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Today β€” 4 March 2025Axios News

Pakistan detained alleged plotter of Abbey Gate bombing based on CIA intel

4 March 2025 at 19:43

Pakistan recently acted on CIA intelligence and detained a senior ISIS commander who the U.S. claims plotted the deadly Abbey Gate bombing during the U.S. evacuation from Afghanistan in 2021, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the issue. President Trump revealed the arrest in his address to Congress on Tuesday night.

Why it matters: Mohammad Sharifullah, one of the leaders of an ISIS branch in Afghanistan and Pakistan, is believed to have devised and coordinated the attack that killed 13 U.S. service members and about 170 Afghan citizens, one official said.


  • One U.S. official with direct knowledge said Sharifullah, who is also known as "Jafar," is in the process of being extradited to the U.S. from Pakistan after being detained by the Pakistani Intelligence Service.
  • He is expected to arrive in the U.S. on Wednesday and an indictment against him is expected to be unsealed, the U.S. official said.
  • A second U.S. official claimed Sharifullah is "the mastermind" behind the attack that took place outside Kabul's international airport on Aug. 26, 2021, and that he planned and oversaw the execution of the bombing.
  • "Because of his role, he has been a high value target of the U.S. intelligence community for several years," the official said.

Flashback: In April 2023, the Taliban killed another senior ISIS-K leader who the U.S. intelligence community believes authorized the Abbey Gate attack. The Biden administration announced his death but didn't provide details about his identity.

Behind the scenes: After CIA director John Ratcliffe was confirmed by Congress in January, President Trump instructed him to prioritize capturing the perpetrators of the Abbey Gate attack, the U.S. officials said.

  • In his first days in office, Ratcliffe told CIA counterterrorism officials to make it a top priority for the agency.
  • One U.S. official said the CIA director on his second day in office raised the issue during his first call with his Pakistani counterpart, Lt. Gen. Asim Malik. Ratcliffe reiterated this message during his meeting with the Pakistani spy chief on the sidelines of the Munich security conference in mid-February.
  • A spokesperson for the Pakistani embassy in D.C. did not provide a comment prior to publication.

The CIA has been monitoring Sharifullah for some time but in recent days it received specific intelligence about his location. The CIA provided the information to the Pakistani intelligence agency, which sent an elite unit that captured him near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, the officials said.

  • Ten days ago, after the U.S. was notified of Sharifullah's capture, Ratcliffe and FBI Director Kash Patel held a call with the Pakistani intelligence chief from CIA headquarters in Langley.
  • Since then the CIA, the Department of Justice and the FBI worked together on his extradition, with Ratcliffe, Patel and Attorney General Pam Bondi personally involved, one of the U.S. officials said.

The big picture: The cooperation between the CIA and the Pakistani Intelligence Services over Sharifullah's capture happened after several years of strained relations between U.S. and Pakistani intelligence services.

  • A U.S. official said these tensions negatively affected counterterrorism operations with the Pakistanis.
  • Both sources said the U.S. sees Sharifullah's detainment as a signal that the Pakistanis want to reengage with the Trump administration on intelligence and counterterrorism.

House Freedom Caucus threatens Trump hecklers with censure, arrest

4 March 2025 at 17:21

The right-wing House Freedom Caucus on Tuesday issued a threat to try to censure any Democratic lawmakers or guests who disrupt President Trump's speech to Congress.

Why it matters: The declaration is in response to Axios' reporting that some Democrats have considered bringing noisemakers or walking out of the speech to display their opposition to the Republican president.


  • There is considerable internal division within the Democratic caucus about whether to use more disruptive tactics or stick to traditional, silent protest.
  • House Democratic leadership has urged its members not to bring props into the House chamber.

What they're saying: "The President's address to tonight's joint session of Congress is a constitutional obligation β€” not a sideshow for Democrats to use noisemakers, make threats, throw things or otherwise disrupt," the Freedom Caucus' board said in a statement.

  • "Our colleagues are on notice that the heckler's veto will not be tolerated. You will be censured," they continued.
  • The right-wing group also warned that they "expect the Sergeant at Arms and Capitol Police to take appropriate action against any Members of Congress or other persons violating House rules."

Between the lines: Heckling and disruptions have become increasingly common during State of the Union addresses and other speeches to joint sessions of Congress in recent years.

  • Rep. Joe Wilson's (R-S.C.) shouting "you lie" during then-President Obama's address in 2009 was considered a shocking breach of decorum at the time.
  • Biden was repeatedly heckled by Republicans at his State of the Union addresses, with one Republican guest even getting arrested in 2024 for yelling at Biden about the 2021 Kabul airport bombing.
  • Reps. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) β€” both members of the Freedom Caucus at the time β€” chanted "build the wall" during Biden's address in 2022.

Automakers tap COVID playbook to cope with Trump tariffs

4 March 2025 at 15:02

After weeks of stalled decision-making, the global trade war automakers were hoping to avoid is now here, providing a measure of clarity that had been missing.

  • While significant disruption is inevitable, at least there's a playbook from the last big shock to hit the industry: COVID.

Why it matters: Though unwelcome, supply chain upheavals are nothing new for carmakers, who have built a culture of resiliency while dealing with everything from tsunamis and fires to labor strikes and safety recalls β€” not to mention the global health crisis.


  • What's different this time, however, is that the industry is on far shakier ground.
  • The trade war is hitting at the same time they're juggling sweeping technological change, regulatory pressures and powerful Chinese competition.

Driving the news: President Trump's promised 25% tariffs on imported goods from Canada and Mexico took effect early Tuesday, along with additional levies on China.

  • Canada and China immediately took retaliatory steps and Mexico signaled it, too, will respond with its own measures.
  • "This isn't hypothetical. All automakers will be impacted by these tariffs on Canada and Mexico," John Bozzella, president and CEO of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, said in statement.

The fallout will be almost immediate, with sharply higher vehicle prices and limited availability of certain models, industry experts say.

  • S&P Global Mobility sees potential for 20,000 fewer vehicles produced per day β€” about 30 percent of North American production.
  • Automakers have been stockpiling engines and components in U.S. warehouses for weeks, but some assembly plants are likely to shut down within days, said S&P Global Mobility analyst Stephanie Brinley, speaking at an Automotive Press Association event Tuesday.
  • "At best, we're probably looking at maybe a week's worth of supply of (parts) inventory," she said.
  • "And as you know, if you're building a vehicle, it's going to be stopped on one part (shortage). And we don't know what that magic part is yet."

Flashback: During the pandemic, automakers faced a shortage of semiconductors, which led them to prioritize building high-profit models like pickup trucks and SUVs while idling other plants altogether.

