Former Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell's (R-Ky.) conspicuous silence is starting to spook Tulsi Gabbard's team.

Why it matters: President-elect Trump Trump's transition thinks Gabbard, the nominee for director of national intelligence, can get confirmed even with a "no" vote from McConnell. But his public opposition — if it materializes — could open the door to other GOP defectors.

• Gabbard's team isn't banking on McConnell's vote, sources tell Axios.
• McConnell is studiously avoiding public or private indications that he'll support Trump's nominees, three people familiar with the matter tell Axios.
• Voting against Gabbard would resume hostilities between McConnell and Trump. It could have implications for big policy questions down the line, from funding Ukraine to raising tariffs.

📣 McConnell said on the Senate floor on Thursday that he'll support nominees to "senior national security roles whose record and experience will make them immediate assets, not liabilities, in the pursuit of peace through strength."

• When asked specifically about Gabbard, McConnell told CNN's Manu Raju he was not ready to announce whether he can back her.

Zoom in: Gabbard is focused on winning over members of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, where the GOP has a 9-8 voting advantage.

• Two key GOP swing votes sit on the Intel committee: Sens. Susan Collins (R-Me.), a former SSCI chair, and Todd Young (R-Ind.).
• Gabbard has met with every Republican and five of the eight Democrats, including Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), the ranking Democrat. She has reached out to all of them.
• Majority Leader John Thune can still bring Gabbard's nomination to a full floor vote even if she doesn't have the support to be recommended by the committee — but it would not be a great sign for her chances.

Between the lines: Most of Trump's nominees are pocketing hard "yeses" from senators, as they meet privately or appear before their committees.

• Former Fox News host Pete Hegseth, whose nomination as secretary of Defense appeared doomed in early December, appears to be a glide path to confirmation, barring any new revelations about his personal life.

The bottom line: If Democrats have any chance — and it's slim — at helping drag down a Trump nominee, they see Gabbard as the most likely prospect.

• Minority Leader Chuck Schumer views the party's grilling of Hegseth as a success.
• He'll demand the same for their treatment of Gabbard, HHS nominee RFK Jr. and FBI director nominee Kash Patel.

House Speaker Mike Johnson plans to name Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Ark.) to replace Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) as chair of the House Intel Committee, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Why it matters: Johnson is assembling his team to help implement President-elect Trump's sweeping agenda, which includes reform of the intelligence agencies.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has a "fairly lengthy list" of last-minute Biden regulations that Republicans may try to undo in the coming weeks, he told Axios.

Why it matters: The Congressional Review Act (CRA) gives Congress until mid-May to reverse what Republicans are calling the "midnight rules" of the Biden administration.

• Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) will kick things off next week by introducing three resolutions to erase Biden moves on crypto, energy and internet access.
• "We are scrubbing right now to determine what is eligible," Thune said at an event at the American Petroleum Institute earlier on Tuesday.

How it works: CRA resolutions have to pass with majority votes in both chambers of Congress.

• Those votes can only happen 15 legislative days into a new Congress — the power won't be available until late January or early February.
• The window for action closes 60 sessions into the new Congress.

Flashback: In early 2017, Trump and congressional Republicans used CRA resolutions to erase 16 Obama administration rules.

• In 2021, Biden and congressional Democrats returned the favor and repealed three Trump rules.

What they're saying: Cruz, who chairs the Commerce committee, told Axios that he is confident that his three resolutions will pass. He expects the process to move "expeditiously" after he files next week.

• One resolution would rescind a December regulation by the Energy Department that regulated gas water heaters.
• Another would undo an IRS rule — finalized last month — that has sparked outrage in crypto circles. The rule requires more reporting on income earned in cryptocurrencies. Sens. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) — who chairs the new crypto subcommittee— Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.) and Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.) are cosponsors.
• Cruz's final target is a FCC regulation that allow schools and libraries to lend Wifi hotspots to students through the E-Rate program. Cruz argued it violates the Communications Act, increases taxes and "opens up children to real risks of abuse" with no limits on their broadband usage.

What to watch: The law doesn't give a new Congress blanket authority to undo all of the previous administration's final rules and regulations.

• But Thune's team is trying to convince the Senate parliamentarian how they can use the CRA to undo California's tailpipe standard, which would require 100% of new cars sold by 2035 to be zero emission.
• "We are looking for lots of opportunities in that space and trying to argue with the parliamentarian," Thune said at the API event. "The whole California waiver issue … was such a radical regulatory overreach."

A progressive group that bolstered Robert F. Kennedy Jr. during the 2024 presidential campaign is also supporting a new war room that wants to scuttle his nomination for Health and Human Services Secretary.

Why it matters: The two tracks of support from the Sixteen Thirty Fund — which can accept unlimited and anonymous contributions— show how the dark money group takes a flexible approach to countering President-elect Trump's MAGA agenda.

• During the campaign, a super PAC it funded, Retire Career Politicians, tried to boost RFK, with ads claiming he "isn't afraid to tell the truth about vaccines." Republicans were convinced the effort was part of a broader scheme to siphon votes away from Trump.
• More recently, the Sixteen Thirty Fund is accepting donations on behalf of a new "Stop RFK War Room" effort, run by Protect Our Care, a liberal group that's running ads accusing RFK of spreading "deadly lies about vaccines."

