Senior U.S. and Ukrainian officials are expected to meet in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday to discuss efforts to reach a ceasefire in the war with Russia, two sources with knowledge of the meeting said.

Why it matters: It will be the first high-level meeting between the countries since the public spat between President Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office last week.

• The clash led to an unprecedented crisis between the U.S. and Ukraine and to the suspension of U.S. weapons shipments and intelligence sharing with Ukraine.

Driving the news: The meeting in Saudi Arabia comes after a similar meeting U.S. officials had with their Russian counterparts in Riyadh two weeks ago.

• That meeting created anxiety and anger among Ukrainian leaders who were upset they weren't invited to participate and heard about the meeting from media reports.

Behind the scenes: The upcoming meeting was scheduled on Wednesday during a phone call between White House national security adviser Mike Waltz and Zelensky's chief of staff Andrei Yermak, one source said.

• The meeting is expected to take place in Riyadh with White Envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio expected to join Waltz, the two sources said. Yermak will lead the Ukrainian delegation.
• Zelensky himself is expected to visit Saudi Arabia next Monday and Tuesday and meet with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, according to a Ukrainian official.

What they're saying: Zelensky said on Thursday in Brussels that Ukraine and the U.S. "have resumed work" and expressed hope that "a meaningful meeting will take place next week."

• The White House and Yermak's office didn't comment.

What to watch: Ukrainian officials say they are still ready to sign the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal that Zelensky and Trump were supposed to sign on Friday but was put on hold after their meeting in the Oval Office.

Editor's note: This story was updated with additional details.

President Trump said on Thursday he would pause 25% tariffs on most imports from Mexico until April 2.

Why it matters: It's the latest abrupt pivot in the Trump administration's trade policy that is rattling businesses and consumers.

The big picture: In the last month, the White House announced tariffs on incoming goods from Mexico and Canada that were later paused, imposed again and now paused once more.

The stock market has bounced up and down in recent days in response to news about tariffs — generally falling on news of tariffs being imposed, and rising on any news about a pullback.

• But that pattern broke Thursday. Stocks not only remained in the red, but fell further after Trump's pause announcement.
• There is growing evidence that tariff uncertainty might jolt the global economy. Consumers have ramped up inflation expectations in the wake of tariffs.

Catch up quick: Trump said that all goods covered by the United States Mexico Canada trade agreement (USMCA) — negotiated in Trump's first term — would get a temporary reprieve.

• "I did this as an accommodation, and out of respect for, President Sheinbaum," Trump posted on Truth Social, referring to Mexico's president.
• Earlier Thursday, Commerce secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC the administration would likely announce a similar pause for Canada through April 2, when the administration plans to announce wide-ranging reciprocal tariffs.

Here is a timeline of the on-again, off-again North American trade war:

• Feb. 2: Trump imposes across-the-board 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, with 10% tariffs on China
• Feb. 3: Trump announces deal to pause tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods for 30 days
• Feb. 26: White House says Canada and Mexico will be subject to tariffs after pause
• March 4: Tariffs go into effect, while rates on China imports are doubled to 20%; Canada retaliates with 25% tariff on select U.S. exports; Lutnick hints that the tariffs will be adjusted but says "no pause"
• March 5: White House grants automakers covered under USMCA a 30-day tariff pause
• March 6: Trump announces 30-day pause for tariffs on Mexico imports after Lutnick hints a broad pause across North America until April 2

Editor's note: This is a developing story. Check back for updates.

Republicans overwhelmingly support President Trump's tariffs in spite of the higher costs they're likely to face as a result of them, according to a new Economist/YouGov poll out this week.

Why it matters: After promising to lower prices if elected, Trump's tariffs targeting the U.S.'s biggest trade partners will cost the average American household at least $830 per year, economists have warned.

• Trump eased some tariffs on the U.S.' North American neighbors with temporary carve-outs for the auto sector, an industry that relies on free trade with Canada and Mexico.
• The White House is also reportedly considering exemptions for some agricultural goods from the tariffs on Canada and Mexico, Bloomberg reported.

Driving the news: Republicans expressed the strongest support for a 10% tariff on goods from China, with 78% approving of it. Trump has since increased the levy to 20%.

• Just 23% of Democrats and 42% of Independents said they supported a tariff on goods from China.
• The GOP support for 25% tariffs on Canada (57%) and Mexico (68%) was lower, but far outpaced the number of Democrats and Independents who approved of them.

Between the lines: Over half of Republican respondents (56%) acknowledged that increasing tariffs generally increases prices.

• 13% said they thought there would be no effect on prices, while 9% said tariffs would decrease prices and 22% weren't sure.
• 40% of Republicans said that mostly companies and people in the country exporting products would ultimately bear the cost of tariffs.
• Meanwhile, 39% agreed that mostly companies and people in the U.S. would bear the brunt, while 20% said they weren't sure.

The other side: Three-quarters of Democrats said U.S. companies and consumers would mostly feel the cost, with only 10% saying companies and people in the exporting country would.

• 82% of Democrats said that tariffs would increase prices.

State of play: Trump on the campaign trail floated tariffs as "the greatest thing ever invented" and cast them as an economic cure-all.

• Tariffs can raise revenues for imposing governments, but they can also hurt domestic companies and consumers.
• Soybean farmers are one such case study: They've yet to recover the market share in China lost during the Trump 1.0 trade war and now face renewed uncertainty.

Thought bubble, from Axios' Managing Editor for Business & Markets Ben Berkowitz: The results make clear most Americans simply don't believe Trump's long-lived argument that tariffs don't raise prices, and that it's the tariffed countries who really pay.

