The cuts of about 800 probationary employees at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sliced deep into the agency tasked with a range of safety missions.

Why it matters: The cuts spared "only some" specialists at its National Weather Service, according to a congressional aide speaking on condition of anonymity.

• Layoffs at NOAA, a top weather and climate agency, come as climate change causes more intense and frequent weather and climate extremes.

The big picture: By Thursday night, some Weather Service and NOAA offices were already cutting back on their services.

• A bulletin from NWS headquarters announced that staffing shortages would prevent the twice-daily weather balloon launches from Kotzebue, Alaska. These provide information on upper air conditions to fine-tune computer models that help predict the weather across the U.S.
• The NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory announced its public communications would be on "indefinite hiatus" due to staffing shortages.

Among the deepest of NOAA's cuts was to the Office of Space Commerce. It licenses commercial satellites and issues warnings to satellites to prevent them from getting too close to one another in orbit, among other national security-related tasks.

• Multiple layoffs hit the NWS' Environmental Modeling Center, which is responsible for keeping the agency's computer models operating.

Zoom in: The cuts hit workers at NOAA headquarters; NOAA's satellites division; the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, N.J.; and divisions on the oceans side of the agency.

• GFDL and the research office at NOAA both do cutting-edge climate science work, including developing computer models to project global warming.
• Sources at NOAA who spoke on the condition of anonymity told Axios about the layoffs. A spokesperson for the NWS declined to comment on personnel matters but told Axios: "We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission."

Friction point: The cuts infuriated the tight-knit weather and climate community, which depends on NOAA for raw data, forecast guidance, computer modeling, hurricane research flights and watch and warning information.

• Many meteorologists took to social media to vent their frustrations. Some warned the cuts could cost lives as severe weather season approaches.
• "The mass firing of both new hires and recently promoted senior staff within NOAA, including mission-critical and life-saving roles at the National Weather Service, is profoundly alarming," said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA, in a statement posted to X.
• "The NWS is a critical public utility, and it would be extremely difficult to rebuild if torn down. This is not, in short, an acceptable setting in which to 'move fast and break things,'" he said.

Threat level: Tom Di Liberto, a meteorologist who was laid off from his role in NOAA Communications, told Axios that the cuts to NWS in particular will be harmful.

• "We will be less prepared for the next disaster and the disaster after that," Di Liberto said. "We're asking an already short-staffed agency to deal with increasing extremes with less people. Burnout will be real."
• About 300 members of the NWS may have been affected, one source said, about 7% of the service. Even before the cuts, the NWS in particular was short-staffed.
• As of February, NOAA had about 12,000 full-time employees, according to its website.

What they're saying: Lawmakers denounced moves to lay off workers at NOAA and other Commerce agencies.

• Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) said the move threatens safety and the economy.
• "This action is a direct hit to our economy, because NOAA's specialized workforce provides products and services that support more than a third of the nation's GDP," she said in a statement.
• Cantwell is ranking member of the Senate Commerce Committee that oversees NOAA.
• Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) said in a statement Thursday, "People nationwide depend on NOAA for free, accurate forecasts, severe weather alerts, and emergency information."

Zoom out: The layoffs of probationary employees that began Thursday hit soon after cuts at the behest of Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency occurred at other climate and environment agencies.

• The layoffs have mainly hit employees with less than two years of service.
• Others who were promoted recently or transferred agencies can also be considered to be on probationary status.

The agency had used funding from the infrastructure law and Biden climate law to bolster its headcount and add more computing power.

What we're watching: How the cuts — and potentially deeper staff reductions to come — affect the accuracy and timeliness of NOAA's extreme weather warnings as well as its climate products.

It'll be a long, uncertain road from Friday's signing of the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal to development of resources and revenue that President Trump covets.

The big picture: The pact would create a joint reconstruction fund, partly used to reinvest in Ukrainian minerals, energy and infrastructure projects.

• Specifics of the U.S. stake and logistics remain to be ironed out.

Driving the news: Ukraine has deposits of graphite, lithium, rare earths, uranium, and more.

• The country's geological survey and resource ministry estimates, for instance, that it includes 6% of global graphite reserves.

Reality check: New projects have long, sometimes multidecade development timelines, even in countries that have not lost crucial infrastructure. Other hurdles in Ukraine include:

Knowledge gaps. Resources estimates are incomplete and often quite old for some commodities, analysts say.

• "[T]here is very limited data on whether Ukraine's rare earth elements and other strategic materials are commercially viable to mine," Center for Strategic and International Studies scholars write in a primer.

Security risks could impede development. Private firms will likely be wary unless they're confident that risks are tolerable.

• Up to 40% of Ukraine's overall critical mineral deposits are in areas currently under Russian occupation, Benchmark Minerals Intelligence analyst George Ingall tells the WSJ.

Extraction is just one piece of the puzzle. Access to raw materials doesn't fully achieve resource security goals when China still dominates processing and refining.

• "For a deal to really de-risk the US minerals supply chain, more infrastructure is likely needed to ensure that the newly acquired mineral ores don't flow toward Beijing," Reed Blakemore of the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center said in a post.

The bottom line: The deal could improve the icy Trump-Zelensky relationship and bolster the U.S. interest in a peaceful Ukraine. But future development remains highly speculative.

President Trump has proposed abolishing the EB-5 visa for immigrants willing to invest in the U.S., and replacing it with a "gold card" that, he said, could see enough demand to eliminate the national debt.

Why it matters: For all of Trump's debt-busting dreams, realistic demand for any such program is likely to be in the thousands of people, not the millions.

• Indeed, according to experts, when it comes to "golden visas" there could be more demand from Americans looking to emigrate than there is from non-Americans looking to immigrate.

Where it stands: The gold card is designed to replace the EB-5 investor visa, which gives out green cards in return for investment in the U.S. economy.

• The minimum cost of an EB-5 ranges from $800,000 to $1.05 million, substantially all of which takes the form of an investment and thus doesn't reduce the applicant's net worth.
• Between 2017 and 2024, an average of 8,823 EB-5s were issued per year, per the EB-5 visa data dashboard.

