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Behind the Curtain — Our holiday gift: Hope

25 December 2024 at 05:45

The media, our social media feeds and our most pessimistic friends fill us with doom and gloom stories. But by many measures, there's never been a better time to be alive in America. 

Why it matters: Yes, bad people are always doing bad things for bad reasons. It's called life. This column focuses on the Good Stuff: the undeniable trends that reveal a distinct edge for America, young people and this moment.


When your boozy uncle goes dark today, remind him and others:

  1. There's no better place to start a business and rise to unthinkable heights doing what you choose to do. We have the best hospitals, colleges and technology centers.
  2. You can think, say and worship as you please without fear of imprisonment. Faith might be fading, but the ability to practice it is unfettered.
  3. The United States has the world's strongest military. We enjoy peace with our neighbors and the protection of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Our military is both the most feared — and most sought-after by other nations for assistance.
  4. We're blessed with abundant natural resources — we can produce enough energy from the ground and skies to power ourselves for generations. In just eight years, the U.S. "has rocketed from barely selling any gas overseas to becoming the world's No. 1 supplier" — bolstering the economy and strengthening American influence abroad. (N.Y. Times)
  5. We're still the place where people want to risk their lives to come live, work and raise a family.
  6. The greatest inventions come from the magical animal spirits of American capitalism: freedom and entrepreneurial zest — hardwired into our souls and our national story. We enjoy a massive early lead to build the next great technology: generative artificial intelligence.
  7. The United States is the world's longest-surviving democracy, which has remained steadfast, resilient and enduring through existential crises.
  8. Young people are more optimistic than ever, earning more than ever, and able to make an instant difference in the workplace because of their tech savvy.
  9. And Jim's favorite: Most people are normal. They don't watch cable food fights, or dunk on people on X, or say or do nasty things to others. They work hard, volunteer, help you shovel in a storm.

The bottom line: We're blessed, this and every holiday season, to have smart, engaged, thoughtful readers who trust us — and remind us when we fall short. Enjoy your family. Enjoy the holidays. Enjoy America.

Biden commutes most federal death sentences

23 December 2024 at 04:45

With 28 full days left in office, President Biden announced Monday he is commuting the sentences for 37 of the 40 people on federal death row, converting their punishments to life without possibility of parole.

The big picture: Biden promised to abolish federal use of the death penalty when he campaigned for the White House in 2020.


  • Monday's move spares the lives of people convicted in killings, including the slayings of police and military officers, people on federal land and those involved in deadly bank robberies or drug deals, as well as the killings of guards or prisoners in federal facilities, AP reports.

What he's saying: "Make no mistake: I condemn these murderers, grieve for the victims of their despicable acts, and ache for all the families who have suffered unimaginable and irreparable loss," Biden said in a statement. "But guided by my conscience and my experience, ... I am more convinced than ever that we must stop the use of the death penalty at the federal level."

  • In a jab at President-elect Trump, Biden added: "In good conscience, I cannot stand back and let a new administration resume executions that I halted."

Between the lines: Three federal inmates still face execution.

  • Dylann Roof, the white supremacist who carried out the 2015 racist slayings of nine Black members of Mother Emanuel AME Church in Charleston, S.C.
  • Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, who helped carry out the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing, which left three dead and scores injured.
  • Robert Bowers, who fatally shot 11 congregants at Pittsburgh's Tree of Life synagogue in 2018, the deadliest antisemitic attack in U.S. history.

Zoom in: Earlier this year, Biden's Justice Department asked a federal judge to impose the death penalty for the first time in a new case.

  • The request was for Payton Gendron, the white gunman who killed 10 Black people in a mass shooting at a supermarket in Buffalo, New York.
  • New York doesn't have the death penalty, but the federal government has jurisdiction to seek the punishment with federal interest and alleged violations of federal statutes, the Death Penalty Information Center said in January.

Context: Biden in 2021 announced a moratorium on federal capital punishment to study the protocols used.

  • There were 13 federal executions during Trump's first term, more than under any president in modern history.
  • Biden this month faced sharp criticism, including from Democrats, after pardoning his son, Hunter Biden. He faced sentencing after being convicted of felony gun charges and pleading guilty to felony tax charges.
  • Monday's announcement comes after recent pressure from advocacy groups urging Biden to act to make it more difficult for Trump to increase the use of capital punishment for federal inmates.

Go deeper:

Editor's note: This story was updated with additional context. Axios' April Rubin contributed reporting.

Turning Point festival mobilizes Trump youth, podcast army

22 December 2024 at 06:27

PHOENIX — Five hundred fans of Charlie Kirk — the 31-year-old founder and CEO of Turning Point USA, the MAGA-verse's biggest outside group — broke into applause Saturday as Kirk welcomed former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) to the stage for a taping of "The Charlie Kirk Show" podcast.

  • "I wish they were all members of the United States Senate," Gaetz joshed, a month after withdrawing as President-elect Trump's choice for attorney general, and with release expected imminently of a House Ethics Committee report on his conduct.
  • "I think they want you to be pope!" Kirk quipped.
  • "I'm a Baptist!" Gaetz replied.

Why it matters: Kirk is one of the biggest winners of November's election who wasn't on the ballot. He'll introduce Trump today as the climactic guest of Turning Point's annual AmericaFest. This year's victory-lap edition is a triumphalist, four-day MAGAstock that drew 21,000 Trump diehards, many in college, to the desert the weekend before Christmas.

Kirk, who caught snippets of college football playoff games backstage, is the boyish, often controversial leader of a MAGA army that will:

  1. Bring grassroots pressure on Republican senators to confirm all Trump nominees. "Confirm the Mandate" is how Turning Point Action, Kirk's political arm, puts it.
  2. Insist GOP lawmakers hew the Trump line. In a tectonic change for the right, Turning Point is happy to be as combative with Republicans as with Democrats.
  3. Push Trumpers nationwide to act on Elon Musk's insistence, which Kirk repeated onstage, that everyday users of X "are the media now."

Between the lines: It's all backed by a vast network of friendly podcasts, dozens of which are taping here on elaborate sets that sometimes even include teleprompters. "Media Row" is actually two huge wings of the Phoenix Convention Center atrium.

  • Kirk is close to Trump, Vice President-elect Vance, Don Jr. and Tucker Carlson. During the election, Turning Point Action launched a high-risk, high-reward "Chase the Vote" turnout operation for Trump — and won big.
  • Kirk has become one of the most popular pitchmen for products aimed at "patriots": "Use promo code KIRK today." At the Gaetz taping, audience members had to show proof of membership in "Charlie Kirk Exclusive," the podcast's paid tier.
A cardboard cutout of Charlie Kirk at Turning Point USA's AmericaFest at the Phoenix Convention Center. Photo: Rebecca Noble/Getty Images

By the numbers: Turning Point — which also holds a Student Action Summit, a Young Women's Leadership Summit and a Pastors Summit — tells Axios this weekend's AmFest is the group's largest-ever multiday event, with 6,000 students among the 21,000 attendees.

  • Turning Point Action staged massive Trump rallies during the campaign, including co-hosting the 20,000-person RFK Jr. endorsement event in Glendale, Ariz., in August, and drawing 16,000 in Duluth, Ga., and 18,000 in Vegas in the campaign's closing two weeks.
  • Turning Point USA has 1,000+ college chapters and 1,200 high school chapters — plus a presence at 3,500+ other colleges and high schools (not yet school-sanctioned, but in the process of trying to get recognized).

The big picture: This year's AmFest has "an air not only of celebration but muscle-flexing," The Wall Street Journal's Aaron Zitner writes.

  • "Trump's frequent appearances on podcasts, a medium suited to his freewheeling, off-the-cuff banter, wasn't only credited here with drawing young and minority voters to the GOP but with validating the power of new media platforms."

