In one 48-minute speech, President Trump scrambled every American's budget, every U.S. company's balance sheet and every global alliance.

• Tariffs, a sometimes obscure economic tool, have massive power, especially when enacted this expansively.

Why it matters: Think fundamental re-ordering of the economy. Americans are staring down a disruption to their standard of living. Companies are about to find out how bad bad can get. The ripple effects may be felt for years to come.

Zoom out: Trump is right that plenty of countries engage in unfair trade practices, and that globalization has hollowed out key parts of America's industrial base, Axios' Zachary Basu reports.

• But this historic tariff barrage isn't about targeted leverage or negotiated fixes. It's about unwinding decades of perceived injustices through blunt force — even against uninhabited islands and impoverished enclaves, incapable of "victimizing" the U.S.
• Trump believes the American people share his grievances, and he's willing to radically remake the global economic order, no matter the cost.

Reality check: That cost will likely be steep.

• Trump is inviting American factories to rise up and fill the demand for goods that consumers and companies get from other countries — but factories can't do that overnight, if at all.
• One big reason the U.S. has trade deficits is that we spent decades becoming a services economy, with the economic might to make our goods more cheaply elsewhere and buy lots of them.
• In the 1970s, a quarter of Americans worked in manufacturing. Now, less than 10% do. Recruiting and training a manufacturing workforce will take time and money.

Case in point: While America has existing infrastructure for some types of manufacturing, like cars, it's not that simple for every product. The U.S. has lost the ability to make some things as its economy has transitioned away from manufacturing.

• "Things like magnets, which are really critical for batteries and other core electronic technologies. We've really lost the capacity to build in the U.S.," Ben Armstrong at MIT's Industrial Performance Center told Marketplace.
• Bringing that back takes years, plus big investments from the government and companies.

The stakes: That means, at least in the short-term, everything from clothes to coffee to iPhones to wine will likely get more expensive.

• Companies are expecting to take a hit, and asking themselves whether they can afford to absorb increased costs, or if they have to pass them along to a potentially unwilling consumer.
• The latest jobs report was solid, but there are plenty of dark economic clouds, and Wall Street says recession odds are rising quickly.

What to watch: Whether the Trump administration does anything to offset the pain.

• Tariffs will bring in some money themselves (the administration says up to $600 billion a year, which would cover about a third of the U.S. budget deficit).
• There's been speculation he could bail out farmers, as he did during his first term.
• And Trump still wants to cut taxes —  not just extending his 2017 cuts, but new reductions on things like overtime and tips.

But Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said Friday that bigger-than-expected tariffs will translate into higher inflation and slower economic growth — and that the higher inflation could be persistent, not temporary, Axios' Neil Irwin reports.

• He didn't use the dreaded s-word — stagflation — but it's the thing economists fear most on the horizon.

President Trump's tariff revolution is rooted in a simple thesis: America has been humiliated and exploited by foreign nations for decades, and only he has the guts to make them pay.

Why it matters: Trump's personal victim complex has powered much of its political career. Now it's going global — with the entire world, not just Trump's domestic enemies, feeling the weight of retribution.

The big picture: Never mind that the U.S. boasts the world's largest economy, most powerful military, record household wealth, and historically low unemployment.

• Trump has been remarkably consistent in casting America as a global pushover, including in a 1988 interview with Oprah that resurfaced in the wake of this week's tariff announcement.
• "For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped, and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike," Trump declared in his "Liberation Day" speech Wednesday. "But now it's our turn to prosper."

Zoom in: From uninhabited islands to impoverished enclaves, no country is too small, too irrelevant, or too loyal to escape the wrath of a president who believes America has been cheated for decades.

• That includes Israel, where officials were shocked to face a 17% reciprocal tariff despite removing their own tariffs on the U.S. a day prior.
• It includes Lesotho, a tiny African nation where most people are too poor to import American goods, and which is now facing an existential crisis because of Trump's 50% tariff.
• It even includes the volcanic Australian territory of Heard Island and McDonald Islands, whose population of mostly penguins was punished with a 10% tariff.

Zoom out: Trump is right that plenty of countries engage in unfair trade practices, and that globalization has hollowed out key parts of America's industrial base.

• China, the world's second-largest economy, has a long record of trade abuses: IP theft, forced technology transfers, state subsidies and market access restrictions for foreign companies.
• The European Union doesn't cheat the way China does, but it protects its own through generous agricultural subsidies and strict regulatory standards that often double as trade barriers.

But Trump's historic tariff barrage isn't about targeted leverage or negotiated fixes.

• It's about unwinding decades of perceived injustices through blunt force — even against countries incapable of "victimizing" the U.S.
• Trump believes the American people share his grievances, and he's willing to radically remake the global economic order, no matter the cost.

Between the lines: Victimhood — real and imagined — has always been central to Trump's political identity.

• His 2024 presidential campaign was fueled by grievances, beginning with the lie that the 2020 election was rigged against him.
• He's cast every investigation and indictment as a "witch hunt," from Russia to Signalgate.
• He survived an assassination attempt, and used it to turbocharge the persecution narrative that underpins his brand.

"They always said nobody got treated worse than Lincoln," Trump publicly mused in 2020 and many times after.

• "I believe I am treated worse."

When everything gets more expensive everywhere because of tariffs, that starts a cycle for businesses, too — one that might end with layoffs, bankruptcies, and higher prices for the survivors' customers.

Why it matters: The cycle is just starting now, but the pain is immediate.

• From clothing retailers who get all of their production from heavily tariffed Asian countries, to bakers whose pastries depend on newly levied imported vanilla, to the tech companies whose batteries need the minerals China just cut off in retaliation, this weekend will be a scramble to figure out how to survive the new world order.

