• US home sales remained low due to high mortgage rates and home prices in 2024.
• Southeast cities like Charlotte and Knoxville saw high demand despite affordability issues.
• Analysts predict a potential rise in home sales in 2025, driven by lower mortgage rates.

Another tough year in the US housing market was anything but boring for those in popular cities.

Home sales were soft for a third straight year, the National Association of Realtors recently noted. Mortgage rates and home prices are down from peak levels, but affordability remains a major issue and has sidelined millions of would-be buyers, who are instead renting.

But sellers in hot markets still won big as buyers battled for scarce spots in coveted cities.

10 places movers flocked to in 2024

To determine this year's most popular US real-estate markets, Business Insider compiled and analyzed data from six sources about moving patterns, rents, rental market competitiveness, search interest from homebuyers, and home price growth history and projections.

Although there were some mixed signals, there were also some clear conclusions about which regions, states, and cities drew the most interest from buyers and renters.

A brief look at migration data from Atlas Van Lines may yield more questions than answers. The moving firm found that the places with the most inbound movers relative to those leaving were Arkansas; Rhode Island; North Carolina; Washington, DC; and Idaho. Also on the list of states with inbound rates of at least 55% are Maine, Connecticut, Washington, Alaska, Alabama, and New Mexico, which essentially covers all four corners of the US.

But while that moving data gives a solid big-picture overview, it doesn't provide insight into which individual markets were most popular. That was instead determined by other measures of demand, like how much prices for homes and apartments rose, or how tough they were to land.

This process was more of an art than a science, but the 10 cities that best fit those criteria within states with substantial positive inflows of movers were all east of the Mississippi River. Even more notable is that the Southeast region was home to eight of those 10 popular markets, which were spread across just three states: North Carolina, Kentucky, and Tennessee.

North Carolina was tied for second in the nation in mover inbound rate at 63%, due in part to four especially hot markets. Winston-Salem and nearby Greensboro saw their rents rise 6.7% and 5.3% this year, respectively, giving their rental market competitiveness scores a big boost. Meanwhile, two other major cities in the Tar Heel State — Charlotte and Durham — saw rents decline but were among the 20 most searched markets by homebuyers.

Those four North Carolina cities are set for high-single-digit or low-double-digit home price growth next year, per Realtor.com, and the NAR highlighted Charlotte as a top spot in 2025.

Neighboring Tennessee also had one of the nation's highest inbound rates at 62%. Knoxville was one of the more competitive smaller markets despite rent growth of just 1.5%, and it ranked 10th in the nation in homebuyers' searches. It's also on the NAR's list of standout markets next year. Meanwhile, Memphis saw 22.7% rent growth and is in line for 10.5% home price growth.

Kentucky's inbound rate of 56% was more modest. However, it had Lexington with 9.9% rent growth, a lofty rental market competitiveness score, and the eighth spot in buyers' searches, as well as Louisville, which Rent Cafe said was the top trending rental market of 2024.

Jonathan Miller, the cofounder of the real-estate firm Miller Samuel, told Business Insider that the Southeast market is popular because it's relatively warm and has ample housing inventory.

"It's a combination of the weather and housing affordability," Miller said in a recent interview.

The nation's capital represented the bordering Mid-Atlantic with a 63% mover inbound rate and a fifth-place ranking in homebuyers' searches, pushing prices up 10.2%. Washington, DC, was also one of the 30 most competitive rental markets, though supply kept price growth in check.

Rounding out the list was New Haven, Connecticut, which was arguably the hottest market. It was the fourth most competitive rental market this year, and its rent growth was easily the highest in the US in December at 35.7%. It also had 18.3% home price growth in November and is set for another 9.7% next year due to its Yale University ties and proximity to New York City.

What to expect in 2025

The US housing market has slowly thawed after it froze over as mortgage rates spiked. Some real-estate analysts expect sales to heat up in 2025, though others are more skeptical.

Optimists are calling for the biggest jump since the pandemic boom. The National Association of Realtors sees home sales rising 7% to 12% in 2025, including an 11% jump for new units, while eXp Realty's CEO is calling for 10% growth caused by sliding mortgage rates and rising supply.

But Realtor.com's sales forecast is more tempered at 1.5%, as is Miller's call for a 3% increase. The veteran real-estate analyst said mortgage rates will likely stay above 6%, weighing on demand, plus supply is also limited. Even still, he's expecting a 4% to 5% jump in home prices.

"If mortgage rates unexpectedly fall below 6%, we can have a housing boom," Miller said. "It just doesn't appear that that's in the cards, but there's a lot of upside potential in transaction volume, despite higher mortgage rates."

Miller said that against that backdrop, buyers will continue to seek out affordable markets, which are often correlated with abundant inventory. That's why the Sun Belt region was so hot in 2024.

This year's most popular markets will likely be among the winners next year, in Miller's view. He didn't predict the next boom town but said surges into Texas and Florida have run their course. Those states were red-hot in the early 2020s, though each had level moving flows this year.

"It's not that those markets are less attractive," Miller said. "There's less intensity from inbound migration as millions of new residents get situated. The rate of growth is no longer surging."

However, it appears as if the exodus from large states with highly populated cities isn't over, as three of the five states with the most outbound movers were California, Illinois, and New York. Each of those states has relatively high taxes, and Miller has a hunch that some movers might try to preemptively move before the potential expiration of state and local tax deductions slated for the end of 2025.

• Brennan Schlagbaum has zero interest in managing properties but wants exposure to real estate.
• His solution is to invest in real estate syndications, which are completely hands-off.
• This is when a group of investors pool capital to purchase a single investment.

Brennan Schlagbaum recognizes the advantages of real estate — from the tax benefits to portfolio diversification — but he's not willing to buy and manage an investment property.

He says he has his hands full with simply maintaining a primary residence: "I hate real estate with a passion. If something breaks in my house, I call somebody."

To benefit from real estate without having to actually own and operate properties, he invests in real estate syndications.

"I think it's one of the best ways for somebody that hates real estate but understands the tax benefits of real estate to get in because you don't have to do anything," the self-made millionaire and founder of Budgetdog, who built his wealth primarily investing in low-cost index funds, told Business Insider.

How real-estate syndications work

In real-estate syndication deals, a group of investors pools together their capital to purchase a single property managed by the syndicator.

Once the investor contributes capital, their role in the deal becomes completely passive. The real-estate syndicator is responsible for finding the deal, executing the transaction, and, ultimately, delivering returns to the investors.

"You lose control from that aspect. You don't really have control over how that performs," said Schlagbaum, who said he invests in five multi-family syndications. But if you work with a syndicator with a good track record that you trust, "it's essentially an index fund."

He invests with a syndicator that specializes in multi-family properties.

"They go in, upgrade the units, increase rent prices in a really high-demand area that's underpriced, own and operate that building for a couple of years, and then typically sell it after a three- to five-year period, sometimes up to seven," he explained. "And you don't do anything as an investor; you're just an equity partner. So you literally send some capital their way and hope they do their job."

A good option for established investors looking for hands-off strategies

BI has spoken to a variety of established investors who, after building wealth by acquiring rental properties, are turning to syndication deals for a more passive experience.

"You hear that real-estate investing is passive, and that's certainly not been my experience," said self-made millionaire Tess Waresmith, who owns five units across three properties. "I still think it's a wonderful way to invest, but it's not passive like investing in the stock market is."

She invested in her first syndication in 2023 and likes that it opens the door to bigger investment opportunities.

"I check out the deal and make sure it's something that feels good to me, and then when I invest the money, I'm hands-off. I'm not involved in the day-to-day decision-making of the property," she said. "But as an investor, I get to benefit from investing in the larger unit properties."

Carl and Mindy Jensen, a financially independent couple who have started shifting toward passive-investing strategies, including real estate syndication, also appreciate the hands-off nature of these deals. But it's hard to know what your returns will look like, Carl told BI: "The people running these syndications will tell you they're expecting numbers, and it's infrequently accurate."

It's important to remember that the syndicator is "probably using their best, sunny-day scenarios." That said, "every syndication we've had has actually outperformed the original numbers."

To participate in this type of partnership, you typically have to be an accredited investor, meaning you either must have a net worth of over $1 million or an income of over $200,000 (individually) over the past two years. There's also typically a minimum investment requirement, depending on the syndicator.

But there are workarounds, said Schlagbaum, especially if you're part of a real-estate community or network.

Investors who are part of the community he's built, for example, don't necessarily have to be accredited to participate, since "the SEC deems pre-existing relationships allowable," he said. "They just get access to the deal because they know me."

Sometimes, "Getting around those hurdles is just knowing the right people."

After three years of tense reductions, the skies are clearing over Silicon Valley, and startup investors seem broadly optimistic about a resurgence in tech dealmaking.

We asked venture capitalists at 35 firms like Andreessen Horowitz, Insight Partners, IVP, and Sapphire Ventures, to tell us what's hot and what's not in tech next year, how potential regulatory changes could rouse a sleepy exit market, and where artificial intelligence goes from here.

In 2025, venture capitalists expect a loosening of antitrust regulations under the new presidential administration. This could reignite acquisition activity by strategic buyers, which would allow funds to distribute proceeds from those deals to their own investors, or limited partners, and raise new funds to invest in the next generation of startups, said Brian Garrett, managing director at Crosscut Ventures.

In recent years, startups weren't the only ones facing a cash crunch. Established funds raised the lion's share of funding dollars, while many newish and boutique funds struggled to raise. A torrent of dealmaking, combined with Trump's return to the White House and an end to the political uncertainty, could mobilize investors in these funds who had been sitting on the sidelines to whip out their checkbooks, said Ivan Nikkhoo, a managing partner at Navigate Ventures.

"Uncertainty breeds defense, optimism breeds offense," said Matt Murphy, a partner at Menlo Ventures and early Anthropic investor. "We're going into a cycle where acquirers are feeling they need to play offense and startups feel like it's time to invest in leadership. And the IPO market is open for best-in-class assets."

From IPOs to robotaxis, these are the tech trends to watch in 2025, according to venture capitalists.

Infrastructure cools off, apps soar

Jai Das, president and partner at Sapphire Ventures: "A larger number of 'application layer' companies will have a breakout year with several crossing $100 million in revenues. I predict 50 companies will cross $50 million ARR while still growing 60%+, and at least 10 will hit $100 million ARR. A lot of these companies will be prosumer companies, but there will be several business application companies as well."

Ben Lerer, managing partner at Lerer Hippeau: "When you get the cost of compute going down as quickly as it has, and the number of options in terms of foundational models growing as it has, you end up with a really interesting time for the application layer to thrive. If you're a startup, you can go with the flavor of the month — not just a ChatGPT wrapper, or a Claude wrapper, or a Gemini wrapper, or you name it — but some combination of all of them to optimize functionality, results, and the cost of those results."

Lower rates kick the IPO market into gear

Sofia Dolfe, partner at Index Ventures: "2025 is the year we will see the IPO market opening back up. There are already signs that this is on the horizon: we're seeing gradual recovery, rates have started to come down, and there are many later-stage companies with the financial profiles to go public."

Michael Yang, senior managing partner at Omers: "Two kinds of companies will go public as the IPO window opens back up next year. First, the truly great businesses that are really scaled and have forecastable growth and would've gone public earlier if the IPO market was more favorable, and second, companies that entered into structured financings with dirtier terms that need to go public for timing reasons."

Nima Wedlake, managing director at Thomvest Ventures: "The IPO market will remain closed for most tech companies, with a high bar for entry — $300 million-plus ARR, fast growth, and cash-flow breakeven or better."

As crypto prices surge, founders return to the drawing table

Nihal Mehta, general partner at Eniac: "Guidance on what the regulations could be for crypto and AI would encourage founders to build productively within those areas."

Jai Das, president and partner at Sapphire Ventures: "The new administration is crypto-friendly, bringing with it an expected acceleration of crypto-based business models (especially those using stablecoins). I predict we'll have another crypto mania in 2025."

Some venture funds go belly-up

Wesley Chan, cofounder and managing partner at FPV Ventures: "In 2025, I predict a lot of contraction for VCs, except for top funds. We're still in a downturn. Some firms shut down, a lot of firms are not doing new deals, and you will see a lot of junior-mid level employees leave."

The great funding bifurcation continues

Molly Alter, partner at Northzone: "The 'sexiest' deals will continue to raise at sky-high valuations, but for the rest of the pack, companies will need to show very specific metrics to command a strong valuation. There will be a great bifurcation into the 'haves' and the 'have-nots.'"

Don Butler, managing director at Thomvest Ventures: "Startup shutdowns will increase, particularly at the seed stage, as companies run out of cash. This will influence valuations, with investors likely focusing on startups that have shown resilience or achieved meaningful milestones."

Matt Murphy, partner at Menlo Ventures: "Valuations will rise as growth rates and market multiples recover, but many companies still might not grow back into their ZIRP valuations. People are over that and won't let it get in the way of pursuing opportunity. Valuations for GenAI companies will continue to be outliers based on any historical metrics."

Robotaxis cover new terrain

Brian Walsh, head of Wind Ventures: "2025 will be the year that we enter the age of 'robo taxis' with, first, Waymo now well along its adoption S-curve in San Francisco and expanding quickly, and, second, Tesla favorably positioned with quickly maturing best-in-class autonomy technology (no human in the loop) and an existing large fleet to scale it."

Kasper Sage, managing partner at BMW i Ventures: "Autonomous fleet deployments will gain traction in controlled, high-density environments such as for applications like campus environments and logistics for heavy industries."

Trump policy heralds return of megadeals

Aaron Jacobson, partner at NEA: "With the change of administration, I expect the return of mega M&A deals. We are going to see a 'WhatsApp' like $20 billion-plus M&A outcome for a leading AI company."

Michael Yang, senior managing partner at Omers: "Big Tech will be back at the M&A table with a new administration and regulatory regime in place. They've been quieter in recent times but should be chomping at the bit to capitalize on what is still a buyer's market."

