President Trump paused 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports covered by a North American trade pact until April 2.

Why it matters: It's the latest abrupt pivot in the Trump administration's trade policy, which is rattling businesses and consumers.

• Trump signed executive actions that said goods covered by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) — the deal negotiated in his first term — would get a temporary reprieve from tariffs.
• Most energy imports are not covered by the pact. Those goods will still be subject to 10% tariffs that took effect earlier this week, as will goods that face tariffs related to anti-dumping investigations.

The big picture: In the last month, the White House announced tariffs on incoming goods from Mexico and Canada that were later paused, imposed again and now paused once more.

• White House officials emphasized to reporters that the tariffs were implemented to push Canada and Mexico to choke the flow of fentanyl across the borders.

What they're saying: Commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said in a statement that the administration would still impose across-the-board reciprocal tariffs on April 2, actions that could impact Canada and Mexico.

• "Hopefully Mexico and Canada will have done a good enough job on fentanyl that this part of the conversation will be off the table and we will move just to reciprocal tariff conversation," Lutnick said.

The intrigue: The amendment adjusting the tariff plan acknowledges the potential damage of those levies to the auto industry, which trades parts across North American borders.

• The auto industry was the first to get a reprieve, just one day after the tariffs took effect.
• White House officials said the sector-specific pause that kicked off the broader tariff halt was not a result of the negative reaction across the stock market.
• Rather officials said that the pause came after the Big 3 automakers — Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis — committed to moving supply chains to the U.S.

Between the lines: The stock market has bounced up and down in recent days in response to reports about tariffs — generally falling on news of tariffs being imposed and rising on any headline about a pullback.

• But that pattern broke Thursday. Stocks not only remained in the red, but fell further after Trump posted to Truth Social about a pause.
• The S&P 500 closed down 1.8%.

What to watch: There is growing evidence that tariff uncertainty might jolt the global economy. Consumers have ramped up inflation expectations in the wake of tariffs.

• "The fact that the stock market goes up or down a half percent on any given day is not the driving force of our outcomes," Lutnick said in a statement.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with closing stock market statistics.

After a two-month honeymoon, where the value of just about anything Trump-adjacent rose as he prepared to take office, markets have now soured on many "Trump trades."

Why it matters: At some point, the declines will test whether there's still a "Trump put," as in his first presidency — where Trump tended to swiftly reverse policies the market didn't like — or if Trump 2.0 really doesn't care as much about markets.

The big picture: The economy, as Axios's Courtenay Brown notes, faces a number of potholes, which are all sapping investor confidence.

• But the assets most closely tied to President Trump are falling faster than the broader market — some because hopes about his policies may have exceeded reality, others as consumers and investors sour on the activities of Trump advisors like Elon Musk.

By the numbers: Over the last month, shares of some of the most prominent Trump trade stocks have slumped.

• Peter Thiel's defense contractor Palantir is down 13%, Trump's own social media company Trump Media & Technology Group is down 26% and Musk's Tesla is down 29%.
• Other stocks that rose on hopes of future Trump action are falling on reality, too. Private prison operator GEO Group more than doubled after his election, but is down 10% in the last month.
• All are dramatically underperforming the S&P 500, which is weak too, down 3% over that period. In fact, of the world's major indices, it's one of the worst performers since early February.

The intrigue: It's not just stocks — other Trump trade assets are falling, too.

• "The first crypto president" has seen bitcoin fall 8% in the last month, even factoring in the huge rally he sparked last weekend by advancing the idea of a national crypto reserve.
• The Trump family's own meme coins are tanking, too — Official Trump is down 23% and Melania Meme is down 51%.

Zoom in: Not every Trump trade has gone entirely badly, in the administration's view.

• Yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds are about 14 basis points lower now than they were a month ago, precisely what the administration wants to see over the long term.

Yes, but: Yields aren't falling because things are great, they're falling because the market's nervous about economic growth. As Axios's Felix Salmon notes, recession fears are rising quickly, casting a shadow over markets.

What they're saying: "The tariffs alone aren't enough to hurt the economy in a noticeable way, but when you take tariffs, plus broader worries about the economy, and a Fed that still might take its time on lowering rates, that's when you start to wonder if the record highs in stocks from earlier this year were justified," writes Michael Landsberg, who manages $1 billion as chief investment officer at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management in Florida.

The bottom line: Buy the Trump transition, sell the Trump presidency has worked out relatively well for most investors so far, providing they can stomach what may come next.

The market's nerves were on full display Wednesday, as stocks whipsawed with every change in the narrative on the Trump administration's tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

Why it matters: Businesses, investors and consumers are all yearning for some clarity — instead they're being forced to endure a daily, if not hourly, drip of shifting information and conflicting priorities.

Catch up quick: It all started Monday, when President Trump promised tariffs were coming on Canada, Mexico and China. Stocks dropped.

• On Tuesday morning he imposed the tariffs, and stocks fell further.
• Late Tuesday, Commerce secretary Howard Lutnick suggested on the Fox Business Network that a tariff rollback could arrive on Wednesday. Stocks rallied.
• Wednesday morning, Lutnick told Bloomberg TV any rollback might target certain sectors, in a limited way and for a limited time. Stocks sold off again, as investors stood by for the actual news to come out.
• Wednesday afternoon, Bloomberg reported a possible one-month pause on the tariffs for automakers, who are heavily at risk from the new levies. Stocks quickly popped back into positive territory.

The big picture: Fears of a global trade war have weighed heavily on financial markets, after the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs against its two largest trading partners.

