A top National Institutes of Health scientist who specializes in nutrition and metabolism announced his sudden retirement after 21 years, citing censorship at the agency now headed by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Why it matters: RFK had pledged "radical transparency" after being confirmed as HHS secretary, but NIH senior investigator Kevin Hall said in a statement posted to his social media accounts that he has "experienced censorship" of his work and not enough support on his recent research into ultra-processed food addiction.

• Researchers have in recent weeks raised concerns about the impacts of the Trump administration's DOGE-driven cuts that have seen thousands of jobs slashed across top U.S. health agencies, along with spending cuts and freezes to federal grants.
• Now, health experts say the early retirement of "one of the most prominent nutrition researchers" at NIH could set back research into diet and chronic disease, per the New York Times.

What they're saying: "Unfortunately, recent events have made me question whether NIH continues to be a place where I can freely conduct unbiased science," said Hall in a statement posted to his social media accounts.

• "Specifically, I experienced censorship in the reporting of our research because of agency concerns that it did not appear to fully support preconceived narratives of my agency's leadership about ultra-processed food addiction," he said.
• "I was hoping this was an aberration. So, weeks ago I wrote to my agency's leadership expressing my concerns and requested time to discuss these issues, but I never received a response," according to Hall.
• "Without any reassurance there wouldn't be continued censorship or meddling in our research, I felt compelled to accept early retirement to preserve health insurance for my family. (Resigning later in protest of any future meddling or censorship would result in losing that benefit.)," he added.
• Representatives for the NIH did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening.

What we're watching: Hall said he hoped "to someday return to government service and lead a research program that will continue to provide gold-standard science to make Americans healthy."

Go deeper: White House plan would eliminate Head Start, make sweeping health cuts

Immigration is a winning issue for President Trump, while his historic tariffs have plummeting favorability among voters, polls show.

The big picture: Trump has made sweeping changes on both the immigration and economic fronts — two key areas he campaigned on and won voters' support. But now that he's implemented some of his promised policies, the poll numbers shows mixed reviews.

• A YouGov/Economist poll found Trump's approval in general among young voters has fallen from +5 at the start of his term to -29 now.
• Another survey from the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that only about 4 in 10 U.S. adults approve of the way he's handling the job.

Zoom in: Trump's tariffs have become a liability for him: A vast majority of voters (72%) said they think Trump's tariffs will hurt the U.S. economy in the short-term, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll of registered voters released last week.

• That's true across 97% of Democrats, 77% of independents and 44% of Republicans.
• A smaller majority (53%) said they think the tariffs will hurt the U.S. economy in the long-term too.

Between the lines: Trump's tariffs will likely lead to a faster rise in prices and weigh on economic growth, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday.

• That's exactly what voters fear: The price of food and consumer goods is their top economic worry, the Quinnipiac poll found.
• Trump campaigned on lowering prices for Americans weary of inflation, but Powell is the latest to suggest Trump's trade war might do the opposite, Axios' Courtenay Brown reports.

Zoom out: The president is polling better on immigration: About half of U.S. adults approve of his approach to immigration, per the AP-NORC survey.

• That's higher than his approval rating for his approach to the presidency as a whole, and indicates approval for the administration's immigration crackdown and deportation drives.
• The same poll found that only about 4 in 10 have a positive view of the way Trump is handling the economy and trade negotiations.

For the record: The Economist/YouGovPoll was done April 5-8, surveying 1.741 U.S. adult citizens. The margin of error is ±3.1% (adjusted for weighting) and ±2.9% (registered voters).

• The Quinnipiac University telephone survey was conducted from April 3-7 with responses from 1,407 self-identified registered voters with a margin of sampling error of ±2.6 percentage points.
• The AP-NORC poll of 1,229 adults was conducted March 20-24, using a sample drawn from NORC's probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for adults overall is ±3.9 percentage points.

Go deeper: Trump's tariffs "highly likely" to reignite inflation, Fed chair Powell says

Former top Pentagon spokesperson John Ullyot said on Wednesday night he'll resign at the end of the week, per a statement to Politico.

Why it matters: Ullyot's announcement comes in a week when the Pentagon reportedly placed three politically appointed senior aides to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on administrative leave in an investigation into leaks.

• The Pentagon has also faced scrutiny in recent weeks over The Atlantic's editor-in-chief being inadvertently added to a Signal group chat planning U.S. strikes in Yemen and the removal of Defense Department webpages deemed linked to diversity, equity, and inclusion, which Ullyot defended.
• He held senior roles in the first Trump administration and was acting assistant to the Secretary of Defense for public affairs until Sean Parnell was named the Pentagon's chief spokesperson in February and assumed the role.

