Andrew Ross Sorkin has been quietly working on this for eight years: He'll be out this fall with "1929: The Inside Story of the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History," told as an immersive, electrifying "tale of power, psychology, and the seductive illusion that 'this time is different.'"
Think of it as a prequel "Too Big to Fail," Sorkin's definitive history of the 2008 banking crisis, which was on the New York Times bestseller list for over six months.
Why it matters: "The billionaires of today who are increasingly intertwined with government are not that different than the titans of that era," Sorkin told me.
Sorkin — co-anchor of CNBC's "Squawk Box," and award-winning New York Times journalist and founder of DealBook — told me he "started work on the book in 2017 — and actually even earlier."
He had become "obsessed with chronicling 1929 as a human drama — an inside-the-room, tick-tock account of the decisions, miscalculations and desperate maneuvers of Wall Street and Washington."
"I combed through thousands of diaries and letters and transcripts," added Sorkin, also co-creator of Showtime's "Billions."
"The characters are colorful — and some eerily similar — to those that lead our institutions today. The narrative is an attempt to make one of the most well-known, but largely abstract, financial crises accessible to the modern public and policymakers, in the hope that history doesn't once again repeat itself."
What they're saying: The announcement from Viking, the publisher, says "1929," out Oct. 14, has "the depth of a classic history and the drama of a thriller," and "unravels the greed, blind optimism and human folly that led to an era-defining collapse."
Sorkin's drama contains "disregarded alarm bells, financiers who fell from grace, and skeptics who saw the crash coming — only to be dismissed until it was too late."
Whether you admire — or abhor — President Trump's boundary-busting first month in office (today = Day 30), it's important to see with clear eyes what's truly stretching the law and shaking long-held traditions of White House occupants before him.
Why it matters: As we've written before, every "unprecedented" move becomes a new precedent for future presidents. Trump supporters should expect Democratic presidents in the future to use the same new tactics and legal interpretations against them. So understanding each move matters.
The big picture: U.S. presidents face very few restraints. They're free of conflict of interest laws, enjoy the presumption of immunity in all official acts, and have wide latitude to impose their agenda.
So it's worth paying attention when Trump says, as he did over the weekend on Truth Social and X: "He who saves his Country does not violate any Law."
That followed Vice President Vance saying on X: "Judges aren't allowed to control the executive's legitimate power." Vance's comment is technically correct. But when taken together, the quotes suggest a belief there are few practical or legal restraints on a president. This isn't a new theory: Several Republican-appointed members of the Supreme Court have long held very elastic views of presidential power.
Also important to note: Trump did promise in the Oval Office, a few days before his post about saving the country, that he'll always abide by court rulings — "and we'll appeal."
So after one month in office and a dizzying amount of rhetoric and real action, what has Trump done that truly pulls America into uncharted waters? (This is our attempt to help readers sift out the hyperbolic reactions, and instead focus on legitimate boundary-busting actions worthy of deeper reflection.)
1. Claiming power clearly granted to Congress. This might seem like a nerdy social studies argument, but it's massive in consequence. The Constitution clearly gives Congress the power to allow and then set spending for the federal government. Take it away, and Congress is left as a weakened branch of government.
Trump has dismantled USAID ... moved to shut down the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau ... tried to freeze trillions of dollars in federal grants and loans ... targeted at least 20,000 federal jobs ... and on Tuesday signed an executive order to rein in independent agencies by declaring that "all executive branch officials and employees are subject to his supervision." The order is "a further challenge to congressional authority," The Wall Street Journal notes, and "may conflict with the autonomy Congress has granted agencies such as the FTC, the Consumer Product Safety Commission and the National Labor Relations Board."
The Supreme Court, one dominated by conservatives in 1975, ruled unanimously that a president couldn't "impound" congressionally authorized funds, as President Richard Nixon had tried to do.
Congress could stymie presidential actions like this. But this Congress, controlled by Republicans, is ceding its power to check Trump.
2. Rewriting an actual Constitutional amendment. Trump is already locked in a court fight after seeking to unilaterally rewrite — again by executive order — the 14th Amendment, which grants birthright citizenship to those born here.
Trump wants to exclude babies born to mothers who are in the country without authorization. Four federal judges have blocked this executive order. This one is likely headed to the Supreme Court.
3. Firing watchdogs. President Trump has fired a lot of people fast, following through on a campaign promise. He has wide latitude to staff the federal government as he sees fit.
But his abrupt sacking of more than a dozen inspectors generals (IGs) appears to violate the law stating he must give 30 days' notice. Again, this might sound nerdy and technical. But IGs were put in place to investigate — independently — "waste, fraud and abuse." Imagine if every new president, instead of leaving experienced IGs in place, simply ousts them and puts in loyalists instead. That is the precedent that could be set here.
4. Empowering Elon. Trump and MAGA supporters love the most inventive business mind of the 21st century rifling through agency budgets and databases to cut spending.
But Musk and DOGE are deep in uncharted waters by gaining access to personal data, and by operating with minimal vetting. Imagine future presidents letting friends set up inside the government, and secretly get the power to see your most sensitive information while they help govern.
5. Profiting from the presidency. This isn't illegal. But it defies a long history of unspoken presidential behavior. Most presidents avoided any actual — or perception of — commingling of their presidential power with personal business deals. Former President Biden took a public beating from Trump and his supporters after it was revealed Biden's son and brother profited off his name and actions.
Three days before taking office, Trump launched a cryptocurrency that, on paper, was worth as much as $50 billion for the Trump family, depending on how you count coins not yet released to market. (Most of the meme coin's value has been erased since then.) No limits keep foreign leaders, or anyone seeking influence, from buying coins to benefit the Trump family.
As The New York Times reported this week, Trump held an Oval Office meeting to help boost a merger between the PGA and LIV pro golf behemoths. Trump's family is a major LIV financial partner.
6. DOJ dictates. Trump supporters seem jazzed by, or at least cool with, more than a half-dozen seasoned Justice Department lawyers quitting instead of helping to kill the corruption indictment of New York Mayor Eric Adams. Trump apparently wants to free Adams to help the administration crack down on immigration, which he can't do from court or jail.
This specific case is unprecedented on its face. This many top U.S. lawyers quitting en masse hasn't happened since the infamous "Saturday Night Massacre" under President Richard Nixon 51 years ago. It begs the question: Will MAGA be cool if the next Democratic president forces Justice officials to do his or her bidding — or quit?
Reality check: Trump has every right to do and say everything unfolding overseas, from taunting Canada to belittling Europe to freezing Ukraine out of his war negotiations.
All presidents are free to conduct foreign policy as they see fit. He can also rid his government of DEI staff and offices, and fire as many unprotected government workers as he chooses. There's a difference between shattering expectations and shattering laws.
Between the lines: Alex Pfeiffer, White House principal deputy communications director, told us everything Trump is doing is democratic — "in fact, the most democratic thing possible. President Trump won the election, made promises in the election and is enacting those promises."
"Elon is a White House employee," Pfeiffer added. "He and political appointees act on behalf of the president to do the things voters voted for. ... Letting bureaucrats run everything is the opposite of democracy."
"President Trump is restoring control to the people ... swiftly enacting what was voted on," Pfeiffer continued. "And that is as democratic as it gets."
