U.S. and Iranian officials are using similar language to describe their primary objective for Saturday's high-stakes nuclear talks: determining whether the other side is serious or just stringing them along.

Why it matters: President Trump insists Iran must make a deal quickly or face potential military strikes. But Tehran doesn't trust Trump, who previously withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal, and two U.S. officials tell Axios they aren't yet sure what to expect from the Iranians.

What they're saying: "The main question we want answered from the Iranians is whether they have the political will to have a serious discussion so that we won't have to resort to the other alternative," one U.S. official said.

• The official added that Trump is prepared to make compromises to get a deal.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei is singing much the same tune. "We do not prejudge. We do not predict. We intend to assess the other side's intent and resolve this Saturday. We shall reflect and respond accordingly."
• He added that the U.S. should "value" the fact that Iran is "giving diplomacy a genuine chance" despite Trump's "confrontational hoopla."

Driving the news: Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff will lead the U.S. delegation, traveling to Oman for the talks from Russia, where he met President Vladimir Putin. The Iran talks were one of the issues discussed in that meeting.

• Witkoff is an internal advocate for diplomacy, while Iran hawks like national security adviser Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are more open to the military option.
• Witkoff will be joined by National Security Council senior director for the Middle East Eric Trager and State Department nuclear experts.

The other side: Iran's negotiating team is led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who has vast experience in nuclear negotiations and was a senior member of the Iranian team that negotiated the 2015 nuclear deal.

• He will arrive in Oman with two of his senior deputies who have also participated in previous rounds of negotiations.

The intrigue: Iran is considering proposing that the sides first negotiate an interim nuclear agreement to put more time on the clock for talks on a comprehensive deal.

• The White House insists the talks with Iran will be direct, while the Iranians have said they will be indirect — with the sides sitting in different rooms and exchanging messages through mediators.
• A source with knowledge of the issue told Axios the talks on Saturday are supposed to start in an indirect setting, and then likely move to direct engagement later in the day if the initial meeting is positive.

State of play: A U.S. official said Witkoff plans to reiterate to the Iranians the messages in Trump's letter to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — that Trump believes in peace and prefers a diplomatic deal, but will ensure Iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon or work with its proxies to destabilize the region.

• White House Press Secetary Karoline Leavitt put it more bluntly: "Iran has a choice to make - you can agree to president Trump's demands or there will be all hell to pay."

After lying low from cable TV in 2024, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is returning to the airwaves.

Why it matters: Signalgate and President Trump's tariffs have given Schumer a chance to show some fight after he infuriated the Democratic base last month by voting to avoid a government shutdown.

• 📺 Schumer appeared on CNN, MSNBC, ABC and NBC at least 10 times since early March to pummel Trump and make the case for himself as Senate Democratic leader.
• "I have the full support of my caucus. ... Democrats are united," Schumer said Tuesday on CNN.

Zoom in: Schumer's team has also increased the rate of his public press events on Capitol Hill over the last month, mainly press conferences bashing the Trump administration and GOP agenda.

• The on-again, off-again tariffs provoked enough GOP infighting to pull the spotlight away from Democratic infighting.
• "They're busy fighting with each other because their programs are so unpopular," Schumer gleefully said at a press conference on Tuesday.

Between the lines: When pressed about his leadership position, Schumer argues Democrats have united around their opposition to Trump.

• "If we keep united and keep our focus trained on Trump, we can certainly bring down his popularity and make those Republicans who vote with him pay that political price," Schumer said when asked about his leadership position on MSNBC last week.

Thirteen weeks in session, 213 votes, 55 confirmations, two vote-a-ramas and a final 2am vote — Senate Republicans could not be more ready for a two-week recess.

Why it matters: Republicans demanded that their new leader get the Senate working hard again. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) answered the call, but Republicans are feeling the effects of the Democratic opposition.

• Thune had to constantly haggle with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on vote times, and delays from Democrats have been particularly draining, Republicans told Axios.
• Senate staffers also had to stay nimble, needing to reschedule meetings or media appearances over the past few weeks.
• Tomorrow will mark the 100th day of the 119th Congress. Hopes for a Thursday afternoon fly-out were spoiled by Democratic holds on President Trump's nominee for chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Between the lines: Nobody wants to admit they're tired, but most GOP senators chuckled when Axios asked about the level of fatigue among their colleagues. A couple of senators threw each other under the bus.

• "Listening to our freshmen talk, I think this has been a rough stretch," Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) told Axios.
• "I think the older guys are getting tired," another senator told Axios, not wanting to be named.

What they're saying: "My sense is people are looking forward to spending some time at home," Hawley said.

• "I don't want to think like Washington. I want to make sure I think like home," Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) said. "So getting home is really important."
• "I think we've set, pretty much, records," Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) told Axios. He expects the Senate to "come back swinging again" but admitted that it will be good to "get away from each other and go back in the states."

The bottom line: "We absolutely signed up for this," said Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.). "I think it is a critical moment in time ... and we'll certainly work around the clock, which is exactly what we're doing."

• "It's definitely different than my first two years when we were in the minority and we weren't doing a lot of stuff," Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) said.
• "I've never been busier," Sen. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) said. "But I'm proud of what we've accomplished."
• Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) said that despite "working long hours," the enthusiasm for nominees and tax reform "mitigates any physical exhaustion some of our members might feel."

