March Madness is officially here and, with it, the time to get irrationally frustrated at your bracket.

Why it matters: It probably doesn't! Nobody has ever filled out a perfect bracket, and, because there are fewer upsets in the women's NCAA tournament than the men's, the margins for error on your bracket are lower.

• But if you're serious about winning your office pool this year, there are a few general tips to follow.

Pick the favorites

In 2024, only one double-digit women's seed advanced past the first round. Historically, No. 1 seeds have not only won 32 of 42 national championships, but in 35 tournaments, two or more No. 1 seeds made the semifinals, per the NCAA.

• So: Wait to pick your upsets until the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight. Lean on the powerhouses early.
• This year, the four No. 1 seeds are UCLA (Regional 1 - Spokane), South Carolina (Regional 2 - Birmingham), Texas (Regional 3 - Birmingham) and USC (Regional 4 - Spokane).

The intrigue: These teams are full of future WNBA players, including Te-Hina Paopao (guard, South Carolina), Kiki Iriafen (forward, USC), Lauren Betts (center, UCLA) and potential future No. 1 overall pick JuJu Watkins (USC, sophomore).

Star power

For everything we just wrote about No. 1 seeds, two non-top seeds this year have enough talent to potentially go on deep runs.

• No. 2 seed UConn is one of the most storied programs in the sport, but this might be the last shot for stars Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd to win championships as Huskies.
• Notre Dame is a No. 3 seed, but Olivia Miles and Hannah Hidalgo are two of the best players in the country.

Avoid seeds 13-16

If you are compelled to pick a first-round upset, look to a No. 11 or 12 seed. Teams seeded Nos. 14-16 are a combined 1-360 in tournament history, according to the NCAA, but 12 seeds average about one win a year.

Study the 3 seeds

While a top seed should probably be your winner pick, last year, all four Elite Eight games featured No. 1 vs. No. 3 seeds.

• March is unpredictable enough that the trend will either continue this year, or the 3 seeds — LSU, North Carolina, Notre Dame and Oklahoma — will all lose in the second round.

Ignore the First Four

The First Four games, which give the four lowest-ranked teams in the field a chance to make the 64-team bracket, are Wednesday and Thursday.

• You don't need to pick the First Four games, as most brackets will automatically include the winner, and you should probably avoid picking one of those teams to advance in the round of 64 — First Four squads are 1-11 in first-round games all time, per Sports Illustrated.

The bottom line: The first round begins Friday. Upsets are common and most days, anything can happen.

• So pick your bracket based on colors, or which mascot would win in a fight, or where your exes live. Follow your heart and fly close to the sun. It's March, and you earned it.

Go deeper:

• Official bracket
• Men's March Madness bracket cheat sheet
• How to watch March Madness 2025

The first image of Pope Francis since he was hospitalized over a month ago was released by the Vatican on Sunday.

The big picture: The photo shows him sitting alone in a wheelchair in a chapel at Rome's Agostino Gemelli Hospital after he celebrated Mass with other priests, according to the Vatican.

• The pontiff was admitted to the hospital on Feb. 14 with bronchitis symptoms and tests revealed "a complex clinical picture" that saw him diagnosed with a polymicrobial infection and later pneumonia in both lungs.
• His medical condition has "shown slight improvements" and the Vatican said last week he no longer faced immediate threat of dying from pneumonia.

What they're saying: The Pope's condition "remains stable," but "still within a clinical context" that the medical staff defines as "complex," the Vatican said Sunday.

You shouldn't stress about filling out your office bracket this week, as one of the best things about March Madness is that previous knowledge of the sport is not necessarily correlated with success.

Why it matters: It probably doesn't! Nobody has ever filled out a perfect bracket and, as far as the NCAA can tell, only one person has ever even picked perfectly through the Sweet 16.

• Powerhouses with future NBA players are routinely upset by tiny schools that get hot, especially in the early rounds.

But if you are serious about beating Brad in sales this year, there are a few tips to follow.

Don't get cute

While some years are wackier than others, top seeds are historically a good bet to win it all. According to Bracket Research, 34 of 39 winners of the NCAA tournament going back to 1985 were 1, 2, or 3-seeds — and 25 were No. 1 seeds.

• This year, the four No. 1 seeds are Auburn (South region), Duke (East), Houston (Midwest) and Florida (West).

Commit to a Cinderella

You should still pick upsets in the early rounds. The common advice will be take No. 12 seeds over No. 5 seeds, as they've won 35% of the time in the first round.

• One 12 seed that already looks to be a popular pick: Colorado State over Memphis in Seattle.

Of note: No. 15 seeds have upset No. 2 seeds 11 times since 1985.

Watch the injuries

Duke, which entered the ACC tournament No. 1 in the AP Top 25 poll, lost star forwards Cooper Flagg and Maliq Brown to injuries during the tournament.

• The NCAA seemed to have confidence in at least Flagg's return, as the Blue Devils still earned a No. 1 seed, but do you?

Follow the threes

An impressive 290 teams have fired off 20 or more 3-point attempts per game this season, which is 34 more teams than last season and the highest of all time, per the NCAA.

The intrigue: That could mean more upsets, as lower-seeded teams could score in bunches out of nowhere.

• If you want to swim against the current: Michigan State, a No. 2 seed in the South, has now made the NCAA tournament 27 straight times and attempts just over 19 3-pointers per game.

First Four to the second round

The First Four games, which give the four lowest-ranked teams in the field a chance to make the 64-team bracket, are Tuesday and Wednesday.

• You don't need to pick the First Four games, as most brackets will automatically include the winner, but you should pick at least one to win in the first round of 64 — it's happened every year since the First Four's inception in 2011 except for 2019.

For your Final Four

Conference tournament results can be helpful for the first rounds, but not once we get to the Final Four.

• Of the last 11 winners, eight did not win their conference tournaments.

The bottom line: The first round begins Thursday. Upsets are common and most days, anything can happen.

• So pick your bracket based on colors, or which mascot would win in a fight, or where your exes live. Follow your heart and fly close to the sun. It's March, and you earned it.

Go deeper:

• Official bracket
• How to watch March Madness 2025

A federal judge on Sunday ordered the Trump administration to respond to allegations that U.S. immigration enforcement "willfully disobeyed" an order halting the deportation of a Rhode Island doctor.

The big picture: Dr. Rasha Alawieh, who according to court documents is a citizen of Lebanon who holds an H-1B visa, was detained last week upon her arrival at a Boston airport.

How it happened: In an order on Friday evening in response to a petition from Alawieh's cousin, federal Judge Leo T. Sorokin mandated 48 hours' notice before Alawieh could be deported.

