Three years after Russia invaded Ukraine, Washington is shifting its pressure from Moscow to Kyiv as the Trump administration tries to end the war.

Why it matters: President Trump's dramatic change in U.S. policy toward Russia shocked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and is fueling fears among U.S. allies that the Trump administration will side with Moscow as it tries to negotiate an end to the conflict.

• At any other time in the past 80 years, it would have been unimaginable that the U.S. president would be pressing for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin while calling Zelensky a dictator.
• Trump's approach stands in stark contrast to that of his predecessor former President Joe Biden who he claims was "played like a fiddle" by Zelensky and allowed the war to start and continue for so long.

Driving the news: Trump has been pressing Zelensky in recent days to sign an agreement that would give the U.S. and Ukraine equal shares of revenue from mining minerals and other natural resources in Ukraine.

• The agreement was Zelensky's idea and he raised it first with Trump in September.
• But while the Ukrainian president sees it as an economic partnership, Trump views the deal as a way to get back the hundreds of billions of dollars the U.S. gave Ukraine in assistance over the last three years.
• Trump said he expects the U.S. will receive $400 billion to $500 billion through the agreement.

"We are either going to sign a deal or there are going to be a lot of problems with them," Trump said in a speech on Friday.

• On Saturday, Trump said the parties were close to a deal. "We are asking for rare earth [elements] and oil — anything we can get ... we better be close to a deal," he said.
• A U.S. official involved in the negotiations confirmed a deal could be reached fairly soon. "The two sides continue to engage constructively in the process. Top officials on both sides are focused on getting this done," the official said.

Between the lines: The mineral deal isn't directly related to the negotiations to end the war but it has exacerbated tensions between the U.S. and Ukraine amid Trump's outreach to Russia about negotiations to end the conflict.

Catch up quick: Ending the war in Ukraine was one of Trump's key campaign promises.

• Since he assumed office, Trump began criticizing Ukraine and alienating NATO allies while warming up to Russia.
• After Trump spoke over the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier this month, senior U.S. and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia in a significant breakthrough in frozen U.S.-Russia relations.
• The renewed engagement with Russia launched a diplomatic process to end the war, but its fast pace and initial focus on Moscow created anxiety in Ukraine and among U.S. allies in Europe.

As the U.S. began engaging with Putin, Trump cranked up pressure on Zelensky and began attacking him personally.

• Trump falsely claimed Ukraine started the war, called Zelensky a dictator and said he doesn't think it's important that the Ukrainian president be part of meetings between the U.S. and Russia about how to end the war.

The big picture: The U.S. position is also applying diplomatic pressure on Ukraine and its Western allies at the UN and in other international forums.

• The Trump administration is trying to push back on a UN General Assembly resolution presented by Ukraine marking three years for the Russian invasion.
• European diplomats say the U.S. is pushing numerous countries to not support the Ukrainian text, and instead get behind a U.S. text that doesn't refer to the Russian invasion and doesn't put any responsibility for the war on Russia. The U.S. draft resolution calls for ending the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in a statement on Saturday said supporting the "simple, historic resolution ... affirm[s] that this conflict is awful, that the UN can help end it, and that peace is possible."

What they're saying: White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Saturday evening that Trump "believes very strongly that Russia is willing to make a deal, and he's fighting to make a deal" to end the war.

• She said national security adviser Mike Waltz is going to "work around the clock" all weekend to get a deal.
• "The President [and] his team are very much focused on continuing negotiations with both sides of this war to end the conflict and the President is very confident we can get it done this week," she said.

What to watch: On Monday, the leaders of the G7 countries are expected to hold a virtual meeting marking three years since the Russian invasion. European diplomats said the U.S. currently opposes the draft statement for the meeting because it refers to Russia as "the aggressor."

• The U.S. is also planning to bring a draft resolution about the war in Ukraine to a vote at the UN Security Council on Monday, according to European diplomats who say the proposed text also doesn't hold Russia accountable for the invasion and only calls for ending the conflict.
• The diplomats said France and the UK will face a dilemma about whether to veto the U.S. resolution on the same day French President Emmanuel Macron meets Trump in the Oval Office and the same week that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will visit the White House.

Six Israeli hostages were released by Hamas on Saturday as part of the Gaza ceasefire deal.

The big picture: All living hostages who were part of the first phase of the ceasefire deal have now been released.

• The bodies of four dead hostages are expected to be returned to Israel on Thursday to conclude the release of all 33 hostages part of the deal's first phase.

Driving the news: Four of the hostages who were released on Saturday were kidnapped on October 7 and held in captivity for 505 days: Tal Shoham, Omer Wenkert, Eliya Cohen amd Omer Shem-Tov.

• Two of the released hostages have been held by Hamas for more than a decade: Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed.
• Israel released 600 Palestinian prisoners on Saturday. Among them were 445 Palestinians who have been detained by the IDF in Gaza since October 8 and roughly 100 prisoners who were serving life sentences for murdering Israelis.

What's next: The 42-day ceasefire of the first phase of the Gaza deal will end next Saturday. According to the agreement, the ceasefire will continue as long as negotiations over the second phase of the deal are taking place.

• White House Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff held talks earlier this week with Israeli minister Ron Dermer, who is leading the negotiations on the second phase from the Israeli side, and with Qatari Prime Ministory Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, who is the key mediator with Hamas.
• But there are no signs yet that the parties are close to an agreement on the second phase of the deal or to extend the current phase.

Zoom in: Hamas said on Saturday it is ready to release all remaining hostages together if an agreement is reached on the second phase of the deal.

• Hamas said in a statement it demands such an agreement leads to the end of the war, full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the release of all remaining Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails.
• Israel, on the other hand, demands that any such agreement will lead to the end of Hamas' control of Gaza and the departure of its leaders to exile.
• "It is hard to square that circle," Witkoff said at a conference in Miami on Thursday.
• President Trump suggested on Friday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has no qualms about resuming the war in Gaza at the end of the first phase in a week,

What they are saying: Witkoff stressed he hopes the good will from phase one of the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal "will go into phase two".

• He added that phase two is more difficult, "but if we work hard there is a chance for success".
• "We are making a lot of progress in the conversations and hopefully it would lead to good results," he added.

U.S. and Ukrainian officials negotiated all night into Friday morning in an attempt to conclude a minerals deal and halt the deterioration in relations, a U.S. official and a source with direct knowledge of the issue tell Axios.

Why it matters: The disagreement over minerals helped spark a wider crisis in relations this week. Now Trump administration officials and some in the Ukrainian government are pressing President Volodymyr Zelensky to make a deal.

• The U.S. official and the source familiar said the decision is now up to Zelensky, and both expressed concern that the U.S.-Ukraine crisis will deepen if he rejects the offer.
• The U.S. official called it a "make or break scenario for the Ukrainians."

The latest: "President Zelensky is going to sign that deal and you will see it in the very short term," White House national security adviser Mike Waltz said on Friday at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC).

Breaking it down: The rare earth minerals in question could be worth trillions of dollars in total.

