Why the L.A. County fires are already among the most destructive in California's history
None of the Los Angeles County fires that have killed at least 10 people are among California's 20 largest wildfires, but they're among the most destructive on record as they burned more structures overnight.
The big picture: Mayor Karen Bass described this enduring "firestorm" that prompted tens of thousands to evacuate after erupting Tuesday amid extremely dry conditions and Santa Ana winds that reached hurricane-force intensity as "the big one in magnitude."
State of play: Los Angeles City Fire Chief Kristin Crowley said at a Thursday briefing it's "safe to say" the largest blaze, the Palisades Fire, is "one of the most destructive natural disasters in the history of Los Angeles."
- It's estimated the blaze that ignited in Pacific Palisades has burned at 6% containment 5,316 structures across 19,978 acres in the affluent L.A. area between Malibu and Santa Monica as of late Thursday, per Cal Fire.
- That makes the blaze that's killed at least two people is California's third-most destructive blaze on record, in terms of structures burned.
- The Eaton Fire, which has killed at least three people, ranks fourth in Cal Fire's top-20 most destructive wildfires, with "5,000+" structures destroyed.
- It's burned at 0% containment an estimated 13,690 acres north of Pasadena late Thursday, though fire officials said growth had been "significantly stopped.
Of note: The largest fire ever recorded in California, 2020's August Complex Fire, razed more than 1 million acres north of Sacramento and destroyed 935 structures, per Cal Fire.
Driving the news: Many of the fires ignited in densely populated areas during an extreme wind event that's been more catastrophic than the last big one to hit Southern California in 2011 as much of the region endures "moderate drought" conditions.
- There's been no meaningful rainfall for months in some areas, which Axios' Andrew Freedman notes are experiencing the driest conditions on record for early January following an unusually hot summer that dried out vegetation. This time of year is typically the region's wet season.
- Bass noted at a briefing Wednesday, "Hurricane-force winds are usually accompanied by rain storms, but these are hurricane-force winds are combined with extremely dry drought conditions."
- Los Angeles Police Chief Jim McDonnell at the same briefing described the situation as "unprecedented."
Between the lines: Climate change, "while certainly not only relevant factor, has indeed increased risk of extreme" California wildfires," wrote UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain on Bluesky.
- "The main reason is increasing temperatures & atmospheric 'thirstiness,"' but increased precipitation "whiplash"/seasonal shifts is also an emerging factor," he added, referring to when there are rapid swings between intensely wet and dangerously dry weather.
- "The evidence shows that hydroclimate whiplash has already increased due to global warming, and further warming will bring about even larger increases," said Swain in a statement announcing a study he led on the matter that was published in Nature Review Wednesday.
- "This whiplash sequence in California has increased fire risk twofold: first, by greatly increasing the growth of flammable grass and brush in the months leading up to fire season, and then by drying it out to exceptionally high levels with the extreme dryness and warmth that followed."
What we're watching: Swain said during a livestream he expects the "urban firestorm" will likely become "the costliest wildfire disaster in California, if not national history, along with a number of other superlatives."
- But the extreme weather threat is far from over. Wind gusts of up to 55 mph were forecast into Friday, with more gusty north-to-northeast winds expected to develop over the weekend.
- A stronger offshore wind event could occur over Monday night and Tuesday, per the National Weather Service.
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