• But Alawieh was nonetheless placed on a flight to Paris, where she was detained as of Saturday.
• It's unclear how much time elapsed between the order coming down and that flight departing, but attorneys representing Alawieh's cousin, Yara Chehab, alleged in a court filing that the government had received "actual notice" and "willfully disobeyed" the court's order. Alawieh was expected to fly to Lebanon on Sunday, per the filing.
• The Trump administration has not said why Alawieh was detained, or why she was removed from the country despite the order. The Department of Homeland Security did not respond to a request for comment, while the State Department said it could not comment on individual cases.

Driving the news: In a Sunday court filing, Sorokin ordered the government to respond by Monday morning to the "serious allegations" that it intentionally breached a court order.

• In his previous order, Sorokin had said that in order to give more time to consider the case, Alawieh must not be moved outside of Massachusetts without 48 hours' advanced notice and an accompanying explanation.
• In his Sunday filing, Sorokin said his order followed "common practice in this district as it has been for years."

Catch up quick: Brown University sponsored Alawieh's visa after offering her an assistant professorship, according to a complaint filed Friday.

• Her petition was approved in June, but she wasn't able to obtain her visa until March 11, per the filing.
• While she was completing programs at the University of Washington, Ohio State University and Yale in years prior, she was on a J-1 visa, according to the complaint.

What they're saying: The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) called on the Trump administration in a Sunday statement to "immediately readmit" Alawieh.

• "As a U.S. resident for six years and a doctor working for the Division of Kidney Disease & Hypertension at Brown Medicine, Dr. Alawieh played a critical role in treating countless patients who needed treatment by a specialist," CAIR's statement read.

Zoom out: This would not be the first time the Trump administration moved to deport someone who was in the U.S. legally.

• It comes just one week after federal authorities arrested Mahmoud Khalil, a Columbia University graduate and protest leader, despite him being a legal permanent resident in the U.S.

What's next: A hearing in Alawieh's case is set for Monday.

Go deeper: Trump's immigration factor

The Trump administration says it ignored a Saturday court order to turn around two planeloads of alleged Venezuelan gang members because the flights were over international waters and therefore the ruling didn't apply, two senior officials tell Axios.

Why it matters: The administration's decision to defy a federal judge's order is exceedingly rare and highly controversial.

• "Court order defied. First of many as I've been warning and start of true constitutional crisis," national security attorney Mark S. Zaid, a Trump critic, wrote on X, adding that Trump could ultimately get impeached.
• The White House welcomes that fight. "This is headed to the Supreme Court. And we're going to win," a senior White House official told Axios.
• A second administration official said Trump was not defying the judge whose ruling came too late for the planes to change course: "Very important that people understand we are not actively defying court orders."

State of play: Trump's advisers contend U.S. District Judge James Boasberg overstepped his authority by issuing an order that blocked the president from deporting about 250 alleged Tren de Aragua gang members under the Alien Enemies Act of 1789.

• The war-time law gives the executive extreme immense power to deport noncitizens without a judicial hearing. But it has been little-used, particularly in peacetime.
• "It's the showdown that was always going to happen between the two branches of government," a senior White House official said. "And it seemed that this was pretty clean. You have Venezuelan gang members ... These are bad guys, as the president would say."

How it happened: White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller "orchestrated" the process in the West Wing in tandem with Homeland Security Secretary Kristy Noem. Few outside their teams knew what was happening.

• They didn't actually set out to defy a court order. "We wanted them on the ground first, before a judge could get the case, but this is how it worked out," said the official.

The timeline: The president signed the executive order invoking the Alien Enemies Act on Friday night, but intentionally did not advertise it. On Saturday morning, word of the order leaked, officials said, prompting a mad scramble to get planes in the air.

• At 2:31 p.m. Saturday, an immigration activist who tracks deportation flights, posted on X that "TWO HIGHLY UNUSUAL ICE flights" were departing from Texas to El Salvador, which had agreed to accept Venezuelan gang members deported from the U.S.
• Hours later, during a court hearing filed by the ACLU., Boasberg ordered a halt to the deportations and said any flights should be turned around mid-air.
• "This is something that you need to make sure is complied with immediately," he told the Justice Department, according to the Washington Post.
• At that point, about 6:51 p.m., both flights were off the Yucatan Peninsula, according to flight paths posted on X.

Inside the White House, officials discussed whether to order the planes to turn around. On advice from a team of administration lawyers, the administration pressed ahead.

• "There was a discussion about how far the judge's ruling can go under the circumstances and over international waters and, on advice of counsel, we proceeded with deporting these thugs," the senior official said.
• "They were already outside of US airspace. We believe the order is not applicable," a second senior administration official told Axios.

Yes, but: The Trump administration was already spoiling for a fight over the Alien Enemies Act — one of several fronts on which they believe legal challenges to the president's authority will only end up strengthening it when the Supreme Court rules in his favor.

Between the lines: Officially, the Trump White House is not denying it ignored the judge's order, and instead wants to shift the argument to whether it was right to expel alleged members of Tren de Aragua.

• "If the Democrats want to argue in favor of turning a plane full of rapists, murderers, and gangsters back to the United States, that's a fight we are more than happy to take," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told Axios when asked about the case.
• It's unclear how many of the roughly 250 Venezuelans were deported under the Alien Enemies Act and how many were kicked out of the U.S. due to other immigration laws.
• It's also not clear whether all of them were actually gang members.

What they are saying: On Sunday morning, El Salvador President Nayib Bukele posted a video on X hailing the arrival of the Venezuelans in his country. Bukele also mockingly featured an image of a New York Post story about the judge's order halting the flights.

• "Oopsie ... too late," Bukele wrote on X with a crying-laughing emoji
• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio retweeted the post.

Update: After publication, Leavitt issued a statement: "The Administration did not 'refuse to comply' with a court order. The order, which had no lawful basis, was issued after terrorist TdA aliens had already been removed from U.S. territory."

• "The written order and the Administration's actions do not conflict. Moreover, as the Supreme Court has repeatedly made clear — federal courts generally have no jurisdiction over the President's conduct of foreign affairs, his authorities under the Alien Enemies Act, and his core Article II powers to remove foreign alien terrorists from U.S. soil and repel a declared invasion," she wrote.
• "A single judge in a single city cannot direct the movements of an aircraft carrier full of foreign alien terrorists who were physically expelled from U.S. soil."

Editor's note: This story was updated with the White House official's claim that the administration had ignored the ruling but not defied it, because it came too late, and with Leavitt's updated statement.

