Risk experts believe the insured losses from the Los Angeles wildfires will easily top $20 billion, but in some ways that's only the start of the crisis California now faces.

Why it matters: Anything above $12.5 billion would pass 2018's Camp Fire to become the biggest insured wildfire loss ever, per data from insurance brokers Aon. Economic losses will be substantially higher, perhaps tens of billions of dollars more.

• Stunning stat: At the high end of the range, the L.A. fires would be near the list of the 10 costliest natural disasters in global history by inflation-adjusted insured loss, per data from the Insurance Information Institute.

The big picture: The loss number in and of itself is staggering, but only tells a small portion of the story.

• Thousands upon thousands of homes and businesses have been lost, and tough decisions about if and how to rebuild will take years, even as climate change makes this sort of disaster more likely.
• California's insurance market was already struggling as carriers fled the state's many risks. As a result the state insurer of last resort, FAIR Plan, has ballooned to an unsustainable size.
• Systematic reforms designed to expand coverage and let insurers re-price risk are just now coming online, but may be too little, too late, given the scope of losses at play.

What they're saying: "A $20 billion to $30 billion, insured loss event is now on the table," says Jon Schneyer, research director at analytics firm CoreLogic.

• Risk assessment firm Verisk said late Thursday the insured property at risk in just the Palisades area is at least $15 billion — not a loss estimate, but a clear sense of what's at stake.

Zoom in: "It's going to be a challenge to the affordability and availability of insurance," says Sridhar Manyem, senior director of industry research at insurance ratings agency A.M. Best.

• Ironically, homeowners' insurance premiums in big California cities are much lower than the rest of the country on a cost-per-$1,000-of-coverage basis, per an Oct. 2024 ICE Mortgage Monitor report.
• But if the houses are more expensive, the premium ends up being higher anyway — and in the Pacific Palisades, the median house is worth $3.5 million.
• "That is a demographically well-off area. When their only alternative is to get the FAIR Plan, you have to wonder what happens to people who don't have the same resources," says Michelle Meyers, an insurance litigator with Singleton Schreiber in Sacramento.

What's next: The immediate question will be what happens to FAIR Plan, which is not built to handle billions of dollars of simultaneous losses.

• It's a last resort, but an increasingly important last resort after so many insurers left the state. The state's reforms were designed to keep more from leaving, but the risk may overwhelm those reforms.
• "I don't have a lot of faith that a good amount of what's in the sustainable insurance plan really incentivizes carriers to really want to write in the state," says Lindsey Frase, managing director at reinsurance brokers Howden Re. "I suspect there may need to be an intervening step where there is some support form the state government to weather this storm."

What to watch: Experts say the L.A. fires will also reopen conversations about mitigation — because while insurance may be a first line of recovery, steps like clearing brush and hardening roofs are still the first line of defense.

• "If you can prevent that first home from picking up an ember and catching fire, it's like a natural fire break," CoreLogic's Schneyer says.

The bottom line: The fires are still burning, but the end of their impact isn't days away — it's years or more down the road.

The devastating wildfires raging through Los Angeles are re-opening the debate about how to model and manage risk for the insurance industry, as climate change makes such destruction more inevitable.

Why it matters: California's insurance market is in the middle of major reforms to deal with the cost of fire, but they may not be fast enough given the billions of dollars at stake.

• Some market experts warn the state may need to consider becoming a primary insurer for fire risk — much as it already did with earthquakes and Florida did with hurricanes.

The big picture: Climate change has made California vastly more susceptible to wildfires — previously in summer, now no matter the season.

• That growing risk has made insurers wary of covering the state, and led many to pull out of the market altogether.
• California FAIR Plan, the state's insurer of last resort for fire risk, is soaking up that demand — protecting homeowners, but squeezing other insurers and weakening its own financial condition.
• "When the FAIR Plan takes on more customers, it causes traditional insurance companies to withdraw from certain areas, further increasing dependence on the FAIR Plan. This cycle can ultimately weaken the FAIR Plan's financial stability and limit consumer choice," state insurance commissioner Ricardo Lara wrote in a Sept. 2024 bulletin.

By the numbers: As of Sept. 2024, FAIR Plan's exposure to residential fire risk was $431.45 billion, up almost 60% from the year before.

• The number of policies in force rose 123% in four years, the agency says.
• One of the biggest risk areas in the state is the currently burning Pacific Palisades, with $5.89 billion in exposure due in large part to high property values.
• FAIR Plan does have a mechanism to share its burden with insurers in the state if its solvency is at risk, but insurers now have the ability to pass those assessment costs onto their customers.

Between the lines: The California Department of Insurance (CDI) moved in recent years to implement a "Sustainable Insurance Strategy," changes that traded more flexibility for insurers for more coverage of at-risk areas.

