While CEOs have stayed mostly mum on tariffs for fear of retribution, earnings season has forced some executives to discuss how Trump's trade policies could affect their businesses.

Why it matters: America's top business leaders are starting to communicate through the uncertainty in anticipation of changing consumer habits and prices.

What they're saying: "It's clearly a fluid environment. And while we don't know everything that's going to happen, of course, we do know what our priorities are, and we know what our purpose is, and we'll be focused on keeping prices as low as we can. We'll be focused on managing our inventory and our expenses well," Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said during an investor presentation on Wednesday.

• "There is increasing consumer uncertainty and concern over returning to more inflation, and this has impacted consumer sentiment, particularly in the last month. ... as many are worried about the future, job security, and rising costs," McCormick chairman, president and CEO Brendan Foley said last month.
• "When it comes to tariffs, that's just another cost in the equation that we have to understand mutually," Home Depot CFO Richard McPhail said at a retail conference on April 3.
• "With broad economic uncertainty around global trade, growth has largely stalled," Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian stated in an earnings release.

Meanwhile, Levi Strauss & Co. president and CEO Michelle Gass is leaning on brand loyalty and reputation to help navigate macroeconomic challenges.

• "As an iconic brand with more than 170 years of history, we've weathered challenging times before," she said in an earnings call this week. "We have a playbook that begins with leveraging the strength of our brand and our deep connection with consumers.
• "We know, especially during times like these, people turn to the brands they know and trust and prioritize value and quality, and that's what Levi's has always stood for. "

Some are simply voicing frustration with Trump's tariff chaos.

• "So look, I think basically that the game has changed and now it's, it kind of doesn't matter where you go, I mean, except America," RH chairman and CEO Gary Friedman said on an earnings call right after Trump's tariff announcement on April 2.
• "Tariff is not a beautiful word. I disagree with that — we are in a global economy. ... You cannot apply this type of gridlock and this much friction to the world's trade," Life Time Group Holdings CEO Bahram Akradi said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.
• "These tariffs are turning me in to a dem," GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen quipped on X.

Zoom in: Internally, executives are highlighting the steps they took in advance to prepare for tariffs.

• Some have formed task forces, while others have opted for all-staff meetings to provide real-time updates and address employee questions.

Of note, privately held companies and nonprofits are choosing to stay quiet.

• "Some say that it's too soon to fully understand the ramifications, so they're holding on communicating until there's more clarity on what's happening and how it affects their organization," says Shallot Communications co-founder Tim Granholm.

What to watch: How business leaders communicate — and who they blame — should a recession take shape.

• "Most CEOs I talk to would say we are probably in a recession right now," BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said during a lunchtime appearance at the Economic Club of New York on Monday, according to Bloomberg.

More on Axios:

• Tariffs 101: What they are and how they work
• What a tariff recession might look like

Anti-American sentiment abroad has been on the rise, with President Trump's unpredictable trade policies exacerbating the issue.

Why it matters: Communication and marketing teams at multinational companies are grappling with how America's reputation might be impacting their own.

State of play: Since Trump took office in January, the average net favorability of the U.S. has fallen by roughly 20 points worldwide, with consumer markets in North America and Europe seeing some of the biggest declines, according to a Morning Consult analysis.

• Canadian consumers are among the most likely to avoid American brands due to U.S. trade policies.

In response, U.S. companies that operate internationally are preparing for backlash or boycotts as geopolitical tensions rise.

What they're saying: Engaging regional stakeholders — employees, vendors, partners and trade associations in the region — is important during moments of geopolitical tension, says Dave Samson, chief corporate affairs counsel at iQ360.

• "Business leaders should not shout from the mountaintops, because you don't want to invite unnecessary scrutiny, but opening up clear channels of communication with your employees, with your key stakeholders, is important," he said.
• "It seems like common sense, but in moments like this, people tend to hunker down when it's actually a time to speak out more, but not do it in a way that's going to invite public backlash."

Zoom in: One way to dodge backlash is to make sure regional marketing campaigns and consumer communications strike the right tone.

• "You're going to probably have some brand erosion," says Anne Marie Malecha, CEO of Dezenhall Resources. "I don't think there's any way around that right now, but the name of the game is survival. And survival happens by, first and foremost, doing no harm, no unforced errors."
• To avoid this, she adds, American multinationals should have communication experts in the region who "understand the culture in which they're operating" to make judgment calls on what locals might favor in terms of messaging.

Zoom out: Signaling to regional markets that you're anti-tariff could help soften the blow, says Lauren Tomlinson, principal at Cornerstone Government Affairs.

• "It's good to go out and talk about the impact that these tariffs will have on your particular business," she said. "For example, if you have to raise the cost of your product because it's more expensive to make, that is something that you should go out and talk about to kind of distance yourself from the tariff policy of the United States at the moment."

The bottom line: America's reputation "is the greatest geopolitical brand ever created," Wall Street Journal editor at large Gerry Baker recently wrote.

• "Brands have real value. It isn't always easy to calculate, but businesses from BlackBerry to Bud Light know when they have lost it. Destroying geopolitical brand value can be devastating too."

More on Axios:

• China vows to "fight to the end" over Trump's tariffs threat
• World leaders react to Trump's sweeping tariffs

There is now sand — a lot of it — in the gears of global commerce, and it won't be going away in the foreseeable future.

Why it matters: President Trump may have backed down on some of the most extreme — and hardest to justify — trade barriers he announced a week earlier. But the tariffs that remain in place still make for a more fractured global economy, albeit with slightly different fractures.

