The U.S. government is spending far more than it takes in as revenue, causing ever-rising debt — and there is no sign that will change anytime soon.

The big picture: Those facts are well-known to anybody who has taken a cursory look at the government's books. But Moody's decision to downgrade the U.S. credit rating Friday is the latest reminder that this precarious fiscal standing comes with real risks.

• Moody's — the last of the three major raters to downgrade the U.S. from its once-pristine credit rating — is acknowledging that U.S. policymakers may have less room to maneuver in future recessions or crises, in light of the massive existing pile of debt.
• It is one more sign that an era in which the U.S. government could borrow seemingly limitless amounts, without experiencing the cost of higher interest rates and inflation, may have come to an end.

Zoom out: Ratings from firms like Moody's help determine how much companies, municipalities, and even sovereign nations must pay to borrow money.

• The downgrade implies that the U.S. government is a bigger credit risk than it seemed, which in theory could make some investors demand higher interest payments to buy government bonds.
• That would ripple through into higher borrowing costs across the economy, including for home and auto loans.
• In practice, most buyers of Treasury bonds aren't doing so based on credit rating firms' assessment, so the direct impact on markets was limited Monday.

State of play: The downgrade came as congressional Republicans move forward on their plan for major tax cuts, which independent fiscal watchdogs believe would increase the deficit by trillions over the coming decade.

• Compared to past episodes when the government has taken on deficit-widening initiatives, the new budget bill arrives at a moment of higher debt and higher interest rates.
• And it comes after global investors have already seemed jittery about the safety of U.S. assets amid the trade war, resulting in higher interest rates and more risk to the ability to continue financing debts.

White House officials emphasize that they inherited sky-high deficits from the Biden administration and say that their policy mix — including deregulation, tariffs, DOGE spending cuts, and pro-growth aspects of the budget bill — will help bring them down.

• "I do want to assure everyone that the deficit is a very significant concern for this administration," top White House economist Stephen Miran told reporters Monday.
• "We're determined to bring it down and to undo the damage to the fiscal health of the United States that was wrought by the Biden administration and its reckless policies."

What they're saying: "Yes, this Moody's action is largely symbolic, and it reflects information we already know," notes Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management.

• "But it's a headline that came at a wildly inopportune time for the fixed-income market," which is to say the multi-trillion dollar market for government bonds.
• "Moody's picked a moment when the world is second-guessing U.S. debt, Congress is arguing over government budget proposals, and the policy uncertainty" around long-term Treasuries is the highest in years, she adds.

The bottom line: "The government deficit isn't a problem until investors think it is," says Cox. "And they're increasingly telling us that the deficit is a problem."

National Institutes of Health budget cuts proposed by the Trump administration and staff layoffs at the largest funder of cancer research threaten to stall innovation, doctors and researchers said.

The big picture: Cancer remains the second-leading cause of death in the U.S. As former President Biden said Monday after announcing he had been diagnosed with prostate cancer, the disease "touches us all."

• For many common cancers, rates continue to rise, especially for women. And recent studies have found diagnoses for several cancers have increased among people under the age of 50, including colorectal cancer.

Yes, but: Now, potentially life-saving research faces an uncertain future, researchers say.

Zoom out: For researchers already hit hard by DOGE-driven cuts and NIH grant cancellations, the president's 2026 budget proposal with nearly $18 billion in proposed cuts posed another blow.

• The American Cancer Society's Cancer Action Network said in a May 2024 fact sheet that "[i]ncreased and sustained investment" at the NIH and its National Cancer Institute has been key to reducing the nation's cancer mortality rate, which the NCI says continues to decline.

What they're saying: "These are the most difficult times that we have ever experienced," Steven Rosenberg from the National Cancer Institute told PBS when asked about layoffs and budget cuts.

What is the NIH, and how does it contribute to cancer research?

The NIH describes itself as the nation's medical research agency and as the largest public funder of biomedical and behavioral research in the world.

• It falls under the Department of Health and Human Services and is made up of 27 institutes and centers, including the National Cancer Institute (NCI).

Flashback: The NCI was established through the National Cancer Act of 1937, signed by President Franklin D. Roosevelt.

• Since President Nixon's declaration of a "war on cancer" in the early 1970s, research enjoyed increasing shares of federal biomedical research funding with strong bipartisan support.
• The Trump administration has upended the once-bipartisan consensus on funding cancer research.

Zoom in: The NCI is the government's principal agency for cancer research and training with a team of around 3,500, according to its website.

• The NCI received a total of $7.22 billion in fiscal years 2024 and 2025.

What has happened to the NIH under the Trump administration?

The potential impacts of NIH cuts are in flux and far-reaching.

• In February, the NIH said it would make dramatic cuts to the rate it pays for institutions' administration and overhead costs, saying it would cap the indirect cost rate on new and current grants at 15% of the total cost.
• That announcement sent shockwaves through the academic research world, with some institutions receiving reimbursements of more than 50%.

Friction point: Nearly two dozen states sued in response to the administration's overhead cost cap, alleging the billions of dollars in cuts could lead to layoffs, disrupt medical trials and close labs.

• A federal judge granted a temporary freeze then later made it permanent — teeing up the administration's appeal.

Beyond that, the NIH has cut funding for research and institutions that it says do not support the agency's mission, Axios' Carrie Shepherd reported, which includes some diversity, equity and inclusion studies.

• Some of the terminations follow the president's anti-DEI executive orders, while other grants addressed topics like vaccination and LGBTQ+ health, KFF Health News reported in April.

A Senate committee report released last week by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) documenting what he called "Trump's war on science" found the NIH has committed $2.7 billion less to researchers through March, compared to the same timeframe last year.

• The Democratic staff's analysis also reported a 31% decline in cancer research grant funding in the first three months of 2025, compared to the same timeframe in the previous year.
• "[T]he Trump administration's funding freeze did not just affect new research," the report read. "Renewals of existing grants also plummeted, disrupting studies that had already gone through peer review, some of which had already started to produce results."

