The cohort of House members eyeing higher offices keeps expanding, with at least three dozen lawmakers now actively running or considering bids for Senate and governor.

Why it matters: The dynamic could complicate things for both Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) as they try to maximize attendance to thwart each others' plans.

• In Jeffries' case, he's already dealing with two vacancies caused by deaths and another member, Rep. Donald Norcross (D-N.J.), in intensive care.
• But Jeffries told Axios he is not worried, saying House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) "has done a tremendous job; we've had complete attendance, absent a handful of medical emergencies."

What we're hearing: Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) signaled he could run for Senate or governor, telling Axios he is "running for reelection to my seat as far as I know, but I'll look at statewide offices. I'm not taking anything off the table."

• Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) is "99.9%" of the way to a gubernatorial run, a source familiar with her thinking told Axios.
• Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) isn't ruling out a run for governor or Senate, saying in a statement to Axios he will "continue my service to the people of Georgia at whatever level they choose in the future."

The intrigue: Some House members, asked about their reported ambitions in interviews with Axios, demurred.

• Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas), asked whether he is sizing up a run for governor, told Axios: "If I make any decisions, I'll be sure to let you guys know."
• Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), who has mulled jumping into the crowded Senate race in his state, told Axios: "No comment yet, give me a week."
• Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.), speculated as a potential primary challenger to Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), said: "My political focus is taking back the House; my leadership PAC, Beyond Thoughts and Prayers, is again going to be supporting battleground Democrats."

Yes, but: Others who had considered bids for higher office are firmly ruling out leaving the House — at least for now.

• Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio), previously floated as a potential challenger to Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio), told Axios he is "staying put" in the House.
• Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas), seen as a Democratic Party rising star, is "not considering" any statewide runs, a source familiar with the matter told Axios.

By the numbers: More than a half dozen House members are already running for other offices — six for governor, one for Senate — with at least another 30 considering runs.

• Some are conditioning their plans on what political heavyweights in their states do: Several ambitious House Republicans in Georgia, for instance, have said they would only consider running against Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) if Gov. Brian Kemp (R) passes on a bid.
• The same dynamic is at play for incumbent senators, with numerous House Democrats waiting to see whether Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) retires.

Others may jockey behind the scenes for appointments to fill the seats of senators who are expected to run for governor.

• Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) told Axios he is interested in replacing Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) if she is elected governor.
• Reps. Jason Crow (D-Colo.) and Joe Neguse (D-Colo.) are both being floated as potential picks to replace Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.).

What to watch: Several races could see a slugfest between multiple House members.

• A recent 314 Action Fund poll showed a close race between Reps. Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) for Durbin's seat, with Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) trailing.

The Department of Homeland Security offered a brief two-page memo as its evidence in the case against Columbia University alumnus Mahmoud Khalil ahead of Friday's hearing that will likely decide if the detained legal permanent resident is deported from the U.S.

The big picture: The memo from Secretary of State Marco Rubio leaned heavily on the U.S.' right to remove noncitizens whose presence in the country would "compromise a compelling U.S. foreign policy interest."

• The memo obtained by Axios does not allege any criminal conduct by Khalil and he has not been charged with any crime.
• At the time of Khalil's arrest, ICE informed him that his student visa was revoked, and upon learning he was a legal resident, they revoked his green card instead, his attorney told Axios after his arrest.

Driving the news: In the memo, Rubio wrote that allowing Khalil to remain in the country would "undermine U.S. policy to combat anti-Semitism around the world and in the United States, in addition to efforts to protect Jewish students from harassment and violence in the United States."

• Khalil could be expelled for his participation and roles in "antisemitic protests and disruptive activities," Rubio's letter states.
• The memo echoes similar arguments the government has made in other legal filings for the case. They've also said Khalil had failed to disclose a job with the British Embassy in Lebanon and his membership with a United Nations agency helping Palestinian refugees on his green card application.

Several Trump administration officials have made allegations regarding Khalil's behavior while at Columbia, but not provided any evidence for the claims.

• A White House official said that the Department of Homeland Security had been investigating Khalil prior to his arrest and found he was actively, but not materially, supporting Hamas.
• White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said last month that Khalil had "harassed Jewish-American students and made them feel unsafe on their own college campus" and "distributed pro-Hamas propaganda, flyers with the logo of Hamas."

The other side: Khalil's attorneys argue that the government has provided no analysis or evidence that show their client is a threat to national security.

• "Whether the government can act in violation of the Constitution to deport someone is front and center, and our position is that it cannot," Khalil's attorney, Marc Van Der Hout, said during a press briefing Thursday.
• His legal team said they plan to contest the evidence provided by the government and to ask to depose Rubio.
• Khalil is currently being held in Louisiana and his lawyers are seeking his immediate release, arguing his detention is in violation of the First Amendment.

Go deeper: DOJ alleges key omissions on Mahmoud Khalil's green card application

Six people, including three children, died after a helicopter crashed in the Hudson River, between New York and New Jersey, on Thursday, New York City Mayor Eric Adams said.

Details: The bodies have been removed from the river, Adams said during a press briefing Thursday evening.

• The crash was reported about 3pm, per the New York City Fire Department.
• The Bell 206 helicopter was submerged in the Hudson as of 4:30pm Thursday ET, a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) statement said.

Zoom in: The Federal Aviation Administration and National Transportation Safety Board will investigate the incident.

• The New York City Fire Department said its units were responding, with land marine units performing rescue operations.
• The fire department was assisting first responders closer to the New Jersey side of the river, per New York City Mayor Eric Adams.

Zoom out: This is the latest air crash in a year with aviation anxiety due to several collisions, though flying remains the safest way to travel.