What they're saying: "I made clear to Secretary Hegseth before the inauguration that I was not interested in being number two to anyone in public affairs," Ullyot told Politico.

• He said he'd assist in an acting role for two months.
• "Last month, as that time approached, the Secretary and I talked and could not come to an agreement on another good fit for me at DOD," he added. "So I informed him today that I will be leaving at the end of this week."
• Representatives for the Pentagon did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening.

Background: Ullyot is a Marine veteran who served in a senior communications role during President Trump's 2016 campaign.

• During the first Trump administration, he worked as assistant secretary for public and intergovernmental affairs at the Department of Veterans Affairs and later as White House National Security Council spokesperson.
• Most recently served as Pentagon press secretary, responding to outrage at the Defense Department's removal of webpages related to baseball and civil rights legend Jackie Robinson and the Navajo Code Talkers. The content of both was restored.
• Ullyot defended the administration's removal of webpages on DEI grounds, saying: "As Secretary Hegseth has said, DEI is dead at the Defense Department. Discriminatory Equity Ideology is a form of Woke cultural Marxism that has no place in our military."

The government of El Salvador denied a request from Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) to see or speak to his Maryland constituent who was mistakenly deported there, the senator said during a visit to the country on Wednesday.

The big picture: Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia is being held at a high-security prison for terrorists in El Salvador as the Trump administration evades courts' orders to facilitate his release, despite conceding that he was deported in an "administrative error."

• The U.S. government has accused Abrego Garcia, a Salvadorian national legally living in Maryland, of being a member of the MS-13 gang, though he has not been convicted of gang-related crimes.

Driving the news: Van Hollen told reporters he asked El Salvador Vice President Félix Ulloa during a meeting Wednesday why Abrego Garcia is being held if U.S. courts and the government of El Salvador have found no evidence that he's a member of the MS-13 gang.

• "His answer was that the Trump administration is paying El Salvador, the government of El Salvador to keep him at CECOT," the senator said, referring to the prison Centro de Confinamiento del Terrorismo.
• The White House and the Department of Homeland Security did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment.

What he's saying: Van Hollen said he asked to see Abrego Garcia or to speak to him on the phone to check on his condition.

• The vice president told Van Hollen he needs to make earlier provisions to visit CECOT, the senator said. Asked if he could visit Abrego Garcia if he returns next week, the vice president said he can't make that promise, per Van Hollen.
• The Maryland senator asked to speak to Abrego Garcia on the phone, and Ulloa said he cannot arrange that but can try to do so if the American embassy asks. Van Hollen said he will ask the embassy to do so.

Zoom out: AFL-CIO, one of the most powerful labor groups in the country, joined in on the calls for Abrego Garcia's return on Wednesday.

• The group said Abrego Garcia is an apprentice with SMART Union Local 100.
• "The labor movement in general sees one of their fellow brothers in a notoriously heinous situation in that prison, and it has people upset, scared," union president, Michael Coleman, said on CNN.

The latest: The same day the Justice Department released records from the Prince George's County Police Department in Maryland showing Abrego Garcia was arrested in 2019 on suspicion of being in the country illegally.

• According to the document, a confidential informant "who has provided truthful accurate information in the past" accused Abrego Garcia of being a member of MS-13.
• The documents do not show that Abrego Garcia was ever charged with gang-related crimes.

Catch up quick: El Salvador President Nayib Bukele said during a meeting with President Trump on Monday that he can't return Abrego Garcia to the U.S., nor will he release him within El Salvador.

• The Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration must take steps to "facilitate" his release from custody in El Salvador.
• But the administration has argued that simply means if El Salvador asks to send him back, the U.S. has to help.
• The Department of Justice said Tuesday that even if Abrego Garcia manages to return to the U.S., he will be detained and removed from the country.

Editor's note: This story has been updated throughout with additional information.

More from Axios:

• Senator traveling to El Salvador to visit mistakenly deported constituent
• Mistakenly deported man will be removed from U.S. if he manages to return: DOJ
• Timeline: The case of a Maryland man mistakenly deported to El Salvador

Temu and Shein plan to raise prices as they grapple with President Trump's move to close a trade loophole on cheap Chinese goods.

Why it matters: Imported shipments valued at less than $800 had enjoyed the "de minimis" exemption from U.S. tariffs, enabling foreign online retailers like Temu and Shein to sell super-cheap items to American consumers.

• But Trump recently moved to close that loophole and increase tariffs on small shipments.

Driving the news: Temu and Shein separately told customers in similar messages that they'll each be hiking prices beginning April 25 "due to recent changes in global trade rules and tariffs."