Between the lines: Trump's proposed gold card costs five times as much as an EB-5 — $5 million — and the money would go straight to the government, where it could help reduce the national debt.

Flashback: Both the U.K. and Australia have tried similar "golden visa" programs. Both were wound down after interest peaked at a few hundred applications per year, said London School of Economics professor Kristin Surak, author of "The Golden Passport: Global Mobility for Millionaires."

• "If it's a donation, the interest will be in the very low thousands per year," Surak told Axios.

Zoom in: Anybody with a "gold card" would be obligated to pay U.S. tax on their global income, said Atossa Araxia Abrahamian, author of "The Hidden Globe: How Wealth Hacks the World."

• That makes U.S. tax residence significantly less attractive to the global ultra-rich than most other jurisdictions.
• Besides, Abrahamian noted, the trade in golden visas from places like Portugal and Malta, both E.U. member states, has been going on for long enough that most ultra-rich people who want one already have one.

Zoom out: When it comes to the global market in golden visas, "one of the most remarkable changes in the past few years is the huge increase in interest from U.S. citizens" looking to gain residence in countries like Portugal, according to Surak.

• "People are looking to secure access to the U.S.," she said, "but U.S. citizens are also looking to hedge their bets and secure a Plan B elsewhere."

The bottom line: It's very unlikely that there would be more demand for the gold card than there is right now for the EB-5, to say nothing of enough for Trump's $50 trillion goal.

European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas told Axios in an interview on Thursday that she felt "uncomfortable" hearing President Trump and other senior U.S. official in recent weeks "repeating Russian narratives and talking points" about the war in Ukraine.

Why it matters: The former Estonian prime minister has the seemingly impossible job of managing the EU's relationship with Trump's Washington. She received an ominous signal on shortly after arriving in D.C. on Tuesday, when Secretary of State Marco Rubio canceled their meeting planned for the next morning.

Driving the news: The State Department claimed that was due to "scheduling reasons," but European diplomats think the cancellation was a political decision by the Trump administration.

• "You have to ask him why he cancelled," Kallas told Axios. She said she'd had a good meeting with Rubio at the Munich Security Conference two weeks ago and expected to meet him at the G7 next month.
• On Wednesday, Trump claimed at the top of his Cabinet meeting — with Rubio at his side — that the EU was formed "to screw" the U.S. over trade, and reiterated a threat of 25% tariffs.

The big picture: Senior Trump officials have been going after the EU on trade, circumventing it on Ukraine, and intervening in the bloc's internal politics.

• Kallas admits she's concerned the new administration is distancing itself from Europe and aligning itself with what she called "new friends."
• "The statements made towards us are quite strong. The statements regarding Russia are very friendly. It is a change," said Kallas, who has a history of hawkish rhetoric toward Russia.
• Kallas noted that the U.S. voted against its European allies at the UN this week and with countries like "North Korea, Russia, Belarus, Mali, Nicaragua and Haiti" in opposing a resolution to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

What she's saying: Kallas argued the Trump administration's engagement with Russia is giving President Vladimir Putin what he wants: international legitimacy.

• "Russia wants to be back around the international table like nothing has happened. If we allow that to happen, then we will see more wars, not only in Europe," she warned.
• Asked whether she thinks Trump is trying to divide the EU, she said it's unclear what is motivating him: "His statements regarding Europe are very strong, and the question is, why are they so strong? I mean, where is it all coming from?"

State of play: On Thursday, at the top of his meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Trump attacked the EU again.

• "We do have problems with the EU because they've tariffed us. They sue our companies. We don't like the way they're treating our people. We don't like the way they're treating our companies," he said.
• Trump also falsely claimed the U.S.-EU trade deficit was $350 billion. The deficit was $236 billion for goods in 2024, and considerably less if services are factored in. Kallas said the deficit was just 3% of all trade and thus "not a lot."

Between the lines: Kallas was representing the EU at the Munich conference this month where Vice President Vance accused European countries of blocking free speech and not respecting election results because they are afraid of their own people.

• Kallas tried to downplay the significance of Vance's comments. "I think it's more important what the Europeans do, rather than what the Americans say," she stressed.
• At the same time, she argued Vance was out of bounds to weigh in on domestic political issues, and also had his facts wrong.
• "It was very surprising. Why did he attack and say that we have a problem with freedom of expression when this is one of the fundamental values of European Union? I refuse to accept that criticism, because it's just simply not true. In the U.S. you have two parties, in the European Parliament we have eight different parliamentary groups. From the left, from the right, from the center. At the same time, in Russia, you don't have free elections and you don't have free expression," she said.

What to watch: The EU and its members states are closely following the Trump administration's dialogue with Russia and are concerned Trump and Putin will cut a deal on Ukraine behind their backs.

• "They can talk with Putin all they want, but in order for any kind of deal to be implemented, they need the Europeans, and if the Europeans or Ukrainians do not agreed to this, then any deal would not work," Kallas said.

Go next: Trump softens tone on Zelensky ahead of key meeting

After two weeks of verbal attacks, President Trump softened his tone on Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky ahead of a key meeting between the leaders Friday.

Why it matters: Zelensky will visit the White House to sign an economic cooperation deal that gives the U.S. access to Ukrainian minerals and other natural resources, such as oil and gas.

• The visit comes amid a push by the Trump administration for a ceasefire in the war between Ukraine and Russia to be followed by peace negotiations.

Catch up quick: Last week, U.S. and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia to discuss the war without inviting Ukraine to participate.

• After Zelensky complained that the U.S. has been working with Russia behind its back, Trump replied with public accusations against the Ukrainian president, falsely suggesting Ukraine started the war and that Zelensky is deeply unpopular with his own people.
• Zelensky responded by accusing Trump of living in a "disinformation space" created by the Kremlin.
• Trump fired back by calling Zelensky "a dictator without elections" — a term he never used for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Zoom in: At the top of his meeting with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer Thursday, Trump admitted his relations with Zelensky became "testy" over the last few weeks while they negotiated the minerals deal, but walked back calling him a "dictator."

