About 1 in 15 U.S. adults has been on scene at a mass shooting, a new University of Colorado Boulder study published in JAMA Network Open reveals.

Why it matters: The study underscores the pervasiveness of gun violence in the U.S. and the increasing likelihood that everyday Americans could be caught in the crossfire.

The big picture: "Our findings lend credence to the idea of a 'mass shooting generation,'" senior author David Pyrooz said in a statement.

• "People who grew up in the aftermath of Columbine have these unique experiences that are really distinguishable from the older population," he said.

By the numbers: About 7% of 10,000 U.S. adults surveyed in January 2024 said they had been present at a mass shooting — defined as an incident where four or more people were shot.

• 2% reported being injured, whether by gunfire, by shrapnel or in the chaos of people fleeing.
• Among those uninjured, about 75% said they suffered psychological distress.
• More than half of those who had witnessed a mass shooting said it happened within the last decade.

Between the lines: Gen Z and men were at the highest risk, the study found.

• And for most survivors, the violence hit close to home. More than three-fourths of mass shootings took place in their own communities.

Zoom in: Colorado has experienced at least 61 mass shootings in the last 10 years, killing 82 people and injuring 246, according to data on the state health department's website.

• In 2023 alone, there were 16 mass shootings in the state — the highest in at least a decade, according to the Gun Violence Archive.
• Data for 2024 is not readily available.

What they're saying: "It's not a question of if one will occur in your community anymore, but when," Pyrooz said. "We need to have stronger systems in place to care for people in the aftermath of this tragic violence."

The other side: Despite the grim reality, mass shootings actually declined nationwide last year — dropping nearly 25% from 2023.

• The U.S. reported 503 mass shootings in 2024, down from 659 the year before, per the Gun Violence Archive.
• The decrease could be attributable to the waning social and economic upheavals set off by the coronavirus pandemic, Giffords Law Center's research director Kelly Drane told Axios last year.

What we're watching: Colorado lawmakers are considering a controversial gun control bill that would restrict the sale of most semiautomatic firearms, like the one used by the Boulder King Soopers shooter in 2021.

• The legislation — sponsored by Sen. Tom Sullivan, a Centennial Democrat whose son was killed in the 2012 Aurora theater shooting — has been amended more than a dozen times, Colorado Politics reports.

Senate Democrats left a private meeting Wednesday saying there aren't enough votes to advance the short-term funding bill that passed the House on Tuesday.

Why it matters: This raises the chances of a government shutdown this weekend. Democrats are in the unusual position of being willing to risk a shutdown to negotiate a better deal with Republicans.

• "Democrats had nothing to do with this bill. And we want an opportunity to get an amendment vote or two. So that's what we are insisting on to vote for cloture," Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) told reporters after the meeting.
• "There are not the votes right now to pass it," Kaine said.
• Republicans will need at least eight Senate Dems to vote for the bill to move it forward, as 60 votes are needed to advance most Senate legislation.

Zoom in: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer spent weeks pushing his caucus to keep their powder dry on a shutdown. He privately counseled them that advocating for a shutdown was bad politics for Democrats.

• But he has also insisted that any legislation to keep the government open must be done in a bipartisan manner. The bill passed by the House on Tuesday was written exclusively by Republicans.
• Schumer is balancing his deep distaste for a shutdown against external pressure from the grassroots and Democratic voters to do more to stand up to President Trump.

President Trump's letter to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was delivered on Wednesday by a senior adviser to the President of the United Arab Emirates, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman told Axios.

Why it matters: Trump said on Thursday that he sent a letter to Khamenei the day before, proposing direct negotiations between the countries on a new nuclear deal.

• Iran said for several days that they haven't received such a letter.

Behind the scenes: According to a source familiar, Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff visited Abu Dhabi on Tuesday and met with Emirati President Mohammed Bin Zayed.

• The source said Witkoff gave the letter to the Emiratis so they could deliver it to the Iranians.
• An Emirati official declined to comment. The White House and the State Department didn't immediately respond to questions.

What they are saying: Emirati diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash met with Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi this afternoon, Iran Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ismail Baghaei said.

• Gargash carried the letter from Trump to Khamenei.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional information.

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) announced Wednesday that she won't seek reelection in 2026, further complicating Democrats' efforts to win back a majority.

Why it matters: Senate Democrats are already defending open seats in the battleground states of Michigan and Minnesota. Adding New Hampshire to the list makes reclaiming a majority an even tougher proposition.

• "Today, after careful consideration, I am announcing that I have made the difficult decision not to seek reelection to the Senate in 2026," Shaheen said in a video posted on X.

Editor's note: This is a breaking news story. Check back for updates.

CIA director John Ratcliffe spoke by phone Tuesday with the head of the Russian foreign intelligence agency (SVR) Sergey Naryshkin, a source familiar with the call confirmed to Axios.

Why it matters: This was the first call between the spy chiefs since President Trump assumed office. It came a day after Ukraine endorsed a U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire and U.S. officials said the onus was now on Russia.

