 states.

A massive, severe storm system that's slamming the U.S. Northeast with heavy snow has this weekend triggered flash flood warnings in West Virginia, Virginia, Tennessee and Kentucky, where officials reported at least 11 deaths.

The big picture: The multifaceted storm that began Saturday knocked out power to an estimated half a million customers from Virginia to Mississippi and delayed thousands of flights during the holiday weekend.

• In Atlanta, Georgia, a local fire department official reported a man in his 60s was killed when a tree fell on his home during the storms.

Threat level: President Trump approved an emergency disaster declaration for Kentucky, making funds available in the storm that's impacting towns including Hazard, Ky., which was also affected by 2022's deadly flooding.

• Meanwhile, the storm was bringing powerful and damaging winds to the mid-Atlantic and heavy snow to New England and parts of Ontario and Quebec in Canada.
• Heavy rainfall was expected to continue to bring flash flooding from the mid-Mississippi Valley into the central Appalachians Sunday, per the National Weather Service.
• "Severe thunderstorms may bring damaging winds and tornadoes to parts of the Southeast U.S. this weekend," the NWS warned in a forecast discussion.

Zoom in: Mandatory evacuations were announced in Kentucky and Tennessee, where Obion County Mayor Steve Carr declared an emergency Sunday due to flooding.

• Beshear said at a Sunday morning briefing that a mother and her 7-year-old daughter were among those to die in floodwater-related incidents in Kentucky and he noted in evening social media posts that the state was "still facing dangerous conditions across the state."

By the numbers: In Virginia, where river flooding continued to be a concern, utility tracker poweroutage.us estimated more than 206,000 were without electricity on Sunday evening.

• As of Monday afternoon, more than 34,000 were still without power in Virginia.
• In Pennsylvania, where very strong winds of up to 63 mph were observed in parts of the state, more than 73,000 customers were without power as of Monday.
• In Maryland, where a high wind warning was in effect through 10pm Sunday ET, more than 34,000 customers have no power.

Between the lines: Flooding has gotten increasingly severe in an era of extreme weather, research shows.

• Human-caused climate change is leading to more frequent and intense extreme precipitation events, according to multiple studies.

In photos: Storm system's effects on U.S., Canada

Go deeper: Polar vortex-tied cold outbreak pushes into U.S. from the Arctic

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

A weeklong, polar vortex-related Arctic outbreak rivaling any seen so far this winter is slated to bring frigid conditions to much of the U.S. east of the Rockies next week.

Threat level: The Arctic air is likely to send temperatures plunging to at least 30 degrees below average for mid-February across the Midwest and Plains states, with the cold moderating some as it barrels east through late week.

• The National Weather Service is zeroing in on two "surges" of cold, one on Sunday and another Wednesday into Thursday for the Plains states.
• Computer models have been trending colder with this event over time, putting some record minimum temperatures and record low daily highs within reach.
• The East will also get significantly colder than average starting early in the week, the NWS stated in a forecast discussion.

The big picture: Experts told Axios that the cold outbreak is tied to the tropospheric polar vortex, the polar vortex in the stratosphere and other major weather players spanning from the tropical Pacific Ocean to Alaska, all the way to Greenland.

• This event is likely to be colder than the earlier polar vortex cold snaps so far this winter, according to University of Oklahoma meteorologist Jason Furtado.
• The cold will occur at the same time as the Arctic sees unusually mild conditions and a ridge of high pressure and milder-than-average air takes over in Alaska, according to Judah Cohen, a meteorologist at Atmospheric & Environmental Research.
• At the same time, the upper-level polar vortex will dip south, near the U.S.-Canada border.

Zoom out: The vortex is an area of low pressure that is a typical feature of the Northern Hemisphere's winter season, with winds swirling around it counterclockwise. It tends to keep the coldest air bottled up over the Far North.

Yes, but: In this case, multiple factors stand ready to allow Arctic air to pour across the U.S.-Canada border, including a stretched polar vortex, a so-called "blocking pattern" over Greenland and "a spike in Arctic temperatures," Cohen writes.

• These ingredients increase the odds of severe winter weather in the U.S., Europe and Asia, he said.
• Furtado said the blocking pattern is more expansive, existing across the North American Arctic region, directing colder air southward.
• According to him, conditions in the tropical Pacific also are helping to reinforce the arrangement of weather systems across North America now.

Context: Studies suggest human-caused climate change may be making polar vortex shifts more likely, but this is an area of active research.

• It also does not quite match up with the multifaceted event about to take shape.
• Cohen has published research tying rapid, human-induced Arctic warming to a chain of events, including disappearing fall sea ice in the Barents and Kara seas and increased snowfall in Siberia.

Friction point: This area of climate science is hotly contested, though it is generally agreed that rapid Arctic warming is having an effect on the region's winters that can alter weather thousands of miles away.

Elon Musk's budgetary chainsaw is looming over U.S. disaster prediction and response agencies — just as climate change is making certain types of extreme weather events more common and intense.

Why it matters: Cutting the Federal Emergency Management Agency — possibly entirely — and slashing the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s budget and mission amid a parade of climate disasters could have disastrous consequences.

Between the lines: NOAA's mission is broad and intricately linked with FEMA and state emergency management agencies.

• NOAA is responsible for flying into hurricanes to measure their strength and improve predictions.
• Its National Weather Service forecasts weather across the U.S. and its territories and collects the majority of ocean and atmospheric observations worldwide on a daily basis.
• The combination of Project 2025's prescription for NOAA, along with news reports of coming, steep staff cuts — so far unsubstantiated — has left the agency's staff demoralized.

The nomination of Neil Jacobs, a meteorologist specializing in computer modeling, to run NOAA has also been met with a mix of relief and anxiety, given that he was in charge during Trump 1.0 and the "Sharpiegate" scandal.

Zoom in: After scrutinizing NOAA, members of the Musk-led DOGE team have reportedly turned their attention to examining FEMA's programs and IT systems.

• On Tuesday, President Trump posted on Truth Social that "FEMA should be terminated."
• The disaster management agency, part of the Homeland Security Department, has been in the crosshairs since staff were accused of avoiding giving aid to Republicans in the wake of Hurricane Helene.
• "Where were the concerns for deadly consequences when FEMA directed employees not to help certain people in North Carolina — was that not deadly?" Harrison Fields, principal deputy press secretary at the White House, told Axios in response to concerns over potential cuts to these agencies.
• Erasing the agency would require congressional action. Trump envisions states taking the lead in responding to their own disasters.

