As the battle over Elon Musk's DOGE-directed cuts to federal medical research continues, institutions already are freezing hiring, cutting back on the number of Ph.D. students they'll accept and making other contingencies.

Why it matters: Capping how much the National Institutes of Health covers the schools' overhead costs could lead to billions of dollars in cuts to scientific research funding and widespread economic fallout.

Driving the news: An economic analysis by software company Implan on Tuesday estimates proposed cuts could lead to a loss of $6.1 billion in the nation's gross domestic product, a $4.6 billion reduction in labor income and result in the loss of more than 46,000 jobs nationwide.

• This includes the direct effects of the research itself, with 17,000 expected job cuts, but also indirect effects through a slowing of business-to-business spending in the R&D supply chain that could support 14,000 more jobs.

What they're saying: "It's not just researchers that are affected. It's not just universities that are affected," said Bjorn Markeson, academic divisional director and economist at Implan.

• "There's going to be impacts on real estate ... there's going to be impacts on legal services. There's going to be impacts on services to buildings, office, administration."

Between the lines: While federal courts have temporarily frozen plans to slash the rate NIH pays for "indirect costs" and the administration's temporary "pause" on federally funded grants and loans, universities are already feeling real pain.

• Institutions have also been reporting delays of NIH grant reviews, in what some legal scholars call a "backdoor" approach to freezing funding, Nature reported.

NIH cuts are most immediately hitting graduate education programs.

• The University of Pennsylvania said it would reduce graduate admissions, pointing in part to the NIH cuts, reported The Daily Pennsylvanian.
• The University of Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt University and University of Southern California are among institutions that temporarily paused Ph.D. program admissions but have since resumed the process, per Inside Higher Ed.
• Meanwhile, Columbia's medical school and MIT, among others, have frozen hiring.

Zoom in: Maryland is among the states that could be hit hardest, with potential annual losses exceeding $2 billion due to Johns Hopkins University and its robust research corridor, Terry Clower, director of the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University, told Axios.

• By his calculations, there could be 2,000 to 3,000 jobs eliminated in the state as the result of the new NIH policy on administrative and overhead costs.
• "Losing 3,000 jobs across the state would not devastate the economy, but it's an add-on effect to everything else that's going on now," Clower said.
• "Taking into account job losses elsewhere in the federal government ... it's a hard hit to the local economy," he said, noting the Maryland suburbs of D.C. have not seen job growth rebound to their pre-pandemic levels.

The cuts can have outsized impacts within states that receive much less, pointed out officials at Dartmouth College.

• Dartmouth has about 1,300 employees funded in part by its roughly $97 million in federal NIH grants. Dartmouth Health has another 400 employees whose jobs are funded at least in part by its $18 million in NIH grants.
• "In New Hampshire, that's a lot of people," said Steven Bernstein, chief research officer of Dartmouth Hitchcock Medical Center.
• Officials said they are not discussing layoffs or other changes. But "medium term and longer term, if the research portfolio shrinks, those job opportunities are going to decline," said Dean Madden, vice provost for research at Dartmouth College.

What we're watching: U.S. District Judge Angel Kelley is still considering whether the cut to the funding of indirect costs is unlawful.

The bottom line: The future of research talent and scientific advancements could be at stake with these looming cuts.

• "It will impact our ability to to train the next generation of scientists, because there will be less funding available to help support students while they're in their studies," Clower said. "There will be knock-on effects in the economy in future years."
• "What we can't measure is what those losses would mean to discovery of new medications, new drugs, new medical procedures," he said.

Every quarter since ChatGPT's debut, Nvidia's earnings release has tied a knot in Silicon Valley's gut as investors wait for the numbers that will prolong the AI boom — or end it.

Why it matters: It's risky when any industry hangs so much of its hopes on one company's results, and Nvidia's enviable record of beating expectations means the slightest faltering could trigger a rout.

Driving the news: Today, markets await the chipmaker's first report since the arrival of DeepSeek's latest model last month cast a brief shadow over Nvidia's glow.

• DeepSeek rivaled the industry's most advanced AI models in a cheaply trained open-source package.
• That suggested the long-term demand for Nvidia's powerful but costly chips might be lower than projected.

Yes, but: Tech giants and startups in the U.S. and around the globe continue to pour hundreds of billions into AI infrastructure, new model training and data centers.

• All those projects keep orders flowing to Nvidia, which not only continues to lead the market for high-performing chips but also controls an ecosystem of supporting software tools that help AI makers optimize their products.

The big picture: There are three broader reasons to think that Nvidia could disappoint investors, if not this week then eventually.

1. The market is over-concentrated.

• The S&P 500's incredible run over the last two years has been heavily tied to the so-called Magnificent 7 stocks, led by Nvidia. But as a result, those gains are more heavily concentrated in that small handful of stocks than they've been in decades.
• The Magnificent 7 accounted for more than half of the S&P's gains in 2023 and 2024, and now makes up more than 30% of the index's total market capitalization.
• By one key metric, the market was more concentrated in late 2024 than ever before — including during the dot-com bubble.

2. Demand for AI remains elusive.

• Nvidia's astonishing market ride rests on the assumption that AI will be the tech industry's next universal platform and that demand for AI products and services will be massive.
• So far, although ChatGPT and its rivals show healthy growth in usage, businesses and consumers haven't always embraced the tools. Real-world applications beyond a few specialized fields like software programming and customer support have yet to take off.
• If that doesn't change, the AI industry — along with its leading toolmaker, Nvidia — could face a sobering correction.

