President Trump's 25% tariffs on Canada's and Mexico's exports to the U.S. and new levies on China took effect early Tuesday.

Why it matters: Trump's confirmation of the tariffs sent markets sliding Monday amid fears it could raise prices for U.S. customers, see inflation soar and start a trade war — and Canada and China took retaliatory action against U.S. products as tariffs targeting their countries took effect.

• After Chinese exports were hit with an additional 10% tariff on top of the 10% Trump had imposed earlier this year, officials in Beijing announced 15% tariffs on some U.S. agriculture imports, including chicken, corn, cotton and wheat.
• Canada, which is also facing 10% tariffs on energy products, announced a raft of countermeasures.

Zoom in: Canadian Prime Minister Justin said in a statement Monday Canadian officials would move to impose 25% tariffs against "$155 billion of American goods" at 12:01am Tuesday, when he noted Trump's "unjustified" tariffs were due to take effect.

• Canada would start with tariffs on "$30 billion worth of goods immediately, and tariffs on the remaining $125 billion on American products in 21 days' time," Trudeau said.
• "Our tariffs will remain in place until the U.S. trade action is withdrawn, and should U.S. tariffs not cease, we are in active and ongoing discussions with provinces and territories to pursue several non-tariff measures," Trudeau added.
• "Because of the tariffs imposed by the U.S., Americans will pay more for groceries, gas, and cars, and potentially lose thousands of jobs. Tariffs will disrupt an incredibly successful trading relationship."

State of play: Trump last month struck a deal on border security with Canadian and Mexican officials and paused for 30 days his threat to impose on the countries his planned tariffs, but the president made clear on Monday no progress had been made during negotiations.

• Trump was proceeding with implementing the tariffs on Canada and Mexico "to combat the extraordinary threat to U.S. national security, including our public health posed by unchecked drug trafficking," per a White House statement early Tuesday.
• The White House said Trump gave Canadian and Mexican officials "ample opportunity to curb the dangerous cartel activity and influx of lethal drugs flowing into our country," but "they have failed to adequately address the situation."

What they're saying: Trudeau said in his statement while less than 1% of the fentanyl intercepted at the U.S. border comes from Canada, "we have worked relentlessly to address this scourge that affects Canadians and Americans alike."

• He pointed to Canada implementing a $1.3 billion border plan "with new choppers, boots on the ground," increased resources to stop the flow of fentanyl and a Canada-U.S. Joint Strike Force on organized crime was being established.
• Trudeau said such efforts, along with appointing a Fentanyl Czar, listing transnational criminal cartels as terrorist organizations and working in partnership with the U.S. on the issue, had resulted in a 97% drop in fentanyl seizures from Canada between December and January to "a near-zero low of 0.03 pounds seized by U.S. Customs and Border Protection."
• There was no immediate response from Mexican officials to the tariffs, but President Claudia Sheinbaum told reporters on Monday she had a plan for if they were to take effect and would provide details on Tuesday.
• Representatives for the White House did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment.

Go deeper: Trump tariffs will cause price hikes on these everyday goods

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

President Trump decided to pause and review all military aid to Ukraine days after the public spat with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office, two White House officials told Axios.

Why it matters: The decision that was taken after a meeting on Monday between Trump and his senior adviser would increase pressure on Zelensky and create more difficulties for Ukraine's military.

What they're saying: "President Trump has been clear that he is focused on peace," one White House official said.

• "We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well. We are pausing and reviewing our aid to ensure that it is contributing to a solution."

Zoom out: The previous administration sent some $65.9 billion in military assistance to the country since Russia's invasion in February 2022, per the State Department.

• Trump had not announced any additional aid since taking office.
• Bloomberg first reported on Trump's aid decision.

Go deeper: What military aid the U.S. is still providing Ukraine under Trump

Editor's note: This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

The Senate confirmed Linda McMahon on Monday to serve as head of the Education Department — an entity President Trump has targeted for elimination,

Why it matters: Trump's proposals to dismantle the Department of Education could have dramatic implications for public schools that rely on federal funds to fill gaps in state and local support. Experts point to a recipe for chaos as critical government programs are reorganized.

• The vote was 51-45.
• Trump told reporters last month he hopes McMahon will "put herself out of a job."

The big picture: McMahon, a former World Wrestling Entertainment executive, headed the Small Business Administration during Trump's first term and is a longtime Trump ally (and megadonor).

• In advance of her confirmation, the Education Department offered a buyout of up to $25,000 to most of its employees, Politico reported, citing an email sent Friday to staffers.

Reality check: Eliminating the Department of Education, which has been a punching bag for the GOP for decades, would require congressional action.

• But that's not to say the administration won't try to dismantle it before urging lawmakers to deliver the final blow.
• The Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has begun dissecting the agency from the inside, claiming last month that the team had terminated some $881 million in contracts deemed wasteful.

Zoom out: McMahon will be tasked with implementing several education-related executive orders Trump has signed, including one that threatens to slash funding for K-12 schools that "indoctrinate" students by teaching about race and gender.

The other side: NAACP President Derrick Johnson said McMahon's confirmation "brings us one step closer to losing our Department of Education—the agency that not only funds public schools, but advocates for our teachers and enforces essential civil rights laws.

• "Today marks another dark day in America—not just for our government but for our kids," Johnson said.

Go deeper: Trump taps major donors, eldest sons to lead transition team

Vice President JD Vance said Monday the Trump administration is working with Russia to end its war on Ukraine and said the "door is open" for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky if he's "willing to seriously talk peace."

Why it matters: In his first interview since Friday's heated White House exchange that Vance and President Trump had with Zelensky, the vice president on Fox News criticized Ukraine's leader and argued that it's in Kyiv's best interests to sign a minerals deal with the U.S.