Yes, but: The Department of Health and Human Services, which is overseen by Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., slammed the report as a "politically motivated distortion," and called Sanders' characterization of a "war on science" "unequivocally false."

What are doctors and researchers saying about the state of cancer research?

Jalal Baig, an oncologist and writer, said in a recent MSNBC op-ed that because "no two cancer centers" are alike in their "indirect" costs, "a uniform, fixed cap would disrupt or halt operations for many."

• While that plan is blocked by a judge's injunction, he said job cuts have had "palpable effects," pointing to reports of treatment delays for patients using an experimental therapy fighting gastrointestinal cancers.

Kimryn Rathmell, the former director of the National Cancer Institute, told the Associated Press that "discoveries are going to be delayed, if they ever happen."

The bottom line: "Countless Americans depend on the continued progress of cancer research to save lives and improve cancer care," Baig wrote. "And without it, many potential insights and treatments needed to propel oncology forward will never be realized."

Go deeper: Trump budget targets NIH, CDC for cuts

The Trump administration can strip temporary deportation protections from 350,000 Venezuelans, the Supreme Court said Monday.

Why it matters: The Venezuelan immigrants are still challenging the Trump administration's decision to remove their Temporary Protected Status in a lower court, but the Supreme Court's order means those protections can be revoked while the case continues.

• A federal judge in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California had blocked the Trump administration from removing the deportation protections, but the Supreme Court overturned that decision on Monday.
• Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson would have denied the request, per the court's order.
• As many as 350,000 Venezuelans are covered by the Temporary Protected Status, according to court filings.

Catch up quick: Outgoing Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas had extended the deportation protections for Venezuelans until 2026 in the waning days of the Biden administration.

• In its request to the Supreme Court, the Trump administration said the district court judge's nationwide stay overstepped its authority.
• "The court thus wrested control of the nation's immigration policy away from the Executive Branch," the administration said.

What they're saying: The National TPS Alliance, which is representing the Venezuelans in the federal district court case, said the immigrants covered by the protected status "cannot return safely to their country of origin."

• President Trump had ordered that deportations of Venezuelans be deferred on his first day in office during his first term. Those protections were periodically extended until the second Trump administration revoked them in February.
• DHS Secretary Krisi Noem even acknowledged in her revocation order that conditions in Venezuela had not improved since the temporary protections were first enacted, the TPS Alliance told the district court.

Editor's note: This story has been updated throughout with additional information.

The U.S. government's fiscal situation has been worrying in a sort of abstract, long-term way for years. Now it's getting real.

The big picture: There are emerging signs that global investors are losing patience with a U.S. government that shows no intention of narrowing deficits to more sustainable levels.

• At this point, it isn't a debt crisis or even the kind of mini-crisis that cost U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss her job in 2022, when the British currency and bonds sold off after an ill-fated budget proposal.
• But there are signs everywhere — in bond market moves, credit rating agency actions, currency markets — that U.S. policymakers have less room to maneuver than they may have thought.

Driving the news: Moody's downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating Friday, the last of the major rating agencies to strip the U.S. of its top-tier status.

• "Successive US administrations and Congress have failed to agree on measures to reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs," Moody's said.
• Treasury bonds were selling off Monday, pushing the 30-year Treasury yield up 0.07 percentage point to 4.97% as of 11:50am ET. It hovered near the highest levels seen since 2007, other than a few days in the fall of 2023.

Between the lines: The Treasury market is perhaps the most scrutinized on Earth, and Moody's analysts don't have special insight that fixed-income strategists and hedge fund managers around the world lack.

• But the fact that bonds sold off following the downgrade suggests global investors who fund U.S. debt are becoming more wary of the long-term fiscal outlook — as reflected in diminished demand for the longest-dated securities.
• Notably, when S&P downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating in 2011, Treasury yields paradoxically fell, reflecting the dominant view then that they represented the ultimate safe haven in times of turmoil.

State of play: Congressional Republicans are making progress on legislation that front-loads tax cuts and backloads spending cuts. Fiscal watchdogs believe it would add trillions to the national debt relative to current law.

• The Yale Budget Lab, for example, calculates it would add $3.4 trillion to cumulative deficits over the next decade if tax cuts expire in 2028 and 2029 as scheduled, or $5 trillion if they are extended.
• The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget calculates that the legislation could cause the government's debt service costs to approach $2 trillion and more than 4% of GDP, which would be the most on record. (It was 3.1% last year and 1.5% as recently as 2021.)

This represents a turnabout from the pattern of the last 25 years, when there was little evident resistance from bond buyers as the U.S. government looked to borrow.

Zoom out: At other key moments in the recent past when the U.S. considered deficit-enlarging fiscal action, markets gave a big flashing green light.

• That includes the post-2001 global war on terror, the 2008 financial crisis, with President Trump's 2017 tax law, plus the pandemic response under both Trump and former President Biden.
• Now, it is at best a yellow light.

Flashback: Consider the state of play when the 2017 Trump tax cuts were being debated.

• The national debt then was 75.7%. Now it's approaching 100%. The government's debt service costs were 1.4% of GDP. Now it's 3.1% and rising.
• The 10-year Treasury yield averaged 2.3%. Now it's 4.5%.

What they're saying: Russel Matthews with RBC BlueBay Asset Management wrote in a note that "there is limited desire or ability for any US politicians to present a roadmap for a serious reduction in the fiscal deficit.

• "We don't see any contraction in the deficit over the foreseeable future, and the risk is that it increases from the current level around 6.5% of GDP," he added.
• "If this dynamic is unchecked, it is inevitable that the US has some kind of Liz Truss moment; a spike in rates volatility and yields moving substantially higher, particularly at the long end of the curve. However, predicting when we reach this tipping point is extremely difficult," noted Matthews.

The Trump administration has instituted all sorts of requirements in its first months to monitor Americans, particularly immigrants.

The big picture: From an undocumented immigrant registry to proof-of-citizenship for voting, President Trump has attempted to create a landscape in which the government can demand to know — and force people to prove — their identity in radical new ways.

Between the lines: The data the administration is pushing for can be weaponized against people.

