The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be above normal, NOAA meteorologists said Thursday in their annual forecast.

Why it matters: The outlook comes as the Trump administration explores downsizing or dismantling FEMA, the federal agency tasked with responding to storms and other natural disasters.

The big picture: This year is likely to have 13 to 19 named storms, with three to five of those being Category 3 hurricanes or stronger, according to National Weather Service director Ken Graham.

• This season isn't expected to be as active as last year's, he said, but it only takes one takes one storm to hit where you live.
• Colorado State University's forecast last month lines up with NOAA's — "above-normal" activity with 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

Zoom in: In response to questions about staffing cuts, Graham and acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm told reporters Thursday they are confident in their forecasting ability for the season.

• Graham also told Axios that NWS this year is seeing the same level of interest in weather briefings from their federal partners, including FEMA, as compared to last year, despite those cutbacks.
• "We are fully staffed at the Hurricane Center, and we definitely are ready to go," Grimm said.

Zoom out: Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center, is slated to give his annual congressional briefing Thursday afternoon about hurricane season preparedness.

Meanwhile, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem earlier this week reiterated the administration's priority to shift FEMA's responsibilities to states.

• "Our goal is that states should manage their emergencies and we come in and support them," she said at Tuesday's meeting to reform FEMA, according to Reuters.
• President Trump — whose budget proposes more than $646 million in cuts to FEMA — has signed executive orders aimed at streamlining the federal disaster agency and shifting more responsibility to the states, Axios' Natalie Daher writes. Fully eliminating FEMA would require an act of Congress.
• Other staffing cuts and changes being made to NOAA and its agencies, including the NWS, are raising concerns about reduced forecasting abilities.

Between the lines: David Richardson, the current acting head of FEMA as of earlier this month, has no experience managing natural disasters and acknowledged in private meetings that the agency doesn't yet have a fully formed hurricane response plan, the Wall Street Journal reported.

• "As FEMA transforms to a smaller footprint, the intent for this hurricane season is not well understood," warned an internal review obtained by CNN last week. "Thus FEMA is not ready."
• Since that leak, FEMA appears to be taking steps to bolster its disaster response efforts, according to CNN.

Threat level: Louisiana, Texas and Florida could face the greatest financial burdens in a world with less federal relief assistance, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick writes, based on new analysis from the Carnegie Disaster Dollar Database.

• Louisiana residents also have received the most FEMA direct assistance since 2015, according to Carnegie.
• Louisiana's congressional delegation expressed concern earlier this month to Axios about the federal government's ability to respond to a large-scale disaster.

The intrigue: NOAA's leadership gave the forecast in Gretna, a suburb of New Orleans, in recognition of the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's devastation in the region.

How it works: Atlantic hurricane season officially starts June 1, but storms can form any time.

• NHC began its daily tropical outlook May 15, and so far all has been quiet in the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic.
• Historically, the most active period for strong storms in the Gulf and the Atlantic is August and September.

What's next: Authorities urge residents to prepare now for the season by gathering emergency supplies, preparing their home for storms and making an evacuation plan.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional information.

Go deeper:

• These states would suffer the most without FEMA
• Trump's FEMA risks "flying blind" into hurricane season
• Contraflow is dying as a New Orleans hurricane evacuation option

President Biden mourned with New Orleans Monday night at a prayer service at the St. Louis Cathedral.

Why it matters: The community gathering was meant to help begin the healing after a terrorist attack on Bourbon Street killed 14 people and injured at least 35 more.

The big picture: "New Orleans defines strength and resilience," Biden said, "whether it's in the form of this attack or hurricanes or superstorms. This city, its people get back up."

• He and First Lady Jill Biden laid flowers at the Bourbon Street memorial built by residents on their way to the cathedral. He also met two of the NOPD officers injured in the gunfight taking down the accused attacker.
• His comments at the service focused on grief, which he said he is too familiar with. His first wife and child were killed in a car wreck. His son died of brain cancer.
• "It's not the same," he said. "We know it's been five days staring at that empty chair around the kitchen table, without hearing their voice."
• "I promise you the day will come ... when the memory of your loved one will bring a smile to your lips before a tear to your eye. ... My prayer is that that day comes sooner rather than later."