What's next: During an onstage parade of fire-and-brimstone pastors last night at AmFest's "Faith Night," Kirk warned attendees to arrive as early as 6:30 a.m. to get a seat for Trump's 10:30 a.m. speech. Kirk quipped: "I have a feeling the college kids are not gonna go to sleep tonight!"

Scoop: Kara Swisher's long-shot Post bid

20 December 2024 at 02:51

Kara Swisher, the popular podcaster and pioneering tech journalist, is trying to round up a group of rich people to fund a bid for the Washington Post, she told us.

  • One big problem: Jeff Bezos, the owner, has shown no interest in selling.

Why it matters: Swisher — who started in the Post mailroom, and became an early tech reporter at the paper (and later one of the first at The Wall Street Journal) — believes the Amazon founder will eventually want to sell, since the paper has become a managerial nightmare.

Like many, Swisher thinks Bezos should sell since he has other financial and personal interests — like space tech — that are more important to him, and can conflict with his Post ownership.

  • "The Post can do better," she told us. "It's so maddening to see what's happening. ... Why not me? Why not any of us?"

The backstory: Oliver Darcy reported this fall in his newsletter, Status, that Swisher was "interested in assembling a consortium of wealthy investors to make a bid for the paper."

  • Since then, a banker who worked with Swisher in the past has been helping her think through how to move the idea forward.
  • The storied paper would be run by a board of civic-minded people willing to write a big check to be part of something important. She'd be open to Bezos remaining a partial investor.

In Swisher's recent memoir, "Burn Book," she recalled imploring former Post publisher Don Graham to pay more attention to the coming digital revolution.

  • She's busy as a CNN contributor, host of the "Pivot" podcast with Scott Galloway and her solo "On with Kara Swisher," and editor-at-large for New York Magazine.
  • But she has ideas for innovative people who could energize the newsroom, and move the business side toward break-even.

The bottom line: Swisher is confident the money is there. But Bezos would have to want to sell. And she notes there would surely be a long line of other suitors, including giant private equity firms and other power-minded billionaires.

  • "Hopefully not Elon," Swisher added, "though he seems pretty busy these days being President (Not) Elect."

🔎 Between the lines: The paper's great quest for an executive editor, once Ben Bradlee's job, has ended with a whimper.

  • Matt Murray, originally named to the job through the election, on Thursday announced the newly formed masthead position of standards editor — to be held by Karen Pensiero, who worked for Murray as a managing editor when he was editor-in-chief of the Wall Street Journal.
  • The appointment was intended to signal Murray is there to stay after a high-profile external search.

Government shutdown fight captures difference between media and reporting

20 December 2024 at 02:36

This week's epic fight over funding the government captures the power — and flaws — of the new information ecosystem.

Why it matters: Elon Musk and his followers on X proved they dominate the Republican media industrial complex — using a digital revolt to kill a spending bill, and open the door to a government shutdown. That revolt was powered by some false information, tweeted with total self-certainty.


"We aren't just the media here now. We are also the government," Donald Trump Jr. tweeted yesterday to his 13 million followers.

  • MAGA's online army now can assess "information rapidly & pressure our representatives to act in a manner that actually represents what we want," Don Jr. added. "They can't hide and do the bidding of swamp oligarchs anymore."

🖼️ The big picture: This reality highlights the difference between media (what people consume) and reporting (a set of standards for pursuing fact-based information). In the new world order, media and reporting are tossed together with a mix of truth, opinion, and nonsense.

  • This helps explain the confusion that engulfs almost every real-time topic, from drones in the New Jersey skies to whether billions were stuffed into a spending bill for a new D.C. football stadium. (The bill banned the use of federal funds for the stadium.)

💡 Truth bomb: This is your present and future, and little can be done to stop it. A fragmented media means fragmented truths and standards.

  • The winners are those who control the flow of information to the largest numbers of people — or the right people at the right moment on the right topic. Right now, Musk controls both for the incoming governing party.

This allowed Musk to tweetstorm (150+ posts) the defeat of the federal spending bill, while sharing some demonstrably false information — including the size of a proposed congressional pay raise (now dropped from the bill).

So when Musk tells X followers "You are the media," it's true they're part of his media. But that's different than declaring they're all reporters, trying to validate information before sharing it.

  • That puts even more pressure on you as a news consumer to discern what and who you can trust for reliable, actionable information. It demands skepticism and patience when hot news hits fast.
  • You need to be skeptical of people or sources unless you feel confident they routinely get it right. You need to be patient in not overreacting to — or oversharing — stories that hit your dopamine button.

A similar burden now falls on businesses, where big strategic decisions are shaped by evolving events. Discerning reality will get harder, as will discerning the scale of micro-movements that quickly become macro-movements — or disintegrate instantly.

  • Finally, as we've written before, it puts pressure on media companies like Axios to up our games by winning and keeping trust — offering clarity in moments of confusion, and reporting clinically not emotionally.

🛸 Case in point: New York Times columnist Zeynep Tufekci, a Princeton professor who wrote a book about Twitter and social movements, found a 70-year-old parallel with the New Jersey drone craze. In 1954, an epidemic of car owners in Washington state reported pits in their windshields that they feared could be caused by vandals ... or even H-bomb tests. The Seattle mayor sought presidential intervention.

  • The Seattle police crime laboratory determined that the damage reports stemmed from 5% "hoodlum-ism" and 95% "public hysteria."
  • "In the Seattle windshield panic," Tufekci wrote, "mainstream media outlets amplified people's panic. In the internet age, ordinary people can perform that service."

🗞️ Context: Newspapers long were the natural home of great investigative reporters. But the pandemic expedited cuts to newsrooms.

  • Axios Media Trends author Sara Fischer points out that as news organizations scrambled to survive, investments that would've gone to hiring more reporters went to establishing audiences on TikTok and other new platforms, or making content for streamers.

More local news outlets were forced to pull back or shutter, removing accountability coverage for thousands of U.S. counties.

  • Most places around the country that saw their newspapers shutter still haven't gotten replacements. Those communities are relying on TikTok for news. Studies have shown that when a local community loses a legitimate news source, there's a huge spike in wasteful government.

🔮 What we're hearing: Trump insiders tell us this week's X revolt was just the beginning.

  • "The problem Congress faces," a Trump transition source says, "is that Elon now has an army of people reviewing every word of every bill — and he's gonna amplify the crazy sh*t in there. So until they come up with a bill without a lot of crazy sh*t, the government will stay shut down."

Axios' Sara Fischer and Noah Bressner contributed reporting.

Behind the Curtain: Musk's America

19 December 2024 at 03:19

Elon Musk is arguably the most powerful person in business, the most powerful man in media and, at least at this moment, the most powerful man in politics.

Why it matters: This much power, across this many pillars of society, is without precedent. Musk yesterday single-handedly, his voice amplified by his daylong bombardment of scores of tweets on his X platform, sank a 1,547-page, bipartisan House spending bill aimed at preventing a government shutdown at 12:01 a.m. Saturday.


It's a breathtaking preview of the new power centers that will rewire Washington beginning with Trump's inauguration 32 days from now.

  • A Trump source told us this is the new playbook: Republican lawmakers got "instant and overwhelming feedback. Before, it had to be slowly funneled through conservative press ... [N]ow there is a megaphone."

Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who's friends with Trump and Musk, told us: "Both men never give up, and follow through even if it seems impossible. You should never bet against Trump or Elon."

  • Now, the two are a combined force blanketing culture, media and governance.

Zoom in: The number of lawmakers genuflecting to Musk on X was astonishing. "My phone was ringing off the hook," said Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky. "The people who elected us are listening to Elon Musk."