  • Some unfinished vehicles were parked in storage until chips could be installed.

Between the lines: The North American auto industry is deeply integrated, with finished vehicles and auto parts flowing freely across borders.

  • Under the new tariff regime, levies will be added each time unfinished vehicles cross the border, creating layers of increased costs.
  • Plus, new tariffs are coming soon on steel and aluminum, which will add to those higher costs.

Suppliers are already pushing back, telling carmakers they can't absorb the cost of increased tariffs.

  • They're demanding higher prices, and seeking to invoke "force majeure" clauses in existing contracts that release them from obligations due to unforeseen events.
  • As during COVID, automakers are likely to subsidize suppliers' high production costs to ensure they can ramp up again quickly, if and when the tariffs are lifted.

The intrigue: What you likely won't see is factories picking up and moving from Canada and Mexico to the U.S.

  • "OEMs and suppliers will only invest capital and resources if there's long term stability in this issue, and it's not clear we have that quite yet," Brinley said.

The bottom line: The full impact of the tariffs will depend on how long they're in place.

Trump speech repeatedly rocked by Democratic disruptions

4 March 2025 at 19:35

Even before President Trump took the podium to address a joint session of Congress on Tuesday, Democrats began disrupting the proceedings. Within minutes, a lawmaker was escorted out of the chamber.

Why it matters: The Democratic protests from inside the chamber represent an unprecedented level of coordination that reflects the immense grassroots pressure the party is facing to mount a resistance to Trump.


What happened: As Trump walked down the aisle, Rep. Melanie Stansbury (D-N.M.), the ranking member of the House's DOGE subcommittee, held up a sign reading "This is NOT Normal."

  • Rep. Lance Gooden (R-Texas) reached across the aisle, grabbed Stansbury's sign and yanked it out of her hand. Stansbury later fundraised off the moment.
  • Soon after, dozens of Democrats held up signs reading "SAVE MEDICAID," "MUSK STEALS" and "PROTECT VETERANS" β€” which, when flipped around, also said "FALSE" on the back.
  • Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) held up a whiteboard on which she wrote various messages, including: "Cut Elon, NOT Social Security."

Between the lines: The use of signs came despite Democratic leadership urging its members ahead of the speech not to use props or use any tactics that would make them the story.

  • Many members of the Democrats' more establishment wing opposed the use of disruptive tactics and opted for silent forms of protest such as outfit coordination and refusal to clap.
  • But progressives argued to colleagues privately, and told Axios, that their constituents were demanding to see more vocal resistance to Trump by the party's elected officials.

Zoom in: As Trump began speaking, even more raucous disruptions began. Rep. Al Green (D-Texas), one of Trump's fiercest critics in Congress who plans to try to impeach him, stood up and shouted, "Mr. President, you don't have a mandate."

  • Republicans shouted back in an attempt to drown him out. After a back and forth in which Green refused to stop heckling, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) ordered the House sergeant-at-arms to escort him out.
  • Other Democrats repeatedly peppered Trump with heckling throughout his speech, often shouting, "Those are lies!"
  • As Trump spoke about law enforcement, several

Several House Democrats β€” including Reps. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.), Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), Maxine Dexter (D-Ore.), Andrea Salinas (D-Ore.), LaMonica McIver (D-N.J.) Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-Calif.) β€” walked out of the speech several minutes later.

  • Crockett, Salinas and Dexter revealed shirts that read "RESIST" on the back. Frost's shirt said "NO KINGS LIVE HERE," and Kamlager-Dove's said "PRESIDENT MUSK."
  • Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-Ill.), who did not walk out of the speech, wore a shirt that said "NO KING. NO COUP."

What they're saying: After he was ejected, Green told reporters the mandate he was referencing was a mandate to cut Medicaid and other government programs.

  • "It's worth it to let people know that there are some people who are going to stand up," the Texas Democrat said of his ejection.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details.

CDC sends disease experts to Texas as measles cases rise

4 March 2025 at 13:20

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Tuesday sent federal disease experts to assist in the response to the intensifying measles outbreak in Texas

Why it matters: The move indicates that HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr and the Trump administration are starting to prioritize the response after Kennedy downplayed the threat last week, describing such outbreaks as "not unusual."


Driving the news: The CDC announced on X that it is partnering with the Texas Department of State Health Services to respond to the measles outbreak.

  • The partnership, known as an Epi-Aid, is a rapid-response effort in which the CDC's Epidemic Intelligence Service provides local officials onsite support for one to three weeks.

Zoom in: At least 159 measles cases have been confirmed, with 22 of the patients been hospitalized, state officials said Tuesday.

  • Texas announced last week that a school-age child who was not vaccinated and had no underlying health conditions was the first death in the outbreak.

What they're saying: "The measles outbreak in Texas is a call to action for all of us to reaffirm our commitment to public health," Kennedy said.

  • "By working together β€” parents, healthcare providers, community leaders, and government officials, we can prevent future outbreaks and protect the health of our nation," he added.
  • Kennedy on Tuesday also claimed on Fox News Channel Tuesday that doctors treated "over 108 patients" and are "getting very, very good results" from unconventional treatments, including the steroid budesonide and cod liver oil.
  • The steroid is more commonly used to treat asthma, mild to moderate active Crohn's disease, an inflammatory bowel disease, and other inflammatory conditions.

Zoom out: Kennedy, a leading vaccine critic, wrote in an Fox News Digital on Sunday that the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine "is crucial to avoiding potentially deadly disease."

  • But Kennedy emphasized that the decision to vaccinate is "a personal one."

Go deeper: RFK Jr. urges people to get vaccinated amid deadly Texas outbreak

GOP hunts for Democratic votes to avoid government shutdown

4 March 2025 at 16:02

House Republicans are planning to pressure vulnerable Democrats to help them pass a short-term funding bill next week.

Why it matters: GOP leaders are talking big about passing a government funding bill with just Republican votes, probably in the House but definitely in the Senate.


  • "I think the 13 Democrats sitting in Trump seats ought to think twice about shutting down Trump's government," Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), chair of the House Appropriations Committee, told reporters.
  • Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) will be on the hunt for at least eight Democrats to overcome a filibuster.

Driving the news: House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has decided to try to pass a "clean continuing resolution," which would fund the government through Sept. 30 without any significant policy changes. He says President Trump is on board.

  • Trump and Johnson are pulling out all the stops to convince potential holdout Republicans to support a funding bill this time.
  • "But I think once people understand the necessity of it, I think they'll get on board and we'll pass it," Johnson told reporters Tuesday.