Driving the news: Protect Our Care plans to spend close to $1 million on its new war room, which is running digital ads and coordinating opposition to the RFK nomination ahead of his confirmation hearing, according to a person familiar with the matter.

• Its executive director, Brad Woodhouse, a longtime Democratic strategist, told Politico that RFK's ideas are '"too dangerous" not to counter.

Zoom out: The Sixteen Thirty Fund acts as a clearinghouse for progressive causes, funneling unrestricted money — around $400 million in the 2020 campaign, according to the New York Times — to various organizations.

• Organized as 501(c)(4), contributions to the Sixteen Thirty Fund are not tax-deductible. But donors' names remain confidential.
• The group can spend up to 49% of its budget on political activities, including transfers to super PACs.

Zoom in: In the 2024 cycle, Sixteen Thirty Fund gave some $2 million to Retire Career Politicians, a super PAC that spent most of its $18 million on trying to defeat Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.).

• But the super PAC also spent some $400,000 on behalf of RFK. Some of that money was spent after RFK dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump.
• The Sixteen Thirty Fund's relationship with Protect Our Care goes back longer. It has been providing "fiscal support" for several years. Protect Our Care launched its "Stop RFK War Room" in November.

What they are saying: "We are proud to provide administrative and back-office services to support their (Protect Our Care) work to ensure that Americans can get the high-quality health care they need and deserve," said a spokesperson for the Sixteen Thirty Fund.

• "With regard to Retire Career Politicians PAC, Sixteen Thirty Fund provided the organization with unrestricted contributions in 2024. That is the extent of the relationship," the spokesperson said.
• "Neither of these efforts are at odds with the values of Sixteen Thirty Fund to achieve progressive outcomes."

The bottom line: It is difficult to estimate the total amount that Sixteen Thirty Fund spent on political activities in 2024.

• But they have been involved with both pro- and anti-RFK efforts.

Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth's confirmation hearing is becoming a test of will for Republicans on ensuring FBI files aren't distributed throughout the entire Senate.

Why it matters: The Trump transition team is demanding that the president-elect's nominees be treated the same way they insist Joe Biden's were.

• That means no FBI background check access for rank-and-file senators, according to two people familiar with the matter.
• Senate Armed Services chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) and ranking member Jack Reed (D-R.I.) have been briefed on the report. Others have not.
• A member of the Trump transition sat in on the FBI background briefing on Hegseth's file, a source familiar told Axios. The senators weren't given a copy of the file. They also weren't allowed to take notes or pictures.

Zoom in: Wicker privately raised the idea of letting his full committee see Hegseth's file, but Trump officials are opposed to sharing it, according to a person familiar with the matter.

• The Trump team wants to hold the line on having a consistent standard for all nominees.
• Look for them to fight any effort to release Hegseth's file, even if Wicker says there's not much of interest.

Zoom out: Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Dems are huddling tonight on how to respond, as Axios scooped earlier on Monday.

• Democrats admit the precedent is on the GOP's side. But they say the nature of Hegseth's nomination — including allegations of sexual misconduct that he's denied — at least deserves a conversation.
• "We should all be able to see the report and draw our own conclusions about how incomplete it is and even in the modest amount it covers, how much damage it does to Mr. Hegseth," Armed Services committee member Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) told Axios.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with details on the background briefing.

Stephen Miller, President-elect Trump's deputy chief of staff, is asserting himself as the key player in the White House's plan to pass Trump's sweeping agenda through Congress.   Why it matters: Trump trusts Miller implicitly, as does incoming Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, with whom Miller worked hand-in-glove on the campaign.

• Miller has become instrumental as Senate GOP leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) haggle over how to pass MAGA priorities, fast.
• Miller also gets Congress: While he initially called for a two-bill approach to immigration and tax reform, he has not publicly voiced his preference since Trump indicated he wants one "big beautiful bill."
• But Miller's allies inside Trumpland, not to mention senators and lawmakers, know that his top priority is immigration.

Zoom in: In a sign of the kind of power he wields, Miller presented alongside Trump during Wednesday's meeting with senators.

• Miller used the opportunity to provide a detailed plan of attack for Trump's first 100 executive orders, as Axios scooped.
• "Senators know that he's not just speaking faithfully to what the Trump Team wants, but he's offering counsel on how to enact the policies that we care about," said Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton.

Also in the meeting were Wiles, incoming deputy chief of staff James Blair and James Braid, Trump's incoming director of the Office of Legislative Affairs.

• While Miller talks policy, Braid — who previously served as Vice President-elect Vance's deputy staff chief in the Senate — and Blair will be taking over the process of getting the legislation passed.

Between the lines: Miller is one of the few Trump II officials who served in Trump I, and he served all four years, which was a rarity.

• He has frontline experience in the Senate, where he served as a top adviser to former Sen. Jeff Sessions.
• "It seems very clear that if you want to get a piece of legislation done, you got to work with Stephen Miller," a top adviser to a GOP senator told Axios.

What we're hearing:  Miller's allies — and even his enemies on the left — say that he derives much of his power from his deep understanding of immigration and the border.