"The people voted for major government reform. And that's what people are going to get," Musk said in an Oval Office appearance with Trump on Tuesday.

What they're saying: "Honestly, the next disaster to happen, you know, who are you calling?" Pete Gaynor, FEMA administrator during Trump's first term and currently an advisor to Bright Harbor, told Axios in an interview.

• Gaynor said there is widespread agreement that the agency needs reform in how it helps people recover from disasters, but he added that its preparedness and disaster response functions are in high demand and well-executed.
• "We need a national effort to reform FEMA," Gaynor said. "I don't think anyone is arguing with the president on that, even people at FEMA," he said.
• "But the disassembly, the abolishment of FEMA is not in the national interest."

Reality check: Most states lack the resources to respond on their own to major disasters — including conducting lengthy rebuilding projects.

• Red states could be hit the hardest. Texas, Louisiana and Florida received the most FEMA direct assistance since 2015, data shows.
• FEMA also funds programs aimed at reducing the risks from disasters and hardening infrastructure. Tens of millions in those grants go to red states annually, with additional money doled out to improve preparedness.

Catch up quick: As Axios scooped last week, DOGE has accessed IT systems at NOAA, one of the world's top weather and climate agencies.

• Project 2025, a roadmap of sorts for staffing the Trump administration and drafting policy, called for breaking up NOAA and assailed it for being part of a "climate change cabal."
• As Axios first reported, the administration has tasked NOAA with searching its existing grants for climate change-related keywords as part of an effort to be in line with Trump's executive orders.

Zoom out: Extreme precipitation events, heat waves and wildfires are all becoming more likely and severe because of a warming climate, forcing these agencies to maintain a grinding tempo.

• It's unclear how potentially reducing staffing at NOAA, or axing FEMA altogether, would improve early warnings, preparedness and response.

The Commerce Department has sent NOAA officials a broad set of keywords to search grants in ways that would cover most climate change-related projects.

Why it matters: NOAA is one of the world's top weather and climate agencies and provides funding to universities and researchers to improve the understanding and prediction of extreme weather and climate change.

• Any potential challenges to NOAA's peer-reviewed grants are "myopic and misguided," said Rick Spinrad, who led NOAA during the Biden administration.

Driving the news: The search is related to President Trump's recent executive orders, some of which were signed on his first day in office.

• It appears to be separate from DEI-related searches of internal NOAA websites conducted by Elon Musk's DOGE staff last week.

Zoom in: The list of keywords, a copy of which was seen by Axios, includes DEI-related language and terms pertaining to a range of Trump's executive orders to date.

• Commerce's interpretation of Trump's orders on environmental agreements and energy covers the terms "climate," "methane," "nitrous oxide," "greenhouse gas," "climate science," "carbon," the "Paris Agreement," and other terminology.

Reality check: It isn't clear what the administration intends to do with information gathered from the keyword searches or whether any funding may stop flowing to grants underway.

• Commerce officials and the White House didn't immediately respond to requests for comment.
• Instructions contained with the keywords caution that funding cannot be cut off due to court action that temporarily prevents a broad funding freeze initially instituted by the White House from taking effect.

Yes, but: Steep funding cuts reported to be coming to the National Science Foundation — along with Project 2025's vision for a far smaller NOAA stripped of its climate change-related work and the rapid dismantling of USAID — have caused anxiety to spike throughout the oceans, atmospheric and space sciences communities.

According to a NOAA source who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution, each of NOAA's divisions — referred to as line offices — have been tasked with searching their grants and any other outside funding support for the same set of keywords.

• This includes the Office of Atmospheric Research, as well as the National Weather Service, National Ocean Service, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service and other entities.
• Information within the document indicates authorship was at Commerce, which oversees NOAA, including a career staff member and a politically appointed official.

The intrigue: The potential effects of the keyword searches are illustrated by an example of funding directed to NOAA for grants under the Biden climate law known as the Inflation Reduction Act.

• That law funded a $575 million program of climate resilience grants, according to Spinrad.
• "If anything, these investments should be increased, not threatened," Spinrad said.
• The applications far outstripped demand, to the tune of billions of dollars, he told Axios.
• "By virtue of the name of the program, every grant undoubtedly includes the word 'climate,'" Spinrad said.

What they're saying: "A grant with the words 'climate' or 'carbon dioxide' in it is most likely tied to improving our ability to predict sea level rise, precipitation and temperature extremes, hurricane patterns, drought intensity, or flood frequency," Spinrad said.

• "These are not esoteric academic exercises but 'real world' applications focused on saving lives, protecting property, and ensuring economic viability."

The bottom line: The executive orders are being interpreted in ways that will provide the administration with a thorough accounting of NOAA's climate-related grants programs.

• How it uses that list remains to be seen.

Go deeper:

DOGE searches for DEI information at U.S. climate, oceans agency

Scoop: Trump nominates Neil Jacobs to head NOAA

DOGE representatives at NOAA are combing through IT databases to find employees associated with DEI initiatives, according to a source familiar at the oceans and atmosphere agency.

Why it matters: How Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency handles NOAA's information resources and workforce is critical for Americans since the agency provides severe weather warnings, researches climate change, protects fisheries and more.

• Employees were told DOGE is looking for "DEI content," the person familiar stated.

Zoom in: Two agency sources who requested anonymity for fear of retribution identified a DOGE employee at NOAA who is in the agency's online personnel directory, with a non-working phone number.

• A request for comment to that person's NOAA email address wasn't immediately returned.
• According to one source, who works for one of NOAA's multiple line offices, employees were emailed late Tuesday night and told to give this person edit access to internal intranet sites.
• Axios viewed a copy of the email that cited instructions from acting Secretary of Commerce Jeremy Pelter and acting NOAA Administrator Nancy Hann.

The intrigue: These sites would include employee resource groups, such as Pride at NOAA and Women at NOAA.

• The information would include their membership, internal newsletters, training documents and personnel management information, they said.
• DOGE has searched for similar content at other federal agencies, and the virtual closure of USAID via DOGE representatives and the State Department has employees across the federal government on edge.
• NOAA's workforce has experienced whiplash in the past 24 hours as its next administrator, Neil Jacobs, was nominated to the post after serving in an acting capacity under Trump 1.0.