• A fatal helicopter-plane crash in January prompted the FAA to permanently halt non-essential helicopter operations last month near Reagan National Airport outside of Washington, D.C.
• At least 32 people died in NYC helicopter accidents from 1977 to 2019, per an AP analysis.
• In 2018, five people drowned after a charter helicopter crashed into the East River. The pilot survived.

Go deeper: FAA closes helicopter route near D.C. airport after fatal crash

Iran is considering proposing during talks with the U.S. that the two countries work on an interim nuclear agreement before pursuing negotiations over a comprehensive deal, a European diplomat and a source familiar with the issue thinking told Axios.

Why it matters: President Trump has set a two-month deadline for negotiations with Iran on a new nuclear deal — and in the meantime ordered a build up of U.S. military forces in the Middle East as another option if diplomacy fails.

• If a deal isn't reached, Trump could order a U.S. military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities or support an Israeli strike.
• The sources said the Iranians think reaching a complex and highly technical nuclear deal in two months is unrealistic and they want to get more time on the clock to avoid an escalation.
• "The Iranians seem to believe that a sustainable deal is unlikely to be achieved in the timeframe that President Trump has in mind. It might therefore be necessary to consider an interim agreement as a way station toward a final deal," says Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group.
• The Iranian Mission to the UN declined to comment.

Between the lines: An interim agreement between the U.S. and Iran could include suspending some of Iran's uranium enrichment activity, diluting its 60% enriched uranium stockpile and allowing UN inspectors more access to Iran's nuclear facilities.

• Experts told Axios these steps would only slightly increase Iran's timeline for developing a nuclear bomb. But they could help build trust for negotiations on a comprehensive deal.
• An interim agreement could also involve extending the "snapback" mechanism that was part of the 2015 nuclear deal. The mechanism, which triggers UN Security Council sanctions against Iran if it violates the agreement, is set to expire in October.
• France, the UK and Germany told Iran they are going to trigger the "snapback" of sanctions if no new deal is reached by the end of June.

Yes, but: An interim agreement would likely also include demand from Iran that Trump suspend his "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran's economy. It is not clear if Trump would be willing to do that.

• This week the Trump administration imposed two rounds of new sanctions against Iranian companies and individuals connected to the nuclear program and the oil industry.
• An Iranian proposal for an interim agreement could also further increase suspicion and skepticism in the Trump administration about Iranian leaders' intentions and whether they are trying to buy time without rolling back their nuclear program.

Catch up quick: White House envoy Steve Witkoff is going to hold talks with the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Saturday in Oman.

• While the U.S. still says the talks are going to be direct, the Iranians maintain the negotiations will be through Omani mediators.

On Wednesday, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office there is "a little time ... but not much time" for negotiations.

• "When you start talks, you know pretty quickly whether they're going well or not. So the conclusion would be — when I feel they're not going well,"he said.
• Trump said his key demand is that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon.
• "But if it requires military, we're going to have military. Israel will obviously be very involved in that — maybe even lead it. But nobody leads us. We do what we want to do," he said.

The other side: On Thursday, the former head of Iran's national security council Ali Shamkhani, who is now a foreign policy adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, said the continued military threats against Iran "may lead to deterrent measures."

• He suggested Iran could expel International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors and cease to cooperate with the nuclear watchdog, and potentially transfer enriched materials "to secure locations" not monitored by the UN.

Stocks plunged Thursday, erasing a big chunk of Wednesday's market rebound as traders digested the remaining threats from President Trump's tariff frenzy.

Why it matters: As escalating trade war with China has taken center stage.

By the numbers: Red ink was everywhere as of about 3 p.m., even though stocks had rebounded well off session lows:

• The Dow was down 825 points, or 2%, to 39,787.
• The S&P 500 index was off 2.8% to 5,306 after Wednesday posting the third largest single-day percentage increase since 1939.
• The tech-heavy Nasdaq is down 3.6% to 16,513.
• The small-cap Russell 2000 plummeted 4% to 1,837.

The intrigue: Just about the only index on the rise was the Vix — the volatility index — which rises when volatility is increasing.

• It was up 23% Thursday afternoon.

The big picture: Investors' immediate hopes following Trump's reciprocal tariff pause Wednesday have proved short-lived, giving way to fears of a fracturing global economy from the tariffs that remain in place.

• "While the acute near-term risk of a recessionary feedback loop has been averted, the chronic problem of policy volatility and related uncertainties persists," according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
• Investors are spooked that the Trump administration has "arguably shown a greater tolerance for causing a recession than many might have thought," writes Thomas Mathews, head of markets, Asia Pacific, at Capital Economics.

The bottom line: The tariffs pause did not extinguish the market's volatility.

President Trump blew up global trade and rattled the economy with huge, hotly disputed tariffs on major trading partners. Exactly one week later, he said never mind.

Why it matters: The new question for top CEOs and Wall Street traders is which of Trump's "burn-it-all-down" economic policies actually stick.

• "125% on China + permanent uncertainty that this volcano can erupt again at any moment probably means a recession can still happen," investor Spencer Hakimian posted to X — though he noted it was still better for growth than the alternative.

The intrigue: The reciprocal tariffs are paused, though at least two threats to the global economy have only grown:

• Forever uncertainty and eroding trust — a combination that makes it unpalatable for businesses to expand or invest.
• Global allies may see trade deals as more flimsy than in recent years, further crushing the reliability of the U.S. as a trading partner.

Threat level: If businesses pivot to adjust to Trump's trade policies, they might get burned by a policy reversal.

• But a slow pivot could be equally painful, if promised negotiations fall through and huge tariffs loom on the other side of the White House freeze.

What they're saying: The reciprocal tariff freeze is a positive development but "on-again, off-again tariff announcements must have our partners perplexed, not knowing what could come next," former acting deputy U.S. trade representative Wendy Cutler tells Axios.

