President Trump's political operation has been fielding calls from Republicans interested in waging a primary challenge to Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, according to a person familiar with the talks.

Why it matters: The conversations are evidence that Trump — and his $500 million political apparatus — is actively entertaining the best way to back a primary opponent against Massie, who has drawn Trump's ire for voting against his "one big, beautiful bill."

• "Massie is about to be in the fight of his life," said Kentucky-based GOP strategist Jake Cox. "Just wait until he sees the money a Trump-backed candidate can raise simply from the President saying their name into a camera or opening up his email list."
• Two possible primary challengers being mentioned in Kentucky Republican circles are state Sen. Aaron Reed and state Rep. Kimberly Moser.
• A statewide Kentucky GOP official tells Axios: "Massie has had weak primary opponents in previous cycles and made mincemeat of them, but I think this time is different. Supporting Trump is the No. 1 — and sometimes the only — issue in GOP primaries at the moment."

What they're saying: Trump has privately wondered what the point is of having a Republican in Massie's seat if "they're going to vote with Democrats and trash Republicans all the time."

• Trump's anger boiled on Tuesday, when he told reporters in the Capitol that the congressman should be "voted out of office."
• The president's political lieutenants piled on. "Some guys just prefer to be in the minority," White House deputy chief of staff James Blair said of Massie on X.
• When asked during a Thursday briefing whether Trump believed — as well as Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio), who also voted "no" — should be primaried, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt responded: "I believe he does and I believe he does not like to see grandstanders in Congress."

The background: Massie and Trump have clashed for years.

• In 2019, Massie joined House Democrats in opposing Trump's declaration of a national emergency at the southern border.
• After Massie opposed a COVID relief package in 2020, Trump called on the congressman to be thrown "out of the Republican Party."
• Massie was one of six House Republicans to endorse Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Trump during the 2024 Republican presidential primary.
• After Massie opposed a Trump-backed government spending bill in March, Trump wrote on Truth Social that the congressman was a "GRANDSTANDER."

Behind the scenes: During the transition, Trump privately asked DeSantis for advice on how to deal with Massie.

• "Give him raw milk," DeSantis said, referring to one of Massie's legislative priorities, according to a person briefed on the conversation.

The other side: Massie told Axios he was skeptical Trump allies would find a strong candidate to run against him.

• Massie noted he had easily fended off primary challenges in the last three elections and said his private polling showed him popular in his conservative central Kentucky district.
• "If somebody got in this race and they were a reasonable person, not crazy to run against me, I would call them up and say: 'You know what you should do before you dedicate the next year and a half of your life to getting your a** kicked? You should do a poll,'" Massie said.
• Massie also said Trump's attacks on him were helping him fundraise, pointing out he had raised $47,000 this week and had a series of donor events lined up in California next week.
• The congressman's allies say his independent streak endears him to voters.

The intrigue: Massie said he spoke to Trump a few weeks before the election and a few weeks after, but not since. After Massie's mother passed away in June 2024, Trump left him a voicemail expressing his condolences, Massie said.

• During the call after the election, Massie told Trump he would be interested in serving as his agriculture secretary, an idea Trump passed on.
• "I would have taken it," Massie said.

Some younger House Democrats are preparing to push for a long-delayed, caucus-wide intervention on age after the tragic passing of yet another one of their septuagenarian colleagues, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: The impacts of the party's aging membership were keenly felt Thursday when House Republicans passed their sweeping tax cut bill by just a single vote, 215 to 214.

• Several House Democrats argued that vacancies created by the deaths of Reps. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) and Sylvester Turner (D-Texas), all in their 70s, may have been outcome-determinative.
• "You see where we are, we can't afford to lose anymore members. ... We're down three people because they passed away," one lawmaker told Axios just off the floor as the House was voting on the bill.
• Said another ahead of the vote: "The tragic reality is, when ... this vote passes and the difference is the number of members who passed away this Congress, I think it's going to really infuriate many of our supporters."

By the numbers: The eight members of Congress who have died in office since November 2022 were all Democrats, with an average age of 75.

• A half dozen of those deaths were just in the 13 months since last April.
• Grijalva's seat won't be filled until a special election is held in late September. Texas' Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has scheduled the election for Turner's seat on Nov. 4, to the fury of Democrats.
• Some Democrats fear Virginia's Republican governor may similarly drag his feet on scheduling a contest to replace Connolly.

Between the lines: Of the House's 10 oldest members, seven are Democrats, Axios' April Rubin reported.

• "Some folks have given their life to this place, and we're so grateful and commend them for it — you don't have to die in this place," the first House Democrat said.
• "I definitely think that someone in leadership needs to have some hard conversations and say … 'you don't [have to] keep doing this.'"

State of play: In interviews with a dozen House Democrats on Wednesday and Thursday, many said the time for those difficult discussions has come.

• Most spoke on the condition of anonymity to offer candid thoughts about a highly sensitive topic without facing backlash from their colleagues.
• "This is something that Democrats come up to me [and ask about] all the time, everywhere I go, like, 'You guys need a fresh face. A fresh message and a fresh face,'" said a third House Democrat.
• A fourth told Axios it's nothing personal to older members, but "the people don't own the seats, and we just look so f**king out of touch."
• "I think this could force a conversation," a fifth House Democrat said of Connolly's passing on Wednesday.

What to watch: It is not yet clear what reforms younger Democrats will pursue, though several floated a renewed push for committee leadership term limits as a way to incentivize older members to retire.

• Republicans "don't have seniority over there. We do. That could be something that gets discussed," the fifth House Democrat said.
• "The incentives, on our side, cause people to be here a long time," said a sixth lawmaker. "There's a conversation to be had there."
• A seventh told Axios that when committee term limits were instituted in their state legislature, "I think it ended up being for the better. ... It was exciting to be on a team where it felt like everyone had an equitable shot."

The intrigue: Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.), Democrats' long-suffering champion of committee term limits, said he is handing off the baton as he nears 70 in an attempt to lead by example.