At nearly the same time, word came that DOGE representatives had arrived at the agency.

• Yes, but: The content turned over wouldn't encompass the agency's vast climate and extreme weather data or operational weather and climate forecasts.
• Anxiety levels among the workforce there are high in part because the influential Project 2025 report calls for the agency's climate work to end, the National Weather Service to privatize and the agency to be broken up overall.
• Both Jacobs and Commerce Secretary Nominee Howard Lutnick have voiced opposition to that proposal.

What they're saying: Democratic Reps. Jared Huffman and Zoe Lofgren of California blasted Trump and DOGE for bringing the cost-cutting group into NOAA at all.

• "Now they have reached NOAA where they're wreaking havoc on the scientific and regulatory systems that protect American families' safety and jobs," they said in a statement. "Americans rely on NOAA's services, day in and day out."

Go deeper:

Trump nominee disavows Project 2025's plan to break up NOAA

Scoop: Trump nominates Neil Jacobs to head NOAA

Next NOAA chief faces mounting challenges, including AI forecasts

Most U.S. Agency for International Development direct hires will be "placed on administrative leave globally" from 11:59pm this Friday ET, per a statement posted to USAID's site.

Why it matters: The directive pauses most programs at the agency that leads foreign aid programs and means the vast majority of overseas workers will return home within days, per the announcement and an email sent to staff that was seen by Axios.

• The action that impacts most staff based in Washington, D.C., as well as globally, comes days after Elon Musk said President Trump had agreed to shut down USAID.
• Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced Monday new leadership and a potential restructuring of the agency.

State of play: Exceptions to the order on direct hires include "designated personnel responsible for mission-critical functions, core leadership and specially designated programs," per the statement and the email sent to staff.

• Essential personnel are expected to continue working and will be informed by agency leadership by 3pm Thursday.
• This forces hundreds of field staff, often with families, to pack up their belongings for themselves, and ship out unusually quickly.
• Most contractors will also see their contracts terminated, with agency officials considering "case-by-case exceptions and return travel extensions based on personal or family hardship, mobility or safety concerns, or other reasons," the statement said.
• The agency and the State Department are preparing a plan for USAID personnel currently posted overseas that would arrange and pay for return travel to the U.S. within 30 days, according to the statement.

Zoom in: The USAID website's sections were missing as of Tuesday night, with only the announcement visible on the site. Agency PDFs that had been posted online returned the message: "The source you are trying to access is temporarily unavailable."

• The USAID YouTube channel and Instagram account were both unavailable Tuesday night, while on Musk's X platform it appeared the agency's account had been deleted.
• The Facebook page was still active early Wednesday. The last update posted Friday said U.S. foreign policy plays "a vital role in fostering economic growth and stability in the Western Hemisphere" and featured a quote from Rubio's Wall Street Journal op-ed:

Zoom out: Experts have warned that axing USAID may have global health implications and it could destabilize regions where human-caused climate change is hitting particularly hard.

What we're watching: Protest organizers announced late Tuesday plans for a rally against what they called an "unprecedented, illegal, and deadly assault on USAID and American foreign assistance" that would leave "thousands of Americans jobless" and vulnerable communities worldwide without access to life-saving and essential aid.

• Democratic lawmakers including Sens. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) and Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.) will be among those addressing the rally at Upper Senate Park in D.C. that's due to begin 11:30am Wednesday, per a post from organizers.
• Several former top USAID officials will attend the rally, per an email from organizers late Tuesday. These will include Chris Milligan, former USAID agency counselor and the "highest ranking career Foreign Service Officer at USAID during the first Trump administration," the email notes.

Meanwhile, Senate Democrats have written to Rubio to demand answers following reports that representatives from the Department of Government Efficiency, which Musk is spearheading, accessed USAID's D.C. headquarters, American citizens' data and classified spaces.

• The lawmakers raised concern that two security officials were placed on administrative leave after denying DOGE reps access to internal systems.

What they're saying: Musk during an X Spaces discussion that began late Sunday called USAID "incredibly politically partisan" and said they had to "get rid of the whole thing" because it's "beyond repair."

• Representatives for the Trump administration did not immediately respond to Axios' requests for comment in the evening.

More from Axios...

• Scoop: Senate Dems plot USAID revenge on Trump
• Where USAID funds are disbursed around the world
• Congressional Democrats denied entry to USAID building

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

The planet just had its hottest January on record by a considerable margin, in a surprise finding (seriously) to climate scientists.

Why it matters: A La Niña event is ongoing in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which would typically be expected to cool the globe slightly. Yet that doesn't appear to be the case — at least not yet.

Zoom in: That the opposite is occurring suggests either a fluke or — combined with the record hot conditions in 2023 and again last year — something more mysterious.

• Climate scientists are still investigating multiple factors that may be causing the climate to warm at a faster rate than in other recent years, from changes in marine shipping fuels to the massive eruption of an undersea volcano.
• So far, there's been no way to explain the 2023 and 2024 records, but the expectation is that this year will be a top 5 hottest year — just not first place.

Yes, but: February appears poised for unusually cold temperatures across much of the Northern Hemisphere, which should lower global temperatures somewhat, according to climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, writing on Substack.

What they're saying: "An unexpected record to start things off may presage higher temperatures this year than many of us thought," Hausfather wrote.

The axing of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), which Elon Musk has vowed to "kill" with President Trump's support, could destabilize regions where human-caused climate change is hitting particularly hard.

Why it matters: By ending humanitarian assistance and proactive climate resilience and adaptation programs, the U.S. military could get pulled into responding to more future crises.

• Experts tell Axios that axing the agency completely, or even significantly downsizing it, would have security implications when it comes to climate change.

Catch up fast: USAID, an independent, operational agency now potentially moving under the State Department, conducts a variety of projects in climate-vulnerable locations such as Africa, Central America and parts of Asia.

• These include programs meant to help boost the resilience of agricultural production to extreme weather events and make infrastructure better able to withstand such events.

Zoom in: According to archived versions of USAID's websites, the agency helps countries cut their emissions, conserve carbon-rich tropical rainforests and rely more on renewable energy sources.

• "Climate change affects nearly everything we do at USAID," its climate page stated as of Jan. 17, according to the Internet Wayback Machine.
• "As such, the Agency mainstreams climate change considerations across much of our development and humanitarian assistance work."

