Federal agents' arrest of Columbia University protest leader Mahmoud Khalil — a lawful permanent U.S. resident with a green card — is being criticized by free-speech advocates who see it as a chilling escalation of President Trump's immigration crackdown.

Why it matters: The White House doesn't see Khalil's arrest as a First Amendment issue. It says his actions — helping to lead campus protests against Israel's treatment of Palestinians last year — run afoul of President Trump's recent executive order banning antisemitism.

• And in a move that critics say is aimed at silencing campus protesters, Trump's administration is indicating that Khalil's actions against U.S. foreign policy positions justify revoking his green card — a move that could lead to deporting him.

State of play: Green card holders — there are about 13 million in the U.S. — typically must break the law to be deported. There's currently no allegation that Khalil, a Syrian national, committed a crime.

• But the Department of Homeland Security has been investigating him and gathered evidence that he was actively supporting Hamas, but not materially supporting the terror group, a White House official said.
• Secretary of State Marco Rubio was presented with evidence from the DHS review and determined that Khalil acted against U.S. foreign policy positions, the official said.
• U.S. law allows the secretary of state to deport a green card holder if that person is deemed to have "potentially serious adverse foreign policy consequences for the United States."

The latest: U.S. District Judge Jesse M. Furman on Monday blocked any attempt by the Trump administration to deport Khalil until the court says otherwise.

• A conference between the judge and all parties involved is scheduled for Wednesday in a Manhattan federal court.

The White House official said the decision to arrest Khalil was based on his public and private activities, but wouldn't say what those activities revealed about Khalil.

• DHS and the State Department didn't respond to requests for comment.

Khalil is being detained at an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facility in Louisiana.

• His attorneys have filed an emergency petition asking that he be returned to New York, where his the legal challenge to his detention is unfolding.
• Khalil's arrest "for his constitutionally protected activity that the administration disagrees with is not only patently unlawful, it is a further dangerous step into modern-day McCarthyist repression," Baher Azmy, legal director of the Center for Constitutional Rights, said in a statement.
• Azmy's organization is one of the legal groups challenging Khalil's detention.

Zoom in: Free speech, even hate speech, is protected by the First Amendment. The Supreme Court has backed this principle.

• "There's a question on what kind of 'support' [Khalil] was providing [Hamas], if any," said Will Creeley, legal director at FIRE, a free speech-focused legal advocacy group.
• "You can walk around and talk about how Hamas is the greatest thing since sliced bread, but unless you're providing material support to Hamas ... then you have the right to your view — no matter how offensive some, many or most Americans would find it," Creeley said.
• He added that if Khalil is accused of breaking a law, he'd still be entitled to due process. Creeley's group sent a letter to government agencies requesting more information about the grounds for Khalil's detention.

The intrigue: Khalil's arrest came days after Rubio posted on X that the U.S. had "zero tolerance for foreign visitors who support terrorists."

• He added that "violators of U.S. law — including international students — face visa denial or revocation, and deportation."

What they're saying: Khalil's arrest is "a blatant attack on the First Amendment's guarantee of free speech," the Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR), the nation's largest Muslim civil rights and advocacy organization, said in a statement.

• CAIR said Khalil is being detained for "his peaceful, anti-genocide activism."
• "This arrest is unprecedented, illegal, and un-American," Ben Wizner, director of the ACLU's Speech, Privacy, and Technology Project, said in a statement.

The other side: "We appreciate the Trump administration's broad, bold set of efforts to counter campus antisemitism — and this action further illustrates that resolve by holding alleged perpetrators responsible for their actions," the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) posted on X.

• "Those who sympathize with terrorism are unwelcome on our shores," Trump Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller said on X. "They will be denied entry or sent home."

What to watch: Trump said in a social media post that Khalil's arrest is the first of many to come.

• The White House official did not share which campuses or activists would be targeted next. The official said the crackdown would extend only to visa or green card holders, not to U.S. citizens.

President Trump praised the arrest of pro-Palestinian activist and Columbia University alumnus Mahmoud Khalil on Monday, saying it's the first of "many to come."

Why it matters: The Trump administration appears willing to curb, or potentially outlaw, protest movements it disapproves of.

Driving the news: Trump wrote on Truth Social that Khalil is "a Radical Foreign Pro-Hamas Student" and promised to "find, apprehend, and deport these terrorist sympathizers from our country — never to return again."

• Khalil attended Columbia University on a student visa and was one of the most visible student activists during the Pro-Palestinian encampment at the school last spring. He gave multiple interviews on the protest and engaged in negotiations with university leaders regarding protesters' demands.
• Before his arrest, he told the AP that Columbia accused him of misconduct weeks before his December graduation, and that most of them involved social media posts he had "nothing to do with."

What we're watching: U.S. District Judge Jesse M. Furman blocked any attempt by the Trump administration to deport Khalil until the court says otherwise.

• A conference between the judge and all parties is scheduled for Wednesday in Manhattan federal court.

Between the lines: ICE agents told Khalil prior to his Saturday arrest that his student visa had been revoked. But he is a legal permanent resident and not in the U.S. on a student visa, attorney Amy Greer said in a statement.

• Khalil's whereabouts had been a mystery following his arrest, with his wife being told he was sent to a facility in Elizabeth, New Jersey. When she attempted to visit him, there was no record of Khalil being processed, Greer said.
• ICE records show Khalil is currently being held at the Jena/LaSalle Detention Facility, also known as the Central Louisiana Ice Processing Center (CLIPC), in Jena, Louisiana. Greer said arrangements had been made for local attorneys to visit him in the state on Monday and Tuesday.

What they're saying: "We know there are more students at Columbia and other Universities across the Country who have engaged in pro-terrorist, anti-Semitic, anti-American activity, and the Trump Administration will not tolerate it," the president wrote, saying many involved "are not students" but "paid agitators."

• "If you support terrorism, including the slaughtering of innocent men, women, and children, your presence is contrary to our national and foreign policy interests, and you are not welcome here," Trump added.
• DHS spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin told Axios in a statement that Kahlil "led activities aligned to Hamas, a designated terrorist organization," and that his arrest was conducted in support of the president's executive orders "prohibiting anti-Semitism."

The other side: "The disturbing arrest of Mahmoud Khalil for exercising his right to free speech marks a dramatic escalation in the Trump administration's abuse of immigration enforcement and disregard for the law," said Kica Matos, president of the National Immigration Law Center.

• Matos also called for Khalil's immediate release.
• Greer said transferring her client to Louisiana "is a blatantly improper but familiar tactic designed to frustrate the New York federal court's jurisdiction, and isolate Mahmoud far from his lawyers, his home, and his local community of support — although now his growing support group extends internationally."

Zoom out: Khalil's arrest comes as the Trump administration moves to revoke student visas for foreign nationals it deems to be "Hamas sympathizers" — a process that will involve AI-assisted reviews student visa holders' social media accounts.

• Trump has also threatened to halt federal funding for schools and universities that allow "illegal protests."

Secretary of State Marco Rubio posted on X last week that the U.S. has "zero tolerance for foreign visitors who support terrorists."

• He added that "violators of U.S. law — including international students — face visa denial or revocation, and deportation."
• U.S. law allows the Secretary of State to deport someone if they are deemed to have "potentially serious adverse foreign policy consequences for the United States."

Context: There are currently around 13 million green card holders, or lawful permanent residents, in the U.S., according to the Office of Homeland Security Statistics.