• Zelensky rejected an initial U.S. offer presented by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent which would have given the U.S. 50% of all revenues from the mining project, infuriating Trump.
• Zelensky had concerns about some provisions of the deal and the fact that it offered no security guarantees for Ukraine. The U.S. side came back with an "improved" offer earlier this week, and has now made additional modifications.
• The exact terms of the current U.S. offer are not clear.

The latest: U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg is still in Kyiv meeting with Zelensky's aides.

• The Trump administration sent to Ukraine the latest version of the mineral agreement on Thursday night, the U.S. official who is involved in the negotiations and a source with direct knowledge told Axios.
• The U.S. official said the modified version of the agreement is aimed at "fixing the situation" between the U.S. and Ukraine.
• The official said a U.S. cabinet secretary — who is not Bessent — was empowered by Trump to make the new offer. The official declined to say which cabinet secretary.

The latest: Kellogg wrote on X on Friday morning that he had a "long and intense day with the senior leadership of Ukraine" including "extensive and positive discussions" with Zelensky.

• The U.S. envoy referred to Zelensky as "the embattled and courageous leader of a nation at war" — a strikingly different characterization than Trump, who called Zelensky an unpopular "dictator."

Editor's note: This story has been updated with Waltz's comment on Friday.

Hamas transferred the bodies of Israeli hostages to Israel on Thursday as part of the Gaza ceasefire deal, the first time since the Oct. 7 attack that Hamas has returned the remains of dead hostages to Israel.

The latest: Hamas said it transferred the bodies of the Bibas family. Shiri Bibas was 33 years old when she was kidnapped from her home with her two children, 4-year-old Ariel and 9-month-old Kfir. However, the Israel Defense Forces said the body believed to be Shiri Bibas was an "anonymous, unidentified body" and the DNA didn't match that of any of the hostages.

• "This is a grave violation of the agreement by Hamas who committed to return four bodies of hostages. We demand that Hamas returns Shiri Bibas' body and all other hostages," the IDF said in a statement.
• The IDF said it had identified the bodies of Oded Lifshitz, who was 84 when he was kidnapped from his home, and the Bibas children.
• The IDF said the pathological examinations and intelligence gathered by Israel suggests that the Bibas family children were murdered in captivity in November 2023.
• An Israeli official said in a briefing with reporters that Israel shared the intelligence about the killing of the family with the U.S.

State of play: The first phase of the hostage and ceasefire deal was considered back on track following Hamas' release of the bodies after nearly breaking down.

• Israeli strategic affairs minister Ron Dermer is expected to meet White House envoy Steve Witkoff in the U.S. on Thursday to begin talks on the second phase, which will be even more complicated, an Israeli official and a source familiar said.
• The second phase talks were due to focus on the endgame of the war in Gaza, which poses thornier political and strategic questions than the initial ceasefire agreement.
• Netanyahu appointed Dermer to lead these talks, pushing aside the Israeli intelligence chiefs who led negotiations on the first phase. Dermer's office did not respond to a request for comment.
• The second phase was discussed in general terms at an Israeli security cabinet meeting earlier this week. An Israeli official said Netanyahu did not want to go into a detailed discussion for fear of leaks.

Background: Hamas, which returned the bodies earlier Thursday, had claimed the Bibas family was killed in an Israeli air strike early in the war. The Israel Defense Forces have not confirmed that.

• Their father Yarden Bibas was released alive two weeks ago.
• Lifshitz, a peace activists who drove Palestinians from Gaza to hospitals in Israel, died during his time in Hamas captivity.
• In return for the bodies, Israel released women and minors who were arrested by the IDF in Gaza during the war but who did not take part in the Oct. 7 attack.
• Four more bodies were expected to be delivered next Thursday as part of the first phase of the hostage and ceasefire deal.

What they are saying: Hamas delivered the bodies to the Red Cross in a military "ceremony" that included anti-Israeli slogans.

• UN human right commissioner Volker Turk condemned the display.
• "Under international law, any handover of the remains of deceased must comply with the prohibition of cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment, ensuring respect for the dignity of the deceased and their families," he said in a statement.

What's next: Witkoff is expected to speak by phone on Thursday with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman al-Thani about the second phase of the deal, which is due to begin on March 1.

• Netanyahu made it clear in a cabinet meeting this week that Israel's positions regarding the second phase of the deal will be based on the war goals defined by the cabinet, officials said.
• Israel demands that Hamas not continue to control Gaza, that Gaza be demilitarized of heavy weapons, and that senior Hamas military and political leaders in Gaza leave the strip and go into exile, the officials added.
• An Israeli official said that in light of the fact that there are less than two weeks left until the end of the first phase of the deal and in light of the very wide gaps between Israel and Hamas regarding the second phase, an attempt will be made to find an interim solution.
• The Israeli official said that Israel and the U.S. will try to reach understandings with Hamas on extending the first phase of the deal, in which more hostages will be released in exchange for an extension of the ceasefire, while negotiations on the second phase continue.

The other side: A Hamas official told AFP on Wednesday that the militant group is prepared to release all of the remaining hostages "in one batch" if the second phase of the deal is agreed and enters implementation.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with comment from the Israel Defense Forces.

The Trump administration has given Ukraine an "improved" draft for a minerals agreement between the countries after President Volodymyr Zelensky infuriated President Trump by rejecting his initial offer, a Ukrainian official, a U.S. official and three sources with knowledge tell Axios.

Why it matters: The disagreement over minerals helped spark a wider crisis in relations this week, with Trump denouncing Zelensky as a "dictator" who chose war with Russia, and Zelensky accusing Trump of swallowing Russian "disinformation."

The intrigue: Sources on both sides now say a deal is looking more likely.

• A source with knowledge said several of Zelensky's aides have encouraged him to sign the updated proposal to avoid a further clash with Trump and allow the U.S. president to justify U.S. support for Ukraine.
• "There was significant improvement in the recent draft and it is in conformity with Ukrainian law," the source said.
• National security adviser Mike Waltz told reporters Thursday that Zelensky needed to "come back to the table" on the minerals issue.
• "This is a negotiation. And in a negotiation, you negotiate. Ukraine wants to negotiate minerals, so we're talking about it," a White House official said.

The big picture: Ukraine sits on significant reserves of rare earth minerals critical to the world's most cutting-edge technologies. In total, the value of the minerals could run into the trillions of dollars.

• The minerals agreement is not explicitly linked to any settlement to end the war in Ukraine, but the two issues have collided this week in dramatic fashion.

Catch up quick: The idea for an economic partnership between Ukraine and the U.S. was brought up originally last September by Zelensky during a meeting with Trump in New York.

• Last week, three hours before Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent arrived for a meeting with Zelensky in Kyiv, the U.S. ambassador delivered a draft agreement for cooperation on the mining of minerals.
• The draft agreement said 50% of the resulting revenues would be given to the U.S., that the agreement would be under the jurisdiction of a New York court, and the deal would override any of Ukraine's other trade agreements, according to two sources who read the original draft.
• During their meeting, Bessent told Zelensky that Trump insisted he sign it right away. Zelensky told Bessent he couldn't sign an agreement he had only just received.