Our thought bubble: Axios tries to cover Trump's actions seriously and clinically without overreacting to random social media posts, given his penchant for ephemeral provocation.
Our aim: Arm readers with facts and context for making sense of the velocity of news and change.
The bottom line: The first Trump term seemed unprecedented, and sometimes was. This one is authentically unprecedented in totality.
Elon Musk speaks in the Oval Office last week. Photo: Alex Brandon/AP
The Social Security Administration'stop official resigned over the weekend in the latest clash over the Department of Government Efficiency's (DOGE) access to sensitive government records, theWashington Post reports.
Why it matters: The agency is quickly becoming a target of Elon Musk, who has claimed without conclusive evidence that there's rampant fraud from improper payments to dead people.
Driving the news: Acting commissioner Michelle King, who worked at the agency for over 30 years, left her position after refusing to give DOGE staffers access to sensitive information.
President Trump appointed Leland Dudek — who runs the Social Security Administration's anti-fraud office — as acting commissioner while his permanent pick, Frank Bisignano, awaits Senate confirmation.
Between the lines: "Administration officials have also been skeptical of career employees' efforts to guard federal data, maintaining that political appointees should also be able to access it, particularly if necessary to root out wasteful or erroneous spending," the Post reports.
The Treasury Department's highest-ranking civil servant resigned under similar circumstances last month.
Ask NFL executives their biggest fear, and it has nothing to do with fans, players or TV rights. It's drones — which are hard for authorities to track, and almost impossible to stop if ever unleashed on an open-air stadium.
Ask U.S. intelligence experts their biggest fears, and you'll inevitably hear dire warnings of drone swarms — domestic or foreign — targeting American soil.
Probe deeper, and you'll learn that the vast majority of these drones are made by China — and, therefore, conceivably controllable by America's greatest adversary. TikTok is accused of being a security threat — but it can't spy or drop bombs.
Why it matters: Look at the skies of Syria, Russia — or, many squinted and said, New Jersey — and the future of terrorism and warfare is on vivid display. Drones gather intelligence, guide artillery and shape battle plans.
Between the lines: The NFL's fear is based on gaps in authority among local, state and federal authorities. A league source calls the lack of coordination is "potentially dangerous and unsustainable."
"Laws, regulations and enforcement mechanisms have not caught up with the technology and proliferation of these machines," the source said.
"The general distrust in institutions, and general paranoia about the 'deep state,' makes unidentified flying objects that dwell over our communities particularly menacing. Are we being watched? If so, by whom? And they sound like swarms of insects."
State of play: White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt began her first briefing by confirming something that had long been apparent — last fall's feverish drone spottings in the Northeast were mostly sightings of ... airplanes.
"After research and study, the drones that were flying over New Jersey in large numbers were authorized to be flown by the FAA for research and various other reasons," she said, citing news she'd been told "directly" by President Trump in the Oval Office, and echoing what the Biden administration had contended.
The epidemic of coverage tailed off with the Christmas holidays, as people moved on and the planes kept landing. "Many of these drones were also hobbyists — recreational, and private individuals that enjoy flying drones," Leavitt added. "In time, it got worse, due to curiosity. This was not the enemy."
Reality check: Amid the goofy sightings, the true domestic drone threat is under-discussed, defense executives tell Colin Demarest, author of Axios Future of Defense.
Drones' bloody consequences are apparent in the Middle East, where the U.S. Army has deployed drone zappers in a rush to defend troops.
How it works: Dropping drones is no easy task. It requires spotting, identifying, tracking and intercepting, Colin explains.
That last part can be accomplished with a multimillion-dollar missile (looking at you, Red Sea), bullets, electronic interference or something as primitive as a net or cage.
Drone swarms only complicate this: What's a decoy? What's deadly? Who's the target? Which do you shoot?
What to watch: Jonathan Moneymaker, CEO of BlueHalo, a next-generation defense firm based in Arlington, Virginia, told Colin that as threats escalate from unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), as the FAA calls drones, "our legislation to protect the homeland has not kept pace."
Moneymaker said there's a critical need to empower local authorities, through the Department of Homeland Security, to deploy countermeasures around airports, power stations, military installations and surrounding communities. "We have the technology to be ready," he said. "We need the legislation to catch up. We will either address this before we suffer a major drone attack in [the U.S.], or we will address it after — but we will address it."
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks in the Oval Office on Thursday after being sworn in as Secretary of Health and Human Services. Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
As President Trump nears his term's one-month mark next week, a White House adviser is keeping a calendar tracking daily wins, losses and "jump balls" — and loves the result so far.
Why it matters: Insiders tell us Trump, who came into office feeling ebullient and empowered, is just getting more confident — fueled by his expected clean sweep of Cabinet confirmations, plus a CBS News poll showing 53% approval amid his aggressive "flood the zone" opening actions.
The big picture: The midterm map has gotten more favorable for the GOP with the retirement announcements Thursday by Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) and by Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) a week into Trump's term — two more hot battleground seats for Dems to defend in an already tough cycle.
Privately, there's an undercurrent of worry in Trumpworld that political gravity could weigh him down — especially if inflation rises. The looming debt ceiling and government-funding fights could be messy.
For now, it's foot ... on ... gas. White House communications director Steven Cheung posted a photo of eight news channels simultaneously showing this week's Oval Office colloquy by Trump and Elon Musk and labeled it: "FULL SPECTRUM DOMINANCE."
Behind the scenes: "Trump is reborn," a confidant who spoke with Trump by phone told Caputo.
"Normally, a big part of the conversation is the 'Russia hoax' and stuff like that," the confidant said. "It's gone. Now it's: 'Did you see the CBS poll?' Or it's: 'This person is saying nice things about me.' He feels totally vindicated."
A highlight of Trump's weekwas Russia's release of imprisoned Pennsylvania teacher Marc Fogel, who was flown from Moscow straight to D.C. Fogel met the president on the South Lawn late Tuesday night — an American flag draped around his neck and an Iron City Beer in his hand.
The cameras captured it all."This is Trump the Producer," another confidant told us.
Elon Musk gives a thumbs-up next to Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick (left) and White House deputy chief of staff for policy Stephen Miller during Thursday's Oval Office visit by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Photo: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
Reality check: Offscreen, it's much messier — sometimes intended, sometimes not — as Trump and Elon Musk race to reshape Washington and reset American foreign policy.
Six senior Justice Department officials,including Manhattan's top federal prosecutor, resigned Thursday rather than comply with a Justice Department order to dismiss corruption charges against New York Mayor Eric Adams. (Reuters)
As layoffs swept the bureaucracy, thousands of workers "were laid off in messages delivered through prerecorded videos and on group calls," The Washington Post reports. "Some were ordered to leave the building within 30 minutes. Others were told they would be formally fired by emails, which never arrived."
The Small Business Administration listed a paralegal phone number for laid-off employees to appeal their termination — but the number was an automated line for an apartment building. (WP)
There's much more to come: Musk told the World Governments Summit in Dubai via teleconference that the U.S. needs to "delete entire agencies — many of them." (Video)
A "climate of fear"hit the Kennedy Center as Trump was installed as the chair, succeeding David Rubenstein, and some upcoming shows vanished from the lineup. (WP)
NATO reels: The world's biggest military alliance is in disarray amid new questions about America's commitment to European security after remarks this week by Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. (AP)
"Trump's Whirlwind Now Blows Through Europe," the N.Y. Times' David E. Sanger writes (gift link), pointing to Trump's tariffs, statements on Ukraine by Trump and Hegseth, and Vice President Vance's "America First" AI speech in Paris.