• Green card holders are immigrants who have been granted lawful permanent residence are not yet U.S. citizens.

How it works: A foreign national can get a green card through a job offer from a U.S. employer, family sponsorship from a U.S. citizen or lawful permanent resident, a year after being granted refugee or asylum status or through the annual Diversity Green Card Lottery.

• A green card can be revoked for fraud, violating immigration laws, criminal activity or failure to maintain permanent residence.

More from Axios:

• Trump yanks $400 million from Columbia over allegations of antisemitism
• ICE fears prompt foreign workers and students to keep visas close

Editor's note: This story has been updated with an order from Judge Furman and further comment from attorney Amy Greer.

President Trump renewed his ask for more funding to carry out his immigration agenda, including border security and "the largest deportation operation in American history" during his address to Congress Tuesday night.

Why it matters: Trump's mass deportation plans are near-impossible to achieve without more money, which Democrats are likely to oppose. Trump Cabinet members, particularly border czar Tom Homan, have made a similar ask for weeks.

Zoom out: During the speech, Trump said he hoped to surpass the deportation record of "current record holder Dwight D. Eisenhower, a moderate man but someone who believed very strongly in borders" — a reference to Operation Wetback.

• That mass deportation, in the 1950s, used military-style tactics to round up 1.3 million Mexicans and Mexican Americans across the country for the-then largest deportation operation in U.S. history. "Wetback" is a racial slur for Mexicans.
• The president also celebrated new data on border crossings in February that showed they'd declined to their lowest level in decades.

Zoom in: Trump made his case for more funding by repeating messages from the campaign trail, including falsehoods about migrants and immigration policy.

• Trump repeated debunked claims about the immigrant population numbers in Springfield, Ohio and gang members occupying Aurora, Colo.
• He repeated that his predecessor, President Biden, had open borders into the country, which he did not.
• Trump also said that people who illegally crossed the border were "murderers, drug dealers, gang members and people from mental institutions and insane asylums" and invited several guests to underscore his anti-immigration message.

Reality check: There's no evidence that immigrants trying to come into the country were from prisons and mental institutions.

• Immigrants commit fewer crimes than their American-born counterparts, studies have shown. But Trump and others have elevated individual cases that support their claims, like the death of Georgia nursing student Laken Riley.
• The 22,797 immigrants out of 43,759 — or 52.1% — currently held in ICE detention at the various locations across the country have no criminal record, data shows.
• Many more have only minor offenses, including traffic violations.
• Less than 0.5% of the 1.8 million cases in immigration courts during the past fiscal year — involving about 8,400 people — included deportation orders for alleged crimes other than entering the U.S. illegally, an Axios review of government data found.

Between the lines: Trump entered office at a time when U.S. immigration courts already are on pace to decide record numbers of deportation cases — and order the most removals in five years — under Biden's push to fast-track asylum decisions.

• A backlog of 3.7 million cases in immigration courts, where immigrants are entitled to make their case to stay in the U.S., means detained immigrants can wait months, even years, for a hearing.
• Immigration courts are predicted to rule on 852,000 deportation cases from Oct. 1, 2024, to Sept. 30, 2025, according to an analysis of data by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC).
• If that pace continues, immigration judges will decide more deportation cases in 2025 than in any previous year on record.

The other side: Immigrant rights groups quickly denounced Trump's rhetoric around "invasion" or immigrants coming from mental institutions.

• "It is vital that we remain vigilant against any hateful language that undermines the rich diversity and strength of democracy," Hector Sanchez Barba, President and CEO of the left-leaning Mi Familia Vota said.

In the Spanish language response, U.S. Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D-NY) said Trump's immigration policies are not designed to deport criminals who should be deported, "but to create a reign of terror that negatively impacts local economies."

• The chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus said the president was acting "more like a king than like a president."

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional comment from Rep. Adriano Espaillat.

The number of immigrants removed from the U.S. was down during President Trump's first days in office compared to the daily average in the final weeks of Joe Biden's term, according to early numbers reviewed by Axios.

Why it matters: The data offer a mixed view of how Trump's plans to deport "millions" of unauthorized immigrants and dramatically beef up border security are playing out so far.

Zoom in: On one hand, the large drop in illegal border crossings since Trump took office has significantly reduced the number of people U.S. agents are catching at the border and designating for quick removal.

• Trump is celebrating this decline, saying in a Truth Social post Saturday, "The Invasion of our Country is OVER."

On the other hand, the administration's push to quickly remove millions of undocumented immigrants in the nation's interior has run into the reality of existing laws, limited government resources and legal challenges.

• Immigrants arrested well within the nation's interior are entitled to a court hearing in a system that's backlogged for months.

By the numbers: Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removals of immigrants who were in the country illegally declined by 6.5% during Trump's first two full weeks in office, according to the data from the ICE detention management database and collected by the nonpartisan Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC).

• From Jan. 26 to Feb. 8, the U.S. government removed from the country 693 a day on average, the TRAC analysis found.
• From Oct. 1 to Jan. 25, the period including the last days of the Biden administration, the daily average for removals was 733.

Zoom out: Daily immigrant arrests by ICE were down nearly 5% during the first week of February compared to the daily average during all of fiscal 2024 under the Biden administration.

• ICE arrested an average of 724 people a day the first eight days of February. The average number of arrests in FY 2024 was 759.

A senior White House official told Axios that overall, Trump is happy with the efforts and pace of his immigration crackdown.

• "He's happy with it, but we're not going to take our foot off the gas. It's all gas, no brakes, is what we say," the official said.

The intrigue: Tricia McLaughlin, assistant secretary at the Department of Homeland Security, told Axios that "removals aren't down" but did not provide data explaining that point of view.

• McLaughlin said about 55,000 people were removed from the U.S. by all enforcement agencies from Jan. 21 to Feb. 27.
• It appears she was referring to removals (deportations and removals of undocumented immigrants), administrative returns (migrants who withdraw applications at ports of entry or crew members on ships who arrive without visas) and enforcement returns (migrants crossing the border who are returned by ICE, the Border Patrol or another agency).
• That figure would be below the monthly average for those categories in fiscal 2024, which was about 67,700 — excluding December, for which there isn't updated data yet.
• In February alone of last year, total removals were more than 69,000 people, according to the Office of Homeland Security Statistics.

Between the lines: Trump's administration has pleaded with Congress for more funding to ramp up enforcement.

• Border czar Tom Homan has been making the rounds to law enforcement groups, in media interviews and on Capitol Hill to rally support for Trump's biggest campaign promise.

The administration has modified deals with private prison contractors CoreCivic and Geo Group to provide more detention space for arrested immigrants.

• Contractors providing technical and data services also are pitching the administration on how to better share "enforcement lifecycle" data between agencies.
• "Technology is how you supercharge President Trump's policy. Of course ICE is going to need a massive ramping up of resources, but not just legacy additives — creative and innovative solutions are key here," said one person close to the administration, who asked not to be identified because the funding debate is fluid.

What they're saying: "Everybody's caught up in the Dow Jones-ing of ICE arrest numbers — which proves very little," said Jason Houser, a former ICE chief of staff during the Biden administration.

Business groups are quietly urging the Trump administration to ease up on its plans for immigration raids in workplaces, but the White House is resisting.

Why it matters: So far, the pace of workplace raids doesn't appear to have increased under President Trump compared to the Biden administration's efforts. But aggressive shows of enforcement are key to Trump's plans to crackdown on illegal immigration.

