President Trump on Saturday imposed across-the-board tariffs on North American allies and China.

Why it matters: After weeks of "will he or won't he," Trump opted for sweeping levies that could have a profound impact on American consumers and trigger a serious trade war.

• The strategy is untested in the modern era. It is likely the nations will retaliate, though the magnitude of any hit back is unknown, as is the ultimate effect on the global economy.

What they're saying: The White House said the tariffs, which take effect on Tuesday, were a response to an "emergency threat" posed by undocumented immigrants and drugs.

• The Trump administration said they would remain in place "until the crisis is alleviated."
• The executive order on Canada includes a clause that says the U.S. may "increase or expand in scope" the tariffs if it retaliates.
• That is likely to be the case; Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to speak on Saturday and announce retaliatory measures.

Zoom in: Mexican and Canadian imports are subject to 25% tariffs — with the exception of energy from Canada, which will face 10% tariffs.

• The White House also announced additional 10% tariffs on for Chinese goods — many of which already face import taxes held over from Trump's first term.
• Business interest and lobbying groups, which have cheered Trump's expected deregulatory and tax policies, released a flurry of statements condemning the orders.
• "We are hopeful a resolution can be quickly reached with our North American neighbors so that crude oil, refined products and petrochemicals are removed from the tariff schedule before consumers feel the impact," Chet Thompson, CEO of energy trade group American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, said in a statement.
• The impact of the tariffs could be passed on to a wide range of everyday consumer products. (Trump insists tariffs are not inflationary, though he conceded Friday they could cause "temporary, short-term disruption.")

Case in point: Most of the U.S. supply of tomatoes, avocados and beer comes from Mexico.

• Auto parts, oil and gas are among the key Canadian exports to the U.S.

The intrigue: Trump is leaning on unprecedented authority to impose tariffs on the largest U.S. trading partners.

• The White House invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a Carter-era law that give the president wide-ranging powers in an emergency.
• The law has never been tapped to impose tariffs and is likely to draw legal scrutiny.

The big picture: The announcement ends days of drama that left domestic industries guessing and sent financial markets reeling.

• Trump has demanded that Canada, Mexico and China curb the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. In the case of Canada and Mexico, he has demanded tighter border controls for immigration as well.
• It's unclear whether compliance with such asks would be enough to remove tariffs.

Flashback: The White House drew up a tariff plan for Colombian imports in recent days, threatening levies unless the nation agreed to accept flights carrying deported immigrants. When Colombia complied, the threats receded.

What we're watching: In effect, Trump has blown up the free-trade deal with Mexico and Canada, the USMCA, that he negotiated in his first term.

• These new tariffs set the scene for the beginnings of a new global trade war.

Editor's Note: This story has been updated with reactions to the executive order.

Trump world 2.0 is moving at a pace that can be hard to follow — and that's intentional. If you missed some key White House or Capitol Hill events of the week, we've got you covered.

The big picture: Donald Trump's second week in office included a surprise federal funding freeze Tuesday that prompted nationwide confusion and a shifting timeline on tariffs across U.S. imports from Canada, Mexico and China set for a Feb. 1 rollout, creating whiplash in financial markets Friday.

• As Axios' Erin Davis reported, much of Trump's activity in the last two weeks has involved a slew of executive orders — more than any modern president has issued in their first two weeks.
• Over in Congress, three of Trump's most controversial Cabinet picks had hearings before Senate committees this week: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Tulsi Gabbard and Kash Patel.

Go deeper: Sign up for Axios' Hill Leaders for our ongoing coverage.

Federal funding freeze and worker buyouts

💰 On Tuesday, the Trump administration announced a surprise, temporary pause of federal grant, loan and other financial assistance programs, effective 5pm ET that same day.

• The move — which required agencies to document whether more than 2,000 programs received funding related to abortion, diversity, undocumented immigrants or climate policy — sent states, nonprofits, schools and other programs scrambling in confusion.
• By the end of the day, a federal judge had temporarily blocked the freeze.

💼 The Trump administration also offered Tuesday to pay federal workers who voluntarily resigned a buyout package that includes pay through Sept. 30, Axios' Marc Caputo and Emily Peck also scooped.

• Millions of workers received an email with the subject line "A Fork in the Road" — the same language Elon Musk used when purging X's workforce after he became owner.

Federal funding freeze

🎯 The White House on Wednesday backtracked on the funding freeze, rescinding the memo that had ordered the temporary pause, though asserting it was "NOT a rescission of the federal funding freeze."

• White House officials had said the freeze would not affect Medicare, Social Security or other direct assistance that Americans "rely on."
• But outages on various websites and the lack of detail or warning itself still caused chaos.

What's next: A federal judge temporarily blocked the funding freeze on Friday, citing a social media post from press secretary Karoline Leavitt as evidence the case should continue.

Trump blames DEI for plane crash

🕯️After the deadliest aviation crash the U.S. has seen in decades, Trump held a press conference Thursday at the White House as the cause remained unknown and a recovery mission was underway.

• Without evidence, the president blamed diversity, equity and inclusion policies and his Democratic predecessors for what he framed as a lower-quality aviation workforce. He later ordered a DEI review of all federal aviation hiring and safety decisions.
• Axios fact-checked the claims. Data shows air traffic controllers and airfield operations specialists are predominately male and white.

The collision between an American Airlines jet and a U.S. Army helicopter over D.C.'s Reagan Airport left 67 people dead across both aircrafts.

Go deeper: What to know about the plane crash victims

Tariff merry-go-round

🧮 Tariffs were coming on Saturday: 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, alongside 10% tariffs on China.

• Then, they weren't, according to Reuters.
• But no, they still are, according to the White House.

No matter what, the tariffs will likely spark retaliation of an unknown magnitude, risking economic pain for businesses and consumer, Axios' Courtenay Brown reports.

DEI scrubbing on federal websites

👀 Some federal web pages tracking issues such as HIV prevention, climate change and transgender care went down as of Friday afternoon.

• Centers for Disease Control and Prevention sites or datasets were scrubbed of information on ending gender-based violence, contraception for health care providers and AtlasPlus, which housed HIV/AIDS, Hepatitis and STD.
• The list goes on.

More from Axios:

• Biden-era consumer agency head fired by Trump White House
• U.S. conducts strikes against ISIS operatives in Somalia

Ken Martin was elected on Saturday to serve as the next chair of the Democratic National Committee, putting him at the helm of a party trying to rebuild its image after a disappointing 2024 cycle.

Why it matters: Martin, the longtime chair of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, wants to help the party get "back to basics" with a revamped messaging strategy aimed at winning back working-class voters who have drifted to the right.

