Economists almost universally agree that the tariffs imposed by President Trump will cost the average American household hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars every year in higher goods costs.
Why it matters: It's not yet clear those households can, or will, pay it.
The big picture: In a matter of days, we're all going to learn how much pricing power is left in U.S. supply chains โ from the wholesalers, to the distributors, all the way through to retail.
Whether the extra 25% levy on avocados at the Mexican border turns into a 25% hike on your Super Bowl guacamole will depend on a range of factors and business decisions.
State of play: At every step of the process, everyone who touches that avocado (or any other tariffed good) will ask themselves two questions:
Can my profit margins absorb โ or survive โ any of this price increase?
Will customers accept any of that price increase, or just stop buying?
The intrigue: Now ask those same questions at tens of thousands of businesses, thousands of times every day, selling everything from TVs to tires and avocados to amplifiers.
By the numbers: There are short-term and long-term costs at play.
As Trump's tariffs first hit, the Tax Foundation estimates they will be an effective tax of more than $830 per U.S. household this year.
Next year, the Tax Policy Center says, the full impact of the tariffs will reduce consumers' average after-tax income by 1%.
In the long term, economies re-arrange themselves to account for the new order, and central banks react to the inflationary pressures. The Budget Lab at Yale University forecasts even after all that, the average U.S. household will still lose about $1,000 of purchasing power a year.
Over the medium to long term, the Budget Lab estimated the biggest persistent price increases would be in natural gas (think heating and cooking), and the broad category of "computer, electronic and optical" (cell phones, among other things).
It may not take that long, either โ as the well-known free trade expert Douglas Irwin posted on Sunday, his own home heating fuel provider immediately raised their prices to match the tariff, before it had even gone into effect.
The bottom line: "The big worry for markets is that President Trump may be willing to let the U.S. take considerable economic pain in an attempt to achieve his stated goals of reducing trade deficits, bringing jobs to the U.S., and enhancing border security," BMO Wealth Management chief investment officer Yung-Yu Ma wrote Monday.
The decision by President Trump to impose sweeping tariffs on Mexico and Canada is a stark repudiation of his own approach between 2017 and 2020.
Why it matters: No one yet knows whether these tariffs are an attempt by a transactional president to extract concessions from U.S. trading partners, or whether they're intended to become a permanent feature of the post-Trump landscape, designed to create a self-sufficient country much less reliant on international supply chains.
The big picture: This is the third major reconceptualization of North American trade since the end of the Cold War.
Bill Clinton's NAFTA, which came into law in 1994, was an attempt to maximize trade and growth across North America.
Trump 1.0's USMCA, which came into effect in 2020, was a renegotiation of NAFTA where the U.S. fought narrowly for its own best possible deal, with less concern for the consequences in Mexico and Canada.
Trump 2.0's tariffs effectively tear up USMCA and the concept of trade deals. In their place is an isolationist ideology that, if sustained, could cause massive economic harm not only in the U.S. but around the world.
What they're saying: Trump's executive orders, entitled "Imposing Duties To Address The Flow Of Illicit Drugs Across Our National Border," explicitly say the tariffs are a response to "the sustained influx of illicit opioids."
This announcement leaves open the possibility that should the fentanyl trade be addressed to Trump's satisfaction, the tariffs will be rolled back.
Indeed, analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a note Sunday that "in light of their potential economic effects and the fact that the White House has set general conditions for their removal, we think it is more likely that the tariffs will be temporary but the outlook is unclear."
"The national emergency we face is not about drugs or immigration," United Auto Workers president Shawn Fain said in a statement Sunday, urging Trump instead to "immediately seek to renegotiate our broken trade deals."
Between the lines: If the aim of the tariffs is to encourage companies to move manufacturing jobs from Mexico and Canada back to the U.S., then Trump will need to signal they are intended to be permanent. So far, that signal hasn't come.
The bottom line: Trump is unpredictable, and even he is probably unclear on how he would like to see his latest trade war play out.
Even if this one is resolved quickly, however, Trump has now made clear that he can and will impose his beloved tariffs at any point and for almost any reason.
"I don't think there are a lot of Americans who wake up in the morning saying, 'Oh, damn Canada. Oh, we should really go after Canada,'" Prime Minister Justin Trudeau remarked Saturday, encapsulating the shell shock many north of the border are now feeling.
Why it matters: The U.S. is indeed going after Canada. The 25% tariffs President Trump announced on Canada and Mexico โ which will likely plunge our northern neighbor into recession โ have united Canadians of all political stripes in indignation.
One sign of that sentiment: Canadian sports fans have started booing the U.S. national anthem.
Another: Canada's previously Trump-friendly opposition leader and likely future prime minister, Pierre Poilievre, demanded Sunday that Canada "Retaliate with dollar-for-dollar tariffs," "defend our sovereignty" and "never back down" to Trump.
Data: U.S. Customs and Border Protection; Chart: Axios Visuals
Breaking it down: Trump justified the tariffs on national security grounds โ namely that migrants and fentanyl are pouring across the northern border.
However, less than 1% of fentanyl seized in the U.S. last year was entering through Canada.
The number of undocumented migrants detained at the U.S.-Canada border has been rising, but only to around 6% of all such encounters reported by Customs and Border Patrol since 2022.
Particularly galling for Canadians: Trump invoked national security to invoke 10% tariffs on a U.S. adversary, China, and 25% on arguably its closest ally.
Driving the news: Trudeau declared more than $100 billion in retaliatory tariffs in a televised address on Saturday night that included appeals to Americans' wallets and their heartstrings.
"Tariffs against Canada will put your jobs at risk," he warned.
"From the beaches of Normandy to the mountains of the Korean Peninsula, from the fields of Flanders to the streets of Kandahar, we have fought and died alongside you during your darkest hours," he lamented.
Trudeau also advised Canadians to reject American products in solidarity.
Between the lines: For most Americans, the trade war will likely manifest mostly through higher prices on certain goods, such as lumber (and by extension, homebuilding). Canadian oil is subject to a lower tariff, to limit any rise in gas prices.