• "It's even possible that with more time U.S. negotiating requests increase, making the already difficult negotiations more complex."

For businesses, Cutler adds, "it does little to create confidence and certainty, leading many to hold off on further investment decisions for at least a few months."

• Economists agree. "Companies will slow walk hiring and investment decisions until they get clarity on trade policies," Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica, wrote in a note to clients.
• It's not great for markets either. "Certainly investor confidence in the predictability of policy in the US has gone down, maybe not permanently, but certainly for the short term," wrote Chris Marangi, co-CIO of Value at Gabelli Funds, in a note.

The big picture: By leaving a 10% baseline levy in place, the U.S. economy must still grapple with tariffs — plus those on steel, aluminum and more — that would be massive in any other context. All U.S.-bound Chinese goods now face a staggering tariff of 125%.

• But in the eyes of Wall Street traders, what looked like a worldwide trade war now primarily looks like a U.S.-China trade war — a step down that suggests further tariff easing down the line. But that is no guarantee.
• Goldman Sachs rescinded its call of higher recession odds after the White House tariff pause — just hours after the note was published to clients.

What to watch: The White House insisted there would be no pause in the reciprocal tariffs. Then came a pause.

• Advisers said the reciprocal tariffs were non-negotiable. But today Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he would help lead trade negotiations with dozens of nations.

"You have to have flexibility," Trump said, responding to a question about his credibility on Wednesday.

• "I could say, 'here's a wall, I'm going to go through it no matter what,' and you keep going and you can't go through the wall," he said. "Sometimes you have to go under the wall, around the wall or over the wall."

The GOP's Senate campaign arm delivered a blunt warning to Republicans on Thursday: Democrats are about to swamp you in cash.

Why it matters: Senate Republicans were caught flat-footed in states like Nebraska in 2024. They don't want a repeat of that scare in 2026, when they know Democrats will have the edge on fundraising and enthusiasm.

• NRSC Executive Director Jennifer DeCasper drew mumbles from GOP chiefs of staff on Thursday when she said many Senate campaigns are being outraised by House rank-and-file lawmakers, a source familiar told Axios.
• DeCasper also pointed to Georgia, where vulnerable Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff raised a record-breaking $11 million during the first three months of the year.
• Democrats have an amped-up fundraising base (see the Florida special elections) and are positioned to pump cash into independent candidates against GOP incumbents, even in deep-red states, DeCasper warned.

The bottom line: Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.) — whose reelection is rated "Solid R" by Cook Political Report — has a likely independent challenger in Dan Osborn, who gave Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) a tough race in 2024.

Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) plans to launch his bid for governor of Colorado as soon as Friday, multiple sources familiar with his plans told Axios.

State of play: Bennet's bid sets up a high-profile showdown with Attorney General Phil Weiser for the state's chief executive post.

• The two candidates offer a contrast in styles and ideology with Bennet as the more moderate contender.
• A spokesperson for Bennet did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Case in point: Bennet voted in January to support President Trump's pick for Energy secretary, Chris Wright, touting the former Denver fracking executive's "deep expertise."

• Meanwhile, Weiser is positioned as the state's most prominent Trump adversary, using his powers to file more than a dozen lawsuits challenging the administration.

Context: Bennet, the former Denver Public Schools superintendent, is serving his third full-term in the U.S. Senate after being reelected in 2022.

• Weiser is in his second and final term as the state's top prosecutor.

The intrigue: This is the second time Bennet has looked to leave his Senate post. He ran for the Democratic nomination for president in 2020 in a crowded field and failed to gain traction.

• Bennet is expected to keep his U.S. Senate seat while campaigning for governor.

The other side: Weiser didn't mince words when reacting to Bennet's entry into the race. In a statement to Axios, he labeled himself the "fighter Colorado needs" while downplaying Bennet's experience for the job.

• "Two years ago, the voters sent Sen. Bennet back to D.C. because we believe he would be there for us no matter what," Weiser said, adding: "Now more than ever, we need experienced Democratic leaders in Washington."

Earlier this week, Weiser announced high-profile endorsements from former Colorado first lady Dottie Lamm, the wife of the late Gov. Dick Lamm, and support from former Gov. Roy Romer, who will serve as a co-chair of the campaign.

• Anna Huck will lead Weiser's team as campaign manager. She most recently served as finance director for now-North Carolina Gov. Josh Stein's campaign.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser's comment.

While CEOs have stayed mostly mum on tariffs for fear of retribution, earnings season has forced some executives to discuss how Trump's trade policies could affect their businesses.

Why it matters: America's top business leaders are starting to communicate through the uncertainty in anticipation of changing consumer habits and prices.

What they're saying: "It's clearly a fluid environment. And while we don't know everything that's going to happen, of course, we do know what our priorities are, and we know what our purpose is, and we'll be focused on keeping prices as low as we can. We'll be focused on managing our inventory and our expenses well," Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said during an investor presentation on Wednesday.

• "There is increasing consumer uncertainty and concern over returning to more inflation, and this has impacted consumer sentiment, particularly in the last month. ... as many are worried about the future, job security, and rising costs," McCormick chairman, president and CEO Brendan Foley said last month.
• "When it comes to tariffs, that's just another cost in the equation that we have to understand mutually," Home Depot CFO Richard McPhail said at a retail conference on April 3.
• "With broad economic uncertainty around global trade, growth has largely stalled," Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian stated in an earnings release.

Meanwhile, Levi Strauss & Co. president and CEO Michelle Gass is leaning on brand loyalty and reputation to help navigate macroeconomic challenges.

