President Trump is putting China's economy through a trillion-dollar stress test, and he may not like the result.

Why it matters: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insists China is far more reliant on the U.S. than vice-versa, and thus has no choice but to blink first.

• But Chinese President Xi Jinping's disinclination to rush to the table suggests he thinks time is on China's side.
• We're about to get some indications of who is right.

The big picture: China says it sent around 15% of its exports, worth $525 billion, to the U.S. last year — about 3x what flowed in the opposite direction. (U.S. data differs on the total value by nearly $100 billion, but the ratios are about the same.)

• New export orders are already falling sharply, portending empty shelves and price hikes in the U.S.
• But Bessent has claimed China would be hit far harder, potentially losing 10 million jobs just in the near-term.
• "I believe that it's up to China to de-escalate, because they sell five times more to us than we sell to them, and so these 120%, 145% tariffs are unsustainable," he told CNBC.
• China's inflation and retail sales data in the coming weeks should provide the first insights into whether the country could really outlast the U.S. in a prolonged trade war.

Between the lines: China has been endeavoring for years to reduce its reliance on exports to the U.S., and the hunt for alternative markets has taken on a new urgency.

• E-commerce sales for low-cost Chinese retailers have started to tick up in Europe, though the degree to which other markets can replace the U.S. will likely depend on the product.

Beijing has also been trying to convince its savings-conscious consumers to buy more of what China produces, highlighting stronger spending as an economic priority.

• The government has been offering vouchers and subsidies directly to consumers, including rebates to trade in old cars and appliances.
• It announced additional measures last month to "vigorously boost consumption" across a range of industries.
• The government is also rallying citizens and corporations with a nationalistic message that China is being unfairly targeted.

Zoom in: If Chinese consumers start spending and absorbing some originally U.S.-bound goods, authorities in Beijing have a lot more room to stand their ground.

Reality check: While China's economy may prove more adaptable than Bessent hopes, many ordinary Chinese will undoubtedly be hurt by the trade war, just as many Americans will.

• While it's unclear which side will be hit harder, "Chinese leaders have sort of committed themselves to rolling out stimulus, depending on the economic conditions," according to Tianchen Xu, senior economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit.
• "For example, if the export sector is really struggling and it leads to a substantial rise in unemployment and social stability risks, then I think they will be quite decisive in terms of providing more support."

What to watch: The tariff pain is more likely to translate to immediate political pressure in the U.S. than in China, both because of the nature of the two political systems and because people on both sides know it was Trump, not Xi, who chose this fight.

Go deeper: How China will ensure the trade war hurts the U.S.

News that Attorney General Pam Bondi is resuming the practice of trying to seize reporters' phone records to smoke out leakers is the latest and most significant effort by the Trump administration to target the press as part of its early agenda.

Why it matters: President Trump has done more to target traditional media companies than any other modern U.S. president. Even as he and his allies wage a historic trade war, they have not lost sight of their stated goal of going after the press.

Zoom in: In Trump's first 100 days ...

• The White House banned the AP from covering its events and is embroiled in a lawsuit over the matter.
• The State Department ordered the cancellation of federal news subscriptions.
• The Defense Department replaced the press offices of several mainstream organizations with mostly conservative outlets.
• The Trump administration reportedly drafted a memo to Congress outlining its plans to cut federal funding for public broadcasters. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) called on the CEOs of NPR and PBS to testify at a DOGE subcommittee hearing about what she says is "systemically biased content." The Federal Communications Commission is also investigating the two public broadcasters over whether their member stations violated FCC rules around airing commercial ads.
• FCC Chair Brendan Carr has launched investigations into Comcast/NBCU, Paramount/CBS and Disney/ABC.
• The administration has also tried to gut the government-funded U.S. Agency for Global Media and its outlets.
• It has ordered the firing of three board directors from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, which allocates federal funding to NPR and PBS. CPB has subsequently sued the administration for trying to fire three members of its board.

Yes, but: Efforts to defund or restrict news entities by the Trump administration have faced challenges in court.

• Earlier this month, a federal judge sided with the Associated Press in its lawsuit against the White House, declaring that under the First Amendment the government can't bar journalists from certain government events because of their viewpoints.
• Last week, a federal judge ruled that Voice of America workers who were placed on leave or fired should return to work. The judge added that the Trump administration must restore funding to the VOA and other U.S. government-funded news outlets.

The big picture: Amid all of these efforts, the Trump administration still engages with and cites outlets it has targeted.

• Despite a historic $20 billion lawsuit against CBS, the president has cited the outlet's polling when favorable.
• Trump sat down for an interview with ABC on the first 100 days of his second term.
• The now infamous photograph of Trump defiantly raising his fist after an assassination attempt, taken by AP photographer Evan Vucci, is on display in the White House.

For the record: "This White House believes in transparency and reflecting the media habits of the American people which is exactly why the new media seat was created, hundreds of press passes were reinstated, and the press pool now includes media previously left out," a White House spokesperson said in a statement.

• On Friday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt defended the administration's media strategy and noted it has expanded access for new media.

What to watch: The White House plans to impose its own seating chart for reporters in the briefing room, per Axios' Mike Allen.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with a White House statement.