For Canada, which sends 75% of its exports to the U.S., the economic peril is greater.
Trump is well aware of that dynamic.
What they're saying: "We don't need anything they have," Trump claimed, contending that without the help of the U.S., Canada "ceases to exist as a viable Country."
"Harsh but true! Therefore, Canada should become our Cherished 51st State," he taunted.
Vice President Vance also portrayed Canada as a friendly freeloader, taking advantage of its proximity to the U.S. while not hitting NATO's 2% spending target.
"Spare me the sob story about how Canada is our 'best friend."
What's next: Trump plans to speak with Trudeau and Mexican officials today.
The bottom line: If you had to pick a country to share a 5,000-mile border with, you could hardly do better than Canada. But Trump is proving that even the closest of friendships can turn frosty.
Dozens of newly confirmed cases of avian influenza in wild birds and the first verified U.S. case of a new strain of the virus are raising concern the bird flu crisis may be entering a troubling new phase.
Why it matters: While the developments don't necessarily raise the risk of a pandemic, they could create more havoc for farmers, exacerbate egg shortages and expose more gaps in government disease surveillance.
The outbreak is intensifying as the Trump administration maintains a pause on most external federal health agency communications, including publication of CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), a venerable source of scientific reports on public health.
Driving the news: The Department of Agriculture last week confirmed 81 detections of highly pathogenic avian flu in wild birds collected across 24 states between Dec. 29 and Jan. 17.
Wild birds can be infected and show no signs of illness, allowing them to spread the virus to new areas and potentially expose domestic poultry.
Officials in Pennsylvania and New York have culled thousands of wild geese, as well as commercial poultry flocks, after detecting cases of flu.
What they're saying: "If you look at what's happened the last eight weeks, the number of poultry operations that have gone down โย and more recently, the duck operations โ is absolutely stunning," Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota told Axios.
The virus is being spread as wild birds comingle with birds in commercial poultry operations.
Changes in migratory patterns may be worsening the issue in northern states, which now see certain wild birds stay for the winter because water sources aren't freezing, Osterholm said.
"There is a lot of H5N1 out there. And we're going to see more cases in humans," he said.
But "they're going to be single, isolated cases," he said.
The intrigue: A new strain of avian flu called H5N9 was recently identified on a duck farm in California that had an outbreak of the more common H5N1 flu last fall.
The new type is a sign that two or more viruses could be infecting the same animal and swapping genetic material. Ducks make good hosts for what scientists call "reassortment" because they aren't badly sickened by many types of avian flu.
About 119,000birds on the farm were euthanized following the discovery.
Such mutations, in and of themselves, may not pose a greater threat to human health.
The H5N9 strain originated in China and is itself a mix of several other strains. It isn't thought to be more of a threat to humans than the H5N1 strain that's widely circulating in U.S. poultry, cattle and wild birds.
But its presence could become a major problem if there was a reassortment between avian flu and a seasonal human flu, Richard Webby, director of the World Health Organization's Collaborating Center for Studies on the Ecology of Influenza, told the Los Angeles Times.
That combination could result in a virus that is more easily transmitted between people.
Catch up quick: The bird flu crisis has struck 113 flocks in the past 30 days, affecting more than 19 million birds, per USDA. It's also been confirmed in 943 dairy herds, the vast majority in California.
The Trump administration hasn't publicly outlined steps it's taken yet to address the spread. HHS didn't respond to a request for comment.
HHS Secretary-designate Robert F Kennedy Jr. said he intended to "devote the appropriate resources to preventing pandemics" during confirmation hearings this week, leading some Democratic senators to point to past statements he made about giving infectious disease research "a break."
Between the lines: The partial blackout on health communications has effectively blocked publication of a pair of studies on bird flu, including one on whether veterinarians who treat cattle have been unknowingly infected by the virus, KFF Health News reported.
The other report looked at whether people carrying the virus might have infected domestic cats.
The reports were due to appear in the MMWR, which hasn't published since January 16 and is subject to the pause ordered by acting HHS Secretary Dorothy Fink to allow the new administration to set up a process for review and prioritization.
The communications freeze has been met with outrage in some medical and science circles. "This idea that science cannot continue until there's a political lens over it is unprecedented," Anne Schuchat, a former principal deputy director at the CDC, told KFF Health News.
There's a lot of uncertainty around whether the administration is merely pausing communication or making a wholesale change in how the agency functions, Patrick Jackson, a UVA Health infectious diseases expert, said on a call with reporters Friday.
"Frankly, getting CDC up and running at full speed is going to be essential to keep track of avian influenza," he said.
Elon Musk and his cost-slashing allies are taking a hammer to the massive bureaucracy that staffs the U.S. government โย and a scalpel to any senior officials who dare put up a fight.
Why it matters: Musk isn't the only force driving the Trump administration's escalating purge of civil servants. But his fingerprints are everywhere, and his methods are unlike anything the federal government has ever seen.
Zoom in: Musk and his lieutenants โ many of them Silicon Valley transplants, some as young as 19 โ have been tied to a series of high-profile departures and ousters at the top of key federal agencies.
The Treasury Department's highest-ranking career official announced his retirement Friday after a dispute with Musk allies who sought access to a sensitive system for government payments, The Washington Post scooped.
David Lebryk, who worked at Treasury for more than three decades, was one of a few career officials who control the Bureau of Fiscal Service's technical checkbook, which disburses trillions of dollars in spending.
"Truly a shocking move โ Dave is a total apolitical professional who's been trusted by Treasury secretaries from both parties to maintain the critical financial plumbing of the U.S. govt," Biden Treasury official Mike Gwin tweeted in response to the news.
By late Friday, Musk's allies at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) had been granted full access to the payment system by newly confirmed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, according to the New York Times.
"Career Treasury officials are breaking the law every hour of every day by approving payments that are fraudulent or do not match the funding laws passed by Congress," Musk claimed Saturday. "This needs to stop NOW!"