• "Did I say that? I can't believe I said that. Next question," Trump said.
• Trump was later asked the same question during a press conference with Starmer and dodged it.
• "We will have a very good meeting tomorrow morning — I have a lot of respect for him," he said of Zelensky.

State of play: The efforts to launch peace talks to end the war in Ukraine were at the center of Trump's meeting with Starmer. Trump held similar discussions with French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday.

• After the meeting with Starmer, Trump said the next step is reaching a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine: "We are working on ending the war in Ukraine. It is moving along rapidly. It's either going to happen fairly soon or not at all."
• Starmer praised Trump for his diplomatic push but also stressed that any such deal should be "tough and fair" and must not serve Putin's interests.
• "We have to get it right. We have to win the peace ... it can't be peace that rewards the aggressor," he said, adding that Ukraine must help shape any such agreement.
• Starmer said the U.K. is ready to "put boots on the ground and planes in the air" as part of future security guarantees for Ukraine. Trump has endorsed the idea of a European peacekeeping force but said U.S. troops won't take part.

The international order forged after World War II is imploding, squeezed on all sides by the return of strongmen, nationalism and spheres of influence — with President Trump leading the charge.

Why it matters: Trump is openly scornful of international institutions and traditional alliances. Instead, he sees great opportunity in a world dominated by superpowers and dictated through dealmaking.

Between the lines: Trump's approach is based, according to U.S. officials, in "realism" — and the belief that "shared values," international norms and other squishy concepts can never replace "hard power."

• "The postwar global order is not just obsolete," Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared at his confirmation hearing last month. "It is now a weapon being used against us."

Where the U.S. once helped enforce global norms, such as on trade, Trump is undercutting them.

• Trump's first term posed newfound threats to 20th-century alliances and structures — NATO, the World Trade Organization, even the UN.
• A second Trump term could render them virtually obsolete.

Zoom in: The frailty of the rules-based order was exposed this week on the preeminent global stage built to support it.

• At the UN General Assembly on Monday, the U.S. voted against a resolution condemning Russia for invading Ukraine on the third anniversary of the war.
• It was the first time since 1945 that the U.S. sided with Russia — and against Europe — on a resolution related to European security, according to the BBC's James Lansdale.
• Nearly all other Western leaders see Russia as a rogue state and an aggressor. Trump sees a potential partner.

Zoom out: For Europe, which has relied on the U.S. to guarantee its security for the last eight decades, this isn't just a wakeup call: It's an existential challenge that throws the entire transatlantic alliance into question.

• Germany's conservative leader Friedrich Merz said after his election victory Sunday that his "absolute priority" is to rapidly strengthen Europe so that it can "achieve independence from the USA."
• "I would never have believed that I would have to say something like that on television," Merz admitted. "But after Donald Trump's statements last week, it is clear that the Americans ... are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe."

Trump officials have expressed open contempt toward Europe on a range of issues beyond collective defense, including trade, migration, free speech and culture.

• "The European Union was formed in order to screw the United States. That's the purpose of it, and they've done a good job of it," Trump said in the Oval Office this week as he floated 25% tariffs on EU goods.
• "There's a new sheriff in town," Vice President Vance announced in a fiery speech in Munich this month that painted globalism as the downfall of European society.

The big picture: In today's multipolar world, the U.S., Russia and China are all racing to secure their strategic interests and solidify — or expand — their spheres of influence.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin dreams of reconstituting the Soviet bloc and has tried to do so by force — invading Ukraine and meddling in elections across the Western world.
• China, an economic and military superpower under Xi Jinping, is watching Ukraine carefully as it ponders whether to invade Taiwan and cement Xi's legacy through "reunification."

Trump, meanwhile, has broken sharply with his predecessors by calling for the expansion of U.S. territory — potentially to include Canada, Greenland, the Panama Canal and even the Gaza Strip.

• He's also floated grand bargains with both Beijing and Moscow on everything from trade to nukes.
• This is great power competition in its purest form, and it's the direction that Trump — to the deep consternation of small and mid-sized countries — seems intent on taking the world.

The bottom line: What's old is new again.

• 80 years ago, three great powers — the U.S., U.K. and the Soviet Union — gathered in what is now Russian-occupied Crimea to decide the fate of a European continent ravaged by war.
• There at Yalta, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Winston Churchill and Josef Stalin set the terms for what ultimately led to the Iron Curtain, fueling the decades-long Cold War.
• "I think that's Donald Trump's mindset. It's certainly Putin's mindset. It's Xi Jinping's mindset. It's not Europe's mindset," former MI6 chief Alex Younger warned last week. "That's the world we're going into."

Vice President Vance will give a keynote address at a tech summit in Washington next month, underscoring the Trump administration's focus on artificial intelligence and advanced computing.

Why it matters: Vance, a former venture capitalist, has helped draw Silicon Valley's tech sector more closely than ever to the nation's capital.

• Vance is a laissez-faire evangelist for American tech dominance. "Excessive regulation of the AI sector could kill a transformative industry," Vance warned Europeans in a speech earlier this month.
• It's a message he'll likely drive home March 18 at the American Dynamism Summit, which is in its third year and organized by the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz.

The big picture: Tech influence in federal policy now rivals or exceeds Wall Street's, and not just because of Elon Musk's constant presence in Trump's administration.

Between the lines: Tech sector venture capitalists successfully advocated for Vance to become Trump's running mate last year. They helped fuel Trump's campaign and his inauguration with tens of millions of dollars.

Zoom out: Trump has made a slew of tech hires, many of them tied to Vance. Three days after taking office, Trump issued an executive order appointing tech entrepreneur David Sacks as the administration's "AI and Crypto Czar" to "establish United States leadership in digital financial technology."

• "A lot of founders and investors in Silicon Valley have a deep skepticism about Big Tech," Sacks told Axios in a written statement.
• "They want to innovate and create, rather than censor and consolidate," Sacks said. "The president shares that view. So does the vice president, who has a strong personal network in that world going back to his business career, which is how they can bring everybody together."