• "We've stocked up and stand ready to make sure your orders arrive smoothly during this time," Temu said.
• "Our team is working hard to improve your shopping experience and stay true to our mission: making fashion accessible for everyone," Shein said.

The big picture: Critics of the de minimis exemption say it has bludgeoned U.S. businesses, such as fashion retailer Forever 21, which recently began liquidating its U.S. stores after partly blaming the rise of Shein and Temu for its downfall.

• Supporters say that U.S. consumers will suffer from higher prices with the elimination of tariff-free shipments.

A Trump administration budget proposal calls for eliminating programs like Head Start, funding for community mental health clinics and initiatives aimed at preventing teen pregnancy in fiscal 2026.

Why it matters: The 64-page document, called a budget passback, reveals the breadth and deep extent to which the Trump administration is eyeing cuts to the federal health bureaucracy.

• The Office of Management and Budget document is just a proposal but offers a preview of what President Trump's spending priorities are. Congress has the final say in how discretionary funds are allocated.
• The document was first reported by the Washington Post.

Zoom in: The proposal calls for about $20 billion appropriated to a new agency within Health and Human Services called the Administration for a Healthy America. HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced last month that he planned to combine several existing agencies into this new entity.

• The document also requests $500 million to be allocated by the HHS secretary for activities that support the administration's so-called "Make America Healthy Again" initiative, per the document.

In all, about $40 billion, or one-third of the HHS discretionary budget, would be cut under the proposal compared with fiscal 2024 levels.

• The document suggests eliminating programs for rural health care providers, HIV treatment efforts, health care workforce initiatives and childhood lead poisoning. It does not say whether or how the work done by these programs would continue.
• Some offices that the document suggests could be eliminated, including the Administration for Preparedness and Response, have existing legal authorities, with officials confirmed by the Senate.

Reality check: No final funding decisions have been made yet, OMB communications director Rachel Cauley told Axios.

Zoom out: There had been earlier reports that Head Start, a storied program created as part of President Johnson's War on Poverty, was on the chopping block.

• That was an aim of Project 2025.
• Ending the program, which provides early childhood education, nutrition and health care help to nearly 800,000 kids and their families, would have "catastrophic" consequences for some of the poorest people in the U.S. — with outsized impacts in rural communities.
• "I had a very inspiring tour [of a Head Start program]," Kennedy said last month. "I saw a devoted staff and a lot of happy children. They are getting the kind of education and socialization they need, and they are also getting a couple of meals a day."

Go deeper: Advocates worry over possible cuts to Head Start

The Trump administration asked the Internal Revenue Service to rescind Harvard's tax-exempt status, multiple outlets reported Wednesday, citing anonymous sources.

Why it matters: The Trump administration is escalating its retaliation against the Ivy League university after it refused to comply with the administration's list of demands.

Catch up quick: It cut $2.2 billion in grants and $60 million in contracts to Harvard.

Driving the news: Trump on Tuesday said on Truth Social that Harvard should "lose its tax exempt status and be taxed as a political entity."

• He said the university was pushing politics and ideology.
• "Tax exempt status is totally contingent on acting in the public interest," he wrote.

Zoom out: The majority of public and private universities and colleges are tax-exempt entities because of their educational purposes or because they're state governmental entities, according to the Association of American Universities.

• The federal government has recognized the educational mission "as fundamental to fostering the productive and civic capacity of its citizens."

Go deeper: How Trump wants to assert control at Harvard and elite colleges

A federal judge said Wednesday that he has found probable cause to hold the Trump administration in contempt for defying his order to halt deportation flights of alleged Venezuelan gang members to El Salvador.

Why it matters: The Trump administration's defiance of U.S. District Judge James Boasberg's order last month has sparked a high-stakes legal battle that could test the limits of President Trump's deportation powers.

• It has also proven to be a political lightning rod, with both administration officials and Democratic lawmakers visiting the infamous El Salvadoran mega-prison where the migrants are being sent.

The big picture: The Trump administration's decision to proceed with the deportation flights displayed a "willful disregard" for the order, Boasberg wrote in a ruling Wednesday.

• The administration has defended its decision to follow through with the deportations under the Alien Enemies Act of 1789, arguing the planes were already in international waters at the time and the ruling did not apply.
• This reasoning, Boasberg noted, "requires ignoring the clear context in which the Order was issued."

Zoom in: Boasberg wrote that the Trump administration had been given "ample opportunity to rectify or explain their actions. None of their responses has been satisfactory."

• "Probable cause exists to find the Government in criminal contempt," he added.

The other side: White House communications director Steven Cheung wrote on X Wednesday that the Trump administration plans "to seek immediate appellate relief."