What's next: GOP leadership told senators to expect eight votes a day when they come back from recess, sources told Axios.

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has quietly installed William Ruger, a former Charles Koch Institute vice president and skeptic of military action against Iran, into a key position in her department, according to congressional officials.

Why it matters: Ruger's appointment to one of the most important jobs in the intelligence community had led to private concern and public praise among congressional Republicans, reflecting the deep divides in the party on key policy questions, from Iran to Ukraine to China.

• "Will is a solid choice by DNI Gabbard," Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) told Axios in a statement. "He has honorably served our country and brings a wealth of knowledge and experience to the table."
• "This is the kind of principled leadership we need more of in Washington," he said.
• "Donald Trump said no Koch people should serve and at some point he's going to realize that his administration has become littered with them," said a GOP congressional official.

A Gabbard spokesperson declined to comment.

Zoom out: Senate Republicans have outwardly accepted Trump's defense and intelligence nominees, and voted to confirm them.

• But below the surface, there are vicious battles over who will serve in positions that don't require Senate confirmation, but are hugely influential.

The latest flare-up stems from Gabbard's decision to make Ruger the deputy director of national intelligence for mission integration, a consequential job that includes a range of responsibilities, including preparing the president's intelligence briefing.

• He is listed as the "acting" director on one ODNI webpage, but on the official job description page, the "acting" is missing.
• Last month, Gabbard decided not to give the same job to Daniel Davis, a critic of Israel and skeptic of foreign interventions, after an uproar from pro-Israel advocates over his expected appointment.
• But since then, she has quietly given the position to Ruger, according to congressional officials.

Zoom in: Like Davis, Ruger has connections to both the Charles Koch Institute and Defense Priorities, think tanks that have been skeptical of military actions against Iran and take a restrained view on how much the U.S. should intervene abroad. .

• In January, Trump took to Truth Social to warn not to send "or recommend to us, people who worked with, or are endorsed by, Americans for No Prosperity (headed by Charles Koch)," he said, misnaming one of the Koch's groups. The post was broadly interpreted by congressional Republicans as a prohibition against officials affiliated with the Koch network.
• Ruger, a Navy reservist, Afghan war veteran and academic, was nominated by Trump to be his ambassador to Afghanistan in September of 2020, but the Senate ran out of time and he was never confirmed.

Between the lines: A frequent poster on X, Ruger has advocated for a more isolationist approach to global conflicts.

• In 2021, he called on President Biden "to continue with the promised withdrawal" of U.S. troops in Afghanistan in a New York Times op-ed.
• This summer, he was critical of advocates for regime change in Iran, saying on X, "These guys have learned nothing from last 25 years."

The bottom line: GOP divisions over Iran were highlighted during the confirmation process for Elbridge Colby, who was confirmed this week as Trump's under secretary for policy at the Defense Department by a vote of 54-45.

• Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) was the only Republican to vote against him.
• "Elbridge Colby's long public record suggests a willingness to discount the complexity of the challenges facing America," McConnell said in a statement.

The Pentagon removed a Greenland base commander on Thursday after she sent an email critical of Vice President JD Vance's comments about Denmark, multiple outlets reported.

Why it matters: The Pentagon said it would not tolerate officials who undermine President Trump's agenda.

• Col. Susannah Meyers was removed from her leadership post at Pituffik Space Base "for loss of confidence in her ability to lead," a Space Operations Command statement said.

Driving the news: "I do not presume to understand current politics, but what I do know is the concerns of the U.S. administration discussed by Vice President Vance on Friday are not reflective of Pituffik Space Base," Meyers wrote in the March 31 email, per Military.com.

• She said that as long as she led the base, all countries' flags would fly together.

What they're saying: "Actions to undermine the chain of command or to subvert President Trump's agenda will not be tolerated at the Department of Defense," Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said on X.

• Col. Shawn Lee will take on the role at Pituffik.
• "Commanders are expected to adhere to the highest standards of conduct, especially as it relates to remaining nonpartisan in the performance of their duties," the Space Force statement said.

Catch up quick: In his March visit, Vance claimed that Denmark failed to keep Greenland safe, and that Trump would make the island "much more secure" and economically stronger.

• Trump later said nothing was off the table in his desire to acquire Greenland, including "military force."

Go deeper:

• Trump doesn't rule out military force to acquire Greenland
• Vance's new Greenland pitch: Independence then partnership

To fight a trade war against China, most foreign policy experts would say that you need allies.

Why it matters: Over the past few months, the White House antagonized pretty much all its friends on the global stage, making it that much harder to carry out what is now a full-blown tariff battle with China.

The big picture: China is a formidable economic force, the second-largest economy in the world, with significant resources like a vast labor supply, manufacturing heft, a growing electric vehicle industry and expanding military might.

• "On critical metrics, China has already outmatched the United States," write the authors of a sobering new piece in Foreign Affairs.

Zoom in: The best shot the U.S. has at holding its economic edge is in forging partnerships, Kurt Campbell and Rush Doshi write: "China possesses scale, and the United States does not — at least not by itself."

• "Because its only viable path lies in coalition with others, Washington would be particularly unwise to go it alone in a complex global competition."

The intrigue: The authors, who both worked on foreign affairs in the Biden administration, wrote the piece before "Liberation Day."

• But we "kind of saw that coming," Doshi, now a professor of security studies at Georgetown University and director of the China Strategy Initiative at the Council of Foreign Relations, tells Axios.

