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Today β€” 1 June 2025Axios News

Trump, Xi to talk this week about trade, key advisor says

1 June 2025 at 08:03

President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are likely to talk this week about the ongoing trade negotiations between the world's largest economies, National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said Sunday,

Why it matters: It would mark a major advance in the increasingly turbulent trade relationship between the countries, one that U.S. officials have suggested was necessary for progress.


Catch up quick: On Friday President Trump said on Truth Social that China had "totally violated" the tariff pause agreement the two countries reached in mid-May, raising fears the detente could be all but dead.

  • Later that evening, he doubled steel tariffs.

Between the lines: That pause deal with China contributed directly to a rebound in consumer confidence, CEO confidence and the stock market.

What they're saying: "President Trump, we expect, is going to have a wonderful conversation about the trade negotiations this week with President Xi, that's our expectation," Hassett said on ABC's This Week.

This is a developing story.

Budget head Vought floats impoundment to sidestep Congress on DOGE cuts

1 June 2025 at 07:58

The White House is weighing options like impoundment to formalize DOGE's spending cuts without going through Congress, Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought said Sunday.

Why it maters: That would tee up a potential Supreme Court fight over the scope of the 1974 Impoundment Control Act, which bars the president from cutting funding without congressional approval.


  • Trump and allies have railed against the law, which was signed after former President Nixon impounded billions.

Driving the news: Vought said on CNN's "State of the Union" that the administration "might" send all of DOGE's cuts to Congress for approval but is waiting to gauge how the $9.4 billion rescissions package the White House plans to send to lawmakers this week fares.

  • "It's the first of many rescissions bills," he said. "Some we may not actually have to get ... Congress to pass the rescissions bills."
  • Pressed by CNN's Dana Bash on why the White House would sidestep Congress, Vought continued, "We have executive tools; we have impoundment."

Vought argued spending less than was appropriated by Congress was "totally appropriate" for 200 years but that reforms in the 1970s led to "massive waste, fraud and abuse."

  • He argued that the Impoundment Control Act also allows for pocket rescissions, a practice of proposing rescissions near the end of the fiscal year to essentially run out the clock, which Vought has long championed.
  • "It's a provision that has been rarely used, but it's there," he said. "And we intend to use all of these tools. We want Congress to pass it where it's necessary; we also have executive tools."

Friction point: Asked if the administration's moves were intended tee up a Supreme Court battle over the 50-year-old law, Vought said, "We're certainly not taking impoundment off the table."

  • He continued, "We're not in love with the law," which he said upended two centuries of precedent at the "lowest moment of the executive branch."

Go deeper: Senate Dems sound alarm on Trump's budget director

Ukraine launches massive drone strike on air bases deep inside Russia

1 June 2025 at 07:34

Ukraine launched unprecedented drone strikes deep inside Russia, targeting dozens of strategic bombers at several bases, according to Ukrainian officials and videos published on social media.

Why it matters: The wide-ranging attack took place shortly before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced he is sending a delegation headed by minister of defense Rustem Umerov to ceasefire talks with Russia in Istanbul on Monday.


  • Ukraine did notify the Trump administration of the attack in advance, a Ukrainian official said.

Driving the news: A Ukrainian official told Axios the operation was conducted by the country's security service and was planned for more than a year.

  • The official said intelligence officers launched attack drones from trucks that have been covertly placed near Russian air bases β€” sone of them in Siberia β€” thousands of kilometers from Ukraine.
  • Around 40 Russian military planes β€” among them strategic bombers β€” were reportedly hit in the attack.
  • A Ukrainian official said the planes that were attacked were used by the Russian military for air strikes on Ukrainian cities.
  • Over the last 24 hours, Russia conducted heavy drone strikes on Ukrainian cities including on Kyiv.

What they are saying: Zelensky wrote on X that he had a meeting with the heads of the military and security services to get a briefing on "our defense and our active operations."

  • Zelensky confIrmed that "a full and unconditional ceasefire, release of prisoners and the return of abducted children" will be the main issues in talks with Russia on Monday.
  • "The key issues can only be resolved by the leaders," he said.

MAGA's world tour exports Trumpism beyond U.S. borders

1 June 2025 at 05:55

MAGA media heavyweights are intervening in elections around the world, increasingly obsessed with exporting President Trump's brand of right-wing populism beyond America's borders.

Why it matters: What began as a nationalist reaction to America's perceived decline has evolved into a global ideological crusade. Now at the apex of its domestic power, MAGA is rallying behind candidates who share its views on immigration, globalism and the fight for "Western Civilization."


  • "We believe the fight for freedom and conservative values doesn't stop at America's borders," Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) chair Matt Schlapp told Axios.
  • "That's why we've taken CPAC overseas β€” to stand united with courageous leaders and citizens who are resisting the globalist dangerous spread of authoritarianism, open borders, and Marxism."

Driving the news: MAGA-aligned candidates have been competitive in a spate of recent elections, emboldening pro-Trump influencers to engage more actively in foreign politics.

Poland: Conservative presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki is headed to runoff Sunday against liberal Warsaw Mayor RafaΕ‚ Trzaskowski, in a race MAGA media is treating as a bellwether for Europe's political right.

  • CPAC just held its first-ever event in Poland, where Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem took the extraordinary step of endorsing Nawrocki and denouncing Trzaskowski as a "an absolute train wreck."

Romania: MAGA leaders β€” including Vice President Vance β€” excoriated Romanian authorities for annulling the results of December's election and banning the leading far-right candidate over allegations of Russian interference.

  • In last week's re-run, MAGA podcasters like Jack Posobiec and Steve Bannon rallied behind pro-Trump candidate George Simion, who even described himself as running "on the MAGA ticket"
  • Simion ultimately fell short to centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan, a result that MAGA blamed on globalist meddling.

United Kingdom: The insurgent Reform Party, led by arch Brexiteer and Bannon friend Nigel Farage, is leading in British polls less than a year after the center-left Labour Party won a landslide election.