• Martin, considered a favorite heading into the Saturday vote, beat out fellow midwesterner Wisconsin Democratic Party chair Ben Wikler and half a dozen other candidates.

Driving the news: In the crowded race for DNC chair, Martin's pitch zeroed on his winning record as chair of the Minnesota DFL. In the 14 years in charge, his party did not lose a single statewide race, giving him a 25-0 record.

• Martin wants to take his winning state record to the national level, a message that clearly resonated with Democrats still reeling from losses up and down the ballot on Nov. 5.
• "My record is unrivaled and unmatched in terms of winning elections and building power around the issues we care about," Martin told the Minnesota Reformer.
• Martin demonstrated his strong fundraising prowess as DFL chair, a skill that he'll now need to leverage at the national level. Fundraising is one of the biggest jobs for the DNC chair.

Between the lines: As a longtime party leader and DNC vice chair, Martin locked up support among party officials across the country but bigger names were split over who to support.

• Wikler drew the public backing of former Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other big names like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

The big picture: The race for DNC chair comes after an election cycle that put President Trump in the White House and Republicans in control of both houses of Congress.

• As DNC chair, Martin will help lead the party's strategy and messaging, including by appearing on media himself to represent the party.
• He will also have influence over setting the order for the 2028 Democratic primary, which could see Minnesota moving up its spot in the calendar.

Go deeper: Minnesota DFL chair Ken Martin in the running to lead DNC

Axios' Torey Van Oot contributed reporting.

The U.S. military conducted an air strike on Saturday against ISIS operatives in Somalia, President Trump said.

Why it matters: This is the first military action Trump has ordered since assuming office as commander-in-chief 10 days ago.

Driving the news: "I ordered precision Military air strikes on the Senior ISIS Attack Planner and other terrorists he recruited and led in Somalia," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

• He said the ISIS operatives were hiding in caves and "threatened the United States and our Allies."
• Trump claimed the airstrike destroyed the caves and "killed many terrorists without, in any way, harming civilians."
• Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said in a statement the strike in the Golis mountains was conducted by the U.S. military Africa command in coordination with the government of Somalia.
• He said the Pentagon's initial assessment is that "multiple operatives were killed in the airstrikes and no civilians were harmed."

What they're saying: "The message to ISIS and all others who would attack Americans is that "WE WILL FIND YOU, AND WE WILL KILL YOU!", Trump wrote.

America has never witnessed so many people purged or punished by an incoming president so quickly. White House sources tell us this is just the beginning.

• On Friday night, a Defense Department memo said four major news organizations — The New York Times, NBC News, NPR and Politico — will have to move out of their longtime workspace on Correspondents' Corridor in the Pentagon, an unprecedented move, under a new Annual Media Rotation Program for Pentagon Press Corps.
• "Hope those hit pieces on Pete were worth it," a source close to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, but not involved in the decision-making, told us.

Why it matters: President Trump long promised to oust and punish people his administration deemed political enemies or unfair critics. His administration is doing this faster, deeper and wider than many in Washington expected.

• Democrats on the Hill are warning that Trump is sometimes acting outside the law — and without regard for government services Americans rely on, and for the American tradition that a president must be subject to checks, balances, scrutiny and criticism.

The big picture: The danger in moving so fast, so wide is losing vital, seasoned talent in hard-to-fill, essential governmental roles. It sets a precedent for future presidents to quickly remake the government in their image or ideological mold — and extend the power of the presidency.

• Trump advisers see this much differently, of course. They argue the government is filled with anti-Trump activists and bureaucratic lifers who can be eliminated with little cost. The depth and breadth of actions in the first two weeks show the results.

Zoom out: In the first 12 days of Trump II, the president also revoked clearances and government security protection for several former officials.

• In a move with city-by-city repercussions across America, Trump temporarily froze trillions of dollars in federal grants and loans. A second federal judge, in Rhode Island, on Friday ordered a temporary pause.
• Trump also offered about 2 million federal employees the chance to resign and get paid through Sept. 30 under a "deferred resignation deal."

Zoom in: This is unprecedented territory for Washington governance. Take the early strikes against the FBI and its role in investigating and prosecuting those involved in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

• Not only did Trump take the unprecedented step of pardoning virtually all involved, including violent criminals. His team is hunting down those involved in the probe, ousting many. Some of these prosecutors and officials didn't choose the case but were assigned to do it, did their job, and moved on.

Acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove identified more than a half-dozen FBI senior executives who were ordered to retire or be fired by Monday, AP reports.

• Bove asked for the names and titles of FBI employees who worked on investigations into the Capitol riot — a list the bureau's acting director said could number in the thousands.
• "Forcing out both agents and prosecutors who worked on Jan. 6 cases would amount to a wide-scale assault on the Justice Department," the N.Y. Times notes (gift link).

Then consider the Friday night announcement about Pentagon workspace for top news organizations. Every administration has the option of who gets seats and who doesn't.

• But the message to mainstream media was unmistakable and not masked. The Pentagon said invitations will go out to the New York Post, One America News Network and Breitbart (Trump-friendly outlets), plus Huffington Post (which doesn't have a Pentagon correspondent and didn't request a space).
• NBC News said in a statement: "We're disappointed by the decision to deny us access to a broadcasting booth at the Pentagon that we've used for many decades. Despite the significant obstacles this presents to our ability to gather and report news in the national public interest, we will continue to report with the same integrity and rigor NBC News always has."
• NPR said in a statement to Axios: "This decision interferes with the ability of millions of Americans to directly hear from Pentagon leadership, and with NPR's public interest mission to serve Americans who turn to our network of local public media stations in all 50 states. NPR will continue to report with vigor and integrity on the transformation this Administration has promised to deliver. NPR urges the Pentagon to expand the offices available to press within the building so that all outlets covering the Pentagon receive equal access."

The bottom line: Moves like this are designed to send signals and make plain the consequences of tough coverage.

• Go deeper: Some federal websites go dark.

Editor's note: Updates with NPR statement.

President Trump spoke on Saturday with Egyptian President Abdul Fatah el-Sisi to discuss his idea of moving Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt and Jordan in order to rebuild the enclave.

Why it matters: Trump's comments about moving Palestinians from Gaza alarmed the Egyptians, who see the transfer of Palestinians from Gaza to their territory as a threat to national security. Trump's plan would also involve forcibly displacing two million people.

• At the beginning of the war, when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu raised this idea, Sisi made it clear that such a move would jeopardize the peace agreement between Israel and Egypt.

What they're saying: Cairo confirmed the call and said Sisi invited Trump to visit Egypt as soon as possible in order to "strengthen strategic relations between the two countries and discuss the complex issues and crises facing the Middle East," as well as to participate in the opening of the new Egyptian Museum.