• Instead of waging an all-out trade war with practically all U.S. trading partners, all at once, the new policy alignment amounts to an escalated trade war with China amid ongoing skirmishes with the rest of the world.
• The era of frictionless global trade is over.

State of play: It's hard to overstate how much the escalation in U.S. trade policy over the last two months — and especially the last eight days — dwarfs anything in living memory.

• Even after Trump's retreat Wednesday, he is imposing a minimum 10% tariff on pretty much all goods from all countries. The last time the average tariff rate was that high was 1943.
• But a reciprocal 125% tariff on Chinese imports, plus additional tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles, brings the average effective tariff rate to 25.3%, per the Yale Budget Lab's calculations, the highest since 1909.
• Even after trade patterns shift toward lower-tariff countries (more Chinese manufacturing activity shifting to 10%-taxed Vietnam, for example), the Yale team estimates it will settle at 18.1%, the highest since 1934.

Between the lines: The big open question over the last eight days has been whether Trump's aggressive "reciprocal" tariffs were meant to be an over-the-top starting point for negotiation or a new standing feature of the global economy.

• Now we know that the answer is "yes."
• On one hand, he backed off the elevated tariffs for most countries for 90 days because, he claimed, 75 countries were clamoring to make a deal. That points to the "let's negotiate" theory.
• But the 10% baseline tariff looks to be the new cost of business for anyone relying on imports.
• It's distortionary and expensive, but low enough that there could be more room for firms to absorb it in the form of lower margins or tougher negotiations with suppliers than, say, the 46% levy originally proposed for Vietnam.

Zoom out: Wednesday's backdown shows that Trump, for all his trade war zeal, does respond to normal incentives. A plunging stock market, countless calls from CEOs and leaders of other countries, and frustrated Republican lawmakers clearly got his attention.

• The bond market's role looms particularly large, as a surge in long-term interest rates since Monday — and a corresponding plunge in Treasury bond prices — raised the prospect of ongoing damage to the U.S. government's ability to borrow.
• U.S. rivals surely took note; the notion of using the global bond markets as a tool of geopolitics is not unknown.

The bottom line: Global trade as most living Americans know it is over, even if the scale of the disruption ahead is lower than it was 24 hours ago.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on Thursday overcame a sizable revolt of his members and passed a budget resolution that was endorsed by President Trump.

Why it matters: It puts Republican leaders one critical step closer to being able to pass a hulking fiscal bill that includes $4 trillion in tax cuts and a $5 trillion debt ceiling increase.

• The path to success was not without its speed bumps: Johnson had to pull a Wednesday vote on the Senate budget resolution as fiscal hawks in his conference argued it didn't mandate nearly enough spending cuts.
• Johnson and the White House worked vigorously this week to reassure House Republicans that they would get the $1.5 trillion in cuts they are seeking.

What happened: The budget measure passed 216-214.

Democrats are bashing President Trump for sharing market advice with his Truth Social followers Wednesday hours before announcing a 90-day pause on most of his sweeping tariffs, elevating calls for a ban on congressional stock trading.

Why it matters: The badly bruised market soared on Wednesday following Trump's freeze on the historic levies — leaving some critics questioning who benefitted from the market mayhem.

• "BE COOL! Everything is going to work out well," Trump posted on Truth Social Wednesday morning.
• The minutes later he posted a separate message: "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!"
• Then, early Wednesday afternoon, Trump abruptly announced the decision to suspend all but 10% baseline tariffs while hiking China levies to 125%.

Driving the news: That timeline turned some Democratic heads.

• "These constant gyrations in policy provide dangerous opportunities for insider trading," Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) wrote on social media. On Thursday he shared a letter he co-authored with Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) to inquire who knew about the U-turn ahead of time.
• "An insider trading scandal is brewing," Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) chimed in. "Trump's 9:30am tweet makes it clear he was eager for his people to make money off the private info only he knew."
• Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) questioned in a video, "How is this not market manipulation?"

What they're saying: "It is the responsibility of the President of the United States to reassure the markets and Americans about their economic security in the face of nonstop media fearmongering," White House spokesperson Kush Desai told Axios.

• "Democrats railed against China's cheating for decades, and now they're playing partisan games instead of celebrating President Trump's decisive action yesterday to finally corner China," the statement said.
• A Securities and Exchange Commission spokesperson declined to comment to Axios.

By the numbers: The Dow soared nearly 8% Wednesday, the S&P 500 index ballooned by more than 9% and Nasdaq closed up 12%, Axios' Nathan Bomey reported.

• In a since-scrutinized video of the president introducing Charles Schwab in the Oval Office Wednesday afternoon, Trump joked that Schwab, "made two-and-a-half billion today."

Zoom out: Some progressive Dems used the trade flip-flop as an opportunity to urge for a long-floated ban on members of Congress trading stock.

• "Members of Congress should never be allowed to trade stocks. Period," Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) wrote on Bluesky.
• Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Colo.) re-upped his call for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to bring legislation banning congressional stock trading to the floor, adding, "enough is enough!"
• Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) echoed that sentiment, writing, "Any member of Congress who purchased stocks in the last 48 hours should probably disclose that now."
• She added she'd been "hearing some interesting chatter on the floor" and predicted "we're about to learn a few things" with the financial disclosure deadline looming on May 15.

Context: The STOCK Act, passed in 2012, requires members of Congress to file financial disclosures of their stock trades within 30 days and established new penalties for insider trading, according to the Campaign Legal Center.