Immigration

As part of its immigration crackdown, the administration instituted a plan to require undocumented immigrants to register with the federal government, which a federal judge gave a stamp of approval.

• The plan requires undocumented immigrants age 14 or older to provide their fingerprints or face a fine or even imprisonment.
• The Department of Homeland Security launched an app that officials say will allow immigrants suspected of being in the country illegally to report when they "self-deport."
• Targets of the administration's immigration crackdown also include U.S. tourists and permanent residents from around the world, who have been arrested, detained and deported at ports of entry.
• Social Security is now an immigration enforcement tool.
• The Internal Revenue Service reached an agreement with the Department of Homeland Security to share the tax information of undocumented immigrants with immigration authorities.

Education

As part of the Trump administration's playbook to influence and reorient the priorities of universities, school protest leaders have been targets.

• Mahmoud Khalil, a leader of Columbia's pro-Palestinian protests, was arrested without a warrant and has remained in ICE custody.
• Free-speech advocates see it as a chilling escalation of Trump's immigration crackdown and as a First Amendment issue. The White House argues that his actions in helping to lead campus protests against Israel's treatment of Palestinians run afoul of the president's order banning antisemitism.

Meanwhile, as the government probes schools over alleged antisemitism, employees at Barnard College received a survey from a federal regulator asking if they were Jewish and whether they practiced Judaism.

• That was characterized as part of a federal investigation into whether the university discriminated against Jewish employees.
• "That the government is putting together lists of Jews, ostensibly as part of a campaign to fight antisemitism, is really chilling," Nara Milanich, a Barnard history professor who is Jewish, told AP. "As a historian, I have to say it feels a little uncomfortable."

Voting

Trump signed an executive order in March to make sweeping changes to federal elections, including a proof of citizenship requirement. A federal judge blocked that requirement last week.

• The House, meanwhile, passed the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, requiring voters to provide documentary proof of citizenship when they register to vote. SAVE aims to restrict noncitizen voting in federal elections — which is exceptionally rare and illegal.

Health

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced he's launching a disease registry to track Americans with autism.

• The National Institutes of Health is collecting private medical records from both federal and commercial databases.

Go deeper: MAGA momentum wanes as Trump stumbles across 100-day mark

President Trump has invited newly inaugurated Pope Leo to the White House, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Monday.

Why it matters: If accepted, the visit would mark the first time a pope has visited the White House since Pope Francis visited then-President Obama in 2015.

• Vice President JD Vance gave Leo a letter containing the president and first lady Melania Trump's "warm wishes" and an invitation to the White House as soon as he could visit, Leavitt said.
• A visit from Leo, the first American-born pope, would mark the fourth visit to the White House by a pontiff. Pope John Paul II visited then-President Jimmy Carter in 1979, and Pope Benedict XVI visited then-President George W. Bush in 2008.

Catch up quick: In a recording, Leo was heard responding "at some point" when Vance gave him the letter, per AP.

• Vance, along with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other world leaders, attended Leo's inauguration Mass on Sunday. Vance led the U.S. delegation.
• Vance gave Leo a copy of two of St. Augustine's most seminal works and a Chicago Bears T-shirt with Leo's name on it, per AP. Leo gave Vance a bronze sculpture and a coffee table book featuring photos of the papal apartments in the Apostolic Palace.

Zoom out: Leo is uniquely positioned to help ease divisions between Catholics in the U.S., Axios' Russell Contreras previously reported.

• He has been an outspoken defender of migrant rights, which could put him at odds with the Trump administration's deportation and anti-immigrant policies.

Go deeper: In photos: World leaders gather for Pope Leo XIV's inaugural Mass

President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke for around two hours on Monday, after which Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine would "immediately start negotiations toward a ceasefire" and an end to the war.

Why it matters: Trump previously argued his personal involvement would be crucial to achieving any deal, but walked back from any mediator role on Monday and said the talks would be only between the two countries. He added that Pope Leo XIV "would be very interested in hosting" talks in the Vatican.

• A first round of ceasefire talks already took place on Friday in Istanbul, with no major breakthroughs. Putin initially proposed a leader-level summit, then declined to attend.
• Trump's statement that the U.S. won't play a role in talks going forward reflects the Russian position that the U.S. should not mediate the dispute. The Russians refused to allow State Department official Michael Anton to attend Friday's talks.

Friction point: Ukraine, NATO allies and Trump himself have demanded that Russia agree to an immediate and unconditional ceasefire. Trump's statement suggests Putin convinced him of the need for negotiations over the terms of any ceasefire.

Between the lines: Trump has threatened to impose sanctions on any party that obstructs a deal, but has not imposed any penalties on Russia thus far for opposing a swift ceasefire.

• On Friday, he said in an interview with Fox News that he will use his leverage on Putin if he thinks it's needed.
• On Sunday, Trump held a conference call with the leaders of U.K., France, Germany and Italy who urged him to sanction Russia if Putin doesn't agree to an immediate and unconditional ceasefire during their call.
• Trump spoke to a those four European leaders plus the leaders of Finland and the European Commission on a conference call Monday immediately after his call with Putin.
• While Putin did not agree to a ceasefire, Trump described the tone of the call as "excellent."

What they're saying: The Kremlin said the call was "meaningful, frank and very useful" and that Russia was "ready to work with Ukraine on a memorandum on a future peace treaty, which may also include a ceasefire and principles for resolving the conflict."

• Putin adviser Yuri Ushakov said Trump and Putin didn't discuss timetable for a ceasefire but said Trump stressed he want it to happen "quickly."
• Trump told Putin the U.S. Senate is preparing possible sanctions against Russia but stressed he prefers to reach an agreement and not use sanctions, Ushakov claimed.

Trump called Zelensky ahead of the call with Putin and spoke to him for a few minutes, according to a source familiar.

• Zelensky wrote on X ahead of the call that Ukraine insists on the need for a "full and unconditional ceasefire" in order to establish the necessary foundation for diplomacy.
• "Such a ceasefire must be long enough and include the possibility of extension. Our proposal is 30 days. We are also prepared for a meeting at the level of leaders to solve the key issues. Ukraine is not afraid of direct talks with Russia, and it is important that the Russian leadership not prolong the war," Zelensky wrote.

