The U.S. and Ukraine are closing in on minerals agreement worth hundreds of billions of dollars under which the U.S. would express its desire to keep Ukraine "free, sovereign and secure," according to a draft obtained by Axios.

Why it matters: The Trump administration sees the agreement as a way to get a return on U.S. investment in Ukraine, which has vast untapped mineral wealth. Ukrainian officials see the deal as a way to halt the deterioration of relations with the Trump administration and establish a longer-term partnership with the U.S.

• A Ukrainian official told Axios a deal is close and could be signed as soon as Monday. The official said the document Axios has reviewed is the most recent version, but could still be amended.
• Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olga Stefanishyna confirmed in an X post Monday that the sides were close to a deal, and said signing it would "showcase our commitment for decades to come."

The latest: President Trump wrote on Truth Social after a G7 virtual meeting on Monday marking three years since Russia's invasion of Ukraine that he "emphasized the importance of the vital Critical Minerals and Rare-Earths Deal between the United States and Ukraine, which we hope will be signed very soon!"

• He added that the deal will help "the American people recoup the Tens of Billions of Dollars and Military Equipment sent to Ukraine, while also helping Ukraine's economy grow as this Brutal and Savage War comes to an end."

Driving the news: The draft agreement calls for the establishment of a "Reconstruction Investment Fund" that will be co-managed by the U.S. and Ukraine.

Key quote: "The Government of the United States of America intends to provide a long-term financial commitment to the development of a stable and economically prosperous Ukraine," the draft says.

• It adds that the fund will be designed "so as to invest in projects in Ukraine and attract investments to increase development," including in areas like mining and ports.
• But it also suggests the U.S. will recoup some of its expenditures related to "defending, reconstructing, and returning Ukraine" to its pre-war GDP.

Between the lines: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky infuriated Trump by rejecting an initial U.S. proposal, but said Monday at the G7 leaders meeting that he hoped to sign an agreement in Washington soon.

• He told reporters Sunday that the U.S. side had dropped a demand that it receive $500 billion from Ukrainian minerals projects — a sum Zelensky noted was far more than the U.S. had contributed to Ukraine.
• Zelensky rejected the idea of treating aid to Ukraine as a debt that must be repaid, and added that the agreement must include U.S. military support for Ukraine.

The intrigue: The draft seen by Axios expresses a desire that Ukraine remain free, but does not specify any U.S. military commitment.

• It also stipulates that Ukraine must contribute $500 billion to the fund — and that Ukraine's contributions must be double the U.S contributions — but it does not call for that sum to be paid to the U.S.
• The draft calls for 50% of Ukraine's revenues (minus operating expenses) from "extractable materials" — including minerals, oil and gas — be paid into the fund.
• Bloomberg first reported on aspects of the proposed deal.

Worth noting: The text contains a provision referring to projects in areas "temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation, in the event such areas are de-occupied."

• Much of Ukraine's mineral wealth is in the war-torn east.

What's next: The draft seen by Axios calls for the U.S. Treasury and Commerce Departments, along with Vice President Vance's office, to work out the details of the arrangement with Ukraine's Economy Ministry after the initial framing document is signed.

• At the bottom, the document has spaces for the signatures of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his Ukrainian counterpart, Andrii Sybiha.
• Sources on both sides have told Axios a deal is looking increasingly likely, and could be announced soon.

Three years into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia is making only small-scale advances on the battlefield but has the upper hand both militarily and diplomatically.

The big picture: Russia has superior manpower and firepower, particularly with U.S. military support in question. President Trump has further tightened the vise with his initial approach to peace talks.

• Trump ruled out NATO membership or a U.S.-led peacekeeping mission for Ukraine, falsely claimed Ukrainian "dictator" Volodymyr Zelensky started the war, and excluded Ukraine from a first round of peace talks with the Russians.
• Trump has claimed Russia's Vladimir Putin could take "the whole country" on the battlefield if he wished — though Putin only managed to take around 1% of Ukraine's territory in 2024.
• The battle lines haven't shifted all that much since 2022 despite heavy casualties on both sides, with Russia occupying around one-fifth of the country altogether.

How control of Ukrainian territory has shifted

Flashback: Russia began a three-front lightening offensive on Feb. 24, 2022 but failed in its primary objective of taking Kyiv and was also rebuffed in the south and east (see second map).

• Zelensky became an international icon by remaining in Kyiv and rallying the nation. As Russian forces pulled back, horrific war crimes were uncovered in places like Bucha.
• Ukraine liberated vast swathes of the Kharkiv, Kherson and Mykolaiv regions in a fall, 2022 counteroffensive (third map).

Turning point: Ukraine's much-heralded 2023 counteroffensive failed. A war of attrition set in, with both sides taking heavy losses and Russia making small-scale advances.

• While it has primarily been Russia on the offensive since then, Ukraine launched a cross-border incursion last August and occupied parts of the Kursk and Belgorod regions.
• Russia has reclaimed much of that territory and is making slow advances in multiple zones of eastern Ukraine (fourth map).

Driving the news: Russia is also continuing its attacks on civilian infrastructure, and launched its largest drone attack of the war on Saturday.

By the numbers: Troop and civilian casualties

Ukrainian troop casualties: Zelensky said recently that more than 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed and over 390,000 wounded. Other estimates are considerably higher.

Russian troop casualties: Russia has not released casualty numbers for its troops since 2022. Estimates vary widely, but most put Russia's losses somewhat higher than Ukraine's.

• A Mediazona-BBC News project to track Russian troop fatalities has recorded 93,641 deaths.
• The Ukrainian military claimed on Thursday that Russia had suffered more than 800,000 "battlefield losses," presumably including those captured or severely wounded.
• Kyiv also claims around 3,000 North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine have been killed.

Civilian casualties: The UN reported over 12,340 civilian deaths in Ukraine as of late 2024, and noted the true total was likely "much, much higher."

• Tens of thousands of civilians likely died in the 2022 siege of Mariupol alone, AFP notes.
• Around 63,000 Ukrainians have been reported missing, according to a government database.

The scale of destruction in Ukraine

The Kyiv School of Economics puts the destruction Russia has inflicted on Ukraine at $155 billion, by replacement cost.

• The majority of those losses are to housing and infrastructure. Russia has targeted Ukraine's energy infrastructure in particular, causing rolling blackouts in Kyiv and other cities around the country.
• An NYT analysis last year found 210,000 buildings leveled across Ukraine. That includes hundreds of schools, hospitals and government buildings.
• Some towns in eastern Ukraine have been entirely destroyed and emptied of civilians. Conditions for the civilians remaining in areas occupied by Russia are often dreadful.

What to watch: Prospects for peace

For a peace deal to be possible, Putin and Zelensky would both have to soften their irreconcilable positions.

Putin claimed four Ukrainian regions as part of Russia in 2022, despite the fact that significant portions of those areas remain in Ukrainian hands. He has said they must remain part of Russia.