What they're saying: Curtailing USAID is "going to add substantially to the instability in these volatile regions, because vulnerable populations will be doing without," Sherri Goodman, a senior fellow at the Wilson Center and board chair at the Council on Strategic Risks, told Axios.

• "Instability morphs, as we've seen in certain regions where insufficient governance, you don't have access to the basics, and there's a vacuum created and that also allows for other malign actors to come in," she said.
• She said it's a choice between paying "a little bit now" to help make regions "more resilient to food and drought shocks, or pay more later by having to send American sons and daughters into conflict areas."

A pullback in foreign aid could also benefit China, which may step into the void to offer its aid and earn more favor in Africa and elsewhere, Goodman and others said.

• "Trump's decision to shut down USAID has frozen critical work to deliver vital assistance around the globe, and put China in the driver's seat," Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) tweeted.

Between the lines: The Pentagon and U.S. intelligence agencies view climate change as a national security threat, in part because it has the potential to force military assets to respond to more humanitarian emergencies.

• Human-caused global warming could also result in more conflicts, including skirmishes over natural resources such as water.
• Some studies have already tied climate change to certain deadly conflicts, including the civil war in Syria.
• By being proactive with aid and on-the-ground programs, USAID provides the U.S. with a way to head off future crises before they get to that point.

For example, USAID, along with other agencies, operate a famine early-warning system to predict them before they occur, and direct aid to where it is needed most.

• The agencies also distribute food aid from U.S. farmers to those who need it most, which can cut down on migration that could destabilize countries or send waves of immigrants to the U.S.

What's next: It's currently unclear what USAID's fate will be given Musk's intense focus on it in recent days and Secretary of State Marco Rubio's statement that he is now the acting USAID administrator.

• Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) is placing a "blanket hold" on Trump's State Department nominees in response to USAID actions, the WSJ reports.

Go deeper:

What to know about USAID, the federal agency Musk vowed to kill

Where USAID funds are disbursed around the world

A novel new report combining several strands of research finds that human-driven climate change could result in $1.47 trillion in net property value losses from rising insurance costs and shifting consumer demand.

Why it matters: Insurance costs are increasing faster than mortgage payments. That's squeezing homeowners and leading to climate change-driven migration away from high-risk areas in the Sun Belt and the West.

The report from First Street, a climate risk financial modeling company, identifies the five largest metro areas likely to see the biggest spikes in insurance premiums: Miami, Jacksonville, Tampa, New Orleans and Sacramento.

Zoom in: The report is based on peer-reviewed models of how climate change may affect insurance prices, migration and economic patterns, among other factors.

• The findings are particularly timely given the recent, devastating wildfires in Southern California, which caused an estimated $20 to $30 billion in insured losses and raised the topic of how insurance premiums price wildfire risks.
• According to the new research, climate impacts may disrupt historical migration to Sun Belt states as risks of climate change-worsened extreme weather events continue to grow.
• First Street estimates that unrestricted, risk-based insurance pricing would yield a 29.4% increase in average insurance premiums across the country by 2055.

This would include an 18.4% correction for "current underpricing" and an 11% increase from climate risk increases.

The intrigue: The economic, climate and demographic modeling behind this report predicts that more than 55 million Americans will "voluntarily relocate within the U.S. to areas less vulnerable to climate risks by 2055."

• This would include 5.2 million internal climate migrants in 2025.
• Economic growth has been thought of as a shield of sorts to retain population in areas that suffer from increasingly severe climate change-related disruptions.

In its analysis, First Street warns that may not hold up through 2055, with some metropolitan areas crossing "tipping points" in which they begin to see net declines in population.

• Already, researchers found that fast-growing cities in the South, Southeast and West have pockets of higher climate risks where homes are gaining value more slowly than similar homes in less risky areas.
• There may be winners, however, with northern, currently less-populated areas from Montana to Wisconsin — and in parts of the East — taking in more people because of the region's greater climate resilience.

Between the lines: First Street's report itself hasn't been peer-reviewed, and there are important caveats and uncertainties associated with the work, since it combines results from multiple models and peer-reviewed studies.

• Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications for First Street and a demographer by training, laid out to Axios via email the new research's usefulness as well as its limitations.
• He said the models don't account for climate adaptation measures such as stricter building codes and sea walls to shield coastal areas from storm surge flooding.
• They also don't include inflation, which could miss non-climate-related housing market appreciation, along with other market forces that could also run counter to climate-risk-related losses in value.

The bottom line: These results are best used to identify locations that are most at risk for climate change-related increasing insurance costs, property devaluation and population change, Porter said.

A move by Allen Media Group to centralize weather operations at the Weather Channel, rather than keeping meteorologists at its local stations, has met with fierce resistance from viewers.

Why it matters: Local meteorologists know the communities they serve, and viewers tend to trust them over national sources. In severe weather situations, those factors can save lives.

• Many broadcasters also are trusted messengers on climate change.

Zoom in: Allen Media Group, owned by billionaire Byron Allen, owns both the Atlanta-based Weather Channel and a slew of local TV stations, mainly in smaller media markets.

• These range from KITV and KIKU in Honolulu to WCOV in Montgomery, Ala.
• The company announced a plan on Jan. 18 to use its state-of-the-art studios in Atlanta and move some of its local meteorologists there, while leaning on the Weather Channel's resources and personnel as well.
• The plan — set to play out during 2025 — also involves letting go of some local TV forecasters, prompting a wave of meteorologists to post online looking for new job opportunities and at least one to tell viewers goodbye during a newscast.
• Allen Media Group later appeared to reverse the decision, reportedly informing some local stations that their weather teams would remain in place for now.

The intrigue: In some of these TV markets, losing local meteorologists could create a TV weather desert in much the same way that losing newspapers nationwide has led to news deserts.

• Some in the TV weather industry fear that the Allen Media move represents a coming consolidation of local meteorologists to centralized weather hubs, given that just a few companies own a large number of local stations.

Friction point: Viewer reactions to the planned changes has illustrated the bond between local meteorologists and their viewers.

• WTVA in Tupelo, Miss., was among the stations where the weather was reportedly set to be outsourced to Atlanta, prompting viewers to organize a petition to save the meteorology team's jobs.
• Six state senators also drafted a resolution to urge Allen Media to reconsider layoffs.
• When an EF-3 tornado struck Amory, Miss., in March 2023, the forecast and warning from WTVA's Chief Meteorologist Matt Laubhan saved lives, Amory resident Jenny Hutson told Axios.