• Whether they support the tariffs or not may not be relevant in the end, if the mere belief that prices will rise is enough to keep eroding consumer sentiment and holding people back from making big purchases.
• That may be why Trump's language has shifted subtly in recent months, from prices will go down (campaign trail) to prices won't rise as fast (transition) to "a little disturbance" in prices (now).

Methodology: The poll of 1,638 U.S. adults was conducted on March 1-4 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.7% percentage points.

Go deeper: New tariffs hit, but there's a $100 billion hole in the data

After a two-month honeymoon, where the value of just about anything Trump-adjacent rose as he prepared to take office, markets have now soured on many "Trump trades."

Why it matters: At some point, the declines will test whether there's still a "Trump put," as in his first presidency — where Trump tended to swiftly reverse policies the market didn't like — or if Trump 2.0 really doesn't care as much about markets.

The big picture: The economy, as Axios's Courtenay Brown notes, faces a number of potholes, which are all sapping investor confidence.

• But the assets most closely tied to President Trump are falling faster than the broader market — some because hopes about his policies may have exceeded reality, others as consumers and investors sour on the activities of Trump advisors like Elon Musk.

By the numbers: Over the last month, shares of some of the most prominent Trump trade stocks have slumped.

• Peter Thiel's defense contractor Palantir is down 13%, Trump's own social media company Trump Media & Technology Group is down 26% and Musk's Tesla is down 29%.
• Other stocks that rose on hopes of future Trump action are falling on reality, too. Private prison operator GEO Group more than doubled after his election, but is down 10% in the last month.
• All are dramatically underperforming the S&P 500, which is weak too, down 3% over that period. In fact, of the world's major indices, it's one of the worst performers since early February.

The intrigue: It's not just stocks — other Trump trade assets are falling, too.

• "The first crypto president" has seen bitcoin fall 8% in the last month, even factoring in the huge rally he sparked last weekend by advancing the idea of a national crypto reserve.
• The Trump family's own meme coins are tanking, too — Official Trump is down 23% and Melania Meme is down 51%.

Zoom in: Not every Trump trade has gone entirely badly, in the administration's view.

• Yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds are about 14 basis points lower now than they were a month ago, precisely what the administration wants to see over the long term.

Yes, but: Yields aren't falling because things are great, they're falling because the market's nervous about economic growth. As Axios's Felix Salmon notes, recession fears are rising quickly, casting a shadow over markets.

What they're saying: "The tariffs alone aren't enough to hurt the economy in a noticeable way, but when you take tariffs, plus broader worries about the economy, and a Fed that still might take its time on lowering rates, that's when you start to wonder if the record highs in stocks from earlier this year were justified," writes Michael Landsberg, who manages $1 billion as chief investment officer at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management in Florida.

The bottom line: Buy the Trump transition, sell the Trump presidency has worked out relatively well for most investors so far, providing they can stomach what may come next.

The Trump administration's efforts to purge the federal workforce are hitting speed bumps, but they're not stopping.

Why it matters: The firings of tens of thousands of employees happened lightning fast, and more are coming.

• In the meantime workers are eyeing the exits, and the ability of critical government agencies to function is at stake.

Zoom in: In two words, an IRS employee who recently resigned from the agency explained why: "The uncertainty," he told Axios.

• There was the return to office order, but no office to go to. The agency didn't have the space for him. Then there was the "fork in the road" push to resign, rumors of layoffs, and the firings of probationary employees.
• Now the IRS plans to cut its workforce in half, the New York Times reported this week.
• "Are we going to have a job next week? An office?" the IRS employee said, requesting anonymity because he's still working there for a few more days.

Where it stands: Yesterday the USDA was ordered to reinstate nearly 6,000 employees. Last week a federal judge ruled the initial order from the Office of Personnel Management to fire probationary workers was unlawful.

• Though the judge ruled that OPM's orders were illegal, he did not order employees be reinstated for technical reasons, including the plaintiffs' standing to sue and the fact that agencies weren't named defendants.
• The plaintiffs hope the judge will eventually issue such an order, but they must first amend their lawsuit and have another court hearing next week.

Between the lines: Even as some of these fired workers are reinstated, agencies are moving ahead with the next step: Plans to do wide-scale reductions in force that will be harder to overturn.

• In a leaked memo, the Department of Veterans Affairs has outlined its intention to return to 2019 staffing levels, which would mean firing as many as 83,000 workers.

In the meantime, federal workers are in a terrible spot, with no severance, no benefits, and for some, unemployment insurance may be tricky to secure, Michele Evermore, a senior fellow at the National Academy for Social Insurance, told Axios.

The bottom line: Firings, once set in motion, are hard to slow down.

Donald Trump famously believes that "trade wars are good, and easy to win," as he tweeted in 2018. The market, however, believes the opposite: That a trade war is bad, is easy to lose, and could plunge the U.S. into an avoidable recession.

Why it matters: Trump 1.0 listened to the market. Trump 2.0 is very different.

• Traders are no longer convinced they can rely on the "Trump put," the idea that the president will reverse course on policies the market doesn't like.

What they're saying: The clearest articulation of the Trump administration's attitude to the market came from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

• "Wall Street's done great," he said Tuesday, "but we have a focus on small business and the consumers. So we are going to rebalance the economy."

Between the lines: Bessent singled out "the level of the 10-year bond" as "one of the biggest wins for the American people."

• A former macro hedge fund manager, Bessent knows the decline in long-term interest rates is a function of pessimism about future growth, and expectations that the Fed is going to have to keep rates low to stimulate employment.