Funding rounds become even more fluid

Sasha McKenzie and Van Jones, both deal leads at Wellington Access Ventures at Wellington Management: "The concept of letter rounds in VC is becoming more amorphous. We're seeing $30 million and $100 million seed rounds, raising questions about what seed even means anymore. The model is shifting towards evaluating how quickly founders can run and how disciplined they are with results, rather than hitting historically stated milestones (e.g., $1 million in revenue to raise a Series A). There will be more nuance in how VCs evaluate progress, focusing more on the operator and their ability to balance vision with execution, based on the capital they have."

Multi-agent systems take center stage

Aaron Jacobson, partner at NEA: "Chatbots are overhyped. Agents are under-hyped. Enterprises will move beyond the low-hanging fruit of 'GPT-wrappers' to deploy digital workers that can reason and take action to make a real business impact."

Praveen Akkiraju, managing director at Insight Partners: "If 2024 was the year of LLMs, we believe 2025 will be the year of agentic AI — where highly capable state-of-the-art reasoning LLMs are combined with orchestration frameworks like memory, tool calling, and user-in-the-loop processes to build AI agents that can address progressively complex business workflows."

Seema Amble, partner at Andreessen Horowitz: "In the short term, human workers will be the reviewer in the loop; in the future, as trust is established over time, I expect many data-derived actions will shift toward being entirely a set of narrowly defined task-driven agents."

S. Somasegar, managing director at Madrona: "The world where we each have a digital assistant that works with a collection of AI agents is probably five to ten years out. But having AI agents that can do specific tasks really, really well is happening sooner and I think we will see a ton of progress on this in 2025."

Tender offers grow for a selective group of companies

Ravi Viswanathan, founder and managing partner at NewView Capital: "The venture secondaries market will continue to be an important source of liquidity — a trend we think is here to stay due to structural dynamics of the venture asset class."

Simon Wu, partner at Cathay Innovation: "The size of tender offers has grown from millions to billions as the desire to own top-performing names by mutual funds and VCs increases, thus allowing some of the best names to stay private longer. Tenders are likely to get bigger to a selective group of companies in tandem with a more active IPO market next year."

Industry-specific software takes over

Molly Alter, partner at Northzone: "Vertical SaaS will become more highly valued than ever, due to the increasing difficulty of differentiating a product in horizontal categories."

Cathy Gao, partner at Sapphire Ventures: "Vertical software will evolve rapidly as AI moves to the agentic phase, enabling end-to-end automation of complex, industry-specific workflows that were once beyond the reach of software. By pairing deep domain expertise with intelligent automation, vertical AI will unlock new use cases, deliver outsized ROI, and become table stakes for staying competitive."

Fintech roars back

Alexa von Tobel, managing partner at Inspired Capital: "Given the new political climate, we, of course, expect to see less regulation across the board. I think we'll see acceleration in a few core categories, including fintech."

Marlon Nichols, managing partner at MaC Venture Capital: "Fintech is an area I'm excited to invest in, particularly fintech startups leveraging AI to create transformative personal finance tools."

Sydney Thomas, general partner at Symphonic Capital: "We are watching the regulatory environment towards fintech ease which has enabled massive speculation on what asset class will win. … This also means, many startups will be required to regulate themselves, which isn't always an easy thing to do."

Robots join society

Claire Yun, investor at Piva Capital: "Generative AI will continue to accelerate and supercharge robotics; simultaneously, we will see a choke point in human labor as an aging domestic workforce and protectionist policies create a sharp supply and demand imbalance. The result will be a colorful Cambrian explosion of robots as they step in to fill this gap."

Bob Ma, partner at Wind Ventures: "Urban areas will have fleets of robots on sidewalks, while drones will manage suburban and rural deliveries. Enhanced speed, cost-efficiency, and sustainability will redefine retail and e-commerce, with regulations supporting wider adoption and innovation."

Yuri Lee, partner at IVP: "As AI advances enable robots to move from structured, repetitive tasks to more complex and dynamic real-world applications, we'll see rapid progress in robotic perception, manipulation, and decision-making capabilities."

Small language models rise in popularity

Tasneem Dohadwala, partner at Excelestar Ventures: "Small language domain-specific models are starting to show more value. Instead of using vast swaths of the internet to train large models, these smaller models can be trained on specific datasets, such as medical journals, newspapers, or email collections. As a result, they are highly tailored and more accurate in reflecting a user's particular constraints and voice.

Michael Yang, senior managing partner at Omers: "If 2024 was the year of the LLMs, 2025 will be the year of small language models (SLMs) and proprietary data sets spawning the next generation of enterprise SaaS applications. Companies have realized that data in their midst can be harnessed in new and better ways than the 'structured workflow apps' of old and by leveraging targeted SLMs, they can do work differently, more efficiently."

Founders flock to private equity

Brad Bernstein, managing partner at FTB Capital: "Despite the IPO market showing better performance in Q3'24 with proceeds already surpassing 2023 totals, structural issues like regulatory burdens and governance challenges still pose obstacles for small and mid-cap companies. Private equity markets are stepping in to fill the gap, with growth equity deals comprising a larger share of activity and providing opportunities for startups in high-growth sectors like insurtech and healthcare tech."

Jai Das, president and partner at Sapphire Partners: "With the new administration, I predict we will see an uptick in exits, and much more tech M&A activity. We'll also see PE firms buying up a lot of companies once boards and management teams realize these businesses won't be able to grow at 30% at scale and ultimately, IPO."

Open-source foundation models come for OpenAI and xAI's lunch

Aaron Jacobson, partner at NEA: "Open-source foundation models will close the gap with the leading proprietary models. On top of this we will see a significant shift away from pre-training models from scratch to fine tuning OSS models and distilling them to smaller models for faster performance."

Mo Jomaa, partner at CapitalG: "I predict that in 2025 we will continue to see open source technologies consume the infrastructure layer in software. We have seen this trend play out in several categories already, including data and analytics (which led to our investment in Databricks) and observability (which drove our investment in Grafana). Enterprises will continue to adopt open source because it helps them save money, avoid vendor lock-in, and shape the product roadmaps of the technologies that they procure."

Record deals and dollars flow to cyber and national security

Andrew Schoen, partner at NEA: "We will see a surge of investment into technologies critical to restarting the US industrial base and enhancing national security. A record number of deals and dollars will go into AI, automation, cybersecurity, and frontier technology serving manufacturing, supply chain, and defense markets."

Jake Seid, general partner at Ballistic Ventures: "Over the next 18 months, we're going to see a lot more cybersecurity exits. While this may include an uptick in M&A activity, I expect we'll see cybersecurity companies go public in 2025 and in the first half of 2026 given how large the market for cyber products has become."

Trump's tech advisors bend his ear

Samir Kumar, general partner at Touring Capital: "We should expect a lot less regulatory headwinds in 2025 for AI given David Sacks will be the AI and crypto czar for the new administration. This is likely to even result in the repeal of President Biden's executive order on AI."

Francesco Ricciuti, associate at Runa Capital: "In the US, Trump is bringing prominent people from the startup and VC world in the government, and I wouldn't be surprised if the regulatory landscape will evolve towards entrepreneurship and technology."

• OpenAI's o1 model was hailed as a breakthrough in September.
• By November, a Chinese AI lab had released a similar model called DeepSeek.
• On Thursday, Google came out with a challenger called Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking.

In September, OpenAI unveiled a radically new type of AI model called o1. In a matter of months, rivals introduced similar offerings.

On Thursday, Google released Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking, which uses reasoning techniques that look a lot like o1.

Even before that, in November, a Chinese company announced DeepSeek, an AI model that breaks challenging questions down into more manageable tasks like OpenAI's o1 does.

This is the latest example of a crowded AI frontier where pricey innovations are swiftly matched, making it harder to stand out.

"It's amazing how quickly AI model improvements get commoditized," Rahul Sonwalkar, CEO of the startup Julius AI, said. "Companies spend massive amounts building these new models, and within a few months they become a commodity."

The proliferation of multiple AI models with similar capabilities could make it difficult to justify charging high prices to use these tools. The price of accessing AI models has indeed plunged in the past year or so.

That, in turn, could raise questions about whether it's worth spending hundreds of millions of dollars, or even billions, to build the next top AI model.

September is a lifetime ago in the AI industry

When OpenAI previewed its o1 model in September, the product was hailed as a breakthrough. It uses a new approach called inference-time compute to answer more challenging questions.

It does this by slicing queries into more digestible tasks and turning each of these stages into a new prompt that the model tackles. Each step requires running a new request, which is known as the inference stage in AI.

This produces a chain of thought or chain of reasoning in which each part of the problem is answered, and the model doesn't move on to the next stage until it ultimately comes up with a full response.

The model can even backtrack and check its prior steps and correct errors, or try solutions and fail before trying something else. This is akin to how humans spend longer working through complex tasks.

DeepSeek rises

In a mere two months, o1 had a rival. On November 20, a Chinese AI company released DeepSeek.

"They were probably the first ones to reproduce o1," said Charlie Snell, an AI researcher at UC Berkeley who coauthored a Google DeepMind paper this year on inference-time compute.

He's tried DeepSeek's AI model and says it performs well on complex math problems that must be solved by thinking for longer and in stages. 

He noted that in DeepSeek's DeepThink mode, the model shows users every step of its thought process. With o1, these intermediate steps are hidden from users. 

"I've asked people at OpenAI what they think of it," Snell told BI. "They say it looks like the same thing, but they don't how DeepSeek did this so fast."

OpenAI didn't respond to a request for comment. On Friday, the startup previewed an o1 successor, called o3. Francois Chollet, a respected AI expert, called the update a "significant breakthrough."

Andrej Karpathy, an OpenAI cofounder, praised Google's new "Thinking" model for the same reasoning feature.

"The prominent and pleasant surprise here is that unlike o1 the reasoning traces of the model are shown," he wrote on X. "As a user I personally really like this because the reasoning itself is interesting to see and read — the models actively think through different possibilities, ideas, debate themselves, etc., it's part of the value add."

A DeepSeek demo

Snell shared a multistep math problem with Business Insider, which we used to test DeepSeek for ourselves: 

"Find a sequence of +, -, /, * which can be applied to the numbers 7, 3, 11, 5 to get to 24, where each of the given numbers is used exactly once."

BI put that prompt in DeepSeek's chat window on its website. The model responded initially by laying out the challenge ahead.

"Alright, so I've got this problem here: I need to use the numbers 7, 3, 11, and 5, and combine them with the operations of addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division, using each number exactly once, to get to 24," it replied. "At first glance, this seems a bit tricky, but I think with some systematic thinking, I can figure it out."

It then proceeded through multiple steps over roughly 16 pages of discussion that included mathematical calculations and equations. The model sometimes got it wrong, but it spotted this and didn't give up. Instead, it swiftly moved on to another possible solution. 

"Almost got close there with 33 / 7 * 5 ≈ 23.57, but not quite 24. Maybe I need to try a different approach," it wrote at one point. 

After a few minutes, it found the correct solution. 

"You can see it try different ideas and backtrack," Snell said in an interview on Wednesday. He highlighted this part of DeepSeek's chain of thought as particularly noteworthy:

"This is getting really time-consuming. Maybe I need to consider a different strategy," the AI model wrote. "Instead of combining two numbers at a time, perhaps I should look for a way to group them differently or use operations in a nested manner."

Then Google appears

Snell said other companies are likely working on AI models that use the same inference-time compute approach as OpenAI.

"DeepSeek does this already, so I assume others are working on this," he added on Wednesday.

The following day, Google released Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking. Like DeepSeek, this new model shows users each step of its thought process while tackling problems. 

Jeff Dean, a Google AI veteran, shared a demo on X that showed this new model solving a physics problem and explained its reasoning steps. 

"This model is trained to use thoughts to strengthen its reasoning," Dean wrote. "We see promising results when we increase inference time computation!"

• Real estate investor Ludomir Wanot shares strategies anyone can use to find deals.
• He doesn't expect rates to drop in 2025 and encourages investors to lean into creative financing.
• Strategies such as subject-to financing can help investors avoid excessive borrowing costs.

Real-estate investor Ludomir Wanot wants other investors to know that there are deals to be found — you just have to know where to look.

"I love rentals. I love to see the physical, tangible assets," the Seattle-based millennial, who built his wealth wholesaling and now runs an AI company that helps lenders communicate with their clients, told Business Insider. "The proven, consistent strategy that's worked for me over the last seven years is sticking with the rental strategy of buying at a 30% discount to appraised value, making sure it cash flows at least $500 a month, and the property has to be in an opportunity zone — and I find these properties all the time."

He's acquired five units in Oregon in the last five months, which BI verified by looking at settlement statements.

"They're definitely out there," he said. "But sometimes they're not in Washington. Sometimes you have to look outside the state."

Wanot shared strategies that any investor can use to find deals, what types of properties he's looking for and what he's avoiding, and the simplest way for anyone to break into real estate investing in 2025.

Source off-market deals through wholesalers

One strategy for finding deals is to look for off-market properties — meaning, properties for sale that are not listed on the multiple listing service. While more difficult to find, they're typically easier to negotiate thanks to less competition.

There are various ways to find off-market properties, from real-estate auction websites to Craigslist to door-knocking. There's also wholesaling, which is when the person acting as the wholesaler finds and buys a discounted property and then sells the contract to another buyer.

Having done wholesaling for years, Wanot is aware that "there are wholesalers that consistently find discounted properties, and you can find those people on Facebook, through investment communities, they're all over."

He encourages investors to meet with wholesalers in their area and provide them with specific property criteria. If you're new to investing and haven't yet built a network, start by attending real-estate meet-ups or joining online real-estate communities.

As Wanot has learned, "Surround yourself with people who know more than you, ask questions, and build relationships with all different kinds of people you meet because you never know when you can work with them down the road."

Maximize cash flow with creative financing

Wanot doesn't expect rates to drop significantly in 2025. To get a property to generate positive cash flow in a higher-rate environment, he recommends leaning into creative financing.