• But lawmakers are not banned from investing in companies, even ones that their work may intersect with.
• A 2022 New York Times analysis of members' transactions between 2019 and 2021 found that at least 97 lawmakers bought or sold stock, bonds or other assets related to their work or reported similar transactions by their spouse or child.

Yes, but: Trump's news came as a shock to many Republicans on the Hill, Axios' Andrew Solender reported.

• Mixed messaging from the White House — and a lack of advanced notice before Trump backed down — left GOP allies recovering from tariff whiplash alongside rest of the country and griping that loyalists were not looped in on the plans.

The other side: U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer, who was testifying on Capitol Hill as Trump's announcement hit, said during questioning from Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.) that Trump's tariff pause isn't "market manipulation."

• Horsford replied, "Then what is it? Because it sure is not a strategy."
• Greer answered, "We're trying to reset the global trading system."

Go deeper: Inside the Oval: 3 reasons Trump buckled on tariffs

Russia on Thursday released Ksenia Karelina, a dual Russian-American citizen, as part of a prisoner exchange deal with the U.S., Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement.

Why it matters: This is the second major prisoner deal between the U.S. and Russia since President Trump took office.

• The swap comes as the Trump administration has prioritized improving relations with the Kremlin. On Thursday U.S. and Russian diplomats met again in Istanbul to discuss the normalization process.

What they are saying: "Ksenia Karelina is on a plane back home to the United States. She was wrongfully detained by Russia for over a year and President Trump secured her release," Rubio wrote on his X account.

Driving the news: Karelina was arrested by the Russian domestic security service in February 2024 while visiting her family in Russia.

• She was accused of treason after Russian agents found on her phone documents that showed she donated $50 to support humanitarian aid in Ukraine. She was sentenced to 12 years in prison last August.
• In return for her release, the U.S. released Arthur Petrov, a Russian-German national, who has been accused of exporting sensitives electronic components from the U.S. to the Russian military.
• Petrov was arrested in Cyprus in August 2023 at the request of the Biden administration and extradited to the U.S. to stand trial.

Behind the scenes: White House envoy Steve Witkoff raised Karelina's case in his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin last month, a U.S. official told Axios.

• "Witkoff told Putin to release Karelina as a sign of good will between the countries," the official said.
• After the Russians agreed in principle, the official said that CIA director John Ratcliffe began negotiating the deal with his Russian counterparts.
• The Russians gave the U.S. a list of prisoners they want released and eventually picked Petrov, the U.S. official said.
• In recent days, President Trump's envoy for hostages, Adam Boehler, and his team at the State Department joined the efforts to finalize the negotiations and coordinate the exchange.

The U.S. and Russia agreed to use the United Arab Emirates as the venue for the prisoner exchange.

• The Emirati ambassador to the U.S., Yousef al-Otaiba, welcomed Karelina at the Abu Dhabi airport.
• The Emirati foreign ministry said that representatives from both countries attended the exchange.

In Abu Dhabi, the #UAE Hosts Prisoner Exchange Process between #US and #Russia

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs @mofauae has announced the success of mediation efforts in a prisoner exchange between the United States of America and the Russian Federation. The process saw the… pic.twitter.com/4pqkqJVg6f

— Afra Al Hameli (@AfraMalHameli) April 10, 2025

The big picture: Thursday's swap is the second that the Trump admin has orchestrated with Moscow.

• In February, it swapped Alexander Vinnik, the Russian co-founder of a bitcoin exchange, to secure the freedom of American teacher Marc Fogel.
• Trump celebrated that exchange as a "fair deal" after panning Biden-era prisoner exchanges with Russia as imbalanced or otherwise poorly negotiated.

Go deeper: What's behind Trump's views on Ukraine and Russia

Editor's note: This story was updated with a new photo and additional reporting.

The European Union will hold off on about 21 billion euros of retaliatory duties against American exports after President Trump paused his tariff plans for 90 days.

Why it matters: It's another sign of cooling temperatures in what had been a rapidly escalating trade war between the U.S. and the rest of the world. Markets have begun bouncing back in response.

What they're saying: "We want to give negotiations a chance," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on X.

• "While finalising the adoption of the EU countermeasures that saw strong support from our Member States, we will put them on hold for 90 days."

Catch up quick: It was just Wednesday that the EU advanced a plan to tariff a list of U.S. goods, in response to the steel and aluminum tariffs Trump imposed in mid-March.

• But hours later, he stepped back from the more serious reciprocal tariffs he'd levied last week, including a 20% tax on the EU's exports.

What to watch: U.S. officials say they're about to embark on months of negotiations with dozens of countries, in an effort to craft longer-lasting trade deals.

• Talks with the EU are likely to figure prominently.

Go deeper: Trump pauses most tariffs, but these are still in effect

President Trump's boosters hailed his decision to pause tariff increases for countries around the world as a strategic masterstroke.

• But few are buying the spin. Trump buckled under tremendous, mounting-by-the-minute pressure from CEOs ... friends ... GOP senators ... the markets ... and bond prices. Trump himself admits he blinked when "people were getting a little queasy" about the bond market.

Why it matters: Inside the White House, the episode highlighted the competing views and roles of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick as they animated Trump's risky game with trade.

🔎 Inside the room: Both men were advising Trump in the Oval Office when he decided to post a message on Truth Social announcing the tariff pause for 90 days while the administration negotiated with as many as 75 countries.