"I can think of no good reason why political operators who have demonstrated a blatant disregard for the law would need access to these sensitive, mission-critical systems," Senate Finance ranking member Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) wrote in a letter demanding answers from Bessent.
The pattern repeated itself at the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which Trump could be preparing to fold into the State Department โ openly defying a congressional statute.
A top HR official at USAID, which has become the epicenter of a vicious debate over foreign aid, was placed on administrative leave Thursday for trying to rescind a DOGE order purging career officials, the Post reports.
On Saturday, two top security officials also were put on leave after trying to stop Musk allies from physically accessing USAID headquarters and personnel files, including classified information.
"USAID is a criminal organization. Time for it to die," Musk tweeted in response to reports of the confrontation.
Behind the scenes: So far, the White House appears pleased with Musk's foray into the inner workings of the government, seeing his efforts as aligned with Trump's broader goals of disrupting D.C.'s status quo.
"Elon's top interest outside of DOGE is making sure the president's orders are acted upon," a senior White House official told Axios. "Elon is the ultimate command-and-control guy. He's making sure there's a sense of urgency in the agencies."
"What Elon's doing is great because he's an innovative businessman bringing business innovation to bear in government. That's why he's here," the official added.
But political risks are inherent in Musk's whirlwind takeover of federal agencies, especially when they intersect with his business interests.
Democrats have accused Musk of pressuring former Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) head Mike Whitaker to resign Jan. 20 over $600,000 in fines the agency levied against Musk's SpaceX.
Whitaker's departure left the FAA without a leader during Wednesday night's in-air collision near Reagan National Airport โย the deadliest U.S. air disaster since 2001. Trump named Chris Rocheleau as FAA acting administrator the next day.
The big picture: Musk hasn't slowed down since helping orchestrate last week's stunning offer of "deferred resignations" for 2 million federal workers, which came days after he visited the Office of Personnel Management.
Musk allies installed at the OPM have locked career officials out of computer systems that contain the personal data of millions of federal workers, Reuters reported Friday.
What we're watching: Musk paid a visit last week to what's likely to be his next target: the General Services Administration, which oversees thousands of government leases as part of its massive budget.
"Deleted," Musk responded bluntly to an X post highlighting the billions of dollars and thousands of federal workers under GSA's control.
A novel new report combining several strands of research finds that human-driven climate change could result in $1.47 trillion in net property value losses from rising insurance costs and shifting consumer demand.
Why it matters: Insurance costs are increasing faster than mortgage payments. That's squeezing homeowners and eventually leading to climate change-driven migration away from high-risk areas in the Sun Belt and the West.
The report from First Street, a climate risk financial modeling company, identifies the five largest metro areas likely to see the biggest spikes in insurance premiums: Miami, Jacksonville, Tampa, New Orleans and Sacramento.
Zoom in: The report is based on peer-reviewed models of how climate change may affect insurance prices, migration and economic patterns, among other factors.
The findings are particularly timely given the recent, devastating wildfires in Southern California, which caused an estimated $20 to $30 billion in insured losses and raised the topic of how insurance premiums price wildfire risks.
According to the new research, climate impacts may disrupt historical migration to Sun Belt states as risks of climate change-worsened extreme weather events continue to grow.
First Street estimates that unrestricted, risk-based insurance pricing would yield a 29.4% increase in average insurance premiums across the country by 2055.
This would include an 18.4% correction for "current underpricing" and an 11% increase from climate risk increases.
The intrigue: The economic, climate and demographic modeling behind this report predicts that more than 55 million Americans will "voluntarily relocate within the U.S. to areas less vulnerable to climate risks by 2055."
This would include 5.2 million internal climate migrants in 2025.
Economic growth has been thought of as a shield of sorts to retain population in areas that suffer from increasingly severe climate change-related disruptions.
In its analysis, First Street warns that may not hold up through 2055,with some metropolitan areas crossing "tipping points" in which they begin to see net declines in population.
Already, researchers found that fast-growing cities in the South, Southeast and West have pockets of higher climate risks where homes are gaining value more slowly than similar homes in less risky areas.
There may be winners, however, with northern, currently less-populated areas from Montana to Wisconsin โ and in parts of the East โ taking in more people because of the region's greater climate resilience.
Between the lines: First Street's report itself hasn't been peer-reviewed, and there are important caveats and uncertainties associated with the work, since it combines results from multiple models and peer-reviewed studies.
Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications for First Street and a demographer by training, laid out to Axios via email the new research's usefulness as well as its limitations.
He said the models don't account for climate adaptation measures such as stricter building codes and sea walls to shield coastal areas from storm surge flooding.
They also don't include inflation, which could miss non-climate-related housing market appreciation, along with other market forces that could also run counter to climate-risk-related losses in value.
The bottom line: These results are best used to identify locations that are most at risk for climate change-related increasing insurance costs, property devaluation and population change, Porter said.
The big picture: Musk's comments early Monday followed reports that two senior USAID security officials were placed on administrative leave after denying representatives from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which the billionaire spearheads, access to internal systems during a visit to the agency's D.C. headquarters.
While representatives for Trump did not immediately respond to Axios' requests for comment in the evening, the president told reporters earlier Sunday that USAID was "run by radical lunatics, and we're getting them out, and then we'll make a decision" on its future.
Trump has already ordered a freeze on foreign aid as part of his "America first" foreign policy. The U.S. government is the world's single largest humanitarian donor.
Driving the news: Musk said during a late-night discussion with former DOGE co-leader Vivek Ramaswamy and Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) on his X Spaces platform he went over USAID issues in detail with Trump and checked with him a few times if he was sure that he wanted to shut it down and he agreed to do it.
The Tesla and SpaceX CEO also accused the agency responsible for administering civilian foreign aid and development assistance of being "incredibly politically partisan," without going into specific examples.