• The source said the purpose of the call was to establish a line of communication between Ratcliffe and Naryshkin.
• It is also part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to engage with Russia and improve relations with Moscow.

The big picture: The call was one of several conversations between U.S. and Russian officials expected to take place over the next few days.

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the U.S. would brief Russia on Wednesday about the talks with the Ukrainians and the ceasefire proposal. "If they say 'no' it will tell us a lot," Rubio said.
• Rubio was speaking on a his flight to a G7 meeting in Canada from Saudi Arabia, where he and national security adviser Mike Waltz met with Ukrainian officials on Tuesday.
• Trump envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to visit Moscow on Thursday to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The other side: The Kremlin stressed on Wednesday it wants to hear directly from the U.S. before commenting on whether it agrees to the ceasefire.

• The Kremlin said it expects Rubio and Waltz to brief their Russian counterparts, and didn't rule out a Trump-Putin call.

The latest: Russian news agencies first reported on Wedneday's call between the spy chiefs, quoting a statement from the SVR.

• According to the statement, Naryshkin and Ratcliffe discussed cooperation between the two intelligence services "in areas of common interest and the resolution of crisis situations."
• The SVR said the two spy chiefs agreed "to maintain regular contacts...with the aim of helping to ensure international stability and security, as well as reducing confrontation in relations between Moscow and Washington."
• The CIA has not commented on the call.

State of play: The Trump administration restored arms shipments and intelligence sharing with Ukraine after Kyiv endorsed the ceasefire proposal.

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said on Wednesday he wants to use the 30-day ceasefire to draft a peace agreement.
• After weeks of pressuring Ukraine, U.S. officials now say the ball is now in Russia's court.

States are warning that huge headaches are on the way as a wave of fired federal workers try to file for unemployment insurance.

Why it matters: Tens of thousands of probationary workers were abruptly fired across multiple federal agencies, without severance. Many may struggle financially, with broader ripple effects on local economies.

• Unemployment insurance can be a lifeline.

Where it stands: State attorneys general laid out the situation in a lawsuit over the firings filed last week.

• Because the firings happened without any advance notice and in a "chaotic" manner, they're exacerbating strains on state unemployment systems, per the lawsuit.
• States are getting inundated with claims. Maryland now sees 30 to 60 new claims every day. In the first quarter of last year, the state received only 189 jobless claims for federal workers.
• The firings "impose a significant strain" on the Maryland department's resources, per the lawsuit. The effects will stretch beyond unemployment claims to other areas of state business, the lawsuit warns.

The big picture: State agencies are underfunded and underresourced, particularly at this moment when overall joblessness is low, says Michele Evermore, a senior fellow at the National Academy of Social Insurance, who worked on unemployment insurance in the Biden administration.

How it works: The unemployment process for federal workers works differently than the private sector, where employers pay into the system through a payroll tax.

• The federal government doesn't pay up until firings happen, and is then responsible for reimbursing states and providing agencies with verification on wages and other information, like the reason for "separation."
• Since agencies are giving different reasons for the firings — some citing performance and others restructuring — the unemployment investigators will have to look deeply into each claim, per the lawsuit. That will be a time-consuming process.

Between the lines: Ordinarily, when there are dismissals on a wide scale, they proceed in an orderly way, with advance notice given to states. That's not what happened here.

• Evermore said many state agencies aren't hearing back from federal agencies as they investigate claims: "This is where the real hold-up is."

For example: Jacob Bushno, a veteran in southern Illinois fired from his job at the U.S. Forest Service on Feb. 18, filed for unemployment right away.

• The state agency is still investigating his claim, with an interview set for Wednesday. The battle to get unemployment insurance, on top of the abrupt firing, has "been another struggle," Bushno tells Axios.

For the record: When asked for comment about the status of these workers, the White House did not address the specific situation. Instead deputy press secretary Harrison Fields said the president has a mandate to uproot "waste, fraud, and abuse."

• "The personal financial situation of every American is top of mind for the President, which is why he's working to cut regulations, reshore jobs, lower taxes, and make government more efficient."

What to watch: We're still at the beginning stages here. Observers expect unemployment claims to pick up in the coming weeks, but for now, some workers are waiting to see if they wind up getting their jobs back.

Antisemitic conspiracy theories are flooding America's most popular pro-Trump podcasts, exposing deep political and moral fissures at the heart of the new MAGA coalition.

Why it matters: At a moment of record-high antisemitism in the U.S., an astonishing split screen has emerged between the Trump administration and prominent influencers that reliably spread MAGA's message.

• President Trump has prioritized cracking down on antisemitism and criticism of Israel on college campuses, including by revoking federal funding and arresting pro-Palestinian activists.
• But many of the podcasts Trump appeared on during the campaign are simultaneously platforming far-right provocateurs who are openly hostile toward Israel and use racist tropes about Jewish influence.

Driving the news: Conspiracy theories about Israel, Jeffrey Epstein and Jewish elites dominated four MAGA-friendly podcasts last week that had previously hosted Trump. All came out within the same 48-hour period.