• Lara issued new regulations letting insurers pass along some of their reinsurance costs to their customers, and letting them use "catastrophe modeling" to project possible future losses instead of simply relying on historical data.
• Those changes were controversial, as opponents said they would cause rates to rise faster than coverage would expand.
• The Insurance Information Institute, a clearinghouse for the industry, says the regulations are having a positive effect, prompting more insurers to write more coverage.
• This week's fires may have complicated matters, though.

What they're saying: "I think that California is being progressive in a lot of ways in the insurance market," says Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications research at risk modeling firm First Street.

• "The downside of that is, there's a correction that has to be made. There's what I call a climate debt," Porter says. "All of those fees, all of those insurance premiums, they're all going to adjust upward as we talk about risk."
• In other words, Californians have to accept they're going to pay more if the risk of fires is modeled properly and insured in a sound manner.

What's next: It's far too soon to say what kind of losses this week's fires will generate, for FAIR Plan or the industry. But the evident damage is enough to get people thinking about outcomes.

• "Things could still break for the positive, but it is seeming more likely that the losses from tonight's fires could push insurance markets over the brink in California — despite all the good work CDI and stakeholders have done over the past few years to stabilize the situation," Michael Wara, a senior research scholar at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, posted on X.
• "I am beginning to think that we need to be having a much bigger conversation about the structure and assumptions that underlie this rate regulated industry. The current model may just not be sustainable," Wara wrote, pointing to the difficulties in Florida, which has a strained state-run insurer for hurricanes.

Shares in the ultra-hot quantum computing sector plunged on Wednesday after Nvidia's CEO said useful quantum computers were decades away.

Why it matters: Quantum computing stocks have been on a ferocious run, with some names rising almost 20x in the last year.

Driving the news: Nvidia held a Q&A with Wall Street analysts on Tuesday, during which CEO Jensen Huang was asked about the growth path for the still-nascent technology.

• "And so if you kind of said 15 years for very useful quantum computers, that'd probably be on the early side. If you said 30 is probably on the late side. But if you picked 20, I think a whole bunch of us would believe it," Huang said.
• Nvidia's dominance in AI computing gives Huang's technology forecasts outsized impact — and his comments tend to move stocks.

By the numbers: Shares in Rigetti Computing plunged 46% in early trading Wednesday. Before that collapse, the stock had risen more than 1,800% in just one year.

• Shares in Quantum Computing Inc. also fell 45%, while shares in IonQ dropped more than 42%.
• Together, the losses exceeded $4 billion in market capitalization.

Context: Quantum computing is bleeding-edge stuff, applying the principles of quantum mechanics to perform computing tasks far too difficult for traditional computing.

• As MIT scientists describe it, traditional binary computers use electrical signals that can be either 0 or 1. Quantum computing uses subatomic particles that can be both simultaneously. It sounds like a small difference but the power is exponential.
• Google said last year its new quantum computing chip, code named Willow, did computations in five minutes that would take today's supercomputers 10 septillion years.
• But as Google itself points out, Willow's achievement is little more than a "convincing prototype" that offers a "strong sign" quantum systems can be built at scale.

Editor's note: This report has been updated with early Wednesday trading levels for stocks.

It was a good year for AI-linked companies in 2024, as they led the stock market with eye-watering returns.

• Execution problems plagued some well-known businesses, though, causing their shares to sink.

Why it matters: Those AI names helped the S&P 500 to its best two-year gain since the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s.

By the numbers: Nine S&P 500 stocks doubled in value (or more) this year, while four lost at least half their value.

• Three AI-linked stocks topped the list: Software company Palantir gained more than 340%; Vistra, a power producer that serves data centers, rose almost 260%; and chipmaker Nvidia gained more than 170%.
• If the bottom of the list has a theme, it's execution. Walgreens Boots Alliance (closing stores, heavily indebted, possibly for sale) lost more than 64% of its value. Intel (sinking AI market share, heavy layoffs) shed more than 60%, and Moderna (pulling back on new vaccines as COVID revenue tails off) dropped almost 60%.

Yes, but: Past performance does not guarantee future results.

• While AI names led the market this year, tech stocks have pulled back of late, with the Nasdaq down about 4% in just the last two weeks.
• The vast majority of the year's top gainers were down on the last trading day of 2024.

We know Elon Musk dominated the headlines in 2024, but the scale by which he overshadowed other CEOs is stunning.

Why it matters: It's a self-sustaining cycle — stories about Musk get clicks, and so publishers write more about Musk, who provides plenty of raw material.

• This year, however, the effect has become exponential.

By the numbers: Taboola, which powers advertising for thousands of websites, tracks views on news articles in its publisher network.

• Taboola's data, shared exclusively with Axios, shows Musk has outpaced his closest peers — Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg — for years, but the gap widened dramatically in 2024.
• Articles about Musk had 1.03 billion page views from Jan. 1 to Nov. 12 this year, up 120% from 2023 and 528% from 2022.
• Other CEOs are getting written about more, too, but their rates of annual growth (e.g. 85% for Bezos and 44% for Zuckerberg) don't come close.
• This year, traffic on Musk stories is almost 3x the total traffic on stories about the next nine most-read-about CEOs combined, per the Taboola data.