Aside from Vance, the summit's speakers include:

• Gwynne Shotwell, president & COO, SpaceX
• Christian Brose, chief strategy officer, Anduril
• Qasar Younis, cofounder & CEO, Applied Intuition
• Gen. Bryan P. Fenton, commander, U.S. Special Operations Command
• Shyam Sankar, chief technology officer, Palantir Technologies
• Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.)
• Ali Ghodsi, cofounder, president, & CEO, Databricks

The Department of Justice released more than 100 pages of documents related to Jeffrey Epstein on Thursday. The documents released by Attorney General Pam Bondi include flight logs, a redacted contact book and masseuse list and an evidence list.

Zoom out: The Trump administration is moving to release documents in a range of high-profile cases, such as the JFK assassination.

• Flashback: President Trump was himself photographed with Epstein on multiple occasions and called him a "great guy" in a 2002 interview, but has not been implicated in any of Epstein's illegal behavior and has downplayed their relationship.

Bondi is facing scrutiny as to why the documents did not include more new information and has blamed the FBI.

Epstein documents released

Zoom in: Read the documents Bondi released in the files below.

Bondi's letter to FBI director Kash Patel

Editor's note: This file has been updated with additional documents.

The human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine is having a huge impact on cervical cancer prevention among young women, a U.S. government report published Thursday suggests.

Why it matters: The CDC report shows that rates of precancerous lesions among women aged 20-24 screened for cervical cancer dropped by about 80% from 2008 to 2022. The report comes just days after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — who once called the HPV vaccine "dangerous and defective" — was confirmed as health and human services secretary.

• During questioning from senators ahead of his confirmation, Kennedy said he was divesting his financial interest in legal challenges against Gardasil, an HPV vaccine made by Merck.

By the numbers: Human papillomavirus is the most common sexually transmitted infection in the U.S. and the virus is responsible for some 10,800 cases of cervical cancer every year, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

State of play: The CDC report found drops in precancerous lesion rates in other age groups screened, falling 37% among women who were 25 to 29 years old for the same period.

• "Observed declines in cervical precancers are consistent with HPV vaccination impact and support Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommendations to vaccinate children against HPV at age 11–12 years with catch-up through age 26 years," the CDC said.
• "The data are consistent with a considerable impact from the U.S. HPV vaccination program on cervical precancers, with the largest decreases in the youngest age group for which benefit of vaccination would first be observed," it added.
• "As vaccinated women age into older age groups, declines in cervical precancers are expected."

Zoom in: The CDC noted limitations, including that cervical cancer screening numbers were estimated using claims, survey data, and ecological trends rather than individual records.

• However, the CDC said "trend analyses such as these are routinely used to evaluate the impact of vaccination programs, and no other plausible explanations for the decreases in precancers have been identified."

The bottom line: The CDC findings add to growing global evidence that the uptake vaccine is helping to cut cases of cervical cancer.

• Cancer-prevention researcher Jane Montealegre told AP the rise in uptake of the safe, effective HPV vaccine can be credited for the substantial drop in precancerous lesions.
• "This should reassure parents that they're doing the right thing in getting their children vaccinated against HPV," added Montealegre, of MD Anderson Cancer Center in Houston, Texas.

Go deeper: FDA cancels meeting to pick flu vaccine strains for next winter

Editor's note: This article has been updated with more details from the report.

Mexico extradited 29 people accused of being involved in drug cartels to the U.S. on Thursday, the Department of Justice announced.

The big picture: The move is a part of President Trump's vow to crack down on cartels for what he called in an executive order a "campaign of violence and terror" that saw him designate eight drug cartels as global terrorist organizations last week.

Driving the news: The 29 people taken in U.S. custody Thursday face charges in various districts relating to racketeering, drug-trafficking, murder, illegal use of firearms, money laundering and other crimes, per the DOJ.

• They include leaders and managers of drug cartels recently designated as "Foreign Terrorist Organizations" and "Specially Designated Global Terrorists," like the Sinaloa Cartel.
• Among them is infamous drug lord Rafael Caro Quintero, who was wanted in the U.S. for allegedly being involved in the kidnapping and killing of an undercover DEA agent.
• "These defendants are collectively alleged to have been responsible for the importation into the United States of massive quantities of poison, including cocaine, methamphetamine, fentanyl, and heroin, as well as associated acts of violence," the DOJ said.

What they're saying: "As President Trump has made clear, cartels are terrorist groups, and this Department of Justice is devoted to destroying cartels and transnational gangs," Attorney General Pam Bondi said in a statement.

Go deeper: Who are the Latin American cartels the U.S. labeled as terrorist organizations

Elon Musk called Thursday for retired air traffic controllers to consider returning to work amid staffing shortages — but a federal law means doing so isn't so simple.

The big picture: Hiring shortages have long plagued air traffic controllers in already stressful roles overseeing critical airspace, but the job is under more scrutiny following a deadly midair collision at Reagan National Airport and several other close calls between aircraft at other U.S. airports.

• "There is a shortage of top notch air traffic controllers," Musk posted on X Thursday. "If you have retired, but are open to returning to work, please consider doing so."

Context: Despite Musk's request, U.S. law requires that air traffic controllers retire by "the last day of the month" in which they turn 56. The Transportation secretary can exempt controllers "having exceptional skills and experience" from automatic separation — but only until that person is 61.

• Air traffic controllers must also pass annual medical examinations with strict physical requirements, like having 20/20 vision, sufficient hearing and proper blood pressure levels.

Driving the news: Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy on Thursday announced a plan to "supercharge" controller hiring that would shave steps off the hiring process and increase starting salaries.

Catch up quick: Duffy said in an interview on Fox News earlier this month that he plans to "make an offer" to air traffic controllers to let them stay longer, past the mandatory retirement age of 56.

• But the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, the union that represents the country's air traffic controllers, told Flying Magazine Duffy's suggestion is not the answer to filling thousands of shortages.
• "The solution to the ATC staffing crisis is a long-term commitment to hiring and training and the retention of the experience of all the highly skilled, highly trained air traffic controllers," the union said, noting in the next year, just dozens of air traffic controllers across 35 facilities will reach 56.