Zoom in: Ernst, who's previously led investigations into USAID, said "there are probably some arguments to be made about what could be important work that falls under USAID, but the fact of matter is, it has been overshadowed by these bad actors."
She suggested if there are "truly good pro-American programs, let's move them to the State Department," to which Musk replied: "Exactly."
Ernst emphasized the need for oversight while giving examples of what she said were her findings of waste in USAID, while Ramaswamy said there was a need for the agency's "deletion."
Musk said he was looking to shut USAID down because it's "a bowl of worms" with no apple, so you've "got to get rid of the whole thing" because it's "beyond repair."
Zoom out: Senate Democrats wrote to Secretary of State Marco Rubio Sunday to demand answers about the DOGE representatives' USAID visit.
They raised concern that the reps may have accessed American citizens' data and classified spaces, and that the subsequent placing on administrative leave of senior USAID personnel might compromise national security.
Katie Miller, a Trump appointee on DOGE's advisory board, said on X: "No classified material was accessed without proper security clearances" during the visit.
Maine native Amy Allen is the first woman to be awarded Songwriter of the Year.
Allen was considered for writing Sabrina Carpenter's Grammy-winning song "Espresso" in addition to songs by Justin Timberlake, Tate McRae and Olivia Rodrigo.
The record for wins in the Best Pop/Duo Performance category was broken by Lady Gaga, who now has three.
She won this year for "Die With A Smile," a collaboration with Bruno Mars.
Her previous wins were for "Rain On Me" with Ariana Grande (2021) and "Shallow" with Bradley Cooper (2019).
The Texas National Guard was "granted the power of immigration officials to make immigration arrests" under an agreement with the Trump administration that state Gov. Greg Abbott said Sunday was effective "immediately."
Why it matters: The national guard's increased powers are part of President Trump's immigration crackdown vow to expel millions of undocumented immigrants, which saw him sign executive orders declaring a national emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border soon after taking office.
State of play: The deal between Customs and Border Protection and Texas "boosts man power for border security," Abbott said on X Sunday evening.
A memorandum of understanding authored by CBP Acting Commissioner Pete Flores has yet to be "disseminated to all Texas border sectors," per Breitbart, which first reported on the deal.
Representatives for Abbott's office did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening on when this would happen.
The agreement will enable soldiers to conduct "roving patrols and exercise all the duties of an immigration agent so long as a U.S. immigration officer or Border Patrol agent accompanies them," per Breitbart.
Representatives for CBT did not immediately respond to Axios' requests for comment in the evening.
Zoom out: A Jan. 23 Department of Homeland Security directive gave Justice Department law enforcement officials in the U.S. Marshals, Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives and the Federal Bureau of Prisons authority to investigate and apprehend suspected undocumented immigrants.
Trump's attempt to expand "fast-track" deportations without a full hearing is being challenged in an American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) lawsuit, which argues it violates federal law and the Fifth Amendment's due process clause since it nearly erases full court hearings entitled to immigrants.
The big picture: The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), which has been on the ground since Friday, says it'll take several days โ or potentially weeks โ to collect and analyze evidence from the sprawling crash site.
The latest: Investigators have recovered the jet's black box, the NTSB said Sunday night.
They found it 8 feet underground, along with an enhanced ground proximity warning system that could contain flight data. They also found the plane's engines.
The parts are being sent to the agency's lab in Washington, D.C. to be analyzed.
Investigators also obtained surveillance footage and several statements from witnesses. They encouraged the public to email NTSB with video and photos of the crash.
The agency said it expects to have a preliminary reportdone within 30 days.
But a final report with a probable cause won't come for 1-2 years.
The crew didn't send any distress messages from the cockpit and didn't respond to a transmission from air traffic control, NTSB chair Jennifer Homendy said.
"It looks like a rocket that comes straight down," David Evans, an airline transport pilot and flight instructor, told the Inquirer. "Even a Lear has some sort of glide capability. It just looks so highly unusual."
Based on air traffic control recordings, the weather at the time of the incident and publicly available flight path data, the two most likely culprits are either spatial disorientation in a low overcast cloud layer immediately after takeoff, or some catastrophic mechanical failure, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick โ a pilot โ tells us.
Juan Browne, a commercial pilot and aviation accident expert, tells Axios spatial disorientation is more common at night when pilots are reliant on their instruments to help them fly.
The lack of a distress call and the steep, rapid decline suggest the pilots were "110 percent task saturated" trying to safely navigate, Browne says. "We call it 'helmet fire' in the industry."
Caveat: Only after the official investigation may we have a full understanding of what happened.
That the aircraft impacted the ground so violently will no doubt complicate investigators' work, given the state of the physical evidence, Axios' Fitzpatrick adds.
What they're saying: Tammy Duffy, a 59-year-old pharmaceutical representative from Hamilton, New Jersey, tells Axios she was stuck in rush-hour traffic near Cottman Avenue and Roosevelt Boulevard when the plane struck.
The explosion and a fiery mushroom cloud sent people running for their lives.
"Time froze," says Duffy, who shut her vents to keep acrid smoke from entering her car. "It reminded me of 9/11."
Commissioner Lisa Deeleysaid on X the tragedy has shaken the neighborhood where she grew up: "You see these things on TV, but it's totally different when it is in your own backyard," Deeley wrote.
Heather Long, who lives near the crash site, told Axios residents are worried about how they'll get to work this week โ since many streets are still barricaded with police officers preventing traffic from entering or leaving.
"We don't have any answers," Long said. "I want to know when we can leave."
What's next
"Long-term recovery": That's what the city's Managing Director Adam Thiel is warning residents to brace for as the massive effort to restore normalcy to the neighborhood gets underway.
The crash site along Cottman Avenue โ a busy corridor with a mix of homes and businesses โ stretches at least a half-mile between Bustleton Avenue and Roosevelt Boulevard.
Aerial footage shows a deep crater in the ground there, and a debris field that officials said likely spans several miles.
The full extent of the damage isn't even known yet, officials said: They'll only be able to assess it after the crash investigation.