"With interest rates remaining high, traditional financing methods may not yield the best returns," he said, but strategies such as seller financing, subject-to agreements, and private lending could help investors lock in better terms and avoid excessive borrowing costs.

Seller financing is when the buyer buys directly from the seller. The seller acts as the lender and provides a loan with agreed-upon terms about things like the interest rate and schedule of payments.

With subject-to financing, the buyer takes over the existing financing. The buyer doesn't actually assume the mortgage — it remains in the seller's name with the same terms — but will make mortgage payments on behalf of the seller.

Private money lending is another way to avoid a bank or traditional mortgage lender, and can be a "great way to avoid high interest rates and fees," said Wanot, adding: "I've had a lot of luck sourcing private money lenders through real estate Facebook groups."

Look for single-family homes that need work

"If you're a new investor, I'd definitely go after the distressed, small single-family homes," said Wanot.

Another tip is to look for property where the seller has "at least 50% equity in the home and has owned it for a long time," he said, as they might be more motivated to negotiate, especially if they're managing it from out-of-state. "I'm looking at owners who are over the age of 50 because the older owners tend to want to get out of the real estate space. It is so draining and requires a lot of physical and mental work."

Wanot owns multi-family properties but has found that they're more difficult to make the numbers work, at least in his current market.

"If you're a sophisticated investor, yes, small or large multi-families are good if you actually have run your numbers 1,000 times and you know exactly what you're looking for," he said. "There have been probably five properties that I was going to buy in the last year that I didn't pull the trigger on because the profit and loss statements that were given to me were significantly different from the actual bank statements."

A common mistake he's seen investors make, especially when it comes to these big multi-families, is just paying attention to the P&Ls, "which are made by the property managers or the owners of the property and show one story," he said. "They're not actually going through the bank statements and seeing what actual revenue is coming in and what expenses are going out."

He also advises avoiding the BRRRR — buy, rehab, rent, refinance, and repeat — method in a high-rate environment: "It hasn't really been working the last couple of years because the interest rates are so high right now, and so smart investors are moving away from that."

The easiest way to get started: Rent a portion of your home

For most new investors, the simplest and most risk-averse way to get started is "creating rentable units in their single-family home space," said Wanot, referring to a strategy known as "house hacking."

This requires owning a primary residence and converting a garage, basement, or even a bedroom into a rentable space. If you have a bigger budget and meet zoning requirements in your area, another option may be to build an ADU.

At a minimum, renting out a portion of your home will reduce your mortgage — and could even fully cover it. Lowering your monthly housing payment could then help you save up to buy a proper investment property.

Wanot's top advice heading into the new year, however, is to actually implement what you read about and learn. Taking action could be as small as joining a real estate community and networking.

"People are buying programs, they're going to the events, they're watching people come up onstage and talk about how wealthy they got through a particular strategy. But very few people actually implement anything they're being taught," he said.

"The day we actually stop listening to and reading all these stories, podcasts, and YouTube videos and actually apply ourselves is the day we're finally going to start seeing progress in our lives."

• Blackstone's outlandish holiday videos have become must-see TV for Wall Street and beyond.
• Love them or hate them, they are smart marketing, and other companies are taking notice.
• Business Insider went behind the scenes to see how they're made and who's in charge.

On a Thursday in December, a small crowd stood outside the office of Blackstone's heir apparent, Jon Gray. A woman was holding a martini glass and asked the nearby film crew how she should toss its contents at her colleague.

Laurie Carlson, Gray's executive assistant, wanted to know how high she should throw the liquid and worried aloud about the office equipment, including a printer.

A member of the crew told Carlson to aim for the face — for comedic effect. A minute later, Joe Lohrer, the head of US retail sales for Blackstone Private Wealth Solutions, was dripping wet, and the head of Blackstone's video team, Jay Gillespie, called for another take.

"This is the first stunt we've ever done in a holiday video," Gillespie, who's spent his career in the film industry as a director, producer, editor, and cinematographer, told a reporter on set.

Since 2018, Blackstone has been releasing increasingly zany videos in time for the holiday season. Think of them as the house with the over-the-top Christmas lights: Some people love it, some hate it, but everyone is talking about it. It's become must-see-TV for Wall Street, and this year's video was among the zaniest. It included a series of mock reality-TV shows and ended with a country-western song-and-dance routine about leveraged loans and data centers.

Blackstone's viral holiday video is the work of Gillespie's team, which has been quietly helping to transform the public face of the private-equity giant since he joined the firm full time in 2019. The video operation now includes about 20 full-time staffers and produces an enormous amount of content, including 2,200 videos this year alone. It is the brainchild of Christine Anderson, Blackstone's global head of corporate affairs, who also oversees the team as the head of marketing.

While the holiday video is the most outlandish, much of what Gillespie and his team produce for Blackstone differs from other financial firms. Rather than focusing on how smart its employees are, the videos seek to humanize them, including by dressing them up in funny outfits and letting them sing and dance. Watching its videos, one can learn that Joe Zidle, the chief investment strategist for the private wealth group, is a Deadhead, and Kathleen McCarthy, the cohead of real estate, rocked out to indie band The Beths at the Coachella music festival in April.

It's arguably smart marketing in an era when being powerful and secretive can backfire, leading to questions and even conspiracy theories, especially for a firm as large as Blackstone, which manages over $1 trillion, making it the largest alternative asset manager in the world. On the "Today" show recently, Dan Roth, LinkedIn's editor in chief, said companies around the world are taking notice — even if some of the videos can attract haters on social media.

"They are watching to see what he's doing, and they're copying it," Roth said of a recent Blackstone video in which Gray discusses the company's earnings as colorful emojis (a handshake, a bicep, a gold medal) pop up on the screen. "We are seeing companies in Australia, companies in Europe, doing exactly the same thing," Roth said. "It's wild."

Origin story

Blackstone's holiday video tradition started in 2018 as a replacement for the New York holiday party, which was canceled because the investment firm, with more than 2,500 employees at the time, had grown too large.

Gray, together with Anderson, decided to mark the holidays instead with a video that parodied their workplace in the style of NBC's sitcom "The Office." Gray, who had just been tapped as president and COO, would play the role of the loveable but incompetent boss Michael Scott, played in the show by Steve Carell.

The video was initially intended for clients and employees, not the general public. Even as the videos have gained a wider audience, however, the company has continued in the tradition of using them to poke fun at the firm's inner-office dynamics.

One of the biggest jokes over the years was the firm's casting of Gray as the guy who drives his colleagues crazy with his special meetings and big ideas, several people who work with him said. Even the way he yells from his office for Carlson, his assistant, to jump on his latest pet project has a ring of truth to it, colleagues told BI.

"People tell me that I have an excess of enthusiasm, and many people I work with roll their eyes at it," Gray acknowledged to BI.

Other inside jokes included CEO and cofounder Steve Schwarzman's relentless hawking of his book, "What It Takes," and the head of tactical operations David Blitzer's obsession with teams he owns, including the NHL's New Jersey Devils. In 2019, the video featured Bennett Goodman, the cofounder of GSO, wearing a Hawaiian shirt in the office while sipping on a tropical cocktail — counting down the days till his retirement.

Over the years, the audience for the video has grown. In 2023, it attracted 8 million views across platforms, up from just 60,000 views in 2018, a spokesman told BI. The production has also grown more ambitious, with 200 of the firm's 4,900 employees starring in it this year compared with 20 the first year.

The video, which takes months to produce, is also popular inside Blackstone — so much so that it has raised Gillespie's profile within the halls of 345 Park Avenue. Indeed, one sign of his newfound status was his appearance in this year's video — as a reality TV show producer.

"People come up to me throughout the year, and they're like, 'My daughter is helping me rehearse so I might get a line next year,'" Gillespie told Business Insider. "People are really into lobbying to be in it."

Blackstone TV

Gillespie, 38, has been working on and off with Blackstone since 2012 but was only hired full-time after working on the 2018 holiday video. After graduating from Bard, a small liberal arts college overlooking the Hudson River, in 2008, he went straight to work in reality television, documentaries, and some corporate work. At Blackstone, he oversees both full-time production employees and outside contractors.

His team films, edits, and produces from Blackstone's headquarters at 345 Park Avenue. The company releases the content on its website and via email lists, as well as social media sites like LinkedIn, YouTube, Instagram, and X.

Some of what they produce is traditional: an executive sitting in an office opining on the state of the economy or a growing business opportunity. Gillespie appears to have a lot of freedom, however, to get creative.

More recently, he has taken to interviewing the firm's executives using his iPhone in a series of walk-and-talk interviews the firm has dubbed "Between Two Meetings." In one recent episode, Gillespie catches the firm's head of private equity, Joe Baratta, in the hallway and asks about the company's portfolio of owned and operated companies.

As Baratta starts to answer, a black bar with the word "REDACTED" appears over his mouth, and a closed caption appears on the bottom: "NOT APPROVED BY BLACKSTONE LEGAL AND COMPLIANCE." The audio of Baratta speaking is replaced with some loungey bossa nova as he walks through the halls to the elevator.

The audience (hopefully) walks away from that video chuckling at corporate America, but also with a sense of what it is like to work at Blackstone. Before the censors cut him off, Baratta was explaining that he was coming out of the firm's "weekly private-equity Monday morning meeting," which includes the entire team from around the globe. Schwarzman had been at the meeting, Baratta says, telling them about his recent trip to Asia.

In another series, Gillespie's video team interviews a series of managing directors. It's shot with upbeat music and spiffy editing like something you might see on the Food Network's "Diners, Drive-Ins, and Dives." The series seems geared toward highlighting Blackstone as a place to work, with questions like," What qualities do you look for in junior employees?," and "How do you overcome a career setback?"

Gray acknowledged that the videos can help with recruiting.

"I was interviewing someone yesterday who said they wanted to work here because of the holiday video," Gray told BI while filming a scene for the holiday video. "'You guys know how to make fun of yourself.'"

Showing that you can laugh at yourself is an important "humanizing" touch, Gray said, adding, "It shows you're a human-scale place."

"Jon Gray's baby"

Blackstone declined to comment on the cost of its holiday video or its internal video team, but Anderson said the company is saving money with its approach instead of relying on outside contractors.

"We started realizing that by having an in-house team, you could produce this stuff so much more efficiently and cheaply, and then you could just use this stuff for more moments," she said.

A BI reporter watched the filming of a few scenes adding up to 45 seconds in the final video. It took more than an hour to film these scenes, with a coterie of video and marketing professionals on set.

A video professional who has worked with both Blackstone and other financial institutions confirmed much of what Blackstone's executives said about their video-production process.

This person, who asked to remain anonymous to protect career opportunities, said Blackstone differs from other financial firms in its decision to forgo a costly production studio in favor of a team that shoots from wherever they can within the office. The end product takes viewers inside the firm's hallways and executives' offices, giving the videos a documentary feel.

The video professional said too many financial firms are "trying to make one room with four walls look interesting." They also said few financial firms have realized the benefits of investing in full-time video teams.

This person referred to Blackstone's holiday video as "Jon Gray's baby" and said Gray appears to have a great working relationship with Gillespie.

"They met and had a meeting of minds and just got each other," said this person, adding, "They brainstorm very well."

Gillespie credited Gray and Anderson with having the vision to invest in video.

"It feels like if you're not fluent in video these days, you're missing something," he said. "I think Jon and Christine caught that really early."

Gray is usually the first person to come up with the idea for the holiday video, Gillespie said. Sometime in the early summer, Gray will reach out to Gillespie and Anderson with some themes. Then, Gillespie, Gray, and Anderson work together on the script before shooting starts later in the fall.

It's a far cry from the firm's first holiday party in 1985, which included just nine people, Schwarzman told BI. When asked about the new approach, the firm's billionaire founder took a philosophical view.

"This is like your home and this is where you spend more time than you do at your home," he said earlier this month while decked out in a 10-gallon hat between video shoots. "So you have to have a range of experiences from intense work stuff to more casual stuff to the theater of the absurd. So here we are, the theater."

• Gwyneth Paltrow's lifestyle brand Goop has undergone two rounds of layoffs in recent months.
• The company has said it's pivoting to focus on beauty, fashion, and food.
• The changes highlight Goop's challenges to build a sustainable business beyond its famous founder.

Gwyneth Paltrow took a measured tone earlier this year when she discussed Goop, her newsletter turned e-commerce company, onstage at a Forbes event. She didn't brag about the nine figures the brand had raised or its latest product release. Instead, she said she was proud Goop was still in business.

"Some years we're down, then we're back up," she said. "I'm proud that we're still alive and kicking."

That might seem surprising for a company that was valued at $433 million in 2020 and was a trailblazer for what a celebrity brand could be. But it's reflective of a company that — despite its name recognition and pop-culture footprint — has undergone several painful pivots in recent years.

In September, Goop laid off nearly 20% of its staff, including its chief technology officer and VP of content. A few weeks later, it laid off about 6% of the remaining employees.

Goop's recent cuts come as the company shifts focus to its beauty, fashion, and food businesses. It's the latest in a series of strategy changes over the last several years.

Changes in focus are normal for a startup. Still, after 16 years of existence, the company isn't profitable and continues to struggle to build a firm foundation apart from Paltrow.

The company's once-buzzy supplement regimens generated $100,000 in sales on the day they launched in 2017. Now, only one of the four initial regimens is still offered online, and for a discount. A Goop spokesperson told Business Insider that any new supplements it launched would be part of its beauty business.

Julia Hunter, a Goop board member and the former CEO of Jenni Kayne, addressed some of the company's struggles in an interview with Puck, published after BI sent Goop a series of questions for this story.

"The company is doing very well from a revenue perspective, but
operating expenses have continued to grow," Hunter said. "I know that it's unpopular to let people go, but they hired a lot of people that they probably shouldn't have."