• Candace Owens, a pro-Trump lightning rod who left The Daily Wire last year over her embrace of antisemitic rhetoric, was a guest on "This Past Weekend with Theo Von."
• Andrew Tate, the misogynist influencer accused of sex trafficking and rape in Romania, appeared on the Nelk Boys' "Full Send" podcast and Patrick Bet David's "PBD Podcast." He also attended UFC 313 in Las Vegas, where he was welcomed by UFC president and Trump ally Dana White.
• Ian Carroll, an independent researcher who has suggested Israel was involved in 9/11, spent nearly three hours on the biggest platform of all — "The Joe Rogan Experience."

Together, the conversations were broadcast to tens of millions of listeners on Spotify, YouTube and other platforms.

The big picture: Both sides of the MAGA divide agree that last week marked an inflection point in the mainstreaming of antisemitism on the so-called New Right.

• "For the first time in my lifetime, a lot of successful Jewish friends called me worried this week — names we all know — asking what is going to happen as these libels re-enter the mainstream, and are shared by millions," Palantir co-founder and Trump ally Joe Lonsdale wrote on X.
• "We live now in a world where the red pill has gone mainstream," white nationalist Nick Fuentes gleefully declared on his show, rattling off a list of other personalities — including rapper Ye — who are now openly antisemitic.

Between the lines: Alternative media and "manosphere" influencers helped fuel Trump's election by bringing millions of politically disengaged Americans — especially young men — off the sidelines.

• For many young Americans, their political awakening is coinciding with the stunning normalization of antisemitic hate across platforms they consume.
• "For the first time that we've seen, there's a higher propensity for young people to express intense antisemitism versus the older generation," Anti-Defamation League CEO Jonathan Greenblatt told Axios.
• "We're in a moment which doesn't have precedent," he warned, urging Trump and other "responsible" leaders to call out the "radicals who are in orbit of this movement."

What they're saying: "There is no greater friend to the Jewish community than President Trump, who is leading the charge to combat anti-Semitism at home and abroad," White House spokesman Harrison Fields told Axios in a statement, pointing to Trump's pro-Israel policies in his first term.

• "In just his first month in office, President Trump signed an Executive Order combatting anti-Semitism, negotiated a cease fire in Gaza, and successfully returned American and Israeli hostages to their families."

The intrigue: MAGA's growing divide over antisemitism has parallels to the movement's internecine feud over H1-B visas that exploded on X in December.

• Elements of the base that support Christian white nationalism clashed with Trump's Silicon Valley boosters, including Elon Musk, over hiring highly skilled foreign workers from countries like India.
• In both cases, the Trump administration quietly has sought to keep extremists at arm's length and away from policymaking. But the pressure from MAGA's grassroots is undeniable.

The bottom line: Some conservatives, especially the staunch Israel supporters who make up the foundation of the Republican Party, are fighting to prevent extremists from hijacking the president's base.

• "The embrace by so many prominent voices of demented, conspiratorial, anti-Jewish voices is one of the saddest, most alarming events in my lifetime," The Daily Wire co-founder Jeremy Boreing, a leader in conservative media, wrote on X.
• "Do not let the times cost you your soul," he warned.

Top corporate leaders' boost of economic exuberance that followed the November elections has receded, according to a new survey of major-company CEOs obtained exclusively by Axios.

Why it matters: The data from the Business Roundtable is the latest sign that a volatile policy environment is dampening the outlook in Corporate America — and these survey results were mostly collected before last week's on-then-off tariffs and ensuing stock market volatility.

• President Trump met with BRT members — the CEOs of America's largest companies — yesterday afternoon.

By the numbers: The group's economic outlook index fell 7 points from its December release. At 84, the level is now about the same as it was in the first half of last year and in line with its historical average, implying steady overall growth ahead.

• The survey results dipped most for hiring expectations, with that sub-index falling 13 points to 54 — barely in expansion mode.
• The CEOs expect 2.5% GDP growth this year — in line with results over the last few years.
• Responses were collected between Feb. 19 and March 7, with 150 CEO's of major U.S. companies participating. President Trump implemented 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4 before relaxing them two days later.

What they're saying: "The modest dip," said BRT CEO Joshua Bolten, "is tied to several factors, including signs of economic headwinds and an atmosphere of uncertainty in Washington."

• Bolten added that the Trump administration "can help turn the tide" by moving quickly on extending 2017 tax reforms, scaling back regulations, reforming permitting, and "avoiding the use of overly-broad, long-lasting tariffs."
• "The survey results signal that our members are cautious about the next six months, but also see opportunities to improve growth," Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins, the BRT's chair, said.

The bottom line: Before the latest wave of volatility and emergence of recession fears, America's most important corporate decision-makers were becoming more wary of the growth outlook.

As Elon Musk's slash-and-burn budget cuts hit Republican and Democratic areas alike, some GOP lawmakers are privately back-channeling with the Trump administration to try to shield their constituents from the fallout.