• Trump extended an open invitation to Sisi to visit Washington, the Egyptian presidency said.
• Sisi's spokesperson said the call was positive and the leaders discussed "the importance of continuing to implement the first and second phases of the Gaza ceasefire deal in order to stabilize the ceasefire."

Driving the news: Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One last Saturday that he wants Jordan and Egypt to take Palestinians from Gaza into their territory "temporarily or long term" while Gaza is being "cleaned up."

• U.S. officials said Trump's comments were connected to the immense destruction in Gaza and the need for a huge rebuilding effort.
• White House envoy Steve Witkoff told Axios this process could take 10-15 years and stressed that currently Gaza "is uninhabitable."

Over the last week, Trump has spoken three times in public about his idea of moving Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt and Jordan.

• Trump said he believes Egypt and Jordan will eventually agree to take Palestinians from Gaza to reciprocate for the assistance they have received from his administration over the years.
• Egypt was the only country other than Israel that received a waiver from Trump's decision to freeze all U.S. foreign aid.

The other side: Sisi and Jordan's foreign minister both said publicly in recent days that they oppose Trump's idea.

• On Saturday, after a meeting of their foreign ministers in Cairo, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, the Palestinian Authority and the Arab League issued a joint statement rejecting Trump's idea.
• "The participants stressed the importance of the international community's concerted efforts to plan and implement a comprehensive reconstruction process in the Gaza Strip, as soon as possible, in a way that ensures the Palestinians remain on their land," they wrote.
• The Arab foreign ministers stressed they oppose any attempt to infringe on the rights of the Palestinians in Gaza to their land "through evacuating that land of its owners through displacement or encouraging the transfer or uprooting of Palestinians from their land in any way or under any circumstances or justifications."
• They added that such a move will threaten stability, continue the conflict in the region and "undermine the chances of peace."

Keith Siegel, an American citizen who was held hostage by Hamas for 484 days, was released on Saturday as part of the Gaza ceasefire deal.

Why it matters: Siegel is the first American hostage who was released by Hamas since November 2023.

• Six American hostages are still held by Hamas, two of them are still alive.

Driving the news: Siegel, 65, was kidnapped by Hamas from his home in the Kibbutz of Kfar Aza during the October 7 attack with his wife Aviva Siegel.

• Aviva Siegel was released in the first hostage deal in November.
• Two other Israel hostages — Ofer Kalderon and Yarden Bibas — were also released on Saturday.
• Bibas' wife and two babies were also kidnapped by Hamas on October 7. Hamas claimed they have been killed while in captivity by an IDF air strike. The IDF didn't confirm that. They are still held in Gaza.

What we're watching: American hostage Sagui Dekel-Chen is expected to be released later this month as part of the first phase of the deal.

• American hostage Edan Alexander will be released only if Israel and Hamas reach an agreement on the second phase of the deal.
• Negotiations on the second phase are expected to begin on Monday.
• Four Americans who were killed on October 7 and their bodies taken to Gaza — Etay Chen, Omer Neutra and Judi Weinstein and Haggai — will only be returned on the third phase of the deal.

State of play: About 180 Palestinian prisoners, among them those who were convicted of murdering Israelis, were released on Saturday.

• As part of the ceasefire deal, the Rafah crossing was opened for the first time on Saturday after almost a year of being shut down.
• 50 wounded Palestinians, including children, left Gaza through the crossing on Saturday for medical treatment in Egypt.
• The crossing was opened without any Hamas involvement and with Palestinian staffers who are affiliated with the Palestinian Authority together with European Union monitors.
• This is the first time the Palestinian Authority has resumed its activity in Gaza since the Hamas military coup in 2007.

Black History Month arrives under a new threat as President Trump aims to eliminate diversity, equity, and inclusion efforts and establish federal guidance against heritage months.

Why it matters: Conservatives argue Black history lessons induce guilt, while critics of Trump's agenda view the president's work as an effort to erase hard truths.

Driving the news: As every president since 1976 has done, President Trump signed a proclamation recognizing Black History Month on Friday.

Yes, but: The proclamation comes after weeks of targeting DEI initiatives through decision making and rhetoric. In his first days back in office, President Trump dismantled federal DEI programs, halting efforts to bolster diversity and inclusion.

• The executive order ended programs to bolster diversity and inclusion on the federal level in schools.
• The orders also signal possible legal challenges to private sector diversity efforts, a move civil rights groups say could dismantle decades of progress.
• Marc H. Morial, president of the National Urban League, called this an "assault on the Civil Rights Movement" and led discussions on a legal response.

When asked about reports that the Defense Intelligence Agency discouraged Black History Month programming to align with Trump's views on DEI, press secretary Karoline Leavitt noted the proclamation as the president's planned recognition of Black History Month.

• It touts the achievements of Frederick Douglass, Harriet Tubman, Thomas Sowell, Justice Clarence Thomas and Tiger Woods.

The big picture: What some see as an effort to erase "wokeness" and diversity efforts (DEI), is a battle over how America accepts, acknowledges or edits its past.

The push to erase Black history isn't theoretical—it's already happening.

• The Tuskegee Airmen, once American heroes, nearly became collateral damage in a political battle. The Air Force initially tried to remove their references from its curriculum but reversed course days later.

Zoom in: Edmond W. Davis, a scholar of the Tuskegee Airmen, says their legacy should not be swept into DEI politics.

• "For the men and women of the Tuskegee Airmen, this isn't DEI—it's plain old history. Military history. American history," Davis said.
• He argues their contributions stretch beyond race: "We focus heavily on African Americans, but there were also women, Latinos—the first wave of civil rights pioneers before MLK and Rosa Parks even got up. They were fighting."

Zoom out: Some historians argue Black history is being framed as controversial, much like the fight over critical race theory. Attempts to minimize it distort historical truths, skew public understanding, and turn facts into political weapons, they argue.

Martha S. Jones, a history professor at the Stavros Niarchos Foundation Agora Institute at Johns Hopkins University, argues that although DEI restrictions, anti-wokeness, book bans, and curriculum limitations restrict access, history cannot be erased.

• "As heinous as book bans are, they're not making history disappear," she says. "The fight over history has always existed, but so has the resistance."

Jones highlights Carter G. Woodson, who created Negro History Week in 1926, decades before Ford's proclamation and its expansion to Black History Month—not due to wide acceptance, but because history was suppressed.

• Black History Month was not a government gift; it was a hard-won effort by Woodson during Jim Crow.
• "Woodson didn't wait for permission," Jones said. "He established institutions, authored books, and ensured Black history was told despite barriers."