The bottom line: Look for the maximalist Trump to accelerate as more of his confirmed officials ramp up.
President Trump and Elon Musk, arguably the two most unorthodox and influential American leaders of the 21st century, are practicing and fine-tuning a fused theory of governing power:
Masculine maximalism.
Why it matters: Trump and Musk believe powerfully in maximalist action and language — which is being carried out by strong (mostly) white men — as blunt, uncompromising instruments to prove new limits both to power and what's possible.
"Fix Bayonets," Steve Bannon, a first-term Trump official whose "War Room" podcast makes him one of the most widely followed outside MAGA voices, texted us. "We are 'Burning Daylight' — short window to get this done."
Trump, first in business and then politics, and Musk, first in business and now politics, are feeding off each other's natural instincts to do, say and operate by their own new rules.
These instincts made them rich, famous and impervious to traditional rules, norms and even laws. Their success makes dissuasion by others futile, administration officials tell us.
Trump and Musk view masculinity quite similarly: tough-guy language, macho actions, irreverent, crude — and often unmoved by emotionalism, empathy or restraint.
The big picture: So much has happened so fast, in so little time, that it's hard to measure what matters most in the first 24 days of the Trump presidency (not even a month yet!). But stepping way back and appraising the totality of actions, the biggest shift is the instant imposition of this new power theory across all of government and the Republican Party:
There's no opposition to this maximalist approach among Trump's staff or major MAGA media voices. And it's extremely limited among Republican lawmakers: Some have privately expressed concerns about DOGE, and winced at Vice President Vance's salvo about judges not being "allowed to control the executive's legitimate power." But even most GOP senators who expressed initial reservations about Cabinet picks have turned supportive.
Here's the Trump-Musk formula:
1. Power asserted, power claimed: Trump and Musk, much like they did in the private sector, set their own new limits of authority by stating them emphatically and acting aggressively. Trump and Musk have moved to cut at least 10,000 federal workers, while vowing "large-scale reductions in force (RIFs)" as part of "workforce reform" ... and offered deferred resignation packages to more than 2 million federal workers. (A federal judge on Wednesday let the "buyout" program proceed. 75,000 workers have taken the deal.)
Trump, after campaigning as an American First hardliner, often sounds like limitless expansionist: saying the U.S. would "take over" Gaza ... and pushing to buy Greenland, make Canada the 51st state and take back the Panama Canal.
2. Precedents are for chumps: Both think conventional, polite, rule-following CEOs and leaders are suckers and conformists. They believe wimps and posers play by the rules, worry about hurt feelings or damaged lives, and seek consensus. So far, Trump and Musk have every reason to feel vindicated: Most Republicans in Congress have sat by idly, or applauded gleefully, as the two laid claim to congressional powers of the purse and scrutinizing Cabinet picks.
Trump and Musk are freezing programs and firing federal employees — with scant scrutiny and little transparency. A Wall Street Journal editorial points out that Trump deliberately incited legal challenges with his executive order ending birthright citizenship, and by firing a member of the National Labor Relations Board: "Trump believes he'll win on both issues because he thinks previous Supreme Court rulings were wrongly decided." The Journal says Trump is on new legal ground by targeting the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and USAID — both of which were established by Congress.
3. Let men be men: Yes, there are some powerful women around Trump — led by White House chief of staff Susie Wiles.
But the vast majority of the public and private action is carried about by aggressive, white men, including Musk and his all-male DOGE posse; Stephen Miller, a White House deputy chief of staff who also is homeland security adviser and immigration lead; and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, the former Fox News star and decorated Army combat veteran who's bringing some of Trump's most disruptive dreams to life.
4. Humiliate the humbled: Both Trump and Musk use public appearances and social media posts to bully and pummel critics across politics, media and culture. They scoff at calls for humility and grace when blessed with power. In the case of transgender people, they want to restore "biological truth" and "the immutable biological reality of sex," as a Day 1 executive order put it, by making it "the policy of the United States to recognize two sexes, male and female."
Both men like to provoke outrage — and outrageous responses. That makes Trump and Musk the center of the national conversation — and baits hyperventilating critics into outrageous responses. Trump and Musk have followed through on their promise to decimate DEI, targeting hundreds of such jobs. The Free Press wrote that the Trump administration, "and many of its highest-profile supporters, are fueling the idea that any minority with a job might not actually deserve it. These people see DEI everywhere."
5. Fused styles, fused worldview: As captured by Vance's AI speech in Paris this week, the most surprising twist in the Trump governing agenda reflects a fusion not just of the Trump and Musk styles but also their worldviews — nationalism with techno-optimism.
Trump was indifferent or outright hostile to many Big Tech companies in his first term and most of his campaign. But now: Quick, vast AI expansion sits at the heart of his evolving economic agenda and philosophy. At the same time, Musk has been a vocal champion of nationalism. They're of one style, and increasingly of one shared mind and ideology.
Behind the scenes: Charlie Kirk — founder and president of Turning Point USA, MAGA's youth wing, and host of one of the most powerful MAGA podcasts — told us the "flood the zone" aggressiveness of the administration's first month will only increase as more top officials get confirmed and rolling. "This is just setting the foundation," Kirk said. "He's set a pace and said: My team can see the tempo I want."
Kirk, who is very close to Trump, told us Trump's maximalist instincts are being amplified by his battle-hardened staff and Cabinet. "You have an entire Avengers team of people able to fulfill the president's wishes and orders," Kirk said. "When you're in exile for a couple of years, and have people writing your political eulogy, you enter with increased motivation and energy."
Kirk, whose social media feeds are one of the most vivid reflections (and drivers) of MAGA sentiment, said his callers and followers are thrilled with what they're getting: "They knew he was serious. But they didn't know they'd get it so quickly, decisively and declaratively."
Reality check: Trump is very intentionally testing the limits of executive power. The WSJ editorial contends: "Trump may be wrong, but there is no constitutional crisis as the cases make their way through the courts."
What to watch: Democrats are beyond baffled on how to deal with Trump, Musk and maximalist power simultaneously. The opposition lacks anyone with a remotely similar social media and traditional media star power, or a coherent legislative way to slow or stop them.
So Democrats are down to betting on the courts — or a future maximalist public backlash to maximalism.
Go deeper ... "Behind the Curtain: Purges, punishments, payback."
Join Jim & Mike next Wednesday for a webinar on "How Trump Thinks" — with special guest Marc Caputo, one of the best-wired Trump reporters — as part of our AM Executive Briefing membership series. Subscribe here.
At a global AI summit in Paris next week, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman will warn world leaders they need to widen their AI mindset from risk — the typical focus of European gatherings on AI — to also include growth and opportunity,an industry source tells Mike.
Why it matters: For the past six months, Altman escalated his insistence on the need for U.S.-led, democratic AI, so a world built on U.S.-led AI rails can prevail over Chinese-led AI.
Zoom in: Vice President JD Vance, who had a stint in tech investing, will attend the AI Action Summit, which will gather heads of state and top government officials at the Grand Palais museum in Paris on Monday and Tuesday.