Driving the news: "If you want real security guarantees, if you want to actually ensure that [Russian leader] Vladimir Putin does not invade Ukraine again, the very best security guarantee is to give Americans economic upside in the future of Ukraine," Vance said on Fox News' "Hannity."

• "That is a way better security guarantee than 20,000 troops from some random country that hasn't fought a war in 30 or 40 years."

Zoom in: During the interview, Vance told Fox News host Sean Hannity that Zelensky had "showed a clear unwillingness to engage in the peace process" that Trump has said is "the policy of the American people and of their president."

• He accused Zelensky of showing "a certain sense of entitlement" at the Oval Office.

Zoom out: Zelensky said on X Sunday he's "ready to sign" a minerals deal with the the U.S., but a "ceasefire without security guarantees is dangerous for Ukraine."

• The Ukrainian president has said security guarantees are needed due to Moscow's breach of a ceasefire agreement after its annexation of Crimea in eastern Ukraine in 2014.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with additional details throughout.

The Trump administration has informed NOAA that two pivotal centers for weather forecasting will soon have their leases canceled, sources told Axios.

Why it matters: One of the buildings is the nerve center for generating national weather forecasts.

• It was designed to integrate multiple forecasting centers in one building to improve operating efficiency. It houses telecommunications equipment to send weather data and forecasts across the U.S. and abroad.

Driving the news: The NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction is on the lease cancellation list, according to a NOAA employee who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution.

• Two ex-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officials also confirmed the list.
• The building houses the National Weather Service's National Centers for Environmental Prediction, or NCEP, which includes the Environmental Modeling Center. It opened in 2012 and has about 268,000 square feet of space.
• The modeling center runs the computer models used in day-to-day weather forecasting, and ensures that weather data correctly goes into these models and that they are operating correctly.

The lease cancellation was first reported by The Verge. The National Weather Service didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

• The NOAA employee told Axios the cancellations — along with recent layoffs, early retirements, and travel and hiring limitations — point to an effort to dismantle the agency.

Between the lines: Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been working through the General Services Administration to cancel government leases of office space.

• The NOAA employee told Axios a nightmare scenario could unfold if the College Park building was shuttered, but the agency still was tasked with the same missions as at present.
• In that case, NOAA would have to somehow replicate its functionality somewhere else in a process that could take a year or more and leave critical forecasting gaps.
• It would also require new congressional appropriations to get that done.

The intrigue: The cancellation notice for the College Park facility isn't final, as a spreadsheet detailing all the properties on the cancellation list has an end date of "TBD" for that building, according to the NOAA staff member.

• Another building on the list, which came to NOAA by way of GSA, now has an end date of Sept. 30, 2025.
• That facility in Norman, Okla. is the Radar Operations Center, a centralized hub for technicians and researchers to work on improving and repairing the nation's aging fleet of Doppler weather radars.

The DOGE website has a section on canceled or modified government real estate properties. It shows several NOAA facilities, though not the exact building in College Park as of Monday.

• In addition to the National Weather Service-related properties, numerous buildings on the so-called "wet side" of NOAA are on the list the agency received, including the National Marine Fisheries Service.

What they're saying: Andrew Rosenberg, a former NOAA official on the agency's fisheries side, has seen the cancellation list. He likened the College Park situation to cutting the government via a "chainsaw" approach rather than more fully considered cuts.

• Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) told Axios he hadn't heard anything final about NOAA buildings in Maryland.
• "I am worried," he told Axios after speaking at a rally Monday outside NOAA headquarters in Silver Spring, Md.
• "We know they're looking through GSA," he said of DOGE. "We should be concerned and worry about all these things, which is why the sooner we shut down the efforts to illegally get rid of federal employees the better."

Van Hollen said his staff will look into the College Park facility in particular. He already has sent a letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick seeking answers following the NOAA cuts of probationary employees last week.

• His office put the total of those layoffs to 650 out of NOAA's approximately 12,000-person workforce.

What's next: NOAA, like other government agencies, has been told to plan for even deeper cuts.

Go deeper:

Top weather, climate agency NOAA the latest layoff target

NOAA layoffs threaten weather, climate forecasts

DOGE plans for NOAA, FEMA could have big climate impacts

The TAKE IT DOWN Act, an online safety legislation, is gaining steam in Washington, D.C., as first lady Melania Trump expressed her support Monday.

The big picture: The bipartisan bill aims to bolster protections against the non-consensual dissemination of sexual images, including those generated through artificial intelligence and targets deepfake and revenge pornography.

Driving the news: The first lady and House Speaker Mike Johnson joined a roundtable on Capitol Hill on Monday with congressional leaders and victims of child sexual abuse material.

• At the meeting, Melania Trump spoke of the risks of an "AI-driven" world, saying, "Every young person deserves a safe online space to express themselves free without the looming threat of exploitation."

What is the TAKE IT DOWN Act?

The TAKE IT DOWN Act would require tech and social media platforms to remove CSAM and non-consensual intimate images within 48 hours of being notified by a victim, and it criminalizes posting such content, per Axios' Maria Curi.

• Under the bill, people who post such content would face penalties and prison time.
• The FTC could sue tech companies for not complying as an unfair or deceptive act or practice, Curi writes.

Who is supporting the bill?

The bill is sponsored by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), and has bipartisan support including from cosponsors like Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn) and Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.).

• The Senate passed the legislation unanimously last month.

Where it stands

House leaders said Monday they're ready to pass the bill.

• House Energy and Commerce Chair Brett Guthrie said an educational hearing on the bill will be held "very, very soon."
• He vowed it would be a top priority for the committee "over the next few weeks."

Go deeper: House leaders ready to pass deepfakes bill backed by Melania Trump

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Republicans on the Senate Finance Committee began hashing out what to do on taxes in a closed-door meeting Monday evening.