Zoom in: Such a coalition would go beyond the traditional post-Cold War frame of the U.S. playing a protector role. This would be more about forging economic partnerships.

• "I'm talking about us all getting together with our allies, putting tariffs or regulatory barriers up together to protect our industries from China's massive export capacity," Doshi says.
• "Ideally the U.S. would lower barriers between its allies, to put market share together so that our companies have a bigger playing field."

But right now, U.S. allies have the tariffs of Damocles hanging over their heads, says Wendy Edelberg, a senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution.

• On Wednesday, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on his "reciprocal" tariffs, and it's not the kind of pause that refreshes.
• "It's not like other countries know for certain that they even have a reprieve," Edelberg says.

By the numbers: U.S. tariffs on China now average 134.7%, per a calculation from the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

• China's been retaliating, this morning raising tariffs on U.S. goods even more to 125%. It could end very badly, though many expect some kind of deal or postponement.
• "At current tariff levels, U.S. exports to China are no longer marketable," China's tariff commission said in a statement quoted this morning in the Wall Street Journal.
• "If the U.S. insists on playing the numbers game with tariffs, China will disregard it." The statement adds that China will "fight" if the U.S. persists in harming its interests.

Yes, but: "We can put America first and work with other countries at the same time," a White House official tells Axios. "The U.S. is not acting alone in acting on China's unfair trading practices."

• They note many countries have initiated anti-dumping World Trade Organization investigations against China, and that "even Russia is imposing higher duties on Chinese EV cars."

For the record: "President Trump is playing chess while the Chinese are playing checkers, to the detriment of their economy and their people," says Harrison Fields, a White House spokesperson.

Flashback: The trade war with China during the first Trump administration ended with an agreement. Among other things, China said it would buy $200 billion worth of American imports.

• That didn't happen. Partly, the coronavirus pandemic got in the way, but other factors were also at play.
• "Today the only undisputed 'historical' aspect of that agreement is its failure," Chad Bown wrote in a 2022 piece for the Peterson Institute.

Reality check: The current Chinese economy is in a bad place. Consumer prices declined for the second month in a row, per data out Wednesday, a worrying sign deflation might be setting in. Unemployment is rising.

• A trade war with its biggest foreign trading partner is only going to add to its woes.
• Still, China's leaders believe their country is better able to withstand the fight, Han Lin, the Asia Group China director in Shanghai, said on BBC Business Matters on Wednesday.

The bottom line: "They believe they could endure pain longer than the U.S. could. Of course, we'll see that thesis tested over the next several months."

China increased its tariff on U.S. goods to 125% on Friday, matching President Trump's levy, but said it won't go higher.

Why it matters: The tit-for-tat move extends a trade war impacting hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of goods — though the intention to cap the tariff may be a small opening to moderate tensions.

Catch up quick: The new Chinese levy goes into effect April 12 on about $144 billion of U.S. exports, primarily agricultural products like soybeans.

• It mostly matches U.S. tariffs, which the Chinese government dismissed as a "joke."
• The U.S. now charges 145% on Chinese goods — the 125% reciprocal rate plus an earlier 20% tariff in a dispute over the flow of fentanyl.

What they're saying: "Given that American goods are no longer marketable in China under the current tariff rates, if the U.S. further raises tariffs on Chinese exports, China will disregard such measures," the Chinese Ministry of Finance said in a statement, per Bloomberg.

• CNBC reported the same sentiment, though with a different translation.

By the numbers: The latest Chinese move weighed on financial markets.

• European stocks were up in early trade but turned negative after the Chinese announcement.
• U.S. stock futures were slightly lower as well in thin early morning trade.
• Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds, under enough pressure of late to force the White House's hand, were about 1.5 basis points higher at 4.407%, well off their highs overnight.

Go deeper... Xi's counterpunch: How China will ensure the trade war hurts the U.S.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has no shortage of pressure points to ensure Americans feel the pain from President Trump's superpower trade war.

The big picture: China on Friday increased its tariffs to an eye-watering 125% in response to Trump's 145% levies. And ever since trade war 1.0, Beijing has also been developing a wider array of tools that it's now putting to use.

• Here are seven ways China can punch back as Trump continues to dial up the pressure.

1. Hit consumers in the wallet

Xi doesn't even need to lift a finger to ensure Americans are hurt by the trade war — Trump's own tariffs may take care of that.

• China's factories produce the vast majority of the toys, cell phones and many other products Americans buy. From fast fashion to gaming consoles, things will get more expensive.

Between the lines: Trump has claimed the tariffs will produce a U.S. manufacturing boom that eliminates the reliance on made-in-China products. Even if that's plausible, consumers are likely in for years of pain in the meantime.

• However, Trump has also suggested he's open to negotiations with Xi, which could lead to a trade truce much sooner.
• Xi certainly has incentives to seek a deal, given the havoc the tariffs will wreak on China's already vulnerable economy. But a long-term trade war could arguably pile more political pressure on Trump than on him.

2. Punish the farmers (and more)

Any American whose livelihood depends on selling into the Chinese market is likely panicking right now — whether the product in question is oil, airplanes or soybeans (three of the top U.S. exports).

Flashback: Trump had to bail out American farmers to the tune of $28 billion during trade war 1.0, when tariff levels were far lower.