Hutson's home was severely damaged in the tornado, but her family took refuge in a community shelter thanks to Laubhan's guidance about exactly where the storm was headed.

• Laubhan also went viral during his forecast for that storm when he briefly prayed for the city live on television.
• "I just was just so thankful that he took the time to pray over people he doesn't personally know. …. That will always mean something to me," she said.

The other side: According to a person closely familiar with Allen Media's strategy, it stems from recognizing that extreme weather events are becoming more severe and frequent, largely because of climate change.

• As a result, how TV weather is presented needs to change, and the company's state-of-the-art weather production facilities in Atlanta offer significant advantages for their local stations to tap into, the person said.
• The Weather Channel's studios boast advanced immersive media production capabilities that can show viewers the effects of everything from storm surge flooding to an EF-5 tornado.

Allen Media intends to take the next year to implement its plan, with some of its local TV meteorologists already interviewing and being offered jobs in Atlanta.

• Others may stay at their stations, and some may lose their jobs.

State of play: Matt Chisolm, another WTVA viewer, told Axios he is concerned about the impact that outsourcing weather forecasts will have on an area that's notorious for tornadoes and severe weather.

• That's especially true, he said, when many residents don't have storm shelters in their homes and rely on advance warnings to have time to get to a community shelter.
• Chisholm, a self-proclaimed weather geek, said when forecasters use local landmarks, schools or churches to give you a storm's path, "it feels more real."
• "It's just the way people think, and they're going to be more apt to take heed of the warning," he said. Forecasters in Atlanta can't possibly know local landmarks and backroads in rural areas, he added.

The bottom line: Given climate change-related extreme weather trends, the push to broadcast local weathercasts from Atlanta strikes many as ill-suited to keeping people safe.

• It is also a warning sign of the future for TV meteorology.

Human-caused climate change made the Los Angeles-area fires more likely and more destructive, according to a study out Tuesday.

Why it matters: The study — from an international group of 32 climate researchers — shows how climate change fits into the myriad factors that made the multiple blazes one of California's most destructive and expensive wildfire disasters on record.

• "Overall the paper finds that climate change has made the Los Angeles fires more likely despite some statistical uncertainty," said Gabi Hegerl, a climate scientist at the University of Edinburgh who wasn't involved in the study, in a statement.

Zoom in: In making their conclusions, World Weather Attribution researchers zeroed in on the high winds; weather whiplash from unusually wet to extremely dry conditions preceding the fires; and long-term trends.

• The scientists found that low rainfall from October through December is now more than twice as likely compared to the climate that existed before humans began burning fossil fuels such as oil, coal and gas for energy.
• But they didn't conclusively tie this to climate change.

They also concluded that the LA fire season is becoming longer, with "highly flammable drought conditions" lasting about 23 more days now than during the preindustrial era.

• This makes for greater overlap between warm and dry conditions and strong Santa Ana offshore winds that can cause fires to spread quickly.

Zoom out: The study isn't the last word on this topic, nor does it come without uncertainties. But its findings are in line with other research.

By the numbers: According to the study, the hot, dry and windy conditions that propelled the flames into communities such as Altadena and Pacific Palisades were about 35%, or 1.35 times, more likely today due to the warming from burning fossil fuels such as oil, gas and coal, when compared to the preindustrial climate.

• These conditions, as measured by the Fire Weather Index, would become another 35%, or 1.8 times, more likely to occur in January if global warming reaches 2.6°C (4.68°F) above preindustrial levels.
• This amount of warming is a lower bound for what is expected by the end of the century, as the world is currently on course for upwards of 3°C (5.4°F) of warming.
• The Fire Weather Index takes multiple factors into account, including temperature, humidity, wind speed and the amount of preceding precipitation.

What they're saying: "Climate change set the stage, helping turn the hills around LA tinder-dry," said Roop Singh of the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre in a statement.

• "However, hurricane-force Santa Ana winds, the rapid spread of fires into urban zones, and a strained water system all made the blazes extremely difficult to contain," he said.

The intrigue: Climate change is also at least doubling the chances for below-average October through December rainfall in the LA area, the researchers found,

• In addition, hotter air temperatures are also making the atmosphere more efficient at evaporating moisture from the Earth's surface.
• Plants dry out faster in hotter temperatures, causing them to burn more easily.
• The study found a greater chance that drier, more combustible conditions will now overlap with the peak Santa Ana wind season in December and January.

Yes, but: The study based the rainfall trend analysis on both observational data and climate models. The models didn't show clear trends in rainfall or the fire season's end date — while the observational data did, and other published studies have as well.

• This study, like the dozens of other climate attribution studies that come soon after an extreme weather event, has yet to undergo peer review but is based on proven methods.

How they did it: The researchers used peer-reviewed methods to examine how fire events and risk in Southern California have changed since the preindustrial era.

• They conducted multiple analyses with observations and computer models.

They noted recent research showing that "hydroclimate whiplash" from very wet to drought conditions enables and worsens such wildfire events.

• In addition to this study's methods, the authors took into account peer-reviewed literature showing an increasing risk of wildfires and uptick in the extent of burned land, including in the West and Southwest, as the world warms.

Between the lines: The study notes that El Niño and La Niña, two natural climate cycles in the tropical Pacific Ocean, influence Southern California's seasonal precipitation.

The bottom line: "This is a carefully researched result that should be taken seriously," Hegerl said.

Fresh California wildfires ignited in Southern California on Thursday during "critical" fire weather, leaving tens of thousands of people under evacuation orders.

The big picture: The Hughes Fire, north of Los Angeles, and San Diego County's Border 2 Fire were among the biggest threats as the destructive Eaton and Palisades fires continued to burn during the fourth straight day of red flag warnings amid dry, windy conditions.

State of play: The Hughes Fire grew to 10,396 acres by Thursday night and was 36% contained after igniting a day earlier in Los Angeles County and spreading across over 5,000 acres to Ventura County — making it the biggest and fastest-spreading wildfire since the Eaton and Palisades fires erupted on Jan. 7.