Zoom in: Just the threat of more raids has rattled several industries — such as construction and agriculture — that rely on immigrant labor, not all of it legal.

• "Rumors of raids are having more impact at this point than raids themselves," said Brian Turmail, vice president of public affairs and workforce for the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC).
• Two agriculture industry group leaders echoed that sentiment. Concerns about raids have led some workers to walk off job sites early or not show up at all, they said.
• "It's a question of, where are we being prioritized" in the immigration crackdown, said one of the agriculture industry group leaders, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the immigration issue. "I think there's a lot of uncertainty" about that.

The big picture: Trump's team and other Republican leaders are betting that a crackdown on immigrants not authorized to work in the U.S. will open up jobs for Americans and legal residents, and raise wages among working-class voters, who've drifted toward the GOP in recent elections.

• In doing so, the administration is bucking some of the GOP's traditional supporters in the business community.
• Americans "overwhelmingly voted for decisive action on the border and those here illegally," said Chris LaCivita, a Trump campaign co-manager who's now a senior adviser at Building America's Future, a group that supports Trump initiatives. "No amount of lobbying from certain business sectors will change what the new GOP and President Trump are determined to implement."
• "Republicans are making a big switch, a lot of them," a former Trump administration official said. They're "recognizing that the American worker is not happy, and they're justified in not being happy."

Critics see the White House's plan as leading to an exodus of workers in jobs that many Americans don't want to do, resulting in lower productivity, higher prices and a damaged economy.

• "The long-term impact will be where housing prices are already too high in places like Arizona," said Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.). "When they can't get the workforce to build the houses, the prices are going to go up and rents are going to go up."
• "We've been told why Americans don't do" certain jobs, said immigration attorney Patricia Gannon, who used to work for the Immigration and Naturalization Service. "We may not like the answers."

By the numbers: Undocumented workers and those with expired work visas can be difficult to track across sectors of the economy, but some studies have given a glimpse of their presence.

• The American Immigration Council estimates that about 4.6% of the employed labor force are undocumented immigrants.
• A recent Department of Agriculture study estimated that about 42% of America's farmworkers were undocumented from 2020 to 2022.
• About a quarter of construction workers across the U.S. may be undocumented, according to the National Immigration Forum, an immigration advocacy group.

Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) told Axios he's heard from companies in his state concerned about worksite raids.

• " 'Don't hire illegals' should be your statement," Moreno said he told one business association when it asked him what it should say about the situation.
• "Migrants are … fleeing terrible situations," Moreno said. "But it's the companies that are hiring that need to have some sort of ramifications."

The intrigue: Trump's immigration plans have sparked increased lobbying on the issue. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the nation's largest lobbying organization, recently filed a government disclosure that offered hints at its work on immigration.

• The chamber didn't respond to an interview request and didn't list specific policies it's lobbying on in its February report.
• But a more detailed filing for the last quarter of 2024 showed the chamber lobbied on "high-skilled" immigrants, "less-skilled" immigrants, various immigration visa categories and several immigration-related bills.
• Other industry groups, including the AGC, are pushing for protections for their labor force, including more visas for foreign workers and more trade school trainings to hire Americans.

What they're saying: "[Pennsylvania Democratic Sen.] John Fetterman would have a better chance of convincing Trump to do something for the business community than the chamber," said one Republican lobbyist, who currently doesn't have a client focused on immigration.

• "The chamber represents the Nikki Haley-establishment, Paul Ryan-, Mitch McConnell-wing of the party, which is dead and buried at this point," the lobbyist added.
• "Businesses that human traffic and exploit migrants for cheap labor should be afraid: We will go after them," said Tricia McLaughlin, assistant secretary for public affairs at the Department of Homeland Security.
• "As for law-abiding companies, the media is intentionally manufacturing fear," she added. "If there was any correlation between rampant illegal immigration and a good economy, Biden would have had a booming economy."

Many Democrats have backed detaining and removing criminals who are in the U.S. without authorization, but don't support Trump's plans.

• "Mass deportations," Kelly said, "are designed to scare people. We need to deport criminals."

A judge on Monday rejected the Associated Press' emergency motion to rescind the White House ban against its access to some press events, as he sought more details on the circumstances surrounding the case.

Why it matters: It's a win for the White House — at least for now — as they seek to restrict the AP's access, following the news organization's decision to use Gulf of Mexico rather than Gulf of America.

Driving the news: In a hearing on Monday afternoon, Judge Trevor McFadden requested more details about the events that the AP has been barred from and the number of reporters allowed into larger events.

• McFadden didn't find any reason to immediately stop the administration's ban, but he said that case law seems to be against it.

The big picture: The ruling comes after the White House asked the judge to allow it to continue barring the AP from some press events. It argued in a court filing on Monday that access to the president is at his discretion and not a constitutional right.

• The filing said that just because the AP "may have long received special media access to the president does not mean that such access is constitutionally compelled in perpetuity."
• The White House hailed the judge's order, saying in a statement, "asking the president of the United States questions in the Oval Office and aboard Air Force One is a privilege granted to journalists, not a legal right."

The other side: "We look forward to our next hearing on March 20 where we will continue to stand for the right of the press and the public to speak freely without government retaliation," AP spokesperson Lauren Easton said in a statement.

Catch up quick: The Associated Press named White House deputy chief of staff Taylor Budowich, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt and White House chief of staff Susie Wiles in their suit filed last week in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia.

• The AP accused the White House of violating its First Amendment rights after the outlet's reporters were barred from attending some events, like Oval Office meetings and Air Force One press pools, after the AP's continued use of Gulf of Mexico in its reporting.

The big picture: The White House is targeting AP because of the preeminent role it plays in shaping mainstream news media language via its influential stylebook and, therefore, how other outlets report on the president and his administration.

• Republicans believe the AP has become institutionally geared toward the left.
• Trump advisers say AP's photographers were blocked as well, thereby depriving the organization of the revenue it earns from selling pictures on its news wire.
• AP says its style guide is non-biased and is continually updated to provide accurate, fair and neutral information.

The intrigue: Ed Martin, the interim U.S. attorney for D.C., falsely referred to his office as "President Trumps' lawyers" [sic] in a post on X on Monday. Martin wrote that his team is "vigilant in standing against entities like the AP that refuse to put America first."

• Martin is not a personal lawyer for Trump. As a U.S. attorney for D.C., he is the top prosecutor for the city, with a big portfolio, including white collar and national security investigations and nearly all street-level crime, Axios' Cuneyt Dil reported.
• Per the office's website, "The United States Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia is committed to ensuring the fair and impartial administration of justice for all Americans."

Between the lines: Trump has installed loyalists at all levels of U.S. government. He's repeatedly promised to use Justice Department officials to seek retribution against his perceived enemies.

• His administration's recent demand that charges against New York City mayor Eric Adams be dismissed led several top prosecutors in New York and D.C. to resign.

The other side: The White House Correspondents Association, an almost 800-member independent press group, filed an amicus brief on Sunday on the AP's behalf.

• It argues that the free speech and integrity of not just the plaintiffs is at stake.
• The brief says that the administration's actions "will chill and distort news coverage of the President to the public's detriment" — a harm that extends beyond just the AP.
• The WHCA also argues that the independent pool system — a rotation of the association's member reporters who follow the president — is a key part of coverage on the White House beat, calling it the "first draft of history of events of domestic and global importance."