• Now, the world's largest market for soybeans is already turning away from the U.S. and toward Brazil.

What to watch: Much the same can be expected for other products. While China exports more to the U.S. than vice-versa, China is still the #3 export market for U.S. products.

• The inability to compete in China will damage or doom a broad range of U.S. companies if the trade war drags on.

3. Target individual U.S. companies

China added twelve U.S. firms to an export control list this week — restricting what they can ship out of China — and added six defense tech and aviation firms to an "unreliable entity list" that bans them from doing business in China.

• Beijing also announced an antitrust investigation into chemicals giant DuPont. That follows previous announcements of probes into other blue-chip American companies like Google and Nvidia.

China has honed that toolkit — export controls, blacklists and investigations — to target individual U.S. firms over the past several years.

• Many of America's biggest companies are deeply reliant on the Chinese market. If Beijing ramps up those tactics, Trump can expect to hear from CEOs nervous about being cut out of China.

4. Cut off supplies of rare earth minerals

China last week further restricted exports of rare earths — a sector it dominates — in response to Trump's tariffs.

• The Trump administration is scrambling to source minerals from elsewhere. But for now, the U.S. is heavily reliant on China for key inputs for products ranging from semiconductors to missiles to wind turbines.

Friction point: Banning the export of certain rare earths outright could cripple production in critical industries.

• However, like almost everything in this trade war, it would hurt China too by eliminating demand and causing shortages of products (like high-end chips) that China also needs.

5. Selling U.S. debt

On the topic of things that would hurt the U.S. but also ricochet back onto China, there's the "nuclear option" of dumping the $761 billion in U.S. bonds held by Beijing.

• Most economists doubt Xi would pull that lever given the risks to the Chinese and global economies, but even having that capability gives him leverage.

6. Devaluing the yuan

Another potential economic lever is a sharp devaluation of China's currency, which would help boost China's exports and further diminish the ability of U.S. firms to compete in the Chinese market.

• For now, though, Beijing has indicated it wants to keep the yuan stable — and to press countries to conduct more trade in yuan, rather than dollars.

7. Freezing out Hollywood

China is a key market for U.S. films, sports leagues, and other entertainment products, and Beijing hasn't been shy about using that leverage to influence what public figures say or what appears on screen.

• China's film administration said Thursday that it will "moderately reduce" approvals for Hollywood films. There's also chatter among influential Chinese bloggers about a full ban, according to Bloomberg.
• Shares in U.S. entertainment companies are sinking on those reports.

The bottom line: Trump knows that ratcheting up the trade war will squeeze China's economy, which remains heavily reliant on the U.S. But Xi knows it's a two-way street, and has plenty of options for ensuring Americans feel the squeeze, too.

This story was updated with the news China had increased its tariffs to 125%.

President Trump's whiplash tariffs may have inadvertently achieved his goal of reordering the global economy by inspiring investors to sell U.S. assets and move their money elsewhere.

Why it matters: For decades, the world has invested in America. Now, a global moment of clarity threatens to redirect trillions of dollars of capital inflows and diminish the U.S. in the international economic order.

The big picture: The U.S. receives nearly $2 trillion each year in foreign capital inflows, according to government data — things like investments in businesses and bank lending, but also foreign investors buying U.S. stocks and bonds.

• America's share of global capital flows has nearly doubled from where it was just before the pandemic, to 41%.

Yes, but: Then came the tariffs.

• The U.S. dollar — which should strengthen in a tariff environment, all other things being equal — weakened steadily.
• "This suggests foreigners have been and are continuing to sell U.S. stocks and sending their money elsewhere," write Howard Ward and John Belton, co-chief investment officers of value at Gabelli Funds.

The intrigue: A strong U.S. dollar has been orthodoxy for decades, and investors have counted on knowing the government would act to preserve the greenback as the world's reserve currency.

• But Stephen Miran, the chair of Trump's Council of Economic Advisers, recently gave a speech in which he portrayed the strong dollar as fraught with downsides, denting U.S. competitiveness and labor.
• If the government isn't going to stand as firmly by the dollar, investors may reason it's a good time to look elsewhere, too.

Between the lines: The tariff blowback only accelerates a trend that started not long after Trump took office, with investors preferring foreign markets over the U.S.

• The S&P 500 is one of the world's worst-performing major indices so far this year.
• Look no further than Thursday, when Asian and European shares rallied sharply — and U.S. stocks sank.
• There's also bond market pain, which the White House acknowledged as driving the tariff rollback.

Lurking in the background: The fact that foreign investors hold almost 30% of publicly held U.S. government debt, essentially split between private and state holders.

• "(The) more troubling narrative of late is the notion of what we call a 'sell America Inc.' risk," interest rates strategists at ING wrote this week. "(The) here and now is painting Treasuries as a tainted product, and that's not comfortable territory."

The other side: For all the anxiety, the U.S. economy is still the world's largest and remains attractive to plenty of investors.

• An auction of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds Wednesday was met with slightly better-than-normal demand, even amid the global chaos.
• Billions of dollars are still pouring into the United States to build new auto factories, data centers, and the like.

What to watch: Whether this was a blip, or the start of a fundamental shift in the way the world views investing in America.

Young people are starkly divided by who they vote for, what they do for fun and where they get their news and information, according to new Axios-Generation Lab polling.

Why it matters: Gen Z and young millennials exemplify how social media, news and podcasts have fragmented America into competing realities.

