In less than a month, TikTok could be banned in the U.S. — and the fate of a multibillion-dollar creator economy is at stake.

Why it matters: The global influencer industry is worth about $250 billion, Goldman Sachs estimates. TikTok is where the big money is, and where many influencers have built their largest and most loyal followings.

For many influencers, “this could be an extinction-level event,” says James Nord, founder and CEO of Fohr, an influencer marketing company.

Driving the news: The Supreme Court will hear arguments on Jan. 10 over whether the law to force a sale of TikTok from its parent company or face a ban is constitutional, Axios' Maria Curi notes.

• TikTok is racing against the clock with a Jan. 19 ban looming.

Lawmakers have told Google and Apple to be ready to remove it from their U.S. app stores on Jan. 19.

• People who have already downloaded TikTok can keep using it for some time, but it will no longer update, making the app buggy and eventually useless.

Zoom out: TikTok has a stunning 170 million users in the U.S., and just 32% of Americans support a ban, according to a Pew Research Center survey.

• But lawmakers and experts have identified national security reasons to restrict the app as long as it holds its connection to China, including the spread of misinformation and espionage.

Zoom in: Some TikTok personalities are attempting to get ahead of the ban by asking followers to find them on Instagram or YouTube.

• "I don't think there's longevity on this app in the United States," Chris Burkett, a lifestyle influencer with 1.3 million TikTok followers, said in a video urging people to follow him on Instagram.
• "There's been so many false alarms ... Anyways, I very much do exist on another place ... so if you want to keep in touch," Audrey Peters, a fashion and beauty influencer with a million followers, said in a video.

But for many others and the brands they work with, business is humming along as usual. “Everything’s kind of going status quo. Contracts are still moving,” Nord says.

• Just 1 in 3 beauty influencers said they were somewhat or very worried about a ban in an October Fohr survey. “It’s a product of them talking about this for so many years but it not happening,” says Nord.
• In some contracts, brands and influencers are agreeing to work together on Instagram if TikTok goes away, but that’s an imperfect strategy.

Reality check: Many influencers’ Instagram or YouTube followings are orders of magnitude smaller than their TikTok audiences.

• Many don’t even have large enough followings on those other platforms to get brand deals or make money from content.

Case in point: Fohr analyzed the TikTok and Instagram accounts of nearly 23,000 creators in its network.

• 39% of them had more followers on TikTok than on Instagram, and the average difference in number of followers was +182,000 on TikTok.

What's next: If TikTok is banned and eventually becomes obsolete, the influencers who relied on it for income likely won't get unemployment or other benefits.

• “This could be unique in that I don’t know if there’s been a law since prohibition that will shut down so many small businesses overnight,” Nord says. “And as of now, the government is not offering any support.”

Colleges across the country are shutting down expensive and expansive diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, some of which were put in place just a few years ago.

Why it matters: While students, faculty, administrators and experts all acknowledge DEI programs can be flawed, bans are prompting colleges to close up cultural centers and rewrite course catalogs — moves that can interfere with student life and threaten free speech.

The big picture: DEI programs, many of which sprung up in 2020 amid Black Lives Matter protests and a national reckoning on race, often involve running cultural centers, ensuring diversity in hiring and developing training programs to promote inclusiveness.

• They have become a favorite target for Republican governors, and President-elect Trump has promised a nationwide crackdown.
• "If you look at the way this has actually been implemented across the country, DEI is better viewed as standing for discrimination, exclusion and indoctrination," Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said in April when signing the state's ban on using public funds for DEI programs.
• Texas, Iowa and Utah have also banned DEI offices and initiatives at universities. Alabama has restricted them.

Driving the news: Institutions in these states are responding with sweeping changes — many of which are broader than what the laws dictate, says Jeremy Young, the Freedom to Learn program director for PEN America.

• The University of Utah and Weber State University in Ogden both eliminated all their cultural centers — including resource centers for Black students, LGBTQ students and women, the Salt Lake Tribune reports.
• Administrators at the University of North Texas made hundreds of edits to the titles and descriptions of courses to take out references to race and equity, according to the Texas Tribune.
• The University of North Florida closed its cultural centers and eliminated its interfaith and intercultural centers, which were open to all students.

What we’re watching: Universities in states that have not yet implemented DEI bans are also cutting programs. “There’s an epidemic of pre-compliance and over-compliance, and that’s really hurting students,” Young says.

• The University of Missouri got rid of its DEI office to pre-empt anti-DEI legislation, notes Inside Higher Ed.
• The University of Michigan, which has one of the most ambitious and well-funded DEI programs in the country, is axing diversity statements in faculty hiring and promotion, the New York Times reports.

"What's important going forward is not to throw the baby out with the bathwater," says Paul Brest, a professor emeritus at Stanford Law School, who recently co-authored a column on the drawbacks of DEI programs.

• Brest argued that DEI programs at schools like Stanford are too ideological and prioritize discrimination against some groups but not others, such as Jewish students.
• Despite those qualms, Brest tells Axios initiatives like cultural centers are key in fostering community.
• “The main goal is for students to feel like they really belong on campus. If you don’t feel like you belong, you’re much less likely to be academically engaged and successful.”