Why it matters: Don't expect the budget resolution that barely passed the House last week to stay as is. The two chambers passed very different budget resolutions.

• They will need to get on the same page to kick off the reconciliation process, which allows the Senate to get around its 60-vote filibuster.
• "We're working to put it all together in a way that makes the tax cuts permanent, prevents an increase in taxes, and deals with the key components and promises of the administration," Senate GOP Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) told Axios.

What to watch: Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) huddled separately right after the Senate meeting.

• Those two will be leading the tax debate for each chamber — a fight that could drag out for months.
• There's a lot less of an appetite for raising the SALT caps in the Senate than in the House.

Zoom in: One of the biggest changes the Senate is looking at is how it counts the cost of extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts, with Senate leadership pushing to adopt a current policy baseline — which makes the cost $0.

• "My understanding is that is a decision a parliamentarian is going to make," Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) told reporters after the meeting.
• Some conservatives like Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) won't like it, though Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) told Axios he is on board.
• "One point I tried to make is, I don't think that changes one iota how much money we spend," Cornyn said, adding, "I think it just demonstrates how illusory all the scoring really is."

Democratic senators are preparing to pummel three of President Trump's top State Department nominees on Tuesday, turning their confirmation hearings into a proxy war on the U.S. commitment to NATO and support for Ukraine.

Why it matters: It's the Democrats' first chance to punch back on what they saw as Trump's assault on Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office on Friday.

• Democrats — and many European leaders — were deeply dismayed by Trump's and Vice President Vance's exchange with Zelensky.
• They were dumbfounded by Trump's conciliatory words for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
• It will also give senators an opportunity to ask officials for details on Trump' pause on military funding for Ukraine.

Driving the news: Matthew Whitaker, Trump's pick to be ambassador to NATO, and Michael Rigas and Christopher Landau, his nominees for the two deputy secretary of state slots, are scheduled to appear before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday morning.

• Trump's nominees are indicating they'll fiercely defend Trump's approach and demand that European allies do more to strengthen NATO.
• "Leadership is not charity. The American people have carried the burden of global security for too long," Whitaker will say in his opening comments, according to remarks Axios obtained.
• "For decades, U.S. taxpayers have funded the lion's share of NATO's defense while too many of our allies have failed to meet even their most basic obligations."

What they're saying: "It is an open question that deserves a clear answer, whether or not this administration and its nominee to be our ambassador to NATO believe in the value of the NATO alliance," Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) told Axios.

• "He has told me in a private meeting that he is supportive" of NATO, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), the top Democrat on the committee, said of Whitaker.
• "The relationship with NATO, the relationship with Ukraine, the president buddying up to dictator Putin ... all of these are big problems," said Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.).

President Trump addresses a joint session of Congress Tuesday but it is not an official State of the Union address.

Why it matters: In Trump's first six weeks he has started a federal government overhaul, driven by DOGE, dismantled USAID and moved to shut down the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

• The address comes days after Trump's heated Oval Office meeting with Vice President Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
• Trump has also had a slew of executive orders, some of which have rolled back former President Biden's actions.

The big picture: The March 4 speech is the first Trump will give to Congress since returning to the White House.

• In late January, House Speaker Mike Johnson invited Trump via a letter to deliver the joint address to Congress.
• "TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE BIG. I WILL TELL IT LIKE IT IS!," Trump wrote on Truth Social Monday.

What time does Trump address Congress Tuesday?

Zoom in: Trump is scheduled to speak at 9pm ET on Tuesday, which is 6pm PT.

Why is Trump's address to Congress not a State of the Union?

State of play: When a president addresses a joint session of Congress, it is often referred to as a State of the Union speech.

• But for a president's first year in office, it's not called a State of the Union address even though the speech serves the same purpose.

Where is the Trump address to Congress held?

The speech is held in the chamber of the House of Representatives at the Capitol in Washington, D.C.

How to watch Trump's speech on TV or streaming

All major news networks are broadcasting the address, including CNN, PBS, NBC, MSNBC, CBS, Fox News, NewsNation and C-SPAN.

• Most networks start coverage starts hours before the address and will continue broadcasting analysis of the speech for hours after.

How long will Trump's speech be?

Flashback: Trump's 2017 speech was one hour long.

• The average length of his State of Union addresses held in 2018 through 2020 was one hour and 20 minutes, according to the American Presidency Project.

Between the lines: Not calling newly inaugurated presidents' early speeches to Congress "State of the Union addresses" has been going on for more than 40 years, according to the American Presidency Project.

• It started with Ronald Regan's 1981 address to Congress.

Who is giving Democrats' response to Trump's speech?

Zoom out: Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) is slated to give the Democratic response to Trump's address Tuesday.

• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) have been telling members to bring guests to the address who have been negatively impacted by the administration.

More from Axios:

• Hegseth suspends offensive cyber operations against Russia: reports
• Time is running out to get a Real ID ahead of May 7 deadline
• Trump says he's instructing Treasury to "stop producing new pennies"

A Democratic boycott is developing ahead of President Trump's address to Congress on Tuesday, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Democratic leaders have asked lawmakers to show up to the speech with people affected by DOGE and Trump's federal funding freeze.

• Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), one of the most senior Democrats in the Senate, will not attend Trump's speech on Tuesday, Axios has learned
• Neither will Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), who will instead host an online town hall.

The big picture: Democrats on Capitol Hill are split on how to best handle Trump's first big address to Congress of his second term.

• They have a guest list that they hope will showcase what they argue are the harms of Trump's first month in office.
• But other Democrats told us last week that they saw no reason to participate in the speech.

Go deeper: Fuming Democrats struggle with Trump speech strategy

President Trump confirmed Monday that his long-promised tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada will go into effect on Tuesday.

Why it matters: The announcement sent financial markets tumbling in anticipation of a potential trade war between the U.S. and its top trading partners.