• He has also demanded that Ukraine "demilitarize" and abandon its goal of NATO membership.

Zelensky continues to lobby for admission to NATO, despite Trump's position that it's "impractical."

• He had long insisted Ukraine's full territorial integrity must be restored, but has more recently acknowledged that's unlikely in the near term.
• He is unwilling to countenance "demilitarization" and insists on robust security guarantees for Ukraine as part of any deal, to prevent Russia from resuming its invasion when the time is ripe.

While the Trump administration has said U.S. troops will not take part, Trump told Zelensky a European peacekeeping force could make sense, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.

• Zelensky also told Trump that Putin is only pretending to want peace.

President Trump was not the first U.S. president or major Western leader to rail against a "dictator" for launching the war in Ukraine — but he was the first to mean Volodymyr Zelensky, not Vladimir Putin.

The big picture: It's hard to overstate how quickly and wildly Trump's foreign policy deviated from former President Biden's — and often from his own campaign pitch of America First restraint.

Before even taking office, Trump threatened to seize the Panama Canal and Greenland.

• He later stunned Middle Eastern leaders and his own advisers by laying claim to the Gaza Strip to construct a U.S.-owned Riviera.
• He's repeatedly insisted Canada become the 51st U.S. state — something that played as a joke at first, but which Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called a "real thing" in a hot mic moment.

Between the lines: Trump's expansionist urges, like his tariffs threats, have lent his first month the feel of raw but unfocused American power.

• His territorial demands may fade away, or narrow considerably (negotiating lower canal transit fees from Panama, say).
• But they're fueling a global sense that Trump's America is to be feared — including by allies.

Zoom in: Nothing has alarmed America's longtime European partners so much as his treatment of Zelensky, who was left out of this weeks U.S.-Russia talks then repeatedly bashed by the president.

• European allies are horrified by Trump's apparent abandonment of Ukraine, and openly lamenting that they can no longer rely on Washington.
• Trump's team, for its part, argues that Europe has coasted on American strength for far too long, and that NATO's previous approach to Ukraine only prolonged a terrible war.
• After eight decades, the Transatlantic marriage is undeniably on the rocks.

The bottom line: Trump may not change the map, but he is changing the world as we know it.

At least seven federal prosecutors resigned rather than comply with an order to dismiss corruption charges against New York Mayor Eric Adams — an unprecedented exodus that includes veteran lawyers with deep conservative credentials.

Why it matters: This was perhaps the most dramatic battle yet between the Trump loyalists taking the reins across Washington and the career civil servants attempting to hold the line against alleged overreach.

• It ended with Acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove pulling the DOJ's remaining public integrity prosecutors into a room and warning them that if one didn't agree to file the motion dismissing the charges within an hour, they could all be fired, Reuters reports.
• One prosecutor finally agreed to do so under duress, per Reuters.
• The DOJ declined to comment Friday.

How it happened: U.S. Attorney Danielle Sassoon resigned Thursday rather than comply with an order from Bove to drop the corruption charges against Adams.

• Bove, who previously worked on Trump's personal legal team and had already tussled with acting FBI leadership over a potential purge of agents who worked on Trump-related cases, argued that clearing the charges would allow Adams to comply with Trump's immigration policies.
• Sassoon, who clerked for Justice Antonin Scalia and is a member of the conservative Federalist Society, skewered those political motivations in a lengthy resignation letter.
• Bove accepted the resignation, writing: "In no valid sense do you uphold the Constitution by disobeying direct orders implementing the policy of a duly elected President, and anyone romanticizing that behavior does a disservice to the nature of this work and the public's perception of our efforts."

But Sassoon was far from alone.

• John Keller, the acting chief of the Justice Department's Public Integrity Section, and Kevin Driscoll, the acting head of the DOJ's criminal division, also swiftly resigned.
• At least four more resignations have followed, including that of Hagan Scotten, an assistant U.S. attorney with the Southern District of New York.
• "No system of ordered liberty can allow the Government to use the carrot of dismissing charges, or the stick of threatening to bring them again, to induce an elected official to support its policy objectives," Scotten wrote in his own resignation letter.
• He added: "If no lawyer within earshot of the President is willing to give him that advice, then I expect you will eventually find someone who is enough of a fool or enough of a coward, to file your motion. But it was never going to be me."

Split screen: Amid the resignation drama, Adams appeared on "Fox & Friends" alongside Trump administration border czar Tom Homan on Friday morning.

• He promised to collaborate with Trump's immigration enforcement policies and skirted a question about the possibility New York Gov. Kathy Hochul will remove him from office.
• Adams was indicted last year on charges of bribery and fraud following a federal investigation into allegations that his campaign had illegally conspired with wealthy foreign businesspeople and Turkish officials to collect donations.

More from Axios:

• Eric Adams joins forces with Trump border czar after DOJ orders case dropped
• 3 federal prosecutors resign after DOJ order to drop NYC mayor's case
• DOJ moves to have NYC Mayor Eric Adams' charges dropped

Editor's note: This story has been updated with the latest.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that Israel will end the ceasefire and resume the war in Gaza if Hamas doesn't "return our hostages by Saturday at noon."

Why it matters: This is the most serious crisis the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal has faced since it was signed in January. If both Hamas and Israel stick to their current positions, the war will resume this weekend.

How it happened: Hamas said Monday that it would indefinitely postpone the release of three hostages scheduled for this weekend, alleging Israel was violating the ceasefire. Failing to release the hostages would be a breach of the agreement.

• President Trump responded by declaring that the ceasefire should end if Hamas does not release all 76 hostages it is still holding — a demand that goes far beyond what is laid out in the ceasefire.
• Netanyahu alluded to those remarks by Trump but did not specifically endorse them. He did not say how many hostages he expects to be released on Saturday.
• Israeli officials tell Axios that Netanyahu is not demanding the release of all 76 hostages by Saturday, and is willing to continue implementing the first phase of the deal if Hamas releases the three hostages as agreed.
• Nine live hostages are still scheduled to be released over the next three weeks as part of the first phase, along with the remains of eight deceased hostages.

What they're saying: After a four-hour security cabinet meeting, Netanyahu said that in light of Hamas' "decision to violate the agreement" the government had determined that if the hostages aren't released by Saturday, "the ceasefire will be terminated and the IDF will return to intense fighting until Hamas is finally defeated."

• President Trump reiterated his ultimatum for Hamas at the top of his meeting with King Abdullah II of Jordan at the White House on Tuesday.
• "I have a Saturday deadline. I don't think they (Hamas) are gonna make the deadline. They want to play tough guy. We will see how tough they are ... if they don't release all the hostages all bets are off," Trump said.

The other side: After Netanyahu's remarks Hamas issued a statement stressing it will adhere to the ceasefire agreement as long as Israel is committed to it.

• "Israel is the one that does not fulfill its promises, therefore Israel bears responsibility for any changes or delays in the agreement," Hamas said.
• The group claims Israel violated the deal by delaying the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza, conducting airstrikes in several parts of Gaza and delaying the entry of tents and mobile homes into Gaza for Palestinians who lost their homes.
• Israel claimed most of Hamas accusations are false and stressed that it is not responsible for the delay in the supply of the mobile homes.