Go deeper: AP sues Trump officials over Oval Office ban, citing First Amendment

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional developments.

U.S. agents arrested more than 21,000 unauthorized immigrants in November as President Biden's term wound down — a pace the Trump administration doesn't appear to be matching in its first month despite its crackdown, an Axios review of new data finds.

Why it matters: Trump's border czar, Tom Homan, says about 14,000 immigrants have been arrested in the three-plus weeks since President Trump took office.

• One possible reason Trump's arrest rate isn't matching Biden's: The publicity surrounding the new president's tough talk on immigration has fueled a dramatic dip in the number of people trying to enter the U.S. illegally on the southern border.
• Homan said this week that illegal border crossings have dropped 92% since Trump took office Jan. 20.

The big picture: The Trump administration, through social media posts, has suggested U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrested about 8,500 immigrants suspected of being in the country illegally during Trump's first two weeks in office.

• But Trump's team has stopped giving daily ICE updates since Feb. 4. The administration also isn't releasing details on arrests by Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agents.

By the numbers: ICE arrested more than 7,500 immigrants in November, while the CBP arrested more than 13,500 that month as waves of immigrants tried to cross the border, according to federal data collected by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC).

• TRAC collects immigration data via Open Records Act requests.
• A total of 21,130 people arrested by the agencies were booked into detention sites across the country in November, the data show.

The intrigue: Homan told WABC radio in New York on Tuesday that of the 14,000 or so immigrants arrested since Trump took office, the "vast majority have criminal histories."

• He did not offer any details.

Tricia McLaughlin, assistant secretary for public affairs at the Department of Homeland Security, said Homan's arrest estimate was just for those done by ICE, though he didn't make that distinction.

• She didn't provide information about the arrest breakdown between ICE and CBP. People arrested by either agency eventually are held at ICE detention sites, where space is nearing capacity.
• The White House declined to comment.

Reality check: Federal numbers in recent years have shown that less than 1% of people with deportation orders had been convicted of dangerous crimes.

• About 60% of the 39,152 people held in ICE detention as of Dec. 29 had no criminal record, according to TRAC.
• The Trump administration has said it considers every arrestee who's in the U.S. without authorization to be a criminal, but just being in the country illegally is a civil violation — not a criminal one — under the law.

Between the lines: Trump's administration has accelerated immigration enforcement in the nation's interior, with ICE raids in cities and towns away from the U.S.-Mexico border.

• Trump's immigration crackdown isn't just about making arrests. It's about choreography, photo ops, wardrobe changes and tough talk — all designed to discourage undocumented people from wanting to be in the U.S.

President Trump's vow to deport "millions and millions" of unauthorized immigrants is meeting harsh reality — already stretching the limits of the government's resources, less than four weeks into the new administration.

Why it matters: A lack of funds, detention space, officers and infrastructure to handle arrested immigrants is frustrating many involved in the effort — and made goals such as 1 million deportations this year seem unrealistic.

Zoom in: That urgency led the White House to ask Congress for an immediate infusion of $175 billion to help Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) acquire more detention space, boost staff and address other needs.

• "At the end of the day, we've gotta just spend money," Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) said in a brief interview at the White House. "Unfortunately the American taxpayers are going to have to pay the bill on this."

Driving the news: ICE agents and cooperating agencies say they're arresting 600 to 1,100 people a day, according to disclosures from the White House and ICE on X.

• That would put the administration on track to arrest roughly 25,000 immigrants in Trump's first month of office — far off the reach-goal of deporting 1 million a year that Vice President Vance pitched on the campaign trail.

Since Trump took office Jan. 20, a lack of detention space has led to more than 460 arrestees being freed under the "catch and release" program, in which they agree to be monitored and return for their immigration court hearings.

• "The system generally wasn't created to deport so many people, to deport millions of people," said Adriel D. Orozco, senior policy counsel at the American Immigration Council.
• The White House and the Department of Homeland Security did not respond to requests for comment.

Here are the biggest obstacles to Trump's mass deportation plan — a huge undertaking that will involve remaking ICE, a historically underfunded agency:

1. Detention space: Border czar Tom Homan wants to increase detention space to 100,000 beds — more than double the capacity of ICE detention units, which hold about 41,500 people a day and are nearly at capacity.

• Doubling capacity will involve private contractors, other parts of the U.S. government and local jails. Trump's team also has struck agreements with foreign governments to create more space.
• The overall strategy includes a plan to eventually hold up to 30,000 detainees at the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

Officials with CoreCivic, a private prison company that runs 12 facilities with contracts to provide detention space for ICE across the U.S., said on an earnings call Tuesday it has presented the agency with a proposal to provide access to 28,000 more beds. Its leadership is in touch with Trump's team daily, the company said.

2. A new messaging problem: The White House has relished promoting its arrests and raids in the media, a strategy partly aimed at encouraging undocumented immigrants to "self-deport" — leave the U.S. on their own.

• But now Homan says all that publicity may be hindering ICE raids.
• "It's all about operational security," Homan said. "We may have to stop the media ride-alongs because — I'm not pointing the finger at them — but the less people that know about these operations, the safer it is for our agents."
• The White House hasn't released a daily arrest update since Feb. 4. It reported 815 arrests that day. Homan and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem appear frequently on cable news outlets, however.

3. Staffing: Significantly more law enforcement officers are needed to carry out the arrest and detention operations Trump wants.

• The American Immigration Council projects that to arrest 1 million people a year, ICE would need 30,000 new officers and staff. The study estimates that would cost $7 billion a year.
• ICE and the DHS investigations unit have put out a contract request to help them hire more staff.

4. Backlogged courts: The current immigration court backlog involves more than 3.5 million active cases — a total that increased significantly under the Biden administration, as waves of people tried to claim asylum at the southern border.

• People can file for asylum within a year of arriving in the U.S., even if they entered without permission.
• The immigration court system needs more judges to cut into the backlog, which at the current pace would take about four years to resolve.

5. Reluctant partners: Trump's team struck deals with Venezuela, India and El Salvador for them to accept deportation flights and repatriate its citizens.

• But many other countries are refusing to accept the return of their own citizens, including China, Cuba and Russia. They're referred to as recalcitrant countries.
• The administration can withhold visas to such countries — as Trump almost did with Colombia — but it hasn't used this leverage yet.

Donald Trump's administration has used the "catch and release" program to free 461 undocumented immigrants from custody since he took office, partly because of limited detention space in U.S. immigration facilities, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: During his campaign Trump repeatedly criticized the Biden administration's use of "catch and release," and last month he set plans to end the practice.

• But for now it remains part of Trump's immigration enforcement strategy, as he pushes agents to round up immigrants for mass deportations at a time when detention facilities are nearly full.
• Under "catch and release," nonviolent undocumented immigrants who've been arrested by U.S. agents are freed after agreeing to return for their cases to be heard by an immigration court.
• The immigrants usually are given wristbands or ankle monitors, or are told to check in by telephone, to allow authorities to keep track of them until their court dates.

Zoom in: The released immigrants make up less than 6% of the roughly 8,000 undocumented people arrested since Jan. 21, Tricia McLaughlin, assistant secretary for public affairs at the Department of Homeland Security, said in an emailed statement to Axios.

• "They do not have final deportation orders and are likely contesting their immigration status," she said.
• McLaughlin said several factors can determine whether an arrested immigrant is released. They include a lack of detention space for women detainees, whether a detainee is likely to be deported anytime soon, and humanitarian considerations.