The bottom line: Jones said it is important to remember that "no one gave us permission" to have Black history.

• "I don't want to be cheeky, but I have news for folks who imagine they can declare Black History Month done," she said. "Black folks have been told that before, and we have persisted. We will persist. We will continue to know our history, research our history, teach our history, capture our history, and celebrate our history."
• "It doesn't live in the White House. It lives in us."

Editor's note: This article and headline have been updated to provide additional details and clarity about President Trump's Black History Month proclamation.

President Trump and his allies —including the online right, Vice President Vance and Sen. Tom Cotton — are mobilizing to try to boost Tulsi Gabbard's nomination as director of national intelligence.

Why it matters: The MAGA machine that helped Pete Hegseth narrowly win confirmation as defense secretary last week is now focused on Gabbard. Trump's team believes she faces the most headwinds of any of his current Cabinet nominees.

• "We feel OK about Tulsi's chances," one senior White House official told Axios. "But we want to feel better."

State of play: Trump plans to start making calls to Republican senators on the Intelligence Committee, where Gabbard faced tough questions Thursday about her past views questioning surveillance tactics and defending Edward Snowden.

• Losing just one GOP vote on the committee — which includes nine Republicans and eight Democrats — could sink her confirmation.
• Gabbard refused to call Snowden a "traitor" for leaking secret intelligence documents before ending up in Russia. That appeared to bother Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), whom Trump's team is most worried about.
• But Gabbard seemed to please another swing-vote Republican, Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, by saying she wouldn't ask Trump to pardon Snowden. Collins' reaction was a relief to Trump's team because of her penchant for bucking the president more than most other GOP senators.

If that sounded like a deal in the making, Trump's team wasn't ruling it out.

• "The president isn't really talking about pardoning Snowden, but if that's a guarantee they want to get Tulsi confirmed, the president will have those conversations," the White House adviser said.

Catch up quick: Trump has been in a feud with the U.S. intelligence community since his first administration. He sees Gabbard — a former Democratic House member from Hawaii with similar disdain for the so-called "Deep State" — as a disruptor and change agent.

• Trump's Day 1 executive order, "Ending the Weaponization of the Federal Government" specifically calls on the director of national intelligence to "review the activities of the intelligence community over the last 4 years and identify any instances" of political prosecutions and investigations.

Zoom in: Vance and his team worked closely with Gabbard on her presentation to the committee. And Vance, a former Ohio senator, has been Trump's go-to representative to the Senate for all of his prominent nominees.

• Cotton, the Arkansas senator who chairs the intelligence panel, committed to getting Gabbard the votes she needed. The two are friends from their days serving in the House.
• The Senate Republican Conference, also led by Cotton, has turned its X page into a pro-Gabbard "war room," an operative involved in the process noted.
• Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said it's unlikely Gabbard would get a full vote by the Senate if she doesn't win a majority of the votes on the Intelligence Committee.

Zoom in: Many MAGA diehards outside of the administration also are pushing for Gabbard because they see her — and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump's Health and Human Services nominee and another former Democrat — as representing how Trump is growing his coalition beyond the GOP.

• Gabbard and Kennedy were dubbed "Blue MAGA" in Trump world because of the key roles they played on the campaign trail, touring the country on Trump's behalf.

Donald Trump Jr. also has been involved in touting the pair. He told Axios in a written statement that both are "highly qualified" and are "also vital to the GOP's new governing coalition."

• "Unfortunately, there are still a few establishment Republicans in the Beltway who don't seem to get that," he said. "I think they are severely underestimating the backlash that would occur from our voters if either of them were blocked from being confirmed."
• Tucker Carlson, Judicial Watch's Tom Fitton, and Turning Point Action's Charlie Kirk also are pushing Gabbard on social media.
• "We are 100% serious," Turning Point Action spokesman Andrew Kolvet said in a statement. "GOP senators in red states will open themselves up to well-funded, well-organized primary challenges if they stand in the way of confirming the Cabinet the president wants and the American people voted for."

There is a wrecking ball coming for the norms of global trade.

• President Trump is expected to disrupt the largely friendly economic relationship between our North American neighbors with high tariffs that would blow up his own trade deal.
• He plans to up the ante on U.S.-China trade relations too and pledged more tariffs ahead.

Why it matters: Trade policy moved more slowly in Trump 1.0. The measures send a warning that this time tariffs will be broader, implemented faster and wielded to notch economic wins.

Between the lines: The trade orders expected Saturday put Trump's presidential campaign promises into motion.

• He will lean on untested powers — which might be tested in court — to impose tariffs and reshape trade in a way he believes will better serve the nation.
• Trump made a quick comment to reporters in the Oval Office Friday, one that offered an important peek into his trade war philosophy. He described putting up "a wall" to help shut out foreign competition and bring production of certain goods stateside: "The wall is a tariff wall."

The intrigue: The gamble risks damaging the economy and knocking the stock market boom off course. Then there are the unknown effects that might come from retaliatory measures.

• The expected tariffs hit 40% of U.S. imports, from avocados to auto parts to oil.
• Trump says the tariffs are a response to the incoming flow of fentanyl. In the case of Canada and Mexico, he claims insufficient control over immigrants entering the U.S.
• The tariff off-ramp is unclear; unlike Colombia, Trump said he isn't looking for concessions.

What they're saying: Trump's election win was helped by inflation-hating voters. The tariffs risk aggravating a problem he pledged to fix.

• Trump conceded "there could be some temporary short-term disruption, and people will understand that," a tacit acknowledgement that as tariffs come on, prices will rise — which he had just denied moments before.

Threat level: More than 60% of imported vegetables are from Mexico as of 2023, according to the Department of Agriculture.

• Even if a vehicle is manufactured stateside, the auto sector relies on inputs from Canada and Mexico.
• It's unclear how the higher cost of those goods will ripple through the supply chain — or if companies can adjust quick enough to skirt it.
• The Tax Foundation says tariffs on Canada and Mexico are like an additional $670 annual tax on U.S. households.

Science fiction writer Octavia Butler wrote in her 1993 novel "Parable of the Sower" that Feb. 1, 2025, would be a time of fires, violence, racism, addiction, climate change, social inequality and an authoritarian "President Donner."

• That day is today.

The big picture: This Black History Month, which begins this year on a day of Butler's dystopian vision, Axios will examine what the next 25 years may hold for Black Americans based on the progress in the first quarter of this century.

• Through her fiction, Butler foresaw U.S. society's direction and the potential for civil societies to collapse thanks to the weight of economic disparities and climate change — with blueprints for hope.
• Afrofuturist writers today interpret Butler's work as metaphorical warnings that appear to be coming true and a call to action.