State of play: Canada and Mexico will see 25% tariffs on goods exported into the U.S., while a 10% tariff will be levied on Chinese exports.

• The latter comes on top of the 10% tariff Trump already imposed on Chinese exports earlier this year.
• Trump's decision to pull the trigger on tariffs on Canada and Mexico came after he agreed early last month to delay the planned tariffs for a month.

The big picture: The tariffs will see Trump make good on his campaign pledge to institute sweeping tariffs on America's trade partners.

• Tariffs function like an additional tax on goods and are often passed onto consumers. Some retailers have already warned that they could be forced to raise prices.
• Exactly how much of the tariffs' costs are passed onto consumers remains to be seen, but experts predict that by next year the tariffs will reduce Americans' after-tax income by 1%.
• The tariffs are expected to hit working-class Americans especially hard.

Here are the goods that will be hit hard by Trump's tariffs:

Cars

Trump's tariffs threaten to decimate the U.S. auto industry, which relies on Canada and Mexico to assemble vehicles.

• Due to the complicated auto industry supply chains criss-crossing North America, a single car component could cross the U.S. border six to eight times before final assembly — with a 25% tariff applicable each time.
• This could make U.S.-made vehicles so expensive that buying a finished car from Europe, Japan, or Korea, could be significantly cheaper — even if tariffs are levied on those vehicles.

Energy

The U.S. relies on Mexico and Canada for critical energy exports that could make everyday activities — like cooking and heating their homes — more expensive for everyday Americans.

• Oil and gas are some of the U.S.' top imports from Mexico, while top imports from Canada are crude oil, petroleum gas and coal.
• In fact, the U.S.' reliance on Canada for crude oil has been increasing for decades.

Electronics

Computers and other electronics are expected to see persistent price increases due to the tariffs.

• The U.S. imports a significant portion of its electronics from China, including smartphones and computers.

Household goods

The U.S. is the largest market for Chinese exports, buying about 15% of everything China sends out.

• This encompasses a wide array of everyday household goods, from machinery, toys, furniture, sporting goods, footwear, clothing and textiles.

Food and beverages

The U.S. imports large amounts of food and beverage products from Canada and Mexico.

• In 2023, 63% of U.S. vegetable imports came from Mexico. The nation also supplied 43% of the United States' fruit and nut imports, per the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
• About 81% of U.S. beer imports came from Mexico in 2023.
• Canada is another major source of food for the U.S. and in 2023, almost 64% of U.S. agricultural imports from Canada consisted of "meat and other animal products, grains and feeds, and oilseeds and oilseed products," per the USDA.

Go deeper:

• A timeline of Trump's tariff proposals
• What Trump's tariffs mean for your wallet

The U.S. pledged more than $65 billion in military assistance to Ukraine under the Biden administration, but President Trump decided Monday to pull the plug, at least temporarily.

The big picture: Following a contentious televised meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump debated his next steps in the crisis with Ukraine, and indicated a possible suspension of U.S. military aid.

• The decision to pause and review all military aid, which comes as Trump pushes for peace talks, will be detrimental to Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia.
• While Trump has not authorized a new assistance package for Ukraine, billions of dollars of equipment committed under Biden remains in different stages along the delivery pipeline, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Zoom in: The CSIS report found that it typically takes about eight months from the announcement of an arms package to the completion of the delivery.

• That suggests much of what Biden promised in his last year in office has likely not yet been delivered — thought the Pentagon did attempt to surge deliveries in Biden's final weeks.
• It takes even longer — often several years — for weapons coming from U.S. defense contractors, rather than existing stockpiles, to be delivered.
• It would therefore take years to deliver what the U.S. has already promised.

Between the lines: With no aid announced since Trump took office, the deliveries to Ukraine from the U.S. have slowed, and remaining shipments of ammunition and equipment authorized under Biden could be canceled soon, a Trump administration official told the New York Times Friday.

• The administration does have the authority to stop the shipments, despite promises made by the previous administration, per CSIS.
• "More difficult would be stopping shipments of newly produced weapons from contracts Ukraine signed with the defense industry, though with funds provided by the United States," per the think tank, because legally those belong to Ukraine.
• However, the U.S. might be able to divert shipments to its own forces under Title I of the Defense Production Act or other emergency authorities.

By the numbers: As of January 20, the U.S. had dolled out $65.9 billion in military assistance to the country since Russia's invasion in February 2022, per the State Department.

• That includes air defense equipment, guns, ammunition, missiles, laser-guided rocket systems, air surveillance radars, helicopters, bomb launchers, hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds, tanks, armored vehicles, boats and more.
• Including humanitarian and financial assistance, Congress has appropriated $174.2 billion for Ukraine since 2022.

Zoom out: Ukraine also relies on the U.S. for more than just weapons and cash.

• The Ukrainian military also relies heavily on the Starlink satellite internet system from Elon Musk's SpaceX, with some 42,000 Starlink terminals in operation across the country as of last year.
• Ukraine's military also depends on U.S. intelligence, including to target drone strikes.
• The fate of broader U.S.-Ukraine cooperation remains uncertain after the public split between Trump and Zelensky.

Go deeper: Trump to hold Ukraine meeting on next steps including possible aid freeze

Editor's note: This article and the headline were updated to reflect President Trump's decision to pause military aid to Ukraine.

President Trump's decision to cancel a major oil deal with Venezuela came amid pressure from Miami's three GOP House members who oppose enriching Nicolás Maduro's dictatorship, four sources tell Axios.

Why it matters: To get their way, the three House members suggested — but never explicitly threatened — that they would withhold votes Trump needed for the GOP budget deal that the House narrowly passed last week.