  • If the government shuts down, Musk can take credit or blame. Twelve hours after Musk lit the match with a 4:15 a.m. tweet (now with 37 million views) saying the 3-month spending bill must die, Trump and Vice President-elect Vance upped the ante with a statement saying Congress must raise the nation's debt ceiling now instead of waiting, as expected, until next year. Vance was at the Capitol, participating in closed-door negotiations.
  • "Republicans must GET SMART and TOUGH," Trump and Vance said. "If Democrats threaten to shut down the government unless we give them everything they want, then CALL THEIR BLUFF."
  • House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), whose speakership looked secure after Republicans kept the House, could lose his gavel after yesterday's revolt — which Musk inspired and stoked.

Behind the scenes: Musk flexed his intimacy with Trump last night by reportedly joining the table with his rival, Jeff Bezos and his fiancée, Lauren Sanchez, as they dined with Trump at Mar-a-Lago.

The big picture: Not too shabby for a guy who barely dabbled in politics until the past year or so. Now, Musk is a full-time policy advocate, government cost-cutter, and omnipresent Trump adviser — while running four companies.

  • Trump dominates politics, and will do so without peer once in office. But even Trump found himself responding to Musk's crusade to tank the package, which would have extended existing government programs and services at their current levels through March 14.
  • But it included disaster relief, assistance for farmers, a new stadium provision for the Washington Commanders — "a true Christmas tree of a bill, adorned with all manner of unrelated policy measures in the kind of year-end catchall that Republicans have long derided," as the New York Times put it.
  • Vivek Ramaswamy — co-leader with Musk of Trump's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) — joined the online barrage. "We the People won," Ramaswamy tweeted at dinnertime. "That's how America is supposed to work."

Between the lines: Remember that Musk is a private citizen, and Trump isn't in office yet.

  • X is now the world's most powerful information tool, with Musk as the architect.

How it happened: "Any member of the House or Senate who votes for this outrageous spending bill deserves to be voted out in 2 years!" Musk tweeted in early afternoon, in a post that got 27 million views.

  • "THIS CRIMINAL BILL MUST NOT PASS," he added fifteen minutes later.
  • Ten minutes after that: "Please call your elected representatives right away to tell them how you feel! They are trying to get this passed today while no one is paying attention."
  • After the compromise bill was dead, Musk tweeted at 11:23 p.m.: "The will of the people prevailed."

Trump swooped in yesterday after Musk had softened the ground. "Sounds like the ridiculous and extraordinarily expensive Continuing Resolution, PLUS, is dying fast," Trump gloated on Truth Social at 6:27 p.m.

  • Trump then denigrated efforts to push through a stripped-down version of the bill. "If Republicans try to pass a clean Continuing Resolution without all of the Democrat 'bells and whistles' that will be so destructive to our Country,' he wrote, "all it will do, after January 20th, is bring the mess of the Debt Limit into the Trump Administration, rather than allowing it to take place in the Biden Administration. Any Republican that would be so stupid as to do this should, and will, be Primaried."

Reality check: Musk's tweetstorm included a number of misleading or false claims, as Politico pointed out.

  • For instance, the bill doesn't include "a 40% pay increase for Congress," as Musk asserted in a tweet with 26 million views. The maximum raise for members of Congress, whose last pay raise was in 2009, would be 3.8%.

A Trump transition source insisted Musk's power flows only from the president-elect. "There are things Elon doesn't agree with us on that he ain't getting," the source said.

"Trump Effect": CEOs, investors bullish on global economy, survey finds

18 December 2024 at 04:42

President-elect Trump's election victory has produced soaring confidence in the global economy, according to a new survey by Teneo, the global CEO advisory firm.

Why it matters: The survey includes the views of more than 300 global public company CEOs, plus 380 institutional investors representing approximately $10 trillion of company and portfolio value.


What they're saying: "Buoyed by the 'Trump Effect,' the market expects a resurgence of M&A, increased hiring and greater levels of U.S. and foreign investment," said Teneo CEO Paul Keary.

  • "The U.S. will clearly be the beneficiary of much of this positive activity, solidifying its position as the most important investment destination for global businesses."

Driving the news: Seventy-seven percent of global CEOs — up from just 45% in 2024 — and 86% of investors expect the global economy to improve in the first six months of 2025, per Teneo's survey.

  • More than 80% of CEOs and investors predict a major return of mergers and acquisitions next year, the survey found, citing greater access to capital and the incoming Trump administration as the primary accelerants.
  • Among global CEOs, the U.S. ranks as the most attractive investment destination.

State of play: Global CEOs and investors reported being optimistic about the economic impact of Trump's return, an outlook that outweighs concerns about tariffs, trade barriers and geopolitical tensions.

  • Half of global CEOs are picking up pace in areas like investing and hiring as a result of the 2024 election, the survey reported.
  • More than 64% of respondents said they believe Trump's shift in tariff policies, along with rollbacks in taxes and regulations, will positively impact their businesses next year.

Zoom out: More than 76% of CEOs and 83% of investors reported believing the outcome of global elections in 2024 will improve the global economy and worldwide stability.

Go deeper: Trump wildcard paralyzes global central banks

Scoop: Washington Post's top editor prospects flee after hearing its business strategy

17 December 2024 at 03:12

The situation at the Washington Post is so dire that two candidates to run the paper — Cliff Levy of the New York Times and Meta's Anne Kornblut, a former Post editor — both withdrew from consideration for the top newsroom job over the paper's strategy, sources involved in the process say.

Why it matters: The Post is scrambling to find a new executive editor, the chair once held by Ben Bradlee, amid shrinking paid readership and revenue. Publisher and CEO Will Lewis, handpicked by owner Jeff Bezos to save the Post, hasn't impressed the candidates with his vision for the future, the sources tell us.


  • One person involved in the search told us Lewis' pitch was foggy and uninspiring.

Zoom in: Levy, who pulled out last week, and Kornblut, whose conversations ended in September, declined to comment. Other candidates include current interim executive editor Matt Murray. But it's hard to imagine this monthslong process unfolding so publicly — only to end with the same guy in charge.

  • A few candidates were asked to write six-page memos — a hallmark of Amazon culture — about their journalistic vision for the paper, using AI and how to grow the Post's audience.
  • Levy is a two-time Pulitzer winner who was an early advocate for digital innovation, and now is deputy publisher of two prized Times properties, The Athletic and Wirecutter. He started talking to the Post in August after the paper's search firm, Egon Zehnder, reached out.

Kornblut, who declined to move forward with the process after initial conversations, is Meta's VP of global product content operations.

  • She had a formidable newspaper career before moving to the Bay Area as a tech executive: She was a Washington correspondent for the Boston Globe and the New York Times before becoming a Washington Post reporter and editor for eight years.
  • Kornblut rose to deputy assistant managing editor for national news, where she was the lead editor on Pulitzer-winning coverage of Edward Snowden's NSA revelations.

Matea Gold — a respected, popular managing editor many reporters wanted in the top job, and who conceived of and ran the Post's Pulitzer-winning investigation into the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol — announced last week that she's moving to the New York Times as Washington editor, making her deputy to the bureau chief.

  • There's lots of anxiety in the Post newsroom right now about whether the paper is still committed to that kind of fearless accountability reporting.

Axios confirmed that the search firm also reached out to Kevin Merida and Steven Ginsberg, two former Washington Post managing editors. Neither expressed interest in the role.

  • Merida stepped down as editor of the L.A. Times earlier this year. Ginsberg is executive editor of The Athletic, the N.Y. Times sports outlet that Levy oversees.

The big picture: Bezos has said little about what he wants for a revived Post. He is scheduled to dine with President-elect Trump at Mar-a-Lago this week — two months after killing a Post endorsement of Trump's rival, Vice President Harris.

  • Bezos' various business interests — Amazon and the Blue Origin space company — stand to gain or suffer from Trump's presidency.
  • The Post has announced no major shifts or innovations under the Lewis regime. Toss in a demoralized staff and invigorated labor unions, and you have a mighty challenge for the next top editor.