3. The AI chip market is uniquely vulnerable to geopolitical risk.

• That's because Nvidia only designs its chips. They're manufactured in Taiwan by TSMC.
• Taiwan has long faced the danger of an invasion or blockade by China, which has claimed the island for decades.
• Trump may have given Beijing reason to doubt he would step in to protect Taiwan. Among other remarks, Trump lamented during the campaign that Taiwan "wants protection" but "they stole our chip business."

The other side: Nvidia could keep outperforming expectations for a long time.

• A bad quarter for the company would also be a disaster for the market in the short term, but not necessarily for Nvidia's long-term outlook.
• Even if the AI bubble pops, the chipmaker would remain an incredibly valuable repository of intellectual property, design skills and research power.
• Short-term investors might take a bath, but the company would live to thrive again.

The bottom line: Silicon Valley's 75-year history has been one long cycle of booms and busts. With AI it shows every sign of continuing that pattern.

Washington, D.C., Maryland and Virginia have the highest federal wages per worker, Labor Department data shows.

Why it matters: The Trump administration's attempts to cut the government workforce is likely to hit particularly hard in places with the most federal workers, and where those workers take home the biggest paychecks.

By the numbers: Federal workers in D.C. make about $136,000 per worker, those in Maryland make about $126,000 per worker, and those in Virginia make about $111,000 per worker.

• All three areas also rank in the top five for most federal workers overall.
• D.C. has about 191,000 federal workers, Virginia has 189,000, and Maryland has 158,000.

How it works: This data comes by way of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, and reflects annual averages for 2023.

Caveat: These raw state-by-state figures don't account for varying costs of living between locations.

• $126k in Maryland doesn't go as far as it would in, say, West Virginia.

What's next: Multiple lawsuits filed by federal workers in connection with President Trump and Elon Musk's efforts to cull the government workforce are still working their way through the courts.

With the help of President Trump, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) muscled a budget package through the House — a win he claimed will give him momentum to pass "Trump's full America First agenda — not just parts of it."

Why it matters: Johnson's dream of one big, beautiful bill will live another day. But so will the reality of his razor-thin House GOP majority.

• The extraordinary evening was an early taste of the chaos to come.

Zoom in: Just before 7:30pm ET, lawmakers began filing out of the House chamber after being told votes were done for the evening. Leadership thought they had too many holdouts to risk a vote.

Just 13 minutes later lawmakers were streaming back in — the vote was on.

• "I just got a call from my office, they said 'Come back, the vote is back on,'" exclaimed a befuddled Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Pa.).
• Some lawmakers had already been long gone. Several told Axios they were at dinner. At least one was at a Capitol Hill bar. Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.) said he was "halfway home."
• "I was already in my pajamas," quipped Rep. Scott Fitzgerald (R-Wisc.). The whole dynamic was "very odd," said Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.).

Between the lines: Both parties pulled out all the stops to try and ensure their preferred outcome.

• Rep. Brittany Pettersen (D-Colo.) showed up despite giving birth less than a month ago. Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) voted despite being sick.
• Rep. Kevin Mullin (D-Calif.), who is recovering from a blood clot in his leg and a knee infection contracted from surgery, arrived to vote using a walker.
• Only Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Calif.), 77, who has missed nearly every vote since Jan. 3 as he undergoes cancer treatment, was absent.

Zoom out: Remember, this procedural bill was the easy part.

• Passing the actual bill — which could include deep cuts to Medicaid — will require Republicans of all stripes to subordinate their personal goals for the overall ambitions of the party and their president.
• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) is salivating at the opportunity to put Republicans on the record on their planned cuts, especially on social safety net programs.

What's next: Now Senate GOP Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has to decide whether he wants to accept, or try to amend, the House budget reconciliation package.

• Many of his members, including Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), want to make dramatic changes, including how Congress counts the cost of Trump's 2017 tax cuts.

Apple said Tuesday it's working to fix an iPhone bug after some users reported its automatic dictation feature briefly displays "Trump" when they say "racist" before the text-to-speech transcription software corrects itself.

The big picture: A viral TikTok video of the glitch that Apple says erroneously suggests the word "trump" when users dictate some words that also include an "r" consonant caused outrage among conservatives online who've accused Big Tech of political bias.

• The glitch underscores artificial intelligence's accuracy problems as the technology develops and as companies like Apple move to make AI a key differentiator in choosing a smartphone.

Zoom in: Apple says the glitch is sometimes occurring during initial analysis when the speech recognition models that power dictation have on occasions displayed words that contain some phonetic overlap, but then further analysis identifies the intended word.

What they're saying: "We are aware of an issue with the speech recognition model that powers Dictation and we are rolling out a fix today," an Apple spokesperson said in an emailed statement Tuesday evening.

Tulsi Gabbard, director of National Intelligence, said Tuesday more than 100 intelligence officers will be fired for taking part in sexually explicit discussions in agency chat rooms.

The big picture: Gabbard said on Fox News she "put out a directive" on Tuesday that those who took part in these chats on the National Security Agency's (NSA) "Intelink" messaging platform will also have their security clearances revoked.