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents have been arresting a "significant number" of "criminal" immigrants who "require greater detention capacity," McLaughlin said.

• She added that ICE is looking to Congress for more funding to expand partnerships with local law enforcement and is working to review case files more quickly to deport those with "executable final orders of removal."

Zoom out: Immigration detention facilities in the U.S. hold about 41,500 people per day, on average. Trump has vowed to deport "millions" of unauthorized immigrants, and his administration wants to double the immigration system's detention capacity .

• The administration expects to build new facilities, but more immediately is rushing to line up detention agreements with sheriff's offices and beyond the U.S. mainland.
• Trump signed an executive order expanding migrant detention units at the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. The Pentagon has sent hundreds of service members to the base to support the effort to house detained immigrants linked to crimes.
• On Tuesday, 10 Venezuelan nationals who officials said are members of the Tren de Aragua gang were sent to Guantanamo Bay on a military plane.

Another large military flight — carrying carrying men, women and families back to their native India — left the U.S. on Wednesday. DHS did not give a specific breakdown of those returned to India but said that such large flights typically carry 100 people.

• The Trump administration also has an agreement with Venezuela to accept its citizens deported from the U.S. And El Salvador recently agreed to accept criminals and detainees of any nationality — including Americans, which has raised legal concerns.
• Trump's border czar, Tom Homan, asked for more bed rentals from leaders at the National Sheriffs' Association meeting during its convention in Washington last weekend.
• The sheriffs asked Homan to make it easier for them to partner with ICE under formal agreements, which require additional training for local departments. The sheriffs also asked for more clarity on procedures for holding people ICE wants to detain.

Donald Trump's immigration crackdown isn't just about making arrests. It's about choreography, photo ops, wardrobe changes and tough talk — all designed to discourage undocumented people from wanting to be in the U.S.

Why it matters: The underbelly of Trump's immigration strategy is, as one White House official told Axios, "the visuals" — showing force and creating a sense of urgency through viral videos and photos of top officials at the border and on raids.

Zoom in: That's why a casually dressed Pete Hegseth, Trump's new defense secretary, traveled to El Paso on Monday to meet with some of the 1,500 active-duty troops deployed to the southern border by a Trump executive order.

• In recent days the Department of Homeland Security touted DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, dressed like an ICE agent, joined a raid in New York City.
• On Sunday, Noem posted a video of herself on X, riding horseback with Border Patrol agents in the Southwest and wearing an olive green Border Patrol jacket and a cowboy hat. The post was praised by MAGA loyalists — and mocked by critics who called Noem's appearance "cosplay."
• Trump-supporting celebrities have gotten into the action as well. "Dr. Phil" McGraw embedded with ICE agents and border czar Tom Homan in a Chicago immigration raid, boosting media coverage (and drawing ridicule on "The Daily Show.")
• The White House's feed on X, meanwhile, is amplifying images of military airplanes ready to deport illegal immigrants. In the first week, it touted the number of deportations and featured mugshots of "the worst" criminals who were being expelled.

The big picture: Trump's team figures that the more undocumented immigrants who see such images and decide not to try entering the U.S. — or who "self-deport" without being arrested — the better.

• Beyond the U.S., the White House's messaging is aimed not just at discouraging migrants, but also smugglers and human traffickers.
• "The visuals are important," the White House official said, noting that the voter anger that helped get Trump elected was driven partly by "the visuals of hordes of people overwhelming [the] Border Patrol and storming the border."
• "We've been elected on a campaign promise to fix the border, and it would be foolish of us to sit back and just let the media tell our story."

Between the lines: It's not totally clear how much the pace of immigration arrests has picked up under Trump compared to the last days of the Biden administration.

• What is clear is that the arrests made since Trump took office two weeks ago have received more attention, even in the same cities.

One example: ICE agents, during a week-long surge of raids in Newark, N.J., in December, arrested 33 noncitizens, including a Mexican national convicted of sexual assault of a minor teen and a Brazil national convicted of murder. Those arrests got little attention.

• During Trump's first week in office, an ICE raid of a Newark seafood restaurant that netted three people drew international attention and condemnation from Newark Mayor Ras Baraka.
• One U.S. citizen — a Puerto Rican who was a military veteran — allegedly was harassed by federal agents, the mayor and the restaurant owner said.

Zoom out: The White House press office is regularly promoting the arrests of migrants with criminal records from the briefing room and on its official X page.

• ICE hit a high under Trump of more than 1,000 daily arrests on Jan. 27, according to an X post. The White House hasn't disclosed how many of those arrested have criminal backgrounds or are simply unauthorized to be in the U.S., which is only a civil offense.
• Trump's team has said it considers all undocumented immigrants to be criminals.
• "I know the last administration didn't see it that way, so it's a big culture shift in our nation to view someone who breaks our immigration laws as a criminal, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said last week.
• "But that's exactly what they are."

President Trump and many Republicans are steadfastly defending Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Trump's pick to lead Health and Human Services. But some MAGA loyalists aren't convinced — they're wary of the influence of Kennedy's closest adviser, a longtime Democratic activist.

Driving the news: For weeks, conservative-leaning groups, activists and policy groups have been privately sharing links to Kennedy aide Stefanie Spear's past social media and blog posts that show her support for Democratic causes, three people familiar with the messages tell Axios.

• Spear has worked closely with Kennedy, a former Democrat, for several years. They've known each other for more than a decade, drawn together by their activism on environmental issues and skepticism about vaccines.
• The chatter among her conservative critics casts Spear — who functions as Kennedy's executive assistant, scheduler and manager — as a potential gatekeeper to Kennedy.
• "This woman just has every appearance of being a disaster from a conservative perspective," one person from a conservative-leaning organization told Axios.

What they're saying: Spear did not respond to several requests for comment.

• A spokesperson for Kennedy said Spear's past Democratic activism hasn't been an issue and that she's "a team player," not an obstacle.
• "She is crucial in fulfilling the promise of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and President Trump to Make America Healthy Again and end the chronic disease epidemic," spokesperson Katie Miller said in a text.

Zoom in: Even so, Trump's team has decided that Spear would not be Kennedy's chief of staff at HHS, if he's confirmed by the Senate, according to the Wall Street Journal.

• Instead, Spear is in line to be deputy chief of staff and senior counsel to the HHS secretary. Kennedy's chief of staff would be Heather Flick, a department veteran who served in Trump's first term.

Catch up quick: Spear was the traveling press secretary and principal communications staffer on Kennedy's long-shot presidential campaign.

• Kennedy began his campaign as a Democrat, then ran as an independent before dropping out and endorsing Trump.
• Spear is "a safety blanket for Bobby," said one person familiar with their relationship.
• She's one of the few former Kennedy campaign staffers being considered for a role in the new administration.

State of play: Kennedy has just finished two days of of often-heated confirmation hearings before separate Senate's committees. Spear was among the Kennedy supporters at the hearings.

• Kennedy received pushback from several senators for his past statements questioning vaccine safety, including childhood inoculations for polio and measles.
• Among those expressing skepticism about Kennedy was Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), chair of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. Cassidy said he wasn't sure he could back an HHS nominee who "spent decades criticizing vaccines, and who's financially vested in finding fault with vaccines."
• Cassidy is also on the Senate Finance Committee, which also questioned Kennedy. That panel is scheduled to vote on Kennedy's confirmation Tuesday.