The big picture: The stock market is not the economy, but if you want a decent proxy for Main Street businesses, look at the Russell 2000, a broad measure of the stock market's small companies across industries.

• It's down almost 20% this year alone.
• That in and of itself doesn't make a business turn the lights off, but it says something about public confidence in their prospects.
• "The market is like a real time poll ... this is going to impact all businesses in one way or another undoubtedly," Ken Mahoney of Mahoney Asset Management wrote Friday.

Zoom out: The early signs are everywhere, large and small.

• Electronics trade group IPC estimates the cost of critical components coming from overseas will rise 30% to 50%. Even if you're already manufacturing domestically, the parts you need from somewhere will get expensive, quickly.
• Automaker Stellantis paused production at multiple factories and laid off hundreds of people.
• Irrigation company Lindsay Corp. said the tariffs would increase its cost of goods, which it would pass through to customers. Those customers are farmers, who are now getting squeezed by foreign retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods.
• It's only April, but already Christmas is getting complicated, too. Forty-eight hours after announcing a pre-order date for its new video game console, Nintendo had to cancel it. Turns out there's now massive tariffs on the countries where it's manufactured.

The bottom line: Businesses need to plan. In this environment, they can't.

• Meanwhile, their costs will keep rising and their customers will keep pulling back.

Let's go back to basics. What is a tariff, what role do they play in the economy, and how have they been applied, both historically and now?

The big picture: Tariffs were once the primary way the United States collected tax revenue, but over time elected leaders and economists alike have rejected them for their many downsides.

• President Trump is seeking to reverse that long tide.

The basics: A tariff is a tax on imported goods. When a ship full of bananas or T-shirts or Toyotas arrives at a U.S. port, part of the paperwork for crossing the border is paying the applicable tariff, also known as an import duty.

• In recent years, those taxes have been relatively low — down to 1.5% in 2017, after decades of bipartisan efforts to craft global trade deals.
• President Trump then pushed those upward to around 3% in his previous term (which President Biden mostly maintained).
• The policies announced so far in Trump's current term are on track to push the average tariff to 22.5%, per the Yale Budget Lab.

Flashback: From the colonial era through the early 1900s, tariffs were the predominant source of the federal government's revenue.

• Taxes on imports were relatively easy to enforce even in the days before computers, Social Security numbers, and the like. When a ship arrived at a port, customs officers could inspect the goods, charge the appropriate tariff, and ensure tax compliance.
• The Constitution limited the federal government's taxing authority, so that a modern income tax was not legally permissible until the enactment of the 16th Amendment in 1913.
• Politicians sought to protect domestic industry from European competition as it matured. (There are echoes in how Japan and South Korea used protectionist policies in the latter half of the 20th century to allow their countries to catch up to world leaders).

Yes, but: This reliance on tariffs had deep-seated problems, which is why their use has been mostly in retreat over the last century.

• They disadvantaged agricultural interests and other U.S. exporters, as other countries put in place corresponding barriers to trade.
• The tax burden disproportionately fell on lower-income people, who spend a bigger share of their money on basics than the rich.
• They didn't raise nearly enough money to pay for a modern government, with a large military, social welfare programs like Social Security and Medicare, and the like.
• At the heyday of America's tariff-centric era, they raised revenue around 1.1% of GDP. Government spending is now around 23% of GDP.

Moreover, they distorted economic activity. Major U.S. industries spent more effort trying to lobby for preferential treatment via tariffs than they did building great products that could compete on the world stage.

• When the world economy stumbled in 1930, nations rushed to implement tariffs in hopes of bolstering domestic industry, particularly the Smoot-Hawley Act in the U.S. Mainstream economists view this cascade of protectionism as a key part of why that episode became the Great Depression.
• Based on those lessons, and as part of a broader effort to knit together the economies of the world's democracies in hopes of ensuring lasting peace, the U.S. and other advanced nations spent the postwar era gradually removing tariffs and other trade barriers.

Reality check: Even in the heyday of free trade enthusiasm, tariffs did not move to zero.

• In some cases, it's a simple matter of realpolitik, such as when President Bush raised steel tariffs in 2002 to try to bolster support in steel-producing states.
• Agricultural interests exert major political sway and have historically secured high tariffs on imported foods including dairy and sugar.
• There are cases for limited tariffs that even pro-trade economists can live with, such as protecting and nurturing domestic industries seen as important for national security.

Zoom out: In his first term, Trump used provisions of trade laws that allow a president unilateral authority to implement tariffs on specific countries and products on national security grounds, or in retaliation for unfair practices.

• Those came with careful legal limitations and a process for companies to seek exclusions — and their total scale wasn't enough to have much effect on the overall U.S. economy
• This time is different. Trump is implementing tariffs on a scale an order of magnitude higher, on every country on earth and nearly all goods, and by invoking an emergency authority never used for this purpose.

The bottom line: If the new tariffs announced this week stand, America's average tariff burden will be higher than nearly any living human has seen— higher than they were in the Smoot-Hawley era and roughly at 1909 levels.

• That's why markets have reacted so furiously to the president's announcements.

The Senate approved a budget resolution early Saturday morning following a grueling overnight session with forced votes on more than 20 amendments.

Why it matters: It's an important step for Congressional Republicans seeking to pass President Trump's ambitious agenda on taxes, energy and the border. But the hard part is still to come.

• The resolution passed by a vote of 51-48. Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Susan Collins (R-Me.) voted against it, along with Democrats.
• Now it’s in the hands of House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.).

Between the lines: The reconciliation process allows the Senate to skirt the filibuster to pass budget-related measures.

• It also allows Senate Democrats to make the process miserable through unlimited amendment votes.
• The so-called vote-a-rama began Friday evening and lasted until after 2am on Saturday morning, with Democrats forcing Republicans to take tough votes on everything from tariffs to Medicaid cuts.