Zoom out: The Federal Aviation Administration has tried to bolster recruitment efforts amid ongoing staffing and retention issues, but applying to be a controller and becoming one are two very different things.

• It's a long, strenuous training process that can take up to three years, according to a 2023 inspector general report. And given the mandatory retirement age, the FAA must grapple with constant attrition.
• On top of that, the Trump administration's upheaval of the federal government and deep cuts could further complicate recruitment, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick notes.

Catch up quick: Hundreds of FAA employees were fired earlier this month amid the large-scale reductions that have rocked the federal workforce.

• But Duffy clarified that "[z]ero air traffic controllers and critical safety personnel" were let go.

Go deeper: Air traffic controllers union hits back at Trump DEI comments

Editor's note: This story has been updated with a plan to increase starting salaries.

President Trump and Elon Musk's campaign to shrink the federal government will be felt far outside the nation's capital — in deep red states as well as blue.

Why it matters: Some GOP lawmakers are already hearing from constituents and raising the alarm about the haphazard way federal employees are getting canned.

Zoom in: Federal civilian jobs make up 21% of all nonfarm employment in Washington, D.C. — far more than any state, according to government data analyzed by Pew Research Center.

• The cuts will undoubtedly affect D.C., but more than 80% of federal workers live outside of the metro area, according to Partnership for Public Service.
• Of the 10 states with the greatest percentage of federal employment, six voted for President Trump and five voted for then-Vice President Harris. (Maine and Utah are tied for 10th.)
• Alaska has the fourth-highest share of federal workers. Republican Lisa Murkowski, one of the state's senators, has been outspoken about her concerns with DOGE.

Zoom out: When looking at the total number of federal workers, Washington, D.C., has the most overall, at 162,000. When looking by state, California has the most, with more than 147,000 as of last March, per Pew's data.

• California is followed by Virginia, Maryland, Texas and Florida.
• Some federal workers are also in U.S. territories or overseas. Roughly 270,000 workers are not counted as they have their locations masked for security purposes, mostly in the intelligence space.

OpenAI on Thursday released an early version of GPT-4.5, a significant update to the large language model underlying ChatGPT that OpenAI says will be better at recognizing patterns and drawing connections.

Why it matters: The release marks the next evolution of OpenAI's flagship model lineage that has been an industry front-runner since the start of the generative-AI boom.

Driving the news: This is OpenAI's largest model yet — though the company declined to offer details about its size or the computing resources it took to train it.

• GPT-4.5 should hallucinate less, follow instructions better and deliver interactions that feel more natural.
• The "research preview" version of GPT 4.5 that was released Thursday supports real-time search and image and file uploads but not voice mode, video or screen sharing.
• GPT-4.5 will be made available starting today for subscribers of the $200-per-month ChatGPT Pro and next week for other paid subscribers, including the $20-per-month ChatGPT Plus service. It's also being made available to those who pay to use OpenAI's API.

Yes, but: OpenAI noted that because it is a larger model, GPT-4.5 is more expensive to deliver.

• "GPT‑4.5 is a very large and compute-intensive model, making it more expensive⁠ than and not a replacement for GPT‑4o," it said.

What they're saying: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman wrote in a post on X, "Good news: it is the first model that feels like talking to a thoughtful person to me... this isn't a reasoning model and won't crush benchmarks. It's a different kind of intelligence and there's a magic to it I haven't felt before."

Between the lines: Until last year, much of the progress in large language models came from increasing the size of the underlying model and the amount of data used to train it.

• But that approach, known as "unsupervised learning" or "pretraining," has begun to offer diminishing returns. So the focus has switched to "reasoning" — that is, letting models take more time and use more computing resources at the time of a query to deliver a better answer.

GPT-4.5 represents OpenAI's first major move in some time at improving its AI using the former approach, scaling up the pretraining phase.

• OpenAI says the result is that GPT-4.5 has more and broader world knowledge and should have increased reliability.

What they're saying: "We're sharing GPT‑4.5 as a research preview to better understand its strengths and limitations," OpenAI said in a blog post. "We're still exploring what it's capable of and are eager to see how people use it in ways we might not have expected."

What's next: OpenAI hinted it will add reasoning improvements on top of GPT-4.5.

• The company's "roadmap" announcement earlier this month, pointing the way toward the eventual release of GPT-5, called 4.5 "our last non-chain-of-thought model."
• "We believe reasoning will be a core capability of future models, and that the two approaches to scaling — pre-training and reasoning — will complement each other," OpenAI said. "As models like GPT‑4.5 become smarter and more knowledgeable through pre-training, they will serve as an even stronger foundation for reasoning and tool-using agents."

House Republicans notched a major legislative victory this week when they passed their budget resolution. Now comes the hard part: Crafting a fiscal package that doesn't doom them in the 2026 election.

Why it matters: Some Republicans already see signs that the backlash to the Trump administration's "efficiency" efforts is spilling over into opposition to their legislative plans.

• One Republican moderate, speaking on the condition of anonymity to give candid thoughts about political concerns surrounding their party's marquee legislation, told Axios: "It could be trouble."
• "We saw what happened in 2018," the lawmaker said, referring to the midterm year in which voter anger over the GOP's legislative efforts helped Democrats flip more than 40 House seats.

Driving the news: The House voted Tuesday to adopt House Republicans' budget resolution, with all but one House Republican voting in favor of the measure and every Democrat opposing it.

• The resolution — a first step toward the hulking budget reconciliation bill Republicans hope to pass — allows $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, offset by $2 trillion in spending cuts.
• The vote came after a tortured process in which House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) strained to bring together right-wing hardliners who want greater spending cuts and centrists fearful of cuts to programs like Medicaid.

State of play: After the vote, some vulnerable Republicans were quick to distance themselves from the notion that the budget measure does anything more than provide a conceptual framework for the final bill.