State of play: This year, the month-long celebration of Black American accomplishments and perseverance will be commemorated amid uncertainty after the Trump administration ordered government agencies to end DEI policies.

• The move is confusing some agencies on whether Black history can even be acknowledged this year while the nation deals with rising hate crimes, the aftermath of California wildfires, a fentanyl epidemic and a new president who blames the country's ills on workforce diversity.
• Meanwhile, states like Alabama have passed bills limiting the discussion of race and Black history in public schools.

Zoom in: In "Parable of the Sower," the novel's 15-year-old protagonist, Lauren Olamina, writes a simple journal entry: Saturday, February 1, 2025: "We had a fire today. People worry so much about fire."

• What unfolds in the pages that follow is a dystopian world surrounding the gated, racially mixed, fictional community of Robledo, California.
• A new drug forces addicts to set fires to communities, who then rob and rape victims. Unhoused people roam the streets and are forced to steal to survive. Hurricanes, fires and violence push Americans to flee north to Canada.
• President Donner, like President Trump, promises to restore the country to its former glory.
• Racially mixed couples, like Olamina's Black/Chicano family, are vulnerable to attacks, and her parents, both PhD holders, have limited job opportunities.

Yes, but: Black, white, Latino and Asian Americans fall in love despite the racism outside the walls.

• They arm themselves and protect each other.
• They share history and books in defiance of attempted erasure.

What they're saying: "She was trying to warn us of a possible future that she saw coming if we did not change," Jesse Holland, editor of the anthology, "Captain America: The Shield of Sam Wilson," tells Axios.

• "With her predictions, we can see the awful visage of the future that is getting closer and closer every day."
• Holland said that includes the wildfires in California, the Trump administration moving away from Black History Month and the U.S. "seemingly not caring" about some of its citizens.
• "The hope in this is that we as a people in the United States have survived worse," Holland said. "We are a people of perseverance."

Zoom out: Butler often reminded readers she wasn't a prophet but part of a science fiction artist community asking "what ifs," Sheree Renée Thomas, author of the upcoming short story collection Mojorhythm, tells Axios.

• "She was looking at the racial dynamics and the class dynamics deepening and worsening over time. And she asked, 'If we don't solve any of these problems, what will society look like?"

The intrigue: Many scholars and readers believe the fictional community of Robledo is based on the actual community of racially mixed Altadena, California — a place leveled by the recent California wildfires.

• In the novel, Robledo is destroyed by a fire and then raided by scavengers and looters. So was Altadena.
• Butler is buried in Altadena. Her cemetery caught fire, but her resting place was spared.

A small jet crashed Friday evening after taking off from Northeast Philadelphia Airport and seven people have died, city officials said Saturday.

The big picture: The plane crash followed the country's deadliest aviation disaster in more than 20 years, when an American Airlines passenger jet carrying 64 people collided with a U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopter carrying three soldiers on Wednesday night outside of D.C.

Driving the news: In the Philadelphia collision, a Learjet 55 crashed around 6:10pm, the city said.

• The medical jet, operated by Jet Rescue Air Ambulance, took off from Northeast Philadelphia Airport and was bound for the Springfield-Branson airport in Missouri, and then Mexico.
• The jet was carrying a pediatric patient who had been treated at Shriners Children's Hospital in Philly, and who was returning home to Mexico with her mother, escorted by four crew members.
• "I know that the team there [at Shriners] in Philadelphia [Friday] had a sendoff for her," Mel Bower, a spokesperson for the hospital, told NBC10. "It's always a meaningful but yet emotional time for us. It's really just been compounded by the tragic ending."
• According to the city's statement, "Flight logs show the plane was in the air for only a minute before it crashed."
• A post on X from Mexico's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the six people on the flight were Mexican nationals.

The latest: A motorist on the ground was killed and at least 19 others were injured, Mayor Cherelle Parker said during a press briefing Saturday.

• A spokesperson for Temple University Hospital told the Philadelphia Inquirer that it had treated and released three people, and three others were still hospitalized in fair condition.

State of play: All fires caused by the crash were extinguished, and the fire marshal was investigating those blazes, the city's Managing Director Adam Thiel said Saturday.

• Fire officials are going "door to door" canvassing homes over a four- to six-block radius for damage. The debris field could span several miles, officials said.
• Gas and electric officials are working to restore power to homes impacted by the crash. Parker encouraged residents to avoid the area, stay home and report debris to officials.
• Cottman Avenue between Roosevelt Boulevard and Busleton Avenue will be closed for an extended period of time, according to Philly's Office of Emergency Management. Drivers should avoid the area.
• The city has opened a shelter at Samuel Fels High School (5500 Langdon Street) in partnership with the Red Cross for anyone impacted by the crash.

Gov. Josh Shapiro said at a press briefing Friday night that the tragedy drew out "the best of Philly."

• "We saw neighbor helping neighbor."

What they're saying: "We heard an explosion and then saw the aftermath of flames and smoke," one eyewitness told 6ABC. "Common sense told me that I not get close to it and very quickly, just a cavalry of police and first responders. God bless them for going into harm's way."

Zoom out: Philadelphia International Airport and Northeast Philadelphia Airport are both open, according to a spokesperson for the airports.

• The FAA and NTSB will investigate the medical jet crash, officials said.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with statements and additional details throughout.

President Trump's planned tariffs could effectively tax the average U.S. household an extra $830 this year, an analysis from the nonpartisan nonprofit Tax Foundation finds.

Why it matters: Economists fear the tariffs will be a net negative for households and the broader economy.

By the numbers: The foundation estimated Friday that Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as 10% tariffs on China, would shrink the economic output of the U.S. by 0.4% and increase taxes by $1.2 trillion between 2025 and 2034.

• That's on top of recent data showing that tariffs could threaten Americans' economic gains of recent years.

Zoom in: The researchers also found that tariffs Trump levied during his previous presidency — and which former president Biden enacted during his own — have hurt the economy.

• The Tax Foundation's analysis suggests the first Trump administration imposed nearly $80 billion in new taxes via tariffs between 2018 and 2019.
• The Biden admin retained most of those tariffs, and last May, announced tariff hikes on an additional $18 billion of Chinese goods, including semiconductors, which the researchers said amounted to a tax increase of $3.6 billion.

Zoom out: The Tax Foundation previously found that both Trump's and Biden's tariffs raised prices, reduced output, lowered employment and produced a "net negative impact on the U.S. economy."

• In a letter to lawmakers last month, the Congressional Budget Office also estimated that the tariffs would spur price hikes on consumer goods, at least initially, though they added that after 2025, the tariffs would not have any "additional significant effects on prices."
• The CBO also noted that poorer households would experience the largest drop in purchasing power.