The intrigue: Hosting negotiations would be a very high profile first act of international diplomacy for the American-born Pope Leo XIV.

What to watch: Vice President Vance reiterated ahead of the call that the U.S. was "more than open to walking away" from the peace process if it didn't show results.

• Vance admitted the talks between Russia and Ukraine are at "a bit of an impasse" and stressed that "one open question is whether Vladimir Putin is serious about negotiating peace."

This story was updated throughout after the call.

Former President Joe Biden thanked his followers for their support in a Monday social media post after his office confirmed Sunday he has been diagnosed with an "aggressive" form of prostate cancer.

The big picture: The news of Biden's cancer diagnosis was met with a bipartisan outpouring of support as his personal office said he and his family are "reviewing treatment options with his physicians."

• According to his office, the cancer is "characterized by a Gleason score of 9 (Grade Group 5)," citing a grading system used for prostate cancer, "with metastasis to the bone."

Driving the news: Sharing a selfie with former first lady Jill Biden and their cat, Willow, the former president wrote, "Cancer touches us all."

• He continued, "Like so many of you, Jill and I have learned that we are strongest in the broken places. Thank you for lifting us up with love and support."

Zoom out: Biden was diagnosed on Friday after doctors discovered a "prostate nodule."

• In 2023, Biden had a skin lesion removed from his chest that was found to be cancerous, but it did not require further treatment.

Go deeper: What to know about Joe Biden's Cancer Moonshot

One bright spot in this bummer housing market: More listings are shaking loose.

Why it matters: Some homeowners sitting on low mortgage rates are finally selling.

By the numbers: Inventory in 20 of the 50 largest U.S. metros topped pre-pandemic norms in April, up from 18 in March, per Realtor.com.

Yes, but: The mortgage "lock-in effect," as experts call it, isn't going away anytime soon.

• In all 50 states, over half of mortgages have rates below 4%, according to Cotality, an industry data provider.
• In California, Utah and North Dakota, the share hits 71%. Nationally, it's 62%.

Between the lines: Most who took out new mortgages in recent years have rates above 6%.

• The average rate on the 30-year mortgage hasn't dipped below 6% since 2022, according to Freddie Mac.

Zoom in: States with more mortgage originations over the past three years see more loans with rates at 6% or higher, says Molly Boesel, principal economist at Cotality, formerly known as CoreLogic.

What's next: Mortgage rates aren't expected to fall much this year and home prices continue to rise.

• Many buyers — and homeowners looking to refinance — await any chance to lower their monthly payments.

Vice President JD Vance considered traveling to Israel on Tuesday but decided against it due to the expansion of Israel's military operation in Gaza, a senior U.S. official told Axios.

Why it matters: The U.S. official said Vance made the decision because he didn't want his trip to suggest the Trump administration endorsed the Israeli decision to launch a massive operation at a time when the U.S. is pushing for a ceasefire and hostage deal.

Between the lines: This isn't about publicly pressuring Israel. Vance officially cited "logistical" reasons for passing on the visit.

• But his decision sheds light on how the U.S. feels about the current Israeli policy in Gaza.
• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has refused to sign any agreement that would end the war, and has show little flexibility in negotiations despite the urgent efforts of U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff to make a deal and stave off the Israeli operation.

Driving the news: On Friday, the Israel Defense Forces began mobilizing troops for operation "Gideon's Chariots," which calls for Israel to displace all 2 million Palestinians in Gaza to a "humanitarian zone" and flatten most of the enclave.

• On Sunday, the IDF announced the ground operation was underway in multiple areas of the Gaza Strip.

Behind the scenes: On Saturday, the Trump administration informed the Israeli government that Vance was considering stopping in Israel after attending the pope's inauguration, Israeli officials say.

• Additional discussions took place on Sunday between U.S. and Israeli officials to prepare for Vance's visit. Reports soon popped up in the Israeli press that Vance might arrive on Tuesday.
• Several hours later, a White House official denied the reports in a statement to reporters traveling with the VP. "While the Secret Service has engaged in contingency planning for the addition of several potential countries, no additional visits were at any point decided upon, and logistical constraints have precluded an extension of his travel beyond Rome. He will return to Washington on Monday."
• The VP's office declined to comment for this story beyond that statement.

The intrigue: A U.S. official with knowledge of what actually happened during those several hours told Axios logistics weren't the issue.

• While Vance was deliberating, concerns were raised that a trip to Israel at this time would be perceived by Israel and countries in the region as validation for Israel's expanded operation.
• At that point, Vance decided not to go.

State of play: The Trump administration is trying to cut a deal to halt the operation, release more hostages, and allow aid in to prevent starvation and a deeper humanitarian catastrophe.

• Under pressure from the Trump administration and European allies, the Israeli Security Cabinet decided Sunday to immediately resume the transfer of aid to Gaza through existing channels until a new humanitarian mechanism is operational.
• Witkoff gave Israel and Hamas an updated proposal last week for a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal and is pressing the parties to accept it, Axios reported on Sunday.

After targeting dyes and other chemicals allowed for use in food, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is zeroing in on the active ingredient in Roundup in his bid to root out what he calls environmental toxins that contribute to chronic disease.

Why it matters: The herbicide glyphosate is expected to feature prominently in a report due out this week from President Trump's Make America Healthy Again Commission, which was charged with identifying top contributors to America's chronic health problems.

• But some warn that clamping down on pesticides could cause major disruption of the food supply, with repercussions for agriculture interests and consumers.

In a speech last week, White House senior health adviser Calley Means previewed the report's findings, pointing to chemical pesticides as contributors to Americans' poor health.

• "Obviously it's because of environmental toxins. We produce and ingest 25% of the world's pesticides," Means said at an event in D.C. launching the MAHA institute. "The leading herbicides and pesticides that we use in the United States — many of them are phased out or banned in every other country in the world."