Zoom in: Their favorite podcasts cover a vast range from comedy to true crime to daily news.

• But patterns — and partisan splits — emerge when honing in on the audiences of MAGA and MAGA-adjacent media stars like Charlie Kirk and Joe Rogan, according to the poll of 18- to 34-year-olds nationwide.

By the numbers: 27% of young people who voted for President Trump say they listen to "The Joe Rogan Experience" at least once a month, compared with 6% who cast their ballots for former Vice President Harris.

• 19% of Trump voters say the same about "The Charlie Kirk Show," and 18% tune into "The Ben Shapiro Show." Among Harris voters, it's 3% for each.

Podcasts from Barstool Sports, founded by Trump supporter Dave Portnoy, are the most popular among young people who voted for Trump.

• 34% of young Trump voters say they listened to a Barstool Sports podcast in the last month, compared with 9% of Harris supporters.

The intrigue: A few podcasts are roughly equally popular among Gen Zers on the right and left, including "The Daily" (13% of Harris voters and 14% of Trump voters), TED Talks Daily (17% of Harris voters and 23% of Trump voters) and "Call Her Daddy" (9% each).

Zoom out: There are divisions in what young Americans on the right vs. left do for fun, too.

• 44% of Harris supporters say they love going to concerts vs. 28% of Trump supporters.
• 42% of Trump voters are avid sports fans vs. 26% of Harris voters.
• Both sides are equally plugged into politics and current events (28%, Harris voters; 26%, Trump voters).

Methodology: This poll was conducted Feb. 21-28 from a representative sample of 972 18- to 34-year-olds nationwide. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points.

A warning from the world's largest and most powerful financial market did what few others could: force President Trump to pivot on a key aspect of his trade agenda.

Why it matters: The U.S. Treasury market is the heart of the global financial system. The rapid selloff fueled by Trump's tariffs was seen as a ticking economic time bomb that risked bringing the world economy to a screeching halt.

Between the lines: The U.S. government funds its $36 trillion national debt with bonds, which it sells to investors around the world — individuals, pension funds, other nations, you name it.

• The price they are willing to pay determines the interest rate on government debt, which in turn ripples through to all other forms of borrowing, like home mortgages or corporate lending.
• Treasury securities are the bedrock of financial transactions around the globe — a store of value for German banks, Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds, and countless other key roles in the underpinnings of the global financial system.

Threat level: There is a reason why the high-flying stock market gets all the headlines. The bond market is boring and unsexy when it is working well.

• That was not the case this week. The moves in the Treasury market suggested global investors were becoming less confident in U.S. government bonds, which in turn pushed up borrowing costs across the board.
• The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond skyrocketed by as much as 0.6 percentage points since the start of the week. Sound small? It's a magnitude not seen since the pandemic, according to TD Securities.

The big picture: The extraordinary swings suggest a profound shift in financial market dynamics that could hold Trump back in the years ahead, a hurdle he did not face during his first term.

• In the 2010s, global bond investors were less jittery. But the 2020s might go down as the decade when the bond vigilantes returned.
• Trump is only the latest global leader forced to walk back policy over sovereign debt. A bond market revolt ousted UK prime minister Liz Truss in 2022 and jolted spending plans for the current government this year.
• France's government collapsed last year over a budget fight spurred by flighty bond investors.
• Kevin Hassett, one of Trump's top economic advisors, told CNBC yesterday "there's no doubt" the Treasury market made the administration's decision to pause reciprocal tariffs a bit more urgent.

What they're saying: The last time yields moved up so fast was the pandemic crash in 2020, when the Federal Reserve had to step in to rescue the market.

• This time there was no deadly virus or recession, but a self-imposed trade policy threatening the global economy.
• The bond market signaled that policy threat could be compounded by another crisis: dried-up demand for U.S. government bonds — including from foreigners that buy a massive amount of debt — that would send shockwaves across the economy.

What they're saying: "U.S. Treasury debt is the risk free asset of the world," says Gennadiy Goldberg, a rates strategist at TD Securities.

• "If there are questions about investors willingness to buy it — whether it's because of uncertainty or they're worried that there will not be enough investors — it really threatens the primacy of U.S. treasury debt as the rock that underpins the global financial system."

What to watch: There was plenty of appetite for the $22 billion in government debt auctioned off yesterday.

• Tepid demand for U.S. government debt is still just a risk for now, though one that looked more likely this week.

President Trump's diplomatic envoy Steve Witkoff traveled to Russia and met President Vladimir Putin on Friday, according to a source familiar with the trip and FlightRadar data.

Why it matters: This will be the third meeting between Witkoff and Putin as Trump pushes for a ceasefire in the war between Russia and Ukraine.

The latest: Witkoff landed in Saint Petersburg on Friday morning and met with Putin's envoy Kirill Dmitriev, the Kremlin said.

• Ahead of Witkoff's meeting with Putin, Trump wrote on his Truth Social account: "Russia has to get moving. Too many people are DYING, thousands a week, in a terrible and senseless war - A war that should have never happened, and wouldn't have happened, if I were President!!!"

Friction point: Trump has become frustrated that negotiations haven't made much progress in recent weeks, and said at one point that he was "pissed off" about comments Putin had made on Ukraine.