• "They're going crazy and I need their votes," Trump explained to confidants when he privately signaled he would cancel the license allowing Venezuelan oil exports to the U.S.
• Reps. Mario Diaz-Balart, Carlos Gimenez and Maria Elvira Salazar then voted for the budget deal, which passed 217-215.
• Eight hours later, Trump announced on Truth Social that he was canceling the oil deal.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) related some of the behind-the-scenes story to a group of Republican donors during a fundraiser Friday at the Miami-area waterfront mansion of local health insurance magnate Ivan Herrera.

• Johnson told the crowd they "should be proud" of Diaz-Balart, Gimenez and Salazar.
• "The three Crazy Cubans, as we affectionately call them," Johnson said, "stood on principle" and delivered for their community, according to two sources at the fundraiser. They said Gimenez and Diaz-Balart chuckled approvingly at the nickname along with the donors, many of whom have Cuban roots.

The big picture: In a more conventional White House, power flows through a more defined process, through "proper channels" that involve careful vetting.

• In Trump's White House, power often circulates instantly, improvisationally and unexpectedly, based on Trump's gut, his needs at the time — or on catching him with the right idea at the right time, with the right words.

This previously untold story helps explain the contradictory positions that Trump's administration sometimes appears to take.

• It also highlights Trump's hands-on involvement in salvaging the House's controversial budget plan — and his familiarity with Florida's unique politics and its international reverberations.

Zoom in: Last Tuesday, the final day of the budget talks, Johnson put Diaz-Balart on the phone with Trump so the Miamian could make his pitch against the Venezuelan oil deal. The week before, Diaz-Balart and Gimenez had met with Trump in the White House to voice their concerns, two sources said.

• During Tuesday's call, Diaz-Balart reminded Trump of his campaign promises to crack down on Maduro, two sources briefed on the call said. Diaz-Balart told Trump that Maduro's dictatorship was "thrown a lifeline" by President Biden when he relaxed sanctions, which Trump had slapped on Venezuela during his previous administration.
• "Mario never threatened their vote or offered a quid pro quo because threatening Trump is just counterproductive," said one of those sources. "They all know that."
• Diaz-Balart, Gimenez and Salazar declined to comment. A Johnson spokesperson confirmed the House members fought to end support to Maduro's government but wouldn't comment further.

Between the lines: Trump already wasn't inclined to continue the Venezuela petroleum deal, partly because Biden had struck it.

• Trump also didn't want to appear to be negotiating an oil-for-migrants deal with Maduro, a White House official and an outside adviser told Axios. The Trump administration is trying to boost deportations of Venezuelan unauthorized immigrants as well as some with pre-existing deportation protections.
• Trump's administration is stocked with Florida Republicans who are anti-Maduro: Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, Latin American envoy Mauricio Claver-Carone and Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.
• Trump's special envoy to Venezuela, Richard Grenell, is still in talks with Maduro's regime. Grenell last month secured the release of six U.S. prisoners in Venezuela and persuaded Maduro to accept Venezuelans deported from the U.S.
• Grenell has said the U.S. doesn't want regime change in Venezuela. But other White House officials said regime change is preferred because the socialist dictator has mismanaged his country's finances, destabilizing the region by leading to the Western Hemisphere's biggest mass migration of modern times.
• "The win-win for all of us is to somehow get the dictator to give up power on a glide path of maybe two years," a Trump Latin America adviser said. "So go ahead, keep robbing your country and getting rich off socialism while everyone else gets poor. But ya gotta go."

The backstory: Chevron produces about 220,000 oil barrels daily in Venezuela, about a quarter of the country's production, according to the Miami Herald, which also reported that Palm Beach oil magnate Harry Sargeant III, was closely involved in efforts to broker a deal between Trump and Maduro.

What they're saying: Trump's decision to cancel Biden's 2022 oil deal came as a surprise to Venezuela's government and to Chevron, which under the deal was allowed to pump Venezuelan oil.

• "Chevron lobbied hard and fell hard. So did Harry," said a Republican advising the Trump White House.
• "This is just going to raise the price of oil," said another Trump Republican allied with Sargeant.
• "In reality, damage is being inflicted on the United States, its population and its companies," Delcy Rodríguez, Venezuela's vice president, said in a social media post criticizing Trump's decision.

Zoom out: The Cuban-American community dominates the politics of Miami-Dade County, the most populous in the state.

• Cuban Americans, including those in Congress, have found political common cause in the state with exiles who fled other countries because of leftist violence, oppression or dysfunction. Those include Nicaragua, Colombia and Venezuela, where Cuban intelligence services protect Maduro.
• Cuban Americans are among Trump's strongest supporters; he's frequently boasted about that.

But Trump's decision to end Temporary Protected Status for as many as 300,000 Venezuelans is deeply unpopular in Miami politics. The three Cuban-American House members oppose it, but know it's hard to change Trump's mind.

• "Helping out Maduro and Big Oil was just a bridge too far for them," said a Republican allied with the congressional members. "They're happy Trump kept his promise. At least for now."

Long-threatened tariffs on Canada and Mexico will go into effect Tuesday, as will increased levies on China, President Trump confirmed.

Why it matters: The tariffs are expected to trigger a trade war with the three largest U.S. trading partners, one that could raise prices for American consumers on a broad range of products.

Catch up quick: Canada and Mexico will each face 25% tariffs on their exports to the U.S., while Chinese exports will receive an additional 10% tariff on top of the 10% Trump already imposed earlier this year.

• The Canada and Mexico tariffs were imposed in early February but postponed for a month, pending negotiations. Trump said Monday that time was up.
• "No room left for Mexico or for Canada," Trump said in remarks at the White House.

By the numbers: Financial markets, which were already weaker on gloomy economic news tied to tariff fears, took a leg down after Trump confirmed the levies were coming.

• The S&P 500 was 2% lower in the last hour of trading, and at the lows of the day.
• The U.S. dollar surged, particularly against the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso.

Top Trump administration officials are arguing that it is misleading to include government spending in the quarterly tally of GDP.