Between the lines: The Ukrainians were also disappointed that the U.S. draft didn't include any security guarantees for Ukraine and that it was being pushed on them at a time when Ukraine was also being excluded from U.S.-Russia talks about Ukraine's future.

• But they were also surprised when Trump began to attack Zelensky publicly, including over the minerals proposal.

What they're saying: "Scott Bessent actually went there and was treated rather rudely because essentially they told him 'no,'" Trump told reporters on Wednesday. "He came back empty. They wouldn't sign the document."

• Several days later, when Zelensky met Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Munich, they presented him with a less binding draft memorandum of understanding about the mining of minerals, a Ukrainian official said.
• Zelensky told Vance and Rubio he couldn't sign because such an agreement must be approved by parliament, per the Ukrainian constitution.
• "That was news to us that Zelensky's team never told us before that meeting," a Trump administration official said. "It didn't seem like it was in good faith."
• The White House and Zelensky's office did not respond to requests for comment.

Behind the scenes: Zelensky's position on the minerals deal was one of the issues that frustrated Trump and other senior U.S. officials and exacerbated the existing tensions over the U.S.-Russia meeting in Saudi Arabia, U.S. and Ukrainian officials say.

• "There is a lot of frustration. Vice President Vance was very frustrated leaving the Munich Security Conference. That is on top of the president [being frustrated]," Waltz told Fox News on Thursday.
• "We proposed to have the U.S. co-invest with Ukraine in its economy and natural resources and become a partner in Ukraine's future. This is the best security guarantee they can hope for. More than another pallet of ammunition."
• "Why are we getting pushback and badmouthing in the press? It's unacceptable. They need to tone it down. Take a hard look and sign this deal," Waltz said.

State of play: Trump said on Wednesday night that he was trying to "resurrect" the minerals deal.

• A Ukrainian official, a U.S. official and two sources with knowledge told Axios that in recent days negotiations continued, with the U.S. presenting Ukraine with an updated version that addressed some of Zelensky's concerns.
• Another source said some articles that had concerned the Ukrainians — including that the deal was under the jurisdiction of the New York court — were removed.

The latest: Zelensky met on Thursday in Kyiv with U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg and discussed the minerals agreement, the battlefield situation, the return of prisoners of war and security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a future peace agreement.

• After the meeting, Zelensky issued a statement thanking the U.S. for its assistance and bipartisan support.
• "Ukraine is ready for a strong, effective investment and security agreement with the President of the United States. We have proposed the fastest and most constructive way to achieve results. Our team is ready to work 24/7," he said.
• Waltz claimed Kellogg had helped Zelensky realize the war needed to end.

President Trump escalated his attacks against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday by calling him "a dictator without elections."

Why it matters: The smear marks a new low in the deteriorating U.S.-Ukraine relationship. It comes as the Trump administration is negotiating a deal with the Kremlin to end Russia's war in Ukraine without Kyiv's participation in the talks.

Driving the news: "A Dictator without Elections, Zelenskyy better move fast or he is not going to have a Country left," Trump wrote in a Truth Social post. "I love Ukraine, but Zelenskyy has done a terrible job, his Country is shattered."

• Trump referred to Zelensky as a "modestly successful comedian" and claimed he "talked the United States of America" into spending billions of dollars to "go into a War that couldn't be won."
• Trump also said that the U.S. is "successfully negotiating an end to the War with Russia."
• He also reiterated his claim that Zelensky refuses to hold elections.

Reality check: Zelensky was democratically elected in a fair and free election. Under its constitution, Ukraine can postpone a scheduled election in wartime, and it did so last year because of the Russian invasion.

• Trump has never called Russian President Vladimir Putin a dictator.

Catch up quick: Earlier this week, U.S. and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia to discuss the war without inviting Ukraine to participate.

• After Zelensky complained that the U.S. has been working with Russia behind its back, Trump replied with public accusations against the Ukrainian president, falsely suggesting Ukraine started the war and that Zelensky is deeply unpopular with his own people.
• Zelensky responded by accusing Trump of living in a "disinformation space" created by the Kremlin.

The big picture: Putin expressed satisfaction on Wednesday about the negotiations with the U.S. and claimed that Ukraine would not be excluded from the process, Reuters reported.

• He added that he would be happy to meet Trump but clarified that such a meeting needs to be well-prepared.

What they're saying: Zelensky spoke on Wednesday with Sen. Lindsey Graham — a close Trump ally — about the president's comments. The Ukrainian president said he appreciates the bipartisan support of the U.S. Congress for Ukraine.

• "Senator Graham is constructive and doing a lot to help bring peace closer. It's all-important that security guarantees remain on the table—and that they work for Ukraine, for real and lasting peace," Zelensky said.
• Zelensky spoke earlier on Wednesday with NATO secretary general Mark Rutte.
• In a statement, Zelensky didn't refer directly to Trump's comments but stressed "we cannot allow Putin to deceive everyone again. Before any potential negotiations, all partners must clearly understand that strong security guarantees are the priority for lasting peace.

What's next: Zelensky is expected to meet on Thursday in Kyiv with U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg.

• "I told Zelensky we are working on a solution and asked him to give it time," Graham told Axios.
• Zelensky said it is "crucial" that his meeting with Kellogg "and our overall cooperation with the U.S.—remains constructive."

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional statements.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky fired back at President Trump on Wednesday and claimed he "lives in a disinformation space" created by the Kremlin.

Why it matters: The Trump administration's abrupt shift in U.S. policy toward Russia coupled with his verbal attack on his Ukrainian counterpart have increased the tension between Washington and Kyiv to its highest point in years.

Catch up quick: Trump attacked Zelensky publicly on Tuesday, several hours after a high-level meeting between U.S. and Russian officials wrapped up in Saudi Arabia.

• The Ukrainian government protested the fact that they were not invited to the meeting, which focused in part on a deal to end the war.
• Trump then falsely suggested Ukraine started the war and that Zelensky is deeply unpopular with his own people.
• "The leader in Ukraine is down at 4% approval ratings. Wouldn't the people of Ukraine need to have an election? Ukraine is being wiped out," he said.
• Recent polls in Ukraine show Zelensky's approval ratings are around 50% as the country nears the three-year anniversary of Russia's unprovoked invasion.

The other side: Zelensky said at a Wednesday press conference that Trump's claims about his approval ratings are Russian propaganda.

• Ukraine has information that shows this claim was raised in talks between Russian and U.S. officials, he added.
• "If someone wants to replace me right now, it's not going to happen," Zelensky said.
• The Ukrainian president claimed polls show that only 1% of Ukrainians support making concessions to Russia.
• "I can't sell our country... No one in Ukraine trusts Putin," he said.

Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov on Wednesday welcomed Trump's remarks about Ukraine and said the U.S. president showed he understands the Russian position.

What to watch: The Kremlin on Wednesday confirmed Trump's claim that a U.S.-Russia leaders summit could take place before the end of the month.