The big picture: While some environmentalists and wellness influencers have long decried the to use of herbicides and pesticides, glyphosate is the most widely used weedkiller worldwide and the key ingredient in Bayer's Roundup.

• Bayer has said its product has been widely tested and found safe and essential.
• "We support the application of sound science to address the complex causes of chronic disease and food insecurity in America," a Bayer spokesperson told Axios. "We look forward to exploring how we can support the administration's initiatives."

Yes, but: Some researchers who've tested animals or made observational studies have found connections between chemicals such as glyphosate and chronic inflammation, cancer, neurodegenerative disease and autism.

• "All we are doing as scientists here is just trying to show the use is going up substantially every year," said Ramon Velazquez, a researcher at Arizona State University-Banner Neurodegenerative Disease Research Center.
• "Are there possible detrimental outcomes? ... Unfortunately, what we're finding with our research and support with others is that the answer is yes."

Friction point: But some White House officials have raised concerns about what removing glyphosate would do to the food supply. Officials at the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Agriculture dispute Kennedy's belief that weedkillers are harmful to health, the Wall Street Journal reported.

• The chemical atrazine, which is banned in Europe, is also expected to be highlighted in the forthcoming commission report as a contributor to poor health, the WSJ reported. Glyphosate is allowed in Europe, though it's controversial because of alleged health and environmental effects.

Kennedy and his supporters regularly point to "environmental toxins" as the underpinnings of disease.

• "It's a carcinogen, an endocrine disruptor, it causes kidney and liver damage. ... It can contribute to reproductive harm, which is a crisis in America today," Zen Honeycutt, founder and executive director of Moms Across America, who's aligned with Kennedy's agenda, told Axios.

Some environmental groups say it's impossible to split the difference and that getting results likely requires strict new regulations.

• Melanie Benesh, vice president of government affairs for the Environmental Working Group, which tracks use of glyphosate, pointed to Kennedy's recent effort to remove petroleum-based food dyes that she said amounted to little more than an "understanding" with industry, a point food companies later disputed.
• "It is hard for me to imagine how you can successfully get something like ... glyphosate, that is as widely used as it is, restricted or off the market or narrowing the uses without taking some kind of regulatory action, in this case, a regulatory action that would fall outside of the jurisdiction of the HHS secretary," she said.

Yes, but: Facing ongoing legal challenges, Bayer has warned farmers and retailers it may actually take the product off the market, WSJ reported.

• There are some alternatives that have been suggested to replace glyphosate, including more natural forms of farming, as well as a future where AI-enabled robotic weeders replace chemicals.

Reality check: Means has been working to harmonize Kennedy's goals with MAGA priorities.

• "This report coming out on the 22nd is a scientific assessment. It's a statement of what's happening. It's a statement of these unimpeachable facts," Means said. "Then we get to policy. When it comes to things like regulatory action on pesticides, we don't want a European nanny state system."
• Kip Tom, vice chair for rural policy at the America First Policy Institute, called it a "false choice" between protecting human health and supporting farmers.
• "We remain hopeful that science, innovation, and open dialogue will guide us toward policies that both strengthen American agriculture and reduce the burden of diet-related chronic disease," he told Axios in an emailed statement.

What's next: While there's been a big focus on agricultural chemicals and food safety, there's less consensus around other factors that Kennedy and Means say are poisoning Americans, including seed oils and refined sugars in processed foods, childhood vaccines and a rise in the use of psychiatric medications in teens.

• Leading medical organizations do not support many of those claims.

The Trump administration conceded this weekend what economists, CEOs and consumers already knew: Americans pay for tariffs.

Why it matters: Nearly a decade of Trump trade arguments held that foreign countries, not Americans, paid the ultimate cost of a trade war.

• But the president and his economic team now acknowledge that tariffs are raising prices for everyone, from industrial ports to retail storefronts.

The big picture: Trump's sweeping global tariffs, effectively the highest in nearly a century, are expected to cost the average household more than $2,300 a year, according to the Yale Budget Lab.

• Even companies that once promised to hold the line on those costs, like Walmart, now say they have no choice but to pass them along.
• Inflation may be benign for now, but experts are increasingly convinced that higher prices are only a matter of time.

Catch up quick: After Walmart said this week it would raise prices, a furious Trump insisted on Truth Social that the company "eat the tariffs" — a concession, of sorts, that someone this side of the border had to pay something, somehow.

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent then went on the Sunday TV shows and said that while Walmart would eat some of the tariffs, consumers would have to pay, too.

The intrigue: It was only May 11 that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick insisted people had to drop the "silly arguments" that consumers would pay the costs of trade levies.

• Four days later, the country's largest retailer said that's exactly what they'd have to do.

For the record: "The Administration has consistently maintained that the United States, the world's best and biggest market economy, has the leverage to make our trading partners ultimately bear the cost of tariffs," White House spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement.

• "The data backs us up: we've now had three months of below-expectation inflation reports after enacting tariffs, especially on China. Low inflation, robust jobs reports, and trillions in historic investment commitments prove that President Trump's agenda of tariffs, rapid deregulation, tax cuts, and domestic energy production is laying the groundwork to restore American Greatness."

Between the lines: Bessent said Sunday that while consumer prices may rise due to tariffs, people will see even bigger benefits from the falling price of gasoline.

• He argued it was effectively a tax cut for consumers, and would help keep inflation in line.

Reality check: With the average American vehicle using a little under 500 gallons of gas a year, and gas prices per gallon being a little over 40 cents cheaper today than a year ago, the average driver is looking at an annual savings of around $200 per car.

• That's a fraction of what Yale and other budget experts estimate tariffs will cost households.

What to watch: Multiple tariff clocks are ticking — a pause on sweeping reciprocal tariffs ends in early July, and a mutual lowering of duties with China ends in early August, unless deals can be struck between now and then.

• But even if deals are struck later this year, it may be too late to avoid at least some short-term price pain.
• "If Walmart is raising prices, it certainly means that other retailers are going to be raising prices as well," Gabelli Funds analyst Justin McAuliffe wrote last week.