Zoom in: The budget resolution would raise the debt ceiling by up to $5 trillion.

• It would make Trump's 2017 tax cuts permanent. It does so by relying on a current policy baseline, an accounting maneuver that zeroes out the otherwise $4 trillion cost.
• Some Republicans have been wary of the move, concerned that it could ultimately get rejected by the Senate parliamentarian, who serves as the chamber's rule-keeper.
• The resolution includes an extra $1.5 trillion for other tax priorities, such as Trump's promised "no tax on tips." It provides $175 billion for the border and $150 for defense.

What to watch: One major fight to come will be over how to pay for the new spending, with conservatives — and DOGE — pushing for serious cuts.

• The resolution instructs Senate committees to find a minimum of $4 billion in savings. The House's version set the minimum at $1.5 trillion.
• Some Republicans will be pushing for even more than $1.5 trillion in cuts.
• At the same time, there is bipartisan concern that such levels of spending reductions will require significant cuts to Medicaid.

The price of Mega Millions tickets more than doubles starting Saturday as a new version of the game is rolled out.

Why it matters: U.S. lottery sales are big money as Americans play in hopes of winning a life-changing jackpot.

• Players spent more than $113 billion on lottery products in the 2024 fiscal year, according to the North American Association of State & Provincial Lotteries.

When is Mega Millions' price increase?

State of play: Mega Millions ticket prices increase from $2 to $5 starting Saturday.

• The April 4 drawing is the final Mega Millions drawing before the overhaul.
• The $5 tickets will come with a "built-in random multiplier."

Flashback: It's the second time prices have been hiked since Mega Millions tickets debuted more than 20 years ago.

Mega Millions drawing time, how to watch

Mega Millions drawings are held in Atlanta at 11pm ET on Tuesdays and Fridays.

• The drawings are posted on the Mega Millions YouTube page.

Mega Millions changes debut with April 8 drawing

What we're watching: The April 8 drawing is the first with the new prize structure and ticket prices.

• Mega Millions says changes include "bigger prizes at every non-jackpot prize tier, better odds to win the jackpot" and a multiplier "that will increase all non-jackpot prizes by 2X-10X."
• The new game has 24 Mega Balls instead of 25.

New Mega Millions jackpot

The starting jackpot will reset to $50 million following a jackpot win instead of resetting at $20 million.

• Jackpots are expected to grow faster and get to higher amounts more frequently in the new game.
• The Mega Millions Consortium said it estimates that the average jackpot win in the new game will be more than $800 million versus around $450 million in the old game.

Between the lines: The April 4 drawing had an estimated jackpot of $43 million with a cash option of $20.5 million, per the lottery.

• Mega Millions said unless someone wins the jackpot with Friday's drawing, "the jackpot from the current game will roll into the new game and continue to grow with ticket sales from the new game."

Did anybody win Mega Millions Friday?

The latest: No ticket matched all five numbers and the Mega Ball Friday.

• The estimated jackpot for April 8 is $54 million with a cash option of $25.7 million, the Mega Millions website said Saturday.

Mega Millions odds

The odds of winning the grand-prize jackpot go from astronomical (1 in 303 million) to slightly less astronomical (1 in 290 million) with the removal of one gold Mega Ball from the game.

• Removing the one gold Mega Ball from the game also improves the overall odds to win any prize from 1 in 24 to 1 in 23.

Mega Millions prize chart

By the numbers: Here are the prize amounts for matching numbers with and without the Mega Ball. Amounts vary because of the multiplier for all prizes except the jackpot (See the chart here):

• Mega Ball: $10, $15, $20, $25 or $50 — up from $2.
• One number and Mega Ball: $14, $21, $28, $35 or $70 — up from $4.
• Two numbers and Mega Ball: $20, $30, $40, $50 or $100 — up from $10.
• Three numbers: $20, $30, $40, $50 or $100 — up from $10.
• Three numbers plus Mega Ball: $400, $600, $800, $1,000 or $2,000 — up from $200.
• Four numbers: $1,000, $1,500, $2,000, $2,500 or $5,000 — up from $500.
• Four numbers plus Mega Ball: $20,000, $30,000, $40,000, $50,000 or $100,000 — up from $10,000.
• Five numbers: $2 million, $3 million, $4 million, $5 million or $10 million — up from $1 million.
• Five numbers plus Mega Ball: Jackpot.

What states sell Mega Millions tickets?

Mega Millions tickets are sold in 45 states, Washington, D.C., and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with drawings held each Tuesday and Friday.

• Cutoff times to buy tickets vary by state because tickets are sold by individual lotteries.
• Alabama, Alaska, Hawaii, Nevada and Utah do not participate in the lottery.

More from Axios:

• We tried Popeyes' new pickle menu and it's the real dill
• Injuries from recalled products reach 8-year high
• Exclusive: Starbucks shift entices more customers to "sit and stay"

Editor's note: This story was updated with the estimated jackpot for the April 8 drawing after nobody won the jackpot Friday.

The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency is looking to push out as much as a third of the agency's total headcount, in addition to contract personnel from a major threat hunting team, according to three sources familiar with the matter.

Why it matters: The cuts are likely to impact "every single part of the agency," one of those sources told Axios — dealing a huge blow to the country's cybersecurity posture following earlier rounds of layoffs and contract cuts.

Zoom in: CISA is expected to start reducing its workforce through a second "Fork in the Road" email, two sources told Axios.

• That email could go out as soon as this weekend, but the specifics of the cuts keep changing, the sources said.
• Depending on how many people take the offer, the agency could then send out "reduction in force" notices at a later, unspecified date, the sources added.
• CBS reports that the agency plans to cut as many as 1,300 employees.