• A meeting between Zelensky and U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg scheduled for Thursday, is going to take place as planned, a Ukrainian official said.

President Trump sharply criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday, after U.S. officials met for talks with Russia, from which Ukraine was excluded.

Why it matters: Trump's comments — falsely suggesting Ukraine started the war and that Zelensky is deeply unpopular with his own people — will supercharge fears among Ukraine and U.S. allies that the Trump administration is siding with Moscow ahead of possible peace talks.

• They could also increase the tension and suspicion between the Trump administration and the Zelensky government.

Driving the news: Senior U.S. and Russian officials met on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia for more than four hours to discuss ending the war in Ukraine and preparing for a meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

• Both Russian and U.S. officials who participated in the meeting said publicly it was positive and successful. "The talks were very good," Trump later said from Mar-a-Lago.
• Trump said he is "much more confident" about the chances of getting a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine after the meeting in Saudi Arabia and that he thinks he could meet with Putin before the end of February.

Zelensky, however, said on Tuesday that the talks in Saudi Arabia were organized behind Ukraine's back.

• "We were not invited to the meeting between the U.S. and Russia in Saudi Arabia. It was a surprise for us and we learned about it from the media," he said.
• In protest of the meeting, Zelensky decided to postpone his unrelated visit to Saudi Arabia planned for Wednesday in order not to create "a false impression of negotiations."

What they're saying: Trump said he is "disappointed" with the complaints from Ukrainian officials who said they were not invited to the meeting in Saudi Arabia.

• "They had a seat at the table for three years," Trump said, adding the Ukrainian government could have settled its conflict with Russia by now. "When they are worried about not being seated, they could have made a deal long ago," he said.
• Trump weighed in on Ukraine's domestic politics and noted there have not been elections in the country because the government imposed martial law.
• "The leader in Ukraine is down at 4% approval ratings. Wouldn't the people of Ukraine need to have an election? Ukraine is being wiped out," he said.

Recent polls in Ukraine show Zelensky's approval ratings are around 50%.

• Trump added: "You should have never started it — you could have made a deal. I like him personally, but it is the leadership that allowed the war to go on."
• Trump's occasional comments suggesting Ukraine was somehow responsible for Russia's invasion have been a source of concern and consternation for Ukraine's other Western partners.
• Trump has not made similar criticisms of Putin or of Russia's authoritarian political system.

Israel and Hamas reached an agreement with Qatari and Egyptian mediators to expedite the release of six living hostages as part of the first phase of the hostage and ceasefire in Gaza deal, according to the Israeli Prime Minister's Office and a statement from Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya.

Why it matters: Three Israeli hostages will now be released one week earlier than expected. The move suggests both Hamas and Israel are concerned the ceasefire agreement will collapse before day 42 of the agreement at the end of next week and want to be sure they get what they consider the most important parts of the agreement.

• The expedition of the release of the hostages is also an achievement for the Trump administration, which pushed the parties to agree.

Behind the scenes: Two Israeli officials said the new agreement to expedite the release of the hostages was first raised by Hamas last week.

• The officials said Hamas in return would secure the release of 47 senior Hamas members who were released in a prisoner exchange deal with Israel in 2011 but were later arrested again by Israel.
• "Hamas feared that the agreement will not last until day 42 when these 47 prisoners were supposed to be release, because Israel will blow it up," an Israeli official said.

Driving the news: Among the three hostages whose release will be expedited are Avera Menegistu and Hisham al-Sayed, two Israelis who have been held by Hamas for more than a decade.

• In return for the expedited release, Israel will release more than 100 Palestinian prisoners, including the 47 prisoners previously released.
• In addition, Israel will allow heavy machinery into Gaza for clearing rubble and allow the entry of at least 300 mobile homes into the enclave.

Hamas is expected to return to Israel on Thursday the bodies of four Israeli hostages it has been holding.

• The bodies of four other hostages will be returned to Israel next Thursday, which will be day 40 of the ceasefire.
• In return, Israel will release in two rounds all women and minors it has arrested in Gaza since Oct. 8 who weren't involved in fighting.

What to watch: The Israeli security cabinet on Monday discussed the Israeli position regarding the second phase of the hostage and ceasefire deal.

• Less than two weeks before the end of the first phase of the agreement, no serious negotiations have taken place between Israel and Hamas about the second phase. Under the agreement, negotiations for the next phase were to begin three weeks ago.
• Al-Hayya said on Tuesday that Hamas is ready to immediately begin negotiations over phase two of the deal.

Senior U.S. and Russian officials met on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia for more than four hours to discuss ending the war in Ukraine and preparing for a Trump-Putin summit.

Why it matters: The meeting is another significant step in improving U.S.-Russia relations since last week's phone call between President Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

• The meeting created a lot of anxiety and frustration in the Ukrainian government, which is concerned about a U.S.-Russian deal behind Kyiv's back.

Driving the news: Saudi state television published a short video from the beginning of the meeting on Tuesday.

• The U.S. delegation was headed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and includes White House national security adviser Mike Waltz and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.
• The Russian side was represented by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Putin's top foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov.
• The Saudi mediators included Foreign Minister Faisal Bin Farhan and national security adviser Musaad al-Aiban.

What they're saying: "The talks went well," Ushakov told Russian media on Tuesday.

• He said the parties discussed the conditions for a Trump-Putin summit but stressed there is no date set.
• Ushakov added that the parties agreed to start negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine.

Behind the scenes: Waltz said in a briefing with reporters that during the meeting the U.S. side discussed its core principles for any future deal between Russia and Ukraine.

• "This should be a permanent end to the war and not a temporary one as it was in the past," he said.
• Waltz added that any future negotiations will have to include talks on territory and security guarantees.
• Witkoff called the talks "very solid."
• "The goal is to get a fair deal all parties can accept…I came out thinking the Russians are serious," Rubio said in the briefing.

The big picture: Lavrov told reporters that deployment of NATO troops in Ukraine "even under other flags" is unacceptable for Russia, which sees NATO expansion as a direct threat.

The other side: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said at a press conference with Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara on Tuesday that he decided to postpone his visit to Saudi Arabia planned for Wednesday after the U.S.-Russian summit in Riyadh.

• Zelensky said he didn't want to create a "false impression of negotiations" by visiting Saudi Arabia tomorrow.
• "We want just peace. Not peace that is negotiated behind the scenes without our involvement. We were not invited to the meeting between the U.S. and Russia in Saudi Arabia. It was a surprise for us and we learned about it from the media," he said.
• Zelensky said he notified the Saudi government about his decision to postpone the visit and added he will visit Saudi Arabia on March 10.

What's next: Waltz said the U.S. will consult with Ukraine and its European allies on the way forward. He stressed Trump wants to move forward with the diplomatic efforts very quickly.

• Waltz said no date has been set yet for a meeting between Trump and Putin.
• Rubio said a next step will be talks with Russia on "normalizing" the status of the U.S. and Russian diplomatic missions in both countries.

What we're watching: The Ukrainian president will meet later this week in Kyiv with U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg, who will also visit the front lines of the war with Russia.