• "I've passed the torch to the next generation. It was a little bit ironic that it was a couple of boomers arguing for generational change," the 69-year-old, who was first elected to Congress in 2008, told Axios.
• The fourth House Democrat who spoke anonymously said there are "a bunch of us" planning to make that push — but that "it can't happen right now" in the immediate wake of Connolly's death.

Yes, but: House Democrats' older members aren't about to concede anything.

• More than half of the 30 House Democrats over 75 years old are running again, and many attest to their vigorous health. A sizable portion of them are facing or are expected to face primary challenges.
• Reps. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.), 70, and Kweisi Mfume (D-Md.), 76, have expressed interest in running to replace Connolly as the ranking member of the House Oversight Committee.
• They may face 47-year-old Robert Garcia (D-Calif.), a member of House Democratic leadership who could try to use his strong relationships with colleagues to overcome his relative lack of seniority.

The bottom line: That this issue is bubbling up to the surface amid new revelations about President Biden's health only gives it more urgency, lawmakers said.

• "It's important. It's just more symbolically important. We've got Joe Biden hanging over here ... like a huge albatross," said the third House Democrat.
• "Then you add to this that the face of Congress just seems older. ... People keep hearing about all these older people who we have here and are like, 'Wait, what?'"

The Trump administration pulled Harvard University's ability to enroll international students, the Department of Homeland Security announced Thursday.

The big picture: Harvard has been at the center of the administration's war on universities over alleged antisemitism on campus and diversity, equity and inclusion practices.

Driving the news: Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem ordered DHS to terminate Harvard's student and exchange visitor program certification, the agency said.

• "This means Harvard can no longer enroll foreign students and existing foreign students must transfer or lose their legal status," per DHS.
• Noem said the administration is "holding Harvard accountable for fostering violence, antisemitism, and coordinating with the Chinese Communist Party on its campus."
• She said in a statement that the university lost their program certification "as a result of the failure to adhere to the law," calling it "a warning to all universities and academic institutions across the country."

What they're saying: Harvard spokesperson Jason Newton called the government's action unlawful.

• "We are fully committed to maintaining Harvard's ability to host international students and scholars, who hail from more than 140 countries and enrich the University – and this nation – immeasurably," he said in an emailed statement.
• He said the university is working quickly to provide guidance to the campus community.
• "This retaliatory action threatens serious harm to the Harvard community and our country, and undermines Harvard's academic and research mission," Newton said.

Context: The administration has for months been discussing plans to try to block certain colleges from having any foreign students if it decides too many are "pro-Hamas," Axios reported.

• The idea of prohibiting colleges from enrolling any student visa-holders grew out of Secretary of State Marco Rubio's "Catch and Revoke" program, which now is focusing on students who protested against the war in Gaza.

Editor's note: This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

More from Axios:

• Exclusive: Trump's "pro-Hamas" purge could block foreign students from colleges
• Trump admin cancels additional grants to Harvard
• Trump admin to halt new grant funding to Harvard

The president planned to host a highly anticipated "exclusive" dinner for the largest holders of his meme coin, Official Trump, at his golf club in Virginia on Thursday night.

Why it matters: Fight Fight Fight, LLC — a company linked to President Trump's family — sold a digital token that gave anyone in the world a chance to pay for a night of access to the commander-in-chief.

• The promotion has stunned ethics experts. One Democrat called it "the biggest corruption scandal in the history of the White House."
• White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt denied any conflicts of interest but refused to release the list of attendees, telling reporters: "The president is attending it in his personal time. It is not a White House dinner."

Between the lines: Wealthy donors have long used campaign contributions to gain access to elected officials — but with key guardrails and oversight.

• U.S. law bars foreign money and prohibits politicians from using campaign funds for personal gain.

What they're saying: "We've never had a president actually try to raise money and get people to buy an interest in a venture of his at the same time that he's sitting in the White House," Richard Painter, President George W. Bush's ethics lawyer, told Politico.

• Democrats have proposed at least five bills that would block activity like this, but none of them are likely to see action in a GOP-controlled Congress.
• As Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D.-NY) points out, there are already laws against this kind of thing — but enforcement of those rules is murky, especially with Trump loyalists in charge.

By the numbers: Inca Digital, a data intelligence firm, estimates that the top 220 holders collectively spent more than $140 million to ensure they got a spot in the meme coin celebration.

• The most spent was $16.4 million.
• The contest was announced on April 23 and ran through May 12. To qualify to attend, a wallet owner had to register with Fight Fight Fight, pass a background check, and hold a high enough average amount of Official Trump over the contest period.
• The token had lost considerable value since its pre-inauguration release, but it's up more than 50% since the dinner was announced.

Between the lines: That price increase has held even after the contest ended, suggesting that holders might expect more perks or access ahead.

The intrigue: Only a few attendees were known ahead of time. Crypto billionaire Justin Sun, who at one point was under investigation by the SEC, is probably the best known.

• Kain Warwick, an Australian crypto investor and creator of the decentralized finance platform, Synthetix, told the New York Times that he had a spot.
• So did the meme coin startup MemeCore, which acquired a massive stockpile in order to send someone to the event.

How it works: Other buyers haven't been publicizing their attendance, but blockchain analysis suggested that much of the buying was happening outside the U.S., according to an analysis by Bloomberg.

What we're watching: Fight Fight Fight still controls 80% of the supply of Official Trump, which it can sell off over time.

A man was charged with two counts of first-degree murder on Thursday in relation to the fatal shooting of two people outside the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, D.C., according to a criminal complaint.

The big picture: Elias Rodriguez of Chicago is also facing federal charges that include murder of foreign officials, causing the death of a person through the use of a firearm, and discharge of a firearm during a crime.

Driving the news: The killings of Yaron Lischinsky and Sarah Lynn Milgrim are being investigated as a hate crime and a crime of terrorism, Jeanine Pirro, interim U.S. attorney in Washington, said during a press conference Thursday.

• Pirro called it "a death penalty-eligible case" but said it's "far too early" to determine whether prosecutors will pursue it.
• Authorities are executing search warrants for Rodriguez' electronic devices, reviewing his social media accounts and all of his internet postings, FBI officials said during the briefing.