• "No one knows more than Stephen on this," one Trump adviser told Axios.
• "Stephen is the Swiss Army knife for Trump: He does the policy, the politics and the media," a Trump insider told Axios.
• Miller is previewing his tactical plans to stem illegal immigration: "We are going to use the Defense Department to secure the border of our country," he told Newsmax.
• Miller did not respond to a request for comment.

Insiders say Miller, 39, has improved his bedside manner from Trump's first term, when he rubbed some staffers and Hill leaders the wrong way.

• "In the past, he would just bull rush to get his way and he didn't care what enemies he made," said a third Trump adviser.
• "Now he works the sh--t out of everybody. ... Yeah, he has the ear of the president, but now he gets allies so that he can just have surround sound."

The intrigue: Senators frequently discuss what they have heard from Miller on reconciliation strategy — more than any other Trump team member, a senior Hill aide told Axios.

• Miller is also discussing Trump's tax and foreign policy with lawmakers.

Zoom out: With inauguration 10 days away, House and Senate Republicans are locked in a staring contest over a tactical question that has consumed Congress: one or two bills.

• Trump seems content to let them fight it out. The House and Senate are basically pursuing two parallel tracks, racing for a finish line neither side can define.

The bottom line: Miller is seen by many as not just Trump's man on the Hill, but one of the most influential figures in Washington.

• "Stephen right now looks like he'll be the most powerful unelected man in the White House," said another Trump adviser, who added that "Susie Wiles is the most powerful Trump appointee, and Stephen knows that and she's happy to let him do his thing."

President-elect Trump is leaving the rest of his GOP trifecta hanging on their reconciliation stalemate.

Why it matters: Republican leaders on both sides of the Capitol have no interest in going against Trump. He has the power to quickly end this debate, but that's no closer after Wednesday's meeting with the Senate GOP.

• Trump pitched the idea of a single "beautiful bill," Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) told reporters after the meeting. That's where the momentum is headed, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said.
• "[H]e heard from us that and from our leader that a two-bill strategy is very much still very interested in," Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) told reporters.

But Trump keeps making it clear: He really doesn't care about the process.

• That apparent indifference on this key question will force the House and Senate to attempt to resolve their differences among themselves.

Inside the room: Trump went over some of his early executive order plans, two sources in the room told Axios.

• Stephen Miller walked through the Day 1 immigration orders in detail, three sources told Axios. On his list is reimplementing Title 42, the pandemic-era rule that allows for the rapid expulsion of migrants at the border.
• About a dozen senators spoke during the meeting, with Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) giving the most passionate defense of the two-bill strategy, two sources told Axios.
• Trump invited the senators and their spouses to Mar-a-Lago, but didn't name a date, two sources told us. Axios scooped his plans for a Senate bash last night.

The bottom line: If the one bill versus two question is hard, agreeing to a topline number should be a real treat.

P.S. Top Trump campaign staffer Alex Latcham will be executive director of the Senate Leadership Fund, with former Sen. Cory Gardner serving as CEO and chairman of the board, Axios scooped on Wednesday.

President-elect Trump is preparing to invite the entire Senate Republican conference to Mar-a-Lago for a mega-MAGA party in the coming weeks, people familiar with the matter tell Axios.

Why it matters: Trump is keen to celebrate a victory he sees as historic and fete the senators who helped him achieve it. He also wants to build trust with the lawmakers he needs to pass his sweeping legislative agenda.

• "Mar-a-Lago is special to the president. He's at ease there. Everyone is," a Trump adviser told Axios.
• "So it's a good place to get everyone together outside of Washington. It's team bonding. Trump is very much the player-coach."

Driving the news: Final details have not been locked down, but the big bash could come before Trump's inauguration.

• It will serve as an informal and more fun follow-up to his meeting Wednesday evening with GOP senators at their weekly policy get-together.
• Trump is also hosting governors at Mar-a-Lago on Thursday night, Politico reported.
• Also this week, Trump will welcome three House groups to his Florida club. There'll be separate meetings scheduled for the Freedom Caucus, committee chairs and the so-called SALT lawmakers from high-tax blue states.

Zoom out: Trump likes to play the role of DJ at his Palm Beach club, but the background music will likely be dominated by the same talk that has consumed D.C. these last few weeks.

• Republicans are in a heated internal conversation on whether to use one — or two — legislative vehicles to implement Trump's immigration and tax reform policies.

Trump isn't entirely indifferent, but he's indicated he can live with either approach.

• "I like one, big, beautiful bill," Trump said at a press conference on Tuesday. "But if two is more certain, it does go a little bit quicker because you can do the immigration stuff early."
• "I can live either way," he added.

Zoom in: This winter, Mar-a-Lago has been the warm-weather retreat for Trump's court — once in exile, but now preparing to return to power. (Mar-a-Lago was dubbed the "Winter White House" long before Trump bought it).

• Government leaders and high-profile executives have all visited Trump in Palm Beach, both to pay their respects, but also to understand Trump's intentions and shape his views.

President-elect Trump is set to visit Senate Republicans on Wednesday — after publicly siding with House Speaker Mike Johnson over how to pass major policy wins.

Why it matters: The new GOP trifecta needs to get on the same page before the much harder decisions come due.

