Footage showing a previously unseenChinese warplane scrambled aviation geeks Thursday, with some joking the clips were the perfect Christmas present.
Why it matters: The aircraft emerges amid fiery debates about the future of airpower — manned versus unmanned, mainly — in the U.S. and abroad.
Competition between Washington and Beijing is also boiling.
Zoom in: Videos and photos flooding social media show a large, delta-wing-style aircraft with a cockpit chased by a J-20S fighter.
Its design suggests stealth.
Russian state media quickly amplified the visuals, dubbing it the "White Emperor."
Aviation Week reported that the main landing gear has the "hallmark of heavy fighter-bombers, such as the Sukhoi Su-34."
Yes, but: Much remains unknown about the aircraft. Neither the Chinese government nor industry immediately took credit for the daytime flight.
What we're watching: The fate of the U.S. Air Force's futuristic fighter is in the hands of the incoming Trump administration, following Secretary Frank Kendall's punt.
"I don't want to make a decision that's going to be disrupted and reversed, potentially, by the new team," Kendall said Dec. 19 at a Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies event.
"I don't want us to start industry down a specific course and then have to abruptly reverse that a few months from now."
The State Department's top diplomat for the Middle East, Barbara Leaf, will travel to Damascus in the coming days, two U.S. officials tell Axios.
Why it matters: This will be the first visit by a State Department official to Syria in many years. The visit is part if a resumption of U.S. diplomatic engagement with the transitional government in Syria after the toppling of the Assad regime.
Leaf is expected to meet Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, leader of Sunni Islamist opposition group Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the U.S. officials said.
Leaf will be joined on her trip by former U.S. envoy to Syria Daniel Rubinstein. U.S. officials say Rubenstein, who retired from the State Department, was called back to service in order to serve at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, but after the collapse of the Assad regime was asked to go to Syria instead as the top U.S. diplomat on the ground.
State of play: Secretary of State Tony Blinken said last week that the U.S. has been in direct contact with HTS, which led the offensive that toppled dictator Bashar al-Assad.
It was the first time the U.S. had publicly confirmed any direct contact with HTS, which it designates as a terrorist organization.
Blinken said at a news conference in Jordan that the talks with HTS were focused on discussing the fate of American journalist Austin Tice, who has been missing in Syria for 12 years.
That conversation also included a discussion of the U.S. principles for potentially recognizing the new Syrian government, Blinken said.
Zoom out: The U.S. military has had an ongoing military presence in Syria since 2014 to counter ISIS.
Pentagon Spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters Thursday that there are currently 2,000 U.S. troops in the country — more than had previously been disclosed.
1,100 of those are "temporary rotational forces that deploy to meet shifting mission requirements" and which were sent to Syria prior to Assad's fall, Ryder said.
Ryder said he'd only learned of the 2,000 number "today."
Editor's note: This story has been updated with Ryder's comments.
Drone hysteria has been gripping the East Coast. It's proven two things:
Unmanned tech flexed by the Pentagon and so frequently seen in faraway wars has permeated public thinking.
The U.S., with its patchwork abilities to report, track and engage drones, is not ready for a real incursion.
Why it matters: Foreign surveillance of sensitive sites — military outposts, nuclear energy plants, weapons factories and more — is a serious hazard. But in many purported instances, that's simply not what's happening.
Civilian planes, helicopters, constellations and Christmas lights can from afar look menacing.
Yes, but: The calls for a response have shown how countering drones and other aerial threats looks vastly different on the battlefield than it does at home. And who, exactly, takes the lead gets messy.
In Ukraine, Israel and the Red Sea, overhead attacks are detected by visuals, acoustics, radar and other means before they are disabled by electronic interference, entangling nets or pricey interceptors.
It gets far trickier over populated peacetime areas with sparse self-defense. Plummeting aircraft or debris can kill people; errant munitions can wreck city blocks.
"The intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities that we can employ outside the homeland aren't capabilities that we can necessarily deploy inside the homeland," Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters.
Responsibilities in the U.S. are fragmented among the Defense, Transportation and Homeland Security departments as well as the FBI and the Federal Aviation Administration. Shooting at aircraft, manned or not, will land the average person in serious legal trouble.
Our thought bubble: Confirmed cases of drones buzzing critical infrastructure are likely penetration tests, a move familiar to those in cyber circles.
Let's prod their defenses and gauge reactions, you can imagine a Russia or China or extremist cell saying. What can we learn, and how can we adapt?
What they're saying: "Drones can easily enter and traverse airspace, yet authorities often don't know who's operating them, whether their presence is a threat, or how to respond effectively," Hidden Level CEO Jeff Cole told Axios.