Zoom in: Rodriguez allegedly told an officer at the scene of the shooting that he "did it" and that he was unarmed, according to an affidavit from an FBI agent.

• The affidavit states that the suspect was captured on security video firing a weapon several times at the two victims before getting closer and "firing several more times."
• One of the victims attempted to crawl away but the suspect followed behind her and fired again, per the affidavit.
• A 9-millimeter handgun was recovered from the scene, the affidavit says.

Context: Rodriguez was arrested Wednesday after being apprehended by a museum security guard minutes after the shooting.

• He is believed to have acted alone, police said.

Editor's note: This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be above normal, NOAA meteorologists said Thursday in their annual forecast.

Why it matters: The outlook comes as the Trump administration explores downsizing or dismantling FEMA, the federal agency tasked with responding to storms and other natural disasters.

The big picture: This year is likely to have 13 to 19 named storms, with three to five of those being Category 3 hurricanes or stronger, according to National Weather Service director Ken Graham.

• This season isn't expected to be as active as last year's, he said, but it only takes one takes one storm to hit where you live.
• Colorado State University's forecast last month lines up with NOAA's — "above-normal" activity with 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

Zoom in: In response to questions about staffing cuts, Graham and acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm told reporters Thursday they are confident in their forecasting ability for the season.

• Graham also told Axios that NWS this year is seeing the same level of interest in weather briefings from their federal partners, including FEMA, as compared to last year, despite those cutbacks.
• "We are fully staffed at the Hurricane Center, and we definitely are ready to go," Grimm said.

Zoom out: Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center, is slated to give his annual congressional briefing Thursday afternoon about hurricane season preparedness.

Meanwhile, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem earlier this week reiterated the administration's priority to shift FEMA's responsibilities to states.

• "Our goal is that states should manage their emergencies and we come in and support them," she said at Tuesday's meeting to reform FEMA, according to Reuters.
• President Trump — whose budget proposes more than $646 million in cuts to FEMA — has signed executive orders aimed at streamlining the federal disaster agency and shifting more responsibility to the states, Axios' Natalie Daher writes. Fully eliminating FEMA would require an act of Congress.
• Other staffing cuts and changes being made to NOAA and its agencies, including the NWS, are raising concerns about reduced forecasting abilities.

Between the lines: David Richardson, the current acting head of FEMA as of earlier this month, has no experience managing natural disasters and acknowledged in private meetings that the agency doesn't yet have a fully formed hurricane response plan, the Wall Street Journal reported.

• "As FEMA transforms to a smaller footprint, the intent for this hurricane season is not well understood," warned an internal review obtained by CNN last week. "Thus FEMA is not ready."
• Since that leak, FEMA appears to be taking steps to bolster its disaster response efforts, according to CNN.

Threat level: Louisiana, Texas and Florida could face the greatest financial burdens in a world with less federal relief assistance, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick writes, based on new analysis from the Carnegie Disaster Dollar Database.

• Louisiana residents also have received the most FEMA direct assistance since 2015, according to Carnegie.
• Louisiana's congressional delegation expressed concern earlier this month to Axios about the federal government's ability to respond to a large-scale disaster.

The intrigue: NOAA's leadership gave the forecast in Gretna, a suburb of New Orleans, in recognition of the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's devastation in the region.

How it works: Atlantic hurricane season officially starts June 1, but storms can form any time.

• NHC began its daily tropical outlook May 15, and so far all has been quiet in the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic.
• Historically, the most active period for strong storms in the Gulf and the Atlantic is August and September.

What's next: Authorities urge residents to prepare now for the season by gathering emergency supplies, preparing their home for storms and making an evacuation plan.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional information.

Go deeper:

• These states would suffer the most without FEMA
• Trump's FEMA risks "flying blind" into hurricane season
• Contraflow is dying as a New Orleans hurricane evacuation option

The Supreme Court issued a stay Thursday allowing President Trump's removal of two independent agency heads to remain in force for now — but suggested Federal Reserve officials have special protection based on the central bank's unique structure.

Why it matters: The ruling suggests that the court will ultimately vest the president with significant authority to remove the heads of agencies, even when Congress has structured them to be insulated from politics.

• But the decision's carve-out for the Fed will come as a significant relief to markets that were concerned about the central bank's independence.

Catch up quick: The court issued a stay Thursday night in a case involving Trump's move to fire members of the National Labor Relations Board and Merit Systems Protection Board.

• "The stay reflects our judgment that the Government is likely to show that both the NLRB and MSPB exercise considerable executive power," and that therefore it is within the executive authority of the president to remove them, the court's majority wrote.
• But is is not a final decision. The question of whether the NLRB and MSPB appointments fall under certain exceptions "is better left for resolution after full briefing and argument."
• The order was unsigned, and the three liberal justices dissented, arguing that a stay should be granted.

The intrigue: In issuing the stay, the majority noted a claim by the fired members that their case could have implications for the president's ability to remove members of the Fed's Board of Governors or Open Market Committee.

What they're saying: "We disagree. The Federal Reserve is a uniquely structured, quasi-private entity that follows in the distinct historical tradition of the First and Second Banks of the United States," the majority wrote.

Yes, but: A dissent by Justice Elena Kagan seemed impatient with the logic of the Fed carve-out.

• "The majority closes today's order by stating, out of the blue, that it has no bearing on" removal of Fed officials.
• "I am glad to hear it," Kagan writes, "and do not doubt the majority's intention to avoid imperiling the Fed."
• "But then, today's order poses a puzzle. For the Federal Reserve's independence rests on the same constitutional and analytic foundations as that of the NLRB, MSPB, FTC, FCC, and so on—which is to say it rests largely on" Humphrey's Executor, a 1935 case establishing the constitutionality of independent agencies.

Between the lines: From the moment Trump started removing agency commissioners earlier this year, analysts predicted the ultimate target might be more control over the Fed.

• But some hoped past court comments about the central bank as a unique entity might insulate it from such action.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with new details throughout.