• Some Senate Republicans want to convince Trump that it's in his interest to divide his "one big, beautiful bill" into two separate packages.
• Trump has backed one strategy and then the other — he just wants to get it all done. In a Hugh Hewitt interview on Monday, Trump indicated he would be fine with two bills too.

Between the lines: Wednesday's Senate GOP invite is a standing offer, we're told.

• Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) will host Trump at the upcoming meeting as policy chair and has made it clear he's welcome whenever he wants to come, according to a source familiar.
• Trump is expected to join the Senate GOP at its 6pm ET meeting. He'll be in town for the late President Jimmy Carter's funeral.

Zoom out: Some Republicans are agnostic on whether they should cram all their priorities into one massive package or move first on a border and deportation bill and then turn to tax legislation.

• Many are privately concerned that attempting to fit everything into one bill will condemn it to failure.

Zoom in: Johnson, fresh off his squeaker of a speaker's victory, knows math isn't his friend when he's looking for 218 votes.

• He is convinced he needs to wrap all of Trump's priorities — from ending taxes on tips to increasing border funding — into one massive bill and then convince his colleagues to all hold hands together, listen to Trump … and jump.
• Trump will host a series of House Republicans at Mar-a-Lago later this week, including members of the Freedom Caucus, people pushing to restore the SALT deduction and various committee chairs.

What they're saying: Two of Trump's most frequent phone buddies — Sens. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) and Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) — said nothing's set in stone.

• "If we can get both of them done in one package, great, if we got to split them up, great," Mullin said. "All I'm saying is that I know that his Senate can deliver.
• "I had multiple conversations with the president. He just wants it. He just wants the legislation to become permanent."
• "Whatever they think they can do over there [in the House] is what we need to do," Tuberville told us. "I think it could still go either way."

The bottom line: Senate GOP leader John Thune tried to downplay the differing ideas, telling Punchbowl News the split over strategy is less important than the substance of what gets passed.

• But Trump and his Hill leaders have been clear they intend to move fast. A divide over mechanics could slow things down.
• The historically slim margins in the House could mean that Thune defers to Johnson based on what can pass the chamber.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) relied on an unclear, unrealistic and unenforceable promise on the debt ceiling to convince President-elect Trump and House conservatives to keep the government open.

• It worked.

Why it matters: Trump killed Johnson's Plan A because it didn't include anything on the debt ceiling.

• Democrats and 38 Republicans killed Johnson's Plan B because it did.
• Don't ask about Plan C: It lived a short, unhappy life, mostly confined to X.
• Johnson's Plan D survived because Republicans pretended the debt ceiling was in the agreement and Democrats know that it's not.

The Senate is poised to pass the bill as soon as Friday night after it overwhelmingly cleared the House, 366 to 34, in the evening. More Democrats (196) voted for it than Republicans (170); all the no votes came from GOP House members. One Democrat voted present.

Zoom in: In the end, the bill that carried bipartisan votes was the obvious one that had been staring at leadership for weeks.

• The government will be funded for three months.
• The White House and Democrats avoid a shutdown in Biden's waning days. They also finally get the $100 billion in emergency spending they have pursued for months.
• Republicans can claim $10 billion in economic assistance for farmers.

Between the lines: Trump officials have been quietly contemplating a deal on the debt ceiling for weeks, but they apparently only sprang it on Johnson in the last 48 hours. That doomed an agreement that was already on shaky ground.

Inside the GOP conference, there are broadly two views on the debt ceiling.

• Some Trump loyalists see the debt ceiling as a ticking time bomb, set to detonate in the middle of Trump's first year. The smartest thing to do, they say, is to defuse it now.
• But GOP hardliners think of the debt ceiling as a grenade that they hold. The pin is pulled. Don't make them drop it with more unfunded spending.
• The promise Johnson made gives the hardliners, in theory, what they want: $2.5 trillion in deficit reduction on mandatory spending for a $1.5 trillion increase in the debt limit.

Reality check: Privately, conservatives admit that ratio is too good to be true.

• Under current policy, the deficit is expected to come in at $1.9 trillion for fiscal year 2025, meaning Congress will need that $1.5 trillion pretty quickly.
• Extending Trump's tax cuts is expected to cost another $4 trillion over 10 years.
• Then consider the Trump-Vance campaign promise for tip earners, Social Security recipients and families, which will cost trillions more.

The bottom line: That will make extending Trump's tax cuts, not to mention legislating any new ones, very difficult to achieve if Trump and congressional Republicans are serious about cutting deficit spending.

• It also puts enormous pressure on Elon Musk to find some massive savings in mandatory spending programs, like Medicare and Social Security, that Trump has promised not to touch.

There's only one upside after Thursday night's spectacular failure for House Speaker Mike Johnson, President-elect Trump and Elon Musk: They now have a long list of Republicans who dared to defy them.

Why it matters: Johnson is learning what a co-speakership with Trump — and to an extent, Musk — will look like.

• It's obvious Trump can kill a bill.
• It's less clear whether Trump or Musk can get legislation across the finish line by publicly browbeating GOP lawmakers.

🗳 Johnson lost 38 Republican votes and gained just two Democratic ones on a Trump-endorsed plan to fund the government for three months and suspend the debt ceiling for two years.