• The "Trump bump" that boosted stocks following his election has now been erased, with the S&P 500 lower at Tuesday's close than when he won last year.

What they're saying: "There are going to be tariffs, let's be clear, but what he's thinking about is which sections of the market that can maybe — maybe — he'll consider giving them relief until we get to, of course, April 2," Lutnick told Bloomberg TV.

• On April 2, the U.S. is expected to impose reciprocal tariffs on most countries. The size of those levies is still unclear.
• Trump and Lutnick have both said those tariffs will stack on top of any others imposed or coming.

Zoom in: The 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico (and increased 20% tariffs on China) are expected to significantly impact prices, and potentially stoke a resurgence of inflation.

• The Yale Budget Lab, after factoring in potential foreign retaliation and consumers switching to cheaper goods, still estimates the tariffs will cost the typical household $1,100 this year alone.
• Trump acknowledged in his address to Congress Tuesday that tariffs would cause "a little disturbance," a change in his long-stated position that tariffs don't cause prices to rise.

💭 Thought bubble, from Axios' Nathan Bomey: A tariff extension would give auto companies more time to move production to avoid or minimize the impact to their business.

• But meaningful changes in manufacturing plans would likely take much longer, meaning automakers and their suppliers remain deeply exposed to the increased duties.
• In the meantime, while the companies themselves sweat the tariffs, their workers seem to be all for them.

Editor's Note: This story has been updated throughout with the latest market reactions.

President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs Tuesday on America's largest trading partners, triggering a global trade war that promises to affect the wallets of everyday Americans.

Why it matters: After running — and winning — on a promise to curb inflation, Trump's trade war threatens to raise prices for everything from food and clothes to cars and computers.

• Some estimates suggest just Tuesday's tariffs alone could cost the average U.S. household $830 a year — and that's before you factor in the cost of anticipated retaliatory tariffs from Canada, China and Mexico.
• Already, the impacts are escalating — the map above, for example, was based on a 10% China tariff, which has now been raised to 20%.

Tariffs on the top U.S. import partners

Zoom out: More than 40% of all U.S. imports come from Mexico, Canada and China — over $1.3 trillion worth in 2024 alone, per Census data.

• The tariffs will affect big-ticket items like machinery and cars, but also consumer staples — everything from beer (more than 80% of U.S. imports come from Mexico) to oats (almost all U.S. imports come from Canada).

Tariffs as a regressive tax

Zoom in: Tariffs are generally regressive, in that they more heavily affect lower-income people who spend a greater share of their resources on goods, particularly necessities like food and fuel.

• As data from the Progressive Policy Institute shows, even before Trump's new levies this week, the existing U.S. tariff system already charged much higher rates for low-cost products than their luxury counterparts.

The China trade deficit

Between the lines: Tariffs, especially on China, do move the needle on trade a little, but over time it tends to rebound.

• The trade deficit with China has been more than $200 billion for 20 years now, and Chinese retaliatory tariffs will offset some of the benefit of the new duties Trump assessed.

Fentanyl realities

The intrigue: In assessing tariffs on Canada and Mexico in particular, Trump cited the flow of fentanyl across both borders.

Yes, but: As U.S. Customs and Border Protection data shows, over the last 40 months, fentanyl volume that's trafficked through Mexico is almost 1,000x the amount coming through Canada.

• In January 2025 alone, CBP stopped almost half a ton of fentanyl at the Mexican border — and about half an ounce at the Canadian border.

The next tariffs

What to watch: The tariffs are a long way from over — the White House has made clear more are coming, and they'll stack up on top of each other.

• Steel and aluminum tariffs come in next week, which will particularly impact automakers and beverage companies, among others.
• Reciprocal tariffs on April 2 could affect dozens of countries, with as-yet unknown impacts on almost everything the country imports.

Go deeper: Tariff worries, Trump cuts signal emerging economic growth risks

Editor's Note: This story has been updated with additional details on the tariff map.

Long-threatened tariffs on Canada and Mexico will go into effect Tuesday, as will increased levies on China, President Trump confirmed.

Why it matters: The tariffs are expected to trigger a trade war with the three largest U.S. trading partners, one that could raise prices for American consumers on a broad range of products.

Catch up quick: Canada and Mexico will each face 25% tariffs on their exports to the U.S., while Chinese exports will receive an additional 10% tariff on top of the 10% Trump already imposed earlier this year.

• The Canada and Mexico tariffs were imposed in early February but postponed for a month, pending negotiations. Trump said Monday that time was up.
• "No room left for Mexico or for Canada," Trump said in remarks at the White House.

By the numbers: Financial markets, which were already weaker on gloomy economic news tied to tariff fears, took a leg down after Trump confirmed the levies were coming.

• The S&P 500 was 2% lower in the last hour of trading, and at the lows of the day.
• The U.S. dollar surged, particularly against the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso.

Federal workers reportedly got another email Friday night asking them to document their weekly activities — though so far this time, there's been no explicit threat from Elon Musk they'll lose their jobs if they don't reply.

Why it matters: The Musk-led campaign to slash the federal workforce is accelerating, and the emails may end up being another way to justify cutting thousands of jobs.

Catch up quick: NPR and Government Executive reported the new emails went out late Friday night, asking workers to send five bullet points documenting their activities by 11:59 p.m. ET Monday night.

• The emails do not mention any consequences for failing to respond.
• "The President has made it clear that this is mandatory for the executive branch," Musk posted on X Saturday morning.

Flashback: A week ago, federal workers got a similar email, with a warning from Musk posted to X that failing to respond would be considered a resignation.