On the content side, Goop has recently cut many editorial positions, including the VP of content, head beauty editor, and several other editors. A review of Goop's website shows few new articles, and its book imprint hasn't published a new release in over a year. The magazine ran two issues before folding, and while there were reports that Goop's Netflix series, "The Goop Lab," was renewed, it hasn't materialized.

Paltrow's importance to the brand is evident in product launches, two former Goop employees told BI. They spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation; their identities are known to BI.

When she's part of a launch — what is called in Goop parlance an "A launch" — the performance of the advertising on social media "quadruples," one of the former employees said. Performance often drops off once she's no longer involved, this person added.

Last month, a video featuring Paltrow that promoted Goop's newest release, a retinol serum, drew 1,100 likes on Instagram. The next day, a second post about the serum — which didn't include Paltrow — got fewer than 275 likes.

"Brands need to find viable business models, rather than simply a celebrity face," Simeon Siegel, an analyst at BMO Capital, said of A-list entrepreneurs.

The celebrity brands that have grown to be the largest — like Kim Kardashian's Skims, Rihanna's Fenty, and Selena Gomez's Rare Beauty — have moved beyond their founder's image. Skims, which is valued at $4 billion, has made using models from popular culture a core part of its marketing strategy, for instance.

From newsletter to e-commerce shop: over a decade of pivoting

Goop's founding story has become lore to a certain type of aspirant. In 2008, Paltrow was sitting in the kitchen of the London house she shared with her then-husband, Chris Martin, when she decided to pen a newsletter for "family, friends, and friends of friends." The issue featured a recipe for banana muffins and photos shot on Paltrow's Blackberry.

"It was one of the first of its kind to leverage a curated lifestyle of a celebrity," Stacy Jones, the CEO of branding agency Hollywood Branded, told BI. "It is aligned to her own personal brand in a very unique way that hadn't been done to that extent before."

Before long, Paltrow was earning small checks from advertisers and began dreaming of a media empire.

Paltrow hired media veterans from Meredith and Condé Nast to run the publication. There was a lifestyle website with travel guides and interviews on alternative medicine. In 2015, Paltrow launched a publishing imprint, Goop Press, and in 2017, a magazine in partnership with Condé Nast. Conferences promised to be the next big thing for the brand when the In Goop Health Summit series kicked off in 2017, offering (mainly) women the promise of looking and feeling like Paltrow for the four-figure ticket price. In 2020, as streaming entered its golden age, she scored a deal with Netflix.

But Goop suffered in recent years amid a broader digital media downturn.

"Advertising business as a big part of revenue started to decline, and that was probably the biggest shift to revenue of the last several years," Hunter told Puck, adding that going forward, editorial would be "integrated with social media."

Paltrow still posts regular episodes of the Goop podcast, and after a few years off due to the pandemic, the In Goop Health Summit returned last year.

That said, Goop's media projects appear to have been largely shut down, as many of the staffers behind them were affected by the recent cuts.

As Goop's media initiatives fell short, its e-commerce ambitions — or what the company dubbed "contextual commerce" — took center stage.

The core of its e-commerce business has ebbed and flowed over the years. First, it pushed skincare, then fashion, then wellness.

Now, it's back to beauty and fashion.

"It's a lot of testing" of different verticals, the second former employee said.

In the latest restructuring, the hope of a revitalization

In May, Goop brought in outside consultants, led by Hunter, to help streamline the organization and reduce payroll.

Then, in September, Goop announced its latest pivot, saying it would double down on fashion, beauty, and food. These aren't new initiatives for Goop, but the company has touted their recent growth.

G. Label, the company's in-house clothing line, launched in 2016. The company told BI that the brand's sales are up 45% this year compared to the same period last year, but declined to share its revenue numbers.

The two former employees said they felt G. Label had historically underperformed partly because it was initially designed to fit Paltrow, who, at a slender 5-foot-nine-inches tall, has a much different figure than the average American woman.

"We were just putting together whatever Gwyneth felt like wearing," the first former employee said. They added that the company revised the line in the last year using a new, standard-fit model, which they said had helped its sales.

The Goop spokesperson said a new designer had been hired for G. Label in the last year, who revamped the line.

Goop's first foray into beauty was also in 2016.

A few of the products have repeat customers — the neck peptide serum is a top seller — but there isn't a breakthrough hero product.

Some recent efforts to expand the beauty offerings haven't taken off. Last year, the company launched Good Clean Goop, a moderately priced line, in Target and Amazon. Since then, the company has discounted a number of the brand's products, including the Daily Juice Cleanser and Aging Serum. Puck reported in June that Good Clean Goop was in the bottom 15% of beauty brands at Target. The brand has not posted on social media in more than a month. The two former employees said Goop's contract with Target ends at the beginning of next year.

Then there's Goop Kitchen, the "food" piece, which is not part of the core company. The Goop spokesperson said Goop Kitchen is set up as a joint venture and called it a "separate commercial entity." They declined to share what ownership stake Goop has, if any.

Goop has publicly touted growth statistics — like a 25% sales increase for Goop Beauty and a 45% increase for G. Label. The former employees said these figures were driven in part by an influx of paid ad spend.

The Goop spokesperson declined to comment on whether the company is profitable. Hunter told Puck it wasn't.

Whether Goop's latest efforts to boost revenue and cut back on staff are enough to turn the company around remains to be seen. Paltrow, for her part, has hinted that she wants Goop to thrive without her.

"I don't think I can have this job forever," she told The New York Times last year. "I think it would be nice to return my investors' money, and I really want to do that. That's important to me."

• Google's CEO said it had cut managers, directors, and VPs by 10% as part of its efficiency drive.
• The company has been boosting efficiency by reducing layers and reorganizing teams.
• Google has been facing down threats from OpenAI and other AI rivals.

Google had cut the number of top management roles by 10% in its push for efficiency, CEO Sundar Pichai told employees in an all-hands meeting on Wednesday.

Pichai said that Google had made changes over the past couple of years to simplify the company and be more efficient, according to two people who heard the remarks, who asked to remain anonymous because they're not authorized to speak to the press.

Pichai said this had included a 10% reduction in managers, directors, and vice presidents, one source said.

A Google spokesperson said that some of the roles in that 10% figure were transitioned to individual contributor roles and that some were role eliminations.

The company has been on an efficiency drive for more than two years. In September 2022, Pichai said he wanted Google to be 20% more efficient, and the following January, the company had a historic round of layoffs that saw 12,000 roles eliminated.

The efficiency push has coincided with AI rivals such as OpenAI unleashing new products that threaten Google's search business.

Google has responded by injecting generative AI features into its core businesses and launching a flurry of new AI features, such as a new AI video generator beating OpenAI's in early testing and a new set of Gemini models, including a "reasoning" model that shows its thought process.

In Wednesday's all-hands meeting, Pichai also clarified the meaning of the word "Googleyness," telling staff that it needed updating for a modern Google.

Are you a current or former Google employee with something to share? You can reach the reporter Hugh Langley via the encrypted messaging app Signal (+1-628-228-1836) or email ([email protected]).

• In an all-hands, Google CEO Sundar Pichai said the word 'Googleyness' had become too broad.
• Pichai clarified what the word means for the company.
• Now it's about being "Mission First" and being "Bold and Responsible."

"Googleyness" has long been a vague word for the search giant. Once used to determine if a candidate is a good fit for hiring, it has evolved in definition over the years.

Google CEO Sundar Pichai just attempted to clarify what the word means for Googlers now.

In a company all-hands meeting on Wednesday, Pichai told staff the definition of "Googleyness" had become too broad and that he felt obliged to clarify it, according to two employees who heard the remarks, who asked to remain anonymous because they're not authorized to speak to the press.

Pichai defined "Googleyness" as the following, per one of those sources:

"Mission First"

"Make Helpful Things"

"Be Bold & Responsible"

"Stay Scrappy"

"Hustle & Have Fun"

"Team Google"

A Google spokesperson declined to comment.

The term "Googleyness" has always been amorphous. In his 2015 book Work Rules, Google's former head of people operations, Laszlo Block, listed certain attributes that he considered "Googleyness," such as "intellectual humility," "enjoying fun," and "comfort with ambiguity."

The company previously changed its hiring guidelines to "avoid confusing Googleyness with culture fit," The Information reported in 2019. The change came after the company had been criticized for its lack of diversity in its workplace.

Are you a current or former Google employee with something to share? You can reach the reporter Hugh Langley via the encrypted messaging app Signal (+1-628-228-1836) or email ([email protected]).

• Suchir Balaji helped OpenAI collect data from the internet for AI model training, the NYT reported.
• He was found dead in an apartment in San Francisco in late November, according to police.
• About a month before, Balaji published an essay criticizing how AI models use data.

The recent death of former OpenAI researcher Suchir Balaji has brought an under-discussed AI debate back into the limelight.

AI models are trained on information from the internet. These tools answer user questions directly, so fewer people visit the websites that created and verified the original data. This drains resources from content creators, which could lead to a less accurate and rich internet.

Elon Musk calls this "Death by LLM." Stack Overflow, a coding Q&A website, has already been damaged by this phenomenon. And Balaji was concerned about this.

Balaji was found dead in late November. The San Francisco Police Department said it found "no evidence of foul play" during the initial investigation. The city's chief medical examiner determined the death to be suicide.

Balaji's concerns

About a month before Balaji died, he published an essay on his personal website that addressed how AI models are created and how this may be bad for the internet. 

He cited research that studied the impact of AI models using online data for free to answer questions directly while sucking traffic away from the original sources.

The study analyzed Stack Overflow and found that traffic to this site declined by about 12% after the release of ChatGPT. Instead of going to Stack Overflow to ask coding questions and do research, some developers were just asking ChatGPT for the answers. 

Other findings from the research Balaji cited: 

• There was a decline in the number of questions posted on Stack Overflow after the release of ChatGPT.
• The average account age of the question-askers rose after ChatGPT came out, suggesting fewer people signed up to Stack Overflow or that more users left the online community.

This suggests that AI models could undermine some of the incentives that created the information-rich internet as we know it today.

If people can get their answers directly from AI models, there's no need to go to the original sources of the information. If people don't visit websites as much, advertising and subscription revenue may fall, and there would be less money to fund the creation and verification of high-quality online data.

MKBHD wants to opt out

It's even more galling to imagine that AI models might be doing this based partly on your own work. 

Tech reviewer Marques Brownlee experienced this recently when he reviewed OpenAI's Sora video model and found that it created a clip with a plant that looked a lot like a plant from his own videos posted on YouTube. 

"Are my videos in that source material? Is this exact plant part of the source material? Is it just a coincidence?" said Brownlee, who's known as MKBHD.

Naturally, he also wanted to know if he could opt out and prevent his videos from being used to train AI models. "We don't know if it's too late to opt out," Brownlee said.

'Not a sustainable model'

In an interview with The New York Times published in October, Balaji said AI chatbots like ChatGPT are stripping away the commercial value of people's work and services.

The publication reported that while working at OpenAI, Balaji was part of a team that collected data from the internet for AI model training. He joined the startup with high hopes for how AI could help society, but became disillusioned, NYT wrote. 

"This is not a sustainable model for the internet ecosystem," he told the publication.

In a statement to the Times about Balaji's comments, OpenAI said the way it builds AI models is protected by fair use copyright principles and supported by legal precedents. "We view this principle as fair to creators, necessary for innovators, and critical for US competitiveness," it added.

In his essay, Balaji disagreed.

One of the four tests for copyright infringement is whether a new work impacts the potential market for, or value of, the original copyrighted work. If it does this type of damage, then it's not "fair use" and is not allowed. 

Balaji concluded that ChatGPT and other AI models don't quality for fair use copyright protection. 

"None of the four factors seem to weigh in favor of ChatGPT being a fair use of its training data," he wrote. "That being said, none of the arguments here are fundamentally specific to ChatGPT either, and similar arguments could be made for many generative AI products in a wide variety of domains."

Talking about data

Tech companies producing these powerful AI models don't like to talk about the value of training data. They've even stopped disclosing where they get the data from, which was a common practice until a few years ago. 

"They always highlight their clever algorithms, not the underlying data," Nick Vincent, an AI researcher, told BI last year.

Balaji's death may finally give this debate the attention it deserves. 

"We are devastated to learn of this incredibly sad news today and our hearts go out to Suchir's loved ones during this difficult time," an OpenAI spokesperson told BI recently. 

If you or someone you know is experiencing depression or has had thoughts of harming themself or taking their own life, get help. In the US, call or text 988 to reach the Suicide & Crisis Lifeline, which provides 24/7, free, confidential support for people in distress, as well as best practices for professionals and resources to aid in prevention and crisis situations. Help is also available through the Crisis Text Line — just text "HOME" to 741741. The International Association for Suicide Prevention offers resources for those outside the US.

• 2025 is expected to be a robust year for mergers and acquisitions, and IPOs.
• Consequently, some investment banks are bulking up on hiring, industry recruiters say.
• Here's a look at which firms are staffing up and what sectors are seeing the most action.

When John Weinberg, the chairman and CEO of the elite boutique investment bank Evercore, sat down for a fireside chat in December at an annual Goldman Sachs conference, he revealed that his firm has been ramping up hiring.

"Most of the time, you don't really do much recruiting in November or December," he told listeners — but this year has been different. "If you could see my schedule, you'd see that virtually every day I am speaking with and recruiting" new talent, he said. "You could probably anticipate that our recruiting efforts will increase, not decrease."

Weinberg isn't the only Wall Street dealmaker for whom recruiting is top of mind. According to industry headhunters, hiring across the Street is expected to gain steam as 2025 gets underway. One headhunter said he's been so flooded with mandates as the end of the year approaches that his pipeline of work is up by as much as 70% over normal levels at this point in the year.

"We're probably up 60% to 70%," Kevin Mahoney, managing partner in the global financial-services practice at Christoph Zeiss Partners, told Business Insider. Next year is going to be "bonkers" in terms of hiring volumes, he said, adding: "We haven't been this busy in a long time."