Another industry source told Axios that the cuts include 75 contract personnel who work on CISA's threat hunting operations — which searches for signs of vulnerabilities or breaches on civilian federal networks.

• Those personnel worked on threat hunt contracts with Nightwing, a cyber company that spun out of Raytheon last year, and technology services vendor Peraton.
• Most federal agencies don't have the budget or manpower to set up their own threat hunt teams, and CISA's work typically helped identify hacking campaigns targeting the whole of government.
• CISA declined to comment.

Catch up quick: This is the latest hit to the nation's cyber defense agency during the second Trump administration.

• The agency has cut funding to several election security efforts, spurring concerns among state and local election officials who relied on the agency for threat intelligence about adversaries targeting their elections.
• CISA said last month that it was terminating contracts "where the agency has been able to find efficiencies and eliminate duplication of effort," including in its red team operations.
• And last month, CISA fired — and then had to reinstate — more than 130 probationary employees.

The intrigue: The rumored cuts are already raising alarm bells on Capitol Hill.

• Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), the ranking member of the House Homeland Security Committee's cyber subcommittee, has already requested a briefing on CISA's workforce changes, spokesperson Cassie Baloue told Axios in a statement.
• Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), ranking member of the House Homeland Security Committee, said in a statement to Axios that he is aware of the rumored plans and called the moves "idiotic" and "irrational."
• "Trump is intent to do to our security the same as what he's doing to the economy — tank it," Thompson said.
• Even before rumors of the latest agency cuts started swirling, Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.), chair of the House Homeland Security Committee's cyber subcommittee, said during an event in D.C. this week that he was "not thrilled" with some of the agency's previous firings.

What to watch: Congress has not yet scheduled a nomination hearing for Sean Plankey, Trump's pick to run the agency.

Go deeper: Federal cyber teams overwhelmed amid workforce disruptions

President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on goods imported to the U.S., with potentially devastating impacts, while his administration fought aspects of his immigration agenda in court.

Here's our recap of major developments:

Trump ushers in "Liberation Day" tariffs

Trump declared a national emergency under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and introduced a 10% baseline tariff on all imports into the U.S. on Wednesday.

• He also announced higher reciprocal tariffs on goods from several countries, including those in Europe (20%), Japan (24%), Canada (25%) and China (34%) — Russia exempted.
• If they hold, the president's tariffs, unveiled on what he dubbed "Liberation Day," could cause a global recession, "the third such economic earthquake in 17 years," Axios' Felix Salmon writes.
• Canada retaliated with a 25% tariff on some U.S. vehicle imports. Stocks on Thursday plunged, their worst day since March 2020. "It's the end of the world's economic order as we know it," Axios' Courtenay Brown and Neil Irwin headlined.

The justification: Other countries need to "stop picking on us," in Commerce secretary Howard Lutnick's words to CNBC Thursday.

Salmon describes it this way: America, a "large, rich country" has a sweet tooth, and Madagascar "a small, poor country" has the vanilla. "There's therefore a natural trade to be made."

• Madagascar was hit with a 47% tariff.

Go deeper: This is why you can't have nice things in a trade war

Trump-era DOJ mistakenly deports Salvadoran man

The Trump administration admitted on Monday it made an "administrative error" leading to the mistaken deportation of a Salvadoran man who was living legally in Maryland.

• A judge on Friday ordered Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia's return by Monday.
• The deportation, uncovered by The Atlantic, underscores ongoing missteps in the administration's aggressive immigration push, which has relied on "legally fraught deportation drives," Axios' Russell Contreras writes.

Case in point: U.S. District Judge James Boasberg, suggesting contempt proceedings might be next, said on Thursday there is a "fair likelihood" the administration violated his earlier order and allowed flights to continue deporting migrants to El Salvador.

• Trump appealed the underlying decision to the U.S. Supreme Court in March.

Other judges:

• Denied Monday the Trump administration's request to stall a lower court's order halting a ban on transgender individuals in the military. Go deeper.
• Blocked DOGE from accessing sensitive Social Security data Tuesday. Go deeper.
• Ruled on Monday Alabama cannot prosecute doctors and others who help patients obtain out-of-state abortion care. Go deeper.
• Narrowed an order Tuesday to reinstate thousands of fired federal workers so that it only applies to 19 states and the District of Columbia. Go deeper.

Trump fights TikTok ban

The president said on Friday he plans to delay a TikTok ban from going into effect on Saturday despite no change in the company's ownership.

• A recent law requires the app's Chinese owner ByteDance to sell the company to avoid the ban. It follows bipartisan recognition of national security risks posed by the app's ties to China.

Go deeper: Who might buy TikTok as ban looms

Elon Musk's work could be ending, Trump clues

Trump hinted billionaire Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk's work with the government could end soon.

• He's employed as a special government employee under the Trump administration and therefore has a 130-day work limit for a year's time.
• "He's got a big company to run ... At some point he's going to be going back," Trump said on Monday. "He wants to. I'd keep him as long as I could keep him."
• Restructuring from the Musk-led DOGE has meant widespread layoffs of government employees, including some 10,000 staff members from the Department of Health and Human Services, and protests in response.

Musk's favorability has dropped, as has his first-quarter Tesla vehicle deliveries. Go deeper.

More from Axios:

• Protests force rescheduling of Saturday White House tours
• Tracking US allies that have tweaked advisories for trans travelers
• House Republican plans bill to let Congress block Trump tariffs
• SCOTUS allows Trump to move ahead with cuts to teacher training grants

A House Republican is planning to introduce legislation that would give Congress the power to block tariffs imposed by the president.

Why it matters: It's a rare break with President Trump from a Republican lawmaker as markets continue to tumble in response to the White House's sweeping new tariffs.