• The White House later clarified that responses were actually entirely voluntary, and many federal agencies told their employees not to answer.
• About half the federal workforce ultimately responded. Unions representing large chunks of that workforce sued, alleging the emails were illegal and that the Office of Personnel Management didn't have the authority to fire anyone who didn't answer.
• President Trump later said those who didn't answer were "on the bubble."
• Musk, for his part, described the email as a test to see if people were actually alive and working.

What we're watching: How agencies actually respond this time, and whether they order their employees to comply or not.

• The emails may have a different urgency now, given White House directives to agencies this week to prepare large-scale layoffs by March 13.

The U.S. will raise tariffs on China another 10% on Tuesday, citing the flow of illegal drugs into the country, President Trump said.

Why it matters: It's an escalation of the growing tariff war with one of the largest U.S. trading partners.

• The move comes against a backdrop of sinking consumer confidence, with more Americans expecting inflation to rise sharply (again) and citing tariffs as the reason why.

Driving the news: Trump announced the new tariffs in a Truth Social post.

• "Drugs are still pouring into our Country from Mexico and Canada at very high and unacceptable levels. A large percentage of these Drugs, much of them in the form of Fentanyl, are made in, and supplied by, China," Trump wrote.
• He also said scheduled 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico would go into effect Tuesday as well.
• There was some confusion Wednesday, based on comments Trump made at a Cabinet meeting, about whether those tariffs were still on or not.

By the numbers: Stocks dropped, bond yields rose, and the U.S. dollar surged after Trump's post Thursday.

Flashback: On the campaign trail, Trump talked of a 60% tariff on Chinese imports. Later, he suggested another 10% in tariffs on top of that, specifically because of the fentanyl issue.

• He ultimately held off on the larger levy, and imposed just the 10% tariff on China, earlier this month.
• At the same time he also announced the Canada and Mexico tariffs, but temporarily suspended those after both countries' leaders took initial steps to curb drug flows.

Editor's note: This is a breaking news story. Check back for updates.

Every quarter since ChatGPT's debut, Nvidia's earnings release has tied a knot in Silicon Valley's gut as investors wait for the numbers that will prolong the AI boom — or end it.

Why it matters: It's risky when any industry hangs so much of its hopes on one company's results, and Nvidia's enviable record of beating expectations means the slightest faltering could trigger a rout.

Driving the news: Today, markets await the chipmaker's first report since the arrival of DeepSeek's latest model last month cast a brief shadow over Nvidia's glow.

• DeepSeek rivaled the industry's most advanced AI models in a cheaply trained open-source package.
• That suggested the long-term demand for Nvidia's powerful but costly chips might be lower than projected.

Yes, but: Tech giants and startups in the U.S. and around the globe continue to pour hundreds of billions into AI infrastructure, new model training and data centers.

• All those projects keep orders flowing to Nvidia, which not only continues to lead the market for high-performing chips but also controls an ecosystem of supporting software tools that help AI makers optimize their products.

The big picture: There are three broader reasons to think that Nvidia could disappoint investors, if not this week then eventually.

1. The market is overconcentrated.

• The S&P 500's incredible run the last two years has been driven by gains in the so-called Magnificent 7 stocks, led by Nvidia (and also including Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Google, Amazon and Tesla).
• The Magnificent 7 accounted for more than half of the S&P's gains in 2023 and 2024, and now makes up more than 30% of the index's total market capitalization.
• By one key metric, the market was more concentrated in late 2024 than ever before — including during the dot-com bubble.

2. Demand for AI remains elusive.

• Nvidia's astonishing market ride rests on the assumption that AI will be the tech industry's next universal platform and that demand for AI products and services will be massive.
• So far, although ChatGPT and its rivals show healthy growth in usage, businesses and consumers haven't always embraced the tools. Real-world applications beyond a few specialized fields like software programming and customer support have yet to take off.
• If that doesn't change, the AI industry — along with its leading toolmaker, Nvidia — could face a sobering correction.

3. The AI chip market is uniquely vulnerable to geopolitical risk.

• That's because Nvidia only designs its chips. They're manufactured in Taiwan by TSMC.
• Taiwan has long faced the danger of an invasion or blockade by China, which has claimed the island for decades.
• Trump may have given Beijing reason to doubt he would step in to protect Taiwan. Among other remarks, Trump lamented during the campaign that Taiwan "wants protection" but "they stole our chip business."

The other side: Nvidia could keep outperforming expectations for a long time.

• A bad quarter for the company would also be a disaster for the market in the short term, but not necessarily for Nvidia's long-term outlook.
• Even if the AI bubble pops, the chipmaker would remain an incredibly valuable repository of intellectual property, design skills and research power.
• Short-term investors might take a bath, but the company would live to thrive again.

The bottom line: Silicon Valley's 75-year history has been one long cycle of booms and busts. With AI it shows every sign of continuing that pattern.

Apple on Monday morning announced plans to invest more than $500 billion in the U.S. and hire 20,000 people over the next four years, with expansion and construction planned from coast to coast.

• The new jobs will focus on research and development, silicon engineering, software development, and AI and machine learning.
• Apple plans to greatly expand chip and server manufacturing in the U.S., plus skills development for students and workers across the country.

Why it matters: Apple's announcement — which the company calls its "largest-ever spend commitment" — is precisely the kind of win President Trump has been looking for with his push to move manufacturing back to the U.S.

• Apple's new investment — much of it in red states — lets Trump say to other companies: Apple can do it. Why can't (or won't) you?

Apple CEO Tim Cook said in the announcement: "We are bullish on the future of American innovation, and we're proud to build on our longstanding U.S. investments with this $500 billion commitment to our country's future."