The House Budget Committee approved President Trump's "big, beautiful bill" Sunday after Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) convinced a cadre of Republican opponents to drop their opposition pending changes that have not yet been publicly disclosed and may still be in flux.

Why it matters: It's a big win for Johnson and Trump, two days after GOP opposition torpedoed their first attempt at committee passage. But they'll still need to pass it through House Rules and on the House floor, where Republicans have a razor-thin majority.

• The vote was 17-16, with four Republicans voting "present" and all Democrats in opposition.
• GOP Reps. Chip Roy (Texas), Ralph Norman (S.C.), Andrew Clyde (Ga.) and Josh Brecheen (Okla.) voted present after voting "no" on Friday.
• Norman said he was "excited about the changes" in the works for the bill.

Catch up quick: The panel on Friday rejected the bill in a 16-21 vote, touching off a weekend of furious negotiations with GOP holdouts on the committee.

• Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) said during Sunday night's session that "most likely there would be some changes" to the measure before it comes to the floor.
• But Arrington said he couldn't comment on specifics or any side deals that might have been struck.
• Johnson told reporters at the Capitol earlier Sunday night that there had been "minor modifications" to the measure, according to multiple reports on X.

Zoom in: One of the stickiest sticking points has been the GOP's massive Medicaid overhaul, with conservatives and moderates pulling in opposite directions on proposed changes.

• Even if they get the package through, Senate Republicans will be waiting with their own fixes, Axios Pro's Peter Sullivan and Victoria Knight report.
• Johnson also has been trying to close a deal with blue state Republicans for a SALT compromise.
• Trump urged Republicans on Friday to support the measure, posting to his Truth Social account: "We don't need 'GRANDSTANDERS' in the Republican Party. STOP TALKING, AND GET IT DONE!"

Editor's note: The caption on this story was corrected to reflect House Speaker Mike Johnson is a Republican, not a Democrat.

Former President Biden's cancer diagnosis prompted an outpouring of support from across the political spectrum on Sunday, including from President Trump and former Vice President Harris.

The big picture: After Biden's representatives announced he was diagnosed with an "aggressive form" of prostate cancer on Friday, both Democrats and Republicans took to social media to pay tribute.

What they're saying:

Trump said on Truth Social, "Melania and I are saddened to hear about Joe Biden's recent medical diagnosis. We extend our warmest and best wishes to Jill and the family, and we wish Joe a fast and successful recovery."

Former President Obama said in Facebook tribute to his vice president that he and former first lady Michelle Obama were thinking of the entire Biden family.

• "Nobody has done more to find breakthrough treatments for cancer in all its forms than Joe," Obama said of Biden, who spearheaded the Cancer Moonshot initiative following the death of his son from brain cancer —an effort to cut cancer death rates and improve the experiences of people affected by cancer that he stepped up when he was president.
• "I am certain he will fight this challenge with his trademark resolve and grace," Obama added. "We pray for a fast and full recovery."

Harris wrote on Bluesky that she and her husband, former second gentleman Doug Emhoff, were saddened to learn of Biden's diagnoses.

• The 2024 Democratic vice presidential candidate said they're keeping him, former first lady Jill Biden and their family "in our hearts and prayers," adding: "Joe is a fighter — and I know he will face this challenge with the same strength, resilience, and optimism that have always defined his life and leadership. We are hopeful for a full and speedy recovery."

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said on X he's praying for the former president "and the entire Biden family."

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said in a statement that he, the "House Democratic Caucus and our nation are praying" for Biden and his family.

• "Over the years, the Biden family has confronted unimaginable adversity with grace and steadfast perseverance," he added. "We stand with President Biden as he confronts this moment with the same courage and resilience he has shown throughout his life."

Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.) noted in a video posted to X that as someone who's worked as a urologist, taking care of patients with prostate cancer for three decades, he can say that with "many medical interventions" life expectancy can be extended by several years."

• Murphy's hope is that Biden "will have good, good treatment awaiting him, and that his cancer responds well to the diagnosis."

House Speaker Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La) wrote on X, "This is certainly sad news, and the Johnson family will be joining the countless others who are praying for the former President in the wake of his diagnosis."

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said on Bluesky he's praying for his "friend" Biden and "will be keeping Joe, the entire Biden family, and the medical professionals treating him in our thoughts during this time," adding: "Continue to keep the faith, Joe."

Former Obama Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Facebook, "I'm thinking of the Bidens as they take on cancer, a disease they've done so much to try to spare other families from. Wishing you a speedy, full recovery."

Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) said on X that as a cancer survivor, she knows how difficult this news can be and wished him a full and speedy recovery.

• "I send my love and support to President Biden and his family. He's a ferocious fighter, and I know he'll handle this battle with strength and dignity," she said.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) wrote on X that she's "sorry to see this news," adding: "Cancer is truly awful. My Dad passed away in 2021 with cancer. Prays for Joe Biden and his family."

Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) said on X he's praying for Biden "to defeat the cancer he's recently been diagnosed with," adding: "He and Jill have always been fighters and I am confident they will meet this challenge with grit and grace."

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) expressed her sadness on X at Biden's cancer diagnosis and said she's "wishing him and his family well as he begins treatment."

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) wrote on X, "Our hearts are with President Biden and his entire family right now. A man of dignity, strength, and compassion like his deserves to live a long and beautiful life. Sending strength, healing and prayers his way."

Flashback: Lesion removed from Biden's chest was cancerous, doctor says

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

Former President Biden was diagnosed on Friday with an "aggressive form" of prostate cancer, according to a statement from his personal office.

The big picture: He was evaluated earlier this month after doctors found a "small nodule" in his prostate during a routine physical exam.

Driving the news: "Last week, President Joe Biden was seen for a new finding of a prostate nodule after experiencing increasing urinary symptoms," according to the statement.

• "On Friday, he was diagnosed with prostate cancer, characterized by a Gleason score of 9 (Grade Group 5) with metastasis to the bone," the statement read.
• Some types of cancer, like prostate and breast cancer, are particularly likely to spread to the bones, according to Mayo Clinic. Bone metastasis can cause pain and broken bones.