After several years of lackluster deal activity, Wall Street is finally starting to see signs of a thaw in mergers and public offerings. A cocktail of lower interest rates, pent-up demand, and expectations for a friendlier landscape under Trump has left many dealmakers across the Street feeling bullish about the 2025 prospects for 2025. Robert Stowe, head of Americas equity capital markets at Barclays, told BI that he predicts some $50 billion in IPO volumes in the US next year. That would be a roughly 20% increase from 2024's just over $41 billion worth of IPO volumes in the Americas, as recorded by the deal-tracking firm Dealogic.

BI got an update on the latest investment-banking hiring trends from three top Wall Street headhunters: Mahoney; Meridith Dennes, managing director of recruiting at the firm Prospect Rock; and Brianne Sterling, head of the investment-banking recruiting practice at Selby Jennings.

Dennes said the industry's "musical chairs" will start to spike around January or February after bankers have received their bonuses. Many, she said, have gotten early hints about their bonus numbers this year and are privately grumbling.

"Bonuses are not coming out as strong as we expected them to be, and I think the reason is because there's been so much hiring at the senior level and at the MD level," she explained. "A lot of that compensation pool may be spoken for."

So, with moves on the way, which sectors will see the most activity? Here are a few key trends the headhunters say are worth watching in 2025.

The hot sectors

Banks big and small are already dialing up recruiting for their technology, media, and telecommunications teams, known as TMT in Wall Street parlance.

One reason, Mahoney said, is that those sectors are popular acquisition targets for financial sponsors. Indeed, private-equity firms are itching to deploy the billions they've raised from limited partners, but have been waiting for interest rates to decline.

"Something that I think will be interesting within the tech space, as well, is how teams are looking at staffing and positioning" for AI deals, as well as deals for cryptocurrency and digital-assets companies that may consolidate over the next year, Sterling of Selby Jennings said.

Tech has been a major area for banker movement, said Dennes, who also named healthcare, restructuring, industrials, consumer retail, and financial institutions (FIG) as hot. According to some of the early findings of her firm Prospect Rock's annual compensation survey, bankers in tech and restructuring displayed the highest levels of dissatisfaction with pay.

"Now, if they're not really paid," Dennes said, "they're going to want to jump — and there's opportunity for those folks to jump."

Tech dealmakers on the move

Union Square Advisors, a boutique technology-focused investment bank based in San Francisco, has onboarded a series of dealmakers recently, including tapping managing director Terry Jackson who previously worked at JPMorgan and Bank of America Securities. The firm also hired Todd Meadow to pitch in with sponsor coverage and brought on the banker Chris Appaneal to focus on software for governance, risk, and compliance.

Houlihan Lokey, a midsize firm long respected for its prowess in restructuring and distressed deals, has also been growing its wallet share in tech to win competitive M&A mandates.

This spring, the bank appointed Ryan Lund as co-head of US technology. It's been deepening the granularity of its software coverage with subsequent hires, as well — like Nana Kyei, a managing director who joined from Jefferies this fall and focuses on education tech. Geoff Rhizor joined the tech team in San Francisco in late summer; his coverage, in part, intersects with the fintech group's.

Barclays has also emphasized hiring managing directors focused on tech and healthcare deals, a company spokesperson told BI. Rob Patterson, who serves as head of data and information platforms coverage within tech investment banking, came over from Morgan Stanley. And the bank appointed David King, a former top-level banker at Bank of America, as global head of technology mergers and acquisitions this summer.

Big banks are staffing up

Some banks have already initiated widespread recruiting plans for juniors.

JPMorgan Chase, for instance, was engaged in a vigorous off-cycle recruiting spree for junior investment bankers as deal flow picked up speed this fall, according to industry sources and postings on its job board, as BI previously reported.

Goldman Sachs' careers portal recently displayed roughly a dozen openings for junior bankers in New York, San Francisco, and London. Vacancies included analyst and associate positions in coverage groups like financial institutions, entertainment banking, TMT, and industrials, as well as product-focused functions like equity capital markets.

Bankers need fresh blood: 'Send them our way'

The last time there was an M&A boom during the pandemic, many banks were caught unprepared and understaffed, resulting in complaints from overworked junior bankers.

This time, Wall Street employers say they won't make the same mistake twice — and many are eyeing boosting their junior ranks in preparation, the recruiters said.

Dennes expects an emphasis on associates and mid-level vice presidents to help juggle the ins and outs of executing the manifold deals coming down the pike. "Experienced bankers are always in demand," she said. "Anyone who has closed a couple of deals and is able to train junior staff is very valuable."

Dennes' firm, Prospect Rock, is currently working on filling four analyst roles, six associate roles, and two VP roles, postings on its website showed. Still, she doesn't see 2025 hiring following the same frenetic pattern it did during the pandemic-era M&A boom.

"In 2021, you just needed bodies — more horsepower. This is very different," she said. Now, banks are markedly more vigilant in emphasizing quality over quantity. "Nobody wants a 2021, 2022 redo," she added. "A lot of those hires were not strong."

Some senior dealmakers are already worried about short-staffing. A managing director at a Wall Street bank told BI he was confident that 2025 would deliver a volume of work comparable with 2021 levels, if perhaps not the same soaring valuations.

"Part of the conversation that we're going to have to think through is augmenting the team at the mid-level" to handle execution, he said. In this hiring market, though, "it's almost impossible" to find impressive associates or VPs, he cautioned. "Send them our way — because it's hard."

Are you an investment-banking insider or do you have knowledge of industry moves on Wall Street? Get in touch with these reporters. Reed Alexander can be reached via email at [email protected] or via the encrypted messaging app Signal at 561-247-5758. Emmalyse Brownstein can be reached at [email protected] or via Signal at 305-857-5516.

• Built in the 1920s, Mar-a-Lago has belonged to America's richest woman, the government, and Trump.
• Since Trump bought Mar-a-Lago in 1985, it has been central to financial and legal controversies.
• Here's the lowdown on the estate's history, value, and future in the MAGA orbit.

Mar-a-Lago, President-elect Donald Trump's Palm Beach resort, sits at the center of MAGA political life, serving as the home to lucrative fundraisers, political meetings, and even FBI raids.

The sprawling estate, however, long predates Trump's rise and stretches all the way back to early 20th century America. From its days as a cereal heiress' home to its current iteration as de-facto political headquarters, the property has generated intrigue and controversy, particularly among the nation's elite.

Mar-a-Lago history

In 1924, Marjorie Merriweather Post, the heiress to her father's cereal fortune and the country's richest woman at the time, bought a property in Palm Beach, Florida. Three years of construction later, she opened Mar-a-Lago, which translates to "sea to lake." The 20-acre club, nestled between the Atlantic Ocean and Lake Worth, cost about $7 million to build, equivalent to about $100 million today.

The sprawling estate was constructed in the image of Mediterranean coastal villas and brought together Spanish, Venetian, and Portuguese architectural styles. Post imported stone from Italy, silk panels from Venice. She used Mar-a-Lago to host lavish parties for America's elite, as well as philanthropic events. In January, 1969, the federal government designated the estate a national historic sight, and Congress added it to the register of historic places in 1972.

Post died in 1973 and donated the 114-room property to the federal government in the hopes that it would become a president's "winter White House." After 10 years, the government decided it could no longer justify the maintenance costs, so looked into selling the estate.

Enter: Donald Trump.

Donald Trump's acquisition of Mar-a-Lago

Trump bought Mar-a-Lago and many of its furnishings in 1985 for a relatively low sum — around $10 million, or around $29 million today. Originally, Trump used the estate as a private residence, with an opulent interior reminiscent of European palaces. When the Trump Organization ran into financial troubles in the 1990s, though, the property became too expensive to keep up — it cost more than $3 million each year and didn't turn a profit.

Initially, Trump wanted to split up the grounds around the main home and build eight houses named "The Mansions at Mar-a-Lago." He bumped up against Palm Beach officials and historic preservationists, though, and a landmark commission eventually rejected his proposal. His plans thwarted, Trump opened Mar-a-Lago as a club in 1995.

Under an agreement with the town of Palm Beach, membership at Mar-a-Lago is capped at 500 members. Back then, Trump said the initiation fee cost $25,000. By 2017, that number had jumped up to $200,000, and $300,000 in October, 2024. On top of the initiation fee, members pay annual dues of around $20,000 and there is a reported $2,000 minimum annual dining requirement.

The current value of Mar-a-Lago was a point of significant contention in a civil fraud trial against Trump about his alleged efforts to mislead banks and insurers about property values. Trump had previously said that the estate was worth more than $1 billion and obsessed over the valuation while speaking on the witness stand during his trial, which resulted in a guilty verdict. According to the suit, the Trump Organization valued the property at a high of $739 million between 2011 and 2021.

Though Palm Beach County tax appraisers valued Mar-a-Lago between $18 million and $37 million, that assessment relates to its net income as a club rather than its value as a home. Prosecutors in the civil fraud case said it should be valued at $75 million.

Mar-a-Lago Club today

The resort recently hiked up the initiation fee once again, raising it to $1 million. Membership grants access to the dining facilities, spa, pool, beach club, guest rooms, fitness center, tennis courts, and croquet lawns.

There are no restaurant menus available on the Mar-a-Lago website, which advertises themed dinners, fashion show lunches, and a seafood night. The resort is also available for events like weddings, though no prices are listed on the website for those services or rooms, either. In order to host an event at Mar-a-Lago, one needs to be sponsored by a current club member. Trump and Melania had their wedding reception at the estate.

Applications to join the club soared after Trump won the presidency in 2016. Membership lists are generally kept private, though those reviewed by media outlets have included Wall Streeters, real estate moguls, and campaign donors. Among them are former New England Patriots manager Bill Belichick, oil refiner Bill Koch, and real estate mogul Robert LeFrak.

Various celebrities have visited the resort over the years, including Celine Dion and Serena Williams. In 1992, convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein reportedly hosted a party there.

Despite its financial exclusivity, Mar-a-Lago was inclusive compared to surrounding resorts when it first opened. Trump allowed Jews and African-Americans who had been barred from other facilities to join, and he is thought to be Palm Beach's first private club owner to admit an openly gay couple.

Mar-a-Lago's role in politics

In the decades since it opened, Mar-a-Lago's guest list has become more dominated by Republican lawmakers, lobbyists, tech executives, and MAGA influencers. It's now a hub of Trump's political activity and has unwittingly fulfilled Post's vision of a presidential escape.

Winter White House

In a post on X from two days before his first inauguration, Trump dubbed Mar-a-Lago his "Winter White House." He spent approximately 25% of his first month in office at the resort and had switched his formal residence to Florida by 2019.

Trump has hosted the leaders of at least seven foreign countries at Mar-a-Lago, including Chinese President Xi Jinping and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. When he was president, Secret Service agents frequently stayed with him at the properties. The cost of an overnight stay is not entirely clear, but in 2017 taxpayers paid as much as $650 per night for each room agents occupied, according to federal records. In 2018, the rate dipped to $396.15 per night.

In addition to hosting meetings at Mar-a-Lago, Trump authorized a missile strike on Syria from the property in 2017.

Mar-a-Lago as Trump's post-presidency home

After leaving the White House in 2017, Trump moved back to Mar-a-Lago despite resistance from neighbors. Some Palm Beach residents objected to his plans, arguing that the 1993 agreement that established the club barred him from doing so. Under the agreement, club members cannot stay at Mar-a-Lago for more than seven consecutive days or 21 days annually, but it does not explicitly say whether Trump can legally live there. Eventually, the town's attorney determined that Trump can legally live at Mar-a-Lago if he's considered an employee of the club, and the town council decided he's a "bone fide employee."

Mar-a-Lago was a favored locale for Trump and his supporters throughout the 2024 campaign. He held various fundraisers at the resort, including meals where tickets could cost tens of thousands of dollars. Trump watched election results roll in from the property, surrounded by family and Elon Musk.

Trump barely left Mar-a-Lago after winning a second term, turning the estate into his transition team's home base. Corporate CEOs and tech leaders all flocked to the property, which provided the most immediate access to the president-elect.

Controversies involving Mar-a-Lago

Since Trump took office in 2917, Mar-a-Lago has been the source of various political and legal controversies, and will likely sit at the center of more ethical questions during his second term.

Classified documents case

When presidents leave the White House, they are required to give their records to the National Archives and Records Administration; failing to do so and moving sensitive material to an unauthorized location is a crime. As Trump moved from Washington, DC to Mar-a-Lago, prosecutors said that he and his staff took classified documents with him. The boxes were allegedly scattered throughout the property, including in a shower, on the stage of a ballroom, and in accessible storage rooms. A former White House press secretary testified that she saw Trump show people classified documents on the dining patio at Mar-a-Lago.

The National Archives worked throughout 2021 and 2022 to regain the material. The Federal Bureau of Investigation eventually raided Mar-a-Lago in August of 2022, seizing thousands of documents, including around 100 that were classified. Jack Smith was appointed special counsel in the Justice Department's probe and charged Trump with illegally retaining national defense information, obstructing justice, and concealing documents. Trump pleaded not guilty to 40 criminal counts.

Trump's lawyers sought to delay the case until after the 2024 election and then have it thrown out entirely. Eventually, the judge dismissed the case on the legally dubious ground that Smith's appointment was improper. After Trump won a second term, Smith abandoned the case based on Justice Department policy against prosecuting a sitting president. Prosecutors could theoretically pick the case back up once Trump leaves office.

Security issues

Mar-a-Lago has posed security challenges for years, with one former FBI agent calling it a "counterintelligence nightmare." Members can bring in anyone as a guest and there have been incidents of trespassing. The Secret Service has increased its presence at the estate since Trump won the election and the US Coast Guard now monitors waterways nearby.

Two assassination attempts against Trump during the campaign, including one at his Palm Beach golf course, put renewed scrutiny on security concerns. The Secret Service faces challenges when protecting a president outside, particularly on a golf course with large open areas lined by potential hiding places like trees.