The goal is to drive up the number of Republican votes to help insulate themselves from blame if the government does shut down. The higher the number of GOP "yeas," the more insurance they think they are buying.

  • Elon Musk will pay a visit to the Capitol on Wednesday to meet with House Republicans. Trump will have a separate meeting with House Freedom Caucus members.

Zoom in: Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and Rep Andy Harris (R-Md.), the HFC chair, indicated to Johnson and Thune on Tuesday afternoon they would lay down their arms on this spending fight.

  • "We stand ready to work with you to ensure the government remains open in a way that preserves President Trump's options to root out wasteful government spending and fully continues DOGE's important work," they wrote.

The bottom line: The conservatives added a warning, hinting they would oppose any legislation that tried to undermine Musk's and Trump's DOGE efforts.

  • "We will not support a government funding package that would be weaponized against President Trump at the very moment he is seeking to make good on the promises he made to the American people."

Border crossings plunge to lowest levels in decades: New data

4 March 2025 at 12:43
Data: U.S. Customs and Border Protection; Chart: Axios Visuals

The number of migrants illegally crossing the U.S. southern border plummeted in February to the lowest level seen in decades, according to internal data obtained by Axios.

The big picture: Crossings had been trending down for several months, driven by policies on either side of the U.S.-Mexico border, experts say. But the numbers have plunged since Trump began implementing β€” and broadcasting β€” his sweeping immigration crackdown.


  • "The Invasion of our Country is OVER," Trump wrote in a Saturday Truth Social post celebrating the decline.
  • The drop represents an overlap of Trump's sweeping changes in policy and rhetoric with trends that began months before he returned to the White House, said the Migration Policy Institute's Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh, who closely tracks border data.

Driving the news: Border Patrol recorded around 8,300 apprehensions of migrants who crossed the border unlawfully between ports of entry in February, according to the data obtained by Axios.

  • In January, according to CBP statistics, Border Patrol recorded some 29,100 encounters, down from around 47,300 the month prior.
  • The February numbers are the lowest recorded since FY 2000, the earliest year of monthly data publicly accessible.
  • There were over 130,000 encounters in both February 2023 and 2024.

Context: Illegal border crossings spiked at the end of 2023 but started to slope downward in 2024 after the Biden administration implemented new restrictions and Mexican officials ramped up enforcement.

  • Mexico's actions were a "really key" reason for the downward trend "that often goes a bit under the radar," said Putzel-Kavanaugh.
  • Former President Biden in June signed an executive order that took aggressive action to curtail border surges by implementing asylum restrictions in periods where border encounters were high.
  • That triggered a "huge dip" in the number of migrants arriving irregularly between ports of entry, Putzel-Kavanaugh said.

The Trump administration's long-promised crackdown started on day one of his term. It sent shockwaves throughout the immigration system.

  • Officials shut down an app that facilitated the legal entry of some migrants at the border, used military aircraft for deportations and loudly publicized a plan for mass deportations.
  • The CBP One mobile application going dark left thousands stranded in Mexico, with their appointments for asylum screenings canceled.
  • "The calculus was really starting to shift [prior to the app being shut down] where people were waiting in Mexico to get those appointments and be able to be processed that way, because there would still be access to humanitarian protection," Putzel-Kavanaugh said.

Zoom in: Migrants are likely in a "wait-and-see" moment today, Putzel-Kavanaugh said, as they make sense of how to navigate "many different layered policies" that make it "really hard to know if there's really access to humanitarian protection."

  • There are also a number of pending legal challenges to the Trump administration's policies, including its efforts to fast-track deportations.

What to watch: Border crossings also fell sharply when Trump took office in 2017, but he faced his own border crisis when they spiked in 2019 β€” though not to the levels seen under Biden.

  • It's unclear if the current ultra-low levels will be sustainable, says Putzel-Kavanaugh, noting border numbers are "volatile" and fluctuate in the context of an "ever-changing environment."
  • And with Mexico playing a key role in keeping border numbers low, it's uncertain how tumultuous cross-border diplomacy β€” and a burgeoning trade war β€” will play into migration enforcement conversations.

Go deeper: Scoop: Trump's immigration arrests appear to lag Biden's

How Trump's tariffs will impact everyday Americans

Data:Β Trade Partnership Worldwide; Note: Based on January-November 2024 trade data. Map: Alex Fitzpatrick/Axios

President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs Tuesday on America's largest trading partners, triggering a global trade war that promises to affect the wallets of everyday Americans.

Why it matters: After running β€” and winning β€” on a promise to curb inflation, Trump's trade war threatens to raise prices for everything from food and clothes to cars and computers.


  • Some estimates suggest just Tuesday's tariffs alone could cost the average U.S. household $830 a year β€” and that's before you factor in the cost of anticipated retaliatory tariffs from Canada, China and Mexico.

Tariffs on the top U.S. import partners

Note: Countries are arranged by share of total trade; Data: U.S. Census Bureau; Chart: Axios Visuals

Zoom out: More than 40% of all U.S. imports come from Mexico, Canada and China β€” over $1.3 trillion worth in 2024 alone, per Census data.

  • The tariffs will affect big-ticket items like machinery and cars, but also consumer staples β€” everything from beer (more than 80% of U.S. imports come from Mexico) to oats (almost all U.S. imports come from Canada).

Tariffs as a regressive tax

Data: Progressive Policy Institute analysis of U.S. International Trade Commission data;Β Note: Tariff rates may vary by country; Chart: Axios Visuals

Zoom in: Tariffs are generally regressive, in that they more heavily affect lower-income people who spend a greater share of their resources on goods, particularly necessities like food and fuel.

  • As data from the Progressive Policy Institute shows, even before Trump's new levies this week, the existing U.S. tariff system already charged much higher rates for low-cost products than their luxury counterparts.

The China trade deficit

Data: USA Trade; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

Between the lines: Tariffs, especially on China, do move the needle on trade a little, but over time it tends to rebound.

  • The trade deficit with China has been more than $200 billion for 20 years now, and Chinese retaliatory tariffs will offset some of the benefit of the new duties Trump assessed.

Fentanyl realities

Data: U.S. Customs and Border Protection; Chart: Axios Visuals

The intrigue: In assessing tariffs on Canada and Mexico in particular, Trump cited the flow of fentanyl across both borders.

Yes, but: As U.S. Customs and Border Protection data shows, over the last 40 months, fentanyl volume that's trafficked through Mexico is almost 1,000x the amount coming through Canada.

  • In January 2025 alone, CBP stopped almost half a ton of fentanyl at the Mexican border β€” and about half an ounce at the Canadian border.