• LA County Sheriff Robert Luna said at a Wednesday briefing that some 31,000 people were under mandatory evacuation orders and a further 23,000 were under evacuation warnings in the fire that's near the popular water reservoir Castaic Lake, some 40 miles from the Palisades and Eaton fires.
• The blaze in the San Gabriel Mountains prompted authorities on Wednesday to temporarily close all northbound lanes on Interstate 5 from just north of State Route 126 and issue smoke, windblown dust and ash advisories.

In San Diego County, the Border 2 Fire was burning out of control across some 600 acres after exploding in size following its ignition about 2:30pm Thursday.

• The county has seen at least seven fires this week, some of which prompted since-lifted evacuation orders. However, Axios San Diego's Kate Murphy notes this blaze is by far the biggest.

Zoom in: Other wildfires that started on Thursday included the Sepulveda Fire, which triggered evacuation warnings after igniting around 12:30am near LA's Getty Center and the UCLA campus.

• The warnings were later lifted as firefighters managed to get the blaze to 60% containment over 45 acres despite facing dry, warm and gusty conditions from Santa Ana winds.
• The Laguna Fire ignited in Ventura County later Thursday morning and was at 70% containment over 94 acres.

Meanwhile, firefighters continued tackling the destructive and deadly Palisades and Eaton fires in Los Angeles County despite the challenging conditions.

• The Palisades Fire was burning across 23,448 acres at 75% containment on Wednesday night.
• The Eaton Fire remained unchanged from Wednesday, across 14,021 acres at 95% containment.

Between the lines: This extreme weather event is partly related to the Arctic blast that's been impacting most of the Lower 48 states, with cold air surging into the Great Basin helping to fuel dry, offshore winds across Southern California.

• The region is suffering from hydroclimate whiplash worsened by human-caused climate change, having seen two wet winters followed by a bone-dry, unusually hot spring, summer and fall.
• Many parts of Southern California have had their driest start to the wet season on record. Only 0.16 inches of rain has fallen in LA since May 6.
• Much of the region has been experiencing "moderate drought" conditions, per the U.S. Drought Monitor.

What's next: A cooling trend was expected to begin on Friday and "turn significantly cooler over the weekend as a cold storm system moves over the region," per an NWS LA forecast discussion.

• LA County on X urged residents to "prepare for potential flooding, mudslides & debris run-off" over the weekend due to "an increased chance of mud & debris flow in recent burn areas."

More from Axios:

• How to safely clean toxic wildfire ash
• Climate change plays key contributing role in LA fires
• Why fire hydrants ran dry as wildfires ravaged Los Angeles

Editor's note: This a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

A once-in-a-generation snowstorm, tied to the polar vortex event across the Lower 48 states, is plastering the Gulf Coast with record-setting snow and ice on Tuesday.

Why it matters: This region isn't equipped to cope with heavy snow, particularly when it is accompanied by continued cold following the storm.

Situational awareness: At least 10 deaths have been reported in this rare winter storm.

Threat level: About 3 to 5 inches of snow fell in the Houston metropolitan area, and both the city's major airports shut down for the storm, as did city schools.

• The National Weather Service forecast office in Houston-Galveston on Monday night described the storm as a "generational event" that is likely to eclipse the city's second-largest snowstorm on record.
• The NWS forecast office in Lake Charles, Louisiana, issued its first-ever blizzard warning on Tuesday, for the combination of heavy snow and high winds.
• The snow is moving east Tuesday, and is affecting coastal areas all the way to the Florida Panhandle and southern Carolinas.

New Orleans is also seeing its all-time snowiest day based on modern records taken at their current location. A whopping 10 inches fell across the city by Tuesday night.

• Videos on social media Tuesday morning showed wind-driven snow falling in Lake Charles as well as New Orleans, with roads covered in snow.
• Blizzard-like conditions were observed in the New Orleans metro area, with high winds and visibility down to a quarter-mile at times.
• Snowfall reports ranged from about 5 inches just outside the city to as much as 9 inches already in Lafayette, with snowfall rates of at least an inch-per-hour at times.

This storm could shut down road and air travel along the coastal stretch from Houston to the Florida Panhandle for days due to the lack of snow plowing equipment and the region's inexperience with these winter hazards.

• Any power outages or other cuts to basic services from the extreme cold and snow could also take days to restore.

Stunning stat: The snow that has fallen so far in New Orleans exceeds the January snowfall so far in the Twin Cities as well as Anchorage, Alaska.

Meanwhile in Southern California, strong offshore Santa Ana winds have prompted the highest category of red flag warnings for Tuesday.

• And the Storm Prediction Center has issued an "extremely critical" fire weather outlook for parts of LA and Ventura Counties, as well as parts of San Diego County.
• The threat may dissipate somewhat Tuesday afternoon local time, but more Santa Ana winds are on the horizon for later this week.

Zoom out: Both the snowstorms, as well as the serious California fire weather threat Tuesday, are tied to the polar vortex-related Arctic blast affecting the majority of the Lower 48 states.

• Nearly 300 million people in the Lower 48 states were under some type of cold weather warning or advisory as of Tuesday morning.
• In addition, the strip of winter storm and blizzard warnings stretching from South Texas to Jacksonville, Fla. is something rarely seen, as a low pressure area traverses the central Gulf of Mexico, directing abundant moisture northward, into the frigid air mass.
• Over longer timescales, studies suggest polar vortex shifts may be more likely due to human-caused climate change, but this is an area of active research.

Extreme cold is also expected to become less severe in a climate that is warming over time due to the burning of fossil fuels.

Go deeper:

• Polar vortex-driven Arctic blast to yield historic southern snow
• Read Axios New Orleans' coverage
• Read Axios Houston's coverage

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

President Trump's Day 1 move to begin the process of withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement for a second time sends a clear signal to international partners that the U.S. is hot and cold on climate action.

Why it matters: The world is a very different place today than in 2017, when Trump first moved to have the U.S. depart from the then-nascent agreement.

• There may be sufficient momentum now in both the Paris regime as well as the burgeoning clean energy sector that this will make only a symbolic difference.

Zoom in: To have the U.S., which is the second-largest emitter behind China, exit the agreement even temporarily has the potential for other countries to start viewing the U.S. as an unreliable partner on climate and potentially other issues as well.