• "As an iconic brand with more than 170 years of history, we've weathered challenging times before," she said in an earnings call this week. "We have a playbook that begins with leveraging the strength of our brand and our deep connection with consumers.
• "We know, especially during times like these, people turn to the brands they know and trust and prioritize value and quality, and that's what Levi's has always stood for. "

Some are simply voicing frustration with Trump's tariff chaos.

• "So look, I think basically that the game has changed and now it's, it kind of doesn't matter where you go, I mean, except America," RH chairman and CEO Gary Friedman said on an earnings call right after Trump's tariff announcement on April 2.
• "Tariff is not a beautiful word. I disagree with that — we are in a global economy. ... You cannot apply this type of gridlock and this much friction to the world's trade," Life Time Group Holdings CEO Bahram Akradi said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.
• "These tariffs are turning me in to a dem," GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen quipped on X.

Zoom in: Internally, executives are highlighting the steps they took in advance to prepare for tariffs.

• Some have formed task forces, while others have opted for all-staff meetings to provide real-time updates and address employee questions.

Of note, privately held companies and nonprofits are choosing to stay quiet.

• "Some say that it's too soon to fully understand the ramifications, so they're holding on communicating until there's more clarity on what's happening and how it affects their organization," says Shallot Communications co-founder Tim Granholm.

What to watch: How business leaders communicate — and who they blame — should a recession take shape.

• "Most CEOs I talk to would say we are probably in a recession right now," BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said during a lunchtime appearance at the Economic Club of New York on Monday, according to Bloomberg.

More on Axios:

• Tariffs 101: What they are and how they work
• What a tariff recession might look like

Anti-American sentiment abroad has been on the rise, with President Trump's unpredictable trade policies exacerbating the issue.

Why it matters: Communication and marketing teams at multinational companies are grappling with how America's reputation might be impacting their own.

State of play: Since Trump took office in January, the average net favorability of the U.S. has fallen by roughly 20 points worldwide, with consumer markets in North America and Europe seeing some of the biggest declines, according to a Morning Consult analysis.

• Canadian consumers are among the most likely to avoid American brands due to U.S. trade policies.

In response, U.S. companies that operate internationally are preparing for backlash or boycotts as geopolitical tensions rise.

What they're saying: Engaging regional stakeholders — employees, vendors, partners and trade associations in the region — is important during moments of geopolitical tension, says Dave Samson, chief corporate affairs counsel at iQ360.

• "Business leaders should not shout from the mountaintops, because you don't want to invite unnecessary scrutiny, but opening up clear channels of communication with your employees, with your key stakeholders, is important," he said.
• "It seems like common sense, but in moments like this, people tend to hunker down when it's actually a time to speak out more, but not do it in a way that's going to invite public backlash."

Zoom in: One way to dodge backlash is to make sure regional marketing campaigns and consumer communications strike the right tone.

• "You're going to probably have some brand erosion," says Anne Marie Malecha, CEO of Dezenhall Resources. "I don't think there's any way around that right now, but the name of the game is survival. And survival happens by, first and foremost, doing no harm, no unforced errors."
• To avoid this, she adds, American multinationals should have communication experts in the region who "understand the culture in which they're operating" to make judgment calls on what locals might favor in terms of messaging.

Zoom out: Signaling to regional markets that you're anti-tariff could help soften the blow, says Lauren Tomlinson, principal at Cornerstone Government Affairs.

• "It's good to go out and talk about the impact that these tariffs will have on your particular business," she said. "For example, if you have to raise the cost of your product because it's more expensive to make, that is something that you should go out and talk about to kind of distance yourself from the tariff policy of the United States at the moment."

The bottom line: America's reputation "is the greatest geopolitical brand ever created," Wall Street Journal editor at large Gerry Baker recently wrote.

• "Brands have real value. It isn't always easy to calculate, but businesses from BlackBerry to Bud Light know when they have lost it. Destroying geopolitical brand value can be devastating too."

More on Axios:

• China vows to "fight to the end" over Trump's tariffs threat
• World leaders react to Trump's sweeping tariffs

There is now sand — a lot of it — in the gears of global commerce, and it won't be going away in the foreseeable future.

Why it matters: President Trump may have backed down on some of the most extreme — and hardest to justify — trade barriers he announced a week earlier. But the tariffs that remain in place still make for a more fractured global economy, albeit with slightly different fractures.

• Instead of waging an all-out trade war with practically all U.S. trading partners, all at once, the new policy alignment amounts to an escalated trade war with China amid ongoing skirmishes with the rest of the world.
• The era of frictionless global trade is over.

State of play: It's hard to overstate how much the escalation in U.S. trade policy over the last two months — and especially the last eight days — dwarfs anything in living memory.

• Even after Trump's retreat Wednesday, he is imposing a minimum 10% tariff on pretty much all goods from all countries. The last time the average tariff rate was that high was 1943.
• But a reciprocal 125% tariff on Chinese imports, plus additional tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles, brings the average effective tariff rate to 25.3%, per the Yale Budget Lab's calculations, the highest since 1909.
• Even after trade patterns shift toward lower-tariff countries (more Chinese manufacturing activity shifting to 10%-taxed Vietnam, for example), the Yale team estimates it will settle at 18.1%, the highest since 1934.

Between the lines: The big open question over the last eight days has been whether Trump's aggressive "reciprocal" tariffs were meant to be an over-the-top starting point for negotiation or a new standing feature of the global economy.

• Now we know that the answer is "yes."
• On one hand, he backed off the elevated tariffs for most countries for 90 days because, he claimed, 75 countries were clamoring to make a deal. That points to the "let's negotiate" theory.
• But the 10% baseline tariff looks to be the new cost of business for anyone relying on imports.
• It's distortionary and expensive, but low enough that there could be more room for firms to absorb it in the form of lower margins or tougher negotiations with suppliers than, say, the 46% levy originally proposed for Vietnam.