Long-form entertainment is out and snack-sized media is in for the next generation of kids, teens and young adults.

Why it matters: Smartphones, social media and constant internet access have changed the way we think — and that’s eroding young people’s willingness to focus.

• "Boredom comes much easier now," says Bonnie Nagel, a behavioral neuroscientist at Oregon Health & Science University.

Driving the news: English professors across the country say college students are struggling to finish books, The Atlantic reports. That’s in part because middle and high school teachers have noted kids’ attention problem and started assigning poems, short stories or excerpts of books instead of full works.

• Kids shows are getting shorter. Episodes of Bluey, one of the most popular kids shows, are about seven minutes long on average, Vulture notes.
• Pop songs are simpler, shorter and more repetitive to give them a better chance of going viral on TikTok and Instagram in snippet form, Forbes reports.

Zoom out: Studies have linked excessive screen time to problems focusing in kids.

• All of us — including kids and teens — have a world of entertainment at our fingertips, and we can just keep scrolling if something doesn’t grab us.
• "There’s an adaptation of our attention to require rapid content change or really exciting content," Nagel says.

It's not that young people today aren't learning.

• They are arguably processing more information on a wider variety of topics than older generations did at the same age.
• But absorbing all that information in bite-sized pieces can prevent them from sharpening their focus.

The stakes: "In life there are going to be many times where we’re going to have to pay attention to slower things or things that are more boring, where our attention skills are going to be required," Nagel says.

• "This is creating real problems for teachers," says Daniel Willingham, a psychologist at the University of Virginia. "We all lose if teachers feel like everything needs to be this snack-sized presentation."
• These trends also raise questions about the next generation’s ability to focus in the workplace.
• Plus, the turn toward shorter, snappier content means young people might miss out on a great deal of art — from epic novels to slow-burn movies.

What to watch: We know that kids and teens’ willingness to pay attention for long periods of time is dwindling, but the research doesn’t show — nor is it likely — that kids are any less able to focus than their parents or grandparents, Willingham says.

• Learning to pay attention is just another skill that kids growing up in the world of devices and social media might have to work harder to hone.

The House GOP's decision to bar Congress' first-ever transgender member from women's bathrooms spotlights a national trend: Republicans see targeting trans rights as a sure-fire political winner.

Why it matters: Republicans are treating their victory as a mandate to further restrict trans people from accessing bathrooms, youth sports and gender-affirming care, citing President-elect Trump's closing message: "Kamala is for they/them, President Trump is for you."

• Democrats, paralyzed by post-election finger-pointing, have been blindsided by the apparent potency of Republicans' anti-trans fear-mongering.
• Meanwhile, the trans community — already a historically marginalized population — has been left wondering who exactly is standing with them.

Driving the news: House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) announced Wednesday that transgender people are henceforth banned from bathrooms on the House side of the Capitol complex that correspond to their gender identity.

• Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) had introduced a bill to that effect and made clear she was targeting her soon-to-be House colleague. "Sarah McBride doesn't get a say in this," Mace said. "If you're a biological man, you shouldn't be in women's restrooms."
• Even moderate Republicans told Axios' Andrew Solender they were unlikely to oppose Mace's bill. "I mean — a presidential election may have been decided on this issue," one said.

Zoom out: This goes far beyond Washington. There was a huge spike in anti-trans legislation at the state and federal level last year, and a record 665 such bills have been introduced this year, per the Trans Legislation Tracker.

• The bills target a range of things from youth sports participation to bathrooms to pronouns in classrooms.
• Republicans introduced 32 anti-trans bills just on the first day of the pre-filing period ahead of Texas' 2025 legislative sessions, journalist Erin Reed reports.
• Ohio's legislature passed a statewide bathroom ban on college campuses on its first day back in session after the election last week.

The other side: While Democrats were appalled by Mace's bill — "This is not just bigotry, this is just plain bullying," Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) told Solender — they're divided over how to handle the broader issue.

• In a closed-door meeting last week, Democratic senators lamented that they'd felt ambushed by relentless anti-trans campaign ads, Axios' Stephen Neukam reported.
• One ad targeting defeated Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) said he voted for "allowing trans biological men in girls' locker rooms" and "sex change surgery for kids." Brown released an ad of his own asking voters to "reject the lies."
• Vice President Harris mostly ignored Trump's anti-trans ads, which aired on repeat in swing states in the closing weeks and hardly mentioned the word "trans" during the campaign.
• Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.), meanwhile, faced calls to resign from within his own party after telling the New York Times after the election: "I have two little girls, I don't want them getting run over on a playing field by a male or formerly male athlete, but as a Democrat I'm supposed to be afraid to say that."

Reality check: Republicans have bet on the anti-trans agenda as a winning strategy, even when the issues on the table affect a tiny share of Americans — and the population targeted by the bills is among the likeliest to suffer from anxiety and depression.