The bottom line: Don't expect anything to change anytime soon, as Musk's personal megaphones get louder by the day.

Financial markets will be largely — but not entirely — closed for the National Day of Mourning for Jimmy Carter on Thursday, Jan. 9.

State of play: Markets typically close on such days, as they did in December 2018 for the funeral of President George H.W. Bush.

The big picture: Carter died Sunday at age 100, and President Biden declared a day of mourning, usually treated as a federal holiday, to mark his passing.

• Both the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq tell Axios they will close for the full day.
• SIFMA, the trade association for investment banks and asset managers, is recommending bond markets close early at 2pm ET, in line with a 2019 policy change. (In 2018 it recommended a full closure for Bush's funeral.)
• Banks might be closed. For Bush, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said banks could close offices in any state where the day had been declared a holiday.
• President Biden issued an executive order closing federal agencies and offices on Jan. 9 as well.

Go deeper: How Jimmy Carter rebuilt his reputation post-presidency

Editor's note: The story has been updated with government closure plans.

President-elect Trump backs H-1B visas, siding with Elon Musk after the tech billionaire pledged to go to "war" to defend the program and branded GOP opponents "hateful, unrepentant racists."

Why it matters: The MAGA-DOGE civil war that erupted over the last 48 hours has now come to a tipping point, with Trump's new techno-libertarian coalition of billionaires taking full aim at his traditional base.

• Trump's support for the controversial visas is the first sign of his picking sides between his richest and most powerful advisors on one hand, and the people who swept him to office on the other.

The latest: The president-elect told the New York Post on Saturday he has "always liked the visas."

• "I have many H-1B visas on my properties," he said of the program for highly-skilled, foreign workers. "I've been a believer in H-1B. I have used it many times. It's a great program."

Reality check: Trump pledged to end the program in 2016.

• "The H-1B program is neither high-skilled nor immigration: these are temporary foreign workers, imported from abroad, for the explicit purpose of substituting for American workers at lower pay," he said.
• He added he was "totally committed to eliminating rampant, widespread H-1B abuse."
• Late in Trump's first term, his administration moved to tighten rules around eligible jobs and wages, though the program largely remained intact otherwise.

Catch up quick: The MAGA-DOGE skirmishes started last Sunday, with anti-immigration and anti-Indian vitriol against Trump's pick of venture capitalist Sriram Krishnan as his AI advisor.

• It escalated into full conflict Thursday when Musk ally and DOGE co-lead Vivek Ramaswamy took to X to blast American "mediocrity" culture. Musk defended Ramaswamy, and the two sides started engaging in an increasingly bitter war of words.
• On Friday afternoon, Musk doubled down, saying MAGA adherents who continued to blast immigration and the tech community were "contemptible fools," later clarifying he was talking about "racists" who would "absolutely be the downfall of the Republican Party if they are not removed."

Zoom in: Just before midnight Friday, Musk once again defended the H-1B program in vulgar, all-caps terms, saying the program was the key to the success of his (and other big American) companies.

• "Take a big step back and F--K YOURSELF in the face. I will go to war on this issue the likes of which you cannot possibly comprehend," Musk wrote.
• In a separate post, he pledged to "fight to my last drop of blood" to keep America a meritocracy.

What they're saying: As with Musk's previous posts defending Ramaswamy and condemning his opponents, Trump supporters did not react well to Musk's promise to defend the H-1B program.

• "May God bless and protect President Trump from these people," outspoken right-wing commentator Laura Loomer wrote, after accusing Musk of trying to censor her.

The intrigue: Though Trump has been mostly quiet on the matter, those around him have started showing their hands.

• Michael Seifert, the CEO of online marketplace Public Square, whose board of directors includes Donald Trump Jr., took to social media Friday to say the H-1B program was "destroying the lives of American workers."
• Steve Bannon, one of the longest-tenured voices in Trump's orbit, had multiple guests on his show this week to talk about his hardline anti-H-1B views.
• Bannon tells Axios he helped kick off the debate with a now-viral Gettr post earlier this month calling out a lack of support for the Black and Hispanic communities in Big Tech.
• On Saturday Bannon called Musk a "toddler" in a Gettr post, and in another post accused him and Ramaswamy of attacking American workers, families and culture.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional statements and context.

Bankrupt retailer Big Lots said Friday it struck an 11th-hour deal to save hundreds of its stores via a sale to Gordon Brothers and Variety Wholesalers.

Why it matters: The Columbus, Ohio-based company had about 27,700 employees and more than 1,300 stores in 48 states when it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in September.

• Last Friday, the company said its restructuring plans had collapsed and it would have to liquidate all its stores.

Zoom out: Big Lots said Variety Wholesalers would take over somewhere between 200 and 400 locations, which will keep the Big Lots name; and up to two distribution centers.

• Variety operates chains including Roses, Maxway and Bargain Town.

Yes, but: The deal that saves stores gives no guarantee on jobs.