• "The President is 100% committed to ensuring that terrorists and criminal illegal migrants are no longer a threat to Americans and their communities across the country," Cheung added.

Zoom out: Last month, Trump invoked an 18th-century wartime authority to justify the deportation of some 250 Venezuelan migrants it accused of being members of the Tren de Aragua gang.

• The migrants were subsequently transferred to El Salvador's Center for Terrorism Confinement (CECOT), where Boasberg has warned they are likely to suffer "significant harm."
• Meanwhile, Republicans have targeted Boasberg for impeachment for attempting to block the deportations.

What we're watching: Boasberg said he would allow the court to attempt to rectify its violation voluntarily. If they fail to do so, the court will try to determine which officials are responsible for the order's violation.

• The court would then request the Justice Department to prosecute the responsible individuals.
• If the administration "declines" to do so, "the Court will 'appoint another attorney to prosecute the contempt,'" Boasberg added.

Editor's note: This is a developing story. Please check back for updates.

Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-Ill.) is the latest Democratic trying to organize an official congressional delegation to El Salvador, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: There is a flood of interest among Democratic lawmakers to travel to the central American country, where the Trump administration has been sending deportees to a maximum security prison.

• Ramirez, in a letter to House Homeland Security Committee chair Mark Green (R-Tenn.) first obtained by Axios, requested he authorize an official CODEL to El Salvador.

President Trump expanded the portfolio of his adviser Adam Boehler and appointed him as special envoy for hostage response, according to a notification sent to Congress on April 4 and obtained by Axios.

• Boehler will coordinate across agencies on hostage issues and report to Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The intrigue: Boehler faced a political firestorm in March after Axios revealed he had met directly with Hamas officials — making him the first U.S. official ever to do so.

• Although those talks were approved by Trump, they sparked anger among some Senate Republicans, some of whom took the issue up privately with the White House.
• In mid-March, Boehler withdrew his nomination as special presidential envoy for hostage affairs, a position that requires Senate confirmation.
• The new appointment is temporary and does not require Senate approval.

Driving the news: On Wednesday, Boehler told Al-Jazeera "it is possible" he will engage directly with Hamas again in an effort to free the remaining hostages in Gaza, including American Edan Alexander.

Zoom in: Boehler will work with all relevant government agencies "to ensure that all U.S. nationals held abroad under concerning circumstances are given focused attention by the U.S Government and appropriately resolved," the notification says.

• The role gives him a broader mandate to work on the cases of all U.S. nationals "whose detention gives rise to concerns about their health or presents extenuating or humanitarian circumstances that merit their release, unjustly detained foreign nationals whose release the United States is uniquely placed to support, and other cases of detained U.S. nationals where the detention creates a national security concern for the United States."
• He will serve in the expanded role as a special government employee until September 2025, unless extended.

President Trump's vision for elite higher education includes eliminating perceived liberal slants, sharpening discipline measures and reconstructing the makeup of student and faculty bodies.

Why it matters: The administration's recent demands of Harvard and other elite institutions show the government's playbook to influence and reorient the priorities of universities through federal funds.

• While the demands revolve around institutional policies, the freezes and cuts largely threaten scientific research.
• The Trump administration is seeking government input into hiring and admissions practices in an apparent effort to weed out not just antisemitism — the stated objective — but also to push back on progressive ideology.

Behind the scenes: A task force of about 20 people, most of whom are not publicly known, has met regularly in D.C. since February to discuss reports of discrimination, review grants and write recommendations, the New York Times reported.

• The Trump administration said it would freeze Harvard's $2.2 billion in grants and $60 million in contracts after the university said it wouldn't comply with demands.

The Trump administration's demands of Harvard in a Friday letter included:

• Governance and leadership reform, including reducing the power held by faculty "more committed to activism than scholarship."
• Merit-based hiring and admissions reform to remove any sex or race preferences. The government also ordered the university to shutter all diversity, equity and inclusion offices and initiatives.
• International admissions reform to "prevent admitting students hostile to the American values and institutions in the U.S. Constitution and Declaration of Independence."
• Viewpoint diversity in admissions and hiring with an external audit of the student body, faculty, staff and leadership.
• Reforming programs accused of biases including antisemitism, which could affect human rights, language and public health departments.

What they're saying: "Harvard has in recent years failed to live up to both the intellectual and civil rights conditions that justify federal investment," Trump administration officials said in the letter. "But we appreciate your expression of commitment to repairing those failures and welcome your collaboration in restoring the university to its promise."

• In a Wednesday post on Truth Social, Trump called Harvard faculty "woke, radical left idiots."

The other side: Harvard President Alan Garber said the demands surpass the federal government's power and encroach on the university's First Amendment rights.