The bottom line: The ripple effects of Trump's tariffs may seem abstract and far off for many Americans, but that could change quickly.

A federal judge Friday temporarily blocked the Trump administration's bid to freeze federal spending, citing a social media post from press secretary Karoline Leavitt as evidence the case should continue.

Why it matters: Judge John J. McConnell Jr. of the federal district court in Rhode Island granted several states' requests to block the spending freeze, the second judge to halt the measure after a district court judge in Washington, D.C., also put the brakes on it.

• McConnell didn't buy the Trump administration's claim that a subsequent memo from the Office of Management and Budget ended the spending freeze, making the states' lawsuit moot.
• Instead, McConnell in his temporary restraining order quoted Leavitt's post on X that said President Trump's spending orders "on federal funding remain in full force and effect, and will be rigorously implemented."

Context: The Office of Management and Budget sent a memo to federal agencies Monday night directing them to "temporarily pause all activities related to obligation or disbursement of all Federal financial assistance."

• Several states, including New York, California and Massachusetts, sued to block the spending freeze.
• In a follow-up memo Tuesday, the White House said the pause wasn't "across-the-board" but instead only to target areas like federal diversity programs.

What they're saying: Citing the Impoundment Act of 1974, McConnell rejected the argument that freezing federal spending is necessary to ensure it aligns with Trump's political priorities.

• "The Executive Branch has a duty to align federal spending and action with the will of the people as expressed through congressional appropriations, not through Presidential priorities," he wrote.
• Further, McConnell said a temporary restraining order is warranted because Leavitt's X post suggests the Trump administration is still moving forward with the spending freeze.
• McConnell's restraining order also prohibits the federal government "from reissuing, adopting, implementing, or otherwise giving effect to the OMB Directive under any other name or title."

A new White House video features mothers whose children's deaths were linked to undocumented immigrants rebuking actress Selena Gomez for her Instagram post in which she cried over President Trump's plans for mass deportations.

Why it matters: The video is the latest sign that Trump's new administration will use campaign-like tactics — and the power of social media — to talk tough on immigration and other divisive issues it sees as political winners.

• "You don't know who you're crying for," Tammy Nobles, an "Angel Mom" whose daughter, Kayla Hamilton, was killed in July 2022 by a gang member, says in the video, addressing Gomez.
• "What about our children who were brutally murdered and raped and beat to death and left on the floor by these illegal immigrants?"

Catch up quick: Gomez, the granddaughter of undocumented immigrants, posted her video to her 422 million followers Monday, bemoaning the Trump-ordered raids on unauthorized immigrants.

• "All my people are getting attacked, the children. I don't understand," she said in the post, which was quickly deleted — but not before becoming a viral sensation.
• "I'm so sorry, I wish I could do something but I can't. I don't know what to do. I'll try everything, I promise."

Trump critics and others — including rapper Flavor Flav and Geraldo Rivera — defended Gomez. But she drew scorn across conservative social media and from figures such as Trump border czar Tom Homan and pro-Trump influencer Charlie Kirk.

• Gomez has lost more than 800,000 Instagram followers this week, amid the conservative backlash.

Zoom in: The White House's new video features Nobles and two other "Angel Moms," who became centerpieces of Trump's 2024 campaign. The women are shown reacting to Gomez's video with a mixture of disbelief and anger.

• "It's hard to believe that it's actually genuine and real because she's an actress," Alexis Nungaray, whose 12-year-old daughter, Jocelyn, was killed in June 2024, says in the video.
• "I just feel like it's a ruse to deceive people and to garner sympathy for lawlessness," says Patty Morin, whose daughter, Rachel, was killed in August 2023.

Zoom out: Trump has made targeting illegal immigration a central part of his platform since he launched his first campaign for president in 2015.

• Less than two weeks into his second term, he's ordered immigration raids across the country as part of a plan to deport "millions" of undocumented immigrants, vowed to use the military to help boost border security and carry out deportations, and announced plans to detain 30,000 immigrants at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
• On Monday, Immigrations and Customs Enforcement announced it had arrested more than 3,500 unauthorized immigrants during Trump's first week in office.

Several federal websites tracking climate science and health care issues like HIV prevention and transgender care were down as of Friday afternoon.

Why it matters: The sites included topics like contraception, transgender issues and climate change that President Trump and Republicans have repeatedly targeted.

• The administration immediately began changing White House websites after his inauguration.
• The U.S. Census Bureau website was also down as of Friday afternoon.

Between the lines: Trump was asked on Friday about reports that government websites were going to be shut down in compliance with an executive order on DEI content.

• "It doesn't sound like a bad idea to me," he said. "DEI would have ruined our country, and now it's dead. I think DEI is dead, so if they want to scrub the websites, that's OK with me."
• The Trump administration did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment.

By the numbers: As of Friday morning, 305,578 datasets were available on data.gov, which houses the government's open data.

• On Jan. 20, that website had 307,854 datasets available, per the Internet Archive.

State of play: The following Centers for Disease Control and Prevention sites or datasets were scrubbed as of Friday afternoon, though it's not immediately clear what day they were removed:

• The Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System
• AtlasPlus, which housed HIV/AIDS, Hepatitis and STD information
• A contraception page for health care providers
• A page on ending gender-based violence
• Evidence supporting recommendations for HPV vaccination harmonization across genders, ages 22 through 26 years
• Heart disease death rates by gender, by county, Florida
• Information about transgender and gender diverse people (archived Friday morning)
• Pages related to the HIV prevention drug PrEP
• Social vulnerability index, related to demographic and socioeconomic factors adversely affecting communities
• Health Disparities Among LGBTQ Youth
• Creating Safe Schools for LGBTQ+ Youth
• Safer Food Choices for Pregnant People

Between the lines: Health and Human Services and National Institutes of Health pages were down, too, including:

• An NIH page for the sexual and gender minority research office
• An HHS page for Protecting the Rights of Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, Queer, and Intersex (LGBTQI+) People

A Department of State website formerly directed toward LGBTQI+ travelers now reads "LGB" travel information, removing reference to other gender identities.

Context: Trump on Jan. 22 ordered key federal health agencies to pause all external communications.

• He's targeted transgender health care in several executive orders.
• He also pulled the U.S. from the World Health Organization.

What they're saying: "The removal of HIV- and LGBTQ-related resources from the websites of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other health agencies is deeply concerning and creates a dangerous gap in scientific information and data to monitor and respond to disease outbreaks," the Infectious Diseases Society of America said in a statement.