Driving the news: Gabbard earlier Tuesday confirmed a report by conservative activist Christopher Rufo, who writes for City Journal, that the DNI was sending a memo directing all intelligence agencies to identify the employees who participated in the chats that included discussion on transgender identity.

• DNI spokesperson Alexa Henning said on X Tuesday that the memo was sent to "all intelligence agencies" over the chats that she described as "obscene, pornographic, and sexually explicit."
• Gabbard said on "Jesse Watters Primetime" there "are over 100 people from across the intelligence community that contributed to and participated in what is really just an egregious violation of trust."
• She added to Fox News' Jesse Watters: "They were brazen in using an NSA platform intended for professional use to conduct this kind of really, really horrific behavior."

What they're saying: The National Security Agency/Central Security Service said in a post to X Tuesday it was aware of posts that "appear to show inappropriate discussions" by intelligence personnel and investigations to "address this misuse of government systems" were ongoing.

• "Potential misuse of these platforms by a small group of individuals does not represent the community," the post said.

Undocumented immigrants age 14 or older must register and provide fingerprints or face a fine or even imprisonment under new Trump administration plans announced Tuesday.

The big picture: Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem announced the escalation in the administration's crackdown on undocumented immigrants that she vowed the administration would enforce.

Driving the news: Undocumented immigrants will from Tuesday be required to register and create an USCIS online account, per a U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services online page.

• The Department of Homeland Security will soon announce a form to complete the registration requirement, according to the post.
• The requirement applies to anyone in the U.S. for 30 days or longer.
• Once a person has registered and been fingerprinted, DHS will issue "evidence of registration," which immigrants over 18 must carry and keep with them at all times, according to USCIS.

Zoom in: Per a DHS statement, penalties will be imposed on undocumented immigrants who:

• Willfully fail to depart the U.S.
• Fail to register with the federal government and be fingerprinted.
• Fail to tell the federal government of changes to their address.

What they're saying: Noem said on Fox News' "Jesse Watters Primetime" Tuesday evening those who follow the requirements "can avoid criminal charges and fines and we will help them relocate right back to their home country."

• The program provides "them an opportunity to come back someday and to be a part of the American dream," but if they don't register, "they're breaking the federal law, which has always been in place," Noem told Fox News' "Jesse Watters.
• "We're just going to start enforcing it to make sure" the undocumented immigrants go "back home," Noem said. "And when they want to be an American, then they can come and visit us again."

Zoom out: Since President Trump declared a national emergency on the U.S.-Mexico border soon after taking office in January, his administration has unleashed sweeping limits on undocumented immigrants and asylum-seekers.

• DHS Spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin said in a statement Trump and Noem were sending a "clear message for those in our country illegally."
• McLaughlin added: "The Trump administration will enforce all our immigration laws — we will not pick and choose which laws we will enforce.  We must know who is in our country for the safety and security of our homeland and all Americans."

Go deeper: Texas, Mississippi have the most detained immigrants

A Trump administration freeze on foreign aid has left nonprofits and volunteers scrambling to fill gaps in funding that have forced layoffs, suspended services and closed doors.

The big picture: But with the future of U.S. foreign assistance uncertain following confusion-inducing stop-work orders, organizers warn that it will likely be impossible to sustain critical services with philanthropic efforts.

• The State Department last month ordered a 90-day freeze on foreign assistance in accordance with a Day 1 executive order from President Trump that called for aid to be paused pending assessments of foreign assistance programs.
• The dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development dropped a bomb on the already difficult-to-navigate quagmire, further complicated by the ongoing legal saga over the freeze.
• It has rocked foreign and U.S. contractors, stranded assistance at ports and risked livelihoods — and lives, experts told Axios.

The U.S. is the single largest humanitarian donor in the world. Though foreign assistance accounts for just around 1% of the total federal budget, that's a massive gap for crowdfunding organizations and nonprofits to fill.

Case in point: Nonprofit GlobalGiving, which works with some 6,000 nonprofit partners across 175 countries, recently launched its GlobalGiving Community Aid Fund to assist organizations on the front lines providing assistance amid the U.S. government's freeze.

• CEO Victoria Vrana told Axios that nonprofit partners in at least 75 countries have been impacted. The collateral damages range from having to halt vital services, like providing HIV treatment, to closing doors.
• But "donations can't fill the gap," Vrana stresses.

Friction point: After announcing the freeze, Secretary of State Marco Rubio later announced there would be waivers for "life-saving humanitarian assistance programs."

• But confusion persisted. And a list of exemptions obtained by Reuters showed the majority of waivers went to security and counternarcotics programs, while a limited amount went to humanitarian relief.
• Asked for comment, the White House said Trump returned to D.C. with a "mandate" to "bring about unprecedented change in our federal government to uproot waste, fraud and abuse."
• Rubio in an interview last week acknowledged the freeze has been "disruptive for some programs" but said he thinks it will ensure "every program ... serves the national interest because it makes us stronger or more prosperous or safer."

Yes, but: Even if the flow of funds is restored, organizations that have had to dismiss staff may no longer have the necessary infrastructure to actually provide aid, says Susan Appe, a University at Albany associate professor who researches government-nonprofit relationships.

• Fluctuations in aid are not a new phenomenon, she said — but this was an extreme case with no "responsible exit strategy."
• She noted there are strategies local aid partners can use to try to sustain services, like forming mergers or leaning on local philanthropy or governments to fill public service gaps. Others will have to close doors.