• "Last night's vote was just a procedural step to start federal budget negotiations and does NOT change any current laws," Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.) said in a strident statement Wednesday morning.
• Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.), in a CNN interview, insisted there is "zero mention of cutting Medicaid" in the budget resolution — even as it calls for the Energy and Commerce Committee to seek $880 billion in cuts, some of which will likely have to come from Medicaid.

Between the lines: Republicans have been barraged the last week and a half by angry constituents at town halls and protests outside their district offices complaining about DOGE's layoffs and cuts to federal programs.

• While DOGE has been the primary target of that voter blowback, House Republicans say they have also faced plenty of flack over the prospective benefit cuts in the GOP's fiscal package.
• "Most of the concern now is over ... DOGE," said a second House Republican who spoke anonymously, "but there's also, maybe not too far behind that, the message that they are trying to get across on reconciliation."

Zoom in: Despite voting for the budget measure, moderate and swing-district House Republicans told Axios they are drawing clear red lines on what they will support in a final package.

• "If that doesn't match with what our constituents and our district is looking for, then we won't be voting for that product," said a third House Republican.
• A fourth told Axios: "I have told my leadership ... there are scores of Republicans who don't want to go further [on Medicaid] than requiring work for able-bodied adults, getting the illegals off and rooting out waste, fraud and abuse."
• "If it goes further than that," they said, "the bill is probably dead."

Yes, but: Conservatives are equally emphatic the bill must include substantial enough cuts to Medicaid to offset the increases in spending — creating a seemingly unworkable dilemma for Johnson.

• Insufficiently deep Medicaid cuts are "probably a nonstarter," said Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.).
• Burlison went as far as to say Republicans "should cut more" than the budget provides for, telling Axios: "I just had people in my office say, 'You didn't cut enough.'"

What to watch: Democrats are eager to exploit Republicans' struggles as the process of crafting the final package begins.

• "Health care's gone for everyone ... we just won back the House," exulted Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) coming out of the budget vote on Tuesday.
• Democrats' House Majority PAC is circulating a memo on the vote, first shared with Axios, titled: "House Republicans Ignore Constituents, Vote For Trump-Musk Agenda."

A federal judge ordered the Office of Personnel Management on Thursday to revoke instructions to fire probationary government workers across several agencies.

The big picture: The ruling from U.S. District Judge William Alsup, which found that the firings were likely illegal, poses one of the largest hurdles yet to President Trump's goal of shrinking the federal workforce.

Driving the news: Alsup instructed OPM to rescind the Jan. 20 memo and Feb. 14 email that directed government agencies, like the Department of Defense and the Park Service, to identify which employees should be terminated.

• Alsup said in San Francisco federal court that "Congress has given the authority to hire and fire to the agencies themselves," per the Washington Post. "The Department of Defense, for example, has statutory authority to hire and fire," he continued.
• "The Office of Personnel Management does not have any authority whatsoever under any statute in the history of the universe to hire and fire employees at another agency," he added. "They can hire and fire their own employees."

Zoom in: The ruling comes in response to a lawsuit filed by unions and advocacy organizations, spearhead by the American Federation of Government Employees, which represents federal workers.

• They argued OPM broke the law in ordering agencies to terminate all probationary employees.
• "OPM, the federal agency charged with implementing this nation's employment laws, in one fell swoop has perpetrated one of the most massive employment frauds in the history of this country, telling tens of thousands of workers that they are being fired for performance reasons, when they most certainly were not," attorneys for the unions said in a court filing.

What they're saying: "We know this decision is just a first step, but it gives federal employees a respite," said Lee Saunders, president of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME), one of the suit's plaintiffs, in a statement.

• "While they work to protect public health and safety, federal workers have faced constant harassment from unelected billionaires and anti-union extremists whose only goal is to give themselves massive tax breaks at the expense of working people," Saunders added.
• "We will continue to move this case forward with our partners until federal workers are protected against these baseless terminations."
• The White House and OPM did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening.

More from Axios:

• Trump administration ordered to reinstate 6 fired federal workers
• White House orders agencies to prepare for large-scale firings
• Trump: Federal employees who didn't respond to Musk email are on firing "bubble"

Editor's note: This is a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.

The Trump administration gave an exclusive briefing Thursday to more than a dozen conservative influencers about files it plans to make public about the late financier and child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Why it matters: The meeting illustrated how the Trump administration is circumventing the mainstream media and instead working with pro-MAGA social media figures to release information.

Zoom in: Rogan O'Handley (better known on X as "DC Draino") posted Thursday afternoon that he had met in the Oval Office with President Trump, Vice President Vance and Attorney General Pam Bondi — and had been given a "binder copy of the Epstein files."

• "This is the most transparent administration in American history," O'Handley wrote.
• He attached a picture of himself and other influencers smiling and holding up white binders titled "The Epstein Files: Phase 1." It was not clear what the binders contained.

Zoom out: Conservative influencers have long been fixated on Epstein, who died in prison in 2019 while facing federal charges of child sex trafficking.

• Many influencers have expressed doubt on the official medical examiner findings that Epstein — who through the years had associated with a wide range of political figures and celebrities — died by suicide.

Other social media figures present at Thursday's briefing included Collin Rugg, Isabel Brown and conservative activist Scott Presler, a person familiar with the event told Axios. Jack Posobiec, another pro-Trump influencer, also took to X to discuss the Epstein files.

• The influencers also met with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt and border czar Tom Homan.
• The White House's push to include more conservative and non-mainstream outlets also has included inviting their influencers and correspondents into routine press briefings.
• This week the administration took control of the daily press pool from the White House Correspondents' Association, saying it wanted to open up pool opportunities to more outlets.

This story has been updated with news of the administration briefing the influencers on the Epstein files.

The Commerce Department has laid off hundreds of NOAA employees, many with specialized skills who work at one of the world's top climate science and weather forecasting agencies.

Why it matters: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is responsible for providing weather watches and warnings, monitoring and studying Earth's climate, as well as operating weather satellites and protecting marine life.

• The layoffs of probationary employees that began Thursday hit soon after cuts at the behest of Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency occurred at other climate and environment agencies.

The big picture: NOAA's missions require staff to work around the clock to monitor dangerous weather, earthquakes that could cause tsunamis, and other hazards.