Why it matters: Republicans have largely cheered on DOGE in public — but behind the scenes, many of President Trump's allies fear potential political backlash to the cuts, and are scrambling to limit the damage.

• Of the 60 congressional districts with the most federal workers, a slight majority are represented by Republicans, Axios previously reported.

What we're hearing: Several House Republicans told Axios they have succeeded in — or at least contributed to — getting DOGE to reverse certain cuts through private back-channeling.

• Rep. Cliff Bentz (R-Ore.) said he raised concerns about job cuts at the Bonneville Power Administration: "Whether it was my remarks back to DOGE or somebody else's, it got fixed. They ... hired back 30 people."
• Said Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Iowa): "When we have heard from constituents who have been directly impacted by this in a way that harmed them, I have reached out directly to the agencies and teams."
• Nunn cited Agriculture Department cuts that "could ... have impacted farmers" in his district, telling Axios he "talked to the administration on it, they recognized it, they heard it, and we got those positions reinstated."

State of play: Musk's DOGE has implemented abrupt, sweeping changes across the federal government through mass workforce purges and the dismantling of entire programs and agencies.

• The moves have drawn significant legal pushback, but Musk wants DOGE to continue to grow, saying Monday on Fox Business' "Kudlow" show that he aims to roughly double DOGE's size.
• GOP lawmakers also have faced backlash at town halls in their districts over the DOGE cuts, prompting House Republicans' campaign chief to encourage a shift from in-person to virtual town halls.

Zoom out: Other Republicans have gone public with their concerns. Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) said in a local media interview that Tinker Air Force Base in his state "cannot operate if we lose 600 civilian employees there."

• He also decried cuts to another Oklahoma military installation, McAlester Ammunition Plant: "We will not be able to keep aircraft in the air long-term for the Air Force. That is really important for us to be able to have."
• Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) this week praised DOGE for reversing cuts to his district: "After working closely with DOGE and the administration, I am thrilled to announce that common sense has prevailed."

The other side: Democratic lawmakers — many of whom have been vehemently opposed to the DOGE cuts — complain that they lack the same pipeline to voice their concerns that their Republican counterparts enjoy.

• Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) told Axios: "I have not heard of any Democrats getting that kind of treatment. I think Tom Cole, obviously, has better connections with the oligarchs than we do."
• "I'm trying to help people, but so far I've not come with any back channel to Donald Trump," said Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.), whose district in the D.C. suburbs has one of the largest concentrations of federal workers.

The bottom line: "That is no way to run a government," Huffman said. "That is, sort of, the ultimate partisan crony capitalism ... but apparently that's what we've come to these days."

Go deeper: Musk plans to double DOGE staff amid federal government cuts

Donald Trump Jr. is endorsing Rep. Byron Donalds for Florida governor, following in his father's footsteps and cementing Donalds as the frontrunner over possible contender Casey DeSantis, the state's first lady.

Why it matters: The move by Trump Jr. — a key player in MAGA media — comes after a presidential race in which Donalds was a constant pro-Trump presence on the campaign trail.

• Florida's 2026 race is loaded with potential intrigue: It's likely to be a show of the Trump machine's power in Florida, where DeSantis' husband, Ron, is the term-limited governor who briefly was Donald Trump's rival in the 2024 GOP primary.

Zoom in: Trump Jr., 47, hosts an influential podcast, "Triggered," a GenX pillar of MAGA's media universe. He's a trusted political adviser to his dad.

• President Trump pre-endorsed Donalds five days before the congressman's Feb. 25 announcement on Sean Hannity's show on Fox News.
• Donalds' campaign is run by Trump campaign vets: Tony Fabrizio (pollster for both Trump and Donalds), Danielle Alvarez (senior adviser for both campaigns), and adviser Ryan Smith (consultant for the pro-Trump MAGA Inc. super PAC in 2024).

By the numbers: A recent Fabrizio poll of likely GOP primary voters in Florida showed Donalds with a small lead over Casey DeSantis, 34%-30%.

• After they were told the governor would endorse his wife, she marginally led Donalds. But the Trump effect was bigger: When respondents were told about Trump's endorsement, Donalds' lead over DeSantis grew to 45%-23%.

The bottom line: Donalds led Casey DeSantis 38%-28% when voters were informed of both endorsements — an indication that Trump's endorsement had more sway that Ron DeSantis'.

• The poll also showed that Vice President Vance would beat Ron DeSantis in a hypothetical 2028 presidential primary by 14 percentage points.
• And as Axios first reported, the same poll indicated former Rep. Matt Gaetz would have a big lead in a hypothetical matchup against Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier, Gov. DeSantis' former chief of staff.

The big picture: During the past week, the Donalds campaign strategically leaked the poll results to send a message: Florida is Trump Country, and the DeSantis stewardship in Tallahassee has a 2026 expiration date.

• Registered Republicans vastly outnumber registered Democrats in Florida, so the victors in statewide GOP primaries are heavy favorites to win office.