By the numbers: According to globalaidfreeze.com, a site that surveys nonprofits and organizations to gauge impact of the pause, 60% of 725 respondents as of Feb. 20 have had to lay off or furlough staff.

• Among nonprofit respondents, more than 21% say they have only one month of financial resources remaining, according to the site.
• "People have very little time right now," says Cheri-Leigh Erasmus, the co-CEO of Accountability Lab, one of the organizations collaborating on the freeze-tracking site. "And even a 90-day freeze — after 90 days, you don't have an organization left anymore."

What's next: The seismic shifts triggered by the halt may signal the "whole ecosystem of international aid being reshaped," Erasmus says. As actors scramble to find the most important gaps to plug, other sectors in the field may go underfunded.

• Accountability Lab has worked with organizations to identify themselves for potential mergers or strategic partnerships amid the freeze, she noted. Local governments will also likely be forced to think of ways to build resiliency to sustain services without bilateral funding support.
• "We have to try and sustain parts of an ecosystem," Erasmus said. "We're not going to be able to save every organization — that's just a reality of where we are."

Go deeper: Most USAID workers to be fired or placed on leave by late Sunday

President Trump announced Tuesday the administration plans to offer $5 million "gold cards," which grant individuals permanent U.S. residency.

The big picture: The new system would replace the existing EB-5 program — a system launched in 1990 that offers green cards to individuals who invested in the U.S. — and serve as a route to citizenship, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.

• It wasn't immediately clear whether the administration could terminate or change the existing program without congressional approval.

Driving the news: "We're going to be selling a gold card," Trump said, adding that he believes it will bolster the economy.

• "Wealthy people will be coming into our country by buying this card, they'll be wealthy and they'll be successful, and they'll be spending a lot of money and paying a lot of taxes and employing a lot of people."
• The U.S. could sell 1 million or more of the "gold cards," Trump said.

Between the lines: By potentially eliminating the EB-5 program and replacing it with the so-called "gold card," the new program would effectively let the wealthy buy their way into the U.S. without having to create jobs or build businesses.

• In that sense, it differs from many "Golden Visa" programs around the world, which usually require the purchase of real estate or some other domestic investment. Some do allow residency by charitable donation, or opening a bank account.

Zoom in: The minimum investment needed under the U.S. plan would also be one of the most expensive such programs in the world, per firms that specialize in helping arrange visa deals for the rich.

• The new offer continues an early theme of the Trump administration, which is that money is the way to dispense with the usual rules — as when he promised anyone investing $1 billion in the U.S. would get all their permits expedited.

Flashback: DHS reforming investor visa, despite last-minute Trump doubts

Editor's note: This article was updated to clarify that the EB-5 program was launched in 1990.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff said Tuesday that Israel will send a delegation to Doha or Cairo in the coming days to discuss the next steps of the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal based on principles that the U.S. has agreed to with Israel and Qatari and Egyptian mediators.

The big picture "If these talks go well, I might be going to the region on Sunday," Witkoff said at an American Jewish Committee event in Washington, D.C.

• Witkoff postponed by a few days his trip to the Middle East to discuss with Israel, Qatar and Egypt the possibility of extending the first phase of the deal, a U.S. source told Axios.
• A U.S. source said the reason for delaying Witkoff's trip is the Trump administration's diplomatic efforts on Russia-Ukraine.

Why it matters: The first phase of the hostage deal is expected to end on Saturday. Under the Gaza deal, the ceasefire will continue as long as second phase negotiations are taking place.

• If the first phase of the deal ends, the war in Gaza is likely to resume.

The latest: Hamas and Israel announced on Tuesday that they have reached an understanding that will end the crisis that erupted when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided to delay the release of 600 Palestinian prisoners last Saturday.

• The parties agreed that Hamas will return the bodies of four Israeli hostages on Wednesday night — a day ahead of the original plan.
• In return, Israel will release the 600 prisoners and several other prisoners who were supposed to be released thus week. Hamas also agreed not to conduct any public ceremony around the return of the bodies, Israeli officials said.

What they're saying: "We're hopeful that we have the proper time to finish off -- to begin phase two and finish it off and get more hostages released and move the discussion forward," Witkoff said in a Sunday interview on CNN's "State of the Union."

• The White House envoy said he believes Netanyahu is motivated to release more hostages.
• "He also wants to protect the state of Israel. And so he's got a red line. And he said what the red line is. And that is that Hamas cannot be involved in a governing body when this thing is resolved. And so I think he's trying to square the circle on both of those things," Witkoff said.

Driving the news: Netanyahu convened security consultations on Saturday about the way forward in the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal.

• Israeli officials said that despite recommendations from the heads of the security services, Netanyahu delayed the release of the 600 Palestinian prisoners on Saturday, citing Hamas violations of the deal.
• The heads of the security services told Netanyahu in the meeting that they recommend making every effort to exhaust the negotiations on the second phase of the deal or on extending its first phase, Israeli officials said.

What they're saying: The White House on Sunday expressed support for Israel's decision to delay the release of the Palestinian prisoners and said President Trump is "prepared to support Israel in whatever course of action it chooses regarding Hamas."