• If no ceasefire is reached by the end of the month, Trump could move forward with additional sanctions on Russia either through executive power or by asking Congress to pass new sanctions legislation, a source familiar with the issue told Axios.
• "We will know soon enough, in a matter of weeks, not months, whether Russia is serious about peace or not. I hope they are," Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last week on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Brussels.

Driving the news: Last week, Witkoff hosted Dmitriev in Washington in an effort to break the logjam.

• While Ukraine agreed to Trump's proposal for an unconditional ceasefire, and subsequently agreed to plans for a smaller-scale maritime ceasefire, Russia made a series of new demands, including the lifting of some U.S. sanctions.
• "We are making progress. We hope that we are getting relatively close to getting a deal between Russia and Ukraine to stop the fighting," Trump said on Thursday during a Cabinet meeting.

State of play: The U.S. and Russia implemented a prisoner exchange deal on Thursday that included the release of dual U.S.-Russian citizen Ksenia Karelina.

• The negotiations on the deal were a result of a previous meeting between Witkoff and Putin in March.
• Trump said he appreciated Putin's decision to release Karelina. He mentioned Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) CEO Dana White told him she is the girlfriend of a UFC fighter and asked him to help in releasing her.
• U.S. and Russian diplomats met again on Thursday in Istanbul to discuss the normalization of relations between the countries.
• A State Department spokesperson did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening about Witkoff's trip.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details.

Egg prices rose to a record high of $6.23 per dozen in March, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data released on Thursday.

The big picture: President Trump claimed credit last month for a drop in wholesale egg prices as bird flu outbreaks that forced producers to cull millions of chickens and led to shortages waned and his administration moved to tackle higher prices by boosting egg imports.

• However, consumers don't typically immediately see wholesale price drops reflected at the grocery store, per Axios' Kelly Tyko and Nathan Bomey.
• And eggs are in high demand over the Jewish holiday of Passover, which starts Saturday, and Easter, held on April 20 this year. This can drive prices higher.

By the numbers: The price for a dozen grade A large eggs increased from $5.90 in February to $6.23, per the BLS. In January, it was $4.95 a dozen.

• Wholesale egg prices have fallen from an average of $6.55 per dozen on Jan. 24 to $3.26 last Friday, per Agriculture Department data.

Between the lines: "In the same way that just because the barrel price of oil goes down does not mean that gas prices immediately go down, there's a delay here," said University of Arkansas agricultural economist Jada Thompson in a blog post this week.

• "Retailers get to choose their own price, and they took a lot of losses when prices were exceptionally high," Thompson added.
• "They may be saying, 'I've lost money over here, so I'm going to let what I have in stock go out at the price it currently is before I lower the price, to compensate for that earlier loss.'"

Go deeper: Why food prices are still high, five years after COVID

President Trump threatened Mexico with more tariffs and sanctions on Thursday over a water dispute at the southern border.

What he's saying: "Mexico OWES Texas 1.3 million acre-feet of water under the 1944 Water Treaty, but Mexico is unfortunately violating their Treaty obligation," Trump said in a Truth Social post, referring to a 1944 agreement that requires Mexico to deliver to U.S. 1.75 million acre-feet of water over a five-year cycle.

• "This is very unfair, and it is hurting South Texas Farmers very badly. Last year, the only Sugar Mill in Texas CLOSED, because Mexico has been stealing the water from Texas Farmers," Trump said..
• "I will make sure Mexico doesn't violate our Treaties, and doesn't hurt our Texas Farmers. ... we will keep escalating consequences, including TARIFFS and, maybe even SANCTIONS, until Mexico honors the Treaty, and GIVES TEXAS THE WATER THEY ARE OWED!" he added.

Context: By the end of last year, Mexico had only delivered 488,634 AF of water since Oct. 2020, per U.S. International Boundary and Water Commission data.

• The State Department's Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs last month said on X Mexico's "continued shortfalls in its water deliveries" were "decimating American agriculture," particularly farmers in the Rio Grande valley.
• "As a result ... for the first time, the U.S. will deny Mexico's non-treaty request for a special delivery channel for Colorado River water to be delivered to Tijuana," it added.
• Mexican officials say extreme drought fueled by climate change was contributing to water shortages.

The other side: Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum cited the three-year drought in a post to X addressing Trump's complaints and said "to the extent water is available, Mexico has been complying" with the treaty.

• She said she had instructed government officals "to immediately contact" the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the State Department and she's "confident that, as on other issues, an agreement will be reached."

The Food and Drug Administration on Thursday said it would begin phasing out animal testing requirements for antibody therapies and other drugs and move toward AI-based models and other tools it deems "human-relevant."

Why it matters: The agency is trying to reaffirm its role as a leader in modern regulatory science amid DOGE-directed cuts that have rattled drug developers and investors and stoked concerns about timely product reviews.

Driving the news: The FDA said it would launch a pilot program over the next year allowing select developers of monoclonal antibodies to use a primarily non-animal-based testing strategy.

• Commissioner Marty Makary in a statement said the shift would improve drug safety, lower research and development costs and address ethical concerns about animal experimentation.
• "This initiative marks a paradigm shift in drug evaluation and holds promise to accelerate cures and meaningful treatments for Americans while reducing animal use," Makary said.

Zoom in: FDA said its roadmap envisions using computer modeling and AI to predict a drug's behavior and possible side effects, through software simulations of how a monoclonal antibody distributes through the human body.