By the numbers: On February 11, the market put just a 1% probability on the Fed cutting rates four times this year, assuming each cut is 25 basis points.

• Today, the probability of at least four cuts has risen to 30%. The probability of three or more rate cuts has ballooned to 62%.
• Given the stubbornness of inflation, which is likely to become even more stubborn as higher tariffs start to bite, the only reason for the Fed to cut that many times would be a significant economic slowdown, or perhaps even a recession.

The big picture: There is "a new reality of higher domestic prices and weaker growth, owing to Trump's tariff measures," George Vessey, the lead macro strategist at Convera, wrote in a note.

• That in turn is causing the dollar to weaken, which is the opposite of what should happen when tariffs rise, according to textbook economics.
• It's true that all things equal, U.S. tariffs should cause the dollar to strengthen, as fewer dollars get sold to pay for imports.
• But these tariffs are so big, and so potentially damaging to the U.S. economy, that — according to foreign exchange markets — domestic macroeconomic effects are likely to dwarf the effects of capital flows.

Zoom out: The dollar has historically benefited from "safe haven" status. It's a reliable store of value during volatile times.

• When the president of the United States is the person causing all the volatility, however, the dollar looks less attractive on that front.

The bottom line: The stock market is not the economy, especially when it's dominated by megacap tech companies.

• But there are many other indicators of where the markets think the economy is headed, and all of them are flashing "very worried."

A Russian disinformation effort that flooded the web with false claims and propaganda continues to impact the output of major AI chatbots, according to a new report from NewsGuard, shared first with Axios.

Why it matters: The study, which expands on initial findings from last year, comes amid reports that the U.S. is pausing some of its efforts to counter Russian cyber activities.

Driving the news: NewsGuard says that a Moscow-based disinformation network named "Pravda" (the Russian word for truth) is spreading falsehoods across the web.

• Rather than directly sway people, it aims to influence AI chatbot results.
• More than 3.6 million articles were published last year, finding their way into leading Western chatbots, according to the American Sunlight Project.
• "By flooding search results and web crawlers with pro-Kremlin falsehoods, the network is distorting how large language models process and present news and information," NewsGuard said in its report.
• Newsguard said it studied 10 major chatbots—including those from Microsoft, Google, OpenAI, You.com, xAI, Anthropic, Meta, Mistral and Perplexity—and found that a third of the time they recycled arguments made by the Pravda network.

Zoom in: NewsGuard says the Pravda network has spread at least 207 provably false claims, including many related to Ukraine.

• The Pravda network launched in April 2022, following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and has since grown to cover 49 countries and dozens of languages, NewsGuard said.
• Of the 150 sites in the network, about 40 are Russian-language sites using domain names referencing various regions of Ukraine.
• A small number are more focused on themes than regions, it said.
• Pravda is not producing original content itself, NewsGuard says, but instead is aggregating content from others, including Russian state media and pro-Kremlin influencers.

The big picture: Deliberate falsehoods (disinformation) as well as inadvertent misinformation have both been called out as significant — and pressing — risks of generative AI.

• NewsGuard's findings build on a report from February by the U.S.-based American Sunlight Project that warned that the network appeared aimed at influencing chatbots rather than persuading individuals.
• "The long-term risks – political, social, and technological – associated with potential LLM grooming within this network are high," the ASP said at the time.

Between the lines: NewsGuard said the strategy "was foreshadowed in a talk American fugitive-turned-Moscow-based-propagandist John Mark Dougan gave in Moscow last January at a conference of Russian officials."

• Dougan told the crowd: "By pushing these Russian narratives from the Russian perspective, we can actually change worldwide AI."

If you have time to tune into only one person in the interconnected MAGA media ecosystem, follow Donald Trump Jr.

Why it matters: There's no way to track all of the sources. So follow the power and influence. Don Jr. is deeply wired into every major player and most platforms, Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen and Tal Axelrod write in an Axios AM Executive Briefing special report.

Don Jr., 47, is his father's conduit, whisperer and translator of MAGA. President Trump, for all his MAGA clout, has a more traditional media diet, heavy legacy media. Don Jr. eats it all.

• And Don gets credit for amplifying smaller voices of the MAGA faithful — with his father sure to see it. The president gets tweets printed out for him all the time. So he knows what base influencers — and his relatives — are saying.

Another reason to watch the son closely: He'll be a kingmaker if this presidency is considered a success. Vice President Vance, also a MAGA media leading man, is very close to Don Jr. Keep an eye on how much the Trump empire monetizes this presidency — some insiders think the profits could keep MAGA afloat forever.

• Three MAGA figures are particularly close to the extended Trump clan: Tucker Carlson, Turning Point USA's Charlie Kirk and Breitbart's Matt Boyle.

Behind the scenes: Don Jr.'s podcast, "Triggered," singlehandedly drives droves of eyeballs to his favored candidates across the country. We're told he enjoys interviewing them on his show, or simply retweeting them.

• You can ask freshman Republican Sens. Bernie Moreno of Ohio, Jim Banks of Indiana or Tim Sheehy of Montana about the power of Don Jr.'s channels.

💡 Later today: Paid Executive Briefing subscribers get a Zoom briefing by Jim, Mike and a special MAGA expert guest. Plus you'll get this week's 3,500-word special report on MAGA media, and our future MAGA specials. Subscribe here.

Three top political reporters — Josh Dawsey, Tyler Pager and Isaac Arnsdorf — will be out July 8 with "2024: How Trump Retook the White House and the Democrats Lost America," based on 300+ interviews over 18 months.