Zoom out: USDA websites that were down as of Friday afternoon included:

• The climate change homepage and resources
• A page on climate change and its effects

Catch up quick: Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement, which takes a year, and targeted Biden administration climate protections.

• USDA employees were ordered to delete landing pages on climate change from the agency's website and document climate change references for further review, Politico reported.

Go deeper: Tracking Trump's executive orders: What he's signed so far

Editor's note: This story has been updated with developments.

Senate Republicans are holding their breath over President Trump's tariffs, which kick in Saturday against Canada, Mexico and China.

Why it matters: Many senators spent months telling Axios they saw the move from Trump more as a negotiating tactic. But some were concerned about what would happen if he followed through.

🚨 Now, sweeping 25% tariffs start this weekend on Canadian and Mexican imports — and 10% on Chinese goods, the White House said Friday. All three countries have vowed to retaliate against broad tariffs.

• Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told Axios in August that "across-the-board tariffs is not something I have been for in the past." Thune is open to the selective use of tariffs.
• Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) described Trump's tariffs promises as potentially "problematic."
• Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), a former Senate Commerce Committee chair, also told Axios in August he's listening, but "not convinced that's the best approach."

Between the lines: Senators often cite concerns about tariffs leading to inflated prices for Americans — after a campaign cycle where Republicans repeatedly said former President Biden's policies led to inflation.

Zoom in: More tenured senators, especially free traders, have learned the value of waiting instead of staking out positions Trump can upend at any moment.

• Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is taking a "wait-and-see attitude," he told Reuters. Iowa is a big farm goods exporter.
• "Normally I'd be stronger in my comments because I am a free trader. I used to be in the majority when free trading was a majority of the Congress, but now I am in the minority," he said.

😈 The newer senators are on Trump's side, and they're content to let him cook.

• "Everybody runs through the streets saying, 'The sky is falling! The sky is falling!' but it doesn't fall," Sen. Jim Justice (R-W.V.) told Reuters.

Zoom out: The list of surprised leaders stretches beyond the Senate.

• "I don't believe that will happen," House Speaker Mike Johnson said earlier this week about across-the-board tariffs.

This week's midair collision between a commercial plane and an Army helicopter in Washington, D.C., underscores the complexity of the National Airspace System — and that's before lots of drones and electric air taxis are added to the mix.

Why it matters: Despite Wednesday's tragedy, the Federal Aviation Administration has a stellar safety record when it comes to commercial aviation.

• But as people travel in record numbers, and drones and new types of aircraft take to the skies, managing all that congestion will become more challenging for an air traffic system that's already overextended.

Catch up quick: Companies like Joby Aviation, Archer Aviation and Beta Technologies are preparing to bring electric air taxi services to cities including New York and Los Angeles within a couple of years.

• Air taxis would relieve road congestion, help the environment and make people's lives easier by whisking commuters over traffic in quiet, clean, speedy vehicles, the companies say.
• The new battery-powered aircraft are called eVTOLs — for electric vertical takeoff and landing — and are a mix between a helicopter and plane.
• Multiple electric rotors help them take off and land vertically, but less noisily than a traditional chopper. Once airborne, they fly more like traditional planes.
• They'll have a human pilot initially, but could eventually fly autonomously, with ground-based monitors.

Reality check: It will be years — perhaps even a decade — before large fleets of air taxis are zipping passengers across cities and suburbs.

• "At the very beginning these operations are not going to change the operations of a city," advanced air mobility expert Sergio Cecutta, founder of SMG Consulting, told Axios.
• On-demand air transportation will start slowly in 2026 or 2027, he said, with just a handful of air taxis in operation.
• By the mid-2030s, however, there could be thousands of eVTOLs in the sky, which is why the industry and FAA are working to develop an unmanned traffic management system for urban air mobility.
• "We're not just going to throw more stuff in the same pot and not expect it to overflow," Cecutta said.

The tragedy in D.C. will not upend the industry's path toward innovation, says former acting FAA administrator Billy Nolen, now chief safety officer at Archer.

• "There is no reason to believe this incident will have any impact on the timeline for the FAA to certify eVTOL," he told Axios.
• "What it does reiterate is that we need to make sure we work together to integrate eVTOL into the airspace in a responsible and thoughtful manner."

Zoom in: Reagan National Airport has the country's busiest runway with more than 800 daily takeoffs and landings — about one every minute — on its main strip.

• Military helicopters, sometimes carrying government VIPs, routinely share the air space with passenger planes.
• Last year, despite worries about overcapacity, Congress approved an expansion to Reagan airport, adding five more long-haul daily flights.

By the numbers: While D.C.'s situation is unique, congestion is a problem at many airports.

• There are about 5,000 airports in the U.S., but the vast majority of air traffic flies in and out of 30 major hubs.
• The FAA, which has about 14,000 air traffic controllers, said in October it had hired 1,800 new controllers. But due to attrition and retirements, the net increase was just 36, The Air Current reported.
• They manage more than 45,000 flights a day and up to 5,400 planes in the air at peak times.

Zoom out: Besides commercial jets, private planes and military aircraft, the FAA also has to manage the impact of the growing space industry.

• There were a record 259 rocket launches in 2024 — each one requiring an interruption or redirection of commercial air traffic.
• SpaceX CEO Elon Musk's ambition is 1,000 launches per year.

Drone activity is increasing too, with more than 1.1 million registered commercial and private drones in the United States.

• In Europe, authorities aim to segregate drones from other types of aircraft. But in the U.S., safely integrating them into the national airspace is the FAA's goal.
• The FAA won't directly manage individual drones, though, which is why a drone traffic management system is needed.

What to watch: With all these new aircraft elbowing their way into the airspace, the FAA has a lot of work to do.

Editor's Note: This story has been updated with additional industry comment.

The Trump administration's freeze on foreign aid threatens to derail global efforts to fight disease outbreaks, counter terrorism, and provide humanitarian assistance to people affected by conflict.

Why it matters: President Trump's desire to shape an "America first" foreign policy — which was also a focus of his first term — could alter America's posture on the world stage and impact communities around the world.

• The U.S. government is the single largest humanitarian donor in the world, according to the United Nations.
• The foreign aid freeze undermines the U.S.' standing as a "reliable and credible partner" for its allies when they face crises, Michelle Strucke, director of the Humanitarian Agenda and Human Rights initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told Axios.

Driving the news: The State Department issued the freeze on all foreign assistance for 90 days last week, effectively implementing an executive order signed by Trump on his first day in office.

• The freeze also includes a review of all federal assistance programs to ensure they align with Trump's foreign policy agenda.
• The only initial exemptions were for emergency food programs and military aid to Israel and Egypt were exempted from the freeze, per AP.