"It's no longer just an FAA or Air Force issue — drones represent tangible risks to critical infrastructure and human safety, requiring a collective approach to ensure security for everyone."
Between the lines: This feels like Chinese spy balloon déjà vu. Little has changed since then.
There were then the same questions about spotting, tracking and interdiction. There were also the same worries about those responsible and what they were collecting.
The balloon, though, was brought down over the ocean by an F-22 strapped with an AIM-9X missile. That's not even remotely realistic here.
Catch up quick: Federal authorities this week called on Congress to enact legislation that "would extend and expand existing counter-drone authorities to identify and mitigate any threat that may emerge."
This comes after Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) demanded the deployment of "special drone-detection tech," President-elect Trump suggested shooting them down, and Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) wildly claimed an Iranian mothership was involved.
Be smart: Imaging specialist Maxar published photos showing Tehran's latest drone carrier, the Shahid Bagheri, anchored near Bandar Abbas in the Persian Gulf.
The bottom line: No single policy change or piece of gear will solve this cluster. It requires an overhaul of domestic defense, including considerations for information warfare.
The defense world was buzzing over the weekend as the U.S. Air Force punted a decision on its futuristic fighter into the new year and into the hands of an administration that could doom it.
Why it matters: A shape-shifting, multibillion-dollar military endeavor feels like an easy target for an administration obsessed with government bloat.
President-elect Trump's nominees and advisers have made clear defense orthodoxy is on the chopping block.
That's doubly true for projects they deem pricey or archaic.
Driving the news: The Air Force on Dec. 5 said it will defer ruling on Next-Generation Air Dominance and instead continue studying what is needed for success.
Secretary Frank Kendall months ago told reporters that experts are "taking a very hard look at whether we've got the right design concept."
Money is among the biggest hurdles. Kendall wants an F-22 replacement for the cost of an F-35, some $80-100 million.
A contract was expected this year. Cancellation, suspension or some other dramatic move would be a blow to the contenders, presumed to be Lockheed Martin and Boeing.
Friction point: Both Vivek Ramaswamy and Elon Musk, billionaires tapped to cut costs and rightsize the federal workforce, have ridiculed manned aircraft.
Ramaswamy told Axios' Mike Allen at the Aspen Institute's Washington forum that sharpening U.S. defense means investing in drones and hypersonic missiles, not "a wide range of other expenditures for new kinds of fighter jets."
Musk posted on X, which he owns, that "some idiots are still building manned fighter jets like the F-35" and that "manned fighter jets are obsolete in the age of drones anyway."
The messaging spooked some and excited others. It prompted questions at the Reagan National Defense Forum in California and continues to inspire think pieces.
What they're saying: "There are real questions about the cost of NGAD and there are real questions about the right mix of manned and unmanned aircraft in the future force," Jerry McGinn, the executive director of the George Mason University Baroni Center for Government Contracting, told Axios.
"This gives the Trump administration space to address these important issues in an intentional manner."
Yes, but: There is plenty of appetite for America's warplanes on the Hill, across the military and even in some MAGA documents.
As Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin defended the NGAD process, delays and all, at RNDF, other service officials at Edwards Air Force Base, California, told reporters they're far from ditching manned fighters.
The Pentagon chapter of Project 2025, authored by a former Trump defense chief, advocates for "the next-generation air dominance system of systems" but stops short of backing a crewed fighter.
The bottom line: Killing NGAD — even portions of it — would signal a sea change for both the military and its contractors.
President Biden responded to the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's brutal regime in Syria by bombing ISIS camps to try to prevent the terror group's resurgence.
President-elect Trump wants little to do with the havoc in Syria, if his social media posts are gospel. He says the country "is a mess, but is not our friend," and that he doesn't want to get involved — a reflection of the isolationist banner he carried in the recent campaign.
Why it matters: Biden has less than six weeks left in office, so how the U.S. proceeds will largely be up to Trump. And while the president-elect's base may support steering clear of Syria's chaos, certain national security officials won't.
"Going forward, there's a pretty good chance his advisers say, 'Look, Mr. President, this ISIS problem is pretty serious. We need to take it seriously,'" Brian Carter, the Middle East portfolio manager at the American Enterprise Institute, told Axios.
Axios is hearing similar takes around Washington: That for all their differences on Syria, how Biden and Trump deal with the situation there is unlikely to be radically different.
Instead, expect shades of change between administrations.
"I think the strategies will largely be similar in the sense that neither Biden or Trump will want to commit ground troops inside of Syria," Alex Plitsas, director of the counterterrorism program at the Atlantic Council, told Axios.
But "neither will want or allow Syria to become a safe haven for groups like the Islamic State," he added.