  • Farage has brought MAGA-style rallies to the U.K., and his growing influence has forced Prime Minister Keir Starmer to move sharply to the right on immigration.

Germany: Vance, Elon Musk and scores of pro-Trump influencers have championed the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which had its best-ever showing in elections earlier this year.

  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio condemned German intelligence's since-retracted decision to classify AfD as a right-wing extremist organization, calling it "tyranny in disguise."

Ireland: Former UFC champion Conor McGregor has teased a longshot bid for the Irish presidency on an anti-immigration platform.

  • McGregor was hosted by Trump at the White House on St. Patrick's Day, and appeared on Tucker Carlson's podcast in April.

South Korea: Bannon recorded a segment of his show Tuesday boosting the conservative candidate in South Korea's June 3 snap presidential election.

  • Some MAGA figures have spread the theory that former conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol β€” impeached and removed after declaring martial law β€” was ousted in a China-backed coup.

Between the lines: MAGA's foreign focus isn't entirely new: Trump supporters have long idolized populist strongmen like Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, Viktor OrbΓ‘n in Hungary, and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil.

  • But the movement is no longer just cheering on incumbents: It's actively trying to shape new political outcomes.
  • "The good news is that after 10 long years, the institutional MAGA movement realizes the power in having friends overseas," said Raheem Kassam, former Farage adviser and current editor of The National Pulse.

Reality check: Despite its rising international ambitions, MAGA's influence abroad has yielded mixed results.

  • The AfD has been shut out of government in Germany, Simion lost in Romania, the liberal candidate is favored to win in South Korea, and McGregor might not even make the ballot in Ireland.
  • Kassam told Axios the losses had piled up because American MAGA lacks political infrastructure abroad β€” and mistakes brash rhetoric for true rage-against-the-machine populism.
  • A win in Poland would be a major symbolic victory β€” and a sign MAGA's global playbook might finally be working.

Good economic news can't catch a break

1 June 2025 at 05:19

America is so far defying the gloomiest economic forecasts, but tariff threats keep scrambling the good news.

Why it matters: Inflation is at a four-year low, consumer sentiment might be on the mend and the stock market has recovered from its post- "Liberation Day" lows β€” but it's all being overshadowed by intensifying China trade tensions.


State of play: President Trump signaled Friday that the U.S.-China trade truce, a deal that effectively reopened trade between the world's two largest economies in May, might be in danger.

  • "The bad news is that China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Friction point: The big economic threat is that tariffs ramp up, instead of the de-escalation and new deals that the White House has indicated and Wall Street expects.

  • Economists don't expect price pressures to seep into the data until the summer months. Retailers are rolling through inventory stockpiled before the worst of the tariffs took effect.

The irony is that two consumer sentiment surveys this past week showed consumers started to feel good about the economy of late β€” or at the very least, did not feel worse β€” after the administration lowered tariffs on Chinese goods.

  • The University of Michigan's closely watched consumer sentiment index held steady in May. Sentiment is still near the lowest level ever, but the data ended four straight months of the index falling off a cliff.
  • The Conference Board noted a huge surge in its index as well.

Consumers are tying their economic fortunes to trade β€” and nothing else.

  • "Despite the many headlines about the tax and spending bill that is moving through Congress, the bill does not appear to be salient to consumers at this time," the University of Michigan said in a release.

What to watch: So far, Trump's trade drama has played out against a largely favorable economic backdrop. But there are early signs that backdrop might be shifting.

  • Consumers pulled back on spending last month, choosing to sock away their income, rather than buy things.
  • Separate data this past week showed the most recurring unemployment filings since November 2021, a indication that jobs are getting harder to find.

The bottom line: It's hard to be happy about uncertainty.

Yesterday β€” 31 May 2025Axios News

U.S. gives Iran updated nuclear deal offer

31 May 2025 at 16:10

White House envoy Steve Witkoff sent Iran "a detailed and acceptable proposal" for a nuclear deal on Saturday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said.

Why it matters: The written U.S. proposal is an attempt to resolve the issue that has log-jammed the talks: Iran's demand to continue enriching uranium on its soil, U.S. officials say.


Zoom in: One idea the U.S. is proposing is a regional consortium that will enrich uranium for civilian nuclear purposes under monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency and the U.S.

  • Another idea is for the U.S. to recognize Iran's right to enrich uranium, while Iran fully suspends its uranium enrichment.

Between the lines: Iran has consistently said it won't sign any deal that does not allow enrichment, while U.S. officials have publicly committed to denying Iran that option. To get a deal, something has to give.

Behind the scenes: The updated proposal was a result of the fifth round of negotiations between Iran and the U.S. in Rome a week ago, sources say.

  • The Iranians asked to get the U.S. position in writing after Witkoff made an oral proposal during the fourth round of talks and elaborated on it during the fifth round.
  • Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi gave Witkoff's proposal to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi during a visit to Tehran on Saturday.

State of play: U.S. officials say they're aiming to first reach a "basic agreement" laying out the principles for the nuclear deal.

  • If such an agreement is reached, technical teams from both sides will hammer out a detailed agreement.

What they're saying: Leavitt argued it’s "in Iran's best interest to accept the proposal."

  • Araghchi said Iran will respond to the proposal "in line with the principles, national interests and rights of the Iranian people".

"White With Fear" films examines the "white fear industrial complex" in U.S. politics today

31 May 2025 at 14:00

A new documentary investigates the long-running efforts by politicians and the media to stoke racial tensions and frame white Americans as victims.

Why it matters: "White With Fear," set to begin streaming on Tuesday (June 3), examines the origins of white grievance in the U.S. and how it contributed to the rollback of decades of civil rights gains.


The big picture: The film uses interviews with scholars, journalists, former Republican operatives, former and current right-wing influencers, Hillary Clinton and Steve Bannon to show how white grievance became a potent weapon.

  • From former President Richard Nixon using crime as a racist dog whistle to racist Tea Party attacks on former President Barack Obama, the documentary follows the evolution to today's polarized politics.