• "From doubling our Advanced Manufacturing Fund [from $5 billion to $10 billion], to building advanced technology in Texas, we're thrilled to expand our support for American manufacturing," Cook added. "And we'll keep working with people and companies across this country to help write an extraordinary new chapter in the history of American innovation."

The backstory: Trump met with Cook on Thursday in the Oval Office. Then Trump got so excited that he revealed the plans prematurely, saying on-camera while meeting with governors that Cook is "investing hundreds of billions of dollars. I hope he's announced it — I hope I didn't announce it, but what the hell? All I do is tell the truth — that's what he told me. Now he has to do it, right?"

• "He is investing hundreds of billions of dollars and others, too," Trump continued. "We will have a lot of chipmakers coming in, a lot of automakers coming in. They stopped two plants in Mexico that were ... starting construction. They just stopped them — they're going to build them here instead, because they don't want to pay the tariffs. Tariffs are amazing."

The big picture: Apple says it now supports nearly 3 million jobs across the U.S. through direct employment, work with suppliers and manufacturers, and developer jobs in the iOS app economy.

• Apple already works with thousands of suppliers across all 50 states, including 24 factories in 12 states.
• Apple's U.S. Advanced Manufacturing Fund has supported projects in 13 states, helping build local businesses and train workers.

Reality check: Apple made a similar announcement four years ago. In 2021, Apple committed $430 billion in U.S. investments and 20,000 new jobs across the country over five years — including a new campus in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, where development was paused last year.

• Apple says it has worked with North Carolina Gov. Josh Stein (D) and the North Carolina Department of Commerce to extend the project's timeline. Apple says it continues to grow its teams in the Tar Heel State — both at corporate offices in Raleigh and at a data center in Catawba, where the company has exceeded planned investments.

Zoom in: Here's a rundown of Apple's new expansion plans:

• Texas: New advanced AI server manufacturing factory near Houston. The 250,000-square-foot server manufacturing facility, slated to open in 2026, "will create thousands of jobs," Apple's announcement says. "Previously manufactured outside the U.S., the servers that will soon be assembled in Houston play a key role in powering Apple Intelligence, and are the foundation of Private Cloud Compute, which combines powerful AI processing with the most advanced security architecture ever deployed at scale for AI cloud computing. The servers bring together years of R&D by Apple engineers."
• Michigan: New Apple Manufacturing Academy in Detroit. "Apple engineers, along with experts from top universities such as Michigan State, will consult with small- and medium-sized businesses on implementing AI and smart manufacturing techniques," the announcement says. "The academy will also offer free in-person and online courses, with a skills development curriculum that teaches workers vital skills like project management and manufacturing process optimization."
•  California: Construction of a state-of-the-art campus is underway in Culver City, an entertainment enclave in L.A. County. In San Diego, a 4,000-member team will continue to grow.
• Arizona: Apple-designed Apple Silicon will be produced at TSMC's Fab 21 semiconductor plant in Phoenix.
• Washington state: Apple has doubled the number of team members in Seattle over the past three years to 2,400+, and will keep growing.
• Operations will expand in Mesa, Arizona ... Reno, Nevada ... Prineville, Oregon ... and Maiden, North Carolina (outside Charlotte).

Go deeper: Apple announcement.

Multiple agencies and unions have told federal workers not to respond to a new email demanding that they account for their work over the last week — despite Elon Musk's threat they'll lose their jobs if they don't.

Why it matters: As much as Musk's DOGE effort has disrupted the federal government so far, there's been relatively little tangible internal pushback — until now.

• The high-stakes stand-off could reshape the federal workforce over the next couple of days and will test the depth of President Trump's support for Musk's slash-and-burn campaign.

Catch up quick: Musk posted to X on Saturday afternoon that all federal employees would get an email asking them to explain what they'd accomplished this week.

• Failure to respond, he said, would be tantamount to resignation. It followed a Trump post to Truth Social early Saturday calling on Musk to get more aggressive with his DOGE project.
• The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) sent the email Saturday afternoon, telling people they had until 11:59 p.m. ET on Monday to respond. (The email did not include Musk's or-else threat.)

Zoom out: Two of the largest unions representing federal workers, the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) and the National Treasury Employees Union (NTEU), told their members to be cautious responding, or not to respond.

• "AFGE will challenge any unlawful terminations of our members and federal employees across the country," union president Everett Kelley said in a statement Saturday night.
• Kelley sent a letter to OPM acting director Charles Ezell on Sunday, demanding the email be withdrawn by that night. The AFGE also sent guidance to members Sunday saying they should respond if ordered to do so by their agencies.

Zoom in: Beyond the unions, a number of federal departments and agencies also appear to have told employees not to respond.

• The Department of Defense told its employees that only the department is responsible for "reviewing the performance of its personnel" and it will undertake employee reviews "in accordance with its own procedures." Employees were told to disregard the OPM email.
• NBC reported that new FBI director Kash Patel told employees not to answer the email.
• Government Executive reported that NOAA and NSA employees were told the same.
• The New York Times reported that State Department employees were also told not to respond.

OPM's email led to chaos and confusion inside agencies.

For example, Employees at the Department of Homeland Security were told not to respond to the Musk directive and that management would handle it, per an email viewed by Axios, from R.D. "Tex" Alles, deputy under secretary for Management at the agency.

• But the email conflicted with guidance on how to respond — while keeping classified information safe — given earlier so some DHS workers from a mid level manager, also viewed by Axios.