What we're hearing: Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) confirmed to Axios that he is crafting a companion to the Trade Review Act of 2025 introduced by Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Maria Cantwell's (D-Wash.)

• The legislation would require the president to notify Congress of any new tariffs within 48 hours with the administration's reasoning and an analysis of their economic impacts.
• Congress would then have to pass a resolution of approval within 60 days or the tariffs would expire. Lawmakers could also pass a resolution of disapproval at any time to kill the tariffs.
• Bacon's plans were first reported by Politico.

Reality check: With Republicans in control of both the House and Senate, neither bill is likely to get a vote.

• Trump could also veto the legislation, meaning Congress would effectively need a two-thirds majority in each chamber to force it into becoming law.

What we're watching: House Democrats are planning to try to force a vote on ending the national emergency upon which Trump's new tariffs are based.

• Such a vote could put Republicans like Bacon — whose constituents are being squeezed by the tariffs with little economic upside — in a difficult position.
• The Senate voted this week on a similar measure to block Trump's tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, in which four Republicans joined with Democrats to provide the necessary votes for it to pass.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is planning to visit the White House on Monday, four sources with knowledge tell Axios.

Why it matters: If the visit takes place as planned, Netanyahu will be the first foreign leader to meet President Trump in person to try to negotiate a deal to remove Trump's tariffs. The leaders are also expected to discuss the Iran nuclear crisis and the war in Gaza.

• To visit this week, however, Netanyahu would have to ask the judges in his corruption trial to cancel planned hearings during which he was expected to continue his testimony.
• The sources said the plan could still change, in large part for that reason.

Driving the news: Israel tried to avoid the tariffs Trump imposed on nearly every country in the world by announcing it would preemptively lift all tariffs on U.S. products. It didn't work.

• The 17% rate Trump set for Israel was based on the significant U.S. bilateral trade deficit.

Behind the scenes: Trump called Netanyahu and Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Thursday while the Israeli prime minister was visiting Budapest.

• The call was prompted by Hungary's decision to withdraw from the International Criminal Court (ICC), but Netanyahu also raised the newly announced tariffs.
• Trump suggested Netanyahu come to the White House to discuss the matter, without setting a clear date. Several hours later, Trump told reporters on Air Force One that Netanyahu would be visiting Washington soon, "maybe even next week."
• Netanyahu and his team were surprised by that remark, as were some of Trump's aides.

Initially, U.S. and Israeli officials had expected the visit to take place later in April, possibly during Passover week, which starts on April 14.

• But during discussions between the White House and Netanyahu's office on Friday, the idea of visiting sooner began to take shape, the four sources said.
• The White House and the Israeli Prime Minister's Office didn't immediately respond to requests for a comment.

The big picture: Iran and Gaza are expected to be on the agenda, in addition to tariffs.

• Netanyahu thinks the chances of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal are extremely low and wants to reach an understanding with Trump about striking Iran's nuclear facilities when diplomacy fails, a senior Israeli official said.
• Trump and Netanyahu will also likely discuss the stalled efforts to reach a new Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal.

Go deeper: Trump to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE

The Supreme Court on Friday sided with the Trump administration, allowing it to withhold federal education grants for teacher training while the case proceeds at a lower court.

Why it matters: The decision marks a Supreme Court victory for President Trump as he slashes federal spending with the help of Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency.

• Chief Justice John Roberts voted with the court's three dissenting liberal justices in the 5-4 decision.

Catch up quick: The Trump administration on March 26 asked the Supreme Court to pause a District of Massachusetts order to reinstate millions in federal education grants.

• The Department of Education terminated about $65 million, or 104 professional development grants, that it found at odds with the administration's anti-diversity, equity and inclusion policies.

State of play: The Trump administration has asked the Supreme Court to intervene in several cases as lower courts block Trump's policies at a particularly high rate.

• In March, the high court refused to halt a lower court's ruling that required the administration to unfreeze about $1.9 billion in foreign aid payments.

What they're saying: "If respondents ultimately prevail, they can recover any wrongfully withheld funds through suit in an appropriate forum," the majority wrote on Friday.

• "And if respondents instead decline to keep the programs operating, then any ensuing irreparable harm would be of their own making."

Zoom in: The Massachusetts restraining order called for the government to pay out its obligations, but the Supreme Court majority said the government is likely to prove that the District Court lacked the jurisdiction to order payments.

The other side: "Reinstating the challenged grant-termination policy will inflict significant harm on grantees — a fact that the Government barely contests," Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson wrote in a dissent that was joined by Justice Sonia Sotomayor.

• "Worse still, the Government does not even deign to defend the lawfulness of its actions."

Go deeper: Trump administration asks SCOTUS to allow teaching grant cuts

NOAA has averted the early cancellation of an Amazon Web Services contract that would have caused a slew of agency websites to go dark beginning at midnight, sources told Axios.

Why it matters: The outages mainly would have affected NOAA's research division, and would have made numerous websites and data sets inaccessible to the public.

Zoom in: Instead of ending at midnight, the contract will now expire on July 31, allowing the agency more time to figure out a different cloud-computing solution, said the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

• A social media outcry presented headwinds to the proposed sudden change.
• Among those protesting was NBC "Today" host Al Roker, who tweeted to his more than 2 million followers: "This is bonkers!! These are the real world impacts of Federal government cuts."

Driving the news: The Commerce Department is requiring NOAA — and possibly all department agencies — to cut its IT budget by 50% across the board.

• This is resulting in cloud services contracts being cut — and, potentially more significantly, agency networks that transmit weather and climate information.
• Some of the websites that were slated to go down included the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), the Climate Program Office, the home website of NOAA research and the Earth Prediction Innovation Center, which maintains a cloud-based weather forecasting system developed as a public-private partnership.
• An NSSL outage may have affected some programs, such as the Hazardous Weather Testbed, that the National Weather Service uses for severe weather forecasting.