Director Andrew Goldberg tells Axios the idea for the film came during the pandemic and the aftermath of George Floyd's murder, when the nation appeared to be ready for a new conversation about race.

  • "We set out to think about a film that would explore this concept of whiteness."
  • That soon changed as the backlash to the Black Lives Matter movement retooled boiling white grievance that dismisses racial discrimination and was inflamed by conservative media, social media, and later Donald Trump, Goldberg said.
  • Goldberg said it became clear with book bans, laws limiting the discussion of slavery in schools and the spreading of misinformation and racist material online that he had another project on hand.

Zoom in: Operatives would use President Obama's middle name, Hussein, in mailers, rare crimes by immigrants would be highlighted and immigration reform would be dubbed as a demographic and economic threats

  • CNN media critic Brian Stelter tells Goldberg that the buildup of the "white fear industrial complex" drove up wedges and sparked more racial tension.
  • Katie McHugh, a former writer/producer at Breitbart, said she would write racist news stories for the website while getting cheered up by Trump supporters.
  • Stuart Stevens, a former Romney 2012 campaign strategist and co-founder of The Lincoln Project, said the environment now isn't about solving problems but stirring racial animus for election victories.

The intrigue: In the film, former Trump advisor Bannon offers an honest assessment of how he and others flooded the media ecosystem with far-right, conservative articles to influence opinion.

  • "We kind of put a network together of people that just continue to put out more information," Bannon said. "If you put out information and you have force multiples that just drive it, people will start to sort it out themselves."
  • Bannon said that involved stopping bipartisan immigration reform by publishing articles daily and targeting broadcast networks nonstop.
  • The film shows clips of conservative commentators then repeating racist stereotypes about Latino immigrants.

Case in point: McHugh said the film strategy was to take "reactionary, racist feelings" against non-white immigrants and show how the "elites" betrayed the working white man.

  • McHugh said that after she wrote such pieces, prominent Trump officials would email her and flatter her as a young 20-something.

State of play: The film comes as the Trump administration reinterprets Civil Rights-era laws to focus on "anti-white racism" rather than discrimination against people of color.

Bottom line: Goldberg concluded that white Americans have been manipulated for short-term electoral gains.

  • The film argues that it's a phenomenon that's taking the country backward at a time when it's growing more diverse.

White House envoy says Hamas response to U.S. proposal "takes us backward"

31 May 2025 at 12:57

White House envoy Steve Witkoff said in a statement on Saturday that Hamas' response to his ceasefire and hostage deal proposal is "totally unacceptable and only takes us backward."

Why it matters: Hamas didn't accept Witkoff's proposal as a basis for negotiations and demanded numerous changes that brought the negotiations once again to a deadlock.


  • This comes after President Trump expressed optimism on Friday about the chances of getting a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza soon and stressed that both sides "want to get out of this mess."

Driving the news: Witkoff sent Hamas a new U.S. proposal for a ceasefire and hostage deal on Wednesday. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Israel signed off on the proposal before Witkoff submitted it to Hamas.

  • Witkoff's proposal for a 60-day ceasefire β€” under which Trump would guarantee Israel's compliance β€” didn't differ much from previous propositions.
  • It involved the release of 10 live hostages and 18 deceased hostages held in Gaza β€” half on the first day and half on day 7 of the ceasefire.
  • In exchange, Israel would release 125 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences in Israel, another 1,100 Palestinians detained by the Israel Defense Forces in Gaza after Oct. 7, 2023, and the bodies of 180 Palestinians allegedly killed during attacks on Israelis.

Catch up quick: Over the last two days, Hamas has been debating the proposal internally. Some of Hamas' leaders believed that rather than meeting in the middle, Witkoff's offer included new concessions to Israel.

  • Hamas officials expressed serious concerns about the lack of clear guarantees that Israel won't again unilaterally end the ceasefire.

State of play: Hamas gave its response to Witkoff on Saturday through the Palestinian-American businessman Bishara Bahbah who has been facilitating talks with the group. Hamas also sent its response to the Egyptian and Qatari mediators.

  • In its response, Hamas asked to change the sequence and the timetable for the release of the 10 live hostages and the bodies of 18 dead hostages that are included in the deal so that it takes place on six tranches during the 60-day ceasefire.
  • Hamas also demanded that the IDF fully withdraw to the lines it was positioned before the previous ceasefire collapsed in March.
  • But the main sticking point was Hamas' demand for U.S. guarantees for ending the war.

Zoom in: While Witkoff's proposal said the U.S., Qatar and Egypt would all guarantee serious negotiations take place for a permanent ceasefire, Hamas demanded in its response a clear U.S. guarantee that the negotiations will end with an announcement on a permanent ceasefire, sources with direct knowledge said.

  • "Hamas also wanted the text to say that if an agreement on a permanent ceasefire isn't reached within 60-days, the temporary ceasefire will be automatically extended for an unlimited period," a source with direct knowledge said.

What they are saying: "Hamas should accept the framework proposal we put forward as the basis for proximity talks, which we can begin immediately this coming week," Witkoff said in a statement on Saturday, rejecting Hamas' response.

  • The White House envoy said the only way to start a negotiation on a permanent ceasefire is if Hamas agrees in the coming days to the 60-day ceasefire deal.
  • The Israeli Prime Minister's Office said that while Israel agreed to Witkoff's proposal, "Hamas continues its rejectionism."
  • "Israel will continue its efforts to bring our hostages home and to defeat Hamas," the prime minister's office said.

What to watch: The U.S., Egypt and Qatar are all pressing Hamas to revise its response, agree to Witkoff's proposal and start negotiations on the final details of the deal, sources said.

New book tackles the legend of Jim from Mark Twain's "Huckleberry Finn"

31 May 2025 at 09:00

A new book unpacks Jim in Mark Twain's "The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn" β€” a fictional enslaved Black man who is one of the most memorable characters in American Literature.

Why it matters: For more than a century, Jim has been a source of sympathy, ridicule, anger, and protest due to the Black dialect he uses throughout the novel, but scholar Shelley Fisher Fishkin says that he's been misunderstood.