The manager also listed some examples of "inappropriate" responses that appeared to mock Musk, including:

• "Drafted an IFR to implement the Martian Exclusion Act of 2040" and "Provided ICE operational plans for their raid next week on the Martian gang that took over Coolidge Hotel in Musktopia. Mars. Etc"
• The weekend guidance emails are creating chaos and in some cases real fear and anxiety for federal employees, one worker said.

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service has instructed staff to reply to the OPM email in coordination with their supervisor, according to an email shared with Axios.

For the record: An OPM spokesperson reiterated that the office was making the request, but said agencies will determine any next steps.

• The White House did not immediately respond to requests for clarification on the timing of those determinations — before the deadline to reply, as some have already done; or after replies have been received.

What we're watching: It remains unclear what will actually happen if employees don't respond.

• Legal action is possible, if not likely, on Monday to try and block any response.
• There's also the unanswered question of what OPM and agencies will do with all these emails, which could end up numbering in the millions.

Go deeper: Americans wary of Elon Musk and DOGE, recent polls show

Editor's note: This story has been updated with further details on AFGE's communication with members.

Andrew Freedman contributed reporting.

Are you a federal employee with a tip? You can reach Emily Peck confidentially on Signal @emilyrpeck.71.

Elon Musk on Saturday said all federal employees will be required to send an email reporting what they accomplished in the last week — and failing to do so will be considered a resignation.

Why it matters: It's a page straight out of the playbook Musk used when he took over Twitter, making workers justify themselves to stay employed.

• The difference is that these are Civil Service employees, many with union protection — to say nothing of a Congress increasingly ill at ease with the blowback over how they're being fired.

Catch up quick: Musk posted his demand to X on Saturday afternoon.

• "Consistent with President (Trump's) instructions, all federal employees will shortly receive an email requesting to understand what they got done last week. Failure to respond will be taken as a resignation," he wrote.
• It follows a Trump post to Truth Social early Saturday morning, calling on Musk to get more aggressive with DOGE's government-slashing efforts.

Zoom out: Musk's post appears to mark the start of the next phase of DOGE's efforts to slash the federal workforce, following tens of thousands of terminations of probationary employees in recent days.

What they're saying: The president of the largest union for federal employees, the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE), was quick to blast Musk's demand.

• "It is cruel and disrespectful to hundreds of thousands of veterans who are wearing their second uniform in the civil service to be forced to justify their job duties to the this out-of-touch, privileged, unelected billionaire who has never performed one single hour of honest public service in his life," Everett Kelley said in a statement.
• "AFGE will challenge any unlawful terminations of our members and federal employees across the country."

For the record: The White House did not immediately respond to an email for comment on Musk's post.

War-torn Ukraine sits on significant reserves of rare earth minerals critical to the world's most cutting-edge technologies.

Why it matters: The U.S. wants them — or else. Talks are ongoing after the Trump administration made a revised proposal for a minerals deal, Axios' Barak Ravid and Marc Caputo scooped.

The big picture: Ukraine's willingness, or lack thereof, to share its minerals and the revenue from their sale may determine whether or not the U.S. ends all support for the country, as its war with Russia nears the start of its fourth year.

What are rare earth minerals?

Context: Rare earths, as the U.S. Department of Energy explains, are a series of elements that are crucial to modern electronics, batteries and the like.

• The U.S. has them, but not nearly in the quantities of some other countries.
• The Pentagon has already spent hundreds of millions of dollars trying to establish a rare earths supply chain, with limited impact so far.
• Most of the world's supply and production is in China, which is increasingly cracking down on exports.

What rare earth minerals does Ukraine have?

By the numbers: Ukraine has about 5% of the world's total reserves of critical rare earths, per UN data.

Zoom out: Ukraine, according to its national Geological Survey, has largely untapped reserves of minerals like tantalum, beryllium and niobium.

• Those minerals have applications in everything from capacitors in electronic devices to the brakes on jet aircraft.
• In total, the Ukrainian government estimates it is sitting on more than 2.6 billion tons of reserves of these crucial minerals — and some observers estimate that stockpile could be worth up to $11.5 trillion.
• The country also has significant reserves of other critical minerals like titanium and lithium.

What does the U.S. want from Ukraine?

Zoom in: As NBC and others have reported, Treasury secretary Scott Bessent offered Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky a deal earlier this month: Give the U.S. 50% ownership of Ukraine's rare earths in exchange for U.S. investment in Ukraine.

• The Ukrainian side rejected that offer, but talks continued behind the scenes even as Trump engaged Zelensky in a public war of words.
• A source with knowledge tells Axios several of Zelensky's aides have encouraged him to sign the updated proposal to avoid a further clash with Trump.

What to watch: Whether the sides will strike a new deal, which could be key to changing the direction of the U.S.-Russia talks on ending the war.

The share of investors who think U.S. stocks are overvalued is at a 24-year high, according to a new BofA Global Research survey out Tuesday.

Why it matters: As well as U.S. stocks have done in the last couple of years, there's more concern than ever about how highly concentrated the market is, and what happens if the "Magnificent 7" driving those gains lose their luster.

The big picture: 89% of respondents to BofA's monthly Global Fund Manager Survey said U.S. stocks are overvalued, the highest in data going back to April 2001.

• The "U.S. exceptionalism" trade, as BofA calls it — conviction in a combination of strong U.S. stocks and a strong dollar — fell in February from a three-year high in January, suggesting confidence has peaked.
• "Global equities" now rank as the asset class expected to perform best this year, per the survey, ahead of gold, U.S. stocks, bitcoin, and government bonds.

By the numbers: Through Friday, the MSCI World ex USA Index —which captures the world's largest developed stock markets other than the United States — was up 8.2% this year, doubling the performance of the S&P 500.