Behind the scenes: Israeli officials told Axios that during the security cabinet meeting the heads of the Israeli negotiating team urged Netanyahu and the rest of the ministers not to escalate the situation.

• They told the ministers that Israel should to try and work out the crisis with the Qatari and Egyptian mediators in order to secure the release of the three hostages on Saturday and the remaining hostages in the next three weeks.

The big picture: During his meeting with King Abdullah, Trump spoke again about his "Gaza takeover" plan but stressed the U.S. and its allies in the region will decide "together" where Palestinians from Gaza will be relocated to.

• At the same time, he said he wants Jordan and Egypt to each give a parcel of land for resettlement of Palestinians from Gaza.
• "99% we will work out something with Egypt," Trump said, even as Cairo goes all out to oppose his plan.

King Abdullah said at the top of his meeting with Trump that Jordan will take 2000 Palestinian children from Gaza for medical treatment in Jordan.

• "It's a beautiful gesture. Music to my ears," Trump responded.
• The king then said that Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries are going to consult soon about Trump's plan and prepare an alternative proposal for the reconstruction of Gaza.
• While not rejecting Trump's plan in front of the cameras, after the meeting the king wrote on X that he reiterated to the president that Jordan opposes the displacement of Palestinians.
• "This is the unified Arab position. Rebuilding Gaza without displacing the Palestinians, and addressing the dire humanitarian situation, should be the priority for all," he wrote.

President Trump is taking a sledgehammer to a bedrock of U.S. foreign policy, ripping up decades of "soft power" in favor of a highly personalized, transactional, coercive style of dealmaking.

Why it matters: For Trump, results speak loudest. Less than three weeks into office, his administration already has struck deals of varying substance with Canada, Mexico, Colombia, Panama, El Salvador, Guatemala and even Venezuela.

• Most were secured through threats of tariffs and other leverage, with Trump's top diplomat, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, occasionally serving as the good cop.
• But the headlines obscure a longer-term risk: Trump is gutting key aspects of America's global influence and the workforce that promotes it — leaving a vacuum that U.S. adversaries are eager to fill.

Zoom in: Trump and Elon Musk's rapid dismemberment of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) — by far the world's largest provider of foreign aid — has stunned diplomats and NGOs around the globe.

• In an instant, the most impoverished and unstable regions of the world have seen funding dry up for basic food supplies, water, medicine, education, disaster relief — affecting the lives of millions of people.
• The New York Times reports that Trump is slashing the number of USAID jobs worldwide from over 10,000 to 290, while canceling about 800 grants and contracts.
• Trump and his "America First" allies argue the money should be spent at home, and that USAID is a Trojan horse for spreading destructive leftist ideologies. The governments of China, Russia and Iran seem to agree.

Between the lines: Republicans haven't always held such negative or conspiratorial views of foreign aid.

• "Our national interests are inextricably tied to the security and development of our friends and allies," said President Ronald Reagan, who made soft power central to U.S. foreign policy during the Cold War.
• As a senator, Rubio was a fierce defender of foreign aid — and even sent President Biden a letter in 2022 calling for more USAID funding to "counter the Chinese Communist Party's expanding global influence," according to CNN.
• "I promise you, it's going to be a lot harder to recruit someone to anti-Americanism, anti-American terrorism, if the United States of America was the reason why they're even alive today," Rubio said in 2017.

Zoom out: Meanwhile, Trump has made clear his disdain for America's network of alliances, which previous presidents have seen as a crucial competitive advantage over adversaries.

• Trump threatened Canada with 25% tariffs and has repeatedly suggested turning America's northern neighbor into the 51st state.
• He has said the European Union is "worse than China" when it comes to trade.
• He wouldn't rule out sending in troops if NATO ally Denmark doesn't hand over Greenland.
• And he threatened tariffs on Colombia, historically one of the closest U.S. partners in Latin America, for turning back a flight of deported migrants.

What they're saying: "There's really no better gift to Putin and Xi than for the world to see that the United States is a completely unreliable friend and partner," says Daniel Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel who also held senior roles at the Pentagon and National Security Council.

• "People will obviously treat us as just one more transactional great power."

What to watch: Rubio announced Thursday that he would boycott a G20 gathering in South Africa after Trump and Elon Musk condemned a post-apartheid land reform law as "racist" toward white people.

• "South Africa is doing very bad things. Expropriating private property. Using G20 to promote 'solidarity, equality, & sustainability.' In other words: DEI and climate change," Rubio tweeted.
• It's very rare for any member of the club of global powers to skip such a gathering, let alone the U.S.
• China, which has invested heavily in soft power through its sprawling Belt and Road Initiative, pointedly expressed support for South Africa's G20 presidency after Rubio's snub.

The bottom line: Biden was fond of saying that what mattered was "not the example of our power, but the power of our example."

• Trump believes exactly the opposite.

President Trump declared during a press conference alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday that "the U.S. will take over the Gaza Strip" and "own it."

Why it matters: 2 million Palestinians live in Gaza, which was largely destroyed by Israel in its war with Hamas militants. Trump has contended those Palestinians should be moved out and the U.S. should take control in order to rebuild — a startling proposal with no legal backing, but which Trump presented as a done deal.

Asked if he was planning a "permanent occupation" of Gaza, Trump said: "I do see a long-term ownership position," which he claimed would bring "great stability" to the region.

• That idea is likely to face fierce opposition from Palestinians and from leaders across the region.
• Trump did not rule out sending in U.S. troops.
• He has frequently remarked on what valuable "real estate" Gaza could be, and suggested at the press conference that it could one day be "the Riviera of the Middle East."

Driving the news: Trump met on Tuesday for several hours with Netanyahu, who was the first foreign leader to visit the White House since he assumed office.

• "We had fantastic talks," Trump said, claiming he was fixing the alliance with Israel after former President Biden's tenure "tested" it.
• Netanyahu echoed the same message and accused the Biden administration of creating "daylight" with Israel that made it difficult for both countries to work together.

What he's saying: "The U.S. will take over the Gaza Strip, and we will do a job with it too," Trump said during the press conference after their meeting.

• "We'll own it and be responsible for dismantling all of the dangerous unexploded bombs and other weapons on the site, level the site and get rid of the destroyed buildings," Trump said, adding that his plan would "supply unlimited numbers of jobs and housing for the people of the area."
• Trump said it was time to "do something different" because "if you go back, it's gonna end up the same way it has for a hundred years."
• Asked who he envisioned living in the redeveloped territory, Trump said "the world's people" — including Palestinians and presumably Israelis — could move to Gaza once it's rebuilt.

The other side: Netanyahu, who looked surprised by Trump's comments, didn't outright endorse the proposal but said it is "a different idea" that Israel and the U.S. are discussing.