• Last time the U.S. left, no other country followed that move. This time could be different, given the rightward, anti-climate policies tilt in some key countries.
• The departure comes just after the Earth's hottest year on record and as climate impacts are becoming more obvious, from the devastating California wildfires to landscape-shifting hurricanes like Hurricanes Helene and Milton.
• However, the move also comes when clean energy innovation and deployment have hit new highs.

Between the lines: America's withdrawal from Paris doesn't take effect immediately, although the executive order notes the administration will treat it as such.

• The executive order was written to be far-reaching, cutting off funding for the UN climate organization that oversees annual climate summits and facilitates activities under Paris and other climate agreements since 1992.
• It would also squelch American contributions to international climate financing that would help countries adapt to climate impacts and boost clean energy production.
• To become official, it takes one year after U.S. diplomats submit a document to the UN climate bureaucracy notifying them of an intent to withdraw (last time Trump withdrew, it took longer due to a feature in the then-young agreement's provisions.)

There are outstanding questions of whether the Trump administration will continue to send some representatives to the annual climate summits, as it did during his first term, or skip entirely.

The main beneficiary of a U.S. withdrawal and pro-fossil fuels policies domestically could be China, which already leads the U.S. in the clean tech space.

Reality check: Right now, the global community is off track on the road to the Paris Agreement's goals.

• If the U.S.'s step back from international climate engagement results in a slower decline in global emissions, it would mean even worse climate impacts.
• It would also ensure that the agreement's 2°C target, which many experts say is still feasible with rapid emissions cuts, could slip.

What they're saying: "There is no sugar-coating this — it will be harmful to global efforts to combat climate change, and so ultimately, also harmful to the future prosperity and security of U.S. citizens," said Kaveh Guilanpour of the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, in a statement.

• He noted, though, that the world has been here before, and the agreement survived.

President Trump signed a blitz of first-day energy-related executive orders on Monday, establishing a national "energy emergency" and setting in motion actions that heavily favor expanding fossil fuel production and generation.

Why it matters: The moves amount to policy whiplash for the energy industry, segments of which had chafed under former President Biden's policies aimed at igniting the renewable sector.

Zoom in: The executive orders include a declaration of a "national energy emergency" aimed at increasing domestic energy production and lowering costs to the consumer.

• This is partly in response to the rapid AI-related growth of data centers and their energy needs, which the administration views through a national security lens.
• U.S. power demand is rising quickly after staying largely flat for the last 15 years.
• One of Trump's initial orders formally rescinds a series of Biden moves that stitched climate and environmental justice throughout federal agency decision-making, going well beyond energy and resource agencies.

This includes a repeal of the Biden administration's Justice 40 Initiative and a 2021 order that set aggressive federal procurement targets for EVs, clean power, low-carbon buildings and more.

• Trump also moved ahead with rolling back EPA tailpipe emissions rules that Republicans have characterized as an effective requirement for consumers to buy electric vehicles.
• The same order also seeks to restart liquified natural gas terminal approvals, which the Biden administration had paused for climate change and energy security grounds.

The intrigue: Other energy-related orders that Trump signed include steps to halt leasing of large wind farms, and boost oil and gas production.

• The administration also signed an executive order to boost Alaska's energy production, including by rescinding Biden's 2023 protection of major Alaskan coastal areas from drilling.
• He also signed an order that attempts to rescind Biden's formal withdrawal of East Coast, West Coast and major offshore Alaskan Arctic areas from drilling.
• But there's no guarantee producers have much appetite for exploring these regions, and formally selling drilling rights and enabling development would be a complicated bureaucratic and litigious process.

Other actions include seeking to pause funds from being spent under the Biden climate law, and shifting appliance energy efficiency standards back to Trump's first term, before Biden made them more stringent.

Threat level: Trump's attempted reversal of Biden-era policies could boost U.S. greenhouse gas emissions — or at least slow down projected reductions.

• This could worsen the severity and frequency of some extreme weather events as well as sea level rise, harming national security in other ways over time.

Reality check: Trump's "dominance" agenda will also confront market and process barriers — and plenty of litigation.

• U.S. oil output is already at record levels. Tepid global demand growth makes producers in Texas and elsewhere unlikely to flood the market.
• Gasoline and diesel costs are tethered to oil prices set on global markets, while electricity costs tend to be highly regional and dependent on weather and other forces.
• Executive orders can make some instant policy. Often they're a symbolic opening of the long, legally fraught bureaucratic slog of formally unwinding agency rules and policies.

Between the lines: Presidents can use emergency authorities to redirect resources and push the private sector to boost or maintain critical supplies.

• However, it's likely that the declaration itself will be challenged in court. And its provisions are likely to run into thorny legal issues given that state and regional authorities typically oversee power plant planning and permitting.

Between the lines: The oil and gas industry cheered Trump's opening moves.

• The good news for those companies extends beyond the energy orders.
• Trump's holding off for now on sweeping new tariffs that execs fear could raise project costs — and spur retaliation from buyers of U.S. exports.
• But it may be a temporary reprieve, with Trump instead ordering reviews of trade and currency imbalances.

What they're saying: "By fully harnessing our nation's abundant oil and natural gas resources, we can restore American energy dominance, drive economic prosperity and secure U.S. leadership on the global stage," Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, said in a statement.

• But Tiernan Sittenfeld of the League of Conservation Voters said in a separate statement: "It is crystal clear that his administration is all in to pad Big Oil Billionaire profits at the expense of our air, water, lands, climate, health, pocketbooks, and jobs."

The bottom line: The energy-related executive orders will yield some short-term actions on the ground.

• But it's their longer, topsy-turvy road to implementation that will be crucial to accomplishing the administration's goals.

President Trump signed an executive order during his first hours in office to begin the process of pulling the U.S. out of the Paris Climate Agreement — the second time he has done so.

Why it matters: The U.S. is the world's second-largest emitter of planet-warming greenhouse gases and top producer of oil and natural gas.

• Another U.S. departure from the pact would leave a major hole in international efforts to curtail greenhouse gas emissions and potentially call the country's foreign policy credibility into question.

Zoom in: It takes a year for a country to withdraw from the agreement.

• The Paris Agreement doesn't require countries to cut their emissions, but works through international peer pressure and countries' domestic laws to encourage nations to set ambitious emissions reduction targets.

Under former President Biden, the U.S. had committed to the voluntary goal of cutting emissions economy-wide by 61% to 66% below 2005 levels by 2035.