The big picture: "Jim: The Life and Afterlives of Huckleberry Finn's Comrade," released last month by Yale University Press, comes out amid renewed interest in the Twain character.

  • Percival Everett recently won the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction for his novel, "James," which reimagines Jim from an illiterate enslaved man as often portrayed to a savvy and literate soul who has more agency.

Fishkin tells Axios she wanted to explore how we've viewed Jim throughout the decades and how he has shaped American culture.

  • The text in Twain's classic hasn't changed throughout the years, "but we've changed," said Fishkin, one of the world's top Twain scholars.

Catch up quick: "The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn" tells the story of Huck, a young, uneducated white boy, and Jim, an escaped slave, as they travel together down the Mississippi River on a raft.

  • The pair must avoid mobs of slave hunters and robbers along their journey and develop a sense of care for one another.
  • The book uses racist epithets of the time, and Jim speaks in a language that critics say today resembles offensive minstrel shows in the late 1800s β€” all of which have generated demands for the novel to be banned.

Yes, but: Fishkin says Twain was being subversive in the use of Jim's dialect and criticizing all the racist stereotypes with a humanized portrayal.

  • "Jim is the smartest character in the book. It's a mistake to assume he's there to be ridiculed. In fact, he becomes a father to Huck," says Fishkin, who wrote the 1993 literature critic classic, "Was Huck Black? Mark Twain and African American Voice."
  • Fishkin says Jim is a complex character who is really the first Black father portrayed in American literature.

Zoom in: In her new book, Fishkin takes on the historical myths and models of Black men in post-Civil War America.

  • She then gives us a rundown of the debates of Jim and the novel's use of racist language that have generated pushback from liberals and conservatives.
  • Fishkin then presents the reader with an innovative exercise in one chapter, exploring what Jim would say about everything in his own dialect.
  • She ends with a lesson on how some high school teachers are presenting the book today and what lessons can be learned when the book "is taught correctly."

Bottom line: Fishkin has provided us with a fascinating and nuanced deep dive into one of the most debated characters in American Literature, who continues to surface amid our modern debates about race today.

FDA approves new Moderna COVID-19 vaccine

31 May 2025 at 07:19

The Food and Drug Administration approved Moderna's next-generation COVID-19 vaccine for adults 65 and older and those 12 to 64 years old with at least one underlying condition that could put them at risk of severe infection, the company said Saturday.

The big picture: It was the first such approval since FDA tightened COVID vaccine standards and required drugmakers to conduct more studies before approving updated shots for healthy adults under 65.


  • Regulators under HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are putting new restrictions on COVID vaccines, including no longer recommending them for healthy children and healthy pregnant women.

What they're saying: Moderna CEO StΓ©phane Bancel said in a news release "COVID-19 remains a serious public health threat, with more than 47,000 Americans dying from the virus last year alone."

  • He said the approval "adds an important new tool to help protect people at high risk of severe disease from COVID-19."
  • Moderna expects to have the vaccine, called mNEXSPIKE, available for the 2025-2026 respiratory virus season

Zoom in: In a Phase 3 trial of approximately 11,400 participants, the new vaccine showed 9.3% higher relative efficacy compared to Moderna's original vaccine Spikevax in people 12 and older, and a 13.5% higher efficacy in those 65 and older.

Go deeper: What to know about COVID shots after RFK Jr. changed recommendation

Axios' Tina Reed contributed reporting to this story.

Biden says of cancer diagnosis: "The prognosis is good"

By: Sam Baker
31 May 2025 at 06:09

Former President Biden told reporters on Friday in Delaware that "all the folks are very optimistic" about successfully treating his prostate cancer.

The big picture: Biden was diagnosed earlier this month with an aggressive form of cancer that had metastasized to his bone.


What he's saying: "The prognosis is good. We're working on everything. It's moving along, and I feel good," he said.

  • "The expectation is we're going to be able to beat this. There's no β€” it's not in any organ, my bones are strong, it hadn't penetrated," he said, per The Washington Post.

Go deeper:

The great undoing: Trump's presidency reeled in by courts

By: Sam Baker
31 May 2025 at 05:36

No modern president has done more in his first 130 days than President Trump β€” only to have much of it undone, at least temporarily, by the courts.

The big picture: Trump is testing the limits of presidential power at every turn, and the courts are just about the only thing standing in his way.


  • The inevitable showdowns between Trump and the judiciary are only going to get more intense.

Judges have issued dozens of orders blocking Trump from doing something he wants to do, and the flood seems to grow every day. The headlines are constant: Judge blocks X; Judge freezes Y; Court allows Z to continue.

  • This week's ruling against Trump's tariffs β€” handed down by the usually sleepy Court of International Trade β€” was one of the biggest shockwaves yet, striking at the centerpiece of his economic agenda and efforts to exert leverage on the world stage.
  • That ruling was quickly put on ice, temporarily, by an appeals court. But there will be more tariff litigation, and more litigation on just about everything else.

On education, a federal judge in Boston this week said Trump could not stop Harvard from enrolling international students, at least for now.

  • A separate Boston-based judge last week froze Trump's plans to largely eliminate the Department of Education.

That added to an absolute mountain of litigation over Trump's various efforts to gut the federal bureaucracy.

  • Courts have stopped or slowed some DOGE-led cuts across the government, the firing of people who serve on independent boards, and the laying off of other government workers.

Immigration has been the most explosive flashpoint of all.

  • Every court that's considered Trump's executive order redefining the rules of American citizenship has ruled against it.
  • The administration has pointedly refused to bring back the man it wrongly deported to El Salvador, despite even the Supreme Court telling it to "facilitate" his return.
  • Judges in lower courts have blocked similar deportations or ordered the government to provide some sort of hearing before deporting people.

Between the lines: To some extent, this is the system working the same way it always works. The big things presidents do, at least in the modern era, end up in court.

  • Obamacare was a big thing, done by both the president and Congress. It's been before the Supreme Court no less than three times.
  • Forgiving student loans and trying to impose COVID vaccine mandates were, for better or worse, big things President Biden attempted. The Supreme Court said both were too big.