The next tariffs

Data: Axios research; Note: The White House has not specified which of the above tariffs (if any) will be included in the reciprocal tariff order on April 2 ; Chart: Axios Visuals

What to watch: The tariffs are a long way from over β€” the White House has made clear more are coming, and they'll stack up on top of each other.

  • Steel and aluminum tariffs come in next week, which will particularly impact automakers and beverage companies, among others.
  • Reciprocal tariffs on April 2 could affect dozens of countries, with as-yet unknown impacts on almost everything the country imports.

Go deeper: Tariff worries, Trump cuts signal emerging economic growth risks

Zelensky expresses regret for Oval Office spat with Trump

4 March 2025 at 08:15

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday expressed regret for his Oval Office spat with President Trump last week and said he's ready to sign a U.S. minerals deal "any time and in any convenient format."

Why it matters: Zelensky's statement, a day after Trump suspended all U.S. military aid to Ukraine, was an attempt to adhere to the conditions laid out by the White House for ending the diplomatic crisis.


  • Trump officials had demanded that Zelensky publicly apologize and sign the minerals deal in order to get the U.S.-Ukraine relationship back on track.
  • Zelensky previously said he did not see any reason to apologize after the stunning confrontation with Trump and Vice President Vance in the Oval Office last Friday.

What they're saying: "Our meeting in Washington, at the White House on Friday, did not go the way it was supposed to be. It is regrettable that it happened this way. It is time to make things right. We would like future cooperation and communication to be constructive," Zelensky wrote on X.

  • He reiterated that Ukraine is committed to ending the war and is "ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer."
  • "Nobody wants peace more than Ukrainians. My team and I stand ready to work under President Trump's strong leadership to get a peace that lasts. We are ready to work fast to end the war," Zelensky added.
  • Zelensky also wrote that Ukrainians "really value how much America has done to help Ukraine maintain its sovereignty and independence," and explicitly thanked Trump for providing Ukraine with Javelin weapon systems in his first term.

What to watch: As part of the "first stages" of a deal, Zelensky proposed moving forward with the release of prisoners by both Russia and Ukraine, a "truce in the sky" that will freeze missile and long-range drone attacks, and no strikes on energy and other civilian infrastructure. He said the initial deal could also include a "truce in the sea."

  • "Then we want to move very fast through all next stages and to work with the U.S. to agree a strong final deal," Zelensky said.
  • On the minerals deal, Zelensky said he sees the agreement "as a step toward greater security and solid security guarantees, and I truly hope it will work effectively."

State Department unfreezes $95 million in aid for the Lebanese army

4 March 2025 at 06:59

The State Department is waiving $95 million in military assistance to the Lebanese armed forces amid the Trump administration's nearly 90-day foreign-aid freeze, two U.S. officials told Axios.

Why it matters: The waiver suggests the Trump administration intends to try to strengthen Lebanon's military and the new government that took office in January.


  • The aid is part of a broader Trump administration strategy to try to continue weakening Hezbollah, decreasing its influence in Lebanon and making sure the ceasefire with Israel holds, U.S. officials said.
  • "The Department approved an exception to expend the $95 million of foreign military funding recently reprogrammed to Lebanon. We are working with our Department of Defense colleagues to move forward with the implementation of these funds," a State Department spokesperson told Axios.

Driving the news: Hezbollah's influence in the country appears to be weakening over the last several weeks while the Lebanese army has gained a stronger foothold.

  • In February, security officials at the Beirut international airport didn't allow several commercial flights from Iran to land out of concern they were transferring millions of dollars in case to Hezbollah.
  • Hezbollah sent its supporters to block the roads to the airport. The Lebanese army fired tear gas at the protestors in order to force the blockade open.
  • "This was a big test for the Lebanese army," a U.S. official said.

Between the lines: Lebanon's new president Gen. Joseph Aoun was until recently the commander of the Lebanese army.

  • Aoun is a key U.S. ally and the Trump administration sees supporting the Lebanese army as a way to strengthen Aoun.
  • "Aoun presidency is a historic opportunity to change the reality in Lebanon for the better," a U.S. official told Axios.

The new Lebanese government platform stated for the first time in years that only the Lebanese state and its armed forces are responsible for defending the country.

  • It is a marked change from the previous governments, which said the state and "the resistance" β€” synonymous with Hezbollah β€” are responsible for defensing the country.

State of play: As part of the ceasefire agreement with Israel, the Lebanese armed forces have been deployed to southern Lebanon, especially to areas where Hezbollah militants were positioned before the war.

  • The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has almost entirely pulled out from southern Lebanon. Israeli soldiers stayed in five positions several hundreds meters inside Lebanese territory. The Lebanese government officially said it opposes the IDF remaining in these positions.
  • But U.S. and Israeli officials said there is a quiet understanding between the three countries that the IDF presence will continues for several weeks or months until the Lebanese army stabilizes the situation in southern Lebanon and ensures Hezbollah is no longer a threat.

Behind the scenes: U.S. and Israeli officials said the U.S.-led ceasefire monitoring mechanism is working well.

  • For the first time in years, the Lebanese army entered areas in southern Lebanon that used to be controlled by Hezbollah, destroyed military infrastructure and confiscated some of the group's ammunition caches, the officials said.
  • "A year ago nobody would believe this is possible. It is major progress," a U.S. official said.

Trump's push to work with Russia is upending U.S. cyber strategy

By: Sam Sabin
4 March 2025 at 02:30

Under Trump 2.0, everything the cybersecurity industry knew about D.C. is up for debate β€” even who is considered an adversarial nation.

Why it matters: For decades, U.S. presidents of both parties have viewed China, Russia, Iran and North Korea as the biggest cyber threats. But that list is now in question.


The big picture: President Trump's push to reset diplomatic ties with Russia is likely to upend long-standing cybersecurity norms, with consequences that could play out for years.

Driving the news: The U.S. Cyber Command was recently ordered to pause planning offensive cyber operations against Russia, multiple outlets reported over the weekend.

  • A senior DoD official declined to confirm the order but told Axios, "There is no greater priority to Secretary Hegseth than the safety of the Warfighter in all operations, including the cyber domain."
  • Meanwhile, Trump is reportedly drafting a plan to ease sanctions on Russia and has sent back Russian cybercriminals in prisoner swaps.
  • The administration has also reportedly reassigned dozens of FBI officials investigating foreign election interference β€” which Russia has repeatedly been accused of.
  • The Kremlin has celebrated these actions, saying yesterday that the new American foreign policy "largely coincides" with its own.