• "I think it could change history and it is worthwhile pursuing," Netanyahu said.
• "You say things others refuse to say and after the jaws drop people say, 'maybe he is right,'" the Israeli prime minister added.

What to watch: Trump's proposal will be deeply polarizing across the Middle East.

• The leaders of Jordan and Egypt strongly oppose Trump's idea of moving Palestinians out of Gaza and into their countries, though Trump said he thinks they will "open their hearts" to the idea over time.
• Trump stressed that Saudi Arabia would be very helpful to his plans in the Middle East and claimed the Saudis wouldn't condition normalization with Israel on the establishment of a Palestinian state.
• Shortly afterwards, the Saudi foreign ministry issued an unusually strong statement denying this and rejecting Trump's idea of moving Palestinians from Gaza.

"I don't think there are a lot of Americans who wake up in the morning saying, 'Oh, damn Canada. Oh, we should really go after Canada,'" Prime Minister Justin Trudeau remarked Saturday, encapsulating the shell shock many north of the border are now feeling.

Why it matters: The U.S. is indeed going after Canada. The 25% tariffs President Trump announced on Canada and Mexico — which will likely plunge our northern neighbor into recession — have united Canadians of all political stripes in indignation.

One sign of that sentiment: Canadian sports fans have started booing the U.S. national anthem.

• Another: Canada's previously Trump-friendly opposition leader and likely future prime minister, Pierre Poilievre, demanded Sunday that Canada "Retaliate with dollar-for-dollar tariffs," "defend our sovereignty" and "never back down" to Trump.
• Neither Trump's rationale for the tariffs, nor his preferred outcome — Canada's annexation as the 51st U.S. state — make much sense to Canadians.

Breaking it down: Trump justified the tariffs on national security grounds — namely that migrants and fentanyl are pouring across the northern border.

• However, less than 1% of fentanyl seized in the U.S. last year was entering through Canada.
• The number of undocumented migrants detained at the U.S.-Canada border has been rising, but only to around 6% of all such encounters reported by Customs and Border Patrol since 2022.
• Particularly galling for Canadians: Trump invoked national security to invoke 10% tariffs on a U.S. adversary, China, and 25% on arguably its closest ally.

Driving the news: Trudeau declared more than $100 billion in retaliatory tariffs in a televised address on Saturday night that included appeals to Americans' wallets and their heartstrings.

• "Tariffs against Canada will put your jobs at risk," he warned.
• "From the beaches of Normandy to the mountains of the Korean Peninsula, from the fields of Flanders to the streets of Kandahar, we have fought and died alongside you during your darkest hours," he lamented.
• Trudeau also advised Canadians to reject American products in solidarity.

Between the lines: For most Americans, the trade war will likely manifest mostly through higher prices on certain goods, such as lumber (and by extension, homebuilding). Canadian oil is subject to a lower tariff, to limit any rise in gas prices.

• For Canada, which sends 75% of its exports to the U.S., the economic peril is greater.
• Trump is well aware of that dynamic.

What they're saying: "We don't need anything they have," Trump claimed, contending that without the help of the U.S., Canada "ceases to exist as a viable Country."

• "Harsh but true! Therefore, Canada should become our Cherished 51st State," he taunted.
• Vice President Vance also portrayed Canada as a friendly freeloader, taking advantage of its proximity to the U.S. while not hitting NATO's 2% spending target.
• "Spare me the sob story about how Canada is our 'best friend."

What's next: Trump plans to speak with Trudeau and Mexican officials today.

The bottom line: If you had to pick a country to share a 5,000-mile border with, you could hardly do better than Canada. But Trump is proving that even the closest of friendships can turn frosty.

Investigators have recovered the black boxes of the passenger jet involved in a collision with an Army helicopter near Reagan National Airport outside D.C. — the deadliest aviation disaster in the U.S. in more than 20 years.

The big picture: The American Airlines passenger jet with 64 people on board and U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopter carrying three soldiers collided on Wednesday night, sending both aircraft plunging into the Potomac River. There are no known survivors.

• The rescue mission shifted to a recovery operation early Thursday, but at least a dozen people were still missing by day's end. Investigators are working to determine the exact cause of the crash.
• The airport resumed flight operations Thursday morning, but dozens of flights have been delayed or cancelled since. Passengers were advised to check with their airlines for specific flight information.
• Reagan National Airport has the country's busiest runway — which has long caused concerns about overcrowding at the airport and understaffing among air traffic controllers, Axios D.C.'s Mimi Montgomery reports.

Go deeper: Here's what we know about the victims ... How D.C.'s first and last responders are recovering the dead

Situation report: The National Transportation Safety Board intends to have a preliminary report on the crash within 30 days, board member Todd Inman said during a briefing Thursday afternoon.

• "We do not know enough facts to be able to rule in or out human factor, mechanical factors," Inman said.
• President Trump delivered remarks from the White House earlier Thursday afternoon, briefly calling for national unity before attacking his Democratic predecessors and blaming DEI policies for the crash.

Reality check: Statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau and IPUMS show air traffic controllers and airfield operations specialists are predominately male and white. Go deeper.

Zoom in: The president later signed a memorandum in keeping with an earlier one ordering the Transportation secretary and FAA administrator "to review all hiring decisions and changes to safety protocols" made during the previous four years.

• It also directs them "to take such corrective action as necessary to achieve uncompromised aviation safety, including the replacement of any individuals who do not meet qualification standards," Trump added in the memo.

Catch up quick: Remnants of the two aircraft discovered included the fuselage of the American Airlines commercial plane, which was found in three sections in "waist-deep" water, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said at a briefing Thursday morning.

• Rescue operations along the frigid river began soon after the crash, around 9pm ET. Some 300 people were involved in those efforts, per John Donnelly, chief of D.C. Fire and EMS.

Speculation mounts on "absolute tragedy"

"Everything was standard in the leadup to the crash," Duffy said, while declining to speculate about where things went so tragically wrong.

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in a video statement Thursday the Army unit involved in the collision, the 12th Aviation Battalion, was placed on a 48-hour operational pause while the incident is reviewed.
• Army Secretary nominee Dan Driscoll called the incident an "absolute tragedy" during a hearing before the U.S. Senate Committee on Armed Services. "We might need to look at where is an appropriate time to take training risk and it may not be near an airport like Reagan," he added.
• The New York Times reported Thursday that the helicopter flew outside its approved flight path and that the air traffic controller was juggling two jobs.

How the crash happened

American Eagle Flight 5342, traveling from Wichita, was approaching DCA, sometimes described as having America's busiest runway.

• Visibility was good at the time of the crash, with winds blowing out of the northwest. An advisory for high winds had expired earlier in the evening.
• Both the jet and the helicopter were following "standard flight patterns," Duffy told reporters.
• Hegseth noted the helicopter was manned by a "fairly experienced crew" that was appropriately equipped with night vision goggles.

The U.S. Army UH-60 helicopter was on a training exercise out of Fort Belvoir, Virginia, a Pentagon spokesperson said.