• In recent weeks, NOAA's National Weather Service has issued warnings for deadly flooding in Kentucky, heavy snow, frigid temperatures and other hazards across the country.
• While NOAA had pushed for public safety exemptions from the layoffs for NWS meteorologists, not all were granted. A congressional aide reported hearing that "some" at NWS were spared but "not many."

The layoffs follow moves at other agencies across the government and are hitting employees with less than two years of service.

• Others who were promoted recently or transferred agencies can also be considered to be on probationary status.
• Sources who spoke on condition of anonymity told Axios about the layoffs.
• The cuts hit workers at NOAA headquarters, NOAA's satellites division, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., parts of the NWS, the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, as well as divisions on the oceans side of the agency.
• Probationary employees and some supervisors in the Office of Space Commerce were let go too.

What they're saying: Lawmakers have denounced moves to lay off workers at NOAA and other Commerce agencies.

• Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) said the move threatens safety and the economy. "This action is a direct hit to our economy, because NOAA's specialized workforce provides products and services that support more than a third of the nation's GDP," she said in a statement.
• Cantwell is the ranking member of the Senate Commerce Committee that oversees NOAA.
• Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) said in a statement Thursday, "People nationwide depend on NOAA for free, accurate forecasts, severe weather alerts, and emergency information."

Even before the layoffs, the NWS in particular was short-staffed. It isn't yet clear precisely how many forecasters and supervisors have been impacted by the cuts.

The agency had used funding from the infrastructure law and Biden climate law to bolster staffing and add more computing power to improve its weather forecast models.

• In the days leading up to the NOAA cuts, weather broadcasters and other meteorologists spoke out in favor of the agency on social media, noting its crucial role in providing accurate weather data and warnings.

Zoom out: The NOAA layoffs come amid thousands of layoffs at other climate-related agencies, including the EPA, Energy Department, Department of Agriculture and the Interior Department.

• The Interior Department layoffs include significant cuts to the National Parks Service, Bureau of Land Management, and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
• The environmental group Center for Biological Diversity put the cuts at Interior as 4% of the overall department.

The intrigue: The layoffs of probationary employees with less than one to two years of service is depriving the agency of some younger employees just as older individuals have taken the government's "Fork in the Road" buyout offer.

• The downsizing is in line with similar moves across the government.

What's next: Federal agencies, including NOAA, are expected to undergo significant further cuts in the coming months as the Trump administration moves swiftly to reduce the size of the federal government.

• The entity leading the charge on this front has been billionaire Musk's DOGE, which visited NOAA's offices and gained access to some of its IT systems.
• NOAA has reportedly been asked to prepare for shaving off up to one-third of its budget, which could disrupt core functions such as weather forecasting, climate data gathering and research.

Editor's note: This story was updated with additional reporting on where specific cutbacks occurred at NOAA and with comments from Rep. Jared Huffman.

Go deeper:

Cuts drain federal government of technical expertise

NOAA told to search grant programs for climate-related terms

Scoop: Trump nominates Neil Jacobs to head NOAA

They're mere tremors at this point, not an earthquake. But worries about the outlook for U.S. economic growth are starting to mount.

Why it matters: On-again, off-again tariffs on major trading partners have added uncertainty to the business outlook, making hiring and investment decisions more complex.

• Consumers whose incomes depend on the federal government — whether as employees, contractors or benefit recipients — face the brunt of Trump administration cutbacks. This risk could make them more cautious in their spending.

State of play: Evidence these forces will restrain overall growth is only being seen in soft data so far — surveys of business and consumer sentiment, for example. The hard data shows little evidence of deterioration in spending, investment or hiring.

• But new growth worries have coincided with a steep drop in Treasury yields since the start of the year, which tends to reflect bond investors' growth expectations.

What they're saying: "With 3 million federal employees potentially worrying about their jobs and 6 million federal contractors worrying about their jobs, the risks are rising that households may begin to hold back purchases of cars, computers, washers, dryers, vacation travel plans, etc.," wrote Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, in a note out Thursday morning.

• "We remain bullish on the economic outlook, but we are very carefully watching the incoming data for signs if this is an inflection point for the business cycle," he added.

Kansas City Fed president Jeff Schmid said in a speech Thursday morning that "discussions with contacts in my district, as well as some recent data, suggest that elevated uncertainty might weigh on growth."

• "This presents the possibility that the Fed could have to balance inflation risks against growth concerns."

Of note: Clients of one major bank are asking if it's time to think about using the word "recession" again.

• "As US data soften, clients have started asking us about the prospect of a US recession," wrote Barclays' Ajay Rajadhyaksha and Marc Giannoni in a note Wednesday. "We think the odds are still low, but have clearly risen."
• "A US recession remains improbable, but is no longer unthinkable in the coming quarters," they added.

Reality check: Over the last few years, amid Fed rate hikes and geopolitical strife, predictions of a major slowdown or recession have repeatedly been wrong.

• The new administration's policies also may be creating tailwinds from deregulation and the prospect of tax cuts.

The bottom line: The U.S. economy is a mighty tanker ship, almost always moving forward. But the number of warning signs that it could be pushed off-course is rising.

Investors are questioning whether Tesla's recently weakened stock and slipping sales are due to CEO Elon Musk's political involvement and online presence.

Why it matters: A vocal CEO can cast a halo or dark cloud over the company they lead, impacting their ability to attract customers, employees and investors.

Zoom in: Musk has generated endless press coverage and social media attention as the owner of X and leader of the Trump administration's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

• More than 300,000 media stories have been written about Musk and his DOGE activities since Jan. 1, according to Muck Rack data.
• Also since the start of the year, stories mentioning Musk and DOGE have had a readership of more than 387 million, with most of the spikes around legal proceedings and budget cut recommendations, per Memo data shared with Axios.

The big picture: CEOs across industries have become more proactive about communication — whether by embracing community engagement across social channels, modernizing earnings reports or conducting more personal, nontraditional media interviews.

State of play: Musk's political activities have triggered a partisan divide regarding consumers' views of Tesla.