The Republican-led House Oversight Committee on Thursday took its first step in its new investigation of the White House's handling of former President Biden's health: Demanding testimony from his doctor and his top advisors.

Why it matters: The probe comes amid a renewed focus on Biden's age and fitness for office after his cancer diagnosis and the release of "Original Sin," a new book by Alex Thompson and Jake Tapper.

• Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) said Wednesday he will launch a parallel investigation into Biden's health, Axios' Stef Kight first reported.

Driving the news: House Oversight Committee chair James Comer (R-Ky.) sent letters to Biden's personal physician, Kevin O'Connor, and former White House officials Neera Tanden, Anthony Bernal, Annie Tomasini and Ashley Williams seeking testimony.

• In the letter to O'Connor, Comer cited his February 2024 assessment that Biden was "robust" and "fit to successfully execute the duties of the Presidency," as well as Axios reporting about Biden's cognitive struggles.
• "The Committee seeks information to ensure accurate information was provided to the American people and your health reports were not subject to any improper influence," Comer wrote.
• In letters to aides, Comer questioned "who made key decisions and exercised the powers of the executive branch during the Biden Administration."

Between the lines: Republicans have tried to make Biden's age a fruitful area of inquiry since 2023, but they see the flurry of events around Biden in recent weeks as providing a new opening.

• Comer previously sought testimony from Bernal, Tomasini and Williams in October 2023, though his requests to O'Connor and Tanden, the former director of Biden's Domestic Policy Council, are new.
• Comer also fought for the release of the audio of Special Counsel Robert Hur's interview with Biden after the publication of his report last year.

What to watch: Comer said he is seeking responses by May 29 and testimony scheduled between June 2 and 25.

• A spokesperson for Biden declined to comment.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional reporting.

Iran threatened on Thursday to move its nuclear material to undeclared sites to protect it from a potential Israeli military strike.

Why it matters: The threat, made in an official letter from Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to the UN secretary-general and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director-general, signal the risk of an unprecedented escalation in the Iranian nuclear crisis.

• The IAEA is currently able to access and monitor Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles, which are stored in declared sites.
• If that material is moved, it will be much harder to know whether Iran is building a nuclear weapon or not.

Driving the news: The threat comes after CNN and Axios reported that Israel has been making preparations to swiftly strike Iran's nuclear sites if U.S.-Iran nuclear talks break down in the coming weeks.

• One source told Axios that Israel believes its operational window for a successful strike could close soon.

What they are saying: "Under conditions wherein threats made by the Zionist fanatics persist, the Islamic Republic of Iran shall be left with no recourse but to implement special measures for the protection of its nuclear facilities and materials, the relevant particulars of which shall thereafter be communicated to the IAEA," Araghchi wrote.

Driving the news: Araghchi and White House envoy Steve Witkoff will hold a fifth round of nuclear talks in Rome on Friday, with Oman's foreign minister mediating.

• The negotiations have hit a roadblock over the fact that Iran says it will only sign a deal that allows a domestic enrichment capability, and the U.S. has said enrichment is its red line.
• Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and the director of Israel's Mossad spy agency David Barnea will meet Witkoff in Rome on Friday on the sidelines of the nuclear talks, two Israeli officials said.
• The officials said Dermer and Barnea are traveling to Rome to coordinate positions with Witkoff and be briefed immediataely after the talks.

State of play: The Israeli intelligence community has shifted just in the past few days from believing a nuclear deal was close to thinking talks could soon break down, Israeli sources say.

• Hence the urgency behind Israel's preparations to strike fast if President Trump gives a green light.
• A U.S. official told Axios the Trump administration is concerned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might make his move even without approval from Trump.
• Trump spoke to Netanyahu on Thursday and they "agreed on the need to ensure that Iran does not obtain nuclear weapons," per the Israeli readout.

The other side: Araghchi wrote in his letter that Iran "will take all necessary measures to protect and defend its citizens, interests, and facilities against any terrorist or sabotage actions."

• "Iran strongly warns against any adventurism by the Israeli Zionist regime and will respond decisively to any threats or unlawful actions by this regime. We also believe that if any attack is carried out against the nuclear facilities of the Islamic Republic of Iran by the Israeli regime, the U.S. government will be complicit and bear legal responsibility," the Iranian foreign minister wrote.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune warned President Vladimir Putin on Thursday that if he does not "make a serious proposal for an immediate ceasefire" with Ukraine, the Senate will pass new sanctions against the Russian government.

Why it matters: Thune (R-S.D.) is increasing pressure on Putin by signaling the Senate is willing to act on a bipartisan bill that would authorize new Russian sanctions and tariffs.

• "If Russia is not willing to engage in serious diplomacy, the Senate will work with the Trump administration to consider additional sanctions to force Putin to start negotiating," Thune said Thursday.
• This comes the same week Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned senators in a hearing that if "you start threatening sanctions, the Russians will stop talking."
• "I think it's a next week horizon," Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) told Axios about the timing of a sanctions bill. "We need to make it very clear to Vladimir Putin that we're going to increase the pressure on Russia to get them to the table to resolve the war in Ukraine.

Zoom in: Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) have a bill, with 80 cosponsors, that would hit Russia with more economic sanctions if Putin refuses good faith negotiations with Ukraine or launches another attack after any peace deal is reached.

• The bill also would set a 500% tariff on goods imported from countries that buy Russian oil.

Zoom out: Thune has previously indicating he was ready to move, but would wait for the signal from the White House.

• Some Republican senators have been urging more immediate action against Putin.
• "I've waited long enough," Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) told Semafor's Burgess Everett, adding, "And it's pretty clear to me that Putin has been jerking us around for months."

President Trump's Make America Healthy Again Commission blamed factors including bad diets, chemical exposure and unnecessary medication for causing childhood chronic illness in a highly anticipated report released Thursday.

Why it matters: The 68-page document from a panel led by HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. seeks to lay out a unifying theory around what's causing conditions like obesity, autoimmune conditions and behavioral disorders in kids.