Between the lines: The Post has lost a ton of talent this last year, and several stars are talking to competitors about leaving soon. One hot rumor inside the Post: The Atlantic is licking its chops over political writers who are increasingly poachable. Other Posties are eying the New York Times, long known at the Post as "Brand X."

  • People involved in the process say Bezos has been mostly MIA at the Post, leaving matters to Lewis, who is unpopular in the newsroom.
  • Several people familiar with the Post's search were baffled by the apparent absence of editorial vision or business strategy. "I'm not sure it's salvageable," one of them said.

Behind the scenes: A huge source of newsroom agita has been a decision by Lewis to scale back the traditional ceremony for the annual Eugene Meyer Awards, which recognize employees with 10+ years of service, and the Ben Bradlee Award for Courage in Journalism, honoring the relentless pursuit of truth.

  • The year-end festivities were a huge deal at the paper: Honorees were called onstage and gave speeches, often tearful, before their families, colleagues and friends. Post legends Don Graham and Sally Quinn always attended. There was booze and a buffet supper.
  • The extravaganza will be replaced by a smaller awards dinner in the new year for the winners, including revered sportswriter Sally Jenkins, and their families. A scaled-back toast to the newsroom winners will be held today at 2:30pm, along with a sendoff for Gold.

What we're watching: Given Gold's experience at the Post and what sources have described to Axios, Lewis appears most interested in hiring candidates from outside the organization.

  • Insiders say Lewis' search for fresh faces is a possible sign that he distrusts the newsroom — especially after the internal meltdown over an aborted plan to appoint Robert Winnett, the top editor of The Telegraph in London.

Trump's Creators and Destroyers Cabinet: Picks that look to fuel growth and seek revenge

16 December 2024 at 02:31

Think of President-elect Trump's top Cabinet and West Wing officials in two big buckets:

  • The Creators are charged with stoking a booming, AI-enabled economy, including a low jobless rate — the "golden age of America" that Trump promised after he won.
  • The Destroyers are the more controversial picks — wired to disrupt existing institutions, and acting on smoldering grievances against the organizations they've been picked to lead.

Why it matters: This creators-plus-destroyers dynamic dominates the behind-the-scenes jockeying for jobs and influence. Expect jarring swings between popular, pro-growth moves and ruthless government gutting and payback. It's the Trump Way.

🧱 The Creators are concentrated on Trump's economic team, including Treasury nominee Scott Bessent, a hedge-fund veteran with Wall Street cred.

  • Trump wants to spur economic growth via lower taxes and pro-business policies. Howard Lutnick — chair & CEO of the Wall Street firm Cantor Fitzgerald, and co-chair of Trump's transition — was named to a souped-up version of Commerce secretary, as leader of Trump's tariff and trade agenda. Kevin Hassett, who'll be director of the National Economic Council — in Trump I, he chaired the Council of Economic Advisers — is popular on the Hill. Trump's trade representative will be Jamieson Greer, who was chief of staff to Robert Lighthizer — the pro-tariff, China-hawk trade representative in Trump I.
  • Trump needs a massive surge in energy production, and greater capacity in adjacent businesses. His pick for Interior secretary, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, will also chair a new National Energy Council, with purview over "ALL forms of American Energy." Joining him on the council will be his choice for Energy secretary, Chris Wright, a Denver-based energy entrepreneur and fracking proponent.
  • Trump needs to juice the AI boom to super-boost growth — and provide more wiggle room for other economic policies. He's creating the new role of AI and crypto czar for David Sacks, who became a tech-bro hero as one of the four "Besties" on the "All-In" podcast.

The working theory: Remember, Trump treats the markets as his approval rating. To have the leverage to carry out his economic plans, he needs markets to continue booming, as they have under President Biden.

  • So the most savvy companies are finding ways to show how they help Trump boost growth — while keeping quiet on his harder-edged moves.

💣 The Destroyers are out for revenge — sometimes for Trump, sometimes for themselves, sometimes born of ideology. Then they'll rebuild in MAGA's image. These are picks where Trump has gone with this gut.

  • Trump is hellbent on retribution against the FBI for investigating him. Thus the aggressive pick of hardliner Kash Patel for FBI director.

Trump would be happy to return the Pentagon, the biggest bureaucracy of them all, to its roots — center it around the needs of warfighters, and tear down and rebuild a broken procurement system. A transition source says Trump told Pete Hegseth, his choice for SecDef: "I expect you to do more with less. They're spending too much money, and we're not getting anything for all that money."

  • So Trump fought back when Hegseth's confirmation chances looked shaky after a series of damaging articles last month. But a ferocious operation by Trump's inner circle now has Hegseth on track for confirmation, barring damaging new information.

You can see Trump's deep mistrust of the intelligence community in his selection of former Democratic congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence.

  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would bring radically new instincts and priorities to HHS — and, some public-health critics contend, undermine the mission.
  • Trump is stacking destroyers in some jobs that don't need Senate confirmation. These include two hard-line appointees announced over the weekend: Ric Grenell, a presidential envoy to world hot spots, and former House Intelligence Chair Devin Nunes, who'll chair the President's Intelligence Advisory Board while remaining head of Trump's Truth Social.

Between the lines: Some of Trump's picks have been given the delicate charge of both creating and destroying. Hegseth, for instance, is expected both to shake up the "defense industrial complex," while building up a "powerful military that the president can use as a tool for deterrence," a second transition source said.

  • John Ratcliffe, who has been tapped for CIA director, is expected to both destroy what Trump sees as "the Deep State" lurking within the agency, while also building an intelligence apparatus that "won't be caught off guard," and will "give the president the best intelligence in the world," the source said.

What we're hearing: Trump is sticking with his destroyers because they're his people. We're told that this time around, he's vastly less inclined to second-guess his instincts when senators or advisers warn him to be more cautious.

  • Trump controls the party. Republicans are only going to pick so many fights — and Trump's likely to get his way most of the time.
  • Transition sources tell us that if a senator votes against more than a nominee or two, that lawmaker or their allies could wind up with a Trump-backed primary opponent.

What we're watching: Now that once-skeptical senators are signaling they'll vote to confirm Hegseth, the most vulnerable nominees are Gabbard, who faces skepticism on the Senate Intelligence Committee, and Kennedy.

  • RFK's past support for abortion rights is an increasingly clear danger zone with Republican senators who have been strongly anti-abortion for their whole careers.
  • So Trump insiders are quietly wondering whether the anti-abortion movement will flex its muscle to try to sink Kennedy's nomination.
  • By contrast, Trump's natural allies haven't been voicing concerns about Patel.

The intrigue: RFK Jr. had pushed his daughter-in-law, former CIA officer Amaryllis Fox Kennedy, for deputy CIA director, as Axios first reported. We also scooped that RFK Jr. wanted her in the job partly to get to the bottom of whether the CIA was involved in the assassinations of his father and uncle.

  • We're told Fox Kennedy has been ruled out for the CIA job because of opposition on the Senate Intelligence Committee. But she could well wind up in another administration job — perhaps as part of Gabbard's team, or in a White House position.

The bottom line: A Mar-a-Lago source tells us that after last week's spree of adulation from tech moguls and his victory lap at the New York Stock Exchange, Time's Person of the Year is feeling "unassailable."

CEOs court Trump

14 December 2024 at 07:02

A Wall Street Journal headline calls this "The Week CEOs Bent the Knee to Trump."

Driving the news: Apple CEO Tim Cook dined at breezy Mar-a-Lago last night — a day after a pilgrimage to Trump's table on Thursday by Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Google cofounder Sergey Brin. Mark Zuckerberg flew in on Thanksgiving Eve. Jeff Bezos will sit down with Trump next week.