Zoom out: Wednesday's backdown shows that Trump, for all his trade war zeal, does respond to normal incentives. A plunging stock market, countless calls from CEOs and leaders of other countries, and frustrated Republican lawmakers clearly got his attention.

• The bond market's role looms particularly large, as a surge in long-term interest rates since Monday — and a corresponding plunge in Treasury bond prices — raised the prospect of ongoing damage to the U.S. government's ability to borrow.
• U.S. rivals surely took note; the notion of using the global bond markets as a tool of geopolitics is not unknown.

The bottom line: Global trade as most living Americans know it is over, even if the scale of the disruption ahead is lower than it was 24 hours ago.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on Thursday overcame a sizable revolt of his members and passed a budget resolution that was endorsed by President Trump.

Why it matters: It puts Republican leaders one critical step closer to being able to pass a hulking fiscal bill that includes $4 trillion in tax cuts and a $5 trillion debt ceiling increase.

• The path to success was not without its speed bumps: Johnson had to pull a Wednesday vote on the Senate budget resolution as fiscal hawks in his conference argued it didn't mandate nearly enough spending cuts.
• Johnson and the White House worked vigorously this week to reassure House Republicans that they would get the $1.5 trillion in cuts they are seeking.

What happened: The budget measure passed 216-214.

Democrats are bashing President Trump for sharing market advice with his Truth Social followers Wednesday hours before announcing a 90-day pause on most of his sweeping tariffs, elevating calls for a ban on congressional stock trading.

Why it matters: The badly bruised market soared on Wednesday following Trump's freeze on the historic levies — leaving some critics questioning who benefitted from the market mayhem.

• "BE COOL! Everything is going to work out well," Trump posted on Truth Social Wednesday morning.
• The minutes later he posted a separate message: "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!"
• Then, early Wednesday afternoon, Trump abruptly announced the decision to suspend all but 10% baseline tariffs while hiking China levies to 125%.

Driving the news: That timeline turned some Democratic heads.

• "These constant gyrations in policy provide dangerous opportunities for insider trading," Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) wrote on social media. On Thursday he shared a letter he co-authored with Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) to inquire who knew about the U-turn ahead of time.
• "An insider trading scandal is brewing," Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) chimed in. "Trump's 9:30am tweet makes it clear he was eager for his people to make money off the private info only he knew."
• Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) questioned in a video, "How is this not market manipulation?"

What they're saying: "It is the responsibility of the President of the United States to reassure the markets and Americans about their economic security in the face of nonstop media fearmongering," White House spokesperson Kush Desai told Axios.

• "Democrats railed against China's cheating for decades, and now they're playing partisan games instead of celebrating President Trump's decisive action yesterday to finally corner China," the statement said.
• A Securities and Exchange Commission spokesperson declined to comment to Axios.

By the numbers: The Dow soared nearly 8% Wednesday, the S&P 500 index ballooned by more than 9% and Nasdaq closed up 12%, Axios' Nathan Bomey reported.

• In a since-scrutinized video of the president introducing Charles Schwab in the Oval Office Wednesday afternoon, Trump joked that Schwab, "made two-and-a-half billion today."

Zoom out: Some progressive Dems used the trade flip-flop as an opportunity to urge for a long-floated ban on members of Congress trading stock.

• "Members of Congress should never be allowed to trade stocks. Period," Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) wrote on Bluesky.
• Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Colo.) re-upped his call for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to bring legislation banning congressional stock trading to the floor, adding, "enough is enough!"
• Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) echoed that sentiment, writing, "Any member of Congress who purchased stocks in the last 48 hours should probably disclose that now."
• She added she'd been "hearing some interesting chatter on the floor" and predicted "we're about to learn a few things" with the financial disclosure deadline looming on May 15.

Context: The STOCK Act, passed in 2012, requires members of Congress to file financial disclosures of their stock trades within 30 days and established new penalties for insider trading, according to the Campaign Legal Center.

• But lawmakers are not banned from investing in companies, even ones that their work may intersect with.
• A 2022 New York Times analysis of members' transactions between 2019 and 2021 found that at least 97 lawmakers bought or sold stock, bonds or other assets related to their work or reported similar transactions by their spouse or child.

Yes, but: Trump's news came as a shock to many Republicans on the Hill, Axios' Andrew Solender reported.

• Mixed messaging from the White House — and a lack of advanced notice before Trump backed down — left GOP allies recovering from tariff whiplash alongside rest of the country and griping that loyalists were not looped in on the plans.

The other side: U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer, who was testifying on Capitol Hill as Trump's announcement hit, said during questioning from Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.) that Trump's tariff pause isn't "market manipulation."

• Horsford replied, "Then what is it? Because it sure is not a strategy."
• Greer answered, "We're trying to reset the global trading system."

Go deeper: Inside the Oval: 3 reasons Trump buckled on tariffs

Russia on Thursday released Ksenia Karelina, a dual Russian-American citizen, as part of a prisoner exchange deal with the U.S., Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement.

Why it matters: This is the second major prisoner deal between the U.S. and Russia since President Trump took office.

• The swap comes as the Trump administration has prioritized improving relations with the Kremlin. On Thursday U.S. and Russian diplomats met again in Istanbul to discuss the normalization process.

What they are saying: "Ksenia Karelina is on a plane back home to the United States. She was wrongfully detained by Russia for over a year and President Trump secured her release," Rubio wrote on his X account.

Driving the news: Karelina was arrested by the Russian domestic security service in February 2024 while visiting her family in Russia.