Trump has made no bones about wanting to go as big as possible, all the time, on everything β€” and to do it mostly through executive action. Everyone knew before this administration began that myriad legal challenges were inevitable. And, well, they were.

  • Unlike previous presidents, Trump and his allies have relentlessly attacked judges whose rulings block parts of his agenda.

As these battles progress, Trump will win some and lose some.

  • Every single person Trump has tried to fire may not end up fired. But if and when all of those one-off challenges coalesce into a real, big-picture Supreme Court referendum on the president's power to fire federal workers, the smart money says that's a fight Trump will most likely win.
  • On the other hand, eliminating birthright citizenship is a long shot. The Justice Department is trying to persuade the Supreme Court that it's been misinterpreting the Constitution for 100 years. That is (a) obviously going to end up in court; and (b) a hard sell.

What's next: Almost none of this β€” on any issue β€” has reached the point yet where judges are actually striking down or upholding Trump's policies.

  • This is why the headlines you see all use words like "block" or "freeze" or "temporarily." For now, what's being decided is mainly whether Trump can go ahead and enact X or Y policy while the courts figure out whether that policy is legal.

As explosive as these legal battles already are, we haven't even touched the highest-stakes chapters in the ongoing saga of Trump vs. the courts.

  • The real showdowns over the president's power β€” his power to fire people, to override Congress' spending decisions, to deport people without due process, to levy tariffs, to revoke citizens' citizenship β€” are all still to come.

The rare minerals battle behind Rubio's ban on Chinese students

31 May 2025 at 05:33

When Secretary of State Marco Rubio abruptly announced plans Wednesday to cancel the visas of all Chinese students in the U.S., the Trump administration was quick to cast it as a way to root out spies from the communist nation.

  • But behind the scenes, what really set off Rubio was the administration's realization that China was withholding precious rare-earth minerals and magnets as a tariff negotiating tool, sources tell Axios.

Why it matters: The decision to target as many as 280,000 Chinese students β€” and throw another complication into the ongoing trade talks with China β€” reflects how crucial rare minerals are to the U.S. tech industry.


  • It also signaled how angry President Trump was after deciding China was operating in bad faith.

Zoom in: That's what inspired Trump's Truth Social post on Friday: "China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US."

  • "So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!"

Zoom in: The materials at issue are crucial for computing and telecom equipment, F-35 fighter jets, drones, submarines and the Joint Direct Attack Munition series of smart bombs.

  • The seven minerals include samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium-related items.

Zoom out: Under President Xi Jinping's "Made in China 2025" initiative launched a decade ago, China has come to dominate the mining and processing of these minerals and other precious materials, such as lithium used in batteries.

  • The U.S. is the world's second-largest producer of rare-earth minerals but is dwarfed by China, which controls about 70% of mining and roughly 90% of the processing of such minerals globally, according to a Reuters report citing International Energy Agency estimates.

The big picture: Many of China's ruling party elite, including Xi, have sent their children to study in the United States. Targeting those students sends a message to leaders of the Chinese Communist Party.

  • Rubio has long been a China hawk. As a senator in 2024, he issued a report, "The World China Made," that warned it could soon have "effective control over strategic supply chains" of the materials.
  • He also sounded an alarm about China spying through U.S. educational opportunities.
  • "If you're a Chinese spy trying to get into America, you don't really have to cross the border," he told Fox News' Maria Bartiromo in June 2024. "You can just become a graduate student at one of our universities or become a visa employee at one of our tech companies."
  • As secretary of state, Rubio has launched several initiatives to monitor and revoke the visas of foreign students.

What they're saying: Education groups criticized Rubio's move. Asian Americans Advancing Justice said that "national security should undeniably be a top priority β€” but resorting to fearmongering, racial profiling, and xenophobia is never the answer."

  • Trump's administration unapologetically sees Chinese students as leverage.
  • "This is about national security, trade, our economy," a senior administration official said. "Everything is a negotiation."

The timeline: Trump launched his latest trade and tariff war on April 2, calling it "Liberation Day. Two days later, China required that companies receive export licenses for the seven minerals. The licenses restrict the flow of the minerals out of the country.

  • On May 11, the U.S. and China announced a preliminary trade deal. The two sides paused their retaliatory tariffs. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer negotiated for the U.S.
  • On May 12, when asked by Fox News' Laura Ingraham whether rare-earth export restrictions had been lifted, Greer said: "Yep. The Chinese have agreed to remove those countermeasures."
  • But on May 20, CNN confirmed reporting from other publications that China wasn't "getting rid of its controls over rare earths," despite the trade truce.

The reports confirmed what administration officials had encountered in private talks with China: It was playing rare-earth hardball.

  • "China cheats. It's what they do," Trump said, according to a White House official briefed on the president's comments in a subsequent meeting with his trade team.
  • "The president wasn't happy," the official said. "He was looking for ideas, and Rubio had this idea of Chinese students."
  • In a statement to Axios, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Rubio "made this decision in the administration's ongoing effort to protect our homeland from espionage and other hostile actions."

Just before 7 p.m. Wednesday, Rubio announced on X that the "U.S. will begin revoking visas of Chinese students, including those with connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields."

  • About that time, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick informed several U.S. companies they needed to limit or stop exporting certain types of software, semiconductor chemicals, machine tools, aviation equipment, butane and ethane, according to Reuters.
  • On Thursday, Bessent acknowledged on Fox News that trade negotiations "are a bit stalled."
  • On Friday, Trump followed up with his statement blasting China.

Hours later Deputy White House Chief of Staff Stephen Miller was on CNN, linking Rubio's announcement to the China trade talks.

  • China's industrial strategy, he said, "has been to use the student visa program to conduct espionage on America's industrial trade secrets ... our universities, our high-tech research and even our nation's most sensitive and classified projects and programs."
  • The extra scrutiny of Chinese visas will protect "the security of America's own engineering, scientific and medical research."

