• Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum on Monday.
• Canada, Mexico, and Brazil are key US steel suppliers; Canada, the UAE, and Mexico lead in aluminum.
• These tariffs would likely lead to higher consumer prices on cars, homebuilding, and household goods.

President Donald Trump is planning to double down on his tariff agenda with a 25% levy on all steel and aluminum imports — a move that would likely make building construction and car assembly more expensive.

"Any steel coming into the United States is going to have a 25% tariff," Trump told reporters on Sunday, adding the blanket tariff would also apply to aluminum. He said he would formally announce the tariffs on Monday but has yet to clarify when the measures would be imposed.

Census Bureau data showed Canada, Mexico, and Brazil were the main suppliers of steel and iron imports to the US in 2024 by dollar value. Iron can be used to produce steel.

In 2024, Canada, the United Arab Emirates, and Mexico were the main countries behind US imports of aluminum and bauxite — a material used to create aluminum — by dollar value.

One of Trump's main goals early in his second term has been limiting foreign trade with an eye toward bolstering domestic industries. Many economists have said the brunt of tariffs could fall on American consumers.

If the steel and aluminum tariff plan is implemented, Americans can expect various consumer goods, like pipes and cooking utensils, to become more expensive because of lower supply, higher demand, and steeper import costs. The travel and construction industries are also likely to be affected.

Aluminum is primarily used to manufacture automobiles, airplanes, kitchen appliances, cans, and electrical transmission lines, per the US Geological Survey. Steel is also used in automobile production, as well as in the construction of bridges, buildings, and homes.

The metals tariff proposal comes days after a set of new 10% tariffs were implemented on China, which quickly retaliated with a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas and a 10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery, and some vehicles. Additionally, the White House delayed a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico after Trump made a deal with the nations' leaders on border-protection measures.

Trump's plan for metal tariffs also follows other big news in the steel industry. Japan's Nippon Steel announced on Friday that it would drop its nearly $15 billion acquisition bid for US Steel, ending a yearslong battle over American steel production. Nippon Steel said it would instead "invest heavily" in US Steel.

The president's new focus on metals tariffs shouldn't come as a surprise. During his first term in office, he imposed a 25% tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum. He later granted some duty-free exemptions to top trade partners such as Canada, Mexico, and Brazil. It's not clear whether he will do the same this time around.

The Trump administration did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

• The Bureau of Labor Statistics revises employment estimates annually with new data.
• This year's revisions could show much lower job growth in 2024 than previously reported.
• It's part of the BLS making employment estimates more accurate.

Friday's job numbers may not be what you expect.

The report is likely to show slower job growth from last year due to a regular update to the government's data — likely among the biggest payroll adjustments in years. But, if the numbers come as a surprise, they shouldn't raise alarm bells.

TL;DR: In the January jobs report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revises the previous year's jobs figures with more complete numbers. This year, revisions are expected to show a double whammy of fewer jobs than previously measured and a larger overall population due to updates in Census Bureau numbers. It could all look like a weaker 2024 job market than previously measured.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics undertakes its benchmark revisions each year in the January employment report. The government recalibrates its basic estimates of job growth over the previous few years based on more complete data reported from businesses. This year's revisions are expected to show smaller job gains in 2024 than were previously reported.

The BLS has already provided an idea of how its new calibration will impact payroll data. A report released by the BLS in August showed that there were around 800,000 fewer jobs across the US economy in March 2024 than previously reported, a larger-than-usual decline relative to the earlier figure.

The headline monthly job growth numbers are based on a monthly survey of business establishments across the US. Any such survey measure represents an approximation of the underlying reality. The annual revisions recalibrate those surveys to more detailed but less timely measures of the full workforce based on administrative data like unemployment insurance records.

It's a bit like searching around for something in a dark room, versus turning on a light. While the initial jobs report gives the best and most timely estimate for employment across the world's biggest economy based on a relatively small sample of businesses, the revisions reflect additional and more complete information that takes a longer time to gather.

While these revisions happen every year, they've recently been relatively small. The below chart shows BLS payroll growth revisions for 2022 as reported in February 2023 and for 2023 as reported in February 2024. The revisions showed most months had larger job gains than reported earlier.

The household survey, which makes up the other half of the monthly jobs report, is also set to receive a major update.