• It also will promote the use of lab-grown human "organoids" and "organ-on-a-chip" technology that mimic the liver, heart, and immune organs to test drug safety and reveal possible toxic effects that can go undetected in animals.
• Officials said companies that submit strong safety data from non-animal tests may receive streamlined product reviews. And the FDA will begin using safety data from other countries with comparable regulatory standards to help determine a drug's efficacy.

What they're saying: "The initiative combines deregulatory themes and cutting-edge technology — all in service of the broadly popular goal of reducing animal testing," TD Cowen analyst Rick Weissenstein wrote in a note.

• PETA said the new policies were "a significant step" towards replacing the use of animals, including vaccine and other testing on monkeys at federally-funded primate centers.
• Some health tech stocks rose on the news, including Certara Inc., a maker of biosimulation software. Animal testing firms Inotiv and Charles River Laboratories fell in after-hours trading.
• PhRMA, the drug industry trade group, didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

UAW workers are poised to stomach thousands of dollars in reduced payments because of President Trump's auto tariffs, according to new estimates.

Why it matters: The left-leaning union is supporting the Republican's auto tariffs, saying free trade hurts American manufacturing and arguing that the automakers can afford to absorb the financial blow.

Between the lines: The average hourly UAW-represented worker for General Motors, Ford and Stellantis will get a profit-sharing check reduction of anywhere from $1,000 to more than $5,000, according to Anderson Economic Group.

• "For some automakers, with Stellantis being the most vulnerable at the current time, the effects of a prolonged tariff war could lead to operating losses that cause payouts to go to zero," the Michigan-based firm estimates in a new report.

How it works: UAW autoworkers get annual profit-sharing checks based on the North American profits of their employers.

• That's particularly problematic for union members because Trump's tariffs are expected to hit North American profits hard.
• Trump this week paused his reciprocal tariffs, except on China, but maintained his 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts.

Zoom in: Anderson Economic Group based its estimate on a projection of lower sales and higher costs for the automakers, collectively leading to a reduction of more than $5 billion in adjusted earnings in 2025.

• The economists projected a 1-million unit decline in annual new vehicle sales in the U.S. — a figure that includes non-UAW-represented automakers.
• The group conducted the analysis at the request of the Detroit Free Press, spokesperson Lisa Wootton Booth said.
• "Some Wall Street analysts who reviewed Anderson's math also agreed with it, with some saying it's likely conservative," the Free Press reported.

The other side: The UAW — which did not immediately respond to a request for comment — has argued that its workers and the union movement will win in the long run from increased tariffs.

• "These tariffs are a major step in the right direction for autoworkers and blue-collar communities across the country, and it is now on the automakers, from the Big Three to Volkswagen and beyond, to bring back good union jobs to the U.S," UAW president Shawn Fain said in a recent statement.

By the numbers: This year's profit-sharing checks for UAW-represented workers, based on 2024 earnings, were:

• $14,500 at GM.
• $10,208 at Ford.
• $3,780 at Stellantis.

More than half a dozen members of Congress from the New York metro area were ushered off a flight Thursday after another plane clipped its wing while taxiing at Washington Reagan National Airport.

Why it matters: Several Democratic lawmakers were quick to cast the incident as a consequence of DOGE cuts to the Federal Aviation Administration.

• "When planes are taking off and landing every minute of the day, FAA funding is cut, air traffic controllers are fired and current staff is spread thinner ... that is when mistakes happen," said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.).
• Rep. Greg Meeks (D-N.Y.), who was on the flight, said the incident "underscores the urgent need for more FAA funding—people's lives are at stake. Cuts and firing FAA employees are not the answer."
• The FAA confirmed the incident in a statement and said it has launched an investigation. Both were American Airlines flights with one headed to JFK in New York and the other going to Charleston, South Carolina.

By the numbers: Seven House members, along with "dozens of other concerned passengers," were on the flight, Meeks said.

• A lawmaker who was on the flight told Axios the passengers included Meeks and Reps. Grace Meng (D-N.Y.), Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.), Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.) and Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.).
• The lawmakers and other passengers were removed from the flight shortly after the incident.

What happened: LaLota said in a post on X that "another plane just bumped into our wing," and that the plane headed back to the gate afterward.

• "While waiting on the runway to fly out of DC today, another plane clipped the wing of the plane my colleagues and I were on," Meng said on X.

Top Senate Democrats plan to unveil legislation that would provide an emergency $200 monthly increase in Social Security benefits through the end of the year, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: It's the party's latest effort to highlight the Trump administration's tariff policies and now-scrapped DOGE-driven plans for service reductions to the popular benefits program.

• Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) will introduce the Social Security Emergency Inflation Relief Act, according to a source familiar with the plans.
• It's a brainchild of the caucus's Social Security War Room.

Driving the news: The Democrats argue that the $200-a-month increase is necessary to shield beneficiaries from price increases stemming from Trump's tariff policies.

• Economists have warned that the levies are likely to drive inflation and — unlike in 2022 — that wages may struggle to keep up.
• The Social Security Administration this week backed off plans to drastically cut phone services after weeks of confusion and outcry.
• Democrats argue that their proposal shows a clear contrast with Republicans on entitlements, pointing to the GOP's plans to cut spending — and potentially Medicaid benefits — through budget reconciliation.

What they're saying: In an op-ed in the Financial Times on Wednesday, Warren called on Republicans to "stand ready to expand social security — not gut it — by passing an emergency, temporary adjustment."