What they're saying: "My friend Byron Donalds is a great patriot and has my full endorsement to serve as Florida's next governor," Trump Jr. said in a statement provided first to Axios.

• "Byron is a fighter and a true champion for our America First movement. He will be a great leader for Florida and he will fight alongside my father to make America greater than ever before!"

Flashback: President Trump and Ron DeSantis had a falling out after the governor decided to run against him for president in 2024.

• DeSantis quickly made amends after he was walloped in Iowa, but his annoyance with Donalds (who endorsed Trump early on over the governor) erupted the day before Donalds announced his bid for governor.
• "You got a guy like Byron, he just hasn't been a part of any of the victories that we've had here over the left over these last years. He's just not been a part of it," DeSantis said at press conference.
• Said a DeSantis confidant: "If Byron thinks all this will scare Casey out of the race, it's not going to work. It might have the opposite effect."

Trump calls DeSantis for advice on occasion and likes golfing with the governor.

• To try to keep Trump on the sidelines in the governor's race, Ron and Casey DeSantis golfed with Trump two weekends ago at the president's West Palm Beach course.
• It's unclear what promises, if any, Trump made.

The European Union announced Wednesday counter tariffs of 26 billion euros ($28.33 billion) on U.S. goods, "matching the economic scope" of President Trump's levies.

The big picture: Trump's 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports took effect earlier on Wednesday.

Driving the news: The EU will end on April 1 the suspension of countermeasures the bloc announced during the first Trump administration, per a Wednesday statement from the European Commission.

• "These countermeasures target a range of US products that respond to the economic harm done on €8 billion of EU steel and aluminium exports," according to the statement.
• "Second, in response to new U.S. tariffs affecting more than €18 billion of EU exports, the Commission is putting forward a package of new countermeasures on US exports" that will "come into force by mid-April, following consultation of Member States and stakeholders."

What they're saying: "Tariffs are taxes. They are bad for business, and even worse for consumers," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement.

• "These tariffs are disrupting supply chains. They bring uncertainty for the economy. Jobs are at stake. Prices will go up. In Europe and in the United States," she said.
• "The European Union must act to protect consumers and business. The countermeasures we take today are strong but proportionate," added von der Leyen, who emphasized the EU is "ready to engage in meaningful dialogue."

Go deeper: Trump sees "period of transition" as recession fears rise

Greenland's center-right Demokraatit opposition party claimed victory in the territory's election Tuesday, in what could be one of the most consequential polls in its history.

Why it matters: The new government will need to navigate President Trump's intense public interest in acquiring the resource-rich territory, as the Arctic region attracts more global attention.

State of play: Five of the six main parties on the ballot favor Greenland gaining its independence from Denmark, including the pro-business social liberal Demokraatit (Democrats). However, the party's policy is for a more gradual process toward self determination.

• Greenland's Prime Minister Múte Egede, from Inuit Ataqatigiit, a pro-independence democratic socialist political party, announced the snap elections last month, with independence expected to play a key role. The island is currently a semi-autonomous territory of the Kingdom Denmark.
• The Demokraatit won over 30% of the votes and Inuit Ataqatigiit just over 21%, according to preliminary results posted by Greenlandic media.
• Greenland's lawmakers passed a bill last month banning foreign or anonymous political donations ahead of the election.

What they're saying: Egede said on Facebook he respected the outcome of the election and is "excited to hear what the parties will offer for the negotiations" for forming a coalition government.

Between the lines: While the territory is self-governing, Denmark retains control over its "foreign, security, and defense policy" and border control issues, according to the International Trade Administration.

The big picture: Greenland is a mineral-rich territory with a strategic location providing key access to the Arctic, making it highly covetable in the eyes of the Trump administration.

• While many Greenlanders want full independence, the island faces an existential threat from Trump, who has vowed to take over Greenland "one way or the other."
• The U.S. has a military base in Greenland and has had since 1951 an agreement with Denmark on defending the world's largest island that's not a continent.

Zoom in: Trump, whose interest in the island dates back to his first term, reiterated his interest in Greenland during his joint address of Congress earlier this month, but he has not specified what he envisions Greenland becoming.

• Egede has rebuked Trump, saying the territory is "not for sale" and that Greenlanders "do not want to be Americans, nor Danes."

More from Axios:

• Greenland pushes for closer ties with U.S.
• Poll: 85% of Greenlanders don't want to join the U.S.
• House GOP crafts bill to let Trump purchase Greenland
• What Trump's Greenland desires mean for America's Arctic race

Rebecca Falconer contributed reporting.

President Trump's top GOP detractors in Congress have something in common — they're from Kentucky.

Why it matters: Rep. Thomas Massie, Sen. Mitch McConnell and Sen. Rand Paul are comfortable telling their leadership "no," and two Kentucky races are drawing MAGA attention.