Patel and Bongino's choppy transition from roasting the FBI to running it

31 May 2025 at 05:22

Kash Patel and Dan Bongino spent years torching the American security state for concealing nefarious secrets about Jeffrey Epstein, Jan. 6, the "Russia hoax" and the assassination attempts against President Trump.

  • Now they're not only inside the gates, they're in charge of the FBI β€” and serving a president who distrusts the bureau even more than they do.

The big picture: Patel and Bongino's recent Fox News interviews, and sources familiar with their reception inside the bureau, make clear the difficulties they face in maintaining confidence with three key audiences: their fans, their employees, and the president.

1. Some followers and fellow MAGA media figures who revered Patel and Bongino for pillorying the "Deep State" were aghast by their recent conspiracy-quashing comments, particularly that Epstein really killed himself.

  • "People are pissed. They feel like Dan and Kash aren't doing the job, that they're beholden to some unseen powers," MAGA-aligned podcaster Tim Pool said Wednesday, adding that he "largely" still trusts the pair.
  • Bongino β€” who left a lucrative podcasting gig to be Patel's deputy β€” told "Fox and Friends" he was finding it difficult not to be able to reveal information about ongoing investigations, and to be criticized by those who want to "divorce us from the people."
  • He and Patel, who parlayed his reputation as one of Trump 1.0's most aggressive lieutenants into MAGA media stardom, have deep wells of goodwill from the base, despite the impatience for disclosures and deep state arrests.

2. The FBI's 38,000-strong workforce was never going to immediately embrace the idea of a couple of its biggest antagonists calling the shots, but it's been a tumultuous few months.

  • Bureau veterans have privately mocked Bongino's emphasis on ideas like adding pull-ups to the fitness test and MMA-style training at Quantico.
  • Some have pushed back on more substantive decisions, such as devoting scores of agents to partnering with ICE on immigration-related arrests, at the expense of other investigative priorities.

Patel told Fox News that rank-and-file FBI employees are on board with its mission, they're clearing out the old leadership, and recruiting is at a five-year high.

  • FBI spokespeople have pushed back on stories about Patel working remotely from Las Vegas, taking government planes to visit his girlfriend in Nashville, or downsizing the early morning briefings that past directors have taken.

3. While Trump has been publicly supportive, he did say it was "a little bit hard to believe" assertions from Patel and other senior law enforcement figures that there was no wider conspiracy behind the assassination attempts against him.

  • Democrats such as Sen. Dick Durbin have claimed that because loyalty to Trump earned Patel and Bongino theirs posts, they'll lack the independence of past directors and simply say what Trump wants to hear or tailor investigations to suit the White House.

What they're saying: "Many of these comments are from the same individuals responsible for the shameful politicization of the FBI in the first place. Their criticisms play no factor as we work to clean up the mess they helped leave behind," FBI spokesperson Ben Williamson told Axios.

  • "FBI Director Patel and Deputy Director Bongino are doing an incredible job protecting the American people and bringing back law and order, justice and fairness to America," said White House spokesperson Harrison Fields.

Driving the news: Patel and Bongino acknowledged in their recent flurry of interviews that their supporters want them to clean house, lock up Trump antagonists like ex-director James Comey, and reveal more about the malfeasance they and their MAGA media colleagues have long alleged the FBI engaged in β€” including fomenting the Jan. 6 riot and conspiring against Trump.

  • Bongino made a plea for time, suggesting the skullduggery ran so deep that it would take months to uncover.
  • He also claimed they had just discovered bags of hidden files from the Comey era, and would be prioritizing cases like the discovery of cocaine in the Biden White House.
  • Williamson said Patel and Bongino "have committed to working with Congress to provide the American people the accountable and transparent FBI they deserve," and are "grateful for our interagency partners and the leadership of this administration in that pursuit."

Zoom in: Bongino acknowledged the transition from flamethrower to G-man has been jarring. "Part of you dies a little bit when you see all this stuff from behind the scenes," he said on "Fox and Friends".

  • He said a former listener told him "I miss you," and that he replied, "You know, I miss me too." He made clear he hates sitting in his FBI office all day and not being able to "swing back" at his critics.
  • "It's difficult for me to not be able to respond like I used to, but there'll be a day, there'll be a day," Bongino said. "I'll be back one day."

Tal Axelrod contributed reporting.

No one's buying vacation homes

31 May 2025 at 02:45
Data: Redfin; Chart: Axios Visuals

Demand for second homes is at its lowest in data going back to 2018, Redfin reports.

Why it matters: Vacation homes are losing their luster.


Homeownership costs have soared, and cities are cracking down on short-term rentals.

  • Plus, fewer people can work remotely from their beach house or ski chalet these days.

By the numbers: U.S. homebuyers took out around 86,600 mortgages for second homes last year, per Redfin's analysis of Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data.

  • That's down roughly 5% from a year earlier and 66% from the pandemic homebuying frenzy.

Zoom in: Demand has particularly cratered in Florida as climate-related housing costs swell.

  • Mortgages for second homes fell from the previous year in 30 of the 50 most populous metros, led by Miami (-32%), Orlando (-28%) and Fort Lauderdale (-28%).

The big picture: Home sales are sluggish overall, with many shoppers sidelined by high prices, elevated mortgage rates and economic uncertainty.

  • Second-home mortgages represented less than 3% of all mortgage originations in 2024 β€” a record low, per the real estate site.

Reality check: Even wealthy cash buyers are watching their wallets.

  • "They are much more likely to make a lowball offer or request concessions than they used to be," Florida agent Lindsay Garcia said in the report.

The intrigue: Travelers may be cooling on second homes, too.

  • Budget-conscious guests appear to be delaying or canceling stays at Airbnbs and other rentals, according to analytics firm AirDNA.

What's next: Skipped getaways, slashed wedding budgets, dropped dinner plans β€” call this the summer of strategic spending.

Before yesterdayAxios News

Trump leaves US Steel deal details up in the air, but raises steel tariffs

30 May 2025 at 15:58

President Trump spoke for more than an hour on Friday at a U.S. Steel facility in Pennsylvania, but never explicitly said if he's approved a deal whereby Japan's Nippon Steel would acquire U.S. Steel for $14.9 billion.