• Schumer said on the Senate floor Thursday that Republicans "want to gut" Social Security.
• Top congressional Republicans have said they have no plans to reduce Social Security benefits.

Between the lines: The bill has no future in the Senate under Republican leadership. But it could still be a useful messaging tool for Democrats.

• Schumer and his party have used amendment votes to target vulnerable Republican senators who are up for reelection in 2026.
• Democrats could demand that the bill be included as an amendment to any legislation that the GOP wants to move through the Senate over the next year.

The cohort of House members eyeing higher offices keeps expanding, with at least three dozen lawmakers now actively running or considering bids for Senate and governor.

Why it matters: The dynamic could complicate things for both Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) as they try to maximize attendance to thwart each others' plans.

• In Jeffries' case, he's already dealing with two vacancies caused by deaths and another member, Rep. Donald Norcross (D-N.J.), in intensive care.
• But Jeffries told Axios he is not worried, saying House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) "has done a tremendous job; we've had complete attendance, absent a handful of medical emergencies."

What we're hearing: Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) signaled he could run for Senate or governor, telling Axios he is "running for reelection to my seat as far as I know, but I'll look at statewide offices. I'm not taking anything off the table."

• Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) is "99.9%" of the way to a gubernatorial run, a source familiar with her thinking told Axios.
• Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) isn't ruling out a run for governor or Senate, saying in a statement to Axios he will "continue my service to the people of Georgia at whatever level they choose in the future."

The intrigue: Some House members, asked about their reported ambitions in interviews with Axios, demurred.

• Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas), asked whether he is sizing up a run for governor, told Axios: "If I make any decisions, I'll be sure to let you guys know."
• Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), who has mulled jumping into the crowded Senate race in his state, told Axios: "No comment yet, give me a week."
• Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.), speculated as a potential primary challenger to Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), said: "My political focus is taking back the House; my leadership PAC, Beyond Thoughts and Prayers, is again going to be supporting battleground Democrats."

Yes, but: Others who had considered bids for higher office are firmly ruling out leaving the House — at least for now.

• Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio), previously floated as a potential challenger to Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio), told Axios he is "staying put" in the House.
• Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas), seen as a Democratic Party rising star, is "not considering" any statewide runs, a source familiar with the matter told Axios.

By the numbers: More than a half dozen House members are already running for other offices — six for governor, one for Senate — with at least another 30 considering runs.

• Some are conditioning their plans on what political heavyweights in their states do: Several ambitious House Republicans in Georgia, for instance, have said they would only consider running against Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) if Gov. Brian Kemp (R) passes on a bid.
• The same dynamic is at play for incumbent senators, with numerous House Democrats waiting to see whether Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) retires.

Others may jockey behind the scenes for appointments to fill the seats of senators who are expected to run for governor.

• Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) told Axios he is interested in replacing Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) if she is elected governor.
• Reps. Jason Crow (D-Colo.) and Joe Neguse (D-Colo.) are both being floated as potential picks to replace Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.).

What to watch: Several races could see a slugfest between multiple House members.

• A recent 314 Action Fund poll showed a close race between Reps. Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) for Durbin's seat, with Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) trailing.

The Department of Homeland Security offered a brief two-page memo as its evidence in the case against Columbia University alumnus Mahmoud Khalil ahead of Friday's hearing that will likely decide if the detained legal permanent resident is deported from the U.S.

The big picture: The memo from Secretary of State Marco Rubio leaned heavily on the U.S.' right to remove noncitizens whose presence in the country would "compromise a compelling U.S. foreign policy interest."

• The memo obtained by Axios does not allege criminal conduct by Khalil and he has not been charged with any crime.
• At the time of Khalil's arrest, ICE informed him that his student visa was revoked, and upon learning he was a legal resident, they revoked his green card instead, his attorney told Axios after his arrest.

Driving the news: In the memo, Rubio wrote that allowing Khalil to remain in the country would "undermine U.S. policy to combat anti-Semitism around the world and in the United States, in addition to efforts to protect Jewish students from harassment and violence in the United States."

• Khalil could be expelled for his participation and roles in "anti-Semitic protests and disruptive activities," Rubio's letter states.
• The memo echoes similar arguments the government has made in other legal filings for the case. They've also said Khalil had failed to disclose a job with the British Embassy in Lebanon and his membership with a United Nations agency helping Palestinian refugees on his green card application.

Several Trump administration officials have made allegations regarding Khalil's behavior while at Columbia, but not provided any evidence for the claims.

• A White House official said that the Department of Homeland Security had been investigating Khalil prior to his arrest and found he was actively, but not materially, supporting Hamas.
• White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said last month that Khalil had "harassed Jewish-American students and made them feel unsafe on their own college campus" and "distributed pro-Hamas propaganda, flyers with the logo of Hamas."

The other side: Khalil's attorneys argue that the government has provided no analysis or evidence that show their client is a threat to national security.

• "Whether the government can act in violation of the Constitution to deport someone is front and center, and our position is that it cannot," Khalil's attorney, Marc Van Der Hout, said during a press briefing Thursday.
• His legal team said they plan to contest the evidence provided by the government and to ask to depose Rubio.
• Khalil is being held in Louisiana and his lawyers are seeking his immediate release, arguing his detention is in violation of the First Amendment.

Go deeper: DOJ alleges key omissions on Mahmoud Khalil's green card application