• "Given Hamas' barbaric treatment of the hostages, including the hideous parade of the Bibas children's coffins through the streets of Gaza, Israel's decision to delay the release of prisoners is an appropriate response," White House national security council spokesperson Brian Hughes said in a statement.

Behind the scenes: Witkoff met on Saturday in Miami with Ron Dermer, the Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs, who is leading the Israeli negotiations team. It was the second meeting between the pair in 48 hours to discuss the second phase of the hostage deal.

• An Israeli official said Witkoff wanted Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and Egyptian intelligence chief Hassan Mahmoud Rashad to also negotiate, but their schedules would not allow it.
• The Israeli official noted that the mediators did not want to speak for Hamas or negotiate for the group and therefore refrained from coming to Miami.
• "The Americans understood that the mediators did not intend to cooperate with the process that Witkoff and Dermer wanted to conduct in Miami and that if they wanted to move forward, the negotiations had to be in the region," the Israeli official said.

Witkoff told CBS' "Face the Nation" that his five-day trip will include stops in Qatar, Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional information, including the postponement of Witkoff's trip, his comments on Tuesday and Tuesday's announcement by Israel's government and Hamas.

The U.S. vote against a United Nations resolution condemning Russian aggression is becoming another tension point between President Trump and Senate Republicans.

Why it matters: Republicans are bracing to have their party's leader challenge or undercut their core assumption about foreign policy. Some still hold out hope for a war-ending deal.

• "I think we should have voted 'aye'," Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) told Axios. "Clearly, Putin's Russia is the aggressor. And the world has been aware of that for over a decade."
• It's Wicker's second rebuke of Trump this month, after he called Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's comments on Ukraine's territorial borders a "rookie mistake."

Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) called the vote "unfortunate," while Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) chose the word "shameful."

• "Refusing to acknowledge Russia as the undeniable and unprovoked aggressor is more than an unseemly moral equivalency — it reflects a gross misunderstanding of the nature of negotiations and leverage," Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said in a Monday statement.

What to watch: Other Republicans — including members of leadership — are choosing their words carefully or avoiding direct answers.

• "I don't know what's all behind that. My assumption is it's part of the negotiation right now," Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told Axios, adding, "I'm pretty clear about who I think started the war," referring to his past comments on Russia.
• "I've been very clear on the aggressors from the beginning," GOP Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) said. He did not answer directly about the U.N. vote, but said he agrees with President Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron about finding a way to end the war and "prevent additional Russian aggression."
• Known defense hawk Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) is taking a similar line. "I think Russia is the aggressor. I don't care about the U.N. resolution. I care about how this war ends and when it ends," he said.

The big picture: The U.S.' handling of the war in Ukraine has fractured the GOP since its start three years ago, with a growing isolationist wing of the party fighting against continued aid for Ukraine and a quicker end to the war.

Fresh off a week of being yelled at back home, Republicans returned to Capitol Hill suddenly pressing Elon Musk to project a kinder, friendlier face of DOGE.

Why it matters: Republican and Democratic congressional districts alike have been rattled by Musk's tactics for slashing government funding and terminating chunks of the federal workforce.

• "When you have a lot of people who are scared and a lot of people who are angry, of course you should take it seriously," said Rep. Rich McCormick (R-Ga.), one of several House Republicans who were grilled on DOGE at tense town halls last week.
• McCormick noted that Musk told Republicans to be more compassionate in 2022. "He's kind of forgotten some of that," McCormick said of Musk. "I want to be his conscience."
• Said Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.): "We can all agree on removing fraud, waste and abuse. ... Does it also mean that you remove benefits from those that need it? The answer is no."

State of play: The potential for anti-DOGE backlash was made all too real for Republicans last week, when angry constituents flooded their town halls and protested outside their offices in opposition to DOGE.

• Several House Republicans besides McCormick also faced raucous town hall audiences, while dozens of others faced protests outside of their district offices.
• Some Republicans have dismissed the sudden burst of local anti-DOGE energy as the work of liberal activist groups — but others are not so quick to shrug it off given the echoes of 2009 and 2017.

Between the lines: "It would be more helpful if some of those DOGE folks showed more sensitivity to the people who are being terminated this way ... who didn't do anything wrong," said one House Republican who was granted anonymity to speak candidly.

• "Some of that stuff is very necessary to reduce our spending, but we should show compassion for the people who are no longer getting a paycheck, and we should tighten up our messaging," the lawmaker said.
• Another House Republican vented that "a lot of people are losing their jobs, and they don't understand why."
• A third said Musk is "more liked by people in the White House than anyone here because we have to deal with the ramifications of what he says."

Zoom in: House Republicans vented about DOGE officials' tactics and lack of communication with Congress at their closed-door conference meeting Tuesday, according to multiple members in attendance.

• Members want to "communicate to the White House that there has to be a little more strategy and a little more recognition that these are people," according to the second House Republican who spoke anonymously.
• Said a fourth House Republican: "All of us are waiting to hear what's going to happen, and I'd rather not. I'd rather be told what the plan is, because we're certainly going to be asked questions about it."

Zoom in: There was also talk of holding an info session on town hall "best practices," including tips for not getting riled up by provocative activists and giving them a viral moment, the fourth lawmaker said.

• Some Republicans told Axios they are being responsive to what they have heard from constituents by pushing the administration to reinstate federal workers they think were wrongly fired.