• The helicopter was told to maintain visual separation with the plane — essentially, "see and avoid," Axios aviation expert Alex Fitzpatrick notes. That's not an unusual procedure, despite a Truth Social post from Trump questioning why the control tower hadn't given more direct instructions.
• It's also not unusual to see Black Hawks flying low along the Potomac. This is some of America's busiest airspaces due to the presence of both military and commercial aircraft.

What remains unclear is why the helicopter did not divert from its path and collided with the jet as it made its final descent.

• "Do I think this was preventable? Absolutely," Duffy said, without offering specifics.

Who was on board

U.S. Figure Skating confirmed "several" of its members were on board, as well as family members of some athletes returning from a development camp in Wichita.

• The Kremlin confirmed Russian figure skaters and other citizens were on board and China's state media reported two Chinese citizens were on the plane, which was carrying 60 passengers and four crew.
• Officials and family confirmed Ryan O'Hara, the crew chief of the helicopter, and Chief Warrant Officer 2 Andrew Eaves were two of the three service members aboard the helicopter.

Recovery operations continue

Recovery efforts are ongoing in and around the Potomac. Based on an initial count, around 30 people had yet to be recovered as of Thursday morning.

• Dive teams scoured the site as helicopters from law enforcement agencies across the region flew over the scene in a methodical search for bodies, per AP.

Deadly plane crashes in the U.S.

Fatal crashes of commercial aircraft in the U.S. have become a rarity.

• The last was in 2009 near Buffalo, N.Y. All 49 passengers and crew above Colgan Air Flight 3407 were killed when the Bombardier DHC-8 propeller plane crashed into a house. A person on the ground also was killed.
• Other than the Pentagon attack on 9/11, last night's collision is the worst air tragedy in the D.C. area since the Air Florida Flight 90 crash on Jan. 13, 1982, which killed 78 when it hit the 14th Street Bridge and crashed into the Potomac.

This story has been updated throughout and will continue to be updated as new information comes in.

A workforce discombobulated by chaotic recent events receives an email with the subject line "Fork in the Road." Inside, a deadline to quit or commit to the new mission.

• That's the scenario Twitter employees faced in November 2022 — and the one now confronting some 2.3 million government workers.

Why it matters: If Musk's takeover of Washington is anything like his takeover of Twitter, federal workers — and Americans more generally — had better buckle up. His "slash first, ask questions later" management style has already been reflected in some of President Trump's biggest moves.

The big picture: Federal workers received that email on Tuesday from the Office of Personnel Management, effectively the executive branch's HR department.

• The upper echelons of that fairly obscure agency are now packed with Musk allies and loyalists, many of whom have worked at his companies or in tech more broadly, the NYT reports.
• Cutting the federal workforce is part of Musk's mandate at DOGE, and he appears to see the OPM — which he visited last Friday — as a key vehicle.
• The email, scooped by Axios, gave federal workers nine days to quit and be paid through September or embrace a new "performance culture" — and accept the risk their jobs could be cut or downsized later. It had Musk's fingerprints all over it.

Flashback: Some Twitter employees who left in the chaotic period after Musk purchased the company, renamed it X and fired or drove out thousands of workers say they were promised severance packages that failed to materialize. Some have sued, Axios' Scott Rosenberg notes.

• There are key differences here: Musk doesn't own the U.S. government and can't just order mass firings. Also, many federal workers belong to unions.
• "We are all shaking our heads in disbelief at how familiar this all feels," former top Twitter engineer Yao Yue told Wired. "Except, the federal government and its employees have specific laws in terms of spending, hiring, and firing."

State of play: Some unions and Democratic lawmakers have urged workers not to take the buyouts.

• "If you accept that offer and resign, he'll stiff you," Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) warned, referring to Trump's history of refusing to pay contractors.
• The offer also sparked immediate concerns about how government departments will continue to function properly if large numbers of highly knowledgeable workers leave.

Similar "brain drain" concerns loomed large over the Twitter saga.

• While Musk and his allies claimed vindication in how Twitter continued to function after the employee exodus, the platform was plagued by tech glitches and frustrations over the non-responsive support team.
• Musk ultimately asked some employees he fired to come back, and some blue chip advertisers fled the platform after Musk's radical changes.
• Still, the site survived and X today undoubtedly remains a powerful platform — albeit a very different one.

Zoom out: Applying such radical, sudden changes at the scale of the federal government is far more difficult — as the second Trump administration learned this week when it issued then rescinded a sweeping memo freezing hundreds of billions in spending.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said at her first press briefing that the National Security Council was "looking into" the potential security implications of AI breakthroughs from China's DeepSeek, which have rocked Silicon Valley and Wall Street this week.

Why it matters: DeepSeek's low-cost but highly advanced models have shaken the consensus that the U.S. had a strong lead in the AI race with China. Responding to a question from Axios' Mike Allen, Leavitt said President Trump saw this as a "wake-up call" for the U.S. AI industry, but remained confident "we'll restore American dominance."

• Leavitt said she had personally discussed the matter with the NSC earlier on Tuesday.

Driving the news: DeepSeek's app rocketed to #1 in Apple's app store on Sunday night, surpassing U.S. rival ChatGPT in daily downloads.

• Its emergence also tanked the stock of AI chipmaker Nvidia because the Chinese startup's success suggests fewer highly advanced chips may be needed to develop cutting-edge AI than previously thought.

Between the lines: Beyond the economic effects on America's most valuable tech companies, all of which have invested heavily in AI, it's unclear what precisely the national security ramifications might be.

• Some users have reported that its chatbots are unwilling to discuss human rights abuses in China or events like Tiananmen Square.

What they're saying: In the combative tone that characterized much of her first briefing, Leavitt claimed the Biden administration "sat on its hands and allowed China to rapidly develop this AI program," while Trump had moved quickly to appoint an AI czar and loosen regulations on the AI industry.

Reality check: President Biden imposed a string of executive orders to restrict the access of Chinese firms to top-of-the-line chips and the tools needed to make them, precisely to preserve the U.S. advantages in both semiconductors and AI development.

• DeepSeek had already obtained some of Nvidia's more advanced chips before those restrictions came into force but still says it managed to develop its model with far less money and computing power than its American rivals.
• DeepSeek's breakthroughs suggest America's strategy of withholding technology from China might just be speeding up the evolution of its rival's AI knowhow, Axios' Scott Rosenberg reports.

The federal government is going MAGA — fast.

Why it matters: President Trump has only been in office a week, but the departments under his command are moving with blazing speed to transform the federal bureaucracy into an army of loyalists.

• The new administration immediately moved to freeze nearly all foreign aid, root out DEI programs, remove officials and whole offices deemed ideologically suspect, and muzzle public health agencies.
• "We're getting rid of all of the cancer ... caused by the Biden administration," Trump told reporters while signing a Day One executive order that stripped employment protections from civil servants.

Driving the news: Late Friday night, the White House fired 17 inspectors general — independent agency watchdogs responsible for identifying fraud, waste and corruption.