• It sets up a clash between the administration and economists over how to calculate the broadest measure of economic activity.

The big picture: GDP statistics are calculated the way they have been for the last eight decades for good reasons — but administration officials are correct that the accounting for government spending isn't ideal.

What they're saying: "You know that governments historically have messed with GDP," Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday on Fox News Channel's "Sunday Morning Futures."

• "They count government spending as part of GDP. So I'm going to separate those two and make it transparent," he said.
• "A more accurate measure of GDP would exclude government spending," Elon Musk wrote on X on Friday. "Otherwise, you can scale GDP artificially high by spending money on things that don't make people's lives better."

State of play: GDP aims to capture the value of all economic output produced in a given time period within U.S. borders. The formula for that tally, which you may recall from introductory economics, is that GDP = consumption + investment + government spending + net exports.

• So why is government spending included in that formula? Because otherwise GDP would not fully capture the value of goods and services produced.
• When the government buys a fighter jet, or builds a road, or educates a child, it reflects the production of goods and services. So if you exclude government spending from GDP, you aren't getting a full picture of U.S. output.

Zoom in: It is true, however, that government spending is counted in GDP by simply adding in the dollars spent, without any real test of how efficiently or productively the money was used.

• "If the government buys a tank, that's GDP," Lutnick said in the TV appearance. "But paying 1,000 people to think about buying a tank is not GDP. That is wasted inefficiency, wasted money. And cutting that, while it shows in GDP, we're going to get rid of that."
• It's true, as Musk and Lutnick suggest, that if the government hired a bunch of people to twiddle their thumbs all day, it would show up as higher GDP while not making anyone better off, save perhaps the thumb-twiddlers.

Of note: The Bureau of Economic Analysis — which Lutnick now oversees — acknowledges these limitations.

• "Difficult conceptual and practical problems arise in measuring the output of governments, primarily because most of this output is not sold in the marketplace," reads the bureau's handbook for GDP and related data.
• "If possible, it would be preferable to measure actual changes in the quantity or volume of the services provided, thus allowing for changes in productivity," the document notes.

Zoom out: More conceptually, it's not the job of economic statistics to make value judgments on what individuals, businesses or governments do with their money. It's just trying to get the math right.

• You might not agree that a given government expenditure was worthwhile, but that's true of every line of GDP.

For example, if somebody orders an absurdly priced $2,000 bottle of wine at a restaurant, that counts on line 20 of the GDP report as personal consumption expenditures on food services and accommodations.

• If a movie studio spends $100 million to make a terrible movie, that shows up on line 38 of the report, as fixed investment in entertainment, literary, and artistic originals.

Lutnick suggested the GDP statistics lack transparency about how government spending is incorporated.

• In fact, the data releases make crystal clear how much government contributes to overall GDP — and data-watchers can, and regularly do, exclude government for purposes of analyzing economic trends.

By the numbers: In Q4 of last year, overall U.S. output was an annualized $29.7 trillion, of which $1.9 trillion was federal government consumption and investment spending, and another $3.2 trillion state and local governments.

• Measures of activity that exclude government spending can give a better sense of the underlying trend in the economy than the headline GDP number.
• We're partial, for example, to real final sales to private domestic purchasers, which rose at a 5.4% rate in Q4. You can find it in Table 1, line 41 of the report.

The intrigue: Interestingly, the federal government's share of GDP has been relatively low of late. It was 6.4% last year, roughly the same as during the first Trump administration and well below Cold War levels. It peaked at 18% in 1953.

• Keep in mind that while federal spending on purchases and employee salaries count in these tabulations, transfer payments don't.
• So when the government sends out Social Security checks each month, that expenditure does not count toward GDP but does show up as personal consumption expenditures once recipients spend the money.

The bottom line: There are flaws and limitations in how government GDP statistics account for government spending.

• But they are well-known, transparent and the kinds of things economy-watchers can adjust for as they wish.

President Trump will hold a meeting Monday afternoon on the next steps regarding the crisis with Ukraine, including a possible suspension of U.S. military aid, a U.S. official and a source with knowledge of the meeting told Axios.

Why it matters: Trump and his allies have been piling pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after their disastrous Oval Office meeting last week. Suspending military aid would damage Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia's invasion and further weaken Ukraine's leverage as Trump pushes for peace talks.

The latest: Trump responded on Truth Social to an AP report that Zelensky had said the end of the war was "still very, very far away," writing: "This is the worst statement that could have been made by Zelenskyy, and America will not put up with it for much longer!"

• "It is what I was saying, this guy doesn't want there to be Peace as long as he has America's backing and, Europe, in the meeting they had with Zelenskyy, stated flatly that they cannot do the job without the U.S.," Trump continued.
• "Probably not a great statement to have been made in terms of a show of strength against Russia. What are they thinking?"

The other side: Zelensky wrote on X that "it is very important that we try to make our diplomacy really substantive to end this war the soonest possible."

• "We need real peace and Ukrainians want it most because the war ruins our cities and towns. We lose our people. We need to stop the war and to guarantee security.
• "We are working together with America and our European partners and very much hope on US support on the path to peace. Peace is needed as soon as possible."

Driving the news: That exchange seems to set the tone for Monday's meeting.

• Along with Trump, Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, National security adviser Mike Waltz and other senior officials are expected to participate, the sources said.
• The White House didn't immediately respond to questions.
• The New York Times first reported about the meeting.

What they are saying: Waltz told Fox News on Monday that time is not on Zelensky's side.

• "The American people's patience is not unlimited, their wallets are not unlimited, and our stockpiles and munitions are not unlimited," Waltz said. "So the time to talk is now."
• Trump's national security adviser added that in order to fix the crisis, Zelensky needs to express regret for his public spat with the president in the Oval Office last Friday, say he is ready to sign the minerals deal and that he is ready to engage in peace talks with Russia.