• "The whole world was against me, and I won," President Trump told the authors in an interview 10 days before his second inauguration.

Why it matters: "2024" promises revelations about "how Trump and his advisers overcame a dozen primary challengers, four indictments, two assassination attempts, and his own past mistakes to defeat the Democrats."

The backstory: The three were colleagues at the Washington Post during the 2024 cycle. Amid Post travails, the trio scattered after the election:

• Dawsey is now a political investigations and enterprise reporter for the Wall Street Journal. Pager is a White House correspondent for the New York Times. And Arnsdorf is a senior White House reporter for the Post.

💭 Pager tells me: "We set out to write this book more than a year before Joe Biden met Donald Trump on the debate stage in Atlanta, because we felt uniquely situated to tell the behind-the-scenes of this historic rematch."

• Dawsey says the authors "obtained recordings and notes of many meetings and traveled across the country."
• Arnsdorf adds that after covering the campaigns in real time, the reporters retraced "every step once we knew the outcome, to pinpoint what really mattered. Even if you read all the daily news coverage published in 2024, you'll find something new on every page."

Go deeper.

Most young Americans have been keeping up with Elon Musk’s DOGE — and it’s not too popular.

The big picture: 87% of 18- to 34-year-olds say they’ve heard a lot or a little about DOGE. And 71% say they strongly or somewhat disapprove of the agency’s work so far, according to a new Generation Lab poll.

• 69% strongly or somewhat disapprove of President Trump’s job performance.

Between the lines: The overall numbers show low approval for Trump and DOGE, but there's a partisan split. There's a great deal of support for both the president and the agency among young Republican respondents.

• 81% who say they're Republican strongly or somewhat approve of Trump, compared with just 10% of Democrats and 29% of Independents.
• 68% of young Republicans approve of DOGE’s work, compared with 9% of Democrats and 29% of Independents.

Methodology: This poll was conducted Feb. 21-28 from a representative sample of 972 18- to 34-year-olds nationwide. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points.

Buy your local economist a drink: The economic backdrop is more chaotic and uncertain than it's been in years — a result of fast-moving and sometimes vague Trump policy.

Why it matters: There is a growing list of factors that could put downward pressure on the economy — tariffs, spending cuts, a looming government shutdown and more.

• America's economy has defied naysayers, but there is no guarantee that continues.
• Forecasters are writing GDP and inflation estimates in pencil, warning that their models can't possibly account for all the ways the jumble of policies could net out.

What they're saying: "It's really drinking from a fire hose at this point," Brian Gardner, chief Washington strategist at Stifel, tells Axios.

• "Trying to understand where things are going is unusually difficult, historically difficult," Gardner adds.

Where it stands: The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, a "nowcast" that uses released data to estimate GDP in real-time, suggests the economy is contracting sharply.

• That is almost certainly not the case, but it is a signal of the huge question marks about what's ahead for the economy.

The backdrop

Trump's epic trade war: The longer the North American and U.S.-China trade war lasts, the more damage it risks for the economy.

• Trump said automakers would get a month-long reprieve from Canada and Mexico tariffs. It was welcomed by the auto industry, though it injected more uncertainty about what happens after the delay.
• More tariffs are on the horizon in the weeks ahead, including a reciprocal plan on April 2 that Trump has called "the big one."

DOGE spending cuts: Tens of thousands of federal workers have been fired or taken a buyout, with more layoffs to come, though some efforts have been halted by federal judges.

• Government employees make up a small share of the overall workforce, but the effects of nixed contracts could ripple out to the private sector.

Shutdown threat: Congress has until March 14 to pass a bill to fund the government or risk a shutdown.

• Republicans want to pass a budget that chops spending to pave the way to enact Trump's fiscal agenda — a difficult task without cutbacks to politically sensitive (and expensive) entitlement programs.
• A prolonged shutdown would delay the data releases necessary to gauge any economic impact from the factors listed here.

Tax cuts: Some CEOs say the extension of Trump 1.0 tax cuts could offset potential economic weakness from the trade war.

• Concerns about blowing out the deficit might hamper that effort.
• The price tag is ballooning. In a congressional address, Trump called for no tax on tips, overtime or Social Security benefits. He pitched tax-deductible interest payments on loans for U.S.-made cars.

Immigration: The construction industry has warned about the potential double-whammy from deportations that could dent labor supply.

Two other factors to watch

Interest rates: The Fed has adopted a wait-and-see approach as inflation looks more sticky and White House policy remains in flux.

• Some economists warn that the trade war could keep inflation high and slow the economy, forcing the Fed to choose: elevated rates to control inflation, or lower rates to contain economic fallout.

AI adoption: In the background of all these factors is questions about how quickly companies are folding AI into their business models — and the ultimate impact on productivity and workforces.

• Companies are investing (or planning to invest) billions of dollars into data centers to power AI that, if fully materialized, might boost the economy.

Florida's next attorney general could be the ex-congressman who almost became President Trump's U.S. attorney general: Matt Gaetz.

Why it matters: Despite the intense controversy he generated before withdrawing his nomination to be in Trump's Cabinet, Gaetz still has strong name ID and is well-liked enough among Florida's GOP base to be a formidable candidate.

• In a hypothetical primary matchup against Attorney General James Uthmeier, Gaetz was favored 39%-21%, according to a recent survey of likely Republican voters by Tony Fabrizio, one of the nation's top pollsters who works for Donald Trump and several GOP clients.