• The mass firings, relayed via email, appear to violate a federal law that requires the administration to notify Congress 30 days before removing inspectors general.
• Amid outrage from Democrats and ethics experts, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) — a Trump ally and longtime advocate for whistleblowers — called on the president to explain his decision to Congress.

Zoom in: DEI offices and programs have been shuttered across the government, including at the CIA, Department of Veterans Affairs, Army and Air Force, and the Federal Aviation Administration.

• Federal workers have been ordered to report colleagues who may seek to "disguise" DEI efforts by using "coded language."
• And Trump directed federal agencies to each identify "up to nine" major companies, universities or non-profits to investigate over their DEI practices.

There have been hundreds of staff removals or reassignments, including at the State Department, where far more career officers were asked to resign than in past administrations.

• The Department of Justice reassigned at least 15 senior career officials, including a top counterintelligence attorney involved in the FBI's investigation of classified documents Trump stashed at Mar-a-Lago.
• The DOJ also rescinded job offers to recent law school graduates who were placed through the Attorney General's Honors program.
• Trump's National Security Council sent home around 160 staffers while Trump officials conducted loyalty screenings to ensure they're aligned with his agenda.
• One of the administration's highest-profile firings so far was Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Linda Fagan, the first woman to lead a branch of the U.S. military. She was accused of leadership failures and an "excessive focus" on DEI at the Coast Guard Academy.

Between the lines: Trump loyalists have also moved to centralize control around public messaging, particularly when it comes to public health.

• The Department of Health and Human Services ordered an unprecedented "immediate pause" on all health reports and social media posts through at least the end of the month, leading scientists to cancel CDC meetings on the escalating bird flu outbreak.
• The Pentagon also ordered a global pause on all official social media posts until the confirmation of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who has promised a radical culture shakeup across the U.S. military.

The new administration is also moving quickly on issues including LGBTQ and civil rights.

• The State Department froze all passport applications with "X" designated as the gender.
• DOJ ordered a freeze on civil rights litigation and is weighing a potential reversal of police reform agreements negotiated by the Biden administration.
• It also ordered federal prosecutors to investigate local and state officials in so-called "sanctuary cities."
• Meanwhile, the Pentagon moved to abolish an office set up during the Biden administration focused on curbing civilian deaths in combat operations.

Zoom out: Trump made no secret of his intentions to build a MAGA-aligned federal workforce during the campaign, and he quickly imposed a hiring freeze after taking office.

• The vast majority of federal workers are career employees, not political appointments, but the president has made clear he wants them all to board the Trump train.
• His administration is currently testing the ability to email the entire federal government workforce from a single email address.

What to watch: Trump's nominee to lead the Office of Management and Budget, Russ Vought, will be a key architect of the White House's efforts to re-engineer the administrative state.

• Vought has assailed "the woke and weaponized bureaucracy," and said in a 2023 speech to his conservative think tank that he wants to put federal bureaucrats "in trauma," ProPublica reported.
• "When they wake up in the morning, we want them to not want to go to work because they are increasingly viewed as the villains," Vought said — comments he defended during his confirmation hearing.

The U.S Secret Service says it was their agents, not Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents that showed up at a Chicago Public School (CPS) on the city's South Side Friday.

Why it matters: These were the first reports of agents turning up at a school after the Trump administration announced this week that it would change immigration enforcement policies to allow arrests at schools, churches and hospitals.

• Due to a misunderstanding CPS officials had initially reported denying entry to ICE agents Friday morning.
• The Secret Service agents were "investigating a threat made against a government official we protect," USSS spokesperson Anthony Guglielmi said in a statement.
• He said the agents "identified themselves to the school principal and provided business cards " but "we do not investigate nor enforce immigration laws."

The big picture: Trump's policy change has some parents of undocumented children reconsidering whether to send them to school, AP reports.

• The school, Hamline Elementary, is in a predominantly Mexican-American neighborhood.
• Like many school districts, CPS does not ask students for their immigration status and does not coordinate with immigration enforcement agencies.

How it happened: CPS officials explained late Friday that the confusion stemmed from the agents' presentation of identification from the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees both ICE and the Secret Service. 

• "While this was a misunderstanding in terms of the specific branch of DHS, the school's response demonstrates that our system, in partnership with community organizations, is prepared and ready to keep our students and staff safe," a CPS spokesperson said.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with the latest.

President Biden plans to write a book after leaving office, the White House confirmed to Axios, giving him an opportunity to try and shape the narrative around his presidency and the tumultuous weeks leading to his historic withdrawal from the 2024 race.

Why it matters: There's a glut of reporting coming out on Biden's fateful decision to run again in 2024 and ultimately step aside after his disastrous debate with President-elect Trump — most of it unflattering to the 82-year-old president.

• Biden's own version of those events has hardly registered, beyond his contentious claims that he could have beaten Trump.
• If the book project comes to fruition, it will be a chance for Biden to lay out, in full, his views on what he accomplished and why he handled the 2024 cycle the way he did.
• NBC News first reported that Biden was planning a book. A White House spokesperson confirmed the plans but did not provide additional details.

Between the lines: Biden was remarkably successful at holding his party together and passing consequential legislation during most of his term. He continues to contend that history will look kindly upon his four years in office.

• But he's leaving under a cloud, and handing power back to the man he vanquished in 2020 and condemned as a danger to American democracy.
• A widespread belief has set in among Democrats that by clinging on for too long, Biden helped doom his party — and the country — to a second Trump presidency.
• Biden, his family members, and some of his longtime aides disagree. He told USA Today last week that he still thinks he would have beaten Trump, while conceding he's not certain he could have handled the rigors of the presidency for four more years given his age.

Denmark sent private messages in recent days to President-elect Trump's team expressing willingness to discuss boosting security in Greenland or increasing the U.S. military presence on the island, two sources with knowledge of the issue tell Axios.

Why it matters: Trump's refusal to rule out military force to take control of Greenland was effectively a threat to invade a longstanding NATO ally. Those comments caught Copenhagen and many other European capitals off guard.

The big picture: Greenland (pop. 56,000) is largely autonomous, but Denmark maintains responsibility for defense.

• Trump has repeatedly declared that controlling Greenland — the world's largest island — is necessary for U.S. national security vis-a-vis Russia and China. His son Don Jr. visited Greenland this week bearing MAGA hats.
• Climate change is opening up the Arctic for competition between superpowers, and could also make it easier to tap Greenland's mineral riches.

Between the lines: The Danish government wants to convince Trump, including through the messages passed to his advisers this week, that his security concerns can be addressed without claiming Greenland for the U.S.

• One European diplomat told Axios that Denmark is widely seen as one of the closest allies of the U.S. within the EU, and no one could have imagined it would be the first country with which Trump would pick a fight.

Driving the news: Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and her Greenlandic counterpart Múte Egede met on Friday in Copenhagen to discuss the situation.