More registered voters say the U.S. is heading in the right direction (44%) than at any point since early 2004, though a majority (54%) still say the country is on the wrong track, according to an NBC News poll out this morning.

Why it matters: President Trump has enjoyed some of his highest approval ratings in the early days of his second term — though the specifics of his aggressive policies have begun to irk Americans in recent polling.

• But as the president rolls out a cascade of controversial actions, Democrats are the ones hitting new polling lows — underscoring frustration within the party that lawmakers are being flattened by a GOP steamroller.

Driving the news: Trump's job approval rating in the new poll (47%) matches his all-time highs in NBC News polling throughout his political career (37% "strongly approve," 10% "somewhat approve").

• 1,000 registered voters were polled March 7-11, with a margin of error of ±3.1%.

The other side: The Democratic Party reached an all-time low in popularity in NBC polling dating back to 1990.

• A net 27% of those polled said they have positive views of the party (20% positive and 7% very positive).
• CNN's latest polling also found that the Democratic party's favorability rating among Americans is now at just 29%, a new low in in the outlet's polling dating back to 1992.

Go deeper: Focus group: Trump swing voters in Michigan have buyers' remorse

Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) stopped short Sunday of calling for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) to be replaced — but she said it's time for Senate Democrats to decide if he's the man for the moment.

Why it matters: Schumer's decision to help Republicans pass a GOP-led funding bill to keep the government's lights on despite intense pressure to block the legislation highlighted growing fractures within his party that may put his job in jeopardy.

• When asked by reporters Friday if it was time for new leadership, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) provided no defense for his Senate counterpart, simply saying, "Next question."
• The rage brewing within Jeffries' caucus erupted Thursday after Schumer said he'd back the stopgap measure, prompting discussion of primary challenges and Senate floor protests, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.

Driving the news: Crockett said on CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday that Schumer was "absolutely wrong" in his contention that a shutdown would have created a "far worse consequence."

• "The idea that Chuck Schumer is the only one that's got a brain in the room and the only one that can think though all the pros and cons is absolutely ridiculous," she said.
• Asked if Senate Democrats should replace their leader, Crockett said the caucus should "sit down and take a look and decide whether or not Chuck Schumer is the one to lead in this moment."

Friction point: Some Dems are so enraged they've encouraged a fellow New Yorker to primary Schumer: Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who said Schumer's move triggered a "deep sense of outrage and betrayal" across the party.

• Asked if she'd back Ocasio-Cortez in a campaign to oust Schumer, Crockett said it's too early to give an answer, but added "younger, fresher leadership" might be on voters' minds — "especially in the state of New York."

By the numbers: While Dems trade barbs, new polling shows the party has hit record-low popularity.

• Just 27% of registered voters said they have positive views of the party, according to NBC News polling out Sunday. That's the party's lowest positive rating in the outlet's polling dating back to 1990.
• CNN's latest poll, also out Sunday, has the Democratic party's favorability at 29% among the American public — also a historic low dating back to 1992.
• CNN notes that number is in part driven by Democrats' dissatisfaction with their own party.

What they're saying: Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) said on CBS News' "Face the Nation" Sunday that she's feeling that anger from constituents in her town halls.

• "People are scared, they want to see us do something," she said. "They want to see Democrats fighting back."
• She contended Schumer sent out "mixed signals" ahead of the funding vote.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press" that Schumer "certainly can lead this caucus" and that he still supports him as leader.

• But he noted, "I think the only way that we are going to be effective as a caucus is if we change our tactics," later saying, "if we continue to engage in business as usual, this democracy could be gone."
• A shutdown, he said, would've "sent a message that the Democratic Party is not going to be bullied by Donald Trump."

Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.) on "Fox News Sunday" framed the "generational tension" and debate within the party as "healthy," saying Republicans aligning in "lockstep" behind Trump are the "unhealthy" ones.

• After the losses of 2024, he said, "we're going to be debating internally as a party. I think that's exactly what American voters expect of us."

Yes, but: Some Democrats think the public debate is handing Trump ammo while he faces his own myriad challenges to his aggressive blitz of early executive actions.

• "I think Chuck Schumer's a great leader," Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) said on CNN Sunday. Asked if he's the man for the job at this moment, she answered, "I don't think we should be talking about that and giving Trump any more wins."

Go deeper: Inside House Dems' furious anti-Schumer movement

National security adviser Mike Waltz said Sunday that the U.S. could hit Iranian targets in Yemen as part of its military campaign against the Houthis.

Why it matters: President Trump ordered strikes across Yemen on Saturday which killed at least 31 people, according to Houthi affiliated media, and which Waltz claimed "hit multiple Houthi leaders and took them out." Waltz made clear the U.S. is willing to target not just the Iran-backed Houthis, but targets more directly linked to Iran.

• He said that targets that "will be on the table" include Iranian ships near the Yemeni coast that help the Houthis in gathering intelligence, Iranian military trainers, and "other things they have put in to help the Houthis attack the global economy."

The big picture: Trump sent a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei last week proposing negotiations on a new nuclear deal.

• U.S. officials have said Trump wants any such deal to include limitations on Iran's support for regional terror groups and militias, like the Houthis.
• Khamenei called Trump's outreach "deception" and stressed Iran is not going to agree to any limitations on its relations with other groups in the region. Iran also condemned the U.S. strikes in Yemen.

Trump has also said that if Iran won't agree to a deal, the U.S. will pursue "other options" if needed to ensure Tehran doesn't get a bomb.

• Waltz said on ABC's "This Week" that all options are on the table to ensure Iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon.
• He stressed Iran needs to "hand over and give up" all elements of its nuclear program including missiles, weaponization and enrichment of uranium "or they can face a whole series of other consequences," adding that "Iran has been offered a way put of this."
• Trump abandoned the 2015 nuclear deal that imposed limitations and inspections on Iran's nuclear program during his first term.

What to watch: Waltz said the strikes in Yemen on Saturday were also a message to Iran.

• "We will hold not only Houthis accountable but also their Iranian backers," he said.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday said the correction in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq was "healthy," and suggested that prior strong performance in stocks had been signs of a "euphoric" market.

Why it matters: Treasury secretaries don't typically welcome major stock indices falling 10% in less than a month.

• But Bessent again said the economy needed to go through a "transition" as deficits come down and government spending declines.

What they're saying: "I've been in the investment business for 35 years, and I can tell you that corrections are healthy. They're normal. What's not healthy is straight up, that you get these euphoric markets. That's how you get a financial crisis," Bessent told NBC's "Meet the Press" Sunday.