Zoom in: There's already a war of words brewing between Gaetz and Uthmeier supporters over right-wing influencers Andrew and Tristan Tate, the Florida men who recently were allowed to return to the U.S. after facing sex-trafficking charges in Romania.

• Uthmeier on Tuesday announced an investigation into the Tates. Gaetz — who as a member of Congress faced allegations of paying a minor for sex — has criticized Uthmeier's motives.

Reality check: A race against Uthmeier would be no slam dunk for Gaetz. Fabrizio's poll found 40% of GOP voters were undecided.

• "2026 is going to be a dynamic year in Florida politics, for sure," Gaetz told Axios. "I'm humbled that so many Florida Republicans support me. Sometimes the AG itch doesn't go away with one scratch."
• Gaetz has considered running for state attorney general in the past and hasn't ruled it out in 2026. He's also told others he might run for governor.
• A spokesperson for Uthmeier couldn't be reached.

Zoom out: In red-state Florida, the victor of in a GOP primary in a statewide race is typically the odds-on favorite to win in the general election. Registered Republicans in Florida now outnumber Democrats by 1 million.

The intrigue: Florida's 2026 ballot could be full of must-watch races.

• U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds (R) is running for governor and Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis is considering a bid. Her husband, Gov. Ron DeSantis, is in his second four-year term and can't run again under state law.
• Donalds has been endorsed by Trump, but the governor and first lady met with Trump last weekend at the president's International golf club in West Palm Beach to try to curry his favor.
• Uthmeier has never run for statewide office. He was chief of staff for DeSantis, who appointed Uthmeier attorney general two weeks ago to fill the seat vacated by Ashley Moody. DeSantis had appointed Moody to fill Marco Rubio's U.S. Senate seat, which he gave up to become Trump's secretary of state.

Flashback: Gaetz quit Congress and then his bid for the top Justice Department post amid a crush of terrible headlines related to a years-long sex-trafficking investigation that resulted in no charges.

• Gaetz maintained his innocence and characterized a related House Ethics Committee investigation as a witch hunt driven by allies of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), whose ouster Gaetz engineered.

Whether Gaetz runs or not, the investigation into the Tate brothers after they arrived last week in Florida has elevated Uthmeier's profile. The Tates deny wrongdoing and criticized Uthmeier and DeSantis, who denounced them.

• "Ron DeSantis is attacking me because he was worried I would support Byron Donalds over his wife," Andrew Tate posted Tuesday night on X. "They attacked me to prevent me from destroying his wife's political ambitions."

Gaetz chimed in on Wednesday.

• "DeSantis/hisAG are using you to virtue signal against the unrighteous," Gaetz wrote on X.
• "It's all just posturing," Gaetz said. "Hell, Florida even let O.J. Simpson move here, so if you haven't committed any crimes you have little to fear from the Sunshine State."

Fabrizio's poll of 600 likely Republican voters in Florida was conducted via landline and cellphone live callers on Feb. 26-27. It has a +/- error of 4 percentage points.

There will — and must — always be "humans in the loop," tech leaders reassure the world when they publicly address fears that AI will eliminate jobs, make mistakes or destroy society.

Why it matters: Who these humans are, what the loop is and where exactly the people fit into it remain very much up for grabs. How the industry answers those questions will shape what work looks like in the future.

Here are three ways of thinking about what "humans in the loop" can mean.

1. AI assists humans

Chatbots need us to prompt them or give them instructions in order to work. Agents are also assistants, but they require less supervision from humans.

• As agents' abilities grow, keeping humans in the loop ensures "that AI systems make decisions that align with human judgment, ethics, and goals," Fay Kallel, VP of product and design at Intuit Mailchimp, told Axios in an email.
• "By automating tedious tasks, we create space for creative and strategic work," Kelly Moran, VP of engineering, search and AI at Slack, told Axios.
• "Our data shows that AI use leans more toward augmentation (57%) compared to automation (43%)," an Anthropic spokesperson told Axios in an email. "In most cases, AI isn't replacing people but collaborating with them."
• "Humans aren't always rowing the boat — but we're very much steering the ship," Paula Goldman, chief ethical and humane use officer at Salesforce, wrote last year.

2. AI hands over the wheel at key moments

As agents grow more common and more capable, systems are likely to build in checkpoints for human involvement.

• In a demo last month, Operator, OpenAI's ChatGPT-based agent for accomplishing online tasks, made dinner reservations, called an Uber and purchased concert tickets.
• But at key moments, Operator switched into a "takeover mode" to let the human user enter login credentials, payment details or other sensitive information.

3. Humans review AI's final work

Most chatbot users have learned by now that genAI needs a fact-checker.

• Bots can make things up, misinterpret data or make incorrect recommendations. Even as models get smarter, humans are often still required to audit an AI's work.
• "By design, systems must be built with checkpoints for human experience and judgment, allowing for verification when appropriate without losing the efficiency gains AI provides," Allan Thygesen, CEO at Docusign, said in an email.
• Because of "the probabilistic nature of the technology," George C. Lee, co-head of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute, told Axios that the company uses human "checkers," especially for sensitive workflows.

Reality check: The idea of keeping "humans in the loop" assumes that humans are better at making decisions than AI, which isn't always true.

• "We're accustomed to trusting humans," Stefano Soatto, professor of computer science at UCLA and VP at Amazon Web Services, told Axios — but "not all humans are trustworthy."

Between the lines: The ability to provide oversight and to understand what tasks should be handed off to AI are the skills that human workers will need in the future, says Kelly Monahan, managing director of the research institute at Upwork.