President Trump has been threatening friend and foe alike with the foreign policy equivalent of a two-by-four. Colombia's president found that out the hard way over the weekend when he tried to stop U.S. military flights carrying deportees back to Colombia.

• "F--k around and find out," one top White House official summed up Monday.

Why it matters: Trump's world view revolves around showing strength, a carrot-and-stick approach that usually is short on rewards and long on threats. But it's showing some results — at least in Latin America, where Trump is determined to boost U.S. influence.

• On Sunday, after Trump threatened crushing tariffs and travel restrictions, Colombian President Gustavo Petro buckled and agreed to accept his country's nationals deported from the U.S.
• "Other countries began reaching out after that" to discuss accepting deportees, the White House official, who wasn't authorized to speak on the record, said without elaborating. "There is more of a willingness to take back their citizens and to express that."

Driving the news: El Salvador's president, Nayib Bukele, opted for the carrots. Three days before Trump's row with Petro, Bukele tentatively agreed with Trump to accept his citizens who are deported from the U.S., as well as Tren de Aragua gang members originally from Venezuela.

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio's first foreign visit, coming soon, will be to El Salvador.
• Trump "means what he says, and I think any nation that doesn't believe that is making very poor judgment," said Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), who served in Trump's first administration.

Reality check: One risk of swinging the two-by-four too often is that it disillusions allies.

• Trump's threat to buy Greenland from an unwilling Denmark, a U.S. ally, has rattled the Danes and the European Union, whose top general this week proposed sending troops to the island.
• It also has bothered some U.S. lawmakers.
• "Americans must view Greenland as an ally, not an asset. Open for business, but not for sale," Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said Monday.
• Trump also is rattling sabers at another U.S. ally, Panama, over the influence of China-controlled companies at the Panama Canal.

Zoom out: Trump wants to showcase a new, aggressive foreign policy that hearkens back to the Monroe Doctrine and clearly establishes the Western Hemisphere as a China- and Russia-free zone. It's what makes him so focused on Cuba and Venezuela.

• Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, Latin America envoy Mauricio Claver-Carone and Trump's choice for ambassador to Panama, Kevin Cabrera, are all anti-leftist foreign policy hardliners.

Zoom in: Waltz frequently travels with the president and was with him when Petro, at 3:41 a.m. Sunday, posted on X that he would "deny" U.S. military flights of deportees to Colombia.

• Trump was at his Doral resort near Miami, ahead of a meeting of House Republicans there. The resort is about a 10-minute drive from Rubio's home. Rubio hustled over, met with Waltz, and hammered out the outlines for a response to Petro.
• "They got a plan. They presented to the president. It was done by lunch," said a source familiar with the conversations.
• "Nat Sec at the speed of social media," a White House official added.

Between the lines: Petro's threats and capitulation almost seemed scripted for Trump ahead of the congressional GOP meeting in the Miami area where there's a huge anti-Petro Colombian-American community.

• Cuban-American hardliners like Reps. Mario Diaz Balart and Carlos Gimenez hail from Miami. They held a bilingual press conference in Doral event and a lit into Petro in English and Spanish.
• Other Republicans similarly praised Trump, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, who noted that Petro's capitulation included flying Colombians back at his taxpayers' expense.

"He did an about-face very quickly," Johnson told reporters. "And if he wants to send his own presidential plane to pick up his folks, we welcome that. It saves the American taxpayers money."

The intrigue: Trump's hardball immigration agenda isn't causing friction with some U.S. allies and trading partners.

• Even before Colombia was threatened with new tariffs, India's foreign ministry told Rubio it would accept thousands of Indians living illegally in the U.S., according to a press call with India's minister of foreign affairs.
• Before Trump took office, the Philippines said it would help repatriate migrant workers who have overstayed their visas in the U.S. with a financial assistance fund.

President Trump's executive orders on immigration signal a new strategy that appears aimed at boosting legal arguments for travel bans, emergency declarations and other restrictions.

Why it matters: That's the consensus among immigrant rights advocates who see Trump's strategy to dramatically restrict immigration as far more sophisticated — and potentially more successful — than his first-term efforts.

The big picture: Several of the executive orders require reports within 30 to 90 days that could used to justify new restrictions not just on immigrants, but also on foreigners who enter the U.S. as visitors or refugees.

• These reports could be used in court to document conditions the administration would cite in justifying future actions — such as country-specific travel bans, and long-term restrictions on asylum seekers, refugees or visa applicants.

One of Trump's orders called for a report into the validity of medical vetting of people from various countries. That report could set up a medical- or disease-related justification for denying entry to people from certain nations — like what was used to limit entries during the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Another report Trump demanded on the southern border could set a justification for a war-time response there, potentially invoking the only thrice-used Alien Enemies Act.
• That could allow Trump to deport those who are from an "enemy" nation.

What they're saying: "Trying to read between the lines, it does seem to lead to creating the premise for a broad travel ban that holds up in court," unlike the first Trump administration's attempted ban on those from Muslim nations, said Doris Meissner of the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute.

Zoom Out: Trump previewed his immigration strategy on the campaign trail, but advocates say his plan for executing it — orchestrated by top Trump aide Stephen Miller — is more targeted and strategic.

• "What we're seeing here is an even more premeditated and thought-out blueprint for how to upend the U.S, immigration system by Trump and his advisers," said Nayna Gupta, policy director at the American Immigration Council.

Immigrant advocates say it's too early to act on much of what they believe Trump has planned, but they're closely watching how his policies unfold with potential legal challenges in mind.

• "We just have to wait to see how it's how it's implemented," said Aarthi Kohli, executive director of the Asian Law Center.
• Groups already have won a temporary injunction on Trump's order seeking to overturn birthright citizenship, a right guaranteed by the U.S. Constution's 14th Amendment.
• Legal analysts say that push by Trump has virtually no chance of succeeding in court or in Congress.

Immigrants and advocacy groups nationwide are scrambling to prepare for the waves of raids President Trump has promised under his plan to deport millions of people unauthorized to stay in the U.S.

Why it matters: Confusion and persistent rumors about how the raids will be carried out — and what will happen to those detained by immigration agents — are leading some anxious immigrants to refuse to go to work or send their children to schools, the groups say.

• Trump's executive orders that began laying the groundwork for his mass deportations reversed several longstanding policies. Immigration officials now can raid churches, schools and hospitals to arrest undocumented immigrants.

State of play: Lawrence Benito, executive director of the Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights, said his group received 400 calls to its hot line on Monday alone, compared to 800 calls in January before Trump's inauguration.

• The New Mexico-based immigrant rights advocacy group Somos Un Pueblo Unido said it's launching a "Know Your Rights" campaign around the state to help immigrants.
• Other groups are handing out cards to immigrants that advise them to not allow federal agents into their homes without a warrant. Some groups are preparing an army of lawyers to jump into immigration cases.

The intrigue: Denver's public schools are among several districts bracing for possible immigration raids on students. They've directed principals to lock down campuses if federal immigration agents come knocking.

• Some Chicago restaurants are keeping I-9 documents and other worker verification paperwork ready in case of visits by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents, Eater reports.
• Chicago's police department said in a statement it "will not assist or intervene in civil immigration enforcement," but "as always, we will continue to enforce the law if a crime occurs."
• Police in several other cities are following similar policies.

Trump officials have designated Chicago and other Democrat-run cities as targets of the deportation plan.