The cancer appears to be "hormone-sensitive," the statement read, "which allows for effective management."

• Biden and his family "are reviewing treatment options with his physicians," the statement continued.

Context: Gleason scores are a grading system used for prostate cancer, according to Cleveland Clinic.

• They range from six, which is considered low-grade cancer, to 10, which is high-grade.
• Prostate cancer is more likely to develop in older men, according to the American Cancer Society, and is the second-leading cause of cancer death in American men, behind only lung cancer.

Flashback: In 2023, Biden had a cancerous skin lesion removed from his chest, but it did not require further treatment.

More from Axios:

• Trump, lawmakers wish Biden well after cancer diagnoses
• Key facts about prostate cancer following Biden's diagnosis

The Israeli Security Cabinet decided on Sunday to immediately resume the transfer of humanitarian aid to Gaza through existing channels until a new humanitarian aid mechanism starts working, according to two senior Israeli officials.

Why it matters: After the Gaza ceasefire's collapse in early March, Israel halted humanitarian aid into Gaza, resulting in a significant deterioration of the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip.

• President Trump said several times over the past week that Palestinian civilians in Gaza are starving.

Driving the news: The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), which developed the new aid mechanism, announced a few days ago that Israel had agreed to renew the transfer of humanitarian aid to Gaza using the existing mechanisms until the new arrangements are in place.

• Resuming aid delivery was the key condition of the GHF — established with backing from the U.S. and Israel — for the launch of a new aid delivery mechanism in Gaza, which Israel says will allow aid to be delivered without being controlled by Hamas.
• Senior Israeli officials denied last week that there is a plan to resume aid, asserting that aid would not be allowed into Gaza via the existing mechanisms, but only through the new mechanism.
• However, in recent days, international pressure increased, particularly from the Trump administration and many European countries, demanding that Israel immediately resume humanitarian aid to Gaza.

Behind the scenes: During the Cabinet meeting, representatives from the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) and the IDF said that the food supplies from the United Nations and other aid organizations had been depleted, and therefore there was an urgent need to immediately bring in humanitarian aid, according to an Israeli official.

• The IDF and COGAT's recommendation contradicted statements made just the day before by Defense Minister Israel Katz, who claimed there was no immediate need to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza.
• A senior Israeli official said that Cabinet ministers were informed that the new aid mechanism for Gaza — operated through GHF and American private contractors — would begin functioning at the earliest on May 24, and therefore, a bridging period was necessary.
• The official added that the Cabinet decided the aid to be transferred would include food, such as flour for bakeries operated by international organizations or by the UAE, as well as medicine for hospitals in the enclave.

The aid will be delivered via the UN World Food Programme, World Central Kitchen, and other aid organizations. The senior official emphasized that the aid will be monitored by the international organizations.

• Although the Cabinet did not hold a vote on the decision, it was effectively approved. Far-right Ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich voiced opposition to the renewal of humanitarian aid during the meeting.

What they are saying: The Israeli Prime Minister's office said in a statement that the decision was based on the IDF's recommendation, "and due to the operational need to enable the expansion of the high-intensity fighting to defeat Hamas."

• "Israel will allow the entry of a basic amount of food for the population in order to prevent the development of a famine crisis in the Gaza Strip," the statement said.
• The statement added that a humanitarian crisis would endanger Israel's 'Gideon's Chariots' operation and prevent them from defeating Hamas.
• "Israel will act to deny Hamas the ability to take control of the distribution of humanitarian aid, in order to ensure that the aid does not reach Hamas terrorists," the Prime Minister's office said.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional information throughout.

Pope Leo XIV presided over his inaugural Mass on Sunday before a crowd of some 200,000 people.

The big picture: Leo — with world leaders, religious delegations and faithful alike watching — evoked some messages reminiscent of his predecessor Pope Francis and called for love and unity.

• In the crowd were Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The papacy of Leo, who has defended migrant rights, comes amid the backdrop of the Trump administration's immigration crackdown, which has been condemned by some religious leaders.
• Leo, the first U.S.-born pontiff who spent much of his career in Peru, is seen as uniquely positioned to ease divisions between white and Latino Catholics in the U.S., Axios' Russell Contreras reports.

The intrigue: After the Mass, Leo — who has called for a "just and lasting peace" in Ukraine — met privately with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

As he closed his homily, he emphasized, "brothers and sisters, this is the hour for love," according to the New York Times.

• He also called for peace in Ukraine, Gaza and Myanmar.

Go deeper: Why the conclave elected Robert Prevost, now Pope Leo XIV

White House envoy Steve Witkoff has given Israel and Hamas an updated proposal for a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal and is pressing the parties to accept it, an Israeli official and a source with direct knowledge told Axios.

Why it matters: The Trump administration is trying to stave off a massive Israeli operation in Gaza, release more hostages, and allow aid in to prevent starvation and a humanitarian catastrophe.

• The Israeli military said on Sunday that ground forces began operating in multiple areas in the northern and southern Gaza Strip as part of an operation called "Gideon's Chariots."
• IDF officials said five infantry and armored divisions are participating in the operation, which includes reoccupying the entire Gaza Strip and flattening it.

Behind the scenes: While Israel and Hamas both have negotiation teams in Doha, the real talks about Witkoff's proposal are occurring through other channels at the moment, the sources said.

• The White House envoy has been talking directly with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his confidant Ron Dermer, as well as with Hamas leadership in Doha through a backchannel facilitated by Palestinian-American businessman Bishara Bahbah.
• This backchannel was crucial in securing the release of Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander last week.

Witkoff's updated offer is similar to previous ones and includes the release of 10 hostages in return for 45-60 days of ceasefire and the release of Palestinian prisoners, according to an Israeli official and a source with direct knowledge of the proposal.

• But it differs from previous proposals with new language that makes clear the new ceasefire and hostage deal will be the beginning of a broader move that could end the war.
• The new language is aimed at giving guarantees to Hamas that Netanyahu won't be able to unilaterally decide the ceasefire is over and resume the war, as he did in March.