• "It would have been much healthier if someone had put the brakes on in '06, '07. We wouldn't have had the problems in '08," Bessent said, referring to the global financial crisis.

By the numbers: After hitting highs on Feb. 19, the S&P 500 fell 10% through March 13, while the Nasdaq fell more than 11%.

• Both are among the world's worst-performing major indices this year.

The intrigue: U.S. stocks rallied on President Trump's election, before starting to fall once he began implementing his tariff policies.

• Both indices rose 6% to 9% from Election Day through their Feb. 19 peak.

Between the lines: Over the last week Trump imposed steel and aluminum tariffs globally, threatened (and then withdrew) further retaliatory tariffs against Canada, and promised 200% tariffs on European wine and champagne.

• A key measure of big CEOs' confidence in the economy dipped, even as Trump brushed off C-suite concerns, saying they had "plenty of clarity."
• While stocks fell, gold surged to an all-time high above $3,000, as investors and governments sought tariff-safe assets.

Zoom out: "I'm not worried about the markets. Over the long term, if we put good tax policy in place, deregulation and energy security, the markets will do great," Bessent said.

What to watch: Bessent, as he has in recent days, declined to rule out the possibility of a recession.

• He said "there are no guarantees" about what may come, and while he expects an "adjustment" in the economy, "there's no reason that it has to" lead to a full-blown recession.
• "But, you know, I can tell you that if we kept on this track ... what I could guarantee is we would have had a financial crisis," he said.

The Trump Administration on Saturday ordered nearly all 1,300 employees of Voice of America (VOA) to be placed on leave.

• It also terminated funding for its sister broadcasters such as Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), Radio Free Asia (RFA) and Middle East Broadcasting Networks.

Why it matters: The decision sparked outrage from press freedom groups who say gutting those programs represents the latest effort by the Trump Administration to abandon the historic role the U.S. has played in championing democracy and press freedom abroad.

Catch up quick: VOA is the largest of five international broadcasters represented by U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM), formerly the Broadcasting Board of Governors.

• Those broadcasters operate on Congressionally-approved funding.
• VOA was created more than 80 years ago to combat Nazi propaganda during WWII. It's mission is to promote democracy and American interests abroad through fact-driven journalism.
• A legal firewall is supposed to protect it from any government interference. Those boundaries were tested during the first Trump Administration.

Zoom in: On Saturday, employees at VOA were informed by USAGM's director of human resources that they were placed on leave, barring them from entering VOA's headquarters and using USAGM-provided equipment.

• The move came as part of a directive issued late Friday by The White House to reduce statutory functions of "unnecessary governmental entities to what is required by law."
• USAGM special advisor Kari Lake cancelled USAGM's 15-year lease, with a notice calling it "obscenely expensive."
• Other USAGM-funded broadcasters were told their funding would be terminated.

What they're saying: "Attempts to defund @RFERL would be a massive gift to America's enemies, many of whom are already celebrating," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty president and CEO Steve Capus said in a statement.

• "VOA needs thoughtful reform, and we have made progress in that regard. But today's action will leave Voice of America unable to carry out its vital mission. That mission is especially critical today, when America's adversaries, like Iran, China, and Russia, are sinking billions of dollars into creating false narratives to discredit the United States," Voice of America director Michael Abramowitz wrote on LinkedIn.

Zoom out: Trump allies have long criticized the VOA and USAGM press agencies as propagandists. Elon Musk has called for VOA to be shut down.

• Saturday's actions were foreshadowed two weeks ago, when Gavin Kliger, a former Twitter software engineer who is now part of Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) team, was spotted inside VOA headquarters, sources told Axios.
• The week prior, USAGM placed one of the VOA's most visible journalists, chief national correspondent Steven Herman, on "excused absence" pending an HR investigation, and reassigned the broadcaster's longtime White House bureau chief Patsy Widakuswara to another beat.

Yes, but: Attempts to defund USAGM-funded entities were halted by courts during the first Administration, and could come up against legal pressure again this time around.

• Michael Pack, the conservative filmmaker who was nominated by President Trump to lead USAGM during his first term, was accused of fraud, as well as misuse of office, during his short tenure from 2020 to 2021.

What to watch: The gutting of USAGM's broadcast agencies would leave an information vacuum in parts of the world where fact-based journalism is difficult to access, advocated have argued.

• "The termination of RFA's grant is a reward to dictators and despots, including the Chinese Communist Party, who would like nothing better than to have their influence go unchecked in the information space," RFA president and CEO Bay Fang said in a statement.

President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely speak this week as part of Trump's push to reach a 30-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, White House envoy Steve Witkoff said Sunday.

Why it matters: Witkoff met the Russian president for several hours on Thursday. While Ukraine agreed to Trump's ceasefire proposal, Putin refused to accept it unconditionally.

Driving the news: In an interview with CNN's Jake Tapper, Witkoff described his four-hour meeting with Putin as "positive" and added the discussion was "solutions-based".

• He claimed Putin accepts "Trump's philosophy" of ending the war with Ukraine.
• "The two sides are a lot closer today than they were a few weeks ago. We narrowed the differences," Witkoff said.

Behind the scenes: Witkoff said Trump is personally involved in the diplomatic efforts with Russia and Ukraine.

• He said he briefed Trump from the U.S. embassy in Moscow right after the meeting with Putin.
• Witkoff said Trump held a meeting with his senior advisers on Saturday about the efforts to reach a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and more discussions are expected to take place today in order to " narrow the differences even further."
• "We hope to see a ceasefire within weeks," Witkoff said.

What to watch: Witkoff said U.S. officials will hold separate talks this week with teams from Ukraine and Russia.

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Saturday that he appointed a negotiating team led by his chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, and including Ukraine's foreign and defense ministers.
• Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke on Saturday with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and "discussed next steps to follow up on recent meetings in Saudi Arabia and agreed to continue working towards restoring communication between the United States and Russia," the State Department said.

The intrigue: Trump announced on Saturday that he appointed General Keith Kellogg as Special Envoy to Ukraine. That's a narrowing of Kellogg's previous mandate as envoy for Ukraine and Russia.

• Trump said Kellogg "will deal directly with President Zelensky, and Ukrainian leadership. He knows them well, and they have a very good working relationship together."
• The reason behind the move seems to be Russian reluctance to deal with Kellogg.

At least 40 people are dead after tornadoes, high winds and wildfires hit more than a half-dozen states since Thursday.

Threat level: Although the Sunday outlook was less dire, more severe thunderstorms with potential tornadoes were expected from Pennsylvania to Florida.