Yes, but: The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said Sunday it is still prioritizing cyber threats from Russia, despite news reports suggesting otherwise.

  • "There has been no change in our posture," the agency wrote on X. "Any reporting to the contrary is fake and undermines our national security."

Between the lines: Russia has long been a top cyber threat, hosting ransomware gangs, crypto money launderers, disinformation operations, and elite government hackers.

Threat level: A pause in offensive operations β€” even briefly β€” could take months to recover from, Jake Williams, a former NSA hacker and faculty member at IANS Research, told Axios.

  • Planning a cyber offense requires months of lurking and learning about a target's networks to understand their weak points.
  • Russian cyber operatives could decide to completely re-wire their networks while Cyber Command has its pause in effect β€” and cyber adversaries from other countries could obfuscate their own activities by disguising them through known Russian tactics.
  • The downtime in activity could out any United States hackers who Russia was already suspicious of and monitoring closely, Williams added.

Zoom in: The order applies only to Cyber Command, not to the National Security Agency's intelligence collection, according to the reports.

  • Also, separating intelligence-gathering from operations planning is near impossible in the cyber realm. Analysts often need to collect tips and open-source information before they can confidently link particular hackers to specific countries.
  • "I'm not sure how to split those hairs," Williams said. "Every intelligence asset is a potential jumping off point for an offensive cyber operation."

What we're watching: Trump has made it clear that, among the four major cyber adversaries, China is his top priority.

  • Many of his administration's new cyber officials are pushing for more aggressive operations against China.
  • But Russian hackers were responsible for some of the cyberattacks in recent years that were most disruptive to civilian life.

Kennedy's early warning signs on vaccine policy

4 March 2025 at 02:30

In nearly three weeks as Health and Human Services secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. certainly hasn't allayed concerns that he'll bring his vaccine criticism β€” most if not all of it unfounded β€” into his role as the nation's top health care official.

Why it matters: Several of Kennedy's vaccine-related actions have stoked fears that the anti-vaccine movement has gained a powerful foothold within the federal government in the midst of a worsening measles outbreak in Texas, one of the worst flu seasons in more than a decade and a circulating bird flu virus that has pandemic potential.


Driving the news: Kennedy drew attention last week during a Cabinet meeting, when he described measles outbreaks as "not unusual" after one now hitting west Texas and New Mexico resulted in the first U.S. death from the virus since 2015 and almost half of the cases seen last year.

  • He then wrote in a Fox News op-ed over the weekend that vaccines protect individuals and communities from the disease but also that "all parents should consult with their healthcare providers to understand their options to get the MMR vaccine," and that "[t]he decision to vaccinate is a personal one."

The lukewarm support for measles vaccines came after a tumultuous few weeks in vaccine policy, including the Food and Drug Administration's cancellation of a March 13 meeting of a federal advisory panel to discuss the composition of next season's flu shot.

  • Earlier this month, a Centers of Disease Control and Prevention advisory panel on vaccines was told that a February meeting on updating vaccination guidelines had been postponed indefinitely.
  • The administration is also reviewing whether to pull $590 million in funding that Moderna received in the final days of the Biden administration to develop an mRNA vaccine for bird flu, reportedly as part of a bigger examination of spending on mRNA-based shots.
  • "In isolation each of these actions have their own tolerable explanation, but taken collectively they raise the specter that RFK's trial-lawyer antipathy to any and all vaccinations continues to reign supreme," a person who worked on Kennedy's confirmation told Axios.

The big picture: Everything could still turn out fine, and the U.S. may resume business as usual when it comes to vaccines after a bumpy transition period. But it's hard to ignore the series of unusual vaccine-related decisions made over the last couple of weeks against the backdrop of Kennedy's decades of anti-vaccine activism prior to his government role.

  • Kennedy said during his confirmation hearing that he wouldn't take away people's vaccines, but didn't disavow past anti-vaccine statements.
  • The Trump administration clearly relishes disruptions to the status quo. It's plausible that these past few weeks are just the beginning of a brand-new, less transparent approach to vaccine policy under Kennedy's leadership β€”Β an approach that deeply alarms scientists and public health experts.

Kennedy's actions so far are "significant things, and I think it's just the tip of the iceberg," said Richard Hughes, a professor of vaccine law at George Washington University and a partner at Epstein, Becker & Green.

  • "This is a man who was one of the most pivotal leaders in the anti-vaccine movement," he added. "It's not like he woke up one day and said, 'You know what, I feel different about vaccines.'"

The other side: "RFK has a mandate, under the MAHA movement, to allow for all of science to be critiqued and challenged," said David Mansdoerfer, a former senior HHS official in the first Trump administration.

  • "These actions don't represent the rise of an anti-vaccine movement, they instead represent a return to science being able [to be] rigorously discussed in the public square," he said.

What they're saying: Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia and a member of the FDA's advisory committee, told Axios that the cancellation or postponement of meetings, combined with recent workforce reductions at health agencies, reflects "just a gradual sort of dismembering of the public health service."

  • Offit said he didn't know the reasoning behind cancellation of the meeting on flu vaccine but that HHS officials said that they are going to make the decision about the vaccine internally within the FDA.
  • "The irony to me is that Robert F Kennedy Jr. talks endlessly about transparency, and now you have meetings being canceled and decisions being made behind closed doors," Offit said.

Some advocacy groups were especially alarmed at the cancellation of the flu vaccine discussions, considering the severity of the current flu season and possibly delays formulating next year's shots.

  • "Cancelling essential health advisory committee meetings without promptly rescheduling them is appalling," said Public Citizen Health Research Group director Robert Steinbrook.

Officials haven't said why the advisory panel's meeting on flu vaccines was canceled, but an HHS spokesperson said the FDA will "make public its recommendations to manufacturers in time for updated vaccines to be available for the 2025-2026 influenza season."

  • HHS and CDC said in identical statements that the meeting on updating vaccination guidelines for infectious diseases was postponed "to accommodate public comment in advance of the meeting," adding that advisory working groups had met as scheduled.
  • Addressing the review of federal funding of mRNA vaccines, an HHS spokesperson told Axios: "While it is crucial that the U.S. Department and Health and Human Services support pandemic preparedness, four years of the Biden administration's failed oversight have made it necessary to review agreements for vaccine production."

What to watch: Kennedy has considerable discretion to put his stamp on vaccine policy, drug approvals and any number of other issues.

  • Some critics expect more requests for vaccine safety data and the appointment of like-minded individuals to advisory panels that could influence coverage of drugs, services and devices.
  • His leadership could also result in a shift of federal health funding to chronic disease or unproven cures, and away from infectious diseases.