"So while the public statements have been very different, I believe the policies will actually be very similar."
State of play: U.S. A-10, B-52 and F-15 aircraft pounded 75-plus ISIS targets in Syria over the weekend, part of an effort to keep the terror group from exploiting Assad's ouster by rebels.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, traveling in Japan, described the strikes as "pretty successful."
Some of Trump's most loyal MAGA followers chided the Biden administration over the attacks, reminders of Trump's frequent criticism of U.S. interventions abroad.
Matt Gaetz, the former Florida congressman and Trump's failed initial pick for attorney general, criticized Biden for bombing Syria while Trump was in "Europe to make peace."
Bidenhas a little morethan a month on the White House clock. That's not much time to:
Decipher the role of the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former Al-Qaeda affiliate that's now commanding the spotlight on the ground in Syria.
Help stabilize a country ravaged by civil war and chemical weapons, some of which are still there.
And put his own stamp on the broader, raucous Middle East.
What we're watching: Some 900 U.S. troops are stationed in Syria, where they are charged with rooting out ISIS.
Trump might want to pull them out — he's promised to "end endless wars," a hazy metric.
But he tried that in Syria during his first term — and wound up keeping hundreds of troops there to protect oil fields.
Should Ron DeSantis ditch the Florida governor's mansion for the Pentagon, President-elect Trump will gain another tough-on-the-border compatriot with military experience.
Why it matters: DeSantis pledged to wage war on cartels inside Mexico and has sent guardsmen to Texas for the troubled Operation Lone Star. He's a natural fit for Trump's plans to use the military for mass deportations.
DeSantis also largely aligns with Trump's foreign policy worldview on issues like skepticism over aid to Ukraine and prioritizing competition with China.
State of play: Trump's first pick for defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, an Army veteran and television personality, is under pressure to drop out. DeSantis is one potential replacement.
The two have personally discussed the matter, according to the Bulwark's Marc Caputo. They have also feuded in the past; think "Ron DeSanctimonious" and "DeSaster."
It's unclear if DeSantis would take the gig, which would mean leaving the last two years of his term as governor on the table.
Hegseth, meanwhile, has been furiously reposting support for his own nomination on X. His mother also stumped for him Wednesday morning on "Fox and Friends," and he made his case in writing, on the airwaves, and in meetings with senators.
Context: DeSantis is no stranger to the military.
He served in the Navy as a judge advocate general, more commonly known as JAG. He deployed to Iraq as legal counsel amid a surge of U.S. troops.
Both U.S. Central and Special Operations commands are based in Florida, a state he has led since 2019.
Zoom in: While challenging Trump for the GOP nomination, DeSantis advocated a "Pacific-first" foreign policy, focusing U.S. power on countering China rather than issues like Ukraine.
He also called for making the military less "woke" — a cause Hegseth has also championed — by eliminating DEI initiatives and ending Pentagon contracts with certain "left-wing firms."
What's next: DeSantis, Hegseth or any other candidate will need to be confirmed by the Senate.
Defense secretary, effectively Pentagon CEO, is among the most important positions to fill.
The greater Middle East is erupting, and in just six weeks — tick tock, tick tock — it's Donald Trump's problem.
Why it matters: For all the attention paid to technological face-offs with China and measurements of military might in the Indo-Pacific, it will be the pressures of the Middle East that dominate the early days of Trump's Pentagon.
That puts a premium on drone and counter-drone tech, which evolved in the post-9/11 world, as well as air defenses.
In turn, the teeth of American forces posted in China's backyard could be dulled, as Navy Adm. Samuel Paparo cautioned days ago.
Between the lines: Some of Trump's picks for key government posts are global war on terrorism veterans. Their experience and potential disillusionment will color, not determine, the administration's approach.
Task and Purpose explained it expertly this week.
"The worldview of these veterans has largely been shaped by more than two decades of war," Jeff Schogol wrote. "[Pete] Hegseth, [Tulsi] Gabbard, and [JD] Vance in particular have shown a deep distrust for the foreign interventionalist ideology that underpinned the start" of the war on terror.
Our thought bubble: Squaring much-debated MAGA isolationism with the dangers of the Middle East, including continued assaults on U.S. warships, is difficult.
Among the major flash points this year:
Breakthrough fighting in Syria throws Russia off balance and elevates Turkey. The U.S. keeps about 900 troops in the country; the Defense Department said it had no hand in the clashes around Aleppo.
Houthi attacks off Yemen paralyze global shipping and push U.S. Navy stockpiles into the spotlight. Bill LaPlante, the Pentagon's chief weapons buyer, said at an Axios event that rebel missile advancements "shocked" him.