We are actively monitoring the severe tornadoes and storms that have impacted many States across the South and Midwest — 36 innocent lives have been lost, and many more devastated. The National Guard have been deployed to Arkansas, and my Administration is ready to assist State…

— Donald J. Trump Posts From His Truth Social (@TrumpDailyPosts) March 16, 2025

• Fatalities occurred in Georgia, Mississippi, Arkansas and Alabama from tornadoes that raced at highway speeds on Friday through Saturday night and into Sunday morning.
• States of emergency were in effect due to storms in Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama and Arkansas, where President Trump said in a Sunday statement the National Guard had been deployed.
• The storms had prompted the National Weather Service to issue a rare "high risk" threat designation for Mississippi and Alabama on Saturday, as multiple rounds of intense thunderstorms swept across these states.
• Hard-hit communities include Taylorsville, Miss., and Calera, Ala., among many others, after tornadoes struck at night.
• The storms even targeted at least one NWS office, with forecasters at NWS Birmingham forced to take shelter as a tornado passed close to their building Saturday evening.

Situation report: The extreme storms have resulted in at least 12 deaths reported in Missouri, six in Mississippi and three each in Alabama and Arkansas.

• Dust storms that caused low visibility on Friday resulted in road crashes that killed at least eight people in Kansas and four others in Texas.
• Oklahoma officials confirmed at least four deaths due to "dangerous" wildfires with "straight-line-winds" that saw Gov. Kevin Stitt declare an emergency in 12 counties on Saturday.

State of play: Severe thunderstorms were bringing scattered damaging wind swaths and some tornadoes into Sunday evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

• Tornado warnings were in effect for parts of Florida and North Carolina, and watches for other portions N.C. and southern Virginia as of Sunday night.
• About 38 million people live in areas designated at "slight" to "enhanced" risk of severe thunderstorms on Sunday.

• Dozens of tornadoes, many of them confirmed by the NWS, have been reported from the Midwest to the Southeast since Friday.
• These numbers are likely to increase on Sunday, despite the lower overall risk level.

Yes, but: As damaging and deadly as this event was, it was not the historic outbreak feared in some states, particularly Alabama.

• Meteorologists are likely to spend years studying what set this storm apart from past landmark outbreaks in order to better forecast them ahead of time.

Context: Climate change is altering the environment in which severe thunderstorms and tornadoes form.

• Studies show that while some ingredients, such as humidity and atmospheric instability, are likely to increase with a warming climate, others may do the opposite.

Yes, but: When the right mix of ingredients are present, as they have been during the past few days, climate change may lead to larger severe weather outbreaks.

The intrigue: The Southeast, home to so-called "Dixie Alley," has been particularly hard-hit by tornado outbreaks in recent years beginning during March.

Between the lines: This severe weather outbreak has been testing NOAA's ability to handle a large-scale, deadly weather event in the wake of laying off about 800 staff, including more than 100 meteorologists, in late February.

• These layoffs reduced staffing at some local weather forecast offices to threadbare levels, causing some to reduce their services.
• More layoffs of up to around 1,000 NOAA employees are possible in coming weeks, though it's not clear if those would fall at other parts of the agency than NWS.

The bottom line: The tornado and damaging straight-line wind threat is not over yet, as this long-lasting outbreak stretches into another day.

Go deeper:

What we know about how climate change affects tornado outbreaks

NOAA cuts could ground some Hurricane Hunter flights

2nd judge orders agencies to reinstate thousands of fired federal workers

Editor's note: This a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

Warm weather, affordability and politics have prompted a teenage migration from the Northeast to the South.

Why it matters: Large southern state schools, many in already expanding metro areas, are attracting a geographically diverse student body as Americans are increasingly disillusioned with the value of higher education.

• "They're seen not only as more fun, but also more accessible," Jeff Selingo, author of college admissions books, told Axios.

The big picture: Many public southern schools have lower tuition rates than their private counterparts, and they prioritize merit scholarships, Selingo said.

• The more exciting draws? School spirit and football culture.

By the numbers: In two decades, 84% more students from the North attended public schools in the South, per a Wall Street Journal analysis last year. It jumped 30% from 2018 to 2022.

• Louisiana State University saw a nearly 500% increase in attendance from students in the Northeast from 100 students in 2014 to 568 in 2023, according to an Axios analysis of National Center for Education Statistics data.
• The University of Tennessee in Knoxville and the University of Mississippi had significant increases as well.

Between the lines: Politics are also a rising factor in some students' decision.

• Colleges in Republican-led states returned to in-person classes sooner than colleges in Democratic-led states after the onset of COVID. High school students who sat through virtual classes during the pandemic may have been inclined to flock south for a more authentic college experience.
• "Students who were looking at colleges saw more freedom and fun in the South than they saw up North," Selingo said.

Zoom in: More recently, elite colleges in the Northeast and California were the main sites of pro-Palestinian protests that sparked clashes between demonstrators and school administrations.

• "Students have said to me, 'I don't want to go to a college where everybody's angry at each other and everybody's fighting over everything,'" said Maria Laskaris, a counselor at Top Tier Admissions, a higher education consulting firm.
• "It's not that they don't want to be challenged. They're looking for a good education, an active and generally happy student body."
• Politically moderate or conservative students could feel that they'd better fit in at schools in Republican-leaning states, Selingo said, as slightly more young people identify with conservatives.

What's next: Alumni of these schools are likely to stay in the South for work after graduating, as the population in cities such as Raleigh, Charlotte, Nashville, Atlanta and Austin have been growing faster than the country overall.

• About half of graduates work in the same metro area as their college, and two-thirds work in the same state, per 2024 research from the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
• "Suddenly you're living there and raising the next generation of kids," Selingo said.

Behind the scenes: The Common Application, which allows students to apply to multiple schools at once, used to primarily serve private and highly selective schools, per Education Week. It's now become a major resource for students applying to public colleges and universities.

• In 2023-24, applications to public schools on the platform surpassed private for the first time, per a report.

The bottom line: "It is becoming almost impossible to get into the most competitive schools," Laskaris said.

• "And at some point, I think students are going to say 'Why am I chasing something? Look at this wonderful school that has a much more generous admit rate that gives me everything I want."

Go deeper: America's college chaos

In public, President Trump is blunt, salty, mean, flattering and gossipy. In private, he's the same man — with an extra dash of profanity and edge.

Why it matters: Axios White House reporter Alex Isenstadt captures the two Trumps in a series of never-before-reported moments in his new book, "Revenge: The Inside Story of Trump's Return to Power," out Tuesday.