  • Meta! Amazon! OpenAI! Rat-tat, each donated $1 million to Trump's inaugural fund. "President Trump will lead our country into the age of AI, and I am eager to support his efforts to ensure America stays ahead," OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in a statement to Axios.
  • Trump basked in literal Wall Street applause as he rang the bell to open the New York Stock Exchange, beneath a giant Platon cover portrait of himself as "Person of the Year" in his beloved TIME magazine.

Why it matters: The bullish "Trump trade" shows markets, from stocks to crypto, believe he'll be good for business. But after staying arms-length during the campaign, CEOs aren't "leaving anything to chance," as The Journal puts it.

Being there: "When Donald Trump arrived at the New York Stock Exchange this week for a postelection victory lap, dozens of influential executives lined up to catch a glimpse of the man who holds the future of their businesses in his hands," The Journal reports.

  • "Gathered behind red velvet ropes were senior executives at Visa, Meta Platforms, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab and Citadel ... Real-estate and aerospace magnate Robert Bigelow was spotted in the crowd, as was investor [and Trump stan] Bill Ackman."

Between the lines: In tech, the "turnabout has been especially stark as some tech executives who made donation pledges or met with Mr. Trump this week had appeared to be avowed liberals," the N.Y. Times' Teddy Schleifer and David Yaffe-Bellany note.

Behind the Curtain: The Great Upheaval

12 December 2024 at 02:37

Governance, media, business and global geopolitics are all being reordered at breakneck speed — all simultaneously.

  • It's the Great Upheaval.

Why it matters: We're witnessing more change ... across more parts of life ... at more speed ... than ever before.


This means opportunity — and new threats or surprising shifts — pop up faster and faster. Anticipating change is tougher than ever, CEOs tell us.

  • There are several causes: a global populist surge, an AI arms race, shifting political alliances globally and domestically, and radical changes in how people worldwide get and share information.

President-elect Trump's governing plans are designed to exploit this emerging phenomenon — and speed it up, his advisers tell us. Elon Musk routinely tells Trump this will be the most dramatic transformation of business, governance and culture since the nation's founding. It's classic Musk salesmanship, as we've seen with cars: Promise vast, immediate change — regardless of feasibility.

  • Musk, newly appointed White House AI and crypto czar David Sacks, and many others see explosive change hitting energy, space, new technologies, crypto and tangential businesses.

The new Trump team believes government needs to be an accelerant, not a deterrent. This means making agencies leaner, at least in decision-making, and more biased toward pro-business action.

  • The risk: The shifts benefit the architects more than the general public. Musk, Sacks, the Trumps and many incoming leaders are super-wealthy, and deeply invested in the areas set to take flight.
  • This upheaval benefited Trump, but it very much transcends him and the coming four years of governance. The forces set in motion are bigger than one moment, or one man, or one nation.

Eric Schmidt, the former chairman and CEO of Google, told us: "I think the most important thing people don't know is that tech is now working at mega scale — 'everything everywhere all at once.'"

  • Schmidt, who just released a book on AI, "Genesis," with Craig Mundie and the late Henry Kissinger, added: "This is largely due to scale computing (huge computational and network resources) and the application of AI to everything."
  • For instance, Schmidt is the lead investor in Samaya AI, which is building a financial AI platform designed to leverage AI agents for complex, high-value tasks. "Businesses will make more money and be more efficient if they move quickly to adopt these AI agents," he said.

The big picture: This is a global phenomenon and intensifies — and raises — the stakes of the U.S. vs. China cold war for international dominance.

  • "China and the United States are winners," says geopolitical strategist Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, "since they're the countries most dominating the new technologies and relevant supply chains."

But there's broad agreement the Great Upheaval is hitting everyone, everywhere. This is just a small snapshot of the tectonic plates shifting at once:

  • AI arms race. This is the fixation of the most powerful people at the most powerful companies in the most powerful nations. The sheer magnitude of intellectual and financial investment guarantees massive disruption, even if it never meets the epic expectations. Bremmer tells us this is making tech leaders "geopolitical actors in their own right."
  • AI-adjacent surge. These technologies eat up unfathomable energy and data, driving everyone from Musk to Meta to invest billions in new sources of both. Much of this is U.S. investment, which will impact state economies and politics. "We need much more electricity in the U.S. to power these data centers," Schmidt says. "We can use foreign data centers but they are less secure."
  • Space war. Another AI adjacent boom. The future of warfare is robots, drones and satellites — not boots on the ground. The nearly trillion-dollar defense budget will shift in this direction. Think about the consequences: Oceans will no longer protect against invasion. A nation's tech will matter more than its conventional military might.
  • Information wars. We used to get most of our information from "the news." Now, the information in our life pours in from a host of random inputs: a podcast ... someone tweeting ... a Substack ... a snippet of video — the sum of all the noise in our day and on our phone.

What to watch: Pay attention to the info flows to particular populations. Our new information cascade is easier to manipulate than the traditional sources of rigorous reporting we all grew up on.

  • Our information diet is blowing up before our eyes, as attention shatters into scores of pieces based on location, job, wealth and politics. This dynamic is true around the globe, and is enhancing the power of authoritarian regimes.

Exclusive: RFK Jr.'s secret push to prove CIA killed uncle

11 December 2024 at 08:09

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. believes the CIA had a role in assassinating his uncle, President John F. Kennedy — part of RFK Jr.'s motivation for pushing his daughter-in-law, Amaryllis Fox Kennedy, for deputy CIA director, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: President-elect Trump feels indebted to RFK Jr., his pick for secretary of Health and Human Services, for his help in the election, and is eager to please him. But there's real drama behind the scenes about whether Fox Kennedy is the right choice for the CIA's No. 2 job.


  • RFK Jr. has been telling people that Fox Kennedy — his presidential campaign manager, who is married to his son Bobby Kennedy III — would help get to the bottom of the JFK assassination, two Republican sources told Axios.
  • "RFK believes that and wants to get to the bottom of it," one of the sources said, referring to well-worn but unproven theories that the CIA was behind the 1963 assassination of President Kennedy.

Between the lines: If Fox Kennedy were named deputy to John Ratcliffe, Trump's pick for CIA director, she'd be in a position to dig into what the CIA knows about the assassination — and potentially could urge the release of documents. Podcaster Joe Rogan and others have been agitating for that.

  • RFK Jr. has real influence. Trump has embraced the former Democrat — viewing him as a symbol of a broadening MAGA coalition and tapping him for his Cabinet.

The backstory: Kennedy has publicly embraced theories about the CIA being involved in the death of both his uncle and his father, Robert F. Kennedy.

  • "The evidence is overwhelming that the CIA was involved in the murder and in the cover-up," Kennedy said about his uncle's death in a podcast in May of last year.
  • He also said that there is "convincing" but "circumstantial" evidence that the CIA was involved in his father's death, as well.

Trump has promised to release the last of the JFK assassination files.

  • In August, just after he was endorsed by RFK Jr., Trump said: "I will establish a new independent presidential commission on assassination attempts, and they will be tasked with releasing all of the remaining documents pertaining to the assassination of President John F. Kennedy."

The big picture: Fox Kennedy worked as an undercover agent for the CIA for nearly a decade, and wrote a detailed memoir about her experience.

  • She reportedly submitted the memoir to the book publisher without getting sign-off from the CIA's Publication Review Board, stirring controversy within the agency.

What we're hearing: Concerns are already being stirred up over the possibility of Fox Kennedy getting the CIA gig.

  • A 2016 clip of an Al Jazeera interview with Fox Kennedy started making the rounds and raising eyebrows over the past 24 hours, four Senate GOP sources told Axios.
  • In the clip, Fox Kennedy cites her experience in the CIA and argues for more nuance in the conversation about ISIS. One of her conclusions: "The only real way to disarm your enemy is to listen to them."
  • Axios has reached out to Fox Kennedy for comment.

