We're in the tail end of winter here, but it's snowing as I write this. Not a lot, but just enough to be a potential frustration to the move I have planned for later this week. Basically, winter weather sucks, and one of the worst things about it is how unpredictable it can be. The Weather Company, owners and developers of the Weather Channel app (but not the TV station) know this, and have just released a feature to try and make planning for storms a little easier.

It's called probabilistic snowfall, and it aims to give you greater insight into just how severe or impactful a storm might be. You'll still see the standard "50 percent chance of snowfall" in your forecasts, but in the 72 hours leading up to snow, you'll also see the percent change for specific snowfall amounts. For example, you'll see that there's an 80 percent chance of snow overall, but you'll also see bars detailing how likely more specific snowfall amounts are. In this screenshot from the app, you can see that five to eight inches is the most likely outcome, followed by eight to 12 inches — enough snow that you might want to change your plans to deal with it.

According to Rachel Chukura, head of product at The Weather Company, that was precisely the vision behind the feature. "The idea is that users can see the different probabilities and know there could be variations, she said. "That's important because of all the decisions we make in terms of what weather we think is coming. What time do you need to leave for your commute, will there be a school delay, and so on." And while the company is starting with snowfall forecasts, they also hope to bring it to more forecasting tools over time.

I've been using the feature for about a week, just in time to see it pop up for the small storm we had in Philadelphia last night. I obviously can't say how accurate it is, as I'm not out there measuring snowfall with a ruler. But the few inches we got overnight were in line with the probabilistic forecast, and it was helpful leading up to the storm to know I likely didn't have to worry about the weather truly being an inconvenience.

The feature is part of the Weather Channel app's premium subscription, which costs $30 per year. Besides probabilistic snowfall, that also removes ads, shows longer-term forecasts on the radar, adds a 30-mile lightning strike map and provides more detailed 15-minute weather breakdowns. While most people out there will stick with the default weather app on their phones, or just use the free version of the Weather Channel or other similar apps, there's definitely something to be said for greater insight into how likely you are to get crushed by a snowstorm.

This article originally appeared on Engadget at https://www.engadget.com/apps/the-weather-channel-app-can-show-how-likely-you-are-to-get-specific-snowfall-amounts-165900316.html?src=rss

©

© The Weather Company

As Los Angeles reels from the loss of lives and homes to the Easton and Palisades fires, scientists are asking why the events of this January have been so catastrophic. Climate change very likely played a part in setting the stage that caused multiple fires to sweep through the region, according to analysis from the World Weather Attribution, an international research initiative.

"Eight of the eleven models examined also show an increase in extreme January [Fire Weather Index], increasing our confidence that climate change is driving this trend," the group said of their investigation.

Earth is currently 1.3°C hotter than it was before the industrial era began. The WWA found that extreme Fire Weather Index conditions are 35 percent more likely to occur in the LA area at this temperature. If the planet increases 2.6°C from its pre-industrial temperature, extreme conditions become another 35 percent more likely. Based on current policies, a 2.6°C higher temperature is the minimum increase the Earth is projected to reach by the year 2100.

The researchers noted, however, that the growing odds of those peak conditions is not a linear progression. Other factors also contributed to the widespread devastation across the Los Angeles area, including lack of rain; the region had not received significant rainfall since May 2024. This type of drought condition is 2.4 times more likely at the Earth's current temperature than at its pre-industrial level. Santa Ana winds also caused the rapid spread and difficulties containing the blazes. The team said that the impact of wind is not always reflected well in climate models.

The World Weather Attribution conducts rapid studies into extreme weather events to analyze whether climate change was a factor. The international team of researchers aim to address the impact of climate in natural disasters "while the impacts of the extreme weather event are still fresh in the minds of the public and policymakers, and decisions about rebuilding are being made."

This article originally appeared on Engadget at https://www.engadget.com/science/climate-change-increased-the-odds-of-los-angeles-devastating-fires-researchers-say-211652200.html?src=rss

©

© ASSOCIATED PRESS

2023 was the hottest year on record. This past year is on track to beating it and it caused more problems this past year than just spiking thermometers.

The World Weather Attribution (WWA) released its annual “Extreme Weather” report showing how the record-breaking 34.34 Fahrenheit increase in man-made warming from the past year caused “unrelenting heatwaves, drought, wildfire, storms and floods.” The WWA estimates that climate change was responsible for at least 3,700 deaths and 26 weather events in 2024 that led to “the displacement of millions.”

The report recorded a total of 219 events from 2024 that met its “trigger criteria” for identifying impactful weather events. Many of the events were influenced by the natural climate pattern known as El Niño (which has only become stronger under the effects of climate change) but the WWA studies “found that climate change played a bigger role than El Niño in fueling these events, including the historic drought in the Amazon.”

Climate change added on an average 41 additional dangerous heat days and fueled record-breaking rain and flooding across the globe. A study of 16 floods found all but one of them were caused by warming atmospheres that retained more moisture leading to heavier rainfall. These climate conditions can also fuel bigger and deadlier hurricanes and typhoons such as the Helene, the Category 4 Hurricane that hit America in September. North Carolina’s Office of State Budget and Management estimates that Helene caused $53.8 billion in damage in its state alone.

Two of the world’s most important ecosystems were also “hit hard by climate change in 2024,” according to the WWA report. The Amazon rainforest and the Pantanal Wetland, the largest tropical wetland in the world, experienced severe droughts and wildfires that created “huge biodiversity loss” in the past year.

Both areas are critical for maintaining the strength of the Earth’s ecosystems, climate and economies. The Amazon’s plant life removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through photosynthesis and releases water into the atmosphere that helps control the climate and circulate ocean currents. The Pantanal Wetland houses tens of thousands of species of wildlife and provides much needed flood control for the region and creates global economic activity for cattle ranching and soy production, according to the World Wildlife Fund (WWF).

The WWA’s report set some critical resolutions for 2025 to combat the rising influence of climate change. The report calls for a “faster shift” away from fossil fuel usage, improvements in early warning systems for extreme weather events, a greater focus on reporting of heat related deaths and financing for developing countries and regions hit hardest by the effects of climate change.

This article originally appeared on Engadget at https://www.engadget.com/science/2024-is-on-its-way-to-being-the-hottest-year-ever-211524257.html?src=rss

©

© MICHAEL DANTAS via Getty Images