• In a statement, Big Lots said Variety "may" employ current associates at the saved facilities.
• The deal still has to be approved by the bankruptcy court.

Elon Musk condemned a segment of the MAGA movement as "contemptible fools" who should be purged from the Republican Party in a social media post Friday.

Why it matters: A virtual right-wing civil war has broken out over race, class, immigration and the future of President-elect Trump's movement, and Musk is increasingly at odds with Trump's historic base.

• The schism may force Trump to ultimately take sides between the largely white, working-class supporters who first made MAGA succeed, and the techno-libertarian billionaires like Musk who are at the center of his new administration.

Catch up quick: On Thursday, Musk ally and Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) co-leader Vivek Ramaswamy posted a lengthy condemnation of American culture and its supposed embrace of mediocrity.

• Musk spent the next 24 hours defending Ramaswamy and advancing his argument that America needs highly skilled immigrants to fill high-tech jobs.
• That argument landed with a thud in the MAGA wing that wants to stop immigration and preserve jobs for American workers.

Zoom in: On Friday, cartoonist and right-wing commentator Scott Adams posted on X that MAGA was "taking a page from Democrats on how to lose elections while feeling good about themselves."

• Musk agreed, and took it a step further.
• "And those contemptible fools must be removed from the Republican Party, root and stem," he posted.

What they're saying: For people used to being called "deplorables" by Democrats, the condemnation from one of the most important advisors in Trump's inner circle stoked instant outrage.

• "Calling people who have their country's best interests at heart and wanting to NOT sell out the American people 'contemptible fools' is the biggest L that I've seen Elon make in a long time. Dude needs to relax," gaming streamer Hooks posted.
• Right-wing activist Laura Loomer tagged Trump in her message. "The Trump base is being replaced by Big Tech executives. So sad to see this. I feel so sad for MAGA," she said. Loomer has alleged Musk was censoring her for her opposition to his immigration comments.
• Andrew Torba, the CEO of the far-right social network Gab, said in an X post: "He's declaring war on us btw. Should go over well for him as it has for everyone else who has tried."

Go deeper: MAGA vs. Musk: Right-wing critics allege censorship, loss of X badges

Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino on Thursday vehemently denied President-elect Trump's claims of Chinese interference in the Panama Canal.

Why it matters: Trump has accused Panamanian authorities of charging "exorbitant" shipping rates and cited the increasing dominance of China's government in trade throughout the Americas as a reason to take control of the Panama Canal, one of the world's most crucial pieces of infrastructure that the U.S. ceded in 1999.

Driving the news: The president-elect doubled down in a Christmas Day message, writing on Truth Social: "Merry Christmas to all, including to the wonderful soldiers of China, who are lovingly, but illegally, operating the Panama Canal."

What they're saying: "There is absolutely not any interference" from China or any other nation in the operation of the canal, Mulino said during a Thursday briefing, emphasizing that Panama is open for business equally to all interested parties.

• "If they're Chinese, if they're Costa Rican, if they're American, all are welcome who want to invest in the country. There is no discrimination here in foreign investment," he said.
• "There are no Chinese soldiers in the canal, for the love of God," added an animated Mulino, addressing Trump's post directly. "It's nonsense. There is not a single Chinese soldier in the canal."
• Representatives for Trump did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening.

Between the lines: China's government has in recent years heavily invested in operations in the Canal Zone, raising concerns about its neutrality.

• It's the primary source of products going through the Colón Free Trade Zone, a free port in Panama dedicated to re-exporting a variety of merchandise to Latin America and the Caribbean, noted the Center for Strategic and International Studies in 2021.
• Beijing's "increasing presence in and around the Canal has made the waterway a flashpoint for U.S.-China competition over spheres of influence," added the CSIS in the report.

Go deeper: Trump demands return of Panama Canal if rates aren't cut

Editor's note: This article has been updated with more context.

A MAGA-world civil war erupted over Christmas when a social media post on American culture turned into a pitched battle over race, immigration and billionaires versus the working class.

Why it matters: The fight exposes one of the MAGA movement's deepest contradictions: It came to prominence chiefly via the white, less-educated, working class but is now under the full control of billionaire technologists and industrialists, many of them immigrants.

• It also sets up a tense MAGA vs. DOGE moment that could infect the early stages of President-elect Trump's second presidency.
• While some want to make America great by restricting immigration and promoting the American worker, others want to cut costs and increase efficiency no matter who does the work.

Catch up quick: The skirmishes started Sunday when Trump named venture capitalist Sriram Krishnan as his adviser on AI policy.

• Krishnan's appointment triggered an anti-Indian backlash on social media, particularly given his past advocacy for lifting caps on green cards.

Vivek Ramaswamy escalated the conflict into a full-blown war Thursday morning with a post on X blaming an American culture that "venerated mediocrity over excellence" for the growth in foreign tech workers.