• As a freelance platform, Upwork is able to see trends of how work is shifting faster than you might see at a job level.
• Monahan told Axios that Upwork's clients are searching for more "high-value work" and that includes people with "the ability to read context, to be creative, to be empathetic, all those unique qualities that actually make us intelligent."

The intrigue: Most modern generative AI systems have been trained, in part, by humans.

• Humans select, clean and label data to fine-tune AI models to teach them how to answer questions or understand images.
• Humans decide what they want the model to achieve and what safeguards or values an AI model has.
• OpenAI also uses humans to score AI answers, which is a key way models get better. This is known as reinforcement learning with human feedback.

Zoom in: It's becoming increasingly unclear when human oversight is necessary, when AI should take the lead and what risks we're willing to take along the way.

• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman explored this dilemma from a military AI perspective at a Brookings Center discussion last year.
• "I've never heard anyone advocate that AI should get to make decisions about launching nuclear weapons. I've also never heard anyone advocate that AI shouldn't be used to intercept inbound missiles where you have to act really quickly," Altman told the moderators.
• "And then there's this whole area in the middle...If there's like a plane coming to bomb South Korea and you don't have time to have a human in the loop, and you can make an intercept decision or not, but you're very sure that it's happening, like how sure do you have to be? What would be the expected impact on human life? Where do you draw the line in that gray area?"
• "I hope this is never an OpenAI decision," Altman added.

What we're watching: As AI's abilities improve and the gap between human and machine intelligence narrows, today's "humans in the loop" promise could end up as just a placeholder.

Senate Democrats are indicating they won't tank a short-term government funding package, barring any eleventh-hour GOP surprises.

Why it matters: A truly clean funding bill will make life easier for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).

• House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), with President Trump's help, is steadily building House GOP support to extend last year's spending levels through Sept. 30 without any significant policy changes.
• Schumer has been clear that he wants to avoid a shutdown. Even talking about wanting one is a big no-no.

If the GOP can get a clean continuing resolution (CR) through the House, and avoid multiple GOP defectors in the Senate, it should be doable to get enough Dems on board to reach 60 votes, multiple sources tell Axios.

• "Republicans are responsible for funding the government. ... They haven't engaged in discussions with us yet, either me" or House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), Schumer said on Tuesday. "So we have to wait to see what their plan is."

The big picture: The math leaves Schumer with lots of breathing room to let other irate Democrats express their fury with Trump.

• "I don't want to see another year of them dismembering the government," Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) told Axios on Wednesday when asked whether he would support a stopgap package.
• "It's not something that I want to see," Sen. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) said on Wednesday.

Between the lines: Appropriators on Wednesday made clear that they were pursuing a plan B in case a yearlong CR doesn't survive the House or the Senate.

• Appropriators from both sides of the aisle said they were close on a top-line agreement on fiscal year 2025 funding levels.
• Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) has called for Congress to pass a shorter stopgap bill that would allow lawmakers to pass individual spending bills.
• "We cannot stand by and accept a yearlong power grab CR that would help Elon take a chainsaw to programs that families rely on and agencies that keep our communities safe," Murray said this week.

What we're watching: The heaviest lift is on Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), who are navigating slim majorities.

• That task looked simpler Wednesday after House Freedom Caucus members met with Trump at the White House and gave the green light.
• "We're ready to advance the ball next week," Rep Chip Roy (R-Texas) said.

Speaker Mike Johnson is planning an "expeditious vote of censure" for Rep. Al Green tomorrow morning and is calling on Democrats to join Republicans in punishing the Texas Democrat for heckling President Trump on Tuesday.

Why it matters: Republicans want to draw maximum attention to the Democratic protests during Trump's Joint Address to Congress.

• "Any Democrat who is concerned about regaining the trust and respect of the American people should join House Republicans in this effort," Johnson said in a statement to Axios.

Driving the news: GOP leaders have settled on Rep. Dan Newhouse's (R-Wash.) two-page censure resolution, as the best way to admonish Green.

• They are planning a vote Thursday morning, which will likely be the last one of the week.
• "Rep. Al Green's shameful and egregious behavior during President Trump's Joint Address disgraced the institution of Congress and the constituents he serves," Johnson said.
• "Despite my repeated warnings, he refused to cease his antics and I was forced to remove him from the chamber. He deliberately violated House rules, and an expeditious vote of censure is an appropriate remedy."

The other side: Green, who has said he plans to try to impeach Trump, doesn't seem too fazed by the potential punishment.

• He told Axios he will not fight the censure effort.
• "If I broke the rules, then I have to be prepared to suffer the consequences. You don't break the rules and then demand that you be treated as though nothing ever happened," Green said.

History is set to be made on the Moon again this week, with Intuitive Machines' IM-2 mission Nova-C class lunar lander Athena scheduled to land there at 12:32pm ET on Thursday.

The big picture: Intuitive Machines has partnered with Lunar Outpost to roll out the first commercial rover on the Moon and with Finnish multinational tech firm Nokia to deliver the first cellular network on Earth's only natural satellite.

• This mission comes after the Cedar Park, Texas-based company Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost lunar lander achieved on Sunday the first successful commercial Moon landing.

State of play: Intuitive Machines' second lunar mission is part of NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services ("CLPS") initiative, which allows the agency to hire private space companies to deliver its lunar instruments.

• Athena is "slated to land in Mons Mouton, a lunar plateau near the Moon's South Pole, as part of NASA's CLPS (Commercial Lunar Payload Services) initiative and Artemis campaign to establish a long-term lunar presence," per a NASA statement.
• It will be carrying "NASA technology demonstrations and science investigations," the space agency added.