Tina Reed contributed to this story.

Trump's new China tariffs take effect, but there's a $100 billion hole

4 March 2025 at 02:00

President Trump is making good on tariff threats that will raise the stakes of his trade war with China and potentially ignite another in North America.

Why it matters: It breaks a pattern of head fakes that Wall Street and businesses large and small had hoped would continue.


  • Financial market jitters and bearish anecdotes from manufacturers were not enough to stave off the levies.
  • Trump will plow ahead with 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and double the import tax on Chinese goods to 20%, with few hints of how long the measures will last.

The big picture: Escalating trade tensions have already been rattling the economy, even before the new tariffs took effect. Many businesses are in paralysis, waiting to make a move until White House trade policy becomes clear.

  • One manufacturer told the Institute of Supply Management: "Customers are pausing on new orders as a result of uncertainty regarding tariffs. There is no clear direction from the administration on how they will be implemented, so it's harder to project how they will affect business."

The intrigue: A new report casts doubt on how much a tougher trade policy has actually choked off imports from China.

  • There are upward of $100 billion worth of imports "missing" from U.S. data in 2024 β€” a trend that has worsened since the opening salvo of the trade war in 2018, according to calculations by the New York Fed.
  • The report finds that "virtually all" of the missing imports can be attributed to China.
  • If the nation is more reliant on Chinese imports than previously thought, the economic blowback from new tariffs might be worse.

What they're saying: "Simply stated, the U.S. is saying it buys from China a lot less than what China says it is selling," Hunter Clark, an economic policy adviser at the New York Fed, wrote in a new report.

  • One clue: At least half stems from a surge of small-dollar purchases from China β€” including imports from popular Chinese e-commerce sites β€” that are not included in U.S. import data.
  • These de minimis imports are not subject to tariffs and enter the U.S. "with light documentation," the report said, which contributes to the understated import data.
  • About 67% of all the de minimis imports came from China between 2018 and 2021, according to estimates by Customs and Border Protection cited in the New York Fed report.

What to watch: An initial Trump order would have effectively scrapped the de minimis exemption. That has been paused indefinitely while the government develops a system to collect tariffs on these goods.

  • If that exemption is nixed, the effects might be notable for consumers buying from shopping platforms like Shein or Temu.

The bottom line: Trump has implemented bigger China tariffs in recent weeks than in the entirety of his first stint in office.

  • A flaw in trade measurement adds to the uncertainty of how big a shock might be ahead.

Trump's stunning string of Putin-friendly moves

4 March 2025 at 02:00

President Trump's decision to suspend all military aid to Ukraine is the latest in a string of moves that could have been plucked from Vladimir Putin's personal wishlist.

Why it matters: Trump is also considering sanctions relief for Moscow and hinting at regime change in Kyiv. The Moscow-friendly streak comes as he seeks to foster peace in Ukraine and better relations between nuclear-armed superpowers.


Driving the news: A White House official told Axios' Barak Ravid Monday night that Trump is stopping all arms shipments to Ukraine because he's "focused on peace" and Ukraine must "be committed to that goal as well."

  • Trump told reporters earlier Monday that he believes Russia wants peace, but that "maybe someone doesn't want to make a deal" β€” an apparent reference to Zelensky.
  • "If someone doesn't want to make a deal, I think that person won't be around very long," Trump added, likely referring to MAGA's growing calls for Zelensky's resignation or new elections in Ukraine.

The Kremlin, for its part, said Sunday that the "rapidly changing" U.S. foreign policy approach "largely coincides with our vision."

Breaking it down: Trump has made at least five Moscow-friendly moves just in the last two weeks.

1. The White House asked Treasury and State to identify sanctions on Russia that could be loosened as part of the process of improving relations, Reuters reports.

  • Trump didn't deny that Monday, telling reporters: "We want to make deals with everybody."

2. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly ordered U.S. Cyber Command to suspend offensive cyber and information operations against Russia.

  • The suspension is intended to last as long as negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war play out, officials told the Washington Post.

3. Trump has called for elections in Ukraine, and he and his allies suggested after the Oval Office spat that Zelensky might need to go.

  • Regime change in Kyiv was one of Putin's original objectives for invading. It remains unlikely he'll be able to install a Kremlin stooge any time soon.
  • Still, Trump's comments denouncing Zelensky β€” and his moves to freeze him out after the meeting β€” have weakened the position of a leader the Kremlin has long sought to discredit internationally.
  • Reality check: Ukraine has been under martial law since the invasion began, and its constitution does not allow for elections in such a scenario.

4. The U.S. voted with Russia and 16 other mostly authoritarian countries to oppose a UN resolution last week that condemned Russia's "aggression" in Ukraine.

  • The Biden administration repeatedly used such votes to depict Russia as a pariah state. This time, the U.S. voted with Moscow and against nearly all its Western allies.

5. Suspending weapons shipments β€” which the Trump administration had already dramatically slowed β€” is the latest dramatic step.

  • Billions of dollars of equipment committed under Biden were in different stages along the delivery pipeline, Axios' Sareen Habeshian reports.
  • Zelensky told NBC's "Meet the Press" last month that Ukraine had only a "low chance to survive" without U.S. military support.
  • Trump and his team have also discussed whether to limit U.S. intelligence cooperation with Ukraine.

The big picture: Trump's friendliness toward Putin isn't a new phenomenon. Investigations into the president's ties to Russia dogged much of his first term, and pursuing revenge for the "Russia hoax" has become core to MAGA's political identity.

  • Trump pushed back Monday on the notion that his foreign policy matches the Kremlin's, pointing to the fact that Russia's past invasions β€” Georgia in 2008, Crimea in 2014, and all of Ukraine in 2022 β€” took place while he was out of his office.
  • "Under President Trump they got nothing, and under President Biden they tried to get the whole thing. If I didn't get in here they would have gotten the whole thing," Trump argued.
  • The White House, Pentagon, State Department and Treasury all declined to comment or did not respond to requests for comment.

Between the lines: Dangling sanctions relief, a cyber truce and international reintegration could all give Trump leverage over Putin, particularly at a time when he's trying to convince him to make peace.

  • The honeymoon may not last, particularly as Trump has himself conceded he may be wrong in thinking Putin truly wants a peace deal.
  • So far, though, he's offered nearly all carrots and no sticksΒ for Putin β€” in sharp contrast to Zelensky.
  • In part, that reflects Trump's preference for dealing superpower-to-superpower, in a world dictated by hard power.