Zoom in: Amid widespread confusion and upheaval across the humanitarian sector, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that he had signed an additional waiver for "life-saving humanitarian assistance."

• The waiver signed Tuesday claimed that the exemptions would apply to "core life-saving medicine, medical services, food, shelter, and subsistence assistance."
• It specified that it would not include areas targeted by the Trump administration, such as "activities that involve abortions, family planning conferences … gender or DEI ideology programs, transgender surgeries, or other non-life saving assistance."

Between the lines: Despite the State Department's efforts to clarify the terms of the freeze, confusion persists among international aid workers.

• Many humanitarian organizations are still seeking clarity on what qualifies as "life-saving" assistance, the Washington Post reported.
• Asia Russell, executive director of Health GAP, an advocacy organization focused on HIV treatment that collaborates with groups impacted by the freeze, told Axios the new waiver was "meaningless" and that "massive disruptions are still in effect and threatening literally millions of lives."
• "People are right to be confused, because there's only been a two paragraph communication," she said, denouncing the lack of guidance of how to implement the waiver in practice.
• Even once a guidance is issued, the chaos is likely to continue. "When you trigger massive ... programs to fire their staff, they can't start back up again overnight," Russell noted.

The State Department did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment.

What is foreign assistance?

Foreign assistance is a conduit for helping the U.S. achieve its foreign policy goals.

• This foreign aid is often distributed by the government in the form of grants to support projects implemented by NGOs, businesses, foreign governments, or even U.S. government agencies, per a Nov. 2024 report from the Congressional Research Service.
• Foreign assistance can also come in the form of direct budget assistance — essentially, cash — to foreign governments and multilateral organizations, like the UN, per the report.

By the numbers: The U.S. spent roughly $70 billion in foreign assistance in the 2022 fiscal year, the latest year for which comprehensive data is available, the CRS report stated.

• This accounted for about 1% of the total federal budget.

What kinds of humanitarian aid is included?

U.S. foreign assistance is critical to sustaining a plethora of humanitarian and relief efforts around the world.

• In 2024, the U.S. provided more than 40% of the UN's humanitarian aid budget.
• Foreign assistance grants are also critical to sustaining the work done by public health organizations and demining organizations.

The big picture: In the wake of the freeze, public health partners and contractors that work with the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) were ordered to halt the supply of critical drugs for the treatment of HIV, malaria and tuberculosis as part of the freeze, Reuters reported.

• This includes programs like the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), created by former President George W. Bush.
• The State Department's backpedaling with the issuance of a humanitarian aid waiver has still led to disruptions for PEPFAR, with many health clinics in southern Africa remaining closed amid the confusion, the New York Times reported.
• For some clinics, there has been "absolute chaos" around the dispensing of HIV-related medications and the processing of blood samples, Russell noted.
• Former USAID official Atul Gawande warned in an X post Saturday that the freeze would do "serious damage to the world and the U.S.," noting that the freeze would impact global efforts to fight Marburg virus, monitor bird flu outbreaks, and eradicate polio.

What else does foreign assistance cover?

Some U.S. foreign assistance falls outside of the scope of traditional humanitarianism.

• Charles Lister, director of the Middle East Institute's Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism programs, pointed out in an X post Monday that the freeze would also impact security at camps in northeast Syria where ISIS members and their families are held.
• In the wake of the aid freeze, some camp guards stopped showing up for work. The State Department quickly worked to push through an exemption and resume funding Tuesday, Lister posted on X.
• "We narrowly escaped disaster and it just shows this team has no idea what they're doing," an unnamed U.S. official told Politico.

State of play: Counterterrorism is an "objective of a significant amount of U.S. foreign assistance," Strucke told Axios.

• Foreign assistance can also include funding for counternarcotics operations in places like Colombia, an initiative that the first Trump administration prioritized, she added.
• Cutting off funding for such operations could lead to increased drug trafficking, including into the U.S., she noted.
• For Ukraine, while the freeze doesn't impact U.S. military aid, it could hit funding for humanitarian assistance, such as for programs that promote accountability for Russian war crimes, Strucke noted.

Go deeper: Federal funding freeze sparks health care chaos

New data on Friday gives the best snapshot yet of where economic conditions stand before a potential continentwide trade war.

Why it matters: If tariffs prove disruptive to growth, the U.S. is starting from a position of strength — unlike other major economies — which might cushion the blow of tariffs better than otherwise would have been the case.

• The risk, however, is an interruption of Americans' economic gains in recent years, while making inflation a longer-term feature of the economy.

Driving the news: The latest economic data supports the narrative that the economy came into 2025 with momentum. But inflation still looked sticky, as previewed in Thursday's GDP report — a concern for the many economists who believe tariffs will make above-normal price pressures harder to beat.

• For the third month, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index — which strips out food and energy prices and is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve — didn't budge.
• It rose 2.8% in the 12 months through December, above the Fed's 2% target.
• By a different measure, however, inflation looks more benign: Core PCE rose 2.2% on an annualized basis in the previous three months, down from 2.6% in November.

Between the lines: Consumer spending was solid, rising 0.7% in December, or 0.4% in real terms.

• Still, that jump outpaced the rise in incomes: The personal saving rate was 3.8%, down 0.3 percentage point from November and the lowest level in two years.

Flashback: Fed officials were focused on preserving economic growth during the Trump 1.0 trade wars. This time, the economy is holding up, even under the weight of higher interest rates. There is also a new variable: too-high inflation.

• Fed chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference earlier this week that might play a role in how tariffs land on the economy and whether they result in price hikes.

What they're saying: "We've just come through a high inflation period, and you can argue that both ways: you can say that companies have figured out that they do like to raise prices — but we also hear a lot from companies these days that consumers have really had it with price increases," Powell said.

• "There are lots of places where that price increase from the tariff can show up between the manufacturer and the consumer," he added. "Just so many variables."

The intrigue: In a speech Friday morning, Fed governor Michelle Bowman did not mention Trump's trade threat. But she did warn about upside risks to inflation, noting that global supply chains remain "susceptible to disruption."

• Bowman raised the possibility that interest rates might not be high enough to restrict the economy and cool inflation.
• "In light of the ongoing strength in the economy and with equity prices substantially higher than a year ago, it seems unlikely that the overall level of interest rates and borrowing costs are exerting meaningful restraint," Bowman said.

What to watch: Trump is threatening to impose tariffs on a wide scale Saturday, another key difference between his first White House stint.

• Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday that he plans to move forward with 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. It's unclear whether they will go into effect right away or exclude any imports.
• Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says the nation will hit back.

The bottom line: Trump is at the helm of a different economy now. If his trade threats do materialize, the effects are unpredictable.