What to expect: "Two device modules make up additional components of Nokia's LSCS, and they have been installed in two lunar mobility vehicles: Intuitive Machines' Micro-Nova Hopper and Lunar Outpost's Mobile Autonomous Prospecting Platform (MAPP) rover," per a Nokia statement.

• "Upon landing on the Moon, the two vehicles are designed to deploy on the lunar surface where they would immediately use the Nokia device modules to establish connections to the network on Athena."
• The rover will deploy Nokia's 4G/LTE antennas to establish connection on the Moon.

🧵1/2: Flight controllers confirmed that Athena completed lunar orbit insertion with enough accuracy to forego the IM-2 mission's optional lunar correction maneuver.

Athena continues to be in excellent health, completing lunar orbits every two hours, waiting for the sun to rise… pic.twitter.com/dPt2bXLGMX

— Intuitive Machines (@Int_Machines) March 4, 2025

Zoom in: The Lunar Outpost MAPP is on a mission to explore the uncharted territory of the Moon's South Pole — which the Arvada, Colorado-headquartered firm noted in a statement is "a region critical to future lunar infrastructure and sustainability."

• It will also "execute the first sale of space resources with NASA" through the collection of regolith, rock and dust from the Moon's surface and "gather critical data to shape the future of lunar exploration," Lunar Outpost added.
• Meanwhile, Massachusetts Institute of Technology's AstroAnt robotic swarm prototype will "wheel around MAPP's roof to take temperature readings and monitor its operation," according to Lunar Outpost.

The intrigue: Lego announced on Friday it was "teaming up" with Lunar Outpost "over a shared love of space, the exploration of space and building ridiculously cool things," telling fans to watch out for "a future product and more than a few surprises along the way."

• The Danish toymaker also published a cryptic post on the matter on Facebook:

• When asked for comment on the partnership, a spokesperson for Lunar Outpost said in an emailed statement on Wednesday night "yes, we're partnered with LEGO, but there's not much more I can share quite yet... More to come!"

How to watch: The mission landing will be live-streamed on Intuitive Machines' YouTube channel and on the NASA+ streaming service on Thursday.

• Broadcast is due to begin at 11:30am ET.

What's next: The mission team will "begin transmitting the first images, data, and discoveries from the Moon's surface over Nokia's LSCS using a device module integrated in the MAPP rover," per a Lunar Outpost statement.

Go deeper: The race to tap the Moon's immense value

The planet had its third-warmest February on record, following a surprise record-hot January, new data shows.

Why it matters: This is the first month not to be the first or second-hottest on record since June 2023. It may indicate some slight cooling relative to the not fully explained, record-shattering heat of the past two years.

• Global sea ice extent hit a benchmark low, however.

Zoom in: The new data, from Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service, shows the planet had a far cooler February compared to January, with the U.S. and Canada standing out as the most unusually cold regions.

• February had a global average surface temperature that was 1.59°C (2.86°F) above the preindustrial average.
• This made it the 19th month out of the past 20 to exceed 1.5°C above the preindustrial level.

The 1.5°C threshold is an aspirational temperature target under the Paris Climate Agreement.

• Studies have shown that should the climate warm beyond it, which is almost certain at this point, the odds of potentially disastrous climate change effects become more likely.

The intrigue: The persistent record heat which began in 2023 and may only now be letting up slightly, hasn't been fully explained by known factors in addition to human emissions of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels.

• The other factors that may have contributed extra warming range from changes in marine shipping fuels to El Niño and La Niña and shifts in maritime cloud cover.
• Climate scientists are still studying the record warmth of the past two-plus years, with some buying into the possibility that global warming may have accelerated, at least in the short term.

Zoom out: The Copernicus report is based on reanalysis data, specifically the ERA5 data set.

• Reanalysis involves taking billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world to accurately estimate in near real-time global weather and climate conditions.
• Global sea ice extent, which combines the sea ice extents of the Arctic and Antarctic, set a new minimum for the month.

In the Arctic, where sea ice is nearing its seasonal maximum, the ice extent was its lowest on record for the third month in a row.

• Antarctic sea ice may have hit its lowest seasonal minimum extent on record, but that won't fully be known for another month, Copernicus stated.

Yes, but: February's dip in temperatures could be temporary, with more records resuming in coming months.

What they're saying: "The current record low global sea ice extent revealed by the Copernicus analysis is of serious concern as it reflects major changes in both the Arctic and Antarctic," said Simon Josey of the UK's National Oceanography Center, in a statement.

Los Angeles County is suing Southern California Edison over the Eaton Fire, which killed 17 people in January.

The big picture: The cause of the blaze that was one of California's most destructive wildfires on record remains under investigation, but LA County alleges in a lawsuit there's "clear evidence" from images and witness statements that SCE's equipment was responsible for it.

• It's one of several lawsuits the utility faces over the Eaton Fire. The cities of Pasadena and Sierra Madre also announced suits against SCE.

Zoom in: The wildfire that was one of several to erupt on Jan. 7 during dry, windy conditions destroyed 9,414 properties and damaged 1,074 others as it burned for 24 days over 14,021 acres in the Altadena and Pasadena, Calif., areas, injuring nine firefighters, per Cal Fire.

• LA County said in a statement it filed the lawsuit to "recover costs and damages sustained" from the blaze, which it's estimated "will total at least hundreds of millions of dollars."
• The lawsuit alleges that the Eaton Fire has "massively impacted the County's natural resources, harmed the environment and wildlife, and threatened public health," the statement added.