• "No government—regardless of which party is in power—should dictate what private universities can teach, whom they can admit and hire, and which areas of study and inquiry they can pursue," he wrote on Monday.

Zoom out: The administration laid out nine demands of Columbia as preconditions to formal negotiations on federal funding — several of which were distinct from the demands on Harvard.

• That list included banning masks, transferring the disciplinary power over students to the university president, and allowing campus law enforcement to arrest "agitators."

Flashback: Last year, politicians exerted pressure on universities over pro-Palestinian protests and diversity efforts, pushing administrators to align more with conservative lawmakers.

Go deeper: Trump's pressure campaign against universities hits a Harvard-sized snag

The nation's home builders are less than thrilled with the Trump economy thus far.

Why it matters: The headwinds for the companies that build single-family homes are multiplying, a bad sign for a country facing a shortage of affordable homes.

By the numbers: The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index ticked up a scant one point to 40 in April from the previous month, but that was before the recent mortgage-rate increase registered. (Any number below 50 indicates negative sentiment.)

• 60% of builders said their materials costs have gone up by an average of 6.3% this year, adding $10,900 per average single-family home.
• Meanwhile: U.S. homes are selling at their slowest pace in 6 years, per real estate site Redfin's data. The typical home that went under contract in March sat on the market for about 1.5 months (47 days). Double what it was during the frenzied pandemic market.
• A bright spot for buyers: Home prices are growing at the slowest pace in a year and a half, up 2.5% in March from last year. But that's hardly good news for home builders.

The big picture: It's not only that tariffs raise the cost of building a house.

• The drastic "Liberation Day" rollout sparked a Treasury bond selloff that's pushed mortgage rates higher, just as they were starting to cool. The average 30-year-mortgage rate is hovering right below 7% now, according to Mortgage News Daily, after spiking last week. (It's still below January levels, though.)
• Rising rates and economic uncertainty dampen demand for houses. Meanwhile, the threat of an immigration crackdown hangs over an industry that relies heavily on undocumented labor.

What they said: "You have to be crazy to start a new home project right now!'" a home builder told HFE Economics, per a note the ADJ GROUP sent out Wednesday.

• "The prices of materials over the next three months seem sure to rise, but no one knows by how much," HFE writes. "Tariff risks pose a huge threat to profit margins in this industry and to the prices of everything overall."
• They point out that if, say, the price of Canadian lumber goes up that would likely lead to U.S. producers to raise prices, too.

The bottom line: There was lots of campaign talk about easing the housing shortage with less regulation, but federal policies around trade are making it harder to build homes.

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is seriously considering a run for governor of New York after withdrawing her nomination for ambassador to the United Nations, two sources familiar with her thinking confirmed to Axios.

Why it matters: It could set up a clash between the former House Republican Conference chair and Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), who has long been teasing a gubernatorial run.

• Stefanik joins a growing wave of House members looking at runs for higher office — which complicates attendance math for congressional leaders in both parties.

What we're hearing: Stefanik is seriously considering a run after being encouraged by Republicans in her home state and individuals in Trump's orbit, one of the sources told Axios.

• Stefanik gave up her role as conference chair after being nominated for UN ambassador, only to withdraw in part due to GOP concerns about her seat staying vacant — and potentially falling into Democratic hands.
• Her withdrawal created a difficult dynamic for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who attempted to make things right by offering Stefanik her committee assignments back and a consolation role in GOP leadership.
• Johnson has reportedly been struggling with how to put Stefanik back on the Intelligence Committee.

State of play: Lawler has been considered the frontrunner for the GOP nomination to challenge Gov. Kathy Hochul — who may face her own primary challenge from Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.).

• Stefanik, however, is a high-profile star in Trump's orbit and could easily be a formidable candidate for the nomination if she runs.

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that President Trump's tariffs would likely lead to a faster rise in prices and weigh on economic growth.

Why it matters: Trump campaigned on lowering prices for inflation-weary consumers, but Powell is the latest to suggest Trump's trade war might do the opposite.

• In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said the Fed could face a tough scenario if inflation rises alongside teetering economic growth.

What they're saying: "Tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation," Powell said, warning of the possibility that inflationary effects could also linger.

• Powell said how long tariff-related inflation persists depends on a slew of factors, including the time it takes for tariffs to "pass through fully to prices."

The big picture: Trump's tariff regime — which has shifted week-to-week — has so far been "significantly larger than anticipated," Powell said.

• "The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth," he added.

Between the lines: Tariffs might result in stagflation-like economic conditions, leaving the Fed in an uncomfortable bind.

• If the economy stagnates alongside rising inflation, it would force the Fed to choose whether to support the economy (likely with lower rates) or tame inflation (likely with higher rates).