• The move was based on three factors, according to three sources familiar with the meeting:
• Bessent and Lutnick told Trump their phones were burning up with countries calling to negotiate. One source described the message from the two as: "We've got all these great countries. They all want to come and talk. How do we do it?"
• The president and his advisers also agreed that China's decision to raise tariffs on the U.S. created an opportunity for Trump to pause the tariff hikes on other countries as a token of friendship. It would be an effort to "put a ring around China, and isolate them," an administration official said.
• After several days in which Trump steadfastly said the falling stock market didn't bother him, the market's continued slide, emerging problems in the bond market and the falling value of the dollar became impossible to ignore. Friendly world leaders, congressional allies, major donors and CEOs "were practically begging for a pause," another official said.

Flashback: In the back of everyone's mind in the White House was how the tanking stock market shot up briefly on Monday after a false report that Trump was considering a 90-day pause.

• "I can assure you that was on people's minds in the administration, and certainly on the president's," a third administration official said.

The sense of relief at Trump's announcement wasn't just visible in the stock market's jolt upward. It was palpable in the postures of Bessent and Lutnick, who quickly got in front of TV cameras and lavished praise on the president.

• "As Secretary Bessent stated, no one is better at creating maximum leverage than President Trump," a Treasury official said in a written statement, adding that China's officials "have now isolated themselves from the rest of the world and are suffering the consequences."

Reality check: The financial markets jumped Wednesday, but Trump's on-again/off-again tariff policy has estranged friend and foe alike, leading many to wonder why the administration couldn't have been more measured, clear and focused with its tariff plan.

• "The easier way to enter into trade negotiations with our major allies and tariff China would have been ... to enter into trade negotiations with our major allies and tariff China," conservative writer Rich Lowry wrote on X.

What's next: Led by Bessent and Lutnick, Trump's economic advisers now will engage in a country-by-country negotiation process that will take months. They say all decisions will be teed up for Trump, who'll make the final call on each deal.

• Trump's decision-making process isn't always predictable or data-based, which he acknowledged to reporters when asked about how he'll determine tariff exemptions.
• "Instinctively, more than anything else," Trump said. "You almost can't take a pencil to paper. It's really more of an instinct, I think, than anything else."

President Trump's epic tariff retreat shows there is no grand strategy for revolutionizing global trade, and that he's governing — as he always has — through gut instinct.

Why it matters: Trump's allies see a genius at work. His critics see a madman steering the economy toward crisis. And Wall Street sees, for the first time in weeks, a president who is receptive to external pain.

The big picture: Trump's stunning 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs — announced just one week after "Liberation Day" — caught virtually the entire world by surprise.

• In one fell swoop, Trump shelved his maximalist tariff ambitions, intensified his trade war with China, and unleashed one of the biggest stock market rallies since World War II.
• The tariff climbdown was vintage Trump: chaotic in execution, dramatic in tone, and instantly rebranded as a MAGA masterstroke.

What they're saying: "Many of you in the media clearly missed the art of the deal. You clearly failed to see what President Trump is doing here," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt scolded reporters.

• "You have been watching the greatest economic master strategy from an American President in history," tweeted White House adviser Stephen Miller.

Zoom in: The thinking in MAGA world goes like this: By imposing tariffs on every country in the world, Trump has gained leverage over the 75+ trading partners who have approached the White House eager to make a deal.

• China — which did not cooperate, and instead retaliated with its own 84% tariffs on the U.S. — has exposed itself as a "bad actor," argued Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
• "This was [Trump's] strategy all along. You might even say that he goaded China into a bad position," Bessent said, repeatedly denying that the market reaction played any role in the walk back.

Reality check: Plenty of Trump-friendly investors, such as hedge fund titan Bill Ackman, are thrilled with this development. But there's little evidence that it was the master plan all along.

• When an errant headline claimed Monday that Trump was considering a 90-day pause for all countries except China, the White House blasted it as "fake news."
• That same day, Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro wrote in the Financial Times: "This is not a negotiation. For the U.S., it is a national emergency triggered by trade deficits caused by a rigged system."
• As recently as Wednesday, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer spent hours on Capitol Hill publicly defending Trump's reciprocal tariffs — only to have the rug pulled out from under him in the middle of a hearing.

Between the lines: Whether or not Trump's plan was always to pause the tariffs for negotiations, the reality is that he was facing massive pressure on multiple fronts leading up to the decision.

• Five polls conducted entirely after "Liberation Day" showed a significant dip in Trump's approval rating, with a consistent majority of Americans expressing opposition to his tariff plans.
• MAGA influencers who played a major role in Trump's election were in open revolt as the stock market melted down, wiping out trillions of dollars in value.
• Corporate leaders privately flooded Trump officials with phone calls, urging the administration to be more tactical. Trump admitted to watching JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon sound the alarm on Fox Business.
• Top financial institutions raised the odds of a recession, and — in what may have been the final straw — bond yields soared and triggered fears of a potential debt crisis.

The intrigue: Trump contradicted his own surrogates when he acknowledged Wednesday that he was concerned traders were "getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid" — and that "you have to have flexibility."

• "The bond market is very tricky. I was watching it. But if you look at it now, it's beautiful," Trump told reporters after his tariff reversal.
• In a hot mic moment as the market surged Wednesday, Trump mused to a Republican senator: "[Dow] up 2,500 points. Nobody has ever heard of it. Gotta be a record."

The bottom line: Trump's gut move may have saved the stock market — but it left the global trading system and American businesses in a state of whiplash.

• Tariffs are still much higher than they were a week ago, the U.S. in a full-on trade war with China, and recession is very much still a possibility.
• And now, a new question has emerged for CEOs and investors: When and why should they trust Trump?

MAGA media is gearing up to go to battle for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in his primary fight against mainstream Republican Sen. John Cornyn next year.