Ethics and financial scrutiny

During Trump's first term, lobbyists, politicians, and others spent money at Mar-a-Lago and the Trump hotel in Washington, DC. Foreign officials and corporate executives stayed at both properties, raising fears for some that people could subtly gain influence with Trump by financially supporting his properties. An investigation from the Government Accountability Office in 2020 found that three Mar-a-Lago club members influenced policy decisions at the Department of Government Affairs.

Since Trump sold the DC hotel in 2022, Mar-a-Lago may become the sole go-to hub, as it did for his transition team.

Trump resigned from the Trump Organization, his real estate business, when he took office the first time. At the time, the company promised not to make any new foreign deals while Trump was in office, but it's unclear whether it will reinstate that ban or adopt the same ethics rules. In the past four years, Trump has also started Trump Media & Technology Group, parent company to Truth Social, and ventured into cryptocurrency. Some legal and ethics experts worry that interested parties could also invest in either of those companies to exert influence.

"President Trump is grateful for the residents of Palm Beach, where he makes his home at Mar-a-Lago. He removed himself from his multi-billion dollar real estate empire to run for office and forewent his government salary, becoming the first President to actually lose net worth while serving in the White House," Steven Cheung, Trump's communications director, told BI in a statement.

Representatives for the Trump Organization did not respond to Business Insider's request for comment. Mar-a-Lago does not have a press office.

• VCs are increasingly looking for candidates with deep technical expertise, especially in AI.
• Increasingly, VCs square off with the hottest AI companies to secure top talent.
• VC firms can't compete with companies like OpenAI on compensation.

Matt Hoffman, head of talent at M13, an early-stage venture firm, is preparing to hire a new junior investor sometime next year. As recently as a year ago, he would have sought out someone from a top business school or consulting firm. Now, he wants someone with deep technical expertise.

"The technology is just getting really sophisticated," Hoffman said. "You need to have enough sophistication to be able to understand the tech you are assessing."

As venture firms struggle to raise new funds, they have been hiring fewer roles and even shedding staff. On rarer occasions when they are hiring, they are increasingly seeking out candidates with deep domain expertise, especially in artificial intelligence.

"We certainly noticed it in the past 3 to 6 months, and like a lot of VC, once it kind of takes momentum, it snowballs, and all the other VCs are doing it," Hoffman said. "The traditional MBA background will not be sufficient for the best investors going forward."

Evaluating previous generations of startups required less sophistication, according to Deedy Das, who this year was hired as a principal at Menlo Ventures, which backs OpenAI rival Anthropic. He previously worked for nearly a decade in senior engineering roles at Facebook, Google, and Glean, a buzzy AI-powered search startup valued at $4.6 billion.

"To understand Facebook, you don't need to be technical to get it," Das said. "You know people go online to use an app and connect with their friends. You can see how it can make money. For AI, if I tell you I have the best model in the world, how are you, as a non-technical person, going to call my BS on that?"

Ben Lerer, managing partner at Lerer Hippeau, says he wants to hire "younger people who are more natively growing up with AI and think about AI as less of a novelty and more of just a sort of inevitability."

Hiring for the investing theme du jour

Mark Suster, a partner at Upfront Ventures, says he used to recruit from blue-chip consulting firms like McKinsey & Company and Bain & Company, whereas recent hires have all brought specific expertise in areas the firm wants to focus on.

"I don't think generalist works anymore because venture capital is too competitive now," said Suster.

"We're going much deeper in our industries, and so when we went to invest in healthcare, we hired a healthcare expert. Now that we're doing more semiconductors, we're trying to get somebody with semiconductor experience. We're doing more with satellites, so we want someone from day one who understands the customer and the technology."

Upfront is currently hiring for an investment associate focused on machine learning and AI.

Last year, Khosla Ventures hired John Chu as a partner, who held senior engineering roles at Meta and Opendoor. This fall, Katie Jacobs Stanton, a longtime Twitter insider turned venture capitalist, hired a former engineering leader to her firm, Moxxie Ventures.

Ashwin Lalendran worked on drones at the Air Force Research Laboratory, shipped 3D vision software for Apple's mapping and self-driving-car projects, and led a team of engineers to scale the world's largest private-owned network of ocean sensors at Sofar Ocean.

He joins Moxxie's deep bench of operators to assist with sourcing, evaluating, and closing deals in deep tech, hardware, and national security, areas where Moxxie has deepened its focus over the past year.

Firms have long hired from certain networks based on the investment theme du jour, according to Yoni Rechtman, a principal at Slow Ventures, an early investor in Robinhood and PillPack.

During the fintech boom, Stripe was the hot ticket, and investors rushed to hire from the fintech giant.

Today, firms are chasing after ex-Palantir and OpenAI employees to fill out their ranks — some of them are restaffing after years of hiring slowdowns or job cuts, though such moves remain rare in the venture industry — and to add expertise and networks in their fields of interest.

Slow Ventures is looking to add as many as four associates over the next year based on the quality of talent on the market, Rechtman said. Being technical as an associate is a plus but not a requirement, though. "Being credible with founders because you worked at OpenAI is great," Rechtman said, "but doesn't necessarily mean much for your ability to pick stocks well."

VC firms can't compete with startups on compensation

Increasingly, venture firms find themselves squaring off with the hottest AI companies to secure top talent, according to Dan Miller, a recruiter and partner at True Search. "For a lot of VC firms, the stiffest competition for talent over the last year has been OpenAI," said Miller.

He's worked with several venture firms on partner and principal searches that lost candidates to the ChatGPT-maker. That is largely because OpenAI offers salaries above market rate and a chance to contribute to cutting-edge research and development. Those candidates, in turn, gain experience that opens doors to top-tier venture firms down the line, Miller added.

The average salary for a VC with 1-3 years of experience is $264,000, according to Glassdoor, an anonymous job review site. By contrast, OpenAI's median yearly total compensation is $534,197, according to Levels.fyi, which tracks compensation data at tech firms and startups.

"No VC will pay what a good AI engineer can make a company," said M13's Hoffman. "So our job is to find people who get excited about working in venture and helping to build a number of companies rather than just one."

Das said he did take a step down in pay when he joined Menlo Ventures after Glean, "but I wasn't concerned because if this worked, it would be a long-term bet where the comp would be fine," Das said.

He explained that he was excited to try venture because he was ready for a new challenge and also thought his technical chops would give him an edge over generalist investors evaluating AI infrastructure and machine learning deals.

"I thought a lot of venture capitalists were actually pretty terrible doing diligence on companies that were technical because they weren't technical."

Das was recently on a call with co-investors, and they needed his expertise. They were stumped and needed help understanding some of the jargon the founder of an AI startup was using.

"I chuckled because every second pitch I see is some version of fancy technical lingo, which actually doesn't mean much if you dig into it," Das said. "That's something a traditional investor has a really hard time seeing through."

Immigration attorney Sophie Alcorn is sharing this advice with her high-tech clientele: Get back to the US before President-elect Donald Trump takes office.

The new year brings Trump's return to Washington, and with it, immigration lawyers like Alcorn say they're fielding nonstop calls from tech worker clients to discuss policy changes that may take place under the second Trump administration. Alcorn said she's helping clients file petitions and extensions under current policies and is telling those with valid visas to consider returning to the country from temporary travel overseas before Trump takes office out of an abundance of caution.

Trump swept to victory on promises to deport millions of immigrants in the country illegally, but he's offered few hints into how he will shape a legal immigration system that pipes highly educated foreign workers into tech jobs.

During his first term, Trump signed a series of executive orders that limited access to many work visa types, impacting an important source of technical talent, according to conversations with four immigration attorneys.

They expect Trump to run some of those plays again. "A storm is coming," said Jason Finkelman of Finkelman Law, "and this time, we know exactly what it's going to bring."

A travel ban 2.0 could limit access for the tech talent pool

In the first week of his first term, Trump signed an executive order restricting travel from seven countries with large Muslim populations, virtually blocking immigration from those nations. It also prevented professionals from traveling out of the country for work or personal reasons because they feared they would be unable to return.

In a September speech prior to the election, Trump said he would reinstate his "famous travel ban" and expand it to prevent refugees from Gaza from entering the country.

The last travel ban sparked outcries from tech firms that rely on foreigners with special expertise to fill their ranks and help shape their technologies. Hundreds of executives and employees such as Sam Altman and Sergey Brin converged on San Francisco International Airport in protest, while Box CEO Aaron Levie and the founders of Lyft pledged their support to the American Civil Liberties Union, which filed a lawsuit seeking to stop the order.

The travel ban faced a series of challenges in the lower courts and didn't take full effect until the Supreme Court upheld the order more than a year after Trump signed it.

"I think its possible that Trump may attempt to impose travel bans from certain countries just as he did when he initially tried to implement travel restrictions," said Jason Finkelman, who's based in Austin. "While I think travel bans will likely face challenges in the courts it may lead to issues of US employers being restricted from hiring and retaining the foreign talent they need for their operations."

Elizabeth Goss, who runs her own law practice in Boston, and Justin Parsons, a partner at Erickson Immigration Group's office in Arlington, Virginia, said they believed a travel ban 2.0 would affect different countries this time around, based on this administration's priorities.

"The wildcard for me," said Parsons, "is what happens to China." The president-elect has vowed to enact higher tariffs on Chinese goods, in an effort to hobble the world's second-largest economy. Parsons has asked himself if Trump would ban travel from China to further these efforts.

Trump could decrease access to a commonly used visa type by tech companies

The tech sector is the biggest beneficiary of the H-1B visa, which allows employers to fill specialty roles with highly educated foreign workers. Last year, more than half of these visas went to workers in computer-related roles, according to data from the US Citizenship and Immigration Services.

During Trump's first term, government data shows that denial rates for new employees and requests for further evidence of eligibility surged. In 2020, the Trump administration temporarily paused the issuance of new green cards and many work visa types, arguing that this would protect American jobs during a pandemic decline in employment.

The Biden administration has moved to reverse some of these policies and facilitate the processing of work-related visas. In December, the White House published new regulations that allow the immigration agency to process applications more quickly for most individuals who had previously been approved for an H-1B visa.

Jason Finkelman said the new rules "give predictability to employers and foreign nationals on the extensions of their visa petitions when there has been no change in the job duties or the employer." He added that it's plausible Trump can withdraw the regulations once he takes office, however.

Elizabeth Goss offered a more optimistic outlook. She suggested that if Elon Musk has Trump's ear, he might be able to persuade the president to leave the program untouched or even expand the number of visas issued, though such a move hasn't been made since President Bill Clinton raised the limit at the top of the dot-com bubble.

Canadians could be turned away

Historically, Canadians have had access to temporary work visa types, the L-1 and the TN, which allowed them to move across the border with less friction. However, according to Justin Parsons, they could face new headwinds under Trump.

Tech companies like Google, Microsoft, and Apple have relied heavily on the L-1 visa to transfer an executive or manager from one of their foreign offices to one of their domestic offices. Canadians have been able to apply for this visa at an international airport or border station without having to file a petition with the US Citizenship and Immigration Services, a far more cumbersome process.

In 2017, under the Trump administration, some border agents began refusing to process or renew work visas for Canadians already working in the country, Parsons said. The border agents would challenge their eligibility over what Parsons described as arbitrary reasons, or direct them to the immigration agency. This delayed workers who were traveling home from returning.

At the time, Parsons also observed Canadian clients on the TN visa — a temporary work visa for Canadians and Mexicans created under the North American Free Trade Agreement — come under increased scrutiny at the border.

Parsons expressed concern for Canadians that the probing measures might be reintroduced and potentially intensified under Trump's second term.

• Rohan Doctor was a managing director at Goldman Sachs when he founded Louisa AI.
• The startup uses AI to feed deal ideas and networking prompts to bankers and investors.
• Here's why he wants to bring the dealmaking playbook to startups.

Cold call after cold call, Rohan Doctor wasn't getting as far as he would've hoped.

The former Goldman Sachs managing director had emailed a list of digital strategy execs at banks and private equity firms to try to sell them on his startup, Louisa AI. But he only got a handful of replies back.

Two years since its launch, Louisa AI has secured about a dozen clients, including some of the biggest names in corporate America. They include Goldman Sachs, VC firm Insight Partners, and, more recently, one of the biggest AI chipmakers and a top consulting firm. But he didn't secure those contracts from cold outreach. He used his own startup's technology, which proactively prompts deal ideas based on people's personal and professional connections, to get in through the front door.

Now, Doctor wants to bring his dealmaking playbook to other startups ahead of an anticipated M&A boom.

"If we're able to close more deals through warm relationships this way, then other startups can, too," he said.

The near-term outlook for M&A activity has gotten brighter, with lower interest rates reducing the cost of borrowing. Wall Street execs are optimistic that Trump's return to the White House, and any business-friendly regulations that may come with it, will be a tailwind for dealmaking. Also, companies resetting their valuations could spur more transactions to close as price expectations align between buyers and sellers.

Meanwhile, in Silicon Valley, VCs and founders are hopeful about the anticipated looser environment, which could boost tech building and dealmaking. VCs, which rely on selling startups in M&A deals for many of their returns, have been dampened by the Federal Trade Commission's antitrust stance on M&A.

Louisa AI was built to suggest potential deals based on the data it's exposed to. It ingests information about who and what employees know by plugging into company CRMs, messaging platforms like Slack and Symphony, and email providers. Since spinning out of Goldman Sachs in 2023, Louisa AI has raised $5 million in seed funding. It suggests about $1 billion in deal values per quarter, Doctor said.

It also highlights mutual connections to establish a warm introduction, which can make all the difference in the multi-billion investment banking industry built on relationships. While running the bank-solutions group at Goldman Sachs, Rohan Doctor used his network to close transactions worth tens of millions of dollars. As a startup founder, it's been a different story.

"I've tried the cold outreach and just emailing," Doctor said, adding that the startup stopped doing that after it didn't yield good results. What has worked for Doctor is realizing he knows someone who knows someone.