• Other countries are setting their own commitments — including China, the world's top emitter and leading nation in renewable energy deployment.
• Prior to signing the order, the incoming Trump administration described this and other actions on energy as a way to end former Biden's "climate extremism."

Flashback: The U.S. has been here before. Trump pulled the country out of Paris during his first term, only to have former President Biden rejoin the pact on his first day.

• Then, no other country followed the U.S. move to leave the agreement. The U.N. says 194 nations plus the European Union have joined the pact.
• Also, the first Trump administration continued to send representatives to the annual climate summits.

Between the lines: Leaving Paris again could cement foreign diplomats' and observers' view of the U.S. as an unreliable partner, given the U-turn from Biden's climate policies.

• Trump and his nominees have promised to increase fossil fuel production, roll back climate programs that the Biden administration had put in place, and unleash a broad policy of "energy dominance."
• In addition to the Paris Agreement executive order, Trump signed multiple energy orders that would — if implemented — reorient the U.S. away from a focus on lowering greenhouse gas emissions, and toward increasing oil and gas production and boosting available electricity on the grid.

The intrigue: Trump has long characterized the agreement as putting too much burden on the U.S. compared to other countries.

• "The United States will not sabotage our own industries, while China pollutes with impunity," Trump said Monday night before signing the executive order.

Reality check: Right now, greenhouse gas emissions are still too high to meet the agreement's temperature targets, even though some country's, including the U.S., have been reducing their emissions.

• If a U.S. departure were to slow the decline in domestic emissions and cause other countries to balk at taking more aggressive efforts, then it may make it even harder for the targets to be met.
• The action on Paris comes amid an increase in the severity and frequency of certain extreme weather events, and a little more than a week after climate change-worsened wildfires tore through metro LA, killing at least 27 and destroying more than 10,000 homes.

What they're saying: "By leaving the Paris Agreement, this administration has abdicated its responsibility to protect the American people and our national security," said Gina McCarthy, former White House national climate adviser and now managing co-chair of the "America is All In" coalition.

• "The U.S. withdrawing from the Paris Agreement is unfortunate, but multilateral climate action has proven resilient and is stronger than any single country's politics and policies," said Laurence Tubiana, a key architect of the Paris Agreement, in a statement.
• Simon Stiell, the top UN climate diplomat, issued a statement saying any country is welcome to offer "constructive engagement" at future climate talks.

Go deeper:

Climate and energy lessons from Biden's four years

An invasion of frigid air from the Arctic is sweeping south from the Plains and Ohio Valley Sunday, moving towards the Southeast and East.

Threat level: The colder-than-average temperatures threatens public health for those exposed to the wind and cold, and may harm water and power infrastructure from North Dakota to Texas, on eastward.

• The extreme cold has links to the polar vortex, which is a feature of the winter climate during winter in the Northern Hemisphere.
• "Life-threatening" wind chills down to minus-55°F are likely in the Plains and Upper Midwest, the NWS warns, mentioning the risk of hypothermia and frostbite for people exposed to the cold for too long.
• Sub-zero wind chills are forecast to affect the Ohio and Tennessee Valley Sunday night through midweek, with the possibility of similar cold spreading into portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in the wake of a winter storm.

Along with the cold, a snowstorm is affecting areas from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast on Sunday into Monday. It is poised to potentially become the heaviest snowstorm so far this year for Philadelphia, New York City and Boston, with 5 to 10 inches possible in this broad region.

What they're saying: "This will be the coldest air of the winter season thus far, and in many cases the coldest in several years," the NWS warns.

Zoom in: The hazardous cold will be especially disruptive in the South and Southeast, where temperature departures from average will be significant and persistent.

• A rare winter storm is set to deliver a severe snow and ice storm from Houston to Baton Rouge and New Orleans, eastward towards the Carolinas beginning Monday.
• As of Sunday morning, the National Weather Service was calling for about 3 inches of snow to fall in Houston, with up to 5 inches in parts of the metro area.
• About 2 to 3 inches of snow are expected to fall in New Orleans, with 4 to 6 inches in Baton Rouge.

The intrigue: The NWS forecast office in New Orleans is urging residents to "Exercise extreme caution if travel cannot be avoided" due to the cold and snow that is expected.

• "Given the rare southerly track of this winter storm, major traffic and travel disruptions are likely through mid-week," the NWS stated in an online forecast discussion.

By the numbers: Here's how some cities will be affected early next week:

• Minneapolis: A high of minus-5°F with a low of minus-13°F on Jan. 22.
• Denver: A high of 6°F and a low of minus-4°F on Jan. 20.
• Dallas: A high of 33°F and a low of 23°F on Jan. 21.
• New York City: A high of 18°F and a low of 10°F on Jan. 21.
• Washington, D.C.: A high of 21°F and a low of 11°F on Jan. 21.

Meanwhile... The Arctic outbreak will result in a blustery and frigid Inauguration Day, with temperatures in the upper teens and wind chills even lower on the National Mall when President-elect Trump takes the oath of office inside the Capitol to protect attendees from the cold.

The intrigue: The cold air may also spill westward into the Great Basin, setting up yet another period of strong, offshore Santa Ana winds in Southern California.

• The Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare, "extremely critical" wildfire risk outlook for Monday across some of the same areas hit by the devastating wildfires earlier this month.

Zoom out: The factors behind this cold outbreak include a strong high pressure area or "ridge" in the jet stream across the eastern Pacific north to Alaska. Meanwhile, there's a dip, or "trough," in the jet stream across central portions of the U.S.

• This is allowing Arctic air to surge southward.
• Also, in the upper atmosphere, the polar vortex is currently becoming "stretched" from north to south across the North Pole.
• It is expanding southward and helping to promote the flow of air from northern Canada southward toward the continental U.S., said Judah Cohen, a meteorologist at Atmospheric & Environmental Research.

Zoom out: The polar vortex in the stratosphere is altering the jet stream one atmospheric layer down, in the troposphere. This is where most weather takes place.

• This interaction between the polar vortex and the jet stream may be favoring the strong area of high pressure over Alaska and downstream trough, according to Amy Butler, a researcher at NOAA, and Simon Lee of the University of St. Andrews.
• Both researchers said this interaction is likely to be more short-lived than what happened during the infamous polar vortex winter of 2013-2014.

Over longer timescales, studies suggest polar vortex shifts may be more likely due to human-caused climate change, but this is an area of active research.