• But it was developed in little more than three months and seeks to strike a balance between protecting consumers and promoting economic interests, especially when it comes to pesticides and chemicals commonly used in agriculture.
• "This is not, in any way, an attack on the American farmers or industry," NIH director Jay Bhattacharya, a member of the commission, told reporters Thursday. "What this is is a commitment to get excellent answers, excellent science, so that we can enable people to do the right thing."

The big picture: As with Kennedy's broader health care philosophy, the report blends mainstream ideas with highly controversial elements, including doubts about the current childhood vaccine schedule.

Here are the key takeaways:

1. Ultra-processed foods. The commission, in the first and longest section, acknowledges that popular snacks and beverages save Americans time and money, but cites research that suggests ultra-processed foods are linked to chronic diseases and says children need more "whole foods."

• "I think everybody wants to prioritize the ultra-processed food crisis and try to reduce our reliance on ultra-processed foods and try to improve the quality of the food," Kennedy said on Thursday.

2. Chemical exposures. Potential toxins in the environment are a big concern, but the Trump administration is treading lightly.

• Farm groups worried ahead of the report's release that it would target pesticides like glyphosate, which are widely used in agriculture.
• "American farmers rely on these products, and actions that further regulate or restrict crop protection tools beyond risk-based and scientific processes set forth by Congress must involve thoughtful consideration of what is necessary for adequate protection, alternatives, and cost of production," the report states.

3. More "gold-standard science." The report also portrays research on chemical exposure and chronic disease as a necessary competitive advantage for the U.S.

• Understanding potential links between chemical exposure and chronic illness "cannot happen through a European regulatory system that stifles growth," the report says. Rather, it should happen through science done by the federal government and "through unleashing private sector innovation."

4. Overuse of medicine. The commission calls out kids' "overmedicalization" — and continues to cast doubt on childhood vaccines.

• It cites a 1,400% increase in antidepressant prescriptions for American adolescents between 1987 and 2014, as well as increased prescribing of stimulants, antibiotics and asthma drugs.
• Long-term research on the impact of commonly used drugs for kids is limited, but there are "contributory human data that raise important questions" about antidepressants, stimulants and other treatments, the report says.
• The commission also questions the current U.S. childhood vaccine protocol and says vaccines would benefit from "more rigorous clinical trial designs." Vaccines are already studied in large trials and subject to ongoing safety surveillance.

5. Corporate influence. The role of corporate interests features prominently in the report, despite assurances that it's not anti-industry.

• Misaligned incentives in federal regulations and significant scientific funding from food, pharmaceutical, tech and chemical companies contribute to the rise of chronic disease, the report claims.

Zoom in: The secretaries of agriculture, education and housing, as well as the administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency and other federal officials, sit on the 14-member commission.

• White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller is a member, along with Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought, who co-authored the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025.

What's next: The commission now has about 80 days to create a strategy for how the federal government should respond, per Trump's original February order.

• Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said that updated dietary guidelines will likely be released before this fall.
• "What you're going to see is a whole new day on dietary guidelines where federal nutrition advice will be sound. It will be simple, and it will be clear," Rollins said.

Around the world, investors are sending a clear-as-glass signal: After years of profligate debt issuance, the world's major economies are now facing the bill.

The big picture: A sell-off in bond markets over recent weeks is signaling that the long-term trajectory for interest rates is higher than it has been in decades. The drop in long-term bond prices means a rise in the interest rates governments must pay to borrow money.

• The anticipated multitrillion-dollar widening of U.S. deficits due to the tax cut and spending legislation that passed the House early Thursday morning is part of the story, as is the Moody's downgrade of the U.S. government's credit rating last week.
• But it's really a bigger, global phenomenon — suggesting a step-shift in what savers demand to tie up their money in the long term across major advanced economies.

Driving the news: The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield touched 5.13% at one point Thursday morning, the highest since 2007. On Wednesday, an auction of 20-year bonds showed surprisingly soft demand.

• In Japan, with the highest ratio on Earth of debt to the size of its economy, long-term bond yields have hit new all-time highs this week. The nation's 40-year bonds were yielding 3.69% Thursday, up more than a percentage point from early April.
• Long-term rates in the U.K., Canada and Europe have similarly marched upward, if less dramatically.

State of play: Moves in shorter-term bonds have been more modest, meaning what has changed is not investors' near-term expectations for the economy, inflation, and monetary policy, but rather the riskiness of locking their money in at low rates.

• In general, a steeper yield curve — higher long-term rates than short-term rates — implies a stronger growth outlook. But there are reasons to think something else is afoot.
• In a volatile world economy — one in which globalization marches backward or other negative supply shocks arrive — central banks might need to crank rates higher in the coming decades to keep inflation from taking off.
• Moreover, investors worry there will be more government debt issuance in the coming decades than savings to absorb that debt.

What they're saying: "This rise has taken place not for virtuous reasons around faster growth but rather because of risks around higher inflation and the need for higher interest rates to compensate for holding long-dated dollar-denominated assets," wrote Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, in a note.

• "The risks and opportunities around holding such debt are part of the explanation," he added. "A structural change is taking place in the market, forcing a general repricing of risk."

The long-term bond sell-off has serious implications for both ordinary American borrowers and the nation's long-term fiscal picture.

Zoom out: Because rates on Treasury securities form the bedrock costs for all other forms of borrowing, these higher costs will eventually show up in the form of more expensive mortgages and car loans.

• The good news is that those forms of lending are anchored to shorter-duration rates. Even if you take out a 30-year mortgage, for example, lenders know it will likely be paid off long before that as you move or refinance.
• And shorter-duration rates aren't up much.

Yes, but: If bond investors are correct about the long-term trajectory of rates, there will be higher borrowing costs and more lending activity crowded out by the government in the years and decades ahead.

Zoom in: If the higher long-term rates hold, it implies meaningfully higher debt service costs for the U.S. government's existing debt pile. That could squeeze the government's ability to pay for other priorities, whether national defense or maintaining the social safety net.

The bottom line: "Everybody I have talked to in financial markets, they are staring at the [big, beautiful] bill and they thought it was going to be much more in terms of fiscal restraint," Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said Thursday morning on Fox Business.