Altman and other executiveswill hold meetings with heads of state and other government leaders where they'll share data and insights about AI users and developers in their countries.
Zoom out: Encouraged by the response to a demo Altman led for U.S. government leaders in Washington last week, OpenAI plans events in New York and Texas with its "Innovating for America" message.
OpenAI will go on the road with similar meetings in London, Brussels and New Delhi for policymakers, economists, investors, think-tank experts and journalists.
The big picture: Open AI's push on "carrots of opportunity" follows the warning in a report last year by former European Central Bank head Mario Draghi that Europe faces a widening technology gap with the U.S.
On Thursday in Berlin, Altman discussed a European counterpart to the Stargate Project — announced by President Trump the day after the inauguration — which could see the investment of $500 billion over the next four years in AI infrastructure in the U.S. But Altman said European Union regulations would make it harder to raise the capital needed.
What's next: During the Paris summit, OpenAI ads showing the progress possible from the technology will adorn Charles de Gaulle Airport and the private terminals used by many attendees. Similar outdoor ads have been placed around event sites.
On Sunday, OpenAI is expected to air its first Super Bowl ad.
Alex Bruesewitz — a pivotal media adviser to President Trump, known for pushing podcasts and other disruptive outlets during the campaign — will be a senior adviser to Never Surrender, Trump's new leadership PAC.
Why it matters: Bruesewitz, 27, overnight became one of the most influential political strategists in the U.S. The revelation of whether he'd "go inside" the White House has been eagerly awaited.
"We went where the people were," Bruesewitz told me. "All of the podcasters we teamed up with had massive unique, audiences."
Zoom in: Bruesewitz will lead digital messaging for the new group. His firm — X Strategies LLC, based near Mar-a-Lago in West Palm Beach — will manage all digital properties linked to the Trump political brand.
That includes the powerful X accounts @TrumpWarRoom and @TeamTrump, which have millions of followers.
Donald Trump Jr. said in a statement to Axios: "Alex has secured our complete trust and confidence through his unwavering loyalty and delivering extraordinary results for my father on the campaign. He will do a great job in this new role."
Behind the scenes: Bruesewitz first made a name for himself with his knack for provoking Trump's political opponents. He needled Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley during the '24 primaries, with Trump once praising him as "the most powerful guy that I know."
During the general election, Bruesewitz's role pivoted to spearheading Trump's engagements with mainstream podcasts and influencers, with assistance from Barron Trump, and input from the likes of UFC CEO Dana White and John Shahidi, who manages the Nelk Boys.
Bruesewitz's clients include many Trump allies in the House and Senate, including Sen. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) and Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.)
What he's saying: Bruesewitz tells Axios that in his new role, he'll "leverage these social media platforms to counteract misinformation from mainstream media and to vigorously support and defend our President and our remarkable allies. ... We're also going to have a lot of fun."
Why it matters: There are two ways to view President Trump's epic, historic, shockingly unexpected declaration Tuesday evening that the U.S. should seize, control, develop and hold "a long-term ownership position" in war-destroyed Gaza.
It was a wild bluff — or bluster — to gain leverage in the Middle East. It's like threats of trade tariffs against Canada and Mexico — all-consumingly controversial, yet instantly ephemeral. This strikes most Republicans as the right interpretation.
The other: It fuses several Trump obsessions — his hope for a grand Middle East peace deal, his belief Gaza will be a hellhole for decades to come, and his genuine intrigue about developing the seaside land. U.S. officials tell us Trump's words were premeditated, and mirror ideas he floated to some staff and family members privately.
What he said: "The U.S. will take over the Gaza Strip," Trump said, reading from notes in the East Room during the first formal news conference of his presidency, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his side. "We'll own it, and be responsible for dismantling all of the dangerous, unexploded bombs and other weapons on the site."
Asked later who he envisions living in a rebuilt Gaza, Trump replied: "I envision the world people living there — the world's people. I think you'll make that into an international, unbelievable place."
Trump, channeling his inner developer, added: "We have an opportunity to do something that could be phenomenal. And I don't want to be cute, I don't want to be a wise guy, but: the Riviera of the Middle East. ... This could be so magnificent. ... We'll make sure that it's done world-class — it'll be wonderful for the people."
The big picture: Like everything with Trump, his views and motivations are gray despite being expressed in stark black and white.
"He's moving the goalposts of crazy," a longtime adviser told us. "This time around, he's not intimidated by headlines or pundits: He's gonna throw out there whatever he feels like throwing out there."
Trump's message to the Middle East, in the words of this adviser: "I can make it a lot worse for you guys, or you can come up with a better plan."
Reality check: There are massive obstacles to Trump's vision.
The human toll would be staggering: 2 million Palestinians call Gaza home and haven't consented to being forced out of their territory, despite the colossal destruction from 16 months of war.
The leaders of Egypt and Jordan have vehemently rejected Trump's plan to resettle those Palestinians on their territory. Not to mention the broader regional consensus, including in Saudi Arabia, that Gaza should be part of a Palestinian state — not an American one.
Human rights groups have already condemned the proposal as ethnic cleansing.
Trump campaigned on ending foreign wars, but he left the door open last evening to sending U.S. troops to Gaza "if necessary." Left unmentioned was what would be done about Hamas, which remains a force in Gaza and has recruited 10,000-15,000 fighters since the start of the war, according to U.S. intelligence.
Trump's "America First" allies in the Republican Party are quietly raising their eyebrows, especially with his administration actively in the process of dismantling USAID for using taxpayer dollars overseas.
Between the lines: People want to put a frame around Trump's most dramatic moves or public statements.
But everyone on the inside knows it's Trump being Trump — feeling wholly confident, unrestrained, liberated to say and propose whatever pops into his mind.
The Gaza idea is a collision of three private Trump views:
He believes a big peace deal, with the Saudis at the center, is doable.
He was genuinely moved by the scope of the destruction of Gaza, and the realization it could take decades to rebuild.
He and Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, see this as authentic prime real estate — "waterfront property" that could draft off all the power and money flowing through the Middle East.
But Trump seemed to undermine his hopes for a broader Middle East deal. The Saudis were furious with both Trump's idea, and his claim they would accept a deal that does not include a Palestinian state, sources tell Axios' Barak Ravid.
Behind the scenes: A source close to Trump said the Gaza overture was Trump's own idea, and he had been thinking about it for at least two months, Barak reports.
A U.S. official said Trump presented the plan because he came to the conclusion that no one else had any new ideas for Gaza.
The bottom line: Chaos isn't an accident. Trump and his aides know that the tsunami of ideas, executive orders and proclamations makes it hard for opponents to unite around a single message.
Think about you or your friends: Are you more intrigued or worked up by all his controversial nominees ... or Greenland ... or trade wars ... or USAID ... or Elon Musk ... or Ukraine ... or South Africa ... or TikTok ... or a new sovereign wealth fund ... or Trump's own crypto? No human can process this much he-did-what news this fast.
There's an unspoken, ugly rule of American politics: Do unto the other what they have done unto you.
Simply put: Copy the payback, punishments and precedent-shattering techniques practiced by the other party — if they prove effective.
Why it matters: In 30 years of covering this city, it's hard to recall any controversial new power grabs or moves not growing commonplace in American politics.