Yes, but: Many Republicans maintained town halls and protests should be taken with a grain of salt, if not altogether discounted, because of liberal groups directing their members to show up in force.

• "There's some dissent out there, but there's a heck of a lot of support," said Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Pa.).
• Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas) told Axios: "I don't know why you'd want to hold a town hall right now. ... You know the left is going to set some people up in there just to be rabble-rousers."
• "Let's keep winning. That's it," said Nehls. "Town halls can come later."

Even the tooth fairy is pinching pennies these days.

The big picture: For the second year in a row, an annual Delta Dental survey found the tooth fairy is paying less for lost teeth than the year before.

• The average value of a single lost tooth declined by 14% from $5.84 to $5.01, according to the survey of 1,000 parents of children ages 6 to 12.
• In 2023, the value of a single lost tooth reached a record high when it was $6.23.

Yes, but: Despite the decline, the average cash gift per tooth increased 285% from 1998 when a lost tooth fetched $1.30 on average, Delta Dental said.

Value of first tooth drops

Zoom in: 33% of parents said the tooth fairy spent more on a child's first lost tooth but that value has also dropped.

• The new survey found the tooth fairy paid $6.24 down 12% from $7.09 in 2024.

Tooth fairy's 2025 rate by region

By the numbers: Lost teeth in the South had the highest value this year at $5.71, the only region to experience a year-over-year increase, the survey found.

• The West had the second highest value at $5.69 a tooth but "experienced a significant 33% drop for a lost tooth," Delta Dental said. In 2024, the West had a whopping value of $8.54.
• The Northeast average was $4.59 down from $6.87 last year. It's the first time the rate fell below $5 per tooth since 2020.
• The Midwest significantly trails the national average and had the lowest value at $3.46.

More from Axios:

• Time is running out to get a Real ID ahead of May 7 deadline
• McDonald's doubles down on breakfast with bagel sandwiches
• Wendy's hosts Girl Scout cookie sales, debuts Thin Mints Frosty

More than 1 million federal workers responded to an email asking them to document what they did last week, sent at Elon Musk's behest, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Tuesday.

Why it matters: That's only about half the federal workforce — perhaps to be expected, as many agencies told employees to ignore the email.

• The email created confusion and a bit of chaos inside agencies. Musk had said on X that workers who didn't respond would be fired, but the White House backed away from that threat on Monday.

Zoom in: "We've had more than 1 million workers who have chosen to participate in this very simple task of sending five bullet points to your direct supervisor or manager, cc'ing OPM [the Office for Personnel Management]," Leavitt said, noting that she herself had sent off her five bullet points.

• "Took me about a minute and a half."

Where it stands: Leavitt noted that asking workers to report on their accomplishments is a strategy that Musk has employed at his private companies.

• But it's often a more complicated question at the federal level — for example, for employees are often working on classified information.
• Many took exception to having to justify their labor. One trauma nurse who messaged Axios said she was insulted by the question.

In the private sector, such strategies for assessing productivity are out of fashion these days, as companies use more sophisticated measures to understand what workers are doing, as the WSJ reported Tuesday.

• Asking workers who are under threat of termination to talk about their accomplishments may not yield much in the way of useful information — they're likely to give the most rosy view possible.

Leavitt on Tuesday said the point of the email exercise "is to ensure that federal workers are not ripping off American taxpayers, that they are showing up to the office and that they are doing their jobs."

The Commerce Department will investigate whether to slap tariffs on imports of copper, the latest manufacturing component — on top of aluminum and steel — to be swept up in the Trump administration's trade crackdown.

Why it matters: The White House on Tuesday said the billions of dollars worth of annual copper imports threaten national security, given the metal's critical role in the buildout of military vehicles, aircraft and more.

What they're saying: "Tariffs can help build back our American copper industry, if necessary, and strengthen our national defense," Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in a statement given to reporters.

• "American industries depend on copper and it should be made in America. No exemptions, no exceptions."

Yes, but: The U.S. exported more copper, in dollar terms, than it imported in 2024 — a sign that the Trump administration is not just targeting materials where there is a trade imbalance.

• Last year, the U.S. exported $11 billion worth of copper, while it imported about $9.5 billion worth of copper from foreign nations, according to Commerce Department data released earlier this month.

What to watch: Trump's order on Tuesday takes no definitive action. Instead it marks the beginning of a Section 232 investigation that may (or may not) end with a recommendation to put a certain tariff rate on copper imports.

• These investigations have historically dragged on for years, but White House senior trade advisor Peter Navarro told reporters this process will move faster.
• "You will see that our new Secretary of Commerce will move in what I like to call 'Trump time,'" Navarro said, though he offered no timeline for the investigation.

The bottom line: Copper is the latest on a growing list of potential tariff targets that may or may not ultimately face import taxes.

• The uncertainty around trade policy is weighing on sentiment. Surveys by the University of Michigan and the Conference Board show consumers are worried that tariffs will push up prices.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is once again grappling with persistent right-wing defectors ahead of a key budget vote that could come as soon as Tuesday evening.

Why it matters: The vote on a budget resolution is the critical first step towards passing the massive fiscal bill that President Trump has put forth.

• "Every time we've had a big vote on the House floor, we're talking to members all the way up until the moment the vote closes," House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) said at a press conference.
• But Johnson, acknowledging the uncertainty, told reporters: "There may be a vote tonight, there may not be — stay tuned."