• Massie: Trump has vowed to get personally involved in ousting Massie, who was the only House Republican to vote against the Trump-backed short-term spending bill.
• Paul is expected to be the only Senate Republican to vote against the short-term spending package this week. He also voted against two Trump nominees on Tuesday. Paul's relationship with Trumpworld has deteriorated over the years.
• McConnell: For the fourth time, the former Senate GOP leader voted against one of the president's nominees this week, opposing Lori Chavez-DeRemer as Labor secretary.

Between the lines: Massie is fundraising off Trump's primary threat.

• "He's attacking me and Canada. The difference is Canada will eventually cave," Massie told reporters.

Zoom in: Trump allies are carefully watching the race to replace McConnell when he retires next year.

• McConnell took aim Tuesday at the administration's handling of the war in Ukraine. "Freezing lethal assistance and intelligence support to Ukraine made Russia's job easier," he said in a Senate floor speech.
• "Daniel Cameron is literally Mitch's protégé," Donald Trump Jr. said of the former Kentucky attorney general in a podcast with Nate Morris, who is viewed as the outsider contender.
• "We can not replace Mitch McConnell in the US Senate with someone who is entirely controlled by Mitch McConnell," Trump Jr. posted on X.

The U.S. House voted Tuesday to pass a short-term federal funding bill that would stave off a government shutdown until at least September.

Why it matters: The bill removes the specter of a shutdown hanging over President Trump as he tries to use the early months of his presidency to pass a sprawling fiscal bill.

• The bill passed the House virtually along party lines, with all Republicans except Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) voting for it and all Democrats except Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) voting against it.
• The vote was 217-213.
• It still needs to pass the Senate, however, where it will need the support of at least seven Democrats to overcome the 60-vote filibuster threshold.

Between the lines: Democrats coalesced against the bill because it does not include language that would restrict DOGE from being able to unilaterally cut congressionally appropriated spending.

• Leadership privately pressed its members to put up a united front in opposing the measure.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional reporting.

Elon Musk has told the White House he plans to give $100 million to President Trump's political operation, according to a person familiar with his plans.

Why it matters: The contribution is unheard of in both amount and type: Musk, who is technically a special government employee, is the world's richest person.

• Musk donated more than $250 million to a pro-Trump super PAC during the 2024 election campaign. That made Musk Trump's biggest financial booster.
• Now, he is the face of the DOGE team that's driving the Trump administration's huge cuts to the federal workforce and agencies.
• The New York Times first reported the latest planned contribution.

Zoom in: Trump's political team has set up a pair of organizations: MAGA Inc. and Securing America's Greatness. It is not clear if Musk will give to either of those two groups, or if he plans on giving to another one that will be controlled by Trump's team.

• MAGA Inc. and Securing America's Greatness are run by Chris LaCivita and Tony Fabrizio, who were top advisers on Trump's 2024 campaign and have close ties to the Trump White House.
• The two groups have raised around $500 million -- a massive sum that will be used to help expand the Republican majorities in the midterm elections and to pressure Republicans to support Trump's agenda.
• Representatives for Musk and the White House did not respond to Axios' requests for comment in the evening.

Southwest Airlines will soon end its free checked bags policy, the company announced on Tuesday.

Why it matters: The airline has long touted that "bags fly flee," which has been a calling card for the company throughout its 54-year history.

• Jettisoning the policy will likely make distinguishing itself from budget competitors like Spirit and Frontier harder.

State of play: The new policy changes go into effect starting May 28.

• Starting then, only Southwest's Rapid Rewards A-List Preferred members and passengers who book Business Select will receive two included checked bags.
• Select customers including frequent flyer A-List members and Southwest credit card holders will be allotted one included checked bag.
• The Dallas, Texas-based airline announced increased points for customers who book higher-priced seats (e.g. Business Select) while reducing the points earned for less expensive seats (Wanna Get Away and Wanna Get Away Plus).
• Southwest will also add a basic economy fare class, the last major airline to offer that tier.

Our thought bubble: With the end of free checked bags, there's little left separating Southwest from airlines with higher prices but more perks, or low-cost barebones carriers — leaving it stuck in the muddy middle, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick writes.

What they're saying: In a video statement Tuesday morning, Southwest CEO Bob Jordan said the changes "will help us return to the levels of profitability we all expect, and to support our collective long term success. It's also about adapting to what our customers want."

• United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said at a JP Morgan Chase online event Tuesday that Southwest's policy change is like "the slaying of a sacred cow."
• Delta President Glen Hauenstein, who also spoke at the conference, said he thinks some Southwest customers could now be "up for grabs."

Catch up quick: Waning consumer demand has hit Southwest, Delta and American Airlines hard, the three companies announced this week in warnings that first-quarter results will disappoint.

• Southwest cut its unit revenue growth forecast on Tuesday, citing lower government travel and "softness in bookings and demand trends as the macro environment has weakened."
• Delta and American cut their own forecasts as well.

Delta CEO Ed Bastian told CNBC companies have started "to pull back in terms of corporate spending."

• "Consumer spending started to stall," he added, "Largely domestic, largely in the close-in, but it was also exacerbated, as you know, [by] the uncertainty that's out there, and consumers in a discretionary business do not like uncertainty."