Yes, but: Investors are bullish overall, even if they're not in love with domestic stocks.

• Cash on hand among survey respondents is at the lowest level in 15 years, a strong sign investors are putting their money to work.
• Fears of a global recession fell to a three-year low in the survey, and overall sentiment rose slightly.

As the nation marks a turbulent Black History Month, the economic state of Black America has much improved over the last few decades but is still nowhere near parity.

Why it matters: Economic hardships define people, families and communities for generations; breaking those cycles is the key to broader prosperity.

By the numbers: These are some of the most important indicators that tell the story of the Black community's financial progress and challenges.

• It's worth noting that some of this data is already becoming harder to come by, as the Trump administration purges various federal datasets that touch on issues like race.
• In some charts below, we look at the statistics solely for the Black community, while in others we compare to some or all races and ethnicities — in part to illustrate just how stark some of the gaps are.

The unemployment gap

The gap between the Black and general unemployment rates is less pronounced than in previous decades.

Yes, but: Disparities in the workforce abound from state to state and across regions of the countries. The gap is quite narrow in some places, like Delaware and Maryland, but in places like Kentucky, systemic racial barriers continue to hold people back.

The wealth gap

Black people consistently hold a tiny sliver of the overall wealth of the United States.

Why it matters: Non-Hispanic whites account for about 62% of Americans, but control 84% of the nation's wealth, per the Federal Reserve.

• Black Americans, who represent more than 12% of the population, own only 3.4% of the country's wealth, per the Federal Reserve. That's down sharply from 4.7% in 2017.

Follow the money: Black Americans had just $313 billion in stocks and mutual funds as of the third quarter of 2024, up a mere 3.4% in seven years.

• White Americans, by contrast, have $41 trillion of stock-market wealth — up 91% over the same time period.

The bottom line: On an absolute level, in nominal dollars, Black Americans have more wealth than ever — some $5.4 trillion in total. But their share of the total is not only tiny but also shrinking.

Business ownership

The share of U.S. businesses with Black owners has increased steadily in recent years, though it's still relatively small compared to the share for white or Hispanic owners.

By the numbers: The U.S. Census Bureau's Annual Business Survey shows 3.31% of all U.S. businesses were Black-owned in 2022, the last year for which data is available.

• That's an increase from 2.16% just five years ago.
• Over that time, Black-owned businesses grew 57%, far outpacing total business growth of just over 2%.

Workforce representation

The Black community is under-represented in the private sector, but does somewhat better when it comes to government employment.

Yes, but: That also means the Trump administration's efforts to shrink the federal workforce could disproportionately affect the community.

Banking access

Black households continue to be unbanked (in the traditional sense) at a higher rate than any other race or ethnicity, per FDIC data.

The big picture: While the rates have improved steadily, a double-digit percentage of Black households still don't have bank accounts.

Yes, but: A major caveat here is that the FDIC has a conservative view of what counts as being "banked" (a member of the household has to have a checking or savings account at a federally insured bank or credit union).

• Many people have alternative products, like Cash App, that offer many of the same features, albeit with fees and other limits.

Educational attainment

The share of all Bachelor's degrees awarded to Black people in recent years has held steady — even as other ethnic groups posted robust gains.

By the numbers: Of all Bachelor's degrees awarded in the 2021-2022 school year, 10.4% went to Black students, down from 10.8% in the 2012-2013 year.

• Over that same period, the share that went to Asian students rose to 8.9% from 7%, while for Hispanic students it rose to 17% from 10.5%.
• The share of degrees awarded to white students fell sharply, but Black students didn't participate in that offsetting growth.

Homeownership

There is a massive gap between homeownership rates for Black and white households, one that is not narrowing appreciably.

Why it matters: Homeownership is how most Americans build wealth and pass it on to the next generation.

Household income

The median household income for Black families has risen steadily over the last 20 years but is still nowhere near that of white households.

By the numbers: While the growth trends are roughly the same, the median household income for a Black family in 2023 was less than that for a white family in 2014.

Maternal mortality

Maternal mortality rates in the Black community were significantly higher than in other communities — and now they are increasing while rates in different groups are declining.

The big picture: The long-term costs of mothers dying in and near childbirth are devastating.

• The immediate financial impacts are immense — funerals, travel, etc.
• However, the long-term destructive impact on families and their ability to grow and thrive is far worse.

Medical debt

Those high rates of maternal mortality contribute, at least in part, to medical debt. Black adults carry such debts at much higher rates than any other ethnicity — roughly one in every eight, per Census data.

The big picture: Medical debt contributes in some way to about three in every five consumer bankruptcies and about half of all debt collections, leaving the Black community at much higher risk.

President Trump said Saturday the U.S. will treat value added tax (VAT) systems the same as tariffs, for purposes of helping to calculate the reciprocal levies on other countries he ordered earlier this week.

Why it matters: At least 175 countries globally have a VAT, per the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), meaning it could impact the math on any reciprocal tariff for most nations around the world.

• The impact could be most immediate in the European Union, which has standardized value added taxes with an average rate of almost 22%.

What they're saying: "For purposes of this United States Policy, we will consider Countries that use the VAT System, which is far more punitive than a Tariff, to be similar to that of a Tariff," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

• That follows a memo he issued Thursday, ordering trade officials to study assessing reciprocal tariffs on any country that levies the import of U.S. goods at a higher rate than the U.S. charges that country's goods.
• Part of the study's task is defining a system to calculate the appropriate levies for each country, taking into account factors like the regulatory regime, the business climate, existing tariffs, and whether there's a VAT in place.
• The end result of any proposed system is likely to be tailored on a country-by-country basis, and more complex than a simple "you charge X so we charge X back."
• The study is due by April 1.