Why it matters: The Cornyn-Paxton race is emerging as an early proxy war between the establishment and Trump wings of the party, with some of the party's biggest bullhorns getting off the sidelines.

• Top MAGA luminaries — working to cement President Trump's hold on the party and eradicate even the perception of dissent — have expressed skepticism of Cornyn in part due to stances like support for arming Ukraine and a bipartisan gun reform bill.
• In Paxton, MAGA sees a pro-Donald Trump knife fighter worthy of their support.

Zoom in: Charlie Kirk, the podcaster with close White House ties, had Paxton on his show Wednesday. Kirk knocked Cornyn for "questionable votes" and said that "a warning shot is necessary to make sure the uniparty is put on defense."

• Steve Bannon, the powerful host of "War Room," told us he plans to host Paxton on his show and cover the race "a ton," accusing Cornyn of being the "epitome of the establishment."

State of play: Cornyn was bullish in the aftermath of Paxton's announcement, touting his support for Trump's priorities and panning his opponent's past legal troubles.

• In 2023, Paxton was impeached but not convicted for allegedly using his office to help an Austin real estate developer and improperly firing some staffers who reported him to the authorities. He also allegedly had an extramarital affair. Paxton denies all the accusations.
• A Cornyn campaign spokesperson panned Paxton as a "fraud" and noted the senator "voted with President Trump more than 95% of current Senators" during the president's first term.
• "This will be a spirited campaign, and we assure Texans they will have a real choice when this race is over," the spokesperson said.

Paxton swatted away Cornyn's proximity to Trump, saying on Kirk's show that "he's going to be a good boy for the next year and a half, and then he'll go back to being what he is, which is a moderate."

The bottom line: Texas has hosted notable proxy wars before, including over Paxton's impeachment, a school choice push by hardliners and a fight over the state House's speakership. But it hasn't seen a fight like this at the federal level at a time when the broader GOP is so beholden to an incumbent president. Cue the fireworks.

• "It's the Cornyn-Bush faction, the business community that runs Texas versus the grassroots, MAGA, Trump base," Bannon said.

To make a manufacturing renaissance happen in America, President Trump needs three things to happen simultaneously:

1. The private sector needs to commit capital, in size and with confidence, to support a national campaign to build factories, ships and the like.
2. There needs to be a willing labor force for that construction — either American workers agreeing to take lower-wage construction jobs, or a reversal of the immigration crackdown that's straining the labor market.
3. All of the above needs to happen, nationally and in real time, without runaway inflation, as everyone seeks the same steel, lumber, workers, etc.

The big picture: No one can yet square that magical thinking with reality. Until they do, trillions of dollars in investments may be on hold.

How it works: The administration sees things progressing in a simple line.

• Trump (possibly) imposes tariffs, companies opt to re-shore their manufacturing, American workers get good jobs, the economy thrives, everyone's happy.

Yes, but: The problem comes when you try to dig in on how long it'll take, and what'll happen in the meantime.

• For example: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was asked on CNBC last week about CEOs freezing up and not making big decisions — like building factories — because of the uncertainty in this environment.
• Lutnick, after a diatribe about trade rules, potato exports and french fries, said simply "There will become a balance. Interest rates will be much, much lower. The United States of America will be much, much stronger."
• Lutnick's not putting a timetable on how long Americans will have to eat the pain of the transition, because no one knows how long it will take.
• And now, add the fundamental problem of the world not really knowing with any confidence whether Trump's tariffs will stick at all.

That leaves the country in a state of radical uncertainty, with a void only the private sector can fill through a massive surge in activity.

• That may not happen.
• "(We) haven't learned much new on how trade policy uncertainty is expected to affect investment spending, but we have no reason to revisit our prior conclusion that this uncertainty will be a headwind to capex growth later this year," JPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli wrote last week of the new tariffs.
• In other words, even with Trump's early manufacturing wins like Apple and Hyundai, there's no reason to think businesses, by and large, are incentivized to spend big.
• They're not necessarily starting from a strong foundation either — as Axios Pittsburgh's Ryan Deto reports, the Rust Belt's decline was decades in the making, and pre-dates the modern expansion of free trade.
• "We are just not that economy anymore, nationally or locally," PNC chief economist Gus Faucher said.

The intrigue: It's not just finding the will, workers and materials to build the new factories the administration envisages changing America. The administration wants the U.S. to build the ships to carry the output of those factories around the world, too.

• We don't currently do that in any kind of scale. The investment would be massive. And even with the administration reportedly pulling back on a plan to charge massive port fees to Chinese ships, the prospect of requiring a bigger U.S. fleet is daunting.
• "One shipyard in China made more commercial ships last year than the total number the U.S. has produced since World War Two," Flexport CEO Ryan Peterson wrote on X Monday in a lengthy thread criticizing the port fee proposal.

The irony is that since April 2, there hasn't been a flurry of manufacturing announcements — but there have been plant closures, including reports of car makers pausing production at some factories and laying off workers (which Trump adviser Peter Navarro said they had "no business" doing.)

The bottom line: President Trump seeks a fundamental reordering of the American economy that requires millions of people to commit trillions of dollars in capital and labor to rebuild industries the country hasn't had for decades.

• Thus far, there aren't many volunteers to start.

Many Republicans in Congress were shell shocked Wednesday when President Trump abruptly announced that he was pausing his sweeping reciprocal tariffs for every country except China.

Why it matters: For some GOP lawmakers, the lack of notice from the administration was part of a disturbing pattern that has left them struggling to display the kind of loyalty the president demands of his party.