• "A culture that celebrates the prom queen over the math olympiad champ, or the jock over the valedictorian, will not produce the best engineers," Ramaswamy wrote, calling for a 1950s-style "Sputnik moment" to prioritize "nerdiness over conformity."
• "That's the work we have cut out for us, rather than wallowing in victimhood & just wishing (or legislating) alternative hiring practices into existence," he said.

Between the lines: Elon Musk's X is the town square for the MAGA movement, and by stepping into that square and firmly criticizing American culture — while praising the immigrant work ethic and parenting model — Ramaswamy threw down a gauntlet.

• Musk spent most of the afternoon trying to defend his DOGE co-leader and explain his argument, framing it as using immigration to supplement, rather than replace, American workers.
• "Maybe this is a helpful clarification: I am referring to bringing in via legal immigration the top ~0.1% of engineering talent as being essential for America to keep winning," Musk wrote.

The problem for many MAGA adherents, though, was accepting the very notion of immigrants telling them America needs more immigration to fill lucrative jobs in America.

• It revived old tensions around the H-1B visa, which is reserved for people who "perform services in a specialty obligation" but practically speaking has become a crucial tool of Silicon Valley's growth.
• In some recent years, as many as 75% of those petitioning for that visa came from India, from where Ramaswamy's parents immigrated.

What they're saying: "The Woodstock generation managed to build out aerospace, the one before went to the moon, America was doing great. Underlying your post is that we were all living in squalor until being rescued by H-1B's. Then why did everyone want to come here?" right-wing personality Mike Cernovich responded to Ramaswamy on X.

• "There is nothing wrong with American workers or American culture. All you have to do is look at the border and see how many want what we have. We should be investing and prioritizing in Americans, not foreign workers," Nikki Haley, the former GOP presidential candidate and herself a daughter of Indian immigrants, wrote.
• "I want the little guy to matter too. Not everyone has $1 million but they still love their country and want to MAGA and close the border," far-right activist Laura Loomer posted.
• Loomer posted a series of missives throughout the afternoon, calling out Ramaswamy, Musk and anyone else in Trump's orbit who isn't fully committed to closing the borders.

Zoom out: The fracture was familiar to anyone who's seen a movement expand — early adopters criticizing the latecomers for bringing different ideas.

• "Tech bros who took 8+ years to figure out that President Trump is not the bad guy and is in fact, the solution to America's problems, are really out here pontificating to MAGA patriots who figured it out a decade before them?" conservative streaming host Brenden Dilley posted on X.

The bottom line: For now the fight is mostly confined to X. But it's sure to raise difficult questions in the coming days about what Trump's administration will mean for immigration, labor and the American worker.

• It will also potentially settle a looming conflict over who has the most influence in Trump 2.0 — his historic base or his new-found techno-libertarian allies.

All American Airlines flights nationwide were halted for about an hour Tuesday morning after what the airline called a "technical issue."

Why it matters: The nationwide outage snarled early traffic on Christmas Eve for the world's largest carrier.

Catch up quick: The FAA issued a nationwide ground stop for all American flights at the airline's request as of 6:49 a.m. ET.

• It was cancelled at 7:50 a.m. ET.

What they're saying: "A vendor technology issue briefly affected flights this morning. That issue has been resolved and flights have resumed," the airline said in a statement.

• The issue "impacted systems needed to release flights," American added.
• Multiple passengers posted on X that their planes had been forced to return to gates, and in some cases all passengers had to get off.

Between the lines: Even a temporary morning pause can throw an airline's daily schedule into chaos.

• FlightAware showed just over 300 flight delays nationwide around 8 a.m. ET, mostly impacting East Coast airports like New York's John F. Kennedy International and Boston's Logan International Airport.
• By 6pm ET, nearly 650 flights had been delayed. However, this was mostly at Dallas Fort Worth International Airport, which experienced delays due to severe weather.
• Christmas Eve is one of the lightest air travel days of the holiday season, though nearly 2 million people flew on Dec. 24 last year, per the TSA.

The intrigue: On Monday, American touted its recent performance in a note to reporters, boasting it had more on-time departures than any competitor since the holiday season started.

Flashback: American isn't the only airline to have suffered holiday snafus.

• Southwest Airlines was fined $140 million and spent months rebuilding customers' trust after an extended Christmas week meltdown in 2022.

Editor's Note: This story has been updated with additional statements from American Airlines and more details from FlightAware.

President-elect Trump tapped Stephen Miran, an economist who served in his first administration, as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers.

Why it matters: This past summer, Miran co-authored a paper accusing the Biden administration of manipulating the economy ahead of the election.

Driving the news: Trump announced Miran's appointment in a Truth Social post Sunday morning.

• "Steve will work with the rest of my Economic Team to deliver a Great Economic Boom that lifts up all Americans," Trump wrote.
• The three-member CEA, whose chair must be confirmed by the Senate, advises the president on economic policy.

Zoom out: Miran, a fellow at the Manhattan Institute, was senior advisor for economic policy at the Treasury Department during Trump's first term.