What they're saying: "The new offer tries to give Hamas confidence that it's worth moving forward with a partial deal now, because it could lead to the end of the war later on," a source with knowledge of the negotiations said.

• The sources said Netanyahu has given a positive response, but with many conditions and reservations. Hamas still hasn't given a positive answer, and sources said the group wants to get a clear guarantee that a temporary ceasefire could lead to a permanent one.
• "The talks in Doha in recent days are a facade. This is not where the real negotiations are taking place at the moment. If Hamas and Israel agree to the principles of the Witkoff proposal, the negotiations will move to Doha to discuss the details," an Israeli official said.

Between the lines: Hamas officials were disappointed that Alexander's release hasn't led to a more favorable U.S. position towards them, a source with knowledge of the issue said.

• The Israeli strike that targeted Mohammed Sinwar, the leader of Hamas' military wing, created even more frustration inside Hamas' leadership regarding negotiations with the Trump administration.
• Sinwar is believed to have been killed, along with several other Hamas senior commanders, Israeli officials say.

State of play: The Trump administration is also pressing the Israeli government to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza immediately, sources say.

• Witkoff told ABC's "This Week" on Sunday that Trump is concerned about the humanitarian conditions in Gaza.
• "The Israelis have indicated that they're going to begin to allow a lot more of these trucks to get in," Witkoff said, before adding that the situation is "logistically complicated. And the conditions on the ground are dangerous."
• But, Witkoff continued: "We do not want to see a humanitarian crisis, and we will not allow it to occur on President Trump's watch."

Some Democrats on Sunday expressed a collective responsibility for the party's 2024 election loss amid concerns about former President Biden's mental fitness.

The big picture: Audio obtained by Axios from Biden's October 2023 interviews with special counsel Robert Hur, coupled with new reports that suggested lapses in the former president's memory, have become fodder as Democrats chart their course forward.

• Hur asserted last year that a jury would likely perceive Biden as a "sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory," a characterization the then-president's legal counsel described as using "highly prejudicial language."
• Today, many Democrats agree Biden should not have pursued a second term.

Driving the news: "I think we all bear responsibility," said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) on NBC News' "Meet the Press" Sunday.

• He added, "In retrospect, you can't defend what the Democratic Party did because we are stuck with a madman, with a corrupt president in the Oval Office, and we should have given ourselves a better chance to win."
• Murphy reflected on his time working with the president throughout 2022 on bipartisan gun reform legislation and in 2023 on Middle East developments. At the time, he said, he saw "a president who was in control."
• But by 2024, Murphy said, the "American public had made up their mind ... that they wanted the Democratic Party to nominate somebody new, and it was absolutely a mistake for the party to not listen to those voters."

Zoom out: Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) struck a similar tone in a Sunday interview on ABC News' "This Week," saying, "The Democratic Party needs to be honest."

• Khanna continued, "In light of what has come out, it is painfully obvious President Biden should not have run." He said his party "played too much deference to party leaders, to the old guard, to the advisers" and needed to be "more independent."
• But the California Democrat also emphasized that Biden has led a "remarkable life" and still has "a lot to be proud of in his record," citing the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS Act and the nation's COVID-19 recovery.
• However, he added, "That doesn't mean, though, that he made the right decision to seek a second term."

Yes, but: Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.), who was seen as a critical Biden ally during the 2020 campaign, said on CNN's "State of the Union" that he "never saw anything" that made him think "that Joe Biden was not able to do the job."

• He did say that Biden's panic-inducing performance in last year's debate against Trump made him concerned, but he also pointed to Biden's "taxing" schedule and preparation ahead of the showdown.

Flashback: Biden dropped out of the 2024 race in July, handing the baton to then-Vice President Kamala Harris for a sprint to November. That decision, Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said Sunday, was "very difficult."

• "It's hard to convince somebody to give up their car keys," Kaine said on "Fox News Sunday." "Joe Biden made the decision to give up the office of the presidency, the most powerful office in the world."
• But he contended his constituents are asking him about "economic chaos," President Trump's tariffs and protecting Medicaid — not to "rethink" what Biden did in 2024.

The bottom line: As Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) said on CBS News' "Face the Nation," "hindsight is 20/20."

Go deeper: Scoop: Democrats' oldest lawmakers are mostly running again

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said in a Sunday interview that the pending transfer of a Qatari luxury jet "detracts from" what he saw as President Trump's "largely successful" Middle East trip and "gives the appearance of a conflict of interest."

Why it matters: Paul, who has already cautioned against the possible gift to Trump, is one of a group of Republicans who have raised legal, ethical and national security concerns over the prospect of the administration accepting a jet worth roughly $400 million to potentially serve as Air Force One.

• Trump has contended it would be "stupid" not to accept the jet. He characterized the situation as the Department of Defense "getting a GIFT, FREE OF CHARGE."
• White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt has emphasized that gifts from foreign governments are "always accepted in full compliance with all applicable laws."

Driving the news: Paul said on ABC's "This Week" that there is "probably a perfectly legal way" the plane could be accepted, but added that he thinks the discussion has "raised more questions than I think it's worth."

• Paul, who said he has in the past pushed to block arms sales to Qatar and Saudi Arabia over alleged human rights abuses, contended, "Could it color the perception of the administration if they have a $400 million plane to be more in favor of these things? Perhaps."
• Paul continued, "It at least gives the appearance of a conflict of interest. I don't think it's worth the headache."

Yes, but: White House envoy Steve Witkoff said on "This Week" the transaction is "perfectly legal," pointing to White House and DOJ assessments.

• "It is a perfectly legal government-to-government, Department of Defense to Department of Defense transaction," he said.
• "They decided to donate something because of all the wonderful things that we've done for them in the past."

Context: Beyond constitutional questions, scholars told Axios, the gift poses possible ethical dilemmas.

• The Trump family company's business interests in the region — including the development of a Trump-named golf club in Qatar — were scrutinized while the president toured the Gulf last week.

The bottom line: The jet, if accepted, would smash presidential gift records.

Go deeper: Scoop: Dem seeks probe into reports Qatar plans to gift plane to Trump