Go deeper: How Southwest's business model has changed

The National Transportation Safety Board "urgently recommended" Tuesday that the Federal Aviation Administration permanently prohibit helicopter traffic near Reagan National Airport when two runways are in use following the deadliest aviation disaster in the U.S. in decades.

The big picture: Reagan National Airport has the nation's busiest runway, while commercial planes and choppers, often carrying top officials, share the nearby airspace. The midair collision that left 67 dead amplified long-held concerns about congestion in the busy skies around DCA.

• Helicopters were temporarily restricted from operating over the Potomac River near DCA after the crash, with some exceptions for medical or law enforcement flights.

Driving the news: The NTSB, in an urgent safety recommendation report, urged the FAA to prohibit helicopters from flying in part of a route near DCA when runways 15 and 33 are in use.

• But the NTSB also noted that it is "critical" for public safety helicopter operations to have a designated alternative route when the runways are being used.

The latest: Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said Tuesday that he will comply with the NTSB's recommendations, with exemptions for VIP and lifesaving missions.

Context: The crash around DCA occurred during the commercial aircraft's final approach to runway 33.

• The NTSB cautioned in its report that helicopters traveling through the Route 4 corridor at the maximum authorized altitude could have just about 75 feet of vertical separation from a plane landing at the runway.
• "[T]he NTSB concludes that existing separation distances between helicopter traffic operating on Route 4 and aircraft landing on runway 33 are insufficient and pose an intolerable risk to aviation safety by increasing the chances of a midair collision," the report read.

NTSB Chair Jennifer Homendy cited "an intolerable risk" during a Tuesday briefing urging the FAA to adopt her board's recommendations.

• While reviewing over 944,100 commercial operations at DCA between October 2021 and December 2024, the NTSB identified over 15,200 occurrences where there was a lateral separation of less than one nautical mile and vertical separation of less than 400 feet between helicopters and commercial planes.
• In half of the near midair collisions, the helicopter may have been above the route's altitude restriction. Two-thirds of the occurrences were at night.

What they're saying: Mary Schiavo, the former inspector general of the Department of Transportation, characterized the NTSB action as "highly unusual" in a statement provided to Axios.

• "The release of an emergency recommendation requesting the FAA take immediate action, before the completion of the NTSB investigation is rare," she said.

Out thought bubble: An incident of this magnitude demands some form of permanent change, but officials often wait for more information from investigators before making any long-term changes in response, Axios aviation expert Alex Fitzpatrick says.

Case in point: In 2006, after a plane carrying New York Yankees pitcher Cory Lidle struck a skyscraper, the FAA tightened restrictions on small planes flying above New York's East River. Lidle and his flight instructor died in the crash.

What they're saying: Secretary Duffy in the days after the crash suggested military chopper missions could be done at "a different time of night." Duffy questioned why officials were being ferried by helicopters for "convenience" in the area — calling it unacceptable.

• "Get in a damn Suburban and drive," he said at a Feb. 5 press conference.
• Duffy added, "We need a whole upgrade of the airspace."

Go deeper: How American Airlines communicated through tragedy

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional statements.

The Department of Education is cutting its workforce of more than 4,100 people by nearly 50%, the agency announced on Tuesday evening.

The big picture: Education Secretary Linda McMahon confirmed to Fox News the action was the first step toward President Trump's plans for a total shutdown of the agency.

• Trump floated the idea of "disbanding" the agency on the 2024 election campaign trail.
• "That was the president's mandate," McMahon said on Fox News' "The Ingraham Angle." "His directive to me, clearly, is to shut down the Department of Education which we know we'll have to work with Congress to get that accomplished."

State of play: "Reduction in Force" notices started to go out to impacted employees at 6pm ET Tuesday, according to a source familiar with the matter.

• Those staff members will be placed on administrative leave beginning March 21, the department said.
• Every part of the department is expected to be impacted.
• However, the agency said it will continue to deliver on all statutory programs that fall under its purview — including formula funding, student loans, Pell Grants, funding for special needs students and competitive grant-making.

Zoom in: Among the 2,183 workers being laid off is almost 600 staffers who agreed to resign or retire over the past seven weeks. These include:

• 259 employees accepted the Deferred Resignation Program.
• 313 employees accepted the Voluntary Separation Incentive Payment.

What they're saying: McMahon said in a statement that Tuesday's reduction reflects the department's "commitment to efficiency, accountability, and ensuring that resources are directed where they matter most: to students, parents, and teachers."

• She later told Fox News host Laura Ingraham the Trump administration was "not taking away education, the president never said that."
• McMahon said Trump was "taking the bureaucracy out of education so that more money flows to the states."
• She added: "Better education is closest to the kids, with parents, with local superintendents, with local school boards. I think we'll see our scores go up with our students and we can educate them with parental input as well."

Editor's note: This article has been updated with details from Education Secretary Linda McMahon's interview on Fox News.