That survey — which gathers information on Americans' socioeconomic health and provides the headline unemployment rate — will also be adjusted based on the Census Bureau's latest population estimates.

Updated Census estimates will likely result in a dramatic apparent uptick in population and employment after the Census Bureau improved how it measures immigration to the US, leading to a larger-than-usual adjustment to the underlying count of how many people live in the country. An apparent increase in employment between December and January would have more to do with those changes in the way the Census calculates population, not any real spike in the workforce. This also makes it difficult to compare household survey data accurately over time.

The likely upward jump in employment from the household survey and downward revision to payroll figures from the business survey could actually bring the two more in line with each other. For much of 2024, the business-derived employment figures suggested a rosier view of the labor market than those from the survey of workers. Combining the revisions together, we're likely to get a more coherent picture of a cooling but still decent job market.

Still, any substantial jumps in job numbers are likely a result of normal, regularly scheduled data recalibrations instead of unexpected economic conditions. Over time, recalibrations allow the Census and BLS to more accurately represent changes in America's workforce.

• Thousands of LA County homeowners face a volatile home insurance market.
• In recent months, State Farm — California's largest home insurer — dropped thousands of policyholders.
• Some have turned to the state's insurer of last resort.

Thousands of California homeowners at risk due to the Los Angeles County fires find themselves exposed in a volatile home insurance market.

Last year, California's largest home insurer — State Farm — canceled thousands of policyholders' plans across LA County, including the Pacific Palisades and parts of Santa Monica and Calabasas, that are under evacuation orders and warnings as the fires rage. Nearly 70% of State Farm policyholders in the affluent Pacific Palisades neighborhood were dropped by the company beginning in July 2024.

The following table shows the ZIP codes that were under evacuation orders or warnings as of Wednesday afternoon that had the highest rate of nonrenewals from State Farm last year.

Several other major insurers have dramatically restricted their coverage across California in recent years, citing surging costs from more frequent and intense disasters coupled with rising home repair costs and inflation.

Thousands of LA County homeowners who haven't been able to obtain private insurance have joined the ranks of those covered by the state's insurer of last resort — the Fair Access to Insurance Requirements (FAIR) plan. The FAIR plan is regulated by the state government and backed by a slew of private insurance companies. But its premiums tend to be much higher than typical private insurers and its coverage is often more restricted.

This table shows how FAIR insurance coverage has changed in the above ZIP codes between 2023 and 2024.

As private insurers have stepped back in recent years, the number of residential FAIR plan holders across the state jumped 123% between September 2020 and September 2024. The FAIR plan's dollar-value residential exposure surged from $271 billion in September 2023 to $431 billion in September 2024.

It's not clear how many homeowners impacted by the LA County fires are uninsured. Most mortgage lenders require homeowners to purchase insurance, and some require additional insurance for specific disasters, including fires.

Some major home insurers, including Farmer's — the second-largest in California — have recently begun to expand their offerings in California after the state announced new regulations requiring insurers to cover a certain percentage of homes vulnerable to fire in exchange for allowing them to use future risk modeling to calculate premiums.

In 2023, California had the fourth-highest home insurance nonrenewal rate among states, according to a recently released Senate Budget Committee report. Six of the top 10 counties in the country with the highest rates of nonrenewals by large home insurers in 2023 were in California, the report found.

But rising home insurance costs and rates of dropped policies are nationwide problems. The National Bureau of Economic Research recently reported that average home insurance premiums spiked by 13%, adjusted for inflation, between 2020 and 2023. The share of home insurance policies from large insurers that weren't renewed increased last year in 46 states, the Senate report found. And more than 200 US counties saw their non-renewal rates spike threefold between 2018 and 2023.

Areas more vulnerable to disasters, including flooding, wildfires, and hurricanes, have seen the biggest spikes in premiums and dropped policies.

"Our number one priority right now is the safety of our customers, agents and employees impacted by the fires and assisting our customers in the midst of this tragedy," a representative for State Farm told BI.

A representative from the California FAIR Plan Association also told BI in a statement that the insurer is "prepared" to handle the wildfire impact, and "has payment mechanisms in place, including reinsurance, to ensure all covered claims are paid."

Representatives for Farmer's did not respond for comment.

Have you been dropped by your home insurance company or are you facing a steep premium increase? Email this reporter to share your story: [email protected].