State of play: Several GOP lawmakers said Tuesday they remain opposed to the resolution, which would allow for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, a $4 trillion debt ceiling increase and $2 trillion in spending cuts.

• "I'm very straightfoward with my opposition," said Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), telling reporters that "a number of members have concerns."
• Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) told Axios: "I'm still a no."

Between the lines: With a 218-215 majority, Republicans may not be able to afford the handful of defections that are currently expected.

• Democratic leaders are pressing for maximum attendance on their side to ensure Johnson has as little room for error as possible, Axios previously reported.
• Some Republicans are crossing their fingers that several older or ailing Democrats will be absent: "We can afford to lose three or four, depending on how many Dems show up," said one GOP lawmaker.

What we're hearing: In the conference meeting, Republicans framed a vote against the budget resolution as a vote against Trump's agenda, according to lawmakers who were present.

• One House Republican, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told Axios that leadership argued "if you don't support this budget resolution, that you're going to slow down the president's agenda — and you yourself will be responsible."
• That tactic seemed to fall flat with holdouts, however: Spartz said that leadership "shouldn't try to jam members with President Trump."

What they're saying: Some rank-and-file Republicans, coming out of the conference meeting, expressed a degree of skepticism that the scheduled 6:30pm vote will go ahead as planned.

• "I don't know that they can pull this together. It's hard to say," says Rep. Scott Fitzgerald (R-Wis.). "Sounds like there's a handful of members that aren't there yet."
• Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) argued Johnson should hold the vote even if the measure isn't poised to pass: "Roll the dice ... put it on the floor and see."

The number of deadly police encounters jumped last year to its highest level since 2013, according to newly released data.

Why this matters: The rise comes as the momentum for police reform has died five years after the 2020 murder of George Floyd and as President Trump ends initiatives aimed at reducing police misconduct.

By the numbers: A mapping initiative by Campaign Zero, an organization that advocates against police violence, found that 2024 saw 1,365 people killed by law enforcement.

• That was less than a 1% increase from the previous year, but the small spike came as early data showed an overall national decline in homicides and other violent crimes.
• A large majority of police killings (64.6%) were in response to 911 calls, the analysis found.
• Over half of people (54.7%) killed by U.S. law enforcement were between the ages of 20 and 40 years old.
• When information has been available about the mental state of the victim (70% of cases), 1 in 5 people killed by police exhibited signs of mental illness (not including drug/alcohol use).

Zoom in: Black and Latino residents continued to be disproportionately affected, both nationally and locally, based on new neighborhood data that Campaign Zero began tracking in 2024.

• In Chicago, for example, Black residents were more than 30 times more likely to be killed than white residents.
• In St. Louis, Black residents were more than 10 times more likely to be killed than white residents.

What they're saying: "This rise in police violence, even as homicides and violent crime decline nationwide, is a deeply troubling trend that demands data-backed solutions," Campaign Zero said in a statement.

How it works: The database relies on media reports to track any incident in which a law enforcement officer, whether off-duty or on-duty, uses force resulting in someone's death.

• Campaign Zero executive director DeRay Mckesson told Axios that researchers scour the internet daily for the latest police shootings and verify them to confirm details before including them in the database.
• If staff can't reasonably confirm a person's race or ethnicity, that person is classified as having an "unknown race," Mckesson said.
• The organization says its database has captured 92% of all police killings since 2013.

Between the lines: Last year saw a momentary re-examination of police violence after the fatal deputy shooting of Sonya Massey, an Illinois Black woman who had called 911 for help.

• A fatal beating of a Black man by white corrections officers at an upstate New York prison that was caught on body cam video also sparked anger, investigations and planned protests.

Yes, but: Former Vice President Kamala Harris did not make police reform central to her presidential campaign as she sought to win over white voters in Pennsylvania and Michigan.

• She mentioned the Massey killing and urged the GOP-controlled Congress to pass the stalled George Floyd Justice in Policing Act.
• President Trump campaigned on ending all Department of Justice pattern and practice investigations into troubled police departments

Flashback: After the 2020 racial reckoning from protests called for police reforms, many states saw a rise in new laws that reduced qualified immunity for officers, banned choke holds and required body cameras.

• Increases in crime early in President Biden's term, infighting between Black Lives Matter organizations and political stalemates in Congress all but the drive for dramatic policing reforms.
• A conservative backlash that ended public discussions about systemic racism under the guise of banning critical race theory in schools also stalled reform proposals.

President Trump told reporters that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit the White House on Friday to sign a minerals deal.

• Two sources close to the Ukrainian government told Axios the deal was agreed on Tuesday after two weeks of tense negotiations.

Why it matters: The deal is designed to allow the U.S. to tap some of Ukraine's immense mineral wealth and to spur post-war development in the country. But the meeting will bring together two leaders who were publicly feuding just last week, with Trump calling Zelensky a "dictator" and Zelensky claiming Trump was swallowing Russian disinformation.

Zoom in: Trump has argued the minerals deal will yield billions of dollars in revenue for the U.S. and help to recoup costs related to U.S. support of Ukraine in the war.