The intrigue: When he signed the Thursday memo, Trump told reporters he felt VATs were worse than tariffs.

• That immediately sparked fears of a trade war with Europe, particularly given Trump's recent promises to eventually target the EU with tariffs.
• Tax analysts generally argue that the European VAT isn't much of a burden on U.S. exporters.

What is a VAT?

Between the lines: The idea of a value added tax, or VAT, dates to France in the early 1950s.

• Broadly speaking, it is a consumption tax, paid by the consumer.
• The OECD describes it as "a tax collected at all stages of the processes of production and distribution of goods and services."

VAT rates vary around the world, and in many countries different rates are charged for different categories of products.

• In some places, like Hungary, they can be as high as 27%.

How does VAT work?

Zoom out: Generally, the buyer of a good or service pays the VAT to a seller, who remits that payment to the tax authorities.

• The EU's primer on VAT explains it as a multi-stage process.
• The creator of a good or service collects VAT from whoever they sell their product to. That creator in turn subtracts the VAT they paid to whoever provided them their raw materials.
• What's left is the tax paid to the government.
• It differs from the sales tax most Americans are used to paying, in that with VAT everyone in the process pays a piece of the final taxable amount, and the VAT is built into the price of an item.

Go deeper: Trump's reciprocal tariff threat raises huge unknowns

The U.S. struck deals with Canada and Mexico on Monday to delay potentially devastating tariffs for a month.

Why it matters: The tariffs, had they gone into effect, could have had massive impacts on the economies of all three nations, potentially triggering inflation, recessions and a spiraling trade war.

• It marks the second time in this presidency Trump vowed a massive and disruptive tariff on a long-time ally, only to quickly freeze it after gaining some concessions.

Catch up quick: Trump originally signed the tariff orders Saturday — 25% on Canada and Mexico (10% on energy), and 10% on China as well.

• They were due to take effect at 12:01am ET Tuesday.

Zoom out: Trump announced a deal with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum via Truth Social post early Monday, and in the afternoon Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau confirmed a deal on social media as well.

• Mexico will send 10,000 troops to the border to help control the flow of drugs, and in return the U.S. will help to prevent gun trafficking to cartels.
• The deal with Canada, per Trudeau, includes more border personnel and hundreds of millions of dollars in anti-fentanyl enforcement.
• Both the Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso rallied significantly against the U.S. dollar, which is strengthened by tariffs.

Zoom in: Trump took both deals as wins, touting them on Truth Social and promising further negotiations over the next month — though he did not say what the final goals of those talks would be.

Between the lines: Sheinbaum's move in particular came as little surprise to White House officials, one of whom told Axios on Sunday that a show of force at the border would positively impact Trump.

• "If she sends troops, it's a sign Mexico takes the president seriously," the official said.
• As for Trudeau, the official said, "bust some fentanyl labs. Make progress."

The big picture: The economic consequences of the tariffs could have been profound for all three countries.

• Economists feared they could have plunged both Mexico and Canada into recession, while American consumers stood to face a significant increase in costs and erosion of purchasing power.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with new details on the tariff deals.

Economists almost universally agree that the tariffs imposed by President Trump will cost the average American household hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars every year in higher goods costs.

Why it matters: It's not yet clear those households can, or will, pay it.

The big picture: In a matter of days, we're all going to learn how much pricing power is left in U.S. supply chains — from the wholesalers, to the distributors, all the way through to retail.

• Whether the extra 25% levy on avocados at the Mexican border turns into a 25% hike on your Super Bowl guacamole will depend on a range of factors and business decisions.

State of play: At every step of the process, everyone who touches that avocado (or any other tariffed good) will ask themselves two questions:

• Can my profit margins absorb — or survive — any of this price increase?
• Will customers accept any of that price increase, or just stop buying?

The intrigue: Now ask those same questions at tens of thousands of businesses, thousands of times every day, selling everything from TVs to tires and avocados to amplifiers.

By the numbers: There are short-term and long-term costs at play.

• As Trump's tariffs first hit, the Tax Foundation estimates they will be an effective tax of more than $830 per U.S. household this year.
• Next year, the Tax Policy Center says, the full impact of the tariffs will reduce consumers' average after-tax income by 1%.
• In the long term, economies re-arrange themselves to account for the new order, and central banks react to the inflationary pressures. The Budget Lab at Yale University forecasts even after all that, the average U.S. household will still lose about $1,000 of purchasing power a year.
• Over the medium to long term, the Budget Lab estimated the biggest persistent price increases would be in natural gas (think heating and cooking), and the broad category of "computer, electronic and optical" (cell phones, among other things).

It may not take that long, either — as the well-known free trade expert Douglas Irwin posted on Sunday, his own home heating fuel provider immediately raised their prices to match the tariff, before it had even gone into effect.

The bottom line: "The big worry for markets is that President Trump may be willing to let the U.S. take considerable economic pain in an attempt to achieve his stated goals of reducing trade deficits, bringing jobs to the U.S., and enhancing border security," BMO Wealth Management chief investment officer Yung-Yu Ma wrote Monday.

Go deeper: Trade war begins, as Trump leaves the world guessing

Gen Z men think they need to earn about 15% more to be "financially successful" than young women do, per a new study digging into the thorny question of what "making it" really means.

Why it matters: Even at a young age, the gender wage gap is driving very different perceptions of need and success.