Disney's $1.5 billion investment in Epic Games last year is part of a broader push to amplify its franchise flywheel with new tech, Disney Experiences chair Josh D'Amaro and Disney Entertainment co-chair Alan Bergman told Axios in an interview from SXSW.

Why it matters: "From an investor point of view, the combination of strong IP and ambitious investment leads to returns," D'Amaro said.

• "If you look at the return on invested capital over the period of time when we started leaning in [to tech innovation], it goes up by 3 times," D'Amaro said.
• A 2024 regulatory filing shows that return on investment is even higher when looking at certain franchises, such as "Frozen" and "Toy Story."

State of play: D'Amaro and Bergman appeared on stage at the annual SXSW conference in Texas on Saturday to unveil a slew of tech-enabled additions to their franchises.

• They were joined by director Jon Favreau who showed off new BDX droid robots built by Disney's Imagineering team for his upcoming film "The Mandalorian & Grogu."
• The free-roaming animatronic robots, which resemble the famous Star Wars character R2-D2, will also be brought to Disney's parks and experiences, per D'Amaro.
• Favreau is leveraging Epic Games' 3D creation tool Unreal Engine for many of the new tech experiences related to his upcoming movie.

Zoom out: Disney has long invested in technology, but as the media landscape shifts away from traditional television and movie theaters, it's had to rely more on innovation and collaboration among its studios and parks to push its IP forward.

• Over the past few years, Disney has brought more of its franchises into its parks as part of that effort.
• A new Monsters, Inc.-themed land is coming to Hollywood Studios. New Encanto and Indiana Jones attractions are in the works at Disney's Animal Kingdom. An Avatar-themed destination is coming to Disney California Adventure.
• Great park experiences are often what inspire new film sequels, Bergman said, pointing to examples such as Zootopia land, which opened in Shanghai in 2023, ahead of a planned sequel.

The big picture: Disney's streaming business was the focal point of its epic stock rally during the pandemic. But in the years since, it's faced increased pressure on Wall Street to make its streaming products more profitable and find new ways to monetize its IP.

• Collecting data from across all of Disney's consumer touch points has been a major focus for the company over the past few years, Bergman said.
• "We're getting more and more sophisticated about how we use that data in the right way to create a guest experience and ultimately to create that synergistic effect," D'Amaro said.

What to watch: The integration of Epic Games' tech across Disney's franchises will hopefully result in more consumer experiences that resonate with younger generations, per D'Amaro.

• "Technology is going to allow us to serve consumers where they are and bring the Disney brand to consumers that may not be familiar with us, and create that generational effect," he said.

President Trump's new FTC chair Andrew Ferguson told a group of big business CEOs on Tuesday that he wouldn't let proposed deals "die on the vine," but warned them not expect automatic approval for big mergers.

Why it matters: Ferguson is explaining the Trump administration's approach to M&A, giving fresh guidance to the group it will need to help bolster the economy and usher in a new age of prosperity.

• "If we think conduct or merger is going to hurt Americans economically, I'm taking you to court," Ferguson told a gathering of Yale's CEO Caucus in Washington on Tuesday morning, according to a recording of his remarks obtained by Axios.
• "But if we don't, we'll get the hell out of the way," he said in the closed-door meeting, which included JPMorgan Chase's Jamie Dimon, Goldman Sachs' David Solomon and Dell's Michael Dell.
• "But I want to be really clear about something. This isn't the Bush administration."

A spokesperson for the FTC declined to comment.

Zoom out: Bankers, dealmakers and CEOs are looking for clarity from Ferguson on how he will deviate, if at all, from the strict scrutiny that former FTC chair Lina Khan pursued under President Biden.

• Last month, the FTC announced that it would keep the Biden administration's merger guidelines in place, raising concerns in the business and banking community that Trump's White House might be more hostile to big mergers than they would have preferred.

Driving the news: Before a range of CEOs, including those from Edison International, Gap, Motorola Solutions and Pfizer, Ferguson explained the approach he will take towards reviewing mergers.

• "We are in this catastrophic, dangerous debt crisis, and the only way out is not just cutting government spending, it is creating an innovative and vibrant economy for all," he said.
• "The last thing we want are monopolies (that) slow innovation, slow growth and injure American consumers."
• "But we also don't want regulators who slow down the process."

Zoom in: Ferguson took a detour from traditional M&A talk to explain to his audience the anger many conservatives feel towards big business.

• He recalled his time working for former Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) in 2020, when he would receive calls from the business community on social issues.
• "Hey, cops are racist. Congress should do something about police reform. I sat there and said, 'Why are you all calling me about policing?'" he recounted.
• "And then I watched in 2020 businesses started to censor Americans because they wanted to talk about how masks weren't working, or ask questions about whether vaccines were effective," he said.
• "And for the first time, I really started to understand the real connection between large economic power and the transfer and leveraging of that power for social and political impact," he said.

Go deeper: The FTC under Trump made its first move on Monday to challenge private equity in health care, Axios Pro reported, suing to block the $627 million acquisition of a maker of specialized coatings for catheters and other medical devices.