What they're saying: "Our hearts are with the communities affected by the wildfires in Southern California," said Brian Leventhal, a spokesperson for SCE.

• "We are reviewing the lawsuits that were recently filed and we'll address them through the appropriate legal process."

Read the complaint, via DocumentCloud:

More from Axios...

• Climate change made LA fires far more likely, study says
• In photos: L.A. County burns as Eaton Fire explodes in Southern California
• L.A. wildfires destroy Black community birthed from Civil Rights era

Google's Cloud division is taking a major step toward making operational recent gains in AI weather forecast models and marketing them for the energy industry, the company tells Axios exclusively.

Why it matters: This is a prominent example of a tech company that invested in developing AI models to make the transition from research to applications.

• AI weather models are in their infancy but have demonstrated remarkable accuracy. Those advances have come as certain extreme weather events are becoming more intense and frequent due to human-caused global warming.

Driving the news: Google Cloud is marketing two AI forecast models to its enterprise cloud customers.

• Both were developed by Google DeepMind, and used historical weather data to make predictions about future conditions out to 10 to 15 days in advance.
• One model, previously known as GenCast, bested some of the world's most accurate modeling systems.
• It generates probabilistic projections to allow companies to plan for high impact, low probability scenarios as well as the most likely forecast outcomes.

The big picture: The tech industry has largely led the charge on AI modeling given its expertise working with large datasets and access to significant computer resources.

• Google, Microsoft and Nvidia have each pursued the development of AI weather models despite none of them being a strictly weather and climate company.
• However, Google is now out in front when it comes to bringing its models to market.

The intrigue: Google Cloud is bringing two models, branded as "WeatherNext," to its Cloud enterprise customers to try to help them plan for extreme weather.

• The energy industry is a key customer given companies' needs to plan for changing weather conditions, Pete Battaglia, director of research for sustainability at Google DeepMind, told Axios in an interview.
• Energy companies, Google hopes, will find the new tools useful for everything from planning for supply and demand swings to anticipating the need to tap into battery storage resources.
• Google also hopes it can lead them to make decisions on where to build renewable energy infrastructure.

Google's Cloud division also sees future demand for its new weather models coming from the logistics and retail sectors, as companies seek to optimize shipping routes and stores try to stock their shelves with weather-appropriate gear.

Zoom out: Google made its announcement in the run-up to the annual CERAWeek energy conference in Houston, which features top oil and gas CEOs and representatives of the renewables sector as well as utilities.

• The announcement also comes as NOAA, the nation's top weather and climate agency goes through rounds of cuts and an uncertain future.
• Most private sector weather providers obtain original weather data for free from NOAA and other global centers, then use it to feed into their proprietary weather models.
• AI weather models work differently, since they are trained on historical weather data and don't involve computationally-intensive physics equations, enabling them to be run far faster and cheaper than traditional models.

NOAA's approach to AI weather modeling is still developing, and Battaglia said he is open to collaboration opportunities between the agency and GoogleDeepMind.

The bottom line: AI weather models are going mainstream, tailored to specific use cases. For now, they are supplementing, rather than replacing, traditional physics-based models.

The Trump administration is easing the newly imposed tariffs on North American allies, with an auto sector carve-out that exempts the industry from import taxes for one month.

Why it matters: It offers temporary relief to a business that heavily relies on free trade with Canada and Mexico.

• But the announcement is also the latest bump in the tariff rollercoaster ride that is hamstringing some business activity and stoking inflation fears.

What they're saying: "At the request of the companies associated with USMCA, the president is giving them an exemption for one month so they are not at an economic disadvantage," press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a White House press briefing on Wednesday.

• Leavitt was referring to the United States Mexico Canada Agreement, the trade deal negotiated in Trump's first term. She said the requests came from top executives at Ford, Stellantis and General Motors.

Even with that exclusion, the 25% Canada and Mexico tariffs still cover a huge portion of other imports. The 20% tariff on Chinese imports remains unchanged.

• The uncertainty about Trump administration policy leaves some companies in a bind. Executives don't know whether or when imports taxes will be called off.

What to watch: Speaking to reporters, Leavitt doubled down on tariffs as central to Trump's economic policy, signaling that automakers should make long-term plans to adjust.

• "The reciprocal tariffs will go into effect on April 2, and he feels strongly about that no matter what — no exception, exemption," Leavitt said.
• Leavitt said the president told the automakers "to start investing, start moving — shift production here to the United States of America where they will pay no tariff."

Between the lines: The White House has tried to distinguish between the various sets of tariff proposals — and how a trade spat might be resolved.

• A White House official said the Canada, Mexico and China tariffs are about controlling the flow of fentanyl in the U.S., as opposed to the lumber tariff investigation that stems from national security concerns.

Yes, but: The temporary tariff relief comes even as Trump says he is dissatisfied with Canada and Mexico's actions on fentanyl.

• "I told him that many people have died from Fentanyl that came through the Borders of Canada and Mexico, and nothing has convinced me that it has stopped," Trump posted on Truth Social, describing a conversation with Canadian leader Justin Trudeau.
• "He said that it's gotten better, but I said, 'That's not good enough.'"

The intrigue: The volatility of Trump policy is on full display in the stock market, which has moved in lockstep with tariff news in recent days. Stocks turned positive after reports of the tariff reprieve.

• Shares in the three automakers rallied sharply.

The bottom line: As recent days make clear, it's not just the actual tariffs that pose a risk to the economy, but the uncertainty of their implementation.

• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the sectors spared from these tariffs might be roped into a broader tariff announcement in early April.

Editor's Note: This story has been updated with additional White House comments.