• "It's amazing how strongly people feel about this," Trump said during a 2023 event in North Carolina. "I talk about transgender, everyone goes crazy, who would have thought five years ago you didn't know what the hell it was."
• In 2021, AP reached out to lawmakers in 20 states who had proposed youth sports bans and found that almost none of them could cite any examples of transgender athletes' participation posing problems in their own states.

State of play: McBride privately counseled her Democratic colleagues to cast the fight over bathroom access as a distraction from real issues their constituents are facing, as NOTUS first reported, and said she would follow the rules Johnson laid out "even if I disagree with them."

• "It is a sad day when pointless culture wars, including gatekeeping the toilets of Capitol Hill, are more important for politicians than doing their actual jobs for the taxpayers who hired them," GLAAD President and CEO Sarah Kate Ellis told Axios in a statement.
• Hakeem Jeffries, the top House Democrat, scolded Republicans: "This is your priority?"

Friction point: Some in the trans community have criticized McBride, and Democratic leaders, for ceding the issue to Republicans and not pushing back harder.

• The new rules on Capitol Hill were announced on Transgender Day of Remembrance, which commemorates people who have been killed or attacked because they were trans.

Go deeper: LGBTQ+ Americans bracing for Trump's takeover

In the end zone, on the soccer pitch and on the golf course, athletes are paying tribute to President-elect Trump with the “Trump Dance.”

Why it matters: After Trump’s decisive victory, athletes and other celebs seem more willing to publicly associate themselves with the president-elect — even if the dance is more of a pop culture phenomenon than a political endorsement.

Catch up quick: The moves are inspired by a dance Trump has been doing at his rallies for years — pumping his fists and shaking his hips.

Driving the news: In the NFL, Raiders tight end Brock Bowers, Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley and Lions defensive end Za’Darius Smith, among others, celebrated big plays with the “Trump Dance” recently.

• College football players are doing it too, AP reports.
• Christian Pulisic of the U.S. mens national soccer team imitated the moves to celebrate a goal on Monday.
• And current UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones did it during a fight on Saturday, with Trump in attendance.
• Golfer Charley Hull also did the dance during a Sunday match.

Zoom out: The dance has taken on a life of its own, with some athletes saying it’s not meant to make a statement.

• “It’s not a political dance. It was just for fun,” Pulisic said after his game, noting that he had seen "everyone doing it yesterday in the NFL" and Jones doing it in UFC.
• “I saw it and thought it was cool,” Bowers said.

The bottom line: It’s a new MAGA era, and Trumpism is making its way into pop culture in ways that it didn’t the first time he was in office.

They’re donning MAGA hats in cafes, celebrating on social media and flying Trump flags: Supporters of President-elect Trump in deep blue cities and states are no longer keeping it to themselves.

Why it matters: Trump improved on his 2016 and 2020 margins in almost every state, including in most big, blue cities like New York, Los Angeles and Chicago.

• Many Trump voters in those cities saw his victory as validation, and are acting accordingly.
• Some residents of liberal enclaves tell Axios they've seen more Trump yard signs go up after the election than before it.
• And many supporters of Vice President Harris are grappling with the fact that their neighbors might not have voted the way they did.

Flashback: The “secret” Trump vote has been a phenomenon for the past few election cycles.

• A study from Columbia Business School found that among those who kept their choice a secret leading up to the 2016 election, two out of three went for Trump.
• "I think people recognize that that there is some kind of reputational cost of supporting Trump," says Columbia's Michael Slepian, who co-authored the study.

Zoom in: According to Slepian’s research, people primarily keep their votes secret because they're concerned about their reputation, about conflicts with family and friends, and about feeling like they don’t belong in their neighborhood or city.

• And while many people who supported Trump will continue to keep mum due to those concerns, others are seeing the rightward shift in blue cities and the broader support for Trump and deciding to go public.
• "There's such a stigma still with being a Trump supporter ... I'm not sure it's gonna be like that anymore," says Jonathan Alpert, a Manhattan-based psychotherapist who says patients told him they were keeping their support for the former president quiet before the election.

“All of these undercover Trump people are out,” says Robert Cahaly, a pollster and strategist at the right-leaning Trafalgar Group. “People that would have hidden a week or so ago aren’t hiding anymore.”

• On TikTok, Instagram and beyond, some influencers who’d kept their political preferences hidden are going full MAGA, The Cut reports.
• And social media has been full of photos of Trump paraphernalia on display in the most unlikely neighborhoods.

The other side: Big cities still overwhelmingly backed Harris. And many of the residents in those cities have been surprised to see support for Trump in their communities.

• “I feel gutted ... I feel that my country and large parts of our city have betrayed ourselves and our children and our neighbors," Annie Thoms, a high school teacher in Manhattan told the New York Times.
• Mary Swallow, a 63-year-old Democrat in Philadelphia, told the Wall Street Journal she hadn't realized how Trumpy her neighborhood of Bridgesburg had become: "How sad is that? ... Oh well, what are you going to do? Better luck another time."