• Republican favorability of Tesla hit an all-time high this month, while Democratic favorability dropped to an all-time low. This strongly suggests Musk's Trump ties are influencing consumer sentiment across party lines, per Morning Consult Intelligence data.

By the numbers: 49% of Americans hold negative views of Musk and 32% of U.S. buyers "would not consider" buying a Tesla, up from 27% a year ago, per Morning Consult.

• Repeat Tesla buyers in blue states dropped from 72% in 2023 to 65% in 2024, according to CNN.
• Meanwhile, Tesla sales are down 45% year over year in Europe and 15% year over year in China, per a recent Barron's report.

Reality check: Increased competition and macroeconomics could also be playing a part in the EV maker's tumbling sales numbers.

💭 Thought bubble from Axios' auto expert Joann Muller and energy reporter Ben Geman: Tesla has grown up and now faces the same trials as legacy automakers.

• What is unusual is bumper stickers on your customers' cars that say things like "Anti-Elon Tesla Club." One has to wonder what Musk is doing to protect Tesla's brand while he's busy attacking Washington's bureaucracy.

What they're saying: "I am completely convinced that the CEO's reputation goes along with the success of the company," says Paul Argenti, a communications professor at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College. "A well-respected CEO allows you to have a stronger management team, a clear strategic vision for the organization and they significantly influence how the company is perceived. There's no question about that."

• "It's really important to understand just how critical that senior person is as the spokesperson for the organization, the person who is responsible for and associated with the strategy of the company, and the symbol for how the company is going to perform."

Yes, but: A company's brand equity shouldn't be solely tied to one individual executive, says Argenti.

• "You don't want the CEO to be the only source of brand equity for the company," he says. "That's a disaster, and we've seen that happen before with examples like Elon Musk, Steve Jobs or Martha Stewart."
• Tesla did not return Axios' request for comment.

What to watch: All CEOs are tasked with sharing their company's transformation stories, ensuring confidence and providing stability during these uncertain times.

• The power of strategic communications could come into play for those individual CEOs leading corporate turnarounds — such as Brian Niccol at Starbucks, Kelly Ortberg at Boeing and Gil West at Hertz.

More on Axios: Tesla sales fell in 2024, missing Elon Musk's EV growth target

Leading a federal agency is an around-the-clock, full-time job, but several top Trump administration officials have picked up side hustles: leading other federal agencies at the same time.

Why it matters: At least four officials have juggled leadership posts at multiple agencies or organizations at once. Several of those have also been targeted for deep budget and staffing cuts at the direction of the White House and its Department of Government Efficiency.

• The trend serves as another example of how Trump 2.0 has re-shuffled the federal bureaucracy.

State of play: While it's not rare for acting officials to fill posts during the Senate confirmation process, Trump's approach has broken with past precedent, said Jenny Mattingley, the nonpartisan Partnership for Public Service's vice president of government affairs.

• "Dual-hatting," as she calls it, does sometimes occur in presidential administrations, Mattingley told Axios.

Yes, but: "Particularly at the beginning of an administration, you have acting officials who are in that agency — not across multiple heads of agencies," she said.

• "Being triple-hatted makes it really hard to get in and actually see the nuts and bolts" of what an agency does, Mattingley said.
• Trump's nominees have moved "fairly quickly" through the Senate, underlining the fact that the arrangements "appears to be more of an intentional choice," she added.

Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, National Archivist and head of USAID

Marco Rubio is balancing three different posts:

• He was easily confirmed as the Secretary of State, a role that's seen him travel across Latin America, engage in talks over ending the Russia-Ukraine war and navigate a fragile Middle East ceasefire.
• At the same time, he also took on the title of acting director of the U.S. Agency for International Development. That change coincided with the dramatic DOGE-led dissection of the humanitarian aid organization. Rubio said at the time that the administration had "no choice but to bring this thing under control."
• While traversing the globe, Rubio is also serving as the acting archivist of the National Archives and Records Administration, an independent agency Trump has long disliked after it alerted to the Justice Department of his alleged mishandling of classified documents. Trump fired the previous head archivist this month.
• Trump did, however, appoint Jim Byron, the the president and CEO of the Richard Nixon Foundation, to handle the "day-to-day" needs at the National Archives.

One stunning stat: Based on historical staffing levels, that would mean Rubio is overseeing a combined 90,000 employees across three agencies before factoring in DOGE's mass layoffs.

Kash Patel, running the FBI and ATF

FBI Director Kash Patel, who was narrowly confirmed by the Senate in late February, is to many experts and critics a controversial pick for the main job he was nominated to do.

• But he was also tapped to lead another federal law enforcement agency: He sworn in Monday as the acting director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, the Associated Press reported.
• The White House, in a fact sheet on Trump's executive order directing a review of second amendment infringements, argued the Biden administration had "weaponized" the ATF through regulations.
• That means Patel would concurrently be overseeing the 5,000-plus-person ATF workforce and the 38,000 people who work for the FBI.
• It's unclear what the administration plans to do with the agency after the unprecedented move of placing the FBI director at its helm.

Russ Vought, Trump's budget chief and consumer protection head

Russ Vought, Trump's budget chief, is leading several of the White House's key initiatives chipping away at the federal government.

• In doing so, he also reportedly took over as acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the financial watchdog that the White House railed against as a "woke, weaponized arm of the bureaucracy."
• Trump fired former CFPB leader Rohit Chopra, cutting short his term that was not supposed to end until next year.
• As acting director, Vought issued directives earlier this month freezing much of the agency's work — though the administration said in a court filing Monday that there "will continue to be a CFPB."

Zoom out: Trump earlier this month nominated Jonathan McKernan to take the reins from Vought, so his tenure at the agency may be short-lived.

• McKernan is set to testify Thursday before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs.
• Counting Chopra, McKernan —if confirmed — would be the fourth person in the post since Trump took office: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was first designated as acting CFPB director before Vought filled the slot.
• CFPB's website, which on its homepage displays an error code, still has Bessent listed as acting director.

Go deeper: Behind the Curtain: Trump's boundary-busting provocations