"We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension," said Powell, who was first nominated to the Fed post by Trump in 2017.

• "If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close," Powell added.
• Congress assigned the Fed two mandates: maximum employment and price stability.

What to watch: The Fed has embraced a "wait-and-see" approach, preferring to wait for clarity on White House policy before adjusting interest rates.

• Market-based odds show a slightly higher chance of three Fed rate cuts this year, according to the CME's Fed Watch tool.

Go deeper: The trade war's pandemic parallel

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. took the unusual step of publicly contradicting one of his own agencies' autism studies on Tuesday, suggesting at a press conference that "environmental factors" including drugs, not improved screening, were causing a spike in confirmed cases.

Why it matters: Kennedy's assertion that researchers and the media are engaging in what he called "epidemic denial" around the condition could further stoke vaccine skepticism and broader public trust in science, experts say.

• Patient advocates also contend categorizing the condition as a disease could steer attention and funding away from efforts to accommodate people with autism.

"One of the things I think we need to move away from today is this ideology that this diagnosis, rather the relentless increases, are simply artifacts of better diagnoses, better recognition," Kennedy said.

• He said he would announce a series of studies in the next two to three weeks to identify "precisely what the environmental toxins are."
• He suggested these could include mold, food additives, pesticides, air, water or medicines.

Catch up quick: Kennedy abruptly called his first Washington press conference after the Centers for Disease Control on Tuesday released a study which found one in 31 U.S. children are diagnosed with autism by their eighth birthday.

• The figure was 1 in 54 in 2016, per the agency.
• The study cited an uptick "might be due to differences in availability of services for early detection and evaluation and diagnostic practices."
• Differences in insurance coverage were also cited as a possible contributor.

Wednesday's packed event at HHS headquarters was tightly controlled, with only a handful of news outlets being offered the chance to ask questions.

• Kennedy suggested that industries are profiting off of environmental toxins that are driving more autism diagnoses.
• "Doctors and therapists in the past weren't stupid, they weren't missing all these cases. The epidemic is real," Kennedy said.
• "It's time for everyone to stop attributing this rise to epidemic denial," Kennedy said. "External factors, environmental exposures, that's where we're going to find the answer."

Zoom in: Kennedy has tapped David Geier, who has a history of promoting the discredited vaccine-autism link to lead what he termed a global effort to identify the cause of autism. He said it would be concluded by September.

• Over the weekend, the FDA's former top vaccine official Peter Marks warned the preconceptions and unrealistic timeline of this research would likely lead to flawed conclusions.

What has been a yearslong economic risk is now reality: The tit-for-tat tariffs effectively end U.S.-China bilateral trade, the final step in the economic decoupling of the world's juggernauts.

• That is the new warning from the World Trade Organization on Wednesday in the release of its latest global outlook.

Why it matters: The sudden divorce of the two economies might mean profound pain for American workers and the nation's wealth built on the back of a strong trading relationship.

• A prolonged trade fight risks splitting the global trading system into two distinct blocs — countries that trade with the U.S. and those that trade with China.

Stunning stat: The WTO anticipates trade between the U.S. and China will screech to a halt this year.

• Trade of merchandise between the two countries will drop by 80%, a drop that would have topped 90% without the White House's recent exemption for smartphones and other tech goods, according to WTO director general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

What they're saying: "The drop in U.S.-China trade of the magnitudes we are talking about is virtually tantamount to a decoupling of the two economies," Okonjo-Iweala told reporters Wednesday morning.

• "This is a phenomenon we've talked about before ... and now we're seeing it emerging," Okonjo-Iweala added. " I think this is one of the most worrying factors for us."

The big picture: The total volume of goods traded around the world is expected to contract by 0.2% this year — an abrupt turnaround from the near 3% increase last year.

• The decline in world trade would be as large as 1.5% in 2025 if President Trump reinstates the reciprocal tariffs that are now on pause.
• Consider the counterfactual: If both trade and trade-policy uncertainty were low, the WTO says, world trade would grow by 2.7% in 2025.

Threat level: The group anticipates the trade slowdown — topped with uncertainty about the tariff endgame — will spill over into weaker global growth.

• The WTO expects GDP growth will reach 2.2% in 2025, 0.6 percentage point below its initial forecast that did not account for the global trade war.
• That will nudge up slightly to 2.4% next year, "substandard compared to recent history," it writes in the release.

Between the lines: The Trump administration said it would hold trade negotiations with a slew of nations facing reciprocal tariffs over the next 90 days.

• But China is the exception. The high, country-specific rates have been paused for all countries, though tariffs on China have only increased.