Go deeper: Trump's new world order

Scoop: Some Democrats are plotting to disrupt Trump's speech to Congress

4 March 2025 at 08:33

Democratic lawmakers are discussing a litany of options to protest at President Trump's speech to Congress on Tuesday, including through outright disruption, a half dozen House Democrats told Axios.

Why it matters: Some of these tactics go beyond their leaders' recommendation that members bring guests hurt by Trump and DOGE. This sets up a potential clash between party traditionalists and its more combative anti-Trump wing.


  • "The part that we all agree on is that this is not business as usual and we would like to find a way β€” productively β€” to express our outrage," one House Democrat told Axios.
  • There is widespread disagreement among Democrats, both inside and outside of Congress, over what would be the most appropriate and effective form of demonstration.

What we're hearing: Some members have told colleagues they may walk out of the chamber when Trump says specific lines they find objectionable, lawmakers told Axios.

  • Criticism of transgender kids was brought up as a line in the sand that could trigger members to storm out, according to a House Democrat.

A wide array of props β€” including noisemakers β€” has also been floated:

The intrigue: In closed-door meetings and on the House floor Monday night, lawmakers were specifically discouraged from using props, two House Democrats told Axios.

  • These tactics are also a source of considerable internal debate among House Democratic rank-and-file β€” in large part based on what they've heard back in their districts.
  • "There are definitely a lot of constituents that really want Democrats to disrupt and there are ... constituents who feel like that just plays into his hands," one House Democrat told Axios.

Zoom out: Disruptions during joint session speeches used to provoke outrage, but have become increasingly common in recent years.

  • Rep. Joe Wilson's (R-S.C.) outburst at former President Obama β€” ''you lie," he shouted β€”Β was a shocking event in 2009.
  • Former President Biden was persistently heckled by Republicans during multiple State of the Union addresses.
  • Then there was the aforementioned disruption of Netanyahu's speech by Tlaib.

Zoom in: Some groups of Democrats plan to mount more traditional protests through the use of color coordination in their wardrobe choices.

  • Pink: The Democratic Women's Caucus wants all their members to wear pink in a unified display of defiance to a president many of them despise.
  • Black: Female members of the Congressional Black Caucus have separately discussed donning black to more accurately capture the party's somber mood.
  • Blue and yellow: Ukraine Caucus co-chair Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) will distribute ties and scarves with the colors of Ukraine's flag to signal support for President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Others plan to sit stone-faced and refuse to clap during the entire speech, another time-honored tactic for opposition party members to silently protest the president.

What they're saying: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) wrote in a letter to House Democrats that he and other leaders plan to attend the speech to "make clear to the nation that there is a strong opposition party ready, willing and able to serve as a check and balance."

  • Jeffries also said leadership understands if some members skip the speech β€” as several have said they plan to do β€” but urged a "strong, determined and dignified Democratic presence in the chamber."
  • House Democratic caucus chair Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) told Axios leadership is telling members to "keep the focus on the health and safety and the economic wellbeing of our constituents."

The bottom line: "Whether we are wearing pink, or black, or yellow and blue, we are all conveying our displeasure with this administration," said. Rep. Stacey Plaskett (D-V.I.).

  • "What's more important is our work together and the pressure for three Republicans to do the right thing for everyone," she said.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional reporting.

Yesterday β€” 3 March 2025Axios News

Trade war erupts as Trump hits Canada, Mexico and China with tariffs

4 March 2025 at 14:04

President Trump's 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as new levies on Chinese imports took effect on Tuesday.

Why it matters: Trump's confirmation of the tariffs sent markets sliding amid fears it could raise prices for U.S. customers, hurt the economy and prompt a trade war.


  • Canada and China took retaliatory action against U.S. products as tariffs targeting their countries took effect.

What to watch: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that a deal with North American allies could be announced as soon as tomorrow, opening the door for potential tariff relief.

  • "I think he's going to work something out with them," Lutnick told Fox Business on Tuesday, referring to Trump.
  • "It's not gonna be a pause. None of that pause stuff. But I think he's gonna figure out, 'you do more, and I'll meet you in the middle,'" Lutnick added.

Where it stands: Lutnick spoke after financial markets fell for the second straight day.

  • Canada and China announced retaliatory measures after the tariffs took effect on Tuesday.
  • Mexico's president, Claudia Sheinbaum, said Tuesday she would hold a rally in Mexico City in the days ahead to announce a package of response measures.

Zoom in: In a statement, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the nation would impose tariffs on "$30Β billion worth of goods immediately, and tariffs on the remaining $125Β billion on American products in 21 days' time."

  • After Chinese imports were hit with an additional 10% tariff on top of the 10% Trump had imposed earlier this year, officials in Beijing announced 15% tariffs on some U.S. agriculture imports, including chicken, corn, cotton and wheat.

State of play: Trump last month struck a deal on border security with Canadian and Mexican officials and paused the tariffs for 30 days. President Trump said no progress had been made during negotiations.

  • In a statement, the White House said the tariffs would "combat the extraordinary threat to U.S. national security, including our public health posed by unchecked drug trafficking."

What they're saying: Trudeau said that Canada has "worked relentlessly" to address concerns about fentanyl entering the U.S., although a minuscule amount originates from the nation.

Go deeper: Trump tariffs will cause price hikes on these everyday goods

Editor's note: This article has been updated with comments from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

Trump pausing all U.S. military aid to Ukraine

3 March 2025 at 16:28

President Trump decided to pause and review all military aid to Ukraine days after the public spat with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office, two White House officials told Axios.

Why it matters: The decision that was taken after a meeting on Monday between Trump and his senior adviser would increase pressure on Zelensky and create more difficulties for Ukraine's military.


What they're saying: "President Trump has been clear that he is focused on peace," one White House official said.

  • "We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well. We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution."

Zoom out: The previous administration sent some $65.9 billion in military assistance to the country since Russia's invasion in February 2022, per the State Department.

  • Trump had not announced any additional aid since taking office.
  • Bloomberg first reported on Trump's aid decision.

Go deeper: What military aid the U.S. is still providing Ukraine under Trump

Editor's note: This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

Linda McMahon confirmed to lead Education Department

3 March 2025 at 15:27

The Senate confirmed Linda McMahon on Monday to serve as head of the Education Department β€”Β an entity President Trump has targeted for elimination,

Why it matters: Trump's proposals to dismantle the Department of Education could have dramatic implications for public schools that rely on federal funds to fill gaps in state and local support. Experts point to a recipe for chaos as critical government programs are reorganized.


  • The vote was 51-45.
  • Trump told reporters last month he hopes McMahon will "put herself out of a job."