• The final 174-235 tally is a disaster for leadership's Plan B.
• Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) said Thursday they won't try their luck with the House Rules Committee on a party-line vote.

Now comes Plan C — yet to be named — after Republicans wasted a day negotiating with themselves.

• The hard talks with House and Senate Democrats have yet to happen and the government shuts down in just over 24 hours.

Zoom in: Trump is sparking a confrontation with his closest allies in Congress, with Johnson caught in the middle.

• Freedom Caucus members are both MAGA meat-eaters and big-time opponents of raising the debt ceiling.
• Now their president-elect is asking for a blank check and threatening primaries for any holdouts.
• He called for a primary challenge to Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), who responded by calling the Trump-blessed bill "embarrassing" and "shameful." Roy voted no on the bill.

Other GOP "no" votes were a Freedom Caucus who's who:

• It includes Andy Ogles and Tim Burchett of Tennessee; Ralph Norman of South Carolina; Bob Good of Virginia; Rich McCormick of Georgia; and Andy Biggs and Paul Gosar of Arizona.

The bottom line: The rough reality for Johnson is that he needs Democratic votes to advance legislation — and Republican votes to remain speaker.

• On Thursday he realized how short he may be on both.

Negotiations over a short-term spending bill turned out to be more painful and prolonged than leaders in either party expected.

Why it matters: Agreeing to a three-month bill should not be this hard.

• The fact that it was might mean that next year's big legislative fights – from tax reform to funding the government – will be even more difficult.

Driving the news: The text of the 1,547-page bill was finally posted after 6pm ET.

• All day, rank and file Republicans — and even committee chairs — grumbled about the process -- and the policy. This bill is not popular with House Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-La.) right flank.

Zoom out: Johnson allies are trying to claim victory. They have an agreement to fund the government through March 14, just like they promised back in September.

• And it wasn't a dreaded omnibus – anathema to the House conservatives whose votes Johnson will need in just 17 days to remain speaker.
• But it included a host of unrelated provisions, touching on football, Haiti, and China
• That made the back and forth feel more like an omnibus negotiation, even if the underlying legislation was technically a three-month bill.

WINNERS

• Farmers: Johnson can point to $10 billion in economic assistance for farmers and the inclusion of outbound investment restrictions on China.
• Storm-victims: There's an additional $100 billion in disaster relief in various pots of money. None of it is offset.
• Haiti: Democrats won on getting a trade provision extended for duty-free imports on textiles and apparel from Haiti.
• The Commanders and owner Josh Harris: Don't buy a corporate box at RFK just yet. The Commanders still need to ink a stadium deal with the city, but it's looking good for a potential RFK kickoff as early as 2030.
• Maryland: Yes, they may be losing their football team, but the state got 100% authorization for the Francis Scott Key Bridge. The Federal government will retain the rights to any windfalls from lawsuits.

LOSERS:

• Maryland: They may have lost their football team.
• Africa: Legislation to extend the African Growth and Opportunity Act was not included. That's also a blow to President Biden and his administration.
• Pharmacy Benefit Managers: They lost big on a provision to redirect spending on prescription drugs to health plans and pharmaceutical companies. It could get worse for them. Trump referred to PMB's as "middlemen" in his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Monday.

The bottom line: Congress will undertake a similar exercise in early March to fund the government for another six months. Republicans will control the Senate, but their margins will be tighter in the House.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is launching a preemptive strike against the isolationists in his own party, warning of the "price of American retreat" in a new essay for Foreign Affairs.

Why it matters: McConnell is putting Trump — and the entire Republican party — on notice that he plans to be an active combatant in the looming GOP civil war on foreign policy.

• "America will not be made great again by those who simply want to manage its decline," McConnell writes in a 5,000-word piece posted this morning.
• "Trump would be wise to build his foreign policy on the enduring cornerstone of U.S. leadership: hard power."

The big picture: McConnell has said he will feel "liberated" once he leaves leadership to criticize Democrats and Republicans alike. As the chair of the Defense appropriations subcommittee, he'll have a powerful perch to advance his agenda.

• But his essay is full of appeals to Trump, who he once called "stupid" and "despicable." McConnell, a master negotiator, is leaving plenty of room for a productive relationship with the next president.
• He is also unsparing in his criticism of the last two Democratic presidents.
• "Donald Trump will inherit a world far more hostile to U.S. interests than the one he left behind four years ago," he writes. "But the response to four years of weakness must not be four years of isolation."

Driving the news: Congressional support for Ukraine will likely emerge as the first flashpoint between "American First" isolationists and more traditional Republican hawks.

• Trump, who met with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris last weekend, wants to broker a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia.
• He used the recent ouster of Syria's President Bashar al-Assad to argue that the time is right for both sides to "make a deal and stop the madness."
• McConnell has been a staunch supporter of sending aid and munitions to Ukraine and was critical in helping to pass a $60 billion package in April.
• The legislation passed, but with only 22 Republican senators supporting it, a minority in the party. "I sort of felt like I was the only Reagan Republican left," he said at the time.

Zoom out: As the longest-serving Senate leader in history, McConnell has long been a champion of the kind of muscular interventionism that defined the Republican party during the Cold War and the post-9/11 aftermath.