Zoom in: Each of the names of the dead were read in the standing-room only cathedral: Kareem Badawi, Martin "Tiger" Bech, Drew Dauphin, Nikyra Cheyenne Dedeaux, William "Billy" DiMaio, Hubert Gauthreaux, Reggie Hunter, Terrence Kennedy, Nicole Perez, Edward Pettifer, LaTasha Polk, Brandon Taylor, Matthew Tenedorio and Elliot Wilkinson.

• Biden and others placed candles for the dead and injured, while more than a dozen faith leaders offered prayers for healing, unity and peace.
• There were rabbis, imams, bishops and deacons from across the city, reflecting the diversity of the victims and New Orleans. Pope Francis also sent a message.
• Gov. Jeff Landry, Mayor LaToya Cantrell, NOPD chief Anne Kirkpatrick, Congressman Troy Carter, Gayle Benson, Mitch Landrieu, City Council members, first responders, law enforcement and officials across the region packed the pews.

In the room: The feeling was solemn and surreal, with many attendees talking about events earlier in the day for Twelfth Night to kick off the Mardi Gras season.

• The Joan of Arc procession was lining up elsewhere in the French Quarter while the Voices of Peter Claver choir members were singing "Let There Be Peace on Earth" inside the cathedral.

President Biden will visit New Orleans on Monday to "grieve with the families and communities" touched by the Bourbon Street terrorist attack, the White House announced Friday morning.

Why it matters: The ISIS-inspired truck attack killed 14 people and injured dozens more.

The big picture: First Lady Jill Biden will accompany the president, the White House said.

• The statement didn't give details about where the Bidens will go or with whom they will meet.

Driving the news: Monday is also Twelfth Night, which is the official start of the Mardi Gras season in New Orleans.

• Multiple parades are scheduled that night, including the Societé Jeanne d'Arc (Joan of Arc).
• Jeanne d'Arc co-captain Antoinette De Alteriis on Thursday said its procession will continue as they hope to be a "light in the darkness."
• Carnival culminates on Mardi Gras, which is March 4 this year. See the parade schedule.

Zoom out: Biden has been in contact with Mayor LaToya Cantrell since the attack, the White House said.

• Hours after it happened, the president called it a "terrible assault," and added that "the spirit of New Orleans will never, never be defeated."
• He gave a recorded message at the start of the rescheduled Sugar Bowl too, which was played less than a mile from the crime scene.

The latest: Bourbon Street reopened to the public on Thursday with new vehicle-resistant barricades on the sidewalks. Go deeper.

Catch up quick: A man whom the FBI identified as Shamsud-Din Jabbar, a 42-year-old U.S. Army veteran and a U.S. citizen from Texas, drove his truck around an NOPD SUV and onto a French Quarter sidewalk in the early hours of Jan. 1, as people were out celebrating the holiday.

• When Jabbar exited the truck, he began shooting, and three NOPD officers returned fire, officials have said. Two officers were among the injured.
• See the updated timeline.
• Details about victims in the attack began to emerge as loved ones learned of their identities, though New Orleans coroner Dwight McKenna said it'll take "several days" to perform all autopsies. Go deeper.

Go deeper:

• The victims of the Bourbon Street attack
• New Orleans leaders face questions over preventability of terror attack
• New Orleans parades to be "a light in the darkness" after terror attack

Editor's note: This story has been updated to include additional information.

New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell announced Wednesday a fund for victims of the New Year's Day Bourbon Street terrorist attack, which killed at least 15 people and injured dozens of others.

The big picture: Authorities identified the suspect as Shamsud-Din Jabbar, 42, a U.S. citizen from Texas, and have yet to publicly identify the victims. But families have come forward with details of loved ones killed in the attack in the French Quarter.