• "Unfortunately, part of the goal of this administration is to try to use fear tactics [so] that people go into hiding and maybe people would be deterred and actually leave the country," Greg Chen of the American Immigration Lawyers Association told reporters Tuesday.

Zoom in: Trump advisers initially indicated that ICE would first focus on noncitizens convicted of crimes.

• But the overall plan to crack down on illegal immigration remains unclear — and scattered reports of ICE agents raiding big-city restaurants have many immigrant communities, and business owners, on edge.

Between the lines: Trump has said he favors using the military to help round up immigrants — a move that civil liberties advocates warn would be unlawful.

• The advocates have begun a series of lawsuits fighting Trump's plans, specifically against his order to end birthright citizenship.
• Officials in 22 states have gone to court to challenge Trump's push to end birthright citizenship — a right guaranteed by the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. An estimated 300,000 babies are born to undocumented parents in the U.S. each year.

Legal specialists say Trump's executive orders on immigration suggest that the president's team is better prepared for challenges to its crackdown on immigration than Trump's first administration was.

• They say several of the orders are written in a way that could insulate the administration from certain legal tactics challenging Trump's plans.
• Some orders, for example, call for a study of an issue and reports to be completed before new actions are taken. The slower approach could build a stronger legal basis for future court decisions.
• "What we're seeing with a second Trump administration is already a recognition of some of the experience of the first Trump administration," Doris Meissner of the Migration Policy Institute told reporters.
• "You can see just by the number of actions that have been prepared and signed within 24 hours how much work and effort behind the scenes has been placed on these executive orders."

The other side: Harrison Fields, White House principal deputy press secretary, tells Axios that those trying to keep undocumented immigrants in the U.S. are swimming "against the tide."

• "Radical leftists can ... reject the overwhelming will of the people, or they can get on board and work with President Trump to advance his wildly popular agenda," Fields said.
• "These lawsuits are nothing more than an extension of the left's resistance — and the Trump administration is ready to face them in court."

The Trump administration, seeking to stamp out federal diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) programs, is calling on government employees to snitch on any colleagues that continue to follow such policies.

Driving the news: In a series of form letters sent to government departments Wednesday, President Trump's acting agency chiefs threatened "adverse consequences" for anyone still doing work related to DEI initiatives in defiance of a Trump executive order.

• The letters followed an order from the new administration directing agencies to close their DEI offices and place those staffers on paid leave by 5pm ET Wednesday, in advance of being laid off.

The big picture: DEI guidelines — which in one way or another have been part of the U.S. government's hiring practices for six decades to try to ensure equality and counter generations of racial bias — were targeted by Trump during the presidential campaign.

• Trump and many Republicans maintain that DEI programs lower hiring standards and promote bias against whites, among other things.

Zoom in: The snitch letters sent to employees of the departments of Homeland Security and Veterans Affairs, NASA and other agencies. The letters told employees they have 10 days to report anyone continuing to do DEI work.

• The letters asks people to consider recent "contract description or personnel position" changes that may be referring to DEI work.
• "We are aware of efforts by some in government to disguise these programs by using coded or imprecise language," the letters to DHS and VA staffers say.
• "These programs divided Americans by race, wasted taxpayer dollars, and resulted in shameful discrimination," the letters said.

Catch up quick: Besides signing an executive order rolling back DEI programs, Trump put a freeze on federal hiring and is moving to strip thousands of civil servants of their employment protections.

• The new administration also is leaning into loyalty tests. Roughly 160 National Security Council career officials have been sidelined amid loyalty screenings.

Hours after being sworn in as president for a second time, President Trump signed executive orders declaring a national emergency on the U.S.-Mexico border and calling for more barriers as part of an aggressive crackdown on undocumented immigrants.

Why it matters: Some of Trump's most audacious plans — which include deporting millions of immigrants and ending birthright citizenship — won't happen immediately since they are certain to draw legal challenges.

• But Trump's emergency declaration — along with designating Mexican cartels as a terrorism threat — clears the way for using the military to help combat illegal immigration, breaking historical policies for how U.S. forces have been used in the homeland.

Zoom in: Trump sought to lay the groundwork for what he calls a "common sense" reworking of U.S. immigration policy. Executive orders call for:

• Designating cartels and gangs such as MS-13 and Tren de Aragua, as foreign terrorist organizations, and use the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to use federal and state law enforcement to go after those connected to those groups within the U.S.
• Reinstating the "Remain in Mexico" policy for asylum seekers at the U.S.-Mexico border, ending a policy in which they were released into the U.S. while their cases were being considered by immigration courts.
• Seeking to end "birthright citizenship" for those born to undocumented immigrants — a concept promised by the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
• Suspending refugee resettlements for four months and expedite removal of those who have sought asylum but don't meet the requirements.
• Sending troops to the southern border, including the National Guard.

The big picture: The mass deportation Trump seeks will require highly organized raids, a building program for new detention centers, more immigration judges and a steady stream of flights to transport people out of the U.S.

• The large-scale operation will also require a combination of executive authority, congressional action and — almost certainly — Supreme Court backing. Republicans control both chambers of Congress, and the high court has a conservative super majority.
• The plans will also require more funding for carrying out than currently allocated.
• Local and state police will need to assist with raids. GOP-led states have said they will help, while Democratic-controlled states have said they will not.

Reality check: The Wong Kim Ark case of 1898 by the Supreme Court affirmed that any American-born person was a U.S. citizen as defined by the 14th Amendment.

• The case established the Birthright Citizenship clause and led to the dramatic demographic transformation of the U.S.
• U.S.-born children and grandchildren of immigrants from Asia and Latin America are among the nation's fastest-growing populations. They are expected to be the majority of the country by mid-century.

State of play: An estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants currently live in cities across the country.

• That's not counting their U.S.-born children (who are U.S. citizens) and millions of other migrants trying to enter the U.S. in the future.
• It's also not counting the 1.2 million immigrants living in the U.S. who are either receiving or eligible for Temporary Protected Status — a designation Trump limited in his first term and has promised to revoke for Haitians in his second.

The U.S. immigration system's backlog of 3.7 million court cases will take four years to resolve at the current pace — but that could balloon to 16 years under Trump's mass deportation plan, according to an Axios analysis late last year.

• Adding 11 million undocumented immigrants would push the backlog review to 2040 at the current pace. That's without an infusion of new immigration judges or the erasure of due process for many cases.
• U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement deported more than 271,000 people last fiscal year — the most in nearly a decade, according to the agency's annual report released in December.
• At that record pace, it would take around four decades to deport all the 11 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S. today.

Zoom in: The new Trump administration seeks to upend the whole deportation process and could sign legislation from a GOP-controlled Congress that may allow him to bypass current laws.

• Stephen Miller, the White House's deputy chief of staff for policy, met with members of Congress in January to share ideas on how to overcome a filibuster in the U.S. Senate on enforcement laws and force Democrats to vote on bipartisan measures.
• During a meeting with senators, Miller walked through the Day 1 immigration executive orders. That included the reinstatement of pandemic-era Title 42, which allows rapid expulsion of migrants at the border.

Between the lines: An Axios-Ipsos poll released Sunday found that 66% of Americans support deporting immigrants who are in the country illegally.

• That same poll found that support nearly dropped in half when asked about tactics for deportation like active duty military to find and detain undocumented immigrants or separating families.