Scoop: Sen.-elect Jim Banks pushes GOP to be more pro-worker

11 December 2024 at 03:30

Sen.-elect Jim Banks (R-Ind.) will push fellow Republican senators to be more pro-worker and pro-American-industry and less pro-Wall Street, he makes clear in a new memo to colleagues, "Working Families First."

Why it matters: Banks, 45 — an Afghanistan war veteran who's now a Republican congressman, who had a coveted speaking slot at the GOP convention — is a rising conservative star who'll have a big voice in a Republican-controlled Washington.


What they're saying: Banks writes that Republicans can't take America's working and middle classes for granted, and "should focus on priorities like building out access to apprenticeships and technical training or expanding Pell Grant opportunities to prepare for the workforce."

  • Banks, who held an annual defense summit to Northeast Indiana's defense industry, adds: "Republicans owe the American people a detailed strategy to incentivize domestic investment ... and elevate the industrial base to the top tier of our national defense strategy."

Zoom in: Banks' key pillars are: "Fight for Working Families ... Strengthen American Industry ... Refocus the Pentagon on the Warfighter ... Restore Traditional Values and Stop Wokeness ... Put an End to the Border Crisis ... Defend American Workers From China ... Unleash U.S. Building Power ... Dismantle Needless Bureaucracy."

  • "America is a frontier nation," Banks writes, "one that shouldn't be held back by red tape that restrains our ability to build new roads, bridges, or other vital infrastructure. Smart regulatory reforms should be aimed at allowing us to make full use of our abundant natural resources and reforming our expensive and needlessly drawn-out federal permitting process."
  • "Republicans should prioritize slashing regulations so we can lower housing costs, create jobs, spur private investment, and ensure American communities can thrive."

Go deeper: Read the two-page memo.

Behind the Curtain: The Silicon swamp

10 December 2024 at 02:52

The incoming Trump administration will give Silicon Valley moguls unprecedented federal power, with tech-friendly officials and policies intertwined throughout government.

Why it matters: The tech economy's most aggressive disrupters want to apply their ethos and thinking to government. AI, crypto and move-fast, break-things thinking will be at the center of the new Washington agenda — with America's technological lead over China in the balance, and vast fortunes at stake.


A stunning alignment of people, power and momentum are all suddenly enlarging tech's tentacles:

  • President-elect Trump tapped David Sacks — a member of the "PayPal Mafia" of early executives, who became famous as part of the "All-In" podcast ensemble — for the new position of White House AI & crypto czar, with a mandate of "making America the clear global leader in both areas."
  • Elon Musk — who has been living at Mar-a-Lago and accompanied Trump to Paris for his return to the world stage — will be the second most powerful man in the world. He was this election cycle's biggest donor (and the biggest in at least the last four presidential cycles) — and is now co-architect with Trump of the new government, pushing relentlessly for "radical change" in government spending, mission and personnel.
  • Trump's NASA will be headed by Jared Isaacman, a tech billionaire who partnered with Musk's SpaceX to lead the first private spacewalk last September.

Musk will be joined by Vivek Ramaswamy, who became a billionaire as a biotech entrepreneur, in launching the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) — an advisory body named for a cryptocurrency, Dogecoin.

  • Marc Andreessen, one of the original internet moguls, and other tech leaders have literally been in the Trump transition offices in West Palm Beach, interviewing potential top appointees for the Pentagon, State Department and HHS, The New York Times reports.
  • Peter Thiel — the conservative venture capitalist and PayPal Mafia co-founder who was a mentor to Vice President-elect JD Vance — has allies in top Trump positions, including Jim O'Neill, former CEO of the Thiel Foundation, who has been named to be deputy HHS secretary.
  • Vance is a former venture capitalist who began his career working for Thiel. 
  • Even Jeff Bezos, Musk's rival in the race to Mars, is sounding Trumpy. Bezos said at last week's New York Times DealBook conference that he's "actually very optimistic" about Trump's plans: "He seems to have a lot of energy around reducing regulation. ... If I can help him do that, I'm gonna help him."

What they're saying: Joe Lonsdale — a venture capitalist and Palantir co-founder who advised the Trump transition on job candidates — told us: "This is a very optimistic administration, bringing in the talent that is willing to confront the waste, and figure out solutions — people who believe that despite the typical cynicism and nihilism of so many in D.C. that they can change things and that it matters."

  • "[M]any of my friends — some who have exited companies after working hard for years and want to give back more — plan to serve and work hard for free to support the efforts," Lonsdale added.
  • "I think a lot of people haven't properly understood that there's a huge difference between 'big tech' and 'the most competent builders in the innovation world.' The legacy [media] line is this is tech or Silicon Valley coming in. But most of these guys don't get along with [the] big tech crowd — these are many of our top builders."

Between the lines: Huge federal contracts will stem from Trump's disruption of government, many of which could benefit Musk and his buddies.

  • Defense acquisition is one of the arms of government that tech startups are eying most eagerly. Ramaswamy told Mike during an onstage interview at the Aspen Security Forum last week that he wants the Pentagon to move money away from legacy programs, and into disruptive technologies — investing more in drones and hypersonic missiles, "rather than in a wide range of other expenditures for new kinds of fighter jets or whatever that aren't the highest ... use of the dollar to even protect the best interests of the United States or to protect the United States itself."
  • HHS and the Department of Veterans Affairs are potential gold mines for contracts to modernize patient records.

Context: Silicon Valley also had tons of influence in the Obama administration, particularly early. But it was a very different crowd, including legendary venture capitalist John Doerr.

  • Now, a small but loud group of tech stars is coming to D.C. — with a libertarian ethos that doesn't always reflect the Valley as a whole.

What we're hearing: Trump has promised a "golden age of America." So anything that stokes market metrics will appeal to him — including cryptocurrencies. Oil and gas, financial services, private prisons and crypto are all part of the booming "Trump trade" by investors bullish on the new administration.

  • Trump took credit when the price of a single Bitcoin surged to a record high last week, with a Truth Social post saying: "CONGRATULATIONS BITCOINERS!!! $100,000!!! YOU'RE WELCOME!!!"

We're told to expect him to promote crypto-friendly regulations — starting with his choice of a crypto advocate and industry adviser, Paul Atkins, to chair the Securities and Exchange Commission, which oversees U.S. markets.

  • Part of Trump's charge to Sacks as emerging tech czar is to work on a "legal framework so the Crypto industry has the clarity it has been asking for."

The backstory: Crypto companies contributed one-third of all direct corporate contributions to super PACs in this election, "60 Minutes" found. In House races, industry donors had an 85% win rate among the 29 Republicans and 33 Democrats they backed.

  • Fifty days before the election, Trump launched a family cryptocurrency venture, World Liberty Financial.

What to watch: Trump "is going to be very focused on the price of Bitcoin," a top transition source told us.

  • "It's another stock market for him," the source explained, adding that Trump would love for Bitcoin to hit $150,000 early in his presidency.

The bottom line: Andreessen — co-founder of the iconic venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz — tweeted Sunday that "political power >> financial power every day of the week."

  • Axios' Dan Primack contributed reporting.

Milley among potential Trump targets who may get preemptive pardons

6 December 2024 at 03:47
President Biden lights the National Christmas on the Ellipse last evening. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Former Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Mark Milley is among those the White House is considering for preemptive pardons before President-elect Trump takes office.

The big picture: President Biden has discussed the possibility with staff, Axios is told. But there's no consensus proposal or list. As we told you yesterday, others being mentioned include Liz Cheney and Anthony Fauci.


Why it matters: The preemptive move would be a novel and risky use of the president's extraordinary constitutional power, AP reports.

  • White House lawyers are discussing pardons for people who haven't even been investigated, let alone charged.
  • Biden's team fears Trump and his allies, who have boasted of enemies lists and exacting "retribution," could launch investigations that would be reputationally and financially costly for their targets, even if they don't result in prosecutions.