The intrigue: Last July, Miran and Nouriel Roubini published a paper accusing the administration of manipulating debt markets and "usurping" a core function of the Federal Reserve to hold down long-term interest rates ahead of the election.

• Treasury vehemently denied the allegation.

Miran has been critical of Fed chairman Jerome Powell as well, saying he was "wrong politically and economically" to recommend a major stimulus package in late 2020.

What they're saying: "I look forward to working to help implement the President's policy agenda to create a booming, noninflationary economy that brings prosperity to all Americans!" Miran posted on X.

President-elect Trump demanded Panamanian authorities either lower fees for U.S. ships to transit the Panama Canal, or return its control to the United States.

Why it matters: The U.S. ceded one of the world's most crucial pieces of infrastructure in 1999, and China has become increasingly influential in its operations since.

Catch up quick: Trump, in a lengthy series of Saturday evening posts to Truth Social, said American naval and commercial ships were being treated in an "unfair and injudicious way."

• Trump blasted past administrations for returning the canal to Panama's control, which he called a "token of cooperation."
• "If the principles, both moral and legal, of this magnanimous gesture of giving are not followed, then we will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to us, in full, and without question," Trump said.

The other side: Panama's president, Jose Raúl Mulino, posted a video on social media Sunday night rejecting Trump's demands.

• "The sovereignty and independence of our country are not negotiable," Mulino said.
• "Our canal has the mission to serve humanity and its commerce," Mulino added. "That is one of the greatest values that the Panamanians offer to the world."

The intrigue: Trump quoted Mulino's response on Truth Social and said "We'll see about that!"

• He subsequently posted a picture of the American flag flying over the canal and the message "Welcome to the United States Canal!"

Context: Panama granted the U.S. the right to build the canal and control the land on either side in 1904.

• In 1977 President Jimmy Carter signed a treaty that returned the canal to full Panamanian control by the end of 1999 in exchange for its permanent neutrality.
• The canal has long been viewed as a tool of colonialism and colonial control. Panama sees the canal today as a key factor in its self -determination and national interest amid a changing global economy.

By the numbers: About 10,000 ships a year transit the canal, though in recent times severe drought has limited capacity and helped push transit rates higher.

• The International Trade Administration estimates more than 70% of all ships transiting the canal are going to or from a U.S. port.
• About 2.5% of all global maritime trade passes through the canal, per McKinsey.

Zoom out: China has invested heavily in operations in the Canal Zone in recent years, raising concerns about the zone's neutrality.

• In 2021 the Center for Strategic and International Studies warned a "key decision point" was coming for U.S. interests in the region, given China's expansion.
• The U.S. ambassador reportedly cautioned last year about the situation not escalating to where Panama has to choose between the U.S. and China.

What they're saying: Panamanian politicians blasted Trump's statement.

• "This young Panamanian independent deputy will defend his country with his life if necessary," National Assembly member Manuel Alberto Samaniego Rodriguez posted on X, calling Trump's remarks "regrettable."

Trump, speaking Sunday at the Turning Point Action Conference in Phoenix, Arizona, called Panama's fees "ridiculous" and "highly unfair."

• "The United States has a big and vested interest in the secure, efficient and reliable operation of the Panama Canal," he said.
• It's falling into the wrong hands — it was not given for the benefit of others," Trump continued. "It was given with provisions, you have to treat us fairly and you are not treating us fairly."

Go deeper: Trump suggests he wants to buy Greenland

Editor's note: This story has been updated with comments by Panamanian Jose Raúl Mulino and additional remarks by President-elect Trump and Jose Raúl Mulino.

Russell Contreras contributed reporting.

Many in the meatpacking industry were happy to see Donald Trump reelected — but are also fearful it won't be able to operate without the workers he may try to deport.

Why it matters: Meatpacking, more than almost any other industry in this country, relies on foreign-born labor, whether documented or not. It would face critical challenges if those workers disappeared due to mass deportations.

• Yet meat-related interests overwhelmingly supported Trump financially in 2024, knowing the potential risks to their business.

The big picture: Meatpacking is dangerous and difficult to staff even in the best circumstances.

• "If you ask anybody on the packing side of things, going back before COVID … no one's going to tell you there's a bigger challenge in the meat supply chain than labor," Ethan Lane, vice president of government affairs for the National Cattlemen's Beef Association, tells Axios.

Zoom in: One oft-cited estimate suggests that 30% to 50% of all laborers in the meatpacking industry are undocumented. Producers will dispute that, but no one disagrees the industry relies on migrant labor.

• "This is a decision by the industry. It's a wink and a nod — this is how they can keep labor costs down," says Debbie Berkowitz, a fellow at the Kalmanovitz Initiative at Georgetown and former OSHA chief of staff.
• Some, like the NC Pork Council, deny that their producers use undocumented labor. But they also concede labor shortages plague the industry, and point to a need for immigration reform to expand visas for laborers.
• The pandemic further exposed how immigrant labor has been used to sustain the industry, with high-profile COVID outbreaks highlighting their vulnerability and the critical role they play.