What's new: Trump ordered the Commerce Department to investigate America's reliance on critical minerals from other countries.

• The investigation could further crack down on trade with China, which produces the majority of all critical minerals, many of which are used in defense, energy and electronics sectors.
• Any tariffs that stem from the investigation would "take the place" of current reciprocal tariff rates, according to the executive order Trump signed Tuesday.

What to watch: The WTO says countries should cut back excessive reliance on other trading partners, an admission that Trump-like protectionism is the new threat.

• "The U.S. has a point when it says too many countries are dependent on its market, or the production of some critical inputs are too concentrated in certain sectors and geographies," Okonjo-Iweala says.
• "Building global resilience requires interdependence, not over dependence."

The bottom line: The fear of economic devastation from U.S.-China decoupling helped blunt Biden-era trade policy.

• Trump is taking an unprecedented gamble — one that WTO economists admit means its forecast might not be gloomy enough.

A dozen swing-district and centrist House Republicans are warning Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) that they won't vote for a budget reconciliation package that cuts Medicaid too deeply.

Why it matters: It puts Johnson in a vise as members of the right-wing House Freedom Caucus demand steep cuts to the health program for low-income individuals.

• The GOP's clash over how much to offset their planned $4 trillion in tax cuts was on full display last week as the Freedom Caucus rebelled over a Senate budget measure that mandated only $4 billion in cuts.
• The House had initially passed a budget resolution that would require $1.5 trillion in cuts — and would likely reduce Medicaid funding.

What they're saying: The 12 lawmakers wrote in a letter to Johnson and other GOP leaders that many of them represent "districts with high rates of constituents who depend on Medicaid."

• "Balancing the federal budget must not come at the expense of ... their health and economic security," they said in the letter, a copy of which was obtained by Axios.
• The lawmakers issued an ultimatum: "We cannot and will not support a final reconciliation bill that includes any reduction in Medicaid coverage for vulnerable populations."

Zoom in: The letter was signed by Reps. David Valadao (R-Calif.), Don Bacon (R-Neb.), Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.), Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.), Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), Jen Kiggans (R-Va.), Young Kim (R-Calif.), Robert Wittman (R-Va.), Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.), Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.), Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.) and Jeff Hurd (R-Colo.).

• Spokespeople for Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
• The letter was first reported by Punchbowl News.

A spokesperson for the House Energy and Commerce Committee said chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) and Republicans on the panel "intend to strengthen, secure, and sustain Medicaid for generations to come."

• Guthrie has been "working with members across the House Republican Conference to end the waste, fraud, and abuse in the Medicaid system and ensure it remains stable for the vulnerable populations it was intended to support," they said.

Between the lines: While they are pushing against what they see as overly zealous benefit cuts, these moderate members aren't ruling out some Medicaid reforms as a way of paying for tax cuts.

• LaLota told Axios he is "committed to responsible, compassionate Medicaid reforms that strengthen the program for Americans who truly need it."
• "These reforms will prioritize work requirements for able-bodied adults, ensure benefits go only to legal residents, and increase eligibility checks from once every 12 months to every 6 months to help prevent fraud and abuse," he said.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional reporting.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday that his state plans to sue in an attempt to block President Trump's sweeping tariff regime.

Why it matters: California, the fifth-largest economy in the world, could lose billions in Trump's trade war with China. The lawsuit marks the first time a state has sued Trump over his massive, market-rattling levies that sent ripples through the global economy.

Driving the news: The lawsuit will be filed Wednesday in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California. It argues that Trump's use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act to impose his levies without congressional approval was unlawful.

• The law gives the president wide-ranging power in an emergency — though it has never been used to implement tariffs since its creation in 1977. The Trump admin has said the flow of drugs, undocumented immigration and trade deficits constituted national emergencies.
• Newsom said in a statement that Trump's "unlawful tariffs" are already "wreaking chaos on California families, businesses, and our economy — driving up prices and threatening jobs."
• The tariffs have cost the state billions, inflated costs and disrupted supply chains, Newsom said.

What they're saying: "Californians are bracing for fallout from the impact of the President's choices — from farmers in the Central Valley, to small businesses in Sacramento, and worried families at the kitchen table — this game the President is playing has very real consequences for Californians across our state," said Rob Bonta, the state's attorney general, in a statement.

• State officials say that tariffs have an "outsized impact" on California businesses.

Zoom out: At least three other lawsuits filed over Trump's tariffs have argued Trump's justification under the emergency powers law is executive overreach, Axios' Courtenay Brown reports.

State of play: Newsom announced earlier this month that he was seeking agreements with other countries to try to insulate his state from the effects of Trump's trade war.