Why it matters: This prolongs a 16-month saga that included lawsuits, intra-union dissension, conflict between geopolitical allies, and literal shouting.


  • Trump did, however, announce plans to increase tariffs on steel imports to 50% from 25%.

Zoom in: Trump repeatedly referred to a planned "partnership" between Nippon and U.S. Steel, without explaining what that would mean.

  • Prior reporting suggests that it could mean the deal goes through, but with Nippon Steel pledging over $14 billion in new investments.
  • U.S. Steel also would have an American CEO and an American majority on its board of directors, while the U.S. government would get a so-called "golden share" that would let it prevent actions deemed to be against the country's interests.

Yes, but: It isn't yet clear how the board of a U.S. subsidiary could force Nippon to invest the money, were it to change its mind after the merger closes.

  • Steelworkers union officials had warned that an earlier agreement would have allowed the Japanese company out of its investment commitment without cause.

Catch up quick: Former president Biden blocked the merger on national security grounds, while Trump also opposed it during last year's campaign.

What he's saying: Trump told the crowd in Pennsylvania that there's "a lot of money coming your way," and confirmed the $14 billion figure.

  • Neither U.S. Steel nor Nippon Steel have issued any public statements on Friday about the merger.
  • The United Steelworkers union said in a statement that it hasn't participated in any discussions with the White House or either company, and doesn't know what the final arrangement includes.

Go deeper: Why Trump needs Pittsburgh right now

Musk in Oval Office farewell brushes off NYT report on ketamine use

30 May 2025 at 11:56

Elon Musk brushed off a New York Times report about his alleged drug use while joining the Trump campaign in a Friday press conference marking the end of the billionaire's days with the Department of Government Efficiency.

The big picture: Musk earlier this week announced his departure from the administration, ending his chainsaw-wielding tour through the federal government as the face of DOGE.


  • His reputation was bruised during his tumultuous tenure, which at times saw him clash with administration officials.
  • The Times on Friday, citing more than a dozen people who knew or worked with him, reported that Musk was allegedly taking so much ketamine β€” on top of other drugs β€” that it was affecting his bladder.
  • Musk in the past had said he was prescribed ketamine for mental health issues.

Driving the news: Asked about the report Friday, Musk railed against The New York Times "for their lies about the Russiagate hoax" and added "let's move on."

  • The Times reported that it's "unclear" if Musk used drugs while serving in the government.

Zoom out: President Trump, during an often rambling opening to the press conference, said Musk is "really not leaving" and was "going to be back and forth."

  • Musk said he would continue to visit as a "friend" and adviser to the president.

Catch up quick: Musk and DOGE set out with an audacious goal of cutting $2 trillion in federal spending.

  • That didn't happen. And the savings DOGE claims it did find have been hotly contested because the math backing up the initiatives' tallies was marred with errors.
  • But Musk on Friday maintained he still expects to achieve a trillion dollars in cuts over time.

Flashback: In a memorable February appearance, Musk joined Trump in the Oval Office to defend DOGE's cuts, saying Americans "voted for major government reform and that's what the people are going to get."

  • Since then, DOGE purged thousands of government workers and contracts β€” though Musk's legacy with DOGE remains ensnared in several ongoing lawsuits.

Go deeper: Pentagon sunsets Elon Musk's "what did you do last week" email mandate

Trump declares war on his own judicial legacy

30 May 2025 at 10:46

President Trump has gone scorched earth on the architect of his own judicial legacy, disavowing Leonard Leo, the Federalist Society and any judge who stands in the way of the MAGA agenda.

Why it matters: Trump's alliance with the conservative legal movement powered his takeover of the Republican Party, helping him win over skeptical GOP elites by promising β€” and delivering β€” a roster of judges that united the right behind his presidency.


  • Three Supreme Court justices and hundreds of judicial appointees later, Trump now claims he was naive β€” and that the federal bench he shaped is now conspiring against him.

What they're saying: "I was new to Washington, and it was suggested that I use The Federalist Society as a recommending source on Judges," Trump wrote in a furious Truth Social post Thursday night.

  • "I did so, openly and freely, but then realized that they were under the thumb of a real 'sleazebag' named Leonard Leo," he continued, claiming that the conservative legal activist "probably hates America."
  • "I am so disappointed in The Federalist Society because of the bad advice they gave me on numerous Judicial Nominations. This is something that cannot be forgotten!"

Driving the news: Trump's tirade against Leo was set off by a ruling from the U.S. Court of International Trade β€” currently on pause β€” that found he overstepped his authority to impose sweeping global tariffs.

  • One of the three judges on the low-profile trade court was appointed by Trump in 2017 and has ties to the Federalist Society.
  • "Where do these initial three Judges come from? How is it possible for them to have potentially done such damage to the United States of America? Is it purely a hatred of 'TRUMP?'" the president wrote.
  • It's the latest example of Trump and his aides claiming a "judicial coup" is threatening democracy by reining in his executive authority.

Flashback: Few figures shaped Trump's first-term legacy more profoundly than Leo, whose guidance helped stock the federal bench with conservative judges for a generation.

  • "We're going to have great judges, conservative, all picked by the Federalist Society," Trump promised during his first campaign in March 2016.
  • All three of Trump's Supreme Court justice nominees β€” Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett β€” came from a list personally curated by Leo, according to NPR.

Between the lines: The wildly effective conservative alliance ultimately couldn't survive MAGA's bedrock principle: absolute loyalty to Trump, a condition that has doomed countless GOP relationships.

  • For Trump, the notion of judicial independence from his personal and political goals is a sign not of a healthy constitutional republic β€” but of betrayal by allies who owe their power to him.

The other side: "I'm very grateful for President Trump transforming the Federal Courts, and it was a privilege being involved," Leo told Axios in a statement.

  • "There's more work to be done, for sure, but the Federal Judiciary is better than it's ever been in modern history, and that will be President Trump's most important legacy."