• "The markets are looking for a little more fiscal discipline," Waller said. "They are concerned."

A federal judge on Thursday blocked the Trump administration from dismantling the Department of Education while a lawsuit challenging the move proceeds.

Why it matters: The judge's preliminary injunction said that President Trump and Education Secretary Linda McMahon don't have the power to shutter the agency — and that its closure runs contrary to federal laws.

• U.S. District Judge Myong J. Joun of Massachusetts also ordered the administration to reinstate the jobs of terminated Education Department employees.
• "Defendants have not pointed to any case that indicates that the Secretary's effective dismantling of the Department is within her reorganization powers," Joun wrote.
• The Trump administration will challenge Joun's ruling "on an emergency basis," Education Department spokesperson Madi Biedermann said in a statement.

Zoom in: The judge said the administration didn't provide research to support why certain employees were terminated, why certain offices were reduced or eliminated, or how those changes further the "purported goals of efficiency or effectiveness of the Department."

• He added that students with disabilities would be particularly harmed by reductions at the agency.

The other side: "President Trump and the Senate-confirmed Secretary of Education clearly have the authority to make decisions about agency reorganization efforts, not an unelected Judge with a political axe to grind," Biedermann said.

• She said Joun "dramatically overstepped his authority."

Catch up quick: Trump in March signed an executive order to dismantle the Education Department, but shuttering a federal department requires congressional action.

• Also in March, nearly 50% of the department's workforce was slashed.

Go deeper: Education Department cuts threaten to deepen local schools' woes

Editor's note: This story has been updated with details throughout and an Education Department statement.

The upper bound of "middle class" in America is often pegged at an annual income of between $150,000 and $250,000, but looking at legislation being drawn up by Republicans in Congress, it seems to be much, much higher.

Why it matters: Some of the proposals for the forthcoming budget raise income cutoff levels to as high as $2.5 million per year.

Driving the news: The House is considering allowing state and local tax deductions of as much as $40,000 for people making up to $500,000, Axios' Hans Nichols reported this week, a sign that some blue-state Republicans consider $500,000 to be a middle-class income.

Between the lines: President Trump considers an annual income of $1 million too modest to justify higher income taxes, per Nichols, but is fine with the idea once household income reaches $2.5 million.

• The current incarnation of the bill also raises the level at which the estate tax starts being levied from $15 million to $30 million.

Where it stands: To be in the top 10% of individual earners, a U.S. worker has to earn $2,905 per week, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is $150,000 per year.

• To be in the top 10% of households in 2024, you had to earn $235,000.
• The middle class tops out at $169,800 for a family of three in 2022 dollars, which is $188,400 in 2025 dollars, according to Pew Research Center.

How it works: Some government policies only apply to people making less than a certain amount, on the grounds that the rich are already comfortable enough not to need any extra help from Uncle Sam.

• Looking at where that line gets drawn provides an indicator of where the upper middle class ends and the upper class begins, at least in the eyes of Congress.

Flashback: Trump, in his first term, sent out stimulus checks to those making $198,000 per year or less for married households filing jointly. People earning more than that amount were considered rich enough not to need the checks.

• Conversely, the net investment income tax — a tax on the rich — kicks in only once a married couple filing jointly makes over $250,000 per year.
• For President Biden, $400,000 was the key number, the level below which he said he would never raise taxes, and above which he wanted a new tax to help pay for Medicare.

The bottom line: Now that home values and retirement balances regularly make their way into seven-figure territory, we've solidly entered a world of middle-class millionaires.

Yaron Lischinsky and Sarah Lynn Milgrim were identified Thursday as the two people killed in a shooting Wednesday night outside the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, D.C.

The big picture: The suspect, who authorities believe acted alone, was arrested by a museum security guard after he entered the building following the shooting. FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino called the shooting an "act of targeted violence" in a post to X.

• The Metropolitan Police Department identified the suspect as Elias Rodriguez, 30, of Chicago.
• Metropolitan Police Chief Pamela Smith said in a press briefing that Rodriguez chanted "free, free Palestine" while being arrested.

State of play: Lischinsky, 30, and Milgrim, 26, both worked for the Israeli Embassy, the Israel Foreign Ministry said in a statement shared to X.

• The pair met while working at the Embassy and were soon to be engaged, Israeli Ambassador to Washington Yechiel Leiter said at a press briefing.
• Lischinsky and Milgrim were set to travel to Israel on Sunday, Milgrim's father, Robert Milgrim, told the New York Times. While there, she was going to meet his family for the first time and Lischinsky had planned to propose, he said.

Here's what we know about the victims so far:

Yaron Lischinsky

Lischinsky was a research assistant at the Israeli Embassy in D.C. since September 2022, according to his LinkedIn.

• He was previously a desk officer at the Population and Immigration Authority in Jerusalem.

Lischinsky received a Bachelor's degree from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, where he studied international relations and Asian affairs.

• He also received a Master's degree in government, diplomacy and strategy from Reichman University with a focus on diplomacy and conflict studies.

Zoom out: Originally from Germany, Lischinsky moved to Israel at 16, per the New York Times.

• The German Embassy did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment. Germany's Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told reporters Lischinsky was an Israeli diplomat and held German citizenship.
• He grew up with a Jewish father and a Christian mother and was a practicing Christian, the New York Times reported.

Ron Prosor, Israel's ambassador to Germany, called Lischinsky "bright, curious, engaged" in a post to X.

• Prosor said he had taught Lischinsky when he was a student at Reichman University and also worked with him as a diplomat.
• "He was a Christian, a true lover of Israel, served in the IDF, and chose to dedicate his life to the State of Israel and the Zionist cause," Prosor wrote.

Nissim Otmazgin, the Dean of Humanities at Hebrew University, told CNN that Lischinsky's "dream was to become a diplomat."

• "In many ways, I think for me, he symbolizes the hope of Israel," Otmazgin said, adding that he was "idealistic" and "trying to do good for their country."
• "So in this sense, it is not only a personal tragedy, it's also kind of public tragedy," he said.

Sarah Lynn Milgrim

Milgrim had been working at the embassy since November 2023 in its Department of Public Diplomacy, according to her LinkedIn.

