• The infamous "lock-in" effect that's restricting home supply may be going away next year.
• Realtor.com's chief economist expects more homeowners to list their homes for sale in 2025.
• High levels of home equity and life changes will encourage home sales, Danielle Hale said.

2024 has been a tough year for homebuyers.

Affordability levels are still low with elevated home prices and mortgage rates. A huge jump in mortgage rates to around 6.8% today from under 3% in 2022 has also created a "lock-in" effect, where existing homeowners don't want to sell into a higher mortgage rate environment than when many of them bought — further limiting home inventory coming onto the market and sending prices soaring even higher.

There's reason to be optimistic, though. The US housing market will see more favorable buying conditions in 2025, according to Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. Hale sees two trends that will help encourage existing homeowners to put their homes up for sale.

Existing homeowners have built up home equity

Existing homeowners have reaped big home equity gains in recent years thanks to rapidly rising home values.

Homeowners are also increasing their home equity by making monthly mortgage payments, as those who bought houses a few years ago have had the opportunity to make a sizable dent in their mortgage, Hale said. Homeowners with a smaller mortgage balance may be less sensitive to the higher interest-rate environment of today's housing market.

According to Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, homeowners are feeling richer now thanks to the home equity they've accumulated over the last few years of dizzying home price increases. As a result, more listings are being put on the market.

Homeowners can put their home equity to work when they move and buy a new house.

"If they're using their home equity to make a move, that enables them to either be a cash buyer or take out a very small mortgage," Hale said. "That gives them a bit more flexibility in today's market."

Mortgage rates may become less important to buyers and sellers

Homebuying decisions can also be influenced by factors other than mortgage rates or home prices, according to Hale.

The more time that passes since a homeowner's initial purchase, the more likely it is that they'll have a life change requiring them to move, regardless of the cost of moving, Hale said.

People buy houses for reasons other than financial ones, Hale pointed out. Big life changes that could spur a move include a new job, retirement, marriage, or having children.

"All of these can be reasons that people might make a move even if the costs are more expensive to buy a home," Hale said.

Additionally, consumers might be getting accustomed to high mortgage rates, according to Redfin.

"Buyers realized mortgage rates may not drop below 5%, and probably not below 6%, in the near future," Mimi Trieu, a Redfin real-estate agent, said. Existing homeowners holding off on moving due to high mortgage rates may soon give up on waiting it out.

A more "buyer-friendly" housing market

These changes won't be immediate, but they will have a noticeable impact on the housing market, according to Hale. She believes that the housing market is trending in a more "buyer-friendly direction."

"It's going to take more time," Hale said of the lock-in effect. "But as it diminishes, that's going to free up more sellers."

Lower interest rates — and subsequently, lower mortgage rates — would certainly speed up the erosion of the lock-in effect, Hale said. However, even if mortgage rates hover around the 6% range in 2025, which is what Realtor.com expects, the lock-in effect will still fade.

Homebuyers could see a notable change by the end of next year, Hale predicted.

"In mid-2024, 84% of homeowners with a mortgage had a mortgage rate under 6%. We think that by the end of 2025, that share will be 75%," Hale said.

• Real-estate agent Dana Bull advises submitting home offers two days before Christmas.
• In general, buyers are distracted during the holidays, so it can be a good time to score a deal.
• Another good window of opportunity is the Fourth of July weekend.

If real-estate investor and agent Dana Bull was looking to expand her portfolio, she'd be putting in offers in late December — specifically, two days before Christmas.

December 23 is her "favorite day of the year to submit an offer," she told Business Insider. "I find that sellers are very interested in getting a deal done going into the holidays or going into this year."

Bull works in real estate in a variety of capacities: She's a licensed agent, does real-estate consulting and coaching, and is a seasoned investor who owns multi-family and single-family homes throughout Massachusetts.

She's learned that if you want to land a good deal on a property, timing matters.

"It's always a good time to be deal hunting during a distracted market," Bull said — and people tend to be distracted over the holidays. "Most people are just in coast mode, but if you're not in coast mode or if you can take yourself out of coast mode, this is such a great time."

Starting a negotiation a few days before Christmas is a good time for several reasons.

"In general, people are in good spirits, and sellers tend to feel a sense of relief if they receive an offer because they usually aren't expecting one," she said. "Christmas Eve puts a deadline to get things wrapped up with the negotiating and creates a sense of urgency."

She says she would avoid submitting an offer on actual holidays — "it's a bit rude and unrealistic to get a response" — but the days following Christmas are fair game. "I almost always submit an offer that week. It's a time of great reflection, and sellers are generally motivated to put a deal together so they can enter the new year with a plan in place."

The holiday window of opportunity is small. A couple of weeks into January, "it's like a light switch comes back on," she said, noting that mid-January is one of her busiest times of the year for consultations. "What I've noticed is this herd mentality where everybody just ebbs and flows at the same time, so if you can be flowing when everybody else is ebbing, this is when you can negotiate."

That said, "You don't want to make a bad purchase just because it's a good time of year," Bull added, but if you can carve out time to look for deals when most other investors aren't, you could be rewarded.

"There are always these pockets, like the Fourth of July is another great time where people have signed off, and I'm almost always working with somebody that weekend to try to scrounge something up."

Seasonal swings aren't a myth, and they can be significant. In her market, for example, "Massachusetts has huge seasonal swings in average pricing by like $100,000."

Regardless of your market, however, in the winter, "prices always come down," Bull explained. "And then they're going to start to climb. Then, in the summer they come back down again and they climb again in the fall. Every year it's the same quarterly trend, so if you are looking to buy a house, right now is one of the best times."