• He supported the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and then the 2007 troop "surge" pushed by then-President Bush to defeat an Iraqi insurgency that was inflicting heavy casualties on U.S. troops.
• He has long been a hawk on China, as well as a reliable voice in support of Taiwan. He backed then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi on her visit to Taiwan, in defiance of China's disapproval.
• More recently, he's been deeply critical of his Republican colleagues for supporting Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

Zoom in: With the Foreign Affairs article, McConnell appears to be writing with an eye on future fights in addition to his own legacy — and is clearly concerned about the number of threats America faces.

• "Standing up to China will require Trump to reject the myopic advice that he prioritize that challenge by abandoning Ukraine," he writes.

The bottom line: He reserves some of his harshest criticism for Democrats in an attempt to convince Trump that isolationism can have consequences.

• "In the Middle East, Obama's premature withdrawal from Iraq left a vacuum for Iran and the Islamic State," he writes.

House progressives are ready to go back on the offensive and to protect their fellow members after tough primary losses this year.

Why it matters: For the first time since The Squad burst onto the congressional scene six years ago, their ranks will be thinner in the next Congress.

• That's mostly due to the primary losses of Reps. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) and Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.), bringing their number from nine to seven.

🎯 One target: Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the outgoing chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, blames super PAC money for Bush's and Bowman's losses.

• "The dark money in primaries stops us from electing true working-class candidates who are going to challenge corporate power," she told Axios at an Axios News Shapers event on Thursday.

Zoom in: The Squad's most prominent member — Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) — is locked in a heated race for power next week.

• AOC was endorsed Friday for ranking member on House Oversight by her Congressional Progressive Caucus allies. That was quickly followed by an endorsement from the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.
• She's battling against allies of House Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who's been making calls on her opponent's Rep. Gerry Connolly's (D-Va.) behalf.
• Connolly was endorsed Friday by the center-left New Democrat Coalition.

Zoom out: The Israel-Hamas war put the pro-Palestinian lawmakers on defense, and in the case of Bowman and Bush, the Gaza war combined with additional scandals proved too much to withstand.

• "Democrats will try to run to the right, will try to run to the center and be Republican light," Jayapal told Axios.
• "Let's be real, most people don't like the light version of anything. They'd rather have the real version of the thing."
• "We need a very clear contrast between Republicans and Democrats."

Sens. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) delivered their potentially final rebuke to outgoing Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) today, surprising him with two "no" votes on a nomination that was deeply important to their old party.

Why it matters: Schumer is closing out the Biden presidency the same way he started it: Wondering if he can count on Manchin and Sinema.

• Both senators, in their own dramatic way, voted to defeat the nomination of Lauren McFarren for another term on the National Labor Relations Board.
• Sinema showed up for her first Senate vote since the Thanksgiving holiday and voted "no" on a procedural vote to kill McFarren's nomination.

With Manchin absent in the Senate, and the vote tied at 49-49, a potential tie-breaking vote from Vice President Harris was possible.

• But Manchin raced across town from a previous engagement to deliver the fatal blow, 50-49.

Zoom in: Schumer was under enormous pressure from progressive senators and labor groups to try to grandfather in Democratic control of the NLRB for the first two years of Trump's presidency.

• With Senate Republicans struggling with absenteeism, Democrats thought they had a shot.
• Leading up to the vote, it was a mystery among many Democratic senators how Manchin and Sinema would vote.

What they are saying: Manchin, who had kept all of Washington guessing on his position, claimed it wasn't even a close call.

• "This is not a surprise to anyone," he said after voting, citing McFarren's position on a new joint employer rule. "It's not personal."

In a statement shortly after the vote, Schumer didn't hide his anger.

• "It is deeply disappointing, a direct attack on working people, and incredibly troubling that this highly qualified nominee — with a proven track record of protecting worker rights — did not have the votes," Schumer said.

The other side: Republicans had nearly perfect attendance, with only Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), who had a planned orthopedic surgery, missing the vote. GOP leaders were aware of his expected absence, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Zoom out: For the last four years, Manchin and Sinema have aggravated both President Biden and the Democratic Party they used to call home.

• In the summer of 2021, Manchin took a chainsaw to Biden's $3.5 trillion Build Back Better agenda and articulated his own redlines. He knocked out key provisions — like extending the Child Tax Credit — and then ultimately killed it.
• He later revived a much smaller package. Then Sinema decided to raise her concerns.
• She fought against some of the corporate tax increases, as well as a plan to target so-called carried interest.
• The two of them also helped to sink previous Biden nominations, including Julie Sue for labor secretary and Saule Omarova for the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

The bottom line: Yes, they tend to vote with Schumer on judges, but Democrats they are clearly not.

• Sinema formally left the Democratic Party in late 2022. Manchin did the same in March of this year.

Sen. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is telling colleagues that negotiations to allow the Washington Commanders to return to the RFK Stadium site are making progress — and a deal could be included in the short-term spending bill, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Schumer still wants Maryland, the NFL and the Commanders to reach an agreement that satisfies all parties. It's not clear that they have done so.

• But Schumer's indication he might attach the House-passed legislation to the spending bill opens up a massive hole for the Commanders — and fans of returning football to the nation's capital — to run through this year. The team currently plays about five miles from D.C., at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland.