• In a press conference after the meeting Frederiksen said she asked for a meeting with Trump. Egede said he is also ready to talk to the president-elect.
• "Greenland is for the Greenlandic people. We do not want to be Danish, we do not want to be American. We want to be Greenlandic," Egede, an advocate for independence, said at the press conference.

Behind the scenes: The sources said the Danish government wants to avoid a public clash with the new U.S. administration, and asked members of the Trump team for clarification regarding what exactly the president-elect meant in his comments earlier this week.

• In the messages passed to the Trump team, the Danish government made clear Greenland was not for sale but expressed readiness to discuss any other U.S. request regarding the island, the sources said.
• The U.S. already has a military base on Greenland and an agreement with Denmark dating to 1951 on defending the island, under which an increase of U.S. forces could easily be discussed.
• Danish officials have already said they are looking into further measures to increase investment in military infrastructure and capabilities in Greenland, in consultation with the Greenlandic government.

Zoom out: Greenland played a key role in NATO and U.S. defenses during the Cold War as part of an early warning system to detect Soviet submarines, or potentially missiles.

• With new sea lanes opening up as climate change reshapes the Arctic, Greenland's geography is becoming all the more important.
• But if Trump's real concern is security, there's no reason the U.S. couldn't simply increase its military presence and capabilities in Greenland under its alliance with Denmark, contends Malte Humpert, a founder and senior fellow at the Arctic Institute.

What to watch: Secretary of State Blinken downplayed Trump's comments and said there's no point wasting time on them. "It is not a good idea and it is not going to happen," Blinken said.

• But Trump's continued comments about this issue, and his son's visit, mean Danish and Greenlandic officials can't rule out the possibility that Trump is quite serious.

The bottom line: The main question is whether Trump would be content to cut a deal with Denmark and declare victory, or whether his true mission is to become the first president in 80 years to gain new territory for the U.S.

Elon Musk hijacked British politics this week with a stream of at least 60 X posts since Tuesday attacking Prime Minister Keir Starmer, defending an anti-Islam campaigner and endorsing the far-right Reform Party.

Why it matters: The right-hand man to America's next president has gone after the leaders of several of its closest allies in recent months. But his fight with the British government is turning into the nastiest yet.

• While Musk's X microphone was enough to send Westminster into a frenzy, there's been intense speculation he'll also open his checkbook for Reform and its Trump-aligned leader, Nigel Farage.
• Musk told Axios' Mike Allen he had yet to donate and wasn't sure whether that would be legal. "But I have voiced my opinion that the status quo parties are not the right move," Musk added.

That's an understatement.

• In the most recent of several attacks on Starmer, Musk labeled him "Keir Starmtrooper," and shared a meme claiming the PM was more concerned about policing social media posts than rape.
• That was part of a barrage of tweets attacking British political and legal establishment for failing to adequately investigate alleged child sex abuse rings — most infamously one in the town of Rochdale, in which dozens of young girls were raped between 2004 to 2013.
• Some on the right have argued the abuse was swept under the rug because the perpetrators were predominantly of Pakistani origin.

What he's saying: Musk claimed another Labour minister, Jess Phillips, belonged "in prison" for rejecting the idea of a national probe of historic child sexual abuse. She argued it should be handled at the local level.

• Seizing on Musk's momentum, Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch said Thursday that a national investigation was "long overdue." Her own party was in power from 2010 until Starmer's landslide victory in July.
• Musk tweeted that the election should be re-run, and that "only Reform can save Britain."

Zoom in: Musk also called for the release of anti-Islam activist Tommy Robinson, a figure so controversial in Britain that even Farage has distanced himself from him.

• Robinson, best known for organizing anti-immigration demonstrations, was jailed for 18 months in October for contempt of court, for breaching a court order by repeating defamatory claims about a teenage Syrian refugee.
• Musk shared more than a dozen tweets praising Robinson.

Flashback: Robinson was accused of helping spark far-right riots over the summer by falsely suggesting the perpetrator of a stabbing attack was Muslim and encouraging his followers to "hit the streets."

• After the riots, Musk tweeted: "Civil war is inevitable."

Zoom out: Musk also kicked up a furor in Germany last week by endorsing the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) ahead of snap elections next month.

• Chancellor Olaf Scholz rebuked him in a New Year's address, saying the election must be decided by Germany's citizens, not "owners of social media channels."
• Musk also labeled Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau an "insufferable tool." On Thursday, he shared a "great interview" with Trudeau's conservative rival, Pierre Poilievre.

What to watch: Farage told The Telegraph of London, after he and Musk met last month, that he expected the world's richest man to donate "a reasonable amount" to his party.

• As a foreigner, Musk can't donate directly — though he could through a U.K. business, such as the British arm of X. The U.K.'s elections watchdog is now calling on the government to cap donations, with Musk in mind.
• Musk told Axios he's unsure of the legality of any potential donations.

Go deeper: Berlin accuses Elon Musk of seeking to influence Germany's election

Just 19% of Americans believe the country is heading in the right direction as 2024 comes to a close, per Gallup's latest monthly survey.

Why it matters: Gallup's monthly data reveals a deep-seated pessimism among Americans about their country. You'd have to go back two decades to find a time when half of Americans felt the U.S. was on the right track.

• The last time even 30% of Americans felt the U.S. was heading in the right direction was summer 2021.

By the numbers: December's finding was down from 26% in October, largely because satisfaction among Democrats has fallen from 47% to 30% since the election.

• Only 9% of Republicans think the country is on the right track. That number jumped from 5% in October to 16% in November before sliding back down.
• 19% is the lowest result since July. The 2024 peak was 26% in October.
• President Biden's approval rose to 39% from 37% in November.

Flashback: Gallup's highest-ever finding (71%) came in Feb. 1999, while the lowest (7%) came in Oct. 2008, during the financial crisis.

Between the lines: The pessimism about the direction of the country comes despite a fairly positive economic trajectory.

• The percentage of Americans who view the economy as the main problem with the U.S. has fallen steadily in recent months, per Gallup.
• Democrats tend to cite President-elect Trump as a top concern, Republicans are more worried about immigration, and respondents from both parties still have concerns about inflation.

Zoom out: Americans are sending mixed messages across the economic spectrum.

• Consumer confidence surged in November as Republicans cheered Trump's victory, but then pulled back in December.
• Retail sales over the holiday look better than the National Retail Federation forecast, but not great for brick-and-mortar stores.

President-elect Trump's inauguration is drawing donations from an array of blue-chip companies, and it's likely to exceed all past ceremonies in terms of fundraising.

Why it matters: This is a chance to earn goodwill from Trump, including for companies that distanced themselves from him in the past.

Driving the news: Toyota announced a $1 million donation on Tuesday, matching the amounts pledged by Ford and General Motors. Both U.S. carmakers also will provide vehicles for the ceremony.