• It also speaks to Gen Z's broad shift to the political right, as young men in particular feel disillusioned by the economy and what it offers them.

Driving the news: YPulse, a youth research organization, surveyed 1,000 people ages 13-39 and asked them "How much would you need to make as an annual salary (e.g. the money you earn at a job per year) for you to be financially successful?"

• It was prompted by a widely reported study last year, published by financial services company Empower, that showed a huge gap between Gen Z and other generations in the definition of a success-making salary.

By the numbers: The male respondents to YPulse's survey, on average, estimated they'd need a salary of $69,500 a year to feel successful.

• That's almost 16% more than the roughly $58,600 average response from women.

Between the lines: According to YPulse, the gender pay gap plays a significant role in the disparity.

• Women have suppressed expectations because they know they're likely to earn less in the workforce.
• That gender wage gap is actually widening, per Census data, and matches almost exactly the YPulse findings.

President Trump on Thursday reiterated that tariffs are coming against Canada and Mexico on Saturday, though he said the scope of those levies is still up in the air.

Why it matters: Canada and Mexico are the top U.S. trading partners, and his ongoing tariff threats have sparked fears of an economically damaging trade war.

Catch up quick: In a question-and-answer session with reporters in the Oval Office, Trump confirmed his previously stated plan to impose tariffs on Feb. 1.

• "Mexico and Canada have never been good to us on trade. They've treated us very unfairly on trade," Trump said, adding: "We don't need what they have."
• The U.S., Mexico and Canada have been joint parties to free trade agreements for decades, first NAFTA and then the USMCA.

Yes, but: The president left the door open to the possibility the tariffs would not be blanket levies on all imports; specifically, he said Canadian oil imports might be exempt.

• "We may or may not, we're going to make that determination tonight," he told reporters.

By the numbers: Trump has previously spoken of a 25% tariff on both countries.

• S&P Global Ratings, in a research report Thursday, said those levies would most affect the Mexican auto industry and the Canadian paper and rubber industries, among others.
• Both nations are expected to retaliate in some way if Trump goes ahead with his plan.
• The U.S. dollar rose to its strongest levels against the Canadian dollar in five years after his statement.

The intrigue: Trump had previously spoken of a 10% tariff on China as of Feb. 1, as well, but he wasn't as firm Thursday on proceeding with that levy.

• Instead he said he was "thinking about doing something" because of the alleged volumes of fentanyl coming to the U.S. from China.
• "China is going to end up paying a tariff also for that and we're in the process of doing that … we'll make that determination what it's going to be."

When lots of people are worried about bubble valuations in stocks or a specific sector, all it takes is a small poke to make the whole thing wobble precariously.

Why it matters: That can cost investors $1 trillion or more in a single day, as happened Monday with the global AI rout.

• It can also challenge the fundamental assumptions behind an entire economy, like the nascent Trump administration's push to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in American AI supremacy.

Zoom out: In the 1950s, the Soviets beat the U.S. into space. In 2025, China appears to have potentially beaten the U.S. to building a better AI mousetrap.

• Last week, the small Chinese upstart DeepSeek announced a new reasoning model, R1, that appears to outperform the best America has to offer, including OpenAI's ChatGPT, Anthropic's Claude and Meta's Llama.

The problem? Those companies spent billions of dollars building their models, fueling growth for companies like Nvidia, whose chips are the gold standard in that training process.

• DeepSeek spent a mere $6 million, figured out how to do it faster and more efficiently with cheaper hardware, and then released the whole thing as a free, open-source platform.

The big picture: President Trump's economic vision relies on massive growth, fueled by the AI boom that his closest advisers have sold as the country's future.

• The biggest economic announcement of his first week in office was Stargate, a five-year plan to spend $500 billion on AI infrastructure. (Complicating matters, Trump ally Elon Musk immediately cast doubt on whether anyone actually had the money to fund the project.)
• But if China can do AI better and faster at one one-thousandth of the cost, it casts a shadow on the rationale for spending that kind of money and leaves the country playing catch-up.

Follow the money: The U.S. stock market, though incredibly strong in recent years, is also fragile.

• Market concentration — that is to say, a small number of stocks driving the overall market's performance — is higher now than it's been in decades. In such an environment, it take very little to make the whole thing go south.
• Investors got a little taste of that earlier this month, when Nvidia's CEO made an off-hand comment about quantum computers, and a red-hot sector lost roughly half its value in one day.

Between the lines: In those volatile scenarios, what goes down violently can also rally just as spectacularly.

• One terrible day in markets could be the start of a horrible year, or it could simply be the market shaking out a little over-exuberance and reverting to slightly more rational valuations.
• "We will soon find out if all the claims [about DeepSeek] are true and it is my expectation that we will also learn how quickly U.S. firms can adapt," Nancy Tengler, CEO of Laffer Tengler Investments, said in a note Monday.

The intrigue: Generative AI, as a technology and an industry, has developed so quickly that there hasn't been much time for long-term thinking.

• If AI really is that powerful, and if the Chinese really have found a way to build it faster and cheaper, any company that's capable of leveraging the technology could win in the long term with more accessible growth opportunities.
• "While there is a contention that DeepSeek's efficient training methods could reduce the demand for high-end Nvidia GPUs, potentially affecting sales, it is also plausible that the more cost-effective approach will result in more demand for hardware for those looking to train proprietary models," Mark Klein, CEO of investment fund SuRo Capital, said in a note Monday.

The bottom line: One bad day in the markets isn't the end of the world.

• But it's also a wake-up call. In a 24-hour, highly interconnected world, never doubt that competition is right around the corner.

Axios' Felix Salmon contributed.