Nikyra Cheyenne Dedeaux, 18

Nikyra Cheyenne Dedeaux traveled from Gulfport, Mississippi, to attend New Year's Eve celebrations in New Orleans with her cousin and a friend on Tuesday, per NOLA.com.

• Known as Cheyenne, the 18-year-old graduated from Harrison Central High School in Gulfport last year and was due to start a nursing program at Blue Cliff College on Jan. 13, her mother told the outlet.
• "She was the sweetest person. She would give you anything, anything," Melissa Dedeaux, 40, said.

Matthew Tenedorio, 25

Matthew Tenedorio was an audiovisual technician for the Caesars Superdome, according to the GoFundMe created for his burial costs.

• He was a graduate of Pearl River Central High School in Carriere, Mississippi, his family wrote in the post.
• "Matthew was always the one to lighten the mood, able to laugh off life's challenges and spread positivity wherever he went," his cousins wrote on the fundraiser page.

Reggie Hunter, 37

Reggie Hunter and a cousin went to Bourbon Street after work on a "whim," saying "'Hey, the Sugar Bowl is tomorrow. It's New Year's Eve. Let's go to the city,'" his cousin Shirell Jackson told NOLA.com, in reference to the college football game that was postponed due to the attack.

• The pickup truck hit both, killing the 37-year-old Baton Rouge father of two and seriously injuring his cousin.
• Hunter's family started a GoFundMe for burial costs.

Tiger Bech, 27

Tiger Bech, a former standout college football player, was kept on life support until his family arrived, according to KLFY.

• He played football for St. Thomas More Catholic School in Lafayette, where he graduated in 2015, before going on to play for Princeton. He graduated from there in 2021, KLFY said.
• "Love you always brother," his brother Jack Bech posted on X on Wednesday. "You inspired me everyday now you get to be with me in every moment. I got this family T, don't worry. This is for us."

Nicole Perez, 28

Nicole Perez had a 4-year-old son and worked at a deli in Metairie, her family told NOLA.com.

• Her pregnant sister and her mother were admitted to the hospital after learning of Perez's death, the report said.
• Her employer created a GoFundMe for Perez's burial expenses.

Kareem Badawi

Kareem Badawi was a 2024 graduate of Episcopal School of Baton Rouge, WBRZ reports.

• The school is holding a prayer service at 6pm Thursday.
• His father, Belal Badawi, mourned his son on Facebook and asked "Allah Almighty to shower his mercy on him and give us patience and strength."

Hubert Gauthreaux, 21

Hubert Gauthreux was killed in the attack, his family said on Facebook.

The injured

• A University of Georgia student was critically injured, according to a statement from the school. Elle Eisele, 19, is from Fort Myers, Florida, WBBH reports.
• Steele Idelson, 19, also from Fort Myers, is among the injured, WBBH reports. She and Eisele both graduated from Canterbury School in Fort Myers in 2023. Idelson attends San Diego State University.
• Parker Vidrine, a 2024 alum of Episcopal in Baton Rouge, was critically injured, WBRZ says.
• Two Israeli nationals were injured, a Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson told ABC News. A representative of the Israeli Consulate is on his way to New Orleans, the report says.
• Adam Coste, an employee at the National WWII Museum in New Orleans, has "extensive injuries to his lower extremities," his friend wrote on a GoFundMe page for the Army veteran.

Zoom in: The victims are being treated at University Medical Center and other hospitals, according to the city.

• Families with loved ones at UMC are asked to go to the hospital's conference center on the first floor for information.

What's next: Orleans Parish Coroner Dwight McKenna on Wednesday afternoon said it will take several days to perform all the autopsies.

• "Once we complete the autopsies and talk with the next of kin, we will release the identifications of the victims," his statement said.

Go deeper: Sign up for Axios New Orleans

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

Rebecca Falconer contributed reporting.