• Here's a sneak peek:

1. "I'm going to squash this guy like a bug."

2. "If you need a bed to lay down in, there's one here on the plane. If you feel sick and you need to lay there, you can lay on it. Just don't tell Melania. She doesn't like other women on my bed."

3. "Honey, I need to fix this."

4. "He's f--king fired. Get him fired now. Have someone walk him off the property."

5. "Listen, everybody. There will be no retribution, there will be no revenge. Wink, wink."

6. "Go tell Lindsey we're not friends anymore."

7. "E. Jean Carroll says I f--ked her. Stormy Daniels says I f--ked her. But I never f--ked them. Everyone's f--king everybody, but I never f--ked any of these people."

8. "Convict me and send me to Rikers already. At least they probably have the heat turned on."

9. "It was Jared's thing, and Jared's a Democrat."

10. "Youngkin's pretty good, isn't he?"

—Trump to then-Sen. and vice presidential prospect Marco Rubio of Florida, referring to another vice presidential contender, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

11. "Can you give me a copy of these? Because I want to make sure I can show reporters that my cognitive function is 100%. You can't say the same about Joe Biden."

12. "Wow. Steve is even more blind than I thought he was if he thinks Tom Cotton has charisma."

13. "He was like a beggar. I could have said: 'Drop to your f--ing knees, Ron.'"

More on the book.

Editor's note: This story has been corrected to say Trump was found liable for sexually abusing (not assaulting) Carroll.

President Trump's tariffs are rattling the economy and drawing attacks from Democrats. But some key party members are largely backing his approach — arguing that Democrats need their own pro-tariff agenda to win back working-class voters.

• Instead of warning about tariffs hiking prices, they say, Democrats should be talking about how they'd use tariffs more effectively — even if that means using them against allies, including Canada and Mexico.

Why it matters: It's the latest example of Democrats' soul-searching and agenda-tweaking after Trump made inroads among blue-collar workers with promises to use tariffs to boost American manufacturing.

Driving the news: Democrats across the Rust Belt and in several congressional swing districts, along with leaders of historically Democratic unions, have voiced support for many of Trump's tariffs — even if they believe he's haphazardly implementing them.

• Rep. Jared Golden of Maine introduced legislation to put a 10% tariff on all goods coming into the U.S. He told Axios: "The world is changing, and some Democrats haven't quite caught up to that fact."
• Golden, whose largely rural district voted for Trump in 2020 and 2024, added: "I think Trump did identify the problem. In many ways, Democrats are doubling down [on free trade] in reaction to him."

"Some have said that we have really healthy trade with Canada, and I don't agree," Golden added. "I'm not arguing we should embrace tariffs as part of a campaign strategy. I'm arguing we should do it based on the merits of the policy and what is good for working-class Americans."

• The United Auto Workers union, which endorsed then-President Biden last year, said this month: "We are glad to see an American president take aggressive action on ending the free trade disaster that has dropped like a bomb on the working class."

Faiz Shakir, a close adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) who ran his 2020 presidential campaign, told Axios: "I disagree with the Democrats who live in the framework that we just need cheap goods from China and Mexico, and their message is: 'Washing machines and avocados are going to get more expensive.'"

• Shakir said he believed Trump was implementing tariffs poorly, but added: "There's a desire for tariffs for a reason. Voters hear that Trump is making these corporations pay a price for shipping jobs overseas."

Rep. Chris Deluzio (D-Pa.) has criticized Trump's "chaotic" implementation of tariffs, but argued that "the answer isn't to condemn tariffs across the board."

• "Democrats need to break free from the wrong-for-decades zombie horde of neoliberal economists who think tariffs are always bad," he wrote in a New York Times op-ed.

Between the lines: Many other Democrats have tried to find a middle ground — avoiding a reflexively anti-tariff stance while criticizing Trump's tariffs against U.S. allies.

• Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) told Axios in a text message that Trump's "blanket tariffs — especially against Canada and Mexico — have hurt farmers who import feed for cattle, have increased grocery prices, and have hurt many small business owners, convenience stores and restaurants."
• "I am for strategic tariffs against China as part of smart industrial policy," he added. "Not blanket tariffs on our allies and food and farm items."

The other side: Some Democrats think Trump's tariffs are bad policy and will create even higher prices after years of relatively high inflation.

• Some Democrats believe Trump, who promised to lower prices, is making himself politically vulnerable with his new tariffs.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, who's weighing a 2028 presidential run, tweeted: "The president should be focused on making life easier for American families, not harder. A trade war with Canada and Mexico will do the exact opposite, raising prices at the grocery store, gas pump and more."

• Larry Summers, a top economic adviser for Presidents Clinton and Obama, said the tariffs could move the U.S. toward stagflation — a scenario with high inflation and unemployment plus anemic economic growth.
• "These policies are a major penalty to U.S. consumers that reduce the real income of middle-class families," he told The Free Press.

Flashback: The parties are in a historic muddle when it comes to trade and tariffs.

• Democrats used to be more skeptical of free trade, but Clinton and Obama were largely supportive of free trade deals like NAFTA.
• Republicans were mostly unified behind free trade deals, but now are largely acquiescing to Trump's agenda.

Trump, long critical of free trade deals, made tariffs and protectionism a centerpiece of his campaigns in 2016, 2020 and 2024.

• That's partly why the Biden administration kept in place some of Trump's tariffs — while arguing it was applying pressure in more targeted and strategic ways.

The U.S. military conducted wide-ranging airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen on Saturday, President Trump said.

Why it matters: It was the largest wave of U.S. strikes in Yemen since Trump assumed office.

• A U.S. official said Saturday's strikes were not a one-off but the start of a series of "relentless" U.S. strikes against the Houthis that are expected to last for days or maybe even weeks.
• Houthi-affiliated media reported at least 13 people were killed in the strikes.

Driving the news: According to local reports in Yemen, numerous explosions took place in Sana'a around 1:30pm ET.

• Trump said the strikes were aimed at "terrorists' bases, leaders, and missile defenses."
• Several other strikes took place in different parts of Yemen on Saturday.

Behind the scenes: Trump had ordered the Pentagon to start preparing military plans against the Houthis after his decision to re-designate them as a terrorist organization several weeks after he assumed office, the U.S. official said.

• After the Houthis downed a U.S. military drone two weeks ago, preparations for the strikes accelerated, and in recent days the main question became about the timing of the strikes, according to the U.S. official.
• Trump approved the attack plan on Friday and on Saturday he gave the final order to carry it out, the U.S. official said. The Trump administration informed a small number of key allies in advance. Israel was notified before the strikes, a senior Israeli official told Axios.
• The U.S. official said other relevant allies and senior members of Congress were informed after the strikes began.
• After the strikes, Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The State Department said Rubio informed Lavrov of the strikes in Yemen and told him "continued Houthi attacks on U.S. military and commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea will not be tolerated."