Louisa AI scored the chipmaker contract after the AI flagged that one of Doctor's staff used to work for someone who now worked at the chip manufacturer. With the consultancy, one of Louisa AI's investors connected Doctor with the consulting firm they used to work for. He declined to name these firms due to non-disclosure agreements.

"Everything needs to be warm when it comes to big companies doing big things with other people. It has to rely on trust," he said.

• YouTube star MrBeast has a new competition show that will debut Thursday on Amazon Prime Video.
• BI viewed a copy of a contestant release form and other documents for the preliminary "Beast Games" round.
• An entertainment attorney said the documents were fairly standard but expansive in their terms.

Documents obtained by Business Insider reveal the terms that contestants of MrBeast's competition show, "Beast Games," were asked to agree to during a preliminary round.

The terms prohibit contestants from disclosing information about the show, which debuts Thursday on Amazon Prime Video. Contestants who break the agreement prior to the last episode airing must pay the producer and network $500,000 for each breach. After the last episode airs, each breach would cost contestants $100,000, the documents said.

The documents also ask contestants to agree that their portrayal in the program may be "disparaging, defamatory, embarrassing, or of an otherwise unfavorable nature," and may expose them to "public ridicule, humiliation, or condemnation."

Daniel J. Ain, an entertainment attorney at RPJ Law, said the terms are largely standard for a competition show, but some — like the threat of a $500,000 charge for each breach — are particularly expansive.

"The producers use every available tool to give them ultimate flexibility to make the show and protect themselves from liability," Ain told BI, calling the documents a "contestant agreement on steroids."

"Beast Games" is a 10-episode physical competition show in which contestants compete for a $5 million prize. YouTube's top star — whose real name is Jimmy Donaldson — is the host.

The show has attracted some controversy ahead of its release. A New York Times report in August cited "over a dozen" participants who said they didn't receive enough food or medical care during the preliminary round of competition in Las Vegas.

The documents obtained by Business Insider relate to the Las Vegas taping, where over 2,000 contestants participated in physical challenges designed to see who would make the show's official production round in Toronto.

The documents include information about the show, a contestant questionnaire form, and an outline of the show's official rules and protocols. By signing the form, contestants gave full consent to the use of hidden cameras and recording devices, gave producers full discretion to edit footage, and agreed to participate for no money. Potential prizes were the only form of compensation.

A person close to the production characterized the Las Vegas production as a "promo shoot" for the show and said Amazon wasn't involved. Amazon did not respond to a request for comment from BI.

Read 24 pages of the documents below:

Note: BI omitted some pages from the document that included the contestant's personal information and a few pages with minimal or repeated information.

• Early testers of Google's new AI video generator compared it with OpenAI's Sora.
• So far, Google's results are blowing OpenAI's out of the water.
• Google has tapped YouTube to train its AI models but says other companies can't do the same.

Not to let OpenAI have all the fun with its 12 days of 'Shipmas,' Google on Monday revealed its new AI video generator, Veo 2. Early testers found it's blowing OpenAI's Sora out of the water.

OpenAI made its Sora AI video generator available for general use earlier this month, while Google's is still in early preview. Still, people are sharing comparisons of the two models running the same prompts, and so far, Veo has proved more impressive.

Why is Google's Veo 2 doing better than Sora so far? The answer may be YouTube, which Google owns and has used to train these models.

TED host and former Googler Bilawal Sidhu shared some comparisons of Google's Veo 2 and OpenAI's Sora on X.

He said he used the prompt, "Eating soup like they do in Europe, the old fashioned way," which generated a terrifying result in Sora and something more impressive in Google's Veo 2.

Here's another, which took a prompt that YouTube star Marques Brownlee had tried in a video reviewing Sora.

This one from EasyGen founder Ruben Hassid included a prompt for someone cutting a tomato with a knife. In the video he shared, we see how Google's Veo 2 had the knife going cleanly through the tomato and avoiding fingers, while the knife in Sora's video cut through the hand.

Granted, these are cherry-picked examples, but the consensus among AI enthusiasts is that Google has outperformed.

Andreessen Horowitz partner Justine Moore wrote on X that she had spent a few hours testing Veo against Sora and believed Sora's "biases towards more motion" while Veo focuses on accuracy and physics.

Google has been open about tapping YouTube data for its AI, but it does not permit others to do the same. The New York Times previously reported that OpenAI had trained its models using some YouTube data anyway. YouTube CEO Neal Mohan said OpenAI doing this would violate Google's policies.

BI previously reported that Google's DeepMind also tapped YouTube's vast trove of content to build an impressive music generator that never saw the light of day.

Google did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Are you a Google or OpenAI employee? Got more insight to share? You can reach the reporter Hugh Langley via the encrypted messaging app Signal (+1-628-228-1836) or email ([email protected]).

• The Supreme Court has agreed to hear TikTok's case against a forced sale or ban.
• It may be TikTok's last hope at staying in the US, as it lost its case in the DC Circuit.
• President-elect Donald Trump may also try to save TikTok, though his options are limited.

The Supreme Court has agreed to hear oral arguments on January 10 around the TikTok divest-or-ban law. It could be TikTok's last hope of maintaining a presence in the US.

TikTok is challenging an April bill passed by Congress that required its owner, ByteDance, to divest from its US app or see it removed from app stores on January 19.

Congress has called TikTok a national security risk because its parent company is based in China, a country the US government views as a foreign adversary. US officials worry that TikTok could be used as a propaganda tool by the Chinese Communist Party. Members of Congress are also concerned that TikTok's US user data could end up in the hands of the CCP. TikTok has previously said that it does not share information with the Chinese government and relies on a US-based team to moderate content "independently from China."

TikTok filed a lawsuit against the legislation in the DC Circuit Court in May, arguing that it violated its users' First Amendment rights. The company lost its case earlier this month and filed an appeal to the Supreme Court, requesting an injunction to stop enforcement of the law until it can argue its case to the highest court. The Supreme Court has not yet agreed to pause enforcement of the law, though oral arguments will start before the ban is set to take effect.

It's not clear that the Supreme Court will be any more favorable to TikTok than the DC Circuit Court judges. In a recent report, Matthew Schettenhelm, a senior litigation analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, gave the company a 20% chance of reversing its loss at the Supreme Court.

If the Supreme Court opts not to rescue TikTok, Donald Trump may still try to, though his options are limited. The incoming president met with TikTok's top executive, Shou Chew, on Monday, and said during a press conference that day that he would "take a look at TikTok" and had "a warm spot in my heart for TikTok."

If TikTok is pulled from app stores in early 2025, it would disrupt the businesses of some creators who rely on the app to make money. While many creators have built audiences on other short-video platforms like YouTube shorts and Instagram reels, TikTok is still the main hub for some talent. E-commerce sellers that lean heavily on TikTok's feature Shop will also have to pivot in the wake of a ban.

"A ban would be detrimental to up-and-coming creators and small businesses that rely solely or primarily on the app," Jasmine Enberg, the vice president and principal analyst at EMARKETER, told BI earlier this month. "Big brands and established creators would also be disrupted, but can better withstand the upheaval as they're more likely to have diversified their channels and have large, engaged audiences on other platforms."

• The hiring trends among creator-economy startups can tell you a lot about the state of the industry.
• Creator Economy Jobs analyzed hiring posts from over 600 companies in 2024.
• Silicon Valley still has a grip on creator-related tech, while London could be the "next big" hub.

Being a creator isn't the only career path in the creator economy.

Creator Economy Jobs, a job listings platform founded by James Creech, analyzed hiring posts from over 600 creator-economy companies in 2024.

Across the board, creator-economy startups were generally hiring for roles in engineering, marketing, product, and sales.

"This year, the creator economy has definitely felt more energy and activity," Creech, who is also an investor and advisor to several creator startups, told Business Insider.

Since launching in late 2023, the platform has pooled over 1,000 job listings from creator-economy companies each quarter.

Creech's job site pulls listings from various third-party platforms and applicant tracking systems, like LinkedIn, Greenhouse, and Lever, among others. Some companies also list jobs directly through the site, Creech said.

While the creator economy — from Big Tech companies to startups — was hit hard by layoffs over the last few years, the post-hype-cycle industry appears to be landing on two feet.

Creech predicts that heading into 2025, more companies will emerge as strong players in the space and expand teams with hiring. That could prove true as a handful of creator startups have raised millions in 2024 — some, like newsletter platform Beehiiv, with the intent to hire.

Another trend Creech expects in the creator economy next year is corporate brands continuing to hire creators to fill in-house roles.

Here are a few takeaways on the state of jobs in the creator economy:

1. Creator-economy startups are in the market for engineers

"The most in-demand jobs are engineering," Creech said. "As we think about what types of companies in this space are growing and needing help, it's a lot of software businesses."

The majority of the engineering roles on CEJ are either backend or full-stack, Creech added.

Since the second quarter, the platform has had over 500 engineering jobs listed quarter-over-quarter.

The second and third most in-demand categories of jobs were in sales and marketing, respectively, Creech said.

2. Silicon Valley still has a hold on the creator economy

"We all think, 'Oh, the creator economy is Los Angeles,'" said Creech, who is based in LA himself. "When we started publishing these reports, the San Francisco Bay Area ranks the highest."

That's, in part, due to the sheer number of startups still building in the broader Silicon Valley area.

LA and New York City were the next largest US job markets throughout the year, Creech said. Meanwhile, international cities such as London, Bangkok, and Berlin have also been hubs for jobs on the platform.

"The international markets are growing really rapidly," Creech said. "We believe that the creator economy is a global phenomenon, and you're seeing people can live anywhere and build great businesses all over, and that's reflected in the fact that there are cool companies and cool jobs everywhere now."

Creech also identified London as "the next big creator economy destination."

3. These 6 companies were some of the most active job listers for 2024

When analyzing the top hiring creator-economy companies, CEJ excludes big platforms like Meta, TikTok, and Pinterest. The six companies below consistently listed new jobs within the creator economy throughout 2024, according to CEJ's data.

• Coda Payments, a monetization platform for digital products
• ElevenLabs, a generative AI and video-dubbing startup
• Impact.com, an affiliate-marketing company
• Lightricks, a content-creation and editing company
• Podimo, a podcast and audiobook platform
• Whatnot, a live-shopping company

Whatnot told BI that it would continue to prioritize hiring across all of its teams in 2025.

And Lightricks, which currently has 40 open roles, told BI that it plans to expand its teams in 2025 as it continues to build generative AI products.

ElevenLabs, meanwhile, said it plans to double its "core team" in 2025 with a focus on engineering and sales roles, while also expanding the company with hubs in Poland and India.

Many musicians struggled during the pandemic. Lil Wayne wasn't one of them. He sold master recordings from his record label's artists for more than $100 million. He was pardoned for felony gun possession in a last-minute action by then-President Donald Trump. He purchased a $15.4 million mansion in the mountains of Los Angeles.

And, as a Business Insider investigation found, he received an $8.9 million grant from a little-known pandemic-relief program that he used to cover more than two years' worth of spending on luxury hotel stays, designer clothes, and travel to and from nightclub appearances around the country.

The rapper, whose real name is Dwayne Carter Jr., spent more than $1.3 million from the grant on private-jet flights and over $460,000 on clothes and accessories, many of them from high-end brands like Gucci and Balenciaga. He billed taxpayers more than $175,000 for expenses related to a music festival promoting his marijuana brand, GKUA, including clothing for artists associated with his record label.

He also used grant money to cover nearly $15,000 worth of flights and luxury hotel rooms for women whose connection to Lil Wayne's touring operation was unclear, including a waitress at a Hooters-type restaurant and a porn actress.

On New Year's Eve 2021, he was scheduled to perform at a concert in Coachella, California.

But shortly before his set was scheduled to start, a concert employee announced that the rapper would be unable to perform "because of the wind and the flights." The crowd booed. (Wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph were reported in Southern California that night, but data from Flightradar24 indicates four other private jets flew the exact route Lil Wayne was scheduled to fly.)

Instead, posts on Instagram suggest he partied that night at a club on Sunset Boulevard with the rapper 2 Chainz.

For expenses related to the concert he never performed, Lil Wayne billed taxpayers nearly $88,000.

Lil Wayne's publicists didn't respond to numerous requests for comment on detailed questions. Reached by text, Lil Wayne made a sexually explicit overture to a reporter and did not respond to questions.

'An abuse of federal resources'

The money came from a program called the Shuttered Venue Operators Grant. Signed into law by Trump in 2020 and championed by lawmakers including Sen. Chuck Schumer, it was established as a lifeline for struggling independent venues and arts groups during the pandemic.

But pop stars used the program as a piggy bank to keep the party going, reporting by Business Insider shows.

The stars' spending took place against a backdrop of massive pandemic-relief fraud. The Paycheck Protection Program and Economic Injury Disaster Loans gave out as much as $200 billion in suspected false claims, losses that combined with false unemployment-benefit claims amount to what the FBI has called the largest fraud in history. Compared with those better-known programs, the Shuttered Venue Operators Grant had relatively strict eligibility requirements.

Still, accounting firms and money managers soon realized their stadium-filling musician clients might be eligible for grant money via their loan-out companies — corporate entities used to handle the business of touring. Grants awarded to clients of one high-powered entertainment-business-management firm, NKSFB, totaled at least $207 million, BI previously reported. NKSFB itself collected more than $7 million by helping its clients obtain the grants.

NKSFB's managing partner, Mickey Segal, didn't respond to requests for comment. The firm's lawyer Bryan Freedman said NKSFB doesn't comment on its clients' finances.

Grantees received up to $10 million that they could spend on certain "ordinary and necessary" expenses for their entertainment businesses. They had to make a good-faith statement to the Small Business Administration, which oversaw the program, that the grant was necessary to support the loan-out company's "ongoing operations" and show that the company's revenue had fallen by at least 25% between one quarter of 2019 and the same quarter of 2020.