• Zelensky said on Monday that he will have clarity about a possible meeting with Trump at the White House after he meets with Kellogg.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional information throughout.

President Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, is the congenial dealmaker for the very brash dealmaker-in-chief.

• Witkoff has an expanding portfolio that now includes Trump's biggest geopolitical challenge — negotiating a deal to end the war between Russia and Ukraine as part of a controversial reset of U.S. foreign policy.

Why it matters: Trump's cage-rattling agenda — which has shocked European allies — is a keystone of his second term. He'll rely heavily on Witkoff, a billionaire real estate investor and friend for 40 years, to make it happen.

Zoom in: Associates describe Witkoff, 67, as something of a velvet glove when it comes to negotiating — smooth and to the point.

• Witkoff helped persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to release U.S. teacher Marc Fogel on Monday, after talks in Moscow.
• Witkoff played a key role in getting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire-and-hostages deal with Hamas last month.
• He's also Trump's point man for talks the president wants to have with Iran to try to reach a new nuclear deal later this year, U.S. officials say.

Trump aides emphasize that Witkoff shouldn't be seen as overshadowing Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Witkoff was instrumental in advising Trump to pick Rubio, Vice President Vance and White House national security adviser Mike Waltz for their positions.

• They've all worked with Witkoff on the Middle East. But a senior Arab official said it's clear to everyone in the region that Witkoff is Trump's ultimate representative — and that if you want to cut a deal, you do it with him.

Between the lines: Witkoff's negotiating tactics are rooted in his experience as a New York real estate mogul, according to those who know him.

• They say Witkoff knows when to employ charm, which he prefers, and when to apply pressure that can channel Trump's intimidating demeanor.
• "The president sees Steve as one of the world's great dealmakers," said one White House official. "Game respects game."
• "He's very respectful and direct," said one official who's seen Witkoff work. "He doesn't apologize for the president or undercut him. You never hear him say: 'Oh, I agree with you and disagree with Trump.'"
• "He has all the good of Trump but he does not need the limelight," the official said. "He does not need to fly like Icarus, too close to the sun."

Israeli officials who worked with Witkoff on the Gaza ceasefire deal described him as energetic and informal. Witkoff even came to some negotiation sessions in Doha wearing sweatpants, a sweatshirt and sneakers.

• Witkoff's energy "was a key factor that led to the deal," an Israeli official said.

Witkoff favors swift, direct and to-the-point talks.

• "He wants to talk to people that are empowered to close a deal, and not waste his time on talking to people that need to go back to their boss every two minutes to get approval," a source close to Witkoff said.

Reality check: Israeli and Arab officials told Axios that Witkoff still needs to become more knowledgeable about the Middle East — the different players and the historical and emotional sensitivities that underpin conflicts there.

• Concerns about the U.S. trying to impose a shortsighted policy in Gaza have heightened amid Trump's call for Palestinians to be removed from war-torn Gaza and relocated permanently to Jordan and Egypt — a plan few see as remotely workable.

Trump's team faces a significant challenge in talks with Putin over Ukraine. During his invasions of Ukrainian lands in the past decade, Putin has shown no willingness to compromise.

• But much to the consternation of America's European allies, Trump's administration has indicated the U.S. is willing to allow Russia to keep some of the territory it has gained.

Flashback: Witkoff was a behind-the-scenes negotiator and fixer during Trump's 2024 campaign.

• He organized a bury-the-hatchet meeting between Trump and his bitter GOP primary rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
• After Trump savaged popular Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) for rejecting Trump's claim that the 2020 election was stolen, it was Witkoff who met with Kemp to smooth things over.
• Witkoff flew to Kiawah Island, S.C., for a secret meeting with another primary rival, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.
• Witkoff was in the room when Trump had his reconciliation meeting with Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago last July. He was also present when Trump met the Emirati and Qatari leaders in September.

The Trump-Witkoff relationship dates to the mid-1980s, when Trump was a rising New York builder and Witkoff was a real estate lawyer.

• The two became golf buddies and dinner companions. Trump came to appreciate that, unlike others in Trumpworld, Witkoff wasn't seeking fame.
• And unlike many other longtime friends of Trump's, Witkoff didn't ditch him after the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. That resonated with Trump.

"Steve has stayed loyal and asked for nothing," an administration official said.

• Trump often used Witkoff's Gulfstream G6 jet during the campaign, including when the Secret Service feared that Trump's jet would be targeted by Iranian assassins. Vance took a secret flight on Witkoff's plane to meet with Trump just before his selection as the VP nominee.
• Witkoff also flew to Israel and Qatar for the negotiations that produced the Gaza deal. He gave Joe Biden's Middle East adviser, Brett McGurk, a ride back to Washington after they sealed the deal.
• Last week, Witkoff's jet flew to Russia to bring back Fogel, who'd been held there since 2021 for carrying a small amount of marijuana into the country.

Hamas released three hostages on Saturday, including American citizen Sagui Dekel Chen, as part of the Gaza ceasefire deal.

Why it matters: Hamas' decision to comply with the deal's original terms ended the standoff that imperiled the fragile ceasefire agreement.

• Another 14 hostages are supposed to be released in the next two weeks as part of the first phase of the ceasefire deal, six of them are alive.

Like previous releases in recent weeks, Hamas organized a public "ceremony" and paraded Sagui Dekel Chen, Sasha Troufanov and Iair Horn before handing them over to the Red Cross.

• 36 Palestinian prisoners who were serving life sentences for murdering Israelis and 333 Palestinians who were detained by the IDF in Gaza during the war were released on Saturday.

The big picture: President Trump issued a public ultinaum this week, saying the ceasefire should end if Hamas did not release all remaining hostages by noon on Saturday.

• On Friday, when it was clear Hamas was only going to release three hostages and that the Israeli government would accept that, Trump said he would have taken a harder stance if he was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
• Trump also took credit for the release of the three hostages and claimed his ultimatum forced Hamas to back off from their threat not to release the three hostages.
• The Israeli prime minister's office, which has been scrambling in recent days in order to move forward with the original plan for the release without publicly contradicting Trump, decided on Saturday to give the U.S. president credit for the release.

The prime minister's office said Hamas tried to violate the deal and create "a false crisis under false claims".

• "But due to the concentration of our forces inside the Strip and around it, and to President Trump's clear and unequivocal statement, Hamas backed down, and the release of the hostages proceeded."

"Hamas has just released three Hostages from GAZA, including an American Citizen. They seem to be in good shape! This differs from their statement last week that they would not release any Hostages," Trump said in a Truth Social post Saturday.

• "Israel will now have to decide what they will do about the 12:00 O'CLOCK, TODAY, DEADLINE imposed on the release of ALL HOSTAGES. The United States will back the decision they make!"

What's next: Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Sunday to discuss the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal.

• White House envoy Steve Witkoff will also arrive in Israel on Sunday for discussions about Gaza.

Munich - Vice President JD Vance shocked many European leaders who came to his speech at the Munich Security Conference expecting to hear about Ukraine, when he instead focused on what he called "the threat from within" Europe.