Mike's thought bubble: I went down to the site Sunday and saw the usually bustling, noisy hub brought to a standstill โ a surreal feeling.
The scene was eerily quiet even though there were police, investigators and onlookers everywhere, and I watched investigators use an excavator to hoist the charred remains of abandoned cars onto a tow truck.
State of play: Roosevelt Boulevard is expected to open by rush hour Monday morning, Philadelphia Police Commissioner Kevin Bethel said Sunday.
The Roosevelt Mall is expected to reopen on Tuesday, Kristen Moore, a spokesperson for mall owner Brixmore Property Group tells Axios.
PECO has restoredservices to the neighborhood, except for some buildings that were impacted by the crash.
It's not clear when Cottman Avenue will reopen to traffic.
What we're watching: The city is still working to figure out exactly how many people were displaced or missing due to the crash.
"It is possible there are still people โฆ that we don't know about," Thiel said Sunday.
Officials will hold a town hall meeting at 7pm on Wednesday to answer residents' questions and share more resources. The location is TBD.
The city is partnering with three organizations so residents can soon donate to people impacted by the crash.
Following reports that Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) representatives accessed the U.S. Agency for International Development's (USAID) D.C. headquarters, American citizens' data and classified spaces, Senate Democrats wrote to Secretary of State Marco Rubio to demand answers.
When asked for comment on USAID, Trump told reporters Sunday evening: "It's been run by a bunch of radical lunatics, and we're getting them out, and then we'll make a decision" on its future.
The big picture: Senate Democrats said in a statement on their letter to Rubio Sunday they're concerned the Musk-headed DOGE reps' possible unauthorized access of USAID and the subsequent placing on administrative leave of senior personnel from the agency responsible for administering civilian foreign aid and development assistance "Compromises our National Security."
Zoom in: The Democrats wrote they've received reports that individuals who identified themselves as working for DOGE accessed classified spaces during their visit and it's unclear whether they had proper security clearances.
"We understand that the security guards present at the facility were threatened when they raised questions," per the letter from Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), ranking member of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and the SFRC's Democratic members.
"Following this incident, the senior management of the Office of Security, which secures USAID personnel and facilities and safeguards national security information, were placed on administrative leave," added the Democrats, who said they hadn't been notified of the visit.
"The potential access of sensitive, even classified, files which may include the personally identifiable information (PII) of Americans working with USAID, and this incident as a whole raises deep concerns about the protection and safeguarding of matters related to U.S. national security."
The intrigue: The USAID website appeared to be offline over the weekend, with www.usaid.gov returning the message: "This site can't be reached."
What they're saying: Responding to a report that two senior USAID officials had been placed on administrative leave, Musk said on X Sunday: "USAID is a criminal organization. Time for it to die."
He did not immediately provide evidence of crimes committed.
Katie Miller, whom Trump appointed to the DOGE advisory board in December, said on X: "No classified material was accessed without proper security clearances."
What we're watching: The Democrats requested "an immediate update" on details of the incident and demanded to know whether "any PII of American citizens was breached, and whether any review is underway regarding potential unauthorized access to sensitive personnel information and classified materials."
Zoom out: House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Rep. Brian Mast (Fla.) Mast said on CBS' "Face the Nation" Sunday he's working with Rubio on addressing State Department reauthorization and "the purging of people throughout the State Department, other agencies, when we're freezing aid."
When CBS' Margaret Brennan asked for clarification, Mast said: "If you want to take a look at the State Department, where DEI has been a priority over, let's say, diplomacy on many accounts."
The Senate Democrats said in their letter any effort to "merge or fold" the Congress-established USAID into the State Department "should be, and by law must be, previewed, discussed, and approved by Congress."
Representatives for the State Department and the White House did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment.
The Dallas Mavericks on Saturday posted a video of Luka Donฤiฤ decked out in cowboy attire โ black boots, a hat and a bolo tie. It was National Texas Day.
Nine hours later, the team had traded their superstar to the Los Angeles Lakers.
Why it matters: The trade is one of the most stunning and confusing moves in the league's history. It will drastically change the Mavericks' trajectory and reputation.
The latest: "Seven years ago, I came here as a teenager to pursue my dream of playing basketball at the highest level," Donฤiฤ wrote in a statement titled "Dear Dallas" on Instagram.
"I thought I'd spend my career here and I wanted so badly to bring you a championship," he wrote.
The Slovenian native went on to say the love he received as a Mavericks player was more than he dreamt of, and that he is leaving a city that "will always feel like a home away from home."
State of play: The Mavericks traded Donฤiฤ, Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris for Anthony Davis, Max Christie and a 2029 first-round pick from the Lakers, per ESPN reporter Shams Charania, who broke the story late Saturday.
The deal involves the Utah Jazz also taking a player from the Lakers and getting two future draft picks.
The trade came as a surprise to Donฤiฤ and players and coaches across both franchises, Charania reported.
Fans protested outside the American Airlines Center yesterday, setting up Donฤiฤ gear, flowers and signs near Nowitzki's statue. Resale ticket prices for the Mavericks-Lakers game in April in Dallas have more than doubled since the trade news broke.
The intrigue: The Lakers have apparently had their sights set on Donฤiฤ for a while, hoping he is the future of the franchise after LeBron James retires.
James has been a Donฤiฤ fan for years. He described Donฤiฤ in 2020 as a "team-first" player who approaches the sport with a "sense of joy."
Reality check: Donฤiฤ has been prone to injuries, often missing multiple games in a row. He hadn't played since Dec. 25 because of a calf injury.
How it happened: The Mavericks approached the Lakers about the trade, which was in the works for several weeks, per the Dallas Morning News.
Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison said during a news conference yesterday that the talks began as a "would you ever?" coffee conversation with Lakers general manager Rob Pelinka.
The deal was kept a secret, with no coaches or players in the loop.
"We really believe in it, and time will tell if I'm right," Harrison said.
Zoom in: During a news conference Sunday,Kidd looked down most of the time, not saying much initially.