Zoom out: Trump's team has said their deportation program would (first) target criminals (though an Axios review found that to be a relatively small number.)

• The transition, asked about any plans for undocumented meatpacking workers, reiterated its intent to target "illegal criminals, drug dealers, and human traffickers" in a statement to Axios.

But those who work with undocumented laborers say the mere sight of deportations can have a domino effect.

• "Many of the people in my book, they were or are undocumented, and even if they now have residency … they have family who are undocumented and they're scared," says Alice Driver, whose book "Life and Death of the American Worker" examines the lives of undocumented meatpacking workers.
• Driver and others say the specter of deportations could be enough to tip the industry into crisis, as workers flee or stop showing up to work, even if plants aren't being raided.
• If packing plants are short of labor, that raises another concern: the availability and price of meat.

All-time high prices

Zoom out: Prices for staple meats are already at or near 20-year highs, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index data.

• A pound of fresh, whole chicken that cost $1.36 in Feb. 2020 cost $2.08 last month (+53%), while a pound of 100% ground chuck rose from $4.03 to $5.61 (+39%).
• That's despite most packing and slaughter jobs paying less than $20 an hour, on average, per government data. (The industry says wages are rising, however.)

Context: Trump's tariff plans also threaten to impact crucial export revenue.

• Beef and pork businesses rely on revenue from exports of animal products that aren't part of the American diet but sell well overseas.
• Roy Lee Lindsey, CEO of the NC Pork Council, tells Axios that export value makes up about a third of the price farmers get for hogs today.

Even knowing the threat to their business, the industry got behind Trump.

• Donations to Trump from the livestock industry in the 2024 cycle were nearly double the donations to Kamala Harris, according to OpenSecrets.org data.
• The donors were a broad mix, from large industry trade groups to individual ranches and farms.

Broken communities

Mass deportations also threaten to break up communities that have spent decades building tight-knit bonds through shared workplaces.

• For example: A JBS meatpacking facility in Greeley, Colorado employs about 4% of the town.
• "The problem within the industry is that most packing facilities …. build these types of plants in very conservative, rural communities. I don't know that we're going to have a lot of friends in Weld County," says Kim Cordova, president of UFCW Local 7, representing workers at the plant.

The bottom line: Everyone sees the problem coming, but no one knows what will actually happen.

• "I can't imagine that the meatpacking industry is going to be behind this, behind what Trump does in a business sense," Driver says. "It's going to hit companies hard, it's going to hit consumers hard, because let's find out, who's going to take on that work?"

President-elect Trump brushed aside concerns about conflicts of interest involving his adviser Elon Musk, insisting the world's richest man would put the country first.

Why it matters: Musk has Trump's ear on a broad range of government functions that directly impact his space, auto and social media businesses —and those of his competitors, too.

• Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy will have wide latitude with their non-governmental Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, to propose sweeping changes in how the country does business.

Driving the news: Time magazine named Trump its 2024 "Person of the Year," and in a lengthy interview he addressed the potential for conflicts.

• "I think that Elon puts the country long before his company," Trump said.
• "I mean, he's in a lot of companies, but he really is, and I've seen it. He considers this to be his most important project, and he wanted to do it. And, you know, I think, I think he's one of the very few people that would have the credibility to do it, but he puts the country before, and I've seen it, before he puts his company."

Between the lines: Musk's wealth has skyrocketed in the last few weeks precisely because investors believe his companies will benefit from his "First Buddy" status.

• Tesla shares are up 69% since Election Day, the valuation of SpaceX has reportedly increased 70% since June and even the valuation of X is on the rise.

The intrigue: A number of Musk confidants, like David Sacks and Jared Isaacman, have been tapped by Trump for key government roles.

• Even if Musk does not have personal conflicts, it remains to be seen how he will interact with agencies and offices led by his friends.

President-elect Trump promised an expedited pathway to permits and project approvals for anyone investing $1 billion in the United States.

Why it matters: It's not clear who would be eligible, or for what kind of projects, nor how the federal government would do away with the usual labyrinth of regulatory hurdles.

Catch up quick: Trump, in a Truth Social post Tuesday, said anyone making a $1 billion investment "will receive fully expedited approvals and permits, including, but in no way limited to, all Environmental approvals."

• Transition spokespeople did not immediately return requests for comment on who or what would be eligible.

By the numbers: The U.S. already receives more than $177 billion a year in new foreign direct investment, per Commerce Department data. That rate is declining, though.

The intrigue: Trump's specific mention of quick environmental approvals will put the spotlight on Lee Zeldin, the former New York congressman the president-elect picked to lead the EPA.

• Zeldin is considered to have little environmental policymaking experience — but is a strong supporter of Trump's broad deregulatory push.

Luigi Mangione, 26, was arrested in Pennsylvania Monday and charged with five counts unrelated to the fatal shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. Mangione is a person of interest in Thompson's death.