Friction point: Trump has been calling for a ceasefire in Ukraine, to be followed by negotiation. But Zelensky is resistant to the idea of an unconditional ceasefire.

• The Trump-Zelensky meeting became particularly contentious after Zelensky claimed Putin had violated previous agreements and could not be trusted.
• Russia has also not advocated for a ceasefire, but Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Sunday that Trump's "rapidly changing" foreign policy "largely coincides with our vision."

Update: Trump told reporters Monday that he "hasn't even talked" until now about suspending military assistance to Ukraine. He added that Zelensky "needs to be more appreciative" towards the U.S. in order to solve the current crisis.

Editor's note: This story was updated with the comments from Trump and Zelensky.

President Trump's Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered U.S. Cyber Command to suspend offensive cyber and information operations against Russia, according to multiple reports.

Why it matters: It's the latest in a series of foreign policy reversals that appear favorable to The Kremlin, setting off alarm bells for U.S. allies, supporters of Ukraine and critics of the Trump administration.

• The directive, issued last month and first reported by the Record, is another example of the U.S.'s about-face on Moscow.

Driving the news: The suspension is only intended to last as long as negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war play out, officials told the Washington Post.

• Experts told the Post it's not unusual to halt operations during high-level talks but cautioned that the Kremlin could take advantage of the lapse.
• The Pentagon declined to comment to Axios.
• "Due to operational security concerns, we do not comment nor discuss cyber intelligence, plans, or operations," a senior defense official told Axios. "There is no greater priority to Secretary Hegseth than the safety of the Warfighter in all operations, to include the cyber domain."

The big picture: Moscow's cyber power remains a threat to critical U.S. and global infrastructure, the director of national intelligence's 2024 threat assessment concluded.

• Russia views cyber disruptions as "a foreign policy lever" to shape other countries' decisions and employ influence, the assessment stated.
• Even as Moscow prioritizes operations for its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, Russia still has the capacity to pose an "enduring global cyber threat," the assessment read.

Flashback: The U.S., at the end of 2021, sent cyber experts to Ukraine, a few months ahead of the Russian invasion.

• U.S. officials applauded the hunt-forward operation for blunting Moscow's cyber effectiveness: "Presence matters," said retired Gen. Paul Nakasone, then the chief of U.S. Cyber Command and the National Security Agency, in 2022.

Zoom in: Russia's alleged efforts to interfere in U.S. elections and amplify domestic divisions through malign influence campaigns and illicit cyber activities have prompted sanctions and legal action.

• Asked about reports that the U.S. was pausing offensive cyber operations against Moscow, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz said on CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday that a halt had not been part of discussions between Moscow and the Trump administration.
• But he added, "There will be all kinds of carrots and sticks to get this war to an end."

Go deeper: U.S. votes against UN resolution condemning Russia for Ukraine invasion

Dozens of contracts critical to the functioning of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), have either been canceled or are on their way to termination, according to a detailed affidavit filed in federal court last week.

Why it matters: The CFPB is an agency tasked with protecting people from financial fraud, but it has been gutted by the White House over the past two weeks as part of the broad purge of the federal government.

• The filing offers more detail on what may have happened.

Catch up quick: The affidavit was filed by someone calling himself Charlie Doe, who says he is a contracting officer at the agency, which is a person who negotiates, administers and terminates contracts.

• It is part of a lawsuit filed by the National Treasury Employees Union against Russell Vought, the CFPB acting director, that claims efforts to "shut down" the agency are unlawful.

Where it stands: The plaintiffs in the lawsuit were able to get the court to pause contract terminations. But that agreement will expire today, when another hearing in the case is scheduled.

• It is unclear what happens next. Doe warns that if there is no order prohibiting the termination to continue, the vast majority of these contracts will be fully terminated within the week.

Zoom in: Doe says he has worked in government for 25 years, but the past few weeks "are unlike anything I've ever seen at any agency during any change in administration."

• Agency staff were directed to cancel a total of about 174 contracts with vendors, for training of examiners who supervise banks, for handling cybersecurity, and for serving as expert witnesses in litigation.
• Canceled contracts are listed on DOGE's Wall of Receipts, and appear to also include mortgage data analytics and one for short- and long-term disability insurance services.

What they're saying: "These are the basics of what it takes to run an agency," Julie Morgan, former associate director at the CFPB, tells Axios.

Yes, but: The Trump administration, in a court filing, says it will continue to operate the CFPB and has nominated a new director.

The intrigue: Some contracts are related to maintaining the agency's much-lauded consumer complaint database, where members of the public can go to register issues they're facing with companies. It is generally viewed as one of the most popular and least controversial services the CFPB offers.

• After news got out that a contract for a complaint hotline was terminated, that agreement was reinstated. That doesn't mean the agency's complaint mechanisms are working. A different contract to maintain the complaint database remains canceled, per the affidavit.
• "There is now a backlog of thousands of complaints that haven't been forwarded to financial institutions," the affidavit says.

Between the lines: You don't need vendors or services if your agency isn't doing anything. Most employees were told earlier this month to stop their work.

• Over the past few days, the CFPB dropped at least seven lawsuits it had filed against financial institutions, alleging they had ripped off student loan borrowers, those who buy mobile homes and others.

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s move to reduce public comments on certain federal health rules injects new uncertainty into the regulatory landscape and could help him make controversial policy decisions unchecked.

Why it matters: The wonky policy statement he issued on Friday has a direct bearing on the dispute over the National Institutes of Health's research funding cap and could make it easier to impose Medicaid work rules.

State of play: The transparency policy Kennedy is undoing dates to 1971 and requires public comment for HHS rules on public property, loans, grants, public benefits or contracts.