That's why impeachment threats ... governing by executive order ... and ever-expanding presidential power are as predictable as winter follows fall.
They did it to us. So we'll do it, too — on steroids.
The big picture: President Trump didn't start this trend, by any stretch of the imagination. But he stretches the trend beyond imagination.
We're in uncharted territory, a new frontier. Republicans should fully expect future Democratic presidents to use and build on all these norm-busting moves.
Trump's new techniques and tactics, likely to be adopted by future presidents, include:
Fire critics and perceived enemies. Trump is ousting people across the bureaucracy and not hiding his motivation — payback. In the past, presidents griped about hostile forces inside government, but rarely acted beyond one-offs. They assumed they lacked the power. But courts are validating a broader presidential authority than had been presumed. Incoming presidents usually fixate on the cabinet. Trump is paving the way for them to instantly resurface huge chunks of government with loyalists.
Punish media companies for critical coverage. Trump has sued several news organizations for stories or even interview edits he disliked. Some of these organizations are settling the cases, enticing Trump and others to make this a permanent weapon. The Pentagon said it'll "rotate" four major news organizations — The New York Times, NBC News, NPR and Politico — from their workspace on Correspondents' Corridor beginning Feb. 14, and cycle in several friendly outlets. That's a new level of carrot-and-stick.
Reward political allies with pardons. This has always been done, for sure — but in smaller doses. Trump's sweeping clemency for Jan. 6 rioters, including people convicted of attacking police, set a new precedent for protecting people who defend your politics. Combine this with former President Biden's preemptive pardon of family members and political allies, and it's hard to see any real limits on setting friends or allies free.
Impunity with immunity. Trump helped shape a Supreme Court that granted all presidents presumed immunity for official acts in office. That codified a level of freedom and presidential power some assumed — but was never solidified. Now, it is. Fully expect more cases codifying presidential power to land on the Supreme Court docket. Trump wields power with few perceived restraints. Others will follow, especially when they control Congress.
Presidential profits. Presidents and their families can start businesses — or even currencies — and profit without restriction or outcry going forward. They always could — but most steered clear of the appearance of a conflict or profiting off their power while in office. It was seen as beneath the presidency. But Trump started promoting a memecoin three days before taking office — with paper value that reached tens of billions — with little outcry. Most Americans didn't realize there are basically no limitations on presidents profiting off their reins of power through new businesses or business deals. Now, they do.
What to watch: Republicans currently rule Washington and the courts — so they're full, content beneficiaries of all of this. But what happens when Republicans are inevitably out of power?
Power in Washington has swung wildly for 20+ years — Biden had two years of all-Democratic rule ... after first-term Trump had two years of all-GOP rule ... after President Obama had two years of all-Dem rule ... after former President George W. Bush had full GOP control ... after former President Clinton had two years of full Dem control.
Reality check: There's an asymmetry between MAGA and the Democratic Party as it currently exists.
Democrats have a religious devotion to norms and institutions that Republicans simply don't share, and it's a unique feature of Trumpism to despise the "Deep State," mainstream media, and checks on executive power.
Biden campaigned in 2020 on restoring normalcy. The 2028 Democratic nominee might well take a similar tack — though four years of Trump could push the party in a more brass-knuckle populist direction.
The bottom line: History shows the next Democratic president, with a Democratic Congress, will likely use — and expand — many of these powers. Biden did it! Trump did it! So I shall do it, too!
Axios' Zachary Basu contributed reporting.
Go deeper: "Behind the Curtain: Purges, punishments, payback."
America has never witnessed so many people purged or punished by an incoming president so quickly. White House sources tell us this is just the beginning.
On Friday night, a Defense Department memo said four major news organizations — The New York Times, NBC News, NPR and Politico — will have to move out of their longtime workspace on Correspondents' Corridor in the Pentagon, an unprecedented move, under a new Annual Media Rotation Program for Pentagon Press Corps.
"Hope those hit pieces on Pete were worth it," a source close to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, but not involved in the decision-making, told us.
Why it matters: President Trump long promised to oust and punish people his administration deemed political enemies or unfair critics. His administration is doing this faster, deeper and wider than many in Washington expected.
Democrats on the Hill are warning that Trump is sometimes acting outside the law — and without regard for government services Americans rely on, and for the American tradition that a president must be subject to checks, balances, scrutiny and criticism.
The big picture: The danger in moving so fast, so wide is losing vital, seasoned talent in hard-to-fill, essential governmental roles. It sets a precedent for future presidents to quickly remake the government in their image or ideological mold — and extend the power of the presidency.
Trump advisers see this much differently, of course. They argue the government is filled with anti-Trump activists and bureaucratic lifers who can be eliminated with little cost. The depth and breadth of actions in the first two weeks show the results.
In a move with city-by-city repercussions across America, Trump temporarily froze trillions of dollars in federal grants and loans. A second federal judge, in Rhode Island, on Friday ordered a temporary pause.
Zoom in: This is unprecedented territory for Washington governance. Take the early strikes against the FBI and its role in investigating and prosecuting those involved in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.
Not only did Trump take the unprecedented step of pardoning virtually all involved, including violent criminals. His team is hunting down those involved in the probe, ousting many. Some of these prosecutors and officials didn't choose the case but were assigned to do it, did their job, and moved on.
Acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove identified more than a half-dozen FBI senior executives who were ordered to retire or be fired by Monday, AP reports.
Bove asked for the names and titles of FBI employees who worked on investigations into the Capitol riot — a list the bureau's acting director said could number in the thousands.
"Forcing out both agents and prosecutors who worked on Jan. 6 cases would amount to a wide-scale assault on the Justice Department," the N.Y. Times notes (gift link).
Then consider the Friday night announcement about Pentagon workspace for top news organizations. Every administration has the option of who gets seats and who doesn't.
But the message to mainstream media was unmistakable and not masked. The Pentagon said invitations will go out to the New York Post, One America News Network and Breitbart (Trump-friendly outlets), plus Huffington Post (which doesn't have a Pentagon correspondent and didn't request a space).
NBC News said in a statement: "We're disappointed by the decision to deny us access to a broadcasting booth at the Pentagon that we've used for many decades. Despite the significant obstacles this presents to our ability to gather and report news in the national public interest, we will continue to report with the same integrity and rigor NBC News always has."
NPR said in a statement to Axios: "This decision interferes with the ability of millions of Americans to directly hear from Pentagon leadership, and with NPR's public interest mission to serve Americans who turn to our network of local public media stations in all 50 states. NPR will continue to report with vigor and integrity on the transformation this Administration has promised to deliver. NPR urges the Pentagon to expand the offices available to press within the building so that all outlets covering the Pentagon receive equal access."
N.Y. Times spokesperson Charlie Stadtlander said in a statement to Axios: "This move to expel The Times and other independent, fact-based news outlets from the Pentagon's press spaces is a concerning development. The Department of Defense has the largest discretionary budget in the government, millions of Americans in uniform under its direction, and control of a vast arsenal funded by taxpayers. The Times is committed to covering the Pentagon fully and fairly. Steps designed to impede access are clearly not in the public interest."
The bottom line: Moves like this are designed to send signals and make plain the consequences of tough coverage.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman gave government leaders, policy experts and journalists a sneak peek at coming technology Thursday during an off-the-record demo near Capitol Hill.