Go deeper: Trump's "enemies within" list

Behind the Curtain: Biden's haunting twin sins

5 December 2024 at 02:58

President Biden's post-presidency now looks as bleak as his brutal final months.

  • Some top Democrats tell us they're so furious about Biden's abrupt, clumsy pardon of his son Hunter that they're threatening to withhold donations from his future presidential library.
  • "If they had their sh*t together, they would have been doing the work on this over the summer — right after he announced he was stepping aside," one well-wired Democrat told us. "Now, it's just too late. Hopefully they are rightsizing their expectations and budget!"

Why it matters: Biden, 82, will limp away from the limelight — widely disliked by the public, and now loathed by many Democrats who blame him for twin sins of selfishness: running again, then pardoning Hunter after repeatedly saying he wouldn't. Some in Biden's family have been shocked by the number of Democrats trashing his Hunter decision on the record, sources tell us. They expected some blowback — not a wicked backlash.

  • But even Biden's best friends think it was nuts to pardon Hunter as a solo act on the same evening he left for a long-promised three-day trip to Africa.

Zoom in: As cover, the president could have pardoned President-elect Trump at the same time — or pardoned Hunter along with dozens of people whose convictions appear to result from injustices.

  • The White House is considering "preemptive pardons to a range of current and former public officials who could be targeted" by the incoming Trump administration — potentially including Liz Cheney and Anthony Fauci, Politico's Jonathan Martin reported Wednesday.
  • White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Air Force One, en route to Angola, that they can expect more pardons and clemencies "at the end of this term."
  • A snap YouGov poll found 64% of Democrats approve of the pardon — a reversal of earlier Democratic sentiment. And Biden loyalists believe history will also credit Biden with his authentically historic legislative accomplishments, including gains on climate and other issues that Democrats had long fought for.

But the pardon uncorked the real rage that had been brewing among many powerful Democrats: his decision to wait so long to step aside. That kept Democrats from stress-testing potential nominees, and left Vice President Harris with a tiny window to make her case.

Axios is told two very close aides — deputy chief of staff Annie Tomasini and Anthony Bernal, First Lady Jill Biden's top adviser — will take the lead on planning for a presidential library, likely in Delaware.

  • A person familiar with post-presidency planning told us about potential backers closing their wallets: "No, that sentiment hasn't come up in a single donor conversation, and work is well underway."
  • Former President Obama, as a two-termer, announced a foundation to raise money and plan for a library three years before leaving office.

What we're hearing: Some longtime Biden defenders just want his administration to end as soon as possible. They understand the party's anger — but also have sympathy for "the boss," as aides often call him.

  • The timing of Hunter's pardon frustrated Democrats. Biden could have waited until closer to the inauguration. But he spared Hunter from going through sentencing for his convictions that had been scheduled for mid-December.

The long game: Democrats with potential presidential ambitions — including California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Colorado Gov. Jared Polis — used the pardon to start distancing themselves from Biden.

  • Some Democrats believe that by 2028, presidential aspirants will be running away from Biden's legacy rather than embracing it.

The other side: Eric Holder, who was attorney general under Obama, tweeted just over half an hour after the Hunter Biden pardon was announced that no U.S. attorney "would have charged this case given the underlying facts. ... Pardon warranted."

  • Former President Clinton defended Biden yesterday at the New York Times DealBook Summit: "I think that the president did have reason to believe that the nature of the offenses involved were likely to produce far stronger adverse circumstances for his son than they would for any normal person ... I wish he hadn't said he wasn't gonna do it. I think it does weaken his case."
  • Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) said on CNN that he urged Biden two weeks ago to issue the pardon: "He seemed to be a bit reticent about it."

What they're saying: Andrew Bates, White House senior deputy press secretary, told us that Biden "continues to deliver historic progress every day, and his legacy will benefit the American people for generations."

  • Bates said that includes "leading us out of COVID with a steady hand, bringing American manufacturing home from overseas, taking the most significant action to fight climate change in human history, beating Big Pharma so Medicare can negotiate lower drug costs, saving lives with the most comprehensive gun reform in 30 years, and rebuilding our nation with the biggest infrastructure package in 70 years."

The bottom line: A Biden friend said the president seems older by the day — slower in walk, more halting in talk. White House aides working with him daily on implementing the agenda dispute that characterization.

  • But to some Biden loyalists, his decline is a sad metaphor for his presidency: He started strong but will finish diminished.

Axios' Alex Thompson contributed reporting.

Trump's highest compliment

2 December 2024 at 03:28

Just for fun, our friends at Penta Group are keeping a spreadsheet of the accolades President-elect Trump bestows on his picks for Cabinet and staff in the emailed announcements.

Why it matters: "Great Honor" (capitalized) seems to be the highest compliment. "Pleased" is standard fare.


By the numbers: Behold, the "Trumpology tracker" data:

What they're saying: "There is one final decider and as his statements come out, you can see slight nuances in the language," Penta CEO Matt McDonald says.

  • "It kind of reminds me of the old Kremlinology of the Cold War, where people were parsing whatever public indicators there were to tell who was up or who was out."

Go deeper... Behind the Curtain: Trump's shock and awe

Behind the Curtain: Trump's shock and awe

1 December 2024 at 06:15

Two seemingly unrelated behind-the-scenes Mar-a-Lago dramas capture the shock soon to pound Washington:

  • Elon Musk, the most powerful and persistent voice in President-elect Trump's ear, has been relentless in pushing "radical reform" of, well, almost everything. As he sits next to Trump discussing administration picks, Musk often asks if the person embodies "radical reform" — massive cuts and blow-it-up-to-rebuild instincts.
  • Trump has been telling friends he denied Robert Lighthizer — his pro-tariff, China-hawk U.S. trade representative in the first term — a Cabinet role because he's "too scared to go big." He's loyal but too timid to take big, risky swings, Trump contends.

Why it matters: Trump advisers are running out of words to describe what's coming in January. They say he feels empowered and emboldened, vindicated and validated, and eager to stretch the boundaries of power.

  • He's egged on by Musk and others — and picking trusted brawlers for the toughest, most controversial tasks.

You got a big taste of this yesterday:

  1. Trump named real estate developer Charles Kushner — father of Trump's son-in-law, Jared — as ambassador to France. During the final month of his first term, Trump pardoned Charles Kushner, who had served federal time after being prosecuted by Chris Christie for preparing false tax returns, witness retaliation and making false statements to the FEC.
  2. Less than six hours later, Trump announced he picked Kash Patel, one of the hardest of his first-term hardliners, as FBI director. That means the incumbent, Chris Wray, who's just over seven years into a 10-year term (so the job could transcend any one presidency), will resign or be fired. A transition insider told us the Patel pick is a "personal message to the left that was cheering on Jack Smith" — the special counsel who was prosecuting Trump, and plans to step down before Trump can fire him.

Between the lines: Many in Trump's inner circle are gleeful at the aggressiveness of the Cabinet picks — former Fox News co-host Pete Hegseth, a decorated Army veteran who now faces questions about his treatment of women, to lead the Pentagon ... RFK Jr. to head HHS ... and former Democratic congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence.

  • All of them want to disrupt the organizations they've been picked to lead. Patel told podcaster Shawn Ryan: "I'd shut down the FBI Hoover Building on Day 1, and reopen the next day as a museum of the Deep State." Patel told MAGA podcast warrior Steve Bannon last year: "We're going to come after the people in the media who lied about American citizens who helped Joe Biden rig presidential elections. We're going to come after you, whether it's criminally or civilly."
  • The transition insider told us Trump "no longer listens to people, usually senators, who tell him 'that's not how it's done' or 'it doesn't work that way.' He no longer accepts that rationale."