• She was accused of treason after Russian agents found on her phone documents that showed she donated $50 to support humanitarian aid in Ukraine. She was sentenced to 12 years in prison last August.
• In return for her release, the U.S. released Arthur Petrov, a Russian-German national, who has been accused of exporting sensitives electronic components from the U.S. to the Russian military.
• Petrov was arrested in Cyprus in August 2023 at the request of the Biden administration and extradited to the U.S. to stand trial.

Behind the scenes: White House envoy Steve Witkoff raised Karelina's case in his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin last month, a U.S. official told Axios.

• "Witkoff told Putin to release Karelina as a sign of good will between the countries," the official said.
• After the Russians agreed in principle, the official said that CIA director John Ratcliffe began negotiating the deal with his Russian counterparts.
• The Russians gave the U.S. a list of prisoners they want released and eventually picked Petrov, the U.S. official said.
• In recent days, President Trump's envoy for hostages, Adam Boehler, and his team at the State Department joined the efforts to finalize the negotiations and coordinate the exchange.

The U.S. and Russia agreed to use the United Arab Emirates as the venue for the prisoner exchange.

• The Emirati ambassador to the U.S., Yousef al-Otaiba, welcomed Karelina at the Abu Dhabi airport.
• The Emirati foreign ministry said that representatives from both countries attended the exchange.

In Abu Dhabi, the #UAE Hosts Prisoner Exchange Process between #US and #Russia

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs @mofauae has announced the success of mediation efforts in a prisoner exchange between the United States of America and the Russian Federation. The process saw the… pic.twitter.com/4pqkqJVg6f

— Afra Al Hameli (@AfraMalHameli) April 10, 2025

The big picture: Thursday's swap is the second that the Trump admin has orchestrated with Moscow.

• In February, it swapped Alexander Vinnik, the Russian co-founder of a bitcoin exchange, to secure the freedom of American teacher Marc Fogel.
• Trump celebrated that exchange as a "fair deal" after panning Biden-era prisoner exchanges with Russia as imbalanced or otherwise poorly negotiated.

Go deeper: What's behind Trump's views on Ukraine and Russia

Editor's note: This story was updated with a new photo and additional reporting.

The European Union will hold off on about 21 billion euros of retaliatory duties against American exports after President Trump paused his tariff plans for 90 days.

Why it matters: It's another sign of cooling temperatures in what had been a rapidly escalating trade war between the U.S. and the rest of the world. Markets have begun bouncing back in response.

What they're saying: "We want to give negotiations a chance," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on X.

• "While finalising the adoption of the EU countermeasures that saw strong support from our Member States, we will put them on hold for 90 days."

Catch up quick: It was just Wednesday that the EU advanced a plan to tariff a list of U.S. goods, in response to the steel and aluminum tariffs Trump imposed in mid-March.

• But hours later, he stepped back from the more serious reciprocal tariffs he'd levied last week, including a 20% tax on the EU's exports.

What to watch: U.S. officials say they're about to embark on months of negotiations with dozens of countries, in an effort to craft longer-lasting trade deals.

• Talks with the EU are likely to figure prominently.

Go deeper: Trump pauses most tariffs, but these are still in effect

President Trump's boosters hailed his decision to pause tariff increases for countries around the world as a strategic masterstroke.

• But few are buying the spin. Trump buckled under tremendous, mounting-by-the-minute pressure from CEOs ... friends ... GOP senators ... the markets ... and bond prices. Trump himself admits he blinked when "people were getting a little queasy" about the bond market.

Why it matters: Inside the White House, the episode highlighted the competing views and roles of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick as they animated Trump's risky game with trade.

🔎 Inside the room: Both men were advising Trump in the Oval Office when he decided to post a message on Truth Social announcing the tariff pause for 90 days while the administration negotiated with as many as 75 countries.

• The move was based on three factors, according to three sources familiar with the meeting:
• Bessent and Lutnick told Trump their phones were burning up with countries calling to negotiate. One source described the message from the two as: "We've got all these great countries. They all want to come and talk. How do we do it?"
• The president and his advisers also agreed that China's decision to raise tariffs on the U.S. created an opportunity for Trump to pause the tariff hikes on other countries as a token of friendship. It would be an effort to "put a ring around China, and isolate them," an administration official said.
• After several days in which Trump steadfastly said the falling stock market didn't bother him, the market's continued slide, emerging problems in the bond market and the falling value of the dollar became impossible to ignore. Friendly world leaders, congressional allies, major donors and CEOs "were practically begging for a pause," another official said.

Flashback: In the back of everyone's mind in the White House was how the tanking stock market shot up briefly on Monday after a false report that Trump was considering a 90-day pause.

• "I can assure you that was on people's minds in the administration, and certainly on the president's," a third administration official said.

The sense of relief at Trump's announcement wasn't just visible in the stock market's jolt upward. It was palpable in the postures of Bessent and Lutnick, who quickly got in front of TV cameras and lavished praise on the president.

• "As Secretary Bessent stated, no one is better at creating maximum leverage than President Trump," a Treasury official said in a written statement, adding that China's officials "have now isolated themselves from the rest of the world and are suffering the consequences."

Reality check: The financial markets jumped Wednesday, but Trump's on-again/off-again tariff policy has estranged friend and foe alike, leading many to wonder why the administration couldn't have been more measured, clear and focused with its tariff plan.

• "The easier way to enter into trade negotiations with our major allies and tariff China would have been ... to enter into trade negotiations with our major allies and tariff China," conservative writer Rich Lowry wrote on X.

What's next: Led by Bessent and Lutnick, Trump's economic advisers now will engage in a country-by-country negotiation process that will take months. They say all decisions will be teed up for Trump, who'll make the final call on each deal.

• Trump's decision-making process isn't always predictable or data-based, which he acknowledged to reporters when asked about how he'll determine tariff exemptions.
• "Instinctively, more than anything else," Trump said. "You almost can't take a pencil to paper. It's really more of an instinct, I think, than anything else."