The big picture: McMahon, a former World Wrestling Entertainment executive, headed the Small Business Administration during Trump's first term and is a longtime Trump ally (and megadonor).

  • In advance of her confirmation, the Education Department offered a buyout of up to $25,000 to most of its employees, Politico reported, citing an email sent Friday to staffers.

Reality check: Eliminating the Department of Education, which has been a punching bag for the GOP for decades, would require congressional action.

  • But that's not to say the administration won't try to dismantle it before urging lawmakers to deliver the final blow.
  • The Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has begun dissecting the agency from the inside, claiming last month that the team had terminated some $881 million in contracts deemed wasteful.

Zoom out: McMahon will be tasked with implementing several education-related executive orders Trump has signed, including one that threatens to slash funding for K-12 schools that "indoctrinate" students by teaching about race and gender.

The other side: NAACP President Derrick Johnson said McMahon's confirmation "brings us one step closer to losing our Department of Educationβ€”the agency that not only funds public schools, but advocates for our teachers and enforces essential civil rights laws.

  • "Today marks another dark day in Americaβ€”not just for our government but for our kids," Johnson said.

Go deeper: Trump taps major donors, eldest sons to lead transition team

Vance says giving U.S. an "economic upside in the future of Ukraine" is best for Kyiv

3 March 2025 at 22:38

Vice President JD Vance said Monday the Trump administration is working with Russia to end its war on Ukraine and that the "door is open" for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky if he's "willing to seriously talk peace."

Why it matters: In his first interview since Friday's heated White House exchange that Vance and President Trump had with Zelensky, the vice president on Fox News criticized Ukraine's leader and argued that it's in Kyiv's best interests to sign a minerals deal with the U.S.


Driving the news: "If you want real security guarantees, if you want to actually ensure that [Russian leader] Vladimir Putin does not invade Ukraine again, the very best security guarantee is to give Americans economic upside in the future of Ukraine," Vance said on Fox News' "Hannity."

  • "That is a way better security guarantee than 20,000 troops from some random country that hasn't fought a war in 30 or 40 years."

Zoom in: During the interview, Vance told Fox News host Sean Hannity that Zelensky had "showed a clear unwillingness to engage in the peace process" that Trump has said is "the policy of the American people and of their president."

  • He accused Zelensky of showing "a certain sense of entitlement" at the Oval Office.

Zoom out: Zelensky said on X Sunday he's "ready to sign" a minerals deal with the the U.S., but a "ceasefire without security guarantees is dangerous for Ukraine."

  • The Ukrainian president has said security guarantees are needed due to Moscow's breach of a ceasefire agreement after its annexation of Crimea in eastern Ukraine in 2014.
  • Meanwhile, officials in the U.S. and France are working on a plan for a European peacekeeping force, an idea that Axios' Barak Ravid reports Trump has endorsed.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with additional details throughout.

DOGE moves to cancel NOAA leases at critical forecasting centers

4 March 2025 at 08:17

The Trump administration has informed NOAA that two pivotal centers for weather forecasting will soon have their leases canceled, sources told Axios.

Why it matters: One of the buildings is the nerve center for generating national weather forecasts.


  • It was designed to integrate multiple forecasting centers in one building to improve operating efficiency. It houses telecommunications equipment to send weather data and forecasts across the U.S. and abroad.

Driving the news: The NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction is on the lease cancellation list, according to a NOAA employee who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution.

  • Two ex-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officials also confirmed the list.
  • The building houses the National Weather Service's National Centers for Environmental Prediction, or NCEP, which includes the Environmental Modeling Center. It opened in 2012 and has about 268,000 square feet of space.
  • The modeling center runs the computer models used in day-to-day weather forecasting, and ensures that weather data correctly goes into these models and that they are operating correctly.

The lease cancellation was first reported by The Verge. The National Weather Service didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

  • The NOAA employee told Axios the cancellations β€” along with recent layoffs, early retirements, and travel and hiring limitations β€” point to an effort to dismantle the agency.

The other side: A senior White House official told Axios on Tuesday that for NOAA, the administration is "simply reevaluating the lease terms, not closing any building, which any good steward of money would do."

  • The official stressed that no formal lease-cancellation letter has been sent to NOAA. The official acknowledged that DOGE is canceling leases at other government agencies, but said NOAA is an exception.

Between the lines: Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been working through the General Services Administration to cancel government leases of office space.

  • The NOAA employee told Axios a nightmare scenario could unfold if the College Park building was shuttered, but the agency still was tasked with the same missions as at present.
  • In that case, NOAA would have to somehow replicate its functionality somewhere else in a process that could take a year or more and leave critical forecasting gaps.
  • It would also require new congressional appropriations to get that done.

The intrigue: The cancellation notice for the College Park facility isn't final, as a spreadsheet detailing all the properties on the cancellation list has an end date of "TBD" for that building, according to the NOAA staff member.

  • Another building on the list, which came to NOAA by way of GSA, now has an end date of Sept. 30, 2025.
  • That facility in Norman, Okla. is the Radar Operations Center, a centralized hub for technicians and researchers to work on improving and repairing the nation's aging fleet of Doppler weather radars.

The DOGE website has a section on canceled or modified government real estate properties. It shows several NOAA facilities, though not the exact building in College Park as of Monday.

  • In addition to the National Weather Service-related properties, numerous buildings on the so-called "wet side" of NOAA are on the list the agency received, including the National Marine Fisheries Service.

What they're saying: Andrew Rosenberg, a former NOAA official on the agency's fisheries side, has seen the cancellation list. He likened the College Park situation to cutting the government via a "chainsaw" approach rather than more fully considered cuts.

  • Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) told Axios he hadn't heard anything final about NOAA buildings in Maryland.
  • "I am worried," he told Axios after speaking at a rally Monday outside NOAA headquarters in Silver Spring, Md.
  • "We know they're looking through GSA," he said of DOGE. "We should be concerned and worry about all these things, which is why the sooner we shut down the efforts to illegally get rid of federal employees the better."

Van Hollen said his staff will look into the College Park facility in particular. He already has sent a letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick seeking answers following the NOAA cuts of probationary employees last week.

  • His office put the total of those layoffs to 650 out of NOAA's approximately 12,000-person workforce.

What's next: NOAA, like other government agencies, has been told to plan for even deeper cuts.

Go deeper:

Top weather, climate agency NOAA the latest layoff target

NOAA layoffs threaten weather, climate forecasts

DOGE plans for NOAA, FEMA could have big climate impacts

Editor's note: This story is updated with comments from the White House.

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