What we're watching: The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) is vowing to challenge any Trump executive order on immigration the group feels violates the Constitution and human rights.

• Those court challenges would slow down any deportation operation.
• The ACLU brought more than 400 cases against the first Trump administration as it fought to stop Trump's Muslim travel ban and fight allegations of abuse at immigration detention centers.

Editor's note: This article has been updated to reflect President Trump's signing of executive orders.

Donald Trump's second presidency is already off to a blazing start — partly from how aggressively he's seized power, but also because his rival, President Biden, has given Trump a head start on realizing some of his big campaign promises.

Why it matters: The most consequential pre-presidency in recent U.S. history has left Trump uniquely positioned to quickly impose his plans to boost executive power, reshape foreign policy, deport millions of undocumented immigrants and juice the economy.

• Trump's also ignited a rightward tilt of corporate America, the removal of social media speech guardrails and significant geopolitical shifts.

Zoom in: This week, Biden's White House hailed a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal — one that was made possible partly by Trump's imminent arrival.

• Biden's team worked for months to secure peace, but Israel was willing to close the deal only with Trump's backing, Axios' Barak Ravid reported.

Trump has sent ripples through several countries with his -pre-inauguration musings on foreign policy.

• Justin Trudeau's resignation was triggered in part by divisions within Canada's government over how to respond to Trump's 25% tariff threat.
• The Overton window on U.S. expansionism quickly shifted as Trump mused about taking back the Panama Canal, claiming Greenland and invading Mexico, prompting frazzled responses from foreign leaders.
• Iran put a retaliation plan against Israel on the back burner, signaling it wants to negotiate a new nuclear deal with Trump.

The Trump effect has hit tech at a head-spinning pace.

• The incoming president is trying to resuscitate TikTok, signaling that he'll sign an executive order Monday to keep the social media app alive — at least temporarily.
• In a matter of weeks, Meta morphed into a Trump-hugging, MAGA-aligned fount of "masculine energy."
• The company's blitz of moves included loosening speech restrictions, dropping DEI efforts, appointing the UFC's Dana White to its board and putting Republican Joel Kaplan in its chief public affairs role. CEO Mark Zuckerberg will be at Trump's inauguration today.

These effects are cascading through Corporate America.

• Several of the country's biggest companies have unwound their DEI efforts, with many others talking about the topic less.
• Top executives, including Zuckerberg, sense a new permission structure to speak their minds, unshackled.

Zoom out: Trump has cast Biden as weak, but on some policy fronts — namely immigration and the economy — Biden is leaving Trump a stronger hand than the Republican admits.

• As Biden departs, border crossings are down, deportations are up and the economy is humming along, with inflation trending down.

State of play: Trump enters office with plans to deport millions of immigrants at a time when U.S. immigration courts already are on pace to decide record numbers of deportation cases — and order the most removals in five years — under Biden's push to fast-track asylum decisions.

• Immigration courts are predicted to rule on 852,000 deportation cases from Oct. 1, 2024, to Sept. 30, 2025, according to an analysis of data by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) at Syracuse University.
• If that pace continues, immigration judges will rule on more deportation cases in 2025 than in any previous year on record.

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) deported more than 271,000 people last fiscal year — a 90% increase from 2023, the most in nearly a decade and more than Trump did in any year of his first term.

Illegal border crossings also have declined steadily in 2024 after a sharp drop early in the year, according to Department of Homeland Security data obtained by USA Today and CBS News.

• Documents obtained by the ACLU show that ICE under Biden has considered proposals to expand its immigration detention capacity in at least eight states.
• Those proposals could give Trump a running start for a key part of his mass-deportation plan.

On the economy, encouraging consumer price index reports indicate inflation is relenting, a dramatic improvement from 2022 — although food and energy costs remain relatively high.

• Jobs reports also have been strong under Biden, whose post-pandemic recovery added more jobs in a single four-year term than Presidents Bush and Obama (two terms each) and Trump's first term.
• A majority of Americans are already giving Trump credit for these economic improvements, according to an Axios/Harris poll. A similar number of respondents, roughly 55%, said they were optimistic about the government's ability to manage the economy and lower prices.

Trump's challenge in the Middle East will be to help maintain the fragile peace established in Biden's hostage and ceasefire deal, which paused 15 months of war in Gaza.

• Biden's team dismisses the notion that Trump's impending return helped clinch the deal. Asked by reporters whether Trump should get credit, Biden said: "Is that a joke?"

Big corporate donors to President-elect Trump's inaugural committee could soon find themselves in the crosshairs of his trade policy.

Why it matters: Ford, General Motors, Stellantis, Stanley Black & Decker and Apple's Tim Cook all have written seven-figure checks for Trump's inauguration, which is on track to outraise his first ceremony in 2017 and President Biden's in 2021.

• They've done so even though Trump's plan for new tariffs could seriously disrupt their bottom lines.

Zoom in: It's not clear what tariffs Trump will apply, on what goods, and when.

• But he's made a range of proposals that he says would protect U.S. businesses and create jobs — even as economists, businesses and others warn that new tariffs would make goods more expensive for consumers, juicing inflation.
• In one campaign rally, Trump proposed tariffs on Mexico of 100% to 400%. More recently he's touted a 25% tariff on all goods from Mexico and Canada. He's also floated tariffs of up to 60% on products from China and a 10% or 20% universal tariff.
• Trump recently posted on Truth Social that he believes new tariffs will help pay for the corporate tax cuts he wants and his popular campaign pledge to eliminate taxes on tips.

What they're saying: Some companies that gave to Trump's inauguration and have manufacturing plants abroad aren't so sure.

• In an earnings call before the November election, Stanley Black & Decker CEO Donald Allen said it's "unlikely" that tariffs would bring more manufacturing back to the U.S.
• "It's just not cost-effective to do," said Allen, whose company has plants in the U.S., Mexico, China, Brazil and the U.K.
• Allen added that the company has been planning for potential new U.S. tariffs, and has plans to move production out of China.

Automakers are navigating the possibility of being hit on multiple fronts: Tariffs on parts and products from Asia were an expected burden, but Trump's talk of tariffs on Mexico could hinder plans for new manufacturing plants there.

• The "Big Three" — General Motors, Ford, Stellantis — and Toyota are donating $1 million each to Trump's inauguration. All have plants in Mexico.

On an earnings call in late October, Apple's Cook was asked about the impact of tariffs on his company, which does most of its manufacturing in China.

• "I'm going to punt on that one," Cook said.

Cook is personally donating to the inauguration — not Apple.

• During Trump's first administration, Cook leveraged his relationship with the president to successfully make the case for tariff exemptions for Apple's iPhones, iPads and MacBooks, the Wall Street Journal reported in 2019.

Between the lines: Trump won the 2024 election without much help from many corporate donors, though he did ride a wave of donations from several billionaires, including Elon Musk.

• Trump's campaign featured a mix of pro-business proposals and government-skeptical populism.
• "You can't ignore the symbolism of wanting to be engaged with Trump" by donating to the inauguration, said Republican strategist Alex Conant, a partner at Firehouse Strategies. But how these companies could be affected by new tariffs is "definitely" top of mind, he added.
• "There's going to be winners and losers," Conant said.

Michael Glassner, a former Trump senior adviser who's opening an "America First"-aligned lobbying firm, said the inauguration donations themselves won't impact Trump's policies.

• "Creating American jobs, that's the number-one factor," he said. "That's going to get you a seat at the table."