• China could destroy or neutralize US and allied airpower in a war with fewer shots than the other way around, a new report argues.
• China has prioritized hardening and expanding its airfields in the region at a faster rate than the US and its allies.
• The report's authors argue the US needs to prioritize defense, hardening airbases, and evolving its force.

In a war, China could suppress or destroy critical American airpower in the Indo-Pacific region with far fewer shots than it would take the US and its allies to do the same to Beijing's air forces, a new research report argues.

The report's authors note that China has been working faster than the US to harden its airbases and diversify its combat aircraft in the region, creating an imbalance in China's favor. American airfields are vulnerable to attack in a conflict, such as a fight over Taiwan.

A new Hudson Institute analysis from researchers Thomas Shugart and Timothy Walton highlights the serious threat facing US installations in the Pacific and echoes Department of Defense concerns about growing China's arsenal of missiles and those of US lawmakers about inadequate defenses.

In the report, Shugart and Walton write that China "has made major investments to defend, expand, and fortify" its airfields and more than doubled its hardened aircraft shelters and unhardened individual aircraft shelters over the past decade. China has also added to its taxiways and ramp areas. All of these efforts effectively give the Chinese military more places to protect and launch combat aircraft in a potential fight.

US efforts have been modest by comparison. And its military airfield capacity, including that of allies in the region, is roughly one-third of China's; without South Korea, that drops to one-quarter, and without the Philippines, it falls to just 15 percent.

The Air Force has been looking at dispersion and atypical runways as part of its Agile Combat Employment efforts, but there is still a notable shortfall that could be exploited.

This imbalance means it would take China far fewer missiles or airstrikes to neutralize US and allied airfields than it would the other way around, Shugart and Walton write. A preemptive strike, surprise being important in Chinese military doctrine, could catch the US and its allies off guard and give China an edge in air operations.

"Strategically, this destabilizing asymmetry risks incentivizing the PRC to exercise a first-mover advantage," the report says. "China could initiate a conflict if it sees an opportunity to nullify adversary airpower on the ramp."

Shugart wrote in 2017 that this is a real possibility, "particularly if China perceives that its attempts at deterrence of a major US intervention — say in a cross-strait Taiwan crisis or in a brewing dispute over the Senkaku Islands — have failed."

China has not been shy about its investments in being able to pull off such a strike, either. Beijing has invested heavily in its rocket force, with the Pentagon's annual report on Chinese military power documenting staggering growth in the number of stockpiled missiles and launchers, including the weapons it would need to hit US installations in the region. Satellite images have also documented mock American military assets, such as aircraft carriers, widely seen as missile targets.

For the conflicts and airpower operations in the Middle East, the US military enjoyed the ability to deploy to forward airfields uncontested, but the threat environment is different in the Pacific. A war with China would be very different.

But despite the significant concerns both within the Pentagon and Washington about vulnerabilities in US airbases, "the US military has devoted relatively little attention to countering these threats compared to its focus on developing modern aircraft," Shugart and Walton write. Older and newer aircraft differ in the air but are equally vulnerable on the ground.

The Ukraine war and ongoing fights in the Middle East have demonstrated that airfields are high-priority targets.

In order to counter the threat China poses, the Hudson report argues the US should invest further in active defenses for its air operations, harden its airfields to maintain resilience, and accelerate its efforts to field aircraft and unmanned systems that can operate from short or damaged runways or don't require runaways altogether, efforts fitting with ACE operations.

"Executing an effective campaign to enhance the resilience of US airfield operations will require informed decisions to prioritize projects — and sustained funding," Shugart and Walton write. "What is clear, however, is that US airfields do face the threat of attack, and the current DoD approach of largely ignoring this fact invites PRC aggression and risks losing a war." 

• Drone sightings across the US have captivated many Americans and sparked widespread speculation.
• The sightings have also put a spotlight on airspace management strategies in the US.
• Experts say the focus should be on improved regulation and countermeasures instead of hysteria.

A recent wave of mysterious drone sightings across the US has, to a certain extent, kick-started a long-overdue discussion on drone technology and airspace management.

These drone sightings have captured national attention, and the public is now paying more attention to drone activity near US military bases. Federal agencies are talking to the public about drone issues. And there's more public discussion of congressional legislation to boost federal authority as the government says it's hamstrung in its ability to respond to drone threats.

"There's a fundamental notion that drones present a very, very new expanded type of threat," Doug Birkey, executive director of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, told Business Insider, noting that the US largely lacks "the tactics and the procedures to deal with this."