What they are saying: "Today, I have ordered the U.S. Military to launch decisive and powerful Military action against the Houthi terrorists in Yemen. They have waged an unrelenting campaign of piracy, violence, and terrorism against American, and other, ships, aircraft, and drones," Trump wrote on his Truth Social account.

• Trump said Houthi attacks "have cost the U.S. and World Economy many BILLIONS of Dollars while, at the same time, putting innocent lives at risk".
• "The Houthi attack on American vessels will not be tolerated. We will use overwhelming lethal force until we have achieved our objective," he said, hinting that the strikes are part of a wider military campaign.
• "To all Houthi terrorists, YOUR TIME IS UP, AND YOUR ATTACKS MUST STOP, STARTING TODAY. IF THEY DON'T, HELL WILL RAIN DOWN UPON YOU LIKE NOTHING YOU HAVE EVER SEEN BEFORE!" Trump wrote.

The other side: The Houthis condemned the strikes and claimed the U.S. conducted them because of the Houthi support for Gaza.

• "This aggression will not pass without a response and this escalation will be met with escalation," the Houthis said in a statement.

The big picture: Trump said the strikes against the Houthis are also a message to Iran, to which he sent a letter earlier this week proposing negotiations on a new nuclear deal.

• "To Iran: Support for the Houthi terrorists must end IMMEDIATELY! Do NOT threaten the American People, their President, or Worldwide shipping lanes. If you do, BEWARE, because America will hold you fully accountable and, we won't be nice about it!" Trump stressed.

Catch up quick: The Houthis began launching ballistic missile and drone attacks against Israel less than two weeks after the Hamas October 7 terror attack.

• They also started launching attacks against commercial ships in the Red Sea and effectively immobilized one of the most important international commercial shipping lanes in the world.
• The Biden administration started mobilizing an international coalition against the Houthis in December 2023.

The U.S. and the UK conducted air strikes against the Houthis a month later. There have been numerous strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen since then, but they haven't deterred additional attacks.

• When the Gaza ceasefire agreement was approved on Jan. 17, the Houthis announced they would halt their attacks against Israel and in the Red Sea as long as the ceasefire remained in place.
• The Houthis began threatening to resume their attacks in the last two weeks after the ceasefire deal wasn't been extended and as Israel announced it is suspending humanitarian aide shipments into Gaza.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details and context.

Former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, a Democrat turned independent, is taking revenge on Democrats who criticized her longstanding push to keep the Senate filibuster.

Why it matters: This week's Democratic campaign to shut down the government called for using the filibuster, which some Democrats spent the last few years arguing shouldn't exist.

Zoom in: The filibuster is a procedural rule that forces the Senate to have 60 votes to advance most legislation.

• Republicans have 53 Senate seats, but the filibuster meant they needed 60 votes to advance the government funding resolution that passed Friday.
• Back in 2022, Sinema and former Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia resisted calls to abolish the filibuster so Democrats could pass gun control, voting rights and abortion rights laws, despite only having 50 Senate seats.
• Both Sinema and Manchin started as Democrats, but left the Democratic Party while in the Senate.

Sinema resurfaced comments by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who said Thursday she's feeling "outrage and betrayal" over Senate Dems not using the filibuster.

• Back in 2022, AOC said "we could protect Roe tomorrow, but Sinema refuses to act" to get rid of the filibuster.
• "Change of heart on the filibuster I see!" Sinema posted on Saturday.

Sinema also noted progressive leader Rep. Pramila Jayapal's (D-Wash.) demands for Schumer to filibuster.

• Back in September, Jayapal called the tactic the "Jim Crow Filibuster."
• "Just surprised to see support for the "Jim Crow filibuster" here, Sinema posted on Saturday.

With just mere seconds of audio, artificial intelligence voice cloning programs can make a copy of a voice, virtually indistinguishable from the original to the human ear.

Why it matters: That tech can have legitimate accessibility and automation benefits — but it can also be an easy-to-use tool for scammers. Despite that threat, many products' guardrails can be easily sidestepped, a new assessment found.

• The "granny scam," as experts refer to imposter scams that sometimes weaponize voice cloning tech to scam people using their loved ones' voices, is not a new phenomenon.
• However, "the pace at which it's now happening and the believability of the voice has fundamentally changed," says Rahul Sood, the chief product officer at Pindrop, a security company that develops authentication and fraud detection tools.
• It's not just individuals who are at risk, he noted. The corporate sector faces many cyber threats, from account takeover scams targeting call centers to recruiting impersonation.

Zoom in: A study out this week from Consumer Reports found many leading voice-cloning technology products lacked significant safeguards to prevent fraud or misuse.

• For four of the six products in the test set, researchers were able to "easily create" a voice clone using publicly accessible audio, with no technical mechanism to ensure the creators received the speaker's consent to use their voice or to limit the cloning to the user's own voice.
• For four of those services, it was free to create a custom voice cloning.

By the numbers: While the Federal Trade Commission does not have specific data on voice-cloning scams, over 845,000 imposter scams were reported in the U.S. in 2024.

The intrigue: Scams and spoofs using AI voice cloning and deepfake technology also often impersonate well-known individuals, like celebrities, CEOs and politicians.

• After former President Biden's voice was cloned using AI in fake robocalls discouraging voting in the New Hampshire primary, the Federal Communications Commission unanimously outlawed the use of AI-generated voices in scam robocalls.
• In July, Elon Musk shared a fake Kamala Harris ad that featured a phony voice that sounded just like the then-vice president — teeing up a debate over whether such media is obvious "parody" or dangerous AI.

What they're saying: Such scams on social media platforms are only growing, and voice cloning "is far more mature" and widely accessible today than facial cloning technology, Sood says.

• The commercial services Pindrop tracks are often "very easy to use," Sood added.
• He said the quality of voice cloning has now passed the so-called "uncanny valley" — meaning the human ear can no longer detect the difference between what is human and what is machine-generated.

Philadelphia attorney Gary Schildhorn detailed to a Senate panel in 2023 how he almost became the victim of a voice-cloning imposter scam, when he received a call from his "son," who tearfully told him he was in a car accident with a pregnant woman and was in jail.