• "If they would just communicate with us more on messaging, we would be able to support the president better," said one House Republican, speaking on the condition of anonymity to criticize the White House.
• The lawmaker said that, had Trump alerted members about his plans, "it would have given us a lot more ammo … to go against the Democrats."
• A second House Republican griped that they "found out from the press," concurring that Trump hurts his loyalists in Congress by not giving them more visibility into his plans.

What happened: Trump announced in a post on Truth Social that he was scaling tariffs on China up to 125% while reducing them to 10% for every other country.

• The announcement came after many Republican lawmakers leapt to defend the president's policy despite many also having misgivings — particularly about the negative stock market reaction.
• Despite fuming at the White House over their lack of communications, some GOP free traders also met the announcement with a sigh of relief.

State of play: The Ways & Means Committee was in the middle of questioning U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer at a public hearing when Trump made his announcement.

• Rep. Blake Moore (R-Utah), noting that he questioned Greer shortly before the president's announcement, quipped: "Was it me that saved the stock market?"
• "It would have been very helpful to members of the committee to have that information," said the first GOP lawmaker who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Zoom out: Gripes from members of Congress — particularly House members — about not getting enough information from the administration are a tale as old as Washington itself. Former President Biden had his own issues on that front.

• But this is not the first time the issue has arisen for the second Trump White House after a few months in office.
• Lawmakers have also complained about not getting more of a heads up on inflammatory actions by DOGE, according to non-profit news outlet NOTUS.
• The White House didn't respond to a request for comment.

Even senior House Republicans on key committees told Axios they got no advanced notice about the pause.

• House Appropriations Committee chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.), asked hours after the announcement whether it came as a surprise, said, "I don't know anything about it."

Yes, but: Other House Republicans, while conceding they got no advance warning, defended the president and argued it's fair for him not to share his plans

• Several cited the risk of leaks. "Unfortunately when you do release it to members of Congress, then they release it to members of the public." said Rep. Robert Aderholt (R-Ala.).
• Said Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.): "I understand why some people might be frustrated, but … I think people understand that the president is going to negotiate in a time-sensitive manner. That isn't going to always mean checking in with each other."
• A third Republican who spoke on the condition of anonymity cited the possibility that their colleagues may have used the information to make stock trades.

President Trump said his sudden announcement to pause hard-hitting tariffs except on Chinese imports the day they took effect on Wednesday happened after he'd been thinking about the matter "for a few days."

The big picture: Trump's sweeping tariffs push sent stock markets spiralling and the president noted to reporters at the White House on Wednesday about his abrupt reversal the day they took effect that stocks had since surged.

• Trump said his decision to suspend all but 10% baseline tariffs while hiking China levies to 125%, which caught Republicans off-guard, "probably came together early this morning" after he discussed the matter with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
• Lutnick said on X Wednesday that he and Bessent "sat with the President while he wrote one of the most extraordinary Truth posts of his Presidency," in announcing the pause.

Zoom in: Trump said they "just wrote it up" with no access to lawyers. "We wrote it up from our hearts, right? It was written from the heart and I think it was well written, too," he said.

• "We don't want to hurt countries that don't need to be hurt, and they all want to negotiate. The only problem is ... you can only do so many at one time," he added.
• "We want to get it right; we want to take care of them, but we have to take care of our country so... But this was something certainly, we've been talking about for a period of time and we decided to pull the trigger today, and we're happy about it."

More from Axios:

• Trump pauses most tariffs, but these are still in effect
• Republicans fume as Trump blindsides them with tariff pause
• Trump's tariffs sparked blowback from all corners of his MAGA base

Editor's note: This article has been updated with more comment from President Trump and further context.

U.S. officials will screen immigrants' social media accounts for antisemitic content as "grounds for denying" immigration benefit requests, the Trump administration announced in a policy that immediately went into effect Wednesday.

The big picture: The new rule that was criticized by free speech advocacy groups affects green-card applicants, foreign students and immigrants "affiliated with educational institutions linked to antisemitic activity," per a U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services post.

Details: Consistent with President Trump's executive orders on antisemitism and foreign terrorism, the Department of Human Services "will enforce all relevant immigration laws to the maximum degree," the post said.

• The DHS will "protect the homeland" from extremists and terrorist, "including those who support antisemitic terrorism, violent antisemitic ideologies and antisemitic terrorist organizations such as Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, or Ansar Allah aka: "the Houthis,'" per the post.
• Immigration officials will consider social media content that indicates the "endorsing, espousing, promoting, or supporting antisemitic terrorism, antisemitic terrorist organizations, or other antisemitic activity as a negative factor" on applications, the post added.

What they're saying: "There is no room in the United States for the rest of the world's terrorist sympathizers, and we are under no obligation to admit them or let them stay here," said Tricia McLaughlin, DHS assistant secretary for public affairs.

• Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem "has made it clear that anyone who thinks they can come to America and hide behind the First Amendment to advocate for anti-Semitic violence and terrorism — think again," she added. "You are not welcome here."

The other side: "By surveilling visa and green card holders and targeting them based on nothing more than their protected expression, the administration trades America's commitment to free and open discourse for fear and silence, said the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) in social media posts.

• "Unfortunately, that chill appears to be the administration's aim."

Thought bubble: A little-known plan last year from the creators of Project 2025 called for using anti-Israeli remarks as a reason to deport student visa and green-card holder.