Why it matters: Vance dove headfirst into the politics of America's European allies, lambasting what he described a "retreat" from shared democratic values when it comes to issues like abortion, social media censorship and immigration.

• "If American democracy survived 10 years of scolding from Gretta Thunberg, Europe can survive several months of Elon Musk," Vance joked. Almost nobody in the room laughed.

Driving the news: Many European officials hoped to hear from Vance about the Trump administration's strategy for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Vance said only one sentence on that issue, before lecturing his audience over mass immigration and free speech.

• Vance mentioned the cancelation of the elections in Romania, raids by German police over alleged hate speech by anti-feminist activists, and the reported arrests in the U.K. of anti-abortion activists.
• "Free speech, I fear, is in retreat in Europe," he said. He claimed the same was true in the U.S. under former President Biden, but "there is a new sheriff in town in Washington."

Vance argued European leaders should "allow citizens to speak their mind" and be more responsive to the voices of their people — including by allowing parties deemed extreme into government.

• "There is no room for firewalls," Vance said. "If you are running in fear of your own voters, there is nothing America can do for you."
• Vance contended in his speech that Europe's real problem is mass migration, but mainstream parties still refuse to work with anti-immigrant parties.

Between the lines: Germany's major parties have collectively refused to govern alongside the far-right AfD.

• The party is second in the polls ahead of elections next week, and gained the endorsement of Elon Musk, but Germany's intelligence services consider it an extremist group.
• Vance also accused the Munich Security Conference of not allowing far-right and far-left politicians to attend the annual event.

The other side: A senior German politician who listened to Vance speech summed it up with one sentence: "It was a big boost to the far right in Germany and in Europe".

Hamas published on Friday the list of the three hostages who will be released on Saturday as a part of the Gaza ceasefire deal, among them U.S. citizen Sagui Dekel-Chen.

Why it matters: Hamas' decision to comply with the deal's original terms should end the standoff that imperiled the fragile ceasefire agreement — unless President Trump has other plans.

• The Israeli prime minister's office confirmed Hamas' statement and said the list of hostages is acceptable.
• "We managed to postpone the crisis for next week," a senior Israeli official said.

Yes, but: Shortly after the Israeli prime minister's office issued a statement that the list is acceptable, it released a second statement claiming there was a "typo" in the previous statement and that Israel doesn't express any position regarding the list Hamas published.

• An Israeli official said Netanyahu doesn't wan't to say publicly and officially that he accepts the release of only three hostages tomorrow when Trump still demands the release of all hostages by Saturday.

Catch up quick: Hamas said Monday that it would indefinitely postpone the release of three hostages scheduled for this weekend, alleging Israel was violating the ceasefire. Refusing to release the hostages would be a breach of the agreement.

• President Trump responded by declaring that the ceasefire should end if Hamas does not release all 76 hostages it is still holding — a demand that goes far beyond what is laid out in the agreement brokered by former President Biden's administration.
• Netanyahu alluded to those remarks by Trump and warned that Israel will end the ceasefire and resume the war in Gaza if Hamas doesn't "return our hostages by Saturday at noon."
• Nevertheless, Netanyahu did not specifically align himself with Trump and did not say how many hostages he expects to be released on Saturday.
• After 48 hours of negotiations between Hamas and the Egyptian and Qatari mediators, the group agreed on Thursday to walk back its threat to suspend the hostage release.

What to watch: It is not clear whether Trump is going to accept the release of only three hostages or call for the end of the ceasefire when his demand isn't met.

What's next: Other than Dekel-Chen, Hamas is still holding five American hostages. One, Edan Alexander, is still alive.

• The remaining five hostages will only be released if Israel and Hamas reach an agreement on the second phase of the hostage and ceasefire deal.
• Negotiations on the second phase of the deal were supposed to begin last week, but no serious talks have taken place.

Go deeper: Netanyahu sees Trump's Gaza gambits as Israel's big chance

Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky told President Trump during a phone call on Wednesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin is only pretending to want to negotiate a peace deal because he is "afraid of you," a Ukrainian official and three other sources with knowledge of the call tell Axios.

Why it matters: Trump's phone calls with Putin and Zelensky on Wednesday launched his diplomatic effort to push for a deal to end the war in Ukraine, and raised concerns among some NATO allies that Trump might be backing Zelensky into a corner by pushing for talks while taking some of his likely demands off the table.

• While Trump told Zelensky he got the impression that Putin wants a deal, the Ukrainian president expressed a more skeptical view about the intentions of his Russian counterpart.
• "Zelensky's message to Trump was 'you have leverage over Putin,'" one source briefed on the call said.
• While Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth this week ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine, or sending in U.S. troops to guarantee Ukraine's security, Trump expressed support in the call for a European peacekeeping force, the sources say. He also told Zelensky who would be part of the U.S. negotiating team.
• Zelensky's office declined to comment. The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Behind the scenes: Three sources said the call between Trump and Zelensky was positive and went on for about an hour, longer than the call Trump had with Putin immediately before.

• Trump told Zelensky that he understands his concerns about him talking to Putin, but stressed there is no way around it if he wants his diplomatic efforts to be successful.
• "I need to talk to Putin in order to save Ukraine," Trump told Zelensky, according to the sources.

The intrigue: Trump also told Zelensky Putin wants a deal, and asked if Zelensky is still committed to getting one.

• Zelensky replied that he still wants a deal, but that he thinks Putin is just telling Trump what he wants to hear.
• "Putin told you he wants a deal only because he is afraid of you, because you are strong," Zelensky told Trump, according to the sources.
• Trump told the Ukrainian president that he could be right, but his impression was that Putin is serious. "We will know soon," Trump added, according to two of the sources.

Zoom in: The U.S. president told his Ukrainian counterpart that he understands Ukraine will need security guarantees as part of any future deal, and that he thinks a European peacekeeping force along the front with Russia could be one solution, the sources said.

• Trump told Zelensky that his upcoming meeting with Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Munich will be very important in order to launch the diplomatic process.
• He told Zelensky that CIA Director John Ratcliffe and White House envoy Steve Witkoff are also going to be on the U.S. negotiating team, and asked that Zelensky appoint his own negotiating team.
• Trump ended the call by giving Zelensky his personal number and said he can call him directly, one source said.
• Zelensky told Trump at the end of the call that he would give him a championship belt from Ukrainian heavyweight boxer Oleksandr Usyk.

Between the lines: Trump didn't mention U.S. envoy for Russia-Ukraine Keith Kellogg either in the call with Zelensky or in his public remarks.

• Kellogg also traveled to Munich for talks on the Russia-Ukraine war and is expected to go from there to Kyiv, but Ukrainian officials question whether he is still a relevant player.
• White House press secretary Karoline Levitt said on Wednesday that Kellogg "remains a critical part of this team and this effort."

During the call, Zelensky also told Trump there had been Russian strikes on Kyiv and other cities overnight.