Birkey said many people are "overplaying" the mystery behind the latest drone sightings. But the resulting buzz is driving conversations about counterstrategies and systems that "should have happened a long time ago."

Officials from the White House, FBI, DHS, DoD, and the FAA have urged Congress to "enact counter-UAS legislation when it reconvenes that would help extend and expand existing counter-drone authorities to identify and mitigate any threat that may emerge." This has been a recurring topic in press briefings in recent weeks.

"The good news is that technology largely exists" to address the challenges presented by drone tech, Birkey said. "We just have to get serious about going after it and then having the procedures down to be smart about it."

The latest drone drama

In mid-November, unidentified aircraft were first seen flying over New Jersey. They drew national attention as reported sightings extended to Maryland, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New York, among other states, this month.

It wasn't until worry and wild speculation about the drones reached a fever pitch that agencies began a more organized effort to communicate. In the initial absence, others filled the void with conspiracy theories, a major one being that the drones were launched from an Iranian drone mothership off the US East Coast.

The federal government has shot many of these assertions down, saying they're not of foreign origin and not a threat.

The White House, FBI, Homeland Security, Pentagon, and FAA have said that all the evidence available indicates the drone sightings are a mixture of "lawful commercial drones, hobbyist drones, and law enforcement drones, as well as manned fixed-wing aircraft, helicopters, and stars mistakenly reported as drones."

Though not nefarious, US officials said they "recognize the concern among many communities" and the "irresponsible" nature of the drone activity near restricted airspace and infrastructure, including military bases and civilian airports.

Things have "sort of moved to a point of hysteria," said Stacie Pettyjohn, the director of the defense program at the Center for a New American Security. She said that "the public has gotten really agitated because of the perceived novelty of drones or the danger associated with them."

She said "people seeing drones everywhere" are "starting to conflate just normal air traffic and anything in the sky and assuming that something nefarious or strange is happening."

But even as the government has attempted to quell concerns, skepticism remains, leading some to push for greater clarity on this issue so that drones can be discussed rationally.

William Austin, a drone expert and president of Warren County Community College, said the federal government needs to be clear with the public in this situation.

He wrote in a recent op-ed that "the public needs clear, authoritative communication: there is no credible evidence of large drones operating over New Jersey,"

Austin argued in his article that "the drone industry has too much to offer — cutting-edge technology, job creation, and life-saving applications — to be derailed by myths." He said, "We need facts, not speculation."

Drones are becoming prolific

Surging interest and investment in new drone tech have catalyzed rapid advancements, transforming the technology at an unprecedented pace in recent years.

Increasing competition in the global market is making drones more accessible, affordable, and user-friendly, expanding their use beyond traditional military and defense applications to sectors like agriculture, logistics, and recreation.

"It's part of the changing technological landscape that extends beyond just the military," Pettyjohn said. "It's not just the realm of the government anymore to have really sophisticated capabilities. It's just part of everyday society."

Commercial and civilian drones only began to emerge in the early 2000s, leaving the general public largely unaccustomed to encountering them in their daily lives.

The high-profile Chinese spy balloon incident last year that ended with it being shot down by a US fighter jet spotlighted aerial surveillance as a potential threat to public safety and national security. Terrorist and insurgent operations, as well as the widespread use of drone warfare in Ukraine, have also heightened fears regarding their possible weaponization.

And there are real risks, regardless of whether drone activity is malicious. As drone technology proliferates further, activities around military bases and airfields are becoming a "huge problem" for the US, Mark Cancian, a defense expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a retired US Marine Corps colonel, recently told BI.

A US military base in Ohio briefly closed its airspace after small drones were spotted in the area, and the runways at a New York airport were also briefly shut down due to nearby drone activity.

Sociologist and New York Times columnist Zeynep Tufekci wrote that the hysteria and drama of the recent drone situation aside, "unauthorized drones are a problem, and there does need to be better regulation and technology to deal with them. Let's hear about that, then, rather than this mindless dangerous panic."

• A US base briefly closed its airspace heading into the weekend due to heavy nearby drone activity.
• It's the latest military installation to report drone sightings nearby.
• The sightings reflect a growing challenge, but responding to the drone issue isn't easy.

A US military base in Ohio briefly closed its airspace heading into the weekend after small drones were spotted in the area, officials confirmed to Business Insider on Monday.

Wright-Patterson Air Force Base is the latest military installation to report drone activity in its vicinity, though, unlike some of the others, it actually interfered with operations. The development, like incidents at civilian airfields, speaks to a growing problem: a proliferation of drones that can spy on military bases or hazard their operations.