• "Project Esther suggests that the administration use allegations of antisemitism as a reason to strip visas from legal residents who speak out on pro-Palestinian issues."
• The Heritage Foundation blueprint gives the administration legal arguments to pursue these measures but does not say anything about antisemitism from conservatives.
• It does not mention Elon Musk, who had a green card before he became a U.S. citizen in 2022 and who gave what scholars and rights groups said was a Hitlergruß, or Nazi salute.

Go deeper: Migrant detainees should be in El Salvador prison "for the rest of their lives," Noem says

FBI chief Kash Patel has been replaced as acting director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives and replaced by Army Secretary Dan Driscoll, the ATF confirmed on Wednesday night.

The big picture: The Trump administration did not immediately give a reason for the unusual move to place a civilian military leader in charge of a federal law enforcement agency. Driscoll will continue to serve as Army secretary, per multiple reports.

Zoom in: "ATF can confirm the change in leadership to Acting Director Daniel Driscoll," said a spokesperson for the agency that's responsible for enforcing the U.S. firearms laws via email.

• The spokesperson did not immediately return Axios' request for comment in the evening on the reason behind the decision.
• A Justice Department official said Patel's removal was not a reflection on his performance in the job, per Reuters, which first reported on the change.

Zoom out: Patel, who was still listed as acting ATF director on the agency's site early Thursday, was sworn in for the role on Feb. 24 — three days after he became the FBI's ninth director.

• Representatives for the White House, the Justice Department and the Army did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

A group of House Democrats is launching a concerted campaign to force Elon Musk out of the Trump administration by May 30, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: The effort is hinged on a legal requirement that special government employees — the designation given to Musk as he leads DOGE — not serve past 130 days.

• "We demand an immediate public statement from your administration making clear that Musk will resign and surrender all decision making authority, as required by law, by May 30th," 77 House Democrats wrote in a letter to President Trump.
• They wrote that Musk would not be allowed to return as a special government employee for a year "without divesting from his companies, including Tesla and SpaceX."

What they're saying: Congressional Progressive Caucus chair Greg Casar (D-Texas), who led the letter, told Axios in an interview that it is just the opening salvo.

• "We're making it very clear that the public pressure is only going to ramp up on Republicans between here and May 30," he said.
• Casar said Democrats have "have legal tools at our disposal, political tools at our disposal," as well as the "full force of public pressure."

Reality check: The Trump administration, in the view of many Democrats, has already ignored not only federal statute but the Constitution in areas far more weighty than government ethics rules.

• The White House may end up pointing to an Office of Government Ethics memo last year — during the Biden administration — that said unpaid travel days do not count towards the 130 days.

The past eight days have proven to be perhaps the highest-stakes study yet in how President Trump negotiates.

Why it matters: "Many of you in the media clearly missed the art of the deal," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday, after the President announced a tariff pause.

• "You clearly failed to see what President Trump is doing here."

What happened:

Wednesday, April 2, Trump announced the "reciprocal" tariffs.

• "This is not a negotiation," a senior administration official told reporters. "This is a national emergency."

Thursday: "I don't think there's any chance that President Trump's going to back off his tariffs," Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on CNN, the day after Trump's announcement.

• The stock market was at the start of a historic two-day fall.

Saturday cracks appeared between pro-tariff trade adviser Peter Navarro and Elon Musk, who spoke via video at an Italian conference about the possibility of zero tariffs with Europe, saying that was "my view," per Bloomberg.

• He traded barbs with Navarro through the weekend.

Sunday, Bessent and Lutnick stuck to the script."The tariffs are coming," the commerce secretary told CBS's "Face the Nation. "He announced it and he wasn't kidding."

• Bessent struck a similar note on NBC's Meet the Press, when asked if the president was open to negotiation: "No. No, no, no. I think that we are going to have to see the path forward. Because, you know, after 20, 30, 40, 50 years of bad behavior, you can't just wipe the slate clean."

Meanwhile, fears grew over what would happen when stock markets opened the next day.

Monday morning, the President posted on Truth Social.: "Negotiations with other countries, which have also requested meetings, will begin taking place immediately."

• A few hours later, on X, Bessent announced trade negotiations with Japan.
• Meanwhile, that day, the Financial Times, published an opinion piece by Navarro: "This is not a negotiation," he wrote. "For the US, it is a national emergency triggered by trade deficits caused by a rigged system."

Tuesday: Musk called Navarro "truly a moron," over comments that the trade adviser had made about the Tesla CEO's business.

• Bessent told CNBC that since the "reciprocal tariffs" were announced, the White House had heard from 70 countries who wanted to come negotiate.
• "It's all President Trump's decision, and he had a view after 'Liberation Day' that we should go into quiet mode and let our partners think about the shock and awe that he presented," he said.
• "I would say that the negotiations are the result of the massive inflow of inbound calls to come and negotiate. It had nothing to do with the market," he said. "If they come to the table with solid proposals, I think we can end up with some good deals."

Wednesday, though no deals had yet been announced with other countries, Trump paused reciprocal tariffs.

• He left in place a 10% across-the board tax — and increased China tariffs to 125%.
• "The world is ready to work with President Trump to fix global trade, and China has chosen the opposite direction," Lutnick said on X.

What they're saying: "President Trump hiked tariffs on China and paused other reciprocal tariffs for 90 days after he and his economic team received good-faith commitments from a majority of our trading partners willing to strike favorable trade deals," White House spokesman Kush Desai said in an emailed statement.

• "The Trump administration remains committed to using every tool at our disposal to address the national emergency posed by chronic trade deficits – including both tariffs and negotiations."

Editor's Note: This story has been updated with White House comments.