• California is the largest importer among the states, Newsom noted in a press release, emphasizing the importance of trade with Mexico, Canada and China.

The big picture: While Trump paused most of his sweeping "reciprocal" tariffs — other than on China — some levies remain in place.

• His administration's tariffs on Chinese goods are still set at 145%.
• The White House has signaled more tariffs, possibly on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, are on the way.

Go deeper: California is caught in the crosshairs of an escalating trade war with China

Editor's note: This story was updated with additional context.

Worries are growing over funding for Head Start, the decades-old federal program that provides childcare, nutrition assistance and other services to the nation's poorest families.

Why it matters: Shuttering the program — something the White House is reportedly considering — would be "catastrophic," says Casey Peeks, senior director of Early Childhood Policy at the liberal Center for American Progress.

• More than 790,000 children, through age 5, rely on Head Start for learning, meals and healthcare services, per a report from CAP out Wednesday morning.

The big picture: There would be ripple affects for other families if child care providers lose access to this funding — straining a nationwide system already struggling with wait lists and high costs.

• Such disruption would hit "not only our staff, but our parents that are working," says Jennifer Carrol, the Assistant Director of Children's Services at Community Action Partnership of North Alabama, one of the largest Head Start programs in Alabama, serving over 1,600 children across 15 counties.

By the numbers: The impact would be particularly hard on rural America, per CAPs report.

• 46% of Head Start funding goes to rural areas, often in places without any other child care options, according to federal data from the 2023-2024 school year they analyzed. Only 22% is for those in urban areas.

Zoom in: CAP looked at Head Start funding by Congressional district and found it is pretty evenly split between parties, with 47% going to Republican districts, particularly in those rural areas.

Where it stands: Earlier this month, several regional Head Start offices were shuttered as part of broader cuts at the Department of Health and Human Services, which operates the program.

• Earlier this year, after a White House funding freeze, many Head Start programs struggled to stay afloat.
• "There's just this cloud of uncertainty right now," says Tommy Sheridan, deputy director at National Head Start Association, a nonprofit that represents children, families and programs.
• He said providers and parents are both worried about the program, started as part of Lyndon B. Johnson's war on poverty.

For the record: The White House didn't respond to questions about possible further cuts to Head Start.

Between the lines: Eliminating Head Start is one of Project 2025's goals; the conservative group says the program has little value; claiming fraud and abuse are big issues.

• But many research papers over the years have found that for kids, Head Start improves educational outcomes, reduces teen pregnancy and "criminal engagement," and even increases wages into adulthood.

Reality check: Long-time Head Start employees say they've often worried over cuts in the past, but typically funding has garnered bipartisan support — the program has received increases in 12 out of the past 15 years, including during the first Trump term.

• "We don't see them zeroing out Head Start," says Carroll in Alabama. "This has come up previously, through the 25 years."

New York Attorney General Letitia James is accusing the Trump administration of weaponizing the government after a federal agency referred her for potential criminal prosecution for alleged mortgage fraud.

Why it matters: It's the latest example of the administration following through on President Trump's pledges to seek retribution against his political enemies.

• Trump has already stripped security clearances from James, who is not facing any charges in relation to the criminal referral, and Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who secured a historic conviction in the president's hush money case.

State of play: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) director William Pulte wrote a criminal referral relating to James to Attorney General Pam Bondi and Deputy AG Todd Blanche.

• He alleges that James "falsified bank documents and property records to acquire government backed assistance and loans and more favorable loan terms," per the letter seen by Axios and first reported by the New York Post on Tuesday evening, which cites media reports.
• Trump shared one of those reports in a Monday Truth Social post with the comment: "Letitia James, a totally corrupt politician, should resign from her position as New York State Attorney General, IMMEDIATELY. Everyone is trying to MAKE NEW YORK GREAT AGAIN, and it can never be done with this wacky crook in office."

Flashback: James successfully brought a $464 million civil fraud case against Trump, his companies and fellow defendants over the president's business practices.

• Trump is appealing the decision.

What they're saying: "Attorney General James is focused every single day on protecting New Yorkers, especially as this Administration weaponizes the federal government against the rule of law and the Constitution," said a spokesperson for the Office of the Attorney General in an emailed statement on Tuesday night.

• "She will not be intimidated by bullies — no matter who they are."
• A representative for the White House referred Axios to the FHFA and the Justice Department for comment.

The DOJ referred Axios to comments U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi made in an interview with Fox News Wednesday morning. She said she had just learned of Pulte's referral.

• "No one in my office has read it yet," she said. "We haven't looked at it. Of course, we'll be reviewing it."

Go deeper: Trump's overflowing grudge list

Editor's note: This story was updated with a response from the DOJ and comments from Bondi.