In a statement, the SBA said it followed the law. But the law directed the SBA to examine revenue, not assets. Musicians with huge bank accounts and multiple mansions were still eligible for the awards as long as their loan-out company's revenue had declined.

Thousands of pages of accounting documents reviewed by Business Insider reveal, for the first time, how some wealthy musicians — including Chris Brown, the DJ Marshmello, and members of Alice in Chains — spent grants they received through the program.

The documents include detailed records explaining how celebrity musicians spent their grants, as well as correspondence between their accountants and the SBA. Business Insider has verified the authenticity of the documents.

They reveal how artists directed millions in taxpayer funds not toward touring crew members, but instead toward their own bank accounts, luxury purchases, and entertainment expenses — often while sitting on substantial wealth from other business ventures.

One top government-accountability expert said some of the spending Business Insider identified was questionable — but stopped short of saying it was fraudulent.

"At a minimum, it smells," said David Walker, a former comptroller general of the United States. "Whether it's legal or not is up to a lawyer or ultimately to a court. But it sure smells."

The SBA said it "implemented industry-leading fraud controls."

Sen. Gary Peters, the chair of the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, said celebrity musicians' use of Shuttered Venue grants was "an abuse of federal resources." Business Insider's findings, he added, demonstrate "the need for continued oversight of pandemic-relief programs."

Pandemic relief was intended to help businesses and workers in need, the senator said — "not super wealthy celebrities."

An $80,000 birthday party

Lil Wayne wasn't the only one to engage in questionable grant spending. Chris Brown spent his grant on a big paycheck — and a big party. Of the $10 million grant Brown's company CBE Touring received, $5.1 million went to Brown personally. He also billed taxpayers nearly $80,000 for his 33rd birthday party.

The blowout, held in a luxe Los Angeles event space, featured a $3,650 LED dance floor and "atmosphere models" — nude women in body paint — who cost $2,100, according to expense reports and a blog post by the party planner. The bill included more than $29,000 for hookahs, bottle service, "nitrogen ice cream," and damages involving burn holes to rented couches.

While the grant was meant to support live entertainment, Brown also charged $24,000 to the grant for the cost of driving his tour bus from the US to Tulum, Mexico, and back in fall 2020 during a monthlong stay for him and his entourage in the resort town, where he did not perform. He spent several days in Tulum filming a video with Jack Harlow for a joint track, but it's not clear if the rest of the trip was for business or pleasure. And more than $179,000 of the grant went toward a celebrity basketball tournament broadcast on YouTube, including a $20,000 payment to the Indianapolis Colts tight end Mo Alie-Cox, who played on Brown's basketball team.

Brown, his attorneys, and managers did not respond to requests for comment. Representatives for Harlow and Alie-Cox also didn't respond to requests for comment.

Others also paid themselves, taking advantage of an SVOG spending category that Business Insider drew attention to last year: "owner compensation."

The SBA's guidance said artists could use grants paid to their loan-out company to pay themselves as long as the check was no bigger than it was in 2019.

Marshmello, whose real name is Christopher Comstock, received a $9.9 million grant. More than a year later, when the SBA asked for proof of where it went, his business manager Steven Macauley, of NKSFB, responded by saying all the money went into Comstock's pocket.

"Because the beneficiary received 2019 Officer Draws/Salary from 365 Touring International, Inc. in excess of the SVOG Grant Award, we therefore, expensed the entire Grant balance to Payroll," Macauley wrote in an April 2023 letter seen by Business Insider.

In other words, because Comstock made more than $9.9 million from touring in 2019, he was able to award himself the entire grant. In doing so, Comstock paid himself more than any other musician who received grant money.

Comstock's publicists and his manager didn't reply to requests for comment, nor did Macauley.

Artists often paid themselves far more than they paid anyone else involved in putting on their live shows.

Steve Aoki's loan-out company, DJ Kid Millionaire Touring, used $2.4 million in grant money on payroll costs, of which $1.9 million was officer pay. Aoki is the company's only officer. Aoki's publicists didn't respond to requests for comment.

Three of the four members of the rock band Shinedown split at least $2.5 million of their $8.3 million grant. On top of those distributions, Shinedown's four members paid themselves more than $100,000 each out of the roughly $1.2 million of the grant that was allocated to payroll.

The band's 15 touring-production workers, meanwhile, received a combined $650,000 of the grant money — less than a single member of the band got. Publicists for the band didn't respond to requests for comment.

Records seen by BI show that a good chunk of the $7.7 million grant to Sremm Touring, the loan-out company for the hip-hop duo Rae Sremmurd, was paid to the rappers Slim Jxmmi and Swae Lee, whose real names are Aaquil Brown and Khalif Brown. The duo's manager, lawyer, and publicists didn't respond to requests for comment.

On March 23, 2022, records show, the Alice in Chains singer and guitarist Jerry Cantrell took in $1.4 million as an "SVOG distribution." The band's drummer, Sean Kinney, received the same amount, and its bassist, Mike Inez, booked half that sum, about $682,000.

In all, $3.4 million of the $4.1 million the grant allotted for payroll went to the three musicians at the top.

Like other grant applicants, AIC Entertainment — the three band members' touring business — had to tell the government only that the money was "necessary." But the month before they took their grant payments, the band members recorded about $48 million in income from selling the copyrights on their catalog. They made hundreds of thousands of dollars more from merchandise sales and other profit distributions in 2022.

The band spent some money to pay its staff. It paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to sound-equipment-rental firms, videographers, and managers. But the precarious nature of working in the live-entertainment business didn't change for some of its employees. Scott Dachroeden, a guitar tech and tour photographer who had worked with the band for years, received a cancer diagnosis in late 2022. The band, which records show did not spend grant money on benefits like health insurance, circulated a GoFundMe page on Twitter.

"He has no health insurance and now cannot work to pay his bills," the page said. The band's lead singer said on Facebook that Alice in Chains helped out behind the scenes, but a person familiar with the situation said that Dachroeden didn't get much, if any, money from the band during the pandemic and that after his diagnosis, the band connected Dachroeden with a charity that helps with medical bills. Dachroeden died soon after his diagnosis.

Alice in Chain's publicists and manager didn't respond to requests for comment.

Supporting 'middle-class people'

The Shuttered Venue Operators Grant program was pitched to Americans as a way to ensure that arts groups would still exist after the pandemic.

In an interview with James Corden on "The Late Late Show," Chuck Schumer cast it as a way to protect "middle-class people" and "young artists" while pandemic restrictions forced closures.

Grant money would "keep these folks going" so that "these live venues will be out there bigger and better than ever" after the restrictions lift, Schumer said. Schumer's press office and chief of staff didn't respond to comment requests.

Ultimately, more than 13,000 arts groups received grants, including some who say they wouldn't still exist otherwise.

"When the shutdowns happened, it was existential. Immediate crisis," said Brandy Hotchner, the founder of Arizona Actors Academy, an acting school in Phoenix. The grant of less than $120,000 the group received, she said, "utterly saved us."

Musicians weren't explicitly categorized as eligible — and initially, the SBA interpreted the law to mean that artists' loan-out companies couldn't qualify for the grant either.

By mid-December 2021, for reasons BI was unable to determine, the agency had reversed that decision, according to an internal memo seen by Business Insider, which cleared the way for federal funding to flow to wealthy artists. The SBA didn't respond to a question about why it reversed itself.

The business-management firm NKSFB also made millions from the program.

Partners at the firm initially believed that their celebrity clients didn't qualify for the grants. At least one partner feared that applying could be perjury, and another, Rob Salzman, thought the whole thing was "bullshit," a court document said.

Later, in an interview with Billboard magazine as part of its list of "Top Business Managers," Salzman said that applying for the grants was an example of the firm's "outside-the-box" thinking.

The change of heart led to a big payday. Court documents show the firm made at least $7.5 million in fees on the grants. Salzman didn't respond to requests for comment.

"NKSFB, one of the most respected business management firms in the world, does not comment on its clients' financial information," said Freedman, the firm's lawyer. "Based on the uninformed questions that BI has asked, it is clear it has little to no understanding on this subject."

Other white-collar professionals also outearned techs and roadies. Lawyers at the celebrity-favorite firms Greenberg Traurig and Grubman Shire Meiselas & Sacks received up to 5% of their clients' grants. Brown's manager took 7% of his grant, and Shinedown's managers received 20% of theirs. A spokesperson for Greenberg Traurig didn't answer questions about the firm's actions. Partners at Grubman Shire didn't respond to emails or phone calls.

Over $2.1 million of Lil Wayne's grant paid off a debt to a former manager, Cortez Bryant. Another $300,000 went to a former accountant, and his manager at the time, Mack Maine, whose real name is Jermaine Preyan, took $1.7 million. All told, roughly $5.3 million went to managers, accountants, and attorneys as fees and commissions — more than 13 times the amount Lil Wayne paid the drummer, sound techs, and other contractors who helped put on his live shows.

Bryant and Preyan didn't respond to requests for comment.

A music-industry insider who learned from Business Insider about NKSFB's wave of grant applications said he was stunned the Small Business Administration approved them.

"It never crossed my mind that we should be trying to get this money for my artists," said the insider, an artist manager who was involved in lobbying lawmakers to pass the legislation and who asked not to be named because of the issue's sensitivity.

"I was in countless conversations," he said. "No one ever discussed artists collecting this money. It never came up."

Hotchner, the acting-school founder, said she was "speechless" upon learning about Business Insider's reporting on how celebrity musicians spent their grants. Though the amount of money sent to pop stars is small relative to the overall amount of money disbursed through the grant program, she said she worried it would taint the public's perception of government support for the arts — support that's still needed.

"I will never forget how hard-fought-for this funding was," she said. "It's such a disappointment."

'Shut up, sit down. Process the file.'

Soon after Congress created the program, lawmakers began pressing the Small Business Administration to get money out the door. By mid-June 2021, more than 200 members of Congress had signed two separate letters demanding the agency disburse the funds expeditiously, saying arts organizations could go out of business without immediate relief.

The SBA said congressional pressure "was not the driving factor" behind changes that sped up the grant process and merely "coincided" with changes it was already making.

The agency hoped to balance a quick release of funds with a desire to protect against large-scale fraud that had plagued other pandemic programs. Its compromise was to relax some anti-fraud controls on the front end of the grant process, a report from the SBA's inspector general said. Instead, it planned to verify whether the grantees were actually eligible and how the money was spent after distributing the grants. In its response to the inspector general's report, the agency said it disagreed with the conclusion that changes to how it evaluated applications amounted to "weakened" fraud controls.

The approach had mixed results. The Government Accountability Office said that it submitted three phony applications to the program and that all three were rejected. But some of the eight current and former SBA workers who spoke to Business Insider said they felt the agency was too permissive and ignored or misinterpreted relevant rules — for example, allowing grantees to spend federal funds on thousands of dollars' worth of alcohol.

"They were just trying to get money out. If it was fraudulent, if it was not eligible — whatever," a person who worked on the grants said. They asked not to be named because they feared retaliation, but their identity is known to Business Insider.

The SBA's inspector general criticized the agency's decision to spot problems after the recipients already spent the money, saying it "does not provide sufficient fraud prevention and comes at a point when funds are potentially unrecoverable." Some SBA employees said that as the program began to wind down, they were pressured to certify recipients' compliance with program rules rather than dig through detailed records of their spending.

The SBA said in September it had recouped $43 million worth of the grants — an amount that hadn't increased since July. It's not clear how the agency recovered that money. While the SBA has a team to recover wrongfully awarded grants, an organizational chart suggests that as of late September it hadn't assigned any staff to it. Documents obtained in a public-records request said $6 billion worth of grants remain under review for compliance with program rules.

The SBA said "some" of the grants Business Insider mentioned in its reporting "remain open due to ongoing third-party audits that the Agency is resolving." The agency spokesperson didn't respond to questions about recoupment and didn't respond to a follow-up question asking which grants remain unresolved.

Four people who worked on the program said they tried to raise concerns about grantees' eligibility and spending to supervisors, to no avail. "I was never so disappointed in my fellow man than in that program," one of the people said. "The graft was unbelievable."

Two of those people said they were frustrated the agency wasn't doing more to investigate possible misspending and recover funds.

"Everybody kept saying shut up, sit down. Process the file," said a current SBA employee who asked not to be named because they're not authorized to speak to the press.

This person said that while some issues stemmed from the dwindling number of SVOG employees drowning in documentation, other problems arose because of the way the program was administered. "It was our fault because we threw this thing together in five seconds," they said.

An SBA spokesperson defended its processes. "By design, the vast majority of processing staff did not have access to the complete results of fraud checks and, therefore, are not positioned to comment on the internal review process or its outcomes," the spokesperson said in an email.

"Where credible evidence suggests funds were misspent or a grantee misrepresented their expenditures to SBA, the agency's robust fraud and waste oversight structure reviewed such allegations," the spokesperson said. "When substantiated, SBA and its law enforcement partners vigorously prosecute suspected wrongdoing. As a matter of policy, the SBA cannot comment on specific investigations or law enforcement action, whether planned or ongoing."

Meanwhile, the government has recovered at least some money from one musician.

As pandemic restrictions faded, Chris Brown returned to performing. In early 2022, he announced a 27-stop nationwide tour and launched a variety of side projects, including a novelty cereal called Breezy's Cosmic Crunch and an NFT collection.

While the Small Business Administration was disbursing money to Brown's touring company, federal and state tax authorities were becoming very interested in his finances.

In early 2021, the IRS notified Brown that he owed $3.2 million in unpaid taxes. In 2022, the IRS determined that Brown owed an additional $2.2 million, while California's Franchise Tax Board found that Brown hadn't paid $1.3 million in state taxes.

He settled these debts in April last year — but not before American taxpayers had unwittingly paid $80,000 for his birthday party.

Have a tip? Know more? Reach Jack Newsham via email ([email protected]) or via Signal (+1-314-971-1627). Do not use a work device.