Last January at CES, Microsoft Chief Marketing Officer Yusuf Mehdi declared 2024 the "year of the AI PC." And whether you believe that prediction came true or not—many new PCs come with AI-accelerating neural processing units (NPUs) onboard, but far from all of them—you can't deny that Microsoft did try very hard to make it happen.

This year, Mehdi is back with another prediction: 2025 will be "the year of the Windows 11 PC refresh." This year is also, not coincidentally, the year that most Windows 10 PCs will stop receiving new security updates.

Mehdi's post includes few, if any, new announcements, but it does set the tone for how Microsoft is handling the sunsetting of Windows 10, attempting to strike a balance between carrot and stick. The carrots include Windows 11's new features (both AI and otherwise) and the performance, security, and battery life benefits inherent to brand-new PC hardware. The stick is that Windows 10 support ends in October 2025, and Microsoft is not interested in extending that date for the general public or in expanding official Windows 11 support to older PCs.

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For most people, Windows 10 security updates are slated to stop on October 14, 2025, just over 10 months from today. That could end up being a serious security problem, given that Windows 10 is still the version used by a large majority of the world's PCs.

Users will be able to buy a one-year reprieve for $30, and businesses and other organizations will have the option to pay for two more years after that. But the easiest and cheapest way out of the problem—an upgrade to Windows 11, which is still free for Windows 10 PCs that can run it—still remains out of reach for many active PCs because of Windows 11's more stringent system requirements.

Microsoft has reiterated this week that it has no plans to loosen those requirements to boost Windows 11's adoption numbers, focusing particularly on the need for a TPM 2.0 device. Short for Trusted Platform Module, a TPM stores encryption keys and performs other cryptographic functions, and Windows uses it to seamlessly decrypt your PC's disk at boot, among other things. A TPM 2.0 module is a "non-negotiable" requirement for boosting Windows 11's security baseline, says Microsoft, and that apparently won't be changing.

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Windows 10's free, guaranteed security updates stop in October 2025, less than a year from now. Windows 10 users with supported PCs have been offered the Windows 11 upgrade plenty of times before. But now Microsoft is apparently making a fresh push to get users to upgrade, sending them full-screen reminders recommending they buy new computers.

The reminders, which users have seen within the last few days, all mention the end of Windows 10 support but otherwise seem to differ from computer to computer. My Ars colleague Kyle Orland got one focused on Windows 11's gaming features, while posters on X (formerly Twitter) got screens that emphasized the ease of migrating from old PCs to new ones and other Windows 11 features. One specifically recommended upgrading to a Copilot+ PC, which supports a handful of extra AI features that other Windows 11 PCs don't, but other messages didn't mention Copilot+ specifically.

None of the messages mention upgrading to Windows 11 directly, though Kyle said his PC meets Windows 11's requirements. These messages may be intended mostly for people using older PCs that can't officially install the Windows 11 update.

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