• One source said Zelensky managed to negotiate a final draft that didn't include a key U.S. demand that it would have rights to $500 billion in future revenue. The Financial Times first reported the U.S. concession.
• The draft agreement stated that the U.S. wants to keep Ukraine "free, sovereign and secure" but didn't mention specific security guarantees.
• The White House didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

Behind the scenes: Ukrainian and U.S. officials said U.S. envoy Gen. Keith Kellogg played a key role in containing the crisis over the minerals deal and preventing it from turning into a deep rift between Trump and Zelensky.

• "General Kellogg's meetings with Zelensky in Kyiv last Wednesday and Thursday were extremely important. Patient, persistent diplomacy can yield results," a U.S. official involved in the talks said.

State of play: The two sources said the Ukrainian cabinet will convene as soon as Wednesday to approve the deal, before Zelensky travels to Washington later in the week.

More than 20 Department of Government Efficiency employees resigned on Tuesday, saying that DOGE's actions are incompatible with their mission as civil servants.

The big picture: The workers, who were folded into DOGE via executive order when President Trump took office, warned in their resignation letter about the risks that DOGE presents to Americans' data and public services.

• "We will not use our skills as technologists to compromise core government systems, jeopardize Americans' sensitive data, or dismantle public services," they wrote in the anonymous letter directed to White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.
• "We will not lend our expertise to carry out or legitimize DOGE's actions."

Zoom out: DOGE head Elon Musk and allies have reimagined the federal workforce, including through layoffs and moving to close agencies or fold them into others.

• Thousands of workers took a buyout to leave the government while others have been fired or placed on administrative leave.

What they're saying: In the letter, the former employees said they completed 15-minute interviews on Inauguration Day with people wearing White House visitor badges.

• "Several of these interviewers refused to identify themselves, asked questions about political loyalty, attempted to pit colleagues against each other, and demonstrated limited technical ability," they wrote. "This process created significant security risks."

The workers, formerly part of the U.S. Digital Service, were integrated into DOGE on Feb. 16.

• Then-President Obama created the U.S. Digital Service in 2014 to fix problems with the Healthcare.gov portal. Since then, the agency has worked on other issues related to the federal government's technology footprint, including developing a tax filing portal to allow Americans to circumvent third-party companies and file directly with the IRS.

Between the lines: The employees who resigned on Tuesday were engineers, data scientists, product managers and an IT department head.

• "DOGE's actions — firing technical experts, mishandling sensitive data, and breaking critical systems — contradict their stated mission of 'modernizing Federal technology and software to maximize governmental efficiency and productivity,'" they wrote.

The other side: "These were full remote workers who hung Trans flags from their workplaces," DOGE spokesperson Katie Miller wrote on X.

Are you a federal employee with a tip? You can reach April Rubin confidentially on Signal @april.04.

Read the full letter:

Go deeper: How DOGE cuts might show up in the data

A grassroots movement is calling on Americans to abstain from shopping with major retailers on Feb. 28 as part of an "economic blackout."

Why it matters: The economic protest comes as many everyday Americans struggle to keep up in the current financial landscape, characterized by high housing costs, surging egg prices and stubborn inflation.

Between the lines: This week's economic blackout is the latest, but not the first, grassroots movement against consumerism that has gained steam in the face of high costs of living.

• Earlier this year the "no buy 2025" challenge gained traction on social media for similar reasons.

Who is behind it?

The Feb. 28 economic blackout is an initiative by The People's Union USA, which describes itself as a "grassroots movement dedicated to economic resistance, government accountability, and corporate reform."

• The group says it has no political affiliation but is rather focused on uniting Americans against corporate greed.
• The movement was founded by John Schwarz, who describes his movement as raising awareness about the ways the "system is rigged" against everyday Americans.

What is the economic blackout?

The Feb. 28 economic blackout calls on consumers to avoid all unnecessary purchases, either in-person or online, from midnight Thursday through midnight Friday.

• "No Amazon, No Walmart, No Best Buy," The People's Union USA website reads. "Nowhere!"
• It further urges participants not to spend money on fast food, major retailers or gas, and to avoid using credit or debit cards to make nonessential purchases.
• The blackout makes an exception for buying "essentials of absolutely necessary" — like medicine, food or emergency supplies — but urges consumers to make those purchases at small, local businesses.

Zoom in: The People's Union USA has other targeted economic actions planned for after the blackout.

• These include weeklong blackouts against specific retailers, including Amazon, Nestlé and Walmart.

What is the goal?

The economic blackout is "about solidarity and sending a clear message: we have the power," the group's website states.

• Schwarz echoed the sentiment in an Instagram video posted last week, saying the blackout is meant to push back against the notion that Americans have "no choice" but to accept the economic system.
• "For our entire lives, they have told us we have no choice ... that we have to accept these insane prices, the corporate greed, the billionaire tax breaks, all while we struggle to just to get by," he said.
• "For one day, we are going to finally turn the tables," he added.

Our thought bubble, from Axios' Ben Berkowitz: Boycott threats regularly make headlines, but their impact is usually more optical than financial.

• In fact, decades of research into boycotts suggest they often end up having a counterintuitively positive effect, as a larger, silent majority votes with their dollars by shopping instead of staying home.
• In 2014, the #BoycottBlackFriday movement after the killing of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Mo., did appear to have some short-term impact, as total sales during that key weekend fell versus 2013. But if there was an effect, it didn't last, as overall sales for the year's holiday season rose.

Go deeper: Shoppers are avoiding certain brands over politics: poll