Toward the end, he said he supported Harrison's decision but was trying to stay focused on Sunday's game against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The lineup was grim, with several Mavericks players out because of injuries.
"When you look at the team and what Nico wants to build, I truly support that and truly believe the players we are getting can achieve that," Kidd said.
Zoom out: Mark Cuban once said that if forced to choose between his wife and Donฤiฤ's, he'd be headed for divorce.
Cuban has since sold his majority stake in the Mavs to Las Vegas casino magnate Miriam Adelson and her family and is no longer involved in daily basketball operations.
Cuban confirmed to WFAA that he wasn't involved in Donฤiฤ's trade.
What's next: Kyrie Irving could become the face of the Mavericks franchise as Davis adjusts to the team.
The Mavericks are 26-24. The playoffs begin in April, if they make it.
The bottom line: It's hard to imagine Dallas without Donฤiฤ.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Panama officials that Chinese influence over the Panama Canal must be curbed or the U.S. will take retaliatory actions, the State Department said Sunday.
Why it matters: Rubio's warning to Panama President Josรฉ Raรบl Mulino and Foreign Minister Javier Martรญnez-Acha is another pressure point on the country since President Trump said he intended to regain control of the Panama Canal.
The trip to Panama is Rubio's first abroad since being sworn in as secretary of state.
Driving the news: Since winning a second presidential term last November, Trump has tripled down on his demands regarding the Panama Canal, and hasn't ruled out using military force to obtain control of it.
His demands include U.S. ships paying lower rates to use the canal โ after claiming that Panama charges American ships more than other nations.
Trump's complaints are partially based on the fact that a Hong Kong-based company has a contract for running the canal, which has been under Panama's control since 1999.
Mulino has so far rejected Trump's demands to hand over control of the canal back to the United States.
What they are saying: Rubio told Mulino and Martรญnez-Acha that Trump has made "a preliminary determination" that the current Chinese influence over the Panama Canal area is a threat to the canal, State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said in a statement.
Rubio said that it is also a violation of theย treaty between the U.S. and Panama which defines the neutrality and operation of the canal.ย
"Secretary Rubio made clear that this status quo is unacceptable and that absent immediate changes,ย it would requireย the United Statesย toย take measures necessary to protect its rights under the Treaty," Bruce said.
The other side: After his meeting with Rubio, Panama's president told reporters his country won't give up the control over the canal, but stressed that the government is going to conduct an audit of Chinese operated ports on both sides of the canal and present the findings to the U.S.
Mulino also said Panama will not renew its agreement with China about Beijing's Belt and Road initiative, that will expire next year and will check if it can get out of it sooner.
As trade war fears circulate, lawmakers are manning their posts: Democrats are warning prices will skyrocket โ while Republicans say the potential discomfort will be worth it in the end.
The big picture: Economists fear the across-the-board tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China โ and the immediate retaliation that followed โ could further stress already strained U.S. households and walk back recent economic gains.
Trump's 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and additional 10% tariffs on China could effectively tax the average U.S. household an extra $830 this year, an analysis from the nonpartisan nonprofit Tax Foundation found.
The president conceded in a Sunday Truth Social post that there may be "SOME PAIN" as a result of his tariffs on the U.S.' top three trading partners, but he contended "IT WILL ALL BE WORTH THE PRICE THAT MUST BE PAID."
Zoom out: Some of his close allies on Sunday echoed that sentiment.
Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said on NBC News' "Meet the Press" that if "prices go up, it's because of other people's reactions to America's laws."
Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) characterized Trump's tariffs as a border tool, telling NBC's Kristen Welker they "are meant to bring Canada and Mexico the table for the fentanyl that is streaming into our communities."
Almost all of the 21,900 pounds of fentanyl seized last year was at the southwestern border, but 43 pounds was recovered at the northern border, according to Customs and Border Patrol statistics.
Vice President JD Vance said before Trump signed off on his anticipated tariffs that "we'll see what happens" regarding retaliation.
He argued in an interview aired Sunday on Fox's "Sunday Morning Futures" that the real retaliation was "Donald Trump saying, 'no more.'"
Yes, but: Trump's campaign-trail vision for tariffs as a cure-all does not align with the consumer consequences and supply chain disruptions economists and business interest groups foresee.
Tariffs can raise revenue for the governments imposing them โ but the impact of tariffs can be passed on to consumers through a wide array of everyday products.
Most of the country's avocados and beer, for example, come from Mexico. Auto parts, oil and gas are also key resources the U.S. imports from Canada.
Former Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.) said on CNN's "State of the Union" said she's concerned that the president doesn't know his "end game" on his tariffs, adding, "If you're going to pick a fight in a bar, maybe you should scope the exits."
Between the lines: For months, senators stressed they saw Trump's tariff threats as a negotiating tactic, Axios' Stef W. Kight, Justin Green and Hans Nichols report.
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told "Fox News Sunday" that "these tariffs are designed to get these countries to change their behavior" and that if those changes are made, "I think the tariffs probably go away."
Lawmakers who spoke to Axios ahead of Trump's tariff kickoff often pointed to concerns about the taxes on imported goods triggering a rise in inflation, which was a sore spot for Democrats in November.
But the tariffs happened โ and now Democrats are on offense.
Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) characterized the move as the "Donald Trump Super Bowl tax," on CBS News' "Face the Nation," noting key imports from Mexico โ like beer, avocados and tomatoes โ could carry a larger price tag.
His fellow Virginian, Sen. Tim Kaine (D), said Trump's first-term tariffs were "a tax on Virginia consumers," predicting Americans will see "higher prices for energy, higher prices for groceries."
Kaine said he was struck by what he saw as the "irony" of Trump's executive order declaring an "energy emergency" followed by 10% tariffs on Canadian energy.
Cars that are made in America aren't only made in America โ they're made across North America.
As a result, Trump's across-the-board tariffs on all trade with Mexico or Canada risks making U.S. autos much more expensive than foreign imports.