The big picture: Thompson's killing sparked a nationwide manhunt and triggered an outpouring of online vitriol toward the insurance industry.

• Mangione appeared in the Blair County Courthouse, Penn., for a preliminary arraignment on gun charges on Monday night, authorities said. He was charged with one felony count of forgery and one of carrying a firearm without a license, according to a criminal complaint filed in the county.
• He was also charged with three misdemeanor counts: tampering with records or identification, possessing instruments of a crime and false identification to law enforcement authorities.
• Mangione has not been charged with any crime in New York, but is expected to face gun charges in the state, NYPD Chief of Detectives Joe Kenny said during a Monday press briefing.

Driving the news: Mangione was identified at a McDonald's in Altoona, Pennsylvania on Monday. He had fake IDs, a firearm and a device to muffle gunshots at the time of his arrest, New York City Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch said at the press briefing.

• He was recognized by an employee at the fast food restaurant, who called local police, she said. Responding law enforcement officers questioned Mangione, who was "acting suspiciously."
• The fraudulent New Jersey ID he carried was consistent with the one used to check into a New York City hostel before the shooting, Tisch said.

Officers also recovered a handwritten document that "speaks to both his motivations and mindset," Tisch said. That document was three pages long.

• Kenny told reporters that in his agency's correspondence with Altoona police, he does not believe there are any specific threats to other people in the document, but it does appear he has "some ill will toward corporate America."

Mangione was born and raised in Maryland, and his last known address was in Honolulu, Hawaii, Kenny said. He is not believed to have any prior arrests.

• Officials believe he attended college in Pennsylvania but provided no other details on his connection to the Keystone State.

Catch up quick: Thompson was shot in the back on Dec. 4 outside a midtown Manhattan hotel while in the city for a UnitedHealth Group investor meeting.

• Police quickly said the shooting appeared to be targeted, as reports indicated the words "deny," "defend" and "depose" were written on shell casings found at the scene.
• The shooter managed to flee the scene on a bike, quickly dump his bag and leave New York City by bus.

The big picture: Thompson's killing reopened a national debate about the health insurance industry and its behavior, with many people expressing a lack of sympathy for his death.

• The scrutiny led to a separate backlash against Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield over a plan to restrict coverage for surgical anesthesia — a plan quickly reversed following the online outcry.

Go deeper: Who is Luigi Mangione, person of interest in UnitedHealthcare CEO shooting

Editor's note: This a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

President-elect Trump reiterated his promises to impose tariffs and increase oil production, even if it impacts consumers.

Why it matters: By sticking to his campaign pledges, Trump would all but assure a fresh spike in inflation, which was a deciding factor in the election.

The big picture: In a sitdown interview with NBC's "Meet the Press" that aired Sunday, Trump renewed his most important economic plans.

On tariffs, Trump stood by his promise for new levies on major trading partners, which he always insisted those other nations would pay.

• "I don't believe" economists who say tariffs would cause consumer prices to rise, Trump told "Meet the Press" moderator Kristen Welker.
• But pressed to guarantee that prices won't rise, Trump said "I can't guarantee anything. I can't guarantee tomorrow."
• He also insisted the tariffs in his first administration didn't cost the consumer anything, despite research to the contrary; and that there was no inflation during his presidency, despite Fed data showing prices rose consistently throughout his term.
• The National Retail Federation estimates that a 60% tariff on China could cost the average American household up to $624 a year. The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated Trump's full tariff plan could cost a middle-income household $2,600 a year.

On energy, Trump reiterated a commitment to "drill baby drill," a familiar refrain from his first term referring to expanded domestic oil drilling.

• The world currently faces a historic oil glut, and the U.S. is already the top producer in an oversupplied market.
• Oil futures have slipped since Election Day amid the prospect of more drilling.

Yes, but: In a nod to stability, Trump said he won't (for now) try to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell.

• "No, I don't think so. I don't see it," Trump said.
• Powell previously said he wouldn't resign if Trump asked. Trump acknowledged that Sunday, but also said Powell would go if ordered.

President-elect Trump said he would nominate former Rep. Billy Long (R-Mo.) to be IRS commissioner.

Why it matters: Trump and congressional conservatives have long had the IRS in their crosshairs, opposing Biden administration efforts to ramp up the tax agency's funding and audit capability.

Catch up quick: Long, whose background is in real estate, spent 12 years in Congress representing Missouri before losing a 2022 Senate primary.

• "He is the consummate 'people person,' well respected on both sides of the aisle," Trump said in a Truth Social post.
• Long gained some notoriety in Congress for his skills as an auctioneer, once using the talent to drown out protesters during a hearing.

Zoom out: Long would replace the current commissioner, Danny Werfel, whose term runs through late 2027 and who had previously said he intended to stay.

Zoom in: The new administration is expected to pull back on the IRS's funding as part of a pivot away from enforcement.

Go deeper: Trump administration 2.0: Tracking his Cabinet, White House picks