Why it matters: The briefing was designed both to show how the U.S. can maximize economic benefits of AI, and to warm D.C. leaders to coming capabilities so they're less likely to be caught off-guard.
Referring to new agentic technology that can independently complete tasks in the real world, Altman said: "My intuition would be that ... these things are [a] single-digit percent of the economic value we will pass to the U.S. economy."
"This is going to be a big, big efficiency gain."
State of play: Altman and OpenAI's Chief Product Officer Kevin Weil previewed new AI capabilities coming in Q1 and focused on how those capabilities will support science, education, health and government services, Axios' Maria Curi reported ahead of the meeting.
It marked the second week in a row Altman was in D.C. after attending Trump's inauguration and announcing Stargate — a partnership among companies including OpenAI to invest billions in AI development.
Spotted at the briefing Thursday: Interior Secretary Doug Burgum (confirmed yesterday) ... Lynne Parker, executive director of President Trump's Council of Advisors for Science and Technology (PCAST) ... Sriram Krishnan, White House senior policy adviser for AI ... Jacob Helberg, Trump's designee for Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment ... Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) ... Kellyanne Conway ... Wally Adeyemo, former deputy Treasury secretary under President Biden ... retired House Financial Services Chair Patrick McHenry ... former Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.).
The Trump administrationtemporarily paused federal grant, loan and other financial assistance programs, effective 5 p.m. ET Tuesday.
Why it matters: The suspension will provide the administration with time to review agency programs and determine the best uses of funding for those programs consistent with the law and Trump's priorities, says a White House Office of Management and Budget memo, via Reuters.
Driving the news: Agencies have until Feb. 10to submit detailed information on any programs, projects or activities subject to the pause.
The memo says that "to the extent permissible under applicable law, Federal agencies must temporarily pause[bold in original] all activities related to obligation or disbursement of all Federal financial assistance, and other relevant agency activities that may be implicated by the executive orders, including, but not limited to, financial assistance for foreign aid, nongovernmental organizations, DEI, woke gender ideology, and the green new deal."
The pause "does not include assistance provided directly to individuals," the memo states.
Between the lines: The memo created confusion across Washington.
It may impact at least tens of billions of dollars in payments, Brian Riedl, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a center-right think tank, told the Washington Post.
"The funding delays are going to prove very difficult for grantees under the impression the money is coming, and have rent and salary payments dependent upon it," Riedl said. "It seems like a very big deal."
The other side: Top Democratic congressional budget appropriation lawmakers, Sen. Patty Murray of Washington and Rep. Rosa DeLauro of Connecticut, said in a letter to OMB: "The scope of what you are ordering is breathtaking, unprecedented, and will have devastating consequences across the country.
After touring war-zone-like wildfire devastation Friday, President Trump plans to act as soon as Monday to bring federal regulatory relief to help Angelenos clean up and rebuild.
Why it matters: Trump was moved by talking to people who aren't being allowed to even see the remnants of their houses. Aides are researching requirements the White House can waive, or California rules that can be overridden, to get homeowners back and rebuilt quicker.
Trump is drawing on expertise about the California Environmental Quality Act and the California Coastal Commission, which'll play a massive role in residents' ability to rebuild, one of the sources said.
Trump is "tapping into his history of property development and regulation knowledge," the source added.
Context: During a stop to view flood damage in North Carolina before heading to California, Trump told reporters that disaster funding for LA will be contingent on changes to state voting laws and water-management policy.
"I want to see two things in Los Angeles," he said. "Voter ID, so that the people have a chance to vote, and I want to see the water be released and come down into Los Angeles and throughout the state. Those are the two things. After that, I will be the greatest president that California ... has ever seen."
Zoom out: In his first second-term trip, Trump surveyed disaster zones in LA and North Carolina, which is still recovering from Hurricane Helene, AP reports.
Trump flew over several LA neighborhoods in Marine One. Then, he and the first lady landed in the Pacific Palisades and visited a street where all the houses burned down, speaking with police officers and residents.
"We're going to need your support. We're going to need your help," Calif. Gov. Gavin Newsom told Trump. "You were there for us during COVID. I don't forget that, and I have all the expectations we'll be able to work together to get a speedy recovery."
Over just eight hours on Inauguration Day, Presidents Trump and Biden forever stretched the immense public and private power of the presidency to once-unimaginable dimensions:
Presidents can preemptively pardon family and friends in case of any accusation of grift or crimes.
Presidents can pardon violent criminals convicted of sedition and violence in defense of their politics.
Presidents and their families can start businesses — or even currencies — and profit without restriction or outcry.
Oh, and they can do this with the presumption of presidential immunity.
America doesn't have a king. But we're dancing close to king-like power.
Why it matters: Presidents could always pardon, profit or protect friends, family and allies. It just never has been done this broadly, this brazenly, this quickly. And with this much of a public shrug.
The big picture: So much of modern political and presidential power flows from precedent and imagination: doing unto others what the predecessors did — or did to them. And then stretching the hell out of it.
Biden, under the guise of protecting his family from unfair political and legal persecution, preemptively pardoned his brothers James and Frank Biden, his sister Valerie Biden Owens, and John Owens and Sara Biden, the spouses of Valerie and James. This is unprecedented.
"It's disgusting," Bill Daley — a longtime Biden friend who was White House chief of staff under President Obama — told us. It "confirms that there are serious concerns about culpability." Daley said the Bidens will never wipe this "stain" from the former president's legacy.
Trump blasted the pardons, moments before offering his own to approximately 1,500 people convicted or charged in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol — including violent criminals who attacked police officers.
Trump also pardoned Enrique Tarrio, the fascist Proud Boy leader convicted of seditious conspiracy — and serving a 22-year sentence in federal prison — for coordinating the attack on the Capitol from outside Washington.
Trump also commuted the sentences of 14 extremist members of the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers convicted for plotting to violently overthrow the U.S. government and keep Trump in office.
The sweeping acts of clemency stunned Washington and contradicted prior statements from Republicans — including Vice President JD Vance — that violent offenders should not be pardoned.
Between the lines: Biden, who earlier pardoned his son, Hunter, basically offered blanket immunity to family members who might be accused of profiting from this presidency.
Trump tested new limits by launching a surprise meme coin, $TRUMP, that vaulted him to crypto billionaire status two days before being inaugurated.
Crypto insiders fear that $TRUMP — as well as the hastily launched $MELANIA meme coin — could destroy credibility that the scam-plagued industry has spent years trying to build.
Remember, Trump once was a crypto skeptic and converted only during the 2024 campaign. He then became a beneficiary, to the tune of tens of billions of dollars, of the industry's open wallet. What an ROI!
Most Americans don't realize there are basically no limitations on presidents profiting off their reins of power through new businesses or business deals.
Thanks to the Supreme Court, presidents also enjoy the presumption of immunity for "official acts" if they're ever accused of crossing any legal lines.
So Trump and his family conceivably could make billions through deals worldwide, new businesses and new currencies, funding the family — or even a political movement — for a generation. Their only limitation is imagination.
America has drifted into uncharted waters in the rule of law. Trump and future presidents can test the limits with a presumption of success. And Biden's final act of pardons show Democrats have lost a lot of ability to cry foul.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters on Capitol Hill Tuesday when asked about Trump's blanket Jan. 6 pardons: "We said all along that Biden opened the door on this."