• Trump asked whether Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who was on a trip to Ukraine, was already in Kyiv when it happened. Zelensky said he arrived after the strikes.
• Trump joked that if Bessent heard air strikes he "would have run away back to the U.S. already."

The Trump administration welcomed on Wednesday Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' decision to revoke the system of payments to families of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails or to families of Palestinians who were killed or wounded during attacks against Israelis.

Why it matters: The Trump administration's positive response is an achievement for the Palestinian Authority, which wanted to prove that it conducted a serious reform in the payment system that was dubbed by its critics "pay for slay."

• The U.S. and Israel have argued for years that the system incentivized attacks on Israelis, and they repeatedly demanded that the Palestinian Authority revoke it.
• While Israel outright rejected the reform carried out by the Palestinian president, calling it "a fraud," the Trump administration's statement indicates it does not automatically adopt the Israeli interpretation.

Driving the news: According to Abbas' presidential decree, all the payment system and its database will move from the Palestinian government to a new independent entity called the Palestinian National Foundation for Economic Empowerment.

• In addition, the criteria for getting welfare allowances has been changed. The payment will not be connected anymore to the amount of jail time a prisoner was sentenced to or to whether a Palestinian was killed during an attack on Israelis, but only to the social economic needs of the family.

What they're saying: A State Department spokesperson told reporters that the announcement by the Palestinian Authority that they have ended the prisoner payment program "appears to be a positive step and a big win for the Trump Administration."

• The spokesperson added: "We welcome any and all steps to end this abhorrent practice. We will monitor how the law is implemented over the coming weeks and months, and will verify that the practice has ended."

Behind the scenes: Palestinian officials said earlier this week after the presidential decree was published that Abbas' top aide spoke on the phone with White House envoy Steve Witkoff and discussed the issue.

• U.S. and Palestinian officials said that in the past 48 hours State Department and White House lawyers reviewed it to see if it conforms with the Taylor Force Act.
• The law prohibited the U.S. government from providing any direct financial assistance to the Palestinian Authority as long as it gives payments to Palestinians involved in such attacks.
• The State Department spokesperson didn't say whether the reform conformed with the law.

President Trump said Wednesday that he might meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Saudi Arabia.

Why it matters: Trump made the comment a few hours after speaking with Putin in their first publicly disclosed call since Trump took office. Trump said they had agreed on "starting negotiations immediately" to end the war in Ukraine, which is approaching its third anniversary.

• Trump also seemed to make key concessions on Ukraine's behalf ahead of any such talks, saying: "I don't think it is practical for Ukraine to have NATO membership" and that it's "unlikely that Ukraine gets all of its land back."
• However, Trump later said that he thought "some of that land will come back" to Ukraine.
• Earlier on Wednesday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had ruled out a role for U.S. troops in guaranteeing Ukraine's postwar security and called on Ukraine to give up on reclaiming all of its occupied territory.

The latest: Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, Trump floated the idea of meeting Putin in Saudi Arabia, along with the Saudi crown prince.

• He did not lay out a timeline and said he would deal with Putin on the phone in the meantime.
• The phone call and potential meeting — along with a prisoner swap announced Tuesday — are signs the frozen U.S.-Russian relationship is thawing.

The other side: Trump also spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday to brief him on the conversation with Putin.

• Zelensky wrote on X that his phone call with Trump was "meaningful" and focused on the "opportunities to achieve peace."
• "No one wants peace more than Ukraine. Together with the U.S., we are charting our next steps to stop Russian aggression and ensure a lasting, reliable peace. As President Trump said, let's get it done," Zelensky wrote.

Between the lines: In an interview with the Economist published on Wednesday, Zelensky had said he'd had little contact with Trump's team and raised concerns about "any decision-making" on Ukraine taking place without Kyiv's involvement.

Zoom in: Trump wrote on Truth Social that his call with Putin was "lengthy and highly productive" and that they discussed Ukraine, the Middle East, energy, artificial intelligence, "the power of the Dollar" and other issues.

• "We each talked about the strengths of our respective Nations, and the great benefit that we will someday have in working together. But first, as we both agreed, we want to stop the millions of deaths taking place in the War with Russia/Ukraine," Trump wrote.
• Trump added that during the call Putin used his "Campaign motto of common sense. We both believe very strongly in it."
• He said they both agreed to work closely together and visit each other's countries.

Driving the news: The call came a day after the U.S. and Russia implemented a deal for the release of American detainee Marc Fogel.

• On Wednesday, one U.S. citizen and two Belarusian nationals, one of whom worked for Radio Liberty, were released from detention by the Belarusian government, two White House officials said.
• A White House official said the three are currently at the U.S. embassy in Lithuania and their identity wasn't being released out of respect for their privacy.
• The official said the U.S. didn't release any prisoners in return.

The U.S. did release a Russian crypto-hacker named Alexander Vinnik as part of the exchange for Fogel, two White House officials said.

• Vinnik was extradited to the U.S. in 2022 and two years later pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit money laundering.
• In recent months he'd been awaiting sentencing.
• As part of the deal, Vinnik is forfeiting $100 million in digital assets to the U.S. government, the White House officials said.

Behind the scenes: White House officials say the deal to release Fogel was in the works for many days but took its final shape in the last 72 hours.

• White House national security adviser Mike Waltz, special envoy Steve Witkoff and officials from the State Department and the CIA were all involved in the negotiations.

One of the people involved on the Russian side was the head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund, Kirill Dmitriev, Witkoff told reporters on Wednesday.

• "He was bridging between the two sides," Witkoff said.

Another key mediator was Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman who Witkoff said was "instrumental" in getting the deal.

• "He has a very strong friendship with President Trump. He encouraged and pushed behind the scenes. He was a cheerleader for the deal and for the two leaders to come together," Witkoff said.
• Trump said bin Salman would likely take part in his potential meeting with Putin.

What's next: Trump said he asked Waltz, Witkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA director John Ratcliffe to lead the negotiations with Russia and Ukraine.

• Trump wrote on Truth Social after his call with Zelensky that Vice President Vance and Rubio will meet Zelensky on Friday in Munich to start discussing peace talks with Russia.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details.

Alexander Vinnik, the Russian co-founder of a bitcoin exchange, was handed over to Russian authorities in Moscow on Thursday after being repatriated as part of a prisoner swap that freed American teacher Marc Fogel, a U.S. official told Axios.

Why it matters: President Trump has hailed the exchange as a "fair deal" after panning past prisoner exchanges with Russia as imbalanced or otherwise poorly negotiated.

The latest: The Trump administration released Vinnik as part of the exchange for Fogel, two U.S. officials said Wednesday.

• Vinnik, the co-founder of the bitcoin exchange BTC-e, pleaded guilty last year to conspiracy to commit money laundering and was due to be sentenced this coming June.
• Vinnik had been in U.S. custody in California.

Driving the news: Earlier Wednesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to identify the Russian prisoner by name at a press briefing, though he confirmed a swap would occur, Russian state news agency TASS reported.

• The swap's order of events varies from typical prisoner exchanges, in which prisoners are released simultaneously, with their identities revealed at the same time, AP reported.