• She previously worked at Tech2Peace in Tel Aviv, where she focused on "the role of friendships in the Israeli-Palestinian peacebuilding process," per LinkedIn.
• She obtained a Bachelor's degree in environmental studies from the University of Kansas. Her LinkedIn also showed two Master's degrees — one from the University for Peace and the other from American University.

KU Hillel, a Jewish student group at Kansas University, said in a statement that Milgrim's "bright spirit and passion for the Jewish community touched everyone fortunate enough to know her."

• "Those closest to her describe her as 'the definition of the best person," the statement continued.

Zoom in: Her father said he saw news alerts for the shooting Wednesday night and his wife checked their daughter's location, only to see it at the crime scene.

• "I pretty much already knew," he told the New York Times. "I was hoping to be wrong."

Go deeper: 2 Israeli Embassy staff killed near Capital Jewish Museum in D.C., officials say

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional information.

OpenAI will partner with United Arab Emirates to build Stargate UAE, a massive new Middle East data center that's part of the company's OpenAI for Countries push, the deal's participants announced Thursday.

Why it matters: The deal is a huge AI bet by the Emirates, which will also secure ChatGPT Plus subscriptions for its entire population, making it the first country to do so.

Driving the news: OpenAI and its partners will build a one gigawatt AI computing cluster in Abu Dhabi, with 200 megawatts of that expected to go live next year.

• This new cluster will be part of the larger 5 gigawatt Abu Dhabi data center that Trump and Emirati President Mohammed bin Zayed announced last week.
• Also, for every dollar the UAE invests in Stargate UAE and the broader data center project in Abu Dhabi, UAE will invest an additional dollar in U.S. AI infrastructure as well — including Stargate.
• A source tells Axios' Dan Primack that the new UAE investments, via Emirati-based AI investment vehicle G42, could total $20 billion, with expected outlays in the Gulf and the U.S. at $8 to $10 billion each.

The deal is a partnership with Oracle, Nvidia, Cisco, SoftBank and G42, a Middle East-based AI startup backed by Microsoft and others.

• The U.S. government, which has a say over such deals via its export control authority, also gave its approval to the effort.

The big picture: Trump's trip to the Gulf brought a slew of AI infrastructure announcements intended to forge a new AI alliance between the U.S. and the region's energy-rich powers.

• The Trump administration sees these deals as opportunities to spread U.S. power and counter Chinese influence.
• Critics fear the flow of American chips and know-how into nations like UAE — which has had close ties to China — will make it easier for China to gain access to U.S. technology.

What they're saying: "By establishing the world's first Stargate outside of the U.S. in the UAE, we're transforming a bold vision into reality," OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in a statement. "It's a step toward ensuring some of this era's most important breakthroughs — safer medicines, personalized learning, and modernized energy — can emerge from more places and benefit the world."

Chris Lehane, OpenAI vice president of global affairs, told Axios that OpenAI hopes the deal will help "lead as many countries as possible onto the U.S. rails, into the U.S. AI system. This is a real moment in time to do that — this is an important first brick in the road. There are two countries in the world that can build this at scale, and the U.S. has a lead."

What's next: OpenAI says it wants the UAE deal to be the first of many such arrangements.

• OpenAI chief strategy officer Jason Kwon will kick off a road show across the Asia Pacific region next week, meeting with governments and potential private-sector partners.

The House voted Thursday to pass President Trump's "big, beautiful bill" after weeks of Republican infighting that repeatedly threatened to tank the GOP-only legislation.

Why it matters: It's a major step toward getting the hulking fiscal package signed into law, though the Senate is likely to make substantial changes that could be difficult for House GOP hardliners to swallow.

• The vote was 215-214.
• The bill would extend the 2017 Trump tax cuts and aims to cut $1.5 trillion in federal spending, including through Medicaid work requirements and the repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act tax credits.
• It took considerable wrangling by House Republican leadership to get to this point, with members of the right-wing House Freedom Caucus threatening to oppose it as recently as Wednesday.

State of play: The vote came after a marathon congressional session in which some lawmakers stayed up for days.

• The House Rules Committee met early Wednesday morning to markup the bill only ending late Wednesday night.
• House Democrats gummed up the works with several procedural votes, pushing the vote time back to around 6:30 am ET on Thursday.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says he's convinced of two things: The U.S. will make a long list of trade deals by mid-summer, and the tariffs forcing those deals won't raise retail prices.

Why it matters: Investors, business leaders and consumers are praying he's right.

Driving the news: Lutnick, a billionaire Wall Street CEO before entering government, was nothing but optimistic in an interview with Axios' Mike Allen at the Building the Future event in Washington.

• Asked how many of the U.S.'s 18 key trading partners would have a deal by the time a tariff pause ends July 8, he said, "I think most countries, we'll have an idea of what we want to do with them."

The big picture: Lutnick is at the forefront of the Trump administration's sweeping efforts to rewrite the rules of global trade, a campaign that has disrupted the U.S. and international economies and created deep uncertainty for businesses and consumers.

• The president's argument: The U.S. has been treated unfairly by the world for decades, at the cost of valuable American jobs — a situation that can only be fixed by a more aggressive approach.

Between the lines: Over the last few days, the single most important question about the tariffs has been what they'll do to the American consumer.

• Lutnick recently decried "silly arguments" that tariffs raise prices. A few days later, Walmart said they'd do exactly that, and a number of other companies have hinted at the same since.
• The commerce secretary didn't flinch, though. "The president has to stand strong, and you can't fix things in a day, and that's still going, but I would expect that prices in America will be unaffected."

Reality check: Notwithstanding Lutnick's certainty, retail executives expect cost pressures to build week by week, with price increases getting much more noticeable by late June or early July. 

The intrigue: While U.S. trade relations work through their biggest disruption in nearly a century, Lutnick and Trump are pushing a different incentive for foreign business leaders: a $5 million "gold card" that would confer permanent U.S. residency.