We'll leave you with this: Now that presidential power is so broad, so deep, so uncontainable, why forfeit it? Well, here's an apparent loophole in the constitutional limit on two presidential terms:
Trump or future presidents could simply run for a de facto third term —as the vice presidential nominee, with the understanding they will take power back once elected. That's but one of the once-unthinkable scenarios that seem more thinkable than ever.
Think of the U.S. government as a once-dominant, lean, high-flying company that grew too big, too bloated, too bureaucratic, too unimaginative.
It's Kodak or Circuit City — a dominant player caught napping amid an obvious technological transformation.
Why it matters: This snooze-and-lose reality is partly driving the governing and economic pace, tone and policies of President Trump's White House, officials tell us.
A theory that binds Trump with leading innovators, especially Elon Musk, is that you can bring tech and business talent and techniques together to take a wrecking ball to broken ideas and/or processes or entire agencies.
This isn't Trump's instinctual motivation, aides say. He wants a strong stock market, slower inflation, low joblessness, the holy trinity of economic indicators.
But Musk, Marc Andreessen and a growing chorus of entrepreneurs and tech CEOs are fusing their "founder mode" mentality with Trump's desire for fast growth.
You have Silicon Valley's best and brightest battling for bigger roles in reshaping government. Almost every CEO wants a slice of the action.
The optimistic scenario for the Trump presidency: It'll jar lawmakers and the public into realizing how a slow, bloated, bureaucratic government handcuffs and hurts America in the vital race for AI, new energy sources, space and overall growth.
Reality check: Some of this is motivated by politics, some by genuine enthusiasm to serve, and some by naked self-interest. Government will help pick the winners and losers in chips, AI, energy, crypto, satellites and space. So, it would be CEO malpractice not to try to shape the outcome. A seat at the table could be worth billions.
Whatever the motivation, the genuine thesis is directionally correct: America's government is so vast, so complex, so indebted that it makes fast, smart growth exponentially more complicated.
Elon Musk arrives at the Capitol Rotunda for today's inauguration. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Whether you're a skeptic or fan, consider not what a policy wonk would do, but rather how a tech CEO would shake things up if their company was deep in debt and slow in execution.
Simplify, simplify, simplify. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who recently dined with Trump, loves to tell how his company rediscovered its mojo with a Year of Efficiency (2023) where he declared: "Leaner is better." Meta cut workforce, managerial layers, and decision-making obstacles — then went all-in on AI. The results were magical, he says.
Cut costs. The U.S. debt is too staggering to comprehend. It's $36 trillion — and grows $1 trillion every 100 days. Another way to look at it: America spends more on defense than the next 10 biggest nations — and yet we spend more on debt than defense! So cutting government, now or later, is unavoidable.
Bet big. You can't cut your way out of this crisis. The only palatable solution: explosive growth. Not 2% or 3%. Twice that. Marc Andreessen has argued publicly this rate of growth is possible if you stack government attention and staff correctly. The big bets would be on AI, space, new domestic energy sources, crypto, and U.S. businesses doing this work at home. GDP growth of 1% would amount to about $290 billion.
Break stuff. Musk bluntly warned before the election that big cuts and change in government inevitably cause "temporary pain." Politicians typically hate inflicting any pain on voters — hence, your deficits! But any business leader who shuts down products or lays off people knows it's the price of growth.
Ignore the whiners. What holds back CEOs and political leaders is the same thing: fear, fear of bad headlines or big revolts. But Trump's pain threshold is higher than anyone we've seen in public office. So you could see him enduring it if convinced it will juice his numbers. Musk is a living reminder that a lot of bad press does not equate to failure. Often, it's the opposite.
The other side: Robert Rubin, who was a co-senior partner at Goldman Sachs before becoming Treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton, wrote Friday in a Wall Street Journal opinion piece that outsiders arriving in Washington need to "recognize how much they don't know about government and how different it can be from business." Rubin writes from experience that "government can't and shouldn't be run like a business."
"The best way to make a successful transition to the public sector is to do so with humility," Rubin concludes. "The alternative, in many cases, is to have humility thrust upon you."
Shortly after being sworn in at high noon today, President-elect Trump plans to revoke security clearances of 51 former intelligence officials who signed a letter in 2020 saying emails from Hunter Biden's laptop carried "classic earmarks of a Russian information operation.
We're told Day 1 will bring about 200 executive actions of various sorts, including executive orders.
Day 1 actions are expected to include declaring an emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border, Jan. 6 pardons, a TikTok reprieve, and executive orders to increase fossil fuel development and reduce civil service protections for federal workers.
Why it matters: The action on security clearances is a Day 1 sign that Trump plans to use his formidable tools of office in his war with what he calls the "intelligence apparatus," which he blames for the "Russia collusion hoax."
"The threats have real teeth to them," a transition source told me.
The big picture: During the 75-day transition, Trump's team put a huge focus on prepping a Day 1 barrage to tell the story of "promises made, promises kept" — before he's even had a full day in the Oval Office.
"I will act with historic speed and strength and fix every single crisis facing our country," Trump said yesterday at a Make America Great Again Victory Rally at Capital One Arena in Washington.
"Before even taking office, you are already seeing results that nobody expected to see," he added. "Everyone is calling it the ... I don't want to say this — it's too braggadocious. But we'll say it anyway, the Trump effect. It's you, you're the effect. Since the election, the stock market has surged, and small business optimism has soared ... Bitcoin has shattered one record high after another."
Charlie Kirk — founder and CEO of Turning Point USA, and one of the most powerful MAGA podcasters — calls this "Liberation Day."
Steve Bannon, whose "War Room" podcast is powerful with Trump's base, told me it's a "tsunami this time ... flood the zone." Bannon said the fusillade will mean "the media is so overwhelmed with so much activity on so many fronts that it cannot process."
We hear Ratcliffe pushed the idea of revoking the security clearances, and Trump loved it.
Reality check: A former U.S. official told us that some of the 51 officials are fully retired, and sees the move as largely symbolic — "none of these people are going to lose their day job."
President-elect Trump's opening flurry of executive orders will declare a "national energy emergency" to juice higher production and lower consumer costs, an incoming administration official tells Axios.
The wave of moveson day 1 or shortly after is also expected to include an executive order to "unleash Alaska's natural resource potential." The order will support liquefied natural gas exports from the 49th state, with an eye toward helping Asia-Pacific allies.
Why it matters: Trump wants to send an instant message of "promises made, promises kept" — and signal a much friendlier climate for businesses across the board.
Trump's energy executive actions will create "conditions that facilitate investment, that facilitate job creation, that facilitate the production of America's natural resources, and the result will be lower prices for the American people," an incoming White House energy adviser told us.
"National security is a key issue here," the adviser said. "Energy is fundamental to our foreign policy, and reducing American energy production curtails our ability to exercise our foreign policies."
Threat level: Trump's attempted reversal of Biden-era policies could boost U.S. greenhouse gas emissions — or at least slow down projected reductions.
Future focus: The power to fuel AI — which requires energy-thirsty data centers — is top of mind for the incoming White House, which is vowing to "unleash" U.S. energy.