Why it matters: The U.S. auto industry could shut down within a week, by someestimates, thanks to these tariffs. Even if it doesn't, there is no automaker that's set up to operate in a world of high-friction North American border duties.
The big picture: With modern supply chains, a single component in a vehicle can cross the U.S. border between six and eight times before final assembly.
Trump's order makes it clear that duty is payable every time any component crosses into the U.S. โ there's no "drawback" allowed that limits the tariff to just the value added abroad.
Zoom out: What that means is that the 25% tariffs won't just be payable on full vehicles that have their final assembly in Mexico, like the Chevrolet Equinox or the Ford Maverick.
They're also going to affect nearly all of the components in nearly all cars made in North America, often multiple times over.
Aside from the actual tariffs themselves, there's also no infrastructure in place to even place a precise dollar value on all the components that travel back and forth, let alone fill out customs paperwork on them.
The bottom line: If you add up all the tariffs that are going to apply to U.S.-made vehicles, they could easily end up dwarfing total tariffs on finished cars imported from Europe, Japan, or Korea.
Far from boosting the U.S. auto industry, these tariffs, if they stay in place for any length of time, could end up decimating it.
Gen Z men think they need to earn about 15% more to be "financially successful" than young women do, per a new study digging into the thorny question of what "making it" really means.
Why it matters: Even at a young age, the gender wage gap is driving very different perceptions of need and success.
Driving the news: YPulse, a youth research organization, surveyed 1,000 people ages 13-39 and asked them "How much would you need to make as an annual salary (e.g. the money you earn at a job per year) for you to be financially successful?"
It was prompted by a widely reported study last year, published by financial services company Empower, that showed a huge gap between Gen Z and other generations in the definition of a success-making salary.
By the numbers: The male respondents to YPulse's survey, on average, estimated they'd need a salary of $69,500 a year to feel successful.
That's almost 16% more than the roughly $58,600 average response from women.
Between the lines: According to YPulse, the gender pay gap plays a significant role in the disparity.
Women have suppressed expectations because they know they're likely to earn less in the workforce.
That gender wage gap is actually widening, per Census data, and matches almost exactly the YPulse findings.
Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) on Sunday mirrored ex-Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, Trump's nominee for director of national intelligence, when he dodged classifying Edward Snowden as a traitor.
Why it matters: Gabbard's refusal to call Snowden a traitor during her Senate confirmation hearing Thursday reportedly prompted some GOP discomfort.
What they're saying: Schmitt danced around the same question during a Sunday interview on "Meet the Press."
"I think people are tired of these games, of sort of this 'gotcha' stuff. Look, he's [Snowden] been indicted," Schmitt said when pressed by NBC News' Kristen Welker. "If he ever comes back to the United States he's going to have a trial. But this idea of you trying to disqualify people by using these terms is ridiculous."
When asked again about Snowden, Schmitt said: "I think it's totally ridiculous to try to smear people who are trying to serve this country because, again, it's sort of 'gotcha.'"
Catch up quick: Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) said that when he posed the question to Gabbard, for whom he has expressed his support, he expected it to be "an easy softball question."
But when Lankford asked Gabbard if Snowden was a traitor for leaking highly classified information, the ex-Democrat did not give a yes-or-no answer.
She instead said she would be "committed if confirmed as director of national intelligence to join you in making sure that there is no future Snowden-type leak."
The other side: Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), who sits on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said on "Meet the Press" Sunday that he was "puzzled" by Gabbard's inability to call Snowden a traitor and found Schmitt's subsequent dodge "interesting."
"I mean, the definition of a traitor's pretty simple," Kelly said. "I mean, whether or not somebody betrayed our country, and in the case of Edward Snowden we know he did."
He added that he thinks many of his GOP colleagues "will still have questions about her nomination."
Between the lines: Schmitt said he is still "100%" a yes on Gabbard and predicted she will "do just fine" when senators gather to cast their votes. The Senate Intelligence Committee vote on Gabbard has not been scheduled.
Elon Musk and the MAGA masses have also mobilized behind Gabbard, turning the heat on those who could tank her confirmation chances, including Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.).
Media reports have indicated that Young is reluctant to vote for Gabbard, prompting Musk to accuse the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), an NGO where Young is a board member, of being "RIFE with CORRUPTION."
An X account, which Musk retweeted, claimed Young's involvement with NED creates a conflict of interest when it comes to opposing Gabbard.
But Musk posted later Sunday afternoon that he had an "excellent conversation" with Young, adding, "I stand corrected."
Vice President JD Vance defended President Trump's contention that the tragic plane collision in Washington, D.C., was connected to diversity, equity and inclusion hiring practices within the Federal Aviation Administration.
Driving the news: "The president made very clear that he wasn't blaming anybody, but he was being very explicit about the fact that DEI policies have led our air traffic controllers to be short staffed," Vance said on Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures." "That is a scandal."
There are widespread shortages of air traffic controllers โ but there's no evidence that DEI hiring policies have impacted aviation safety.
U.S. Census Bureau and IPUMS statistics show air traffic controllers and airfield operations specialists are predominately male and white.
Driving the news: But Vance said during the interview that the "DEI regime" of the Biden administration led to air traffic control not hiring "the best and the brightest."
He claimed the "elimination of DEI hires and DEI policies" will allow the FAA to hire "the air traffic controllers that we need."
Vance argued air traffic controllers were not being hired because of "the color of their skin," claiming there is a "very direct connection between the policies of the last administration and short-staffed air traffic controllers."
Reality check: The standards to be certified as an air traffic controller are "not based on race or gender," said Nick Daniels, president of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, in a Friday statement.
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy gave no evidence that DEI initiatives led to staffing shortages or safety concerns on CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday, but he said the COVID-19 pandemic had a "huge impact" on hiring and training.
Zoom in: A 2023 inspector general report found that the pandemic prompted training pauses for nearly two years, significantly increasing air traffic controller certification times.
Training can take more than three years, according to the report, which said the FAA has taken "limited efforts to ensure adequate controller staffing."