What to watch: Trump's nomination of his former defense attorney Emil Bove to be a federal appeals judge is a sign of what his judicial picks could look like going forward.

  • "We're not going to be using the Federalist Society to make judicial nominations at all going forward," White House official Stephen Miller told CNN, condemning "rogue judges" and bad vetting.

The bottom line: Trump is taking no prisoners in his assault on the federal judiciary, accusing any judge who stalls his agenda β€” even the ones he appointed β€” of siding with "the radical left."

  • But that doesn't mean he won't treat favorable rulings β€”Β such as the Supreme Court's immunity ruling that helped keep him out of prison last summer β€” as total vindication.

Supreme Court allows Trump to end legal protections for 500,000 immigrants

30 May 2025 at 07:48

The Trump administration can for now end a program that gave temporary protections to more than 500,000 immigrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela, the Supreme Court said Friday."

The big picture: In a strongly worded dissent, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson wrote that the high court "plainly botched" its assessment and undervalued the "devastating consequences of allowing the Government to precipitously upend the lives and livelihoods of nearly half a million noncitizens" amid pending legal claims.


Catch up quick: A federal judge in April temporarily blocked the Trump administration from revoking the Biden-era protections under the under the CHNV program.

  • The parole programs had granted the immigrants temporary legal protections after they fled violence in their home countries.
  • In a January order, Trump instructed the Department of Homeland Security to "[t]erminate all categorical parole programs" that he said were "contrary to the policies of the United States" established in his orders, including CHNV.

Driving the news: The order from the court noted that Jackson and Justice Sonia Sotomayor dissented from granting the application for a stay on the lower court's order.

  • Jackson argued the government failed to satisfy its burden of demonstrating harm, saying ending the program will have "devastating consequences. "
  • "While it is apparent that the Government seeks a stay to enable it to inflict maximum predecision damage, court-ordered stays exist to minimizeβ€”not maximizeβ€”harm to litigating parties," she wrote.

Friction point: Solicitor general D. John Sauer argued in his request to the Supreme Court that Immigration and Nationality Act grants Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem authority to revoke parole and that District Judge Indira Talwani overstepped in her order.

  • Talwani wrote in her April order that terminating legal status early for noncitizens who complied with DHS programs and lawfully entered the country without any case-by-case justification "undermines the rule of law."

Flashback: Under former DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, the program allowed migrants to fly into the U.S. if they had a sponsor and passed security checks.

  • Those who entered through the program could stay for up to two years.

Zoom out: Earlier this month, the court allowed the Trump administration to strip deportation protections from some 350,000 Venezuelan immigrants.

Go deeper: Trump admin asks Supreme Court to restart South Sudan deportations

How the GOP megabill may roll back the Affordable Care Act

30 May 2025 at 06:33

The massive Republican budget bill working its way through Congress has mostly drawn attention for its tax cuts and Medicaid changes.

  • But it would also take steps to significantly roll back coverage under the Affordable Care Act, with echoes of the 2017 repeal-replace debate.

Why it matters: The bill that passed the House before Memorial Day includes an overhaul of ACA marketplaces that would result in coverage losses for millions of Americans and savings to help cover the cost of extending President Trump's tax cuts.


  • It comes after a growth spurt that saw ACA marketplace enrollment reach new highs, with more than 24 million people enrolling for 2025, according to KFF. The House's changes would likely reverse that trend, unless the Senate goes in a different direction when it picks up the bill next week.

Driving the news: The changes are not as sweeping as the 2017 effort at repealing the law, but many of them erect barriers to enrollment that supporters say are aimed at fighting fraud.

  • Brian Blase, president of Paragon Health Institute and a health official in Trump's first administration, said Republicans are focusing on rolling back Biden-era expansions "that have led to massive fraud and inefficiency."
  • The CBO estimates the ACA marketplace-related provisions would lead to about 3 million more people becoming uninsured.
  • Cynthia Cox, a vice president at KFF, said while the changes "sound very technical" in nature, taken together "the implications are that it will be much harder for people to sign up for ACA marketplace plans."

What's inside: The bill would end automatic reenrollment in ACA plans for people getting subsidies, instead requiring them to proactively reenroll and resubmit information on their incomes for verification.

  • It would also prevent enrollees from provisionally receiving ACA subsidies in instances where extra eligibility checks are needed, which can take months.
  • If people wound up making more income than they had estimated for a given year, the bill removes the cap on the amount of ACA subsidies they would have to repay to the government.
  • Some legal immigrants would also be cut off from ACA subsidies, including people granted asylum and those in their five-year waiting period to be eligible for Medicaid.

What they're saying: In a letter to Congress, patient groups pointed to the various barriers as "unprecedented and onerous requirements to access health coverage" that would have "a devastating impact on people's ability to access and afford private insurance coverage."

  • The letter was signed by groups including the American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network, American Diabetes Association and American Lung Association.

Between the lines: A last-minute addition to the bill would also make a technical but important change that increases government payments to insurers in ACA marketplaces.

  • That would have the effect of reducing the subsidies that help people afford premiums and save the government money, by reducing the benchmark silver premiums that are used to set the subsidy amounts.
  • Democrats are concerned that if Congress also allows enhanced ACA subsidies to expire at the end of this year, the combined effect would be even higher premium increases for enrollees next year.

Insurers that already are planning their premium rates for next year say the Republican funding changes are throwing uncertainty into the mix.

  • "Disruption in the individual market could also result in much higher premiums," the trade group AHIP warned in a statement on the bill.

The big picture: Blase said changes like ending automatic reenrollment are needed to increase checks that ensure people are not claiming higher subsidies than they're entitled to.

  • "I think what happened during the Biden years led to massive fraud and improper spending, and that needs to be rolled back," he said.
  • Cox said another way to address fraud would be to target shady insurance brokers, rather than enrollees themselves. She estimated that marketplace enrollment could fall by roughly one third from all the changes together.
  • "The justification for many of these provisions is to address fraud," she said. "The question is, how many people who are legitimately signed up are going to get lost in that process?"

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