Bloomberg first reported the impending NOAA IT outages, and Axios independently confirmed them.

NOAA operates complex computer models for weather forecasting and climate change studies, most of which run on supercomputers.

• It also must consistently keep its weather data flowing to the public to provide accurate, life-saving severe weather warnings.

The intrigue: Some climate data may have gone dark Saturday morning as well. But the National Centers for Environmental Information, the U.S. clearinghouse for global climate data, wouldn't have been affected, sources said.

• In addition, certain NOAA labs could have seen their websites go down early Saturday.
• NOAA is facing the prospect of another wave of staffing cuts following the loss of about 800 probationary employees in late February, as well as a new round of early retirements.
• Already, some Weather Service forecast offices have cut back on some of their services, including weather balloon launches that provide key data for computer models.

The other side: The Commerce Department didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

What's next: Additional contracts for IT services are due to be renewed or canceled in coming days, including ones that if terminated, may have a direct impact on NOAA's weather communication systems.

• Already, the termination of another contract has stopped the agency from automatically translating its audio forecasts and warnings into Spanish.
• As Axios reported, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick must approve any contract or contract extension that totals at or about $100,000, which is slowing NOAA to a crawl, along with research institutes it funds.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with new reporting to reflect the extension of the contract.

Go deeper:

Scoop: NOAA operations impaired by Commerce chief's approval mandate

Foreign arrivals into major U.S. airports tumbled in mid-to-late March compared to the same time last year, based on customs pass-through data.

Why it matters: The findings suggest a sudden reluctance to visit the U.S. isn't a purely Canadian phenomenon and should sound alarm bells for the country's $1 trillion-plus travel industry.

Driving the news: The number of foreigners passing through customs at the 10 busiest U.S. airports fell by over 20% year over year toward late March, based on a seven-day rolling average.

• A sight uptick followed, but the number was still down 18.4% as of March 28 versus the same time last year.
• Compare that to the number of U.S. citizens returning to the country, which was up nearly 14% by late March from the year earlier.

Context: Spring break may have played a role here, and many people book trips in advance with little flexibility.

Between the lines: Trade wars, a volatile economic and political climate and fears of detainment or harassment may be dissuading foreigners from visiting the U.S.

• Several American allies, including Canada, France, Germany and others, recently issued new travel warnings or advisories about U.S. travel.
• Some of those warnings focus on transgender and nonbinary travelers, following President Trump's recent order mandating that passports "accurately reflect the holder's sex," which his administration says is "not changeable."

What they're saying: "We're certainly starting to hear reports from international airlines about a softening of demand to the U.S.," Sean Cudahy, aviation reporter at The Points Guy, tells Axios via email.

• "Based on some of the route cuts and overall sentiment we're hearing from airlines, I wouldn't be surprised to see the arrivals rates for international travelers drop even further in the coming weeks."

Zoom in: Some of the "divergence" between foreign arrivals and U.S. returnees (charted above) "is likely attributable to tighter immigration policy," reads a March 31 Goldman Sachs note.

• "But the timing of the pullback in foreign arrivals — which emerged after tariff news escalated in both early February and early March — suggests that a more antagonistic policy stance by the Trump administration is contributing to a voluntary decline in visits."

Threat level: Goldman predicts a pullback in foreign tourism plus boycotts of American goods abroad will cause a "modest drag" on U.S. GDP of about 0.1%.

• "Although small, this headwind provides an additional reason why U.S. GDP growth will likely underperform consensus expectations in 2025," reads the note.

What's next: Goldman's note predates Trump's sweeping new tariffs issued Wednesday, which stand to uproot the global economic order in unpredictable and chaotic ways.

• If those tariffs hold, they could amplify any potential hit to U.S. travel businesses — but their impact remains difficult if not impossible to predict.

This has been a whipsaw week for understanding deal trends.

The big picture: On Tuesday we got first-quarter data, which showed a 15% increase in global M&A over Q1 2024 and a 14% decline for U.S. M&A.

• Digging a bit deeper, however, showed that both the global and U.S. markets got busier as the quarter progressed. Particularly when it came to large mergers.
• That means we entered Q2 with momentum. Not the raucous energy that many dealmakers expected after Trump got elected, but still up and to the right.

State of play: Wednesday may have changed everything.

• It's way too early to know if we're at the start of a protracted trade war that wrecks global economies, or what will prove to be a short-lived skirmish.
• Such tumult, however, becomes a brick wall for many companies planning long-term investments like acquisitions. Plus, sellers may hold back while their valuations plunge.
• It also creates major challenges for the booming AI market, and everything that springs from it, in terms of data center construction.
• Uncertainty is the only certainty. But there are degrees to that statement, and right now the global economy is running a fever.

What they're saying: "We've gone from animal spirits to animal hibernation," Sen. Dave McCormick (R-Pa.), former CEO of Bridgewater Associates, yesterday told CNBC.

• One Twitter user replied that it might be closer to "animal abuse."

The bottom line: A top bank exec told Axios in January that everyone would have a much better sense of the deal market during Milken than during Davos. That seems to be bearing out.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Friday he is pursuing agreements with other countries to ensure California is exempted from retaliatory tariffs stemming from President Trump's escalating trade war.

Why it matters: Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs spurred global blowback. Newsom — a reported 2028 presidential hopeful — is looking to insulate his state from the fallout.

Driving the news: "Donald Trump's tariffs do not represent all Americans," Newsom said in a video message Friday.