"Every day is Christmas Day," Steve Bannon told us during an early flurry of announcements. "We are fixed bayonets on these nominations."

  • Bannon called Patel, who sells pro-Trump merch with "K$H" logos, his "One AND Only!!" choice to lead the FBI.
  • After yesterday's announcements, Bannon texted us, as if he were dictating old-school headlines: "Wildest Dreams — Now to Darkest Nightmare as the Established Order Goes Scorched Earth to Defeat the President During Confirmation ... MAGA Best @ Scorched Earth Battles."

Behind the scenes: Chemistry with Trump is a huge factor in the most controversial picks. "These are people that get him and understand him," a longtime Trump confidant told us. "Last time, there were lots of people who didn't understand the vision or buy into the vision."

  • Another transition source tells us Patel was close to being named deputy FBI director, which would have been much less confrontational. But the former frontrunner for the job, Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey, flunked his Mar-a-Lago meeting with Trump. Bailey "looked the part" but "just didn't have the presence in the room," we're told.

The big picture: A tweet by Musk this past week captured the Mar-a-Lago vibe. "It's this time or never," he said about structural reform of the federal government.

  • Musk, who said in 2018 that he was sleeping on a Tesla factory floor to stay on top of a production problem, has made Mar-a-Lago his new factory floor. He says the incoming administration is working "7 days a week."
  • We're told Musk is pressing to instantly upend agencies by keeping the fewest possible people — like he did when he bought Twitter, now X.

What they're saying: Trump confidants tell us their plans are radical only compared to the status quo. "We're looking for a return to normalcy," the insider said. "Nothing radical. Used to be common sense in this country (and every country) that you take care of your people first before getting generous with others."

  • "There are a million examples of things that need to be taken care of at home before we look past our shores, and we're gonna focus on those things," the insider added.

Reality check: Patel faces a potentially explosive Senate confirmation fight.

  • "Current and former law enforcement officials," The New York Times notes, "have worried that a second Trump term would feature an assault on the independence and authority of the F.B.I. and the Justice Department, and for many of them, Mr. Patel's ascension to the director's role would confirm the worst of those fears."

Scoop: Trump eyes AI czar to partner with Elon Musk for U.S. edge

26 November 2024 at 02:22

President-elect Trump is considering naming an AI czar in the White House to coordinate federal policy and governmental use of the emerging technology, Trump transition sources told Axios.

Why it matters: Elon Musk won't be the AI czar, but is expected to be intimately involved in shaping the future of the debate and use cases, the sources said.


Behind the scenes: We're told the role is likely but not certain.

  • Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy — who are leading Trump's new outside-government group, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) — will have significant input into who gets the role.
  • Musk — who owns a leading AI company, xAI — has feuded publicly with rival CEOs, including OpenAI's Sam Altman and Google's Sundar Pichai. Rivals worry Musk could leverage his Trump relationship to favor his companies.

The big picture: Trump, partly in response to the enlarged coalition that fueled his victory, plans to be super attentive to emerging technologies.

  • Trump's transition has vetted cryptocurrency executives for a potential role as the first-ever White House crypto czar, Bloomberg reported last week.
  • The AI and crypto roles could be combined under a single emerging-tech czar.

Zoom in: The AI czar will be charged with focusing both public and private resources to keep America in the AI forefront.

  • The federal government has a tremendous need for AI technology, and the new czar would likely work with agency chief AI officers (which were established in President Biden's AI executive order, and could survive Trump).
  • The person also would work with DOGE to use AI to root out waste, fraud and abuse, including entitlement fraud.
  • The office would spur the massive private investment needed to expand the energy supply to keep the U.S. on the cutting edge.

The backstory: The idea has been kicking around Trumpworld for several months, as the transition considered structural changes at the White House to prioritize staffing for Trump's priorities.

  • The model is similar to the National Energy Council that Trump said will be chaired by his designee for Interior secretary, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. Trump's Energy nominee, fracking executive Chris Wright, will be a member of the council.
  • Trump's announcement said the council "will consist of all Departments and Agencies involved in the permitting, production, generation, distribution, regulation, transportation, of ALL forms of American Energy."
  • "This Council will oversee the path to U.S. ENERGY DOMINANCE by cutting red tape, enhancing private sector investments across all sectors of the Economy, and by focusing on INNOVATION over longstanding, but totally unnecessary, regulation."

💬 Our thought bubble, from Axios technology policy reporter Maria Curi: An AI czar wouldn't require Senate consent, allowing the person to get to work on the administration's goals faster.

  • The Biden administration, facing a slim majority in the Senate and a tough confirmation battle, never filled the role of U.S. chief technology officer, created by President Obama.
  • Instead, other senior officials at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) took the lead. Vice President Harris played a key ambassador-like role on AI.

Scoop: Trump likely to tap loyalist Kash Patel for top FBI or DOJ post

25 November 2024 at 10:51

President-elect Trump is expected to appoint ultra loyalist Kash Patel to a high-profile position at either the FBI or the Justice Department, top transition sources tell Axios.

Why it matters: Patel would be a deeply controversial pick for any leadership role, especially FBI director. Given the hurdles Patel might face winning Senate confirmation, Trump is considering naming him deputy director or to an appointed investigative role within DOJ, the sources said.


State of play: A final decision hasn't been made. Trump still could change his mind, including by elevating Patel all the way to FBI director — a move that would send Gaetz-like shockwaves throughout Washington.

  • "Kash has a lot of allies who think placing him in a top role would be well-received by the Trump base, and send a clear message that Trump is serious about major reform to the justice and law-enforcement agencies," a transition source told Axios.
  • Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey also is being considered for FBI director after Trump chose Pam Bondi to lead the Justice Department. But a consensus pick hasn't emerged.

What they're saying: "President-elect Trump has made brilliant decisions on who will serve in his second administration at lightning pace. Remaining decisions will continue to be announced by him when they are made," Trump transition spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told Axios.

The big picture: Trump has signaled he will fire current FBI director Christopher Wray, whom he nominated in 2017 to serve a 10-year term after ousting James Comey.

  • Trump has viewed the FBI with deep distrust dating back to the bureau's 2016 probe into his campaign's alleged ties to Russia, which later turned into the Mueller investigation.
  • Trump sees the FBI and the Justice Department as the heart of the so-called "Deep State" — a cabal of bureaucrats that Trump believes sabotaged his first presidency — and is intent on rooting out non-loyalists in his second term.

Zoom in: Patel, who rose to prominence waging war against the Russia investigation as an aide to former Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.), shares those aims.

  • Patel served on Trump's National Security Council and later as chief of staff to acting Defense Secretary Christopher Miller, before publishing a book in 2023 that Trump praised as a "blueprint" for purging the government of "corrupt" actors.
  • Patel has openly discussed retaliation against Trump's political enemies in government and media, and wrote in his book: "[T]he FBI has become so thoroughly compromised that it will remain a threat to the people unless drastic measures are taken."
  • "No part of the FBI's mission is safe with Kash Patel in any position of leadership in the FBI, and certainly not in the deputy director's job," former FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe told CNN last week.

Flashback: Former CIA director Gina Haspel threatened to resign in December 2020 after Trump concocted a plan to install Patel as her deputy, as Axios first reported.

Zoom out: Bailey is also a Trump loyalist, but his experience and traditional conservative credentials would likely pave a smoother path to confirmation by the Senate.

Between the lines: In a Cabinet stocked with a dizzying array of ideological rivals, the FBI has emerged as the final battleground in a fierce tug-of-war between MAGA and traditional Republicans.

  • Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) was believed to be among the finalists for FBI director, before MAGA influencers intervened to kill his possible nomination.
  • "Just spoke to President Trump regarding Mike Rogers going to the FBI. It's not happening — in his own words, "I have never even given it a thought," Trump aide Dan Scavino tweeted as the rebellion brewed last week.

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