President Trump's epic tariff retreat shows there is no grand strategy for revolutionizing global trade, and that he's governing — as he always has — through gut instinct.

Why it matters: Trump's allies see a genius at work. His critics see a madman steering the economy toward crisis. And Wall Street sees, for the first time in weeks, a president who is receptive to external pain.

The big picture: Trump's stunning 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs — announced just one week after "Liberation Day" — caught virtually the entire world by surprise.

• In one fell swoop, Trump shelved his maximalist tariff ambitions, intensified his trade war with China, and unleashed one of the biggest stock market rallies since World War II.
• The tariff climbdown was vintage Trump: chaotic in execution, dramatic in tone, and instantly rebranded as a MAGA masterstroke.

What they're saying: "Many of you in the media clearly missed the art of the deal. You clearly failed to see what President Trump is doing here," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt scolded reporters.

• "You have been watching the greatest economic master strategy from an American President in history," tweeted White House adviser Stephen Miller.

Zoom in: The thinking in MAGA world goes like this: By imposing tariffs on every country in the world, Trump has gained leverage over the 75+ trading partners who have approached the White House eager to make a deal.

• China — which did not cooperate, and instead retaliated with its own 84% tariffs on the U.S. — has exposed itself as a "bad actor," argued Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
• "This was [Trump's] strategy all along. You might even say that he goaded China into a bad position," Bessent said, repeatedly denying that the market reaction played any role in the walk back.

Reality check: Plenty of Trump-friendly investors, such as hedge fund titan Bill Ackman, are thrilled with this development. But there's little evidence that it was the master plan all along.

• When an errant headline claimed Monday that Trump was considering a 90-day pause for all countries except China, the White House blasted it as "fake news."
• That same day, Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro wrote in the Financial Times: "This is not a negotiation. For the U.S., it is a national emergency triggered by trade deficits caused by a rigged system."
• As recently as Wednesday, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer spent hours on Capitol Hill publicly defending Trump's reciprocal tariffs — only to have the rug pulled out from under him in the middle of a hearing.

Between the lines: Whether or not Trump's plan was always to pause the tariffs for negotiations, the reality is that he was facing massive pressure on multiple fronts leading up to the decision.

• Five polls conducted entirely after "Liberation Day" showed a significant dip in Trump's approval rating, with a consistent majority of Americans expressing opposition to his tariff plans.
• MAGA influencers who played a major role in Trump's election were in open revolt as the stock market melted down, wiping out trillions of dollars in value.
• Corporate leaders privately flooded Trump officials with phone calls, urging the administration to be more tactical. Trump admitted to watching JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon sound the alarm on Fox Business.
• Top financial institutions raised the odds of a recession, and — in what may have been the final straw — bond yields soared and triggered fears of a potential debt crisis.

The intrigue: Trump contradicted his own surrogates when he acknowledged Wednesday that he was concerned traders were "getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid" — and that "you have to have flexibility."

• "The bond market is very tricky. I was watching it. But if you look at it now, it's beautiful," Trump told reporters after his tariff reversal.
• In a hot mic moment as the market surged Wednesday, Trump mused to a Republican senator: "[Dow] up 2,500 points. Nobody has ever heard of it. Gotta be a record."

The bottom line: Trump's gut move may have saved the stock market — but it left the global trading system and American businesses in a state of whiplash.

• Tariffs are still much higher than they were a week ago, the U.S. in a full-on trade war with China, and recession is very much still a possibility.
• And now, a new question has emerged for CEOs and investors: When and why should they trust Trump?

MAGA media is gearing up to go to battle for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in his primary fight against mainstream Republican Sen. John Cornyn next year.

Why it matters: The Cornyn-Paxton race is emerging as an early proxy war between the establishment and Trump wings of the party, with some of the party's biggest bullhorns getting off the sidelines.

• Top MAGA luminaries — working to cement President Trump's hold on the party and eradicate even the perception of dissent — have expressed skepticism of Cornyn in part due to stances like support for arming Ukraine and a bipartisan gun reform bill.
• In Paxton, MAGA sees a pro-Donald Trump knife fighter worthy of their support.

Zoom in: Charlie Kirk, the podcaster with close White House ties, had Paxton on his show Wednesday. Kirk knocked Cornyn for "questionable votes" and said that "a warning shot is necessary to make sure the uniparty is put on defense."

• Steve Bannon, the powerful host of "War Room," told us he plans to host Paxton on his show and cover the race "a ton," accusing Cornyn of being the "epitome of the establishment."

State of play: Cornyn was bullish in the aftermath of Paxton's announcement, touting his support for Trump's priorities and panning his opponent's past legal troubles.

• In 2023, Paxton was impeached but not convicted for allegedly using his office to help an Austin real estate developer and improperly firing some staffers who reported him to the authorities. He also allegedly had an extramarital affair. Paxton denies all the accusations.
• A Cornyn campaign spokesperson panned Paxton as a "fraud" and noted the senator "voted with President Trump more than 95% of current Senators" during the president's first term.
• "This will be a spirited campaign, and we assure Texans they will have a real choice when this race is over," the spokesperson said.

Paxton swatted away Cornyn's proximity to Trump, saying on Kirk's show that "he's going to be a good boy for the next year and a half, and then he'll go back to being what he is, which is a moderate."

The bottom line: Texas has hosted notable proxy wars before, including over Paxton's impeachment, a school choice push by hardliners and a fight over the state House's speakership. But it hasn't seen a fight like this at the federal level at a time when the broader GOP is so beholden to an incumbent president. Cue the fireworks.

• "It's the Cornyn-Bush faction, the business community that runs Texas versus the grassroots, MAGA, Trump base," Bannon said.