Staffing did increase from pandemic levels under the Biden administration, per NATCA and FAA data.
But Daniels told CBS just 10,800 certified controllers are doing the job when there should be 14,335.
An internal FAA report said one controller was working two jobs at the time of the crash, AP reported. The second air traffic controller had left early that evening.
Catch up quick: Trump ordered a review of federal aviation hiring on Thursday, calling for a "systematic assessment of any deterioration in hiring standards and aviation safety standards and protocols during the Biden administration."
The hiring language Trump railed against was included in FAA regulations during his first term and was promoted on the agency's website since 2013, according to the AP. The Trump administration removed it shortly after he returned to the White House.
There's an unspoken, ugly rule of American politics: Do unto the other what they have done unto you.
Simply put: Copy the payback, punishments and precedent-shattering techniques practiced by the other party โ if they prove effective.
Why it matters: In 30 years of covering this city, it's hard to recall any controversial new power grabs or moves not growing commonplace in American politics.
That's why impeachment threats ... governing by executive order ... and ever-expanding presidential power are as predictable as winter follows fall.
They did it to us. So we'll do it, too โ on steroids.
The big picture: President Trump didn't start this trend, by any stretch of the imagination. But he stretches the trend beyond imagination.
We're in uncharted territory, a new frontier. Republicans should fully expect future Democratic presidents to use and build on all these norm-busting moves.
Trump's new techniques and tactics, likely to be adopted by future presidents, include:
Fire critics and perceived enemies. Trump is ousting people across the bureaucracy and not hiding his motivation โ payback. In the past, presidents griped about hostile forces inside government, but rarely acted beyond one-offs. They assumed they lacked the power. But courts are validating a broader presidential authority than had been presumed. Incoming presidents usually fixate on the cabinet. Trump is paving the way for them to instantly resurface huge chunks of government with loyalists.
Punish media companies for critical coverage. Trump has sued several news organizations for stories or even interview edits he disliked. Some of these organizations are settling the cases, enticing Trump and others to make this a permanent weapon. The Pentagon said it'll "rotate" four major news organizations โ The New York Times, NBC News, NPR and Politico โ from their workspace on Correspondents' Corridor beginning Feb. 14, and cycle in several friendly outlets. That's a new level of carrot-and-stick.
Reward political allies with pardons. This has always been done, for sure โ but in smaller doses. Trump's sweeping clemency for Jan. 6 rioters, including people convicted of attacking police, set a new precedent for protecting people who defend your politics. Combine this with former President Biden's preemptive pardon of family members and political allies, and it's hard to see any real limits on setting friends or allies free.
Impunity with immunity. Trump helped shape a Supreme Court that granted all presidents presumed immunity for official acts in office. That codified a level of freedom and presidential power some assumed โ but was never solidified. Now, it is. Fully expect more cases codifying presidential power to land on the Supreme Court docket. Trump wields power with few perceived restraints. Others will follow, especially when they control Congress.
Presidential profits. Presidents and their families can start businesses โ or even currencies โ and profit without restriction or outcry going forward. They always could โ but most steered clear of the appearance of a conflict or profiting off their power while in office. It was seen as beneath the presidency. But Trump started promoting a memecoin three days before taking office โ with paper value that reached tens of billions โ with little outcry. Most Americans didn't realize there are basically no limitations on presidents profiting off their reins of power through new businesses or business deals. Now, they do.
What to watch: Republicans currently rule Washington and the courts โ so they're full, content beneficiaries of all of this. But what happens when Republicans are inevitably out of power?ย
Power in Washington has swung wildly for 20+ years โ Biden had two years of all-Democratic rule ... after first-term Trump had two years of all-GOP rule ... after President Obama had two years of all-Dem rule ... after former President George W. Bush had full GOP control ... after former President Clinton had two years of full Dem control.
Reality check: There's an asymmetry between MAGA and the Democratic Party as it currently exists.
Democrats have a religious devotion to norms and institutions that Republicans simply don't share, and it's a unique feature of Trumpism to despise the "Deep State," mainstream media, and checks on executive power.
Biden campaigned in 2020 on restoring normalcy. The 2028 Democratic nominee might well take a similar tack โ though four years of Trump could push the party in a more brass-knuckle populist direction.
The bottom line: History shows the next Democratic president, with a Democratic Congress, will likely use โ and expand โ many of these powers. Biden did it! Trump did it! So I shall do it, too!
Axios' Zachary Basu contributed reporting.
Go deeper: "Behind the Curtain: Purges, punishments, payback."
Flights throughout the U.S. could experience "residual delays" Sunday morning due to a temporary warning system outage, according to Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy.
The big picture: It is unclear if the outage was tied to the broad changes and deletions across federal sites, which led to several pages and datasets going dark.
Duffy said in a Saturday night statement shared to social media that the Federal Aviation Administration was working to restore the temporary outage of the primary Notice to Air Missions system, which alerts pilots about hazards or "abnormal" information that would impact flight operations.
The latest: Duffy said on CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday that the "lead system" is now "online and working."
There was "minimal disruption" as a result of the outage, he said, adding he wants to "expedite" fixes to the NOTAM system, which he described as "an old system that needs to be upgraded."
Catch up quick: Duffy on Saturday said there was no impact on the National Airspace System because "a backup system is in place."
"We are investigating the root cause and we will provide updates," he wrote.
By the numbers: There have been 657 delays within, into, or out of the country as of Sunday around 9:20am ET, per air traffic tracker Flight Aware.
There have been 64 cancellations within, into, or out of the U.S.
Zoom in: The outage comes days after the fatal midair collision of a regional jet and Black Hawk helicopter in Washington, D.C., the deadliest air carrier crash in the U.S. since November 2001.
Flashback: This is not the first time the Notice to Air Missions system, which communicates hazards like closed runways or airspace restrictions in real time, has gone down.
In 2023, the FAA ordered airlines to pause all domestic departures after an outage.