• It layered new obligations on HHS beyond those laid out in statute, requiring the department to notify health providers, patient advocates and other stakeholders when it was making policy changes and seek their comment before finalizing plans, with minimal exceptions.

Kennedy now says the policy imposes extra requirements and is "contrary to the efficient operation of the department."

• "The department will continue to follow notice and comment rulemaking procedures in all instances in which it is required to do so by the statutory text of the [Administrative Procedure Act]," the notice says.

The broadly worded change could apply to a slew of programs including NIH grants and Medicaid policy, legal experts say.

• For example, skipping public comment could make it easier for HHS to require Medicaid recipients to work in order to receive benefits, CBS reported.
• The change does not apply to Medicare and its myriad payment rules, because that program has its own legal requirements for soliciting public comments.

What they're saying: Kennedy's move drew immediate blowback from health providers and advocates.

• "The practice, delivery, and regulation of medicine is incredibly complex," Stella Dantas, president of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, said in a statement.
• "The experiences of patients, clinicians, administrators, and other stakeholders across medicine must be taken into account in order to avoid unintended outcomes."
• Jerome Adams, President Trump's first-term surgeon general, posted on X that he saw a fundamental conflict between the policy change and calls from Trump and Kennedy supporters for the government to listen to the people.
• "Are you really for transparency?" he wrote.

Flash back: HHS tried to rescind its policy of collecting extra public comment beyond the statutory requirement in 1980, Stat reported. After significant backlash from lawmakers, HHS eventually scrapped the plan.

• Some Democratic lawmakers have started to raise alarm about Kennedy's comment policy rollback, suggesting it's aimed at stamping out opposing views.
• "Despite this clear attempt to block dissent, including from health experts, the American people will not be silenced and they will hold HHS accountable for harmful regulations," Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) said in a statement Friday.

Zoom out: NIH grant recipients sued HHS earlier this month for significantly reducing funding for research overhead and administrative costs without a public comment period.

• Friday's notice may invalidate that legal argument, though the case has other arguments to stand on, said Daniel Graham, a partner at McDermott Will & Emery and leader of their government contracts group.

What we're watching: Without advance notice, it may be harder for health organizations to plan for changes or to know if they're following federal regulations.

• And the torrent of litigation against the Trump administration's health policy changes will continue, and maybe even increase. When a policy is changed without collecting sufficient stakeholder comments, it can be challenged in court, said Dan Jarcho, a partner at law firm Alston & Bird.
• "There's a good possibility that this policy change will trigger more litigation against HHS," Jarcho said.

The number of immigrants removed from the U.S. was down during President Trump's first days in office compared to the daily average in the final weeks of Joe Biden's term, according to early numbers reviewed by Axios.

Why it matters: The data offer a mixed view of how Trump's plans to deport "millions" of unauthorized immigrants and dramatically beef up border security are playing out so far.

Zoom in: On one hand, the large drop in illegal border crossings since Trump took office has significantly reduced the number of people U.S. agents are catching at the border and designating for quick removal.

• Trump is celebrating this decline, saying in a Truth Social post Saturday, "The Invasion of our Country is OVER."

On the other hand, the administration's push to quickly remove millions of undocumented immigrants in the nation's interior has run into the reality of existing laws, limited government resources and legal challenges.

• Immigrants arrested well within the nation's interior are entitled to a court hearing in a system that's backlogged for months.

By the numbers: Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removals of immigrants who were in the country illegally declined by 6.5% during Trump's first two full weeks in office, according to the data from the ICE detention management database and collected by the nonpartisan Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC).

• From Jan. 26 to Feb. 8, the U.S. government removed from the country 693 a day on average, the TRAC analysis found.
• From Oct. 1 to Jan. 25, the period including the last days of the Biden administration, the daily average for removals was 733.

Zoom out: Daily immigrant arrests by ICE were down nearly 5% during the first week of February compared to the daily average during all of fiscal 2024 under the Biden administration.

• ICE arrested an average of 724 people a day the first eight days of February. The average number of arrests in FY 2024 was 759.

A senior White House official told Axios that overall, Trump is happy with the efforts and pace of his immigration crackdown.

• "He's happy with it, but we're not going to take our foot off the gas. It's all gas, no brakes, is what we say," the official said.

The intrigue: Tricia McLaughlin, assistant secretary at the Department of Homeland Security, told Axios that "removals aren't down" but did not provide data explaining that point of view.

• McLaughlin said about 55,000 people were removed from the U.S. by all enforcement agencies from Jan. 21 to Feb. 27.
• It appears she was referring to removals (deportations and removals of undocumented immigrants), administrative returns (migrants who withdraw applications at ports of entry or crew members on ships who arrive without visas) and enforcement returns (migrants crossing the border who are returned by ICE, the Border Patrol or another agency).
• That figure would be below the monthly average for those categories in fiscal 2024, which was about 67,700 — excluding December, for which there isn't updated data yet.
• In February alone of last year, total removals were more than 69,000 people, according to the Office of Homeland Security Statistics.

Between the lines: Trump's administration has pleaded with Congress for more funding to ramp up enforcement.

• Border czar Tom Homan has been making the rounds to law enforcement groups, in media interviews and on Capitol Hill to rally support for Trump's biggest campaign promise.

The administration has modified deals with private prison contractors CoreCivic and Geo Group to provide more detention space for arrested immigrants.

• Contractors providing technical and data services also are pitching the administration on how to better share "enforcement lifecycle" data between agencies.
• "Technology is how you supercharge President Trump's policy. Of course ICE is going to need a massive ramping up of resources, but not just legacy additives — creative and innovative solutions are key here," said one person close to the administration, who asked not to be identified because the funding debate is fluid.

What they're saying: "Everybody's caught up in the Dow Jones-ing of ICE arrest numbers — which proves very little," said Jason Houser, a former ICE chief of staff during the Biden administration.