To make a manufacturing renaissance happen in America, President Trump needs three things to happen simultaneously:

1. The private sector needs to commit capital, in size and with confidence, to support a national campaign to build factories, ships and the like.
2. There needs to be a willing labor force for that construction — either American workers agreeing to take lower-wage construction jobs, or a reversal of the immigration crackdown that's straining the labor market.
3. All of the above needs to happen, nationally and in real time, without runaway inflation, as everyone seeks the same steel, lumber, workers, etc.

The big picture: No one can yet square that magical thinking with reality. Until they do, trillions of dollars in investments may be on hold.

How it works: The administration sees things progressing in a simple line.

• Trump (possibly) imposes tariffs, companies opt to re-shore their manufacturing, American workers get good jobs, the economy thrives, everyone's happy.

Yes, but: The problem comes when you try to dig in on how long it'll take, and what'll happen in the meantime.

• For example: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was asked on CNBC last week about CEOs freezing up and not making big decisions — like building factories — because of the uncertainty in this environment.
• Lutnick, after a diatribe about trade rules, potato exports and french fries, said simply "There will become a balance. Interest rates will be much, much lower. The United States of America will be much, much stronger."
• Lutnick's not putting a timetable on how long Americans will have to eat the pain of the transition, because no one knows how long it will take.
• And now, add the fundamental problem of the world not really knowing with any confidence whether Trump's tariffs will stick at all.

That leaves the country in a state of radical uncertainty, with a void only the private sector can fill through a massive surge in activity.

• That may not happen.
• "(We) haven't learned much new on how trade policy uncertainty is expected to affect investment spending, but we have no reason to revisit our prior conclusion that this uncertainty will be a headwind to capex growth later this year," JPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli wrote last week of the new tariffs.
• In other words, even with Trump's early manufacturing wins like Apple and Hyundai, there's no reason to think businesses, by and large, are incentivized to spend big.
• They're not necessarily starting from a strong foundation either — as Axios Pittsburgh's Ryan Deto reports, the Rust Belt's decline was decades in the making, and pre-dates the modern expansion of free trade.
• "We are just not that economy anymore, nationally or locally," PNC chief economist Gus Faucher said.

The intrigue: It's not just finding the will, workers and materials to build the new factories the administration envisages changing America. The administration wants the U.S. to build the ships to carry the output of those factories around the world, too.

• We don't currently do that in any kind of scale. The investment would be massive. And even with the administration reportedly pulling back on a plan to charge massive port fees to Chinese ships, the prospect of requiring a bigger U.S. fleet is daunting.
• "One shipyard in China made more commercial ships last year than the total number the U.S. has produced since World War Two," Flexport CEO Ryan Peterson wrote on X Monday in a lengthy thread criticizing the port fee proposal.

The irony is that since April 2, there hasn't been a flurry of manufacturing announcements — but there have been plant closures, including reports of car makers pausing production at some factories and laying off workers (which Trump adviser Peter Navarro said they had "no business" doing.)

The bottom line: President Trump seeks a fundamental reordering of the American economy that requires millions of people to commit trillions of dollars in capital and labor to rebuild industries the country hasn't had for decades.

• Thus far, there aren't many volunteers to start.

Many Republicans in Congress were shell shocked Wednesday when President Trump abruptly announced that he was pausing his sweeping reciprocal tariffs for every country except China.

Why it matters: For some GOP lawmakers, the lack of notice from the administration was part of a disturbing pattern that has left them struggling to display the kind of loyalty the president demands of his party.

• "If they would just communicate with us more on messaging, we would be able to support the president better," said one House Republican, speaking on the condition of anonymity to criticize the White House.
• The lawmaker said that, had Trump alerted members about his plans, "it would have given us a lot more ammo … to go against the Democrats."
• A second House Republican griped that they "found out from the press," concurring that Trump hurts his loyalists in Congress by not giving them more visibility into his plans.

What happened: Trump announced in a post on Truth Social that he was scaling tariffs on China up to 125% while reducing them to 10% for every other country.

• The announcement came after many Republican lawmakers leapt to defend the president's policy despite many also having misgivings — particularly about the negative stock market reaction.
• Despite fuming at the White House over their lack of communications, some GOP free traders also met the announcement with a sigh of relief.

State of play: The Ways & Means Committee was in the middle of questioning U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer at a public hearing when Trump made his announcement.

• Rep. Blake Moore (R-Utah), noting that he questioned Greer shortly before the president's announcement, quipped: "Was it me that saved the stock market?"
• "It would have been very helpful to members of the committee to have that information," said the first GOP lawmaker who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Zoom out: Gripes from members of Congress — particularly House members — about not getting enough information from the administration are a tale as old as Washington itself. Former President Biden had his own issues on that front.

• But this is not the first time the issue has arisen for the second Trump White House after a few months in office.
• Lawmakers have also complained about not getting more of a heads up on inflammatory actions by DOGE, according to non-profit news outlet NOTUS.
• The White House didn't respond to a request for comment.

Even senior House Republicans on key committees told Axios they got no advanced notice about the pause.

• House Appropriations Committee chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.), asked hours after the announcement whether it came as a surprise, said, "I don't know anything about it."

Yes, but: Other House Republicans, while conceding they got no advance warning, defended the president and argued it's fair for him not to share his plans

• Several cited the risk of leaks. "Unfortunately when you do release it to members of Congress, then they release it to members of the public." said Rep. Robert Aderholt (R-Ala.).
• Said Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.): "I understand why some people might be frustrated, but … I think people understand that the president is going to negotiate in a time-sensitive manner. That isn't going to always mean checking in with each other."
• A third Republican who spoke on the condition of anonymity cited the possibility that their colleagues may have used the information to make stock trades.