• What ensued was a multi-layer scam that ended with Schildhorn being told to wire money to the man claiming to be his son's attorney.
• "I'm a father; I'm a lawyer," he said. "My son's in trouble, a pregnant woman was hurt, he's in jail; I'm in action mode."
• But before he could send the money, Schildhorn received a call from his son — who had not been in an accident and was not in jail.

The Consumer Reports assessment recommended mitigation practices that include requiring unique audio consent statements and watermarking AI-generated audio.

• For individuals, it can be prudent to change the way people think about sharing their voices online, such as through custom voicemail messages, experts told Axios.

Yes, but: Steve Grobman, McAfee's chief technology officer, acknowledges it's not practical in a digital world to expect everyone to erase their voice from the internet.

• "I think of it a little bit like developing a healthy skepticism," he said, recommending a family code word to verify a caller's identity.

The bottom line: Grobman highlighted the legitimate, powerful benefits voice cloning tech can have: providing a voice for those who may not be able to speak, bridging language divides and saving time and resources.

• "I think in many ways, we have to think about our voice being out there as something that is a cost of doing business for all the great things the digital world of 2025 can bring to us," he added.

Go deeper: IBM researchers use AI voices to hijack phone calls

A dangerous Saturday into Saturday night is set to unfold across the Deep South and into parts of the Southeast as a prolific tornado outbreak hits at least half a dozen states.

Threat level: The NOAA Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare "high risk" outlook indicating forecasters' confidence in numerous, powerful tornadoes, particularly in parts of Mississippi and Alabama.

• The severe weather is forecast to get underway by late morning in Louisiana and Mississippi, with storms racing northeast with time.
• A potent mix of abundant wind shear, atmospheric instability and unusually strong upper level winds will drive this tornado outbreak, forecasters warned.
• The NWS forecast office in Birmingham released a statement on X Friday noting the rare combination of ingredients that could make this event so significant, said: "This will be a very scary situation for many."

State of play: A "Particularly Dangerous Situation" (PDS) tornado watch is in effect until 6pm CT for much of Mississippi and northern Louisiana, for "numerous strong long-track tornadoes" as thunderstorms develop Saturday.

• A second PDS tornado watch is in effect for western, central, and northern Alabama and a sliver of southeastern Mississippi until 8pm CT.
• And a less extreme, non-PDS tornado watch is in effect in middle Tennessee until 9pm CT.
• Multiple damaging tornadoes have been observed in Mississippi and Alabama.

High risk region focuses on Mississippi and Alabama

The high risk zone (Level 5 out of 5 alert level) encompasses more than 3 million people on Saturday including the cities of Birmingham, Jackson, Miss., Tuscaloosa, Ala. and Hattiesburg, Miss.

• About 11 million people are located in the moderate risk zone (Level 4 out of 5 level) Saturday into Saturday night, including New Orleans and Baton Rouge, La., along with Montgomery and Mobile, Alabama and Columbus, Ga.
• Alabama Governor Kay Ivey (R) issued a state of emergency for the entire state on Friday.
• "The state of Alabama is at risk for potentially dangerous, severe weather throughout this weekend, so it is critical that everyone stays very aware of their local forecasts," Ivey said.

Zoom in: The SPC is using strong language to describe the tornado threat in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama in particular on Saturday.

• "A tornado outbreak is expected across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley," SPC forecasters wrote in an online discussion Saturday morning.
• "Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening."
• The reference to "violent" tornadoes refers to twisters of EF-3 intensity or greater.

The tornado threat will continue into the overnight hours on Saturday into early Sunday, particularly in Georgia, parts of Tennessee and the Florida Panhandle.

• Overnight tornadoes are particularly deadly because people have a harder time receiving warnings and getting to shelter.

NWS urges preparation for tornado outbreak

Zoom out: The storms on Saturday come after severe weather swept across the Mid-South and Midwest on Friday night, killing at leasst 10 in Missouri as about two dozen tornadoes were reported across multiple states.

• According to the AP, a total of at least 17 people have been killed in multiple states so far in what is now the second day of a severe thunderstorm outbreak.

Context: Climate change is altering the environment in which severe thunderstorms and tornadoes form.

• Studies show that while some ingredients, such as humidity and atmospheric instability, are likely to increase with a warming climate, others may do the opposite.

Yes, but: When the right mix of ingredients are present, as they are on Saturday, climate change may lead to larger severe weather outbreaks.

The big picture: The NWS is urging people to prepare for the tornado outbreak, with some private sector forecasters instructing residents to be near tornado shelters by midday Saturday.

• Gather important documents, charge your devices, and do not hesitate to act when prompted," the NWS forecast office in Birmingham stated in a forecast discussion.
• "These storms could be moving 50+ MPH when a warning is issued, and time will be of the essence."

The intrigue: The Southeast has been particularly hard-hit by tornado outbreaks in recent years beginning during March.

Between the lines: This severe weather outbreak will test NOAA's ability to handle a large-scale, potentially deadly weather event in the wake of laying off about 800 meteorologists and other staff in late February.

• These layoffs reduced staffing at some local weather forecast offices to threadbare levels, causing some to reduce their services.

The bottom line: This severe weather outbreak is a high-end, potentially historic event.

Go deeper:

What we know about how climate change affects tornado outbreaks

NOAA cuts could ground some Hurricane Hunter flights

2nd judge orders agencies to reinstate thousands of fired federal workers

U.S. forces with help from Iraqi intelligence and security killed the No. 2 global ISIS leader, "one of the most important" of the entire organization, per U.S. Central Command.

The big picture: Abdallah Makki Muslih al-Rifai, also known as Abu Khadijah, oversaw global operations and logistics for the extremist group and directed "a significant portion" of its global financing, Central Command said Friday in an X post.

Zoom in: Khadijah was killed in a precision airstrike in Al Anbar Province, Iraq on Thursday along with another ISIS operative.

• "After the strike, CENTCOM and Iraqi forces moved to the strike site and found both dead ISIS terrorists," Central Command said.
• "Both terrorists were wearing unexploded 'suicide vests' and had multiple weapons."
• Khadijah was identified through DNA obtained when he "narrowly escaped" an earlier raid, per CENTCOM.

What they're saying: "Abu Khadijah was one of the most important ISIS members in the entire global ISIS organization," Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, CENTCOM commander, said.

• "We will continue to kill terrorists and dismantle their organizations that threaten our homeland and U.S., allied and partner personnel in the region and beyond."
• President Trump declared for "PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH" on Truth Social Friday, praising U.S. forces as "intrepid warfighters."

More from Axios:

• U.S. conducts strikes against ISIS operatives in Somalia
• ISIS, refugees, populism: How Syria changed everything