• California, whom he touted as "the tentpole of the U.S. economy," aims to maintain "stable trading relationships around the globe," he added.
• "I've directed my administration to look at new opportunities to expand trade and to remind our trading partners around the globe that California remains a stable partner."
• California is "ready to talk" with global trading partners, Newsom wrote on X.
• Referring to the state's economic might, Newsom added his state is "not scared to use our market power to fight back against the largest tax hike of our lifetime."

The other side: "Gavin Newsom should focus on out-of-control homelessness, crime, regulations, and unaffordability in California instead of trying his hand at international dealmaking," White House spokesperson Kush Desai told Axios Friday.

Zoom in: Newsom is particularly concerned with retaliatory measures from other countries could impact California's agricultural sector, especially its almond industry, according to Fox News, which first reported the news of the agreements.

• California is the world's fifth-largest economy and its agricultural sector is a key economic driver for the state.

The big picture: Trump on Wednesday announced a baseline 10% tariff on U.S. imports, with steeper reciprocal levies on goods from dozens of other nations.

• Business leaders and many economists said Trump's tariffs risked raising consumer prices and reigniting inflation.
• The U.S. stock market has spiraled in the wake of Trump's plan and was poised to fall further Friday after China announced it would levy a 34% tariff on imports from the U.S.

Go deeper: A third global recession in 20 years looms

Editor's note: This story was updated with additional developments.

Top congressional Democrats on Thursday night spoke out over reports that Gen. Timothy Haugh has been fired as National Security Agency director.

The big picture: The Washington Post first reported that Haugh had been removed from the NSA role and as U.S. Cyber Command chief, along with his civilian deputy Wendy Noble, citing a former U.S. official and two current ones.

• Several National Security Council members were fired earlier Thursday after conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer visited the Oval Office and pressed President Trump to oust specific NSC staffers, Axios first reported.

A spokesperson for the Pentagon told Axios they were aware of the reports but did not confirm their veracity.

• Representatives for the NSA declined to comment and referred Axios to the Pentagon. The White House did not immediately respond to Axios' requests for comment in the evening.

The latest: Loomer took to X early Friday to denounce Haugh and Noble and seemingly confirm their terminations.

• Loomer wrote that Haugh and Noble have been "disloyal to President Trump. That is why they have been fired."

What they're saying: Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, posted on Bluesky that Haugh had "served our country in uniform, with honor and distinction, for more than 30 years."

• At a time when the U.S. faces "unprecedented cyber threats, as the Salt Typhoon cyberattack from China has so clearly underscored, how does firing him make Americans any safer?" he wrote.
• "It is astonishing that President Trump would fire the nonpartisan leader of the NSA while still failing to hold any member of his team accountable for leaking classified information on Signal — even as he apparently takes staffing direction from a discredited conspiracy theorist in the Oval Office."

Meanwhile, House Intelligence Committee ranking member Jim Himes (D-Conn.), in a statement posted to X, said he's "deeply disturbed by the decision to remove" Haugh from the NSA.

• "I have known General Haugh to be an honest and forthright leader who followed the law and put national security first — I fear those are precisely the qualities that could lead to his firing in this Administration," he said.
• "The Intelligence Committee and the American people need an immediate explanation for this decision, which makes all of us less safe."

Background: Haugh's career includes more than 30 years with the U.S. Air Force, much of it spent in cyber and intelligence roles, according to his biography.

• Then-President Biden nominated Haugh in 2023 to serve as leader of Cyber Command and the NSA.
• Biden announced soon after that Noble would serve as deputy NSA director.
• Noble began her NSA career in 1987 as a cryptologic linguist and "has served in numerous analytic, technical, and leadership roles spanning target and language analysis, strategy development, joint collection programs, and liaison operations, serving at both NSA Headquarters and various overseas locations," per her bio.

Go deeper... Scoop: Multiple firings on Trump's National Security Council after Loomer visit

Editor's note: This story was updated with additional developments.

U.S. stocks finished their worst week in five years with a historic two-day rout, as the realities of President Trump's tariff plan left investors stunned and fearing what comes next.

Why it matters: As opposed to Trump's first term, when sharply negative market moves often influenced him to pull back policy, in the second Trump administration markets are on their own.

By the numbers: The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq both fell about 6%, while the small-cap benchmark Russell 2000 dropped around 4%.

• In percentage terms, it was the fifth-largest two-day decline for the S&P 500 in the index's history.
• The Russell closed in a bear market Thursday, down 20% from its recent highs, and the Nasdaq did the same Friday.
• Energy and financial stocks broadly led the decline.
• High-profile "Magnificent 7" names like Apple, Nvidia and Tesla fell as well; most of them are now down more than 20% this year.

Driving the news: China announced a major escalation of the trade war Friday morning, levying a 34% tariff on imports from the U.S. that will take effect on April 10.

• That news accelerated the overnight decline in stocks.
• It got worse when Fed chair Jerome Powell gave a speech warning of higher inflation and slower growth but also indicating the central bank was holding steady on interest rates, dashing any market hopes for relief.

What they're saying: "The tariffs have injected a level of uncertainty and volatility we haven't seen since the early days of the pandemic," Matt Burdett, head of equities at Thornburg Investment Management, said in a note.

• "Markets may actually be underreacting, especially if these rates turn out to be final, given the potential knock-on effects to global consumption and trade."

Go deeper: Why the dollar is doing what it's not supposed to do

Editor's note: This story was updated with closing prices.

The crypto world's most promising application is bursting into the financial mainstream — powered not by hype, but by regulation, political backing, and trillions in real-world transactions.

Why it matters: Memecoins, fraudsters and crypto volatility have overshadowed the quiet success of stablecoins — digital tokens designed to hold a steady value, typically pegged to the U.S. dollar.