Drones, especially small quadcopters, can be easily purchased for a few hundred dollars, and as the war in Ukraine has shown, they are surprisingly versatile. In the hands of an extremist, spy or even a careless enthusiast, these systems pose a threat the Defense Department is scrambling to counter as it increasingly factors them into day-to-day operations, from battle to base security.

Drone sightings near US military bases

Within the past few weeks, there have been multiple confirmed drone sightings near two military installations in New Jersey, as well as reports of drones near US Coast Guard operations and critical infrastructure. The Department of Defense hasn't expressed great concern, saying it doesn't have evidence the drones are a threat, but it has expressed frustration over this activity. One official called the activity "irresponsible."

The development follows an unusual recent trend, with suspected drones being spotted up and down the US East Coast. In recent years, there has also been a growing trend of drone sightings and unidentified aerial phenomena near American bases, both at home and abroad.

At Wright-Patterson, small drone activity was detected around the base on Friday, leading the airfield management team to close the airspace into early Saturday over "aviation safety concerns," an Air Force spokesperson told BI.

Wright-Patterson hosts the Air Force Research Laboratory, the 655th Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Wing, and the 445th Airlift Wing, as well as other units. The base and its two lengthy runways make it a key installation for the US military.

The Air Force spokesperson said that, in general, depending on the facility, there could be many military aircraft taking off and landing. Some of the sites also host sensitive assets, making it a risk for operators to fly small drones in the vicinity. Drones don't have to be malign to be a problem.

"To date, installation leaders have determined that none of the incursions impacted base residents, facilities, or assets," Bob Purtiman, the chief of public affairs for Wright-Patterson, told BI.

"We are taking all appropriate measures to safeguard Wright-Patterson and its residents. Our units continue to monitor the airspace and are working with local authorities to ensure the safety of base personnel, facilities, and assets," he added.

The War Zone, a military news site, first reported on the drone incursions at Wright-Patterson, sharing an air traffic controller recording that reported "heavy" drone activity.

The incident at Wright-Patterson followed recent drone sightings at other military installations in New Jersey: Picatinny Arsenal and Naval Weapons Station Earle. These came amid a string of reported drone activity along the East Coast over the past month.

A growing problem

A Joint Staff spokesperson told reporters on Saturday the New Jersey sightings are "not a new issue for us. We've had to deal with drone incursions over our bases for quite a time now."

There have been a number of sightings of suspected drones and other unidentified flying objects around important military installations in recent years. Just last week, for instance, drones were reportedly spotted above an American base in Germany. Some have been spotted near US operations in the UK, as well as a base in Virginia, among other stateside locations.

The threat levels vary. Drones are readily available to both malign actors and harmless hobbyists alike. The challenge is that it can sometimes be difficult to distinguish which it is, and drones lower the barrier for entry on aerial surveillance and more.

"This has become a huge problem for both military and civilian airfields and will get worse as drone usage proliferates further," Mark Cancian, a defense expert and retired US Marine Corps colonel, told BI. "It certainly has national security implications as many drones fly over sensitive military facilities like Wright-Patterson."

With drones flying near civilian airports, Cancian, now a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that such activity could be a safety hazard and interfere with the flow of operations. This can be a huge disruption at a major airport with nationwide effects.

Amid the recent East Coast drone drama, runway operations at a New York airport were briefly shut down. And over the weekend, there was also a "hazardous drone operation" incident near a Boston airport.

"For military airfields, the greater concern is espionage and improper disclosure of sensitive information," Cancian said, but "safety and disruption of operations are also important."

The Pentagon recognizes the risks posed by growing drone usage and is seeking out ways to better its approach to counter unmanned systems, as a new counter-drone strategy shows.

"If a determination is made that unauthorized drones are conducting any malign or malicious activity," Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said Monday, "commanders are authorized to take appropriate action to mitigate and counter these unmanned systems."

But in the US, as the Joint Staff spokesperson said, the military is limited in what it can do beyond the walls of its bases. It doesn't enjoy the same freedom of operation in the US that it has at some bases overseas. It can't simply open fire, especially near civilian areas. Ryder indicated something has to be a "clear and present danger" before it comes to that.

Officials from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Department of Homeland Security also said during Saturday's call that they are similarly limited in their ability to respond to reported drone sightings. They urged Congress to pass legislation that would expand federal agencies' counter-drone authorities.

"The challenge for airspace management is how to deter or defeat such incursions without endangering the surrounding civilian communities or legitimate air traffic. That rules out everything kinetic," Cancian said.

"Electronic interference or, in extremis, some laser system might be the solution. Those are just now being fielded in the military," he added. "It would be years before they are widely available to military and civilian facilities."