Driving the news: The Commanders want the option of building a new stadium at RFK and have worked to reach an agreement.

• Schumer has been speaking directly with N.F.L. Commissioner Roger Goodell, Commanders owner Josh Harris and the Maryland senators for status reports on the negotiations, according to people familiar with the matter.
• If a deal is reached, Schumer would support including it in the short-term spending bill, according to people familiar with the matter.

Zoom out: If Congress passes legislation for a redevelopment bill this year, the city and the Washington Commanders can consider a massive new sports and entertainment district, with a potential football stadium on the 190-acre site.

• The city of D.C. is broadly supportive. Mayor Muriel Bowser said last month a redevelopment would bring "affordable housing, world-class recreational facilities, green spaces and economic opportunity for District residents and visitors alike."

The bottom line: Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) had been holding up the House legislation since May, but he's indicated he's no longer opposed, according to people familiar with the matter.

• Maryland's political leaders have brought their own demands to the negotiations, according to the Washington Post.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is mounting a last-ditch fight to keep the National Labor Relations Board under Democratic control for the next two years under President-elect Trump.

Why it matters: For big labor and big business, the NLRB is crucially important.

• It has broad discretion to referee disputes between employers of workers across the economy, from Amazon to Starbucks.
• Democrats have an opportunity to lock in a 3-2 majority, but only if they can find 50 votes to extend Lauren McFerran's tenure.
• Schumer filed cloture on Monday on another five-year term for McFerran, setting up a procedural vote on Wednesday.

Schumer has two paths to win confirmation:

• He'll need GOP absences or defections, or assurances from either Sens. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) or Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) that their concerns about the NLRB have been addressed. Those two haven't indicated how they'll vote.

Driving the news: Senate Democrats and independent Sen. Bernie Sanders —have privately pressed Schumer to ensure a Democratic majority until August 2026, when vacancies will give Republicans a shot to have their own 3-2 advantage.

• With two weeks left in session, time is running out, raising concerns in the labor movement that the vote isn't a top priority for Schumer.
• Without reconfirmation, the board will likely tip in favor of Republicans early next year when Trump starts filling open seats after his inauguration. McFerran's term expires next week.

What we're watching: No one seems to know if Manchin is still as angry with the NLRB when he voted against the last Democratic nominee in September 2023.

• But his staff isn't giving Schumer any reason to be optimistic.
• In that 2023 vote, Democrat Gwynne Wilcox relied on the votes of the two Alaska senators, Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan, to win confirmation.
• Another x-factor is Sinema's attendance. She didn't vote last week.

The bottom line: Schumer has been focusing on confirming federal judges to lifetime positions before Democrats hand over the majority to Republicans next year.

• While judges wear their robes for life, there are nearly 1,500 of them.
• There are five seats on the NLRB.

White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients is asking his team to "sprint to the finish line" to cement the president's legacy, reshape the federal judiciary and spend all the money they possibly can in their final 42 days in office.

Why it matters: President Biden and Zients want to ensure a smooth transition to President-elect Trump's second term, but they also want to lock in any policy changes allowed by law.

• That includes obligating funds in Biden's four signature pieces of legislation: The American Rescue Plan, The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act.

Driving the news: With many White House officials hunting for jobs, Zients is essentially giving them a pep talk, reminding them of their accomplishments — but also that there's more important work to do.

• "Under the President's and the Vice President's leadership, this team got more done in one term than most presidencies get done in two," Zients wrote in a memo obtained by Axios.
• "Expect more action on high-speed internet funds to states, CHIPS incentives funding, IRA funding, and more," Zients wrote.

The intrigue: Zients also previewed new action on artificial intelligence, hinting at "announcements to come on everything from climate to conservation to AI and more."

• Along with Deputy Chief of Staff Bruce Reed, Zients has taken a special interest in AI policy, and worked to convince private companies to sign public pledges on how they will use the technology.

Zoom out: Biden passed the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan in the opening weeks of his presidency to help ensure that the economy continued to grow during the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Republicans claimed that it was too expensive and today some economists blame it for stoking inflation. But inside the White House it is still largely celebrated.
• Biden also signed a bipartisan infrastructure law, which authorized more than $1 trillion in spending, the $52 million CHIPS and Science Act, as his climate and health care law. It was a pared down version of his initial $3.5 trillion Build Back Better proposal.
• That final piece of legislation will end up costing some $1.2 trillion, much higher than the initial price tag, in part because of the popularity of some of its tax credits.

What's next: The White House has several concrete goals for the next six weeks.

• In addition to getting money out the door on his domestic agenda, officials are focused on working with the Senate to confirm judges – and break Trump's record for the total number of appointments.
• On the foreign policy front, officials are still working to achieve a ceasefire in the war in Gaza and to keep supporting Ukraine.

President Biden's pardon of his son Hunter ignited a debate over whether Biden was abusing his power for personal reasons, but he'll have to issue well over 100 more in his last few weeks in office to come close to his predecessors' totals.

Why it matters: The final days of a presidency are the season of pardons, as presidents seek to right what they see as judicial wrongs before they leave D.C. And after Biden's controversial pardon of his son, he's facing enormous pressure to flex his clemency muscle.