• Silicon Valley is also pitching in: Amazon, Meta, and OpenAI each promised $1 million, while Uber is donating $2 million. Some of those donations are coming from their CEOs rather than from the companies themselves.
• Wall Street donors include Goldman Sachs and Bank of America.
• Crypto exchanges Kraken and Coinbase are getting in on the action too.
• Also cutting seven-figure checks, per the WSJ: AT&T, Charter Communications, Stanley Black & Decker, Intuit, Charter Communications, Pratt Industries and The PhRMA trade group.

Flashback: Several of the companies suspended political donations after Jan. 6 or released statements saying they would reconsider their approaches, WSJ reports.

• Four years later, some companies that denounced the insurrection are giving more to Trump's inauguration than they ever have for previous ceremonies.
• "People just really want to move forward and move on. The election results were very clear," a rep for one of the companies told WSJ, which adds that some statements condemning Jan. 6 have disappeared from company webpages.

What to watch: Trump's inauguration also is on pace to raise considerably more money than President Biden's in 2021.

• That's a possible sign that companies see Trump as a more transactional figure, and they hope donating to his inauguration will improve their standing heading into the new term.

Go deeper: Dems' plan inauguration boycott

President-elect Trump has big plans to make America greater, in terms of square mileage.

Why it matters: Trump has been in a strikingly imperial mood since his election victory. He has floated acquiring Greenland, reclaiming the Panama Canal, annexing Canada, and potentially invading Mexico — to the intense consternation of their leaders.

• In each case, Trump is blending trolling, negotiation and intimidation.
• He pitched statehood for Canada at least in part to needle "Governor" Justin Trudeau.
• But he has doubled down in the last 48 hours (including via memes) on taking over Greenland and claiming the Panama Canal. It's unclear how exactly either would be accomplished short of an invasion.

Between the lines: This is Trump's foreign policy playbook, or lack thereof. He says wild stuff, sometimes acts on it, and often doesn't.

• Prepare for whiplash after four years of President Biden extolling alliances and institutions.
• Trump has little regard for the "global order," and thinks throwing foreign partners off balance — or, when possible, steamrolling them — better serves American interests.
• Even if his proposals aren't always entirely serious, they can't be ignored.

State of play: Greenland's prime minister, Múte Egede, hit back at Trump on Monday: "Greenland is ours. We are not for sale and will never be for sale. We must not lose our long struggle for freedom."

• A day earlier, Trump had labeled taking "ownership" of the world's largest island "an absolute necessity."
• People involved in Trump's transition have been discussing how an acquisition or custodianship of Greenland would work, according to Reuters.
• The island's attractions include its natural resources and its location, as the U.S., Russia and other powers scramble for footholds in the Arctic.

Flashback: It was widely treated as a joke when Trump first floated buying Greenland in 2019.

• Then Trump canceled a trip to Denmark, which controls Greenland as an overseas territory, after Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen rebuffed him.

Meanwhile, Trump pronounced Saturday that the U.S. would "demand that the Panama Canal be returned to us" if fees for U.S. ships to transit the waterway — which the U.S. returned to Panamanian control beginning in 1977 — were not reduced.

• Panama President José Raúl Mulino declared in an on-camera address Sunday that Panama would not hand over a single square meter of the canal, to which Trump replied on Truth Social: "We'll see about that!"
• Trump followed up with a picture of an American flag flying over the canal, captioned: "Welcome to the United States Canal!"
• Trump also cited "China," which increasingly dominates trade throughout the Americas, as a reason to take control of the canal.

Zoom out: That's the second time this month that Trump proposed a land grab in the context of trying to renegotiate trade terms.

• Trump previously told Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that his country could avoid tariffs if it became America's 51st state — a message he has repeatedly re-upped through memes and jokes.

But it's not all fun and games. Trump's allies have also been discussing a potential "soft invasion" of Mexico, as one adviser phrased it to Rolling Stone. That could involve targeting cartels through cross-border special forces operations or drone strikes.

• Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum called that idea "entirely a movie" and said: "of course we do not agree with an invasion or the presence of this type in our country."
• But Trump's picks to run the State Department, Pentagon, National Security Council and border policy have all endorsed some form of U.S. military operation against the cartels.

The bottom line: America First is colliding with American imperialism. No one, including Trump, really knows how it will all play out.

Fearing political retribution and strained by new business challenges, media companies that once covered President-elect Trump with skepticism — and in many cases, disdain — are reconsidering their approach.

Why it matters: Trump's decisive victory in November has forced media executives to put their business interests ahead of their personal politics.

Case-in-point: Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos, a longtime Democrat whose wife served as the ambassador to the Bahamas during the Obama administration, met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago this past week.

• "Morning Joe" co-hosts Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski, who railed against Trump for years, met with Trump in an hour-plus meeting at Mar-a-Lago last month, infuriating their loyal audience. Scarborough said the reaction showed "a massive disconnect ... between social media and the real world."

State of play: Amid a record media trust deficit, outlets once critical of Trump are now making overtures to the former and future president, and the majority of American voters who voted for him.

• TIME magazine not only named Trump "Person of the Year," but the magazine's CEO, Jessica Sibley, chanted "USA! USA!" alongside the president-elect as he rang the New York Stock Exchange opening bell.
• A week after Trump's victory, two executives from TelevisaUnivision, the parent of the largest U.S.-based Spanish-language broadcaster, flew to Mar-a-Lago so the president-elect could personally thank them for election support, The Wall Street Journal reported.
• L.A. Times owner Patrick Soon-Shiong vowed (on Fox News, no less) to balance out his editorial board with conservative voices. He also has discussed plans to add a digital "bias meter" for editorials and opinion columns.
• Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos (who, like Soon-Shiong, overruled his staff to kill a Harris endorsement) said at The New York Times' DealBook Summit earlier this month that he's "actually very optimistic" about Trump's second term.

The big picture: Compare that to the resistance media era that started in 2016, with outlets like The Washington Post garnering tough-on-Trump reputations (and thousands of subscriptions).

• This time around, national outlets — struggling to regain viewers and subscribers — are trying to signal they're no longer out for blood.

Between the lines: Another business consideration for news outlets reversing course is the legal risks associated with getting on Trump's bad side.

• ABC's $15 million defamation settlement with Trump shocked some legal experts who say ABC could've easily won the case. ABC has declined to say why it settled. But media onlookers see the settlement as a possible effort to avoid further scrutiny and legal attacks from the president-elect.
• The settlement comes amid a barrage of major lawsuits being lobbed at media companies by Trump. Those costly lawsuits sap outlets of time, legal resources and morale.

What we're watching: Tech titans facing historic regulatory scrutiny are also scrambling to be inside Trump's tent this time around.

• Meta, Amazon and Open AI have each donated $1 million to Trump's inauguration. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew, Apple CEO Tim Cook, Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Bezos have all met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago since the election.
• TikTok faces a potential ban in the U.S., barring a Supreme Court intervention. Meta faces a historic government antitrust trial next year that seeks to unwind its acquisitions of WhatsApp and Instagram.
• Google has been found guilty of one major antitrust investigation around its search business and is facing another antitrust case around its ads business. Both cases threaten to break up the company.