State of play: Fogel, 63, is from the Pittsburgh area and was a teacher at the Anglo-American School of Moscow.

• He was arrested in 2021 while he tried to enter Russia with a small amount of medical marijuana in his luggage. He was sentenced to 14 years in prison.
• Fogel arrived back in the U.S. Tuesday night.

Zoom out: Trump has been critical of prisoner exchanges in the past.

• After the Biden administration freed Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich as part of a historic prisoner exchange with Russia last year, Trump took to Truth Social to question the terms of the deal.
• "Are we releasing murderers, killers, or thugs? Just curious because we never make good deals," Trump wrote, adding that offering other countries something in exchange set a "bad precedent."
• He was also sharply critical of the Biden administration's prisoner swap for WNBA star Brittney Griner, which saw Russia receive a notorious arms dealer Viktor Bout in exchange.

Flashback: While Trump did manage to secure the release of some American detainees without an exchange during his first term, he also presided over at least four prisoner swaps, CNN reported.

Barak Ravid contributed reporting.

Go deeper: American teacher back in U.S. after Russia releases him from detention

Editor's note: This story has been updated throughout with new information.

President Trump's public ultimatum to Hamas this week and his stunning Gaza takeover plan have thrown the Israeli government into a frenzy of both excitement and confusion, Israeli officials tell Axios.

Why it matters: Trump has twice now taken far more hawkish public positions on Gaza than Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — himself a hardliner — at a very delicate stage of the ceasefire.

In the short term, that's complicated Netanyahu's decision-making.

• As one senior Israeli official told Axios, it's difficult for Netanyahu to go softer than Trump on issues connected to Gaza.
• "The atmosphere among the ministers was that the Israeli government can't be less Trump than Trump on this," the official told Axios after a marathon security cabinet session on Tuesday.

But in the longer term, Netanyahu and his allies are beginning to believe Trump will help them get anything they want.

• "Bibi and the cabinet ministers are high on Trump," the senior Israeli official told Axios.
• More radical members of Netanyahu's government have been particularly emboldened by Trump's rhetoric, with some now convinced they no longer need to worry about withdrawing from Gaza or holding further negotiations with Hamas.
• "There was this feeling of intoxication in the room, like all of our Gaza problems are now solved because Trump said something," the official said.

Between the lines: Some Israeli officials are concerned that this euphoria could lead to the collapse of the first phase of the Gaza deal, possibly as soon as this weekend.

• That would leave nine hostages who were supposed to be released in the next three weeks, among them an American, in Hamas captivity.
• Around two dozen more hostages are due to be released in a second phase if the ceasefire survives that long.

Driving the news: Netanyahu told Trump last week at the Oval Office that he wants to hold serious talks on the second phase, which still needs to be negotiated.

• But after Trump saw the dire physical condition of the three hostages who were released on Saturday, he started losing patience about the phased structure of the deal.
• Then on Monday, Hamas said it was suspending the next release of hostages planned for Saturday due to alleged Israeli violations of the ceasefire.
• Several hours later, Trump replied with his public ultimatum — outflanking the Israeli government from the right and disregarding the painstakingly negotiated ceasefire agreement.
• "Not in drips. Not three and two. All of them," Trump said, declaring that if all remaining 76 hostages were not released by noon on Saturday the ceasefire should end "and all hell will break loose."

Behind the scenes: During consultations with the heads of Israel's security services and again in a four-hour security cabinet meeting on Tuesday, Netanyahu boasted about the huge and unprecedented opportunity Israel now has in Gaza with Trump in the White House for another four years, two Israeli officials briefed on the meetings told me.

• "Bibi said Israel is going to have full U.S. backing to destroy Hamas, do whatever it wants in Gaza," a senior Israeli official said.
• The official said the attitude among many ministers was that Israel must fully adopt Trump's ultimatum as its new policy and abandon the current framework of the hostage deal.
• Two Israeli officials said the heads of the Israeli negotiating team, including Shin Bet director Ronen Bar, pleaded with the ministers not to escalated the situation and to give the Qatari and Egyptian mediators a chance to find a solution that will secure the release of the three hostages on Saturday.

State of play: Netanyahu settled on a vague middle course, not adopting Trump's ultimatum but announcing that Israel would resume the war on Saturday if its hostages weren't released — without specifying how many hostages.

• His office followed up with a flurry of quotes, attributed to "an Israeli official," that only created more confusion.
• At one point the "Israeli official" said the nine remaining hostages from phase one of the deal should all be released on Saturday.
• Later the official shifted toward Trump's position, saying "they all should come out on Saturday."

What to watch: Israeli security officials think Netanyahu left enough wiggle room to continue the ceasefire if the three hostages scheduled to be released are freed on Saturday.

• Israel has made clear to Egypt and Qatar that they must make sure Hamas sticks to the agreement.
• "The chance of a hostage release on Saturday has significantly diminished. This is very worrying. We hope that the mediators will understand the situation and save the deal," an Israeli security official said.

Marc Fogel arrived in the U.S. on Tuesday night after Russia freed him from detention following envoy Steve Witkoff's visit to Moscow for talks that the White House said helped lead to the American teacher's release.

The latest: President Trump met Fogel at the White House on Tuesday night and stressed he appreciated Russian President Vladimir Putin releasing him. "It was a fair deal", Trump said, adding he thinks Fogel's release will show goodwill on Russia's part in terms of the war in Ukraine.

• Trump said another American who is detained abroad is going to be released on Wednesday.

Why it matters: White House envoy Witkoff's trip to Moscow and the release of the detained American are a major breakthrough in U.S.-Russian relations, which were almost completely frozen in recent years.

• The last visit by a senior U.S. official in Moscow was in 2021 when then-CIA director Bill Burns met Putin and warned him not to invade Ukraine.
• This development comes as Trump is working on launching diplomatic talks on ending the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Driving the news: The Moscow arrival of Witkoff's private jet was spotted earlier on Tuesday on flight radar apps, but the White House declined to comment for hours and issued the announcement only after Witkoff left Russian airspace with Fogel.

Flashback: Fogel was arrested in 2021 while he tried to enter Russia after a small amount of medical marijuana was found in his luggage. He was sentenced to 14 years in prison.

• Only three years after he was arrested, the U.S. government started seeing Fogel as a wrongfully detained American citizen.

What they're saying: "President Trump, Steve Witkoff and the President's advisors negotiated an exchange that serves as a show of good faith from the Russians and a sign we are moving in the right direction to end the brutal and terrible war in Ukraine," White House national security adviser Mike Waltz said in a statement.

What we're watching: In the coming days, the Trump administration is expected to ratchet up its diplomatic efforts to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.

• Vice President JD Vance is expected to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the Munich security conference this weekend, two sources said.
• White House envoy for Ukraine-Russia diplomacy Keith Kellogg will also attend the meeting in Munich and is expected to travel to Kyiv right after.

Editor's note: This article and headline have been updated to reflect that teacher Marc Fogel has returned to the U.S. and other additional developments have been added, including his meeting with President Trump.