By the numbers: Biden actually has been reluctant to show mercy — handing out just 26 pardons and commuting 135 criminal sentences since he took office in January 2021. He's granted just 1.2% of the requests he's received, according to data from the Justice Department's Office of the Pardon Attorney.

• President-elect Trump — who had fewer acts of clemency than his recent predecessors during his first term — had granted 29 pardons at this point in 2020.
• But in the final weeks as the nation's 45th president, Trump nearly quintupled his number of pardons, ending with a total of 144.

What they're saying: White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said this week that Biden — now being deluged with requests — is "thinking through that process [of end-of-year clemency announcements] very thoroughly."

• "I''m not going to get ahead of the president on this, but you could expect more ... pardons and clemency at the end of this term," she said.

Zoom in: Barack Obama, who had the most clemency grants of any president since Harry Truman, ended his two terms with 212 pardons and a whopping 1,715 commutations, far more than any recent president.

• The bulk of Obama's commutations cleared sentences for prisoners who had been convicted of drug charges.

Between the lines: Biden's decision to pardon his son drew outrage from Republicans and some Democrats who criticized the president for reneging on his promise not to pardon his son on gun and drug charges.

• But Biden is hardly the first president to grant a controversial, 11th-hour pardon family member or friend.
• On Bill Clinton's last day in office in 2001, he pardoned his half-brother, Roger Clinton Jr. — whose Secret Service code name was "Headache" — for his 1985 convictions on cocaine possession and drug trafficking. Roger Clinton was among 176 people pardoned that day.
• In 1974, Gerald Ford granted a "full, free and absolute pardon" to former President Nixon in an attempt to help the nation move on from the Watergate scandal that had led Nixon to resign.
• Ford paid a political price two years later when he lost the presidential election to Democrat Jimmy Carter, who campaigned on a promise to never lie to the American people.

Trump notoriously used his clemency power for people to whom he had personal or political ties. Weeks after he lost the 2020 presidential election, Trump pardoned Roger Stone, Paul Manafort and Charles Kushner, among others.

• Manafort was a former Trump campaign manager who'd been sentenced to seven years in prison for bank and tax fraud and other crimes. Stone, a GOP operative and Trump loyalist, had been convicted of lying to Congress in the federal probe into Russia's interference in the 2016 election.
• Kushner, Ivanka Trump's father-in-law, was pardoned after serving two years in prison for tax evasion and retaliating against a federal witness. Trump now has nominated Kushner, a fellow billionaire, to be the U.S. ambassador to France.

The intrigue: Biden's White House is considering giving preemptive pardons to officials who could be targets for prosecution by the incoming Trump administration, Politico's Jonathan Martin reported.

• Trump repeatedly has vowed to use the government to retaliate against his political enemies.

Go deeper: Congress hands Biden a huge Hunter-driven pardon wishlist

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries' (D-N.Y.) path to the speakership will run through President-elect Trump's home turf.

Why it matters: The strategy (and math) are pretty basic for Jeffries, who needs to pick up just three seats in the next midterms to win the majority.

• Return all 13 Democrats who won in what appear to be Trump districts.
• Then pick off three of the four GOP lawmakers who won in what appear to be Harris districts.
• Redistricting has shrunk the number of House districts that are truly competitive. That's making those races nasty, brutish and anything but short.

Zoom out: For a leader who wants to seize his party's resistance mantle, the existence of 13 Democrats in Trump districts will make his job harder. Jeffries, like Pelosi before him, knows a unified caucus will make him a more powerful force.

• With Republicans sitting on a three-seat cushion (which will be zero for several months), Jeffries can drive a hard bargain on everything from funding the government to raising the debt ceiling.
• If he maintains strict party discipline, he has the opportunity to embarrass Johnson on nearly every vote for the next two years.
• But Jeffries will have to choose his battles wisely and determine when to give those 13 Democrats a pass on tough votes. Sometimes, members will have to vote their districts at the expense of party unity.

By the numbers: November's elections showed both parties it's possible, but expensive, to beat entrenched incumbents.

• Democrats took out seven of the 16 GOP incumbents in Biden districts.
• Republicans took out two of the five Democratic incumbents in Trump districts.
• The challenge for Democrats in 2026 is that the four Republicans that now represent Harris districts are proven survivors. Still, Democrats think they'll be more vulnerable to drive out when Trump isn't on the ticket.

The intrigue: For Democrats, the 2026 map is almost a reverse image of the 2024 one, when Speaker Mike Johnson had to defend incumbents in 16 Biden seats with only five Democratic targets in Trump districts.

• Turnout in midterms varies significantly from a presidential cycle, a phenomenon that's been particularly pronounced in the Trump era.
• That means districts that looked Trumpy in 2024 might be more purple in the midterms.
• And there's always a chance the parties can draw more favorable seats via redistricting, like Republicans did in North Carolina.

What they're saying: "In a difficult national political environment, House Democrats defied political gravity, returned the overwhelming majority of our battleground incumbents, flipped 10 GOP-held seats this year and eradicated any extreme MAGA Republican hope of a so-called overwhelming mandate," said Justin Chermol, spokesperson for Jeffries.

• "In the new Congress, we will hold the narrow Republican majority accountable for any instance of overreach and self-dealing that undermines working-class Americans."