The House fell into uncertain territory Wednesday evening after House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) pulled a scheduled vote on a key budget measure in the face of intractable right-wing opposition.

Why it matters: It is not clear what Johnson's next steps are, with the speaker conceding to reporters that a Thursday vote is not assured.

• The GOP speaker said he doesn't have "any intention to have us working here this weekend," but added, "If we have to come back next week, then we'll do that."
• The vote was nixed after dozens of conservative fiscal hawks refused to back the Senate version of the budget blueprint that requires far fewer spending cuts than the version the House passed in February.

What we're hearing: The withdrawn vote touched off a round of internal GOP finger-pointing reminiscent of the tumultuous days of the 118th Congress.

• "The speaker sadly hasn't communicated with any of us what's happening," griped one House Republican, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "I don't know why they're pulling out, and that hasn't been communicated to the rest of the conference."
• The lawmaker added: "It's incredibly sad, disappointing and embarrassing that once again we've pulled another piece of legislation off the floor, and it just shows how ineffective the speaker is at his job."

State of play: Johnson is now being pulled into negotiations with his right flank as he tries to find a way out of his bind.

• He told reporters there are a "few different ideas on the table," including amending the Senate bill or holding a House Republican conference meeting to hash out ideas.
• Changing the bill, however, would force the Senate to vote once again — which could put the two chambers in a stalemate.

President Trump's decision to pause many of the sweeping tariffs he announced only a week ago comes after all corners of the MAGAverse soured on financial earthquakes the levies unleashed.

The big picture: The self-inflicted market meltdown rattled Trump's allies across Wall Street, Silicon Valley billionaires like Elon Musk, anxious congressional Republicans and even supportive podcasters in the Manosphere.

• Investors sought an "off-ramp" from the tariffs markets showing extremely rare volatility.
• The magnitude of the tariffs caught the markets off guard, leading some major Wall Street banks and economists to predict a recession.

Zoom in: There are a long list of Trump allies speaking out against the tariffs over the past week.

Congressional Republicans balk at tariffs

Republican lawmakers were desperate to see Trump at least nudge the brakes and calm the markets.

• In a significant break with the president, at least a dozen House Republicans considered signing onto Rep. Don Bacon's (R-Neb.) bill to restrict the White House's ability to impose tariffs unilaterally, Axios reported.
• The Senate had voted on a similar measure to block Trump's tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, with four Republicans joining Democrats in voting yes.
• 57% of voters — including a quarter of Republicans — opposed the new tariffs, a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted over the weekend found. 39% of Americans support them.

Wall Street clamored for calm

Wall Street titans, including some of Trump's wealthy allies, have publicly urged caution as the tariffs tanked stock markets globally.

• DOGE leader Elon Musk, who has taken a multi-billion-dollar blow to his Tesla stock, called for more free trade this weekend, envisioning "a zero-tariff situation" between the U.S. and Europe. He's also publicly sniped at Trump tariff advocate Peter Navarro.
• Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, had warned of "economic nuclear winter" but praised Trump after announcement of the pause, saying, "This was brilliantly executed," adding, "Textbook, Art of the Deal."
• Prior to the pause, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon predicted a recession and for defaults to rise as Trump's tariffs roil global financial markets.
• Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller said that he doesn't support tariffs "exceeding 10%," the level of global levies Trump left in place.
• Howard Marks, co-founder of hedge fund Oaktree Capital, told Bloomberg the tariffs brought on the "biggest change in the environment" he's observed in his career.

MAGA podcasters soured on tariffs

Popular podcasters supporting Trump also voiced displeasure with the tariffs.

• Conservative commentator Ben Shapiro said on an episode of his "All-In" podcast that he thinks "the way that the tariff plan was rolled out is about as bad a rollout as you could do." He told his 7 million YouTube subscribers that the idea that tariffs are good and make the American economy strong "is wrongheaded."
• Podcaster Joe Rogan, who endorsed Trump's 2024 bid, called the president's feud with Canada "stupid" last month and lamented that Canadians "booed us over tariffs" during sporting events.

Go deeper: Trump scales back tariffs, except on China

OpenAI countersued Elon Musk on Wednesday, arguing in its lawsuit that he "could not tolerate seeing" the company's success and that he sought to build a direct competitor "not for humanity" but for himself.

The big picture: It's the latest in a high profile legal battle pitting the AI revolution's standard-bearing company against the tech billionaire who helped found it.

Driving the news: OpenAI said in a filing that Musk "made it his project to take down OpenAI" and that he "could not tolerate seeing such success for an enterprise he had abandoned and declared doomed."

• The company asked the federal court in San Francisco to hold Musk responsible for damage he caused them and to stop him from "further unlawful and unfair action."

What they're saying: "Elon's nonstop actions against us are just bad-faith tactics to slow down OpenAI and seize control of the leading AI innovations for his personal benefit," OpenAI said in a post on X, adding that they're countersuing to "stop him."

• Representatives for Musk did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment Wednesday evening.

Flashback: Musk helped found OpenAI in 2015 but has since become a bitter opponent and critic of the ChatGPT maker. He's also the founder of xAI, an OpenAI rival.

Catch up quick: Musk in August sued OpenAI and two of its founders, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, two months after withdrawing a similar suit.

• Musk's complaint, like the original lawsuit, alleged that Altman and Brockman abandoned the company's founding agreement by prioritizing profits over the public interest.
• OpenAI argued in a December filing that Musk's own emails showed he wanted OpenAI to have a for-profit component and wanted to own and run it himself.

Go deeper: OpenAI hits back at Elon Musk's lawsuit in court filing