The emergency order is expected to focus on electricity generation. U.S. power demand is rising quickly after staying largely flat for the last 15 years.
Friction point: "We're in an AI race with the People's Republic of China and other nations," the incoming energy adviser said.
"It's fundamental that we're able to produce the necessary electricity here in the United States so that we can win that race and protect our nation."
The big picture: Trump's team aims to ease construction of fossil-fuel infrastructure, such as pipelines. The new administration also is expected to overturn a suite of Biden-era policies:
A major slowdown of oil and gas leasing in the Gulf of Mexico and new bans in other coastal waters.
EPA greenhouse gas regulations on power plants, vehicles, and oil and gas infrastructure.
A "pause" on new LNG export licenses to major markets.
Restrictions on oil, gas and mineral projects in Alaska.
Reality check: Trump's "dominance" agenda will confront market and process barriers — and plenty of litigation.
U.S. oil output is already at record levels. Tepid global demand growth makes producers in Texas and elsewhere unlikely to flood the market.
Gasoline and diesel costs are tethered to oil prices set on global markets, while electricity costs tend to be highly regional and dependent on weather and other forces.
Executive orders can make some instant policy. Often they're a symbolic opening of the long, legally fraught bureaucratic slog of formally unwinding agency rules and policies.
The intrigue: It's unclear precisely what the "emergency" declaration and other orders will entail.
"We're going to cut the burdensome red tape and bureaucracy that have inhibited our economy for four years now," the incoming energy adviser said.
Presidents can use emergency authorities to redirect resources and push the private sector to boost or maintain critical supplies.
Between the lines: The oil and gas industry will cheer Trump's opening moves. But executives are wary of his plans for tariffs, which could raise project costs — and spur retaliation from buyers of U.S. exports.
The bottom line: The first moments and days of Trump 2.0 will ignite a U-turn from President Biden's expansive climate agenda.
But turning those ambitions into on-the-ground reality is a far longer, trickier task.
Conor McGregor, the mixed martial arts champ known as Notorious, was spotted making the scene at STK Steakhouse in Washington this weekend.
Other Ultimate Fighting Championship stars are expected at a black-tie reception Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg — a UFC fan and Brazilian jiu-jitsu medalist — will co-host Monday night before the inaugural balls.
Why it matters: The fighters are part of a celebrity influx since President-elect Trump's last inauguration. Giddy MAGA insiders crow that Trump is culturally cool — or at least socially acceptable — after a stretch of toxicity.
Alex Bruesewitz — CEO of X Strategies LLC, based in Palm Beach, who advises Trump's inner circle on alternative media — told Axios between parties this weekend: "President Trump is cool again."
"He's reclaimed that image he had his entire adult life before he ran for president — sitting courtside at New York Knicks games and lighting Kate Moss's cigarette," Bruesewitz said. "That Donald Trump is back, and now he's going to the White House. It's now socially acceptable to support it."
Behind the scenes: Bruesewitz helped lead the charge on VIP outreach for the inauguration. As the celebrity liaison, he drew on his personal relationships and input from other Trump friends to help build a glittery roster for this weekend's festivities.
Bruesewitz told me part of the reason is that as celebrities met Trump personally, and as people hear him on long-form podcast interviews, they found him at odds with the portrayal in much of the media: "He was charming and hilarious, not crazy and angry."
Trump's inaugural weekend roster is expected to include:
Architects of the leading generative AI models are abuzz that a top company, possibly OpenAI, in coming weeks will announce a next-level breakthrough that unleashes Ph.D.-level super-agents to do complex human tasks.
We've learned that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman — who in September dubbed this "The Intelligence Age," and is in Washington this weekend for the inauguration — has scheduled a closed-door briefing for U.S. government officials in Washington on Jan. 30.
Why it matters: The expected advancements help explain why Meta's Mark Zuckerberg and others have talked publicly about AI replacing mid-level software engineers and other human jobs this year.
"[P]robably in 2025," Zuckerberg told Joe Rogan 10 days ago, "we at Meta, as well as the other companies that are basically working on this, are going to have an AI that can effectively be a sort of midlevel engineer that you have at your company that can write code."
"[O]ver time, we'll get to the point where a lot of the code in our apps, and including the AI that we generate, is actually going to be built by AI engineers instead of people engineers," he added.
Between the lines: A super-agent breakthrough could push generative AI from a fun, cool, aspirational tool to a true replacement for human workers.
Our sources in the U.S. government and leading AI companies tell us that in recent months, the leading companies have been exceeding projections in AI advancement.
OpenAI this past week released an "Economic Blueprint" arguing that with the right rules and infrastructure investments, AI can "catalyze a reindustrialization across the country."
To be sure: The AI world is full of hype. Most people struggle now to use the most popular models to truly approximate the work of humans.
AI investors have reason to hype small advancements as epic ones to juice valuations to help fund their ambitions.
But sources say this coming advancement is significant. Several OpenAI staff have been telling friends they are both jazzed and spooked by recent progress. As we told you in a column Saturday, Jake Sullivan — the outgoing White House national security adviser, with security clearance for the nation's biggest secrets — believes the next few years will determine whether AI advancements end in "catastrophe."
The big picture: Imagine a world where complex tasks aren't delegated to humans. Instead, they're executed with the precision, speed, and creativity you'd expect from a Ph.D.-level professional.
We're talking about super-agents — AI tools designed to tackle messy, multilayered, real-world problems that human minds struggle to organize and conquer.
They don't just respond to a single command; they pursue a goal. Super agents synthesize massive amounts of information, analyze options and deliver products.
A few examples:
Build from scratch: Imagine telling your agent, "Build me new payment software." The agent could design, test and deliver a functioning product.
Make sense of chaos: For a financial analysis of a potential investment, your agent could scour thousands of sources, evaluate risks, and compile insights faster (and better) than a team of humans.
Master logistics: Planning an offsite retreat? The agent could handle scheduling, travel arrangements, handouts and more — down to booking a big dinner in a private room near the venue.
This isn't a lights-on moment — AI is advancing along a spectrum.
These tools are growing smarter, sharper, and more integrated every day. "This will have huge applications for health, science and education," an AI insider tells us, "because of the ability to do deep research at a scale and scope we haven't seen — then the compounding effects translate into real productivity growth."
The other side: There are still big problems with generative AI's Achilles heel — the way it makes things up. Reliability and hallucinations are an even bigger problem if you're going to turn AI into autonomous agents: Unless OpenAI and its rivals can persuade customers and users that agents can be trusted to perform tasks without going off the rails, the companies' vision of autonomous agents will flop.
Noam Brown, a top OpenAI researcher, tweeted Friday: "Lots of vague AI hype on social media these days. There are good reasons to be optimistic about further progress, but plenty of unsolved research problems remain."
What to watch: Two massive tectonic shifts are happening at once — President-elect Trump and MAGA are coming into power at the very moment AI companies are racing to approximate human-like or human-surpassing intelligence.
Look for Congress to tackle a massive AI infrastructure bill to help spur American job growth in the data, chips and energy to power AI.
And look for MAGA originals like Steve Bannon to argue that coming generations of AI will be job-killing evil for managerial, administrative and tech workers. The new models "will gut the workforce — especially entry-level, where young people start," Bannon told us.
Axios' Scott Rosenberg, managing editor for tech, contributed reporting.