• The website, trumpcard.gov, will launch within a week
• "Everyone I meet who's not an American is going to want to buy the card if they have the fiscal capacity," he said.
• "This is for people who can help America pay off its debt. Why wouldn't you want a Plan B that says, God forbid something bad happens, you come to the airport in America and the person in immigration says, 'Welcome home.'"

With its multibillion-dollar purchase of Apple design legend Jony Ive's startup, OpenAI is doubling down on a bet that the AI revolution will birth a new generation of novel consumer devices.

Why it matters: Just as the web first came to us on the personal computer and the cloud enabled the rise of the smartphone, OpenAI's gamble is that AI's role as Silicon Valley's new platform will demand a different kind of hardware — and that Ive, who played a key role in designing the iPhone and other iconic Apple products, is the person to build it.

What they're saying: An OpenAI promo video features Ive and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman strolling through San Francisco's North Beach to meet for coffee at Francis Coppola's Zoetrope cafe.

• Ive tells Altman that we're still using "decades old" products, meaning PCs and smartphones, to connect with the "unimaginable technology" of today's AI — "so it's just common sense" to work on "something beyond these legacy products."

Between the lines: Altman has long pursued a strategy of shaping AI through devices as well as software.

• He was an early investor in Humane, whose Ai Pin device flopped, and is a co-founder of World (formerly Worldcoin), which is deploying its eyeball-scanning Orbs to verify human identity in a bot-filled world.
• At OpenAI's first-ever developer conference in 2023, Altman told Axios that major platform shifts usually usher in a new type of computing device. "If there's something amazing to do, we'll do it," he said.
• Late last year, OpenAI relaunched a hardware and robotics team, hiring former Meta executive Caitlin Kalinowski.
• Ive and Altman announced last year that they were collaborating on a hardware side project but have been tight-lipped about what their startup, named io, is working on, though Altman told Axios in an onstage interview last year that it wouldn't be a smartphone.
• The company may be pursuing "headphones and other devices with cameras," per the Wall Street Journal.

Altman loves a big bet, and this one is huge: billions in stock in exchange for Ive's talents and those of the rest of the team at io — which includes three other veteran Apple design leaders.

By the numbers: OpenAI said Wednesday it will pay $5 billion in stock to acquire the parts of io it doesn't already own.

• It already had a 23% stake in the company thanks to an exclusive partnership it signed in the fourth quarter of last year.
• Once the deal closes, which is expected to happen later this summer, the 55-person team behind io will join OpenAI, to be led by Peter Welinder. (Kalinowski will now report to Welinder rather than Altman.)
• Ive and his design firm, LoveFrom, will take on a major design role for OpenAI, though LoveFrom will remain independent and continue working on some other projects.

The big picture: Other big tech companies have also been investing in a post-smartphone hardware future.

• While investor interest in the metaverse has cooled, there's still a competitive market in VR headsets and a growing field of smart glasses as a delivery device for AI services.
• Meta has its Ray-Ban smart glasses. Google demonstrated its own prototype glasses, which include a small display. And Apple is reportedly working on augmented-reality glasses, too.

The intrigue: OpenAI's deal further seals Ive's exile from Apple, which started in 2019, and fully ties him to an emerging competitor.

Our thought bubble: Ive famously spent his career at Apple as Steve Jobs' creative partner.

• OpenAI's video presents the new Ive-Altman pairing as the natural successor to that team — with Sam as the new Steve and Apple left behind as a peddler of "legacy products."

What's next: OpenAI said that it will share the first fruits of its new hardware efforts next year, though there's no promise that anything will be shipping that soon.

Prices are going up, that's clear now — but the nation's biggest retailers are taking very different approaches to what they say on the impact of tariffs publicly.

Why it matters: President Trump's trade war is stirring echoes of the inflation that took hold of the economy just three years ago.

• Unlike the COVID era, the increase in prices was entirely foreseeable this time.

The big picture: Over the last week, the warning lights have started to flash.

• Walmart, the world's largest retailer, said last week it couldn't hold the line anymore and would have to raise some prices.
• Target said it would "offset the vast majority" of tariff impacts to consumers and remain "price competitive."
• Home Depot doesn't plan to increase prices "broadly" because of tariffs, but said some items might disappear from store shelves.
• Those comments came after the CEOs of all three met with Trump in April and warned the president that tariffs would soon lead to empty shelves, higher prices and shortages.

State of play: Trump has, for years, steadfastly insisted that Americans don't pay for tariffs — the costs, somehow, are absorbed overseas.

• But over the weekend, he demanded Walmart "eat the tariffs," which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged the company could only do for so long.
• It was, in its way, a concession of the reality that almost all of the tariff cost is borne domestically. (A reality backed up by the government's own data, per a recent Apricitas Economics note.)

Zoom in: Target and Home Depot both spoke about pricing this week, notably after Trump came down on Walmart.

• We don't see broad-based price increases for our customers at all going forward," Billy Bastek, Home Depot's executive vice president of merchandising, said Tuesday.
• Target was less certain: "We have many levers to use in mitigating the impact of tariffs and price is the very last resort," CEO Brian Cornell said Wednesday.

Between the lines: Zacks Investment Research analyst Sheraz Mian told Axios Twin Cities' Nick Halter he doubts Target will be able to fully absorb the tariffs.

• "They don't want to publicly acknowledge it and get into the unfavorable kind of political limelight by speaking the truth," Mian said.

The intrigue: Americans seem to only have a vague grasp of the mechanics of tariffs, even if they get the ultimate impact.

• A new report from consumer insights platform Zappi finds just 22% of people fully understand how tariffs affect the prices of goods — and only 20% think their household is ready to absorb those higher prices.
• But one way or another, they get something is coming — the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey found year-ahead inflation expectations surging to 7.3%, the highest since the early 1980s.
• "If these pre-tariff strategies have run their course, we're about to see some changes in prices, and then we're going to learn how consumers are going to respond to that," Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic told reporters at a conference this week.

The bottom line: Customers may see certain items exiled from store shelves if they're impacted too much by tariffs.

• "There'll be some things that don't make sense that just end up going away," Home Depot's Bastek said.