• Stablecoins remain in a legal gray area in the U.S., but both chambers of Congress are racing to draft rules for what's become the most functional use case for blockchain technology worldwide.
• "We are going to keep the U.S. the dominant reserve currency in the world, and we will use stablecoins to do that," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent vowed at a White House summit last month.

The intrigue: The digital currency has support not just from the Trump administration but from the Trump family itself.

• Their crypto venture, World Liberty Financial, has announced plans to sell a stablecoin — drawing massive backlash from Democrats, who accuse the president of profiting from his office.
• Democrats who support passing stablecoin legislation fear the Trump family's conflicts could derail the bipartisan efforts to regulate and legitimize the fast-growing industry.

By the numbers: Global asset manager Ark Invest estimates that annual stabelcoin transaction volume hit $15.6 trillion in 2024 — basically on par with what the Visa Network reported for its fiscal 2024.

• More than $230 billion in assets have been dedicated to backing this class of tokens, up more than $100 billion since Trump won the 2024 election.

How it works: The most popular stablecoins are backed by dollar deposits and other highly liquid assets, ensuring that each token can be reliably redeemed for actual U.S. dollars — even during a bank run.

• Stablecoins started as liquidity for crypto traders, but they've caught on as a way for companies to manage global treasuries, pay workers around the world and conduct peer-to-peer transactions.
• There have been questions about the soundness of stablecoin reserves in the past, but it's become normal to release regular statements from accountants verifying their adequacy.
• Circle's stablecoin — the largest based in the U.S. — holds its reserves almost entirely at BlackRock, which pays it interest.

Between the lines: Stablecoins are highly profitable. Issuers pocket the interest on the assets backing the tokens — a lucrative spread in a high-rate environment.

• One major issuer reported $13 billion in profits for 2024.

State of play: After PayPal became the first big brand to release a stablecoin, a wave of new issuers are following suit.

• A U.S. law will likely permit big banks to issue their own — alongside credit unions, financial firms and others.

What we're watching: The Senate Banking Committee has sent its stablecoin bill, GENIUS, to the floor.

• The House Financial Services Committee did the same Wednesday with its bill, the STABLE Act — setting the stage for crucial votes in both chambers of Congress.

White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller brought a one-two combo to his old Senate stomping grounds on Thursday, according to Senate aides.

Why it matters: With the market melting down, the White House wants to stay on offense on judges and ensure the GOP presents a united front on tariffs.

• Miller is essentially calling for more cavalry for President Trump's attacks on the judiciary, which has blocked some of the president's boldest, and most controversial, moves.
• At the same time, he wants the Senate to extend Trump's 2017 tax cuts while also defending Trump's tariff-happy finger.

Between the lines: Expect an additional $6 trillion in tariff revenue over the next decade, Miller told GOP chiefs of staff on Thursday.

• That number was also offered by White House trade adviser Peter Navarro on "Fox News Sunday," and assumes the tariffs will be permanent.

Miller is enormously influential in the West Wing, but the former Senate staffer also has a feel for how to light (and put out) fires on Capitol Hill.

• He acknowledged to the group the legislative process can get bumpy and he understood their bosses were taking some heat on tariffs.
• Stocks were cratering while Miller spoke, on their way to their biggest one-day decline since March of 2020.
• But Miller told them to hold the line and trust the president.

Zoom in: He argued Trump's plan to lift burdensome regulations, plus extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act — along with another $6 trillion in new revenue from tariffs —would lead to an enduring manufacturing boom.

• Top White House officials promised senators on Monday they would show their math on how the president's agenda would lead to 3% growth and lower deficits, we scooped.
• Today, the White House provided their official analysis, which included estimates of an additional $4.1 trillion in revenue, relative to CBO's projection if the tax cuts expire.
• They didn't include the potential economic impact of Trump's aggressive tariffs.

The bottom line: Some Senate Republicans remain hopeful the tariffs will be temporary or are just a negotiating tool.

• The $6 trillion estimate, over 10 years, should destroy that optimism.

Editor's note: This story has been corrected to note that Miller said $6 trillion over ten years (not $600 billion.)

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Thursday touted the use of robotics in his pitch for an American "manufacturing renaissance."

The big picture: While President Trump's tariffs are meant to boost American manufacturing and jobs, U.S. manufacturers will likely hurt from these tariffs, at least in the short run. Whether they lead to more jobs in the long term remains an open question.

What he's saying: Lutnick made the case in several TV interviews this week that tariffs will bring jobs and factories back to the U.S., saying they'll utilize robotics to make American workers "more efficient."

• Speaking on CNBC, he said that with the use of robotics, factories are "going to see the greatest surge in training for what we call trade craft — teaching people how to be robotics, mechanics, engineers and electricians for high tech factories."
• On CNN, Lutnick said, "We use robotics here. It's cheaper than cheap labor overseas." He added, "The renaissance will be the greatest factories in the world, high-tech people. What are the jobs Americans are going to have? We are going to have mechanics who fix robotics."
• On Fox News' Hannity on Wednesday, Lutnick touted that "a high school-educated workforce is going to get trained to do robot mechanic," adding that it'll bring the "coolest" and "highest-paying jobs" to the U.S.

Between the lines: If the jobs are for repairing and maintaining robots to do the factory work, blue collar jobs likely won't be as plentiful.

Flashback: Former President Biden had also floated the use of robotics in his clean energy push, including for solar panel installation and wind turbines.

• But the interest in automation paired with a vow to create millions of jobs as part of the clean energy boom proved to be a difficult undertaking — and one that could take years to come to fruition.

Our thought bubble, via Axios' Emily Peck: American manufacturing is already quite advanced and has increased in productivity overall.

• That means fewer workers are needed. So while the industry has grown over the past decade, there hasn't been a proportionate increase in jobs.

Go deeper: Tariffs will squeeze manufacturers and jobs may not follow