Months of war in Gaza, spurred by the Oct. 7 massacre, stress test the U.S.-Israel relationship, including weapons accountability. Meanwhile, a fragile ceasefire is brokered with Lebanon.
Iran pushes ahead with its nuclear program, earning a jab from the International Atomic Energy Agency, and launches historic but largely intercepted drone-and-missile barrages.
Three U.S. soldiers are killed at Tower 22 in Jordan. Washington retaliates with B-1 bombers and more, blasting 85 targets in Iraq and Syria.
Trump himself threatened to get involved in the region, saying Monday there "will be ALL HELL TO PAY" if hostages taken by Hamas are not freed come his inauguration.
Exactly how, when or where isn't clear, but he has hit back before.
"If you are a bad guy and you are not afraid of Trump then you are also a dumb guy," Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told Axios' Barak Ravid. "Bad and dumb guys don't last long."
This is also a preview of the next four years. Policy by posting. Threats via threads.
Yes, but: "Sentiment among Washington's China hawks and Middle East hands is the same: Don't let the urgent get in the way of the important," Ian Byrne with Beacon Global Strategies told Axios.
"It's a false premise that the U.S. must prioritize one region over the other when U.S. interests overlap across both."
What's next: Novel solutions are needed where decades of effort and overwhelming firepower have failed. All eyes are on Trump.
The Biden administration announced a new $725 million security assistance package for Ukraine on Monday that includes a provision for more land mines and precision rocket launchers.
Retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, Trump's pick for special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, has pushed a proposal to end the war between the two nations that would include requiring Kyiv to relinquish its goal of regaining seized territory.
Driving the news: National security adviser Jake Sullivan said Biden had directed the Defense Department to rapidly deliver to Ukraine materiel that includes "hundreds of thousands of additional artillery rounds, thousands of additional rockets, and other critical capabilities" between now and mid-January.
"To help Ukraine stabilize its lines in the east, the President has authorized the provision of non-persistent anti-personnel land mines to Ukraine as a limited exception to the Administration's continuing landmine policy," per Sullivan's statement.
"In response to the entry of North Korean soldiers into this war, the President has decided to adjust permissions on Ukraine's use of U.S.-provided long-range missiles. And to disrupt Russia's war machine, the United States has implemented major sanctions against Russia's financial sector, with more sanctions to follow."
State of play: Russian leader Vladimir Putin's forces last month attacked Ukraine using an "experimental" intermediate-range ballistic missile.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in November that Russian forces had been unsuccessful in the way they were fighting, so they changed their tactics.
"They lead with dismounted forces, who are able to close and do things to kind of pave the way for mechanized forces," he said.
"So that's what the Ukrainians are seeing right now. And they have a need for things that can help slow down that effort, on the part of the Russians. They're fabricating their own antipersonnel land mines right now."
Zoom in: The package that's provided under the Presidential Drawdown Authority from Department of Defense stocks includes ammunition for HIMARS precision rocket launchers (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems), per a statement from Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
It also covers stinger missiles, counter-drone systems and anti-armor weapons, among other weaponry, according to Blinken.
What they're saying: Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said at a briefing Monday, "The bottom line is at the president's direction, we will spend every dollar that Congress has appropriated for Ukraine and to replenish our stockpiles."
Ryder added: "We understand the urgent situation in Ukraine and the president's direction and will continue to do everything we can to ensure that Ukraine is getting the aid that it needs."
Houthi rebels are brandishing increasingly sophisticated weapons, including missiles that "can do things that are just amazing," the Pentagon's chief weapons buyer said at an Axios event.
The big picture: The militant group has for a year used drones and missiles to strangle waters off Yemen,disrupting international shipping.
Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Bill LaPlante on Wednesday said the Houthis "are getting scary."
"I'm an engineer and a physicist, and I've been around missiles my whole career," he said at the Future of Defense summit in Washington, DC. "What I've seen of what the Houthis have done in the last six months is something that — I'm just shocked."
State of play: The group's forces menace almost every ship passing by — civilian or military — and have even sent some to the seafloor.
Two U.S. Navy destroyers were attacked days ago as they slipped through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
At least eight attack drones, five anti-ship ballistic missiles and four anti-ship cruise missiles were intercepted, according to U.S. Central Command.No injuries or damage to the warships were reported.
The barrages are said to be in retaliation to Israel's war in Gaza. But many targets have no obvious affiliation.
Zoom out: The Houthis are empowered by Iran. The U.S. considers the regime a national security threat.
"The Houthis are the only Iranian proxy with anti-ship ballistic missiles," Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Axios. "That is no accident."
Houthi zeal and Iranian backing, he added, "have proven to be a lethal combination."
